Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia Ministry of Water. Irrigation and Energy Add*s Ababa
Ethiopia
DABUS IRRIGATION DEVELOPMENT FEASIBILITY STUDY AND DETAIL DESIGN PROJECT
Volume - IV
Part      VI      -      Market      Opportunity Study Final Report
January, 2015
Water Works Design and Supervision Enterprise
P.O,Box. 2561
Tel + 251 11 661 45 01'
Fax + 251 11661 D8 98
Email w w d s e@eihione et
Sob Marley Avenue.
Addis Ababa
EthiopiaMinistry of Waler. Irrigation and Energy
Dabus Irr gallon Study and Design Project ___________
Volume V - Part VI Market Opportunity Study final Report
in on
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Dabus Irrigation Study and Design Project
Market Opportunity Study Final Report
January, 2015
Issues and Revision Records
This document has been prepared for the tilled project or named part thereof and should not be relied upon ex used for any other project without an Independent check being carried oul as to its suitability and prior written authority  of WWDSE being obtained WWDSE accepts  no responsibility  or liability  for the consequence of this document being used tor a purpose other than lhe purposes (or which it was commissioned, Any person using or relying on the document for such other purpose agrees, and wil by sucn use Dr reliance be taken to confirm his agreement Id Indamn ily WWDSE tor all loss or damage resulting there from WWDSE accepts no ^sponslbility or liability for this document to any party other than ttio person by whom it was commissioned
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January 2015Ministry of Water, irrigation and Energy
Da bus Irrigator Study and Design Project CONTENTS OF FEASIBILITY REPORT
Volume IV - Pail VP _____  Market Opportunity Siu Jy Ana! Repeat
VOLUME-1
Main Report
VOLUME - II
Hydrology and Climate Study Report
VOLUME-III
Geological and Geotechnical loves ligation Report
Anne* 1 Geological Mapping
Annex-Il Geophysical Survey
Annex-!!! Geotechnical Pactual Report (Trench. Core Drilling, insitu Testing Test Pit and Laboratory Testing)
VOLUME - IV Sectoral Studies
Part 1                   Agronomy Study
Part II
Pari III
Part IV
Part V
Soil Sun/ey and Land Suitability Study Annex - Soil Survey Data
Livestock Study
Watershed Management Study Socio-economy Study
Part VI                  Market Opportunity Study
Part VII
Part VIII
Part IX VOLUME - V
Parti
Organization and Management Study Environmental Impact Assessment. Study Hydrogeology Study
RAP and Infrastructure Study
RAP
Part II                   Infrastructure Study
VOLUME-VI
□am and Appurtenant Structures
Parti                    Feasibility Design Report
Annex-1. All Bm alive Dani Option Report
Part 11                  Drawings
VOLUME-VII
Pari I
Irrigation and Drainage System
Feasibility Design Report
Part 11
Drawings
VOLUME - VIII
Financial and Economical Analysis
VOLUME- IX
Er.gineenng Cost Estimate
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January, 2015Ministry of Waler. irrigation and Energy Dabus lr j«i! on -51udy and design Protect
Volume IV - Part VI Maikel Opportunity Sluiiy Final Report
Table of Contents
TABLE OF CONTENTS.«.................... .......... ........ ... ...................................................... ........ ■.......... ■■.....
LIST OF FIGURES................................................................ ............ ......................... >.................................. V
LIST OF TABLES.......................... . ........................... ................. ............................................. -..................... v
ABRVAlTION AND ACRONYMS......................... .......................................................................................... VI
EXUCUTIVE SUMMARY...................................................... .............. ................................. -........... -......... VII
1 INTRODUCTION....................................... .......... ........................................
.......................... 1
1 f              Background
, .     ....      ...................    .
2      METHODOI DCY
.............................. .......................................... ........ .
....................1
2
3. OVERVIEW OF PROJECT AREA...................... . ...................................... . ...........           ........................... 3
3.1     Location                  ................................................................ ...
............ 3
3.2       Population
........... ........................................................................... ......................3
3.3     Economic Activity ......... ........ ... ............ ............. ....... .............................. ..............6
3.31 Agriculture ...
.... ....... ................... ,..................... ................... ...
6
3 3.11 Crop Production............................................................... ..... ............................ ................. 7
3 3.12 Fruit and Vegetables .............................. .........................................  .      ...............................0
3 3.13 Animals Husbandry............................................................................................................... 13
332 Trade....................................................................... .................... ............................. 14
3.33 Urban ana Transportation Sector Development........................................... .
r w......... 14
3.3.4 industry .............................. ................... ................ ........ ........... ........ ,...............«„... ,...... 15
4.     MARKET DEVELOPMENT.......... ..............................„„...................... . ........ .........................................15
5.     INFRASTRUCTURAL FACILITIES................ ......... .............. ............................. ..... ............................10
6. MARKETING CHANNEL,
7.     MAJOR PLAYERS...
II.I4.H t« ri
B + 1+M ■■ ki
.19
20
7.1 Ethiopian Grain Trade Entlrprise.................... ................... ............... ,.....................20
7 2     The Ethiopia Commodity Exchange................................................... . .20
7 3    Ministry of Trade ... ........................ ....... ........... . ........... .................. ................ _2i
8.    AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS PRICING.................................................................................................22
9.     GLOBAL CEREAL DEMAND AND SUPPY ANALYSIS........................ .................................................25
9 1      World Cereal Trade   .................................................................................................................. 25
10.       CONCLUSION............................................................... . 35
REFERENCES........................ _............... ............... ............................................. . ......................................... £
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Dabus Irrigation Stud / and Design Project
Volume IV - Part VII Market Opportunity Study Final Report
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 3 1 Location Map of Dabus Irrigation Development Project...        ................... ........ 3
Figure 3 2: Sample Crops Grown in the Command Area........     ............................ ...
6
Figure 3 3. Crop Production (In quintal) in the period 2008 -2010 Figure 3 4 Cultivated Land of Fruits in 2003 EC. ...
Figure 3.5. Traditional Gold Minrng m Asosa Zone
.......... .
............................... ........... 9
.......................... ..14
8
Figure 4.1: Local Market In Asosa Town
Figures*: Average Price of Vegetables 
Figure 8 2: National Average Producers' Price of Fruits .. Figure 9.1 Wir'd Cereal Export and Import Forecast
...... .......................................... 17
...... ................................... 23
....................... .................. 24
............. .................................. 32
Figure 9 2 Ethiopia's Cereal Export Forecast in tones ............................................................. 32
Figure 9.3 World Cereal Import Export in 2010                  —.............................. . .... .33
LIST OF TABLES
Table 31 Population Si/e by Sex 2012..         ....... .............................................. 4
Table 3 2. Population Projection for Asosa Zone .... ...................... ..... ............... ................ 5
Table 3 3 Area under Cultivation Yield and Production of Major Crops for 2000/09 - 2010/11
(2001 - 2003) Main (Meherj Season Ethiopia** ....................... .......... ...... 7
Table 3.4 Estimates of Cultivated Area for Permanent Cfops for Meher Season of Private
Holdings In ** Ethiopia 2008/2009-2010/2011................. ........................................... B
Table 3 5: Quantity of Export by Commodity Group (ton) ............................... ..................... .,...9
Table 3 6 Value of Export by Commodity Group ('000 Birr)..................................... ...................10
Tabic 3 7 Cultivated Area of Vegetables for ‘Meher Season of Private Holdings in ** Ethiopia
2008/2009 -2010/2011...   ...................................
.       ......         ............. 11
Table 3.8 Cultivated Area of Fruits for Meher Season of Private Holdings in ” Ethiopia
2Q0B/20D9-2010/2011................. ............... ............... .................... ......................... 12
Table 3 9 Forecast of Number ol Establishments.......... ......................... ..................... ........ 13
Table 3 10. Number of Establishments by Ownership. 2007/8(2000 E C) ... .
.......... 13
Table 3 11- Livestock Population in Asosa Zone.............. ....................................................... ...13
Table 3 12 Education Facility in Asosa Zone........... ........................ ........................................ 15
J able 0 i Annual Average Producers' Prices of vegetables Products in Rural Areas 
of Regions (July 2011 -June 2012) in Birr.... ........... ................... ........................ ......22
Tab^e 8.2: Annual Average Producers' Prices of Fruits Products in Rural Areas of
Regions (July 2011 -June 2012) in Birr.......      .... ...... .............. ,        .................... 23
Table 9 1. Volume of total cereal trade „......... ............ ......................................... .......... _....... ....25
Table 9.2 Summary of Cereal Import ....... . ........... ..................................... ....... ......... ............. 28
Table 9-3: Summary of Cereal Export..................... .............................. . .......... ..................... -,.,29
Table 9.4 Voiume of total Cereal Import in *000 tones ..... ........................ ............................... 30
Table 9.S Cereat Import Forecasts in thousand tones...... . ...... ,............................................... 31
Table 9.6:  Cereal Export Forecast in 000' tones..................................................................... 31
Table 9.7  Cereal Import and Export Forecast for Ethiopia »n thousand tones.......................  33
Table 9.8  Volume of total cereal export......... .....................................................................     33
Table 9 9  Top Cereal Producers and their Productivity......
34
Table 9.10 VAxid Meat Production ........ ............................................................... ............. ...... , 36
r
Table 9.11  World Meat Production..................... ................ ...... ................... ...............................39
Table 9J2:  World Dairy Production...................................................................................        39
Table 9 13: Summary of World Dairy Production....................................................................    43
Table 9 14. Summary of World Milk Production......................................................................   43
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January. 2015Ministry of Water, Irrigation arnl Energy
Dabus Irrigaiiori Sludv and Leslgn Project
ABRVA1TI0N AND ACRONYMS
Volume IV - Part VII Market Opportunely Study Final Report
AZFEDO                    Asos a Zone Finance and Economic Dcvelocment
CSA
Central Statistical Agency
ECX
Ethiopian Commodity Exchange
EIA
Environmental Impact Assessment
EWWDSE
Ethiopian Waterworks Design and Supervision Enterprise
FAO
Food and Agricultural Organization
GTP
Growth and Transformation P(an
ha
Hectare
KII
Key Informants Interview
MoWE
Ministry of Water and Energy
Qut
Quintal
TOR
Terms of Reference
VWVDSE                   Waterworks Design and Supervision Enterprise
NBE
National Bank of Ethiopia
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January. 2015Ministry of Water. Irrigation ar J Energy Dabus Iffiga1in«i Study and Design Project
EXUCUTIVE SUMMARY
Volume IV Part VII Market Opporlunity Study Final Report
Dabus  Irrigation  Development  Project  is  planned  to  be  implemented  in  Asossa  Zone, Benishangul Gumuz Region around 687 km road distance from Addis
Desk  research, primary  and secondary  data collection using questioner, key  inlorrnant interview and physical observation are the methodology  applied for this  market opportunity study
Review  of  previous  works  on  Dabus  basin  development  indicating,  net  command  area  of Dabus Irrigation Development Project is 10.000 ha
As  a necessary  pre condition for development of Dabus  Irrigation Project, this  market opportunity  study  has  teen conducted to identify  market opportunities  for agricultural production from the command area
The  study  toed  to  envisage  local  as  well  as  global  aspects  of  marketing  of  agricultural products analyzing national and international data
Based on data of CSA (2007), Asosa Zone where Dabus Irrigation Development Project is located has a total population of 33S,4B1.
Agriculture  (with  mixed  farming)  is  found  to  be  the  main  economic  activities  of  the communities living around Dabus Irrigation Development area.
The  major  cereal  crops  grown  in  the  command  are  includes  but  not  limited  to  sorghum, maize and Teff.
Among fruit group, mango is found to be widely grown fruit in the command area of Dabus Irrigation Development Project
Regarding livestock development, goat, cattle, sheep, poultry are the preferred one for the command area Of which goats, poultry and donkey dominate the project area as they are relatively resistant livestock disease of the area.
There  are  as  many  local  markets  in  Dabus  Irrigation  Development  command  area,  which could be developed further in the future.
Infrastructure facilities  are important for market development. In this  regard, infrastructural development condition of Asosa Zone where Dabus Irrigation Development are found to be encouraging.
Ethiopian Gram Trade Enterprise, Ethiopian Commodity  Exchange and Ethiopian Commodity Exchange Authority are found Io be among the major players in the agricultural marketing in Ethiopia.
The project is found to be important in realizing agricultural led industrialization policy and strategy of the Government. As well as it will contribute for food security realization in the region and in the country at large.
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January, 2015Ministry of Waler. Irrigation and Energy Dabus Irrigation Study ard Design Project
1.      INTRODUCTION 1.1    Background
Volume IV - Pan VII Market Opportunity Study Final Report
This Marketing study for Dabus Irrigation Development Project is one of the requirements for preparation of engineering design as well as feasibility study ol the project Taking this in to account. Waler Works  Design and Supervision Enterprise (VVWDSE) has  launched this market opportunity study for the agricultural products that are planning to De produced from irrigation command area of the project
Professional practiced methods of market opportunity studies have been applied for this market opportunity study considering the terms of reference (TOR) prepared by the client of the project, Ministry of Water Irrigation and Energy.
Previously conducted studies documents on Dabus river basin are lhe basis of this market study.
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January, 2055Ministry ol Water, Irrigation and Energy Dabus Irrigation Study and Design Project
2. METHODOLOGY
Volume IV - Part VII Market Opportunity Sludy Final Report
The methodology that is aoplied for this market opportunity study includes the following: Literature Review
Desk  research  on  available  literatures  on  Dabus  River  basin  development  have  been conducted and ncorporated *n the study
Secondary Data
Secondary  data  has  been  collected  from  institutions  (at  zonal  level)  in  the  project  area through designing questioners.
Physical Observation
Overall physical observation of the project area has  been undertaken and pictures  have taken. Among physically  observed data, market prices  of agricultural products  in local markets could be mentioned.
Key Informant Interview
Key informant interview (Kll) with officials in each institution (at zonal level) has made and necessary inputs have been incorporated.
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3. OVERVIEW OF PROJECT AREA 3.1    Location
Vorurne IV Part VH Market Opportunity Study ^-nal Report
The irrigation project command area is located at Asosa Zone on both banks of Dabus River, in Menge woreda (Belafida Fudindu Shaga demazin. AL Hammer and Signor Kebeles) at the left bank and Oda Bildigilu woreda (Betfudi, Belargaro, Gambela and Zumba) at the right bank. It touches  Eda Dabus  kebele of Sambasi Woreda and, Dabus  Atimbako ana Mirgufude Kebeles of of Asosa Woreda
Figure 3.1: Location Map of Dabus Irrigation Development Project
3.2   Population
According to Central Statistical Agency, Asosa zone, where the irrigation development proiecl planned to be implemented has a total population of 388,481 of which 48 9% female and 51 1% male Percentage share of population of Asosa zone in Bemshangul-Gumuz Region accounts 39.6 percent
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Table 3.1: Population Size by Sex 2012
Volume IV • Part VII Market Opportunity Study Final Report
Region, Zone and Wereda          Male                          Female
Asosa Zeno
198,677                   189,904
Total
388431
benishangul Gumuz Region
499.004
481,000
982,004
Source: OSA 2007
Population projection has  been made for Asosa zone using the national estimate annual average growth rate for rural population 2,23%. Accordingly, the projection result is presented with the help of table 3 2. Based on the result population of Asosa zone projected to be 648,313 in 2030, of which 51 1% male and 43 9% female
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January. 20ISTable 3.2: Population Projection for Asosa Zone
SPOT
IMI
2QW             3010
Mil             1DU
KI 4            2015           2010          2C1T          2fi11           2011
2P?3            2024           2D25
.
—T
J0J7            34M             3021            jaw
ill 177         203.1 B7
wrm      113.453
11TII3
2U.lt J
242.Ill     240 111         mtn            2M.U4
2020
IM.411
w
MpI.
*
^_Tr1*I
>03 SC-0
11 0,144       317,141
1}4 *$■
r.i ?■&*
1*4,DM
1S1.«^
2D2JM        207 513
III 112
2013 2 IF, 120 21 G.177
J1LH3          217 n
221,070 2J1 171
231 tn     237 111      <42,570      241,540
2S3.E34
2021
III 4F* 119,311
mi
IFF 100 2H,#flJ
;m.ui       303,1*1
no :og
ill 111
311,197
J4B.411
317 »t      *01.1 M
415.15:1     424.72G
4M MM         *** CU      *34,111      14* 113
4T4I24       411 All     <96,4*1        MT.17*      511.325
5M.031
Sil.102
213 H til     410 11 1       111 IM 171.Ill         2^ 211        703 111
! 11,042 117 Ml MO MT
211 U5
■H       4413.111      134,Ml
£41 111
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3.3    Economic Activity
Volume IV - Part VI Market Opportunity Slutty Final Resort
In  this  section  maior  economic  activities  iri  the  command  area  nt  Dabus  Irrigation Development project planned lo be implemented are considered
3.3.1 Agriculture
Agriculture is considered to be the main source of income of communities in the command area of Dabus Imgation Development project as wen as most of population m Asosa Zone. The farming system practiced in the area is mixed farming The major crop grown around the project area includes but not limited to Maize Sorghum and Teff From oil seed group (Niger seed/noug sesame and ground nut), from pluses  group (hancot-bean, chickpea and soybean) From root group (sweet-potato and cassava), from spice group (ginger, black cumin and black pepper); from vegetable group (onion, garlic, pepper potato, pumpkin and okra); from fruit group (mango, papaya, banana avocado, guava and citrus), and from forage group (grasses legumes and fodder trees) crops. Based on data from Asosa Zone Finance and Economic Development Office (AZFEDO), major crops and livestock diseases of the area are Akemchira and Abasenega respectively Among problems of farmers lack of agricultural inputs and credit scheme could be mentioned Average farm land holding per house nold in the area is estimated to be 1 hectare Average crop production per farmer is 10 quintal Estimated number of farmers that have access to extension service is 16,000 Hides and skin supplying to local market (from the Zone) are estimated to be 1000 and 300 per month respectively
Figure 3.2: Sample Craps Grown in the Command Area
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Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Energy Dabu* Irrigation Siudy and Design Project
3.3.1.1         Crop Production
Volume IV - Part VI Market Opportunity Study Final Report
Dala on crop production in Meheri season of Ethiopia is presented with lhe help of table 3.3 In (he period 2003/09-2010/2011, 477.9 million quintal of cereals was produced from the cultivated land size 2.4 million hectare. Land arcduclivity in the periods is estimated to be 198 quintal per ha. Similarly, in the same period 19 3 million quintal of oil seeds have been produced from the cultivated lard size 2 4 million ha Land productivity  of oil seeds production over the period is estimated to be 8 quintal per ha Volume of pulses production in the peuod 2008/09 2010/2011 was 24 2 million quintal from 4.4 million ha cultivated land wilh iand productivity 5 quintal per ha.
Relying on this analysis and assuming that all the command irrigation ’and size of 12,215 ha will allocate for ce^eai production, 2.4 million quintal will be produced from one production season in command area.
Table 3.3: Area under Cultivation, Yield and Production of Major Crops for 2008/09 -
2010/11 (2001- 2003) Main (Meher) Season Ethiopia**
I
----------
2008/09
2009/2010
2010/2011
Crop
Typo
Cereals
Oil Seeds
Area (M
Production
(qt)
Area (ha)
Area(ha)
Production
(qt>
9.770.118
144.964,059      9,233,025 14
Production
(qtl
155,342.279 88
9.690,733 96
177,613365.64
855,147.50     6,557,044 20      760,915 89
6.436,143.96
774.529 55
6.339.987,49
Pufses       1.585.236       19.646.301         1,489,303.45
18.980.47257
1,357.522 38
19,531.935.01
Other
Crops 
(Sugar cane)
15.601 73       5,594 040.B0      1B.90B42
6,724.393.51
23,341 51
11,877.738 33
Source: CSA. 2007
Relying on the same data in table 3.3, cereal crop production has been gown at (he rate of 10.7% over lhe period 2008/09-2010/2011. Whereas oil seeds and pulses has been grown at lhe rale of -1.7% and -0.3% respectively over the period under consideration.
Cultivated land for cereal crops have been grown al the rate of 5.1% over the period 2008/09-2010/2011, Similarly, cultivated land for oil seeds and pulses has been grown at the rale of -4.8% and -7.5% respectively over the same period under consideration.
Crop production in the country for lhe period 2008 - 2010 is depicted with lhe help of figure 3 1. and based on the figure; il is possible to say cereal is the major crop in Ethiopia followed by pulses and oil seeds
'Waler Works Design and                                                   7 Supervision Enterprise
January, 2015Ministry of Water. Irr nation ind Energy Dabus Irrigation Study and Design Project
130.CKM.000 2.GO.i?0O 0&0 -
r
140 000.000
12 0.0 00. DOO j 100,000,000
30.00j DOO - G 0.000 000 40.000.ODO 70.DGO.ODO
D ---
Volume IV' — Part V Ma'ket Opportunity Sludy F nal Report
b ri‘u‘iil'i BLlitSn.-ip.
Pulses
2008                    20DrJ
.’U Id
Figure 3.3: Crop Production (in quintal) in the period 2008 -2010
3.3,1.2        Fruit and Vegetables
Fruit and vegetable products demand of the country is growing from lime to time and recently the prices of these products revealing an increasing (rend
In the country, recently, there are only few suppliers of processed fruit and vegetable for export and for local markets.
For further analysis on demand, analysis on cultivated area for permanent crop (where fruit production exists) is taken in to consideration. Accordingly, the following data from the CSA has been laken and the analysis result is presented as follows
Table 3 4 Estimates of Cultivated Area for Permanent Crops for Meher Season of
Private Holdings in "Ethiopia 2008/2009 - 2010/2011
Total cultivated Area (in hectare)
Crop Name                                   2001    % share
2002    % share
2003     % share
Permanent Crops                   906,518
100.0%
54.647 7.212
100.0%
Avocados
5,067
0.6%
Bananas
3 2%
83.418 100.0% 63.086 83.7%
5694            9.0%
31.886
Guavas
29 064
1.320
0 1%           29,409          46.4%
1 835
13.2%
58.3%
3.4%
Lemons
’ Mangoes
754
6,051
0.1%            1.944            3.1%
496
0.7%
753           1.2%
Oranges
2440
0.3%
8 630          13.6%
7,513
3,239
Papayas
3.254
3.471 ,          5.5%
2 239
Pineapples
40
0 4%
0.0%
3.M7             4.8%            236
Stimulant Crops
Ghat
563.850 138.145
100.0%
1.091,627     100,0%
724,936
0.9%
13.7%
5.9%
4 1%
0 4% 100.0%
249%
557 013          51.1%
204,649
Coffee                               391.296          70 7%
138,811           12.7%
Hops (Gesha)
Other pcrmaneni
24 409            4.4%        395,003          36.2% 304,679        100.0%        414,540        100.0%
498.818
21.663
2B.2% 68.8%
3.0%
Ensel
278,668          91.5%
0.0%
Sugan Cane
15,602             5.1%
95.4%
338,121 100 0% 301,979 89.3%
23.342           6 9%
Others                                 10,409             3.4%
395.632 18,908
4.6%
12.300           3 8%
Source: CSA, 2007
"excluding nomadic area
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January, 2015Ministry of Waler, Irrigation and Energy Dabus Irrigation Study and Design Project
Volume IV- Pail VI Market Opportunity Study Final Report
Relying on table 3 4, percentage share of cultivated area of Bananas (in permanent crops) has been higher followed by Mangoes and Avocados in year 2003 E C In the same year the share of least cultivated tend has  been registered by  Pineapples  (0.4%). In general, cultivated land for permanent crop revealing a declining trend over the period 2001 — 2003 EC
Data on cultivated land for fruit crop in year 2003 E,C. is depicted with the help of T’.gure 3.5, and based on the figure the largest cultivated land has been covered for Bananas plantation followed by Mangoes and Avocados.
Cultivated land
Figure 3.4: Cultivated Land of Fruits in 2003 E.C.
Further analysis on fruit export of the country during the period 2000 -2002 EC. has been made using the CSA's national level data. The data is presented with the help of table 3.5. Based on (he table, fruit is categorized under vegetable products export group. Accordingly and generally, export quantity of vegeiable products has been revealing an increasing trend over the period 2000 -2002 E.C. The largest percentage share of export has been registered with export of edible vegetables followed by oil seeds and coffee in 2002 E C.
Table 3.5: Quantity of Export by Commodity Group (ton)
Description
200D
%
share
2001
%
share
2002
%
share
Growth
rote
Vegetable Products
Jton):
649 243.-4
100 0%
766.755.6
100.0%
961.8350
100.0
%
21.7%
Live ireos S other plants; bulbs, roots 
□nd the like; cut flowers & ornamental foliage
25.626.8
3.9%
32.550 0
4.2%
38 497.
4.0%
22.6%
Edible vegetables
□nd certain cools and tubers
235.596 3
36 3%
249,525.8
32 5%
322.1330
33.5%
16.9%
Edible fruits ft nuts;
7,829.5
1_2%_
.9,46b 1
12% ; 12.356 0
1 3%
25 6%
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January. 2015Ministry of Water, Irrigallon and Energy
Dabus Irrigation Study ard Design Profecl
Volume iv - Pari VI
Market Opportunely Study F nal Report
Description
%
2000 2001
share
2002
%
share
Growth
rale
peel of crtrus fruit or melons
Cnflee, tea male S spices
194.902.0      3C C%      14G 312.0
19.1%
226.2210
Cereals
57.2
0.0%
59,217.0
23.5%
6 2%
Products of the
I milling industry, malt starches, Insulin, Mheal gluten
2406 -1          0 4% 289.2          0.0%
7.7%
3 BS 0% ,
205.6
0.0%             629.0        0 1%
52 9%
Oil seeds £ oleaginous fruits; industrial or medical or medicinal plants; straw Stodder
172.106.6
26 5%      324 565 2
42 4%
298.302.0
31.0%
31 7%
Lac Gums re5!ns and
■nther vegelabtes saps & extracts Vegetable plaiting materials: vegetable products not elsewhere specified or included
3,672.4          0 6%
3 607.7
0.5%
4.472 0
0.5%
10 4%
6.754 2          1 0%
64.oj
0.0%
6.0
0.0%
-97 0%
Source: OSA & compulation
Considering the growth rate of vegetable export group, the largest growlh rate has been revealed with cereals followed by products of milling industry products & oil seeds group over the period 2000 -2002 E C.. Edible fruit & nute has been grown at the rate of 25.6% over the period 2000-2002 E C.. Vegetable products (in general) have been grown at the rale of 21.7% over the period under consideration. The decline growth has been revealed with vegetable plaiting materials group (-97%)
For further analysis  on value of export of vegetables  in Ethiopia, the following data is presented with the help of table 3.6. Based on the table, value of export of vegetable products has been revealing an increasing trend and reaching Birr 23.7 billion in year 2002 E C Similarly export value of edible vegetables and edible fruits has been reached 5.7 Birr billion and 65.5 million respectively in the fiscal year 2002 E.C.
Table 3.6: Value of Export by Commodity Group fOOD Birr)
Description
2000
%
share
2001
%
share
2002
%
share
Growth
rate
Vegetable Products (D00 Binj:
11,776,511.6
100 0%
I4H232 ?64 9
100.0%
23,737,801.0
100 0%
42.0%
Live trees & other plants- bulbs, root's and the like; cut flowers & ornamental foliage
1,200,099 4
10.2%
1.749,269J
12.3%
2,327,522.0
9.8%
39.3%
Edibie vegetables and certain roots and
tubers
2.163,817.9
18.4%
3 415.122 2
24,0%
5 763 009.0
21 3%
63.2%
Edible fruits & nuts peel of citrus fruit ar
melons
29.903 0
0.3%
33.653,5
Q.2%
55,469.0
0 3%
47 7%
Coffee, tea. mate &
spices
5,515,014 7
46. B%
4.447.596 3
312%
10,256,198.0
43 2%
36.4%
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Description                        2000
%
share
2001
%
share
2002
share
Cereals
7.977.0          0.1%                     338.9
0 0%
1 1%
Products or the milling
■nduslry; man.
starches, nsuhn,
wheat gluten
2.769.6          0 0%                 3.800 1
0 0%
255,027 0 11 BC6.0
Growth
rate
465>l%
0 0%
106 5%
Oil seeds 4 oleaginous 
fruits; Industrial or
medical or medicinal
Tants straw 4foddeT 2.487,393.7 21.1%
4.459.151 4
31 3%
4.868 487 0
20.5%
39 9%
Lac  Gums  resins  and
other vegetables  saps 
& extracts
73 433 5          0.7%
122,436 9
0 9%
608 4
□ 0%
190,164 0
119.0
0 8%
55 7%
Vegetable plastic materials, veg el able products not elsewhere specified or included
290 212 8          2.5%
0.0%
-9BD%
Source: CSA & computation
Value of vegetable products export has been grown al rate of 42% over the perrod 2000 — 2D02 E C. The largest value of export growth has been registered by cereals followed by products of milling and edible vegetables during the period 2000 -2002 EC..
Further analysis  has  been conducted on the cultivated area of vegetables  rn ’he country during the period 2008/2005 - 2010/2011 Accordingly  data on cultivated land during the same period is presented with the help of table 3 7 Based on the table, cultivated land of vegetables  has  been grown at a decreasing rate (-11.6%) over the period under consideration.
Table 3.7: Cultivated Area of Vegetables for ‘Meher’ Season of Private Holdings in “
Ethiopia 2008/2009 -2010/2011
Cultivated Area in Hectare
Description
2001
2002
2003
Growth rate
Vegetables
162125
138393
126676
-11 6%
Lettuce
■
49
Head Cabbage
3400
2562
2138
-20.7%
Ethiopian Cabbage
33901
32782
29815
-6.2%
Tomatoes
5342
4953
5338 J
0.0%
Green Peppers
8581
7850
5789
-17.9%
Red Peppers
110406
89862
83416
-13.1%
Swiss Chard
243
227
130
-26 9%
Source: CSA and computation
These estimates could not be reported in this table because of high coefficient of variation
(i.e less reliable). However they are consolidated in the total estimates 
"excluding nomadic areas
Growth rate analysis has been conducted on cultivated land of fruit production during the period 2008/2009 - 2010/2011 Accordingly and based on data in table 3.8 cultivated land of fruit production has been grown at a rate of -75.4% over lhe period 2008/2009 - 2010/2011.
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Table 3.8: Cultivated Area of Fruits for Meher Season of Private Holdings in **
Ethiopia 2008/2009 -2010/2011
Description
2001
2002
2003
Growth rale
FrutVpermanenl
crops
906518
63418
54647
-75.4%
Avocados
5067
53086
7212
19.3%
Bananas
29054
5694
31886
4.7%
Guavas
1320
29409
1835
17.9%
Lemons
754
1944
496
-18 9%
Manges
6051
753
7513
11.4%
Oranges
2440
8630
3229
15 0%
Papayas
3254
3471
2239
-17 0%
Pineapples
40
3067
238
143.9%
Source: CSA and computation
"excluding nomadic areas
The largest growth of cultivated land has been indicated by Pineapples (143.9%) followed by Avocados (19.3%) and Guavas (17.9%) over the period 2003/2009 -2010/2011. The least growth rate of cultivated land has  been registered by  Lemons  ( 18 9%) over the same period.
Analysis  on establishment of fruits  and vegetables  processing industries  has  been made relying data of the CSA Accordingly  and based on data in table 3.10. number of establishment of manufacturing of dairy farm products are revealing an increasing trend as compared to manufacturing of vegetables and animal as well as produclion, processing A preserving of meat, fruit & vegetables in the manufacture of food products and beverage group in lhe country.
Relying on the same data in table 3.10; the growth rate of production, processing & preserving of meat, fruit 3 vegetables is estimated to be - 8.7% over the period 2007/8- 2009/10. This means is that this manufacturing sector is increasing at a declining rate.
Similarly, manufacturing of vegetables & animal has been grown at a declining rate of — 4.3% over the same period under consideration.
Manufacturing of dairy products in the country have been grown at a rate of 106.1% over the period 2007/0-2009/10.
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Table 3.9: Forecast of Number of Establishments
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Fiscal year |E.C)
Production crccessing & preserving of meal, fruit &
vegetables
Forecast
2003         2004      2005     2006     2007 9               8            8  _____/            6
Manufaclunnq of vegetables & animals
32
30 :       29
l Manufacturing □! Dairy Products
34
72
33
149
306
631      1300
Source: compulation
The forecast of production processing & preserving of meat, fruit & vegetables manufacturing for the period 2003 - 2007 EC. is indicating a decline trend and there would be 6 establishments in the fiscal year 2007 E.C,( Table 3.9).
Table 3 10. Number of Establishments by Ownership. 2007/8 (2000 E C)
Number of
Establishments
Number cl
Establishments
Number of
Establishments
Manufacture of Food
Products & Beve
2000
2001
2002
Public
Private
Total
Public
Private
Total
Public
Private
Total
Production. Processing & preserving of meat. Fruit & vegetables
3
9
12
3
10
13
2
B
10
Manufacturing of vegetables & animal
4
29
33
5
34
39
2
34
3G
4
4
5
5
1
34
Manufacturing of Dairy
Products
Source: CSA
3.3.1.3  Animals Husbandry
Based of data of AZFEDO, Asosa Zone has currently estimated number of cattle population of 138,000 Among livestock population found in the zone, the following could be mentioned
Table 3.11: Livestock Population in Asosa Zone
35
No
J
Types of Livestock
Estimated Number
1
Cattle
27,700
2
Sheep
23,700
3
Goats
31,600
Total
138,000
l_ . _____________
Source: Asosa Zone Finance and Economic Development Office
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Besides referring the livestock develooment study of the project, goat, cattle, sheep, poultry and donkey are the recommended live stocks for the command area Among these, goats poultry and donkey dominate the project area since they are relatively resistant to the most fatal livestock disease (trypanosomosis'i in the area
3.3.2 Trade
Trade is  one of economic activities  of Asosa zone where Dabus  Irrigation Development Project planned to be implemented During the study team visit of the local markets, both whole sellers and retailers are found in local markets in Asosa Zone
According to information from Asosa Zone Finance and Economic Development Office, in the Zone there are 33 hotels. 18 bars 36 grocery, 111 shops. 22 restaurants 56 snack, 230 textile shops. 16 pharmacy, 3 fuel station 31 grain shop. 19 beef shop. 38 whole sell shops. 39 bread shops and 21 metal shops
Gold  mining  and  trading  using  traditional  mining  method  is  among  economic  activity tn Asosa Zone
Figure 3.5: Traditional Gold Mining in Asosa Zone
3.3.3 Urban and Transportation Sector Development
Urban and transportation sector development are one of the basic conditions for market development
In Asosa Zone where this Dabus Irrigation Development located has electncity as well as telephone communication service. Education facilities are also available in the zone The Number and types of education facilities in the zone are presented with the help of the following table.
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Table 3.12: Education Facility in Asosa Zone
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Type of Education Facility
Num ber available
Kindergarten
74
Elementary school
19
Junior secondary school
55
Secondary school
6
College
4
Source: Asosa Zone Finance anc
Economic Development Office
Growth of urbanization due to increase m population in the country then in the region and Asosa zone is, no doubt, will bring about increase food consumption demand According to FAO. per capita food availability in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia are below the 2500 kcl/person/day threshold (FAO, 2013).
Transport facilities  are one of the drivers  of market development through mobilizing commodities  from produces  to final consumers. In this  regard, the growth of Iranspori facilities (from lime to lime) in Asosa Zone is found to be encouraging.
Availability of such transport facilities would assist mobility of production from the command irrigation area Io local markets in Asosa and nearby towns as well as market in Addis Ababa.
3.3.4 Industry
Indusirial activities are among recently growing activities in Asosa Zone According Io data from Asosa Zone Finance and Economic Development Office, currently. there are one heavy bamboo processing industry and lwo small scale industries (bamboo, and oil processing) in the Zone.
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4. MARKET DEVELOPMENT
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Local market development in nearby towns around the project area has been observed and market price data of different commodities has been collected Accordingly, the following prices of com mod i Les have been observed
Table 4.1: Local Prices of Agricultural Products
| Description
Price in Birr
Remark
Maize
0DO'9CO/qumtal
Teff
1800/quintal
Barely
flOWquinlal
Sorghum
800/quinlal
Wheat
1000/quintal
Seans
1500/qumtal
Flax
1200/quintal
Oman
1000/qumtal
Potato
SOOfquintal
Tomato
1500/qumtal
Garlic
9000/quinlal
Source: Local Market Observation
Maintenance of the local market areas would be good for local market development, For i m pie mentation of this the Municipality of Asosa town would play a dominant role
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Figure 4,1: Local Market in Asosa Town
The esta&l.shment of Ethiopia’s  Grain Trade Enterprise. Ethiopia Commodity  Exchange (ECX) and Ethiopia Commodity  Exchange Authority  have an important contnbution for marketing of agricultural products.
In  cereal  marketing,  the  marketing  cost  includes  but  not  limited  to  transportation  cost loading and unloading, brokerage fee, and storage cost.
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5.      INFRASTRUCTURAL FACILITIES
Road infrastructure is one of the key facifllies necessary for marketing of commodities In the zone where Dabus irrigation Development Project planned to be implemented road facilities such as
■   Asphalt road from Addis Ababa to Asosa town
■    All weather gravel road from Asosa town to irrigation command area are
available but this should be developed further in the Future
Transportation facility  is  also an important driver of marketing of commodities. Regarding thisr a number of transportation vehicles  are available in Asosa Zane where this  Irrigation development project planned to be implemented
Storage facilities  are Important for agricultural products  marketing In this  regard, it is important to encourage development of large storage facilities  in Asosa for agricultural products from Dabus Irrigation Development: Project.
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6. MARKETING CHANNEL
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Agricultural products  marketing channel in Asosa Zone is  include but not limited to involvement of producers, assemblers, wholesalers, retailers and consumers The marketing channel is presented with I he foliowing chart.
One of the risks that could be occurred for the smooth operation of marketing process is existence of information asymmetry. This  information asymmetry  occurs  mostly  between principal and agents Information asymmetry causes miss informing or information gap and would benefit middle men rather than farmers  (producers). Such a situation should be minimized and further control through using mass  Medias  of commodity  marketing ECX could be a good model in resolving existence of problems  of information asymmetry  in commodity trading. The other way of minimizing existence of information asymmetry is using blogging.
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7.     MAJOR PLAYERS
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Major players in agricultural marketing of the country includes but not limited to Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE), Ethiopian Commodity  Exchange (ECX and cthiopian Commodify  Exchange Authority  All of them are Government organizations  working for primarily agricultural commodities market stabilization
7.1 Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise
Based on information from website of EGTE the enterprise has been established in 1949 and reorganized in 1999 for the purpose of purchasing grain from local farmers and sell to both locally and export markets. The enterprise has ware house with a capacity of storing BOO 000 tons of grain together wilh fnghl transport facilities. It has 101 branches all over lhe country; of which ten of them in Addis Aoaba (VWWV,http77egtemis com, last visited, 21 November 2013)
72 The Ethiopia Commodity Exchange
The other player In agricultural marketing in the country is ECX. Based on review of its website, ECX is a new initiative for Ethiopia and the first of its kind in Africa. Its vision is to revolutionize Ethiopia’s tradition bound agriculture through creating a new marketplace that serves all market actors, from farmers to traders to processors to exporters Io consumers. ECX has been commenced its trading operation in 2008 ECX. is a marketplace, where buyers and sellers come together to trade, assured of quality, delivery and payment ECX has an integrated warehouse system Commodities are deposited in a warehouse operated by ECX in major surplus regions of the country (www.ecx.com.et).
Table 7.1: Location of ECX Warehouses
No
Location
Commodity Type
Capacity
Distance From Addis
Ababa
Coffee
Grain
Quintals
KM
1
Addis Ababa(Sarts)
X
X
300,000
-
2
Dire Dawa
X
50,000
515
3
Nazareth
X
165,000
90
4
Bure
X
135.000
410
5
Nekempte
X
100,000
330
6
Hurn&ra
X
300.000
938
7
Hawass a
X
200.000
273
B
Jimma
X
170,000
346
9
Bedel le
X
50.000
500
10
11
Drllai
X
280.000^
Glmkx
390
X
135,000
450
12
Gondar
X
200.000
738
13
Melema
X
240.000
880
14
Assossa
X
5C.000
685
15
Sodo
X
110,000
329
16
Bonga
X
110 000
450
Source; website of ECX
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7.3 Ministry of Trade
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The Ministry  of Trade also among other, to encourage domestic  market in the country. Based on information from website of the Ministry, I! was re established in 1995, with major responsibilities  among others, Io promote expansion of domestic  trade, create conducive condition to encourage expert of the country, establish foreign trade relation, etc.
Hence the establishment and operation of such institution at national level would be an important opportunity for expansion of trade and would be one of the means of alleviation marketing problems (if exists) from Dabus Irrigation Development Projects.
Table 7.2: Value of Major Export Items of Ethiopia
Particulars
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
Coffee
520.3
841
833.1
Crtseeds
350 5
326.6
472.3
Leather & Learner
Products
56.4
103 a
109.9
Pulses
130.1
137.9
159 7
Meat & Meal products
34
63.3
76.8
Frurts & vegetables
31.5
31 5
44.9
Live animals
907
147 9
207 1
Chai
209 5
238.3
240 3
Flower
170,2
175 3
197 0
Source: NBE. Annual Report
Based on data tn table 7.2 valiie of coffee export of
R
the country has been grown at the rate
of 25 6 % over the period 2009/10 — 2011/12; value of Oilseed export has been grown at the rate of 0.1% over the same period under consideration
Similarly, value of Leather & Leather products export has been grown at the rate of 0.6% over the period 2009/10 - 2011/12; Value of Pulses export of the country has been grown al the rale of 0 4% over the same period under consideration.
Value of Meal and Meat products, fruits and vegetables, live animals, chat and flower export has been grown al the rate of 2.9%. 6.4%, 0.1%, 0.5% respectively over the period under consideration
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8.     AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS PRICING
For price development of lhe project, national statistical data has  been taken in to consideration far the period July 2011 - June 2012. Accordingly and based on the data in Table 8 1 average national producers price of vegetables  is ranged from Birr 1.75 per kg (pumpkin) to Birr 33.52 per kg (Garlic) during the period July 2011 - June2012
Table 8.1: Annual Average Producers* Prices of vegetables Products in Rural Areas
of Regions (July 2011 -June 2012) in Birr
Average Price IHlrr.'fcg]
Urms
UWt
Tlgray
Al*r
Amhara
Oromlva
Somali
Strtllhangiu 1 Gvhwi
5NNP
Gam&eHa
Hariri
Din
Dx^-a
HiUonal
Awu-je
FUfopian
■Lite
1 PS
29
1 31
4.01
1 91
321
2D4
241
4.19
1.B7
2 IS
] 20
3 39
ittuoe
"
15 0 J
in
n 44
B7
t 41
5 B0
Sp'rnan^i
5.02
2.5
7 69
5 23
Carrbl
252
3,1
3.72
5 02
3 45
J 15
Tjrrjlc
5 59
4
3 az
6
5 »/
4 35
B 27
4 12
4 57
Okfi
3 75
w
5 29
5.B2
B
7M
6.34
7 12
4 12
6 52
GjiIi:
29 57
12.01
35.35
5 57
33 32
33.52
Pepper G'rf-
1.141
99
7 49
ta 67
5 54
a 7i
0
6 43
□rt3i?n Puhi
•«
.
2 74
i»
■ ■■
B21
□eel Rpcrt
■H
45
iti
2.72
3 04
3.05
CmiN ’inwer
2.27
2 26
Plrnfiliifi
3 &9
1.71
1 Bl
2.36
1 44
1 34
1 JS
Su^AT Cane
-
14
J
Zflf
■
2H
1 51 j            1 21
1.73”
Source: CSA Statistical Bulletin 552, August 2012
r
National average vegetables price data are depicted with the help of the following figure 8,1. Relying on the figure, the highest price has been associated with Garlic and the least price has been associated with Pumpkin during the period July 2011 - June 2012.
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Figure 8.1: Average Price of Vegetables
For similar analysis price data on fruits are taken in to consideration during the period July 2011 - June 2012 and presented with the help of table 8.2. Relying on (he data, national average price of fruits langed from Birr 1.35/kg (Cactus) to Birr 8.30 /kg (Grapes)
Table 8.2: Annual Average Producers’ Prices of Fruits Products in Rural Areas of Regions (July 2011 -June 2012) in Birr
Average Price
Hums
Onl?
Ater
Am bar a
□romiya
Somali
Btnlshangul Gumm
SNNP
GdrntHTtti
HJtarl
Dir? Dawa
National
Average
Banana
kg
7.4
7.36
3.37
6.45
3 72
3.13
3.31
4 47
j
3.61 i
Orange
9 32
6 33
3 07
395
3 53
3a
4 30
3 29
Lemon
-
5.09
4 99
5 03
4 6/
46
311
3 85
1 43
4.57
Mandarine
*
3.71
4 40
5 99
10
5.42
1 Papaya
-
76
296
5 33
322
250
1.80
0
3.05
3.75
Grapes
a. 33
63
Mang-a
-
896
BOB
3 32
379
4.50
3.35
5.77
6 03
4 13
5 75
4 09
2.12
B.81
4 57
1.73
3.75
AvtjcadO
-
a
4 39
4 35
4 31
4 13
4 37
Citron
-
5.93
3 39
22
25
4 54
Pine Apple
ii
6.31
CactuV Beie*
5
3.41
9 67
4 93
u
1tt
0 51
1.35
’I
, August 2012
The graph of national annual average producers' price of fruits is depicted with the help of the following figure 8 2. Based on the figure, the largest price of fruit has been revealed by Grapes fruit; and also the least price of fruit has been indicted on Cactus during the period July 2011 - June 2012,
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Average Price (Birr/kg)
Figure 8.2: National Average Producers' Price of Fruits
However, (he current situation in Addis Ababa is indicating that price of fruit and vegetable in mo$i areas is ranged from Birr 10-12 per kg and Birr5- 9 per kg
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9.     GLOBAL CEREAL DEMAND AND SUPPY ANALYSIS
Ip this section marketing aspects of cereal crops has been considered both at global as well as country level using internationally published FAO's data.
9.1 World Cereal Trade
Rased on dala in table 9.1, world's import of cereal has been 335 3 million tones while world's export of cereal 339.8 million tones m 2010. Percentage share of Africa from volume of import m 2010 was 19.8%. whtch was higher than the rest of world followed by Europe and East Asia O ASrrcan countnes, North Africa took the Lion's share of import of cereals in
f
2010. In Asian continent the largest share of cereal import registered by East Asia followed by west Asian countnes in 2010
Tabic 9.1: Volume of total cereal trade
Country
Thousand
tones
2000
Thousand
tones
200S
Thousand
tones
2009
Thousand
torn?*
2010
Thousand
tones
2000
Thousand
tones 
2008
Thousand
tones
2009
Thousand
tones
2010
World
271005
319404
327B76
335353
273000
318332
330201
339046
Alrita
45117
50730
63771
56374
2125
2710
3564
3621
Eastern
Africa
5169
7115
11?20
097H
370
571
342
040
Burundi
BO
29
67
54
0
0
0
1
Comoros
20
47
46
87
3
0
0
0
Djibouli
69
370
561
103
0
0
0
0
Eritrea
293
20ET
252
220
0
0
0
0
Ethiopia
1272
1424
2229
2134
4
2
0
59
Kenya
1155
1100
2711
1420
19
30
19
83
Madagascar
315
276
221
205
3
3
1
2
MdIaui
72
259
215
199
11
31
15
25
Mauritius
200
202
320
327
39
10
42
45
Mayotte
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Mozambique
426
714
1019
956
0
30
16
62
Reunion
0
b
0
0
0
0
6
0
Rwanda
41
S6
131
232
0
0
0
2
Seychelles
12
19
10
18
0
0
0
O
Somalia
261
642
611
363
0
0
0
a
Uganda
172
439
514
464
a
73
105
211
United Republic of Tanzania
546
540
951
1276
104
136
71
224
Zambia
69
40
70
17
20
238
71
Zimbabwe
109
125
652
1277
809
170“!
1
pi
Middle Africa
1669
“O'
2831
2M7
2828
1
An-gala
8j
541
940
r
12
5181
705d
0
1
Cameron
i
"1
397
058
907
779
1
1
0
Cenlral Africa Republic
41
6
32
42
40
0
0
0
0
Chad
51
144
193
184
0
0
0
Congo
210
0
97
234
202
b
1
4
5
Democratic
Republic al
the Conge
209
546
490
643
0
5
0
1
I
Waler Works Design and Supervision Enterprise
25
January, 2015Ministry of Water,
and Energy
Dabus Irrigation Slutty and Design Project
Cereals 
rmport
Volume IV Pari VI Market Opportunity Study Final Report
Export
Country         th Dina nd Thu us a ml
1 Thousand
tones 1 tone*
i ton^s
2000 2008
2000
| Equatorial
Gumea
14 |
30
Thousand tones 2010
25 29
Thousand
tones
2000
0
_
%L_ 0 0
Thousand ^Thousand tones I lores 
20-00             2009 0
l.
Thousand | tones 
2010
■■
| Gabon
1 SaoTome
and P*’ncipe
| Northern
| Africa
Algeria
107                169                150                145
14                  Tfl                  13                      o'                  01                  0
1L
2ft900 34595 34380 38934
779                $40—               915
r’..
502 1
7509              9112              7910              7930                    0                  12                    G
L
1 Egypt 9655 12357 14585 16790 395 323 774
1 L'bya 2719 2307 3t04 2904 1 a 4
Morocco
| South Sudan
Sudan
tt
5215              6127            ■Hl 5              5511                   96                   95                  ibo
—
0
353
0
122
—
Sudan 1313 *6321 2539 53 164 2
[ (farmer}
1 Tunisia 249^1 3059 •981 3252
Western
231                   45                  30
5
i
Sahara
Soul hern                     23 V
i Africa
I
3133              2919
1
29/3               k-827H      1285               1830
-
' Botswana
179               177                209                292                     3                    2                     7
--
12
1
1382
5
| Lesotho
I Namibia South Africa
.
1SS                        270
2®,              256
o”l
1s;
201 1              131 ,             161
1710              2302               2153 ’            2196
1
2
816
0
3
1279
0
1822 1376
Swaziland
■ Western 1 Africa
77
IB?
159
159
7062            11057
12366
12550
4
140
1
2C7
___
Benin 94 753J 714
| Burkina TflSO                 263
205|              375
649 1
355
1 Cote a Ivoire 747 1D9D 1665
Cape Veide                     64 |              ’.03                135
1387
84
266
2
59
3
33
11
38
065
143                 562 10                   35
127                1D4
Gambia 122 169 2ff?
Ghana 451 825 BD5
0
0
1
0
0
1
Guinea
Guinea-
Bissau
' Liberia
288 455
89                            32
685                     2                    0
403 971
434                     0
15
63
217                262                35?
°J 0
339
I
0
15
0
6
D
0
9
ID
0
T
. Mah
Mauritania
114
274
252 1              242 430                588 320                172 1
oi
214
00
13 I 4
2
441
325
0
0
0
(F
0
Niger
Saint Helena Ascension and Tristan da Cunha
| Senegal
257
0
0
30
3D
41
0
0
0
0
0O
794
142
1533 1332
746                135
12/3 I
1
371
1D4                   73
J Sierra Leona
-
142
0
0
ol
Togo
| Eastern Asia
96
52450
308
45938
153
128
31
31
0
32
47337            5208&            14524
2221               1749
2& ,
1671
China Hong Kung SAR
589 537
--------- to
616                  61>j        "‘ "V
r
25
1 China. Macao SAR
35
39
—--------.
0
37
China
■
9477              6947              9223
-b
/ "* /1
7¥ 170S 139953
K             39                   35
00 f^57             1419"
_
1314
Waler Works Design and Supervision Enterprise
26 .
January, 2015Ministry of Waler, Jrrig;al«on and Energy Dabus Irrigation Study and Des.qn Project
Volume IV - Part VI Mark el Opportunity Study Final Report
Cer&afs
Import
■
Export
Country
Thousand
tones
2000
Thousand
rones
2003
Thousand
tones
2009
Thousand
tones
2010
Thousand
tones
2000
Thousand
tones
2008
Thousand lories
2009
Thousand
tones
2010
Democratic
People's
Rcpubbc ol
Korea
2203
356
589
441
0
0
0
0
Japan
27012
254 50
25000
25604
<72
300
275
3111
Mongolia
253
324
299
160
0
0
0
0
Republic ol
tfurea
12601
12177
11573
13444
54
13
19
22
SOulh- Easlem Asia
17750
1B232
21317
25456
10333
16679
16995
17153
Brunei
51
40
49
50
0
0
5
0
C iirTibpdia
iTF1
42
35
96
7
31?
367
82
Indonesia
6863
5629
B152
3115
32
IBB
106
126
D
Lao  caple‘s Democratic Republic
16
29
53
52
1
127
23?
225
Malaysia
4099
4403
4&S6
5426
140
61
53
65
Myanmar
121
126
B7
212
399
360
400
156
Philippines
3799
4270
5311
4572
-1
20
16
22
Singapore
710
SM
588
639
57
112
95
124
Th inland
1100
1367
1629
2390
□207
10939
9752
9465
Timur-l este
45
20
15
12
0
0
0
0
Viet Warn
059
1502
2940
3885
3486
4740
5959
6086
Southern
Asia
16035
TB574
20449
15221
4929
10029
6350
10372
Alghantjlin
1178
2CM6
1457
BO3
0
0
0
0
Bangladesh
2490
4236
M27
4569
1
9
6
4
Bhutan
57
B
5
6B
9
0
D'
1
India
55
22
200
205
2022
64 99
5090
4869’
Iran (Islamic Republic of)
Pakistan
■——:--:----- Sn L-inka Armenia
9920
B96O
11195
BB7&
■ 1
162
&e
653
Maldives
35
-------------— 52
49
46
0
0
0
Neoai
0
203
134
150
254
0
5
54
0
105-4
1971
3174
261
2087
3205
2970
1029
4422
1144
1192
1137
2
149
Western Aua
135
31404
41096
390
42629
41269
3297
3470
5274
457
6303 1
416
-146
440
0j
0
; Azerbaijan
‘0
766
0]
tDB5
TSID
3
42
Bahrain.
123
1 1580
—x
_
134
19
143
ITS
6
Cyprus
0
655
569
--------------- zrr\r ■
0
° OJ
Georgia
575
—------ --
Isgr.
a
31
7
1025
625
9
—
__
646
760
21
Iraq
20
4509
2999
4722
22
40
<223
0
Israel
0'
2394
3324
0
0
——
^L
3312
0
Jordan
40
1537
24
2231
1756
^ar-1
1391
4
KuWii.L
749
21
009
.-----
49
14
974
025
31
Lebanon
2
630
50
056
45
1056
996
2
Decupled Palestinian Territory
495
65
639
34
632
42
373
7
13
B
16
i
Oman
570
346
534
73S
202
Qatar 143 472
Saudi rVabia                 7562
122
95
455
1'5|
475
2
10649
5
10207
4
6j
12224
7
Syiian Arab Republic
1731
13
2690
9
4421
3496
40^
2
391
227
32
L
Waler Works Design and Supervision Enterprise
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January. 2015Ministry of Waler, Irrigation nr-d Energy
Volume IV Pad VI
Dabus ImgaTion Study nnd Design Project
Market Opportunity Study F inal Report
Cereah
Export
i
I
Import
Country Thousand Thousand Thousand
Thousand       Thousand                              Thousand
Thousand
tones             tones            tones            tones              Eon^s
tones               tones tones
2000               200S               2M9               2910               2000              20-0 B              2009
Thousand
2040
Turkey
Untie Arm Emirates
2682               5360              4191
3450 2503
281T 502
1752                3500
4375
872               1082
1477
I 1
1
I 1
1
i
I
II I
I
I
r
i
u
u
I!
I
Yemen
3573
4                   98
142
138
Europe
1B27               2860              31D3
2U3b               2854               3764
54696 72929 72005
71664             73619
1C5761
134690'
Eastern
Europe
Belarus
11193
6059
4757 4592
..
7226
45586
59463
118369
46756
2174                 525
212                  158
54
| Bulgaria
163                 269
174                181                  609
15                   11                    39
252-1                2855               3533
Czeefi
Repuh'ie
19?
238
234
1173
1407               2624
1957
Hungary
104
220
24 B
211
273
1934
6201                6312
6576
Poland
1864               2496
1328               1339
*a
720                3286
2034
Republic cf Medova
49                 133
98
76
56
239                 550
342
Romanra                         537               1320               1857
5399
Russian Federaiwn
4851                 979
431
1411
450
351
1263
3341                4612
14121 22515
14001 |
Slovak a
233               50 T
?3B                357
280
911
600
Ukraine
Northern
Europe
1021                 120
I CO                   92
1286
500
16518
5843              8055
7050               6930
0538
9565
12075
12067
A1 and Islands
Channel
Islands
0
0
DO
D
0
0
259B7
1D49S
0
D
Denmark
Estonia Faroe islands
707
210
<716
1001
068
1975
1DOO             ■-9C9
2472
113
69
105
e
2fi2
227
14
77
13
131
75
23
0
D
0
246
D
Finland                            330
161
13
101
277
698
472
723
Guernsey Iceland
64
70
a
0
Source: FAO
Table 9.2: Summary of Cereallmport
0      L0
I
Import in '000 tones
% share
world
335358
100.0%
Africa
68374
19.8%
East Africa
—
8976
2.7%
Middle Africa
2628
0 8%
North Africa
38934
11.6%
South Africa
I-------------------------------------
297?
0.9%
West Africa
12660
3 8%
East Asia
52069
15.5%
Soulh Eastern Asia
2545B
7.6%
Southern Asia
16221
4.8%
Western Asia
41289
12.3%
Europe
71564
21.4%
Eastern Europe
4552
1 4% j
j Northern Europe
6930
2
Water Warks De si gn and Supervision Enterprise
28
January. JOT5Ministry of Water, Irrigation an ri Energy 
Volume IV Part yi
Diltus I rogation Sludy and Pealgn Prcient _____________________________ Market Opportunity Sludv F>nal Repo.
Ethiopia has  been rhe largest importer of cereal (2.1 million 'ones) in Eastern African countries followed by Kenya (1 4 million tones) and united republic of Tanzania (1.2 million tones) n 2G1Q Similarly  and considering the same year. Ethiopia's  import of cereals  has been highest from middle African and southern African countries also
Of all African countries the largest import of cereal registered by Egypt (16.7 million tones) in 2010
All these indicate that there are relatively larger gaps between cereal demand and supply in Ethiopia Taking this  in Io consideration, the development of Dabus  river for irrigation purposes would contribute in minimization of the gap existed between demand and supply of cereal
Table 9.3: Summary of Cereal Export
r ~ ——
Export In 000 tones
% share
world
339846
100.0%
Africa
3621
1.1%
East Africa
041
0 2%
Middle Africa
12
0 0%
North Africa
502
0 1%
Southern Africa
1382
0.4%
Wes! Africa
835
0.3%
East Asia
1671
0.5%
South-Easlem Asia
17153
5.0%
Southern Asia
10372
3.1%
Western Asia
6303
1.9%
Europe
116369
34 8%
Eastern Europe
46756
13.8%
Northern Europe
12067
3.6%
Source: FAO
Regarding export, in 2010. Europe registered the largest expert of cereal (118.3 million tones  followed by  Asia Africa registered the least cereal export (3 6 mllflan tones). Considering percentage share of world cereal export, Eastern Europe accounted 13.8% followed by south-eastern Asia and northern Europe
Of African countries, southern African countries registered the largest share (0.4%) export of cereal followed by West Africa and East African countries in 2010.
Ethiopia exported 59,000 tones of cereal in 2010. Its percentage share accounted 1.6% in Africa and 0.02% in world's  cereal export. Eastern African countries, United Republic  of Tanzania, registered the largest export of cereal (224.000 tones) followed by  Uganda (211,000 tones) and Zambia (125,000 tones).
Ethiopia did not register cereal export in 2009. however, it registered 59. 000 tones of cereal export in 2010.
Or all African countries under consideration, in 2010. the largest export of cereal registered by South Africa (1.3 million tones) followed by Benin (582.000 tones) and Egypt (353, 000
Water Works Design and
Supervision Edef] pn $e
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January, 2015il
1
1
Ministry al Water, Irrigation and Erergy Dabus irrigation Study and Design °roject
Volume IV - Part VI Market Opportunity Study Final Report
tones) fn the same year lhe world leading export of cereal registered by Russian Eederalion 114 million tones) followed by Ukraine (12 million tones) and Thailand (9 4 million tones)
Analysis on the growth rale as well as forecasting of world cereal export has been made
1
using the data. And accordingly world's export of cereal has been grown at the rate of 2 45
percent over the period 2008 - 2010.
I
I
I
Sim larly, Africa's cereal export growth rate is estimated to be 0 □ percent over lhe penod
2006 - 2010. And the growth rate of Eastern Africa in lap sum is 0.0 percent over the period
2008 - 2010; Middle African countries 0.0 percent. North African countries -3 86 percent;
Southern African countries 0 0 percent. West African countries -0 08 percent. East Asia
countries 0 01 percent South-Eastern Asia countries 0 0t percent, Southern Asia countries 
I
0.3  percent;  Western  Asia  countries  0.0  percent;  Europe  -0  01;  Eastern  Europe  0.03
I
percent and Northern Europe 0 01 percent.
1
Forecasting of Ethiopia's cereal export has been made using growth rate technique and the
I
result is presented in table 9 7
1
I
Based on the result in table 9 7, the forecasl of cereal export of Africa is indicating ar*
increasing trend over the forecast period 2011 - 2015.
Table 9.4: Volume of total Cereal Import in 000 tones
year
2008
2009
2010
Growth rate
World
319434
327 876
335,358
2.45%
Africa
58,730
63 771
66,374
0.00%
East Africa
7,115
11,220
a, 978
0,00%
Middle Africa
2,831
2.887
2.828
0.00%
North Africa
34,595
34.380
38,934
-3.86%
South Africa
3,133
2,919
2.973
0.00%
West Afnca
11,057
12,366
12 660
-0.08%
Eastern Asia
45.938
47.337
52.089
0 01%
South-Eastern Asia
18,232
21,817
25458
0 01%
Southern Asia
18,574
20,449
16221
0 00%
Western Asia
41.0961
42,629
41 289
0,00%
I
Europe
72,929
72005
" 71 664
-0 01%
Eastern Europe
6 850
4,757
4,582
0.03%
Northern Europe
8 055
7.050
6.930
0.01%
Cereals import growth rate has been analyzed based the import data. Accordingly world
aggregate cereal import has been grown at the rate of 2.45% over the period 2008 - 2010.
Ethiopia s import of cereal has been grown at the rate of 22.4% over the period 2008 - 2010
Cereal import forecasting has also been made using the growth rale technique. Accordingly 
global import of cereal revealing an increasing trend and would reach 378 .6 million tones in
year  2015.  On  lhe  other  hand,  cereal  import  of  North  Africa,  West  Africa  and  Europe
revealing a declining trend over the forecast period 2011 -2015.
Waterworks Design and Supervision Enterprise
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January, 2015Ministry ot Water. Irngnlion and Energy
Dabus Itr.M’Hin Study and Design Reject
Tabic 9.5: Cereal Import Forecasts in thousand tones
Volume IV Part VI Market Opportunity Study Firrel Report
Year
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015 |
world
343,588
352,021
360.660
3S9,511
378.6B0
Africa
0S.375
00 375
66.376
66,376
66,377
East Africa
6,970
8.979
0.979
8.979
3,979
Middle Africa
2,020
2,626
2.628
2.828
2,828
North Africa
37,430
35,985
34.595
33.259
31,974
Sciulh Afr-n
2,973
2,973
2.973
2,973
2.973
West Africa
12.649
12,639
12.028
12,617
12,607
Eastern Asia
52,093
52,097
52,101
52,1.05
52,109
South-Eastern Asia
25,459
25,461
25.462
25.464
25.465
I Southern Asia
T6.221
16,220
16.220
16 220
16,219
Western Asia
11,209
41,269
41.289
41,289
41,269
Europe
71.650
71,651
71,645
71.638
71.632
Eastern Europe:
4.503
4,505
4,586
4.588
4,509
| Northern Europe
0,930
6.931
6.931
6.932
6,932
Source: computalion
Similarly, cereal export forecasting has  also been made for the period'  2011 -2015 and presented with the help of table 9.6 Based on the table, world s export of cereal is exhibiting an increasing trend over the forecast period 2011 -2015 and reaching -100 million tones in year 2015.
Table 9.6: Cereal Export Forecast in 000 tones
r
Year
2011
2012
2013
2014
2Q15
world
351.142
362.814
374,874
387.334
400.209
Africa
3,621
3.621
3.621
3,621
3,021
East Africa
841
842
842
042
843
Middle Africa
12
12
12
12
North Africa
12
472
445
41B
394
371
South Africa
1,381
1.381
1.380
1.379
1.378
West Africa
896
912
926
940
954
Eastern Asia
1.670
1.670
1.569
South-Eastern Asi
a             17,152
1.666
1.66?
17.152
17 151
17,151
17 15O
Southern Asia
6.095
6.905
6.914
6.923
Western Asia
r
6 933
6,305
6.307
6.308
6.310
Europe
,
6.312
110,374
118,370
118.3H3
1W.3W
118,393
Eastern Europe
46,756
46.756
46.756
46.756
i Northern Europe
45.756
|               12.069
12,072
12,0/4
___         12.077
12.079 '
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410,000
400,000
390.000
380.000
370.000
360,000
1VJ.000
M 0,000
330.000
320.000
310.000
Volume IV - Part VI Market Opportunity Study Final Report
2011            2012            2013             2014            2015
Figure 9.1: World Cereal Export and Import Forecast
World cereal import and export forecast for the period 2011 *2015 is depicted with the help of Figure 9 1 Based on the figure both import, and export of cereal exhibiting an increasing trend over the forecast period 2011-2015. However, export increasing in a larger volume than import
Similarly, Ethiopia’s import and export forecast of cereal are depicted with the help of figure 9 2. And relying on the figure, from 2011-2013 there would not be visible difference be ween imort and export of cereal. Nevertheles, commencing year 2013, cereal export revealing a dramatic increase. On lhe other hand import revealing a slight increase over the force s t period 2011-2015
300,000 2 so. ooo 200,300 ISCJ.OOO lDD.aoo
50.000 0
import ^-55— export
Figure 9.2: Ethiopia's Cereal Export Forecast in tones
Water Works Design and
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January, 2015Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Energy Dabus Irrigation Sturfy and Design Project
Volume IV Part VI Market Opportunity Study Final Report
Ethiopia's cereal import and export forecast ( in thousand tones ) for the period 2011 - 2015 is presented with the help of table 9 7 Based on the table Ethiopia’s export of cereal would reach 278 mrllion lanes in 2015
Table 9.7: Cereal Import and Export Forecast for Ethiopia in thousand tones
Year                      2011                           2012                        2013
2014                     2015
import
export
Source: compulation
2,612
3201
3 198                       3.915
4,793
5.867
1,741
9.453
51,345                278 873 |
Table 9.8: Volume of total cereal export
year
2008                    2009
world
318 332               330 201
2010    Growth rate 339.846                          3 32%
Africa
3.621                           0.00% J
East Africa
2,710
571
3,564
342
841
004%
Middle Africa
a
5
12
0.15%
North Africa
502
-5 09%
South Africa
640                      915 1,285                   1,830
1.382
Wesl Africa
207
2,221
471
885
-0.05%
1 51%
Eastern Asia South-Eastern Asia
1.749
1.671
16.879                 16.996
17.153
-0,04%
0.00%
Southern Asia
4,748
5.969
6 886
0.14%
Western Asra
3.478
5.274
6,303                          0.03%
Europe
Eastern Europe
105,761 134,690
45 586                 69 463
118.369
46 756
0.00%
0 00%
Northern Europe                              9.565
10 495
12.067
0.02% |
Similarly, global cereal export has been grown at the rate of 3 32% over the analysis period 2008 -2010 Trade balance growth rate for the period would be 0.08 %. Regionally, the largest growth rate has  been revealed by  West Africa (1 51%) followed by  Middle Africa (0 15%) and Southern Asia (0 14%).
400,000 j so, ooo
300 000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Ex poit
Figure 9.3: World Cereal Import Export in 2010
Water Works Oes-gn and Sup-erosion Enterprise
33
January, 20*5Ministry o? Waler, irrigation and Energy
Dabus Irr gal on Study and Design Project
Table 9.9: Top Cereal Producers and their Productivity
VoFumu IV - Pad VI Market Opportunity Study Final Report
Cereals
Area
Yield
Production
Total
p a growth
Country
Total
thousand
h?j 2010
p.a
grn'Alh %
2000-10
Tola’
thousand
hg/hn
2010
pa
growth
%
2000- ID
Thousand
(ones 
2009
Thousand
tones
2010
%
1990-
99
% 1999- 1 2D0U
China
90115
“05
55
: 10
463277
497943
22
0.6
United Stales gf America
5 745 3“
■0 2
70
1.8
419381
401670
17
2.3
India
1 DOO 76
-0.2
27
16
250763
267830
1.7
0.6
Indonesia
17385
1.3
49
1.9
82029
84797
17
32
Brazil
18600
0.8
43
70914
75181
03
41
F rance
9770
07
70
04
70034
682B5
1.1
0.9
--
( Russian
, Federation
3233 F
_ 2.4
18
1.7
95616
59624
59
Rangladpsh
12078
03
43
24
49738
518/5
27
32
Argenhr a
9351
18
50
39
26538
47146
6.6
2.7
Canada
13116
3JZ
35
2.2
49552
45651
1.2
09
Viel Nam
8817
0.3
52
2.3
43324
44614
53
2.7
Germany
6596
0.6
67
0.4
49809
44314
19
1.1
Thailand
13495
1.9
30
1.1
37040
40765
1.3
2.6
Ukraine
14184
15
27
34
45406
38679
56
Mexico
9974
02
35
24
31282
34922
2.5
13
Pakistan
13332
0.5
26
0.8
36157
34811
2.6
32
Myanmar
8950
23
39
2.2
34521
34555
3.9
5.1
Australia
19437
1.0
17
-1.3
34500
33506
47
■0 2
Turkey
12096
-1.4
27
16
33570
32765
2.1
1.5
Poland
7865
’1.1
34
29
29571
26653
-0.5
1.4
Nigeria
16105
-1.2
15
27
21229
24590
22
-0.5
Iran
9435
3.0
24
25
20836
22247
2B
3.9
Philippines
6853
0.5
32
2,3
23301
22149
1.6
3.6
United
3012
-1.1
70
-03
21619
20946
03
-02
Egypi
2990
08
65
-1.1
22757
19451
57
16
Spain
5964
■1.3
32
-1.1
17755
19335
0.9
-0.1
Italy
34 60
-1.8
54
09
17706
18825
2.1
-1.7
Romania
5019
-1.2
33
60
14673
16713
-0.8
-1.3
Ethiopia
9233
2.5
I7
4.2
14496
15534
56
South Africa
3548
-3.9
41
42
14577
14699
-4.1
3.8
Hungary
2500
06
47
2.7
13590
12289
’3.0
18
Kazakhstan
15068
21
a
-1.6
20764
12116
38
Serbia
1873
50
8999
9291
japan
1941
-0.5
48
-2.7
9343
9234
-1 5
27
Cambodia
3107
4.7
29
3,1
8510
9019
4.3
75
Denmark
1499
-0J
59
-0.5
10164
8816
00
1.5
United
Republic of
5245
76
16
1.3
5607
8637
-1 7
38
Morocco
5063
-0.7
15
15.3
10444
7834
-8.4
10.5
Nepal
3363
0.2
23
07
8114
7763
1.5
21
Uzbekistan
1635
02
45
6.4
7356
7416
5.5
Waler Works Design and Supervision Enterprise
34
January, 2015Ministry of Water, Irrigation rind Energy
Dabu$ Irrigation Study and Design ^ro.ec!
Volume IV - Part VI
Marks? Opportunity Study Final Report
Cereals
Area
Yield
Production
Total
p n growth
Country
Total
thousand
ha 201 n
pa
■| I ’!
2000-10
I otal
thousand
hg/ha
2010
pa
growth
%
2000-10
Thousand
tones 
2009
Thousand
tones 
2010
%
1990
90
% 1999 -
2009
World
693701
05
36
1.7
2496099
2476416
17
2.1
—
Africa
107269
2.6
15
22
16OQ97
164536
2.0
4.1
East Africa
30250
35
16
07
42835
49815
0.9
4,6
Middle Africa
3150
45
IO
19
704?
8135
4.0
5.9
Northern
Africa
19973
22
18
2.6
46786
36918
3.9
52
Sourhern
Africa
4239
-35
36
2.9
14876
15107
40
3.7
Americas
1203IS
02
53
1.6
8340!i0
641492
1.9
2.1
Latin America & the
Caribbean
49710
05
39
1.7
165127
194172
2.6
26
Northern
Amenza
70500
-0 7
63
1.0
468933
447321
1.6
19
Asia
336550
0.6
37
2.6
1200579
1228819
2.1
16
Centra) Ana
18696
1,8
14
4.9
34470
25660
4.7
Eastern As*a
94553
05
55
0.8
504739
51B4C6
1.9
0.5
South-
Eastern Asia
60271
1.5
40
21
235807
242765
2.7
3.5
Southern
142449
02
2B
2.8
3/8072
395106
2.0
1.6
■- -■ i
Western Asia
20581
-0 5
33
61
47491
46882
21
___
23
Europe
109982
-0.9
37
11
465710
407032
02
25
Eastern
Europe
69376
-1.1
26
33
226772
179693
-1 5
4.5
Northern
Europe
8797
-08
51
-0.0
5P75O
45253
0.4
15
Southern
Europe
13753
-1.8
43
2.2
57038
53516
0.3
-0.6
Western
Europe
18058
0.2
68
0.3
131150
1235/0
1.3
1.0
Oceania
19582
1.0
18
0.8
35659
34537
46
■0.2
Australia A new Zealand
19573
1.0
18
1.1
35024
34507
46
•0 2
Melanesia
10
- *-----
21
31
0.5
35
30
1.4
0.6
Micronesia
0
0.I
17
2.7
0
0
3S
52
j
0
0
Polynesia                  0
Source; FAO, 2013
World top cereal production and productivity is presented with the help of table 9.9 Based on the table, Ethiopia ranked 29th out of 40 countries considered, with production volume 15.5 million tones in 2010. Per capita growth of production is 5.6% over the period 1999 - 2009 Total cultivated area in the same year is reported to be 9.2 million hectare Ethiopia s yield per hectare is reported to be (hg/ha) Is 17000 Per capita growth of yield is 4.2% over the period 2000 -2010
Water Works Design and Superuis-on Enterprise
35
January. 2015Ministry of Wa'er, Irrigation and Energy Dabus IrrigaVcMi Study and Des gn Project Ta toe 9.10 World Meat Producton
Volume JV - Part V Market Opportunity Study Final Report
Total Meat Production
Total
0cof and
Pig
Sheep and
Poultry
Thous        p.a       Th ous       p.a       Thous        p.a        Thous        pa        Thous
World           296107       2.6        67776        1.8      109370      2.2        13459       2.1        99050
Africa 17309 4 4 5684 5.6 1239 6 U 2872 32 4769
p.a
4.3
5.2
Past               3595        3 4         1808         34
Burundi 22 1 1 8 | -1.0
403
3.4
522
3.0
2
2.9
3
2.0
Comoros          2
1.4
00
4.7          503 -0.B           7
0.8            1
0.5
Djibouti             r I Eritrea             42
Ethiopia 710 Kenya 645
00
Z7
44
5.3
1        ' 2.1 6            00
25           4 5
•100 3.1
462 6.1
0
0
2
_____ .
12
17           152
5
15
29           B8
Ma da gas      306
22
159
0.8           55          10 2
12
Malawi             110
58           32
6.3           32
41
25
0.0            0
0.1            2
9 5           52
27
71
10 8 22
Mauritius Mayotte Moza m bi Reunion Rwanda SeycheJi Somalia
51 6.9 2
■D 0
165 -1.5 19
-2 9
1
-1 1
C
0
4.6
97
-2.3
-i.i
3.2
74
10
35
S3
-2.6
40
71
1
159
376
427
14
"~6 7 -8.8
2
0.5
14
18
36
7.8
8
1.7
87
56
0          -14.3          0          -132
-60 47
0
-a.4 25
■0.2          22 10 3          2 04            1
1 0 59 -0.4
3 5 130 3 0
0           -0-1
0
24
0
9
0
82
41
-5 5
19
4
10
Uganda United Zambia Zrrribabw
32
62
23
252
24
45
1.2
56
165
3.1
74
113 3.9
14 11
23 8.5
9
61
243
Z6
35
-0 2
31
3.7           14
Middie
Angola
1189
3.3
100
413
99
2.0
153
6.5          143
-0 3
30
42
62
118
35
27
20
9.4
8.S
217
3.8
0.5
69
90           21
6.7
95
Cameroo        324
42
115
2.1
38
Central           158
31
85
2.4
Chad
147
25
95
6
25
14 3
16
1
89
29
3.1
37
20
41
1.4
60
29
19
60
12.4 1
6            5.9
5
1.2
Congo
55
7.9
2
29
1
3.0            6
Democra        250
1.5           12
-1.0
24
21           -0.2           9
0.8
-2.6
Equator
1
0
06            0
0.7
Gabon
36
0.7
1.3
0
1
0.8
02
0
3
-0 9
0.8
0.3
3.5
-5.8
1
0.4            4
0.0
Sao
1
25
2.2
0
0
1.2            1
2.5
Northern Algeria
Egypt
5977
5.3
0
2504
9.6
1
2.4         2059
4.5
656
1.5
136
0.3
0           -0 3
1098
228
26           278
1.3
1950
4.0
856
9
192
4.6
0          •16.7
128
5.5          851
37
Libya
187
Morocco
1039
2.9
53
1.1
32
0
1
08
43
162
3.7 129
1 0 618
Sudan            1066
9.1
1255        15 5
0
476
2.2           30
2.7
81
i3T“
Tunisia
278
1.0
56          -0.7
0           -2 4           59
-0.6
153
2.S
Western
South
3075
4.9
955
2.7
322
11 3
208
11
1507
Botswan          85
36           46
4.7
0
-6.5
7
0.5
Lesotho          28
0.1
11
0.5
4           -3 6
7
0.8
6
2
Namibia
77
r -2.3
35 5.8 4
______
9.6
16
-1.0           16
6.0
-3 8
-1.2
46
1 _____ -
Water Works Design and Supervision Enterprise
36
January, 2015Ministry ol Water, irrigalion and Energy
Dabus rngabcn Study and Des gn Project
Volume IV - Part VI
Market Opportunity Study Final Report
Total Moat Production
Total
Aeef and
Pig
Sheep and
Poultry
Thous
pa
Thous
pa
Thous
p.a
Thous
p.a
Thous
p.a
South
2860
52
948
31
312
1 11.6
176
14
1476
6.1
Swazdar
2S
-0 1
16
-1.0
2
4.2
2
-3.6
5
46
West
3473
37
10D4
3.6
354
3.9
801
3.9
502
5.6
Bemn
72
39
1D04
36
354
39
901
3.9
582
56
Burkina
364
40
134
47
31
46
52
3.0
37
3.5
Cote
255
24
34
03
7
08
12
1.5
35
4.7
Capo
11
3.3
1
6.6
0
25
1
78
-
1
43
Gambia
9
24
4
1.6
1
2
34
1
2.3
Ghana
246
33
26
0.6
18
5.0
32
5.2
52
10.2
Guinea
86
5.2
55
5.6
2
0.2
16
71
8
6.8
| Guinea-
3.0
6
3.5
14
2.5
2
3.9
2
4.1
Liberia
1 24-
31
35
1
10
9
7.4
2
3.5
11
5.4
j Mali
1   347
64
144
99
3
3.2
116
5.8
42
36
Maurrtanr
99
21
26
2.3
0
44
2.5
4
0.9
Niger
344
43
164
3.3
1
03
109
55
12
0.5
N-geria
1417
30
302
oa
234
40
458
31
260
5.3 :
Saint
0
0
0
0
0
Senegal
168
37
61
2.8
11
14
33
35
45
6.9
Sierra
38
48
9
45
2
■ 0.6
3
112
13
22
Togo
64
55
9
34
10 j
4.9
11
4.3
28
9.0
Eastern
86904
2.6
7386
20
54194
2.3
4136
3.9
19447
3.2
China,
184
•3 1
8
-7.2
129
-2 2
0
12 3
38
5.5
China,
12
-3.2
1
-1.5
7
■3.5
0
-8 4
4
-3.0 ‘
China
80926
27
6545
2.5
51545
24
3992
4.0
17292
3.3
Democra
325
24
22
09
110
-2 4
16
3.5
43
34
Japan
3234
0.9
515
■0.3
1292
0.3
0
-3.2
1417
1.7
Mongolia
206
-3 3
48
-8.3
0
-8 4
126
0.5
0
19.0
Republic
2018
20
247
-2.1 I
1110
1.9
1
-6.2
653
46
South-
15948
56
1737
3.8
7164
6.2
221
60
6760
6.3“
Brunei
20
26
1
’13.5
0
0.7
o
7.9
19
4.7
Cambodi
201
01
73
0.6
100
’OS
0
28
0.8
Indonesr
2049
5.3
472
2.0
695
5.4
114
30
1566
6.7
Lao
130
5.9
45
3.2
59
7.8
1
12.6
24
73
Malaysia
1670
6.5
29
5.0
234
39
2
83
1405
7.0
Myanmar
1805
14.3
210
8.5
535
15.8
42
13.7
1019
-15.2
Phlhppin
2753
29
299
1.3
1613
29
51
42
773
3,4
Srngapor
113
0.0
0
2.0
19
Thailand
2388
1.6
223
0
-2.5
94
0.3
1.0
852
22
2
74
1301
Timor-
1.3
32
19
2
■14
10
43
1
7.0
------ -------
1
Vlel Nam ——--------
3908
-3 9
72
384
7.6
303G
0.0
9
5.5
531
Southern
------------ ,—j
12342
3.8
3.5
4653
24
352
-3.1
1941
0.6
4951
8.2
Afghanis!
319
-0 0
131
0.4
0
152
-1 1
24
Ranglade
6.2
609
31
195
1.0
0
195
40
203
4,6
Bhutan
7
-0.2
5
0.3
1
-2.9
0
-14
0
India
6180
34
2.8
2566
14
332
•3.3
876
24
2231
han
2136
9.5
33
226
-2.0
0
230
-6.2
1662
7.4
Water Works Design and
SupervisiLWi Enterprise
January. 2015MiFVEli't' of Water, lirigalKKi and Eneigy Dabus Irrigation Study and Design Project
Volume IV - Part VI Market Opportunity Study Final Report
Total Meat Production
Total
Beef and                      pig
Sheep and                  Poultry
Thous        P"       Thous       PJ»       Thous        p.a Maldives          i            -0.7          0                     ‘ ■ 0
Nepal 299 2.3 212 ' 2.3 T7 1.5
Pakistan        2654         4.5        1495         S3            0
Sn Lanka        139          34           33           03            1           -2 4
Western         5904         39         1300         5 0           98          -0 5
Armenia 70 3.5 48 4.5 0 -1 0 Aze'baija 254 0 0 114 7.5 1 -2.5 Bahrain 24 60 1 0.0 0
Thous        p.a        Thous
p.a
00
53 2.8 17
434          -0 7
712
2.6
79
1            -2 2
102
49
947           08
3545
53
8           -0 2
5           15.2
74
78
64          14 1
17
9.5
6
10 0
Cyprus
97          ■0 5           4            0 1                          0.9
57
5
7 5          29
-1.4
Georgia           56          ■6 3          27            57           13          -100 Iraq                 161          05           51           06            0
Israel              693          3.2          108          54           19           2.4 Jordan            222         4.8           12           66            0
5
56
-5.7
6.0
12           -16
53           -3 3
2 6          546
4.9          188
28
4.6
Kuwait
81
06
40            1 9
Lebanon
211
70
1.5
2.0
-3 0
52
3            3.8            0
69 1.9 1 -107
10
22
36
12
15
35
36
129          21
Occupied
0
-8.4
0
29
49
-3.4
Oman
Qatar
Saudi
Syrian Turkey United
53
21
750
5
3.1
0
70             6
51             8
-1 2          576
-1 3 '       192
-3 1 1457
3.2
52
1
0.6
0
11
6.0
15
44
74
0
87
421
2.0
62
20            0
166
2356
54          622          5.7            0
-36 3
274
131
34
15                 -0.2
0
45
1.6
41
10
57
8,2
4.1
Yemen
323          6.8          108          7.6
0
69
4.0
144          8,0
Europe
56626        1.3
11001
-0.4
26939
1.1         1207
-1.2
16222        4 8
Eastern
Belarus
16B25       2.8
3166
-1 0
6639
0.6
302
1.8
6222
971
5.0
Bulgaria 1 Czech
221
603
863
-7 5
-2 6
-3 0
300
20
74
28
38
-106
-3.7
398
70
28
-11 6
1
17
-6.0
-117
260
107
10.3
13 1
-0 7
291
-3 5           2
7.8
195
-1.1
Hungary Poland Republic Romania Russian
a.5
452
-3.0
1
-12.31
376
-2.2
3584
111
22
401
1.4
1095
-0.1
1
-17         1259          79
2,4
10
-5.5
57
1.4
-4 1
1016
0.2          154
-0.5
429 | 1 6
2331 40
2
70
2.8          349          3.0
«n
9.7
7214         5.0         1727
185          2.0
2610
Slovakia         176         -4.5
4)9
-10.6
129
04
-6.4           1
71
"TT
Ukraine          2059         2 2
16
428
-5.5-       631
-0.7
31
2.1
953
17.3
Northern        aoo9
02
1970
0.7         3399
-0.1
21
359
-3.0
2305
1.3
Aland
. —■—-— Channel            0 Derma rkj      1997
0
0
0
0.1
132
-15
1668
03
0
2
1.7
190
-0.6
Estonia
75
35
13          •1.7
46
42
1
8.1
Faroe
1
395
0.1
0
D1
0
0.4 16
0.1 0
Finland
1.6
03
•1 0
203
1.6
1
1’
0.5
105
4.1
Guernse
— --------- -----
Iceland            29
1.0
4
0.7
6
26             9
-0.6
7
8.5
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January, 2015Ministry of Water Irrigation and Energy 
Dabus Irrigation Study and Design Project Market Opportunity Study Final Report
Volume IV - Pad VI
Similar Io cereal production, World meat production is presented with the help of table 9.10 Pased on the table, 209 million tones of meal have been produced in 2010 Of which the
share of Africa was  5 8% (eastern Africa 1.2%, middle Africa 0.4%. north Africa 2.0%, southern Africa 1.0%, west Africa 1.2 %); Europe 19.1% (eastern Europe 57%, north Europe 2.7%); Eastern Asia 29.35. south-eastern Asia 5 4%. southern Asia 4 2%, and west Asia 2.0%
Table 9.11: World Meat Production
Export in ’000 tones
% share
World
296107
100.0%
Africa
17309
5.8%
Eastern Africa
3595
1.2%
Mddfe Africa
1189
04%
Northern Africa
5977
2.0%
Southern Afnca
3075
1 0%
West Africa
3473
12%
Eastern Asia
06904
29 3%
South-Eastern Asia
15940
5.4%
Southern Asia
12342
4.2%
Western Asia
5984
2.0%
Europe
56628
19.1%
Eastern Europe
16825
5 7%
North Europe
8099
2.7%
Table 9.12: World Dairy Production
r
i
Production
Eggs
Milk
Butter
and ghee
cheese
Evaporate
and
condensed
milk
Skim milk
and
buttermilk
Country
Thousand
tones
pa
growth
%
2000-
10
Million
tones
2010
pa
growth
%
2000-
10
Thousand
tones
2010
Thousand
tones
2010
Thousand
tones
2010
Thousand
tones
2010
Worta
c-qnnz
2.5
719
2.7
9044
20222
4906
3430
AFrica
2852
3.5
42
4.9
M2
Easlem
983
65
337
1-7
19
15
S.7
78
23
8
4
Bciiurxji
3
0
0
7.5
0
0
0
Comoros
1
0.4
0
0
1.3
0
0
0
Djibouti
0
0
0
13
0
0
0
Eni^a
2
2.7
0
51
1
0
t
0
Eth apia
35
2.1
3
12,1
0
18
a
□
Kenya
81
29
4
s.a
0
15
□
Mj-1»g»scar
1
21
0.6
1
2
0.4
0
0
2
0
MjiLIAI
20
0.4
0
29
0
0
kiaLjJifcu*
to
0
2.2
0
0
-2 8
0
a
Maj ot|<9
0
0
0
0
0
0
MMambiqwi
14
10
0
0
o.a
G
0
0
Reunion
7
27
0
0
3.5
0
0
0
SAarrda
0
J
28
Q
0
5.9
1
0
Seychelles
0
l
'53
0
*18.2
0
0
0
S&maHa
2
'0.4
□
3
0
3
9
0
0
Uganda
23
1.3
0
1
8.8
0
0
Q
□
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January. 2015Ministry of Waler, Irrigation and Energy Dabus Irrigation Study and Design Project
Volume? IV - Part VI Market Opportunity Study Final Report
Production
Eggs
Mik
3utter
and ghee
cheese
Evaporate
and
condensed
milk
Sktm milk 
and
buttermilk
Country
Thousand
tones
pa
growth
%
2000-
10
Million
tones
2010
pa
growth
%
2000 -
10
Thousand
tones
2010
Thousand
tones 
2010
Thousand
tones 
2D10
Thousard
tones
2010
U ruled Republic cf Tanzania
34
Ti
2
6.1
32
13
0
0
Zambia
50
24
0
17
□
i
0
o
Zimbabwe
30
3
0
-T.9
2
2
6
t
Mdctle
Afrn;a
39
t6
1                15
1
1
0
0
Anoota
4
05
a
-06
0
1
0
0
Cameroon
15
14
□
25
0
0
0
0
CuntraJ 
Afrcan Republic
2
1.2
0
17
0
□
0
0
Chid
4
oa
0
22
0
0
0
0
Congo
2
3.5
0
2.4
0
0
0
D
De^oc atic
r
9
2.4
0
4 fl
0
□
0
0
republc of
the Coiwjo
Equalo^l
Guinea
0
3.1
0
0
0
0
0
Gabon
2
06
0
-0.3
0
0
0
a
Sho T&me
ana
Prlftcipiie
1
42
0
19
0
0
0
0
Northern
Africa
924
3.2
19
35
162
644
0
0
A Igeria
194
67
2
44
2
2
0
0
. Egypt
291
5.1
6
126
64J
0
0
i Utoya
52
0.4
0
09
0
0
0
0
Morocco
230
-0.2
2
4.6
29
44
0
0
South
S'rtifln
Sudan
Sudan
/ormer)
56
22
7
2.6
IS
150
0
0
T unisia
91
1
1
1.7
6
■1
0
0
Sahara
South Africa
485
41
_________ 2.3
J
4
>-
_
14
48
56
Botswana
15
4
3.5
0
-0 4
1
3
0
Lesotho
0
2
1.3
0
27
1
0
a
0
WamutMa __ _
4
56
LC
27
1
0
0
Souih Africa
473
0
41
3
24
12
44
Swaziland
56
1
1
15
0
1.2
0
0
0
Western
Afnca
B67
4.3
4
0
7.6
28
73
D
0
Banin
’1
7.4
□
3
0
0
BuiMna
Faso
0
52
28
0
0
44
2
0
0
0
Co'te
d'Ivoire
32
03
0
2
0
0
0
0
Cjpc Verde
2
1.5
0
92
0
Gambia
l
□
2
0
0
2
0
0
0
Ghana
37
54
0
1.4
a
0
0
0
| Guinea
24
72
0
0
0
5.1
0
Guinea-
Bissau
1
31
0
0
0
0
23
0
ro
0
0
[Labcria
5
2.3
0
-0 4
0
0
Mali
14
0
1.5
2
0
13 6
0
0
Maumania
5
1.4
0
0
1.9
0
1
5
0
l '3  ______
tJ    er
e
-0.3
1
0
1
T3
L!l3*ra
623
4.5
59
0
0                2.5
0
H
9
1“ 0
0
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Datrus IrrigatHzn Study and Design Project
iVar^'■! Opfiui.ir'iiy 
Volume IV - Part VI
■ w deport
—
—
Production
------ J
Eggs
Milk
Butler
ard ghee
cheese
Evaporate
and
condensed
milk
Country
------               I Skim milk
and
buttermilk ------------  — i
Thousand
tones
p.3
■growth
%
2000-
10
Million
tones
2010
p.B
growth
%
2000-
10
Thousand
tones
2010
Thousand
tones
2010
Thousand
tones
2010
Thousand
lones
2010
Sair:
Helena Ascees-on and Tritiari
d.i “ha
0
0
a
0
0
0
Ser eg n 1
3D
53
0
43
1
0
0
0
Sri* I 3 L ^urt
9
14
0
76
0
o
0
0
Toga
9
3.9
0
12
□
0
D
0
Eastern Asia
31300
22
51
10.2
233
404
I 78
167
CMne, Hang Kor^ SAR
0
-3
0
-30.3
3
0
0
0
China.
Ma cm SAH
□
-0.6
0
__________
0
D
0
0
Ct 1H3
7H0TJ,
2.4
41
129
1W
277
131
0
Ds^-ccrnHc pBHOfUSe'ii RrfcublK of Korea
155
3.5
0
06
D
0
0
0
Ja?Fan
2515
-0 1
0
74
125
42
156
Mongolia
a
25
0
■34
1
1
0
0
Republic, of
Koiea
622
22
2
0 fl
59
0
4
31
South Eftklem A»la
4120
4 fl
4
7.3
2G
00
731
0
Biunai Darueealam
7
39
0
-2.6
0
0
0
0
Campcdia
22
41
0
1.6
0
0
0
0
bnCorctla
1302
50
1
5.3
0
0
21
0
Lao
Peopled Democratic Republic
15
41
0
16
0
0
0
0
■ Malaysia
554
33
0
71
0
0
?56
0
Myanmar
357
113
1
9t
28
75
0
0
PI pplnes
465
39
0
44
0
a
0
0
Singapore
22
26
0
0
0
337
0
thjiund
980
2
t
5
a
5
109
0
Trr.or-Lusle
t
-0.7
a
4
a
0
0
a
Vet-Nam
321
5.5
0
135
0
0
a
0
Southern
Aim
5053
46
167
3.7
4301
270
a
143
Alghamilan
IS
09
2
03
33
22
0
0
Bargiadenh
256
3.7
3
4?
25
1
0
0
fiftulan
a
-2.4
0
06
a
0
0
0
lr*to_
3370
5.2
117
3.9
33B3
0
Iran (Islamic
Kep^blic ofi
741
0
2.5
7
14C
22
107
254
3
0
Maidens
0
0
a
0
0
Nepal
32
3.3
0
2
3.1
24
0
Passlan
564
4.9
0
0
35
3.3
649
0
0
Sri Lanka
65
2.1
3
0
3.1
1
0
Western
Asia
1889
4
1.0
24
D
3.2
221
630
31
5
Armenia
39
6.1
1
2.9
1
i Azertujnn
71
17
0B
0
0
2
4,1
31
54
Sahra In
3
12
0
0
D
-6 7
0
Cyprus
0
9
-2
0
0
0
”0 1
a
5
Gw.'gla
25
22
fl
1
D
I .0,3
0
Iraq
0
45
46
a
0
-0.1
4-----
0
4
13
Israel
102
15
i
0
-3.9
0
6
127
Jordan
69
42
□
27
3.5
5
0
1?
0
:*‘
Water Works Design and Supervision Enterprise
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January, 2015M nstry of Weil hi, Irrigation and Energy Dabus irrigation Study -and Design Projerl
Volume IV - Part VJ Market Opportunity Study Final Report
Production
Eggs
Milk
Suiter
and ghee
cheese
Evaporate
and
condensed
milk
Skim milk 
and
buttermilk
Gauntry
Thousand
tones
pa
growth
%
2000
10
1 pa
Million
tones
2010
growth
%
2000-
10
Thousand
tones
2010
Thousand
tones
20 to
Thousand
tones
2010
Thousand
tones
2010
L —   -------
Kuwait
40
65
0
53
c
0
0
0
L-banon
47
(1 0
0
01
0
16
3
<1
Occupied
13 iniar
Territory
40
00
0
23
0
5
0
0
Oman
9
32
0
55
0
2
0
0
Qatar
5
5.3
0
4.3
0
0
D
0
Saudi Arat 3
193
4.2
2
7.2
6
’99
0
0
Syrian Ara: Republic
153
2.5
2
3
ia
..
”5
0
0
Turkey
740
—
-9 9
14
3.3
■56
156
1
0
United Arae Fmirates
26
6
0
43
1
0
0
0
Ycr-i in ii
61
6.9
0
43
1
0
0
a
Europe
10545
1.4
213
0
2375
10294
1915
1424
Eastern
Eurcipn
4907
2.0
74
0.1
624
2090
580
464
Belarus
195
0.7
■r»
4
99
187
106
71
Bulgaria
90
07
1
2.9
1
77
0
0
Czech
Repytiic
122
-4.2
3
-0.4
41
129
B4
6H
Hungary
156
-1.4
2
-2.4
4
82
8
1
Poland1
615
3,9
12
0.3
174
664
19
132
Republic  of Moldova
40
2.3
1
0.3
4
7
65
3
Romania
310
0.8
5
0.9
a
M
1
fi
RtiMran FodaradiDn
2274
18
32
-ad
207
6D3
I9B
66
Slovak, m
BO
25
1
-1 5
6
51
3
10
Ukraine
1016
73
11
42
so
233
75
112
Northern
Europe
1135
15
35
-0.2
420
1272
196
246
Aland
telantfs
Channfrf
I'm lands
0
9
0
0
0
a
Derma rk
76
0.3
5
04
34
292
10
28
E&lpna
11
32
1
07
6
23
1
10
Fat'sfr
tE lands
0
0
□
0
0
0
Finland
62
0.5
7j
-0.5
54
101
Gvemiry
Iceland
3
a
17
0.6
0
1.7
2
9
0
1
Similarly and based on data <n table above ihe share of meal production of Ethiopia m the world has been 0 2% with production of 710 000 tones of meat in 2010. In the same year 2010 Ethiopia's share of meat production was 4 1% in Africa. Relying on the same data, the share of meat production of Ethiopia in Eastern Africa is ranking first with share of 13,7% The highest per capita growth of meat Droduction (in Eastern Africa) has been registered by Mauritius followed by Malawi and Kenya in 2010. In the same year Ethiopia’s per-capita growth of meat production was 4 4%
When it is implemented, Dabus irrigation development project, will add additional volume of meat production for Ethiopia.
Water Works Design and Supervision Ert&rpnse
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January, 2015Ministry of Waler, Irrigation rind Energy
Dabus Irnnalion Study and Design °rajpci
Tabic 9.13: Summary of World Dairy Production
Volume IV — Prir t VI Market Opportunity Study Final Report
Countries
Egg production
%tage
World
69092
100.0%
Africa
2652
3 0%
Eastern Africa
337
0.5%
Midie Africa
39
D.1%1
Northern Africa
924
1.3%
Southern Africa
485
n 7%
Western Africa
067
LW
Eastern Asia
31308
45.3%
South Eastern Asia
4123
6.0%
Southern Asia
5053
7.3%
Western Asia
1689
2.4%
Europe
10545
15.3%
Eastern Europe
4907
7.1%
Nori hern Europe
1135
1 6%
Considering FOA's data in table 9 12, globally, 69 million tones egg. 719 million tones milk, 9 million tones butter and ghee and 20 million tones cheese have been produced in the analysis year 2010. In the same year, the share of eggs production of Africa was 3.8% (eastern Africa 0.5%. middle Africa 0.1, northern Africa 1 3%, southern Africa 0.7%, and western Africa 1 3%) Similarly the share of eggs production of eastern Asia was 45.3 %. south-eastern Asia was 6.0% southern Asia 7.3%, western Asia was 2 4% in the same analysts year 2010 in world.
Eggs production in Europe in 2010 was 10 5 million tones (’with share of 15.3%). Eastern Europe has a share of 7.1% world's eggs production in same year 2010 While northern Europe has share of eggs production 1.6% in worlds eggs production
Based or the same FAO's data. Ethiopia has been registered 35, 000 tones eggs production in year 2010 Its share will be 1 3% in Africa and 10.4% in Eastern Africa The major eggs producing country in eastern Africa was Kenya followed by Zambia and Ethiopia in the analysis year 2010.
Table 9,14: Summary of World Milk Production
Countries
Milk production
% tago
World
719
100%
Africa
42
5.3%
I Eastern Africa
15
2 1%
Midle Africa
1
0 1%
Northern Africa
19
2 6%
Southern Africa
4
0 6%
Western Africa
4
Eastern Asia
0,6%
St
South-Eastern Asia
7.1%
4
Southern Asia
0 6%
167
23.2%
Western Asia
24
Europe
3,3%
213
Eastern Europe
29.6% '
74
Northern Europe
10.3%
35
4,9% '
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Volume IV - Part VI Markel Opportunity Study Final Report
Regarding milk  production of the world's  719 million tones  of rmlk  produced in 2010, the share of Africa was 5 3% and that of Europe was 29 6%. Similarly, the share of Ethiopia in global milk production was 0.4 % in 2010. And its share in Africa milk production was 7.1% in the same analysis year 2010
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10. CONCLUSION
Volume IV - Pari Vt Market Opportunity Study final Report
The command gross development area of Dabus Irrigation Development Project is relatively large (more lhan 10.000 hectare) and its contribution to the national agricultural output would be high
Since agriculture is the means of livelihoods of rural population and an important engine of economic growth in Etniopja. the development of this Dabus Irrigation Development project would contribute valuable output in accelerating the contribution of agriculture for ths national economy, alleviation of food security  probrems  of the region and the country  al large. As global development history also indicating industrial development is possible with agricultural development This  means  is  that Dabus  Irrigation Development Project woufd also add its  own contribute for agricultural development and ultimately  development of industrial and service sectors in the country.
Agricultural production from irrigation command area of Dabus  Irrigation Development. Project (above all) assists in filling the gap of demand and supply of agricultural production in the coun'ry. It also assists  in reducing and / or further eliminating imports  of cereals  and ultimately  contributing for maintaining food security  efforts  of the country. As  FAO pul ft, developing countries are net importers of agricultural products (FAO, 2013, P 152).
Implementation of such project would create job opportunities  for a number of rural populations primarily rn (he project area as well as for people of the country a! large It also enables io introduce modern irrigation farming and hence contribute in knowledge transfer of a new technology.
Crops  that are planned to be produced from the command area would not face market problems. As field observation in the project area indicating there are many local markets in lhe project area as well as demand.
Lack of access road and communication facilities, which would enhance local trade and sale of local products, is  the major problem of the project area especially  for Oda Bildogidu Worsda, construction of access road is Important.
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Volume IV - Pad VI Market Opportunity Study Final Report
REFERENCES
1      CSA, Federai Democratic Republic of Ethiopia Central Statistical Agency. (2011)- Statistical Abstract 2011/12, Addis Ababa. Ethiopia
2      Ethiopia Commodity Exchange (ECX},
http://www.ocx com et/companyProfile.aspextfAU. last visited November 21. 2013
3      Ethiopia Commodity Exchange Authority (ECEA), http://www.ecea.gov.et/index.aspx, last visited November 22, 2013
A Ethiopia Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE), http://www eglemis com/ last visited
November 21 2013
5      FAO Ethiopia. Achievement Report, pdf
6       FAO. Ethiopia Country Programming Framework 2012 -2015, (2011), pdf, Addis Ababa
7.     FAO. Statistical Year book 2012, Africa Food and Agriculture, pdf
8.     GTP, Growth and Transformation Plan 2003 -2007 E C
9.     HALCROW-ULG LIMTED. (1982), Dabus Irrigation Project Feasibility Study, Final Report Volume VI, Ethiopia.
10.   MoWE. (January, 2014), Dabus Irrigation Development Project, Draft Feasibility Report on Agricultural Planning and Irrigation Agronomy Studies
11 National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE), httpV/www nbe gov et/pdf/annual bulletin/ Annual % 2 12.   National Bank Of Ethiopia, ( 2012), 2010/11 Annual Report, pdf.
13.   VWVDSE, (January, 2014), Dabus Irrigation Development Project, Livestock Development Study Draft Feasibility Report
Water WorKs Design and Supervision Enterprise
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January. 2015

Summery

Dabus Irrigation Development Project - Market Opportunity Study Summary

Project Overview

The Dabus Irrigation Development Project is located in Asosa Zone, Benishangul Gumuz Region, Ethiopia, approximately 687 km from Addis Ababa. The project aims to develop irrigation on over 10,000 hectares of land to boost agricultural production and contribute to food security.

Key Findings

1. Project Area Characteristics

Population: Asosa Zone has 388,481 inhabitants (2012 data)
Main economic activity: Mixed farming agriculture
Current average farm size: 1 hectare per household
Current average crop production: 10 quintals per farmer

2. Agricultural Production Potential

Major crops: Sorghum, maize, teff, oilseeds, pulses, vegetables, fruits
Fruit production: Mango is widely grown (13.7% of permanent crop area)
Livestock: Goats, cattle, sheep, poultry recommended for the area
Potential cereal production: 2.4 million quintals from one season in command area

3. Market Analysis

Local markets exist but need development
Price ranges (2011-2012):
- Vegetables: 1.75-33.52 Birr/kg (garlic highest)
- Fruits: 1.35-8.30 Birr/kg (grapes highest)
- Cereals: 800-1800 Birr/quintal
Ethiopia's cereal imports growing at 22.4% (2008-2010)
Major market players: Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise, Ethiopia Commodity Exchange

4. Infrastructure

Road access: Asphalt to Asosa town, gravel roads to project area
Storage: Need for large storage facilities in Asosa
ECX warehouse in Asosa with 50,000 quintal capacity

5. Global Context

Africa accounts for 19.8% of world cereal imports
Ethiopia ranked 29th in world cereal production
Project can help reduce Ethiopia's cereal import dependency

Conclusions

Project will significantly contribute to national agricultural output
Will help address food security challenges
Market exists for projected agricultural products
Will create employment opportunities
Road infrastructure improvements needed in some areas

Report Details: January 2015, prepared by Water Works Design and Supervision Enterprise for Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Energy