THE FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA
MINISTRY OF WATER AND ENERGY
ETHIOPIAN NILE IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE PROJECT
(WORLD BANK FINANCED)
FEASIBILITY 8TUDIE8 OF ABOUT 80,000 HA NET IRRIGATION AND
DRAINAGE SCHEMES
UPPER BELES IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE SCHEME FEASIBILITY STUDY FINAL REPORT
VOLUME 2: WATER RESOURCES
SR-01A: WATER RESOURCES
Halcrow
IN ASSOCIATION WITH
GENERATION INTEGRATED RURAL DEVELOPMENT (GIRD) CONSULTANTS
ADDIS ABABA. ETHIOPIA
MAY 2011Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia
Ministry of Water and Energy
World Bank Financed Ethiopian Nile Irrigation and Drainage Project
Feasibility Studies of about 80,000 ha net Irrigation and Drainage Schemes Feasibility Study Final Report
UPPER BELES IRRIGATION & DRAINAGE SCHEME
Volume 2: Water Resources
SR-01A: Water Resources
May 2011
Haterow Group Limited and
Generation Integrated Rural Development (GIRD) Consultants
PO Box 102175, Comet Building (5<h Floor)
Hade GebresoiMtle Road. Addis Ababa Ethiopia
Tel *215-1 (0) 115 03 09 92 Fax ♦251-1 (0) 116 63 09 91
www haterow oom
This Report has been prepared m accordance with the insuvctxns of the Federal
Government of EtNop«a. Ministry of Water and Energy for their sole and specrtc
use Any other persons who use any nformabon contained herwn do so al (her own
risk
C Haicrow Group Limited and Generation Integrated Rural Development (GIRD) Consultants
2011Halcrow Group Limited and
Generation Integrated Rural Development (GIRD) Consultants
PO Box 102175. Comet Building (5<h Floor)
Haile GebceteteesM Road. Addle Ababa Ethiopia
Tel *215-1 (0) 116 63 09 92 Fax *251-1 (0) 116 63 09 91
wwwhafcrowcom
This Report has been prepared accordance with the instructions of the Federal
Government of Ethiopia, Ministry of Water and Energy for their sole and specific
use Any other persons who use any in form a bon contained herein do so at the* own
nsk
© Halcrow Group Limited and Generation Integrated Rural Development (GIRD) Co 2011 *U 11Tvim!
fiihtufit, SUumy tfWjter ru [iivrp
lilfaftan NtJf Imtarw* jkA Drjutjf-t PryrJ
FEASIBILITY REPORT STRUCTURE Volume 1; Main Report (Plus Annexes)
Volume 1 Water Resources
SR-OI A: Water Resources Volume 3: Irrigation Development
Volume® 4
A 5:
SR-OI B Imganon A Drainage Development
Soils, Land Use A Suitability
SR 02A: Soils, Land Use A Suitability Part 1 of 4: Main Report
Part 2 of 4: Annexes A. B de C
Pan 3 of 4: Annex D
Part 4 of 4: Annexes E - N
Volume 6: Land Resources de Agricultural Development
Volumes 7
& 8:
SR-02B: Imgated Agriculture A Agio-economic Development SR-02C: Livestock Development
SR-02D: land &. Watershed Management and Forestry
Resource Users A Socio-Economics
SR-03A: Resource Users and Socio-economics
Parr 1 of 5: Summary Report (Ixft A Right Banks) Part 2 of 5 SDAs I A 111 on Right Bank
Part 3 of 5: SDAs III A IV' on Left Bank
Volumes 9,
10 & 11
Part 4 of 5: Survey Data Annexes (SDAs 1 A III on Right Hank) Part 5 of 5: Survey Data Annexes (SDAs IV A IV on Left Bank)
SR-03Ek Reiettlemenc
Engineering Surveys, Investigations, Planning A Design SR (HA: Engineering: Irrigation & Drainage Works
SR-04B: Engineering Storage Dam
SR 04C Geology, Hydrogeology' and Geotechnical Interpretive Report Part 1 of 3: Main Report A Annexes A D
Part 2 of 3; Annexes E - II Part 3 of 3: Annexes I - P
SR-04D: Topographic Survey Works
Hclc* I'4 -Volume 2
1I tikru.' K/pttM Miwrn tfV*rr&E*fV
Etfvtfuan X/& Im&ttu* aad Drmge PnyXr
Volume 12 Environmental Sunni, Financial & Economic Analysis, Stakeholder Consultations A Study Terms of Reference
SR-O5 Environmental Status
SR-06: f inancial A Economic Analysis
SR-O" Stakeholder Consultations
SR-OR: Study Terms of Reference
Maps and Engineering Drawings, AJ
Map Albums, Al
Main Album
Detailed Soils, Land Use A Suitability Album
Topographic .Album
Bclcs H ‘Volume 2
ii
l.luhr 20:1Federal Democratic
Ethiopia
Ministry of Water and
World Bank Financed Ethiopian Nile Irrigation and Drainage Project Feasibility Studies of about 80,000 ha net Irrigation and Drainage Schemes Feasibility Study Final Report
Halcrow
in association with
Generation Integrated Rural Development (GIRD) Consultants
G-T>Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia
Ministry of Water and Energy
World Bank Financed Ethiopian Nile Irrigation and Drainage Project
Feasibility Studies of about 80,000 ha net Irrigation and Drainage Schemes Feasibility Study Final Report
UPPER BELES IRRIGATION & DRAINAGE SCHEME
SR-01A: Water Resources May 2011
Haterow Group Limited and
Generation Integrated Rural Development (GIRD) Consultants
PO Box 102175. Comet BuWng (5th Floor)
Hate Gebresetessie Road. Adde Ababa Elhlopla
Tel *215-1 (0) 116 53 09 92 Fax *251-1 (0) 116 63 09 91
www haicrow com
This Report has been prepared in accordance with the instructions of the Federal
Government of Ethiopia. Mkiistry of Water & Energy for the* sole and specAc use
Any oOmk persons who use any Information contemed herein do so at their own risk
© Haterow Group Limited and Generation Integrated Rural Development (GIRD) Conauftante
2011Kalcrow Group Limited and
Ganaratlon Integrated Rural Development (GIRD) Conauftante PO Bex 102175, Comat Binding (5<h Floor)
Haile GebresataiUa Road. Addte Ababa. EtNopo Tel *215-1 (0) 116 63 09 92 Fa* *251-1 (0) 116 63 09 91
ww* halcrow oom
Thl» Report
‘"'wed n ecconfance wrth the Instruct*™ ol the Federal
o( w r 4
- ** «* -
“* “*> ■’to'maton contained herein do so *1 thoir own nek
■--* Rural Development (GIRO) Consultants © Halcrow Group Limited and Generation Integrated ku™
2011OfR/f
Hftapftw Nde Ivyrtw /Jwffdr Awtf
AflJW/r, tf ITJfer & H««jy
FEASIBILITY STUDY FINAL REPORT
UPPER BELES IRRIGATION &. DRAINAGE SCHEME
SR 1A: WATER RESOURCES
CONTENTS
1 INTRODUCTION
2 CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL DATA
2/ Cto 
2.2 Jfydntop 
2.3 Rirrr morphology an J Land Forms
2.4 Chmafe and hydrology data J»WJ
2. 9 Ramfad data avai/aMe
2.6 PfT&mtiag exploratory data wrtdydr (T9 DA) 2.7 htfilfag of rwnfalldata
2.ff Xnw/ rainfall ujing oo-itrigin^
2.9 AvatbhfUty of thmato data 
2.10 Prt&ninary FDA of dimutf data 
2.11 Ttmperatxrt data 
2.12 Relative humidify
2JJ Jx/Artr ikwirr
2.14 Winded 
2.19 L*w£ termdttm^ ch mate data 2.16 Rrfmn.T FA^oiraruptradon (ET )
t
2.17 Fhv data 
J
& ? ?
I - 1 ? 23
2d
29
29
37
J J 39
4Q
41
4 j
2.15 
AwdhMty qfflbnr data 
4$
2.19 
Rjvrr £ir/ data
5j
2.20 
Lake fan/ data
fj
3 FLOW ESTIMATION AT DAM SITE AND AT DIVERSION WEIR
3. 1 Dwrynwr iwrir and dam loiafton
3- 2 Flow estimation for drrmnin wr and dam site
9 J E4mp estimation wrng IT’47B.4L
3.4 Cafibration and validation of U^4 7K4L modelparameters
J- T Fatimatrnrr of flair at diitmon irerr and dam site anng IT>1TIL4L
4 DESIGN FLOOD ESTIMATION
55
J5
97
61
63 64
67
4. f
Rainfall Frrqittitcy H aaJysit
4.2 
Dfjtea storms hyetographs
4.3 
Probable Maxtmam Pmrpitation (PMP}
67
72
73
4.4 Temporal di/nbn/MK of rhe PA1P 4.9 Design flood hydrographs
77
7dFmrml Drm*w Rrf**?. •/£/Ar^. tf Water &
EltmpM XtV Irr^tfMK Dewra# Pr^ttf
46 Model Chemafisaiion for Upper Beks Rsvtr
4.7 Estimation of time of Tr. W time of concentration Tr
4.8 Estimation ofpeak flow
4.9 Designflow estimation at the diversion weir (natural conditions)
4.10 Stmi tint) analysts of design flows (natural conditions)
4.11 Comparison of design flow (natural conditions)from other methods
4.12 Water levels at diversion weir (natural conditions)
4.13 Maximum design flows at the diversion weir
4.14 Design flows for siting cross drainage structure across main canals
5 WATER BALANCE MODELLING, OPERATIONAL RULES AND IRRIGATION DEVELOPMENT IN THE BELES RIVER CATCHMENT
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Stud) objtdne
5.5 Water resource development tn the Luke Tana and Belts basins
5 31 The Chara-Chara war
5.3.2 Tis Abbay I and Tis Abbay 1! hydropower plants
5.3.3 Tana-Beles hydropower scheme
5.4 l^ike Tana water level and onflow
5.5 Operation Baeks for l^jke Tana
5.5.1 Lake operational rule - Salim and Pietrangch (2006) 5.5.2 Lake operational rule - SMGC (2008)
5.5.3 ludce operational rule - Halcrow — GIRD (2010)
5.6 Regulated onflow to Abbay river
5.7 Approach to wafer balance modelling
5.8 Water balance model of Lake Tana using U’7 L4P software
5.8.1 Areal rainfall using co-knging
5 8.2 .Areal evapotranspiration
5.8.3 Rainfall-runoff modelling
5 8 4 Evaporation for Lake Tana
5.8 5 Lake Tana groundwater interactions
5.8.6 Bathymetric survey
5.9 Model set up
5.9.1 Lake Tana
5.9.2 Chua-Chan weir
5 9.3 Lake Tana inflows - rainfall-runoff modelling
5 9 4 Irrigation and water supply demand sites
5.9.5 The Tana-Bek’s hydropower scheme
5.9.6 Setting priorities levels
5.10 Cabbration oj Water Balance Model
5.11 Model scenarios
5.12 Modelling environmental flow requirements on the A bbay nvrr
5.15 Impacts on Iaike Tana water levels and lake area
5.14 Parti lion of flow between Abva) and Beks rivers
5.15 Environment flow requirements on Abba) nuer at Tu lssat wattrfaaFederat Dtemrsfu efEttoefu. Mtmitn ef^of er & E*te&
Kiir lmgifMii &<i Dranoft Pr^ea
5.16 7 ana- Beier tydrnpovtr nieajer
5. / 7 Tana Beier bydnpovrr generation
5.1 fl Irrigation development and rforuge requirement m I Ipper Beks project ana 5.19 imgition Dufies Jar ( pper Beks
5.20 Dwrrrton and storage nqummenfs at I pper Beks pnjod area 5.21 Imgifion development in I awrr Beier catchment
6 RESERVOIR SIMULATION
6.1 
l
Dam site on Beier mrr for ( pper Beks Scheme Development
135
140
141 142 144 155
161
161
6.2 
Purport of Reservoir 5Fatrr Balance
6.3 
Reservoir Operation Modelling
6.4 
Dtad storage
6.5 
Target re karts
162
165
166
167
7 RESERVOIR FLOOD ATTENUATION AND OUTFLOW
7,7 Introduction
7.2 I is 6matron of Vi PMF
7. i Model rchematua/wn
7.4 Reservoir attenuation of 56 PMF
8 DRAINAGE MODULUS
177
177
177
177
178
181
8. 1 Introduction
8.2 General catena and methods to determine drainage modulus
8.3 Drainage modulus for rkpmg land
8.4 Drainage modulus for flat land
8.5 Companion of methods and ncommendation
181
181
182
186
187
9
SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
189
10
REFERENCES
195FftA’.ruL'DfflMiTijftr
JffflrrXiT Fag-t E*ngj
AMf /nd^a^ff Jwrf DfW#£j* Prtt/tVT
ANNEXES
ANNEX NR
DESCRIPTION
ANNEX A
MONTHLY & DAILY RAINFALL
ANNEXAl
MONTHLY RAINFALL DATA FOR PAWE STATION
ANNEX AZ
MONTHLY RAINFALL DATA FOR CHAGNI STATION
ANNEX A3
MONTI 11.Y RA INFALL DATA FOR MANDURA STATIC IN
ANNEX A4
MONTHLY RA!NFz\LL DATA FOR DANGILA STATION
ANNEX A 5
MONTHLY RA1NFAIL FOR GORGORA STATION
_ _
ANNEX A6
DAILY RAINFALL DATA FOR PAWE STATION
ANNEX A7
DAILY RAINFALL DA TA FOR MANDURA STATION
ANNEX AH
DAILY RAINFALL DATA FOR DANGILA STATION
ANNEX A9
DAILY RAINFALL DATA F< >R GORGORA STATIC )N
ANNEX A10
DAILY KAINF.ALI. DATA FOR KUNZILA STATION
ANNEX B
AVERAGE MONTHLY RAINFALL
ANNEX Bl
LONG TERM AVERAGE OBSERVED MONTHLY RAINFALL FOR STATION IN TANA BASIN
ANNEX B2
MONTHLY RAINFALL ESTIMATED USING CO-KRIGING FOR UPPER BELES COMMAND AREA
ANNEX B3
MONTHLY <L\TCHMENT AVERAGE RAINFALL DATA
ANNEX C
MONTHLY CLIMATE DATA
ANNEX Cl
MONTHLY CLIMATE DATA H )R PAWE STATION
ANNEX C2
MONTHLY CLLXLVTF- DATA FOR DANGILA STATION
ANNEX C3
MONTHLY CLIMATE DATA FOR CHAGNI STATION
ANNEX C4
MONTHLY CLIMATE DATA FOR MANDURA STATE IN
ANNEX C5
AVAILABILITY OF MONTHLY CLIMATE DATA AT PAW, CHAGN I. DANGILA AND MANDURA STATIONS
ANNEX C&
INHIJXD CLIMATE DATA FOR PAWE STATION
ANNEX D
FLOW DATA
ANNEX DI
MONTHLY FIX >W F( )R MAIN BELES RIVER AT BRIDGE STATION
ANNEX D2
MONTI LLY FLOW F( )R GILGliL BF.1-ES RIVER NEAR MANDURA
ANNEX DJ
DAILY FLOW FOR MAIN BELES RIVER AT BRIDGE STATIC IN
ANNEX D4
DAILY FLOW FOR GILGEL BEJ JiS RIVER NEAR MANDURA
ANNEX D5
MONTHLY FLOW FOR MAIN BELES RIATtR AT BRIDGE STATION
(TNF1IJ-ED)
ANNEX D6
MONTHLY FLOW ESTIMATED USING A REGIONAL APPROACH
ANNEX D7
A GUIDE FOR OPTIMISING WATBAL PARAMETERS J_ . a /IND c
ANNEX DB
ANNUAL MAXIMUM DAILY FLOW FOR MAIN BELES AT BRIDGE
ANNEX D9
ANNUAL MAXIMUM DAI LA’ FLOW FOR GILGE1. BRIKS NEAR MANDURA
ANNEX E
SEDIMENT DATA
ANNEX El
SUSPENDED SEDIMENT CONCENTRATIONS FOR LAKE 1 AN A
ANNEX F
ANNEX El
ANNUAL DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL
ANNUAL DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL
ANNEX G
LAKE LEVELS
jWNEXGl
MONTHLY OBSERVED IAKE 1 .EVELS FOR I AKE TANA AT BAI HR DARI Dtwrt; Rjpttbi; Elhtcpta. Mniffry fifWjfrr C Ewrp-
u
H/fuM \’t* Impolite j/tii Pnttjp Pnjftf
ANNEX NR
ANNEX G2
ANNEX H
ANNEX Hl
ANNEX H2
ANNEX!
ANNEX II
ANNEX J
i ANNEX JI
ANNEX J 2
ANNEX K
ANNEX KI
ANNEX L
ANNEX J.1 
ANNEX M
Description______________________________ _ 
DAII Y (^SERVED LAKE LEATLS FOR LAKI TANA AT BAHIR D.\R AREAL RAINFALL AND ET<>
lake TANA & BEI.ES areal rainfall USING C< )• KRIGING ETo FOR SUB CATCHMENTS USING TIK >RNTHW'A1TE METHOD LAKE TANA NET-EVAPORATION
LAKE TANA NET EVAPORATION
1 AKE TANA FLOWS
LAKE TANA LTA AND OBSERVED OUT FLOW 
I OBSERVED RIVF-R FLOWDATA FLOWING INTO LAKE TANA MONTHLY FLOW FOR SUBCATCHMENTS
iMONTHLY FLOW FOR SUBCATCHMENTS USING RAINRUN RESERVOIR EVAPORATION
4
MONTHLY NET RESERVOIR EVAPORATION
ADJUSTED MONTHLY INFLOWSJTO LAKE TANA
•1
/ ivi
Ji
ANNEX N
STORAGE REQUIREMENTS & OPERATING RULES
ANNEX N1
UPPER BELES & HYMA SCHEME FAILURE RATE AND ST( >RAGE
REQUIREMENT (HALCRC )W GIRD OPERATIONAL RULE 1784.75 mu
ANNEX N2
UPPER BELES & HYMA SCHEME FAILURE RATE AND ST( >RAGE REQUIREMENT (SMEC OPERATIONAL RULE 1784.75 nusl)tr/M
Ethupta. Mtnrtry * titer t*~ E*rp
E/fapmi .Viir Irr^f^i cr*< Mfr E^t.i
LIST OF TABLES
Table 2-1 last of climite stations dose to Upper Beks Scheme (SMEC 2008)................................................................ 12
Table 2-2 Complete and pamaJ missing rainfall data years............... -........... -..........................-..................—........ —
Table 2-3: Rain gauges used for estimating areal rainfall (SMEC 2008).............................................. ........ -..............
Table 2-4: Availability of monthly rainfall data............................ .. ............................ -.........—..... —........ ~ ..........
Table 2-5: Percentage of missing monthly rainfall data-.................... -...... •................................................................... ®'
Table 2-6: Rain gauge priority and regression equation used for infilling.................................. ......... ........... ........ —21
Table 2-7: Ixmg term average rainfall, dependable (80%), and effective rainfall for Upper Belts command
area-—--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------- ——
Table 2-8: Available climate data from NMSA............. ............................ -.........................—........................................28
Table 2-9: Long term averagr temperature for Upper Beks command area....................................................... . ........36
Table 2-10 Ixmg term average sunshine hours estimated from NMSA and PARS data........................................... *39
Table 2-11 Climatic data and ET for Upper Beles command area —............................ —-....................................... 41
O
Table 2-12: Evapotranspiration and rainfall for command arra................. .......................-—..................................... 42
Table 2-13: Location of river gauges on Main (Enat) Beles and Gilgel (Abat) Beles (SMEC 2008)
43
Table 2-14: Flow data quality (BCEOM 1999)............ ........... ~...................-........... -.....................................-............... 46
Table 2-15: River gauge description from Abbay Basin Master Plan (BCEOM 1999)....................... ........ . ...............46
Table 2-16: Flow data availability tn Beks catchment.................................... ......... ............................. ..........................47
Table 2-17: LTA monthly flour statistic for Main Beles gauge (1982-2005)—.............. ......... *........ ....... ....... «..........52
Table 2-18: Data gaps in flow records............................................................................................................................... 53
'Fable 3-1: Coordinates of Diversion War (DW) and Dam Site (DS)............................................................................. 55
Tabk 3-2: I^ong term average areal rainfall...........................................—............---------- ~------------------------------- 58
5
Tabk 3 3: Long term average flow (m /s)...««-«.—«......................,«—........... ................«..................«...... «................. 60
Tabk 3-4 Optimised WATBAL parameters............... -............. .............. ............................................. ....... 64
Tabk 4-1 Maximum annual daily rainfall for rain gauges ......................................... —,............................................. 67
Table 4-2: Probabilistic distributions........... —......... «.......... . —........ .......... .................................. ................................ 68
Table 4-3: Design rainfall depths using GU (PWM) distribution......... ....... ........ ..................«..................................... 71
Tabk 4-4: Design rainfalls depth for Upper Beles catchment using a GU (PWM) distribution_________________ 71
Tabk 4-5: Design rainfall depths (24 hr) for Upper Beles catchment«...........................................................................72
Table 4-6: Time of concentration (T ) for the Upper Beks catchment.............................. .......................... ..................72
c
Tabic 4-7; Ranos between maximum daily rainfall / mean rainfall (>25 mm)................. ,..................................... ...... 73
Tabk 4-8 Final design rainfall depths for Upper Beles catchmrnt................... ............... ................................ .... „„...... 73
Tabk 4 9: Rainfall hyetographs for a range of return periods (mm).............................................................................. 74
Tabk 4-10: Adjustments for outliers and length of record for mean and standard deviation..................................... 76
Tabk 4-11 PMP daily (mm)........... -..................... ........ «„.««............... ,.......... ....................................................... ~ 76
Tabic 4-12 24 hour PMP (mm).............. . ................................................................................................................. 77
Tabk 4-13: Areal 24 hour PMP (mm).......................................................................................................................... 77
Tabk 4-14: PMP design rainfall distribution for 24 hour storm applied over Upper Beks catchment....................... 78
Tabk 4-15: Physical characteristics of the catchment upstream of right diversion weir.................... .... .................. 81
Table 4-16: Adopted Tc and R.................................................................................................................................. g4
Table 4-17: Design peak flows (natural conditions).................................................................................................... 85
Tabk 4-18 Diversion weir 1:100 year design flow for wet antecedent condiuons........................................................ 86
Tabk 4-19: 1:100 year design flow for diversion war using SCS method................................................................... 87
Table 4-20: Design peaks for 1:100 year flood using regional equation (BCEOM, 1999).................................................. 88
Tabk 4-21: Statistical summan' of annual maximum flours............ ............................................................................ ggF,M
,fra "' *
Xik !mtjf»o» nd Drw& P^‘f
Tabic 4-22: IJesign flows from fr«J*"Q' •“ F" <
1 GEV
>..................... -............................. .. ............................ ...............
50
Tabic 4-23: Q: /Area relanonship —....................... -........-...... -............................. "....... “"J..................................... %
Table 4-24 Hydraulic results at cross section of the diversion weir (natural conditions;........................................ 92
Table 4-25: Design peak flows (future condition with hvdropower releases of 160 m’/s)......................................... 93
Table 4 26: Design peak flows (future condition with hydropower releases of 77 m’/s)........................................... 93
Table 4-27: Characteristic of catchments of major streams intersecting the right and left bank mam canals
and design peak flows .....................-—............................ — ...................... —— ................................... - “
Table 51: Planned irrigation and dam devdopment in Lake Tana basin......................................................... ............ 99
Table 5-2. Ixmg term average Lake Tana water levels before and after operation of the Chara-Chara weir
(1996)............................................................ -...................................... -................................................................. W
Table 5-3: Lake Tana evaporation using Penman-.Montcith (PM) and Thomthwaite (T)....................................... 112
Table 5-4: Net evaporation (mm) for Lake Tina —................~.......................... ........................................................ 112
Tabic 5-5; Lake Tana reservoir unit deva don storage relationship........................................................... ....... ... 114
Table 5-6:1-ake Tana reservoir unit rainfall and net evaporation...................-...........................................................116
Table 5-7: RAINRUN parameters for gauge and ungauged subcatchments (SC 1-9)............................................... 117
Table 5-8 RAINRUN parameters for gauge and ungauged subcatchments (SC 10-P)..............................................117
Tabic 5-9: Statistic measures between observed and simulated monthly flow ................. . ............................... ......... 118
Table 5-10: Irrigation demands for planned irrigation schemes in Lake Tana basin (Mm')................................... 118
Table 5-H; Storage capacity of existing and planned reservoirs in Tana basin.................... .... ...................... ...........119
7‘able 5-12 Net Evaporation and seepage for reservoirs......................... ....................................................................... 119
Table 5 13 Priority level for 1-ake Tana WRAP .Model............................ .............................. ..................................... 120
Table 5-14: Model scenarios.
...122
Table 5-15: Recommended minimum environmental flow’s over the Tis Issat Falls ....................................... -.........123
Table 5-16: Simulated Lake Tana water level for model scenarios...................................... M............. ..... ........... ....... 125
Tible 5-17: Change in Lake Tana water level................................................_................ ................................................ 126
Table 5-18 Area of 1 .ike Tana ..... .............. ..................... ............ .. ........... .............................._...................................... 127
I able 5-19: Lake Tana water level using Halcrow - GIRD rule (S3) with environmental requirements on
Abbay over based on El A and DRM values......................................................... ............................................... -128
Table 5-20: Partition of 1 jkc Tana outflow to the Abbay and Belos rivers for each model scenario........................ 131
I able 5-21: Comparison of Abba) and Bclcs rivers using Halert)w - GIRD rules (S3) with different
environmental requirements based on EL\ and DRM on Abbay river.-..............................................................B3
Table 5-22: Volume of monthly Tana-Beles hydropower releases for scenarios S2 to S4 ...................................... 136
1 able 5-23: Tana Beies hydropower energy production (GWh).............................. -.............................. -..................... 7 able 5-24: Difference in Tana-Beles hydropower generation compared to model scenario S2-A (SMEC
rule 1784 mas!) ... ............................... ....... ................................ _........................ ...........-........... ........ .................... 141
1 able 5-25 L pper Boles irrigation areas for left & nght bank development and Hyma............................................ 142
Table 5-26: Gross Irrigation Dubes for Upper Beies (including 1 lyma) Project Area....................................... ........ 14.3
I able 5-27; Annual irrigation demand (Option C) for 85.000 ha and lake Tana outflow’ to Bclcs
catchment. ........... ....... .......... ...... ................................................... .... ............~................................. ...................... 144
1 able 5-28: Storage requirement for different areas of irrigation for low. medium, & high irrigation duties (Hakrow - GIRD rule 1.784.75 mad S3).................................. ~............................................................... -........... 149
I able 5 29 Storage requirement for different arras of irrigation for low, medium, & high irrigation dunes (SMEC rule. 1.784.75 masl, S2 B)™....................... ......... ....... .. ...................................... -............... ....... ... ..........]4<]
1 able 5-30; Volume of Beies flow at Dangur dam site flan Apr) with Upper Belts commanded to
50,000 ha and 80,000 ha and 333Mm’ of storage at Dam site 2........................... ............................. .. . 158
VHJPrwATvAr R/fM; 9/Efhitp<i, Mim/rn o(WMrr & Ewf,
p.fhnfMK Nth Irrqpb" DmUfr Pr**1
Table 5-31: Characteristics of of Upper Ac Lower Beks (Dangurl Dam Sites................... —*................. -.................1 59
Table 6-1: Upper Beles dam options and characteristics............................................................................................... 162
Tabk 6-2 l ailurc events and Reservoir Simulation Criteria................................................................ ............ ............ 164
Table 6-3 Charactensiics for Dam site 2 reservoir and adopted water demand................................... -...................... 166
Table 6-4; Total sediment sTjIume at dam locations along the Upper Belts river using a regional estimate
of suspended sediment load ......................................... ~......... ..................—................................. -......................167
Table 6-5: Scheme failure rates at Dam site 2 (Halcrow ■ GIRD operational rule 1 ”84.75 masl)......................... 168
Table 6-6. Scheme failure rates at Dam site 2 (SMEC operational rule 1784/5 masl)................................................. 170
7
Table 6- : Storage requirement for different areas of irrigation for low. medium and high irrigation duties
7
(Halcrow - GIRD operational rule 1784.75 masl S3).................... . ..................................................................... 1 2
Table 6-8: Storage requirement for different areas of irrigation for low. medium, high irrigation duties
(SMEC operational rule 1784/5 masl S2-B)...,«....................................................... •..................................... 172
Table 7-1: Peak flow and volume for % PMF at Dam Site 2..................—........................ ..................................... ™177
fable 7-2 Reservoir attenuation of7a PMF (24 hr PMP) for 230 Mm' of storage for a ringe of spillway
widths (Dam option A/B)„_................................................... ............ -................ .................................................. 178
1
Table 7-3; Reservoir attenuation of ’/i PMF (24 hr PMP) for 3”8 Mm of storage for a range of spillway
widths (Dam option Q............................„........ ~...................-.................... ..........................................——178
Tabk 7-4: Reservoir attenuation of ‘/a PMF (24 hr PMP) for 20 Mm' of storage for a range of spillway
widths (Dam option D)................... ............................................................................................... .. ....................... 179
Tabk 8-1: Land Slope Categories........................ —----- --------------- .............. ................... ............ -............................ 181
Table 8-2 24 hr rainfall depths------------------------------ —------------- .---------- ----------- —........... ...............................183
Tabk 8-3: 24 hr rainfall intensity for Upper Beks catchment................................................ ........................................183
Tabk 8-4: Rainfall intensity for Upper Beles catchment.......................................................... ......... ............ . ............. 183
Tabk 8-5: Runoff coefficients for pervious surfaces by selected hydrologic soil groupings and slope
ranges (ERA 2001)........ ......... ....................... .................. ..................................................... ................................. 184
Tabk 8-6: Frequency factors for rational formula (ERA 2001)...™.—................................... ..................................... 184
Tabk 8-7 Peak flows for 1:5 year return period............................... ........... ,..... .............................................................Ift4
Tabk 8-8: Typical drainage modulus values for a range of slope types (1:5 yr)...........................................................185
Tabk 8-9: Typical drainage modulus values for a range of slope types (1:25 yr)........................ ................................186
Table 8-10: Area Reduction Factors............... ................................................ ...................................................... .......... 186
Tabk 8-11 Comparison of Drainage Modulus Values...................... _........... _................................................................ 187
Table 9-1: Storage requirement for different areas of irrigation for low, medium and high irrigation duties
(Halcrow - GIRD operation rule 1,784.75 masl)............................ ... ...... ..............................................................1914
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1 1: I xk a lion of the Upper Bries Irrigation Projrct area —■••................................. *................... ...........................
Figure 2-|: Pawe climate station at Agricultural Research station ........................................ ..... ... ......................... .......... .............
Figure 2-2: Main Brie* nver at gauge location (October 2009)....„-..................................................................b • .......................... '
Figure 2-3 Gdgd Beks nver at gauge location (October 2009) ...........—............................... -.......—.................................—........
Figure 2-4: Topography of the Upper Belts Project Area........................ «—........ -....... ........... ..... ........... 4,‘............
Figure 2-5 Urea non of hydrometeorological stations in vicinity of Upper Bries......................................... .................... —....... 13
Figure 2-6 Location of rain gauges in the Tana Belts basin............................ ......... ....... -................... -........................... ♦.... . H
Figure 2-7; Number of gauges with monthly rainfall data (I960 to 2006)
..... -.........14
Figure 2 8 Scatter plot for Pawe monthly rainfall dan compared to Mandura data.................................................. ....... -........ 1H
Figure 2-9: Scatter plot for Pawe monthly rainfall data compared to Chagru data.......................................... ........ ....... ........
Figure 2-10; Scarier plot for t.higm monthly rainfall data compared to Kidamaja data.................................. -.................... 19
Figure 2-11; Scatter plot for Dangtla monthly rainfall data compared to Kidamaja data..-................................................ -20
Figure 2-12: Regression analyses for Pawe rain gauge using Chagm as a donor gauge................................ . ........................ 20
Figure 2-13: Annual rainfall from co-kriging for Tana Beks catchmenr.......................................... ...... ........................ •..... ..... 25
Figure 2-14: Annual rainfall isohyets from co kriging for the Upper Beles projeer area...................................................... 26
Figure 2-15- Mean, 80° □ dependable, and cffectivr rainfall for the Upper Bdes project ...................... ............................... 27
Figure 2-16: Monthly maximum temperature (1980-1993)..................... ........ ....................... .................... .. .......... .............. .....29
Figure 2-1”; Monthly maximum temperature (1994-2008). ..........................................................................„ ................... .....30
Figure 2-18 Long term average maximurn temperature at Pawe and Chagm nuuons (unfilled data) ......................................31
Figure 2-19 Correlation between maximum temperature date recorded
Figure 2-20; Correlation between maximum temperature data recorded
at Pawc and Chagm stations 32
al Pawe and Mandura stations... 32
Figure 2-21; Long term average maximum temperature at Pawc climate station (infilled)..................................... . —..............33
Figure 2-22: Monthly minimum temperatures (1980 — 1993)...-,,..,—,................................................. .................... . ................ ,34
Figure 2-23: Monthly minimum temperatures (1994 — 2008)....,....,..,.__________________________________________ 34
Figure 2-24: Long term average minimum temperature at Pawe and Chagru station (unfilled data)....................................... 35
Figure 2-25; CoExclabon between minimum temperature data recorded ar Pawe de Chagm stations............................. ........ 35
Figure 2-26: Ixmg trrm average minimum temperature al Pawc and Chagni climate station (filled data)-, 36
Figure 2-27; Relative humidity' measurements (2000 — 2005).............................................................. . ....... . ............ ............ 37
Figure 2-28: Sunshine hour measurements (1987 — 1997).,......................... ......................... ................... ..................................... 38
Figure 2-29: Sunshine hour measurements (1998 — 2008)..................................... ....................................... ............................Mli 38
Figure 2-30 Wind speed measurements (1987 -2005).......................................................................................................... „...4O
Figure 2-31: Long term average climatic dad and ETo for Upper Beks command area ........................................................... 41
Figure 2-32: Seasonal variations in reference evapotranspiration
 ,„„„42
Figure 2-33: Staff gauge at Main Beles (East) river gauge......................................................................................................... 44
Figure 2-34: Main Enat Beles river upstream of bridge.................... . ........................................................................................ 44
Figure 2-35; Data lt>ggcr for Gilgd Beks gauge ............. ......................................................................................................... 45
Figure 2-36: Ciilgrl Bdes nver downstream of road budge......................... ............................................................................ 45
Figure 2-37: Availability of flow and level data.,,...................................................................................................................... 47
Figure 2-38: Mean monthly observed flows related to mean annual flow................................ .. ................................................. 48
Figure 2-39: Monthly flow in Main Beks and Gdgd Beks gauges (1985 — 1990) Figure 2-40: Monthly flow’s tn Main Beks and Gdgd Beks gauges (1990 - 2005) Figure 2 41: Monthly flows »t Main Beles and Gilgd Beks river gauges (1962 - 2005)
Figure 2-42: Correlation between monthly flows at Main Beks and Gilgd Bdcs gauges Figure 2-43; Double mass plot of monthly flow ai Main Bdes and Gilgd Beks gauges (1982-2005)51
49
49
50
50. .................................................... _................ „....................... ............. -............94
Figure 5-1. Footbridge over Jahan a (Enat Beles tributary) d/s of hydro-power outlet............................................ 101
Figure 5-2. Like Tana monthly lake levels from 1960 to 2006..................................-...................-.......... —................ 102
Figure 5-3. Lake I ana level exceedance curves for before and after the operation of Chan-Chara weir 102
Figure 5-4: Natural and regulated lake outflow for Tis Abbav power stations.................... ...................................... 103
Figure 5-5: Lake I ana long term average monthly lake levels...........................................-..........................................104
Figure 5-6: Operational rule using minimum lake level of 1784.0 masl (SMEC, 2008)........................................... 106
Figure 5- Operation rule using minimum lake levels of 1784.75 masl (SMEC, 2008)..................................................J06
I igurc 5 8 Halcrow — GIRD operation rule using minimum lake levels of 1 84. 5 masL..,.,...................................... 10
Figure 5-9. Schematic of RAINRL’N rainfall runoff .......... ........................................-.......... ~............... —................ 111
Figure 5 10: Schcmatjsation of WEAK model of Lake Tana basin and Beles HEP.................................................... j J 5
Figure 5-11: Calibration for Lake Tana from 1960 - 1995 (natural).......................... —•»*.... -................................... 121
I igurc 5-12. Recommended monthly environment*! flow requirements on reach of Abbay over including Tis Issar Falls from ElA (Bdhcr et aL 1997) and DRM (McCartney et aL 2009)................................ ............. 123
Figure 5-13: Simulated lake levels for each model scenarios —.................................. —— ............... .................... |24
f iguxe 5-14 Simulate long term average lake levels for each model scenarios...................... .......................................^5
Figure 5-15 Probability if exceedence of Lake Tana water levels...................... ................................ ... ................. 126
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Fizurc 2-44 Mean, m.«imum, and minimum flow .Mam Belts gauge ..... ........................................... -................. 52
hlgurc 2-45 Monthly flow kveb at Main Bel« at bridge and Gilgel Belts nr Mandura........................... ..................5J
Figure 2-46 Lake Tana monthly lake levels from 1960 to 2006................... -........................................................... ..
1
Figure 2-47 Lake Tana lake levels recorded from satellite altimetry .............................................................. .. .... 54
Figure 31 Upper Beles stage development and land slopes.................... -.................. -............................................. %
Figure 3-2. Locations and contributing catchmrnts to dam and diversion weir........................................ ............ 57
Figure 3-3 Monthly mean, maximum, and minimum flow at Main Beles at bridge gauge (1982 - 2005) 59
Figure 3-4. Monthly catchment average rainfall for catchment to Mam Beles gauge al Bridge and Flow .59
Figure 3-5: Long term average flows under natural conditions................................................................................ 61
Figure 3-6: Conceptualization of the water balance of the WATBAL model...........................................................61
Figure 3-7: Calibrated model for Main Beles at Bridge fl992 - 2002)........................................................................64
Figure 3-8: Validated model for Mun Beles at Bodge (1984-1990)............... ...............................-............................ 64
Figure 3-9: WATBAL modelled flow for diversion weir (right) from 1982 to 1994................~........... ....... —........65
Figure 3-10. WATBAL modelled flow for diversion weir (nght) from 1995 to 2005................................................ 65
Figure 3-11 Comparison of estimated flow at diversion weir (nght)............................................................ .......... . 66
Figure 4-1: Rainfall frequency analysis for Pawe.................„„....................................................................................69
Figure 4-2 Rainfall frequency analysis for Dangila............ .......... ......... ....... ................... ........ ................................... 70
Figure 4-3; Rainfall frequency analysis for Gorgora.............. ...................................................................................... 70
Figure 4-4. Design storm hyetograph for Upper Beles catchment (1 100 yr) ............................................................. ^4
Figure 4-5: A schematic of Upper Beles River upstream of nght bank diversion wcir.~........................................... 80
Figure 4-6 Design hydrograph for storage site and diversion weir for 1:100 year return period (natural
condition*)......................... ....................................................................... .................................. ........... ............ .... 86
Figure 4-7: Frequency analysis of annual maximum flood for Main Beles at bndge .................................................89
Figure 4-8: Frequency anilysis of annual maximum flood for Gilgd Beles near Mandura........................................ 89
Figure 4-9: Hydraulic long profile for T=l:2, 1:10, 1:50 and 1:100 years (natural conditions)................................. 91
Figure 4-10: Maximum levels at Drversion Weir cross section for T=l:2» 1:10, 1:50 and 1 100 years
(natural conditions)............... _..................................... ..... ..... ............ .. .... .................................. .................... — 91
Figure 4-11: Streams intersecting the Upper Bdes Right and Left Main canals and Catchment
Schemarisation.........................
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Figure 5-16: Environmental flow requirements anti simulated Abbay flows at Tis Issat using model
seen ano S3 (ETA)-....................... ,•............—.............. ..................... ................................. ..................... .......... .-—134
Figure 5-17: Environmental flow requirements and simulated Abbay flows at Tis Issat using model
scenario S3 (DRM).............................. ~.......... ——......... .... ................ -«•-— ——.............................. .......................... 134
Figure 5-18 Long term average monthly Tana-Belts hydropower releases for model scenarios S2 through
to S4 .............. ................. ................. ............... ........................... ......—.................. . ....... .......... ........... ..............................137
Figure 5-19 Probability of excrrdcnce ofTana-Bde* hydropower releases
.................. -...-137
Figure 5-20: Hydropow er releases, Belts natural flows and lake levels (S2 to S3).................................................... . ............. 138
r
Figure 5-21: Grms irriganon duties for Upper Bclcs (including Hyma) ..................................... -—................... ............ 144
Figure 5-22: Irrigation demand (Option C - high), available flow, and surplus and deficit at right bank
diversion weir for lou , medium and high irriganon area (Halcrow GIRD rule S3).................................. . .... ........... 146
r
Figure 5-23: Irrigation demand (Option C - high), available flow, and surplus and deficit at right bank
diversion weir for low, medium and high irrigation area (SMEC rule S2 B)............................................... . ........ .. 14"
Figure 5-24: Total irrigation demand, "live' storage, dam height (H alert jw - GIRD rule),....................... .........................151
Figure 5-25: Total irrigation demand, ‘live* storage, and dam height (SMFC rule). ......................... ................................... 153
Figure 5-26. Location of Dangur dam site for Lower Belts.........................................—................ ...... ...................... . ............ I 56
Figure 5 2" Bries river flow at Dangur dam and conmbuoon from Upper Beks catchment (50,000 ha)
................................... ............................ ..... ..... ................. ....... .. ............ ............................. ............. -.......... ......................157
Figure 5-28: Monthly Belts flow at Dangur dam with and without upstream Upper Belts Scheme
operating for 50.000 ha (Halcrow GIRD rule)................................................................................................................... 157
Figure 6-1: Elevation - Storage Charactcnsnc for Dam Site 2____________ __ ______________ ___ ____ ____ ______ 161
Figure 6 2: Storage volume to area relationship for Dam site 2.................. ......... ........................ ....................................... 161
Figure 6 3 Irrigation demand, gross storage, and dam height (Hakrow - GIRD rule). ____ ____________ 173
Figure 6-4: Irrigation demand, gross storage, and dam height (SMEC rule 1784.75 mad)................................ 175
Figure 7-1: Reservoir attenuation of‘/a PMF (24 hr PMP) at Dam Site 2 dam options A/B C and D for a
spillway width of 50m.................... .................. .............. ............... .................................. ........................... ................ ...... jjg
Figure 8-1: Run fail regions (ERA, 2001 
........................ ........................ .................................... .................... 182
Figure 9 1 Hakrow - GTRD operation rule using minimum lake levels of 1784.75 mail ................................... ..................... 190
Xltlprdrr*/
Kyyrhf.
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abbreviations and acronyms
ARCGIS arcswat AMAX ARE BCEOM
CN
CROPWAT DEM DRM
DS
DU-
EDA
EEPCO
EJA
ERA
ETB
ETIIIO-GLS
ETm
EXP
FAO
FD
FDS
FRA
FSL
GTS
GU
GEV HEC-HMS IDF
1PCC ircz
L1A
NMSA
MDI.
MFR
MoWE
PET
PMP
PMF
RCF
SD
SEI
SCS
SMEC
ARCGIS softwue
Arc Swat Hydrological Software
Annual Maximum
AreaJ Reduction Factor
French Engineering Consultants in association with BRGM and IS I Curve Number
Crop Water Requirement
Digital Elevation Model
Desktop Reserve Model
Dam Site
Diversion Weir
Exploratory Data Analysts
Ethiopian Electnaty and Power Cooperation Environmental Impact Assessment
Ethiopian Road Authority
Ethiopian Birr
Ethiopian G1S
Reference Evapotranspiration
Exponential
Food and Agriculture Organisation
Full Development of Water Resources
Full Development Scenario (including Tana Belts Scheme) Flood Risk Area
F ull Supply Level
Geographical Information System GumbcJ Distribution
General Extreme Value
HEC Hydrologic Modelling System Intensity Duration Frequency International Panel for Climate Change Inter Tropical Convergence Zone
National Meteorological Services Agency Minimum Drawdown Level
Minimum Flow Requirement
Ministry of Water and Energy
Potential Evapotranspiration
Probable Maximum Precipitation Probable Maximum Flood
Rainfall correction Factor
Standard Deviation
Stockholm Educational Institute
Soil Conservation Service
Snowy Mountain Engineering Company
rV'tdtrui Dr/Hocrntic Rspubdc of Ethiopia. Mtnijfn o/Wattr e^EnrrjQ P.rbioftaH Wit Irrigation and Drurna^e Pnfra
SRTM
USAGE
Shuttle Radar Thematic Mapper
Unites States Army Corp of Engineers
USDA
Unite States Department of Agriculture
VEF
Vanable Environmental Flow
WATBAL
Water Balance software
WEAP
Water and Planning Evaluation
System
developed
by 
SEI
WMO
VCWDScSE
World Meteorological Organisation
Water Works Design and Supervision Enterprise
XVII'ifitnzi
.M/mitry sf ITdfrr rt* Fri^i
F/Mpwff Ndr I'?!&&** at J Pfwm# Pntt.r
1 INTRODUCTION
This supplementary report forms pan of the Upper Bdes Darn feasibility study and contains a detailed account of the hydrological analysis leading to an assessment of the available water resources in the Beles calchment and the potential for developing irrigation in the U pper Bclcs catchment from upstream flow releases from the Tana Belts hydropower station rhe nerd tor
any storage requirements on the Belts river is also del ailed.
The Upper Bdts project is located in the Beks nver sub-basin in the west central portion of the Abbay river basin (Figure 1-1). The main Bcles over originates at the foot of the escarpment dividing it from lake Tana to the south-west The project area essentially comprises the upper catchments of the Mun or Enat and the Gilgd or Abac Beks nvers and their tn butanes, with land devanons king between about 1,000 mas I ind 1,300 mas I. fhe general plan is to command this area by diverting water from the Beks river delivered from the upstream I ana Beks hydropower Scheme.
In this study wc develop a. water balance model of Lake Tana incorporating the existing and planned future water resource developments in the Tana and adjacent Beks catchments. The objective of this modelling is to examine rhe operation rules for the Tana-Belts hydropower for transferring water for imganon tn the Beks catchment without impacting Lake I ana water Irveh, or environmental release to the Abbay rivet, or electricity production.
In this study we re-examined (he lake opera non al rule curves developed by SMEC (2008) and present a modified Hakrow - GIRD operational rule. The intent of the Hakrow - GIRD
operation rule is to divert more water for irrigation during the anneal months of the dry seasons, from January to April, by storing more water in Lake Tana in the wet seasons and riming releases to coincide with this peak imganon demand period, whilst at rhe same time preserving minimum waler levels in Lake Tana and maximising electricity production, and avoiding environmental detriment.
In this study we also examines whether reservoir storage is required on the Enai Belts river to suppkment Tana Beks hydropower releases during the short periods of high demand during critical months of the dry season (£e. January - April) when shortfalls in supply for irrigation occur when lake levels are ar or dose to rhe minimum opcrauonal level, or if the power station is not operated as planned (i.e. in accordance with recommended operating rules), or because of maintenancc/or plant failure (ire. tunnel collapse) If there is no provision of storage on the Enat Beks there is potential for extensive crop failure in the Upper Bries (Hyma) project area
We also determine the area of imgarion that can be development sustainably in the Upper Bele% (Hyma) caichment before storage is required on the Enat Bcles nver. Any storage requirement on the Enat Beks nver would be used io meet short (dry season) periods of high (irrigation' demand to (partly) mitigate against crop failures in the command area.
The report discusses the compilation and assessment of all availabk hydro-meteorological data from Stations in and around the Belts rher basin. Data gaps are identified and the techniques for in-filling missing data are described. The report also outlines the climatic data used for thei
of reference Mpotnnspmtion in FAO CROPWAT for the derivation of Onp
Lcr tetiturtmenis and overall irngabon demands for the command area. The method used csuminng runfdl from point observations using co-kriging geo-statistical techniques i$
detailed
This study renews the available flow data for the Beles nvex and presents a methodology to
extend the flow data senes to better assess available surface water resources llie monthly uvaihbility’ of water received at the tight bank diversion weir is modelled, as is the amount of witer to divert to the whole (left and nght bank) Upper Beles command area. The surplus and deficit balance in available water to meet monthly irrigation demands for different levels of development in die Upper Beles project is also examined to determine any storage
requirements As the area of irrigation is increased a level of development is reached w hen months of surplus water availability arc replaced with months of deficit, after which storage on the Belts nver is required to supplement flow received from upstream to met the full irrigation demands
Reservoir simulation modelling is used to model reservoir behaviour and to determine the required storage so that water demands from the command area arc satisfied for different levels of irrigation development. The storage capacity of the reservoir is determined for different imgincm areas for low, medium, and high lmgation duties and for upstream flow releases based on different openuonal rules for the Tana-Beles scheme
This report details the approach to flood hvdrologv, £e. the estimation of the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and probable maximum flood (PMF). The flood hydrology* amh bis is then used to size storage reservoir and their spillway capacity, as well as to investigate reservoir flood attenuation and outflow for designing anv downstream diversion weir(s) / structures.
The feasibility study also examines design flood estimates al cross drainage point where nvers streams pass across the proposed left and nght bank main irrigation canals
The report presents the drainage module calculations required to design the surfice drainage '■Mem in the command area, dominated mainly by poor draining black clay vertisols and red day soils to remove standing surface waler produced from heavy rainfall flood hydrologs mat be used to sue flood protection / estimate extent of along the larger drains / streams / nvers
, ‘h Res™,. (2)Frarrtf UrwwTMflr Rrwtfra afE/iifia, AfaruAj rf ff~Jtrr C~E*rrp X tJr Irwj&twr mJ Dnatt^gt Profit
r
Figure 1*1: Location of the Upper Bel« Irrigation Project area
—
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3
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1
2 CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL DATA
21 Ctimare
In the BcJcs over sub-basin, the highest rainfall occurs in the central pan of rhe basin. In This area the average annual rain tall ranges between 1,400 mm. to more than 1,900 mm. Ibe Lipper Bries irrigation project lies in the upper pirt of the Bclcs fiver sub-basin and this northern part experiences moderate rainfall with an annual fain fall nf about 1.471 mm.
Rainfall in dir Upper Be les area ha*. 1 pronounced seasonal pattern, typified by a short wet season from July ■<* .September, and a long dry season The rainfall pattern lias 1 mono-modal distribution dominates by die Kiremt rains. The closest climate station is ar Pa we at an altitude of 1J 19 mad (Figure 2-1). The Pawe meteorological station lies in the southern part of the potential project area and records from Pawc show average monthly rainfall of 250 mm tn June; 389 mm in July; 35" mm in August and 251 mm in September On average 81% of the annual rainfall tails dunng these four wet months; the annual average rainfall ar Pawe is 1,542 ttutl The 'dry' season i$ from November through (o March The Pi we climate station 15 situated in the mid-section of the Belts river where rainfall is generally higher.
This seasonal pin rm in rainfall influences the annual variation of all climatic parameters Ihe climate in the project area is warm and sub-tropical. The mean annual temperature al Pawe is about 2-1.5°C ranging from a km* nf 22,7°C in August (when cloud persists) to 28°C in April prior to the rains stirring. The average monthly relative humidity is 74% and remains high
throughout the wet months. Relative humidity peaks at
ar the height of rhe wet season in
August, falling to a low of 59% at the end of the dry season in ApriL The average monthly wind speed is about 0.65 m/s rising to a maximum monthly value of (L95m/s in May The annual evaporation has been estimated at about 1.491 mm,
Figure 2-1: Piwe climate station at Agricultural Research station
Ub IM SfOla Waler Heuuurceji (2]
5
Il-May-11Fedfrut DfmOiTjrrc R/pMtc of Ethiopia. Minitfr, of W ater C~ E<r/p
Ethiopian Nrir Irrigation and Druinaft Pnyti.1
2.2 Hydrology
Lake Tana is a shallow freshwater lake and is the largest in Ethiopia with an area of 3.156 1^: and (he third largest in the Nile Basin Shortly after leaving the lake, the river reaches the celebrated Tis Abbay falls, thereafter flowing in a deep and nigged gorge to the Sudan botder. Two major tnbutaries join the Abbay in the lowlands, the Dabus on the left bank and the ikies the only major right bank tributary, before flowing directly to Sudan joining the Blue Nile.
TTic L’ppex Bclcs irrigation project essentially comprises the upper catchments of the Main Boles and Gilgel (Abat) Boles rivers and their tributaries, with land elevations lying between 1,000 masl and 1,300 masl. Tlic main Belcs river or the Enat Beles originates from the face of an escarpment in the high mountain range (at about 2,250 masl) separating the Enat Belcs basin on the west side from Lake Tana. 'Hie Enat Beles begins where the tributaries of die Kassan and Jehana rivers join, whereby the latter receives flow from die outlet funnel of Tana Beks hydropower scheme draining I-akc Tana, llie Enat Bclcs river lies in the central and north western part of the Abbay basin flowing in a south westerly direction
The headwaters of the Bclcs river and its left bank tributaries arc to be found m rhe steep slopes rising to over 2,500 masl of die western escarpment and mountain range running from Shahura in die north-east, to the Kar mountain range near Chagni in the south-w’cst. ’Die right bank tributaries of the Beles nver nsc in less steep terrain, to the west rising to 1,600 masl, which is the catchment divide between the Beles river and the head water tributaries of the Ayima over.
Overall, the Bclcs river has a catchment area of about !3,5 3 km and a total length of 319 km before it meets the Abbay (Blue Nile) nver. ’Hie Enat Beles nver is gauged at a bridge crossing on the road some 4 km north west of the town of Gilgel Bclcs, downstream of the town of Pawc. The catchment area to this gauge is 3.431 km-. At this point the river has a mean annual flow of 56 m'/s.
The Gilgel Bclcs river (not to confused with the Gilgel / Abat Beles)* 1 is a large primafy tributary of the Enat Belcs and is gauged at die town of Gilgel Beles. not far from Mandura This tributary has a catchment area of 675 km- wnth a mean annual flow of 17 m'/s. Figure ?-2 and figure 2-3 show the Enat and Gilgel Bclcs at these gauging locations.
The total gauged area of the entire Belcs nver basin is about 4.106 ktn2, approximately 30% of the total Bclcs catchment before it reaches the Abbay of about 13.573 km-
l*hc runoff as expected follows rhe seasonal rainfall pattern typified by a short *w long ‘dry’ season. The seasonal pattern of runoff is more pronounced with o ]^ Scas°n and
7:
n
high flows during the *wet’ season from July through to October. Typica|jv fo UF n,Onrhs of at the road-bndge gauging stauon, flow’s reach 135 m'/s in July, pea kin u m a
K
‘" “Su...,236m,/s
^ nat Bries
A
1 There are twv Gilgel Bclcs riverc (i) the Gilgel or Abat Belo river aaanaated with rhe Work Af <l
c a p|
projcci area |Oinmg rhe Main ex Knar Bclc« river well n«rh uf l*awi; and fn) the Gi^»er
nt the project area and is gauged near ro where it j<«ns the Enat Hclc» nver close rej GiLj-q .
C r
throy^ j js•
I >b J’4 Sr<Ha W atrr Resources (2)
6
1 ^fay-11Afroi/fr J/ irafcr & iiftrr^y «W Irr^-MW a*d Dr.jrffjp PfW,1
and declining to 165 m'/s in September Dry season flows from December through to average about 3 m*/$ but can drop to about 1.4mVs tn April.
Apnl
The TaiU-Bdes hydropower scheme is complete and was commissioned on 14’ May 2010
h
whereby rdexses from the tunnel arc passed down stream along the ■ Jehana river, a tributary of the Enat Beks, significantly changing its hydrological and morphological regime. The operation of the hydropower scheme will dictate outflows to the Enat Beles river which will lx- superimposed on the natural flow regime of this river. The operational rules arc as follows (SMEC 2008):
• Minimum operating level of Lake Tana will be 4-1,784 mas!;
• Average of 77 in Vs will be released through the Bdes power plant over a wide range of lake levels;
Ub 74 Srt>] a U iter Itoix»rcc ’ (2)
7
13. Muy-11tyrtr vfEthiopia. Mini*) of W
Etbnftitn K* ! motion anti Dnimaft Pro/ea
• Discharges will be increased to 160 m'/s al high lake levels; and
. Discharges will be stopped whenever the lake level declines to + 1,7*4 masl.
The natural flow regime of the Enat Bcles will be changed as some 70% of the natural outfit from Lake Tana will be diverted to the Bcles basin resulting in:
• A 30 fold increase in natural flows in the upper part of the Upper Beles area (in the | china tributary);
• Doubling of the average discharge near Gilgel Beles town at the lower end of scheme area; and
• A 44) fold increase tn baseflow during the low’ flow period (in April).
2,3 River morphology and L^ind Forms
llie headwaters of the Enat Beles river and its left bank tributaries arc co be found in the scarp
slopes rising to over 2,500 masl in the western escarpment and mountain range running from
Shahiira in the north-east, to the Kar mountain range near Chagni in the south-west. The right
bank tributaries of rhe Enat Beles river rise in less steep terrain to rhe west from typically alx>u:
1,600 mask this being the catchment divide between the Bcles River and head water tributaries
of the Alima River (Figure 2-4). Morphologically two rivers dominate the plan-form of the
potential development area:
• The PlnaL Bcles rising in the north east whose spate flow’s have created rhe classic plan
form of an upper alluvial fan. lying betu’em approximately latitudes 110° 42” and 11°
36”. and
• The Abat Bcles rising in the cast which has created its own upper alluvial fan. Ring between approximately longitudes 36° 43” and 36” 39”.
Downstream of these rough-surfaced upper fan areas, both rivers have set down classic middle- reach alluvial fan areas, the Abat Beles represented by the so called W’ crka Xlcda Plain (to the south of the Firint Ridge land-form), and the Enat Bcles by the Decabay Plain These dominant morphological "plain” features intersect at approximately latitude 11*»26”, Lc. at the confluence of the two rivers.
Superimposed on this underlying morphology arc numerous tributary rivers which cross and dissect the major fans, creating second-order morphological features represented by incised valleys, and gendc through to steeply undulating land-forms Unsurprisingly, rhe shorter and steeper nvers in the north cast have created steeper and more dissected terrain than have the rivers in the north-western part of die area.
In the lower part of the project area which is broadly south of the Kctrb River and do to Gilgel Beles, the valley of the combined Enat and Abat rivers has broadened and nsrrcam morphology is dominated by the valleys of rhe left and right bank tributaries The
with the ternary drainage system they have imposed, have created a generally roll to£ her
cr
moderately undulating terrain. In summan' therefore, three broad types of hr I c °f
the study basin;
Broad, plain areas of land in the north-west (the Dcrrbay plainj
Meda plain);
d for™ cxistin
’ nd Ccn,r’l part (VC erk
lib J-4 Srf'la Waler Resource* (2)
8Fr/frrW PfMMFW Kxt^***^i Miiuftn u/irrftr cw t £?jW'i55fiff*' JV/i* IrrjgaftM md Draitfdgf Pnpuf
* Rough, incised alluvial fin areas in the north-east (Enat Beks) part, andon a s miller stale* the far cast (Abat Bries); and
• Narrow ndgr topography in the southern pans.
L b P4 Nd Un Water Resource* (2;
9
13-Mav 11tf&biw. A/rW/Zr,
EUMptM Xilf lmptwr, aK J Drwn^c Pryt
j
.-p&faw/ iDhrwfttruu'i’i.'
Afurrtp ftfll"k/w cta'E w^p-
E/ft'^lhtiur N^'r /hgptffflj# fli*^ Drwftygf
2.4 Clfm*te and Aydrefogy dM tnurres
Meteorological data throughout the Ah bay basin arc generally good »nd cxicroive, Rainfall data are available throughout rhe Abbay basin from which previous studies have already extracted the most reliable data. A sound, statistically validated hydro meteorological database has been compiled for the Upper Belts Irrigation Scheme Feasibility Study Hydro meteorological data hive been collected from the following sources:
• National Meteorological Services Agent)- (NMSA)
• Ministry of Water Resources (MoWE)
• Pawe Agricultural Research Station (PARS)
• FAO. from CL1MWAT filers giving average monthly values
• Datasets previously compilrd by the Abbay River Basin Mastrr Tian Project. BCEOM (1999) and the T Ivdrological Studies of the Tana-Bdes Sub Basins. SiMEC (2008).
• Sediment sampling of Upper Bclc« river
This data compilation has been achieved through:
• Collection of data provided by the NMSA and MoWE and from previous studies and updating of all relevant river flow, lake level and meteorological data,
• Advice from MoWH on flow records and any recent updates or changes to rating
Curves.
[ luwevcr, a numher of structural problems have been identified with the climatic station network and these include; (i) long periods of missing data; (ii) lack of data homogeneity at many stations; and (tui some discrepancies in data sets. We have addressed these problems as part of tins study, and use appropriate Mattstical techniques to in-till dan and extend/rep be ate time-series data, where necessary. Our approach has included:
• Coliecnon and review of all recent climatic and meteors logical data,
• Review of previous reports and note any recommendations on data quality;
■ Undertake quality analysis of data collected that may be available using Minitab software tr. preliminary exploratory data analysis (EDA),
• Data quality checks are performed on station data and any outliers are idenlilird and removed.
Climate and rainfall data were received as both soft copy and hard copy from the NMSA- Systematic checks of original hardcopy data were made to check for data entrv errors, and a check on the location of the statmns was made Checks were also made for any inconsistent data series (Le. any unacceptable inter annual vanabon of basic parameters). Hard copy dam were manually entered uiiu Excel spreadsheets Time-senes plots were produced using a common data frame of 1980-2005 to assist tn cross station companion. EDA also involved comparing the highest value fur each station against data for neighbouring stations for the month Scalier
plots of station rainfall and dimare dan again si neighbouring stations were used to identify outliers. Each station was analysed for the correlanun between its rainfall or climate data and that of neighbouring stations io identify anomalous points to remove. The EDA tor die rainfall da la is discussed in more detail in Section 2.6 and for ihr climate data in Section 2.10.
t’b F4 NfOh Water Rnources Tj
11
13-May IIEed^/Df^h.K^iM. itEtbiafio.Miniatn afWatrr&Ei^
Elhitpm A» lm^hon aid Draw? Prvjtft
2 f Rainfall data available
The project area essentially comprises the upper catchments of the Enat and Abat Beles h^ and their tributaries, with land elevations lying between 1,000 masl and 1,200 masl. Thedo^ climate stations to the Upper Beles project area are: (i) at Pawc located in the project area fo) a Mandura about 28 km south east of the Pawe station; and (in) at Chagni about 45 km souths of Pawc (iv) at Dangila roughly 47 km to the cast of the Pawe station lying on top escarpment up to 1,000 m higher in elevation (v) at Kunzila to the north cast located along the western shoreline of Lake Tana higher by about 700 m F igure 2 5 shows the location of these hydro meteorological stations. The monthly rainfall data (unfilled) are presented tn Annex Al to AS
Table 2-1 give the co-ordinates and elevation for these climate stations. Pawc, Dangila and Chagni arc all Class 1 stations (i.e. rainfall, temperature, sunshine, humidity, wind speed), whereas Mandura and Kunzila arc both class 4 stations (i.e rainfall only). The co-ordinates of die Pawe station have been taken using a GPS during a field visit lor this study, rhe Pawe climate station is locates! tn the compound of die .Agriculniral Research Station, close to the settlement of Pawe well witlun the project area. SMEC (2008) erroneously located the Pawe climate station in the extreme south of the project area along the Mandura — Mctekcl road.
Tabic 2-1: Lise of climate stations close to
er Beles Scheme (SMEC 2008)
Station
Latitude
(Degree)
Longitude
(Degree)
Elevation
(masl)1
Class
’Pawc
11.31
36 41
1.110
1
Chagni
10.95
36 50
1.620
1
Mandura
11.09
36 42
1.290
4
Dangila
11.25
36.83
2.000
1
Kunzila
11 87
37.03 1.800
4
’ [-oration from GPS at Pawe station
Rainfall data were provided by NMSA for the Pawc, Mandura, Chagni, Dangila and Kunzila stations and are assessed for missing data. The selected stations have the most complete records of data, and were geographically close to the project area, and all have good data quality The Pawc rain gauge has daily rainfall for a pc nod from 1987 to 2008. a record length of 21 years, whereas the Mandura ram gauge has a longer record length of daily rainfall from 1972 to 2006 a period of 34 years. Chagni has 31 years of data from 1973-2004. and Dangila rain gauge has 46 years of daily rainfall data from I960 to 2006. Kunzila has daily nunfall of from 1981 to 2005 but with considerable data gap* ’Hie daily rainfall data for the five stations arc provided m Annex A6 to A10
I lowever, all the gauges have missing data years and periods with missing daily rainfall d u during the wet season months (Table 2-2). Pawe rain gauge has 20 years, Chagni has Mandura ram gauge has 19 years, and Dangila gauge has 35 years of complete dail • Kunzila has the shortest record for daily rainfall of only 6 years from 198] (o 200" data that are used in the estimation of probable maximum precipitation (PMP)
■ '****'
data
^ CSC
Ub 1-4 NrO1a \\ j!ct Resources (2)
12
U-May-11Dflwsmrfti
1u
n/’lFWr' c. 7iw^p
Jjjtorfyw iVrA1 ZrT7i’i?j,.|i-
1n
/MjaT
Table 2-2: Complete and partial missing rainfall data yearn
■ ’ S ------------- ■------------------
Rjin
Pc nod of rainfall ifaia
AtaifabilirY
Milling* cfaia year*
Piulfal miming dma year*’
1
Pawc
1987-2008
1991
C uharris
1973 200+
1991 1997
1990. 1998
Mjndiuxs
1972-2006
19794981, 1991 2002,2005
1983 J 984,2002
DangiLi
106i>2x<J6
19704973, 1979-1986,1990
1968
Kunzila
1981-2005
1991 1996,1998-20*)+ 1 1083, lWt 1989, 1990. 1997.2005
■Miwinjjt J.ira in uh.-|: sea sun mfflam*
Observed monthly rainfall data from run gauges in rhe vicinity of the Upper Beks project area ate interpolated In areal rainfall using co-kriging techniques. Areal rainfall is required to estimate die monthly dependable and effective rainfall for the command area to calculate crop water requirements. The diimbutkm of ran gauges tn the vicinity of the project area it relatively
sparse Monthly rainfall data is available for ~ stations within about 100 km of the lipper Brie (figure 2-6) with a total of 2^ stations available tn the Tana Beks catchment Monthly rainfall data were supplied in digital format and hard copy format from the NMSA for gauges in the
I ana Bries catchment. The rain gauges selected to estimate areal rainfall ire presented tn Table 2-3. The missing monthly data vanes for each rain gauge as summamed tn Table 2-4 For the period I960 onwards the records ate more complete. Table 2-5 and Figure 2-"
I ib F+ Sri) fa Waler Kcsuimre* (2)
13
13-May-]]F^l D'nv.rrt.
o! Elhi^a.
ofV ^r &
LfteopM* Nik !motion jitd Dnnna^ P^.r
Mr Sid satellite imagery (2<MM>)
Figure 2-7: Number of gauge* with monthly rainfall data (I960 to 2006)
I 1
1I
i
Ub F4 SrOJa Water Rmourecs (2)
14
13-Mayl1fata/
d/7Mrw.rfr. ijf JF^ <-
EfHqifM Xfjt /fwl’/ow t/*d Dwtf Pftyrf
Table 2-3: Rain
used for esrimating areal rainfall
Rain gauge
La tirade
(Degree)
Longitude
(Debtee)
Elevation
(mail)1
Claw
Adder
11,26
37.49
1 2080
_I
Addis Ze men
12.13
37.78
1850
3
Amba Giorgis
12.77
37.60
2900
4
Aykrl
12.53
37.05
2150
1
IHhr Hit
11.60
37.36
1770
1
Chandiba
12.39
37.03
2025
3
Chafpii
10.95
36.50
1620
1
Chca-ahit
1231
37 22
1800
4
Dangih
11.25
36.83
2000
1
Dek Eslatinos
11.91
37.27
1815
4
tJdp
12.19
37.04
1780
4
Enjibara
36.92
1098
2572
4
FnCrariic
1X18
37.68
1950
3
Gondar
12.55
37.42 |
1967
1
Corpora
1235
3730
1830
3
I lamusl
11.78
37.55
1850
4
Kjdfinkip
11-00
36.68
2450
4
Miksegnit
1235
37.56
1935
3
Mund tin
11.09
36.42
1290
4
Pi we
11.51
36.41
1110
1
Sekdi
11.00
3732
2690
4
Titi Abba*.'
11.48
37 58
16211
4
Tflli
10.85
37.02
2570
4
VGuuavt
11.77
37.69
1884
3
Wnccta
11.92
37.68
1980
3
Zrgr
37.32
11.68
1789
4
’ h .4 SrDIn Water Resources' (2j
15
13 May-Il(z) sUNUttg Mie rjCMS H 9f)
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RjpMr ofHtfa'rfij, Mini/ty IF'^frf
Stif Imgrtion Dniift# Prytrt
T1abaulxe ,2-5:a.Piercentage of miasing momhh rainfall da<a_
Rain gauge
% of Mtasing data
from 1960
tram 1980'
Adder
60%
31%
Addis Zerncn
41%
38%
Amba Giorgis
52%
25%
Avkcl
48%
14%
Bahr L>ar
4%
2%
Chandiba
67%
44%
Chugni
49%
37*/.
Chcwihit
66%
42%
Dangila
34%
31%
Drk Estifanm
40%
16%
Del#
58%
40%
F.niibara
42%
23*o
Frifranzc
67%
55%
Gundar
7%
3%
Gorgora
39%
24%
IJamuSLt
55%
42%
Kl.dima.-j
54%
21%
Mikic^Tisl
21%
3%
Mandun
56%
55%
' Fa we
50%
28%
Sckch
70%
50%
Tbs Abhay
58*.
27%
TlIII
51%
19%
Wanz.sc
59*.
30%
Worrti
44*.
18*4
----------------------------
73%
40%
Nute: Value* m 1x44 have <30% mi*sinn 'btii
Rainfall gauges used to incerpoLair point rainfall data to areal rainfall for the Heirs catchment arc listed in Tabic 2-3. Data quality checks were performed on all run gauges and any outliers were identified and removed- ’l"hc selected rain gauges had the most complete record* of data, and were geographically dose to the project area, and all have good data quality. The monthly rainfall data (unfilled) are presented in the accompanying in Annex Al to Annex AS
2.6 Prelim in afyexpio rafory d*t» 
(EDA)
Data was received as soft copy and hard copy from rhe NMSA-1 lard copy data was manually entered into Excel spreadsheets. The selection of rainfall starions was made such that onlv rainfall stations with a good quality record were selected, whilst also ensuring an appropriate spatial distribution of data. Preliminary exploratory data analysis (EDA) focused on the monthly rainfall data for the Pawc, Mandura, and Dangila stations. Rainfall data is available throughout the Tana basin from which previous studies such as SMEC have already extracted the most reliable data, and have performed quality analysis of (his data. This data was reviewed and
LL F4 StOla Waler Knource* (2)
1
11-Mav 11Mm/ Dtmo-mtn- Rifmbtn •} Ethiopia. Minii/rf of W aler t> Enel# Ht/mf/MH A/Zr Irrigation and Drainafe Prned
checked for outliers and augmented where possible. Preliminary data analysis of the ram ?I most relevant for this study showed no unexpected values or suspect periods of record, n-j ^ was discarded
EDA also involved comparing the highest rainfall value for each station against data for neighbouring stations for the same month. When the highest rainfall values recorded at «ci> station axe compared against data for neighbouring stations for the same month these arc id agreement. Investigations of the outlying high monthly values were checked against hard copt and the summations of corresponding daily rainfall data to show any errors in the data entry Scatter plots of Pawe, Mandura, Chagni and Dangila data against their nearest neighbouring stations were used to identify outliers in the monthly rainfall records. A scatter plot for Paut rainfall data against its closest station Mandura, aldiough a short recorded, showed reasorublc agreement (R - 0.85). with only one outlier of note (Figure 2-8). Higher rainfall in August
z
1990 at Mandura was checked and there was no reason to remove it as high rainfall was also experienced at Chagni. Mandura station lies in the wetter region of the BeJrs catclimeni (Figure
2-13).
Figure 2-8: Scatter plot for Pawe monthly* rainfall data compared to Mandura data Pawe and Mandura rainfall
Mso Pawe data was compared with rainfall data from Chagni stations and again there was a reasonable agreement (R= = 0.80) but with one notable outlier which is considered suspect
d-igure 2-9) The value for Chagm in October 1998 is much higher than that of measured at Pawe but is similar but soil higher to the rainfall recorded for Kxiamaja gauge also on the escarpment some 20 km away- The value at Chagm is regarded as suspect but could not be checked against hardcopv so was not removed. Comparison of rainfall data between Chagni in(i its close neighbour hudamap station shows good agreement fR- = 0.84) with no notable anomalies tn the data (Figure 2-10). A scatter plot of Dangila data against neighbouring stations of Kidamaja show good agreement between monthly ramiaU datasets w,th R- value of 0.86 (Figure 2-11). Comparisons of data identified no outhers.
Ub b’4 SrOl> Wafer RcMnircrs (2)
ISFftfrW Dffr^rafr'i RsptM fff Mimrrr, tf If jf*r <*■ E*«p
Erftrtpfiw Xdr Imp/wr itod Drwff PmfAT
Figure 2-9: Scarier plot for Pawc monthly rain fill I data compared to Cha gm data Pm and CKaflnl rafrital
Figure 2-10: Scatter plot for ChAgni monthly rainfall data compared to Kidamaja data Chagitf and KWamoja rainfall
—
UhF+StfllaAVaicrRai Kifcet (2)
19
B May j 1Mmfn >/^rr
Etfwpiar. Sik I’W'M ^d r)ratn*' Pn^
2 7 Infilling ofrainfall data
Short data gaps arc present in the rain gauges chosen and arc infilled using linear regression using nearby rain gauges (ie. donor gauges) Monthly rainfall is plotted between the target ns gauge and potential donor rain gauge and a linear regression equation is established. FigurcM. shows an example of this plot for Pawe rain gauge and the donor rain gauge for Chagnt Run gauges are selected as donor rain gauges based on their geographic proximity to the target raw gauge and the strength of the R value.
:
Figure 2-12: Regression analyses for Pawe rain gauge using Chagni as a donor gauge
Pawe and Chagni re infill
r
gauges used to the infilling process Mostly, the donor gauge shown as n ’ ° ° gauge used to infill missing data of die target gauge, but if the primary missing data ar that lune step, then the secondary donor ram gaUgc Js
Table 2-6 shows the donor nun gauge selected to infill missing diia fOf cac|j
associated regression equation Table 2-6 also shows the priority o ranlo^ ®au8c and the
n r faXns
,tSc^ has
,n fin. and so on.
UbF4 SrOta Water Re«oufcc» (2)
20FhM Of^-rafTi
•/ .Wtw/r/ f'lTafr* r"~ Eanp
f ‘JbtaftaM Niit Imtftffn JM PrwXf
The infilling process works on a cascading of donor rain gauges until the missing data point ts filled Annex Bl has the observed monthly raintall data for the selected ram gauges and (lie monthly rainfall data after infilling
No in filling of the daily rainfall was performed Daily rainfall is used in the estimation of the PNfP. PMP estimation w based on a series of annual daily maxima values measure at a rain gauge and should therefore be based on ‘raw’ daily data with years with missing data in wrt months excluded. Infilling of any gaps in other climatic data was not attempted
Table 2-6: Rain gauge p—f riora-itry and regression equation used for infilling
Rain gauge
Missing
data
1980-2005
Rain gauge priority for infilling
R»g. eq.
(y = .lope x)
1
2
3
4
38%
1 )onor gauges
Sckela
Bahr Dar
.Adder
Slope
0.661
0. 49
w
-
R-
0.86
0.84
38%
Donor gauges
Debere Tabor
Bahr Dar
Addis Zemen
Slope
0.762
0.749
R-
0.82
0.75
25%
Donor gauge*
Gondar
Chewahit
Addis Zemen
\mlm Giorgis
Slope
0.748
0.877
0.628
R'
0.84
0.70
0.65
14%
Donor gauges
Gondar
Chandiba
Chewahit
Aykel
Slope
0.903
0.845
1.049
R-
0.86
0.88
0 81
2%
Donor gauges
Addis Zemen
Bahr Dar
Slope
1.109
R-
073
37%
Donor gauges
Kidamaia
Mandura
Enplnra
Dan gib
Chagni
Slope
0.749
0.875
0.733
0.978
R:
0.92
0.86
0.83
0.85
44%
Donor gauges
Aykel
Chewahit
Gondar
Chandiba
Slupe
1.042
1.080
0.869
R-
088
0.84
079
42%
Donor gauges
Gondar
Chewahit
Chewahit
Slope
0.773
0.779
R-
0.8?
0.84
31%
Donor gauges
Kidamai.i
Enpbara
Bahr Dar
Tilli
Dangja
Slope
0.703
0.683
0.893
0.770
R-
0.92
0.91
0.85
0.79
Dek Esttfanos
16%
Donor gauges
!2s£
Bahr Dar
Uh 1*4 ScOla Water Resource* 2)
21
B Mav 11FfM Defwafti' RfpMblii if Ethiopia. Minittry of II atrr c~ Ent/p
Ethiopian Kti* Irrigation and Draw Pnje.1
Missing
data
Rain gauge priority for
Reg. eq.
Rain gauge
1980-2005 >
(y = slope x
2
-J
| Slope
1.870 1.106
rR-
0.84
0.79
-
40% | Donor gauges
Chexvahit
Gorgura
Gondar
Delgi
| Slope
0.753
0.694 0.604
0.88
0.83
0.73
1 
23% | Donor gauges Kidamaia
R2
Sekela Adder
Enjtbara
1 Slope
0.974 1.160 1.690
R-
0.93
0.89
086
55% | Donor gauges Makscgnii | Addis Ze men
Gondar
Enfran/c
I Slope
0.763 0.823
0.879
R-
0.89 0.79
0.77
3% | Donor gauges
Dcbcrc Tabor
Chewy hit
Gundar
1 Slupe
0.689 1.130
1 
24% | Donor gauges
R2
0 84 0.79
Chewahi r
Bahr Dar
(iorgora
| Slope
0.970 1.189 0.632
1 R1 0.85
0.83
0.82
42% Donor gauges
\Xanzave
Bahr Dar VPor eta 
1 lamusir
SI- >pc
1.038
0.941 0.996
R-
0.93
0.85
o.-6 d
21% Donor gauges
Chagni
Mandura Enjibara
Kjdamap
Slope
1.232
1.106 0.974
R'
0 92
086 0.85
3% Donor gauges |
Gondar j Enfranze
Chewahi r |
.Maksegnit
Slope
0.912
1.167 1.167
Ra
0.90
0.89
0.77 J
55% Donor gauges |
Pawe Chagni
Emibaxa 1 Bai*
Mandura
Slope
1.0256 1 0.987
0.791 j fl<
R-
0.92
0.86
0.72 | 0*
28% | >onor gauges Meshenu
Mandura
Chagni I Bak!
Pawe
1
Mope
1.031 0.893
0.962 1 1J-
1 II-
0.87 | 0.92
50% 1 r >>nor gauges
Enpbara
Adder
__p.«0 | oj Ttllt I
Sekela
lope
1 **
1 R
0.772 |
0.89
1.300
0.86
0 894 1 1 P
Bahr l>ar
j
-0.87 | qg
27% 1 C >onor gauges
Tiss Abbay
1 Sl ope
1 R
1
0.754
0.83
• J -J
l b 1*4 ScOla Water Resource* (2;
:
22
13-Mav IIfrltra/
Mtnti^ tflFtrtfr & Etw&
c^aprJJT N#i -r<J Daju^-U‘1' frwrf
Rain gauge priority for infdim#
Rain gauge
Mining
data
1980-2005
Reg. eq.
(y = slope x)
1
2
3
4
18%
Donor Eaugei
Guman
1 lamusK
Winzayc
Bahr Dar
Worcfa
Slupe
0.902
0.854
0 896
0.875
R=
0.92
0.85
083
0.80
30%
Donor gauges
Gumars
Hamusit
BahrDar
Woreta
Wanzayc
Slope
0.919
0,89?
0.994
0.927
R-
0.90
0.93
0.88
0 83
40%
Donor ?a ugn
Bahr Dat
Dele Ei ri fa nos
-
-
Zrgr
1.0145
0 6412
-
R
0.865907
0.704332
-
2. £ AresJ rafoMt using co-kriging
Observed point monthly rainfall is available from 27 run gauges in and around the Tana-Beles caichmenL Spatially averaged rainfall nr areal rainfall is required for I he estimation of available watrr resources and for estimation of crop water rcquircmcnls for rhe Upper Beks Scheme- Spjttialh averaged or areal rainfall is generated th rough application of a 'geoslaiLMicar interpolation (re. spatial statistics). Co-kriging is used and takes into account any correlation among independent variable* used Ln rhe case of rainfall their is often, for a given area, a correlation between rainfall and elevation. although sometimes weak. ‘This can br complicated by the relative position in respect to the prev ailing winds at different times of I he year.
Are-GIS based co knging was employed to establish rainfall isohyet maps. Kngmg is a generalized least-square regression technique rhat allows one Io account for spaual dependence between observations. as revealed by the semi-varirigram. into spa dal prediction. Co-knging is an approach which incorporaics secondary information (c.g. elevation from a DEM), and is a multivariate extension of kriging (Goovacrls, 1997) Research by Goovacm (1999) has shown that for low resolution networks, geos tabs tic al interpolation outperforms techniques such as inverse square distance or Hue?sen polygon. Co kriging is 3 more sophisticated approach and consuls of assessing the correlation betw een elevation and rainfall within each neighbourhood. Co-kngmg interpolates the rainfall as a Unear combination of surrounding rainfall observations and co located elevation.
Arcal estimates of monthly rainfall were calculated uxing rhe observed data obtained from the NMSA- All rainfall gauges in I ana-Bdes catchment are usrd with the closest to the Upper Beks project area were earning more weight in the interpolation (Table 2-6). Selected rain gauges were tnfilled U5lng War regression from nearby raw gauges. The infilled LTA monrliiy rainfall from 1980 to 2005 for each station is presented in Annex BL The DEM acquired from SRTM (Shtinlc Radar Themauc Mission) with a resolution of 90 nhu used in the co-kriging. Monthly graded rainfall surfaces were created I tom monthly observed rainfall for the years 19 RO to 2005. Prtor to 1980 there is insufficient number of rain gauges wih observations to interpolate point rawlaU to areal rainfall with any confidence. After 19R0 there is a significant step in rhe number of rain gauges with available data (Figure 2-7), and data ts more complete from PRO
I’b F4 SrOU Water Rrumrccic (2)
21FedtivlDtmo^ti. 
»/EMtfua. Murt f' n ofUa/rre^E-eg)
pJbwpwn N/£ lmga/ion jnd Drarna^ PnjKt
onwards (Table 2-2). After 2005, the number of nun gauges with data again falls below considered acceptable.
The monthly gridded surfaces of rainfall for the Upper Bales project area were produced lt| resolution of 90 m- Co-kriging results were checked by comparing rhe predicted rainfall witk die observed rainfall at each rain gauge; the difference was less than 1%, giving confidence^
the co-kriging. Areal rainfall was extracted from each monthly gridded surface for each sub- catchment upstream of the Enat Bdcs gauge, diversion weir, and proposed storage dam site n
well as for the irrigation project area Figure 2-13 shows the annual average rainfall caJcuJatnl using co-knging techniques for the Lake T'ana-Bdcs basin Figure 2 14 shows the annual
average rainfall isohyet maps for the Upper Bcles project area. The long term average monthjj rainfall for the irrigation command area calculated using co-kriging techniques from 1980 (a
2006 arc presented in Annex B2 Monthly areal rainfall for the Upper Bcles dam site, divcrum weirs, and for the catchment to die confluence to the Gdgel Bcles is provided in Annex B3
7 able 2-7 gives the long term average rainfall (LT’A) estimated using co kriging for the imgaon command area, as well as the 80% dependable rainfall used to estimate die effective rainfall (Pert) required for the crop water requirement calculations The monthly value for the 80% probability rainfall is estimated from the standard normal cumulative distribution (Chow, 198? using the mean and standard deviation (SD) from the 27 years of monthly rainfall The effects rainfall used to determine irrigation rainfall requirements is then determined by the (JSDA sot conservation serv ice method (using CropWat version 8) using the dependable rainfall data. P, where Pert is given by the following:
P.ff • (P (125-O.6P)J/125 for P < 83 mm P rM = 41.7 + 0.1 P for P > 83 mm
i
I'b F-4 Sri) la Wafer Resources (2)
24FrJmi/
.Esfapu. Mwifr? »f lr**r r* £«wj>
i-i/Hpw Ntir IrrvgiDM Jirf Pqr«r.T
Figure 2-13: Annual rainfall from co-krigrng for Tsuia-Belea catchment
Ub F4 SrOla Waler Rctourcct (2)
25
ll-May U1
Ftdntt Dowalx R/paMt tfEtfafw, Mtttlfry of ITj/rr & Enrrg EMfCpftw Mi hn&fm ud l)rwntp I'roftrt
Figure 2-14: Annua! rainfall isohyet* from co-knging for the Upper Beles project area
aBd« TimtK
?r v^r ■ ■JvrWQ// PrWfnntt.'
fl/
.WurM* / Fjm r*“
EffapM* Nt'lr Inr^/M* Jffrf Hnttltitf Prwa
Table 2-7: !x>ng term average rainfall! dependable (80%), and effective rainfall for lipper Brle« command area
Moolh
Long term average
rainfall
(nun)
Standard
Deviation
(rum)
80% Dependable
rainfall
(mm)
Effective
rainfall
(mm)
knuirr
13
4-2
0
0
February
1.6
2.8
0
0
Mirth
11,6
19.4
0
0
April
273
40"
0
0
May
II 1.8
84.7
403
37.9
June
240-7
82-2
171.5
124.4
July
366.'
96.7
285.3
153.5
A'l£U3t
333,7
87.9
259.7
151
Sep I ember
216.5
70.7
157.(1
117,6
October
119.9
45.9
HU
70.7
November
114
14.0
0
0
[ Jrcemher
4.2
6-2
0
0
Annual
1447
556
995
655 |
L'b J-4 Srtll j Waler R^Iluav, f2)fnM
 Dt^rutic
ofEtbi^o. 
ofll 'arrr &
Efhtorwn A7Zr I mutton anti Droiiiatf Prvjtit
2 9 A vailabititv of climate data
Pawe climate station, located at the Agricultural Research Centre, is the closest primary ch^ station to the Upper Bdcs project area; this is a class 1 type station recording rainfall, temperature, sunshine, humidity, and wind speed The dimate stations of Chagni and Ding* arc also a class 1 type but are outside the Upper Beles catchment area The other nearby
is Mandura a class 4 type measunng only rainfall. Soft copy data for temperature and harden^ for other climate variables were supplied from the NMSA. Additional climate data in both see copy and hard copy were made available by the Agricultural Research Station at Paw, Dau from hard copy were manually entered into a database The monthly climate data for Pawc, Mandura, Chagni and Dangila stations arc provided in Annex Cl to Annex C4, respectively
llic availability of climate data for these climate stations is presented in fable 2-8. Like rainfit data, after 1980 there is a significant increase in the available dimate data tor rhe primary climate stations Climate data has been augmented up to the year 2008 at the pnncipal station i l’awc with a record from 1987 to 2008. A common period for the climate data from 1980 to
2008 is used. Annex C5 shows the number of months of available climate data within each vrr from the start of the records
Table 2-8: Available climate data from NMSA
Climate
station
Data availability*
Periods
available
Missing data years
j------------------- 1 % njnu
data fan record ol
Minimum temperature
1987-2008
32%
Maximum temperature
1987 2008
31-.I
Pawe
Relative humidity
1987-2005
1991 1996. 2006 2008
73M
Sunshine hours
1987-2008
32%]
Wind speed
1987-2005
2006 2008
—
37%
Minimum temperature
Maximum temperature
1973 2005
1993-199"’
41%.
1973 2005
1993-1997
36%
Chagni
Relative humidity
1974-2005
1985 1988.1991 2000
66%
Sunshine hours
1976 2004
1992 1997
, 43*<1
Wind speed
1973 2004
1992 1997
3Q* >'
Minimum temperature
1962 2005
1970 1973.1978 1986
Maximum temper.*turr
1962-2005
1966-1968,1970-1973 1978*
43*U
1
Dangila
Relative humidity
1988-2005
1
4^%
Sunshine hours
1088 2005
--------------------------------------
------------------------ i*>i I** ~ i—<
Wind speed
1991-2005
Minimum remprrarurc
1980-2006
1992 2001 "
Mandura
Maximum temperature
1980 2006
1992-2001 —
3 >2-*
51%^
—
51^
I'h 1-4 SrOla Water Resources (2)
28
1-3 May-11Futkrti
a/F.fhip4, Mitottf *f Udt/r t* Entr#
gffMpMM .V/i /mM/«iv mi DiWNfr P^r
210 Prelmintry EDA ofcJmtfe d*t*
The quality of climate daia from Pan e station was examined. Time scries plots were produced using a common data frame of 1980-2007 to assist tn cross station comparison including data from Mandunt, Chagni and Dangila Time senes plots of the climate parameters at each station were used io identify outliers in the record. ED.A ako involved comparing the highest value tor climate parameters at each station against data for neighbouring sration for the same month.
2.11 Temper* we d*r*
Figure 2-16 and Figure 2-17 shows the vanahon of the monthly maximum temperature in the stations considered, between years 1980 - 200H. M and ura shows maximum temperature^ rather lower tn Ptwe. while Chagm and Dangila exhibit lower temperatures, reasonable it it is consider the altitude of the climatic stahons.
Figufe 2-16: Monthly maxi mum temperature (1980-1993)
mCHMhh'
Ub J-4 ScQlfl Water ftcsowcei (2)
B May-HFtderul Def^rutii RepMi of Ethiopia, Mnurffy of W afer C** Eotigy Ethiopia* Nik Imqitio* and Drat naff Pnyesf
Figure 2-17: Monthly maxim uni temperature (1994-2008)
monthly max fampamtura
Figure 2-IB presents the long term average maximum temperature at Pawe and Chagm climre stations 'rhe pal tern of the maximum temperature tn both stations is similar but with a difference of about 4 °C because of their relative altitude. The maximum temperature occur id April towards die end of the dry season with a minimum temperature during persistently ebu? months of July and August.
Figure 2-19 shows the correlation of rhe long term average maximum temperature between Pawe and Chagni climate stations, whilst Figure 2-20 shows the correlation between Pawe aiul Mandura station. The data qualify for temperature is considered good when Pawe data is compared with data from the Chagm and Mandur a climate stations
Ub 1-4 SrOla Waler Rcsourrc* f2)
30
TS-Mjv-51FwW Dr-winrf / FLpMd--#liJhwpM. Minify tflftitr <** f-^wp
p.ftovfrw Nik Im&ftM J*./ DwMgt Pnptf
Figure 2-18 Long (erm average maximum lempcraturc al Pawe and Chagni stations (unfilled data)
L«mo wrn iTffraflH* mfflflUhljr rnwc ■ Mrlw wajwuf InfWirtfl
The observed record of maximum tempera rure at Pawe has about 32% of data missing from 1980 to 2008. In order to infill this missing data the correlation between Pawe station and Chagni is used as this presents the highest coefficient of correlation (r-=0.98). Missing data is infilled at Pawe using the following relationship:
T„. = 1.1R (T_^- 0.84
The infilled monthly maximum temperature data obtained for Pawe dimare station is provided in Annex C6. However, in months when there is neither data for Pawe or (hagni then missing data is substituted using die monthly long term average maximum temperature value Despite infilling rhe missing data the monrhly long term average maximum temperature remain similar to those estimated without infilling die missing data Figure 2-21
Ub F4 Sri)In U'irt EUnuirtea (2)
31
13 May-] tFf&tv/ Dfawurn RtpMc of Ethiopia. Mmufr, oflVjtr&EwrQ fMopwn Xtlt I motion and Drainage Pry erf
Figure 2-19: Correlation between maximum temperature data recorded at PaWc Chagni stations
Monthly mean Temp, correlation
Figure 2-20: Correlation between maximum temperature data recorded at Pane and Mandura stations
Mean Temp, correlation
Ub J-4 SrO1a Water Resources (2)
32
IJAhv :?
FTV ? JxBvrtn p/ ITarfw' Mung-
hffv^r jVfJlr /mptfair Jtrf Dro?fl<* PryM
Figure 2-21: lx»ng term average maximum temperature at Piwe climate^tarion (infilled)
Lc*HJ lanm iv»f>g»* monthly mnkltufl TwripSfltur"
FMd m«| M««lon 09M - 2W>
The monthly minimum temperatures measured at Pawc steaoti as well as its neigh bo unng elation ar Mandura. and nearby stations of Chagni and Dangila on the escarpment are presented in Figure 2-22 and Figure 2-23 for the period 1980 to 2008
In the period 1980 to 1991 date for Manduxa climate station show thal lhe monthly numtnum temperatures arc higher than those recorded at Pawr climate station but from 2002 — 2005 minimum temperatures ire lower than those recorded at Pawr Considering the altitude of each station, the firsi period appear to be inconsistent in Mandura. Overall, the seasonal variation between Pawe, Chagni and Dangila is similar but as expected date for Chagni and Dangila exhibit lower icmperatures because of there higher altitude
L'b J -l SrOla Vj/um Resource? 2: 13
13-Mav.11Wafer c Efteigi
u
T-tdrrd Drmoautii Rffiubbt of Et'biopia. iXhitirtn of Ethiopia* \ik Irrigation and Drainage Projtit
Figure 2-22: Monthly minimum temperatures (1980 — 1993)
monthly mln t«mp«r*fure
Fig«re ^Monthly 
tempcrwe. (1W4 - a»S>_
monthly mln t»mp«r»tuf»
The long term average nununum temperatures at Pawe and Chapu climate station. „e shoWO 2 'M The seasonal pattern tn the minimum temperatures for both stations is similar,
LT™™-
M.v .nd ... I— -nd.. d~ .lie... ■X-dm .nd
“n^bdon .ndv» b«w~» -->* *» 
nod™ to. mtoimnn. 
cZ^.
h *rI ” 
' r””'"
Hp,„ 2-2S ,how, ,hc
" h“ “"P^d
—>
'h'
d.„ f„m ,|„
» <■» SMBC (200,) tnrf).
34
l b IM SfOla Witrr Rrwurco (2)
13 May-11Ffrfrni/ Pn-siwfr?
fffErfvepia, Atiwtrr tf JPW ci* t
ErfaT'M M I™!#** *"* V'*™#
Figure 2-24: Long term average minimum temperature at Pawt and Chagni station (unfilled data) __________________________________ ____ — ---------------
Lan? rtrm «¥»r«g« monthly mlnimun T»rnp*rilnjr« - ■**»» without inRlUng
Figure 2-25: Correlation between minimum temperature data recorded at Pawt de Chagni stations
Figure 2-25 shows there is a high correlation between monthly data recorded at Pawe and Chagiu stations (i.c. r--O.W| Since there is a good correlation between these stations die following rciatvinship is used to infill nusstng data in the times senes of minimum tempcraiure WE Pawe;
T_,.„,-O-H7( _„,^J + 5.52
r
t 'b F4 Sri) I a Warn Rnnurcei |2)
35
llAfay ItFtfM Demaufh 
9f Ethiopia. Mtnutn-
Ethiopian A7ir Irrigation anti Draiitap Ptojfrf
l*hc infilled minimum temperature series estimated for rhe Pawc climate station are prc5c in Annex C6 figure 2-26 again shows that difference between monthly long term aver minimum temperature before and after infilling is small
Table 2-9: Long (erm average tempera Hire forUpper Belcs command area
Month
Min Temp (C°)
Max Tcmp(C°) Mean Temp(C°)
January
12.4
345
23 4
Februan
14.3
36.2
253
March
17.6
37.4
27.5
April
19.0
373
28.2
May
19.3
34.5
269
|une
18.1
29.8
23.9
July
17.8
27.7
22.8
AugU3t
17.6
27.7
22.7
September
17.3
29.0
23.2
October
16.9
30.4
23.7
November
14.4
32.3
233
December
123
33.6
23.0
Mean
16.4
32.5
24.5
l ’b F4 SrOla Water Krwurccs (2)
36frM DffifOWft-'
Xfwirry o/JTjfn- £* E«rp
Nf# fm^N* W D^nr-f^i' Prwf.-.’
212 JM* &*? humidity
J “he re arc considerable data gaps in the records of relative humidity measured at Pa we station with 73% of missing data for the period i960 to 2008. Data gaps arc- also apparent in the records for Chagni and Dangila slations with 66% and 42® « data missing, respectively. Coincident measurements of relative humidity have been made at lhc<e stations from 2<MJ 1 ro 2005. Generally, inter annual variability of relative humidity is low compared to rainfall therefore a short record is less of a concern.
Figure 2-2“ shows die variation in relative humidity recorded ar the climatic stations of Pawe, Dangila and Chagni for rhis period. ‘Ilie seasonal partem of relative humidity shows higher humidity during the wet season months from May to September and low humidity during the dn from November to March. Relative humidity is higher al Pawc station compared to measurements at the climate station* of Chagni and Dangiia sited on the escarpment. Visual inspection of the time senes allowed some transcriptions errors to be correction for the year
2005
Figure 2-27: Relative humidity measurement* (2000 - 2005)
l -h TM SrtJJa Wairr Rncjuitn (2)
37
13 .Muy-IIM
EtMfxan Sih I'TV’^n a»d D™* W
" hHfT
P
vZ!Lection of the ante series for sunshine hours tdenafied an outlier of 12.5
2005 This value was corrected from the daily data recoded tn hard copy. Other outlier, noted that warranted further inspection. Most corresponded to transcriptions errors and^ corrected.
Figure 2-28: Sunshine hour measurements (1987 - 1997)
monthly SunaHnw
Figtire 2-29: Sunshine hour measurement!! (1998 — 2008)
1 w<> sources of sunshine hour data for Pawe station have be
from the NMSA, and secondary the data directly from the ^^‘ned; firstly from die
^cultural Research Station
IM SrOla Water Resource* (2)
58
1 jv • IMrd iWto
tfErtept, Miiutfry- of R afrr d- Eirt^
AWi- /jTtjJ’/flW Jtr/ P/UVJT^ Prwrf
(PARS). Both data sets should be die same bur when compared there are dilirrenccs. Figure 2-28 and Figure 2-29 show rhe monthly vacation of sunshine in Pawr (NMSA, Pawe (PARS), also well as measurements fro Dangtk and C'hagni stitions for coincident period from 1 >8 •’ to
e
2008,I lowcvcr. a comparison rd the long term average sunshine hours from both sources shows ihat values are similar as tabulated below in ‘fable 2-10; a difference of less than 1° o.
I zing term average values fur sunshine hours ire used to estimate the radiation component in the estimation of the reference evapotranspiration (ET,>) in the project area. Overall, the sunshine data obtained directly from PARS air more complete and arc considered more reliable as these data arc directly from the office responsible for die Pa we climate station and it is these daia that arc used in the Upper Belts study.
Table 2-10: Long term average sunshine hours estimated from NMSA and PARS data
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Aug
Set
Oct
Nov
Dec
NMSA
9,6
9.5
8-8
9.3
8.7
6.4
4.9
4.7
5.9
7.4
9.6
9.9
PARS
9.6
L 93
8.7
8.8
8.0
63
4.6
48
61
7.3
9.4
98
2.14 Wind jpeerf
Wind speed measured at Pawr station shows a gradual decrease in wind speed through time which is also observed m the records at Dangtla and Chagni stations bui the decrease is less dramatic in the latter datasets (Figure 2 30). Observed wind speed a< Pawe stabilises for the period 1998 to 2001 but then again the data shows a year on year decline from years 2002 to 3007 whilst wind speed data measured al the other two stations arc stable during this period showing no declinr Ihc cause of gradual decline in wind speeds is most likely due to either a local effect (i.c. more sheltering from growl h of surrounding trees/vegetation) or a decline in the performance of the instrument through time. Overall, the annual mean wind speed at Pa we starion is 0.73 ms \ and 1.1 ms 1 at Chagni and Dangila.
Wind speed data from the Pawt station are used to estimate the long term average wind speed for the Upper Belcs command area as Chagni and Dangih despite have more reliable datasets arc loo far from project area. Uncertainty in Pawe wind speed data is reduced by selecting n more reliable period in the record from the years 1994 to 2001. Despite being a short record this time scries is stable showing little downward trend tn data
■■ h l'<i SrOla, \X jiti Resource?' (2)
39
■ 3 May-IlFnkTui
Rftbi. oj
* li^'
Etfafnan .V/Zr Imfiitio* aad Dnawgr Pntet
Figure 2-30 Wind speed measurements (1987 -2005)
rrxxMNy wind speed
215 Long term avenge climate data
Monthly and long term average estimates of temperature were calculated using the measured data obtained for Pawe climate station Climatic data such as humidity, wind speed, and sunshine hours were also provided by NMSA for Pawe or obtained directly from the climatic station located at the Agricultural Research Station. Long term average monthly values for tins climate data are given in Table 2-11 Seasonal variations in climate data arc presented in Figure
2-31.
lxjng term average minimum and maximum temperatures for the I pper Boles command area arc highest from March through to April, with lows in July when clouds persists through die wet season. A maximum monthly temperature of 37.-1 °C occurs toward the end of the drv season in April with a low of 27.7°C in July and August at the height of the wet season Monthly average minimum temperatures vary from 12-3°C in December to 19.3°C in May.
'l*hc humidity is highest in August when humidity reaches 00° o in the wet season, and a minimum of 59% occurs in March in the dry season under clear sky conditions. Wind speed vanes from 30-82 km/day and averages 56 km/day. Sunshine hours van* from 4 6 hours in |uh‘ to 0.8 hours in December.
!
Ub b’4 SrOla Water Resource* (2)
40KaW Dftwrt. RjpM'c ofEfhtafna. MttUifry »J W~fffr r** H#«jr I'thrfwt Imptm* wt / >jr^r JWr
Table 2-1L Climaric data and ET, for Upper Beles command area
Month Min. Max, Average 1 f umidjiy
Wind
Sunshine
ET.
January
12.4
345
234
653
4L1
9.6
3.95
February
143
362
253
63.6
553
93
4.51
Mflixh
17.6
37.4
273
59.1
75.6
8.7
5.09
April
19J)
373
28.2
62.9
743
8 8
532
May
193
34.5
26.9
65.4
82.1
8.0
4.97
June
18.1
298
23-9
81.0
81.0
63
3.97
July
1TB
27.7
228
86.0
605
46
331
August
176
27.7
22.7
89.6
57.2
4.8
333
September
173
29.0 i
23.2
85.8
49.7
6.t
367
< JtKibrr
16.9
30.4
23.7
85.0
33 5
73
3.79
November
14.4
323
233
77.2
30.2
9.4
3 93
December
123
33 6
23 0
69.0
35.4
9.8
3,81 ,
Mean
16 4
323
245
74.2
56-3
7.7
4.14
Now An judhwh* <»f 1119 m;i*l is ujird mJ a. laQtvrJr«4 11.31 "’N an.4 kwijpiiiiJc ot 36 4 2 * li
,
216
Jfrjferencr EvipomuMpinitian (ET*)
1 he long term average dinure daia is used to estimate the reference evaporation FT(1 for die command area for estimating crop water requirements The ET is calculated using the
D
Penman Monteith formula, as recommended by FAO (1908) using the CropWat (version 8) software. The FX ranges from 3.29 mm/day in July to 5.30 mm/day in April with an average annual value of 4.1 mm/day. The seasonal variation of IX, is shown tn Figure 2-32 The total annual EL is 1.492 mm for the L'ppcr Bcles project area (Table 2 12).
^F4Srt)h Water R
csuiirccs (2)
41Fftkra! Dtnomifii of'F.rhtatva. Miraftn ofir'a/rrt’-Enftg, Et.fa&an i\'/ir Irrigation and Drat nap Prv/r.t
Average monthly rainfall exceeds reference evapotranspiration in the wet season from June to September as shown below (Table 2-12). indicating that in the wet season the flat plain areas r the project area will need (surface) drainage to avoid flooding and crop damage. .Average monthly reference evapotranspiranon exceeds ramfall during the drv season until the start of die summer rains in June. Irrigation is required in the dry season to provide water for a second annual crop.
Table 2-12: Evapotranspiration and rainfall for command area
Month
!>ong term
average rainfall
ETO
ET.
LTA Rainfall
Eto
-■ _ _ __ —
Remarks
—
(nun)
(mm/day)
(mm/month
(mm/month)
anuary
1.5
3.95
- -------------------------- _
122 5
•120.9
February
1.6
451
1263
124.7
March
11.6
509
157.8
•1462
Di? >cison: irnganm
\pnl
27.5
5.32
1596
1321
reqiured for croppmg
May
111.8
4.97
154.1
-423
lune
240.7
3.97
119.1
121.6
|uh
366.7
331
1026
264.1
A cl
August
333.7
333
1032
 xason.
230.5
September
2165
367
110.1
1064
( ktobcr
119.9
3.79
1173
2.4
“Pplemrntary irnganon /
lr na e u
** * required
November
11.4
3.73
111 9
100.5 r
December
4.2
3.81
118.1
•IB.9
SCai n lfn
° gation
.Annual
1,447
4.14
1.492
Wed
l'b 1*4 SrOli U'atcr Resources (2)
42
13 May. I)Ffitov/
FUpvM.-
Afrvtfn* tfW'tift) & bwrp
J Jt^ur Ntfr Jrn^tL'Qft tfjrf Pwwjjr Prw^f
2J7 Flow data
The Enat Beks river is gauged al a road badge on the main mad between Gilgcl Beks roughly 4 km from rhe (own of Gilgcl Beks (Figure 2-14). The contributing catchment area to this gauge is 3,431 km- approximately 29% of the total caichmcnt area- The co ordinates of the Fnat Beks river gauge station (Na 6003} arc provided Tabic 2-13. The gauge station (stage board; is located a few metres upsircam of rhe road hridgr and bw no low flow control. Figure 2-33 The river it this point is wide with a straight reach and is considered reasonably stable. Figure 2-34. The river channel at the gauge site makes for i stable rating curve however there arc fra- spot discharge measurements available and high flows arc estimated by extrapolation of the rating curve
Figure 2-14 also shows the location of rhe gauge slatmn for rhe Gdgcl Belts river near to the town of Gilgel Beks; a tributary of Lhe Fuat nver intersecting just south of the project area. Discharge measurements are made from rhe bridge as there is no cableway Level measurements in the past have been made using 5 staff gauge* on the river bank but more recently according ro SN(FC (2009) a data logger has been installed at the gaugr sire as shown in Figure 2-35. The river teach is straight and the cross section upstream of thr bridge is considered stable. I lowmr, the ris er does suffer high sediment loads (Figure 2-36).
Table 2-13: Location of river gauges on Main (Enai) Belcs and Giigcl (Abac) Belen
(SMEC 2008)
Location
Stan Date
Equipment installed 1
St J bon
Code
River
Ac (km 2)
MoWE
Lar
(def)
Long
(deg)
Staff
AWLR
HOC
6005
Maui nr Enat Heles
11.20
36.32
Mar 1983
5,431
Yet
s WT.R trim iu Automatic. VI arer Lcvd Rrrotdcr rund HOC Hink Operated C
60(M
twn n i -
C rilgel Bries
11.16
J
36.34
Feb 1980
1
67$
v«
-
1
- —I
b F4 SrO] Waur
4
(?)
43
13 Mil-ItFtdrrul Dff^rafte tyM y&fafw, MMty o/lFafrr d* EKf# Ethtopidn lrnrjJtwn and Dmifl^gr Pw<1
Ub 1-4 SrOla Waler Rcsnurcc* (2)
44Dwwf/f iUpifb/h />' Eiht'tftii. .\f nut fry rfN'sfrr <g- Etf^p ErhnpM* NrJr ifrrf Dnmg Prwr.r
Figure 2-J5: Dala logger for Gilgel Belen gauge
Overall, rhe data quality for the Muri Emit Belts Mid Gilgel Belcs Mations is considered medium and good. respectively (Table 2-14). Precise discharge measurements of in these rivers like others in the Tana Belts catchment ire problematic and have few current metered measurements during peak flood flows. As a result rating curves arc extrapolated introducing uncertainty m estimates of higher flows. But, for the Main Belts the percentage at daily water level data, exceeding die highest observed level and discharge during current metering is only 0.4 % (SMEC 2008). However, this percentage may be higher, because the highest daily peaks may have been missed during die twice daily level observations.
Uh !’4 SfOU \X jtw IUmriko (2)
45
13 May-IIM
<*** W <irW C"
Bltifim Kit irnffthon W Dr^aft
Table 2-14: Flow data quality (BCEOM 1999)
River
Station
Data availability
medium
Station quality
unknown
poor
medium
6003 Main
At road
Beles
Gilgel
Beles
bridge
At road
bridge
A fall description of the Gilgel Beles gauge station is provided in Table 2-15. Water recordings are taken manually twice daily but more recently according to the SMEC itq (2008) a data logger has been installed The BCEOM (1999) gives no desenpnon for tlx r- gauge on tlw Main Beles Twice daily level observation can also be a problem as these men ta experience flash flooding, where the rise and fall in river stage is within 10 to 12 hours. \X:C the rising and falling limbs of the hvdrographs are very swill, the twice daily readings ask insufficient to estimate daily discharges.
There is a need for the MoW to rationalise and optimise the existing hydrometric network c relation to cost and benefits (SMEC 2008) llic SMEC study (2008) identifies the gauges on
Main Beles and Gilgel Beles river as primary monitoring stations. Primary stations should lr gauged continuously and indefinitely as these provide basic data for statistical analysis, troi analysis for water resource purposes. For (he Beles catchment SMEC (2008) also proposed, additional new gauge stations to be installed in the Upper Beles. 7*he first near the outlet ofthr tailrace of the Tana-Belcs Hydropower plant on the fuhana river a tributary of the Mam Ikse. and the second downstream of the project area in the Lower Beles at the location ot & potential Dangur reservoir.
Gauge
station
Description of gauge site
Recommended meMUfti
Gilgel
Beles @ Mandura
** .-There are S staff gauge sections in good condition'... “The section is reasonably stable
with a straight reach. High flow measurement is done from the badge and low flow’ by
wading”...
Rehabilitation is nor necessary-
(SMEC 2008 noted that rhe data logger hi been in* l ailed)
1
2.18 AvtUtbitit)’ of flow data
Figure 2 3 presents the availability of flow and level data for all gauge stations located in the catchment and near it. I able 2-16 presents the flow-gauging stations available for tfic study as supplied by the MoWE. The period of available flow data for the Main Beles from 1962 to 2005 a long record of 44 years; however the record is not conn.... ' " complete record years with 27% of the monthly flow data missing. Thc flow the gauge for Gilgel Beles river is shorter, a period from 1982 to 2005. dunn T ■ aV’*li,blc
0
11 years of complete records with only 1 5% of missing data. Monthly f]ow. * lch tbcrr “rC
Main Beles at Badge and on Gilgel Beles at Mandura are presented in Ann ' D2, and daily data tn Annex D3 and Annex D4, respectively.
R ’URCS °n
1)1 ant) Annex
Lb J‘4 SrOlu Water Resources (2)
46fVww.-Mta- IV?W Hrtw^U' Irripfo* Dwjp JWr
of ff 'tfrr & li^p
Tabic 2-16: Flow data availability in Belen catchment
---------
ID
Station
Arc*
(Km')
Original Period
Complete
ycam
Mean Annual
flow (m */s)
% mis ling
monthly
data
6003
Mair*
BeleK al
bridge
3.431
1962-20)5
IA
52
27%
64)04
Gilgel Helts near
Mandum I
675
1982-2005
11
16
13%
Figure 2*37: Availability of flow and level data
Figure 2-38 shews the relation between the observed monthh mean flows and mean annual flow, where an important seasonal variation can be observed, with higher values during the July Io October pentyl and lower ones from December to May. Des pile at! stations having a different period of observed measurements cadi shows a similar seasonality in flow.
Lh i'4 SrCli Water ll tm Hirers ;2‘<
47
I J-Mu I ]-
Frdta// Drwo.n/Z»j
ofFMofNa. Miwitrt of Wafer c- H/zrn»i
Ethiopian Nile Irrigation and Drmnafe project
Figure 2-38: Mean monthly observed flows related to mean annual flow
Monthly variation* of floww
J
Figure 2 39 and Figure 2-40 demonstrates the monthly flows available in Main Bcles at its gauge and die Gilgel Bcles gauge-stations. respectively. This shows a large difference with regard to the absolute magnitude of flows, but a similar annual partem exists
llic Main Belos has an upstream catchment axe of 3,431 km- and a mean flow of 52 m /s for the period 1962 to 2005; and for the coincident period with lhe Gdgcl Belts from 1982 to 2005 the mean flow is 55 m’/s The smaller catchment of the Gilgel Bcles gauged near Mandura lias a contnbuung area of 675 km2 and a mean flow of 16 m'/s.
The specific discharge estimate for How records between 1962 and 2005 is 15 2 1/s/km- and for records between 1982 and 2005 is 16 0 1/s km at the Main Bcles gauge stauon. The specific
:
discharge is 23.7 l/s/km’ at the Gilgel Belcs gauge.
4H
l b 1-4 SrOla
Water Hex Hirer < (2)
^Mav-i if'tbhftfi* A’# /"’?•'"<’* MiOw^ Pmf
Figure 2-39: Monthly Hows in Main Beles and Gilgel Bclcs gauges (1985 - 1990) tMMyMw
45C
Figure 2*40: Monthly flows in Main Beks and Gilgel Beks gauges (1990 - 2005)
H SfOln \T.......... ......
49
!1 Mjv-111‘tarry- DeMOirufir R/pabfa of Ethiopia. Mrwty aflTa/rr Ethfoftiaf! Xile 1 motion and Drain J# ProfCtl
I: *rfg
Figure 2-41: Month!) flows at Main Bcles and Gilgel Beles river gauges (\%2
Monthly flow
Hgurc 2-41 presents the observed monthly flow data recorded both at the Mam Beles at ft* and Gilgel Beles gauges l igure 2-42 shows the correlation between monthlv Hows recorded, the Mam Beles and Gilgel Beles gauge stations for d.e comadent penod 19«2 - 2005. 1* relation,lup between monthly flows can be used to infill missing data in die Mam Beles recoti Infilling of data is explored later m Chapter 0 and presented m Annex D5
Figure 2-42: Correlation betweco monthly flows ar K4-; n .
I - - ------ -------------- ------------------ -------- nows at Mam Befe. and
Gilgel Beles gauges-
^•«r**a4on Analyte
120
SO
Ul> 1*4 >rOH Wafer Resource* i?
13-Mnir flR&Me
FJtefw Ntif
Shaurn iffFjftr <rP Ewiji
Dmqr Pr^nf
Analysis of the flow records for the Main Bries and Gdgel Bclcs riven has been made to check the suitability of flow data. For comparison, a double mass plot of flows between the Main Bdes and Gilgd Heirs gauge stations for monthly flow is shown on Figure 2-43.
Figure 2-43: Double mans plot of monthly flow at Main Beks and Gilgcl Bries gauges (1982-2005)
Dmbfa rrijfii injfywl*
4
20QO
«UOO
*»& 1000
Q Kt" ■« B*M fartd»»4*Uril
IOOOQ
1ZCW
The long term average (LT A) monthly flows arc given in Tablr 2-17 for the Mun Beks river gauge for the period 1982 io 2005 for the data supplied. LTA monthly flowy for the Main Belt*; river is also plotted on Figure 2-44 showing the seasonal vartadon. with higher values during the July to October period and lower ones from December to May. Overall, the mean annual flow for the Mun Beles river at the gauge Manon is 56 m Vs (ie. data gaps tilled). The mean annual specific discharge for the Main Beks catchment at the gauge station is 16.4 1/s/ltm which is consistent for a catchment of this size in the Tana Bries basin.
2
( 5 H SrtJU Water Resources (2)
51
13 Mw41Vtdrruf Dtmtcriiric PjpnbUi 9f Ethiopia. .Mini f fry of Water & Entry Ethiopian Nik Inr^atiofi and Drainage Prvrerf
Table 2-17: I JTA month
v flow Statistic for Mai
in Belts gauge (1982-2005)
Month
Mean flow
5
(m /»)
Max. flow
(nP/i)
Min. flow
3
(m /t)
Ian uan'
4.4
10.8
0.3
February
2.8
7.8
0.1
March
2.0
6.1
0
Apnl
1.4
4.6
0
May
3.8
15.0
0
June
25.1
57.7
2.5
July
134 5
344.1
43.1
August
235.7
394.1
64.7
September
164.7
349.6
75.6
(October
74.9
156.9
21.2
November
18.2
53.7
1.5
December
6.9
17.0
0.7
Figure 2-44: Mean, maximum, and minimum flow Main Belen gauge
Monthly flow* Mam Bel« at fcndQ©
Lib 1.4 SrOla Wafer Resource* (2)
52
11 llpfritrii/
fr/.V/sr..’^ «/U '.Mr e*” JTwpi1
N«fr
Pnytrf
219 Hirer Jerri Ate
Figure 2-3 presents the availability of level data MoWE. A long record uf levels is available* it the Main Belcs gauge (6003) compared to rhe level record it rhe Gilgrl Bdes (6004) gauge. However, there ire notable data gaps in flow records when lev el data exists if tabulated below in Table 2-IM.
Table 2-18: Date gaps in flow records
River gauge
Period of level date with oo flow c trim ate
Main Bdcs ar Bodge
lin 19-1 - April 1971. lun 19 l - Jul 1971. Apr 1972-JuI 1972, Dee 1972
Gilgel Belen near Mandura
Dec 1992. Jul 1996. Au*> 1977, Jul I98fi -Oct 1998, Aug 1999-Ocr 1W
Monthly levels observed at Mam Bries and Gilgel Boles gauge stations arc presented on Figure 2-45. After 1982 there u an upward shift in the observed levels recorded at the Main Bd.es gauge compared to measured levels previously in the period 1962 io 1979. The likely cause for this shift in the observed level data is a rc-posioomng of the staff giuge resulting in a datum shift in the data series.
Figure 2-45: Monthly flow leveiaat Main Beks at bridge and Gilgel Be les nr, Mandura llamtNy Irala
JerrJ din
Records levels of Lake Tana arc important for the operation of the Tana-Bdes J lydropower scheme as these arc die basis for the operatxniaJ rules onllincd by Salim and Pirtrangdi (2006} uid adapted by SMEC (200ft) and reassessed by this Study Water released from the trail nee of hydropower plant will be used for irrigation in the Upper Beles project area, as well as for Lower Beles arid Hynan areas. I-ike levels fluctuate though our the year and from year to year as shown in Figure 2-46. More detailed analysis of Jake level data ri presented in Chapter 5.
Ct> H.SrdhU M Itl He «4IL11CCS l‘2-'
53
l-W’I-tdrnrt
Mnutn of W j' iff & Efrrrg
Fj/wCmum N/4 Imjarrox aati Dnunqp Pwl
Since late 1992 satellite altimetry data is available recording the water level of Lake 1 ana even 10 days (Figure 2-47). Estimates of lake level from the satellite altimeter closely follow the leva measured by lake recorders The satellite recorded the second lowest lake level since records began of 1,784.9 masl on 27 June 2009, because this year experienced a lower than average rainfall in the Lake Tana region The lake level on 21 April 2010 has liecn recorded as 1,785.01 masl prior to commissioning of the Tana-Belcs hydropower scheme on 14* May 2010. The most recent observation of 1.784 ? I masl on the 8 June 2010 is below the recommended minimum operational level for 1 Jikc Tana
Figure 2-47: Lake Tana lake level* recorded from satellite altimetry1
rrOPEX/POSI-irX^N md Ijmmi 1 Xlnmcrrv (USDA Agricuhunl Scrvxc)
54
Ub H Si01a Water K cm nitres (2)
u Mar-11fflW 
xw* X* ,m*‘n‘"' '“'
Eterg,
3 flow estimation at dam site and at diversion weir
j f 27/Frrtf/tM* rw and dam /oration
The project concept is to divert water to the right bank command from a diversion weir on rhe Beks rivet where the nvrr bed level is about +1.230 m. and to the left bank command from either a diversion weir/ or directly from a storage dam further upstream where the river bed level is about 100m higher at about + 1.330 m. The drvenied water largelv comprises releases from rhe I ana Bcks hydropower station (and from storage) in order to meet irrigation demands ovrr the command the area The location of the diversion weir and possible storage dam arc given in Table 3-1
Table 3*1: Coordinates of Drvcraion Weir (DE) and Dam Site (DS)
Site
Grid reference
Remarks
River bed
elevation
(“)
Available grow
storage (Mm )
1
DS * or DW kft)
261200E
1993750 N
Dam and / or weir at lhe same location
U3Q
3"8
DW ! right)
247850E
1285950N | Weir only
1230
-
The project area is very large, about 137.626 ha. and up io 74,784 ha (54%) is suitable for surface imgarwm. To facilitate staged implementation it has been divided into stage development areas. Stages IA, 1B-E. IB-W, and IB-S through ro Stage III form rhe right bank command area and waler is diverted by the right bank diversion weir (Figure 3-1). Stage II is for Hyma for I Jpprr Dindrr) which is outside of the project area bur would be supplied by
divers ions from this weir.
Stage IVA. TVB, I VC, and Stage V make up the kft bank irrigation development receiving water from the left bank diversion weir immediately' downstream of a proposed dam, or directly from rhe storage dim via a draw-off tower or a diversion weir at the same location.
Release from the Tatu-Bclcs hydropower station b expected to supply enough water io support irrigation development ovrr the right bank (Stages IA through (O IB’S, & HI) without rhe need for addition storage on lhe Knar Beks. However, with the expansion of irrigation development 1,1 Hyma during Stage II and onto the left bank then some storage may be needed on (hr Enat Belts m tf I’hc regime for releases from the Tana-Bdes hydropower scheme (lc. operational Aiks) adopted will ultimately determine the area of development that can be rmgared without skiragc and then the area for which storage is required. Storage requirements for the Upper Beks i'& Hymi) project area for diffe rm r operational rules adopied for the hydropower station h assessed in Chapter 5.
There arc no measured flows of the Upper Beks river near the proposed dam or diversion weir sites. For the present study, monthly flows are estimated at each site based on flow data ar rhe Main Belts gauge (St 6003) as well as a regional approach which accounts for rainfall variability Hn d catchment areaFrMDe/wufTf
tfEfafia, Mituty cfWjtrr &E"ip
FjfaofMJH AM Irrr^aOcf! J kJ Drjtffj^f Pratt
DBflOrMFW AHUS WTTM UO U on S
Halcrowfitted fte****^
d &Ar#ur Mtaufiy pflFaffr e*
A’/* Imprtw Orvin^t Pn* -r
t
J.2 Flow estimation for diversion weir and dam site
-n,e Orf.™- „r
„ TlWl,., ftom (o
p^cd 
., d™ „d fcS b,„k
(fi) bank
<>
15 well as rhe downstream diversion werrtFonorwrehr^r.tror^kth, ke n. ghr bank command arc shown in Figure 3-2.
T7d » 1 ”"’”f,h'~ad„.„„o L
Table 3d; Catchment area* p
io dam niie and diversion weirs
Dam and diversion weir
1
Caleb meat area fkm )
Dam sue & diversion weir offtake left
590
Diversion wrir (right)
865
Main Bek. arh ridge
3.431
Figure 3-i lx>cationa and
catchmenifi to dam and diversion weir
#.-
llic mean areal precipitations interpolated from point measurements, using co-knging Icdiruqurs, were obtained for different sub-catchments and these are summarised in Table 3-2 Monthly catchment average rainfall estimates for each site arc presented in Annex B3 for the prnud 1982 to 2005. This rainfall is used to estimate flows It these sites from a regional approach relating gauged flows to catchment area and ram fall Rain fill is also used in the VCatBi] water ba liner model software in an attempt ro model monthly flows ai these locations.
a ^ iterRoourrri (2)
13 May-! IFtdtrul Dtmotrufh RfaM.- of Ethiopia. Mirai fry oflTd/er <l~ Entry EfhnptJit Xilt Irrigation and Drutnag Prvprf
1
able 3-2: Long tcmi a
Month
verage arcai
Dam 8c diversion weir (left)
Diversion weir
n bl
( 'g )_________
Main Belen
Bridge
(anuatv
1.3
1.4
February
2.0
2.0
— -- ------------------- - ll
- 2i
March
12.4
12.7
__ __
If?
April
25-3
26.1
____ Ils'
Mav
93.0
94.7
_____
ll«
lune
199.4
203.5
2392
lulv
358.9
340.7
JM.J
August
314.6
315.3
3428
September
186.5
189.3
223.6
October
94.9
96.8
1154
November
13.8
14.1
144
December
2.8
3.0
----------------- -------- — ■ 421
Annual
1,285
1,300
1,471
The Main Beks is gauged at the bridge near to the town of Gilgel Bdrs in the southern part of the command area The period of available flow data for the Main Beles gauge is from 1962 to 2005 a long record of 44 years; however the record is not continuous with only 18 complete record years with 27 /o of the monthly flow data missing, rhe following regression equation is used to infill monthly flow information at Main Beles at budge <Qm») using rhe gauge for the Gilgel Bcle* (Qgs) as a donor station:
^ = 3.25^-2.27
However, when there are no flow records for Grigri Bries then the values are substituted with
the monthly the long term average flows for the Mam Bries The months flow data for the
Main Beles gauge station for the period 1982 - 2005 are presented in Annex D3
Figure 3-3 shows mean monthly flow, monthly maximum and
-
. ^um and minimum flow for Main Beles at
...
the badge gauge station. The plot shows lowest flows are between Ku
..
minimum flow in the month of April and flows peaking to a r
. . — .
. r . -a , _ 
rcn I ebruarv and Mav with a
‘
shows The relationship between rainfall and flows at Mam Belmesaximum in August Figure 3-4
diowing die seasonality of the nunfall and the delay betw
hydrograph.
> at the bodge gauge starion, b’ecn rainfall and die onset o! the flt>w
58
IJb F4 SrO1a Water Resources (2)f
9j Ef^' AfrW>/? *
M W* *** Pn^f
Figure 3-3: Monthly mean, maximum, and minimum flow at Main Belea at bridge gauge (1982-2005)
Figure 3-4: Monthly catchment average rainfaU for catchment to Main Bek. gauge at Bridge and Flow
4 SrGla \X >!er Resource* ;'2)
S9
13-Muy-llFederal DemoirtfK R/pMr of Efbrpea, Mimflry of Waler Enorgf Hfteptj* XJr lrn&fton and !) natal* Pneerf
Monthly flows at the right bank diversion weir and at the dam site (Q ,) along the \f
River arc generated using a regional approach using Main Beles ar Bridge monthly
and die following equation:
x 09 n
<2=j2 — —
3
2
2
1 Mb
; where, Qmb is the monthly flow of Main Beles River (m /s), A. is die catchment area upsit^ of diversion weir / dam site (km ), and Amr is the catchment area contributing to the gauge station on the .Main Beles at Bridge (km ), and P, is the areal monthly rainfall for the catcher upstTeun of each location (mtn), and Pmris the areal monthly rainfall over the Beles River catchment (mm). The estimated monthly flows data generated for the diversion weir and proposed storage dam arc provided in Annex D6
Table 3-3 provides a summary of the generated long term average monthly flows at the left bank diversion weir / dam sire and at the right bank diversion weir These flows arc plotted an Figure 3-5. These monthly flow estimates represent the flows under natural catchment conditions without the addition of the monthly releases from (he Tana-Beles hydropower station.
Table 3-3: Long term average flow (hP/b)
Month
Diversion weir
(left) & Dam
Divers ion weir (right)
Main Beles @
Bridge
January
0.9
1.3
44 
February
0.5
0.7
2.8 
March
0.4
0.5
2.0
Apnl
02
0.3
1.4
May
0.6
0.9
38 J
June
4.3
6 1
25.1 I
__
July
26.0
36,7
1345
August
45A
63.1
231.9 J
Seprcmtxr
28.9
41.5
164 7
October
12.8
183
.
74.9 —
November
33
4.6
182
December
1.1
1.6
69
Annual
10.4
14.6
55.9
60
t’b F4 SrOla Water Resource’ (2)
13 Miv 11w/ Dn****^
i-r^r N» !^I'JI Dnn"^ *&
*f IRiftr
3-5: Ixmg Term average flows under cm rural conditions
I OA0 tw* monthly flew
2W
j»»
frt!
Kpr
iUf
Jun
Jui
Mi
'-*1
OSI
*®v
D®c
QWw BBC* Bl &nug* ■DMtrwcr wy f £!5Mgn n*m >*g j
B
XJ Flaw estimation using tf/f 7H4£
The XVATBAL model is a model that simulates changes in soil moisture and runoff It is oscnlialh in accounting scheme based on a conceptualized., one-dimensional bucket that lumps both the juor and upper soil liver together (Yates and Sti7epck. 1994; Yates. 1996). The model campuses two dements. Hie first is a water balance component that describes water movement into and our of a conceptualized basin (Figure 3-6) The second is the calcubnon of potential evapotranspiration. The simplified representation of soil moisture dynamics has been shown to adequately represent runoff changes due to climate fluctuations (Yates, 1997),
] 'h Hsi ^rt.laWarET Rcsrlurcet
01
H May41rftifmi LWftnrt. •fMiopta, Mtm/fr, ^ITaftr & Entry
Ethaptu Niit lmfalw* aid Dnanjff Prqtrt
I’hc lumped waler balance model uses continuous functions of relative storage to reprc hydrological processes in the form of a differential equation (Yates 1996) Water enters th moisture store through precipitation and is removed either by evapotranspiration or dire runoff, surface runoff, subsurface runoff or baseflow The water balance component oft] model comprises six parameters related to: (f; direct runoff QJ); (ii) surface runoff (e) surface runoff (a and y); (rv) maximum catchment water-holding capacity' (S^); and (vi baseflow (Rs). The monthly soil moisture balance is written as:
|
where: Pen =
effective precipitation (lcngth/tunc)
R.
R..
surface runoff (lcngth/time)
sub-surface runoff (lcngth/time)
Ev
Pet
Rb
evapotranspiration (lcngth/time)
potential rvapotranspiration (lcngth/time^
base flow (length/time)
maximum storage capacity (length)
relative storage (length) (0 < z > 1)
the maximum water holding capacity ol a catchment reflects the relative importance of water storage on the hydrological regime of a catchment It is dependent primarily on the nature of catchment geology and soils, rhe storage variable z, is given as the relative storage
t
state and is a value between 0 and 1 Consequently, when is multiplied by z. it gives the volume of water stored in the catchment at any given time. Potential ev apotranspiration is computed using one of three methods (i) Penman-Monteith; (u) Priestley Taylor; or (iii) Thomth wane
Surface runoff R,, is described m terms of the storage state, - and the effective precipitation. P,« IJ H c. a calibration parameter allows for surface runoff to vary both hnearlv and non- linearly with storage (Yates 1996).
for
for P^Rt
Sub-surface runoff R,„ is a function of the relative unragc state I most cases rhe value of y is 2. bur for some basins may be different
Dnect runoff (Rd) * * function of the effective preeprutron ||nr>pt>:Ilon of precipitation that becomes direct runoff.
by a coefficient a In
62
1 ib F4 SrOla Water Rescue (2)
lKMay-11- V/* /r**‘" P^l‘
'Hie baseflow’ (Rh) must be entered into the model as a constant value Total runoff for each nmc Step is the sum of the four runoff components:
R.^=R + R,.^R -FR
>
id
r
optimising routine together with manual adfustment of parameters was used to calibrate these three parameters values by reducing the error between the observed and simulated runoff.
S^, has units of mm. Regions with higher runoff coefficients (Le average annual rainfall (mm)/avcragc annual precipitation (mm) generally have larger Snai and vice-versa Alpha (a) has units of mm/day and is directly related to sod water storage Regions with higher runolt coefficients generally have higher values of alpha (Le. wet forests) while regions with lower runoff coefficients generally have lower values for alpha (Le. deserts ind dry forests).
Epsilon (e) is umdess and defines the functional form of surface runoff, which depends on (he magnitude of the precipitation event and the relative storage. Smaller valurs of E represent an increase in the contribution of surface runoff; therefore, smaller E are generally associated with smaller soil moisture capacities and greater surface runoff. Regions with larger baseflow and flatter runoff hydrographs generally have a higher contribution of runoff from sub-surface flow 1 lighcr values of E tend to reduce the contribution from surface runoff. A general guide for optimizing SaK, a and £ is provided in Annex D7
The calibration and validation plots for the Upper Belrs river at the badge gauge arc shown on hrgurc 3- and Figure 3-8. The optimised parameter values calibrated from (he observed flows data arc provided in Table 3-4.
Calibration and vnbdation of WA TBAL modelparameters
In WATBAL hydrological processes arc simulated on the basis of a conceptual approximation as shown in Figure 3-6. Parameters are adjusted oi optimised until the model output is an acceptable estimate of the observed runoff. Calibrated parameters valurs are optimised against observed runoff data The observed runoff record ts split into two data seis one used for calibration and the other for validation When the °goodness” of fit values derived from the calibration and validation procedure are similar, then the fitted model parameters are deemed acceptable.
Krv model parameters arr Alpha (at). Epsilon (■) and Sm., \X ithin the model an automauc
13 May II
Rcwurcw (2)
63hir'd/ Drm^ratic fyab/h ofErhtopa. Mrn/f/r, of Water <’*' Ethwpwn /motion anti Dwtagr Pryrrt
Table 3-4: Optimised WATBAL parameters
WATBAL parameter
Model value
S~.
768
Epsilon It
7.35
Alpha (cl
4.47
J<3
325
z
0.1
Direct runoff ijl)
0.1
3.5
Egaoitaon of Bow nr diversion weir nod dna nit* uning ypA TBAL
Monthly flows at the nght bank diversion weir estimated usuw Warn at
alternative / comparison ro (he flews estimated using a reoi/»«,t
, 
, 
►.Ln
, 
aa
o "A 1 BAL model provide an
area and areal rainfall blows arr modelled using the optimised
, . r n Ki . 
ii~e
i
r
. . 
approach based on catchment
. , u Ki u t
.k l
P amcter values calibrated using
,
observed flow* at the Mun BeJes gauge, the caichmrnt rainfaT
'umarco to the right bank
diversion weir, and a catchment area of 865 km . The simulated nmn»l I n
2
, n . 
.. 
diversion weir are plotted on Figurr 3 9 and on bigurc 3-10.
, monthly flows at die right bank
I lb F‘4 SrOla Wafer Ke<otMcr« (2)
64
13-May t:rr^tflr Nf> J^f** Dnm^e PnfM
Figure 3-9: WATBAL modelled flow for diversion weir (right) from 1982 to 1994
S«n\|Mt«d Sow M H0N bark fvtnicr w»r
Figure 3-10: WATBAL modelled flow for divcnton weir (right) from 1995 to 2005
The mew innuil flow generated with WATBAL ts 12
a regional approach as outlined above The limitation o consider the physical characteristics of the catchment upirc^ catchment area A comparison of the long term average regional approach and WATBAL software is gisen on
^ ows in the wet season compared to the simplified regi
fa «•»„. Hows p.'semed - fa 
1 ana-Bcles hydropower stations would need to be ^pcr p°
u |h „ nel,h«
wclf only the
a
^iBAL under predicts
roach and vice versa during the
, releases from the
■
4s ^hU’irt r Rr
.
tr Hcuuncrs (2)
65
11 May 11'■E"T
66
13 Maj H
L’b E4 SfOla Water Rcwurcw (2)Mtm/tr, ,f I*, <*• fa**t*f A’«* **'* &'*•*' P'**!
4
design flood estimation
4 / Rtin fall Frequency Analysis
Design floods of return penods up to a 1100 mr
flows along rhe Upper Beles nver for destgn of the drver, is used to estimate the design rainfall depths for n-r. 
, „ 
U fre<P«»cy analysis
u k^.
RW.d ,L™ ’
jccXzzr r t
“ P “ ‘
Beles River catchment. Rainfall data was provided f
, a ,ht P,„ Cairn (AKQ The knee ellowej p.„ „„ri, 
„^He „ 
u-
”” '"""
° f ,hc LPP°
. P
’ *' 'SnCLj™‘1 Itaarch
° '* ■U"~""d “t » «"
of deP,
• Pa we (1986 -2008)
• Dangila (1982-2005)
• Mandura (1980 - 2005)
• Gorgora (1972 - 2006)
• Kunala (1981 - 1990)
The maximum annual duly rainfall data (ANAX) available for each station is presented in the Annex Fl. However. where years have significant missing data during wet season months, these data years were removed. Careful inspection of the data also warranted further investigation. Some values have been altered or removed, ’rhe maximum annual daily rainfall data used in the frequency analysis is given in Table 4-1
Table 4-1: Maximum annual daih rainfall for rain gauges
Maximum annual daily rainfall (mm)
Year
Mandura
Pawc
Dangila
Gorgora
Kunxila
1972
47
•
1973
512
1974
40.7
-
1975
50
-
1976
425
•
1977
40.4
-
1978
55.2
-
1979
60.6
-
1980
130
592
-
1981
1113
393
398
1982
86.8
33
592
1983
-
-
1984
50
Ml
402
1985
67.4
31
582
1986
116
28.6
605
1987
695
79.8
41.4
1113
1988
55
105.8
85.1
55.5
633
1989
102.5
115 8
78.5
375
- *
13-Mn-H
^Mirccs (2J
67fatMbhi oj EthipJ. Miiuifn 9ftifattr & Et/nfm Ntif lm&twt awi Dwjft Prvjtrt
[ Maximum annual daily rainfall (mm)
Year
Mao dura
PlWC
Dangila
Gorgora
1990
106.6
65.2
76.4
•
1991
1992
86.7
40
41.3
1993
58.2
43.2
60.5
1994
94.4
58.8
50.5
1995
-
108.2
382
65.7
1996
90.8
472
65.6
1997
-
150.1
485
40 5
1998
87.7
46.7
562
1999
53.8
68
40.9
2000
72.4
67
65.8
2001
-
722
42.5
38 6
2002
-
62.6
39.5
50.1
2003
73
88.7
45
53.8
2004
54.9
71.8
70
54.9
2005
68.5
70
59.8
51.3
2006
662
542
2(xr
-
56.6
2008
812
Elevation
1290
1.110
2,000
1.830
1.800
N=
13
21
17
32
7
X med
84.0
82.K
56.1
SD
48 0
61.8
26.5
23.1
154
CV
.
10.5
 _ 23.9 _
0.32
0.28
0.27
0 22
0.39 J
Max
130
1501
851
Min
. 65 R
1113 j
50
53.8
38.2
28.6
39.8 ___
_
RamUll frequency stub™ w» performed uMng prob.brlrty distribution, shown in Table 4-2 «o estimate die 1:10,125, I 50, and 1:100 yean rainfall depths
Table 4-2: Probabilistic distribution*
Probabilistic distribution
Parameter, adjustment method
log. - Normal (2p) (LN 2)
Maximum Likelihood
G umbel (GU)
ProbabdblK Weighted .Moment
General Extreme Values (GEV)
Probabilistic Weighted Moments
L Pearson Ill (PHI)
Maximum Likelihood
----- - —-- ---------------------------- Exponential (EXP)
Traditional Moments
Ul» r*4 SfOh Water Resources {#
13-May IIW W>*
The resulting rainfall frequency curves arc shown on Figure 4 I and Figure 4-2 and Figure 4-3 for the Pawe, Dangila and Gorgon rain gauges, respectively The three plots of rainfall frequency curves show that, foe short return periods (Le < 1:10 yr), all the distributions show a similar fit However, for return periods between 1:50 and 1:200 rears there is greater separanon between the different distributions
Figure 4-t: Rainfall frequency analysis for Pawe
■
I
69
15 May-11h<M DmWh Fdwrw. Mnoffn Waler & Etei# Elbipn Stit Impim &d Dwtjt Pftpt
Figure 4-1 Rainfall frequency analysis for Dangila
I
Frequency Analysis - maximum dally precipitation at Oanfl||a
Figure 4-3: Rainfall frequency analysis for Gorgora
Frequency Analysis . maximum daily precipitation at Gor <xa
B
i
I »b H SrOU Water Roomer* (2)
70
13 May 11W /"W*0** 
tfElhifu. Miniur, •ft'*" t*- Hoag,
P’**'
Table 4-3 presents the design rainfall depth estimated from the analvsis using a Gumbel (GU) distribution with the parameters adjusted by Probability Weighted Moments (PWM). The GU jutnbution is the preferred distribution as outlined in the ERA Drainage Manual (ERA 2002). The GV distribution on the whole shows a good fit through the daily annual maximum data in all plots. However, design rainfall depths can not be calculated for the rain gauge at Kunzda above a 1:2 rear or for Mandura or above 1:10 year return period because of only having 7 and t3 year of data respectively.
Table 4-3: Design rainfall depths using GU (PWM) distribution
Maximum daily rainfall (mm)
Station
Distribution
T=l:2yr
T= 1:10 yr
T=L50yr
T=L100 yr
Pawe
GU (PWM)
79
113
144
156
EhngiU
GU (PWM)
53
78
99
108
Mandura
GU (P9CM)
79
122
-
Gorgora
GU (PWM)
46
63
77
83
Kunzib
GU (PWM)
58
•
-
-
No run gauge is located in the upper part of the project area in the vicinity of the diversion weir or proposed storagr dam Figurr 2-14. The design rainfall depths arc calculated as the average of the Gumbel (PWM) rainfall values estimated for the Pzwc, Dangih and Gorgora rain gauges. These rain gauges arc in the vicinity of the project area and have long enough A MAX daily rainfall records to have confidence up to a return period of 1:100 years. The mean design rain tall depth from the frequency analysis is given m Table 4-4.
Tabic 4-4: Design rainfalls depth for Upper Beles catchment using a GU (PWM)
distribution
Daih rainfall depth (mm)
Catchment
Distribution
T= 1:2 yr
T=l:10yr
T=l:50yr
T=l:100yr
Upper Hcles
GU (PWM)
60
85
107
116
The estimated design rainfall depths are based on daily maxima data for the rain gauges. A ‘dock’ adjustment of 1.13 is applied to the daily rainfall depths to transform daily values to a 24 hi design rainfall depth (Table 4-5). Confidence in the design rainfall depths estunned for
I pper Beles catchment is given when compared to design depth specified in the Ethiopian Hoad Authority Drainage Manual (ERA, 2002). The proposed values are greater than the
^dicated in the Drainage Manual for the Region A2, but lower than values indicated for Bahir
• Lake Tana region.
11 14 S»0| 31 ty D
a| ,Cf (2)
71
t3-Mav-11Ff*rul ItyM of Eihofna. Mimitr) of W'attr <* Emj#
Frhspw* Nik IrrqjJto* and Drnt<ig Pnftd
Table 4-5: Design rainfall depths (24 hr) for Upper Bcles catchment
24 hr rainfill dcpt h immi
Station
T=E2yr
T= 1:10 yr T=l:50 yr
T=l:100yr
Upper Beks
67
%
121
131
i ERA 24 hr (2002) Reg. \2
52
79 J
KT
118
1 ERA 24 hr (2002) Lake Tana 1 - — —-------------- - -
131
__
187
74
211
4.2 Design storms hyetographs
The total duration of the storm hyetograph used for the Upper Bries catchment is based the
estimated time of concentration T of
c
the catchment The T was estimated using the Kirpich
c
method and Bransby and William s method ro give a time of travel for rhe catchments
Therefore, for each catchment the design rainfall was distributed over the number of houn estimated from the ume of travel using the alternative block method as outlined in Chow e:al (1988) distnbuung the rainfall into 15 minutes intervals ’Hie T values obtained are tabulated
t
beknv in Table 4-6.
Table 4-6: Time of con
Generation (T ) for the Upper
c
Beks catchment
Catchment
Area
(W)
Length
(km)
H
(®)
Tc
Kirpich
(hr)
Tc travel
time
(hr)
Tc Bramh
Wilhami
(hO
Darn & diversion weir (leh,
k.*
593
35.8
940
4.2
•o
95
Diversion weir
880
57.5
1050
7.0
10.9 ,
I5i
The rainfall depth, are adjusted for duration by estimating a rainfall correction factor (RCF) »’ follows-
Rev = 2L
Where, Pa*. is the 24 hr rainfall depth (mm) and P, (mm) is the ramfall depth for a gnen duration in this case 12 hrs estimated from rainfall intensity (mm/hr) gnen bv the IDF cune from the ERA Manual (21X12) The 24 hr design rainfall „ Tlbk w#s correctcd for dun^fi
of 12 hrs by applying a RCF adjustment of 0.9.
Finallv. an areal reduction factor (ARF) need* to 
. , 
2 ° aPP^d j the design rainfall depths as ar^J
-1
r
rarnfaU decreases as catchment area increases. But no ARj.
specdlcallv for Eduopu However. using rhe WMO (Wgj) Jn oy Og7 B ob[lined for a 12 hr storm event for a c.tchmen. with an area of 865 km-' WT.cn the ARF u calculated for this catchment using the F.ddes (1974) formulae and checked with the method ourlmcd in
the Transport and Road Research Laboratory (TRRJ.; RqK>n fw (1'iddcs, I9”6) then ARFs of 0 72 and 0 50 are estimated respectively
Afc.Qn
t'b F’4 &01a Wafer Resource* (2)
72However. these methods are general formulae for a given region and are not specific to the UppCr Bclc* catchment. The areal distribution of storms and the pattern of their movement over the I pp Beles catchment remain unknown as the run gauge network is loo sparse to
cr
quantify’ this However, by comparing the ratio between the mean raintail ind maximum rainfall for all storms (>25 mm of average rainfall’ between neighbouring gauges then some characteristic of the behaviour of storms in or near to the catchment can be made. These ratios for each rain gauge pur arc tabulated below in Table 4-7 have been estimated is follows:
R rTWTin " X (nux precipitation / mean daily precipitation', / N R rma “ Max (max. daily precipitation / mean daily precipitation)
Table 4-7: Ratio* between maximum daih, rainfall / mean rainfall (>25 mm)
Rain gauge*
Distance of gauges (km)
N'
P mean (mm)
P max (mm)
Pawr - Dangjla
50
200
0.72
0.99
Pawc - Mandura
22
120
0.71
0-98
Dangila Mandura
48
85
0.71
1.0
Dangila - Kunzila
72
72
0.73
0.96
Kunzila Gorgon
52
31
0.69
099
•V 11 number of dip with rainfall average between siatxn > 25 mm
These results indicate that similar characteristic storms are experienced at these ram gauges and after considering all approaches an ARF of 0.75 is adopted assuming a 12 hr storm event for a catchment area of 865 km* to the right bank diversion weir The final design 12 hr rainfall depths ffor a catchment area of 865 km-’) after the ARF is applied are presented tn Table 4-8.
Tahir 4-8: Final
rainfall depths for Upper Beks catchment
12 hr rainfall depth (nun)
Station
T= 12 yr
T= 1:10 yr
T=l:50yr
T=fcl00yr
Upper Bries
45
65
82
88
The temporal distributed 12 hr rainfall using the alternative block method (Chow el al 1988) is given in 1 able 4-9 and shown on Figure 4-4.
R
tesoutres (2;
73
13 May 11FfM Prmhw/h- KrpHi 9f Eihiyj. Sbwfn oflTdkr c*- E"ip ktiufiJH Nik Irrjfijiwr, at J Draw# Prtpl
Table 4-9: RainfaU hyetographs for a range of return periods (min)
Figure 4-4: Design storm hyetograph for Upper Beks catchment (L100 yr)
12 hs Dvsipn storm - T-100 year*
Upper Betas catchment
— ----------------------------------------------------------- —
I 200
I..
H 100
..
nrri TTTTT1 H
1__________________ —-
1
■—------------------------- -^1
-U-lJXrXT.TOO3
I’b ‘-4 SrVla \Kircr Rwwrrc* (2)
■M
13 .May1*
i .:»/j
Ffhf
ofEr^ia, Mwtn tflFafir Enfg
^.i0 VXr
Dna^ Pr^
Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)
A dam is designed co safely discharge rhe maximum possible flood without nsk of failure. An estimate of the probable maximum flood (PMF; is therefore required to estimate the spillway wndth of a dam to safely discharge a flood without overtopping and endangering the dam. The PMF flood is estimated based on probable maximum precipitation (PMP) which is the theoretical maximum precipitation that a given watershed can experience.
The PMP value represents an envelope of maximised intensity -duration values obtained from all types of storms PMP is a theoretical maximum precipitation (hat a given watershed can experience The World Meteorological Organisation (V["MO, 1986) defines the PMP as
’thfontiL'dii) the pfaiut irpth offfredfitation for a pren duration that it phyrtcttib f^utbk ottrapvtn ft^r ston* arta at aparticular goprafthwl hafto* at a certain tune of they* ar The procedures for estimating the PMP include; (i; meteorologic*] methods, and (li) statistical methods
The meteorological methods comprise those based on severest storms observed and those that simulate extreme conditions by means of storm models This method is data intensive and requires good knowledge of the climatic and weathrr condition in a region The statistical method is rhe more commonly used technique and is based on the use of the general frequency equation (Chow, 1964. 1988) and allows a rapid estimation of the PMP when rainfall daia are available.
When selecting a method to use. it is important to consider the meteorological conditions of the region, the catchment size, the quantin' and quality of the available climate data, as well as rhe characteristics and number of observed storms. When long records of rainfall are absent and other climatic data arc limited, the general consensus is to use the statistical method
Among the most accepted statistical method is the one developed by Hirschfield (1961) which is often referred to as WMO statuneal method, where the PMP or Pm is given by:
Pn 1 and Sn 1 and arc the mean and standard devianon respectively excluding the highest maxima value (Pl) from the rainfall senes The Km value nr frequency' factor is dependent on the average maximum rainfall, and the rainfall duration. Km values have been evaluated bv Hirschfield (1961) by enveloping Km values of observed extremes, where Km is given by:
A, « „
Hirschfield (1961) initially proposed a value of 15 as the maximum frequency’ factor in any
’•^nation, but later suggested that this value varies inversely with the ma gm rude of the annual rnaximuin mean rainfall. In different parts of the world many authors proposed different K v Alues or upper curves reb ting K with annual maximum mean precipitations (daily). Ongoing Search by Mnges (2009) has looked to re-estimate the PMP for rhe Abbay River basin in Ethiopia. He estimates an upper limit for the Km value of 13 for the region of the Abbay Basin
r Kesciirrcj 12)
75
13-Mav-11Minutr, 'JV^
Elhof^x Nik l^trox <ud Dili* Prytrt
oecwMcd b, d>e Beta over ortho,tn, Mops (2009) pvrrs . 24 hr PMP ,,> rh. p,*,^ 400 mm for rhr regron rmbmcmg rhe Upper Beier river urchmeor. However. Mn(s, rj^ research m proper, so . Km v Joe of 1S h.s been adopted or Ous study
In this study, the WMO statistical method is used to estimate the 24 hour PMP based on the
maximum annual daily rainfall from the Pawe, and the nun gauge at Dangila and Gorpta^
rain gauges have years until missing daily data during the wet season. Tn case of years W(h i
months with missing data or I month missing data m the wet season data arc not included
When 24 hr PMP is estimated using daily maxima data, an observation period adjustment
'dock’ adjustment factor is applied to the rainfall depth to correct for the difference between
daily and 24 hour observations. In the absence of adequate local information, a clock adjust factor of 13% proposed by I lirschfield (1961 and 1965) was adopted.
The WMO statistical method requires a senes of adjustments and these include: (i) adjustmenr
for the effect of an outlier in the mean
(ii) adjustment for rhe effect of an outlier ui tk
standard deviation (Sxjj), and (iii) length of record adjustment X« and a length of record adjustment S*. The values for these adjustments are expressed as percentages in Table 4-10.
Tabic 4*10: Adjustments for outliers and length of record for mean and standard
deviation
Adjustment
Pawe
(1987-2008)
Dangila
(1988-2005)
Gorgora
(1972-2006)
1.04
LOO
0.98
S-5t
_
Xo
1.10
1.10
LIO
1.03
1.03
1.01
s„
1.08
LOB
1.05
l’hc estimated PMP depths based on daily maxima data for the Pawe, Dangila and Gorgon gauges arc given in Tabic 4-11 A 'clock’ adjustment of 1 13 is applied to the daily PMP depth’ to transform daily values to a 24 hr PMP (Table 4 12). Maximum areal rainfall decreases as th' area increases therefore an areal reducnon factor (ARP) is applied to the 24 hr PMP values In graphs published by the W orld Meteorological Organization (1983). for a 24 hours event and i catchment area to the dam site of 590 km’, an ARP of 0.92 is obtained. Others formulanons have been used in East Africa including hidden (1974) gning a ARI’ of 0.75. whereas Fiddes (1976) gives a ARI’ of 0.83 W ithout more specific information for Ethiopia an ARF of 0-9 B used for a catchment with an area of 590 km’. Table 4 13 show, 24 hr PMP adjusted for a 0 9
ARF
Table 4-11: PMP daily (mm) ___________________________ ___
PMP daily (mm)
Pawe
(1987-2008)
Dangila
(1988-2005)
Gorgora
(1972-2006)
498
331
229
Ul» IM SiOU Water Resources (2)
76
13 Muy -11N'* rm^on '*< Dnr^r Pn^
4-12: 24 hour PMP (mm)
PMP daily (nun)
Pawe
(1987-2008)
Dangila
(1988-2005)
Gorge ra
(1972-2006)
563
374
259
Table 4-13: Areal 24 hour PMP (mm)
PMP daily (mm)
Pure
(1987-20M)
Dangili
(1988-2005)
Gorgorj
(1972-2006)
Average
.506
336
233
359
4,4
The mean value for ihr three rain gauge giving a value of 359 mm is taken as the areal 24 hr PMP for the Upper Bries river catchment. This value m based on dally rainfall data with missing data vans excluded, This 24 hr PMP depth is tn dose agreement with rhe 24 hr PMP depth report for this region by Mogts (2009) in the order of 330 to 360 mm This provides
confidence m the 24hr PMP depth estimated for this study.
Temporal distribution of the PMP
Because there is no readily available information of the rainfall hourly distribuoon when extreme storm events occur, the 24 hr PMP values tabulated above were half-hourly distributed by using the following equation;
P = M^T
Where P is rainfall depth, T is rainfall duration and M is a constant. Using the known PMP (P) value of 359 mm and their durations tn the equation, the M value is determined for each one of the PMP durations Then the accumulated rainfall value for each hour at the time of the PMP occurrence is determined, by using the appropriate M value and the required T. Taking the differences between adjacent hours it was possible to obtain the half hourly rainfall distribution during the two PMP events. The final step was to arrange the hourly senes for each PMP by using the AltematingBlock Method (Chow et if 1988).
Table 4-14 gives sub hourly distribution of the 24 hr PMP applied io the Upper Belos rrver catchment
p 4Srf)t
un Rrtourra {2)
77
IVMayJld™™-- Rf** * A,'’u'fT n‘"tr
f:/Z*rt<Jt Nik lmgafi* nd Drang Pnftd
Tabk 4-14: PMP design rainfall distribution for 24 hour storm applied over Upper fl
catchment
Time
p
Time
P
Time p
Time
-L .p .
0.25 0.00
6.25 1 2.40
12.25 5.7
1825 3.0
0.50 0.00
0.75 1 0.00
6.5 144
12.5
291
6.75
2.48
12.75
-
2.8
1.01 o.oo
7.0 1 2.53
13.0
6.3
7.2
8.6
125 0.00
7.25 2.58
13.25
116
1.5 0.00
.-7-5 2.63
13.5
28
2.7
2.7
1.75 188
7.75 169
15.75
36.6
15.2
10 1.90
80
2.75
14.0 9.8
-1
125
1.93
8 25
2.81
14.25
25 1.95
8.5
188
145
18.5
18.75
19.0
19.25
19.5
19.75
20.0
20.25 20.5
t±
2.5
------- ~ 25
2.75
1.97
875
195
1475
5.0 1.99
9.0
3.03
15.0
7.8
6.7
5.9
5.4
5.0
4.7
44
41
40
3 8
20.75 21 0
.
2125 2 1
.
24
24
525 2.02
9.25
 512
1525
5.5 2.04
9.5 3.21
15.5
21 5 2 A
5.75 2.07
9.75
532
15.75
40 + 209 425 2.12
7 1D
_ 10.0 1 . 3.43
10.25 3 56
. 16 25
16 0
___ 45 L 215
 475 t 118
J05 . 3.70 10.75 386
16.5
8
16 75
5.0 J 2.21
11.0
4.05
17.0
21 75
2io]
22.25
J2J5
n
•» •
2 2 — -i?
21
5.25 125
1125 1 426
17 25
5.5
G TC
__ J
6.0
Total
| 128
i 152
IL5 1 451
.
17.5
JL75_
12.0
23.25 23.5
2.1
 21
21
p8L
| 518
 17.75
_ 180
3.6
3 5
3 4
__ 32
-J.2 ____ 3.1
23:75_l _ 2.0_ _ 24 <> 20
359
Design flood hydrographs
Rainfall runoff modelling is used to transform the a for a range of return period floods The hvdro_ 7^
'° dto,gn flood hydroP,phs
in HEC-HMS verston 3.2 > lydrolopc Model’s RCn"a,ed USU1« riln™ ™noff ro‘xitl’
developed and matntaxned by the HydroJogtc K
JIEC-IIMS software js
Engineering and is used for hydrological and hv^k"1^ C”'’'' CS C°TS °l
selected as it is a sophnucated and versatile hvdrol 1 
“"g
HEC-HMS is
widely through the world and on many dam siudie^r 77'lhne P*C,Uge “d h>5 been USC<) as ArcSVtAT is limited in methods to generate flows and u | *" E,blop“ Software such
reservoirs, whereas SHE software although sophisticated d which is difficult in a data sparse region. 
'° t'pf“ent dlms *nd
* r«;uirc a lot of parametensaaon
HEC-HMS software is designed to simulate the surface runoff resui
representing the catchment as a system of interconnected componen ’°m
represents a sub catchment, a channel reach or a reservoir, simulating the I dJ°mpOncnt processes through mathematical relationships as a function of a set of specifi
results of the modelling proerss are the flow hydrographs. Calibration
°
1 a ^e(cf5
,s possible when
lib F4SrOla Water Resource* ,'Z
ISXUy-H* Erhnpit, Miiwty •/ V^rr E^
*d Dranjff Pf^r
saffiaent d.M at an appropriate ttrne step « available Without hourly data possible for the response time of the overs that mtersect the project area. " " “
Tl t c
dndoped by M
“* m"h°d0l°* 
S™ (SCS). f„ M
hvd^.ph .**, fcdopri by CM (lw„ 
of flood .m. m eh.„„l
“ Cu- Nutnber (CN)
J
,
' “*
„ Mo,!^.^
2
This methodology uses CN to estimate catchment retention. CN values are estimated based on the Ministry of Water Resources ETHIO-GIS digital sod map, as well as FAO land use and
land cover data were obtained from different topographic maps and field observations. This approach is widely used in estimating effective rainfall and design hydrographs
Specific catchment characteristics are needed to generate flood hydrographs tn HEC-HMS rainfall-runoff models Sub-catchments arc created to account for the spatial variability of the hydrological process Catchment characteristics are determined from the DEM acquired from SRTM (Shuttle Radir Thematic Mission) data with a resolution of 90 m Catchment characteristic determined from the DEM include:
• Catchment boundaries,
2
• Catchment area (km );
• Length of the longest watercourse (km); and
• Catchment average slope (m/m).
Each catchment is schema used into sub-catchments based on their drainage network On the Upper Bcles river Muskingum and Cungc hydrological routing is used to phase the tnburanes hydrographs together and then propagate the flood wave downstream
Model Schemangttion for Upper Belt* River
The HEC-HMS model schemausauon of the Upper Bcles nver and Its tributaries upstream o the nght bank diversion weir is shown Figure 4-5 The physical catchment characteris derived for these sub catchments is given in Table 4-15Yttterai Df^raft. Rjp»Wr.« Efhrefva, MiiWty W'atir c> Ethitfxar. Nik anti Dne^gt prwcrfSub-cacchmrnt label*
Area
(km^)
Length
(km)
—------- -
Height
difference
(■)
CN
(H)
Tc Kirpich (hr)
Tc travel time
(h«)
Tc Braniby
- Williams
2jf)
Wei 1
1226
19.9
790
78
23
35
5.7
We1 2
68 1
18.7
720
76
*> •>
33
5.7
Wei .3
52 9
12.2
720
76
1.4
1.9
3.S
We 1,4
91.5
20.6
660
75
2.6
4.0
6.3
We 1,5
3.1
3.9
170
75
06
1.0
1.6
We 1,6
70.9
189
740
75
2.2
3.3
5.7
We 1.7
366
167
810
76
19
X7
5.2
Wel 8
52.4
155
730
75
1 8
2.6
4.7
Wei 9
51.9
116
680
75
13
1.8
3.4
We I 10
29.3
7.2
550
74
0.8
1.1
XI
Wel tl
134
5.3
490
74
06
0.8
1.6
We2 l
105.7
17.6
1260
75
1.7
23
46
We2,2
166.3
25.3
1290
74
X5
38
66
Total
864.7
Ub IM SrOla Wafer K cm Hirers (Z)
81
13 May 11FnM
•/ Ertefw. Wuffn ^lTafer dr E
rJtefw Nik Imptot jd Dwqt /W
4.7 Estimation of time of lag Tl and time of concentration T<
Tunc lag Ti or the time from centre of excess rainfall to time of peak of h d foDows: °^ph is
^=0.61
Three methods are available for calculation in the time of concentration Tf these include th Bransbv William formula, Kirpich formula, and the expression for the travel time dncJo ji the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) of USA.
The Bransbv William time of concentration T formula is given as:
c
T = 14.61^'!^
2
; where 1. is the length of the longest watercourse (km), A is the catchmrnf area (km ), S is the catchment average slope H/L fm/tn). and 11 is (he difference in devadon between the outlet point and the maximum watershed divide (m).
The Kirpich time of concentration (T ) formula is given as:
c
T = 0.00032L0”J^*’
where, L is the length of the longer watercourse (m). S is the watershed slope (m/n>).
The T. can also be calculated using the expression for the travel time developed by the Sod Conservation Service (SCS) of USA as following.
T' ~ I ** + t M
where, /^is the sum of travel nine in sheet flow segments over the watershed land surf*<* is noma ted using the following
_0.007(N )“
L
“■ (p”,T)
«We. I t. the flow length. P, u the 2-year or 24 hour ramfall depth. $ is the slope, and N 3 the overland flow roughness The sum of of travel in .hallow flow segments 3
Where, V is the average velocity of the unpaved surface or sheet
following
flow is estimated using rhe
t’b F4 SrOJs Uitrr Rctourcn (2l
82
3‘.. w‘ Etfafw. Miltft/V ¥ U‘"" L’"P
iz = 16.1345.r
FimllVi die 5lim W1VC^Ttmc in Cannel segments AamwIS pven by rhe following:
L
VfhefCj L is the channel length and \ is the average velocity based on thr Manning's equation.
Generali?, the Kirpich formula tends to give lower values compared with the Brans by VTdliam which uses die catchment area as additional parameter Application of simplified general equations such as Kirpich for determining T results in too short of a time of concentration
c
particularly when the average basin slope vines significantly from the mean channel slope as in steep topography in areas in the upper catchments Therefore, the design nme of concentration T is taken as the mean of the three esomarcs.
c
j g Endm^OoD
peak flov
The design rime of concentration T, is then tued in the calculation of peak discharge Q (nV A)
p
given as:
_ 0.208^
^ 0,5D + 0.6T
_
; where id is rhe excess raintail depth (mm)t A is catchment area (km2) and D is the duration of excess rainfall (hr),
The Soil Conservation Service (SCS) Curve Number (CN) model estimates rainfall excess depth rj (mm) as a function of cumulative precipitation, soil cover, land use. and anircedrnt moisture The depth of runoff resulting from a required return period rainfall drpth of duration corresponding to the rime of concentration T is estimated by:
e
_(P0.2Sf
P + 0.8S
• where, S is the potential retention (mm) and P is design rainfall amount of duration T£ corresponding to T years return period (mm).
1 he potential retention S (mm) is ri m a red and watershed characteristics are related Lhiuugh an ^ternicdiare parameter, the curve number (CN) as:
Runoff occurs ooh- when the accumulated rainfall depth exceeds the initial abiuactiori L The *S have developed an empirical relationship between initial abstraction ind potential
retention S, where:
Wf.
3tCr Resound f2)
13-Nby 11
S3M I”**" ** r>nc«^r Mf
/.=0-25
The CN for i witenhcd is estimated as a function of land use, sod type, and antecedent
watershed moisture, using tables published by the SCS m Technical Report 55 and ERA
(2001). The CN for the sub-catchments in the Upper Beks river catchments have been
estimated based on the Ministry of Water Resources ETHIO-GIS digital soil map, as 15
FAO land use and land cover data obtained from different topographic maps and field observations. Estimilcd CN values from hydrological soil groups that are found in the Uppe Beks project area arc determined CN used for all the main rivers, tributaries and smaller courses are given in Tabk 4-15.
The Clark hydrograph method requires the estimation of the parameters time of concenuincxi T and the storage coefficient *R’. The T< is estimated using 3 formulae: (i) Kirpich method, fa;
c
the expression for the travel time developed by the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) of USA and Cm) the Bransby Williams method. The design T is taken as the average of the three
5
t
estimates
Estimates for the R storage coefficient are made using 2 approaches: (i) from the recession luri of hydrographs observed at the Mun Beks gauge station (6005); (ii) from R values obtained in the literature Eleven hydrographs were selected for analysis with flow peaks ranging from 515 m'/s to 1986 tri /*. This analysis estimates an average time of travel of the flood wave (K) of!-' hours and an average T, of 36 hours to the gauge station resulted in a R storage coefficient of 0.9 (T./K). A value of 0.9 is consistent with values reported in the wider literature. AU 1 r
for storage coefficients R for sub-catchments upstream of the right bank diversion wen arc given in Tabk 4-16
Table 4-16: Adopted Tc and R
Sub-
cauhmcnt
label
Tc (hn)
R(b*r)
Wel.l
38
3.4
Wei .2
38
3.4
Wei ,3
23
20
Wei .4
4.3
3.9
We1_5
LI
1.0
Wcl.G
3.8
3.4
Wei J
32
29
Wei .8
3.0
27
We 1.9
22
20
Wei 10
13
1.2
I Wcl ll
1.0
0.9
1 We2 1
29 1 26
Wc2 2
43 1 3.9
I ’b 1-4 SfOta Water Roounrw ,2)
84
13-JKtay-llfi+JD*"***
Mwfoy y ITrtrr &
\f* Pna^dff Pn^r
The design ram fall hyetographs are fed »to the rainfall-ru^ff storm hyetograph is based on the estimated T< for each c t h
generated from rainfall-runoff models pass tnto routing reaehZTn hydrographs which propagates downstream. The propagatron of’^
d “"°on of
‘° ,Onn ’ 'tn*k
uses kinematic routing in the form of Muskingum an<l t 1100,1downstream
hydrological model For each routing reach a cross
an in bank Manning roughness of 0.045 to 0.05 and of 0 1 t« n m ?* *” ,dop" -
d
HECHMS
,o ® for the out-of hank pan
Design flow estimation at the dhrenioa weir (natural condition,)
The IIEC-HMS hydrological model is used to generate the hrdrographs for a range of return penod design storms for locations upstream of the proposed drversion weir and proposed storage reservoir. The rainfall-runoff model, are ret up using the catchment characteristics outlined in Table 4-15. applying rainfall hyetographs based on design depth, tn Table 4-16 with durations set to the estimated T for each catchment. The design flood peaks for the 1:2,1:10,
c
1:50 and 1:100 years deSIgn storm upstream of the (i) proposed storage dam site, and (ii) right bank diversion writ sire are tabulated below in Table 4-1? assuming natural condioon.
Table 4-17: Design peak flows (naturaJ conditions)
Site
Catchment
Area
(km^
Design flow
(tn’/a)
T=1.2yrt
Design flow
(«*/•)
T=l:10yn
Design flow
(nP/a)
T=L-50yra
Design flow
(•*/•)
T=L100yra
Dam site
590
141
325
527
620
Diversion [VI cir (nght)
865
196
456
742
870
Figure 4-6 shows the design hydrographs at rhe storage dam site and at the cght bank diversion weir, for 1:100 years return period tor natural conditions.
IJAUt 11
rsrtdml
f F-Afu. 
,:,r V
l:lh*C*n N’dr <ni l>na94ff Nv**
4.10 Sensitivity uudysti of design Hows (natural condition?)
The design flous can van dependent on the antecedent soil conditions and rhe method used10 estimate the nmc to peak Ip. Sensitivity analysis has been performed on the estimation of the 1:100 year return period flood to firstly to investigate the influence of antecedent soil moisnift conditions on the magnitude of the peak flow, and secondarily the influence of die wav the T *
p
calculated ic. using the SCS method compared to the Clark method to estimate die unit hvdrograph.
The rainfall runoff modelling was repeated using the 1:100 year return period rainfall depth and Clark method but dunging the representation of the antecedent *oil moisruxr conditions in the HEC-HMS hydrological model This was achieved by altering the CN to a value ranging fax” 87 to 89 to represent antecedent wet conditions. An antecedent soil moisture ope II (average' was used in the rainfall runoff model A 1:100 year return period hydrograph was generated at the diversion weir site using wet conditions (type 111) for the sods before the rain commence The resulting peak flow is tabulated below. Table 4-18
Table 4-18: Diversion weir 1:100 year design flow for wet antecedent condirioos
1:100 year design How
Wei antecedent
condition*
Peak flow
(»>/.)
Peak time
(hr)
Volume (Mm’)
CN (type III)
------------ —-----------------------
1,520
11:15
49
R6
! ’h H SrOla Water Resources (2)
13 \r »-n
0y 
•fr*trr f
r
Table 4-lfrl.l00 year
n,^ rtinfdl runoff modelling was repeated usmg the 1:100 year return penod rainfall depth
jnd SCS method rather than using the Clark method to estimate the unit hydrograph in so
Xmg th' to Tp ind gIVen "
T = — +0.6T
’2
Where D duration and T< is the tune of concentration, given by the catchment lag Ti^, the time difference between the centre of mass of a rain storm and the peak of the unit hydrograph
where
T, = 0.6T t
The resulting 1:100 year flow peak for the diversion weir resulting from using the SCS method to estimate the T and unit hydrograph is given in Table 4-19.
flow for diversion weir SCS method
1:100 year design flows
T F method
Peak flow
(mVs)
Peak time
(hr)
1
Volume (Mm )
SCS unit hydrograph
1,126
10.45
__________
282
The 1:100 year design peak estimated using the SCS method to estimate the unit hydrograph is about 29% higher compared the peak of 870m'/s obtained using the Clark method The peak estimated using wet antecedent sod moisture conditions (type III) gives a peak flow which is about 75% higher compared to the peak estimated using the Clark method. Hus analysis a useful to understand the sensitivity of peak flow estimation when using un-calibrated models.
Comparison of design flow (natund conditions) from other methods
The 1 100 year design estimate at the diversion war based on the above approach is compared to flows estimated using the regional equation proposed in the BCEOM Abbay over Master
2
pho (1999) for catchment less than 10,000 km , where
Qmu ioo = 47.8 A0339
13-Miy 11
87f rJru/ LVww’XJ. Rtfak; af E'fapM. Afrctfn ITgfrr c*-
Fj*wCu9 Xi> D’at^e Prwrtf
for 1:100 vcar flood
1:100 year design peak flow
(m’/t)
B
< «0M.W,
Location
Area (km*)
Max flow
T= 1:100 yrs
Storage site
593
416
I Diversion Weir
(right)
880
476
Main Beks it badge
3,431
755
GilgdBde,
675
435
—
Peak flood flows estimited using the regional approach is considerably lower compared to those estimated from the rain fall runoff modelling
Estimated flows arc also compared with design flows estimated from flood frequency anafotf from gauged data which are then transposed to the locations of diversion weir and proposed storage site upstream. I able 4-21 shows the statistical summan of the annual maximum flows
for 6c Main Beks river at 6c bndge (St 6005) and Gilgc! Bcles near Mandura (St 6<XM) gauge stations (Annex D8 and Annex D9). Figure 4-7 and Figure 4-8 presents flood frtquex-.
analyses foe 6c Main Beks river at 6c bndge and Gilgc! Beks (St 6004) near Mandura gauge
Table 4-21:Statiaciral
mmuygf annual m»ximum nOWi
Main Belts at
bridge (1962-
2005)
N=
Q-d(m7i)
S(m7t)
CV
as
Mix (m*/*)
Min (nP/i)
35
677
4201
062^
J.85
1986
182
Main Beks at
bridge (1982-
2005)
22
381.2
049
1.80
1986
Gilgel Beka
nr Mandura
(1982 - 2005)
19
209.8
87.9
0.42
0.83
396
98
Cb F4 SfOla Vt'atrr JUaranref (2)
13-Maj’Hr a,r^ E"rt>
•f -
figure 4-7: Frequency analyais ofannuaJ maximum flood for Mam Bclc. *r bodgr
Frequency anatyila ■ annual maximum flowa Main Bales at bridge
Figure 4-8: Frequency- analysis of annual maximum flood for Gilgd Beks near Mandura Frequency analysis - annual maximumflows
I3-Ahr.il
[ c»xiru.-5 (2\hJnfr*!* 
MtKJfn ^ff&Eatrp
!1^mCu» NA
nJ Druitt Pw*f
Hex short return periods (<10 yean) all the distributions show a srmihr bchavio penods greater than 1:10 yean the GEV distribution gave a better fit (Table ^22/°'
Table 4-:
1.
(lows from
>• analysis
Mais Belen at
bridge (1962-
2005)
Main Belea at
bridge (19S2-
2005)
Gilgcl Betei nr
Mandura (1982
-2005)
Q2 yean
568
692
191
Q10 vean
1,165
1.230
33!
Q50ycan
1.920
1.837
468
QlOOyean
2J27
2.140
530
The relationship between maximum flows and the catchment area arc shown tn Tabic 4-23
Main Betel at
bridge (1962 -
bridge
Gilgel Belen
nr Maodura
QlO/Ara
3
im /i knr,
QI 00/Ami
7
j (mVi/km )
2005)
034
068
(1982-2005)
0.36
0.62
(1982 - 2005 )
0 49
0.79
Normally, these relationships increased as the area of the catchment decreased although other factors like catchment slope or soils type can also affect this relationship. As a first appro**1 applying the average of these relationships to area for the location of the proposed st<x»g« reservoir the estimated maximum flood, are 256 m'/s for the 1:10 year return period and about 413 m’/s for the 1:100 year return period flood. For the downstream diversion weir (right bank) the estimated maximum floods are approximately 343 m'/s for a 1 10 vear return p«w<i and aboui 603 m’/s for 1:100 year return penod flood
Tlse mean skipe (AH / 1.) of the Mam Belc, „ brtdge catchment „ ordef of 8 m/ktn
’’
the order of 19 m/km
U “ CltChrnen' “ 18 ™/lun The mean slope of the GtlgeJ Beles is «•
r
4.12 Water level* at diversion weir (natural conditions)
Hydraulic analysts was undertaken using . HEC-RAS model teptesentmg a section of channel at the over diverse war me. Etgure 4-9 show, the maximum water levels in long profile for dilfcrent return perasd design flow, under natural condmon. Figunt 4-10 presents the
maximum water levels and vdooucs within thr
i
i . j n u, ma 
thCdlvcn>On^ao»^ectionandh>iiraubc
.
results are tabulated tn 1 able 4-24.
L7» 1*4 S<0li Water Rrstrurrcj (2)
90
13 May-Hfl p„e 4-92Hv^U£'2"KP[l ^J^^
fi
r ~~ “ 
a—«n rw ^Rnti
vean (Oilaril condWon,.
------------ ~—--------------------------------- __4
Figure 4-10: Maximum levels at Diversion Weir cross section for T=li2, fcl0> L50 and
'Jb .
f
4Sr°M’a!tTR Source* Ch
IKMnll
91Xilr
Kr«ie. y Mtwrfrr & Etfrp f>*w«^r P*!*1
Table 4-24:
Return
period
Design flow
(«’/»)
Min.
channel
elevation
(masl)
lie results at cross section of the diversion weir
Velocity of
channel
(m • »)
Water
surface
elevation
(mail)
if (natural
Top widit
(m)
Frtw
2
196
1.230
UU.73
3.50
486
5.86
57.1 2530
10
456
1.230
1,23536
50
742
1.230
1.236.70
JO4_
149.4
100
870
1.230
1.237.26
6.25 no
31.89
3 5 95
38.17
.070
3°£
041
4.U Maximum design Oowt at the diversion weir
The operation rules outlined by the Lahmeyer study (2000) for the diversion to the Tina Befa hydropower station were updated by Salini and Pietrangell (2006) The diversion to the Tana Beks power plant is bised on a design discharge of 160 m'/s and a plant factor of 048, equivalent to an average discharge of 7? m’/s. There arc 4 turbines, under normal operation there will be 1, 2,3 or 4 turbines in operation. The fourth turbine is only used as a spare, dunqt maintenance, or is used as an additional turbine when lake levels are high when the Chara-Cha wetr is at risk of spilling
Tlie operating rules adopted in design report of Salmi and Pietrangell (2006) arc simple A minimum operational level of 1.784.0 mail is adopted and an average turbine discharge of m'/s was assumed for a wide range of lake levels (Le. >1784.3 but <1787.0 masl). The discharge bom the tuibmes arc increased to 160 m’/s at high lake level (i e >1787.0 masf but operations are stopped at low lake levels. The regulated outflow to the Abbay river is fixed at 1 m’/s Similar operational rule, have been suggested bv the SMEC (2008) study where a nummum operational level of 1784.75 masl » recommended bur also uses an average turbine discharge of 77 m3/s whh discharge from the turbines increasing to 160 m’/s at high lake le^ to present spillage over the Chara-Chara war The SMEC study *2008) suggests the regulated outflow from to the Abbay over could be fixed for some months at 10 m’/s
Dunng the wet season, floods m the Upper Beles riser could comrade with high lake level* above 1.787.0 masl. During such times discharge from the turbines of 160 m’/s could be released downstream into the Jehan. river. . ma or tnbutary of the Upper Beles river, and be
(
coincident with a flood peak generated from the natural catchment upstream of the storage dam and (right bank) drversson weir. A. a wont case, the maximum d«wn flood peaks to be expected at the storage site and the dmenion weir „e tabulaied in Table 4-25 bclosv based flow, in Table 4-17. For a less extreme case Table 4-26 presents the maximum design to be expected a. the storage sue and the drveruon war d the average dtscharge, from the
of 77 m /. are couxsdent wuh a large flood genera.ed ,n
Ub F-4 SrOla Wjrrr Revwjrcr* (2)
92
! 3-Shy-1 ’px**'
1 JI _ --- -
Site
Catchment
Area
km
( *)
Design flow
T-1:2vr»
Design flow
(mV.)
T=l:10yr»
Design flow
(mV«)
T=1:50 yrs
Drtqpj flow
(“’/•)
T=L100yr»
Storage Mte
590
501
485
687
780
Diversion
Weir (right)
865
356
616
902
1030
Tab lc 4-26: Dcaign peak flo
ws (future co
edition with 1
i) dropower releaaes of 77 m
’/•)
Site
Catchment
Area
^knv)
Design flow
T=iaym
Design flow
(o»7.)
T=l:10 yra
Design flow
(nP/a)
T=E50yrs
Design flow
(■»*/•)
T=l:100yra
Stonge site
590
218
402
604
697
Diversion
Weir (nght)
865
273
533
819
947
Design Hows for sizing cross dninsge structure scross msin csosb
The design peak floods were also estimated for 10 major streams intersecting the nght bank main canal and 19 major streams intersecting the left canal. Figure 4-11. The streams intersecting the left bank canal drain from the steep slopes of the escarpment and arc likely to cross beneath the proposed alignment for the left bank main canaL The list of main stream which are intersected and their upstream sub-catchment characteristics are tabulated in I able 4-27 along with flood flows Flood flow estimates are needed to design required cross drainage structure so that the flood flows pass across the main canals without causing damage to them The design peaks for different return periods have been estimated using the SCS method, using a mean value for the Tc value, and design rainfall depths as described previously. Field measurements of flow in these streams would improve the certainty in flows estimated.
BMay-11
mF-rJra/
E/Mpuw Nmf
Mntrtrt V jjrr <** ^»*T
!>***' f*^i
_.» Jt r. Main canal, and Catchment Schematiaation Figure 4-11: Stream, interaecring the Vpper Brie. Right and Lef
«in*3«
.4vhmb
(F+JD'"*’1*'
^u, ,W *V*< ^^rwt^r P/Bmr
Abmrfn oftTj/fr C* E*^
Taibk ^-27: Characteristic of catchments of major streams intersecting the right and left
R^Urccs (2)
lJ-Mn-11
95LA/ATER balance modelling, operational rules and w irrigation development in the beles river
CATCHMENT
iotfoducOOD
I^ke Tina, the source of the Abbay (Blue Nik) river, is a valuable water resource, but is ccologicaHy fragile As part of the Ethiopian Government's strategy to main the Millennium Development Goals Lake Tana and the adjacent Beks river basins have been identified as one of the countries five growth corridors. The long term vision of the Ethiopian Government is to inns form the local economy from a subsistence, predominantly agricultural one which makes limited use of the abundant water resources to an economy based on the development of water resources that contribute to growth in multiple sectors. The result will be acceleration in regional growth and a reduction in poverty Although water resources are presently abundant tn the Lake Tana basin improved management of this finite resource is critical if sustainable growth in agricultural productivity, energy production, livelihoods, health and a reduction tn poverty is to be realised. Effective water resource development will maximise social and economic benefits whilst minimising environmental damage to Lake Tana and the Abbay over and avoiding detriment to local communities (McCartney ct al.. 2009).
Already there is considerable ongoing and planned water resource development in the Tana and Beles basins with the development of irrigation and hydropower schemes Increased agricultural production will come from planned irrigation development of about 123,000 ha in the I-akc Tina basin and about 116,000 ha in Beles catchment improving the regions food security and providing more employment in the agn industry sectors. The recent inauguration of the Tana- Beles hydropower scheme on 14,b May 2010 has already increased the countries energy production generating about 217 MAX’ of energy (installed capacity of 460 MW). Water ls supplied to the I ana Belts hydropower station from water released from I -ike Tana through a tunnel. Release from the Tana-Beles hydropower station is expected to supply enough water to luppon a significant area of irrigation in the Beles river catchment.
There are many, often competing, water demand and water user sectors in the Tana Beks basins, these include irrigated agnculrure, energy production, fisheries, navigation, env >ronmcnt, water supply and tourism all with different demands and requirements (SMEC.
^8)- I f accelerated economic growth in the Tana-Beles basin is to be realised then effective Panning, management and regulation of water resource developments is essential to present conflict between competing water users and sectors. Careful management of natural resources
n also optimise the benefits to all competing sectors Confbet can be reduced and benefits nuxm^cd if decision makers involve stakeholders in thru decision for allocation of water
Ourccs between competing needs (McCartney and Awulachrw. 2006).
p
"'Utnabie, well managed and regulated water resource development is equally important to ale * ^Ur,^lcr degradation of Lake Tana, its surrounding shoreline wetlands, and downstream
"°R ,EC Abb*y nvu Climate change is expected to exacerbate compeunoo between water
« the availability of water resources becomes more uncertain as the climate becomes pi ° Varuble As future water resources dwindle and water stress more likely, effective
,U "8 management of water resources ts even more essential otherwise future climaxbrdra/d 
Alwtn rflTatrr & harp
/ Jtajrww Xdr J9J l>na«<r JSmT
chingc is likch to hive a negative impact on regional growth, people’s livelihood
environs of Like Tina 
An integrated water resources development plan is presently being implemented by the Ethiopian Government Already there are plans to strengthening water resource planning regulation in the Tana-Beles growth corridor The World Bank arc currently binding 5
1 the
1
project to improve the planning, management and development of the Tana Belts bastm
a framework of economic, environmental and social sustainability. The objective is to devety enabling institutions and investments for integrated planning, management, and development the Tana-Beles basins to accelerate sustainable growth This will be achieved by
establishing/strengthening of institutions to bring about effective and coordinated planning, development, and management of water resources of the basins. The goal is to provide instruments and information tools for effective water plan rung/regulation, with investment in watershed development, sustainable agriculture and fisheries, wetland protection, and flood management, erosion and pollution control
S.2 Study objective
In context with the above dus study has developed a water balance model of Lake Tana incorporating the existing and planned future water resource developments in the Tana and adjacent Beles catchments The water balance model is used to assess the impact of major irrigation development on Lake Tana and downstream on the Abbay river
Oui study is focused on detcrmmmg the area of irrigation that can be developed sustainably ® the Ikies catchment from water releases from the Tana-Beles hydropower station avoiding detriment to Lake Tana but maintaining energy production Our study also examines whether reservoir storage is required on the Bcles river Io supplement Tana-Beles hydropower rdcascs dunng the short penod. of high demand (ce. 1 to 3 month,) when shortfalls in supplv for irrigation occur when lake levels are at or close io the minimum operational level, or if d* power station is not operated as planned or m accordance with recommended operating rules
The objective of this study is to exanune the operate rules for the 7 ana-Bries hvdropo^r faalny fo. dehvenng water for morion without unpactmg J jkc Tan. water levels or environmental release to the Abbay over but at the sime tune satisfying electnaty demand
IJnked to the operation rules an assessment i, made to determine the area of irrigation that c* be development in the Upper BeJes catchment before storage is required on the Bcles n«r. Any storage requirement on the Bele. nver would be used to meet ,hon (dry season) peno* of high (ungaoon) demand.
5.J Water resource deveioptnent in the Lake Tana and Bcka baains
Accelerated reg>onal development is planned m the Lake Tan. basm becaure of the relative
abundance of water resources. Presently, there u connderable ong0CIg M(J
wa ,„
resource development for a number of irrigation schemes on overs that feed uito Lake Tana Pus totals about 77.000 ha of ungable land Other propo5cd
pumped from Lake Tana Most of these ungauon schemes xre „ Megech Ofj Ocm()u pliUl
9H
I b F4 SfOl* Waler Resource* (2)
13 Shy 11E-W**
on the northern shoreline of I-ake lani Pumping will support approximately 46.000 ha of Option development. A summary of the proposed irrigation schemes in the Tina bum presented in fable 5-1.
Table 5-1: riauMu- »
Irrigauon Scheme
—
Irrigation
area (ha)
Dam
required
Hydropower
capacity
.m
Reserrotr
Volume
(Mm’)
Pumping of Lake
Tana
C/imokfed (2010)
kow
--------------------- « ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RdmP Programme for 20,000 ba net irrigation (under conatrucboo)
_________
7,100 Yes
None I n iv. -
Ribb
19,925
Yes None
233
No
MeRCch (Serbia] _
ENIDP Programme foi
5.254
80.000 ha net i
None
*
Yes
Mreech I'Robit)
____________ Lake Tana Sub-hatin Dama (various stages of development)
6.532
____
rrigation (feasibility acudy stage)*!
None J Yes
lemma
7.786
Yes
2
P3
No
Gtlgd Abbav 11 & 2i
11.508
Yes
5
563
No
Megech (Gravity)
16,660
No
Gumara 13.776
Yes
Yes
2 181
4 307
No
Other (NW,NE, SW)
(hher (X'W.NI . SVC 17.327 No
None
• 1 Yes
Nora (• |) L'ppcr R<-|<-v for about 60,000 ha and Ncgao Dam fnt ib«»uf 12,000 ha it also part nt the MCC0 ha programme.
Irrigation schemes are also planned in the Upper Belts (this study) and Lower Beks, (he former triying on releases from the Tana-Beles hydropower scheme as water is diverted to rhe Bclcs catchment from Lake Tana through a tunnel, Estimates of irrigable area m the Lower Beks are in the region of 85.CMX) ha with a planned dam at Dangur on the Main Belts over.
Hidropower is also an important development in the Tana-Beles basuu io supply clertnaty to
^c Ethiopian national grid to help meet the countries growing demand The Chara Chara weir 15 to operate Lake Tana. This weir regulates the lake outflow to supply a more constant duchuge downstream at the Tis Abbay hydropower plants The inter transfer of water from
Ue Tana to the Bdes catchment via a tunnel has now begun generating clectnatr and the ttinsfened water will be diverted for lmganon Descriptions of the Chara Chara weir.
Vdnipower stations at Tis Abbay, and the Tana-Bcles schemes, important tn the water balance modeling, foUow
13-Miy-n
(2j
99PrwwnA K/fate. •/ ErMta Al/artfp •/ Fxr c* Larjj
!.-*•<«• Ail /ne^« */
l^f
. I f Tk CMnbC Aru »rtr
Clun Chin «U rtguhtts»t« storage in Lake Tana by controlling ll5 outflow to
Xbbav nv«condom of the Chan-Chara war was completed tn May 1996 wd
tf£ubtn outflow to provide a more constant supply of water to the 11, Abb.y I and fl
31ow« plants located about 35 km downstream of the weir In.Ually the war onk 2
„dul nte, each with * apaaty of 70m’/s lite war was operated to regulated outfit t0
improve power production at Tis Abbay 1 which was built in 1964. Ftve new gates war cvnstruaed and become operational m January 2001 increasing the abdity to regulate lake Tft outflows- This improved regulauon ww accompanied by construction of a second power
moon at Tis Abbay 11 which also became operational m 2001
The Chara-Chara war regulates the lake storage over a 3 m range from 1.784 mas! to 1, 87 mas! where the active storage is about 9,100 Mm which is about 2.4 times the average annual outflow (McCartney et aL, 2009) 'rhe minimum operational level of the Chara-Chara war is currently 1,784 masL The war also has a spillway with a aesl (spill) level of 1,787 masL The leave storage of Lake Tana will decrease if the minimum operational level for the lake « changed from 1,784.0 to 1,784.75 mas! to safeguard navigation as recommended by SMEC (2008) At full supply level the total outflow through the gates is 490m /s (Salmi and Pietrangeli, 2006). Changes to the seasonal pattern of Lake Tana levels and its outflow caused by the operation of the Chara-Chara weir arc described below in Section 5 4.
7
5
3
5 J J Tu AMay J and Tu Abbay 11 bydroponrr plant!
The Tis Abbay I and II hydropower plants arc located 35 km south of Lake Tiru s outlet at Bahir Dar The Chara-Chara war is operated to regulate flow in the Abbay river to both c Abbay 1 and Tis Abbay 11 power plants Additional flow is added to the Abbay river frofn catchments between the wcu and the diversion at die Th Abbay hydropower plants fhe intervening catchment has an area of approximately 1,094 knr The main tributary H Andas’1 river with a catchment area to its gauge station of 573 km Water is diverted from the Abbi>
:
nver fust upstream of the Tis Issat Falls into a header channel and the natural head loss at d* falls is used to generate dectnrity. The hydropower plant at Tis Abbay 1 has an installed capaaty of 11 MW and Tis Abbay II has an installed capacity of 72 MW. Together the two plants produce about 434 GWh of electnaty per annum (SMEC, 2008)
L J. 3 Tana -Mu fydrvpcw hbentt
The Tana Bcles hydropower plant located in the Beles nver catchment is part of a mulu purpose 50 year development plan for the Tana Belts basins The Tana-BeJes hydropower scheme was inaugurated on 14* May 2010 and is now operational and involves the divert*00 0 water from lake Tana through an 11 km long and 7Jm dumetrr runnel mto the adjacent w*^ de fiaent BeJes catchment Hvdropowcr u generated by using the natural head difference of 31 Im across the escarpment between Lake Tana and the Bcles river Water from the turn*1 feeds a verticil penstock shaft connected to a powerhouse with 4 turbines with a total in*t*^ capaaty of 460 MW. The hydropower plant is operated with an average plant factor of 4# The average discharge through the tunnel is 77 m’/s with discharge peaking at 160 m’/s
lake levels.
L’b F4 SfOh Water (2)
100
I3-May41P -"V
The nm of the Tana-Belcs Scheme is to divert on avenge about 2.985 Mm' per annum 6am
j Jse Tana to the Belo nver basin through the Tana Beles hydropower plant generating 2JI0 G«h of electricity, assuming existing development conditions in the lake Tana basin and a nununutn operation level of 1,784.0 masL 1 lowever. dn enion of water to the Beles catchment ull) decline to 2,493 Mm' per annum and generate 1.90' GWh of electnaty once full water resource development in the Lake Tana basin is complete and if the minimum operation level o f | 784.75 masl for lake Tana is adopted as recommended by SMF.C (2008). With the commissioning of the Tana Beles hydropower protect the Tis Abbay I and Tis Abbiv II hydropower plants are expected to be used as standby generating plants
[Xschargr from the power plant is released through a 71 km tailrace tunnel to the Jehana ma 2 tributary of the Enat Beles nver. For several kilometres downstream of the tailrace, on the Jehana River, five weirs (with footbridges) have been constructed to dissipate energy of turbulent flows as mitigation against environmental damage (lahmeyer. 2000). Figure 5-1. This inter basin transfer of w ater from Lake Tana will transform the Bdcs nver from a seasonal to a perennial nver With the operation of the Tana-Beles hydropower scheme about 65-70* a of the natural outflow of Lake Tana will be diverted to the Beles catchment to generate dectncitv and supply waler downstream for irrigation developments. A summary of the division of flow between the Abbay and Beles rivers and hydropower generation for dif ferent operational rule* and minimum operation levels for Lake Tana are discussed further below.
r
level und outflow
ords of water levels of Lake Tana arc important for the operation ol the Tana Bdc.
d^pewer scheme and form the basis for the operational rules outlined b\ Salmi and * tr’ngdi (2006), adapted bv SMEC (2008) and reassessed in this study. Uke levels fiuctuate
ch,, ycM from yeaf yeaf
m Flgure s.2. me regulation of Lake Tana
>. C>Ur# Chata war for power production it Tis Abbiv I »nd II his m 1 n
C Pattern reducing its seasonality but causing mud, greater inter-annual v-anab^ lgUte 5'2) After 1995 rhe year on year fluctuations have -creased sigmficandv. Smet 19%
IkMay 11
(2)
101I rirru' ZArwwrjO.
Ij+nfm XtJr
AlwfiJ if ITtfrr d“
f>nr«<r JWkt
the hurst recorded lake Jo el of 41,784 4 masl occurred in June 2003 and rhe I
♦1.787.7 nud occurred in September 1998. Regulation by the Chara-Chara Unr h increased the draw down of lake levels during the dry season most notably m June 2003 disrupting shipping, causing the desiccation of the shoreline wetlands, and reduon " k. outflow to the Abbay river. Monthly and daily lake levels arc presented in Annex Cl
Figure 5-2: Lake Tana monthly lake levels from 1960 to 2006 Lake fowl at Bahir Oar
r and Gl
Clearly, lake I ana levels have been affected by the operation of the Chan-Chara war since « was constructed tn 19% The Chara-Chara war regulates the outflow from lake Tana supplying releases to the Tts Abbay I and II hydropower stations located about 35 km downstream of the lake outlet Regulauon of the outflow bv the Chan-Chara weir has resultni tn greater storage of water m lake Tana ntsing lake levels Higher lake levels with the regubonn of the outflow, and the increase m lake level drawdown during drier periods, is dearly sh*”"1 by the water level exceedance curves below (Figure 5-3).
Figure 5-3: Lake 1 ana level exceedance curve* for before and after the operation of
tfb I-4 SfOla Water RcM»urrc» (2)
!02
13.May-”Ln<te» natural cond*uon* oUlflow from ,jkr Tanj u dxrecrlv linked to ratnfaU with a .tgndkant
5rtSOn»l variation. Figure 5-4. After the construction of the To Abbay II hydropower tuuon ind increase tn number of gates at the Chua-Chara war. there is a more dramatic change tn the flow regime at the lake outlet, with an increase in flows in the dry season but a significant decrease in outflow dunng the wet season months
Figure 5-4: Natural and regulated lake outflow for Th Abbay power stations
-------in«awiaw»w (1174.1 nsi — — Afwow»0w»**» im-20W| ■ •
goovaor
The mean monthly lake levels for the penod poor to the construction of the Chin-Chin weir and after its operation to the present day are presented in (Figure 5-5). Rrstncoons at the outlet of Lake Tina means the like nscs slowly to a maximum at the end of the wet season and
recedes slowly to its minimum discharge dunng the drv season The lake level is lowest at the end of the drv season, in June, and reaches a maximum m October-November after the rams. lypical average annual fluctuations before 1996 were about 1.5 m trocn 1,785.4 to 1,786.9 masL
Average annual fluctuation after 1995 increased to about 1.7 m from 1,785.4 to 1,787.1 masL Fhe long term average lake levels before and after the operation of the Chara-Chara war arc Ubidated bdow in Table 5-2.
a,cr
(2J
tV.May-11
103Fmt*'
* i-hr<ta Mwfn 9fV~^rr^ I: erg
isiafut Vi rfW O'*9#
Table 5-2: Long term average Lake Tana water levels before and after operation of the
Chara-Chara weir (1996)
Month
Lake level (pre 1996)
(mad)
Lake level (post 1996)
(mail)
-
1786.10
178636
Feb
178593
1786.16
Maj
1785.75
P85 94
.Afr_
1785.57
1785.69
May
1785.42
178549
Jun
178536
1785 40
1785A4
1785.68
Aug
178638
1786 47
_
P 86.86
1787.04
Oa
1786 78
1787.05
Nov
T 86.53
1786 87
Dec
178629
1786.62
Mean
1786.05
Max
178623
1786.86
1787.05
Min
1785.36
1785.40
5.5 Operation Hukt hr Lake Tut
Operanonil rules arc used ■<> comrol the waler levels m l jk(. Tlnj re)(af<;j (Q Abba'
River, and diversion of water from the like to the idj.cen. Ikle, catchment The arm of opennon rules » to maarrnrse the benefits to the different, often conflicting water user st<^
uithout impacting adversely on the environment. The rule, attempt ,o m„inu f ljlk
,
e storage «'
rhe end of the wet season as . buffer for the comtng dry year Thu B achieved by preventing spilbge over the Char. Chara wen but should be done to opnmrae dcctnc.ty generation.
(’b 1‘4 SXJlaUiicr Rc^n/ncn f2)
frrtm)without exacerbating flooding dong the lake shoreline or without restricting flow, to the Abbiv over so that environmental requirements are not met
. - z /^/ operational
- Xafiw and Pittranfili (2006)
T,
J
fhe operation rules outlined by the Lahmeyer study (2000) for diversions to the Tina Bdes hydropower station were updated by Salim and Pietrangeli (2006) There art 4 turbines, under normal opera Don there will be 1. 2, 3 or 4 turbines in operation. The fourth turbine is only used u a spare, during maintenance, or is used as an additional turbine when lake levels arc high when the Chara-Chara weir is about to spiH At very low lake levels diversion of water to the turbines may be stopped to prevent the lake’s water level falling below the minimum operational level causing difficulties with lake navigation and impacting on the environment. Salmi and Pietrangeli (2006) adopted a minimum level for Lake Tana of 1,784 0 masL
The operating rules adopted in the design report of Salim and Pietrangeli (2006) are simple. A minimum operational level of 1,784 0 masl is adopted and an average turbine discharge of 77mVs was assumed for a wide range of lake levels (i.e. >1,784 3 but <1,787.0 masl). The discharge from the turbines are increased to 160 m Vs al high lake level (Le. >1,787.0 masl) but opcraoons are stopped at low lake levels The regulated outflow to the Ab bay over is fixed at 17
m’/s.
f.f-2 Lake operational rule - J'A/EC (2008)
Similar operational rules were suggested by the SMEC (2008) study where a minimum operational level of 1,784.75 masl is recommended bur also uses an avenge turbine discharge of " 7m /s with discharge from the turbines increasing to l60mVs at high lake level to prevent spillage over the Chara-Chara weir The SMEC study (2008) suggests the regulated outflow from to the Abbay river could be fixed for some months to 10 m /s (Le March to June) with higher flows in other months. SMEC (2008) recommended a higher minimum operanon level of 1,784 5 masl to prevent serious navigation problems by shipping on I-akc Tana, which most notably occurred in 2003 The operational rules are as follows (SMEC 2008):
1 Minimum operating level of lake Tana to be 1,784.75 masl,
2 Average of 77m'/s to be released through the Belts power plant over a wide range of lake levels,
3. Discharges will be increased to 160 mVs at high lake levels, and
*3 Discharges will be stopped when ever the lake level declines to 1,784,75 masl.
Cumpinson of simulation results between the operation rules of Salini and Pietrangeli (2006) *nd of SMEC (for a minimum operaoon level of 1,784 0 mwl) shows dectnoty production “’creased by more than 10% and spillage over the Chara-Chara weir was reduced by almost
’ <SMEC, 2008) The SMEC operation rule curves based on a minimum operation level of * presented on Figure 5-6.
7
s
Ubu.
lKMar-H
,,CT Resource, (2)
105trim K^afC. E&npt*. MlWtH pf IT4ft c* Extfp
Elb*f*a X«i /^4^ a*J Drxfjft Pn^t
Figure 5-6: Operational rule using minimum lake level of 1784.0 masl SMC operational rule Lake Tana (min 1784 masl)
WHO
17173
17170
17M3
17HD
17153
1715 0
1714$
1714 0
(SMEC, 2O0gj
n»>
r 'b *n
■ ISC
■tn He
"M-ljc
■10
■4040
040
■0
lun
Oct Nov Dee Jan 7eb Mir *Pr ***
rhe lower curves are simply shifted up io produce operational rules for the higher inmimun)
7
operational level of 1,9 5.75 masl as recommended, this curve is recreated on Figure 5- .
I’he rules curves will be affected by the levels of future water resource development tn the Tana basin in particular irrigation schemes using storage on rivers that inflow into the lake .At lake levels decline with the development of major irrigation schemes tn the Lake J ana bum the allowable dnenwm of water to the Belcs catchment is reduced
Figure 5-7: Operation rule using minimum LaIce level® of 1784.75 mad (SMEC,
SMC operational rule for Lake Tana (min 1784.75 masl)
Ftow
«*»«•
tfjl 'I
17U00
i7i7 n
171730
1717.1$
a
l20^C
1717 00
17M 75
*
•0
17MS0
17MJS
40
PM 00
1715 75
171S5O
1715 H
I 715 00
1714 75
l’b JM SrOU * ^r**r,,rc< * ®yv
Mjmr/ry
(** fi/frr^'
l ^fu> N* *"/Pw*’y P^ift/
J f j !^ih opwtioxti/rule ■ [ lai-rw- G/Rf) (2010)
fn this study the S.MEC (2008) lake operational rule curves w [units of flow releases adjusted accounting for change w sV “
a mUKd Jr<i threshold
planned htrure water resource developments in rhe J jk^raw b lake levels post development adjustments have
ursgatwn in to the Belts river without further detnmenr to lak uZ, minimum maintenance flows in the Abbaj over downjrrM '
°f
fn *
“ efcftna,> prodwmon. and
Hafaow - GIRD operational ru!r w presented below m FicT '/ outfl<** Ihe modified
rhe recommended SMEC (2008) rule
RWT i’8, ind hai ’ 5,™hr pattern to
The rationale behind rhe Flakrow GIRD operational rule is tn provide more lake storage by rhe end of rhe wci season compared io other rule*, raising lake levels, and allowing greater releases from January tn April when irrigation demand in the Upper Belts command area ift highest and when there is greatest need for electricity as energy demands arc high and typically there is a shortage in national supply. This is achieved by the continued regulation ar Chara- Chara weir, and by building more lake storage bv releasing less water to the Tana- Bclc» sdiexnc compared to the recommended SMEC (2008) operational rule during (he wet season from Juh tn September providing a greater buffer for the coming year. Higher active lake storage allows mate water to be released for longer in the following dry season from January to April when irrigation demands arc at their highest. When modifying the operation rules curves careful consideration has been made tn optimise releases for irrigation and electricity production, but without restricting flows to the Abbay river so that environmental requirements ire not met nor exacerbating flooding along the lake shoreline or, al lake minima, dcsiccanon of shoreline
wetlands.
Figure 5-8: Hale row — GIRD operation rule using minimum Lake levels of 1784.75 mail
IJ-AUy-11
10?I tJm Pr^r-je. RfMt dEtiufn. Mtmirr) y'U~urr c7 llwrp
Ltfnfut Xiir I'r&SM tat Pra*rft Pnmt
5.6 Regulated outflow to Abbay river
The regulation of the like outflow flow was conceived to supply flow downstream f
electricity production at the Tis Abbay 1 and Tis Abba)' 11 hydropower plants On*. •
Chan-Chara weir attempts to avoid uncontrolled spillage over the weir’s spillway tn
maximise the lake storage by the end of the wet seasons for electricity production
following year. Salim and Pietrangeli (2006) assumed a constant regulated flow of 17
additional flow on the Abbay coming from unregulated flow during higher lake Icveh g,
season. SMEC (2008) preferred to avoid uncontrolled spdlagc and by storing more lakeu-a-J^
this could be released as regulated flows through out the year SMEC (2008) adopted i
minimum flow of 10 m’/» fie. 27 Mm’) from March to June and higher flows m other Wi
In this study the regulated releases to the Abbay nver arc based on a study by Bcllicr et il (1997) and an environmental impact assessment (ELA) conducted before the Chara-Chan u-e was constructed which recommended that flows in the reach with the Tis Issat Falls should lit in the range 10 - 60 nP/s. This is discussed further below. Regulated outflow recommended br McCartney et al (2009) based on a more ecological approach using the Desktop Reserve Model (DRM) was also tested.
5- 7 Approach to water balance m odelhng
The water balance model for the Like Tana-Belw Basin has been developed in WEAP software. Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) software was developed by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) in Boston USA. WEAP is distinguished by its integrated »ppmid> t<> simulating water systems and by its policy onentauon. Operating on the basic principle ol” witer balance accounting, WEAP is applicable to single sub-basins or complex river system* (Yates ci al, 2004)
The WEAP model essentially performs a mass balance of flow sequentially down a over spt» making allowance for abstracuons and inflows Risers are divided into multi part reaches a order to simulation a over system A reach boundary is determined by points in the river wh'* there is a change ui flow as a consequence of a confluence with a tributary, or an abstraction return flow, or where there is a dam or a flow gauging structure (Yates el al, 2004)
Typically, the WEAP model is applied by configuring the system to simulate * rrceoi year, for which the water availability and demands can be confidently determined- I^c m< then used io simulate alternative scenarios (lc., reasonable futures based on “what if
v>
“baseli^
propositions) io assess the impact of different development and management options
• The
rmxlel optimizes water use tn the catchment using an iterative Linear Programming algonth whose objective is to maximize the water delivered to demand sites, according to a scC U" defined p nori ties (Yates el aL. 2004)
In this study the WEAP model is first used to investigate the existing water resource development of the Lake Tana basin and the impact of current water use on lake levels The model is then used to assess the impact of fiirure changes in water demand and water use future water resource development. Hus b done first through calibrating the model to the histone nver flows as the initial input to the model, then, more importantly, to the changed
Ub F4 Sd)1s Water Rrsnurrcs (2)
108
i>M*rbkc le%-els over time Subsequently, water demands are vaned with time depending on which
sccnario is being tested. The changes in lake level under these scenario conditions arc compared
with those of the 'base’ or existing condition of today.
The WEAP model is a dynamic, time senes model capable of assessing changes in umc as the
I jkc Tana basins develops. The model is used to examine the impacts on lake levels, outflows
to the Abbay over and releases for power production caused by future water resource
development. The water resource assessment examines the effects of operational rules of lake
Tana on releases to the Bdes catchment for electricity production and irrigation development,
and the implications for navigation oo lake Tana, and lake releases downstream to maintain environmental flow requirements along the Abbay nver.
The aim is to examine the operation rules for the Tana-Bdcs hydropower for delivering water
for irrigation whilst satisfying power generation but without reducing the lake levels of lake
Tana below a set minimum, and by meeting the minimum environmental flows release to the
Abbay nver.
3.8 Wafer bihmcc mode! of Lake Tana using WEAP software
A WEAP model was built for the purpose of estimating the water balance of the Lake Tana
Basin and its catchment The water balance model builds on the SNfEC (2008) study which has
made recommendations for the operation of the Lake Tana, the Tana-Beles hydropower
scheme, and regulation of the Chara-Chara wear. The model was used to evaluate the water
resources impact of specific devdopment interventions such as new’ irrigation and hydropower development based on different lake operation rules.
The first modelling step was to develop the upper catchment component which includes
rainfall^ evaporation and cv apo transpiration, leading to river flows. To accomplish this, monthly estimates of rainfall and evapotranspiration (ET ) throughout the I-ake Tana Basin were
O
dc\eloped from the existing meteorological network and records. From these are developed
estimates of nver flows, net evaporation from lakes and wetlands, crop water demands for
LrnKabon areas, evapotranspiration from natural vegrution, etc. A spatially generalised model of
monthly rainfall and evapotranspiration is generated through application of a geostatistical
mtcrpolation, as described below.
1 Spatially averaged or areal rainfall is generated through application of a geostatistical ^terpolation (Le. co-knging) from observed point monthly rainfall available from 2 r rain gauges tn and around (he Tana-BeJcs catchment
2- Spatially averaged temperature is generated also through application of a geos tans ocaT interpobuon using co-knging Areal temperature is used in the esumanon of ET using
O
•he Thonithwaite method, and adjusted so that this ET u equivalent to the EX,
O
«tunated uslng the Penman-Montuth equation at climate stations in the Tana Bdes
has tn.
'-1»F
♦Sot
tJ-Msr-H
109l&iH RfH 9t Mmsfn
I :h^n Xii /*q(uo^ L>^t^f Purr. J
E»*p
3. Like evaporation is aunuted using Thomthwaitc method usuir s temperature. Net evaporation uis calculated by subtracting for cafh >'r'T*d
0 1’
rainfall estimated to have fallen over Lake Tana Net lake evapor^^"’ "' input to the alter balance model
U uted M an
Deoils of the application of a 'gcostidsoair interpolation using co-krigmg to determine monthly area) rainfall and evaporation, and their use in rainfall runoff models to generate catchment flows, and net lake evaporation arc desenbed below.
£1 f zhra/ nmfall m krtfq
Spatially averaged or areal rainfall is generated through application of a geostatisncal* interpolation (i.e spatial statistics) as described in Section 2.8. Arc-GlS based co kngingwis employed to establish rainfall isohyet maps. 'Hie monthly gndded surfaces of rainfall for the Tana-Beks catchment were produced at a resolution of 90 m from 1980 to 2006. Areal rainE
:
7
was extractcd from each monthly gndded surface for each of the I river sub-catchment is wd as for the irrigation project areas. Figure 2-13 shows the annual average rainfall calculated usaw co kriging techniques for the Lake Tana-Beks basin and Figure 2-14 for the L’pper Beles command area Monthly areal rainfall for each river sub’Catchment is given tn Annex H2
*** Arral tvapofrniuptrvtto*
RAINRUN> ^
e
TICC cvlPo<rin*pkatioti (ETO) is used in the rain fall-runoff models (ic.
(ET) rm u° CiUnJltC “l^ows Io Lake I ana. 7hc reference crop evapotranspiration
crop
' CV2potnnsPlndon a standardized vegetated surface or reference
(te cron h l n lnttCOCC IUr^acc ,s 1
f
 ^>P° heucaJ grass surface with specific characters tin
XX x r— °f ° a> ^‘-‘ ‘-'-rr -
n
defiamt of »,ler
h-umetw or
onmnol
K™'”"8, com
el ,hadlnS ,hc P')Und ’nd “
P*« y 
. 
C can be determined either by direct measurement using1 m wwg d.mjiolog^ d.ta, the latter method. vwv from
1”^ ■dtt-n.lap, „ e.»pfa eombmaaeat
«, p „„d
h
For the water balance modelling the ETO was eaumated firstly using the I>Cn^
Monteith
equation at 6 climate stations measuring temperature, wind speed, sunshine
Class I). However, ihc distribution of climate stauons is noi sufficient to estimate over sub-catchmenii. Instead the ET.. was estimated using the rhornthwait applk ® only requires temperature Spatially averaged temperature was generated
a 'gcostaustical* interpolation using co-kriging and observed temperature at
1 00
hum>dj<y (ix.
f or al)
s taD°nS
^ <ing
through the Tana-Beks catchment Areal temperature was used in the esama csuniated
the Thomthwaite method, and adjusted so that this El o was equnaknt to the
□sing the Penman-Monteith equation at class 1 climate stations in the 1 ana B corrected the areal ET for each sub-catchment was extracted and used as an input t
QfiCC
O
rainfall runoff model* (Annex HZ).
Lib F4 SfOla Watrr Rewurco X
110
13-NUy11s
i
«r** ** ***’
of U’jftr e*'
1 Estimates of monthly inflows for gauged or ungauged river catchments are required as inputs to
r hc water resources model over the 26 year historical period from 1980 to 2006 RAINRUN
run fall runoff models (Van dcr Wcert, 1994 and 1996) are used to produce a time scries of
flow data RAINRUN was proved by SMEC (2008) study to perform weO for estimating
mflows to I Jike Tana compared to other models (i.c. WATBAL). The RAINRUN rainfall
nmoff model is a lumped model using areal rainfall calculation using co-kngmg techniques and
potential evapotranspiration estimated from the empirical relationships with temperature rather
than from meteorological data. RA1NRUN model differentiates between forest and non forest
cover types. The model structure is schematically shown in figure below in Figure 5-9
The RAINRUN rain fall-runoff model parameter sets arc found using a semi-automatic
calibration procedure which is then repeated manually through trail and error to determine
□primal parameters These parameters include:
• Forest fraction (estimated from land use maps);
• Surface runoff fraction of rainfall for non-forest soil cover.
• Tension water reservoir capacity (mm);
• Vegetation factor of non-forest relating potential evapotranspiration to ET«;
• Upper zone free water reservoir capacity (mm),
• Recession coefficient free water reservoir; and
• Recession coefficient groundwater reservoir.
Further details of the model parameterisation and calibration procedure are given below in Section 5.9.
Figure 5-9: Schematic of RAINRUN rainfall runoff mode)
evaporation is estimated using Thornthv«i(c method »nd compared with oipo
1
'T""'" «*. te Pcnman-Momdth metod .dop.«l « 
bdo ; (Tibfc
SWFt <»* "* 
” M;„,IWI»»*>. u. T- ~
“
t **«d
• ” u*tng the,> sp,_______ atially ave„........... raged____________________ temperature was gen* _ ,„OT.ed to"gh .ppb=°~ ol• in.erpohoon using co-kriging .nd observed temperature .< climate strno
IJMiytl
’"'“'•••ou.ewra
111/■•in' IWnftr sfErirfw. »- ITwr- f“ Earp
l^xfut A'«* /"g*** <■/ P-v«r /‘nr.r
surrounding the Ute. Net evaporation was calculated by subtracting for each rainfall estimated to have fallen over Lake Tana. Net lake evaporation is used *** water balance model and is tabulated below in Table 5-4.
"
using Penmnn-Monteith
and
i
Method
J-
Fed
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Z II
Annual
t PM (nun)
138
149
182
177
164
137
94
94
136
156
140
131
1697
T (mm)
133
139
164
175
162
133
117
123
133
140
131
123
. t Eittutn (rim SMKC study <20081
3
Tana
Location
Jan
Fed
Mat
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Lake Tans
121.4
1183
1284
120.9
69.0
-57.0
224 6
-2100
5.8 5 Tons.tmxndfaler lnlfra,iKIU
day layer below the hk makin
" d «*• T«. i. 
.. 
„ „o
c
unhkely (SMEC 2008) J iddi * 
n
surrounding auuifrrx an/j
lake No evidence of rruxtn
o
fkL
I-a *c rana characterised by an 80 m thxi rnoxcincnt of water from any underlying aquifer
B 1 *ow *lv<hauhc gradient between the lake and the “ to ’’R’uficanr lateral leakage into or out of the
(2005). In the VCEZP model the v ' W*tCr W'^' *djacent aquifers in a study by Kebede ct d underlying aquifer is considered a >n^ **<eril leakage into and from the lake into the
f.t.6 Ralbynretn.im<r)
The first bathymetric survey of Lake Tana was undertaken in 1937 by Morandini (1940) bu' more recently this was repeated by Pietrangeli (1990) in 1987 during the Tana-Bdes
study Thu bathymetric survey showed that the lake is stable and regular bottom lake w>«h bed slope (ranging from 0.01% to 0.09%), with the Lake deepest pan of the lake occurring *' elevation of 1.772 masl. some 14 m below the average water level of 1.786 mask The natu^ outflow sill level of the lake before the construction of die Chara-Chari weir was L785
The sill level of the present Chara-Chara weir is 1 m lower at 1,784 mas! because of sedimcntanon However, it is important to consider that only the 'active storage” above thr ' level of the Chara-Chara weir (1,784 masl) u important is important tn the water balance m‘ J as storage below this level represents “dead storage". More recently. Essayas (2007) cond<*'f a bathymetric survey of Lake Tana using sonar and GPS but was done as a validation cxerO^ to assess different methods This study uses the elevation area and elevation-storage relationships prepared for Lake Tana by Pietrangeli study (1990) to represent the lake in «** t water balance model as a reservoir. The elevation-area-storage relationships used in (hr water balance model are represented in the following equations:
Cb F4SfO!a Mater Resource* (2)
112
13 Mar ”Where;
A= 46,0282 H -79.18234
H= 0.02173 A + 1,7203
A= 0 015337 V > 2,932 49
V=3,001 H - 5353 836
11=0 00033 V+ 1.784 01
V=65.2018 A - 191303.625
2
A = lake area (km )
H = elevation (mas!)
7
V = volume of the lake above l 84 mail (Mm')
57 Mode! set up
The WEAP model is the actual water balance component. It includes the over flows, abstractions from those rivers, other forms of losses such as evaporation and evapotranspiration and seepage from rivers mto groundwater, and a representation of Lake Tana. The schematisation of the WEAP model of Lake Tina is presided on Errori Not a valid bookmark self-reference. The VCEAP model setup is described below
5.9A Lab Tana
Lake Tana is part of die model which can change in level. volume and area as it gains water from over flows and rainfall and loses water through abstractions, evaporation. seepage and outflows Lake Tana forms the basis of the calibration and of the assessment of impacts from changes in water use in the Lake Tana Basin as a result of lmgaoon and hydropower. Lake Tana u modelled as a reservoir with bathymetry of Lake Tana provided from Pietrangeh (1990). The relationship between elevation and volume is defined in the reservoir unit as shown m Table
^*5. In the reservoir urut the initial storage of Lake Tana is set a 29,159.8 Mm' and the total capacity of the lake storage is set at a volume of 33,858 5 Mm The net open water evaporation °l Lake I ma is calculated using lake evaporation, estimated using the Thocnthwaite method,
areal rainfall interpolated from observed point ra tn fall data (Annex 11). The seasonal ananon of areal rainfall and net lake evaporation are shown in Table 5-6.
5X* hr** CM^C
reservoir unit elevation storage relationship
Likerimtioo (bmO
Volume (Mm’)
1.772
0
1,773
119
1.774
709
1,775
1903
1.776
3,497
l—
5353
1.778
7.425
1.779
9.688
1.780
12,120
1.781
14,695
1.782
17,401
1,783
20,227
1.784
23.147
1.785
26.135
1.786
29,175
1,787
32^73
1,788
55,444
1.789
38.686
1,790
42,001
Ub !‘4 SfOli U'jfrr JUwmfcei (2)
114iAl/wen c* E«r*p
I **vt Xur .’np2»* ™ «'*nr*<» Nnt
Tabk M:1 >Wr Tina reservoir unit rainfall and net evaporation
Moo th
Rainfall
(—)
tNet like Evap.
(mtn) Penman Monteith
Net lake Evap.
(mm)
(Thom th waite)
Ian
S3
137
Feb
S3
149
139
Mu
13.7
121
112
Apo)
273
94
99
Mas
711
33
39
lune
170.7
• 121
138
|uhr
3517
-220
-178 1
Al
3215
-196
199 '
1644
13
• 18
Oct
76.9
90
101
Nov
201
94
63
Dec
t cwir r»
6.0
131
——...si
9 92
S.9J
CAra-f./uru arrr
10
The water balance model simulate, the regulation of Lake Tana outflow by rhe Chan-O * uar avoiding unnecessary wet season spillage in an attempt to maximise storage in l-*^c at the end of the wet season as a buffer for coming dry years, but releasing enough w»ter downstream to satisfy the environmental requirements along the Abbay over The outflow from the lake outlet u modelled using a minimum flow requirement (MFR)- Before the operation of the Chara-Chara weu (Le. natural lake conditions) the MFR uses monthly term average outflows (Annex Jt), after the opera ton of Chara-Chara war (i.e. w»th bke regulation) the MIK uses monthly values recommended to meet environmental release 7?™™ °n the Abb,y m'“ 11 T“ wl,erfalJ 0 lumphrey ct aL. 1997. Briber et al.
7) The observed lake outflow, gauged at Bahir Dir are given in Annex JZ
Modelled flow, upstream of the Tu I..., M „c com d ,o ,hc cnvlfonment*l requirementinudmed by McCartney e. d (2009. 2010) Zwxter balance model uses the recommended minimum operation level of 1,784.75 ma>1 m „rd„ fo „fc ird ^oo" <>" lake Tana and Io mininuse environmental unpaa,
Lab Tan itflm - rmtfallmoff
The WRAP model for 1 jkr Tana Bum i* m
catchments These represent the streams for eaZf^ 72 7'*^*’“ 
.
f
confluence with s larger scream or over gauge eventual £ 
' mcn,S at P°Ul1 ° *.
flo
mro the lake. Esnnu.es of monthly flowTaTdJ idl
,he mjul nvcn th”
locatjons, are required as inputs to the water rcsources^d
gaugcd °f
from 1980 to 2006 Th» penod .. comadent w> „ 
lh
co-knging techniques (Annex Hl); poor to this period too 
° V” 26 >W h“'°n< P7,
Cl1CUht*°" 7»rr
available to have confidence tn rainfall estimate. RAINRI txi ° Icrvtt,on 11 rlin
VCeert. J 994 and 1996) are used to producbe
Iflnr 1 trtrszs
• 
. 
r> “,f*U-ninoff models (V»n ^cf 1 time senes of rrver flow data The RAlNRl^
l’b F4 S<Cifa Water Rr* turret (2)
116
IJW”rainfall runoff model is a lumped model using potential evapotranspiration estimated from the ^punc-d relationships with temperature rather than from meteomlogril data Anne* HZ
The RAINRUN rain fall-runoff model parameter sets are found using a scnu-iuiomjoc calibration procedure which is then repeated manually through trail and error to dctermmc optimal parameters Observed flow data far 5 gauged carchments ire used to calibrate the ramfall runoff model parameters, these include (he Megech. Ribb, Gumara. Koga and Gdgrl Abbay rivers (Annex J2) Best fit parameters and objective functions are used to axj calibration of model parameters. Table 5-9 Monthly flow is simulated far the remaining gauged and ungauged catchment using these calibrated parameter parameters (Table 5-7 and Table >8). The Statistical measures R and R between observed and simulate monthly flow for the $ gauge
:
catchments are tabulated in 'Fable 5-9 The monthly modelled flows far each sub-catchment are given m Annex KI The WEAP model is run at a monthly time step
Table 5-7: RAINR1FN parameters for gauge and ungauged mbcatchmeof (SC 1-9)
River tub
catchment
(SC)
West
Tana
Drima
Upper
Megech
Lower
Megech
Gum am
Giro
Upper
Ribb
Ribb («•««*)
Lower
Ribb
SC No
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Gauged
No
No
Yea
No
No
No
No
Yea
No
Factor
0.30
0.30
030
030
0.30
0.90
090
0.90
0.30
SROI
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.20
0.20
020
0.05
Kc
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.15
1.15
1.15
0.50
L’ZTW
160 160
160
160
160 50
50
50
160
L'ZFW
20 20
20
20
20
40
40
* 20
KI
0.60 0.60
0.60
0.60
0.60 035
035
035
060
K2
030 1 030
030
0.30
030 0.15
0.15
0.15
030
r*hl* 5-8: RAINRL’N parameters for gauge and ungauged ■ubcatchmentt (SC 10-17)
River tub
catchment
Upper
Gum era
Gum era (r» R )
uc
Lower
Gum era
Geldan
Koga
Jemm.
Upper
Gilgel
Abbay
Lower
Gilgel
.SC No.
10
11
12
13
14
15 16
17
^uged
Factor
No
Yea
No
No
No
No Yea
No
0.50
0.50
0 50
0.60
0.60
0.10
0.10
0.10
SROI
Kc
Jim
0.05
0.05
0.05
020
0.20
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.70
0.70
0.60
0.60
0.60
55
55
55
110
110
120
120
120
JiZFW
20
20
20
40
40
40
40
40
0.45
0 45
0.45
035
055
0.50
030
030
JC2
0.25
.
0.25
025
0.60
060
0.10
0.10
Olio
|J-Mm II
’*<Hirers ,(2)
1171 
y Dtfu .U/trtfp y IVr C* £«np
J'JXwf Ail .’np^re /•/ /Vnfr /SwJ
TiNc 5-9: Sotittic metsurci between observed and
simulated monthly (J^.
Rivet
Correlation
coefficient
w
Coefficient of
determination
.Mrgcch
0.95
0.92
Gumara
0.92
0.85
R»bb
0.88
0.78
__________
0.85
0.73
I GJpriAbtMv
0.95
0.90
f.9.4 Imgi&« and Vdirr n/pph demand nta
This uiter balance model also considers all existing and planned irrigation schemes in the Lw Tina Bism The monthly water demands for all irrigation schemes, existing and planned, ire tabulated in Table >10 'rhe irrigation demands arc based on those presented in previous studies including the Abbay Master plan (BCEOM. 1999) and those requirements presented z the SMEC (2008) study. Irrigioon schemes represented tn the WRAP model are set as dercid or abstriction units Demand units that represent gravity irrigation schemes abstract witer la Lmpnon directly from a storage reservoir, whereas for the pump schemes demand units abstract water for irrigation directly from Lake Tana The storage capacities for dams planned for the gravity irrigation schemes arc provided in Table 5-11. No operational rules uck sc their reservoirs' operation The assumed net evaporation and seepage for cadi dam arc tabulated in Table 5-12 The monthly net evaporation for each reservoir is given tn Arme
Dams provide water for irrigation and flood protection but only the Mcgcch dam P^ waier supply. The WEAP model considers water supply for Gondcr town providing^ about 265 Mm’ per month; a total of 31.5 Mm’ per annum. Thr future demand for ’ water supply will be supplied from the Mcgcch reservoir (BCEOM, 1999) rhe deman representing ihe Gender town water abstracts water directly from the Mcgcch resets
l*b P4 SfOli Waler Rewurrei (2)
1IK
iJ-Mr”capacity of exi.ting and planned reaervoin in Tana bawn
Storage capacity
jUnr^
fobb_ _ -----------
Gum**1
Jemma________
GikdAbbmr
Table 5-12 Net Evaporation and seepage for retervotri
Initial Storage
Momh
Megech
Rabb
Gumara
_
Jemma
Gilgel Abbrr
Net
crap.
(mtn)
Seep
(mm)
Net
trap.
(mm)
Seep
Net
evap.
(mm)
Seep
(mm)
________
Net evap. (mmh
________
Seep
(tnm)
Net
erap. (mm)
Seep jmmj
Net
trap,
(mm)
Seep 2mm2
Ian
113
028 116 025 118
0.57
136 024
117
j.---------- Feb
054
145
0.28
03
119
027
124
027 126
06
137 025
124
0.56
March
166
037
125
033
135
033
1M|
0.71
132 03
132
066
April
138
035
106
03!
116 035
116
0.75
84 032
109
0.71
Mat
90
033
69
032
71 033
34
0.7
•13
029
5
0.66
June
•55
0.26
•53
02?
-47
028
-115
037
-158
024
-170
034
Jub
-231
02
-291
022
-284
0.25 -298
05
•309
021
-320
0.47
-IS
-216
021
-247
023 253
0.25
-228
0.53
•218
0.22
261
03
JS£
48
027
-55
0.27
•72
02?
-76
037
-too
024
134
0.54
Oct
54
029
42
0.28
39
029 8
061
■36
025
-14
037
.Nov
D«
J
119
028
88
0.26
77
0.26
84
056
57
024
73
033
127
026
98
026
100
024
106
033
126
0.22
102
03
The water balance model also includes for the inter the adjacent Beles catchment incorporating lake water through the tunnel to the Beles catchment unit. However, satisfying this demand is restnet incorporating operating rules based on the preceding
 from LakeTuu 10
fa ofwltefd^enaon of Lake Tana
represented as • <knund
trough the tunnel) and by
^trf m Lake j
At very high lake levels a maximum monthly floW ° . open_ ntm60mg le‘/ve*«li0'0attd'(rtt,t4t'rUA°'DeS)bU'’'
low lake levels when water level is at or close to the ’™°“n
q
Evened In the WEAP model the PrevTSValue function w month simulated lake level and then restrict flow refers
SMF.C (2008) operation rules have been discussed in^ lllf ‘e operation rule curves optimising releases for
c ’lchment; these will be referred to as the Haleru'* °Pe
*t the previous
rules currev
^fxd
m the Bd«
hc1ice forth.
IJAGr 11
rcrK«uufr„pj
119’
; >**•**.
r !JXwa.
Ta* (** / »rp
f jfefw Xat W fSr«<» N*f
Srfxtt fmn&i hru
Pnontr* ixr required within irrigation, ind water supply demand, as well as fOr flow requirement unfit. Ihc model uses these pnonty levels when allocating
demand Mtetw it vkiD deliver water to all the level 1 nnontv sites and if ■»».-
f
«. 
.. 
'
■ rcfnjuns tn the
mW, it uiD then dclnvr water to the remaining pnontv levels according to availabtl
ascending numerical order Pnontx^s are important during a period of water shortage demand* from higher priorities arc satisfied before lower pnormes arc considered If
are the same, shortages will be equally shared, 
Within a given unit a pnonty level it given a value of either 1 or 2 The priority levels sdoptc tn the 1-akr Tana WEAP model ire summarised tn Table 5-13. Ixvel 1 is the highest dermne pnonry for water in the system and is assigned to municipal users i c. water supply sites Ths means that WEAP will try to satisfy all the demands at this level before any other level of pnonry demand Imgation demands arc also assigned pnonty levels of 1 A pnonty level of la also assigned to satisfy releases for clcctncity generation through the inter-basin transfer of water from lake Tana to Belri nver. Releases from Lake Tana to the Abbay river to meet dx environmental flow requirements is also given a priority of 1. Pnonty level of 2 is assigned fnt Lake Tana
Table 5-13: Priorm level for Lake Tana WEAP Model
Demand tvpe
P na’riB
Priorin level
Water Supply
1
Imgauon schemes (Graving
1
Imganon scheme* (Pump)
1
Inter haun transfer of Tiru Basin scheme
I
Minimum Abbai flow requirement flake out flow i
1
lake Tana
2
<=^^Oo f^
00 ler/l^aCfAfoife/
'X’EAP^ glUS^ m" fl°U‘ “ L°kC T,nJ B*'“1 Provldcs « mMn* b>’ utucl* lhe
ku mC/
b* embraced How records in the Tana-BeJes basins are of
<palin because of the difficuln in applying stage discharge relationships duough n|Q'- “ mefl U1lh fn°bdC Ud‘ **««« of stage datum changes (SMEC, 2008). UfKCitunty
rJTT fCCOfdl
confident calibration very difficult. However, T*°a.
seasons] and in ter-annual level variations within it, make excellent indieaf015 ‘
1 u * (he ^drology of the catchments All calibrations and all assessments of furor* *’,,c tM tccn>no’ arc therefore done to lake levels. The main purpose of the cab brao°n
' *** Of lhc
1980 u yiOe,1
model to accurately mimic lake behaviour.
lO CM^>r>U —°del to observed over flows and lake levels <ron1
vaxubil *1 ^en<X^ fc>n fhe observed lake level record shows typical narural
* V P*nods of extreme dry years in rhe early io mid 1970’s and early 1980‘s, snd *
wet perxd in the j q«jq* j£j
s
in j lt uJeaJ for calibration purposes
u-M^yJl
I b F 4 S*01« Waler Rrxnxrer (7)
120rt VrW*-* ^
rhe performance of the model calibration was assessed. both qualitatively lie., mud inspect™
- 5irmlhtrd and observed time senes) and quantitatively using statnmed mmurn mdudm^
2
correlation coefficient (r) and the coefficient of detrrnunarmn (r ).
figure 3-11 »ho« the close companion achieved between observed lake leveb and those soiudared by the wafer balance model for the years 1980 - 2006. a pennd of natural lake level variation Statistical measures are lugh with R of 0 86 and R of 074 for lake levels fhese
:
values indicate good model performance
Ctood agreement between simulated and observed monthly flow and lake levels over a long period of record provides more confidence in the WEAP moders ability to represent rhe complex hydrological interactions that determine the Tana Beles basins water balance rhe calibration of WEAP model involved, because of some uncertainty with the inflows in particular from the ungauged catchments, lake evaporation, loss of lake volume during inundation of lake shoreline plains, therefore some adjustments to the inflows estimated using RAINRUN were made to better match the observed lake levels (Annex Mt)
Figure 5-11: Calibration for Iuake Tana from I960 - 1995 (natural)
th rC5l^ f
rs
rom u^tcr balance model simulation are used to determine the irra of imganon
r 20 be developed in the Belts catchment from hydropower releases before storage is
C ° Beles river. The WEAP modd is configured co amulaie the existing “baseline"
n
. ncs> f°r wBkh the water availability and demands can be confidently determined The used to simulate alternative scenarios based on “what if’ propositions to assess
^^ .CT Afferent future resource development and management opoons of Lake I ana Water 3 na’Beles hydropower scheme. Alternative scenarios ire developed tor full future hvd CS°UlCc development (F*D) in the Lake Tana basin with and without the Tana-Beles
I0 ?"*cr scheme of>c
„^
n
M odc|
5c cnano arc also developed for different operational role curves and minimum
s
(2j
Inch for Lake Tana A summary of the model sccnanos developer are tabulated
lWto H
121FM IBaap
I jMpwt Xk Ir^pS* l"hrf
bckm- in Table S-14 For cadi model scenario the impact on Lake Tana h d
releases to BeJes and Abbay riven arc explored. Modelled hydropower release t
arc then used to determine the imgablc area that can be developed before dam^ • Enat Beks is required for each operational rule for Lake Tana
Each WEAP model scenario is run with the minimum flow requirement (NfFR) such tha- minimum maintenance flow for environmental requirements in the Abbay nver upstrea^^
Tn hut Falls as recommended in the El A conducted for the Tana-Bdes transfer scheme»
met (see below) The WEAP modd is also tested using the environmental flow requireme: recommended on the Abbay river at 1$ Issat Falls by McCartney ct al. (2009) based on the mode! sernino S3. The scenarios ire run for the years 1980 to 2006 a period of 27 years
For each scenario, ihe WEAP modd was used to predict the impacts on lake levels ind lake area for each month of the 26 years simulated, the amount of electricity generated and firm releases to the Abbay and Belts rivers on a monthly and on an annual basis. In each senunn the time senes of lake water levels was analysed to determine in how many months over the. stan of simulation, the mean lake levd exceeded the minimum specified (required for navigation)
Table S-14: Model scenarios
Descripdoo
Full irrigation
development FD)
Tana-Bdes hvdrxjpo^’er
SO
SI
S2-A
Scenario
S2-B
S2-C.J
operating
Tana-Bdes operation rale (OR)
None
SMEC
SMEC
'revised)
|hkro'»‘
gird
»1 &
&
Minimum lake level in OR (null)
None
None
1.784.0
1,784.75
Cham Chara weir
operation
Cnrrgutated
Regulated
Chara Chan weu flow requirement
’MMF
’\TF
Abbay nun outflow
(m s)
None
v
10
________________ ___________________________________
'VncmtnJM operant* i> mdepcndeni of UU Ind opcratM* with a rekwc of 160 m'/i thnnighoot the dry flrm requirrmrnr (MIK) for unregulated opennoc of the dun Char* wnr 11 the mean monthly 
'
rfhe MIK for the regulated operxnam * A variable
(VHP) la^j wcu
^tl>rr et at 1997)
Cb F4 SrOla Water Rranurre* (2)
122
IJ-MO "y
Mcrtfeftityr
tT Vutfimcot^ ™ AA&jry fhrrr
For each model scenario the lake outflow b regulated by the Chara Chara wax. Regulated downstream Ho^ have to satisfy environmental flow requirements downstream of the Like curler and preserve the flows over rhe Th Issat Falls for aesthetic reasons as the falls are an important couri« attraction in Ethiopia. An environmental impact assessment (E1A) was undertaken by Bellicr ct aL (1997) before rhe Chara-Chara unr became operational recommending flows over die falls should remain between 10 -60 nP/t u tabulated in Tabic
5_j S bur these were based mostly on the aesthrtical lmpacn of different flows over the falls (McCartney et al. 2009), 'Pic ElA results indicate that tn maintain the trunumim ecological hincfioning in rhe reach with contains the falls requires an annual allocation of 995 Mm’.
The SMEC study (2008) used a Global Environmental Flow Calculator to assess the implication of a reduction of natural lake outflows and a regulated outflow after rhe Tana-BcJes Scheme becomes operational The flow pattern in that Abbay at Tis Issal falls is deemed by the calculator to he ’seriously’ modified reducing biodiversity in (he river dramatically McCartney ct J (2009) have used a more ecological based approach io determine environmental flow requirements in the Abbay river reach containing the Tis Issal falls using a Desktop Reserve Model (DRM) This study estimated that to maintain the basic ecological functioning of this reach an annual allocation of 826 Mm' is required, and no monthly allocation, even in dry years, should be less than about 3 “m /s (Lc.lQ Mm'}. However these estimates take no account of flows needed to maintain the aesthetics of the waterfall during popular (ourist months (McCartney ct aL 2009, 2LI10). For all model scenarios a variable environmental flow requirement based on those recommended by Briber ct aL (199") axe used. Tabic 5-15.
l
l^blc 5-15: Recommended minimum environmental flowi over the Tia I Mat Falla
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Auje
Sep
Oct
N<nr
Dec
Total
60
60
10
to
10
to
20
20
40
40
40
60
161
146
27
26
27
26
54
54
104
107
104
161
995
_ 25
23
16
11
9
8
15
31
74
44
42
32
68
56
42
28
23
21
39
83
192
117
109
86
862
f ct al^ 7); ’Source McCartney et al. {2OU9J
^tuc 5-12: Recommended monthly environmental flow requirement* on reach of Abbay river including Th Isaac Falla from E1A (Bellier et aL 1997) and DJLM
13-Mxr-l
123MrM
Erhiqu. oflTatrr E^
EtHofW N/< Im#*' t* Pna«JT
5.U Impacts on Lake Tana water levels and lake area
A comparison of the 27 year time series of simulated lake levels for all model SCen***^ existing or baseline condition is given on Figure 5-13.
Table 5-16 and fable 5-T summarises rhe results of each scenarios showing the unpactl fjq
water level and lake area of full water resource development in the Tana basin based on
if* management options of Lake Tana in particular how the lake is affected by the operation L; the Tana-Beles hydropower schrmc
The results indicate the decline in annual lake levels, and consequently lake area. With rrsourcc development in rhe Tana catchment ’lite magnitude of this decline in annual lake levels and lake area is dependant on how the Tana-Beles Scheme is operated Figure 5-14 slxm the simulated long term average monthly lake levels for each model seen ano compared tolar levels under the existing conditions
Figure 5-13: Simulated lake levels for each model scenarios Smdaltd Lake Tana waler level
1788,0
17175
= 1717.0
g 1718 5
~ 1716 0
1 1715 5
J 17150
*1714 5
1784 0
17136
Yew
----- So Ensting (Bas>ino)
----- S2A SXEC (min 17M mad)
----- S1 Tana Bair FO
----- S28 SMEC (min 17M.75 masi)
~ S3 HdcnM(rnin 1714 75 mad)
— S4 Lhccrar oied __________ - -
Ub F4 SrOla Water Resource.* (2!
124
13^f^r o/irufrrt^f:^
t
raj
The operation rules and minimum lake level selected for its opera don also did are the period of time uhen the monthly lake levels exceed 1 ,”85 mad required by shipping for safe navigation of Lake Tana I 'nder existing conditions lake levels hardly ever drop he low this level remaining above 1/85 masl for 98% of the rime (Figure 5-14 and Figure 5-15). L oder full development there are longer periods of lime when monthly lakr kvcb sue below’ 1,785 mis I but this differs depending on which operational rule and minimum operation Like levd is adopted The mean annual Lake level is 1/786.1 masl under existing conditions. with a maximum lake level of 1,786 8 masf and a minimum level of 1 / 85.5 mail.
Zgbjc 5-16: Simulated Lake Tana water level for model scenarios
Scenario
Full irrigation development
TD.__________
Tana Bcki opera tiny rule .OR
Ntin. Lake level in OR
I-Turing
None
None
'['ana basin
FD
‘None
None
S2-A
Tana basin FD
SMEC
1784
Tina basin
FD
Tam basin
FD
f lakrrnv Uncontrolled
None
Mean level (mad)_______________
1786.1
FB5.5
17853
Mom nun level .mad)____________ _Mean max level (masl)
Min kvcl_of nmc scries (masl)
1785.5
1785.0
1784.6
1786.8
F86.2
1785.9
1784.4
F83.B
17836
level of rimt yeries rosl
17873
17873
17HT0
52-B
Tana bann
FD
SMEC
1784.75
1785.6
1785.0
F86 3
1784 2
F872
1785”
1785-0
1786-4
17843
17873
1784.6
1785,8
1783.8
J 786.7
»rime mean water level
98% |
^^’li 'll’
Ji,..
13 Xlav ll
125R<.M.
Nti Imjflfrae Draw# Profit
Table 5-17: Change in Lake Tana waler levd
Scenario
so
SI
S2-A
hill irrigation devdopmen’ (FD)
Existing
Tana basin
I’D
Tana basin
FD
S2-B
1 ana basin
FD
1 *na baitr.
FD
*
Tina Belcs operating rule (OR)
None
None
SNHyC
SMEC
Hale row
Mm lake level in OR
None
None
F84
r 84.75
1784.75
Lake Tana
Mean level (mas!)
0
-0.54
-081
0.45
-0.38
Mean mm level mi'')
0
0.48
-0.87
0.49
0.47
Mean max level (mad)
0
■0.58
0.85
-0.49
039
Mm level of time senes (masl)
0
-0.60
0.82
-021
0.07
Max level of time senes masl;
0
•0.19
0.48
0.28
-0.2!
(a) Scenario S2-A
If the Tana-Betas scheme is operated using the SMEC rule curve and a minimum operation level for Lake Tana of 1,784 masl, then under a full development scenario (S2-A) the man annual lake level falls by 0.81 m from 1,786 1 masl to 1/85.3 masl (Table 5-16 and Table Mq Lake levels exceeding 1,785 masl just 52% of die time (Figure 5 15) The mean lake area*
reduced from 3,097 km to 3,039 km a loss of 58 km which is about 2% of its
2
:2
fo11^arrl1
5 18 As would be expected, the greatest impact occurs during periods of dry years mo.t significant Iv from years 23 and 24 of die simulation. During these periods lake le\ el15 ul 0.82 m lower than existing levels in the dry season declining from 1,784 4 to 1. W-6 flU* the extreme dry years of 23 and 24 lake levels rarely remain above 1.785 masl in any ^nth
Dunng the dncit years the surface area of the lake is reduced by as much as 153 km fa*
:
0
mean annual minimum lake area of 3,054 km to 2,902 km . This is likely to have a neg«
2
2
nvC
impact on lake navigation, exacerbating detriment to the lake’s ecology in particular shored wetlands and near shore ecosystems.
Ub 14 SrOla Wm-r Kc*^urrr» (2)
12b
1PW
II<>JEt*"t*J. Mt/Uftry
Stk ifn&t™ *** lywap Pf^ta
mean lake are*
__________
3.09
3.0M
3.039
-43 (-1 4%j
_-58 (1.9%)
3,061
36 . 12%)
5,069
3.024
♦29 (-0.9*4)
-73 (2.4%)
(b)
Scenario S2-B
2
The above results confirm the recommendations by SMEC (2008) to adopt a higher minimum operation level of 1 ,"84 75 masl to sate guard shipping on Ijikr Tana and reduce impacts on Lake Tana and its environs. If the Tana-Bcles scheme is operated using this operation rule, under a full development scenario (52-B) the mean lake level declines by 0.45 m to 1,785.6 mas! (Table 5-16 and Table 5-17). I^ke levels remains above 1,785 masl for 85% of the nme. Figure 5-15. The mean lake area declines from 3,097 km ro 3,061 km a reduction of 36 km or 1 2% of the total lake area, Table 5-18 In the severe dry year of 24 a minimum water level of 1,784.2 masl is reached which is 0 21 m lower compared to the existing condition Dunng severe dry periods the lake area declines up to 101 km-' from the mean annual minimum lake area of 3,054 km to 2,953 km Because the diversion of waler is restricted sooner at Iowa lake lev els
2
2
::
monthly long term average lake levels arc considerable higher compared when a minimum operation level of 1,784 masl is adopted.
(c) Scenarios S3
If the Halcrow operation rule is used to operate the diversion of water from Lake Tana to the hydropower station in the Beks catchment, under full development (S3) the mean lake level falls bv only 0.38 m to a water level of 1,785.7 masl (Table 516 and Table 5-17). The mean
2
2
annual lake area decreases by 29 km to 3.069 km a change of less than 1%. I-akc water levels mam high, exceeding 1,785 masl for 89% of the time period (Figure 5-15). Because lake levels
^cced this level for the majority of the tunc shipping on Lake Tana would be disrupted less In ) fear °f 24 a minimum water level of 1,784.3 masl is reached which is 0.07 m
r compared ro the exiting condition. In some years the surface area of the lake will be
'
to 2,961 km2 following particular severe prolonged dry periods.
Simulated lake levels over the 27 year tune senes arc con
•«*» the SMEC using the same minimum operation
^ktcntlv marguullv “,nH
shown for the long term average lake levels (Figun: . 
sUnc rf5ult „
Halcrow . GIRD
from Jan1111) 10
tulc achieves higher flow releases dunng the drv se**°n„ JJows a greater ,fel 1108,0011 *°
May compared to the SMF.C roles (2008). This essenceilly developed before storage is required, and
necessary compared to requirements based on operational rules This is discussed furtlier below
* capiaty w
If the
(2009)
u$Ulg th
fC ^Ulrcincnts sxVirc^ to meet those reported by McCartney ct aJ
c £>RA1 approach, under full de\-elopmcnt, then the mean annual lake level hFt^rji Dt^rj^ fyM tf'EfMp* Afwrfn of IF^ & E"f&
Elbtipit* Nik Imftfm a*J Dnunjf< Prvjrit
slightly raised to 1.785.8 mis) which is 0.33 m lower compared to the existing condition
levels are fractionilly improved compared to those estimated using environmental fl(kU requirements based on the ElA study undertaken by Bdlier er al (1997). Under full
development lake water levels remain above 1,785 masl for 90% of the time penod a
comparison of results for each scenario for S3 using the two distinctly different envuo^^
flow requirements arc tabulated below in 1 able 5-19.
Correct operation of the inter-basin transfer of Lake Tana water to the adjacent Bclcs
catchment is essential to maximize active lake storage at the end of the wet season for use fori following dry vear. If the Tana-Bclcs hydropower scheme is operated on a demand for
electricity basis only, without managing lake storage, then serious impacts on 1 jkc lana ionp term water levels occur (Figure 5-14).
Table 5-19: Lake Tana water level using Halcrow - GIRD rule (S3) with environmental
requirements on Abb ay river based on ELA an d D R M values.
Scenario
S3
S3
S3
.. 53 - J
Full irrigation development
(FD)
lana liatin
FD
Tana basin
FD
Tana basin
FD
7 ana basin
_FP . J
Tana Belts operating rule ((>R
Haler ou’ A
GIRD
1 laicrow A
GIRD
Hakrow A
GIRD
1 ialcrow A
Gntp__
.Min lake level tn OR
1784.75
P84.75
PM.75
I7M 5- -
Environmental flows on Abbey met ar Tis Issai
ElA
(Rellier et
1997)
DR.M
(McCartney
et aL 2009)
ElA
(Bcllier er
1997)
1JR3J
(McCirtney et al. 3009/
Lake Tana
— — -
Mean level (mail
1785.7
1785.8
0.38
0.33
.Mean mm level mail}
1785.0
1785.1
-0.47
-042
Mean max level masl)
P86.4
1786 4
0.39
-0-36
Mm level of rime senes (mail;
17843
1784.4
-0.07
aoi
.Max level of nmc senes (masl;
1787.3
F87.3
0.21
oil
• e time mean water level exceeds 1.785 masl
89%
90%
-
(d) Scenario 54
Uncontrolled flow releases to the hydropower scheme of 160 m'/s (ix. 4 turbines) during 1 dry season results m a dramatic fall in the mean annual lake level by 1.0 m (Table 5-17) P u the dnest years in year 23 and 24 minimum Lake levels fall below 1/84 masl to a mining P 1,783.75 mas! which is 0 64 m below the existing time series minimum lake level of M*V -
when shipping was severely disrupted lhe mean annual lake area is depleted by 73 km’tc’ 3.024 km . In the fall development scenano with uncontrolled releases lake levels exceed L mas! just 45% of the time (Table 5-16). Navigation problems would remain an annual rHrcurrrncc as lake levels hardlv exceed du* level in any year from January to |unc (Figure
If the Tana Beks hvdropower scheme i* operated on a demand for electricity basis onty’ is potential for serious environmental impacts on Lake lana and difficulties for shipping i>°
2
t’h |*'4 5iOla Water Jtaoutres (2)
128__Mrt increases annual energy production by 8% but results indicate that lake levels would
Climate change has not been considered in this study but« likely to have an adverse effect on
r ^c water resource availability and irrigation demands in the fana-Beles basins, exacerbating th Jccline in water levels of I-ake Tana, and reducing its surface area further, and increasing us vulnertbilitv to environmental, social and economic damage-
Comparison of Lake Tana drawn-down with McCamey et al (2010)
study
McCartney et al (2010) have also developed a water balance model of Lake Tana Io evaluation of current and future wa ter resources development m rhe Tudce Tana Basin- McCartney et aL (2010) shows simitar lake level draw down if the full development scenano (EDS) in the Lake Tana catchment is implemented (without VFT) compared to Scenano S2-B (SMEC 2008) and Scenario 3 (Hakrow de GIRD), whereby the mean annual water level will be lowered by 0.44 m. But in the FDS with Tana Beles operating, even without the VEF releases, water levels exceed 1.785 masl just 78° * of the time Also, McCartney et al (2010) shows greater drawn down of water levels in FDS when using VEF releases to the Abbay compared to results presented in Scenario S2-B (SMEC 2008) and Scenario 3 (Halcrow <Sc GIRD) the latter showing a small
benefit
Furthermore, the average surface area of the lake will decrease by 30 km and in some years, this will be reduced by as much as 81 km during the dry season This is likely to have significant impacts on the ecology of the lake, particularly in the littoral zone, and result in desiccation in the wetland", around the lake shore, impacting the on near shore vegetation (lc. papyrus rerd) important for Ncgcdc people (McCartney ct aL 2010).
H 2003 when lake levels were at their lowest farmers moved onto the lake bed to grow crops. It ls expected at lower lake levels farmers will use the dried lake bed for food production and frying therefore expanding recession agriculture. However, this is likely to have a negative
^pacr on near shore ecosystems and exacerbate sedimentation in to the Lake- There is a
2
2
■ ea*.njfteg (2)
15-Miy 11
129hdtn.. Df***ath tfEfbupj. Afimjry ifWarrr&Efitrp Eth&M .Vxi IrrqjOM jeJ Dngaqt Pnjfrt
* - —-**
phnts at Tis Abbay will be used as standby only (SMEC 2008, McCartney et al, 2009) The regulation of the Chara-Chara weir will ensure that environmental How requirements, needed maintain biological life in the river, are sustained.
A comparison of the partition of the outflow from Lake Lana between the Abbay and Beics rivers with the existing condition for all model scenarios is presented in 1 able 5-20. Rcsuti summarise the quantity of flow released to the Bcles and Abbay rivers based on different Mi if management options, in particular how the magnitude of each flow is affected by the different opcrndonal rules adopted for the Tana-Bdes hydropower scheme. Model scenario* assume full development of water resource tn the Tana catchment, and that the regulated flo releases from the Chara-Chara weir to satisfy environmental maintenance flows upstream < 1 is lssat waterfall are met, as reported in studies by Bellier et aL (1997) and McCartney ct al (2009), the lartcr for model scenario S3 (HaJcruw - GIRD rule) only.
Results for each sccnano give the total annual outflow to the Heirs catchment &otn 1-*^
r
and total available flow for the RrU< «r— .. a---------------- - ’
L1
-
-- ---------- -
1m
(i e including natural catchment flou ^ R f --------------------------- ---------------------------------
outflow to the Ahbav over
i ”U K
scenario also give the total annual hke
* * 
— • 
- --J ..rtcrrrjjD 0«‘
130, 
• fvaHr *F,ns
fb) Scenario S2-A
ff the Tana-Beles scheme is operated using the SMEC rule curve adopting a minimum uperaaon for Lake Tana of 1J84 masl, under a full development scenario (S2-A). 2J75
Mm’/y1 ot water “ 
tO Wcs carchmem Per annum for electricity production and
scenar o Scenario
Legation, Table 5-20. The natural Bdcs catchment of contributes an additional 466 Mm’/yr to
f he total annual flow at the right bank diversion weir On the Abbav river, releases immediately downstream of the Chara-Chara weir total 984 Mm’/yr per annum with 1.451 MmVrr reaching the Tis Issit Falls annually At I is ksat Falls the simulated annual flow satisfies the total annual environmental flow requirement of 995 Mm '/yr estimated in the Bcllicr et al (1997) environment impact assessment (ELA) and also the lower value of 862 Mm'/yr estimated using the Desktop Reserve Model (DRM) in the McCartney et aL (2009) study. The E1A stud? also recommended that flows over the falls should be in the range 10-60 m'/s (Le. 27-161 Mm’)
Table 5-20 shows tint the minimum and maximum monthly flows immediafelv upstream of the Tis Issat mert these criteria.
(c) Scenario S2-B
As expected by adopting a higher minimum operation level of 1,784.75 masl with the SMEC rule to operate the Tana-Beles scheme, under a full development scenario (S2-B), a marginally lower total annual flow of Lake Tana water is diverted to the Beles catchment, about 2,305 Mm'/yr, a 3% reduction in flow dnrersiofL The annual lake outflow to the Abbay nver totals 975 Mm'/yr, with 1,443 Mm’/yr at the Th Issat Falls. Despite a small decline in annual flow’s the criteria for environmental maintenance flow’s remain satisfied at the waterfall.
Table 5-20: Partition of Lake Tana outflow to the Abbay and Be lei riven for each model
i
so
SI
S2-A
S2-B
S3
S4
FalJ»]ptian development
jHr
F’jusnng
Tana basin
FD
Tana bum
FD
Tana basin
FD
Tana basin
FD
Tana basin
FD
■“* °f*ntuig rule (OR)
Beln
None
None
SMEC
SMEC
Hakruw
8c GIRD
Uncontrolled
Akk
------
None
None
1.784
1,784.75
1.784.75
None
2?W/yr) M
3575
3 374
984
975
980
827
an ~~---------------- ■
■ SSjMmJ
j’kn firm ?------------------------------
298
281
82
81
82
68 93
.
885
864
161
159
161
1475
-----------—
35
29
24
23
23
1.84
100%
100%
29%
29%
29%
25%
~ Ma-BefeHEP
0
0
23?5
2.505
2512
2.621
———
__________
466
466
2,851
2.767
2.750
3,096
258
39
229
39
238
231
169
169
383
383
287
517_
_____
1
1
177
162
184
29
---------- —
0
0
71%
68%
68%
78%
iwn
131I '&'iL
*I'JfHptx. Xbwf^j tj IT,*>r cw Eanp
Ev««ria« .Ait Z'nt^r* tW PnaMpr P*w.r
Scenario
SO
SI
S2-A S2-B
-L.&3^
Th lull falli flow-’
i jinrvamentaJ flow rrsfwrrTTxnf (E1A}' (Alm’/rr)
995
995
995 995
FrinmnmcntiJ flow mjiaratnt DRMyAlm’/vr)
862
862
862 J
862 I
TetiF (Alm’/rr)
4.042
3,841
1.451 I 1 443 I
Mean
337
Max flew (Alm’)
969
Atm flow -Alm"__________
______46
320
948
37
121 1
2'6 1
120 [
276
31 30 1
___ —
________ °62
_______ 1,448
121 t
*-T '7x 0
in
’ Ife- M <bc dnmwn ra for nght lank nmmin<j ,1th cnntnbunn>t o chm„, )jf g65
~
,
3 Sernano with 1 ana Beta opening flow is rhe regulated outflow from Chara-<_"hara war ai Andina nver with Ta Abay 1 A IIII EP ttanon assumed is standby only (i.c. not operating) ID--------- • «
' Het ummendrd rrnmmmrotal flw af Tu lust by Bdbet n al J 997)
> - * 4 RrcTtnmcndcd cnvtnjnmcaral fltrun ar Tu litar by McCartney ci al (2009)
5 Indudmg flow fnwn mtmming catchment
(d) Scenario S3
1/0
 (1,031 km ) including the tributary r»f rhe Andasn river
3
NXTien the Hakruw - GIRD rule curve is used to operate die diversion of water from Lak Tio io the hydropower station in the Bclcs catchment, under full development (S3) the amount oi lake water is diverted to Bdcs catchment is about 2,312 Mm’/yr. The Chara-Chara war provides a regulated outflow totalling 980 Mm’/yr on the Abbay river accreting to 1.448
Mm /yr above the waterfall, still above the threshold for environmental maintenance flw-
T.. I —
When the model scenario S3 is chinged to satisfy’ environmental released ba. DRM rather than chose based on the ElAs, more water is diverted from catchment, about 2,428 Mm’/n annually 'Ous is because less is released to th annual allowance to meet environmental flows is 862 Mm’/yr about 13 <» 1C5S Mm’/yr allowance recommended by the El A (Table 5-21). Under this scenario Mm’/yr of water is rdeased downsueam to the Abbav river by the Chara Char* total annual flow in the reach upstream of Tis Issii Falls of 1,321 MmVyr, the pgpj the lower allowance of 862 Mm’/yi estimated using DRM at the falls However, t ^jjy esumaies make no allowance io provide flows in the right season to maintain «cS pleasing flows over the falls popular with tounsts (McCartney cl al 2009).
. p those
o
\bbay a$
I’b F4 SvOla Water Ftewjurrea (2)
132
JJ-W41;4
^ l'r***a *** Pwa
5 2 |. Comparison of Abbay and Belea riven uwng Hakruw - GIRD rule* (S3) with
T*
different environmental requirement! baaed on EIA and DRM on Abbey
river
If.k •-
1 Recommended environmental fl<lU't it Til Im* by I lowird cf al (1907) and Briber ct ( 7)
■ Recommended cn\in*nrnmul flows it Tis Imt by McCartney et J '"20OT
Sc«*noS4
n'u ijandea-J Beles hvd yoropower scheme ts operated on a demand for ekctndty basis only, as in
1 * tOt1^111/1 A°w
dectriQ^ *^
MmVyr is diverted to the Bdes catchment for
^PwitXlv UC0On *nd f°r trn8a&oa purposes However, as lake levels decline npidly
La| outfl '
c
A°U W rc^cascs t0 Abbiy over compared to the S2 and S3 scenanos
1
\,&4 Mm /
IO On
27
^ & Mo>Vyx and the total annual flow received at the falls declines to
Abbay fIVc f ^^ough the environmental flow requirement is met oo an annual basis on the
as only n u
cnlcna of the minimum monthly maintenance flow of 27 Mm1 is not rn can be delivered
IVMayll
•unci <2)
133I •***> Df9*rrt. K/fM, tjhipM. .\lxtfr) tif IFttfrr c £f»r*p
u
X4 /-yo^r* rfW Pnr*<r
5 L< Eaivoameot ffo» rtyuiranentf oo Abb*j river nr 77k Tkwr n-atcrfal!
The <-iM>naJ flows pattern in the reach of the Abbay immediately upstream of T
is sbou-n un Figure 5-16 Simulated rto« arc based on lake outflow from model *
(lc. Ilakrow - GIRD rule) and with allowance for minimum environmental
by Briber et al (1997) The results show that the environmental requirements are <a ,7*** surpassed during lhe wet season and dry season until February. Figure 5-17 shows the ** Abbay flows at Tts Issat from model scenario S3 for environmental flows -~rifrnniiiuhu^ on DRM (McCartney et. aL 2009) The simulated monthly flows satisfy the allowance* nenfe! to nuinrun the stream ecology based on DRM estimates.
Figure 5-16: Environmental flow requirements and simulated Abbay flows at Til fan using model scenario S3 (EIA)
c
Figure 5-17: Environmental flow requirements and simulated Abbav flows a< ____ ul“>8 model icturio S3 (DRM)
Til JM**
.
'
FUcanmertto erwm«ta tar rtquwrwO ton EM DflAI rt modetai few TH b Ml Frfi **»T**
Beta tfP opentaf (S3) w#i W F ORM Tb /tavy -1 i IX p ********
L’b 1-4 SfOb Wjtcr R ru Hirer k (T;
134. 
•'' '
, v rr
’ > •fratrr d- twj
X«* -v,>
Dn "^
< f4 
Ttnt-Bek* hydropowrr rcJennat
The seasonal pattern of flow releases from the Tana-Bdes hvd
determining the area of irrigation that can be develop ' °P " ’tation is tmporu
OU
nt for
catchment before storage on the Belcs river is required
" '** 1PPCT
hydropower releases during short periods of higher demand
’“P^ment
Januarv to April, when shortfalls in supply f trr^oon <K
or
5 rTuxuh' from
at or close to the minimum operational level The Tana 
whcn *«ke levels are
controlled by the Lake Tana water levels and the ooerann / 'dt°P°Wer rde,*« »e
Scheme
n rU cl adopted for the Tana-Bcles
The relationship between the seasonal pancm of flow releases. as well as rhe amount of water released at any given time, compared to the seasonal distribution and magnitude of irrigation demand is important when considering the area of irrigation that can be developed before storage on the Belcs river is required Understanding this relationship is also needed when determining the capacity of storage required once the area of imgation increases beyond this level of development 1 lydropower releases into the Belcs catchment not only have to satisfy the requirements for irrigation development but also maintain electricity production whilst avoiding environmental detriment to Lake Tana and downstream on the Abbay river.
Figure 5-18 shows the different seasonal pattern of hydropower long term average flow releases based on operational rules adopted for model scenarios S2 to S4 assuming full water resource development The monthly volumes of hydropower releases to (he Belcs river, available for irrigation, for each model scenario arc summarised in Table 5-22- lhe hydropower plant is designed to operate with an average plant factor of 48%. The Salmi and Pietrangeh <2006) designed the scheme to have an average discharge through the tunnel of m'/s with discharge peaking at 160m Vs at high lake levels The probability of hydropower releases exceeding vanous flows for each model scenario is shown in Figure 5-19.
■ B<Mirecs (2j
H Mm II
135Pr^r-. * E***
fa^fin N<i f-V-S” P™**' P?**
,■ T»na-Bclc« hydropower releases for scenario, s2 te
1falcrow &
GIRD
1,784.7$
DRM
Mm'
If the SMEC rules cunts are adopted. „ expected, less flow is released to the Bdcs river * the minimum lake operational level is raised to 1.784.75 mail When the lake is oper*,cd minimum level of 1.784 masl (Le. S2-A) hydropower releases arc above the average of 77 V dunng early dry season from September to December, but then fall marginally below 77 » to a minimum of 71 m’/s dunng the peak tmganon season from January to April However, this n at the expense of lake levels. Figure 5-20. Flow is released to the Beks catchment 95% of the ume. and for 83% of the time remams above 77 m’/s. but only
high
°f "’e ume (Lc >120 mVl). llui pi„cm of
»
mirrored when the minimum Uke level of 1.784 75 ma,1 fLc. S2 B) „ J
.
diverted from Like I aru, benefiting Ukc Icvcli Th.. u i
but less *
r
. 
. ^ ^^nver receives hvdmpowerrd^
92% of the time, and these arc above 77 np/s for 770/ f 4% of the time, Figure 5-19. 
‘
° * ante, wnh flow > 120m’A I*
i/« iitft
f
156
I fb M SrOh Wiltr Rewurrf (2)
IJ M»» J1Ifh d
Scenario S3
77 m*/5 rC^Cascs llc based on the Hakrow GIRD rule cuno (ie. S3) a flow of above
°Peritio U. 
* or r^e majority of the dry season, despite adopting the higher minimum
Figure 5 2u 1»?S4.75 rnasl, Figure 5-18. As a results lake levels arc preserved snll further, and March ^°UCV Cr’ ^° releases are a fraction below 77mVs during the months of February
w
BeU. • R
n
ro • 4 rn'/s when irrigation demands rend to peak Flow is released to rhe
with
s nv
rc [
cr 890 . 
mc Qnic WIt
r
3
7
h the average flow of 77 m /s bang exceeded J% of the time,
Cleaf|.
tooths fr R
r
a k°' 120 m'/$ for 9% of the rime, Figure 5-19.
c
tO SMEC ndes (te. S2-A and S2-B), the Hakrow - GIRD rule (lc53) lna lly higher hydropower long term avenge releases dunng the dry season
GJRD rui^1 tO w^en trnganon and electricity demand art highest. The Hakrow therefOlc^ *U°W’S a 8™tCf ‘forage m Lake Tim dunng the «t seasons nsing lake levels
Peak. \
X}l ° W“« n,Orc w»tcr to be released dunng the dty season when unganon demands en 'he Halcrow - GIRD operational rule is used in combination with allowances
13-NtavH
......Meaty rf’ITgfrr <•*• h»np
l.rwfu’w Xzi Irr^f^g Pnrt<r Fn**!
recommended for environmental maintenance flows on Ab bay river based on fk developed by McCartney et al (2009) rather (han those from the EIA higher fk> *
u
to the Belcs at no expense to lake levels (Figure 5-18 and Table 5-22). Flow release
of the time and are above 77m Vs for 79% of the time. 
(c) Scenario S4
If the releases are based on electnciry demand only, and attempt to maximise releases of 160m'/i during the dry season, then a releases of 160m'/s can only be sustained for M’.offr
° tCUr^>
time, and ooh- until mid January before lake levels drop considerable curtailing such rcfa<* Tabic 5-22. Flows above *7m'/s occur just 48% of die time because lake levels fall dranuuoj only remaining above 1,785 mas] for 45% of the time.
Hydropower releases. Beles natural flows and lake levels for each modelled scenario (S2 to ST/ are shown below on Figure 5-20.
b F4 Srfh U'jtrr Resource’ (2)
138139
UMir-H>
/•**** 
/ /*w<*w« Xtb !"*>**• /* l>ra^ prmf
r' u jtn cw /;•*£?
5,17 T^ru-Bcles hydwpo*rf generation
The um of the Ethiopian Electricity and Power Corporation (EEPCO) b todiven apprvumateh 1985 Mm’ annually through the funnel to generate 2,310 GWh/yevof clectncitv under existing conditions (SMEC 2008). Firm energy prcxluction is estimated Jf 1.866 GUh/xear (SMEC. 2008) Both the 7b Abbay power stations will be mothballed onh used for *tind by (emergency) generation or when lake levels arc ven high.
Not surpnsingh as lmgauon development and dam construction progresses in the upstra* Tana bum clectnciry generation at the new Tana-Beles hydropower plant is expected to nd* as water levels in Lake Tana decreases, reducing total lake outflows to rhe Bries carchmcnt
The extent of any reduction of infer-basin transfer of water from I ake I ana under full imgauon development will be determined by the adopted operational rules for the ranj-Belo Scheme.
WT*en using rv 
a minimum operation level of 1/84 nu»l with the SMEC rule, about 2,375 Mm’rf
10,1001 generating 1,860 
GWh/ycar of dee trial)' When the mirunxr:
l i an-
IO
^crc i
s a reduction of electricity prtxlucnon by 3*«®
CIW3 rule
’ ** 
if the SMEC rule is substituted with the lhh~
The annual production of electricity, during the wet and dry season, under full irrigation development. for each model scenario is given in Table 5-23 The pcrccnragc changes in clectnan production compared to the SMEC rule using the minimum operation les'cl off & masl arc tabulated in Table 5-24.
Table 5-23: Tana-Be les hydropower cncrpy production tGWh)
Scenario
S2-A
S2-B S3 __
bull irrigation development (FD)
Tana Bclc* operating rule (OR)
Tana ba tin
ED
Tana basin
FD
1 Tana Irasin T
FD___
SMEC
1
Min lake level in ()R
1.784
Environmental flow on Abbav at Tts Jtsai
eia
SMEC 1 Hale row &
1 GIRD
1.784.75 ' 1.784.75 EIA | EIA
Tana basin
fP Hafcro*
1.78475,
Tana Bciea hydropower production
\nnua! energy pr<-<fucij< in (»Wh 1
Annual energy production
Energy production .dn triton Oct -Apr) (GUh Energy production (wet tea ton Jun - >epj (GWh Energy production (Jan Jun) GVCty
1.860
1.805 1
1.808 1
212
206 1
206 1
1,057
995 1 1.160 !_
803
887
810 1 648 ' 830 1 945
Energy pr< xiiKDon (thonagr Mar - Jun G\Xh)
602
563 ( 627\[
t'b I 4 5«01a Water Re*ourrc« ?
140yt,K!rrrj W*"
' He**’ DrJ'^ Pn,r't
Table 5-24: Difference in Tana-Bek, hvdropow„ „rn r
, „.
scenario S2-A (SMECrule 1784 m ,|
at
C °,n,>"td 10 '""del
Scenario
S2-A
S2-B
S3
1 S3
54
MlC^‘*' T '
tk raen
Tana basin
FD
Tana basin
FD
Tana basin
FD
Tana baun
FD
Taaa baun
FD
T^BelnopennngruJeCOR)
SMEC
SMEC
Halcruw A
GIRD
1 lakruw &
GIRD
Inc rx: trailed
\(m hke le'xl n OR — —--------------------
1,784
1.78455
158455
1 ’84.75
None
^-romenuJ flow on Abbey at Til hut
HA
E1A
E1A
DRM
EIA
T.SJ Brie* fcdropowcr production
1 AflfwJ eneno producnon (%)
0
3%
3%
+2
IneffT production (dn seaion (kt Apr) •%
0
6%
♦10%
*14
*37%
EnecRv production wvt season Jun - Sep) (%)
0
♦1%
-19%
15%
•W%
Frznti production (Jan-Jun; 5 •
0
6%
*7%
♦ to*.
-28%
Eflcr^v production (ihortagr Mar -Jun %
0
-7%
>4% 1
*6%
66%
The intent of the I laicrow GIRD operational rule is to divert more water for lmgation during the dry season, especially dunng times of peak demand (Le. January to April) by scoring more water in I jike Tana in the wet seasons and timing releases to comade with this period, whilst at the tame time attempting to preserve lake levels and generate electricity. Dus partem is reflected in (he long term average clcctncity production which shows a 10% increase dunng the dry season when compared with the SMEC operational rule (S2-A) In the months irom January to June, a period of high irrigation demand, there is a "% increase m energy’ production. Elcctncity can be considered more valuable dunng times of shortage during the dry season. Dunng this penod of the dn season, when the 1 laicrow operation rule is adopted, there is a 4 o increase in decenary production. I lowcvcr, later in the year during the wet season, when
outflow to the Belos catchment is restricted in order to maximise lake storage for the toDowing year, there is a 19% reduction in energy production-1 lowcvcr, it is understood that shortages in dcctridty aic less common nationally dunng the wet season because other stations in the
country would be available to meet demand dunng this penod
ombinanon with environmental Notably, if the I laic row - GIRD operational rule is used . cl (2009) then clectncny
flow requirement on the Abbay over recommended by M production increases further. Because the annual outflow to 
is available to be diverted to the adjacent Bclcs catchment An a ln «wscd by 2% compared to the SMEC opcratxinal role (S
re»»on, with a 6’ o increases from Much to June assuming
less, mote water
t,
Junng the dry
„ jn elopmeni.
‘mgaaon development And storage recrement w study (see below) examines whether reservoir ’,o
Upper Beles projeef
ire *
<m the Belts
10
"^ demand (te
of
'“Pplemcnt Tana-Beles hydropower releases during >
^‘hs) when shortfalls in supply for irrigation occur
^rumum opcratsonal level, or when the power station is ^^urdancc with operating rules.
, t o, dose to
„ planned or m
C **rcr» (2)
IJ.MjvII
141I f' Arj.'
MiUftn rflTCtrr & Etfrg
Efafin Kut l^a^a 4* *iI hvMjr /5wnf
Jtrypidon Dudes for Upper Beks
The total water demand? for the (surface) irrigation development have been estimate CROPVVAT (version 8) Pour water demand options arc considered each associate
different mix of sugar estate, small/ medium commercial farms and smallholder nuiu^j. Being a relatively “tbtrftf' crop the proportion of sugarcane is particularly important T><v_ demand options considered were
• Option A (Low-end estimate): 20% of commercial sugarcane plus "0% small h^ plus 10% commercial mixed crops: all surface irrigation;
• Option B (Mid-end estimate): 45% of commercial sugarcane plus 45% small hoik phis 10% commercial mixed crops: again all surface irrigation;
• Option C (High-end estimate): 100% of commercial sugarcane in the Hyma $03 ph about 63% commercial sugar in Upper Belts along with 36% of smallholder mnod crops and 2% commercial mixed crops;
• Option D (Maximum estimate): 100% commercial sugarcane in both Upper Belo ad
Hyma.
Thc proposed total net area of irrigation for the Upper Beks scheme is 63.8 1 ha with 31,509 ha on the nght bank and 32362 ha on the left bank development. In addition 20.000 hi o commercial sugar is assumed for I ivnu (Upper Dindir) Including this area brings the total(nn area of irrigation to 83.8’1 ha.
Opaon C is broadly representative of the recommended development Option 2 for L'pP« Bd« (and Hyma). wuh a core sugar estate plus sufficient irrigated land allocated to snullh<>Uc farmers in the proiect area for their sustained livelihoods as well as small areas for small / medium commercial farm mixed cropping-' The breakdown of die command area by category for this option is presented below in Table 5-25.
Table 5-25: Upper Be lei ii
areas for left
Major Farm Category
Total irrigated area (ha)
Right bank (ha)
Large commercial sugar estate
39.9R1 (62.6%)
23.098
Smallholder farms
22.872 (35.8%)
8.411
Small/medium commerce] farms
1.018(1.6%)
0
Total (excL Hyau)
63,871 (100%)
31.509
Hwru commercial sugar estate*
20, (XK)
Total (tncl. Hyma)
83,871
Note the 3D.O0U net imp** an* lw I lyma « assumed. Actual net implitn area m F lyma nm*» w
Opaon D is included to represent the maximum demand possible in the proper area result from 100% sugarcane cropping with smallholders either relocated outcrop the 0' depending on the livelihood on sugarcane cropping, ciihcr as estate employees or outcrops
. pi iii
• Refer SR02H. frngatcJ Agnculturr Ac Agro ccorrnmic dcvelopmmi plan rang f.< JcumpthHi rif jwkJ (modrlk’d) devrlnpmmf npm*»«
lb H StOU Wafer Resource* (2?
142M tWy Po<ls C at nVCt ^’vcn,on PoinT--' trngioon duties for each option are tabulated below
Table 5-26 Irrigation duties area based on the long term average monthly ET and effective
a
nfall estimates presented in Chapter 2. For each option seasonal imgarinn demands fie ffibcr to June) arc estimated for a range of areas of irrigation development from 1 5.000 hi
90 000 hi- Details of cropptng patterns, calendars ind water use efficiencies are provided i'n SR-OlB Irrigation i Drainage Development report
Dutic" for Upper Beks
Hvm*) Pm
eci Are*
1 ADK J-***- —----------------- ----------------
Option A
Option B
Option C
Option D
Mofith
(Low)
(Mid)
(High)
(Munnum)
Duty (1/i/h*)
0.80
0.78
0.79
0.69
February
1.01
0.95
095
0.77
Nla rrh
0.90
0.94
1.03
0.96
April
0.72
088
0.93
131
May
030
066
0.79
108
* - J---------—-------------------- jiine
0.16
0.16
0.14
049
Jul}’
0.00
0.00
000
0.00
August
0.00
0.00
0.00
ODO
Seprcmbcr
O.CM
006
0.07
0.10
October
048
0J7
035
0.50
November
0.40
0.5?
069
0.98
December
0.49
0 58
0.66
0.77
Avera gen
0.43
0.49
033
0.61
The monthly gross irrigation duties for each option ire shown below on Figure 5-21
Mcr Htiounc, (2)
143/ r4r*J 
K/^atu. #7l/Ar<]f»4. Mtwtn tflTsfrr C litfTp
u
lilhuftJf Xur
mJ D^rup /W.f
5.20 Divernon sod storage requirements st Upper Befes project area
I he available water resources for the Upper Bcles project area come from both
• Lake Tana hydro* power releases, reported in Table 5-22,
• blows from the natural catchment upstream, as described in Chapter 3.
As an example, if the total area of irrigation development for Upper Belts profcCt 1 then the annual requirement is 1,440 Mm’ when Option C with lugher end duties is equivalent to an annual irrigation delta (depth of water) of 1.69 m. l*hw >* equivalent 62% of the total annual divenion from Lake Tana via the tunnel to (he Boles citcl,fnC * 5-27). However, this is in terms of “total annual resource availability” More imp°r<* comparison of monthly irrigation demand ind water supply.
Table 5-27: Annual irrigation demand (Option C) for 85,000 ha and Lake Tana °
Belew catchment
s g5t000M
fl>
--
Ope radon of rules
Imitation Option C (high)
Model
•cenano
Tana-Bekw
Ope rational
rale
Minimum
operation
of lake
(mul)
Irrigation
area
(h«)
Annual
irrigation
demand
(Mm )
HEPdh"^
1
Annual
outflow from
Tana-Belew
HEP (Mm0
S2 A
SMEC
1.784
85,000
1.440
2475
S2B
SMEC
1,784.75 85.000
1.440
2.305
S3
flak row
1.78475 85,000
1.440
2.312
Ji
Ub F4 SrOta U ster Ke* «urce< (2)
144M,n,ny * E*"»
X<* 
PnrKt
The water received at the right bank diversion weir on Bek, river (865 km-') is
monthly basis for the pc nod 1980 to 2005 using simulated hydropower rdeLTplu, the emanating from the upstream natural catchment The allow, the surplus arxl defiat balance m available water to meet monthly irngatxm demands for different levels of development in the Upper BcJes project and for different irrigation dunes (Opt™ A3 and Q to be determZed
A. the area of tmgadon » increased a level of development is reached when month, of surplus water availability are repheed with months of defiat, after which storage on the Enat Bele, over is required to supplement flow, received from lake Tana to meet tmganon demand, As the area of tmgauon increase, the volume of this defiat will increase. The accumuhnve volume of monthly defiat determines the ‘live’ storage required
Irrigation demand (Opuon C - high), available flow, the surplus and defiat balance of available water at the right bank diversion wear on Bdes over (865 km-} for a low. medium and a high level of imgation development are shown firstly on f igure 5-22 with hydropower release, based on adopting the Halcrow - GIRD operational rule (S3), and secondly on figure 5-23 with hydropower releases using the SMEC operational rule (S2-B) both assuming of 1,784 75 nusl as the minimum operational level for Lake Tana
lVMay-n
4 kcMmiac. (2)
145I X* **
tippt* 5-22: Irrigation demand (Option C - high), available flow, and «urp)Ul
at right bank diversion weir for low, medium and high irrigation a*, (Halcrow - GIRD rule S3)
Upper Betel flow at right bank drveraion weir (865 km )
2
mgaOori area 25,000 ha
2
Upper Betel flow at right bank diversion weir (865 km ) irrigation area 65.000 ha
I Fb !«4 SrOli U'jtcr Rrworcrr (2)
H6figure 5-23: Irrigation demand (Option C - high), avwlaMe flow, md ,urph,. Md defici| at right bank diversion weir for low, medium and high irrigation area (SMEC rote S2-B)
1
Upper Betes flow at right bank drvernon weir (865 km )
•mgabon area 25.000 ha
8
£
i _j How at dlwrvKNi weir (NaburW) =J AwllaMe Bow si dMnlon wif
-»*- Surplus A Deficit
— ■ dam and
J
Upper Betas flow at right bank dtverston weir (865 km ) Irrigation area 65.000 ha
Flow el d^Mkori (Naurai) C=3 AwMWjIs Bow at dhwnton weir
I_
Surplus & (Mot
------ VMWsr dwwd
Upper Rates How at nght bank diversion weir (865 km )
2
imgation area 85 000 ha
iVSbr-n
147li&fu. Stewfn <w^rr(^/:*np
iatoftn Nli
AJ ^HT P>w*f
Gariy. for a Luge area of lmgibon (more than about 65-70.000 ha) there
in the Enit Ikies ris er dunng three deficit months from February to April,
0
rttjutrrd to meet imgauon demands. 'Die deficit in these months is greater whj "*
at the drsenxtn weir is based on hydropower releases using the SMEC opera 7 ”rKe^
than using the Halcrow - GIRD operational rule (S3). 
Table 5-28 and
Table 5-29 abow the area of irrigation development that is possible before storage is
and when stooge is needed the volume of live storage, and the associated height of dim, required io meet irrigation demand Tabic 5 28 is based on hydropower releases if the lUlcm
• GIRD operational rule (S3) is adopted and
Table 5-29 if the SMEC operational rule is adopted (S2-B).
Table 5-28 and Table 5-29 indicate that storage is only required in the Enat Beles river for irrigation development areas exceeding about 65-70.000 ha (SMEC rules) and about 5.000 h (Halcrow - GIRD rules) for Options A, B and C.
Storage is required for Option D (Maximum estimate) for irrigation development area exceeding 50.000 ha (SMEC rule) and about 65.000 ha (Halcrow - GIRD rules). Option D
epresents the maximum demand possible in the project area resulting from 1 (MJ* • sugirca* but 15 not envisaged is . viable scenano nor U it recommended
Table S-28 dearly shows if the Halcrow - GIRD operaoonal rule is adopted a larger area of
■rogation can be desdoped before storage on the Enat Boles nver is needed compared to the SMEC operational rule is adopted More water u available for diversion to the conviurd area when the Halcrow operation rule u adopted because under these rules lugher flows are released between ihe months of January to April when tmgauon demands peak.
”**
1*b PM SrOla Water Rr*<urce*
148
JJ.'w"re
Irrigation Option A
lor
/ /rr^pnoi / area
, 
nri^jiiiun uutl
ca i^i laicrow
ra /
2.9159 tule 1,784.75 maal S3)
I Irrigation I demand 1 (Sept-Jun)
Irrigation Option B
IfnruUon Option C
/ Lire a tonage
/ Dam
1 height
Irrigation
demand
Lave
•torage
Dam
height
Irrigation
demand
(Sep (-Jun)
Lave
storage
Dam
height
Irrigation
demand
(Sept-Jun)
tu»n Option D
Live
storage
D*m
height
lL *•
/ Mm’
1T
Mm’
Mm’
m
Mm*
Mm*
tn
/ 15.000
Mm*
204
1 0
0
230
0
0
252
0
0
289
1 25.000
340
I2
0
383
0
0
419
0
0
482
/ 50.000
680
£
0
766
0
0
836
0
■0
965
1 60,000
816
0
0
919
0
0
1.007
0
.-
0
1.158
65,000
884
0
0
996
0
0
1,091
0
0
1.254
70,000
952
0
0
1,072
0
0
1.174
0
0
1.351
75.000
1.020
3
14
1,149
0
0
1.258
8
21
1.447
80.000
1.088
15
27
1,226
5
18
1.341
25
32
1.5S4
85.CXK)
1.156
33
36
1.302
30
35
1.426
50
42
1.640
90.000
1.224
58
44
1.379
54
43
1.510
82
51
1,730
B)
Irrigation
area
Irrigation Option A
Irrigation Option B
Irrigation Option C
Irrigation Option D
Irrigation
demand
(Sept-Jun)
Live
storage
Dam
height
Irrigation
demand
(Sept-Jun)
Live
storage
Dam
height
Irrigation
demand
(Sepi-Jun)
Live
storage
Dam
height
Irrigation
demand
(Sept-Jun)
Live
storage
Dam
height
ha
Mm*
Mm*
m
Mm’
Mm*
m
Mm*
Mm*
u>
Mm*
Mm*
m
15,000
204
0
0
230
0
0
252
0
0
289
0
0
25.000
340
0
0
383
0
0
419
U
0
482
0
0
50.000
680
0
0
766
0
U
836
0
0
965
5
18
1 60.000
816
0
0
919
0
0
1.007
u
0
1.158
39
38
1 65.000
884
0
0
996
0
0
1.091
9
22
I.2M
56
44
70.000
952
12
24
1072
8
21
1.174
29
34
1.351
98
54
1 75.000
1020
35
37
1149
39
38
l >58
67
47
1.447
142
62
1 KO.(XK)
1088
60
45
1226
75
49
1.341
104
56
1554
186
69
H5.0O0
1156
84
51
1302
110
57
1.426
142
62
1.640
239
7ft
1 90.000
1224
116
58
1379
146
63
1 1 i
IMS
69
1.730
305
84
Uh !*• StOU U iter RewmrccB (2)
13 Mat IIEtntfun N’«i *•* I^'***' f^m'1
Deads of the monthly long tern average surplus and deficit balance from Jmuary loj accumulative volume of live’ storage for a range of irrigation areas for low, mahum
irrigation dudes are provided in Annex N1 for flow releases based on the HaJerow G]Rb operational rule, and in Annex N2 based on the SMEC operational rule (1,784 7j
Where water deliveries in the Beles river at the diversion fall short of requirements for,
month crop impact is relatively minor However if water deliveries fall shoo of require^
for two or more consecutive months extensive crop failure can be expected. Annex Nltj
Annex N2 provide Mure rates for vinous areas of irrigation development
Figure 5-24 and Figure 5-25 show the relationship between irrigation area, live storage apao and dam height for the Halcrow and SMEC operational rules respectively. Findings fromdx soils Ac land suitability mapping indicate that a gross area of 65-70,000 ha of land suitable for irrigated agncuJrurr tn the Upper Beles project area. This is about 50% of the total project rs of about 136,000 ha. However much of the suitable land is concentrated in the Derebajr and Werk .Meda plains leaving extensive areas, particularly on rhe left bank, where the proporooo r( lmgablc land lo gross area is less than 30-35%. In such locations irrigation development out not be viable- Assuming the net irngablc area does not exceed about 65,000ha then (assuming the SMEC or preferably Halcrow operating rules were applied) no storage on the Enat Beles over is required even with high-end irrigation duties.
Uh JM SaOla Water Rrwurcrt (2)
150rje
,'-”v
r
Figure 5-24: Totalirrigation demand, Kve» ttomge, dam height (Hakrow - GIRD rule) Mak row Ruto-OpVon A
Irrigation Area. M
f kncabon Demand —^UwSlorao* ----------- Dam Hptfit I
Hale row Rule- Option B
Hilcrow Rufo- OpBon C
lW ^rR
I KM* 11
' R«ourc«(2)
151* r|r'" ** *”
r
B
Ht-rw X* /"»«*• V™**
Hi I crow Rule- Option 0
Irrigation Area. ha
I - ~ - knqalion Demand —J Live Stored
_________
HyqhtJ
("b !•< SfOla Wafer Rcviurre* (2)
152..
tfPJbif*.
rjf,r Ef"V
Fiprr* 5-25; Tmil imp,,en demand, live’ ■tongr, and dam height (SMEC mkj SMEC fad* (1714.75 mart ) - Opion A
trrigjrtlan Ar**, hl I t— krogt ion Demand C33? LM Sloraoe
SMEC Rulo (1714.75 mirt) - Option B
-—DamHejahTlW**' RfM. *
.M/ittfn rf'ITjf/r c*" Eftr#
Ijfafm .Vii
/a/ f>n*af* Pn^f
I’b H SrOla U >!rr Kctnurcc* (2)
IM1
Maintenance /planr failure* of the Tana-Bdcs hydropower plant such is tunnel collapse , then ^jthour any storage in the Enat Bcles then: could be extensive crop failure m the command irc2 Provision of a storage dam on the Enat Bdcs would (partly) mingatr against this.
por example, for the envisaged Upper Bdcs (excluding Hyma) net irrigation area of 63.8’0 ha then live storage of 203 Mm’ fie dam option A with FSL of 1.405) is equivalent to a delta of
0 32 m and would meet dry season crop water requirements for about 5-6 weeks lh» would provide securin' to farmer* in event that upstream hydropower release* are not as expected for what ever reason
long term irrigation development envisages about 10-20,000 ha being developed in rhe adjacent Hyma nver catchment as well as about 85,000 ha in the Lower Bdcs. see Section 5.21. The justification and costs of the Enat Bdcs Stonge dam could perhaps, in part, be justified as pari of these later irrigation developments.
The estimates of storage requirements given in this Chapter are based on the long term average surplus and deficit balance for a given irrigation development area. Detailed reservoir simulation modelling is used to test scheme failure rate against a criterion of success based on the number of consecutive months when irrigation demands remains unmet tn order to more accurately determine storage requirements. This is discussed in the following Chapter 6.
Irrigation development in Lower Belen catchment
The BCEOM phase 3 Master plan Study estimated that about 85,000 ha could be irrigated in the Lower Bdcs catchment. The studv identified a suitable location for a dam on the Lower Bdes over it Dingur which is downstream of the confluence of the Enat Bdes river with the Udgcl Be les, see Figure 5-26. The Dangur dam location has an approximate upstream catchment area of 8,980 km . The dam would be a large dam developed for hydropower generating about 98 MW/year and have a storage capacity about 4.640 Mm’ to supply water for “ngatiun (BCEOM, 1999).
2
Untamed m the event of pUni (turbine, err} mnntoijncc
13-Miy-II
155hdrr* 
l-jfaeui Xii /^uf*< at Pnr«<r P^t
Mrtttfn tflT+'rr cw /• <hjj
Figirn 5-26: Location of Dangur dam site for Lower Belos
irrigation area Water for ltora#c darn at Dangur is required to do elop the Lou’er
f/orn surplus water oot dne °f
^ases combining with nanZL
mcr at
7 Us
 tJangur (8,98o km- ) which ^°
’null er Upper Heirs catchnLn i'
•'' 2. alio shows the umc 0,0,1
0
’urplm water not diverted^ °p
dle IjOWcr Bdcs scheme could possibly be supplied
f °r Uppcr Mcs fad Hj’ma) *om hydropower
5-27 shows the natural flow of die Bries ^ cr ^an the natural flow contributed from the
n ^ diversion weir (865 km ) HfV* UT,uJd 50 w«'ed ar Dangur from upstream
lt
7
hvdropow^ felc
? tPPCr Bdc’ comma”d area of 50,000 ha. based on ng me Halcrow - GIRD mle
W>
c»(2)
156
r j-Ah*Flow volume (Mrrf)
5-27: Beta® rivet flow at Dangur dam and contribution fitvm Upper Betas catchment (50 000 ha)
s
J’lgurr 5-28 show rhe long term average monthly flows for the Enat Betas river at Dangur
under natural conditions and with supplemented flow* received from up*trajn from surplus water delivered to rhe Upper Betas command area (ir. 50,000 ha) with live storage of 333 Mm'
at the upper Bdcs dam site.
Figure 5-28: Monthly Betas flow at Dangur dam with and without upstream Upper Betas Scheme operating for 50JXX) ha (Halcrow - GIRD rule)
Betas river al Dangur Dam
rtver a D&&J (tarn {i®* Anrtad tor 50. DCQhai
-2;
!M1« Tl
157/**•=.
f>MpMv ATi
af'E/tapra. Mrtufn ^'U j' /rr <*• /:*f»p
Partly .p*w.f
Tabic 5-30 shows the mean and minimum available flow at Dangur dunng lanuary lo , winJd be available for diversion to the command area in the ^crBelesThcEnatB^ at Dangur in this table are a combination of upstream natural flows and any surplus n, i* water from the Upper Bcles project area assuming firstly, a net irrigation area of SO.OOQi^ secvndlv. a net irrigation area of 80,000 ha , with a live storage of 333 Mm> (Gross 37g t Dim Site —
Table 5-30: Volume of Beles flow at Dangur dam site (Jan - Apr) with Upper Befei commanded to 50,000 ha and 80,000 ha and 333Mm of storage at Dam urr 2
:r
3
1
Beks How at Dangur dam site (Mm ) for Jan - Apr
rule
Beks
Irrigation
area (ha)
Natural
Option A
Option B
Op hoc C
Mean
Min
Mean
Min
Mean
Min
Mean
Mi
Hakrow
50.000
SMEC
50,000
19
19
10
10
120
S7
91
70
118
88
94
75
JO6 _
79
4J
47
Hakrow
SMEC
80.000
61
25
41
80.000
19
19
10
10
42
22
55
38
33
23
28
24
11
Table 5-30 shows that more water is delivered to the Dangur if the Hakrow - GIRD rule is
adopted compared to the SMEC rule in the dry season months of January to March Lew ”-B is delivered at Dangur for irngauon if the higher irrigation duties (Option Q arc used to
estima^ legation demand in the Upper Bcles command area Water delivered from upstru®
would reduce if the irrigation area was larger than 50.000 ha in Upper Bcles and if Hvnu «' developed.
The results suggest that about 110 Mm1 would be available for the critical month* .
n ri tllis VOlOtfi* Apnl. The required crop delta (at diversion point) would be about 0.9 m, ana
would be sufficient to lmgatc an area of about 12,000 ha, much less than rhe enviM Bcles development of 8S.000 ha
The envisaged Upper Bclc,
develop the ensisagcd Lower Bek. . I '
Canary 
' hc nccd for 1 dim
c,ne M« of about 85,000 ha, as well as for generating
A companion of natural catchment area and stage-storage characteristics of the props’^ sites for Upper Bcles and for Louer Bcles (ar Dangur) is tabulated below, Table 5-3’ Damgur dam can store about sa times more water for a comparable dam height, and has » catchment area about 16 times larger, than the Upper Bcles dam site. The comparabie advantage of the Dangur dam site indicates that it « not economic of financially sensible r«» provide (significant) storage in Upper Bcles for the Louer Bcles irrigation scheme.
11> 14 SrOb U *frr Rcmkiccc* (2)
158.
‘f rat,r &
Dna*# fyF*
T Me Mt Ch«r»L"'"" * °
c
Dam
Dam Site Upper fcJ" Dim S*" 2
f of t'PP*r 4 I-Ower tkfc‘
Natural Catchment
1
Area (km )
Dam Height
(FSL-BL) teL
Grow Stonge
(M»»)
590
90
378
4>mSgeOption Q______________ 1<owef Bries dim site (Dangur)’ Now • BCEOM Rqxxf phase 2)
90
1200
8,980
no 3,6W
l,Cr tatMMce, (2)
159IS*1*
RESERVOIR SIMULATION
O^fn on B<k* rivtl fof UPP* Schema DmJopment
r
Four dlfT1 sifcs wcfC cva,UJ,tcd and Si,c 2 *“ dccrncd rnwt suitable (refer Feasibility Study
Rcpcrr. Engineering: Storage Dam Dam site 2 is located on the Enat Ikies river downstream
o f the Tana-Beks hydropower station tunnel which outflows to the Jehana over The locaonn
of this dam site avoids inundating the outfall runnel and is upstream of the right bank diversion aT|f currently under construction, at (near) the location where the left bank main canal would offtake The elevation-storage characteristics for this dam are shown below on Figure 6-1. and the storage volume to reservoir area relationship is shewn on Figure 6-2
Figure 6-1: Elevation - Storage Characteristic for Dam Site 2
d
es
'
C darn M,C tjlcrc
,
« number dam options and the characters tics of each option is
Mm" d 111 I ,tlc 61 C)P6on A/B would be a medium sued dun with a gross storage of 230
'V
" " *P*Uway crest level at 1,405 nusL There is a saddle on the left bank at election
h
IJ-Mx-tt
161L/A<v« .W 
iboul
* E/fofU. Misufn f/ITttrr <> Eanp
l'r**i
>1,420 nusl whxh hw the potcntnl to be a spillway. One option would k f ,
0
imDwv to be set >t +1.420 nusl which would give a gross storage volume of
th»ZcooMdered Opoon C.Table 6-1 Hus is considered bkcly Io be dose to the
hmrt for a dam constructed at this location, unless the saddle itself is bunded
Option D it the dam site is a Diversion Weir / Dam which is capable of commanding i Left Bank (num canal FSL 1,355 mail at head) and storing 24 hrs of the hydropower fba (T7rn’/s), which equates to 6.6 Mm' The dam therefore has .MDL of 1,356 nusl (toenn^ the left bank canal) and a FSL of 1360 masl. Table 6-1.
Table 6-L Upper Belea dam options and characteriatica
Item
Units
Option
A/B
Option C
Option D
Rem arki
Full supply level (FSL)
masl
1.405
1,420
1,360
Gross reservoir storage
Mm'
230
378
20
Rnenw Arts at FSL
km2
8.4
11.6
1.7
—
Minimum area for
cnvtronmeni
km2
2.1
2-9
0.4*
25% of area II FSL
Minimum drawdown level
mas!
1,364
1.371
1,356
For environment *
Storage it .MDL
Mm’
27
45
14*
Reservoir Area at MDL
km-
2.1
3.0
1-2
(tperaoonaJ range
m
41
49
4
FSL • MDL __
Reservoir area fluctuation
km2
Seasonal (opoo^
63
8.6
0.5
Lrve storage
Mm’
203
333
6
Gross sror^e
■
Lrve storage is depth over
m
0.32
0 52
0.01
kogable
6,2
Purpose of Reservoir Wstcr Bakner
Reservoir water balance sunulaoon was earned out to: levels of
• Determine the required storage of a dam on Enit Belcs m er for d irrigation development,
• Determine the reservoir capacity and size (haght) of the dam. and
• Assist in formulation of operation (water release) rules / guidelines.
Reservoir simulation is used to assess the behaviour of the reservoir
level* °f
vi viababiilliitty of y of a d a damam an andd r reesseerrvoi voirr on on t thhee E Ennat at B BcclJcc* ove s riverr t to so suupppporort u.--------------------------------------
development in the Upper Belcs
catchment
project area and potentially in the adjacent Hyma (Dip
lib F4 SfOla U aier Rncmrtet (2)
1624
joih and land suitability survey for Upper Beles indicate a maximum imgable uea of up to >bout 65-70,000 ha , but a proportion of this is unlikely to be viable to develop as tn some xreas. pirticularh’ on the left bank, the proportion of suitable land to gross area is just 30-33%. The Hyma (Upper Dindir) command' takes off from the nght bank canal at Fendilu and may have an imgable area of about 20.000 ha.
If □pennon rules for basin transfers from Lake Tana to the Enat Beles arc adhered to then development of a net imgable area of 65-70.000 ha (SMEC rules) and about ’5,000 ha (Halcrow - GIRD rules) is possible without a dam. Flower, the provision of some storage for the Upper Beles (and I lyma) project area would provide assurance of suppl)’ for a few weeks in the dry season in extreme dry period or if diversions from 1-ake Tana are not as planned
Reservoir simulation involves the modelling of the water balance of the reservoir. The water balance model is used to examine the spillage (excess) and shortages (deficit) of water in the simulated record as well as unmet irrigation and ocher demands The penods / duntaons of unmet water demand is used as the criterion of success for estimating the optimal storage capacity Analysis is based on a flow stmulauon senes from 1980 - 2006 for the Beles nver at the location of Dam Site 2 and diversion to the left bank main canal fie. 590 km’ a
combination of Tana-Beles hydropower releases from the \VEAP model ind flow estimates from the natural catchment.
Water released from the dam would be diverted to the left bank main canal by a draw off tower or other arrangement, with the balance (including flow to be diverted downstream at the nght bank diversion weir) released back to the nver. Environmental flow consideradoos are therefore not considered at the dam / left bank diversion site. However consideration of environmental flows downstream of the nght bank diversion weir is required.
Failure cntem for use in the reservoir water balance simulations have been formulated to determine the maximum net irrigation area for vinous crop combinations. These failure catena
IJ-Mxy-HFriirrW R/paie. * 
Alzaufn tf ITjtrr Cu E: arp
Etf*c*n Xdt l~^af*a aai l\aaq? Awer
Tabk 6-1 Failure events and Reservoir Simulation Criteria
Nr
FaDnre
Event
Description
I Monthly Water deliveries fall short of
Failures
optimum causing crop losses
dur to water stress ind loss in
potential yield.
Where water deliveries fall short
of retjuircment for a single
month in the dry season the
crop impact will be minor, and
can be mitigated bv operating
rules whereby priority for supply
is given to small holders over
the commercial sugar estate.
Measurement of Failure
_________ Event
A failure event occurs for
each (single ind consecutive)
month the reservoir is empty
(te. water level reaches rhe
minimum opera Ung level).
,Mr>ntWTfi^
both tuner
“bnletffa^
nupr
e.g.: If the reservoir is empty and severe crop
for a total of 62 single and /
or consecutive months over
44 yean (528 months), the
failure rate is 11.7%.
Finial
crop
failures
Water deliveries fall short of
optimum for two or more
consecutive months causing
extensive but moderate crop
losses due to water stress and
loss in potential yield, despite
mitigation measures including
reduction of irrigation supplies
pirticuladv to the commercial
sugu estate.
ocean
No cnteni hrfiKr
for montMv fakrafe
they inform trtorr
when minpcaj nt=
operation mens
JQ^bc insuptfd _
Partial crop fsih®31
, moderate*’*006
tnancui trnpx^
The santd*000*’**1
rhe failure**^
17%
Extensive
crop
tail urn
Water deliveries fall short of
optimum for three or more
consecutive months causing
extensive and severe crop losses
due to water stress and loss in
potential yield, despite
mmgauon measures including
reduction of irrigation supplies
pamculaxly to the commercial
sugar estate.
A partial crop failure event
occurs each time the
reservoir is empty (lc. water
level reaches the minimum
operating level) for two or
more consecutive months
eg: If the reservoir is empty
three times for 2-months or
more over 44 yean (dry
seasons), the failure tare if
6 8% _________________________
An extensive crop failure
event occurs each time the
reservoir is empty (i.c wafer
level reaches the minimum
operating level) for three or
more consecutive months.
eg.: If the reservoir is empty
two times for 3-months or
more over 44 yeare (dry
seasons), the failure rare is
4 5% 
Af extensive crop^
have a severe
and hnanoal imp#*- affecutiff bveliho^ ? aUowahle fiuiuft f* 3 ten than for par'd
fadurri.
(b4
. failure «»»e
12%
Ub F4 SrOU tt'arrr Rr^a<rcr« (7)
164
l»M«’ ''. 
Atiwty tflTdrrr <** F.^
fascfvtrff Operation Modelling
&J
fejerVOi/ water balance model for a potential dam on the Edit Beles nver has been setup in
f cd to represent the dam, reservoir and command area to examine reservoir bchavnur and
5 the water resource availability. Hie reservoir simulation model uses an approach outhoed b- Chm* G ®)* When the srorage capacity of the reservoir « fixed* the water balance w patten follows:
ct 98
X = X . I + (J2~ @ea/z-D~{[P-Ea\A}~Sp')&
Storage i° die reservoir ar the beginning of the month is denoted as St -1, and St is the storage
a r the end of the month- For reservoir simulation a monthly time step t is set and units are in Mm-'. The reservoir simulation is run for a 27 year rime series from 1 *>80 to 2006. This period demonstrates a pattern of typical natural variability with extreme dry/drought years and significant wet years. Inflow into the reservoir from the Bdes river upstream is represented by Q. The Belts river upstream of the proposed dam site is ungauged and natural monthly flows have been estimated as described in Chapter 2 with monthly flow releases from the hydropower nation prosided from the VC ILA P model simulations,
Spilling occurs if Si is larger than die reservoir capacity and shortage occurs if & is smaller than the dead storage (Le. storage volume set aside for sediment infilling). The actual rdcasc D from the dam downstream is ecjual to the target release, minus the shortage, plus any spillage The target release is the release rate from the reservoir required to meet irrigation and environmental demands
Other losses include the small, bur constant, leakage from beneath the reservoir into the bedrock (0.2 m /s). Losses and/or gains also occur from net evaporation represented by the rerm (P-Ea); where P is precipitation falling over the reservoir and E> u the open water evaporation from the reservoir Evaporation data for Pawe climate station was corrected for
J
U4ln
g a upen water coefficient of 1 1 to estimate Ea The surface area ot the reservoir A (km ) »
2
crisis red from the storage-area relationship for the dam site* Figure 6-2 The water level tn the restnoif I J changes with changing storage The storage-deva fieri relationship is shown on
igurc 6-1 The following equations describe this relationship:
Area = 0,27608 Water Uve/ = 9.529772
L> *■ M‘”J- (19M) Appfcd Hydrnhw (McGo-lW
1 ’Jr
:,4| urcci (2)
iJ-Miy-tl
165It*** 
Mnum af Fjrrr c* £anj|
Lrtfwi Nii /"vu>r« aW Pnr^r Aipftf
IKr Jim. reservoir. spiDwiy and water demand characteristics used in th are summimed tn Table 6-3.
C ^^otr
Table 6-3 Charartcriatica for Dam rite 2 reservoir and adopted water demand
Reservoir, spillway* and demand characteristics
Qima re:
Total annual rainfall
Im
Total annual evaporation
— —------------- ---
152-
Inflow:
Catchment area
5«c>
Total annual inflow*
329a Ms
Mean monthly inflow
2?3to
Reservoir:
Sediment volume (50 year design life)
15 to
Minimum operating level to preserve flora Ac fauna
73 to
Dead storage
21 to
Total Annual leakage beneath rcicrvoir
63 to
Sediment
.Mean annual volume of sediment influx
0.30 5te’
Total sediment influx
IS Mm*.
Spillway:
__ —
Na rural ground level above upstream toe of Dam
Option A/B
Option C 1320^
<> non DIM"
?
1
U) -l20jn
Spillway lengths (crest widths considered
Adopted Water demand-
__Nct imgahon area considered (commercial plus smallholder farms)
75.OUO - 90000 “
1,350®?-
Gross annual irrigation demand. Option A {low-end esrimare
Gross annual iinp’i demand < >pn"f. Bjmid-cnd estimate
Gross annual irrigation demand: ()pnon C (high-end estimate Total annual environmental demand d/s of diversion weir
]j70®®.
-- ---------’ jjM?'
2?cad ttortge
Frmn recreation, reservoir environment (and fishery) considerations the reservoir water I thould not tat] below the minimum operating (dead storage) level Ulis minimum opening level is set from considerations of
Lx peered sediment volume accumulation within the reservoir over the design h e
the dam. and
A minimum level to preserve environment flora and fauna (including fish) through the year, after allowing for sediment accumulation.
Table 6-4 shows the total sediment volume
Umsted at the dam site over a 50 year hie
fof fcportccl m (h
e
canned umhr dx 
upended sedime.■ * • 
fof t!lf tpF
Basin from the Mister Plan. A suspended srdim
Beks catchment.
t *b I *'4 SrOli Wafer Rei<»urcc« (2)
160
UAW-1'^4- Toul pediment volume at dam location! along the Upper Beks river uiing
T*bk
r«rim»te of impended lediment bid
SlMpeade<J
pediment
t/lonVyr)
Sediment
I»ad
Yean
Bed
load
Total
•edimeai
load
Demiryof
«/«
^L
(•)
(MoP)
324,500
50
10
17,847,500
12
MJ
The minimum operating level of the reservoir is firstly dictated by totaJ «dnnent volume KCumulation over its design life and also the mrnimum level set to preserve envtmnment flora and fauna fmduding fish). For the environment it is suggested to maintain a mintmum reservoir depth of about 4 m through-out the year over at least 25% of the reservotr area Suggested dead itorage volumes for each dam option ire tabulated in Table 6-1.
<5 Target rckties
The target release or the rate of release from the reservoir is primarily determined by the waler requirements (demands) of irrigated agriculture. The tool waler demands for the (surface) irrigation development have been estimated using CROPWAT (version 8) for net imgible command areas varying from 15,000 ha to 90,000 ha. The Upper Beks protect area will have managed irrigation areas for commercial farms with areas of mixed crop and sugar as well as smallholder farms. Three options for estimating irrigation demand are used to estimate irrigation duties Option z\ (Low), Option B (medium), and Option C (high) as described m Section 519. The monthly imgirion duties used for the Upper Beks command area have
rircady been presented in Table 5-26
The monthly reservoir sunuhnon used 2? vein of flow din (torn 1980 to 2006. 
°»
deminds for of i net ungible commind ire* virymg 
up to 90.000 ha. For the dam site the reservoir operating model
capacities. Scheme failure rale based on the number of consecutive
demands remained unmet was used as the entenon of success,ft tf
tinge of «onge
IMinoo
*
u vc| or below
_,.nng
deemed to have faded if the reservoir water level tills to (he minimum ‘’P** *^
1
~
11 any time during the month. The failure catena appt) 1
. — rko fnllowuw failure events.
monthly failure (li) partial crop failure; and (ill) extensive crop failure-
Urnns arc set A Monthly failures often have little effect on crop proAi^00* reaches the
'Jpentrang , level for wo consecutive months, m"d L ■»» « »“*'"
atemrve crop fulurc event occur each tune the level for three or more coosecuttve tno«h».
These vilues ue idjusted up**"* > ^•ine water demand cm not be met for 2 vein • f
5
c Mtcf reiches the nuoj»®
^ulinon wn
? , respect^
in the 27 J'4"
s
result P«veotu^ J 
a
«’here ire extreme dry vein
drought y«n * 
be needed
a «ena betng met with sensible stonge p«w»xm.» <^ * 
The percentages of partial and extensne crop
oVCf the 2
li-Miyll
167Sii 1-1-** v^^r l^’
simulation period are presented in Table 6-5 and Table 6-6 for upstream f)oW Hakxvw and SMEC rules, respectively
Table 6-5: Scheme failure rates at Dam site 2 (Hakrow - GIRD operational rule Pm
moD
L’b IM SK*!i W«irr Rwourre* (21
168—t'*’-****
EM**'
Imf00”
Inir""0
option
Dead
Storage
(Mm’)
Reaervotr Storage
5
(Mm )
Monthly
failure
rale
M
Gwueaiiwf 2 months
failure rate r-)
Comecutht
3 month*
failure rate
(%)
SttCCCM
cntma
22
40
11%
11%
11%
Yea
0
0
89%
86%
11%
No
22
50
11%
11%
11%
Yea
22
175
11%
11%
11%
Ya
0
0
95%
95%
11%
No
22
70
11%
11%
11%
Yea
22
175
11%
11%
11%
Yes
0
0
95%
95%
11%
No
22
70
11%
11%
11%
Yea
22
175
11%
11%
11%
Yes
0
0
95%
95%
75%
No
22
70
95%
64%
11%
No
22
90
14%
11%
11%
Yea
22
175
11%
11%
11%
Yes
** RrV)UKcj (2)
169F .dm. 
C*- Etip
Nw Inr^5*’ ^>r»c<r
Table 6-6: Scheme failure rates at Darn site 2 (SMEC operational rule 17*4 7£
Irrigation
Dead
Storage
(Mw>)
Reservoir
Storage
(Mm’)
Monthly
failure
Consecutive
2 months
failure rate
^°o>ecutiTe
months
failure rate
25.000
65,000
Uh F4 SfOh Water Rrwnjrco (2)
noimr600
•re*
(*>
Irrigsboo
opdoo
Dead Storage
1
(Mm )
Reservoir
Storage
1
(Mm )
Monthly
failure
rate
Q)
Consecutive
2 months
failure rate
r»)
Consecutive
failure me
(%)
Success
ratified
22
450
18%
14%
7%
Yes
B
C
22
175
32%
29%
29%
No
22
500
18%
14%
7%
Yes
22
175
32%
29%
26%
No
22
550
18%
14%
7%
Yes
A
0
175
32%
29%
25%
No
22
500
18%
14%
7%
Yea
B
0
175
32%
29%
25%
No
m.unn
22
550
18%
14%
7%
Yea
C
0
175
32%
29%
29%
No
22
600
18%
14%
7%
Ye.
(Note bold iodicafc< crncru u met;
Storage requirement on the Enat Belts river is summarised in fable 6-7 and Table 6-8 and shown on Figure 6-3 and Figure 6-4 If the I lalcrow • GIRD operational rule is adopted a larger area of irrigation can be developed before storage on the Belts river is needed compared to if the SMEC operational rule* (1'84.75 mas!) arc adopted, Table 6-7. Also, when storage is needed the requirements arc much less compared to those requirements based on the SMEC operational rule. Table 6 8.
Results indicate that no storage is required for an imganon area of 75,000 ha in the I pper Be les Hyma project area if the Halcrow - GIRD operational rule is adopted 1-arger storage is
required when the demand is estimated using the higher irrigation duties. The highest total fctoss reservoir storage on the Bries river required is 90 Mm' for 90,000 ha for Option C (high). For maximum demand Option D, storage is required for an irrigation area exceeding 60,000 ha *nd a total gross storage of 190 Mm' is required for 90,000 ha of 100% sugarcane
•f the SMEC rules (1784.75 mail) are used storage on the Enat Beks over is required ar 50.000 f° ‘rrigations demand options. At this level of imganon the storage requirement is about
r
1 5 Mm* OpUon C (high demand) Above 50.000 ha of imganon development the storage tenient increases rapidly as follows (for Option C: high end demand):
525 Mm' for 65.000 ha;
425 Mm* for 75 Qoo ha; and
550 M
m i for 85 000 ha
(Soo for ,hc rap,d “ae“ «
e
on, Re«,o smai1 n,turd °'chnien' “,hc dim $,tc
) «nd the average annual runofr is just 311 Mm - It is also worth noting that the (ZrUTn s,Orl8 « the dam site is hkelv to be about 300-4W Mm'. Storage requirements for
5
e
b dcmand) maximura storage abwc 63-°°°hl of l'ng’non
P°*nt, and 650 Mm' of storage is needed for 85,000ha
13-Mapll
171Frdma’ Dcwwrnft.
N/iir /rrigjftM J*/ Pr^<gr P*waT
af ITarrr <y F
rial rule I7M.7S
.GIRD O rational nw------------------- -t
fable 6-7: Storage requirement for different arcai of irrigation for medium
. — T r~“ 
Irrigation
area
r— 
ation Option A
Grata
Irrigation
demand
storage
Mm1
Irrigation
demand
(Scpt-Jimj
Mm'
Groat
storage '
Mm1
B_ Dam
height
Jr^gjrion Option C
Irrigation Option
Gros*
storage
Dam
height
ha
15.000_
25.000
50.000
65,000
75.000
80,000
Itrig
Irrigation
demand
.^1^2
Mm'
_
Irrtg*
TSgition demand
' 289
482
965
"’MM
1.447
don c>pt>on»:
Grots
storage
Dam
height 1
Mm'
0
mI
0
0
0
40
75
0
0
39
49
57
1.5M
1.020
1,226
1302
1.379
to .
1.258
1,342
1,426
I.5W
„.<U^, ■.«>
t.640
HO
150
64
1.730
190
70
pMEC
mtenM^Smol S2-B)
Ta
Irrigation
area
L
blc 6-8: Mor Irrir
Irrigation demand (Sept-Juaj
Mm*
age require
ation Oprior
Gross
storage
mcni iui
A
Dam
height
irri;
Irriga
Irrigation demand
(Sept-Jun)
lion Option
Graaa
storage
B
Dam
height
Irrigari Irrigation '
demand (Sept-Jun)
cm Option C
Gross
storage
Dam
height
Irnga Irrigation
demand (Sept-Jun)
non upuun
Groat
storage
Dam
height
uaa
15000
25.000
50,000
Mm*
m
Mm*
Mm1
m
Mm'
Mm'
m
Mm'
Mm1
tn
204
340
680
0
0
75
0
0
49
230
0
0
383
0
766
75
0
0
49
252
419
836
0
L_ 0
100
0
55
289
482
965
0
0
175
0
0
68
65.000
75,000
80.000
85,000
90.000
884
1,020
1.088
1,156
1224
MX)
83
88
93
996 300
___ 81
1.091 325
86
350
350
1,149 [ 400 V W
95
575
86
106
400
1226 r 425 r 95
101
625
110
o*>
7
1302 7 500 I 101
104
650
1- ’ 1 500 \ 101
1379 \ 550 1 104
1.258 1 425
1342 , 500
1.426 1 550
1310 | 600
108
1.254
1.447
1.554
1.640
1.730
750
111
118OraHJf*
6-3: Irriga<i°n demand, gross storage, and dam height (Hafcrow Ha I crow Rufe- Opfon A
GIRD rule)
Irrigation Arwa. ha I imo*t>on Pemarxj lz i Ln* Storage
Cr (2)
BMiv-il
17.3N<* !"»*«« P***' /^"f
Haterow Rula- Option 0
IOC
•0
•0
70 6 60
50
40 I
30 20 10
0
Irrigation Area. ha
1 irTtaition Omind c_^2 Lhe Slorw —lPptl ^o'lO
VbH&Ohtt
•■Iff Rrwiqr^ £)
174^4- Irrigation demand, groM 'forage, and dam height (SMEC rule 1784.75 mul) SMEC Rule (1754.75 med )-Option A
| : Vimoatny Demark____________r~p tlW §tOTW —Pfn HWttZ) SMEC Rule (1714.75 maM) . Option B
irri0Mlon Area, he
i_—lasgugn Pffnaod — Li* Storne.-------------- :— P*™ !•*«£!—1 SMEC Ruf. (1714.78 matf) - Option C
IkMn-H
(2)
175t
ffU ~a"r
v . ImSM <•* !>*•<* /V^r
L’b l '4 SrOta U'arcr Rrwiurrc* (2)
176W /'^* " *-"*><•*
n
reservoir flood attenuation and outflow
Introduction
Hood routing of design floods through a reservoir 8 required to
the flood hydrograph and importantly to estimate the length of
designed such that the largest expected flood can pass without w endangrnng the structure. The spillway width (or length b chedied against overtopping using the PMF flood This desbn flJlT” 
,n «u»Ooo of
' ’plflu'’T for » dam n
,hm
resersoir for a given spdhwy crest level. width of the spdka7and rU ™,“‘th'°UKh ,hc
ums cn neld the maximum wafer level above the rr«r f a .. 
flood.
Estimation of Yr PMF
f th€ SptHu^ du™K the passage of the
°
anaMn
2
The PMF hydrograph is generated from the PMP (i.c. 365 mm) using the Clark method tn the rainfall runoff models in HEC-HMS hydrological model built for the Upper Bdes n cr baun at the location of Dam Site 2 (560 km ) rhe ’/a PMF is estimated as 50% of the PMF giving a flood peak flow of 1,938 mV* at Dam Site 2. The '/i PMF hydrograph is generated by taking 50% of the ordinates of PMF hydrograph m order to maintain the correct shape of the hydrograph but importantly the correct volume The % PMF* peaks and volume are given m
Tabic 7-1.
Table 7-1: Peak flow and volume for % PMF at Dam Site 2
Flood event
PMP duration (hr) Peak Flow
1
Peak Volume (Mm )
PMF
24
3.876
160
0.5 PMF
24
1.938
80
Mode! schcmatisation
A HEC-IIMS hydrological model is set up to represent W. 
appropriate elevation storage curve for the resets on an
stotagc capacity. In the model the 7a PMF hydrograph is e
H passes through the reservoir it is attenuated an t
reservoir is considered full when the flood arm cs and th
crest level for a given reservoir storage- It is abo assumed
from dam arc considered negligible when compared with
For a range of spillway levels and dam storage cap
*et in order to obtain the relationship between reservoirs
by solving the continuity equation with an approximation i
i on the Beks over using the
, , .peafic
o
reservoir as the inflow, as
$pl jh„y The
level b set to the spill
ibstraetjons or releases
of the % PMP flood
outflow over the spillway
jjifcrencc:
-
A
 -
_. . I' 0''
l is the mean inflow’ and O is the mean ou
m
m
equation as
change in storage during time step At. The outflow is cak
follows:
Whew, B u the »piWy ac« width (»*• Of Water or surge over spillway crcSt 'C%C
4 SrtJh\V „ 
at
qj
iVMsy H
177J
7 A Referroir ttten virion of 54 FWF
Hood attenuation analysis for the Vi PMF was earned out at Dam Site 2 for all < VB C and D. The results of the model simulations for each dam option ue^.
TablTU Table 7-2, and Table 7-3, respectively. The analysis provides the mawmum^ level and'solume reached in the reservoir as the flood wave passes through, and the outflow downstream The attenuated ’/> PMF is shown on Ftgurc 7-1 for each dam assuming a spillway length of 50 m.
Table 7-2: Reservoir attenuation of’/> PMF (24 hr PMP) for 230 Mm’ of storage fori rangcjfspiOwavwidtha (Dam option A/B)
'FAww-^7. Kjfak'. Mf9ufH ^VT^fr Cw fianjy
.W I )^r«4T /‘nrAf
ff t of 2 1 i* u^cd in this study. If the characteristics of the
300 m m •'iTthcnfarthcf consideration of flow attenuation would be r«p „j
u
Inflow
Initial
volume
(Mm’)
Spillway
crest level
(mail)
Spillway
width
(m)
Inflow
(«•»’/•)
Outflow
(m’/i)
Maximum
water level
(mail)
Maximum
stored
volume
(Mm )
r
qdn
h
a
’ j PMF
230
1.405
30
1.938
752
1.410.2
276 _
__ -
’ i P.MF
230
1.405
40
1,938
861
1,409.7
27£ .
4
%P.MF
230
1.405
50
1.9.38
949
J .4093
268
I
’/» PMF
230
1.405
60
1.938
1.025
1,409.0
2*1
c
% PMF
230
1.405
80
1.938
1.144
1,408.6
26ll
”,PMF
230
JJ
1.405
100
1.938
1,232
1,408.3
258
’ b PMF
230
y
1.405
120
1.938
1 3.2 [
,
1,408 0
_ JI - -
6
Vi PMF
230
1.405
150
1.938
1.399
1,407.7
.253 -
V. P.MF
230
1.405
200
1.938
1.504
1.407.3 ______
250 J-
Inflow
Table 7-J: Reservoir attenuation of ■/> PMF (24 hr PMP) for 378 Mm ’ of •lorsa*e fof *
spillway widths (Dam option C)
Initial
vohixne
e. .a.
Spillway
crest level
Spillway
width
Inflow
(nP/g)
Outflow
(m*/i)
Maximum
water level
(mail)
ito red
volume
% P.MI
i PMF
- M2?
1.420
1.938
1.938
1.938
1424.5
*/i PMF
14242
’ i PMF
’ j PMF
1.938
14238
1423.6
% PMF
14233
1422.9
> 4P5,F
•/> P.MF
1422.7
1.420
1.420
I ’b F4 SrOli U iter KcKmrcry (J)
|3-M*>W ?****' PfW^ Pratr>r
Tabte 7-* Rex*™' ««fn..arion of A PMF (24 hr PMP) for 20 Mm> of Morage for a w nf spiltwiiv width* (Dam option D)
———~" “1 '
IbUo*
(MinJ)
Spiitway
crest Icvd
(muQ
7
Spillway
width
(m)
“
Inflow
(«7-)
r~~ ■ |——--------------
Outflow
(■»¥■}
--------------------- - , ..
MsKtmunj
ware* level (rnatl)
_____________ _
MaxMitn.
tforrd
vo ham*
_______
Hrirhl 4wr ipvDw^y crn(
Irrel
tel
—‘
IJ60
30
1.938
t5JS
1,368.4
38
8.4
' J PMF _
’iPSg
; . PilF _
i mi IF
.■j rAlr | AW
, PVlF Plfk
1, j p,\rr
PMF
^5 J
20
],M0
40
1,938
1.635
13672
35
72
20
1.360
50
I.93B
1.701
13664
33
6.4
20
1JB0
60
1,938
1,748
IJ6x8
31
5-8
20
ljfio
80
1.938
1.B08
1364,9
29
4.9
20
1,360
LUO
I 938
1.841
1364.4
28
4 4
20
1360
120
1,938
1,865
13*3.8
27
3.8
20
1.360
150
1 938
1,685
1363.3
26
33
20'
1.360
200
1,938
1903
13627
25
25
■KCs (1;(
jvm j?n
175rd P'*'1
□rainage modulus
8
t introducdon
X Soils m the Upper Beks project area compose black day soils or verasols. pirbcuhrhr in the perebiy pl^i area (stage development areas IB <Sc IVB). and reddish brown la tome sods ora much of the remainder of the area including over stage development arras 111, IVC and V).
Drainage problems can be expected tn most areas tn particularly on darter land in the Derebay xnd Werk Meda plains Surface drainage is likely to be required over much of the flat and gently sloping areas, while the more steeply sloping land will require sod and water consemtioa measures to safely lead off excess rainfall / irrigation into the (natural and constructed) drainage system of protected gullies, constructed new drams, streams and men. Sub-surface is not envisaged, and would not be feasible on vertisols.
In this Chapter (he general entena affecting the drainage modulus, the appropriate method for its determination, and values of appropriate drainage modulus are presented.
32 Genera! criteria and methods to determine drainage modulus
The rate of water removal to be provided by the surface drainage system depends on several interrelated factors such as rainfall charactensues, sod properties and cropping patterns As cropping in Upper Belcs project area will be dominated by row crops, with both surface and pressure irrigation proposed for the command area, removal of excess water from the sod surface within 24 hours after rainfall is required
Ihc return period adopted for surface drainage depends on the level of protection desirable, for agricultural land five years is usual.
There ire several methods that may be used to determine the drainage modulus. Tun
a Ppropriate methods are outlined below, depending on land slope. .Areas with slopes less than
- o are designated as "flic”, while areas with slopes greater than 0.5% are sloping
I c*k discharges are usually more pronounced and cause more damage on sloping lind than on ^d. Therefore design for sloping areas is usually based on peak discharge, while for flat
design based on average high discharges usually suffices. For the I ppci Beles land slopes tabulated below in Table 8-L
Slope (%)
egonrs_______
Slope Category
Flat and almost flat plain
Almoit flat to gently sloping plain 
_f »cn?ly doping and undulating / rolhng Modenitcb. sloping and unduiaring________
2j P g md undulating
? tecplv doping, undulating and hilly 
f, ln
_____
Grand Total
BAbr II(rMpJt Nii l-^** P'^m? Pr*Kt
In the Upper Beks study area about 48.3% of the land is flat to gently sJr>pIng
less than 3.0%. A further 31.8% is gently sloping and undulating with slopes ] .
o
cumulative total of 121,770 ha (89.3%) has slopes less than 8.0%. However oth^ f >”
such as depth to bed rock result tn only about half the study area being suited to
igoculrurr
SJ Drainage modulus for sloping land
For sloping land the peak (design) drainage modulus may be calculated using the appn^ detailed in the Ethiopia Road Authorin’ Drainage Manual (ERA, 2001).
The project area is located in rainfall region A2 as shown on Figure 8-1. Design nmfiflpE: Section 4 1 estimated from daily data is used as this more representative of the Upper Bda catchment compared to regional rainfall approximated from Intensity Duration Ftajucorr (IDF) curves provided by ERA (2001). The 24 hr rainfall depths for Upper Beks forincpi return periods are given in Table 8-2. The 24 hr rainfall intensity for these return periods ir? presented in Table 8-3. Rainfall intensities for differing storm durations for a range of MU periods are given in Table 8-4
Figure 8-h Rainfall region! (ERA. 2001)
4 ------- ---- --------------------- -
I
rlulH
X
V -.
\ ■/ CM0A\ '
l*b F4 SrOfi Water Resource* iZI
182T ,bkjJ 24 hr rainfall depth*
Upper Be**
24 hr depth (nun)
Return period frcq ucocy
Observed
2
67
5
L»
SO
100
84
* Hl
121
Bl
Tabic 8-3: 24 hr rainfall in tea airy for Upper Bclei catchment
24 hr rainfall intcrmty(tnrD/hr)
Upper Beier
Return period frequency
2
5
10
25
50
100
■ *■
Observed_____ _
2,8
33
4.0
4.6
5.0
53
: Rainfall intensity for Upper Beks catchment
Upper
Bck»
Rainfall mtenrify (tnm/lu)
1 Observed
Remra period (year*)
Don don
(hr)
Dura don 
(min)
2
5
10
25
50
100
01
5
121"
153.4
P44
202.1
219.9
2380
02
10
1027
129.4
147 |
1705
185.4
2007
0.3
20
722
91.0
1033
119.9
130.4
141-3
03
30
563
71.0
80.7
933
1017
110,1
1
60
35 J
443
503
583
63.4
687
2
120
21.0
263
30.1
34.9
38.0
41.1
3
180
15.4
19.4
22.0
25.5
27.8
30.1
4
240
123
153
17.6
20.4
22-1
24,0
5
300
103
12.9
147
17.0
183
20.1
_ ____6
560
8.9
1L2
127
147
16.0
173
12
oLg
720
5.0
63
7.2
83
9.0
9.8
1440
2.8
3.5
4.0
46
50
53
l^ie rational method, corrected for soil type and slope, uses the following the following guidon from the ERA (2001);
j2 = 0.002786 G/
^htre Q
of mno( f
£ u the runoff coettia ent representing a rino
nuxjff to raWaU Thc recommend(;cl c Vl]u„ foI surfaces using hydrologic soil groupings
sl °pe ranges arc presented in Tabic 8-5. The mean of each range for the C values have been s 7'"1 for ^^crent slope and soil types For land slope <2% a C value of 018 is selected for
of o'?* D VCttiitols- whereas for gently tolling retrain for slopes between 2% and 6% a C value VlJ 3 15 USed for VPrnc soils. Slopes between 6% and 15% art predominantly red dap and a C
7" of 0.27 is seleefed for a Joi] y j a iVOTgc
m(cnilfy for a duration equal to the
Concentration, for a selected return penod (mm/hf). and z! is the catchment area (ha).
iQUrtt, (2)
13-Sky 1
1835
Eunv
(w-* R*** - <<* 
Ijr^ Mr /"**»•
The Q teim in the formula » rhe adjustment for major storms > 10 yr. This B b^,
frequent. higher intensity storms have infiltration rates and other losses that propony i
a snuller effect on runoff These frequency factors applied to the rational formula *
tn Table 8-6 as recommended by the ER-A (2001).
Table 8-5: Runoff coefficients for pervious surfaces by selected hydrologic ‘oflgro^
and slope ranges (ERA 2001)
Soil Type
Terrain Type
A
B
C
H
Rat, <2%
0 04-0.09
0.07-0.12
0.11 0.16
Rolling, 2-6%
0.09 0.14
0.12-0.17
0.16 0.21
<UM3
HiDy.6-15%
013 0.18
0.18 0.24
0.23 0.31
0343
Escarpment, >15%
0.18-0.22
0.24-0.30
0.300.40
0JM4
Table 8-6: Frequency fact ora for rational formula (ERA 2001)
Retuna period
(yean)
Cr
5
1
10
1
25
1.1
50
1.2
100
1.25
Table 8-7 Peak
flows for 1:5 year retun
a period
ERA region
E5 year How (1/t/ha)
Reg Al fc A2
Slope (•/,)
Duration (hr)
Du radon
(“»)
<2%»
2%-6%>
6%-15%2
0.1
5
74.6
960
115 1
02
10
62.9
80.9
. 97 1
0.3
20
443
56.9
68 3
0.5
30
34.5
444
. 53.3
1
GO
21.5
27.7
2
120
12.9
166
3
180
9.4
121
14 A
4
240
7.5
97
11 A
6
----------------------------
360
5.4
7.0
84
12
720
3.1
39
47
24
1440
1.7
2.2
• Vertuoh; • Red dayr
26
—£"---- 1
184
( b 1*4 .Wh VTtrrf Jkwwcef (2)tine a I 5 y “ 
c
ccnirn P€rlod' tbe flows for cich hwJ sloF* chjMi ire ubuhted
LX in Tiblc 8 7 Thc soili np< JF"4mcd for ,loPes <2% CLe M »™l 2M% Cle roUmg) H.cnls whereas for slopes above 6% (ic. steep) ire considered red divs,
ifc vrrusew.
For Uppc* B<Jrs
drain slopes van- from rebovely shallow (<5%) to very steep
(>12%X and overland flow velocities vary depending on the steepness of the slope. The
velocity increases with slope steepness which reduces the time of coocmtritmfi m-cr the catchment- For the purpose of estimating concenrratKm tunes velocities were calculated for the different slope class, and a representative velocity was chosen for each class A 15 year rrrum period is suggested for the design of rhe new draws and smaller waterways and 1:25 rears for larger / natural drains and to delineating drainage comdors cither side of exiting narural drainage lines (streams and / or rivers). For these re rum periods the design flew for vinous drainage flows are calculated and tabulated in Table ft-8 and below m Tabic 8-9.
8-8:
modulus values for a
:5 vi
Nr
Drainage
Area (ha)
Average
Velocity (m/t)
Time of
concentration
(fart)
Rainfall
InienAify
(mm/hr)
Drainage
modulus
Ma
’Drainage Category 1 Flat (<2%)
1
50
03
13
39
18-94
Field /lerttiry
.2.
500
0.3
3.4
18
8.67
CoUcclor
3
1.000
03
63
11
531
4
3,000
0.3
8.5
9
4.45
Main
—- ------- ’Dramjxrr Category 2 Rolling (2-4%)
I
50
06
0.6
63
39 44
Field /ternary
500
0.6
1.7
32
19.94
Collector
1.000
0.6
3-1
19
1188
4
3,000
0.6
4.2
15
936
Main
*Drai
xuge Category 3 5
teep (6-15%)
1
____ 50
0.85
0.5
73
61-20
Field /tcrtnrr
500
3
0.85
1.2
41
3058
CofletTor
0 85
22
26
1888
r
* i
1.000
3jSo
Main
0.85
3.0
19
14.66
lc *Min:c> (2)
IVXhy-H
185F*fr*w'
Nr
«f /*,’*<« a Mitufp tf rlift c*" Zi>njj
Air /-xfufiw i*i E>na*qt Ph»nr
Table 8-9: Typical drainage modulus values for a range of slope tvn n
■■ *
Rainfall
Intensity
(mm/hr)
T
Drainage
Area (ha)
' L -jinAj venge Velocity (m/e)
f Tirnr TnifmI e of concentration
(hr*)
nsodulm
0/«/ha)
'Drainage Category 1 Flat (<2%)
1
50
03
13
51
27 45~
5nn
0.3
34
23
il56~~
3
1.000
0.3
63
14
^70 ’
4
3,000
0.3
8.5
12
644
Mr
'Drainage Category 2 Rolling (2-6%)
1
50
0.6
0.6
83
57.16
had -
*>
500
0.6
1.7
42
28.90
Crfe
3
1.000
0.6
3.1
25
1722
4
3.000
06 42
19
13.56
Mia
^Drainage Category 3 Steep (6-15%)
1
50
0 85
0.5
96
8871
Fell
2
500
0.85
1.2
54
4433
QAr-i
3
1.000
0.85
2,2
35
27.36
\bn
4
3,000
0.85
3.0
26
2U5
bor^/ue,, 
c < ^C5lgn norm divided by th -
(Uope kls
considered, if it ifl. 
j
nn y
Meda pl^ ]f
Fc >r UIpt * as per Bsuemlese a 24 h d that our storms
° cra8c ^CMgn drainage modulus is determined prm h Ration tune rhe flat land approach would only be
° PPer Bcles, for example in pans of the Derabay ind <«*
a return penod of 5 years
u ou
. jj appropriate
d
 . 
11 rc,Ufn P^nod of 1.5 years gives a rainfall depth of*
off within 24 hours 7^’° ™4 and the total storm volume is® be
n WcH
« ’ ninagc modulus of 9,72 l/s/ha
° «mg «n ,
d
t TOn 6ooij
«... up ,„ 5(w
Fm
*<
bc applied, Tiblc 8-10.
Table 8-10:
Area Reduction Fact on
Nr
1
Area ( h 4 )
I>ci» thxn SCO
2
3
500- 1,000
1.000-1,500
4
____ 5
6
1^500 - 2, SOO
2,500 - 5,000
5,000- 10,OOP
7 _________________ More than 10/500,______________ ________ ^fi/ Source .5gn<ulrurd Corr.pmi’ium for Kurd IJcVefcim™ -5"
T mi m 1
& Subtree. 1 boicf
t 7» F4 SrOU Water RrMourerr |2)
186Mttty f/gZu'rr <*- p
Mr rrnfi&U W Pea r^r P.rm /
(j^^p^rfwn o/me r^n J< -mJ tfen/nmemfrefon
A compansoo of values of the drawage modulus canted by
below in Table fl-11. for drainage areas of 50 ha, 500 ha, 1.000 ha and 3,000 ha fable 8-lb
Fwlaod rprfhrLd
KeductKMi
Factor
‘'''■ !’; !i_j:
4 | 
5 Q0u
(
5J
4.5
Mam damage irrj
The sloping land method with appropriate return period and for relevant slope category u proposed for use to estimate runoff and to sure new drainage works. determine flood bund / reservation limits for rivers, as well as to consider appropriation sod and water conservation measures along gullies and streams.
187
IKMir I!SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS
be realised. Already there is considerable ongoing and planned water resource dodopmmt in
The recent inauguration of the Tana-Beks hydropower scheme on 14* May 2010 h« ahead? mcreased ihc countries energy production. Water « supplied ro rbc Tina-Belts hydropower station, transfected from Lake Tana through a tunnel Release from the Tina-Beks hydropower station is expected to supply enough water to support a significant area, at least 50,000 ha. of irrigation in the Upper Belcs project area. Our study focuses on determining the area of irrigation that can be developed sustainably in the Upper Belts catchment from water releases from the Tana-Belcs hydropower station and rhe volume of reservoir water irorage along the Enat Beks River is required.
In this study a water balance model of Lake Tana was developed using WRAP software incorporating die existing and planned future water resource developments in the Tana and adpaccni Belcs catchments. The objective of this modelling was to examine the opendon rules for the Tana-Bdes hydropower for transfemng water for irrigation tn the Belcs catchment without impacting Lake Tana water levels, or environmental release to lhe Abbty uver or
T
electricity production
odclling results confirm the iccommendaDOu by SMEC (2008) to adept a higher f? pcrition level of 1,784.75 mas! to safe guard shipping on 1-akc Tana and reduce
CVM*'tc5 (2)
1S9
13-Miy Ubi** ffemnA * LMVa MhmTH U f:*fr$ I Xa> rfW I'bnjp A»rJ
Figure
9-1: Halcrow- GIRD operation rule using minimum lake level, of 17M ?5
 ——--------- ———'
' ~ ~
Halcrow & GIRD operational rule for Lake Tana (min 1784 75 m*l)
%
*•*»•*♦-
17 SI 00
1717.7$
17I7SO
171725
1717 00
■ 12D
1716 75
1716 50
>K
1716 25
17I6OO
1715.75
1715.50
■0
1715 25
1715 00
17M75
Dec JiH Feb Mar Apr
the meant lhake eT lienvea-lBdd 1 es erh/^
Vt-hcn
for 85% of the rame, d ’ m f° operate the diversion of
atchmenc the mean
renutn h«h acecdln
levels „ nu^, 
c
7
*' °P<^atcd using the SMEC operation rule (min. 1 84.75 nusf masl. Lake les’ds remains above 1,785 nusi ^ a*crow - GJRD opcranon rule is usedto
'° h>'dmP
oweT M ,,on in thc Bdo
»
"» '<> • water level of 1,785.7 masl lake «.erh« i.7«5 mail for 89% ofthc time period
f to *
for (ran> rt
‘ «td>ment if the emvonmcntal flow requirements reported bv McCartney et aJ
uwig the DRM appr.uch „c idoptfd
•W7) for the Abbay over
fetommcndcd lhe ElA (M«“
I mand ° ^
n
-
If flow releases from the hydropower station are uncontrolled, based on^ ' rurbiocs), annual lake levels decline dramatically by 1.0 m, and
the tunc Navigation would remain an annual problem as lake levels won < loci in any year from January to June
45*
■ G,"t> °pm~" -* • 
w.
advantage, 
rule (nun l^r’"
bv 7% from T
Jiniiar) to May compared to the SMEC rules (2008)- 7lu* 1
,CdurtK>n w eJe«"aty production of 3°/c comp*ted tnC,h production .nereis by 10“/. over the dry
January to June. Thu i» coruidcred likely io be a period when oth^
,y>w"
Ub M SrOI> Water Rnourui (2)
190
I
J^ , •ffMxT*'-
u
J--**1*
sources of hydro-power ««■ likely to be constrained by water shonagn and when electricity is most valuable.
2 Secondly, it allows a greater atea of imganon to be developed before storage on the
final Beles is required, and less Storage need be provided when it is needed, see tables below-
Modelling results indicate that for irrigation demand Options A, B. and C no ttonge ti required for a net irrigation area of about 75,000 ha if the Hikruw GIRD operation rule 3 adopted, after which storagr is required. A development of about 90,000 ha would require storage of 70- 100 Mm depending on crops grown and irrigation and conveyance effioendes, see Table 9-1 below (and Table 6-7 previously). For irrigation demand Option D (100% sugarcane), storage a required after development of about 60,000 ha.
Tabic 9-1: Storage requirement for different areas of irrigation for low, medium aod high
irrigation duties (Hal crow - GLRD operation rule 1,734.75 mas I)
1
Irrigation Option A
(Low)
Irrigation Option B
(Medium)
Imgahon Option C
(HW
Irrigation Option D
^Maximum)
Trngation
drra
(M
Graai
vtoragc
13
(Mm )
Dam
height
tmj
Gross storage
J
(Mnt )
Dam
height
(m)
1 Grow
storage
1
(Mm )
Dam
height
ftrt
Grow
•to rage
5
(Mm )
Dam
height
(«)
_ J 5.000
0
(J
0
0
0
0
25,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
65,000
-25.000 Ljso.qm
85.000
0
0
0
0
0
0
40
39
0
0
Q
0
0
0
75
49
28
54
0
0
30
35
no
57
40
39
40
39
50
42
150
64
70
48
70
48
90
13
190
70
f ’he SMEC rules (1784.75 ma si) are adopted then storage on the Enit Belts river » required r about >0,000 ha for all irrigations options, refer Table 6-8 previously .
sotnc agreement is obtained regarding operation of the Tana-Belrs hydropower station. p™dent to consider construction of a storage reservoir which would ensure irrigation
suppbo fot about a month aI ciop demands For example, for the envisaged Upper Bdcr
ac uding I lynu) Oe, 
7 ^tn Uvt storage of 203 Mn>' dim option
unga0on lrca of 63 8 O ha
’ FSL of 1,405) is equivalent to a delta of 0.32 m and would meet dry season crop water
u UUemen^ for about 5-6 weeks. This would proside security to farmers in event that
V’fream hydropower fcJeases are not as expected for what ever reason. However this ux>uld be pensive and probably unnecessary expense.
lerm legation development envisages about 10-20,000 hr being developed m the that J *ly?* La[chnic"' in addition to 63,871 ha tn Upper Beles- Also it is understood
ut 85,000 ha could be developed in the Lower Beles, see Section 5J1.
(2)
Ij-Mir II
191•//>»<»* * AfatMfn tf ITj/rr Cv
*
[■Jtofm Ai> /nt-0* D*w«<r
Hcmnci no Monge is needed for initial irrigation development of 50 -75,000 hj
therefore suggested that the Upper Beles right bank and Hyma could fint |K dfv'
SDAs 1.11 & HI for about 42-52,000 ha comprising the nght bank command
and linna foe 10-20,000 ha). The Enat-Belcs storage dam would then be built wnufaJ^*
mth development of the Upper Beles left bank command The size of the dam wou^"'
on:
• Actual net irrigation area in Hyma;
• Actual operating experience of the Tana-Beles power station, and
• Actual crop water requirements for the right bank (Ac Hyma) command
It is not considered cost effective to build a large dam at Upper Beles with any provision frx imganon in Lower Beles The Lower Beles dam site at Dangur. located at 1l°06’ 3” N, J? j? 30" E, has much better stage-storage characteristics . A 120 m high dam at Dangur uxxildcn about 4,640 Mm . This compares to just 378 Mm' for the largest (possible) dam in Uppa Bda The natural catchment of the Dangur dam is also large, 8.980 km compared to fust 590
the Upper Beles dam site. The Dangur reservoir would flood about 12.000 ha compared to
1,100 ha for the Enat Beles dam.
Therefore based on the data available the Dangur dam cost per volume stored is UkeJy to > much cheaper than for the Enat Beles dam. This indicates that the Upper BcJes dam should only be sized to ensure irrigation within Upper Bdes Ac I fyma. and specifically for the left bad command As the total Upper Beles and Hyma irrigation area is unlikely to be more thin ibo*
S 85.000 ha then a small dam / diversion weir, high enough to command the Upper Bdo Bank Main Canal, may well be appropriate*
the result, from thc *
7
5
2
2 °’°) sh°» th^thtm " ,n<>dcIllng m th» *»«»>• and others (SMEC 2009. « o‘JTT?* °f *' d'^' <n hke levels depends
1 785 f b,,in’ th« «l«o dia,,. 7 t0wha'lcvcloff“'nreun aaonue nd «J^
g ae
the d maS rC<’u*rcd In ‘hipping for s,f'
'
° ftune uhcn monthly lake levels actrd
Ulc boar PPtHg for their bvehh k V,^a,lon °f die lake, and on those pcopk
1 Cx,n
‘
« 
bv dredtn
2008 SjST"1
»'*■'
•"
'-»« health facdioe, and
tn,paCt Of drcl^g Me levels could be
ui 'w
8 ^^^.2O1O) h'P’,°^^f0opclatritJo_vv,ffr)fvds(SMh-C
’ operation ofTana
20 ,“ ;,,,Cnd
.hm, lo
nc
smaller Uh
e
* of Vi,ct levda and J ° Cn^orune°^l and social impacts vising
year or ifler 1 m a larger area of
**** during the dry season A
><• decline in witer level, is Ukdi to h*«
Refer HCEOM Rq*<t, Phiu- 2 Dam I’ri^cti Srudicd (abo referred tu tn the SMEC «rp«»rt)
• The detign rult supply lod for the Upper Bek* Left Bink Mun Cjnil i» *• 1355 mad Uh E’4 SrOl a Wafer Rewurro (2)
192r
dependent on the ecological of lake, its wetlands, and near shore vegetinon, careful
nuoigcmenr is needed to determine how best to allocation water resources in the Lake Tana and Beks basins-
In 2003 when lake levels were at their lowest farmers moved onto the lake bed / buffer zone area tn grow crops. Tt is expected at lower lake levels farmers will use the dried lake bed for food production and grazing, expanding (he area of recession agriculture compared to the present However, this is likely to have a negative impel on rrar ibore ecosystems and exacerbaie sedimentation in to the Lake. There is also a nsk with the movement of more farmers onto the Like shore that these farmers may burn and dear reeds co cultivate more crops bringing them into conflict with other local people fie. Negede). There is also a danger if
farmers move their homes to be doser to their fields on the dried up lake bed that a rapid use in Lake level could occur, causing inundation of this shoreline, and flubsequenlfy threatening the fanners Livelihoods and even endangering their lives (McCartney et al 2010). Educaaou of local people to the dangers of rapidly changing lake levels is recommended (McCartney etal. 2010).
As levels of irrigation dev elopment increase in the Lake Tana bum in to rhe future, benefinng food production and food security, there is likely to be a reduction tn the reliability of eketriacy production, as lake levels decline. For example, a future drawn down of lake Tana will result in less water available to transfer to Tana Beks hydropower plant reducing decenary production >nd supply of water for the Upper Belts Scheme. Careful management of the energy and
ugauon, sectors are needed to gun the benefit of a future increase ill food production bur hour a significant cost in terms of assured electricity production. The economical benefits of
greater food security against reduced reliability of electricity should be assessed Tradeoffs
impace on the ecology of the lake. particularly in the brtoraj zone, and remit m the deskcstKJQ of thc *cdand* surrounding the hlu- shore The near there vegeuboa such „ the
reed, important for Negede people (Lt canoes for trading. household utcods). n apected to suffer from further drawn of dry season lake levels. .Already, heal people cumphm that many of papyrus ^ds have dried out and Urge areas have died (McCartney et >1 2OJQ). Increased device a non of reed beds is likely to result tn the loss of fish breeding habitats
^p^ctfng on the livelihood of many people who depend on fishing (mm I jke Tina Dedmuig
fch blocks is already having adverse impacts on commercial fisheries established on I-ake Tana (McCarmn e* 2010) Since the livelihoods and welfare of many people arc directly
betwr^n
competing needs will have to be made to avoid conflict between competing
* 
*
^cultural and energy sectors at the same time avoiding adverse soda! and environmental
<>r* f-^kc I ana and Abbiy river. For instance, simply dosing the Tts Abbay power
^’tlOns on Abbay river will not safeguard lake level decline; i common stakeholder perception
UcCartney et aL 2010)
th' °ff eX15tS t>ctween la!(r ecosystem and the ecosptem of the upper Abbay Rrver
Ae Tis
Issat Fl]ll
of |al[; ouinow5 by the Cha^t-Chara war has sigmfleanth
SCaSOD °°ws and significantly decreased wet season flows in flic upper Abbay , CoCr Hb6 chln«e m the flow regime and reduction in inter annual vanaiwns in (lmn luve
fioih1k*t’blC CColoK’cal
It i» important that the regulated downstream flows released
c C ha .Chara weir satisfy the cns-irrsnmental flow- requittmisiB downstream of the lake
ta
IVMnr H
191,\'i> /-<ufr«
outlet to muntiin the ecology and biodiversity of the upper Abbay river. McC^
(3009.2010) hu used in ecological based approach (i.c. DRM) to determine em-^ 0,i
flowi dou-nstream of the Chara Chara war to maintain ecological functioning l^'41
the Tts bur Falls.
It is also importinc that lake outflows attempt to preserve flows over the Tis |$ur . aesthetic reasons as these falls arc an important tourist attraction in Ethiopia for don^
tnteminonal visitors. A further decline in flow’s over the Tis Issat Falls would Merit
ACJy nnpiC '4
tounst numbers resulting in a loss of income for many local people who rely on tourac fa -- livelihoods. Since the livelihoods and well-being of many people arc directly dependent on T, Issat Falls careful consideration is needed regarding the partitioning of lake out flow? bctu~- the Abbay river and those transferred to the water scare Bclcs catchment via the Tins Beks hydropower plant
Overall, there are many, often competing, water demand and water user sectors in the Tua Belts basins. These include imgated agriculture, energy production, fish eno, navigation, environment, water supply and tounsm, all with different demands and requirements Qnuii change is expected to exacerbate competition between water sectors as the availability of «ite resources becomes more uncertain as the climate becomes more variable If accelerated economic growth in the Tana-Bclcs basin is co be realised then effective planning, manjftrr.c and regulation of water resource developments is essential to prevent conflict between competing water users sectors. Careful management of natural resources would also opw^ the benefits to all competing sectors. Sustainable, well managed and regulated water re development is also important to prevent further degradation of Lake Tana, its surro^ shoreline wetlands, and downstream in the Abbay river.
fb F4 SrOla U 3fer Rcvx/rm (2)
194references
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197
1>\bT ItKfMf d E&qu. SbtutT) tfV
tokf* Xii /npf* **
h^taANNEXES
description____________ ______________
ZJ
*nnexa_
YtONTHLYk DAILY RAINFALL
_
MONTHLY RAINFALL DATA FOR paut statton
VOCEXA2_.
I
MONTI ILY ILUNFAU._p.\TA FOR CHAGSl_STA HON
MONTHLY R.AINF.UX DATA FOR XL\NDURA station
MONTI n.¥.RAINFALL DATA FOR D^GITA STATION
MONTHLY RAINFALL FOR GORGORA STATION
daily rainfall DATA F( )R pawe STATIC IN
DAILY RAINF.ILL DATA FOR SLANDURA STATU ]N
DA ILY RAINFALL PA I A FOR DANGIlA STATION
DAILY A'JNFALL DATA FOR CORPORA STATION ________________________ _ DAILY RAINFALL DATA FOR KUNZ1LA STATTON
AVERAGE MONTHLY RAINFALL
' LONG TERM AVERAGE OBSERVED MONTHLY ILUNF \LL H »R STATION
IN TANA BASIN
J
ASSOLii—
jSXEX .\6 
_
JlNXEXA7__ VSNEN AH ANNEX A9 _ ANNEX A10 annex b
XKNEX Bl
ANNEX 02
__________ __________________
M()NTlILY RAINFALL ESTIMATED USING CO-KRIGING FOR UPPER BELES COMMAND AREA
ANNEX B3
M( >NT1 ILY CATCHMENT AVERAGE RAINFALL DATA
ANNEXC
MONTHLY CLIMATE DATA
ANNEX Cl
MONTI FLY CLIMATE DATA FC>R PAWE STATIC >N
ANNEX C2
MONTHLY CLIMATE DATA FOR DANG IM STATION
1 ANNEX CJ
MONTHLY CLIMATE DATA FOR Cl IACr.NI STATION
ANNEX C4
Ml >NTMLY CLIMATE DATA FOR MANDURA STATION
ANNEX C5
availability of .monthly climate data at pawe. chagnl dangila and mandura stations
^NEXct
infilled climate data for pawe station
r ANNEX 1)
FLOW DATA
^T.X b l _
4
2-SNEXD2
MONTHLY FLOW FOR M AIN BELES RD1.R AT BRIDGE STATION
Ml JNTHLY FLOW FOR GILGEL BELES RIVER NEAR MANDUHA
--^Txrn -12£>EX CM
daily FLOW for ALAIN BELES RIVER AT BRIDGE STATION
^NNEX 05
Y\\ip T~ —
dally flow for gilgfj. bfj.es river near allndura
v
MONTHLY FLOW FOR ALAIN BELES RIVER AT BRIDGE STATION (INFILLED)
Mt JNTHLY FLOW ESTIMATED USING A FCEG1OSLCL APPR< >ACH
A GUI DE FC)R OPTIMISING WATB.VL PARAMETERS J_. u .-LVD j
“~~~L
ANNUAL MAXIMUM DA1LY FLOW FOR MAIN BELES AT BRIDGE —4
ANNUAL MAXIMUM D.MLY FLOW FOR GILGEL BELES NEAR MANDURA-----------------------------
SEDIMENT DATA ________________________ _____________ — ——
SUSP^!D^js£DlMENTCONCF^£raATION^F<2®I=ii^ I ANA
ANNUAL DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL--------------------------------------------------
ANNUAL DAILY MAXIMUM RAINF.M1. —--------------------- — LAKE LEVELS
1
j
IJAUfll
iR<r»**
tMMv \i>
.Wm*>♦.' “ ■*»’ e>-fc*T
Prtr»T
ANNEXNR
KNNEXG1
KNNEX G2
annex H
DESCRIPTION
M< >NT1 ILY (IBSERX'ED I.AKE LEVELS Ft >R ]. \KF ,
J- "
s
D A1LX'OBSERXTD LAKE LEX’ELS FOR LAKETANA XTILu^^L
AREAL RAINFALL AND ETI(
LAKE TANA&BELES AREAL. RAIN! \| I i MNGCOKRjging
IT F< >R SUB-CATCHMENTS USING I I |( IRNTT nX'AFlT-MFTHOD LAKE TANA NET EVAPORATION
LAKE TAN A NET EVAPORATE )N
LAKE TANA FLOWS
LAKE TANA LTA AND OBSERVED (JUT FL( >W 
OBSERXT.D RIVER Fl OXX DATA RAWING INTO LAKE TAX A MONTHLY FLOW FOR SUBCATCHMENTS ____
MONTHLY FLOW FOR SUBCATCHMENTS USING RAINRUN
RESERVOIR EVAPORATION
.MONTHLY NET RESERVOIR EVAPORATE)N ADJUSTED MONTHLY INFLOWS TO LAKE TANA
'
ANNEX Hl
ANNEX H2
ANNEX 1
ANNEX 11
ANNEX J
ANNEX JI
i ANNEX J2
1 ANNEX K
1 ANNEX KI
ANNEXL
ANNEX LI
ANNEXM
ANNEX Ml
ANNEXN
ANNEX KI ANNEX N2
ADJUSTED MONTHLY INFLOWS TO LAKE TANA STORAGE REQUIREMENTS ft OPERATING RULES_________________ — UPPER BELES & HYSLA SCHEME FAILURE RATE .AND STORAGE REQUIREMENT (lLALCROW - CJRD OPFRA11ONAL RUU£Tg£Zlg^----------
UPPER BELES & HYNLA SCHEME FAILURE RATE AND ST<JRAGE
■REQUIREMENT (SMEC OPERA IK INAL RULE 17M.7S nu«lj ______
L’b F4 SfOU Waler Rrsource* (2)
iiANNEX Al
MONTHLY RAINFALL DATA FOR PA WE STATION
%
W ^r Re
■ ^cw (2)
lu
i
IJMjr III fWnc.
tf Mrvufn Fjfrr /: arrp
/ jWm> Xti /*»^aew W P*»»gr F*9*f
I h F4 SrOla Wafer Keaourcra (2)station Monthly Winfall (mm)
Date _
Jarv97
Rainfall
0
Feb-92
Mar-92
Apr-92
Rainfoil
9999
___ 0
9999
57.2
Fet>97 0
Mar-97
2.1
Apr 97 312
May92 714
jun-92
Jul-92
175,9
337 8
May 97
Jun-97
147.4
180.4
Jul-97 330 8
Aug-92 4816
Aug-97
383 3
Sep-92
238.9
175,8
Oct 92 1998
Date
Jan-02
Feb-02
Mar-02
Apr-02
May 02
Jun-02
Jul-02
Aug02
Sep-02
Oct-02
JJct-jg
Sep 97 1757 Oct 97 170
06
Jan 88
Fetb88
jdar-88
O
153
2.7
Nov-92
Dec-92
Jan-93
Feb-93
Mar-93
Apr-93
M ay-93
Nov-97
16 9 Nov-02
Nov-8?
Dec-87 9999
Dec-97 9999
Jan-98 0
Apr 88 0
May 88
Jim-88
Jul-88
Aug 88
Sep 88
Oct-88
Nov 88
Dec 88
Jan-89
104,7
3902
441.7
466.1
452.1
125.1
_____ 0
-9999
_____ 0
9.1
-9999
0
0
82
34.5
112.2
Jun-93 3214
Jul-93
Aug-93
Sep-93
Oct-93
Nov 93
370.5
290.9
167.6
96.5
31.8
Feb-98
Mar-98
Apr-98
May-98
Jun-98
Jul-98
Aug-98
Sep-98
Oct-98
Nov-98
0
98
9.6
153,6
511.3
384 8
3666
243
146 7
5.6
Dec-93 9999
Dec 98 9999
Jan-94
Feb-94
Mar-94
Apr-94
____ 0
____ 0
____ 0
117
Jan-99
2.2
Feb-89
Mar-89
Apr-89
May 89
_____0
1.9
36.9
189.1
Feb-99 0
Mar-99 0
35.5
Dec-02
Jan-03
Feb-03
Mar-03
Apr-03
May-03
Jun-03
Jul-03
Aug-03
5ep-O3
0ct-03
Nov-03
Dec-03
Jan-04
Feb-04
Mar-04
Apr-04
May-94 1547
180.7 May 04
Jun-89 9999
Jun-94
207.2
Jul-89
Aug-89
jep-89
Octi?
N0V‘89
473.3
348.2
421.2
99.7
Jul-94 2907
Aug-94
Sep 94
Oct-94
304.6
-9999
77.9
Apr-99
May-99
Jun-99
Jul-99
Aug-99
Sep-99
Oct-99
280.9
2857
359-2
223.6
Jun-04
Jul-04
Aug-04
Sep-04
134.6 Oct -04
Nov-94 489 Dec-94 9999 Jan-95 0 Feb-95 9999
Nov-99 197
NOv-04
Dec-04
Jan-05
Feb-05
Mar-95
Apr-95
35.3
14.8
Dec-99
Jan-00
Feb-00
Mar-00
-9999
_____ 0
_____ 0
2.1 Mar-05
Apr-00 612
Apr "05
May-95 927
Jun-95
Jul-95
Aug-95
Sep-95 2481
Oct-95
Jun-05
Jul-05
Aug-05
Sep-05
Oct j>5
Nov-05
Rainfall
•9999 9999
9999
9999 -9999 -9999 ^9999
•9999 9999 -9999 9999 -9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
0
■9999 18.1
___ 3 -9999 -9999
•9999 -9999
■9999
-9999
3.2
Nov-95 0
May-00
Jun -00
hjW0
Aug-OO
SepQO
Oct jO
Nov-00
1887 May-05
412 9
233.3
433.6
91.6
264 8
200 9
3653
1767
223 8
-9999
21/01/201A_Apper>drx_A1
2
2 1/O’C.-M**** ’
ANNLX A2
monthly rainfall data for chagni station
Srf
r«Oiir
Crt (2.
i
JVMjtI'Jif* Vai /qpto* ** &**** ^W*rMonthly
fmrn>
□ate
Dace
Rainfall
Date
Rainfall
Date Rainfall
Jan 77
Jan 81
Jan-85
Feb-85
Mar-85
Apr-85
____ 0
____ G
Feb-77
13.6
Feb-81
Mar-Sl
____ 0
157
____ G JAJ
Apr-77
May-77
1.9
14 8
35 3
128 8
May 85
May 89
218 4
-77
370 8
Apr-8l
May-81
Jun-81
Jan-89
Feb-89
Mar-49
Apr-89
Jul-77
278
Jul-81
Aug-81
Jun-85
Jul-85
328.5
309
Jury 89
273^
5 36J
394 9
281.1
Aug-8 5
504 5
Jul-89
Aug-89
373 5
Sep-77
269.4,
Sep-81
Sep-85
268 6
Sep-89
224
151,7
78.4
Oct-81
127.4
36.9
0
17.7
____ 0
863
59.3
Oct 85
1401
16.5
Oct 39
Nov 81
Nov 85
Nov 89
Dec-77
6.9
Dec-81
Jan-82
Feb-82
Mar-82
Dec 85
Jan-78
319
0
Pec-89
Jan-90
Feb-78
11 7
Jan-86
Mar*86
Apr-86
May-86
Feb-90
Feb-74
Mar 90
Mar-74 _
Mar-78
Apr 74
Apr- 78
18
Apr-82
May-74
225 2
142 S
Ji>n-74
May-78
Jun-78
115 2
23 5
Apr-90
Mjy-90
161.5
5.1
72
17.4 ____ 0
10.7
0.1
652
3288
298 4
May-82
Jun-82
288
Jun-86
2999
Jun-90
165.3
Jul-74
M~74
Sep-74
_ Oct-74
287.5
Jul-78
417 2 Aug-78
Jul-86 Aug-86
244 4
302.2
330 1
Sep 78
257.6
352.9
319-6
248.5
Nov-78 807
Jul-82
Aug-82 be p -8 2^ Oct 82
Nov-82
4599
3SS.6
279.1
322.1
0
Sep-86 2552
147.3 Oct-78
Nov 74 0
Oct-86
Nov-86
1746
21.6
DtC-74
Jan-75
2.51 Dec-78
1.2
2.4
Dec-82 0
Jan-83 0
Dec-96 0
Jan-87 135
_
Feb-75 89
Jan-79 0
Feb 79 0
Feb-83
0
Feb-87
0
JuF90
Aug-90
Sep-90
□ct-90
Nov-90,
Dee 90
Jan-91
Feb-91
188.2
433 2
273 8
9999
9999
9999
0
9999
_ Mar-75 _ *pr-75
6
18.8
May-75
139.3
221
181
May-8 7
254 4
Jun-87
202,1
Jun-91
451 5
Mar-79
Apr-79
May-79
Jun-79
Jul-79
Aug-79
0
54 3
____ 0
9999
-9999
Mar-87
Apr-87
0.3
53.1
200.4
Mar-91
Apr-91
May-91
hjn-75i
300.7
Mar-83
Apr-83
May-83
Jun-83
Jul-83
Aug-83
•9999
339.9
Jul-87
284.3
Jbl-91
Sep 79
Oct-79
Nov-79
Sep-83
Oct-83
Nov-83;
373.4
292.4
Oct-87
Nov-87
202.6
265
M91
Sep-91
Oct91
Dec 79
185.1
249.4
191.5
92
_____ q
Dec 83
Dec 87
0.3
Jan-80
o
Jan-88
3.1
12.8
38.6
Jan-84
Feb-84
Mar-84
Apr-84
459,5
336.8
205.8
17.2
____ 0 ____ 0
^irg-87
Sep®?
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
110,6
____ 0
Feb^SS
42.4
Nov-91
Pec-91
Jan-92
Feb-92
Mar-80
_____0
305
2193
293-7
Mar 88
2.1
Mar 92
9999!
9999
9999
9999
9999
0
Apr-92
9999
87.9
115.6
Apr-88
192.3
264,3
9999
May 80
May 84
Mar 8g
May 92
Jun-80
233.5
Jun-84
Jun-92
Jul-92
171.2
377.9
Jul-80
Aug-80
289 5
Jul-84
446
Jun-88
Jul-88
149.6
394.7
344.1
9999
339.9
Aug-84
236
340.8
123.7
Aug 88
■80
Sep-88
Oct-8®
325.2
322-5
Aug-92
Sep-92
302.6
166
354
Sep-84
Oct 80
Oct 84
Nqv-88
Oct-92
Nov-92
J999
9999
9999
Nov -84
-9999
Dec 92
9999
Dec-80
Dec 84
Dec 88
219-5
224
1943
15/12/2010Chagni Station Monthly Rainfall (mm)
Date
Rainfall
Date
Rainfall
Date
Rainfal
Date
1 Ramfall
la n-93
-9999
Jan-97
-9995
Jan-01
01 Jan-
05l
Feb-93
•9999
Feb-97
9999
Feb-01
0 Feb
osl ~~9999
Mar-93
-9999
Mar-97
-9999
Mar-01
1
3] Mar-
OS] -999^
Apr-93
9999
Apr-97
•9999
Apr-01
20
1| Apr-05| .9999
May93
9999
May 97
-9999
May-01
210
May-05, 9999
Jun-93
9999
Jurv97
9999
Jun-01
349.
5] Jun-05] -9999
JuF93
-9999
Jul-97
-9999
Jul-01
264
2f Jul‘05[ -9999
Aug-93
-9999
Aug-97
-9999
Aug-01
233.
3 Aug-05 -9999
Sep-93
•9999
Sep-97
-9999
Sep-01
251.
6] Sep-OS| -9999
Oct 93
•9999
Oct 97
-9999
Oct 01
268.
3 Oct-(
)S -9999
Nov-93
•9999
Nov-97
-9999
Nov-01^
25/
41 Nov-C
)5 -9999
Dec-93
9999
Dec-97
9999
Dec-01
8.
1 Dcc-C
IS] -9999
Jan-94
•9999
Jan-98
9999
Jan-02
1.;
2| Jan-0
6 -9999
Feb-94
-9999
Feb-98
•9999
Feb-021
) Feb 0
6 -9999
Mar 94
9999
Mar 98
9999
Mar-02|
4.(
>] Mar-0
6] -9999
Apr-94
•9999
Apr-98
•9999
Apr-02]
38.3
l] Apr-0
6 -99991
May-94
•9999
May 98
142.9
May-02l
29.3
|] May-0
6] -9999I
Jun-94
•9999
Jun-98
359.9
Jun-02]
258
J| Jun-01
5| -9999
Jul-94
•9999
Jul-98
299.7
Jul-02
300.1
Jul-O(
-9999]
Aug-94
9999
Aug 98
246
Aug-021
345.9
Aug-06
9999]
Sep-94
9999
Sep 98
261.2
Sep-02
215.2
5ep-O6
4 -9999]
Oct-94
9999
Oct-98
392.4
Oct-021
199.5
0ct-06
1 -9999]
Nov-94
9999
Nov 98
44.2
Nov-02
15
Nov-06
-9999]
Dec 94
9999
Dec-98
6.2
Dec-02
12
Dec-06
-9999!
Jan 9$
9999
Jan-99
1.2
Jan-03]
0
Jan-07
-99991
Feb-95
-9999
Feb-99
0
Feb-03]
13.5
Feb-07
■99991
Mar-95
-9999
Mar-99
9999
Mar-O3|
I6.l|
Mar-07
-9999|
Apr-95
•9999
Apr-99
24.9
Apr-03|
0
Apr-07
9999J
May 95
•9999
May-99
260 9
May-031
79 51
May 07
-99991
Jun 95
-9999
Jun-99
336 S
JunO3l
404 S]
Jun 07
99991
Jul-95
-9999
Jul-99
234 3
Jul-03
357 7]
Jul-07
-9999]
Aug 95
-9999
Aug-99
391.7
Aug-03]
323^|
Aug-07
~~9999l
Sep-95
-9999
Sep 99
235.1
Sep-03]
281.6]
Sep-07
999*4
Oct-95
9999
Oct-99
228
Oct-03
86 6
Oct-07
“^99991
Nov-95
9999
Nov 99
30.7
Nov03
179
Nov 07
99991
Dec-95
■9999
Dec-99
15.2
0ec-03]
2.5
Dec-07
-9999]
Jan-96
9999
Jan-00
0
Jan 04]
0
Jan-08
-99^]
Feb-96
•9999
Feb-00
0
Feb-04]
05
Feb-08
-99991
Mar-96
-9999
Mar-00
18
Mar-04]
.
5.8
Mar-08
-9999]
Apr-96
-9999
Apr 00
122.1
Apr-04]
77.7
Apr-08
^9999]
May-96
-9999
May-00
155.9
May O4[
67.5
May-08
-99991
Jun-96
-9999
Jun-00
286 5
Jun-04]
293.2
Jun-08
99991
Jul-96
9999
Jul-00
3348
Jul-04|
350 2
Jul-08
-9999J
Aug-96
9999
Aug 00
360.1
Aug-04|
. 359
Aug-08
^99991
Sep 96
9999
SepOO
322.2
Sep 041
408.5
Sep-08
99991
Oct 96
9999
Oct-00
316.5
Oct-04]
102 2
Oct 08
99991
Nov 96
•9999
Nov-00
477
Nov-041
.
54
Nov 08
999?]
Dec-96
-9999
Dec-00
3
Dec-041
16.51
Dec-08
-9999]ANNEX A3
MONTHLY RAINFALL DATA FOR MANDURA STATION
Mla tv-
lyMir 4!
•ctifcci (2)'<«*’ * *
rr
r
f?
x -\* f^r«M S I*—* l'r'rf'’
r
Ub F4 MO la Waler Resource! (J)
'7
uMonthly
* mrn)
Date _
Rainfall
Date
Rainfall
9999
Date
Rainfall
Oat*
Rainfall
Jan-76
Fcb_76
Mar-76
Apr-76
0
Jan 80
Jan-84
Ian-88
G
53
13.6
Feb-80
Mar-80
-9999
9999
Fet> 84
c eb-88
Mar-g4
0
____ 0
5-5
20 3
Mar 38
23
5.7
Apr 80
9999
Apr 84
____ 0
976
2303
9999
Apr-88
____ 2
212-6
May 80
-9999
9999
May-84
Jun-84
Jul-84
Mi
193 3
367 4
Jun-80
Jul-80
Jun-88
284 3
322 9
-9999
Jul 83
455 9
Aug-7 6
308
Aug-80
9999
Aug04
- jjnr?
Aug 88
355 6
Sep-76j
222 2
Sep-80t
9999
9999
9999
Sc p-84
9999
9999
9999
sep-aa
443 3
Oct-76
139 3
Oct jO
Oct-84
Nov-84
Oct 38
127 3
Nov-76
92
Nov 80
Nov 88
0
Dec 76
0
0
Jan-77
Feb-77
0
0
Dec-80
Jan-81
9999
9999
Dec-84
Jan-85
Feb-85
Mar-85,
Apr-85
9999
Dec-88
0
____ 0
J an-09
Jan 73 _
0
Feb-81
-9999
0
Feb-39
c
0
Feb73
Mar-73
73
Mar-77
4.5
Mar-81
-9999
673
Mar-89
Apr-73
43 8
Apr 77
9999
May 73
214 2
May-77
____ 0
192.6
Apr-81
May-81
28.4
Apr 39
-9999
May 85
1873
May-89
_ Jun-73
280 6
Jun-01
9999
308 1
Ju I-73
Jun-77
Jul-77
Jun-85
Jun- 89
203
454
157.5
3093
451.6
Jul-81 Aug-81
9999
Jul-85
427.7
513 9
Aug-73
Aug-77
399 7
-9999
Aug-85
Sep 73
Sep 77
223 4
Sep 81
Oct-73
Oct-77
88 6
Per 81
-9999
-9999
310
158.8
Jul-89, Sep-89
508.5
3833
286 4
Oct-89
Nov 73
Nov 77
25 2
Nov-81
13
Nov-89
211
3
Dec-73
Jan-74
Feb-74
Dec-77
Jan-78
Feb-78
£
0
Dec-81
Jan-82
9999
9999
Dec-89
10
0
J an’90
0
Feb 82
Sep-85
Dct-85
Nov-85
Dcc-85
Jan-86
Feb-86
33
0
0
Feb-90
Mar-90
Apr-90
0
6_5
0
Mar-74
Apr-74
Mar-78
Apr-78
15.2
242.1
Mar 82
118.6
33
Mar-86
Apr-86
0
6
0
Apr-82
May 74
May-78
88
MayB2
46.7
May-86
Jui>74
Jun-78
473 8
Jun-82
50.8
Jun-86
17.4
320.6
May-90
Jun-90
____ 0
933
124.2
Jul 78
496.6
Jul 82
720. S
Jul-86 Aug-86
362.6
Jul-90
3983
Aug-78
646
Aug-82
479.6
378.4
157.9
Aug-90
690 4
Sep 78
209.6
Sep-82
298 2
Sep-86
Sep 90
Oct-78
191 8
Oct 82
74 6
r
Oct-86
Nov-86
1856
1.2
0ct-90
Nov-90
Dec-90
324J
9999
Nov 78
__ q 
o
Nov 82
o
Dec 78
Dec 82
o
Dec 86
0
-9999
9999
Jan 79
9999
Jan-83
Feb-83
___ 0
Jan-87
Jan-91
0
-9999
____ 0
Feb-87
____ 0
Feb-91
OS
Mar-79
-9999
Mar-83
Apr-83
Mar-87
3.6
Mar-91
■9999
9999
9999
____ 0
-9999
Apr-8 7
15.2
Apr-91
____ 0
2897
May 79
May 83
-9999
May-87
Jun-87
Jul-87
May 91
Jun-79
Jul-79
Sep’79
Oct-79
582.1
9999
Jun-83
Jul-83
-9999
Jun-91
279.3
588,7
-9999
JuF91
-9999
9999
9999
9999
-9999
Aug-83
3804
2933
1063
4.2
283.2
303.3
1884
296.6
Aug-91
Sep-91
99S9
Sep-83
Aug-87
Sep-87
204 1
76.4
Oct-91
9999
-9999
Oct 83
Oct 87
642
NoV-79
9999
-9999
-9999
Nov-83
Nov-87
Nov-91
28.9
Oec-79
0
Oec-87
Dec-91
9999
Dec 83
1SH 2*2010Mandur* Station Monthly Rainfall (mm)
Date
Rainfall
Date
Rainfall
Date
| Rainfall
Date
Jan-92
9999
Jan-96
-9999
Jan-OC
) -9999
Jan-04
Rainin’! 0|
Fcb-92
9999
Feb-96
9999
Feb-OC
) -9999
Fcb-04
Mar 92
9999
Mar-96
9999
Mar-OC
1 -9999
Mar-04
2Zn|
Apr-92
■9999
Apr-96
-9999
Apr-OC
II -9999
Apr-04
^ilH
May 92
9999
May-96
-9999
May-OC
| -9999
May 04
5BI
Jun-92
-9999
Jun-96
-9999
Jun-OO
1 9999
Jun-04
190l]
Jul-92
-9999
Jul-96
-9999
Jul-00
-9999
Jul-04
S3«3l
Aug-92
-9999
Aug-96
9999
Aug-00
-9999
Aug 04
587 2]
Sep-92
9999
Sep-96
9999
Sep-00
-9999
Sep-04 i
419.6]
Oct-92
9999
Oct 96
-9999
Oct 00
9999
Oct-04
213.61
Nov-92
-9999
Nov-96
-9999
Nov -00
-9999
Nov-04]
37.3
Dec-92
•9999
Dec-96
9999
Dec-00
-9999]
Dec-04]
29.2
Jan-93
-9999
Jan-97
-9999
Jan-01
-9999]
Jan-051
-9999
Feb-93
-9999
Feb-97
9999
Feb-01
-9999
Feb-05]
-9999|
Mar-93
9999
Mar 97
9999
Mar 01
-9999]
Mar 051
999$
Ap<-93
•9999
Apr-97
•9999
Apr-01
-9999
Apr-05]
9999]
May-93
-9999
May 97
-9999
May-01
-9999
May-05]
-9999]
Jun-93
-9999
Jun-97
-9999
Jun-01
-9999]
Jun-05]
•9999
Jul-93
•9999
Jul-97
9999
Jul-01
-9999]
Jul-051
-9999I
Aug-93
9999
Aur-97
9999
Aug-01
-9999]
Aug-05|
-9999]
Sep-93
9999
Sep 97
•9999
Sep-01
-9999
Sep-05]
9999]
Oct-93
-9999
Oct-97
-9999
Oct-01
-9999
oct-osf
-9999]
Nov-93
•9999
Nov-97
■999$
Nov-01
9999]
Nov-05]
•9999]
Dec-93
9999
Dec-97
-999$
Dec-01
-9999]
Dec -05]
-9999]
Jan-94
9999
Jan-98
9999
Jan-02
-9999
Jan-06]
-9999]
Feb-94
-9999
Feb-98
•9999
Feb-02
-9999
Feb-06]
.9999]
Mar-94
-9999
Mar-98
-9999
Mar-021
-9999]
Mar-061
-9999]
Apr-94
-9999
Apr 98
-9999
Apr-02]
-9999]
Apr-06]
-99991
May-94
•9999
May-98
-9999
May-02
-9999
May-06j\
-9999]
Jun-94
9999
Jun 98
9999
Jun-02
252. if
Jun-06]
999?l
Jul-94
9999
Jul-98
-9999
Jul-02
234.4]
jui-06r
.9999]
Aug-94
9999
Aug 98
9999
Aug-02|
-9999]
Aug-06]
""^9999|
__ Scp-94
9999
Sep 98
-999$
Sep-02]
159.6]
Sep-061
9999]
Oct-94
Nov 94
9999
9$$q
Oct 98
-9999
Oct-021
156.5]
Oct-O6|
Jan-95
Nov-02]
Dec 021
9999I
9999]
Dec-94
9999
Nov 98
Dec-98
9999
999$
9999
Jan-99
Feb-95
Mar-95
Apr-95
May-95
Jun-95
Jul-95
Aug 95
Sep 95
Oct-95
9999
-
Jan-03|
-
0]
31. if
9999]
Nov 06]
Dec-061
.9999]
Jan-O7j7
"^99991
■9999
■9999
9999
■9999
■999$
-9999
999$
$99$
-9999
Feb-99
Mar-99
- _ Apr 99
May-99
Jun-99
Jul-99
Aug.99
_ Sep 99
Oct 99
9999
9599 r -999$
999$
999$
•9999 _ 9999
•9999
Feb-031 Mar-03] Apr-03]
May-03 Jun-03]
Jul-03] Aug-Q3[
Sep 03 ’
5.7
9.31
zsl
53.31
312.lT
291.8
304.2]
407.9]
Feb-07] __ Mar-07] ~ Apr-07] ~
May 07] ~ Jun-07] _
Jul-07] Aug-07] Sep-07]
-99991
99991
^9999]
-99991
^99991
9999]
9999J
-99991
Dec-95
-9999
•9999
Nov Q$
Dec-99
•9999 Nov-03
9999 Dec-03
Nov-07
Dec-07
■9999
A Appendix A3 xIs<
; •**jt<' p'j'*
ANNEX A4
MONTHLY RAINFALL DATA FOR DANG TLA STATION
(2j
J
IVMji tJ'l*"
f '*■'**' /S**’
t'h I 4 StfOLa Water Reiourrea (2)
iiDate
Jan-70;
Otte
9999
Feb 70 9999
Jan-75
iab-73
’j
Fabio
Mar-70
Mar-75
MaMC
Apr-70
*P' 7S
-Apr 80
May 7D
May 1C
ftj fi-65
kr-40
Jul-65^
2826
352J
Jun-70
Jul-70
May-75
Jun-75
Jul-75
9909
9909
9999
Aug 70
Aug 73
JU-80
AagJP
J-F .rj
Sep JO
SrpTS
Sepao
9999
Oct 6J
Oct JO
Oct?5
OctK
9999
Nov-65
Mqv-70
NO*’75
her* 10
9999
Dec-65
Jar-66
Dec 70
Dec 75
0
Jan-71
Jan-76
J999
9999
c*c40
Jan-81
9999
jjn-61
Feb-66
__ 0
Feb-71
reb-76 9999
Feb-Bl
9999
Feb61
Apr-61
Mjr-66
Apr-66
54 3
Mar 71
Mar 76
Mar 81
9999
14 2
ApMl
May 81
May 63
May 66
Apt-71
May-71
Apr-76
May 76
-9999
9999
Jun-51
j ur-66
Jul-61
Jul-66
251-6
336.3
321J
Jun-71
Jul-71
Jun-76
Iuk76
Jun-81
JiMl
AUg-61
Sefr-61
Au8 66
298.4
(Xt 61
Aug-71
Sep-71
Oct-71
Aug 76
Sep-66
Oct 66
229-3
123.2
9999
Nov-fr)
Nov-66
41.5
Nov-71
Sep-76
Oct-76
Nov-75
±4?L
Sep-81
Oct*)
No^ai
-9999
Dec 61
Dec 66
0
Dec-71
Dec-76
Jan-62
Jan '67
0
Jao-72
J*n-77
Decl)
Jan-82
9999
17.9
Feb-62
Feb-67
__ 0
Feb-77
Mar 62
Mar 67
01 3
Mar 77
Apr-62
Apr 67
7.5
Feb-72
Mar-72
Ap<-72
Apr 77
Feb-82
Marl?
Apr-82
May-62
Jun-62
May 67
Jun 67
746
170.1
May 72
M ay 77
May 32
Jul-67
295 2
Jun-72
Jul-72
Jun-77
Jul-77
Aug-62
Aug-67
5ep67
16SJ
204.9
Aug-72
Aug-77
9999
.jep-q
Oct-62
Sep-72
Sep* 77
Jun-82
JuMQ
Aug-S2
Sep-83
Oct-67
120.3
Oct 72
Oct-77
On 12
-9999
9999
Ncy_62
Nov 67
82 7
Nov-72
Nov 77
Nov 12
9999
Pec-62
Jan-63
Mar-63
Dec-67
D Dec-72
J an-68 0
Feb-68
0
Mar 68 3
Jan 73
Fab-73
Mar 73
Apr 68 51 Apr 73
Hio-63
May-68
Jun 68
Ju 168
901 May 73
9999
322 9
Aug-68 237
9999
Feb-69
9999
>9999
Jun-73
Jul 73
Aug 73
Sep-73
On-73
Nov-73
Dec 73
Jin 74
Feb-74
Mar-74
Apr-74
May 74
Jun-74
Jul-74
Aug-74
Dec-77
Jan-78
Fab-78
Apt-78
May-78
Jun-78
Jkji-71
Aug-78
5cp-78
Oct-78
Nov-78
Dec-78
Jan 75
Feb- 79
Mar-79
Apr-79
Mn-79
Jun-79
Jul-79
Aug-79
DecH
lan-83
FeMJ
Mar-83
Apr-83
Jun-83
Juh83
Aug-83
Sep-83
Oct-83
WH3
Dec-83
3>n-84
Feb-84
Mar64
Apr-84
9999
9999
-9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
■9999
■9999
9999
9999
-9999
9999
May 84 9999
Jun-69
Acii^g1
-9999
212.3
3-456
347J
jun-M
Jul-84
Aug-84
9999
9999
-8999
j9999
-9999
-5999
9999
Sep-74
Oct-74
37QS
9999
4.7
0
Sep-79
Oct-79
Scth84
Oet-M
•9999
Nov 69
Nov-741
Nov-75
NOvM
•999?
iWWXj^
g«69
Dec-74
Dec-79
Dec M
'77X3Ralnfal'
Rainfall
59
1
Lan-85
Kb 85
Mar 85
Apr 451
May 85
hjn-85
MC
Aug 8S
Sep 85
Um'li’
-9999
9999
9999
9999
■9999
-9999
9999
9999
9999
Jan-90]
Feb 90
Mar
90
Jan-95
Feb-95
Mar 95
Jan-00
0 FebOO 61.1 Mar 00,
Apr 90
_ prQ5
fl
May-90
62 I May 95
1302 May 0
May-(X
Jun-90
Jul-90
08
245 4
4699
Apr-95.
Jun-95 209 2
Jul-95
2208
Apr 00
0
Jun-OO
Jul-00
Aug 90
4792 Aug-951
263 A_ug:oo
135 3
344 1
313
436 1
Sep 90
265 8
Sep 95.
177.9.
Sr p-00 2378
St;
55 8
—1
Oct00 26S3
Oct 85 9999
0ct90
OctOS
Nov45
Nov-85
Dec 85
Jan 86
Feb 86
Mar 86
Ap'86
9999
99991
9999'
•9999
9999
9999
Nov-90
Dec 90
9999
•9999
Oct 9? Nov-95
3.3 Nov-OO
9999
Oec-95| 21 2
Drc-OO
Dec 05
Jan-06
Jani?
Jan 96
0 Jan 01
Feb-91
M 91
F b96
e
Mar 96 1253 Mar-01
19
}eb 01
Feb 06
ar Apr-91
May 91
Apr-96
May-96
Apr-01
182 4 May-O*
Mar-06 157 3 May 06
May 86
Jun-96 185 6
Jun-06
Jun 86
Jun 91
Jut 06
Ju 86
Jul 91
385 9
Aug 01
259 3
Aug 86
9999 9999 9999
JJ999
Aug 91
Jun 01
Jul-01
Sep-01
318 1
389 5
150 3
Au<O6
Sep^6
•9999
-99991
•99991
9999
Sep-91
Jul 96;
Aug-96
Sep 96
339 8
249 7
Sep86
Oct ^6
Nov 86
Dec 86
Jan-87
Feb-87
Mar-871
Apr-87 May-<7 ~
Jun-87 ~
Jul-87
Aug-87
Sep-87
Oct-87
_ JovJ7
Dec -87
Jan-88
JeM8
Mar 88
._^J8
May-8g
Jvn-88
Ju» 88
Aug 88
&gM
Oct-88
Nov 88
Dec-88
Jan-89
Ftt>89
Mar-89
Ap'-89|
M
Oct 01
Oct 06
Oct 91
Nov 91
Oct-96 74 2
Nov 06
Nov %
43 2
Nov-01
Dec 91 Jan-92;
Dec 96
Jan 97
0.3 __ 0
Dec 01
Jan-02
Feb-02
Feb-92
Mar 02
Mar 92
Apr 92
May 92
Jun92
Jul-92
Aug 92
Sep-92
Oct-92
Nov 921
Dec-92
Jan-93
Feb-93
Mar 93
Apr-93
May 93
Jun-93
Jul-91
Aug-93
5ep 93
Oct-93
Nov 93
J>e<-93
Jan-94
Feb 94
Mm 94
Apr 94
May 94
o'
357'
52.5
209.6
240 1
Mar-07
Apr 02
Jun-02
Sep-02
Oct-02
Noy-02
Pec-02]
jan-Oj
Feb-03
Mar-03
Jun-89 2268
Jul-89
a >89
Sep89
Oct 89
Nov 89
D<-c-89
4482
Dec-94
Feb-97
Mar-97
Apr-97
May 97
Jun-97
Jul-97
Aug-97
Seo 97
Oct-97
Nov-97
Dec-97|
Jan-98
Feb-98
Mar-98
Apr 98
May 98
Jun 98
Jul 98
Aug 98
Sep 98
Oct-98
Nov 98
Jec 98
Jan 99
Feb 99
Mar-99
Apr 99
MayW
Jun 99
Jul 99
Aug 99
yr: 99
Oct-99
Nov 99
Dec-99
Jun-03
Jul 03
Aug 03
Sep 03
Oct-03
NovO3
Dec 03
Jan 04
FebXM
Mar -04
Apf-O4
May 04
Jun 04
JuHM
Aug-04
Sep 04
’oct 04
Nov-04
Dec-04ANNEX A5
MONTHLY RAINFALL FOR GORGORA STATIONh+af DaaatH* KpaH E/tofaa. .\baufn afTafrr^ Eatrg X4 h**aa aaJDfqt b^as
ii
I pw"Month!* R*"fa" (mrn|
Date
Jan-76
Feb-76
Mar-76,
Date
Rainfall
Date
ii
Date
Rairf aJI
Jan-80
0
Jan-84
Feb-84
0
G
Jan 88
C
Feb 80
2.7
Feb-88
Mar 80
2.7
103
507
Mar-84
Apr-84
76
34
108.6
Mar 88
79
05
Apr-80
Ay 83
c
May-76
Jun-76
May 80
May 84
May 88
33 8
Jun-80
Jul-80
2379
Jun-84
Jul-84
180 5
Jun-88
133 3
Jul-76
Aug-76
247.7
205.3
171.1
Jul-88
359 6
Aug-80
Au£84
1463
1203
_0
105
10
0
0
Aug 88
MS
Sep-76
Se: 80
169.5
18.1
____ 0
____ 0
0
0
Sep 84
Sep-83
105-9
Oct 76
Oct 80
Oct-84
Oct 88
114 6
’-76
Nov-80
Dec-80
Jan-81
Feb-81
Mar-81
Nov-84
Nov-88
Dec 72
Dec-76
Jan-77
Feb-77
Dec-84
Jan-85
Dec 88
Jan-73
Jeb-73
Feb-85
Jan-89
Feb-89
•9999
____ 0
____ 0
Jlar 73
Mar-77
Apr-77
May-77
0
Mar 85
11.3
Mar 89
27 6
apr-73
May-73j
Apr-81
May-81
Jun-81
Jul-81
35.3
41.7
Apr-85
17.2
61.7
66.3
Apr-89
May-85
May 89
169
31.2
Jun-73
Jul-73
Aug 73
375.5
5373
216.7
Jun-77
Jul-77
109.1
Jun-85
Jul-85
Jun-89
Jul-89
238.6
322 8
193 9
293 3
Aug 77
Aug 81
247 3
Aug 85
191.6
Aug 89
207.2
Sep-73 262 4
Sep-77
Oct-77
Sep 81
838
Sep 85
129.3
468
Oct-73 24.1 Jov-73 0
Oct-81
299
28.3
0
0
0
13.8
Oct-85
Nov-85
Dec-85
■ttji
Sep-89
Oct-89
_4O4
Nov-77
Dec-77
Nov-81
oooo
Nov-89
Dec 73
Jan 74
Feb-74
____ 0
____ 0
1.6
Dec-81
•9999
Dec-89
Jan-90
Feb-90
____ 0
____ 0
Jan 78
Jan 82
Jan 86
_0
48
Feb-78
Mar-78
Apr-78
Feb-82
Mar 74
____ 0
Feb-86
Mar-86
__0
2.8
____ 0
____ 0
Apr-74 0
Mar-82
Apr-82
37.2
17.4
Apr 86
83
Mar-90 Apr-90
May-74
May-78
Jun-78
Jul-78
May-82
May 86*
bT
Jun-82
Jul-82
56.4
189
Jun-86
Jul-86
110.9
210.7
May-90
Jun-90
Jul-90
21.7
128
143
187.1
Aug-78
312.6
Aug-82
1516
Aug 86
22S.8
2123
, 9999
111 8
Sep-82
106.7
Sep 86
JJct-78
Nov-78
Dec-78
15.2
14.5
Oct-82
Nov-82
42.3
Oct-86
299
Aug-90
Sep-90
0ct-90
129.9
9999
0
Nov 86
0
Nov 90
9999
Dec-82
9999
Dec 86
0
Jan-79
Feb-79
Jan-83
Feb-83
Mar-83
-9999
-9999
Jan-87
Feb-87
Mar-87
_0
Dec-90
Jan-91
Feb-91
9999
•^999
0
9999
-9999
9999
___0
Mar-91
-9999
Apr-79
Apr-83
Apr-87
May-87
Jun-87
Jul-87
11.6
112.7
64.7
1163
210-2
Ay 91
9999
May 79
76.1
May-83
9999
May-91
Jun-91
Jul-91
9999
Jun-79
Jul-79
131.1
236.1
249
10S.3
64.4
Jun-83
Jul-83
9999
-9999^
2189
86.7
9999
Aug 79
Sep 79
Aug-83
Sep83
Aug-87
Sep-87
30.4
Oct-79;
■79
Oec-79
Aug-91
Sep-91
Oct-91
Nov-91
Dec-91
9999
•9999
Oct 83
61.9
0.1
0
Oct 87
61.7
-9999
Nov-83
Dec-83
Nov-87
Oec-87
0
0
9999Gorttorj Station Monthly Rainfall (mm)
Date
Rainfall
Date
Rainfall
Date
Rainfall
Date
Jan-92
•9999
Jan-96
0
Jan-OC
0 Jan-C
4
Feb-92
•9999
Feb-96
0
Feb-OC
J Feb 0
40
?]
Mar-92
0
Mar-96
53.2
Mar-OC
3 Mar-0
4
Apr 92
4.2
Apr-96
72
Apr-OC
64
1 Apr 0
4 52.
May-92
17.4
May-96
1137’
May-OC
35/
i May-0
4 18
Jun-92
559
Jun-96
3169
Jun-00
327 !
j Jun-0
4 172
Jul-92
155.3
Jul-96
-9999
Jul-OO
3114
Jul-0
4 311
Jcrf-Q
Aug-92
3O8 2~
Aug-96
341
Aug-00
191 i
Aug-0
4 241.
8 M-a
bB
q
p
5ep92
86 1
Sep-96
9999
Sep-OO
83.5
Sep 0
4 136
7|
Ckt-92
-9999
Oct-96
9999
Oct-00
1585
Oct-G
4 58.
7| octa
Nov-92
4
Nov-96
•9999
Nov-00
1C
I Nov-0
4 8.
5] Nov48| f
Dec-92
0
Dec-96
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Dec-00
c
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1 2..
5| Oecaj fl
Jan-93
0
Jan-97
0
Jan-01
c
Jan-0!
> 999!
J] JanO9| fl
Feb-93
13
Feb-97
0
Feb 01
G
Feb 05
j 9999] FebO9| 5
-9999J Mar-09 fl
Mar 93
16.6
Mar-97
-9999
Mar-01
0
Mar-0!
Apr 93
33 4
Apr-97
-9999
Apr-01
-9999
Apr-05
•9999 Apr-091 -3
May-93
66.5
May-97
203.9
May-01
-9999
May 05
• 9999| MarM 9
Jun-93
Jul-93
1943
-9999
Jun-97
Jul-97
147.8
294 9
Jun-01
Jul-01
149.7
308 9
Jun-05
Jul 05
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---------- T-rzl—i
Aug-93
Sep-93
249.1
1106
Aug-97
Sep-97
111
99.7
Aug-01
Sep-01
374.1
172.9
Aug-05
Sep-05
__
~ Sep4>43 I rvtTWl -
Oct-93'
17.5
Oct-97
3887
Oct-Ol
1.4
Oct-05
«
Nov-93
253
Nov-97
91
Nov-01
Qi
Nov-05
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9999
-9999
-9999
[ Nov-dj | DerS
Dec 93
-9999
Dec 97
5.3
Dec 01
10.3
Dec 05
9999 "0
Jan-94
Feb-94
-9999
-9999
Jan-98
Feb-98
0
0
Jan-02
Feb-02
u
3
Feb-06
n
Mar-94
•9999
Mar-98
349
Mar-02
0
Mar-06
u
---------
Apr-94
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13.7
Apr-02
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Apr-06
--- ----------
Apr 98
May 94
9999
May 98
51.1
May 02
9.7
May-06
—“ZTqaT -
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Jun-94
272 1
Jun-98
288
Jun-02
248
Jun-06
Jul-94
335 5
Jul-98
3663
Jul-02
253.6
Aug 94
287 1
Aug-98
1804
Aug-02
278
Jul-06
Aug-06
Sep-94
1764
Sep-98
918
Sep-02
142.1
Sep 06
nr? 71 257.41
— in7 71 29/^1 I77.7I
Oct 94
C
) Oct-98
29.1
Oct 02
30
Oct 06
Nov-94
11.1
Nov-98
0
Nov-02
0
Nov-06
Dec-94
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0
Dec-02
0
Dec 06
Jan-9!
>(
) Jan-99
9.5
Jan-03
0
Jan-07
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>(
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285.5
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Aug-03
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Sep-07
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0
Oct-03
Nov 03
4.3
15
Nov-07
0^
Dec 95
o| Dec-99
0
Dec-03
0
Dec-07 _
A AnrMHdix AA »l«^^^X^/rrtJUfrj^PwjtrPr^
ANNEX A6
DAJI.Y RAINFALL DATA FOR PA WE STATION
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DAILY RAINFAI-1. DATA FOR DANGim STATION
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ANNEX 10
DAILY RAINFALL DATA FOR KUNZILA STATION
|CT ^*<ource« (2)
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............................................................................ IliHIHIIHIIHIHIIIIHHHIIHHniHiniilHilliiB
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heeeeeeieeieeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeh m > m g im * $ j eh i $ i ei ninuim***
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.'^“’J’P^HIIHnnEfEfimmEEEffnfUlHH^Jf.HiElll HliEIIEEHiiHiiifiiiiniimmgfinffifHfiflffn (
Jlflllllli'.J???!!’?“’”HiiniifHiiEEffiEiiiEfEiEifffn*n*?\-*<
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X
o-
r- •• S S’-**1WUM010
I
ilium
mum
mis.m
miBciii
mum
. ........ ....... .
-........ ..................I....... .
........ . ............. '!! i
................... ‘MMHHlIHlJ
i
mhcHI .hhhihhhhi....... .....
I
mum
•.......Hllllll...........hit........
mimiummmmimmmHiminh mfejiMimmmmimmimiiiHii
im..m.mmmimiiimmiiimhHii
mum.mmmmmimmmmhnu
!m..mjimmmimmmiiHiHiiiiii
mi..m.mimmmmmmmiiiiiiiH
mum.mmmmiimmmmiimih
Hium jmmmimmmmmmmn mhCmJimimiliHH!HiHl!!Hll!Hli rnkjikmiiimmiHiiimiimiHiiiu mhemdmmmmmmmmmiiim
mmm.mmimmimmmmimiiii micEmjimmiimmmmmmjHji mumjmmmmiimimminHH mimiijmiimiiimmmmmH!!!!!
illLHIL
mmmmiimmmm
mimmimimmm^ .
HlkJIL
mmmimmmmm {
mkdH.
lllkJIL
mum.
rnmmmmmmm
mmmiiiimmim
h
”
mmimimmmm
hii.jil
rnmmmmmm j n
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mum.
irnmik
Himimimimmm
mmmiimmmHm
Jj|f1Mtmtrn *T\ttrr^ Ewp
Etln9f*ji N/k 
attj
PfjfifANNEX Bl
r TERM AVERAGE OBSERVED MONTHLY RAINFALL FOR STATION
LON
IN TANA BASIN
15 May IIFtdemi
Ef/ngttdo Xrif
cf ErttoC*. Minufr) of^atrr^ Eterp a^Dnait^t PrvffJ
Srtt, W.ler RrMunnXJiMrfc™ „
m nlhiy minfaJJ fof ,IBdM
Sra rjop
■BiJtr Dar
j 1 Gpndir
37.42
2099
1B4.4
413.0-!
rsc,
i Deberc Tabor
3<W1
168.4
313 I
2B7 4
107.9
1
i Djngib_______
3683
2129
148.2
3975
1870
Jidda Zerpen
37.7H
12.13
253.5
!972
349.8
3566
244 5
(xurgura
37 yj
12.25
150.5
328 6
1262
Amba Giorgi^
37.60
12.7?
179.4
3003
251.4
119 J
Diboll
37.75
12.9a
1117
2585
251.1
2416
37.05
12 53
217]
201.6
209.9
NLtkAC^!.l|
37 56
12 35
170,5
1896
2979
245.6
150.9
Word a
37.68
i! 92 1801
142,9 298.0 283.5
Wwaiyc 3769 11 77 1955
Rnjiltxra
Sekria
IM
Chlgru
36.92
37.22
37 02
56.50
10.98 2572 11.00 2627 10 85 2434
1094
174,0 407,6 170 9 408.3
189? 3439 481 5
141 I 278,7 419 9
3839 174,0
381 3
481 2
224.9
186 9 261.2
153.5 310.9____ 438.6 395 2
174.9
137 4
164.3
Kidainm
168.7
36 68
11 00
283.0
3514
35B8
281 4
168.9
Mxndun
36 42
203.5
1109
362 1
36.28
139 3
11 24
252.1
249,9
4615
385.7
487.6
373 6
171.0
Pawc
393.9
258 6
142 5
13ek Eirifanoa
37.27
11.91
118.4
388.7
356.9
230.5
130.7
<7hindibi
37.03
12-39
211.3
434.0
2126
136.2
j>!fi__ _
37.04
12 19
205.8
289 3
415.0
260,7
200.8
106.4
Chcwahtc
37.22
12! 6
12.31
99.7
Addei 1A1
37.49
157.9
1176
1956
245.6
232.7
109.8
Enfrarutc
37.68
3755
12 18
1516
320,8
266 3
154 5
1 ilitiuMt
II 78
L4U.0
295 4
272.8
Tbs Ablray
37.58
174 9
438 7
11.48
403.3
210.8
14B.3
330.6
2693
1394
lib Ft SfOLt Water Reiuurcct (2
13 May HDf.’wcmttc Krpubbc tt Ethiopia. hlniitrf of tTatff f* Ewft
XtJf Intfafioo »«.V r>n*r*fr P/w*rfANNEX B2
MONTHLY RAINFALL ESTIMATED I SING CO-KRIGING FOR UPPER BELES COMMAND AREA
i
B-Mav ril-f.imt.' [ynmr-jH,- if EffapW, Mututy cf ITjfrr cu Er*Xt-i .Vifr IrrtfJ3et juJ Drjtiwft Pnyrf
Wire,
' Rc*°“rt eg (2jAMd thh rainfall evtimatrd uaitig cv-kriging fat L'pp
JTCA
JttD
177J
260/7
115-2
439.2
54J.H
321.1
34T£
322.5
ir.s
104.4
156.7
2219
3212
260.0
2433^
284.0
108.8
104.0
367 J
3426
2113
2802
248 H
204.7
342 5
176.4
365.0
338.6
2595
240 5
1410
169.0
I960
215.8
1608
106.6
406.7
3874
156,4
176.8
2661
462^
396.2
558.1
3390
347.3
+442
384 0
1174
2620
448.8
268 4
350 8
2120
161 8
3697
45±8
285.8
196.7
174.5
1484
27B^
328 7
334J.2
179,6
357,1
295.2
276.0
143 3
1U3.8
103.0
358.2
1863
250.5
147.2
164,7
440.4
248,8
356.3
2646
46 M
272.8
338.2
155 3
184 9
1310
168.2
376.3
343.9
349.7
233 8
113 8
331 tt
223 6
166 3
282 H
387.2
1616
221 6
113 8
2002
2003
319 1
3596
154 4
105.3
273 3
245 2
2O5.S
140,6
12tk£
3219
382 5
239 1
288 U
50.0
192.4
477 2
*0$A
277,7
216.4
170 5
220 5
501 6
1-4.3
244 1
5203
592.2
Meiui
1118
240.7
366,7
3317
Ub F4 Srflfl. Watrf Resource* (2)
i
15 Aby-U.\u4* JfT f' ^fifr L>rjrnj^ P*yfrt
?L
*2 1
2-8 !
19.4
40,7
84 7 .
-
82.2
96.7
87 9
70.7
45.9 1
14.0 1
«!
o.o 1
0 0 I
0.0
0.0
40 5
171.5
285.3
259.7
157.0
81.3 1
OO 1
0.0 ’|p rmm Mrurfn flflT'jfrr £- E-r^
ANNEX B3
MONTHLY CATCHMENT AVERAGE RAJNf ATI, n at atthupJ* M
aa/i DrarHJft P^a
Ub F4 $fOU u «»er Mr*oUfce> p
ufox rign
IBM* 326_
■ .— 23-9
Apr
weir .11
M*y
Jun
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dee
J*P
Feb
JW-
Aug
668
2463
315.6
281 8
167.0
6.7
03
4 -__
<n
0-0
— — —
—
22.0
no
1.6
51 1
143.5
356 0
364.6
200.1
90.8
13.9
0.3
b2
0.1
19?2- |PM
59
93
71.6
231.7
3432
251-9
245.1
31.6
0.1
6.9
i>.0_-
2-5
K5
404
143.1
203.3
284.2
2874
132-0
101.9
42
45
198 5
11.1
35
5.2
14.2
153.1
2880
345.3
201 1
1185
61
0.5
1936
1JM
I4
29.9
1864
256.5
276 5
272.2
2D4.9
106.6
12.2
04
]u£_
04
1.2
508
2729
413.3
3228
264 0
157.8
7.6
114
l™_
O7_
—
—
0-4 _ ft 1
15 2
. 49
25.6
126.6
1924
398.7
4059 (
2?4 6
26 1
5.7
1.6
im
0.1 _
. 7 f|
.
224
05
848
104.8
357.9
255.0
217.6
323
04
0.9
39-2
148-0
205.1
494.3
310,0
181 4
68.5
163
0.2
i 19*71
6.9__ _0J_
04
04
580
831
13B2
3179
3634
127.7
138 6
48.9
115 ,
l»<
IJ.V
30.7
1314
2104
313 1
273 1
204.2
1473
73
0-0
1993
1.0
ft 1
04
25.2
2.0
9.8
121.5
2024
311.6
309 5
1493
21.1
11.9
1.9
1994
LL1
{)•>
09
0.9
29,3
22.7
115,1
215.0
2120
203.2
922
25.9
(1.0
52_
17 f J
IMA
16
0.0
”43
68.3
108.7
260.9
268.0
2993
2053
899
40.2
0.0
199?
ot
.
1.1
0.0
145
24.8
210.6
138 8
203-6
273.7
2145
195”
39.7
2.5
1999
0.0
16.2
65
1205
213”
3”0.9
348 5
196.0
1142
176
20 _
1999
6.6
0.0
0.0
14.0
114.8
1844
375.0
359.1
177 2
187,6
93
8.7
2*XW
0.1
10
5.2
71.6
”0.5
175.0
325.7
372.2
188.7
188.”
39.8
0.2
3X11
0.0
0.0
4.0
5.4
04.6
245.7
365 9
369.8
1007
722
0,0
48
2002
03
1.7
10 3
213
153
2694
3353
300.5
131.6
62.5
10.2
0.0
X03
0.0
3J
1.7
1.3
7.0
238-1
3”6.9
339.8
242,7
390
17.7
5.9
JiXM
2.7
9.1
1.0
374
25.8
233-2
461.9
3166
162.0
88.5
39
2.8
2005
14
3.B
39.8
27.4
459
256.1
363 4
281.5
167 1
35.4
2.4
0.0
J)
13 Miv 11
1
fs 
|*
J___ I__ LMmro, nui
Sii I"*—
.hh areal rainfall for left dhrmon weir (mm)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Jun
Aug
—------- 1982
49
0.0
34.4
27.2
24.8
71.8
267.2
313.3
279 l
Sz
19851
1.1
0.1
0.1
1.7
53.9
149.5
345.5
363.0
. 248.8
206 0
19M
0.0
2.8
6.0
10.3
74.7
233^
338.7
254.5
Ljs.
1985
0.1
0.4
10.0
40.1
143.7
200.9
287.7
291.5
137 8
?uj] *
1986
0.1
0.2
3.4
5.9
15.1
165.0
285.8
339.8
.
1 200.0
.4
ZPr
V
1987
5.5
5.0
13
29.5
185 5
266.4
272.1
268.0
196.3
1988
0.8
173
0.4
13
54 1
278.2
400.6
32X3
' 270.6
— IflD j
_ *U<5 106 1 16X5
294
.Il
1989
0.1
0.4
162
28.1
131.7
197.3
403.4
399.6
*2796
1990
66
0.4
46
0.7
J79.4
1123
366 1
2763
218 8
36.4
hi
1991
02
1.9
24.7
48.7
163.01
208.9
502.5
309.8
181 1
69.1
IS’
1992
0.0
03
0.5
56.9
812
139.0
320.5
367.9
1343
138.J
1995
15
0.5
243
292
130.4
214.5
313.1
275 3
20X9
143.8
L 5U 11
i
Ji
)i
1994
0.1
1.0
2.0
10.6
1221
1993
310.9
307.1
147.5
23.9
U5
1995
0.2
0.9
303
21.7
113.0
225.2
213.6
211.9
99.7
293
00
u
1996
1.5
0.0
75.6
67.0
109.5
261.1
273 4
311.8
211.9
886
385
U
1997
0.1
0.0
15.0
26.8
206.8
142.8
211.8
275.9
208.4
195.5
39.0
21
1998
1.0
0.0
162
6.6
124.4
2303
370.9
347.91
2003
114.0
16.9
l»
1999
63
0.0
0.0
154
123.3
189.4
3723
355.0
187.5
187.^
104
r
MO
0.1
23
5.9
70.5
78.0
188.6
324.7
373.0
1893
2012 |
423
u
2001
0.0
0.0
4.4
53
983
2497
364.3
364.2
10X9
733
00
it
2002
03
1.7
10.5
212
184
269.9
328.4
298.8
133.5
68.0
IOC
—i-
2005
0.0
3.2
10
12
7.1
247.1
378.8
325.0
247.5
393
186
2004
2.6
83
10
393
25.8
222.4
4663
316.9 I
167.9
93.6
46_
K
j|
2005
1.6
3.8
380
273
47.0
254.4
37X5
28X4 |
169."
3611
Ub F4 SrOh U'trer Rewrcrt (2)
iiA-frw/Jp ***
^P
Oct [~Nw
452-4
2753
1213 1
175 J
333.8
357.6
250 0
1093
100.8
236.7
346.2
253 4
80,9
153,6
2184
346.0
3120
282.7_
172.9
1 9'1
190.1
248.7
3353
3011
266.4
360.7
288.9
213 J
1703
B5_0
107,6
95.6
319.9
410 I
336.9
351 I
245.2
4474
44)3.0
M1.8
238.2
233 3
528.2
3890
41Q.3
337,2
1972
“6-2
152 1
343.4
4021
302.6
18" 9
137.2
265 2
206.2
1433
1253
136.3
2239
303 I
309.8
114.5
226 4
170,1
1778
121.5
346.7
182-1
2843
3224
425.8
3256
2643
1887
1919
1438
3684
373.4
348-7
235.6
BO. 5
1753
255 5
356.7
2960
3576
240.2
10&5
135 1
269.1
2823
3836
3407
228.5
3419
iqa.i
267.7
285-6
310
190.9
167.4
150.1
tl2B
310.4
385-6
280,9
294 2
489
207.2 1
481-9
326.9
29L.8
9
140 6
241.7 £
44O.£i
1461
472
1
1.1 Mar-lJh*f*' Df**rufK of Eitortu. Ethntur Mt Irrigt^off <wi Dna*# Propel
of JTafrr & Etrrp
UbI '»Srf
l
1 J Wu RrK)ufri
„
ivi- h»<wt 5» /"’j*’’0*
P^nwr
ANNEX Cl
monthly climate data for pa we station1'ttM R/fM; tf Eihnpta. Mifusfy of fTafrr & Untrg EthMt** Xtit ImptH mJ Dnatdff Pnfta
™ 2)
DTemp ( C)
-9999
Humidity (%]
3999
-9999
.MCfl
Sunihmr (hr)
9995
-9999
-9999
3999
9999
3999
9999
3999
3999
3999
jm?
9999
9999
■9999
9999
-5999
■9999
9959
3999
J3J3
-9999
9999
3999
9999
■9999
3999
9999;
3999
9999
-9999
3999
-9999
9999
-9999
9999
-9999
■9999
9999
9999
-9999
9999
3999
3999
3999
ati-w
9999
-9999
-9999
9999
■9999
9999,
9999
995
9999
999
999
■NQV-B4
□ct 84
-9999
■9999
>9999
-9999
995>9
9999
3999
-9999
-9599
9999
3999
9999
Mar-65
9999
9999
-9999
999
999
Ap'-flS 3999
3999
9999
9999
May-lS
399?
jufl-a.5
:J-B5
-9999
-9999
■9999
9599
9999
9999
9999
3999
3999
999
999
999
999|
4uH5
jeHj
-9999
3959
-9999
DcHLS
-9999
-9999
3995
9999
9999
3999
■9999
3999
995
935
999
Nqv-85
Ofc-85
•9999
9999
3999
3999
3999
9999
9999
J99
999
9399
■9999
-9999
9999
9599
9999
3999
3999
9999
999
999
■9999
9999
-9999
9999
9999
999
9999
-9999'
3939
-9999
■9999
9999
999
-9999
-9999
9399
9999
-9999
3999
*999
999
■9399
13
9999
9999
43 5
1.5
17
1-6,
56 2
-9999
9999
3939
9399
3999
3999
9999
1.5
1.2
-9999
9999
9999
34.4
9599
9999
17
13Apoendnr A1
A•My
Humidify |%)
___________ -9999,
___________ 9999
9999
9999
-9999
___________ 9999
9999
___________ 9999
___________ 9999
___________ 9999
__________ -9999
___________ -9999
Sunthing (bwj
_______________ 9.8
_______________ 9.0
0.5
66
Wtod (m/i)_________ _______________ 0.7 _______________ 0,7 _______________ LI
81
6.2
____________ 1.3. ____________2-2
LI
43
___________ 10
5.7
______________ 0.9
5.3
6-6
92
9.7
___________ 9999
9999
9.5
______________ 0.7
______________ 0.4
______________ 0-4
______________ 0.4
0.5
95
9999
9999
9999
-9999
9.9,
92
8-2
5.0
______________ 0.8 ______________ 0.8
0.7
______________ 0.9, ______________ L0
9999
9999
9999
33
______________ 06
□ct-9*
9999
9999
-9999.
9999
9999
9999
4.4
5,8
79
______________ 08 ____________ 116
04
Ney $4
D«-9*
-9999
8B
102
j*t95
Fefr9S
Mf-95
4pr-95
-9999
25.1
22.2
101
8.9
8.9
9.5
MJr95
-9999
9999
84
7.5
-9999
4- 2
•9999
9999
5- 3
•9999
9999"
6.4
82
$3
•9999 '
9.5
-9999
95
MGO
•Tlja
-9999 "
9.4
8.6
9999 ~
SJ
6.6
6-4
0-4
0^
0.S
06
1.0
1.3
LI
0.7
05
04
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.5
0.8
0.9
9999 '
9999
9999
51
9999"
4.4
6.1
82
0-9
0.9
08
0.7
-9999
•9999'~
9999
•9999 "
9.3
9.5
0.6
04
0-4
0.4
-9999 "
95
9999
$999
9.0
7.3
0.4
0.5
0.8
■9999 ~
8.0
68
59
08
9999
07
67.7 ~
74 4
45
74,2
59 3 ~
62.9 ~
4-7
7.3
6,6
9.5
0.6
05
0-5
0.6
0.2
46 9'
36 0
10 2
21/01/2011r
PawiStK^
^Month_
Jan-98
Feb-98
Mar-98
Apr-98
May 98
Jun-98
Jul-98
Aug 98
Sep 98
Oct-98
Npv-98
Dec-98
Jin-99
Feb-99
Mar-99
Apr-99
May 99
Jun-99
Jul-99
Aug-99
Sep-99
Oct-99
Mln Temp [X]
--------- 7^7
Mi* Temp ( C)
Humidity (%)
•9999
j9999
•9999
9999
9999
•9999
-9999
9999
-9999
9999
9999
-9999
9999
•9999
-9999
-9999 9999
9999
-9999
-9999
^9999
-9999
9999
•9999
-9999
9999
-9999
9999
-9999
-9999
9999
•9999 9999
Nov-99 9999 9999
Dec-99
Jan-00
Feb 00
Mar 00
Apr-00
May 00
Jun-00
Jul-00
Aug-OQ
_ SepOO
Oct-OO
Nov-QQ
Dec-00
Jan-01
Feb^Ol
MarQl
Ag 01
May Qi
Jun-01
>ul-Ol
.Aug-01
Sep 01
UcvOl
Nov-Oi
DecOl
_ Ji r>-02
Feb-02
Mar-02
_Apf -02
May 02
Jun-02
Jul-02
Aug 02
Sep-02
Oct-02
Nov-02
Dec-02
-9999
9999
9999
J>999
9999
9999
9999
-9999
9999
•9999
-9999
9999
9999
-9999
9999
9999
-9999
-9999
-9999
9999
Appendix A1Humidity (M)
____________ 43 4
____________ 53.6
44 1
377
_____
43.6
Sunshine {hr)
_____ _________ 9 9 ______________93
80
100
9.6
69 fl 64
793
9999
4.5
5.0
_______________ 0-3
_______________ 0.4
06
0-5.
_0.6
0.6
0.5
0.3
___________ -9999 61 0 3
79.1
_ _________ 9999
__________ 9999'
____________ 76,7'
74.3 '
8.4
93d
9.9
9.9
9_S
____________ 59.0 ~ 9 3
64 7 "
___________ 68-7 ~
78
0.2 O^l
02
03
0.4
O4l
0.5
____________ 83.3_"
____________ 90.0_"
___________ 90 .7 "
6.3
62
54
___________ 92 3 "
68
8.0
_____04
____ 0.4
____0.4
____ 0-5
___________89 3 "
____ 0 2
__________ 85 3 ~
S.fli
___________ 79 7 98
____ 0.2
0.3
_________71 9 "
9.6
16 0
389:
64.0 ~
Vir-05,
17.9
1«3
__________ 67,6 ~
_________ 777
72.7 ""
10.0
89
8,9
96
880
934
49
46
92,9
: 9999
93 3
5.3
6-4
7.1
870
67.1
-U
____ 0.3
____ 0.3
0.4
0.4
____0.1
____0.5
___ 02
0.3
0-3
___ 0.1
___ 0.1
10 i]
___ 0 1
-9999
9999
9999
-9999
10-Qi
9.8
94
9.81
-9999
■9999
9999
6.8,
5-9
-9999
-9999
9999
9999
4,4
-9999
6.1
66
96
-9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
■9999
■9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
98
9.7
9-5
9.1
9.5]
78,
6.3
■9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999 '
37
9999 "
9999
9999
9999
9999
4.3
5-5
8-2
97
■9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
10,1
•9999
21/01/2017Aooendix A1AW Zmnui-w jwa* Pr-jr^ p^M
**
An NEXC2
^OrVTHLY
CLa*ATEDATA
F °RD^GrLA
^nojv
J“? WJi f* 
'rwqfj/o .’W^ry W1*^2 W1-2011ADCOMi* A921/01/201121/01/2011Mra. RfMr tjfpJbinpia, Minutry af Wafer and Enrr^ EfhtupM ,\ia Irr&ft" and Drae^t Pnted.ANNEX C3
monthly CLIMATE DATA FOR CHAGNI STATION
,rHj'Ce, Qj
l.VMsy-HFtiM Dmocmti: itytbb; of Efkopta. Mrnjtr) of W'attr & Etrp EriMpiaa NtJt mJ Draioqt Profit2W1/2O11Appendix A321A3TZ2O11Apoendix_A371/01/20* 1r——«——i -r - i*r\
rhunl SUtkxi Me*n Monthly d»U
Month
Jin-03
Feb-03
Mar-03
Apr-03
May-03
Jur>-03
Jul-03
Aug-03
Sep-03
Oct-03
Nov-03
Dec-03
Jan 04
Feb-04
Mar-04
Apr-04
May-0*
Jun-04;
Jul-04
Aue-O4:
Sep-041
Oct-04
Nov-04
Dec-04
Mln Temp |'C)
MMaatx Temp (*C) Humidity (%)
Jan-05
Feb-05
Mar-0$
9999
-9999
-9999
Ap-05
-9999|
MiyOS
Jun-05
99991
•99?^
Jul OS
9999
Aug 05
SepOS
____ Ocv05
Nov-05
Dec-05
Jin-06
•9999
Feb-06
•9999
Mar-06
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
99991
-9999
9999
-9999
9999
9999
9999
-9999
-9999
9999
A pr-06
9999
-9999
-9999
MiyOfe
Jun 06|
•9999
9999
9999
Jul-06
•9999
-9999
9999
-9999
•9999
-9999
-9999
Aug-06
>p 06
-9999
9999
•9999
9999,
-9999]
9999
9999
9999
-9999
Oct-06
Nov-06
9999
-9999
J3ec-06
Jln-07
.9999
-9999
-9999
9999
9999
9999|
Feb-07
•9999
Mir Q7
■9999
9999
9999
~Apr-O7
Miy 07_
_ Jun-07
>9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
Jul-07
12?
9999i
9999
9999
9999
_Sep 07
-9999
9999
-9999]
-9999
Oct 07
9999
Nov-o?
Dec-07
_9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
-9999
9999
-9999
9999
Appendix A3„ 
4/Sr
^ <*- Bwjp
E B*in'’
r
X54 W’" On**t P^M
ANNEX C4
MONTHLY CLI
MATE DATA FOR MANDI7RA STATION
ScOh
3Ict 2)
LFaM Dtm^ran: RfptMf tf Elbnfta. Mtiufry 9) Wafer cJr Ewg Efbnpum Nik Im&tiM art Dmaage PrwtJ
L’b IM SrOJa Water Resource* 2)
ii
JJ-M*"M.
n<)u
----------------------------- -
r» Station Mw
MontftJ
Jan-83
Feb-83
Mar83
Apr 83
May-83
Jun-S3
Jul-63
Aug 83
Sep 83
Oct-83
Nov43
Dec-83
Jan-84
Feb 84
Mar 84
Apr 84
May 84
’ Max 1
M>n TempfC]
Humidity (%)
___________ ^9999
-9999
-9999
-9999
-9999
•9999
9999
-9999
-9999
9999
9999
•9999
-9999
-9999
•9999
99991
•9999,
Sun$hhe (hr
Jun-84 9999
Jul-84
9999
-9999
•9999
•9999
-9999
Nov-84
Dec-84
Jan-85
Feb-85
Mar 85
Apr-85
May 85
Jun-85
-9999
-9999,
-9999
•9999|
•9999
9999
-9999
•9999
9999
•9999
•9999
-9999
-9999
-9999
JU-8S
-9999
-9999
- j >5
-9999,
-9999
8S
-9999
Oct 85
•9999
-9999
Nov-85
•9999
•9999
9999
Dec85
Jan-86
Feb-86
Mar-86
Apr-86
May 86
Jun-86
9999
-9999
•9999
-9999
•9999'
9999~
-9999
9999
■K1I-86
•9999]
Aug-86
Sep 86
9999
9999]
Oct-86
-99991
-9999
9999
Nov-86
£9999
Dec 86
9999
9999
Jan-87
Feb-87
-9999
-9999
Mar-87
Apr-87
•9999
-99991
9999
•9999
May 87
•9999
Jun-87
Ju<-87
•9999
9999
Aug 87
•9999
-9999
9999
-9999
-9999
Sep-87
Oct-87
Nov-87
Dec-87
-9999
9999:
•9999
-9999
•9999
-9999
j9999
-9999
9999
-9999
9999
-9999
-9999
Appendix A4^■nduri Station Mean Monthly Olmite date
Month
Jan-93
Feb 93
Mar 93
Ap<-93
May 93
Jun-93
Min Temp (*C|
Mu Temp (*C) Humidity (%|
_______ 9999
9999
•9999
•9999
•9999
9999
•9999
9999
9999
•9999
•9999
•9999
9999
9999
■9999
•9999
J99 99
Jul-93 9999 9999 9999
Aug-93
9999
9999
Sep-93 9999 9999
Oct-93
Nov-93
Dec-9 3
Jan-94
Feb-94
Mar 94
Apr-94
•9999 9999
9999
•9999
9999
•9999
•9999
•9999
May 94 9999
Jun-94 9999
Jui-94
Aug 94
Sep 94 ~
Oct-94 '
Nov-94 "
Dec-94 '
Jan-95 "
Feb-951
Mar-95 '
Apr-95
May 95
9999
•9999
•9999
•9999
•9999
9999
•9999
9999
•9999
■9999
•9999
9999
•9999
•9999
9999
•9999
9999
-9999
9999
•9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
•9999
9999
9999
9999
•9999
-9999
-9999
•9999
•9999
9999
•9999 9999
-9999 -9999
9999 9999
-9999
•9999
•9999 -9999
Jun-95 9999 9999
Jui-95
Aug-95
95
Oct 95
Noy95
Dec 95
Jan-96
Feb-96
Mar 96
Apr-96
May 96
Jun-96
Jul-96
Aug-96
Sep 96
Oct-96
Nov 96
Dec 96
Jan-97
Feb-97
Mar 97
Ap<-97
May 97
9999
•9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
•9999
•9999
•9999
9999
J7999
■9999
•9999
9999
9999
-9999
•9999
9999
9999
•9999
9999
9999
•9999
9999
•9999
-9999
-9999
-9999
-9999
9999
9999
-9999
-9999
-9999
-9999
-9999
9999
-9999
-9999
-9999
•9999
•9999
9999
•9999
9999
9999
•9999
-9999
9999
-9999'
9999
9999
•9999
•9999
9999
-9999
9999,
9999
-9999
99991
•9999
-9999
9999
-9999
9999
-9999
9999
99991
9999
■9999
9999
-9999
9999
9999]
9999
9999
•9999
-9999
•9999
9999
-9999
9999
9999
-9999
9999
9999
-9999
-9999
Jun 97 9999
Jul-97
Aug 97
Sep-97
Oct-97
9999
•9999
9999
-9999
Nov-97 9999
Dec-97
9999
9999
-9999 -9999
J999 9999
•9999
■^999
Appendrx A4
AWiWfcXSV*VW vmm» wwr
Mix Temp (*C)
Humidify [%)
Sunshine (he)
9999
-9999
9999
9999
•9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
-9999
9999,
9999
9999
-9999
9999
9999
•9999
9999J
-9999
9999
QO77O7Q7
9999
-9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
O•7O7Q7Q3
9999
9999
•9999
-9999
-9999
9999
9999
o7o7o7a7
-9909
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
Q•7O7O7G7
9999
9999
9999
9999
•9999
9999
9999
9999
-9999
9999
-9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
aooa
J777
-9999
9999
9999
9999
-9999
9999
-9999
9999
-9999
-9999
9999
M 99
9999
•9999
9999
9999
•9999
9999
9999
5^99
•9999
9999
9999
9999
Oct 99
9999
9999
9999
9999
-9999
9999
9999
jnOO
Feb-00
-9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
•9999
9999
9999
•9999
•9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
-9990
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
MirOO
^r-00
-9999
-9999
9999
•9999
Mir Of'
-9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
•9999
•9999
9999
’9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
Jun-00
9999
•9999
-9999
)J-00 9999
9999
9999
9999
oeaa
jjtj
Auf-OO
-9999 9999
-9999 9999 9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
•9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
•9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
(WK
-rm
9999
9999
-9999
9999
^9999
9999
•9999
•9999
9999
9999
9999
nooa
•'rrri
9999
•9999
9999
9999
•9999
9999
9999
•9999
•9999
9999
9999
9999,
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
•9999
9999
-9999
9999
9999
•9999
9999
-9999
9999
•9999
9999
-9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
-9999
9999
9999
•9999
9999
9999 9999
9999
9999
-9999
9999
9999
•9999
-9999
9999
•9999
•9999
9999
9999
•9999
9999
9999
•9999
9999
9999
9999,
9999
9999
•9999
9999
9999
•9999
9999
•9999
J999
6999Humidity (%)
Sunshine (h<
Jin-03
Feb-03
MjrO3
Apr-03
May-03
Jun 03
JuJ-03
Aug-03
Sep-03
Oct-03
9999
-9999
9999
-9999
-9999
-9999
•9999
•9999
-9999
9999
-9999
Nov-03
Dec 43
-9999
9999
Jan-04
Feb-04
•9999
•9999
Mjf-04
•9999
9999
9999
-9999
•9999
-9999
Apr-04
ViyQ4
Jun-04
9999
9999
•9999
9999
9999
-9999
9999
4999
Jul-04
9999
-9999
9999
9999
-9999
9999
• > > ■'•
vT
Oct-04
Nov-04
Dec-04
Jin-05
FtbOS
9999
-9999
-9999j
9999
•9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
-9999
9999
9999
Mi 05
r
Apr-05
9999
Jun-05 9999
9999
J999
9999
-9999
Jul-05
Aug-05
Sep-05
•9999 9999
9999
9999
9999
-9999
9999
-9999
•9999
Oct-05 9999 9999
■9999 9999 9999
Nov-05
9999
9999
Dec 45 9999 9999
9999
9999
Jin-06
Feb 06
Mif-06
Apr-06
May 06
Jun-06
M-06
Aug-06
Sep-06
Oa-06
Nev 06
Dec-06
l4n-Q7
Feb-07
Mir-07
Apr 07
May-07
Jun-07
9999
-9999
9999
304
•99991
9999
9999
9999
9999
•9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
•9999
■ 9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
•9999
9999
-9999
-9999
9999
Jul-07
Aug-07
9999
9999
9999
9999
Sep 07
Oct-07
•9999
-9999
-9999
9999
Nov-07
•9999.
Dec-07
32.0
-9999
-9999
9999
9999
L&l&lallllANNEX C5
availability of monthly climate data at pawe, chagni, dangila
AND MANDURA STATIONSFftir*
I-SlMM NJt lrr^JS99 49 J PvQff pH9fJ
.\!/nirr) fflTjfrr c* E/ Soadoa / Year
/ 19o;
_.rr —
( 19tfJ / 1964 / 1W5
•g»-------- 1 1%6
1967
19611
1969
1970
1971
1972 | WS 1, 1974 \ 1975 \ 1976 \ 1977 \ 1971 \ W9 \
i' Afwt 7 rmp f"Q / 0 / o 1 o
1 Max Temp (*C) / 0 1 D 1 0 LL LVW) T 0 0 b 0 J Sunshine (hr) 0 0 0 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
01
0 \ 0 1
0 I 0 \ U \ 0 \
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 | 0 o I 0 I 0 1 0 \
0 \
/ P«e
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 j 0 \ 0 0 1 \
0 \
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
00
0
0 I 0 1
/
o \ 0 \
! Wind (m/ij JL^
0 j 0 0
0
0
00
0
0
0
0 e i
U 1 0 1 0 0
i Min Temp (°Q
Mix Temp (”C)
Chagni RH(%)
Sunihjnc (hrj
VC-uid (m/*J
0
00
0
0
0
00
0
0
0
0
8
 1
12
12 i 12
12 i 12 \ 12 |
0
0
0
0
Q
u
00
0
0
Q
8
12
 1
11 11 12 12
12 1 12
12
u n 1
0
0
0
0
..0 .
0
00
0
0
0
7
11
12 1
0
0
0
0
00
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
10 12 12
12 1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
00
0
7
12
12
ll
12 12
Mm Temp (*Q
12
9
9
2
0
0
6
0
0
0
I
10
10
to
s
0
'd
0
Max Temp (°C)
12
12
10
12
12
12 10
6
0
0
0
1
10
10
10
5
0
0
Dingili
RJ1 (7i)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
□
0
0
0
(1
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sunshine (hr)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Q
0
0
Q
0
0
0
0
0
0
Wind (m/i)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
u
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
I Miinduf*
L—
Min Temp (*C)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Max Temp CQ
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Uh m SrOli l Water Kraciuicca (2)
l
IJ-Mw-llFeder^ Dvirjfu
MtauiV} afWafrr eMs^rrp
I fhytMt A’/> /in^MT jad Pnr*.f
Availability ofmonthk dim air data at Pawe. Cliaerii, Dangila and Mandura etationa
continued)
Station
Year
1 1980
1981
Min Temp fC) 0
1996
12
1997
12
12 1
Pwe
.Max Temp (°Q
RII f •)
Sunshine (hr)
0
0
0
0
12
12
12
12
12
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
12
12
12
12
12
0
0
0
0
1982
0
0
0
0
1983
0
0
0
0
----- —
0
11
9
12
12
7
12
Wind im/i)
12
Min Temp (*Q
0
Max Temp (*Q
Cbafni
^fzzz
Sunshine (hr)
0
10
12
12
12
12
0
0
0
0
0
0
12
Wind (m/i)
Mm Temp (*Q
Max Temp (*Q
i Dangila
RII (%)
Sunshine (hr)
12
0
0
0
0
1984
0
0
0
0
0
12
12
12
12
12
0
0
0
0
1985
0
0
0
0
0
12
12
0
12
12
0
0
0
0
—-------- 7
Mandura
Wind (mi)
0
0
0
0
0
0
1986
0
0
0
0
0
12
12
0
12
12
0
0
0
0
0
1987
7
7
3
7
12
12
12
0
11
12
0
7
0
0
0
Min I cmp (°C)
Max Temp (°C)
1988
12
12
10
10
12
12
12
0
12
12
9
9
9
9
0
1989
12
12
9
11
12
12
12
4
11
12
n
12
12
11
0
1990
12
12
ft
12
12
0
11
8
11
12
9
9
12
11
0
1991
3
3
0
0
2
2
2
0
2
2
0
1
4
0
0
1992
12
12
0
12
12
2
2
0
2
2
11
11
12
0
0
1993
12
12
0
12
12
0
0
0
0
0
12
12
12
0
0
1994
9
12
0
12
12
0
0
0
0
0
12
12
12
0
4
1995
12
12
2
12
12
0
0
0
0
0
12
12
12
11
11
0
12
12
0
0
0
0
0
12
12
12
12
12
0
0
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
11
11
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
4
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
12
0
0I
."Kirf ■*■•' '•fW'
iv
Sfcrooo Pt ire
J l&tf
1 1998 1 1999 / 2000
T^7
2002
2W3
2004
2005
2006 1
1
2007 200ft i
1
/Min Temp (*Q 1 6 } 9 | 12 1 12
12
12
12
10
12
12
/ A£u Temp f’C J / 7 / 9
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
L*"& 4 6 3
-
i 12 7
0
&
12
12
p
11
0
0
j Sunshine (hr)
11
12
12
8
12
12
11
12
12
1 Wind fm/i) 12 1 12
12
12
10
12
12
12
0
0
0
1 Min Temp (°Q
69
12
12
12
12
12
12
0
0
0
] Max Temp (*Q
7
11
12
12
12
12
12
12
0
0
0
RH (%)
0
0
0
3
12
11
12
12
0
Q
0
Sunshine (hr)
7
to
11
5
11
11
12
0
0
0
0
Wmd (m/i)
8
11
12
12
12
12
12
0
0
0
0
DangiLb
Min Temp (°C)
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
0
Mur Temp (*Q
11
12
12
12
8
12
12
12
0
0
0
RH [•/•)
11
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
0
0
0
Sunshine (hr)
12
12
12
12
11
12
12
12
0
0
0
Wind im/i)
12
12
12
12
11
12
12
12
0
0
0
Mxodur*
Min Temp (*C)
0
0
0
0
7
11
9
3
0
1
0
Max Temp fQ
0
0
0
0
7
11
12
3
0
1
0
Lb HI ScOla Water Krwiurrci (2)
iii
13-Majr IIL.r*"p" Mmrtr) * 1T*tf Eanj> itlhttptM Nik !f*ijpft99 a*d Drurmj^f Prynl' f,Vl
r JWW»J'w' *
ANNEX C6
INFILLED climate data for pawe stationFtAra/ / R/paHu # Efhapw. Minrtv) of ITa/rr d” Entry F.ffafwit Nit frnfalto* W Dnsft^e Prvtrf
rb NSrO|a •'wrr Rrv^^
ijfr *
‘'
. ....... ... M P we (1980-2008}________________________
a
Monthly maxim mn temperature at Pawe
_ X[^n {Jhs 290 303 32.
±tein ■ &ILrd- Jjjjgr.Lini
■jkurnum
7
0
3
29.0 30.4 32.3 33.6
33.3 33 6 352
30.9 32.1
2B.9
27.7
32,5
33.7
31.2
ihi> it 'n° *t4^C ,S ^served value. italic w infilled value, and bold italic is 11 ^tirChagni).
tong (erm iwnRc value (when ihtrt w no
13-Miy T1
il .fW W **
:
l>raiue
InfiDcd minimum lemperaturf al Pawc (1980 - 2008)
Monthly maximum fcmpcratu^TT^
I Mean Obs,
Mean Rifled
Maximum
Minimum
Note: non italic
b observed value, italic is infilled value, and bold italic w long term average
data at Pm ot Chagru
Ub Ff.MHa Water Resource* 2)
AprtuvniasRfftM- Afftwn affT'a^r N& Im*#**
ANNEX DI
monthly observed flow for main beles at bridge gauge
AMj**nrs 2|
: J May : 1
tfR/ptbktfEffwpta. Mtrurfi) of iT 'afrr Etht**ii Ntft Inyatoft Jud Drjtnaff Prw.f
t
/Flow
Date
_
Jan-66 Feb-66
Date
Jan-70
Feb 70
Mar-70
Flow 0.3
______ 03
i_______01
Date
Jan-74
Feb-74
Mar-74
Flow Date
Flow
9999 Jan-78 -9999
-9999
F_eb-7B|
9999 Mar-78
0-9
0.3
Apr-66
■9999
9999
Apr-?8
04
-9999
Apr-70,
May-70
-9999
9999
Apr-74
May-74
May 78
0.9
213
Jun-70
20
Jun-74
20.8
Jun-78
4.4
64-8
141-0
Jul 70
16.7
Jul-74
Jul-78
Aug 70
Aug-74
Aug-78
983
17.7
Sep-70
Qct-70
Sep-74
Oct-74
5ep-78
Oct 78
S.6
1.5
Nov-74
Nov-78
676 120,9 1377
66.0
6.0
Dec-66
Dec-74
Jan-75
Feb-75
9999
Jan-67
0.9
Feb-63
Mar-6j
Apr63
Feb-67
Mar-67
03
00
0.1
0.2
Nov-70,
Dec-70
Jan-71
Feb-71
Mar-71
Mar-7S
Dec-78
Jan-79
Feb-79
Mar-79
Apr-67
May-67
Apr 71
Apr 7$
Apr 79
May-63
May-71
96.0
79.2
25.1
9999
0.4
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
May-75
Jun-67
3.0
71.9
Jun-71
Jul-71
9999
Jun-75
JuF75
1023
2149
1796
34.6
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
22-8
May-79
Jun-79
Jul-79
9999 -9999
07
04
1-2
9.3
Jun-63
Jut-63
Jul-67
9999
-9999
50 8
Aug-63
1683
Aug 67
183.5
Aug-71
9999
Sep-63
(kt-63
Nov-63
Dec-63
Jan-64
Sep-67
Oct-67
Sep-71
9999
Aug-75
Sep-75
-9999
-9999
Aug-79
Sep-79
Qct-75
-9999
Oct-79
9999
9999
9999
Nov 67
114.7
60.8
___ 63
Oct-71.
Nov-71
9999
9999
9999
Nov 7S
9999
Nov 79
9999
Dec 67
___ 2 9
Dec 71
Dec-75
-9999
9999
9999
Jan-76
9999
-9999
Dec-79
Jan-68
Feb-64.
Mar-64
Apr 64
9999
9999
9999
Feb-68
Mar-68
Apr-68
May-68
Feb-76
Mar-76
Apr-76
-9999
-9999
9999
■9999
-9999
Jan-80
Feb-80
MarSO
Apr-80
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
May- 76
Jun 68
0.2
9999
Jun-76
Jul-76
May-80
Jun-80
9999
9999
1703
304.1
Jul 68
Jul-80
Aug-80
9999
-9999
Jan-72
Feb-72
Mar-72
Apr-72
May-72
Jun-72
Jul-72
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
Aug-68
Sep-68
Oct-68
160,6
90.6
Aug-72
Sep 72
9999
9999i
Aug-76
Sep-76
-9999
133
583
182.7 129,6
Sep^fiO
31.8
Oct-72
9999
Oct 80
Nov-68
Nov-7 2
9999
Dec-68
Dec 72
9999
Jan-73
Feb-73
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
3.1
16.7
Ocv76
Nov-76
Dec-76
Jan-77
Feb-77
38-9
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
Mar-73
Apr-69
May-69
Jun-69
Apr-73
May-73
Mar-77
Apr-77
■9999
Miy-77
Jun’77
Jul 69
-9999
9999
182,8
Jun-73
Jul-73
Aug-73
-9999
Jul-77 Aug-77
Sep-69
-9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
Nov-80
Qec-80
Jan-81
JefrSl
Mar-81 Apr-81
May-81
Jun-81
Jul-81
Aug-81
Sep 81
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
9999
111.1
Sep-73
9999
Oct-69,
14.3
Nov-69
13
0.5
Oct-73
Nov-73
Dec-69
Dec-73
21/01/2011Bridge River Mean Monthly Flow (m’s'l
F ow
-9999
-9999
Date
Jan-86
Date
Date
Jan-82
Feb-82
Mar-82
Feb-86
1.
Apr-82
9999
-9999
May-82
Jun-82
Jul-82
•9999
Mar-86
Apr-86
May-86
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.0
Apr-94
May-94
-9999
7.3
89.9
Aug-82
-9999
9999
Jun-86
Jul-86
ur-86
0.9
0.4
0.3
2.5
Feb-94
Mar-94
150.0
133.2
119.2
25.0
Jan-90
Feb-90
Mar-90
Apr-90
May-90
Jun-90
Jul-90
Date
Jan-94
Jun-94
Jul-94
Aug-90
280 2
Aug-94
130
77.6
199.3
Sep-82
Oct-82
9999
-9999
Sep-86
Sep-90
Oct-90
109.8
33.0
Sep-94
147.0
Oct-86
Oct-94
Nov-82
Dec-82
Jan-83
-9999
Nov-86
5.1
Nov-90
6.8
Nov-94
29.0
7.4
-9999
9999
9999
Dec-86
Jan-87
1
Dec-90
18
Dec-94
3.0
jep-9S Oct-98 Dec-98
Feb-83
Feb-87
0.3
0.8
0.5
0.2
3.7
28.3
64.2
165.2
Jan-91
Feb-91
1.3
0.5
Jan-95
Feb-95
Jan-99
Feb-99
Mar-83
Apr-83
•9999
0.1
Mar-87
Apr-87
May-87
Mar-91
Apr-91
-9999
-9999
Mar-95
Apr-95
1.3
0.7
0.5
0.3
Apr 99
May-83
0.0
11.9
55.4
201.8
May-91
Jun-91
Jul-91
-9999
9999
May-95
29
Jun-83
Jul-83
Jun-87
Jul-87
Jun 95
39.9
Aug 83
Aug 87
Aug-91
-9999
158.7
Jul-95
May-99
Jurv99
Jul-99
5ep-83
200.6
Sep-87
78.6
Sep-91
191.7
Aug-95
Sep-95
127.1
216.6
101.4
Aug-99
Sep-99
Oct-83
Nov-83
29.1
3.8
Oct-87
Nov-87
95.6
283
Oct-91
Nov-91
30.8
8.1
Oct-95
Nov-95
Dec 83
1.3
0.4
Dec 87
Jan-84
Feb-84'
Mar-84
Apr-84
5
1.3
0.7
0.5
Dec-91
Jan-92
Dec-95
Jan-96
04
0.1
Jan-88
Feb-88
Mar-88
Feb-92
Mar-92
0.1
Apr-88
0.1
Apr-92
Feb-96
Mar-96
Apr-96
May 84
Jun-84
0.2
5.3
May-88
Jun-88
0.5
9.3
May-92
Jun-92
Jun-96
_ Jul-84
Aug-84
49.4
Jul-88
344.1
Jul-92
43.1
Jul-96
64.7 Aug-88
394.1 Aug-92
218.7 Aug-96
-9999
Sep 84
Oct-84
76
21
1.5
07
Sep-88
Oct-88
Nov-96
Dec-96
_ 0.3
Dec-88
Jan-89
276.0
68.3
14,2
4.6
Sep-92
Oct-92
Nov-92
Dec-92
145.4
108.7
18.1
5.6
Sep-96
Oct-96
51.5
Nov-84
Oec-84
Jan-85
Feb-85
Nov-88
-9999
_ 0.1
_ Feb-89
Jan-93
Feb-93
Mar-85
00
Mar-89
2.3
1.3
0.8
Mar-93
-9999
0.8
Jan-97
Feb-97
Mar-97
_ Apr-85
00
Apr-89
May-85 Jun-85
Jul-8S
0.5
_4J
May 89
__ 2.4
Apr-93
May-93
Jun-93
Jul-93
0.6
-9999
50.9
Apr-97
May-97
_ 7.9
Aug 85
186.4
287.4
Jun-89
Jul-89
10.3
9999
22S.3
117.6
Jun-97
Jul-97
Aug-89
Sep-85
Oct-85
Aug-93
230
208.6
-21.8
Sep-89
154.9
Sep 93
IOcV89
62.1
13.7
Oct-93
199.8
76.9
Sep-97
Oct-97
Nov-85
Dec-85
88
Nov 89
47
Nov-93
16.2
Oec-89
5.0
Dec-93
4.2
Nov-97
Dec-97
J2.2
126.0
187.1
113.5
1333
537
14.7
4
Append *C1J
Monthly Flow (m s ’)
Date
Feb-Ob
Mar-06
Flow
-9999
■9999
-9999
9999
-9999
jun-06
-9999
-9999
-9999
Nov -06
9999
9999
•9999
Feb 07
Mk-03
Mar-07
-9999
-9999
9999
Apr-03
May-03
Jun-03
Jul-03
Apr-07
May-07
-99991
38.1
203.7
308.6
233.0
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep_07'
-9999
-9999
-9999
Aug-D3
Sep-03
Oct-03
■9999
9999
-9999
-9999
Nov-03
Dec-03
Jin-04
-9999
9999
-9999
-9999
-9999
-9999
Jeb-04
Mar-04
Apr»Q4
0ct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
9999
-9999
9999
_ Miy4J4
May-08
Jun-08
-9999
-9999
Ju 108
-9999
Aug-08
-9999
Sep-03
-9999
Oct 08
Nov^OS
-9999
-9999'
-9999
71/01/2011EtM Dm?** tfEftyw. Alrwfr) ^rafrrj^ E*!*?
Efaftn Xti /rr^Xsw ifc/ DrtfMjr Prvp1****=•’
ANNEX D2
MONTHLY observed flow for gilgel beles river near MANDL'RA
tr nc>"urrcn (2)
1
5 Mr-ItFt&af De*vvuth- tfEitoapia, M/wtry tf Wafer & Entr^ Efiaefiua Mfr IrrigatXM jitd DrwuQt Prvpt.r
° Kn^rcct ynearMandura
River Mean Monthly Flow (mV)
Date
Jan-86
Date___
Flow
Date
J an-90
Flow
2.6
Date
Jan-94
9999
Jan-98
Flow 9999
Feb-90
1.9
1,6
1.4
1.8
4.2
Feb 94
1,2
0,7
OS
0.9
7,8
Feb-98
Mar-90
Mar-94
Mar-98
Apr-90
May-90
Jun-90
Apr-94
May-94
Jun-94
Apr 98
May-S&
Jun-86
Jul-86
May-98
Jun-98
___ 12 1.8
___ 18 2.3
15.1
Jul-90.
Aug-90
38.6
Jul-94
Aug-94
Jul-98
9999
104 0
Aug 98
-9999
Sep 90
798
Oct-90
-9999
5ep_98
Oct-98
-9999
9999
-
Nov 86
Nov 90
28
Sep-94
Oct-94
Nov-94
Nov 98
13 2
Dec 86
Dec 90
1.0
Dec 94
Dec-9j
03
25.1
483
38.4
15.2
5.8
2.9
15
-9999
Jan-87
Jan-91
Jan-95
Jan 99
3.3
Jeb33 JdarflI
Apr-83
May-83
Jun-83
Jul-83
Aug-83
Sep-&3
tkt-83
Nov-83
Ctec-B3
_ Jan-84
Jeb-84
Mar-84
Jpr34 May-gj Jun-84
0.9 Jeb 87
0.5 Mar-87
Feb-91 03
Feb-95
Mar-91
9999 Mar-9S
D.9 Feb-99
0.5 Mar-99
03
0.3
0,9
14.0
34.7
377
Apr-87
May-87
Jun-87
Jul 87
Aug-87
Sep 87
Apr-91 9999
May-91 9999
Apr-95 04
May-95 09
Apr-99
May-99
Jun-91
Jul-91
Aug-91,
9999
9999
685
Jurv95
Jul-95
Aug-95
Sep-95
38.1
61.4
41.1
12.8 Oct-87
Nov-87
Dec-87
Jan 88
Feb-88
Mar-88
Apr 88
May-88
21.7
24.7
66.2
26.1
24,5
ISO
16.5 Jun-99
Sep 91 423
Jul-99
Aug 99
Sepn99
Oct-91
Nov-91
14.9 Oct-95 203 Oct-99
2.6 Dec 91
1.3
0.4
Jan-92
Feb92
0.5 Mar-92
5.3 Nov-99
3.2 Oec-99
1.7 Jan-00
0.6 Feb-00
0.4 Mar-00
03
0.7
2.2 Nov-95
0.6 Dec 95
Jan-96
Fet>96
Mar-96
Apr-96
May-96
Jun-88 9 1
Jul 88
Aug-88
60 5
79.1
40.1
26,6
7,7
-9999
Apr-92
May-92
Jun-92
Jul-92
Aug-92
Sep 92
Oct-92
Nov-92
Dec-92
Jan-93
-9999
30-7
57,3
57,0
Jun-96
Jul-96
Aug 96
Sep-96
52.2 Oct-96
11.8 Nov-96
0.7
-9999
15.5
-9999
■9999
-9999
193
6.6
Apr-00
May-00
Jun-00
JukOO
Aug-00
Sep-00
OctOC
Nov -00
-9999
2.5
0-8
1,9
5.1
J)ec-96
Jan 97
Feb-97
Mar-97
Apr-97
May 97
Jun-97
Jul-97
3.4 Dec-00
1,9
Jan-01
Jeb-89
Mar-89
Apr-89
Jun-89
Jul-89
Feb-93 14
Mar-93
Apr-93
May-93
15.9
49 4
Jun-93 243
Jul’93 413
1.3 Feb-01
1.8 Mar-01
1.6 Apr-01
4.3 May-01
19.4 Jun-01
43.7
86.3 Aug-93
75.3
Sep-93
Oct-89
Dec’89
27.4 Oct-93
Nov-93
Dec 93
46.7
-9999
-9999
-9999
Aug-97 9999
Sep-97
Oct-97
30.0
32-1
Nov-97 148
Jul-01
Aug 01
Sep-01
JJct-01
tJov-01
18
1.2
0.9
3.3 14.8 31.7
9999
9999 -9999
11,4
4.8
2.9
1.8
1.1
12
4.8 12.7
28.0
86.2
51.6
47.2
167
6.2
3.7
2.1
14
1.0
1.6
12
37.7 48 S 49.6
22.7 10.0
9999 Dec-97
4.5 Dec-01
07/12/20101
Mandura River Mean Monthly Flow (m’s )
Date
Flow
Date
Flow
Jan-02
3.3
Jan-06
-9999
Feb-02
1.9
Feb-06
-9999
Mar-02
1.7
Mar-06
•9999
Apr-02
2.6
Apr-06
-9999
May-02
1.8
May-06
-9999
Jun-02
82
Jun-06
-9999
Jul-02’
19.9
Jul-06
-9999
Aug-02
■9999
Aug-06
-9999
Sep-02
-9999
Sep-06
9999
Oct 02
-9999
Oct-06
-9999
Nov-02
■9999
Nov-06
-9999
Dec-02
-9999
Dec-06
-9999
Jan-03
2.3
Jan-07
9999
Feb-03
1.9
Feb-07
-9999
Mar-03
1.8
Mar-07
-9999
Apr-03
0.7
Apr-07
-9999
May-03
0.9
May-07
•9999
Jun-03
8.5
Jun-07
-9999
Jul-03
72.1
Jul-07
-9999
Aug-03
53.5
> Aug-07
-9999
Sep-03
S4.4
1 Sep-07
-9999
Oct-03
25.6
5 Oct-07
-9999
Nov-03
5.
7
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L - a J»-«uDcO3cnS «b»J<>5^-4>ov
=
?Kg«KSS
*-S-£-82*?S
8
U U A l£ a> LU LU
W tF tJ CU GJ 4»
CR *U
z
I*8!®
■j 5» 55 SstSaUHUslHUmSB
...... ’shsJSW
-*4>KaataKK>
• 2 r ;
-- *1 -J O
^ISSS
i^stl
au°ic
— a*. »- '* >
sicxagsa-itp 3 s«8e sass-s sass csss U43ull«*SnmSlWlaS33«SSI2
eases
asm
8<jmS«
Sm*
2Sfggs§S2§3f5SiSS§f25«??^ff5f
_____«■_O_«_»_O_o____ ,___ xaassi’SfsssKe^iarssf 9 2ges*m«*“3Jsm»m?sffam«
Jf f
M •> O £h w
Ss^bb
f
K £ £ 2 •_- 555ifi55pS55sbfail"5SZrSSSSrSc *EjS""
Ju
Oc
□k
' ,. -
1
3
3
4
5
I
?
1
1
10
II
•2
•>
U
15
if
•7
!«
If
20
21
n
n
24
25
3
27
3
3
»
JI
HtBlMCM
I4HHIT
iAwmt
Sa*riV*b* H60D4 Veer. 2007 QLGE18G w UMOURA (1 !«0W)
'r^-Srm ’ypt Flow (cunees)
UtryirtB Op/mot Ar»» fTSOsQlun
Jw
F«b
JU
Ort
J*
1
2
3
4
5
I
7
4
0
W
H
U
13
K
»l
17
14
15
ft
21
22
23
24
23
2t
?>
21
?3
30
31
2',C’/20*1IIIOO* Yw
saw GKGtl M nwrUNCUKA 1116004) Tr^S«WTlP« Mw**
UI/LO lLOfl«ja« Ftovwton 676.0 »q»«n
jpn F«0 Mar Aar
Jun
1
2
>
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
16
16
17
16
U
20
21
22
23
34
n
29
27
21
»
30
31
Mev-
Ro»(MCM]
MtuTtfrr
lAnrrxn
Rtmc/I l’nm|
S«a*cr NjT>b<- 1160C4 vMr 2009 S»«iorNafM GlLGEL BE r«r MANOIIRA(116(XM) Ttra-Sertes Type Row <eurnpca)
LMtxk 1 Lnjftjd- Elevator Area . 6?b0 aq arm
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
6
9
Id
11
1?
13
14
’6
19
It
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
26
X
30
31
*an
►■fa* IMCMj
Uar.*Ii.,'T
Mnmurr.
*V»o*f i'»im;
Jun
0. Appends D4) J-Mar II' I If
Mr* 
f Minitn ofTjttr& Ettrr^
EltuCun Nik Imptron and Dw^t Pr+ta
■bUSrthUMoR^^.,
uf pn»MC' P'* '
f
126.0
182.6
124.9
average value (when iherr t* no
Note non italic is observed value, italic is infilled value fix Cdgd Beks over gauge).
13 May H!fdffuJ 
RfMi ? F.rtrtfvj. Mtnufry tflTirtfr <*• Fnrrgi
L/^pw» .Vr> /rrcjufrM jkJ Drurfart Fntrf
’ J 4 SrOla \X 'atrr Resources 2)
uM'Wrr, ^IT jfrr d-Ew®
H Ay. Jn/ZAwy j%nr
ANNEX 06
monthly flow estimated using a regional approachJ'rtJerw’ DvoctjUc Rrt'abb, iff E/trtfHL Atfffify offT'alrr & fc*rrg) EfNapwi i\'/Jr /rn^ifimr urn/ Drjtj& Pnta
I b J’4 ScOla Water Rmourcc* f2)
uft
weir and itoragf dam (mV')
%
,Ces 2)
iJAUv-ll
IFuM
f.'ta N/*
e'Ethnpia. Mtmitn •fV’dtrr& Emttq -«<< PnffH4T IW
Natural flow ettimated for right diversion weir (mV1
HL.__393
_ 18.8
HZ 1 41.2
118.2
48.2
103.3
L’b F4 SfOl j Water Rewurccx |2)
uVJ 7-?“T"
ANNEX D7
Gl'IDE FOR OPTIMISING WATBAL PARAMETERS 5„„ a ANDFhM Dntmih- fyM. of Efhnpoa, Mutufrf of ITtfrr «*• E<r»jr EAo^un X/Jf Irrtptto* aid Dmfgt Pryorf
Ub J *4 SrOla Water Resources (2)Mfaufy ^irofer
**&
- **/p <0.2
f ftfClNTAnON ("mall)
( ar**alJ)
[aAjam j' m sod -eiiw afnaty)
i vrtocc runoff* 'ljrpr vahn Ind ro
as grace runoff
•sub surface
Ir^d)
Small
Srruli
Medium
'Mum
/ur 5r
^ C^UtTi
’ P°^tk.
a
n• 1 I I
frderw
. Mimjfrt •< Wafer & Enrrg
htfapat .\t/f im&lH* Md .Onrap Prtjttf
L'b F4 SrOla Water Resources (2)
uANNEX D8
AL DAII Y MAXIMUM FLOW FOR MAIN BELES AT BRIDGE STATION' 1 /i
=3
hW Dwntif Rrtrfc- of Fjbcpa. Minify cf ITtier
Etbtofiait Silt
j*4 D^xmo^ Pnyft/
lib F4 SrOla U'jtcr Reserve* 2)Annual Maximum Instantaneous Daily Flow MAIN BELES at BRIDGE
Flow
3
(m /s) Date
1962
397.0
16/08/1962
1963
1926.0
11/12/1963 1
1964-
- 698.0
18/07/1964
"^1965^
339.0
07/08/1965
1966
392.0
26/08/1966 1
1967
328.0
31/07/1967
1968
376.0
25/07/1968
1969
412.0
16/08/1969
1970
207.0
24/08/1970
1971
-
1972
-
i'
" 1973
414.0
02/08/1973
1974
474.0
23/08/1974
1975
52.0
01/07/1975
1976
368.0
03/08/1976
1977
-
1978
251.0
17/09/1978
1979
168.0
19/07/1979
1980
•
-
1981
-
•
1982
-
• !
1983
748.0
05/09/1983 |
1984
182.0
06/09/1984
1985
1549.0
31/08/1985
1986
481.0
08/09/1986
1987
646.0
22/08/1987
1988
1062.0
27/07/1988
1989
769.0
30/07/1989
1990
767.0
08/08/1990
1991
755.0
24/07/1991
1992
585.0
21/08/1992
1993
807.0
14/08/1993
1994
507.0
29/08/1994
1995
790.0
08/08/1995
_ 1997
__ 1998
2000
1996
.1999
_2OO2_
_ 1986.0
24/08/1996
714.0
29/10/1997
770.0
09/08/1998
580.0
30/08/1999
1032.0
200l
17/08/2000
737.0
30/08/2001
__ 2QQ3
378.0
13/08/2002 1
758,0
05/08/2003
509 0
L_ <005
21/08/2004
654.0
07/08/2005 |
C5Fj!uf*tx Nik imrjfiot j/ui Drmnajjt Prwr.T•*^■*9** 'W’Wwy *irMrr e. r
''^ & !W** *•* I>na^ Pr^ftT
ANNEX D9
^UAL DAILY MAXIMUM FLOW FOR GILGEL BELES NEAR MANDIRA
IJ-MiT II•/ E/httyu. Mtwtn *f atrr Etftfgf
/•.’AMfM-’t Nwif < rnfo&i>< mJ Dnaugr ProttJ
r
l b M SrOIa Water Resource* (2)Annua' Maximum Instantaneous Daily Flow
--------- GIG EL BELES MANDURA
Flow
3
Year
(m /s) Date
1962
-•
^963
-
1964
--
1.965
-
1966
--
1967
-
1968
-•
1969
-•
1970
••
1971
-
1972
--
1973
--
1974
--
1975
-
1976
-
I1
1977
--
1978
--
1979
-•
1980
•-
1981
--
1982
120.8 20/08/1982
1983
138.8 02/09/1983
1984
97.7 13/09/1984
1985
--
1986
377.5 17/09/1986 I
1987
270.1 15/08/1987
1988
255.1 14/08/1988
_ 1989
341.6 23/08/1989
1990
395.5 30/08/1990
1991
221.7 14/07/1991
1992
219.7 28//07/1992]
1993
162.9 30/06/1993
1994
130.0 05/08/1994
1995
198.1 07/08/1995 1
1996
__ 1997
99.1 14/08/1997
__ 1998
1999
-
-
1,
— 2000
249.4 12/09/2000
2001
2002
163.7 27/09/2001 1
—2003
190.5 19/07/20031
—2004 L 2005
161.S 02/07/2004 193.1 24/09/2005 ]
714)1/2011Ftdern!
Miautr) ITa/rr and Entrjp
Ethncu* Mr and Draiiu* PryrfANNEX El
SUSPENDED SEDIMENT CONCENTRATIONS FOR LAKE TANAlrn ^bl>* *** Pn’*V P’*t>Con-rrtT.ilW''
&U ' -+ ' ,Kr>n.1rtr»' urtjrnBtn
J4h*r
Wageeh M«g«ch _
Basin
2__ “~_1 _ .
_
h
Nteg*c __ Megcct) _ Migebh _ Gilgel Abty Gilgei Abiy
Gjlgel Abiy_ Megech
Meg«eh Mugech Megech Megeth Megcu'h= Qilgri Abay Gllge'Atiy Gilad Ahey Mcgech Megtch
Mfe-jcch_____
— -
AJF8ZO AjaZO
A/ezo AjflZO AztiZQ AznZO
504
452
M«ro¥ifli
MiffliWi
Arezn
Az® 2b
Azeic
Azezd
350 ______ S3?
—
Azeza
Arezo
MflfHtWl Memwi
Merawi
Dill
21-Feb-PO 21-Feb-90 21-Feb-9C IO-Aug-90 10-Aug-90 10-Aug-BO
1B-Jan4X) 15-Jin-OO
02 Aug-90
27-May-92
27-Miy-92
27 May 92
14*Miy-93
14-May-93
TA-Mfiy-OS
D7-May-B3
Gavge / heloht iffil
0.74 O.M 0.74
1 29
1 29
1 29
2 45
2 45
2 45
0 75
0 75
0 75
0 B3
0 33
0.33
050
3id Coocerttra
187
177
230
6,307
mint
177
U7^Muy-93
07-May-93
0 50
0 50
Azazo
be-Qct’94
t 00
Flaw Imlfcl
0 04
0 04
0.04
B.«
896
896
195.94
IBS 94
195 94
005
005
005
0.19
0 19
0.19
359 3 59 3 59
261
Depth
(ml
OK
a o?
004
0 62
am
0 35
750
5 60
490
0 03
0 10
0.17
0 33
3 36
021
0,77
0.67
0 45
057
WkWi(m)
0.7C
1 70
250
800
12 00
1600
14.00
20 00
41 00
0 40
0.80
1 20
1 10
2 30
2.50
a.oo
16.00
22 DO
2 20
2.755
3.673
3.4M
368
366
315
455
629
529
175
166
172
253
229
AZ«JO
AzeiC
[Ofl-Od-94 1 00
OO-Ocl-M
M'5ep-03
1 00
2 00
261 □ 58
2.61 036
4 2D
8 20
189
254
0M/&4 ’Mam Belts Main Hefes Ma^n Belts
MetStofll
Metekel
MetekeF
oe-Sep-03
2 BO
150 22 2 26
150 22 9.17
9 75
19 50
912
1,239
(JB-S-ep-03 280
150 22 1^3
□M/CM
Mam Belts Maul Belts
_
Mam Betas
Martekel
09-Sep-C 3
3 04
t4fl.7Q 1.68
29 25
W 75
950
1.406
Mdikel
OMop-03
3 04
Meiekel
OB-Swp-tl J J 04
MB 70 BS4
146 70 3 23
20 SO
31 OO
1.333
1,202
22U.'CM__Gummara
Lake Tina
16-Aug-O* 4M
Gummara_
Lake Tina 16-Aug-04
496
T17 TO. 3M
117 10 4 12
11 7Q
27.70
3.277
3.443
Gum min
Lake Tana 16-Aug-C* 496
221/04 __ Gumman
Lake T»nn 17-Aug-04
6 23
117 10 290
207 80 5 52
34 70
11.70
2.605
5,442
Gum nun
Lake Tint 17-Aug-W
6 23
_ Gummin. Gtiqel Abay
"Giigei Abiy Giigel Abey_ G«ig^Abay' Giigel Abay GHgal Abay Grigel^Abay Giigtl Abay Giigni Abay G*g«l Abiy_
G *S*'
_/G iky* | Ably _ Megeeh ___ _ Megech
Lake Tin*
17-Aug-M
6 23
207 Ml 5 67 207 flO 3
27 70
34 70
5.85J
4 815
2
224/04
228/04
229/04
441/%
4*4/05
WTO
Menawri Merawi Merawi Meriwi Merawi Merawi Merawi Merawi Merawi Merawi Merawi Merawi
IB-Aug-04
IB-Awg-04
IB-Aug-04
22-Aug-‘34
22-Aug-04
22-Aug-04
2 3-Aug-04
2 3-Aug-04
23 Aug-04
17-Fai>05
_2' —3
- __f “
-
-J
"-3’~ ■ — 2 ~
__
_ jdagtEh
G^el Ably
- GOqbI Abay_
- ^*9*1 Ab*y
_ Megecr
—
Azezc
Axcec
Azttzo
Me raw
Merawi
Merawi
17 Feb-05
17-Feb-05
11-M«r*0$
11-M»f-05
1FMar-05
07-Jun -05
07 Jun-05
07-Jun-05
2 11
2 11
211
196
1.96
1 B6.
2.30
2 30
2 30
0 41
041
0.41
1 09
1 09
1.09
045
045
0.45
149 53
149 53
149 53
11943 11943
119 4-3 17949
179.49
179.49
2 77
277 2 77
0 11 0 11
o iT
3 53 353
3 53
2.10
149
1.01
T 36,
1 25
15 40
30 40
45 40
1830
30 30
1 07' 45 30
1 90
1 55
1 07
0 39
0 44
0 42
0 30
0 35
0 34
0 44
OX)
0 76
15.40
30 40
45 40
7.20
14 20
21^0
1.00
2 00
260
7.30
1430
21.30
3 552
r
ISM
3,219
2,721 2,535 2.220 3.827 3.469 3.145
122
121
125
300
389
2.192 2.154
r-iio Samprm
—
2 168
—----------- —,
V2/O5'
173^5
M*g»Cb _
M^gech _ jMegeeh
MtgicjC —
- M^©Ch_
- _.Gumma<i QumiTLaJn '
-
- —
Azero Azeze Afw? ~ Ajmjsci
.Aj—jfi Anas
Amdp AUzn Az*£.Q
02 Sep-05
02-Sep-05
02 Sep-0 5
03-So^05
O3-SgU35_
03-Sep-05
04^Sep-05
04-Sep-05
04-Sep-05
1.80 1 60 1.60
1 57
1 57
1.57
IM 1 54 1 54
set
961
sot
9.78
9 78
9 78
6.67
6.87
6 67
□ 74
054
□ 32
□ 74
052
024
6 70
0,49
6.00
12.00
16 00
6 00
1200
1800
6 00
278
281
205
192
211
213
189
— _
----- --.
—_. --------------
- .— —
’
-
____ 1200
-— — •
I
0 34
__
V aria -
7*05
-
Gumtnia" ^LirriiTkJrH GurhiTtarQ Gummara
-
—
■_—
204
5 505
S 046
4.566
______3.951
— — — _
-------- -
__3’ ■ - -_1‘ ■■"
_2"
-
Gjwpmira ' Qutrimi^ "
05-Sep-05
OS-Sep-05
05--StpO5
OtLSep-05
06-SepOS
oo-Sep-os
07-Sip-QS
91 50
1950
28 50
9 50
1950
26 50
11.70
____ 3.302
2.818
——
-
-------------- -- I
----------- —
1_1f/99
Gumjnir,-
- Cummin
- Gumm^ ~“
a
—
Like Tiru
Laki Tan*
Like Tern
Like Tain
Like Tana
Lake^Tnria
LakeTm
.Lakejiru
Lake Tana
Like Tani
L*ke_Tin_
□7-SoJ-05 _ 07-Se ©-05
JT-Jd-06 17-JU-Ofl
4 75
4 75
4.75
5.51
5 51
5 51
5 70
___ 5 70
5 7Q 359
96 13
96 13
B6.13
4
_ J ® *o 146 50
~ MB SO 152 71
_ 15271 is?
M12
-—J
3.26
3.60
3 09
387
473
4 42
4 39
4 70
2 50
2 16
___ ___ 3A77 ? am
3 69
__ SO 12
_ 20 DO
2.871
—------------------
Fuse Sarnj
1
21/01/201
i 11
11
o'S'S
g.3i3
r
1 11
1 ul>*
■?s:River
Basin
F^d
3__
1
2
3
1
2
3____
Ub Mr 112/99
-—— —— — -
. -— —
Oat o 17 Ju4 06
Gauge 1
freight Im)
Plow
Gummiri Gummart GlMTimRCB Gummara
Gummara
Gummara Gummara
Lako Tim
Lake Tana
Lake Tana
Lake Tana
Lake Tana
Lake ana
x
Lake Tana
--
18-JU-06
18-Jul-06
18-Jul-06
28-Jul-06
28-Jul-06
28-Jul-Ofi
3 89
4 12
4 12
4 12
4 34
4 34
4 34
50 12
62 99
__ 62 99
____ 62 99
?3 7q
7370 ____ 73 70
D «w>
——Im)
?32
3 35
2 58
2 77
3 3? ___ Lg —_?53
-
1 0qq
20 00 ^■--3000
—--bo !yi
"ti;
hl
^,Appendu Fir „^'
Alfctoj **T>rr H
N'* /"*’"'<
Pm**' A’1*/
ANNEX Fl
ANNUAL DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALLFttM Pt wrote RtpM'i tf&tapa. .Mwtrj of IVafer & Flurry Erttoftuif .\'tJr imgutm aad Dnaa^gt Prjtti
rs <’Urcrt (})
nh jr;_
i*n
ir]
jo*
j3/Dtu'L9r;
si/flVSTlJ DJ.W,•:■?_?< UW:9?4
II Wl/fc
11/57/1571
o*j,i n,|jj
IE/QK/1911 Siftwsjm
!V^1TO
.WilM
A-Vot; 1 w
"LWu1® EH/n7, nai D1/01/IW
W-IW
|TWtM»
jw/twi
T7 ,* «.
gr.WiMt
rtiWur? Xtf/I'
_1W4
JWiJ
J*M_ !•«
-
W«
*te
_ 18OJ_
- ^pJT
-«*L_LtoT 5«.b
15,7
«.i
**5
5*J
GJ*
ria.'at/jwi HAW15M
r.*?
- jfcK’-
——*_
u 5£l
. j&iwim
.. H.'LI¥mqq'
_
JQQ!
_
*• Jl?20CJ_
- - jjj^ag/jHQOjii
-IjJWkh
JT/WWl
5* a__ i*/oapMH
jyajftBos jMfl
lw? iyij
LMwiwg
!*/£■/2JTT
wne/itR
ML^e/TOCC
WQiftE. iLj^/jgg»
iVoyroua
iMowim CWW owwm* J VM/1 *15
JWW SuOfc/1***
aw.w
LH.L& -DOJ
zjjoiZzmi m^azzogj ITWrtOl
t&gLTO« uai/m jyw/zxi?FdbtfaM A'li /miw/xw J*d Pwap PnjttfANNEX G1
MONTHLY WATER LEVELS FOR LAKE TANAFtdrru/ Df/nocnjfa RfpMc of Ethiopia, Mim/fn' of IP.afrr & Entrp Ethiopian Nth Imgotton and Drutnage Pryrrf
l>b IM SfOU Water Rc«ou <x (2)
re
iiI a Hahir Par (mAOQl
t
Water
Date
Ian 64
Water lev*1 1786.20,
Date
Jan 68
level
1786.22
Water
level
Jan-72
1786.OS
Jan-76
1786. (tt
1786.01
Feb 72
1785 89
Mar-b*
178582
Feb-68
Mar-68
1785,83
1785.63
1785,47
Mar 72
178572
1785.52
1785.36
Feb-76
Mar-76
1785 87
1785.63,
Apr-68
Apr-72
May-72
Apr 76
1785 5^
May 68
> May 76
jun-64
1785 45
Jul 64
1785 82
Jun-68
Jul-68
1785 48
Jun-72
Jul-72
1785 23
Jun-76
1785.89
1785 54
Jul 76
1785.68
178593
178545
1785.74
1785 99
Aug-76
J 786.58
Sep §4
1786.89
1787-45
Aug-68
Sep-68
Oct-68
Nov-68
1786.59
1786.91
Aug-72
Sep-72
1786 31
Sep 76
178702
1787 28
1786 78
Oct-72
Nov-72
1736 27
Oct 76
178682
1786.94
1786 52
178609
1786.63
1786.35
1786.18
1785.98
1785.60
1785.43
Dec 68
1786.30
Dec-72
1785 91
Nov-76
Dec-76
Jan-77
Feb-77
178657
1786.34
Jan-65
Jarv69
Feb-59
Mar-69
Apr-69
1786 11
J an-73
1785.74
1786 14
Feb-6 5
1785.93
1785.76
Feb-73
1785 60
1785 96
Mar 65
Mar-73
Apr-73
May-73
Jun-73
1785 43
Mar >77
178S.77
Apr-65
178563
1785,50
1785.38
1785 23
1785 58
1785.47
May 65
May 69
1785 12
1785 41
1785 34
Jun-65
1785 50
Jun-69
Jul-69
Aug-69
1735 12
1785.44
Jun-fil
1785.73
Jul-65
Aug-65
Sep-65
1785,58
1785-57
1786.37
Jul-73 Aug-73
178539
178607
Apr-77
May-77
Jun-77
Jui-77
Aug-77j
1785 79
Auf-61
178663
1786 19
1786-55
Sep 61
1787 27
1786.57
Sep-69
178689
Sep-73
1786 57
Sep-77
Oct-77
1786 95,
Oct-0
Nw-61
1787.14
1786-82
Oct 65
1786.63
1786.48
1786.29
1786.09
1785.93
1785.76
Oct-69
Oct-73
1786 63
Nov-65
Dec-61
Jao62
1786 58
Dec 65,
1786 33
Jan-66
Nov-69
Dec-69
Jarv70
178668
1786.40 1786.17 1785-98 178583
1785.6?'
Nov 73
1786 42
Dec 73
178617.
Jan-74
1785 99
F
_ eb 62
1786 14
Teb 66
Feb-70
Mar-70
Apr-70
Feb 74
1785 82
Nov-77
Dec-77
Jan-78
Feb-78
Mar-62 Ar-62
1785,94
1785.52
Mar-66
Apr-66
May-66
Jun-66
1785 65
Mar 78
1785 76
1785 59
Apr 78
, May-62
1785.62
1785.45
1785.39
May 70
May 78
Jun-70
178548
1785.32
1785.19
Mar-74
Apr-74
May-74
Jun-74
178545
178536
1785.41
Jin-78
178639
1786.66
1786-39
1786.17
1785.98
1785.79
1785-62
1785.52
1785.42
Jul-66
178S.57
1786.20
Jul-70 Aug-70
1785.37
Jul-74 Aug-74
17fi5 83
Aug-66
1786 11
1786 57
Jul-78 Aug-78
1785.75
1786.47
Sep 66^
Oct 66
1786.72
1786.64
Sep 70
1786.67,
Sep-74
Oct-74
1787 10
Sep-78
Oct-78
Nov-78
1786,84
Oct-70
1786 63
1786 96
1786 76
Nov-66
1786.44
Nov-70
1786.43
Nov-74
1786 60
1786.4?
Pec 66
1786.22
Dec-70
178618
Dec-74
1786 34
Dec-78
1786.26
Jan-67
1786 03
Jan-71
1786.00
1785.84
1785.67
Jan-75
Feb-75
Mar-75
Apr-75
May-75
Jun-75
1786 13
Jan 79
1786 07
Jeb 67
1785 83
Feb 71
178598
1785-81
1785,59
178538
178531
Feb-79
Mar-79
Apr-79
1785-87
Mar-67
1785.69
Mar-71
Apr-71
May-71
Jun-71
Jul-71
Aug-71
Sep-71
1785 73
Apr 67
1785.56
1785.38
1785.27
1785 44
1785 S3
67
Jun’67 Jul-67
1785.29
May 79
1785.44
178524
1785.52
1786.29
1786.83
1786-72
Jun-79
Jul-79
1785 38
1785.56
Jd-75
Aug-75
1785.61
1786.50
1787.30
1787.18
1786,80
1785-59
1786.53
Sep 67
1787.02
Sep-75
Ajg-79
Sep-79
Oct-79
178623
1786.63
Oct^67
1787.02
Oct 71
Oct-75
1786 59
Nov 67
178671
1786.46
Nov-71
Dec-71
1786 50
Nov 75
Nov 79
1786 26
Dec -75
1786.51
Dec 79
178641
1786.18
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1786.54
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1786,24
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Oct "02.
178629
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178606
[ DjC-02
178581
Nov-06
Det-Ob
178692
1786-69
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1785 55
Frt-03
178$-33
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1785.09
Apr-03
May-03
iun-03
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1784,57
178439
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^jug^3
1785 60
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1786.43
1786 64
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178647
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ANNEX G2
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217
206
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rear 1»4
Sratlon Marne ! LAJCfTANA MR 8AH»A DM
tkrne Sebat Type w*te< Lev* (metre*) Latitude . 1 L«ngrfi»t*e Area I 15319.fl mj km
Jar
r«b Mar Apr ***v Jun
1
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SIMM* Humber 111001
Year 1995
Statxr* Hame : LAKTTANA NR RAHIR DM
Tlme-Wr-ei type ; Water level (metres)
Latitude ILo^Hu* Area 15)19 0*0’*
Jan
Mar Apr May Mn
Set on 
X
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
I
9
10
11
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24
237
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23
262
254
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29
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Station Numbe- 111001 V«»
Station Name LAaRANA NR BAHIA OAR
ibre-lanei T^e Water level (metresI
Latitude . 1 longitude Area lS3l90w>kn»
MM
Ml
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1
2
1
4
5
b
7
9
•
10
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12
11
14
15
16
17
329
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324
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124
322
122
122
322
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31
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262
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2 63
16
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2 56
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11
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iV’isthOS'MOT lumber : 111001 V»4F. 2002 StatK*' Name tA<F7ANA N* HAH1R DAK Ttam-Sff** 1vP» water l*wl (m*tnil
LMitud* 1 UxwHwd** Area 15H9.0 **» •**
Jan frb
64*’
Apr Mev Jun 
j
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On
1
2
j
4
5
6
7
a
JOS 171 23 224 20S 163
102 2 76 249 2.2 704 162
3 179 2 44 J 11 1 92 162
2 9® 2 73 241 2 17 194 162
296 J 77 2 5 7 16 197 16 296 2.71 241 2 11 2 1 59
2.97 260 244 216 1 M 1 54
2 9t 261 2 44 2-15 194 156
• 296 2 67 2.43 2-14 1 94
IS
10
2J4 266 2 41 200
l a 133
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
11
10
296 2 66 2 35 211 1.76 132 29€ 266 234 2 12 1 11 131
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197 241 7 M 203 1 75 1 52
2.92 26 2 36 2.02 1 74 162
2 02 2 61 2 W 2.04 1 M 164
2 99 2 6? 226 2 02 1 66 1 54
206 2 04
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Jar Feb Mr Apr May Jun
Oct
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1
2
3
4
5
6
7
a
9
10
11
12
13
14
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*! iANNEX Hl
LAKE tana a beles areal rainfall using co-krigingk'ederu/ Df*rocrufii RjpMt oj Ethiopia. Mimrfiy afWattr & Entr^ Ethiopian Ni/t Irrigation anti Dnanagt Propel
tJM”11
Ub 1*4 SrOla Water Resources (2)
ii
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ANNEX H2
pro FOR SUB-CATCHMENTS USING THORNTHWA1TE METHOD
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134 8
2002
3
1364
1364
127 7
127 7
126 4
125 3
1318
1318
1318
130.4
1304
130 4
1266
127.8
129 2
129 2
1292
1232
123 2
1232
2002
4
138 0 1380 1290 129 0
1272
125 9
134.7
2002
2002
5
6
136.4
1170
136.4
117 0
135 2
128 6
135 2.
128 6
134 7
1 io n
1347
139 0
132.0
117 n
132 0
137 0
1320
137 0
127 9
133 0
128 7
133 8
129 7
1343
129 7
134 3
129 7
134 3
124 0
1303
1240
130 3
1240
130 3
1258
125 2
130.7
130 7
1)0 7
1291
1291
129 1
.
12S 0
1261
126 3
1263
126.3
124.0
124.0
124.0
2002
7
102 3
102 3
128.9
128 9
125 9
125 5
132 0
132 0
1320
129 9
129 9
129 9
125 3
126 4
127 3
127 3
127.3
1236
123 6
123 6
2002
8
102 3
302 3
127 0
127 0
123 9
123.7
1312
1312
131.2
128 3
128 3
128 3
123.9
124 5
1255
125 5
1255
122 0
122.0
122 0
2002
9
1110
1110
1210
121.0
1188
1187
1253
1253
1253
123 5
1235
123 5
1196
1198
1205
120 5
1205
1178
117.8
1178
2002
10
1147
114 7
1212
1212
119.1
1188
126 4
1264
1264
124.1
124 1
124 1
1201
1218
122.8
1228
1228
119 2
119.2
119.2
2002
11
102 0
1020
1136
1136
1095
1092
1162
116 2
116 2
114.7
114 7
114 7
111 8
112 8
115.5
1155
1155
109 6
1096
109 6
2002 1
12
96 1
961
116 9
1169
115 8
115 7
122)
122 3
122 3
121.7
121 7
121 7
1188
120 8
122.1
122.1
122 1
1056
1056
105 6
200)
1
1054
105.4
1180
118 0
116 5
1159
1219
1219
1219
122 0
122 0
122.0
120.1
121.7
122-2
122 2
1222
1165
1165
116 5
2003
2
113 1
1131
110 5
1105
1091
1088
114 6
114 6
114 6
113 2
113 2
113 2
110 8
112.3
112 8
112 8
112 8
134 8
134 8 1348
2003
3
1364
1364
1277
1277
126 4
125 3
1318
131 8
1318
130 4
130 4
130 4
126 6
127 8
129 2
129 2
129 2
123 2
123.2
123 2
2003
4
138 0
1380
129 0
129 0
127.2
125 9 I 134 7
134 7
134 7
132 0
132 0
1320
1279
128 7
1297
129 7
129.7
1240
124 0
1240
2003
5
136 4
136 4
135 2
135 2
133 3
132 0 | 1)9 0
139 0
139 0
137 0
137 0
1370
133 0
1338
134 3
134 3
134 3
130 3
1303
130 3
2003
6
1)70
1170
1286
128 6
125 8
125 2 | 130.7
1307
130 7
129 1
129 1
129 1
125 0
1261
1263
1263
126.3
124.0
124 0
124.0
2003
7
102 3
102 3
1219
128 9
125 9
1255 | 1320
132 0
132 0
129 9
129 9
129 9
125 3
126 4
117.1
127 3
1273
123 6
123 6
123 6
2003
1
102 3
102 3
127 0
127 0
123 9
123 7 1 131.2
1312
1312
128.3
128 3
128 3
1239
1245
125 5
125 5
1255
122 0
1220
122 0
2003
9
1110
1110
1210
1210
1118
1187 125 3
125 3
125 3
123.5
123 5
123.5
119 6
119 8
120 5
120 5
1205
117.8
1178
117.8
2003
10
114 7
114 7
1212
1212
1191
1188 ' 1264
126.4
1264
124 1 124 1 124.1 1201 1218 122 8
2003
2003
n
12
102 0
961
102 0
961
1136
116 9
1136
116 9
109 5
1158
1092 i 116 2
115.7 ' 1223
116 2
122.3
116 2
122.3
114 7
121 7
114 7
121.7
114.7
121.7
111 8
1188
112 8
1208
113-5
122 1
122.8
net
122 8
115 5
1192
109 6
119.2
109 6
1192
1096
122 1
122 1
105 6
105 6
2004
i
105.4
105 4
118 0
1180
116 5
115 9 1219
1219
1219
122 0
122 0
122 0
1201
1217
122 2
1222
122 2
200<
2
1131
1131
110 5
nos
1091
108 8 j 114 6
114 6
114 6
113 2
1132
1132
110 8
112.3
1128
112.1
112 8
134 8
2004
3
1)64
1364
127 7
1277
1264
1253 1318
1318
1318
130 4
130 4
130 4
126 6
127 8
129 2
1292
129 2
123.2
2004
4
138 0 1310 129 0
129 0
127.2
125 9 134.7
134 7
1347
1)2.0 132 0 132 0 127 9 1287
129 7
2004
2004
5
6
1)64
1170
136 4
1170
135 2
1286
135 2
128 6
133 3
1251
132 0 139 0
1252 130 7
139 0
130 7
1390
130 7
1)7 0
1291
137 0
1291
1370
129 1
133.0
125 0
133 8
1261 126 3
129 7
134 3
129 7
134 3
1240
130 3
1240
130 3
124 0
130)
176 3
1263
124 0
1240
2004
7
102 3
102 3
1219 1289
125 9
1255 137 0
132 0
132 0
179 9
129 9
129 9
125 J
1264 127J
127 3
127 3
123 6
2004
I
102 3
102 3
1270 127 0
123 9
123 7 1312
13)2
1312
126 3
128 3
1283
1239
1245 1 125 5
125 5
1255
1220
122.0
2004
9
1110
mo
1210 1 1210
118 1
118 7 123 3
125.3
125 3
123 5
123 5
123 5
1196
1198 1 120$
120 5
120 5
1171
1171
2004
10
114 7
114 7
1211 | 1211
119 1
nil 126 4
126 4
126 4
124 1
124 1
124 1
120 1
1211 1 1221
172 8
122 8
119 2
119 2
119 2
2004
11 1010
102 0
1136 1 1136
109 5
109 2 111 2
116 2
116 2
114 7
114.7
1147
111 8
112 8 1 ns 5
IBS
1155
1096
2004
11 96 1
961
116 9 1 116 9
HU
ns 7 i 122 3
122 J
122 3
121 7
in 7
121 7
1118
120 6 1 122 1
177 !
122 1
105 6 1165 116 5 116.5
134.8 1348 123 2 123 2
124 0 123 6 123 6
122-0
1178
109 6 109 6 105 6 1056 1 105 6
1005 1 105 4 105 4 116 0 I 1160 116 5 1169 121.9 171 9 1219 127.0 177 0 127 0
no 1
12! 7 I 122 2
122 7
2005 \ 2005
1 l 1131
S 1 1M4
113 1
136 4
110 5 1 110.5
117 7 I 127.7
109 1
126 4
)0t 1 i 114 6 125 1 1116
114 6
HU
114 6 Hit
113 2
1JO 4
113.7
no 4
111 2
1)0 4
122 2
112 9
1165
134 1
1165 1 1165 134 9 J IM 9
1266
127 6 i 129 2 J
1292
129 1
129 2
1212 1 123 2
r 1005
4 1 IMO . IMO
1 2005 1 5 1 1344 I 134 4
129 0 1 129 0 '.*5 j 1 tn j
in i
1 111 I
1259 1 1M.7
112 0 1190
IM /
mo
LM 7
IMO
132 0
IJ7 0
117
1J7 0
137 0
uro
127 9
1110
176 7 1 176 7 1 179 7 UJ * J IM J I IM 1 1
1/9 1
1MJ
124 0
124 0 I 124 0
DO J j 1J0 1 I !»J J
K
ISI oPttkral Dtmaaafic fapMc of Ethiopia Mimstrp Ethiopian Nik Inigot/c* and Drwwg PryMANNEX II
LAKE TANA NET EVAPORATIONFederal Democratic Rtpubhc of Ethiopia. Ministry of Water & Entrg< Ethiopian \'tie Irrigation anti Drainage Project
Ub F4 SrOla Water Resource* 2)i afce Tana Met Evaporation (mm)
[Year
1980
Month
Thorn thwiite
1
1153
1980
2
107.0
1980
3
1147
P 1980
4
105.5
1980
5
56.8
1980
6
-55.7
1980
7
-223.9
19B0
8
-2055
1980
9
-442
1980
10
307 .
1980
11
992
1980
12
1135
1981
1
115.3
1981
2
107,0
1981
3
114.7
1981
4
1055
1981
5
56.8
1981
6
557
1981
7
■223-9
1981
8
-205.5
1981
9
44.2
1981
10
30.7
1981
11
99.2
1981
12
113 9
1982
1
1153
1982
2
107,0
1982
3
114.7
1982
4
105.5
1982
5
563
1982
6
-557
1982
7
-223.9
1982
a
-205.5
1982
9
442
1982
10
30.7
1982
11
99,2
1982
12
1139
19B3
1
115.3
1583
2
107.0
1983
3
U4.7
1983
4
105-5
1983
5
56.8
1989
6
-SS.7
1983
7
■223.9
1983
8
-2053
_ m3
9
442
1983
10
30.7
1983
11
99.2
_ 1983
12
1139
1984
1
115.3
_ _ 1984
2
107.0
, 1984
Jg84
3
1147
4
105.5
_ 1384
5
56.8
___ 1984
6
-557
_ 1984
7
-2239
_ ,1984
8
-M5.5
L __ 1984
9
44.2
07/12*2013Year | Month | Thornthwaho
1984 10
30.7
1984
11
99.2
1984
12
113.9
1985
1
115.3
1985 1
2
107.0
1985 1
3
114.7
1985
4
105.5
1985 1
5
56.8
1985 1
6
-55.7
1985
7
-223.9
1985
8
205.5
1985
9
-44.2
1985
10
30.7
1985
11
99.2
1985
12
113.9
1986
1
115.3
1986
2
107.0
1986
3
114.7
1986
4
105.5
1986
5
56.8
1986
6
-55.7
1986
7
-223.9
1986
8
-205.5
1986
9
-44.2
1986
10
30.7
1986
11
99 2
1986
12
113.9
1987
1
115.3
1987
2
107.0
1987
3
114.7
1987
4
105.5
1987
5
56.8
1987
6
•55.7
1987
7
-223.9
1987
8
-205.5
1987
9
-44.2
1987
10
30.7
1987
11
99.2
1987
12
113.9
1988
1
115.3
1988
2
107.0
1988
3
114.7
1988
4
105.5
1988
5
56.8
1988
6
-55.7
1988
7
-223.9
1 1988
8
-205.5
1988
9
44 2
1988
10
30.7
1988
11
99.2
1988
12
113.9
1989
1
115.3
1989
2
107.0
1 1989
3
114.7 
1989
4
105.5
1989
5
56.8
1989
6
-55.7 
1 1989
7
-223.9Year t
Month
Thomthwalte
2004
2
1334
2004
3
161.4
2004
4
146.5
2004
5
148.6
2004
6
-27.4
2004
7
-262.2
2004
8
-1869
2004
9
-14.6
2004
10
80.5
2004
11
117.6
2004
12
122.0
2005
1
131.9
2005
2
134.7
2005
3
127.0
2005
4
135 8
2005
5
125.5
2005
6
•66 1
2005
7
■192.4
2005
8
•141.6
2005
9
32.3
2005
10
97 6
2005
11
118.6
2005
12
123.0
2006
1
115.0
2006
2
108.0
2006
3
122.0
2006
4
107.0
2006
5
-77.0
2006
6
•31.0
2006
7
1880
2006
8
-3610
2006
9
L0
2006
10
31.0
2006
11
99.0
2006
12
114.0
P_Lake_NETCK 80_.06)
6ANNEX JI
LAKE TANA LTA AND OBSERVED OCT FLOWFtdrral Dmttxranc Rtpttbtic of Ethiopia, Mtnufn of VFattr & Enerp Ethiopian Nik Irrigation and Drainage Prxytct
Ub 1*4 SrOla Wafer Resource* (2)
u'If
Year
Month
Lon term average
1995
6
Observe^
13.62
1995
7
4 36 "
36.13
1995
8
26~75 "
159.9
1995
9
14L84"
333.33
1995
10
26077
301.67
1995
11
190.2
1995
12
231 59
14887
112.88
1996
1
100 18
7007
1996
2
65 86
48.9
1996
3
45 47 '
32.97
1996
4
29 12
21.08
1996
5
.
17.26
14.24
1996
6
6.65
13 62
1996
7
4 36
36.13
1996
8
26.75
159.9
141 84
1996
9
333.33
1996
2607
10
301.67
1996
231 59
11
190 2
.
148.87
1996
12
112 88
100 IB
1997
1
70.07
65.86
1997
2
48.9
4547
1997
3
32 97
29 12
1997
4
21.08
17 26
1997
5
14.24
6 65
1997
6
13.62
4 36
1997
7
36.13
26.75
1997
8
159.9
141 84
1997
9
333.33
2607
1997
10
301.67
231 59
1997
11
190.2
14887
1997
12
112.88
100.18
1998
1
70.07
65 86
1998
2
48.9
45.47
1998
3
32.97
29.12
1998
4
21.08
1726
1998
5
14.24
6.65
1998
6
13.62
4.36
1998
7
36.13
26 75
1998
8
159.9
141 84
1998
9
333.33
260.7
1998
10
301.67
23159
1998
11
190.2
148 87
1998
12
112.88
100.18
1999
1
70.07
65 86
1999
2
48.9
45 47
1999
3
32.97
29 12
1999
4
21 08
17 26
1999
5
14 24
6.65
1999
6
13.62
436 
1999
7
36.13
2675
1999
8
159.9
141.84 
1999
9
333.33
260-7
1999
10
301.67
231 -59 _
1999
11
190.2
148 87
1999
12
112.88
100.18
2000
1
70 07
2000
2000
2
3
48 9
32 97
65-86___ _ 45.47
29.12
2000
2000
4
5
2108
14.24
17-26
6^13
436
2000
2000
6
7
36.13
Q Lake MR(80 06)
41599
333 33
ObWtd
14184
~26O7~
301.67
190.2
ll2.Bg
Z 2 3159 J 
,145 87 _
~1l_Q0.;8 ~
70.07
65.36
J8 9
32.97
2108
14 24
1362
36 13
2001
2001
159 9
333 33
HIM
30L67
190.2
260.7
23159
2001
2001
2002
1*8.87
112.88
70,07
2002
2002
2002
7002
2002
489
32 97
10018
6586
45 4?
2912
21.08
14 24
13,62
17-26
6 65
4 36
2002
36.13
26.75
14184
2002
260.7
231S9
2002
148.87
jOQ2
159.9
333.33
30167
190 2
112,88
7003
2003
70 07 
4£ 9
100-18
65.86
4$.47 
2003
2003
2003
2003
32 97
21 08
14 24
29.12
1726
665
13.62
36.13
436
2003
2003
2003
2D03
26.75
159.9
333.33
14184
260.7
301.67
190.2
112 88
70 07
231.59
2DO3
1*8-87
100 18
6SB6_
48-9
45 4?
32.97
21.08
29 11
1726
14 24
665
1362
36 13
159.9
333 33
<36
2675
14184
260.L
301-67
190.2
112.88
70.07
48-9
32.97
231.59
i48.87_
100.18
21.08
36.13
159 9
333.33QLake,MR(80j)6)
6J**™# Pl&rr
' *®’
obsebved r, 
Nea-°
tM^' //Federal Dfnro^ratic Repobbi of Efbtofxa, M/outy of Wafer c> Eoer# lifhtopian Nile J matron aod Dnuoage Project
.5^'
Ub 1-4 SrOla Water Resource. (2)41 077 IB? 874 736 9*3 141173 46.OM
14975
253 25
253 24
159 JJ
IOC 16
23W 227 715 215 561
165 96 S3 61fl 13 57B
122 52 LM94
193 55
292 75
M.15
,11311 159 959
I96J16
W 391
57 661
UJ16 3.161
15 22
7275
11438
102 iw
213 548
175 42
1H49*
159 12
66 335
106 &3
22 L95
62.704
156 677
195 J32
1*5143
32 12
ID 105
zoic*
36,361
167,764
Bl.ltt
256 W
155 167
Bitt
114.43
263 M
151.21
37005
10105
ft1! H r*Jrani n‘‘
I I I I I 1^
1B2 9?
2 82 7 A 166 56
GHgel Abbay at Me*awl at Addii Zemrn
26 174
126 711
127.208
47946
11 442
127.23
11 929
55.246
133.661
161 736
126 111
63 249
19 9 76
328 12
28805
155 491
20 2 588
638 09
155 489
543 67
72 249
307 82
19.693
7.213
39.41
192 52
358 81
293 16
179 85
102 49
238,72
236 99
136 89
13 938
101 596
176 255
133 538
41 068
296 23
190 637
217 297
573 32
162 761
435 54
234 61
42
11.047
129 33
rxDC/Qf}
2654 23
153 73)
548 6
96 139
330.75
185.84
18 317
134 47
123.74
408 28
469 29
35333
199 3
133 49
57 743
163.041
186 856
127 081
122 523
19 662
146.032
203.221
134 165
126 978
36 7D9
2000
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2001
2002
2002
67.166
150.911
205 904
128 698
41 187
13 861
4107
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
2003
132 16
13621
108 1
107.11
121 39
13299
163
139 16
126 04
114 32
101 97
38 225
144 916
168 355
99 699
28.947
10 146
0666 0 889
43 487 L78 433 184 224 173 784 32 719 10 187
106 48
106 47
27449
137.395 165 965
137 66b
64.005 11.4171
O7.12M’0Federal Democrati. R/pMc of Ethiopia. .Min/itry of Water and Enerp Ethiopian Nik Irrigation and Drainage PrvjertANNEX Ki
monthly flow for sobcatchments using IUUNRIN
I Uta •'Federal De/aoirafu Rrpabfa of Ethiopia. Minufry of Vater & Energy Ethiopian Nile Irrigation and Drainage Project
11b F4 SrO1a Water Resource? (2)
iinow»_nH inRtan(Wjtal
i
o7n7^Wc ildl_F to* 1- R■Upp«r
Megech
Upp«r
Gumar*
Gauge
Gumara
7 /“ i ut rI BO
ipRQ S
M9
T9’B
il’l
ISO
fiSO
Qi I
SOT
uI
MO
m
SFO
110
ISA
£5 0
err
rt
MM
io ri
nt.
b>
irtQE
'.■l‘K7
TE MT
tn
wi
£07
Ot
«E
srs
Kt
fit
fl I
STF
tffO
art
560
SOT
17 1
zrr
n
sore
«rt
wie
fet E
NFS
tit
trtt
ITG
n>
Ml
»S
W6
15 t
«t
tfl
Ml
rcr
167
01
soar
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/Frirrd Dmtrxttf faprfiu Erhiqna. Mimstiy 9} Water jnd kne^ F.thfefxaJi Nik Imjaftor Drain op Pnyertmonthly net reservoir evaporation
13-Mijf II
IFtdtral DwrOic P^pub/ic of Ethiopia, Miturty of IFafer & Enor^ Ethiopian -XW/ !m$afion and Drmnagr Fryar
Ub HSrth Waier Rcwurce, (2)
Dat/imoioYear
1985
1985
1985
1985
1985
1985
Megech
117.8
110.4
Rlbb
118.1
106 5
117.7
-27 2
120.1
109.8
123.5
1192
119.7
1985
1985
1985
1985
1985
1985
1986
1986
1986
-141.2
-215.7
102.5
-210 7
145 2
-298 5
•213 2
-12.6
-118.5
69 0
89.2
107,7
106.3
101.3
113.4
119.3
112.8
98.1
-259.0
78,r
118.0
1104
122.3
92.i
109.2
117.9
120.7
106.9
121.7
112 4
113 5
1986
119.7
124.5
-168.6
-269.3
>217.6
1986
1987
1987
1987
1987
1987
115 4
109 8
110.3
125 5
88 5
104.2
107,4
113.9
89 3
102.2
113.1
115.8
113.1
95.1
102,7
-59.8
120 7
1158
1090
1104
80 6 509
25.3
•104 7
-59.7
82 0
•2.1
•138.8
-224 0
-30.5
196.1
-103.3
14Q.5
-213 6
•897
•192 6
•257 1
1987
1987
1988
1988
1988
1988
1988
1988
1988
1988
114.6
118 0
75 6
127.5
122.2
102.1
121 6
120.6
121 8
99.1
130 9
121 6
986
129.8
117.2
110.0
120.3
81 2
79 1
1200
88.1
123.8
126.0
63.6
•18.5
-180.9
106.5
-32 3
-132.7
-416.9
-249 5
62.5
46.6
479 1
1988
114.7
118.0
108.2
-52.1
45.9
109.0
117.6
117.1
109.8
-195.5
790
•203.6
-1024
14,9
106.5
116.0
119.7
110.8
1146
121-3
1120
1989
1989
1989
106.7
1989
1989
1989
-23.6
-73.1
97 2
-184.5
-232.0
•241.1
-14.7
-263.0
■92.0
-337.2
-333.9
-14L9
1989
1990
100.2
104.1
111.4
107.6
119.9
109.0
1202
112.7
T MCTrxni07/12/2010Year
1995
1995
1995
199S
1995
Megech
Ribb
1108
103.6
•195.6
•228 6
j865
1995
1995
J68.0
1995
-48.7
1995
1995
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
-149.4
74.1
112.3
111.8
46?0
-39.2
115.0
95
292.4
-258.6
-31.4
120.2
96 6
116.7
108.1
105 9
54 7
97.i
117.9
113.3
1063
103.3
119.6
112.1
118.6
1084
-36.5
1996
1996
1996
-110.5
•98.6
-144.0
-102.9
-195.8
•137.1
272 1
-130.9
•236 0
226.4
-264 9
•31.3
100.6
1996
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
116.5
117 9
108.9
118 3
118.8
114 4
•11 0
-130.4
-113 0
99.3
-59.4
67.0
119.9
120,6
113.2
103 4
110.7
-466
-76.2
184Q
119.8
•530
-58.0
93.5
112.1 57 0 90.9 116.5 114.9
110.5
114.6
117.2 112.8
118.6
119.6
111.6
•130.6
•43.5
•182.1
•118.2
-116.1
113.0
119.3
112.3
102.3
116.5
[01^4
122.’
126.2
57.2
906
-245.5
-269.5
126.8
•35.7
-5.7
-250.3
-247.8
80.4
113.2
120.0
126.9
-A.2
-58 1
260.2
-264.3
-119 3
-231-9
1998
1998
1999
1999
1999
100 3
115.7
119.9
100.0
95.1
119.9
107.1
117.9
104 7
110.5
127.6
112.3
1273
1999
1999
1999
1999
1999
1146
131.8
117.7
98 9
19 9
-42 4
113.2
130.3
122.8
106.6
-56.9
306.0
-302.6
308.7
-252 9
260 4
-26.4
-107.7
101.2
-201.5
96.9
92.6
106.4
-278.4
97.7
•64.9
109.3
1999
2000
2000
86.1
105.7
2000
118.0
109.8
126.0
121.9
114.2
126.8
113.8
121.9
113.0
127.9
T RES NPTAdm/Jemma
102-4
38 7
258.1
•261.0
4219
3241. t
328 5
251-2
-187J)
-234.0
-203.0
•2290
958
1952
-269.4
98 5
-103 3
70.8
112.8
414 5
1104
124 2
121 2
121 9
113-8
1-14,5
55 0
117,5
114.1
120.9
1220
142 6
123 4
1196
-2099
41,
•67
3065
123 2
-116-5
112.6
40.5
153 9
■ 3969
374 9
-1880
-2614
-294.4
252 9
-32&S
-264 a
2906
aaA.o
478 5
28,7
83.0
39
115.8
110,2
115.4
1104
117 7
117.9
109-0
102.4
121.0
113.3
79 7
110 3
64,4
■43.6
1014
93,6
956
155.0
1213
1124
106-5
104 3
115-4
749
1111
65 7
-149,0
107 8
493.4
•160 3
-285-3
153.5
-719
-299.2
437.8
■214.0
-273.7
204.5
1.1
116.0
1014
11X3
105.6
113.5
11B.D
88.1
116.4
103.5
121.9
1012
1099
111.9
129.5
304
113J
122.0
114 J
1214
107J
121 4
122.0
131.7
102.5
1154
1210
115.1
417.1
-368 5
IQ3.B
128.6
108.2
126.5
54S
222.7
-239.4
48.7
268 2
-109.4
-397 6
-22(14
1460
_114J
101.7
115-4
120.3
300.1
117.4
■2138
447 7
-239 6
■164.1
4380
-350.0
J&2-7
152-5
118.6
96.0
123.0
1164
1117
100.2
119.0
1M.2
247.4
489 8
162.5
-1L4
219.0
-169.9
■314. a
1394
-272.5
-77.9
■365 fl
189 0
4308
■211.9
1354
■202 2
■10L.fi
1J6.S
ll&o
102,8
111.9
120 7
116.9
1215
111.6
92.0
103.1
110 2
1138
114.7
07M2Z20101
T PPQ MCTr\nii/onAW PnpW* **rfD*faQr Prtyf,T
ANNEX Mi
adjusted monthly inflows to lake tana
IVfdmil Dcmotraftt Vjpnb/ic of Ethiopia, Ministry of W'atrr c> Ethiopian Nilt Irrigation and Dnanagr Prytrf
Ub F4 SrOla Water Resources 2)£
8
f■ 1
3
i
I
LL
s'
5.
I
u5
>
i
£.| Upper
Lower
West Tana Orima 1 Megerh Megech
Upper
Gumaro Game Wbb
Gauge Lower
Wbb Mbb
Upper
Gumara
Gauge
Gumara
Lower
Gumara
uvwin*
!52E
lemma
Upper
Gabbey
lower
Gabbay
Subotdi NO J 2 1 3
4567
8 9'
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Art* (km'j
1083
489 425 378 596 332 684
621 895
379
912
295
438
211
220
1648
2514
992
6 2 66
1.20 0 32
0 93 1.46
0 82
0 71
0.64
2.20
089
2.15
072
106
1.38
470
35 22
617
>92 7 14 65
662 1586
5 11 8.D6
4 49
1676
1522
12.10
15.11
36 36
3 98
593
696
17.35
129 90
34.00
►92 8 316$
1479 45.36
1103
17 41
9 71
49 55
44 99
26 14
49 87
120.02
861
12 81
1702
2602
194 84
73.45
92 9
1927
870 42 11 672
10.60
591
14 68
13 33
15.92
23 90
5750
5 24
7.80
863
2043
152.93
44 73
92 10
1084
490 2.14
3 78
596
3 33
3.35
304
8 95
1742
4192
2 95
4 39
7.86
13 18
98 67
25 16
92 11
445
201 090
15$
245
136
679
6 16
3 67
568 13.68
121
180
440
464
34 70
10 32
>2 12
1.61
0.73 0.51
056
088
049
0.61
0.55
133
2 60 625
0.44
065
2.29
177
13 24
373
•3 1
0.70
0 32 028
0 24
0 38
0.21 047
0.43
0.58
074 1.77
019
028
2 20
0 73
546
162
32
0.45
020 023
016
0.25
0.14 0 23
021
037
0 36 086
0 12
0.18
1 64
0.50
3.73
1.04
J3
0.34
016 0.23
012
019
0.11 017
015
0.28
019 046
0.09
0.14
1.19
0 42
3 14
0.80
4
0.54
0.24 ' 0.27
019
029
0.16 069
0.63
0 44
025 060
015
0 22
1.18
066
497
1.24
5
1.01
0 46 074
0 35
0-56
0 31 180
1 63
0.83
058 140 0.27
041
1.22
1 19
890
234
6
602
2 72 3.17
2.10
3.32
IBS 206 187
4 97
2 79 671
1.64
244
344
991
74 20
13.97
7
2002
904 8 21
698
1101
6 14 17 64 16 01
16 54
2357 56 71
544
8.10
1327
2486
186 14
46 46
S
23 62
1067 22 30
8.23
12 99
7.25 23 35 21.20
19.51
38 20 91 92
642
9.56
10.43
23 72
177 62
54 81
9
18 89
8.53 1275
6 59
1039
580 19.24 1747
15.61
2740 65 94 514
7 65
10.31
20.48
153.35
43 85
20
893
4 03 405
3.11
4 91
2 74 4 49 408
7 38
1026 24 70 243
3 61
6.19
1187
MM
20 72
11
247
112 1.14
086
136
0 76 L01 091
204
318 766 0.67
1.00
316
3 03
22 70
5 74
12
0.94
042 0 28
0 33
0 52
0.29 0.27 0.24
078
129 3.10 0.26
0.38
190
1.08
811
2 IB
1
0.55
025 030
019
0 30
017 0.15 0.14
0 45
065 1.55 0.15
022
1 33
064
4 76
128
2
0 36
016 0.14
OB
020
0.11 0.04 003
0.30
0 36 086 0.10
0 15
103
045
3.34
084
3
025
0.11 009
009
0 14
0.08 0.02 002
0.21
0.17 040 0.07
0.10
0.86
0 32
2.42
058
4
021
009 o.oa
007
0.11
006 0.03 0.0)
0.17
010 0 23 0.06
006
072
0 28
209
0 48
5
063
028 035
0.22
0.34
0.19 0.33 030
032
0 28 0.67 0.17 025
0.84
095
7.11
145
6
5.70
2 57 2.33
199
3 14
1 75 3 10 2 82
471
547 13 17 155 2.31
2.67
8.14
60.95
13.23
7
18.39
8 30 *078
641
1011
564 28.72 26 08
IS 19 2334 56 16 500 744
7.39
19.53 146 21
42.67
8
2917
13 17 36 71
10.17
16 0$
895 40 90 37 14 24 10 53.07 127 71 793 1181
983
2J 5O
175 90
67 70
5 47
21 49
19 51
14.73
n ?o
so 12 415 7 22 9 40
1570 11751
41 38
10
11
12
1
2
7 96
1 34 141 1 01 1 63 0 91 086 079
2 44 5.45
13 II
080 1 20
334 309 23 15 6J7
L27 OSS Oil
0.44 0 70 0 39 030 0 21 1.05 191 459 0 35 052 2 39
I34 10 36
2 95
0 35 043 0 27 043 0 24 0 19 0 17 064 1 13 2 71 0 21
031
1 64 0S4
630 1 SO
015 0?4 0 14 0 13 0.12 0 36 0 59
1 4? 0 12 0 18
1.10
047 3 53
1 02
3
4
5
t___
7__
0 74
0 44
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026
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m
ill
0 20 0 2)
0.15 0 16
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0 IB 0 10 0 10
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0 10
0 10
009
027 0.46
1 10
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OB OBS 0 J3 249 0 75
0 u 0 14 0 10
0 22 <1 40 0 97 07 0 11 0 76 0 25
1 86 061
0 IS 009
0 42
162
$ 12
066 033
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q?p 026 1 93 0 65
04)
1 01
0 75
1 25
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7 17
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3
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i
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1 62
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2 96
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11.41
1 79
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0.14
Q fcl
a •»
1 22
11 06
40 95
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0 51
1 97
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15 14 ■ 44 10 69 27 64 22 74
039
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541
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0 95
2 27
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12 29
2992
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n
am
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f J»
10 96 44 79
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I »O 51
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'9 74
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1Ftdtral Drmwrath-Ripabfc ofEthtopto, Minutr) of VFaftr snd Energ Ethiopian AVA Imgifio* and Drmnagt Prytsff
A/r«r>*r
,
xy
PW
ANNEX Nt
UPPER BELES &. HYMA SCHEME FAILURE RATE AND STORAGE
REQUIREMENT (HALCROW - GIRD OPERATIONAL RULE)
■>it' C, 4
tT ^Quirts fjjEtdcml Dtmomitic Rrfubitc of Ethiopia. Mimstiy ofVTattr & Energy Ethiopian Nile Irrigation and Drainage Project
I&
Ub H SrOU Water
Resources (2)
uUpper Brim & Hyma scheme failure ra
fc and storage requirement (HaIcrow — GIRD Operation) Irrigation Option <\
Irrigation I Irrigation I Available flow
demand
(Sept-Jun)
Convecudve
4+ monlhfr
failure rate (%)
Surpluw/dHicU
j( divenioa
(Sept-Jun)
(MmJ)
Monthly
failure rale
Cnorrcudve I Coaiecudvr J
Accumulated 1 Total five
2 month*
future rate
month*
failure rale
live »tocage
require me nt
fitoiaae
I rb |’'4 SrOI j Water RcwUrCt*a <2|
IJMay-ltFederal DrmocratK fapMf ofEthiofto, Mnirtry of Water & Energy LtNcptm Nik lm&attot and Ikratna^e Pryert
Ntk Z"f(V*9/* DrjrO^f /‘•verf3
■
J*
X
yn
*
IFtdrnri Dtnocrjn; RipMr of Ethiopia. Ministry of Vattr & Eorr# Ethofil,™ Ni/t Im^jnon and Drjtiugr P^ f
fr
Upper Beles Irrigation
& Hyma scheme failure rate and storage requirement (Halcrow - GIRD Operation
Irrigation Option B
area
Irrigation
demand
Available flow
Monthly
Consecutive
Consecutive 3
Consecutive
Surplus/deficit
Accumulated
Total live
Dam
at diversion
failure rate
2 months
months
4+ months
3
(Mm )
live storage
storage
height
(ha)
(Sept-Jun)
3
(Mm )
weir
(Sept-Jun)
failure rate failure rate
failure rate (%)
requirement
(Mm3)
(m)
15,000UU H SrtSlaU'atcr JtuMJLino •'2J
v
13.Miy.t11‘fiienii Df>n<hrafic fafutbUc of Ethiopia, Mimiby of Water & Eurtg Ethiopia* Ni/f Irryp/io* anti Dranup Prjtd
Apr
17
0
May
56
0
|un
168
0
1379
2216
24.8%
89.3%
7.1%
7.1%
Jan
42
0
Feb
-2?
27
54
43
90,000
Mar
-27
2?
Apr
5
0
May
48
0
lun
166
0
Note: Bold indicate5 storage is required io met the demand? of the irrigable area/
Mf+q/rrtf fTjust d>£i>wjj
/F/AjEV-jM Air /rrjyjtfhrx jr^'P-LTr^v J*^PV f
F
aiurairr re.
-GIRD
ration) Irri
c
Uh l-l &rOl j Water XeKmccci (2)
13 May 11b rdf nd Dnnasti; R/puMr of Ethiopia. Al/w/in ofWairr & Entfg Ethiopia* Nik Imjrjno* and Drantagt ProprfI. h I*-* SrOla yt siw flu3rju*t£-* 2}
Lx
13 Mw IIFcdtrol
fapM; ofEtfapij, Mimrtiy ofWjftr r* [-aty
EtbnpiM Kilt fm&twi and Dram# Pnpa
Upper Beles
I Irrigation
area
& Hyma scheme failure rate and storage requirement (1 laicrow - GIRD Operation) Irri,
ion D
Irrigation
demand
(Sept-Jun)
(Mm )
Available flow
at diversion
weir
(Sept-Jun)
Monthly
failure rate
Consecutive Consecutive 3
Consecutive
Month
2 months months failure 4+ months
Surplus/deficit
5
(Mm )
failure rate
rate (%)
failure rate (%)
3
Accumulated live storage requirement
5
(Mm )
Total live storage
3
(Mm )
Dam
height
(m)
25.000
A£T
Mav
Jun
so.ooo
gu <w»o
22 V»11 May liFcderaiDtrnwrotic
tSEthtyua. Mjvihy ofW7alfT &Eftfrg
Erbtoptdt Nl/f Im&fwn and Drjuuy Pryrrf
Apr
-78
97
May
-39
136
Jun
162
136
90,000
1730
2216
372%
67.9%
67.9%
3.6.1%
Jan
64
0
Feb
13
0
Mar
-32
32
190
70
Apr
-95
127
May
54
181
Jun
159
181
Nov
-9
190
Note. Hold indicates storage in required to met the demands of the irrigable areaF^‘
ANNEX N2
ppfR BELES & HYMA SCHEME FAILURE RATE AND STORAGE
REQUIREMENT (SMEC OPERATIONAL RULE 1784.75 m«l)
llhj4^u .
u w4ltE
|2|
IVMifHFederal Demoiroric Rrpubhc of Ethiopia, Minufr) of Water & Entr^ Ethiopian Nik Irrigation and Dratn^ge Projectr
Belts & Hym* acheme failure mfr and «forage
3 2009 minimum lake level 1784.’
itinn A
*—■%Fedmi/R/pMc ifEtfafw, Mwir) of War & h>np Efhtytdn Ntfr Imfjnort and Drjtnaff Prtytrfi
<■
fc) HUJTllrtJH t.4 B1Ftdtrnl Dtmoanfic Rfpnbbt of Ethiopia. St/nitty ofW'’jtrr V~Erttrg,
Ethiopian A7/r Irrigation and Drainapt Prop.i
Upper Beles
Irrigation
& Hyma scheme failure rate and storage requirement (SMEC 2009 minimum lake level 1784.7Smasl) Irrigation Option B
Irrigation
demand
(Sept-Jun)
5
(Mm )
Available
flow at
Monthly
failure
Consecutive Consecutive 3
Consecutive
4+ months
failure race
Months
Surplus/deficit
2 months
failure rate
months failure
diversion race
weir
(Sept-Jun)
1
(Mm )
Accumulated
live storage
requirement
5
(Mm )
Total
live
storage
(Mm>)
Dam
height
(m)
25.000Il f]Federu/ Democratic PepMc of Ethiopia. Miwtry of Water & F.ntrg Ethiopian Nile Irngjnon anti Drainage Prytct
Apr
-30
no
May
38
no
Jun
183
no
1379
2023
35.0%
89.3%
28.6%
21.4%
Jan
I
0
146
63
Feb
49
49
Mar
-56
105
90,000
Apr
-41
146
May
29
146
|un
181
146
Note Hold indicate? storage if required to met the demands of the imgahle areaf/pprr Be/ra & Ifyrnj fdiemc failure rule und Bror.ip<-_rc.
qurrcmrnt (SMEC: 2009 nutiimum lake Level 17B4.75masl) Irrigation Opium C
irrigjtrion j (motion I AviiJibk
JUondi/y
Consecutive I Consecutive 3
CoMecume
Mtmilw
Surphiv /deficit
Accumulated
drmtnd I flow ar
failure
2 moothi months failure
44" mouthB
live iWige
llNC
(Scpt-Juo) / djvOTioo
failure rare
failure ntc
tequiitmtQl
image
1
(Mm )
weir
(Sept-Joo)
PM
Lb H ScOla Uatev Rvwwrn 12)Mm/ llffttwmfic Rfptfbac of Elfapta, Minty oj ITjf/r &Entig) Ethiopian Nik Imgjnon and Drainaff PmffdIL SI
VI
MJl tIO*S w miFtdfM fyM; ifEihtpJ. Miwty tfWatrr EtbtofxM Kilt ImpfiM and Dwup PrvftilL7b F4Srdli'Xiu.-r (2)FnM Dtm^c jMinty of Vater & Eirerp Elh^ran i\U I mutton and Drat*# PryM
Fedtrji Dtinoirjte RipnUk of Ethiopia, Mi rutty of Vatrr 0 Earp Ethiopia Nth Irrigation and Dinner Pnytil
Apr
124
172
May
-58
230
Jun
176
230
Nov
-9
239
90,000 1737
2023
51.9%
89.3%
89.3%
25.0%
Jan
23
0
305
Feb
-9
9
Mar
-61
70
Apr
-141
211
May
-73
284
Jun
174
284
Nov
-21
305

Summery

Summary of Ethiopian Nile Irrigation and Drainage Project Feasibility Study

Feasibility Study for Upper Beles Irrigation and Drainage Scheme

Project Overview

The document presents a feasibility study for the Upper Beles Irrigation and Drainage Scheme in Ethiopia, funded by the World Bank. The project aims to develop about 80,000 hectares of net irrigation and drainage schemes in the Upper Beles area.

Key Components

1. Climate and Hydrology

The Upper Beles area has a warm subtropical climate with distinct wet (July-September) and dry seasons
Annual rainfall averages 1,447mm, with 81% falling during the wet season
Mean annual temperature is 24.5°C, with relative humidity averaging 74%
The Beles River has a catchment area of 13,573 km² and flows into the Abbay (Blue Nile) River

2. Water Resources

Flow estimation at dam sites and diversion weirs using WATBAL modeling
Design flood estimation including Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) analysis
Water balance modeling for Lake Tana and Beles basins
Reservoir simulation and operation rules

3. Key Infrastructure

Component	Description
Diversion Weir (Right Bank)	Located at 247850E, 1289950N with river bed elevation of 1,230m
Dam Site (Left Bank)	Located at 261200E, 1993750N with potential gross storage of 378Mm³
Tana-Beles Hydropower Scheme	Key water source with operational rules affecting irrigation releases

4. Hydrological Data

The study analyzed extensive hydrological data from multiple stations:

Station	Data Type	Period
Pawc	Rainfall, temperature, humidity	1987-2008
Main Beles River	Flow data	1962-2005
Gilgel Beles River	Flow data	1982-2005

Key Findings and Recommendations

Proposed modified operational rules for Lake Tana to optimize irrigation supply
Assessment of storage requirements for different irrigation development scenarios
Design flood estimates for infrastructure planning
Drainage modulus calculations for the command area

Conclusion

The feasibility study provides comprehensive hydrological analysis and planning for the Upper Beles Irrigation and Drainage Scheme. It addresses water resource availability, infrastructure requirements, and operational strategies to support large-scale irrigation development in the region while considering environmental flows and hydropower generation.