FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA
MINISTRY OF WATER RESOURCES
BARO-AKOBO RIVER BASIN
INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT
MASTER PLAN STUDY
v
FINAL REPORT
VOLUME II
■
RESOURCE BASE AND
DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
MAY :•/??
AMD
DIG CGHStKTANTS LTDFEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA MINISTRY OF W ATER RESOURCES
BARO-AKOBO RIVER BASIN INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT 
MASTER PLAN STUDY
VOLUME II
RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
TAMS-DLC Biirn-Akobo River Bia in Integrated Develop men! Master PlanINDEX OF VOLUMES AND ANNEXES
Volume I;EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Volume II:resource Base And Development Options Volume TH:Master Plan Development
Volume IV:... PROJECT AREA MAPS
Volume VPREFEASIBTLITY STUDIES
ANNEXES
I. WATER RESOURCES
Annex 1A Climaiology Annex IB             Hydrology Annex 1CFlood Studies
Annex ID
Ground Water
Annex IE      Reservoir Operation Annex IF
Studies
Sediment Studies
.Annex IG                                     Waler Resources Cost Estimating Annex IH irrigation Projects
Annex 11          Water Supply Projects
Annex      1J 
2. NA TURAL RESO URCES Annex 2 A  Land Evaluation Annex 2B
Annex 2C
Hydropower      Projects 
....... Soils and Soil Conservation Geology
Annex  2D Mineral
.Annex 2E Annex 2FWildlife
Resources 
Forestry
Annex 2G           ....
Annex 2H
Annex 21... .... Agriculture
Tourism Apiculture
Annex 2J 
Annex 2K .. Fisheries
Renewable Energy
.Annex 2L..................... .............. Livestock J. SOCIO-ECONOMICS
Annex 3 A
Population .Aspects
Annex 3B —           Socio-Ethruc Groups Analysis
Annex 3C...................... .............. ... Economic Infrastructures
Annex 3D ...................................... Social Infrastructures
Annex 3E
Annex 3F.... . .
* EVKWO.VWEAT
.Annex 4 Environment
Economic and Financial Analysis Institutional Support
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akcibo River Harin Integrated Dcvdoptncnt Mailer Planr■RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
VOLUME H
volume n
RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
TAMS.LXG Baro-Akabo River Bxsin Incepted Bevdopment Maier PliTresource base and development options
VOLUME II
1.   SUMMARY
contents
11
12
12.1
1.2.2
1.2.3
1.2.4
1.2.5
1.2.6
1.2.7
1.2.8
1.3
1.3 1
Introduction Project Area
Topography ... Climate Rivers..
1
I
............
Land Use and Cropping
Infrastructure..................
Population.................■
Nutrition...-
Agricultural Landholdings.
Previous Studies
1990 /The Russian Study) ...
1.3.2        ARDCO-GEOSERV 1995
14
1.4.2 1 4.3
15
1.5.1
1.5.2
1.5.3
1.5.4
Economic Conditions 
- ---
Agriculture................................................................. -
Industry................................................................. ♦«- Food Security and Famine
General +—*♦—........................................................... J ulnerable Populations
Gnues........................................... -........—..................
Solutions.................. ............................ ........ ...........
2, DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES
2.1 Plan Context
.
2 2 Planning Process.....................................................................................................................
2.3 Policy Review
....................................  ,,
2.3.2        Key Development Policies.........
2.3.2         Development Goals........................... *............................................. ,.fc....... ..................... r.
2
4
Strategy 
for
Implementation
2.-L /        Principles of Planningw„
2.4.2         Participation.................................. ........................................... ........... ................... . ...........
2.4.3       Financial and Economic Viability...........................................................................................
2.4.4         Environmental Protection.....
2.4.5         Sustainability
2.5 Water Supply and Sanitation Policy and Strategy
2.5   I Letter of Sector Policy....................................... „
2.5.2         Strategy: a Master Plan Proposal.,..,,...................................
2.5.3
/orcs................. .............................
. . a ........ .. _ .. ............
..... .... n...*,Sil**>b,„b4
, . , . . TT , _ , . .. . , , , ,
2 6 Legal Aspects Of International Waters Of Ethiopia 2.6.1         Introduction.......................... ,t,,
■
...... .
2.6.2        Classification of International Water Resources
2.6.3         Categories of International Water Resources.......................................
2.6.4          Types of International Water Resources...............................
TAMS-ULG B*ro-Akobo River Bwin faiegratcd Development Mailer Plan
i
V» Ui V(   Vi Vi Vi Ui V» Vi Vi Vi Vi V> V» V> Vi Vi V» UN Zl V, V, Vi Vi un V. V, un Vi V. V, Ln Vi Vi -U -U Vj I j I Jresource base and development options
VOLUME
2.6.5        International Water Law
2.6.6         General Principles Of Customary international Water Lou
2.6.7       Doctrines Of International Water Law............................................................................. j
2.6        8 international Waters of Ethiopia.......................................................................................j
2.69
2.7.2
Uniqueness of Ethiopia's Geographic Position..............................................................
Constraints
j
2,7
2.7.3 2.7.1
Planning Scenarios.................................................................................................................. 5
5
Weighting of Objectives..
2  7,4
Planning Periods.............................5
Screening of the Options
.5
.5
3.    RESOURCE BASE
3  I      Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 5
3.2       GIS Utilisation5
3.2/ GIS Set-upj 3.2.2         Capacity Building           ........................................................................ j
3.2.3         The Database..............
j
33 3.3/
3.3.2 3.32 3.3.3 3.3.4
Water resources,..............................................
General................................................ ..
Climatology (Annex IA)........................................
Hydrology    (Annex    IB)..................................
Flood  Studies  (Annex  1C).............................
Ground       Water       (Annex       ID).................
++■
3.3.       J Reservoir Operation (Annex IE)..........................
3.3.6        Sedimentation    (Annex    IF).............................
34 3.4.1
Natural resources and agriculture
Introduction.................................
3           4.2Land Evaluation (Annex 2A)................................
3.4.3 Soils  and Soil Conservation (Annex  2B)
3.4.4         Geology (Annex 2C)............................................
3.4.5
3-4.6
3.4.7
3.4,3
3.4.9
3.4.10
3.4.10
3.4 li 3.4.12
3.5 ]
Mineral Resources  (Annex  2D)
Forestry (Annex 2E)...................... ..... ................
Wildlife (Annex 2 F)............................................
Tourism (Annex 2G)............................................
Apiculture (Annex 2H)..........................................
Rairfed and Irrigated Agriculture (Annex  21)
Renewable Energy Resources (Annex 2J)......
Fisheries  (Annex  2  K)....  ..............................
Livestock    (Annex    2L)....................................
Human resources and infrastructure
3,5, / Population (Annex 3 4J.......................................................................................................... 3.5.2        Socio-ethmc groups analysis (Annex 3B)
3.5.3        Natural Resources and Agriculture fAnnex 3C).—- 3.5.4         Human health (Annex 3D) ....
3.5.5         Infrastructures (Annex 3C).
.
1AMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
>iresource base and development OPTIONS
volume n
4.   SUMMARY OF DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS 4  I       Introduction
4.2       Water resources 
................................................
4.2.1          Water Supply (Annex 11)................................................ " "' 4           2.2        Hydroelectric Power Project Development (Annex I J) 4.2.3         Irrigation Projects (Annex 1H)...............................
4.3.3         Flood Protection Projects.......................................................
4  3 Natural resources and agriculture
....................
4.3   I Smallholder Agriculture..................................................................
4.3.2         Livestock (Annex 2L)*............................................................ 4.3. J       Fisheries (Annex 2K)-*...................................................*------ 4.3.4         Forestry (A nnex 2E)................................................... 4.3.5         Apiculture (Annex 2H)..................................-......................... 4.3.6         Wildlife (A nnex 2F)................................................................ 4.3.7         Tourism (Annex 2G) ---
4.3.8         Mineral resources (Annex 2D)............................
4.3.9         Renewable energy resources (Annex 2J) ............................
4.4         Rural Infrastructure
,
........
4.4. ! Economic infrastructures (A nnex 3C)
4           4.2 Social infrastructures (human health) (Annex 3D).............
4.5         Environmental Action Plan (Annex 4) ................................. ..
4.5. J Immediate (years 1995 - 2000) ..................................
4.5.2         Short term (years 2001- 2014)................................... ...
4.5.3        Medium term (years 2015 - 2034)...... 4.5.4         Uhimate (years after 2035)
5.
4.5A.5N ALYPShISa OsinF Dg anEdVcoELstOs:PManEoNveTr OviePTw..I.O...N...S..-................................
5.1
5. 1.1
5. 1.2
5.1.3
5.1.4
52
5.2.1
5.2.2
5.2.3
5.2.4
5.2.5
5.2.6
53
5.3.1
5.3.2
5.3.3
5.3.4
Introduction
.....................
Population implications.............................................
Population densities.............................................. .... Urbanisation..
Age and sex.............................................
Spatial analysis..............................................................................
The fanning systems............................... ........................
The Population Density..........................................................
The Population Support Capacity Model............................... The Land Capacity and the Current Ixmd Use
Allocation of resources....................................... ................... Forecasts for agriculture and food sector development
Economic analysis
Rainfed agricultural development.. Irrigated agricultural development
Agro-industries....................................
Anima! Husbandry......... . ...........
.*■ a. ...
....5
...5 ....5
....5 ...5 ..,.5 ....5
.....5
...,5
.... 5 5
... .5 5
.... 5
.....5
.....5
... 5
.....5
5
5
...5
..... 5
.....5
..... 5
5
.....55
...5
...5 ...5 ...5 ...5
.5 ...5
...5 ...5
.5 ..5
.5 ....5
5
TAMS-ULC Baru-Akobo River Basin lme^raied Development Ma<irr Plan
iiiRE SO (TICE BASE .AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
volume
5.3. J       Soil conservation and reafforestation............................................................................... j 5.3.6        Hydropower-............................................................................................j
5           3.7        Water supply-...........................................................................................................
5.3.8        Road sector....................................................................................................................... 5
APPENDICES................... .............™.......................................................
TABLES
Tabic I I Regional Elevations 
Table 3 I Summary of Available Monthly Climate Data
Table 3.2 Hydrometric Network 
Table 3 3 Comparison of the Monthly Average Runoff (MAR)
Table 3 4 Comparison with Previous Studies of the Mean Annual Runoff
Table 3.5 Yield of Proposed Reservoirs 
.......................................................................
Table 3.6 Reservoir Storage and Irrigable areas .................................................................................... Table 3 7 Firm Energy Potential of Proposed Reservoirs 
Table 3.8 Average Annual Sediment Yield in the Bare-Akobo Basin
Table              3              9               Reservoir
Sedimentation              Rate
Table 3.10 National Cropped .Areas Increases for the Period 1988-1994 Table 3 11 1985-2035 Projection of Project Area’s Population and Densities Table 3.12 Number Of Households, Crop Area and Average Holdings Table3.13 Smallholder Cropping Pattern as a % of seasonal crops 
Table 4.1 Checklist of criteria for interventions 
................
............
Table 4.2 Proposed Average Water Supply levels (litres/day/capita) .....................................................
Table 4.3 Projected Net Daily  Water Requirements  (m5) Table 4 4 Proposed Programme Investments  (10* USS)
Table 4.5 Proposed Projects in EELPA Expansion Plan .............................................................
Table 4.6 Ranking of Large Size Hydropower Projects 
Table 4 7 Ranking of Medium Size Hydropower Projects ....................................................................... Table 4.8 Comparison of Baro-Akobo Projects with other EELPA Projects 
Table 4 9 Ranking of Small Size Hydropower Projects 
Table 4.10 Summary of Irrigation Project Cost Estimates 
Table4 11 River flooding..... ....
Table 5-1 Correspondence between Wereda and Farming Systems.........................
Table 5-2 Population Density and Farming Systems ........................................................................
Table 5-3 Population Support Capacity per Wereda................................................      ....................... Table 5-4 Land Capacity and Land Use Distribution per Wereda
I able 5 5 Prospective allocation of land resources in the Bare Akobo Basin
Table 5.6 Proposed cropping patterns (rainfed agriculture)................................................................ Table 5 7 Rainfed agricultural development/intensities and areas 
Table 5.8 Impact on rainfed agricultural production ....
Table 5 9 Economic benefit of rainfed cropping (Birr/ha) .
Table 5.10 Selected irrigation schemes..................................................................................................
Table 5 11 Economic benefit of the irrigated cropping (Birr/ha)......................................................... Table   5   12   Road   improvement   programme,   results   of   the   cost   benefit   analysis Table 5 13 Economic infrastructure - Roads development programme
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basic Integrated Development Muter PlanRESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
VOLUME 11
FIGURES
Figure 1-1       Hypsometric Curve of the River Basin —....................................................................... 2
Figure 1-2       Projected Population Growth.....................................................................................      7
Figure 2-1       Government Capital Budget Summary......................................................................... 44
Figure 3-1       Average Monthly Rainfall Pattern over the River Basin ............................................... 56
Figure 3-2       Time Senes of Spatial Average .Annual Rainfall over the River Basin
58
Figure 3-3       Scattered Log MAR versus Log Catchment .Area .....................................................  62
Figure 3-4       Existing and Potential Dam Sites .... ............... .........................................................   64
TAMS-ULG Banr-Akobu River B»ln Integrated Development Master Plan
VI
tRESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
VOLUME I!
1. SUMMARY
1.1
Introduction
The Ethiopian Highlands  is  one of the worlds  most important watersheds  supplying two great rivers, the White and Blue Nile. The nvers  that form the basin of the project area, the Baro, (he Akobo, the Alwero and the Gilo, drain into the White Nile.
This  Master Plan Study, one of twelve such studies  to be commissioned by  the Government of Ethiopia, will assist Ethiopia to determine the development potential of the Baro-Akobo basin
The Water Resources  Development Authority  signed a contract with TAMS-ULG for the
Baro-Akobo   River   Basin   Integrated    Development   Master   Plan   Project   in   June   1995
Mobilisation commenced with the arrival of the TAMS-ULG Project Manager in July 1995
In  accordance  with  the  Terms  of  Reference  for  the  Consultancy  Services,  the  output  of  this study includes
1
A review of the existing database
2
A portfolio of prioritised development projects
3
A Master Plan for the integrated development of the basin
4. Information and data required for co-operative development undertakings with downstream countries
5         Prefeasibility level studies of selected high priority water resources projects
The Inception Report, containing a review of the existing data base and study methodology, was produced in December 1995 and reviewed in February 1996 The final comments of the review committee were received in March 1996
The Interim Report, in which w ere presented all the sector studies leading to the definition of the Master Plan, was presemed in July 1996 The final comments of the Steering Committee were received in September 1996.
This X oluine presents the results of the water, natural resources and human studies of the project area and the prioritised development projects available over the range of sectors Full details of the Master Plan are elaborated in Volume III.
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Buin Integrand Development Master Plan
Chapter IRESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
VOLUME
1.2      Project Area
1.2.1 Topography
The Baro-Akobo basin lies in the southwest of Ethiopia between latitudes 5° 31 and 10° 54 north and longitude 33° and 36° 17 east The Master Plan area is  shown in the maps contained in Volume IV. and covers some 76,000 km‘ The western, nonh western and south western boundaries of the area are formed by the Sudanese border, while the north eastern, eastern and south eastern borders are formed by the watershed of the basin which lies within the administrative boundaries  of Regions  6. 4 and II Region 12 is  wholly  contained within the project area These regions  are Benshangul and Gumuz. Gambela, Oromiya and the Southern Nations and Nationalities Peoples’ Regions
The eastern pan of the project area consists  of the hilly  upland areas  of the Fitawrariy Mekonnen Plateau and the Masongo Range This area, which forms the upper catchment of the basin, is bounded in the west by a series of escarpments which fall steeply to the high lllubabor Plain From the base of the escarpments, the plain descends westward to the low Lllubabor Plain, which inclines gently westward and is prone to inundation and waterlogging during the wet season from June to September
The regional elevations are shown in Table 1.1 and Figure 1-1 Table l.l Regional Elevations
Elevation
Area (km )
J
% Area
>3000 m
27
>1
2500-3000 m
146
>1
2000-2500 m
6 264
8
1500-2000 m
16,088
21
1000-1500 m
15,622
21
500-1000 m
18,652
25
0- 500 m
19,111
25
Fig 1 : Hypsometric Curve of the River Basin
1AMS-VLG Baro-Akobo Rj'cr Basin Integrated Development Masler Plan
2
Chapter 1RESO
URCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
VOLUME H
1.2.2
Climate
,,t
The  tempe.au.re  ™ e
s
to  .he  area  »  tan.  abou.  27  5=  C  below  SOO  m  on  .he  ftrnnl  pbm  o
s
2,320 m at Fincha
The annual mean value of sunshine is  about 6 hours  daily  and shows  almost no variation within the basin Despite this  uniformity, there is  considerable seasonal variation The most sunshine is  recorded in the period March to May  when skies  are clearest and values  are mostly  8 to 9 hours  daily  The onset of the rainy  season produces  a dramatic  fall in bright sunshine and average values of less than 2 hours daily in August are recorded
The Baro-Akobo basin is  a particularly  well-watered region of Ethiopia Gore in the project area has an average annual total rainfall of over 2,200 mm and most of the upper basin has an annual total of more than 1,800 mm A significant proportion of rain falling during storms  is lost by  run-off and the occasional light rain falling out of season when soil and foliage are hot is  lost by  evaporation. The "effective" rain is  calculated from total rain by  the effective rainfall factor (ERF); the average ERF is  about 60% during the rainy  season down to nil in the dry  season This  gives  an effective average rainfall of 750 mm annually  in the lowlands rising to about 1,250 mm in the highland
The seasonal variation in rainfall follows  the same pattern throughout the basin with peak 
precipitation  during  August  Peak  effective  rain  exceeds  5  mm  daily  in  the  highlands  and  4
mm   on   the   flood   plain,   dry-   season   rainfall   is   mostly   insignificant   There   are   striking variations  in  annua!  distribution  betw  een  the  north  and  south  of  the  basin  Using  the  1  in  20 year  ramfall  for  example,  Tepi  in  the  south  has  nine  months  annually  with  significant  rainfall (more  than  30  mm)  compared  with  only  five  months  in  Yubdo  and  Asosa  in  the  north,  with Gore  intermediate  with  six  months  Tepi  and  Yubdo  have  about  lhe  same  annual  total,  Asosa less  and  Gore  more.  The  more  even  distribution  of  rainfall  in  the  south  is  reflected  in  the greenness   of   the   vegetation   throughout   the   dry   season   and   contrasts   with   the   parched landscapes of the north.
On  the  Gambela  plain  below  500  m  only  about  six  years  in  ten  have  a  dependable  rainfall  of at least four months and sufficient to support good yields of most annual crops. From the
about  175°  C  at  2.500m  in  the  highland  The  range  in  mean  maximum  is  35  to  24  C  and  in mean minimum from 20 to 10° C.
Temperature peaks during February and March on .he Bond plain but high values extendI into April in the highlands. Below a bcm 700 m mean maximum values are in excess ci L tor
two to three months There are short periods of more than 40° C, the critical value for anthesis of some crops, notably maize, but these de not coincide with the cropping season Daytime temperature in the lowlands is very stable over the year with mean maximum not falling below 30 ° C even during the rainy season Minimum temperature is even more stable with a variation through lhe year of no more than 2° C about the yearly average of 19-2 U C.
In contrast, land above about 2,000 m is markedly cooler, with mean maximum in the hottest period not exceeding 28* C and generally being in the range 21-26° C. Maximum daytime temperature at this altitude also is stable through the year ranging through only about 4* C Minimum temperatures in the highlands seem to be more variable and not so closely related to altitude The annual mean minimum ranges from 15  C at 2,000 m at Atnago to 7° C at
1 VMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Bajjn [nEegrnicd UevcJopmenl Muter Plan
Chapter 1RESOURCE base and development options
v °LUMi
rainfall data for lung, crops would fail almost one year in two but this more ent,cal siluati, may be the consequence of less reliable data rather than less reliable rainfall
Above about 1,000 m the dependable growing season for annual crops is reliable and fail would occur only about one year in twenty, and even longer than that above 2,000 m [n
average season and better, a second rainfed crop should yield well during a dependable growing season of seven or more months
1.2.3   Rivers
The major rivers  within the Baro-Akobo basin are Baro and its  tributaries, (Birbir, Crebj Sore), Alwero, Gilo with its  tributaries  (Gecheb, Bitun, Beg) and Akobo with its  tributajy Kashu The general direction of the rivers is from the east to the west The rivers rise in the highlands  (2000-3500m) situated in the east of the area and flow to the Gambela plain (500m) in the west
The river regime is closely connected to the climate with stream flows increasing through May to September when they reach a maximum Both river levels and water discharges in lowest from December through to April The major rivers  are perennial although some smaller water courses dry out in most years
.All the major rivers are gauged except the Akobo flowing in the border with Sudan and all its tributaries
The Mean Annual Runoff of the basin is 19 billion mJ
L2.4 Land Use and Cropping
The study area can be broken down into flood plain and lower piedmont below the 500 m contour, the escarpment zone and the highland zone above about 2,000 m
The total cultivated crop area in the Baro-Akobo basin is at least 554,000 ha, with Illubabor and Welega together accounting for three quarters of cropland, with 97% of ail cultivated land falling in the upper basin This is in the highland zone and reflects the high density of arable farmers on the land above 1,800 m. This conforms very closely to the national average as 95% of the total cultivated area in Ethiopia is in the highlands
Nearly all fanners practice mixed farming with rotation of crops Cereals dominate the crop range accounting for 75 % of crop area, the proportion is somewhat greater in Kaffa, Asosi and the lower basin and less in Welega In the two largest zones, Illubabor and Welega maize is the most popular cereal but in Asosa and the lower basin, sorghum displaces maize, perhaps on account of its greater reliability under drought conditions Teff, the source of the staple food of the highland people, is particularly important in Illubabor with more than 3 quarter of the crop area, but much less so in other zones
Pulses overall account for only 6% of crop area, reflecting heavy dependence on anim^ protein as in the rest of Ethiopia The spread of species is fairly wide with horse beans, fi^W peas and haricot beans being equally popular, as much for their restorative effect on sod fertility as a source of dietary protein.
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Inlegrated Development Master Plan
Chapter 1
4RESOURCE BASE AND DEVE
LOP
MENT OPTIONS
VOLUME 11
Oilseeds  account  for  a  mere
2%
of  cropping  The  tra
ditional
noug  or  n
iger  is
marginally  the
most  widely  grown  except  in
the
lower  basin  where
the  Ru
ssians  had
introd
uced  soyabean
and groundnut The availability of animal fat explains the small production of oilseeds.
The other important crop is  coffee, which occupies  more than a quarter of crop area in Welega. somewhat less  in Illubabor and very  little or nil in other zones  This  crop is  the only cash crop of importance in the area at present There arc  two tea and two coffee estates established as state farms and two estates near Abobo producing cotton
A  wide  range  of  very  minor  crops  is  produced  in  the  area  mainly  for  local  consumption  and to enrich the diet
The Upper Escarpment is  mainly  forest but this  is  coming under increasing pressure from farmers, many  of whom are practising shifting cultivation This  is  leading to rapid and uncontrolled depletion of forest cover in the catchment Between I 973 and 1988 forest cover in the study  area fell from a total of 70,000 km1 to 35,000 km1, this  rate of depletion has almost certainly continued from that date until the present
1.2.5 Infrastructure
The Baro-Akobo area is  traversed by  a network  of all-weather roads, some 1.058 km in all, but the road density  is  low compared with many  African countries. The region is  connected to Addis  Ababa by  a scheduled air services  to Metu, Gambela, Dembidolo and Mizan Teferi The roads  Addis-Gambela, Addis-Asosa, Jimma-Mizan and Gore-Tepi are all well maintained, all-weather roads. The Gambcla-Dembidolo road, as  others  on the lower plains, is  in need of maintenance Numerous  smaller roads, accessible only  in the dry  season, cross the area The western part of the area is least well served by roads
As  well as  Gambela, which has  a population of 20.000, the other urban areas  within the project area are Ghimbi, Metu, Asosa, Dembidolo, Gore, Mizan Teferi, Tepi and Kurmuk, all with populations  oT more than 10,000 A further 16 smaller settlements  have populations  of around 2,000 people
Until 1964 Gambela was  a port with service to Khartoum, a 7 day  journey  that was  possible for about three months of the year Nowadays the only navigation is to Jtkawo, a trip of some 142 km Some 50 to 60 tonnes are dans ported between Gambela and Jikawo annually.
Electrification is  not well developed within the study  area with power largely  confined to the towns. Generation is  from small diesel power plants  of 15-30 kW. A 5 MW hydroelectric power station was  built at Sor in 1990 This  is  connected to Gambela via a 66 kV transmission line.
Provision of water supply  is  underdeveloped in towns  and virtually  non-existent in rural areas where water is  frequently  carried long distances  by  women and children Rivers, used as water sources, are becoming increasingly  polluted by  soap and human waste, particularly downstream from refugee camps
Commerce is poorly developed in the area and this is in pan due to the discouragement by the previous  regime of economic  activity  other than that controlled by  the State There are a very limited number of small-scale establishments within the area. These are listed below
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobu River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
Chapter 1resource base and development options
No.
1
2 
Description
Tea Plantation
Coffee Plantations
2
8
15
37
61
539
Cotton Estates
Saw Mills
Coffee Pulpers
Grain Mills
Bakeries
Hotels, cafes and restaurants
This represents a remarkably sparse commercial sector for a population of 2.2 million peop]e
1.16 Population
Present population
Ethnically  the region is  exceedingly  heterogeneous  with Anuak, Majanger. Nuer, Anfdo, Rome, Masongo, Longe, Opuo, Oromo, Ajnhara. Gimira, Shekocha, Bench, Gidame, Me’enit, Mao and Benshangul people all inhabiting the project area .Amongst these peopt the Nuer, Me’enit and Shekocha people arc  semi-nomadic  pastoralists  while most othe groups are sedentary agriculturists or hunter-gatherers
The present (1995) populations is estimated to be close to 2.2 million people in the study area, this is shown below, by region:
Region
Km1
Population
% Population
Oromiya
23,770
1,296,237
60
Asosa
7.412
239,144
11
Southern
18,668
451,498
2]
Gambela
26,062
182,776
8
|| Total
75,910
2,169,656
100
These 2.2 million people live in % million households with 418,000 households located in rural areas and 41,000 in urban households, The household in the rural areas averaged 4.8 mernbers per household, in the urban areas 4.2. In addition, bigger households tend to b( found in the Gambela region where households average 5 8 members
The Lower Basin, much of which is subject to flooding, has a very low density of population with just 9 percent of the population living on 42 percent of the laud of the study area. Oromiya, in the central pan of the upper basin, which accounts for 31 percent of the land has 60 percent of the population
Overall the study area can be classified in terms of population as having a low density in the
2
lower basin with fewer than 15 persons per km , this includes the Gambela region, and the northern pan of the southern region up to and including Gesha and Shasha Weredas. There is a zone of medium population density corresponding to the western fringe of he Upper basin, from the north including Asosa region to the centre and a major part of Oromiya towards Sigmo wereda to the nonh and Gesha Tinishu wereda to the south
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The two zones  of high population density  are both located in the upper basin One is  to the northeast and includes  the east Kelem zone, Gimbi, Illubaborand east Bono Bedelc. the other is  to the southwest including the towns  of Tepi in Yeki VVereda and Mizan Tefen in Temanhja Yazhi Wereda
Within the area are refugee settlements  whose numbers  have fluctuated, in 198? there were 300,000 Sudanese refugees in the area In the early 1990’s this number was close to 400,000. but in 1991, with the civil war in Ethiopia leading to major disruption, most of lhese refugees returned to Sudan to leave around 21,000 in place By  1996 these numbers  had increased to 61,000. Most of these refugees  are not included in the above population figures  Their inclusion would indicate higher population densities for Gambela
Population projections
The  population  of  the  Project  .Area,  2.2  million  people  in  1995,  is  projected  to  rise  to  5.3 million by 2035, as shown in Figure 1-2
This  increase corresponds  to an average growth rate of 2 20% per year, i e. 2.05% in rural areas  and 4 03% in urban areas  One of the major consequences  of this  population change will be the threefold increase in the population densities  to an average of 70 people per km- ovcrall, and 60 in rural areas, by 2035
1.2.7 Nutrition
According to the 1992 National Rural Nutrition Survey, malnutrition is widespread throughout the country' in rural areas. 8% of children aged 6 to 59 months are "wasting", i.e. low weight for height which is sometimes referred to as an indicator of acute malnutrition. 69% are "stunting", i.e low height for age, which is sometimes considered as chronic Lastly, 48% are of "underweight", i.e. low weight for age. Figures for malnutrition amoiur children of 6 to 59 months in rural areas of the basin in 1992 are shown below (%)
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Type of malnutrition
Illubabor
KelTa
Welega
National
Wasting (acute)
9.1
67.1
52.5
73
60.9
382
10.8
59.2
51.6
8.0
Stunting (chronic)
64 2
Underweight
47.7
There   are,   to   a   certain   extent,   some   regional   differences   Welega   and   Illubabor   sufft significantly more from malnutrition than Kefla.
1.2. 8 Agricultural Landholdings
The region is  dominated by  smallholder agriculture In the uplands, household size at 5 ] persons/household and cropland area per household, at 0 86 ha, arc  typical of Ethiopia as  t whole In the lowland area of Gambela, both family  size and the size of holdings  are smaiie Average smallholding sizes are in the range 0 5 to 1 0 hectares, the maximum size which can be managed by  a family  using hand tools  only, although in the highland regions  at leas, many  farmers  own one draft ammal for ploughing As  with the rest of Ethiopia, cerealj dominate the cropping pattern, but the dominance is even greater, especially in the lowlands
1.3       Previous Studies
This Master Plan study is based on the data collected for two previous studies of the project area, those by Selkhozpromexport, dated 1990, and by ARD CO-GEO SER V, dated 1993 , Tlx first coven the lower pan of the project area, up to the 500 m contour, while the latter covered the majority  of the rest of the area The summary  presented in the following section shows that the database was weak and largely outdated much work was needed to upgrade h
1.3.1 Selkhozpromexport 1990 (The Russian Study)
The Russian organisation Selkhozpromexport carried out a study  of the Gambela Plain, which comprises  approximately  30 percent of the project area The study  took  place over ar. eight year period starting in 1982 and culminating in a report submitted in 1990.
The fieldwork w as carried out in the latter half of the 1980’s Since that time there have been population movements  into the area from both refugees  and resettlement that, coupled with the natural population increase, has led to a major change in population of the order of 20 to 25 percent There has  also been a major change in the extent and distribution of wildlife When the Russians  carried out their animal count there were plentiful herds  of large mammals  within the project area, but now there appears  to be a complete absence of large mammals  Disruptive change is  also evident in the destruction of the vegetation of the watershed.
for data on physical features  that remain constant, such as  topography  and soil types, the Russian report is a useful source of information. For social, economic, demographic and land use data that can be changed by the impact of man, it is now outdated and can no longer be considered accurate
1 here are also limitations in the approach adopted in the Master Planning exercise carried out by  the Russians  The client regime believed in Collectivisation and State Planning and gave little weight to the individual. This is reflected in the conclusions of the agricultural section o1 the report which are heavily orientated towards State Farms and large scale agriculture with
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the individual peasant farmer being seen merely  as  the labour input tn a crop production process  These conclusions  were inevitable, given the political beliefs  of the time lhe same beliefs coloured the approach of the study and the areas of emphasis as well as the areas that were largely  ignored The study  is  resource driven and heavily  biased towards  engineering solutions to development The report admits that
77ze  programme  for  the  Master  Plan  elaboration  contained  neither  directions
nor guidance as  to the development of farming, the pace of farm or water related construction, requirement for marketable commodities  and the scale of
farm production, or indications  as  to the amount of possible capital investment. Not a single directive of this kind was received in the course of lhe
work either.
The result is  a report that, although technically  thorough, does  not reflect the policies  o! lhe present Government and ignores many of the important parameters that need to be considered in development.
Some important points from the review in Annex (6) are listed below.
Climatology and Hydrology.
The  study  refers  to  23  meteorological  stations,  some  located  in  Sudan,  whereas  the  present MWD data base now includes 48 rainfall stations
The river flow analysis  is  based on 16 stations  with data of varying lengths  extending to 1989, which is  used to develop flow characteristics  at points  of interest in the basin. A series of nomographs  is  used to size reservoirs  and determine major project benefits  such as  water yield and energy  production. Such techniques  are now badly  outdated The flood frequency analysis  is  based on the long river flow record available for the Gambela station The resulting flood peaks  appear to be low compared to experience in similar basins  No studies are made of extreme flood peaks based upon rainfall analysis
Geology and Hydrogeology
There is  a good inventory  of the geological conditions  in the lower basin, the result of ten years  of field work. The report describes  the geomorphological structure in some detail and identifies  nine surfaces  of planation The four land types  described and shown on lhe geomorphological maps tie in well with lhe 1:250,000 topographic maps.
Groundwater is noted as available in the alluvial deposits of the Gambela plain and in the
regional aquifer that is found at depth below the plain The numerous hand dug household
wells in the alluvial deposits usually produce less than 11/s and most frequently about 0 11/s 
Only the upper layers of the regional aquifer to a depth of 40m have been tested although the
aquifer may continue to a depth of 300m A potential production rate of 20 l/s from wells 
penetrating the aquifer is mentioned, but remains unproved.
The report and maps  at 1 200,000 provide a satisfactory  indication of the distribution and areas of the major soil unit, and are a suitable starting point for the estimation of lhe potential for both irrigated and rainfed crop production No mention is  made of the potentially  serious possibility of rising groundwater tables following irrigation
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Chapter 1resource base and development options
Land Use
volume I
The information on land use is now out of date, and there is no mention of land use chan*
However, substantial changes have occurred with the establishment of three state
further resettlement, natural population growth and very substantial fluctuations in
refugee population A dam on the Alwero River to irrigate 10.400 ha will introduce
changes There has also been extensive clearance of forest on the foothills and tn ’f,
savannah woodland
The crop suitability  evaluation was  too general For example, ail climatically  adapted cr^ is too broad a grouping for a crop suitability’ evaluation, not all climatically adapted crops an suitable for the soil conditions on the plain
Agriculture
t  The  study  provides  a  comprehensive  summary  of  crop  production  as  it  was  in  1987,  brn significant changes have occurred since then There is no evidence to suggest the consultants involved (he local people when planning their development proposals
Large mechanised state farms  are proposed in line with the philosophy  then in vogue ii socialist countries  but since discredited Some soil studies, crop rotations  and other physical factors  are still relevant for potential private sector investments  in large-scale agriculture The report did not consider the development of the existing smallholder agricultural systems.
Livestock
z   The  study  of  the  vegetation  is  particularly  thorough,  but  now  out  of  date  with  respect  to statistics, which appear to be unreliable .As the stocking rate in the grazing areas was high the report  rejects  planning  for  any  increase  in  livestock  numbers  during  the  next  15-20  years, except for the cattle on the proposed state dairy farms
To improve the social and economic  conditions  of the nomadic  herdsmen the report makes several proposals  including the construction of an all-weather road linking Gambeia town with most densely  populated livestock  production areas, collectivisation of the Nuer into stock-breeders  comprising 150-350 families  and the provision of drinking water supplies  in the pastures  There is  no evidence that while making these proposals  the views  of (he nomadic herdsmen were sought and taken into consideration
No special research was made into livestock diseases in the lower basin but in the absence ot official statistics there is consensus that animal diseases cause large losses. Rinderpest and trypanosomiasis were the most serious with the former a particular problem in Akobo wereda on the border with Sudan Death rates  of 20-25% were reported in some years, but it >s unclear when these losses occurred
J Irrigation Potential
The extent of land that could potentially  be available for the development of irrigated agriculture in the lower basin is defined in the study as 2 1 million ha suitable and moderated suitable, based on soil suitability  Some 335,000 ha was  thought to be practicable for irrigation after allowing for the impact of flooding in the western part of the plain, of which one third would require flood protection
Irrigation  schemes  were  prioritised  for  a  net  area  of  123,000  ha  Detailed  proposals  were developed for a first stage development involving a net area of 10,400 ha on the Alwero river
______________________ __________________________________ ~
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10resource base and development options
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and a net area of 13,500 ha on the right bank  of the Gilo River, with a further option of a j 8,000 ha net area, also on the Gilo River Further details are provided in Section 5 3.2 of this Volume.
Fisheries 
.
A  comprehensive  study  of  the  fish  species  was  carried  out  by  the  Russian  Academy  ot Science  in  the  late  1980s  This  study  examined  the  species  composition,  trophic  status  and parasitology  of  the  fish  populations  but  provided  no  information  on  the  fishery,  the  number  ol fishermen  operating  in  the  region,  the  socio-economic  status  of  the  fishing  communities  or the economic and marketing issues involved
Fauna
High densities of wildlife in the south and south-west of the area were reported on 39% of the area sampled from the air Migration patterns  of large mammals  were inferred from air photographs, giving a generalised account of ungulate movement (a predictable dry  season dispersal to the wetter grasslands  of the west, with a rainy  season movement to the higher levels  of the watershed). No information is  provided on the patterns  of international migration, or where, for certain species, important events like reproduction takes place.
No data on wildlife in the montaine tropical forests  of the eastern part of the area was collected. Data on avifauna are too generalised to be of much ornithological significance, and no ecological data is  available beyond a pure presence?absence presentation There is  a marked paucity of information on herpetofauna and invertebrates
Three wildlife conservauon measures  were prepared, zonation (now shown from experience elsewhere to be unworkable), the designation of hunting areas  and the establishment of an experimental farm for game farming. However, the report's  predictions  that the wild animals would be killed if poaching was  not stopped have to a large extent been fulfilled Any surviving populations  of larger wild mammals  will be restricted to the southwest of the National Park, or to the more inaccessible parts of the swamps in the extreme west
A  critical  factor  in  wildlife  recommendations  is  the  failure  to  take  into  account  local  needs and perspectives related to wildlife utilisation
Forestry
Although the botanical studies  are detailed and thorough, the study  makes  clear it was  not a forestry  study  or survey, but a geo-botanical study  that included the forests  for the purpose of species  identification The comments  on the wooded savannah and evergreen catchment forests  are descriptive narratives  All trees  were classified as  pan of the forest, whether wooded savannah, plantations and evergreen slope forests.
The  data  was  gathered  during  1987-8  and  is  seriously  out-of  date  due  to  the  substantial changes affecting land use which have had a major impact on the forest
Hydroelectric Potential
Ihe studies  of twelve multipurpose dam projects  in the lower basin are at a level somewhere between pre feasibility  and feasibility  level, and included site drilling and semi detailed topographic mapping, The work on site conditions is adequate and useful
c
fAMS-VLG Baro-Akubo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
11
Chapter tRESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
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The project layouts for the multipurpose projects are reasonable although changes are
to bring the work in line with recent practice However, adjustments to the hydrology 
for river flows and extreme floods will inevitably lead to design changes and will
most of the design work will require revision. All of the cost estimates are now out-of-dat(T
As  no multipurpose economic  analysis  was  presented, the report does  not establish wheiq or not the projects  were economic  or optimal Six  of the multi-purpose projects  have dams excess of 100 m high and iwo in excess of 200 ni. (TAMS and Geba Dams)
Flood Control
The report shows the flooding mechanism in the lower basin is complex, involving backup effects of the Pibor River, large inflows from the principle rivers (Baro Alwero and Gilo)
direct rainfall The studies, which were essentially empirical and involved estimating riw
bank capacities in the lower reaches of the river system, are adequate and cannot bt
significantly improved upon within the time frame of the present studies
To protect towns such as Gambols against flooding, the study proposes flood protection dike and/or the provision of upstream flood storage in multi-purpose reservoirs. No conclusions were drawn on the relative merits of these approaches
Recommendations made with respect to the provision of flood protection for agricultural land arc  ambivalent and there were strong implications  that prevention of flooding would be a mixed blessing, considering the benefits that regular flooding provides for the pasture land
Economic Analysis
The economic  analysis  in the report is  largely  confined to cost benefit studies  of various development options. The detailed cost benefit analysis  of the irrigation fails  to include the cost of dams  in the imgaiion cost although such dams  are a requirement for the proposed project Other capital costs  are also excluded although the benefits  from the capital art claimed
The marketing of potential crops from the proposed agricultural development is also ignored, assuming State responsibility  for distribution and that non-market prices  were the norm This is now inappropriate following the change to the free market system in Ethiopia
Social and Demographic Analysis
There is little attempt in the study to collect social data and no attempt to determine the fell needs of the people living in, or dependent upon, the resources of the basin No attempt was made to assess the importance of ethnicity and lifestyle in relation to integrated development There is no significant indication of the demography of the area.
Water supply  and sewerage needs  to 2010 were considered for the towns  of Gambela and Itang. and also for some rural settlements, industry and pasture for animal husbandry Most o this data is now out-of-date or inapplicable.
1.3.2 4RDCO- GEOSERV1995
This  study  covers  the Upper Basin area which was not covered by the Russian Report The objective of the study, according to the main report (page 1, par 2), was  to collect data W assess the resources of the upper basin for irrigation, hydro-electric and other projects as well as studying Lhc basin climate, land resources, geology', soils and mineral resources Original^
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12resource base and development options
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the  environmental  and  socio-economics  sectors  were  to  be  covered  by  EVDSA  and  therefore ARDCO-GEOSERV inputs in these areas received much less emphasis
The ARDCO-GEOSERV Study  took  place over a much shorter penod than the Russian Study, about two years  compared to eight years, although the study  area is  about twice the size of the lower basin, and in many  respects  much more complex  Accordingly, the study  did not develop data as detailed as the Russians, nor did it undertake the same depth of analysis
The study  relied heavily  on the interpretation of satellite imagery. It has  been impossible to check  the scale and accuracy  of the field work  that was  used for validation and it cannot be assumed to have been adequate .As  field validation is  absolutely  essential when using such imagery, the data and information generated from it has to be considered questionable
A   household   survey   which   focused   on   energy   requirements   gives   some   useful   additional information   on   age   structure,   occupations,   household   income   etc   Some   major   errors   have been  found  in  the  population  figures  contained  within  the  report  and  the  sampling  frame  used has a heavy urban bias.
The report also relics  heavily  on information from the Woody  Biomass  Project but it appears that there was  no official contact between the two projects, and much of the data used may have been wrongly interpreted
The  report  appears  to  be  over-reliant  on  published  data,  such  as  it  is,  with  insufficient  field collection of data, which was the object of the exercise
Some important points from the review in Annex (6) are listed below
Climatology and Hydrology
Not all the rainfall data available at MWD is  included in the report, and no data processing was  performed The river flow' analysis  is  based on flow records  from 1967 to 1989, and the long record at Gambela (1906-1967) was  not used No significant processing of data is undertaken, although the available flows  were used to develop monthly  flow series  at sites  of interest in the basin using the Thomas and Feiring model
Geology and Hydrogeology
The report describes  the geological units  in the upper basin very  comprehensively  and is  a good measure of the existing geological information, although some difficulties  were experienced in correlating geological units  from different sources  Previous  geological studies are described in detail and the list of 59 references is comprehensive
Mining  is  undertaken  by  anisanai  miners,  but  the  report  provides  no  data  about  this  group which exploits the gold, platinum and iron ore that occurs in three mineralised belts
Ground water encountered in the Tertiary  igneous  rocks  and Precambrian metamorphic  rocks making up most of the upper basin area is  characteristically  contained within fractures, fissures, and solution features  of secondary  porosity  A number of springs  are associated with this  environment and numerous  wells  have been constructed to exploit the groundwater Production from these springs  and wells  may  reach 18L s. but most produce less  than U/s The future potential use for groundwater in the upper basin is far village water supply
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Chapter 1rusocrce base and development options
VOU>ll||
The reportprovides a first approximation of the soils tn the upper basin but contains m Mil mapping at 1 50.000 scale of representative areas of the agro-ecological zones to guide formulation and implementation of detailed development proposals. The soil survey repor
gives no details of surveys carried out to support the selection of the 18 irrigation sites and j
is possible that no field survey was carried out in these areas
There is no description of the soil conservation measures necessary for arable land or fore$^ and no discussion of the alternative soil conservation techniques available
Laud Use
The report gives a picture of land use but not of changes that are occurring or why There a no detailed description of agricultural or production systems, and the land-use/cover maj fails to identify area of livestock rearing, or those suitable for pasture/range land There is m attempt to identify' areas of land degradation, to assess the extent of fragmentation of lad holdings, or to estimate of the carrying capacity of the land
The land evaluation far crop production has been carried out in a systematic fashion and the definition of land units, the land qualities used and the crop environmental requirements an sound The land is evaluated only in terms of smallholder crop production, not for forestry, livestock or wild life The area of potentially inigable land possibly may be overestimated
The study has neither identified the constraints to land use nor recommended improved land management techniques
Agriculture
The report does not consider farming systems as a whole, although livestock is an integral part of many farms, and provides few analyses and recommendations Data on crop areas, yields and production for 1992/93 by zone were obtained and the differences between zones noted
A large amount of information was collected in surveys of 353 farmers in 19 Weredas and of MoA Wereda offices, but the report does  not elaborate on the extensive geographical variations  A substantia) amount of information was  collected concerning crop production and constraints, and the potential for irrigated and rainfed agriculture The report also includes a number of recommendations
The report identifies spices and fruit as development opportunities but contains no detailed proposals. Nor does it include the views of the fanners concerning development possibilities
Livestock
A large amount of potentially valuable information was collected from two farmer surveys involving  150  livestock  farmers  and  data  from  14  Wereda  offices,  but  poor  consistency makes analysis difficult Some data concerning tsetse and trypanosomiasis is 20 years old.
There are gaps in the data on the numbers of livestock and sales, but neither rhe areas nor the yields of the grazing resources of the upper basin were quantified, Data on the incidence of animal diseases, their vectors and the veterinary services is comprehensive, but that on the incidence of diseases, other than trypanosomiasis and lick borne disease is less good Th« report includes no description or comment on the livestock extension services, but make*
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several    recommendations    for    the    development    of    livestock    production    and    veterinary services
Irrigation Potential
The report identifies  18 potential irrigation areas  on the basis  of land slope and water availability  Several of the areas  are located downstream of proposed dam sites  and could only be developed if storage were provided
No proposals  were made for specific  cropping and irrigation methods, no specific  soils  data was  collected and no topographic  data of significance apart from 1:50.000 scale maps  is available No assessment of the likely economic viability of irrigated was made
Apiculture
The report indicates  that over most of the upper basin the main conditions  for the development of apiculture exist, and that apiculture represents  a significant activity  that augments  the incomes  of a good section of the region's  population. However, there is  no data to support this  statement. The report advocates  the use of modem hives (unspecified type) but makes no specific  proposals. Farmers  do not adopt frame hive technology, but the report does not address this issue
Fisheries
The  report  did  not  cover  the  fisheries  sector  in  detail,  and  little  data  is  available  from  other sources
Fauna
The report includes  species’ lists, but the designations  'rare*, 'common' and abundant' are of little value, and include errors  in zoological classification. The data on forests  fauna is particularly  poor, largely  because of the difficulties  of recording and enumerating animals  in
dense  forest.  Some  limited  data  on  elephants  indicated  up  to  an  80%  decline  between  1986
and 1990 and other large mammal populations may have declined to a similar extent
The  proposals  for  the  creation  of  National  Parks,  Wildlife  Reserves,  and  Controlled  Hunting Areas must therefore be considered ill-founded
Forestry
The report fails  to distinguish between evergreen rain forest and other forms  of wooded stands, either plantations  or wooded savannah Evergreen rain forest, found in the remnants of the clump forest on the plateau and in the slope forest of the escarpment, is  classified as broad leaf commercial hardwood, rather than as  part of a rapidly  diminishing forest whose continued presence is  vital for the protection of the watershed The survey  makes  no mention of the extensive and widely  spread plantations  of fast growing exotic  species  which make up a sizeable pan of foe woody biomass in the surveyed area
The size and patchwork  nature of the clump broad leaf evergreen forest, the relatively  short time spent in foe field and the heavy  reliance on GIS and past sub-sector studies, throws doubt on foe quality  of the data. The survey  used 1986 photographs  and 1989 Landsat imagery, although the forests  continue to be rapidly  encroached, making imagery  and photographs  from even a few years  ago, unreliable, unless  the interpretation is  supported by very extensive ground truthing, which was not the case,
TAMS (JLG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
Chapter 1RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
Hydro-electric Potential
The report contains useful work in screening the upper basin for potential hydro,-,.,, projects of various sizes and types, but apart from the one project (Birbir) no specific 
VOLUl^
surveys, layouts, or cost estimates have been done This was basically because of the lack * topographic data Some layout sketches based upon the I 50,000 scale map were develop^
and some costing undertaken based upon general empirical formulae .An initial ranking
projects was attempted, including the large multi-purpose projects identified by the RuSjj^
study in the lower basin, but excluding the small run-of-the-river plants in the upper basi^
However, there are significant anomalies in the relative costs of projects
Wa/er Supply
Studies on water supply in the upper basin were based upon a socio-economic survey carried out in 1994, and are presented as part of the hydrogeology' section of the report The report covers existing urban and rural water supplies  and projected demand for the period 1995 (0 2025 No specific water supply projects are identified and sewerage is not discussed
1.4    Economic Conditions
1.4.1  General
Ethiopia's  economy  has  been growing irregularly  Preliminary  figures  for 1994. 95 showed i growth of 5 6%. but this should be viewed in the context of the series since 1989^90. set out below
1989/90
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
GDP total
3.3
-6.7
-8.5
12.3
13
5.6
Agriculture
5.2
2.8
-4.6
64
-5,4
48
Industry'
-4.0
-22.1
-17.5
27 1
7.6
8.8
Distributive sectors
I7
-24 4
-13 1
23 8
8.8
62
Other services
5.2
-5.5
-10.6
13 0
222
56
The irregularity is not surprising in the context of the social disruption over the early part of the decade and the change of economic policies in the last three vears, but despite the recent signs of growth, it would be meaningless to project from this series towards sustained growth in any  sector. The economy  is  dominated bv  agriculture, with almost 50% of the GDP The composition of GDP in 1994/95 was:
1994/95
Sector
Agriculture
GDP (in Birr)
Percentage
61125
5288.6
49  22%
- Agriculture
- Forestry
42.59%
818 I
- Fishing
6 59%
Industry
5,8
1408.7
46.6
567.5
0.05%
11 34%
- Manufacturing
0.38%
- SSI & Handicrafts
4 57%
241 3
- Construction
204.3
1.94%
1.65%
TAMS-ULC Bam-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Elan
ChaptrrlRESOURCE base and development options
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- Electricity and Water Services
- Distributive services
- Other services
Total
3490
4897.4
1810 5
3086 9
12418.6
2 81% 39  44% 14.58%
24 86%
100,00%
The trend of the contribution of agriculture has  been declining however over the last five years, with increasing contributions  from the service and industrial sectors, both of which
have increased by about 10% of their values in this period This is shown below
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
Agriculture Industry
Services
55%
56%
53%
50%
49%
10%
9%
11%
1 1%
1.1%
35%
35%
37%
39%
1.4.2   Agriculture
The decline of the agricultural sector is  attributed to recurrent drought, poor cultural practices and unfavourable policy  environment However, it is  a long term trend, a recent study  by  the International Food Policy  Research Institute1 shows  that since 1965 per capita cereal production has been declining by around 4 kg per year
Recurrent drought may  well be a feature which will characterise the Ethiopian climate for a number of years  Ethiopian agriculture has  to adapt to changing conditions  through policies designed to maximise yields  in good years  and make provision through risk  aversion, improved crop storage and possible fiscal measures  like crop insurance to allow years  of poor harvests  to be accepted as  normal. No major development is  possible in any  sector if drought years are allowed to totally disrupt economic activity
Poor  cultural  practices  have  led  to  widespread  deforestation  and  soil  erosion  Although  the remedies  are  well  known,  there  has  been  little  success  in  applying  these  effectively  The current  rate  of  deforestation  is  estimated  at  88.000  ha  per  year,  while  planting  takes  place  at 3,000  ha/vr  There  has  been  no  shortage  of  sound  technical  advice,  but  this  has  clearly  failed to  remedy  the  problem  in  any  significant  way.  Until  the  socio-economic  factors  are  properly addressed,  which  have  led  to  such  advice  being  ignored,  the  situation  is  unlikely  to  change The  major  socio-economic  constraint  usually  identified  with  the  failure  to  accept  advice  is that  lack  of  security  of  land  tenure  for  the  village  farmer  Although  proposals  for  a  new policy  of  land  tenure  have  been  made  at  a  political  level,  they  have  yet  to  be  promulgated  at legislation   There   is,   it   should   be   mentioned,   a   considerable   variation   of   views   on   the desirability  and  likely  effect  of  the  existing  proposals,  but  the  scope  of  this  study  does  not permit an informed comment on the different positions held
Although the policy  environment has  now changed, the liberalisation of trade in grain and distribution of agricultural inputs  has  as  yet failed to attract private sector investment This  is not surprising, as  the private sector is  naturally  cautious  to invest in a country  with a tradition of nationalising industries, and the initial response, particularly  from foreign investors, is towards investment opportunities with high returns and short pay-back periods, of which few
Webb,  Patnck,  Joachim  von  Braun  and  Yisehac  Yohannes  (1992)  Famine  tn  Ethiopia  Policy  implications  of coping  with  Failure  at  National  and  Household  Levels  Research  Report  92  Iniemauonal  Food  Policy  Research htsituie, Washington DC
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17
Chapter 1resource base and development options
occur in the agricultural sector There appears to be a strong case for encouraging small., demesne mvrSsnent. bo* in the agriculiural sector and the prov,s,on of govemmen, se<
through private sector contracts rather than direct labour The first step, the provj$,0n
hanking services in the regions of the project area, seems to be progressing at a rapid rate
there is very little indication that local government officials have grasped the concepts tha
need to be applied, and training in this regard seems to be required
1.4.3   Industry
Manufacturing   is   dominated   by   industrial   public   enterprises   (IDE's)   producing   light consumer   goods   in   the   food,   beverage   and   textile   sub-sectors   Although   the   IDE's   hjj preferential  access  to  foreign  exchange,  credit  and  skilled  manpower,  output  fell  rapidly  frQa 1987/88  to  1991/92  by around  50%.  In 1992, policy  measures  were introduced to deregula, prices  and  markets  and,  with the creation  of  the  Ethiopian Privatisation  Agency  in  1994, ■< start the process of privatisation. In January, 1995, the EPA started putting state enterprises up  for  sale,  beginning  with  the  Ethiopian  Retail  Trade  Corporation  and  Ethiopian  Household and  Office  Furniture  Enterprise  (together  120  sales  outlets  and  17  warehouses),  Ghion  and Wabi Shebelle Hotel chains and other individual hotels (a total of 38 hotels). Plans are also it hand  for  privatising  11  SME’s  and  7  soft  drinks  enterprises,  5  live  animal/meat  exports enterprises and 5 feed processing, pig farming and buichers.
The privatisation of state farms  and medium and large scale manufacturing enterprises  b scheduled for 1996/97 These plans  may  include the two coffee plantations  and one ta plantation within the project area
As  a result of these and other policy  changes, capacity  utilisation has  risen from its  low of 43% in 1991/92 to 65% in 1993/94 The recovery has been patchy, however, with increases in food (mainly  sugar), beverage and cement industries, and falls  in textile, chemical and metal industries
1.5       Food Security and Famine
1.5.1   General
As indicated above, cereal production in Ethiopia is showing a long term decline on a pcr
capita basis With 80% of the population engaged in agriculture Ethiopia is unable to
itself with grain shortfalls being made up with imports
The study area is frequently seen as an area of great unrealised potential, under populated by Ethiopian standards, and with plenty of land and water.
In reality  both malaria in the human population and Trypanosomias^ in the cattle populate severely limit the development potential of the region Areas that are cropped are faced with declining soil fertility  and the forest cover in the escarpment is  being rapidly  denuded as population pressure and declining yields force fanners to bring forest land into cultivation
The highlands m the project area are an area of good rainfall with the potential to produce • grain surplus  with improved agricultural practice The lower plain, with more erratic  rainf*11 is  an area of vulnerability  Overall, the area should be capable of feeding the 2.2 miUio” people living within it; but with population growing to 5.3 million people there would need #
—TAMS-I'LG Baj-o-Akobo Rive?B^Hnt^d
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be  large  changes  to  agriculture,  leading  to  a  massive  yield  increase,  for  the  basin  to  remain self sufficient in food supply
The result of the rapid depletion of forest in the catchment areas  of the rivers  is  that runoff is faster due to the loss  of sponge effect and erosion is  increased. This  will have tw& impacts that have a potential for disaster The first of these is  a more rapid flood peak  due to faster runoff, coupled with more severe flooding as  eroded soils  form sediment deposits  in the downstream river beds  The second impact is  a reduction in low flows  of the rivers  as  lhe upland soils  no longer retain the water, ar its  most severe this  can lead to rivers  that are presently  perennial ceasing to be so This  can have severe effects  on communities  relying on the rivers for water.
Anecdotal  evidence  from  the  project  area  would  indicate  that  the  impact  of  depletion  of  tree cover in the catchment is noticeable on stream flows
1.5.2    Vulnerable Popularions
The vulnerable populations  at times  of food shortage tend to be rural rather than urban and farmers  rather than rural wage earners  There are obvious  reasons  for this, urban populations and rural wage earners  are always  in the position of exchanging money  for food, at a time of food shortage prices may  well increase, but for the person who has money  at least some food is likely to be available.
The subsistence farmer, on the other hand, lives on w hat he grows. If his crop fails he has no food, and no money to buy food.
The other vulnerable group are refugees  who may  be growing some food on marginal land and are particularly  reliant on organised food aid under the best of circumstance In addition, within the project area, if there is  a food shortage on this  side of the border, there is  likely  to be a food shortage in Sudan, this  in itself can well send a refugee population across  the border An escalation of hostilities  in Sudan will also send refugees  across  the border creating an immediate food shortage.
1.5.2   Causes
Insect or crop disease can be a cause of harvest failure but more normally  would be a cause of a fall in yield. Crop disease tends  to be more of a problem in estate type agriculture with large areas of mono-cropping than it is in subsistence agriculture
Erratic rainfall is  much more likely  to be a cause of major crop failure This  can be in the form of too little rain, too much rain, or rain at the wrong time Too little rain can produce a situation in which the crop fails  to mature Too much rain can cause flooding, water logging, lodging, or rutting of the crop Rain that falls  at the wrong time can cause any  or all of the above problems
Civil unrest or warfare can also be a cause of food shortage if it leads  to a disruption of either planting or harvesting. Some of the basin, close to the border is  vulnerable to such disruption if the civil war in Sudan spills across the border.
Declining Land Productivity There is evidence of this in the study are with land being mined" and fertility decreasing, the consequence of this is that yields are declining. In
addition there is a movement to increasingly marginal agricultural land
TAMS-L’LG Earo-Akobo River Baiin Integrated Developinent MajterPkn
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1.54 Solutions
There will always be good seasons and bad seasons in fanning There will also be, once i while, a disastrous year when, for example there is so little effective rainfall that virtue nothing grows When there are truly disastrous years then government has to intervene U one is trying to avoid is a situation where a merely bad year becomes a disaster because t population are so always so near the edge when it comes to sustaining themselves that th cannot weather a year when crop yields fall below average
Diversification This  can reduce the risk  A farmer with one grain crop a year is  v® vulnerable A farmer with two crops a year less so. and, if he is growing a mixture of crop he may well salvage some of the crops in all but the very worst situation If the farmer is hot growing crops  for subsistence and working in the off-season as  a wage labourer o commercial farming land then the risk is reduced further still So the diversification shoui involve both changes to the subsistence agriculture and the encouragement of commerce farming in the area in order to provide income-earning opportunities
Improved Production If the subsistence farmer is able to produce a surplus, and store it oc farm without too much loss, then the possibility of getting through a poor harvest is greatly improved The problem with this is two-fold First of all the average subsistence farmer, if he produces a surplus, sells it in order to generate cash, and secondly, on-farm storage is frequently inadequate and losses are high Within the basin, on farm storage losses of maize are high enough that many farmers prefer to sell at harvest rather than try to store Teff is much easier
An alternative is for Government to be the purchaser of (some of) the surplus, which is then stored locally in properly constructed storage Such interventions can have incidental benefits as Government entering the local market to purchase a surplus can help to keep the price up
The advantage of the above solution is that it can help to cope with a disaster, be that i sudden influx of refugees or a loss of crop Local storage helps to overcome the problem o' having to ship to a region when there needs to be an intervention
There are two steps that have to be co-ordinated and well managed First, one has to impro'1* subsistence agriculture in order to produce a surplus and one has to intervene in the market in order to purchase and store
The above is certainly a possible approach in the basin as the potential for improved cropp ? is there and, certainly in the shorter term, there is a refugee population who have to I* assisted so Government and donors are intervening anyway The purchase of surplus l°c3 production may well be a more cost-effective approach to providing grain for refugees than having to ship and truck grain over large distances
Engineering Solutions This would include irrigation, drainage and flood control
irrigation can assist the farmer by alleviating some of the impacts of erratic rainfal■ particularly that of insufficient rainfall or late rainfall However, if irrigation is to be effective
in a situation of real drought then considerable amounts of water storage needs to be provided and this is expensive
in
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Flood control and drainage can assist in situations of too much rainfall and waterlogging but, once again it is not cheap and frequently, the effect of stopping flooding will be that irrigation (controlled flooding) is needed to substitute for it
Irrigation reduces the risk for the farmer; but, if this is all it does, it is not cost effective Because of the high cost of engineering interventions, in order for them to make any sense at all, they have to be coupled with greatly increased productivity , frequently with higher value, non-grain, crops Irrigated agriculture thus involves a change in the entire farming system
As noted tn the climate section, at an altitude of 1,000 m and above the study area offers a long growing season with reliable rainfall Cropping of both annual crops and coffee in these higher elevations provides a degree of security as both wage-paying employment is available from the coffee estates as well as subsistence agriculture Rain fed agriculture in these higher elevations  is  certainly  capable of improvement and a surplus  can almost certainly  be produced
In the Gambela Plain below 500 m, the growing season is shorter, and rainfall less reliability This makes food security much more of a problem It is in these areas that the need for some supplementary irrigation to ensure reliable cropping is greatest In these areas a heavy reliance on cropping is a high risk strategy, and mixed farming system of both stock and cropping, with an emphasis on drought resistant crops, will help to spread the risk
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Chapter 1RESOCKCE base and development options
''■OLtaix,
2.         DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES
2.1 Plan Context
The Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan addresses  the development of ihe basin; this  includes  natural and human resources  as  well as  the water resources However, it is within the context of water resources management that the plan 1S set.
A river basin is a somewhat arbitrary unit for planning purposes .Although a natural setting for the developmenl of other natural resources, which are directly effected by the presence tf the nver system, it is a less obvious uni! for the planning of human resources, where social and economic  decisions  affecting the population are likely  to be made al a regional or national level
Notwithstanding the above, in formulating an integrated plan it is  important to adopt i holistic  treatment of all possible factors  which affect the river basin In general, there am three loci for addressing water resources issues, although none of them should be used fix planning in isolation from the others
Scope of Planning. L
Planning Level
.1 International issues and general policies 
National •
Waterresources developments directly influencing streamflow
Basin.
|    Natural    and    human    resource    developments    indirectly    affecting.    Regional streamflow ; J
2.2 Planning Process
The approach to the planning of water resources as a process that has gained favour in recent years is that outlined in the Water Sector Policy Review and Strategy Formulation a general framework   (1995),   jointly   produced   by   FAO  WB  and  UNDP  This  describes  the  Water
Management  Strategy  approach  and  list  seven  steps  outlining  the  structure  of  water  policy reforms
|Organising Principle for Water Resources Management -
Policy Review
[^^termine the importance nt water in tbe rjafibnal and social ecdnomic life
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Baiin Inugnted Devdop^cnt Master Pl*,.
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Cli«pter'resource base and development options As noted in the same document
volume n
Matter plans have a role to play in water resources management if they
are viewed as an investment plan according to the accepted strategy , and
should be placed firmly within the context of development goals and key
water related policies
The report notes  the deficiencies  of many  Master Plans, including a failure to address institutional and human resources  frameworks  The result is  usually  that the plans  lack flexibility and cannot be adapted to changing circumstances Within a very few years the plans bear little relevance to actual needs, and are discarded or ignored
The Consultants are well aware of the deficiencies and pitfalls, and have addressed them by defining an organising principle for basin integrated master plan development which draws on the experience of water policy review and strategy development
Organising Principle for Integrated Basin Planning
fj~: £ - V.
/
'.•Air A -J-,
jr>. —.1 ww'T'.fc- r.. X
-V
- • -
1. Policy Review >- ....                . ■ ;
Review and key water related policies Identify development goals
2. Strategy Formation , 
,
Identify objective of a water T^ourecs strategy
i:-
Identify principles yyhich should be respected in theplanning process Definescenarios under which plans should be evaluated
3.  Plan Formation
Assess the resource base
Ederitify and evaluate possible interventions in each sector
Optimise feasible interventions into a sector plan ■ .
an, integrated plan with an opfimkl combuiatidn'of sector plirisV?. Reviewihe piari with stakeholders
Ji
.<-¥i ■»jr ■ •
4- Master Plan Ini piemen la Ii u n
•v
r
<l;
-
:
--- -
-proposals, outputs and costs
Define an action programme and implementation strategy IdeptifyjDstituiional and finaticiM arrahgements? '
''    '?■ ■’ i •' -K <*iJ-
1
.-II Jlt-V.
This organising principle leads to the development of sector plans which can be implemented by different sector agencies outside the water sector, within a national or regional setting as appropriate It thus overcomes some of the problems identified in the previous section
The remainder of Section 2 deals with steps (I)and (2) above, and the rest of this volume and appendices with step (3) The next volume, Volume ITI will deal with step (4).
TamS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
Cbipter 2resource base and development options
2.3 Policy Review
2.3.1 Key Development Policies
No specific water resource sector policy has yet been published by the present Government Ethiopia  In  view  of  the  major  studies  now'  in  progress  in  several  river  basins,  it  i$  high]- desirable   that   such   a   policy   review   be   carried   out   tn   accordance   with   the   1995 FAO/WB.'UNDP    framework    This    would    provide    much    needed    guidance    to    thoj- undertaking   the   studies,   and   allow   a   uniformity   of   approach   in   regard   to   national   am international  issues  This  is  particularly  important  in  a  country  where  the  nver  basins  cm across regions with a high degree of regional autonomy
In  the  absence  of  such  a  policy  document,  the  consultants  have  relied  on  the  following  fcr guidance.
1 Ethiopia's Economic Policy During the Transitional Period November 1991
2. An Economic Development Strategy for Ethiopia MOPED September 1993
3.  National Population Policy of Ethiopia Office of Prime Minister April 1993
4   Agricultural Development Program (Draft) May 1994
5   Program  of  the  EPRDF  1995.  This  Sets  out  the  Government’s  political,  economic,  social and foreign policy objectives in point form, covering a large number of sectors
6    Action  Plan  of  the  EPRDF)or  Development,  Peace  and  Democracy  1995.  This  discusses how  the  priorities  were  arrived  at,  the  underlying  problems  that  the  plan  is  trying  w address, and some of the constraints which inhibit development.
7  Agriculture Sector Strategy 1995, thought to originate from the Prime Minister’s Office.
8    Wildlife Policy Discussion Paper August 1995, which was follow ed by a workshop and tN preparation  of  a  final  draft  in  early  1996.  The  latter  is  in  the  form  of  wildlife  managem^ policy
The policies  that most directly  impact on this  study  relate to the development of agriculture and energy  However, policies  in many  other areas  - fisheries, forestry, health, education, • also impact on the study to a significant extent.
Ethiopia's   Economic   Policy   during   the   Transitional   Period   is   a   broad   statement   of principles, with some policies in point form which are generally echoed in later documents
4m
DevdtipmeMf 5/rofegy for Ethiopia gives a 6 point description of Ethiop1^ 1 2 3 * 5
economic policy, which may be summarised as follows
1  replacing the command economy with a free market economy
2  enhancing popular participation
3  transforming the existing economic structure
4.         prioritising farming
5 ensuring links between agriculture and industry'
6. increasing the availability of foreign exchange
TAMS-ULQ Baro-Akobo River Batin Integrated Development Master PJi
CMjHer 2resource base and development options
This agriculture lead industrialisation strategy was deliberately chosen ovijf alternatives such as industry-led industrialisation, import substitution or export-led induitjiaiisation The
reasons for selecting it was that it would
•   have, as its focus, the bulk of the population,
•   const itut e a bas is for l he task o f st ructural transform at i on: and
•   lay the foundation for self sufficiency
Thf National Population Policy o/ Ethiopia identifies  the many  problems  associated with the burgeoning population, and draws  up a set of general objectives  for a reduction of population growth, reducing the rate of urban migration, and raising the economic  status  of women and vulnerable groups  Some very  specific  and ambitious  objectives  are also set, and strategy  for implementation is  also defined The implementation arrangements  provide for the establishment of Regional Population Councils, which embrace several Bureaux, including those of Natural Resource Development and Environmental Protection, and of Agriculture The measures assigned to the first bureau are for environmental protection, and are dealt with under the environmental action plan The measures  assigned to the second are for gender sensitive extension and increased agricultural production, covered under more general aspects of this master plan strategy
The Agricultural Development Program identifies  irrigation needs  under rural asset building, to include the development of whaler harvesting schemes, river diversion schemes, rehabilitation of traditional irrigation schemes  and the development of pump irrigation These indicative programmes  for these interventions  were to consume 5,6% of the USSM1.2I9 budget for agriculture, or USSM6 8.
The Program of the EPRDF and the Action Plan of the EPRDF for Development, Peace and Democracy provide the clearest statement of policy  for agriculture and energy  In these, the following points  are expounded:
'dgricitfacre
The economic  base of Ethiopia is  agriculture, where 85% of the population is  engaged, and this  should be the focal poult of development. This  will bring food at a reasonable price to urban dwellers  To do this, it is  necessary  to increase food production and animal husbandry In agriculture, fanners  need access  to modem agricultural inputs, capital, support from extension workers  and knowledge of modem fanning techniques  In the medium term, small scale irrigation needs  to be developed In animal husbandry, modem animal feed, improvement of veterinary  services  and stock  improvement are needed, favourable conditions for pastoralists  created, and markets  for animal products  developed, both internal and external,
Environmental protection is  addressed though increased productivity  on existing farmed land, 30,1 ^d water conservation, afforestation, forest and woodland protection, increased use of Plural fertilisers and the sparing use of chemical fertilisers.
Measures
N on-structural  measures  include  the  freedom  of  farmers  to  decide  the  crops  they  grow  and “fc  creation  of  a  free  market  for  the  sale  of  produce  A  price  intervention  mechanism  to
stabilise the
proposed private investors will be encouraged by the provision of
r AXls-nLG Bxro-Akobo River Basin Intcerated Development Master Man
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Chapter 2RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
V °I UNty
economic  and  social  services  The  expansion  of  farmer  organisations  and  strength^ participation of women are also envisaged
Land Ownership
The difficult issue of land ownership is also addressed, with the intention of crean
favourable conditions both for farmers and private investors to invest more in raisijj
agricultural production
Enerjo
The lack of electrical power throughout the country is seen as an obstacle to development - be resolved by expanding the gnd, doubling power production within 5-6 years,
encouraging private investors in small and medium scale power production
Infrastructure
The expansion and improvement of the road and rail system is called for, with a mechanise for user charges A gradual expansion of water supply and sewerage is called for, with loci management and user service charges  Labour intensive methods  are envisaged in the construction of both rural roads and potable water supplies, with local maintenance and, a the case of water supply, local management
Social Services
Health and Education are both addressed, with emphasis  on a preventive health policy, curriculum improvement, free education at primary and secondary level, and increased use of local languages and English while preserving Amharic
2.3.2 Development Goals
The policies described above are statements of general intent and emphasis, and tend to be defined for the short to medium term objectives. To be useful to the planning process, they must transcribed into specific objectives pertinent to the river basin so that a strategy for achieving them can be developed These objectives emerge most clearly from documents (2) and (3) at Section 2.3 1 above For the long term, the goal is simpler, full economic development of water resources of the Baro-Akobo basin. Within the context of an agricultural-led industrialisation strategy, the following pertinent objectives can be identified as components of the various terra goals
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26
Chapter 2RESOURCE base and development options
volume n
Obj ectives coinprising d tvclopment goals
. X. iitdlL
Maximise
• - i —-_r ' ~ f- '.f r
- .r_ ■>. r GtX ~JT-'
the numbers of people involved
proportion of food supply from in-country agricultural production supply of raw materials for agro-industry
private sector involvement production of exportable commodities
- .J— .
--i -
Equal
Minimise
potential demand for energy through] east-cost means
.    ■ \-l‘
f
. • - ■_
y
-
_______ ____________________ environmental costs
government involvement in operations imports -
*' ' ;;\ ■ ** " ii * -
'h* 
<■ i
Overall
----------- Maximise economic hrn<. Kt f
'
These are goals How they can be met is the subject of the strategy
2*4 Strategy for Implementation
A  resource  development  strategy  proposes  measures  to  manage  the  resources  in  accordance with   Government’s   goals   and   policies   Developing   a   strategy   also   tests   whether   these   goals and  policies  are  realistic  The  resources  development  strategies  in  this  study  optimise  the  use of  water  resources,  agricultural  land,  both  irrigated  and  rainfed,  and  other  land  using  systems eg livestock forestry, wildlife and tourism, to achieve the goals
The objective of the development strategy  in this  study  is  not just to identify  specific investment projects, as  is  usually  the case with master plans, but to provide broad directions for an investment program This  program emphasises  such aspects  ot resource development as  the necessary  institutional and human resources  framework, and will address  the medium to long term issue of building the country’s  water and natural resource management capacity In doing this the views of stake-holders will be included in the formulation process
’■ < 1 Principles of Planning
The Dublin Statement, issued by  the International Conference on W'ater and Environment UCWT) in 1992, and based upon many  years  of world-wide experience, listed four principles 10 applied in Water Resources Management
•   Water must be managed in a holistic way, taking interactions among users and environmental impacts into account
•   W'ater must be valued as an economic good and managed as a resource necessary to meet basic human rights.
1 ^STjEGBano-Akobii River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
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Chapter!RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
v 0tu Ml
•   Institutional arrangements must be reformed so that the stake-holders are-
involved in all aspects of policy formulation and implementation This means', management must be devolved to the lowest appropriate level, with enhanced • !
for NGOs, community groups and the private sector
•   Women must play a central part in the provision, management and safeguarding
water.
These principles  apply  equally  well to integrated natural resource development The holism approach, subject to the caveats  tn Section 2.1 in this  report volume, and the lmponanct i protecting the environment in order to both protect the catchment and to ensure that > sustainable approach to development is adopted, underlies the entire approach to this Marts Plan
2.4.2  Participation
The development objectives  set by  Government are essentially  people oriented with & emphasis  on improving the income and quality  of life of the Ethiopian people Govcmmed has stated that
The participation of the people, specially the rural population is decisive for fast u: sustained  development  All  the  economic  policies  of  the  Government  should  enhanct and encourage this participation " (Program of the EPRDF, Item 10 I)
These current development policies  are fundamentally  different from the policies  of the previous  regime, which, with its  Soviet style planning and “top down” approach tc development, saw people as little more than a factor of production
This  approach is  seen most clearly  in the Russian study  of the Baro-Akobo basin which focused on the physical and engineering aspects of water resource planning with no attempt to marry  this  with the impact on the livelihood of the people The study  was  essentially designed to explore the potential of the water resources of the basin and identify one or nw'{ projects  which were technically  sound rather than economically  desirable or environmental-'' sustainable
The people oriented, "bottom up" approach to water resource planning, now adopted by Government, is  in line with current development thinking The Dublin Statement identify sich an approach as  the only  one that would work  successfully  in water resource development
2.4.3  Financial and Economic Viability
Proposals for a particular intervention must be financially viable, i.e. will need to provide the users  with financial returns  which are sufficient to make their adoption of that system attractive A proposal for a crop production system, for example, which does  not provide tanners with an adequate return to land, capital and labour, particularly the latter, will fell10
e a opte however sustainable from an environmental perspective the system might be
i'nTrt,OnS als° 11376 t0 be economicaHy  viable and make the maximum poS5ibic vontnbution to Ethiopian economic growth Financial returns to the fanner may be attractive out, Lt due to macro-economic  distortions  through subsidies  they  are unattractive usmB
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economic   prices,   then   the   adoption   of   that   particular   intervention   will   not   be   in   the   national interest
To ensure both criteria are met. all proposed interventions  are tested for financial and economic  viability  before being included in the portfolio of possible interventions  Tests include the B/C (benefit/cost ratio) and N/K (modified B/C ratio), at the standard discount rate All interventions  are also examined for their Economic  and Financial ERR (internal rates of return)
2,4.4    Environmental Protection
The environmental impacts  of schemes  to supply, use and dispose of water are potentially large Dams  and reservoirs, aqueducts, river diversion, major irrigation schemes  and groundwater pumping, can have adverse impacts, affecting other users, future generations, fisheries  and wildlife The same applies  to many  other types  of resource development, especially  minerals  The study  pays  particular attention to such environmental impacts  as  a basic  step in formulating each intervention, and the costs  of measures  for environmental protection at the implementation stage, and the operational stage, are costed separately  for ease of identification
2.45 Sustainability
The     fundamental     principle     underlying     the     development     of     land     resources     is     that     of environmental and institutional sustainability.
The interventions  proposed in this  master plan are capable of continuing more or less indefinitely  without degrading the resource This  is  absolutely  critical, especially  in relation to soils, as  rates  of soils  degradation and erosion in Ethiopia have reached crisis  dimensions Unless  arrested, and reversed. Government goals  of raising agricultural productivity  are in
jeopardy.
Already  significant parts  of the Baro-Akobo basin are under threat due to increasing population pressure, leading to arable cultivation spreading to areas  with steep, erosion prone slopes  This  situation is  unsustainable and poses  a threat to both soil and water resources within the region Arresting the destruction of the resource base will be one of the priorities in the Master Plan.
Any  move towards  sustainable land use systems  will require institutional support in the form °f input supply, credit, extension and research services. If these services, whether from the private or public  sectors, are lacking then farmers  will be unable to adopt land use systems evcn though they  meet all the other criteria Accordingly, in formulating possible interventions, the institution support is  specifically  identified and in optimising the 'nterventions, the likely  level of support services  to be available is  set as  a constraint
■FL
ne operation of any plan or policy must be within the administrative capability of the epartments and agency involved. In making proposals under the Master Plan the institutions 
^sponsible for administration of interventions included in the plan are examined carefully 
■ where necessary, the need for institutional strengthening is identified
AWS-ITLG Uin>-Ahobo Rjvtr Basin JntcgritHl Brvdopmeut Master Plan
Chapter 2RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTION'S
2.5      Water Supply and Sanitation: Policy and Strategy
cirateffv towards waler supply and sanitation is described jq» Tie Ethiopian1996 While its strew aspires to many
° . “ 'contains weaknesses and ambiguities that hinder development by advent, issue” f human health and rhe growth of complementary sectors relymg on »lle
Th^Zier briefly reviews the Letter of Sector Policy, examines tssues related to
sectoral policy and strategy'
2 5.1 Letter of Sector Policy
The 1996 Letter of Sector Policy, hereafter referred to as  the Letter, was  drafted h tn- Ministry  of Water Resources  to guide development of water supply  and sanitation within Ethiopia .Among its  issues  are potable water supply, sanitation, decentralisation and regiom responsibilities, institutional capacity building, and finance
Waler supply
The  Letter  defines  adequate  water  supply  as  20  litres  per  capita  per  day  within  0.5  to  I.Oto from  a  dwelling  However,  the  present  standards  are  identified  to  be  35-40  1/cap/d  for  urban center   and   15-25   1/cap/d   for   rural   areas   While   it   aspires   to   World   Health   Organization (WHO)   recommendations,   the   Letter   makes   no   mention   of   potable   water   quality   or   of   the relationship    between   its   policy   and   recommendations   of   the   WHO   For   instance,   WHO recommendations   for   the   supply   of   potable   wafer   are   based   on   concepts   of   volume   ato quality   distance   from   dwellings   is   not   mentioned   WHO   recommendations   for   quantity   at potable  supply  are  about  double  those  aspired  to  by  the  Letter,  which  recognizes  that  only percent   of   Ethiopians   have   an   adequate   supply   according   to   its   standard   The   WHO   does have  3  recommendation  based  on  20  litres/cap/d,  but  these  are  for  emergency  situations  su^ as  refugee  camps.  Water  supply  relates  to  issues  beyond  maintaining  the  water  balance  of  t  ■ human body.
Cleanliness is also important Experience in refugee camps demonstrates that water supply below 8 litres/cap/day correlate to increased frequencies of cholera, typhoid, and disease the eye and skin Water quantity also relates to time of travel when water is hand carne 1992, Cairncross measured the correlation between time of travel and the amount of h carried water that arrived at its destination Her research showed that only within S-miu0 distance of a well was water supply likely to exceed 20 litres /cap/d, travel times betwe<" ’^
Xl‘' aS
«•“ <*»“ wi,h “”K'“si°ns 3nd ^»mm'"da"ons ,me”d'd “ ""P™
r
and 30 minutes provided an average supply of 16 litres'cap/d, thereafter, water supply s arp dropped, so that by 40 minutes of travel time it w as only 8 !itres/cap/day.
r
The letter also recommends methods of supply correlated to population size. These ? °
r
v j^ve
stepwise catagorization of communities, so that those with less than 100 people should access to a dug well, those between 101 and 400 people should have a dug well with a a pump fitted, large communities should operate a mix of piped supply and public roun The weakness of this recommendation is that it does not define community For eX^T1? ; does a community of 200 people live within 1 km  or 10 km
obligation For example, who fits the hand pump, who operates and maintains it.
3                      39 It also fails to
recovers its cost9
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akoto River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
CMP»er 2RESOURCE BASE AM) development options
VOLUME D
Sartilntion
The Letter defines  sanitation as  access  to a latrine. It makes  no consideration of the status  oi the facility  or a determination of its  primary  use It further recognises  that only  7 per cent of Ethiopians  have access  to a latnne By  its  brevity  the Letter treats  sanitation as  a topic  almost in passing For example, the Letter gives  no elaboration of sector objectives  or obligations other than presenting its definition of the subject
Decentralisation
In Ethiopia's  move towards  decentralisation, water and sanitation are among the responsibilities  to be assumed by  the regions  Under this  scheme, the federal government becomes  responsible for technical backup and a promulgator of laws, policies, regulations and directives  The role assumed by  the regions  as  defined by  the Letter includes  the following'
• To insure that central government laws, regulations and directives issued in relation to the conservation and utilisation of water resources are respected to regions
•     To control the implementation of the country's water resources development policies
•     To grant permits to persons engaged in water works construction activities, such as dams and other works, in view of utilising the water resources of the regions
•     To supervise the balanced distribution and utilisation of the water resources of the regions for various types of services or uses
•     Plan, study and design water supply schemes
•     Supervise and inspect the activities of water service units
•     Provide technical and maintenance services for the water service units and the rural water points, and
• Promote comma nity pan icipal ion.
n addition, the Regional Governments have the Authority to decide on water and tariffs 
ey also formulate their investment plans within the budget ceilings allocated to them by the e era^ Government Its Letter makes clear that central government wants to divest itself of
e day-to-day activities of supplying water While this is a credible undertaking, it is 
iguous about how this is to be done Why is the role of privatisation not included within scheme? Who will perform monitoring and who will monitor the monitors'7 The regions 
e to plan study, and design water supply schemes, but who is to implement them ’ What is rnmunity participation to mean other than the payment of tariffs?
1
S J>
a
acity building
th ner describes capacity building as institutional and skill development within (he cadre
petfS 6 amh’
and the need for extension to the Regional Bureaux, which are charged with
majority of the day-to-day work of water supply and sanitation The Letter is
resDn °US a^Oul how this is to happen. Given that there is to be a partitioning of IXS,k>ilities between federal government and its regions, it would seem that the need for
LLG Uaro-Akobu River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
Chapter 2RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
9
capacity   building   is   probably   greater   within   regions   A   more   refined   definition   of   federal
and
regional   responsibilities   coupled   with   an   inventory   of   manpower,   skills   and   means   at   the
tWc
layers of government are needed if capacity building is to be effective.
Financial matters
The supply of water is subsidised This has led to inter-sectoral conflict caused by delavs 
the flow of subsidies, when water supply utilities have been unable to pay their electricih
costs Attempts at cost recovery are difficult when water flows to public fountains. How '
people who hand carry their waler to pay  At what rate are they to be charged*’
The Letter describes  variances  and confusion throughout the country' as  different regions  and locations  within regions  devise and follow' their separate schemes  An underlying principal seems to be based on the ability to pay This is recognised in the letter
The Letter contains  a separate section on donor co-ordination, mentioning several done: countries  and projects  by  name Half of Ethiopia's  cunent non-defence budget relies  cm exterior sources  including grams  and loans  Despite international generosity  in support of Ethiopia's  ambitions, fund availability’ is  beginning to wane world-wide Fiscal responsibility will likely force a balance between aspiration and means
Part of this  could be achieved by  an assessment of administrative costs  within the Ministry  of Water Resources  The objective would be to reduce staff to only  those needed to provide essential services, the funds  thus  generated to finance the day-to-day  business  of regional potable water supply and sanitation
25.2 Strategy': a Master Plan Proposal
This  Master Plan concerns  only  part of Ethiopia, yet the question of water supply  and sanitation is  national in scope Although the text that follows  reserves  its  context to that of the Master Plan area, extension can be made to the nation The following paragraphs  concern issues  of water law, service, human health, and water use They  conclude with recommendations for the sector
Water law
The geographic  roots  of modem water law lie very  close to Ethiopia, initiating with ancient Egypt receiving influences  from China through Persia and Arabia, and culminating in two principles  (1) the doctrine of prior appropriation, and (2) that of reservation Pnor appropriation means  the right of abstraction is  based upon the date of claim It is  a right that can be sold and inherited Subsequent upstream claims  cannot abridge those of downsite3111 users  if downstream rights  precede in time those that are upstream Reservation means  that water can be abstracted, used, and returned, but it must be returned in a useable state to those whose requirements  must not be abridged If there is  a water shortage, then all water user? shaie equally  in it Different countries  or regions  within countries  subscribe to one or another or a mix of these basic concepts.
The Letter fails  to mention water law and we assume it is  an issue yet to be addressed There appear to be basic  notions  of equity  in Ethiopia, but these lack  definition. It would seem that dominion over water belongs  to the federal government, but federal government has  not defined how access to water is to be allocated or even defined the condition of used water it is willing to receive (which still belongs to government)
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Issues °f goanfity
Ethiopia’s    economy    continues    to    grow,    conflict    between    users    of    scarce    resources, including   water,   is   likely   to   expand   Users   of   water   include   people,   industry,   agro-industry, livestock, wildlife, and nations exterior to Ethiopia
Adequacy  is  defined as  20 litres  cap-1 day-J, but many  would consider this  inadequate to maintain long-term human health The questions  are not entirely  rhetorical For example, do communities  w hich by  and large only  pay  a portion of their bill for potable water have prior dolit over industries which conceivably pay their bill for water’’
Issues of qualify
The Letter views  water as  having only  one dimension volume Yet water can also be described in terms  of quality  bacteriological, physical, and chemical Human users  demand a certain quality  of water, industrial and livestock  users  are likely  to be satisfied with a diminished quality. Yet quality' is  an issue essentially  undefined other than the aspiration to achieve WHO recommendations  for potable water China, for example, recognises  five water quality  conditions, ranging from clean natural water to water suitable only  as  industrial coolant (World Bank, 1991J
The question is  important because water users  need to know the condition thev  need to maintain streams  that receive their effluent. Streams  in the Master Plan area, for example, receive about 650,000 tonnes  of coffee waste annually  Coffee waste is  a serious  agro industrial effluent that causes  serious  pollution if discharged directly  into streams  (World Bank, 1991). There is  no documentation to describe the condition of water courses  upstream of these plants, though one would assume their water to be clean Are coffee producers obligated to maintain receiving streams  in a clean, natural state9 The Letter does  not say, nor does  it mention the quality  that downstream users  should expect It is  an issue that requires clarification, through law' if not by policy
Human health and waler treatmen!
Potable water means  that water needs  to be fit for human consumption Human health also demands  sufficient water to maintain hygiene bodies  need to be washed and dishes  cleaned, ^ater treatment is part of the process of making sure this can happen
T he  Letter  is  ambiguous  on  this  point  Communities  with  less  than  100  people  can  have  a  dug w ell.  yet  samples  of  water  in  the  Master  Plan  area  show  nitrogen  ion  concentrations  in  excess 0      WHO    recommendations    at    about    a    third    of    the    sites    measured    Nitrate    concentrations greatSr     than   10   mg   litre-1   are   linked   to   oxygen   deficiency   in   premature   babies   and   stomach Cancer     in   adults   Drilled   wells   might   be   safer,   but   shallow   groundwater   in   the   lower   basin 4      excessive   concentrations   of   iron,   copper,   and   other   constituents   only   in   deep   artesian sh^1      |CrS      'S      *l      potable.    Communities    abstracting    water    from    open    rivers    and    reservoirs 
d    have    their    water    treated    by    settling,    filtration,    and    chlorination    Chlorination    should
0
re    (hat   there   is   residual   chlorine   reaching   to   the   most   distant   location   No   delivery'   should
ci   ehVeeT1     ^e   poini   of   abstraction   and   the   treatment   plant   Illegal   taps   should   be   fined r epaj   3^   ^'arer   costs   should   include   the   cost   of   depreciation   so   that   lhe   facility   can   be c °stoff Per'°^'cady replaced Municipal taxes have to be sufficiently high to cover the
taps
B
aru-AkobD River Bai in Integrated Development Muster Plan
—-________ ______ _____ ____ ____
Chapter 2RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELO
PMENT OPTIONS
VOLlT^i^
uwrr.w
* w,«w«  ^*vw<w
z
u iajmhiuuui vi pi unary treatment
Medium and small towns should rely either upon sealed tanks whose contents
towns  should have access  to ventilated improved pit latrines  of the type occasionally  seen ■ the countryside Elementary  sanitation needs  to become part of the health mess™ promulgated by health centres
Sanitation implies  more than sewage Sewage lines  should be installed at the same time as water supply  lines  in order to avoid trenching the same street twice Solid waste disposal IS required for sludge, and it may  as  well be expanded to include other municipal wastes Chlorination is  required for sanitation as  for water supply, and both pose risks  to workers Sanitation, like water supply  and solid waste disposal, is  expensive and can account for 30-
60 percenptituoafa,mun</ici i paal revev^ninuuemsauvu <zx utv ir»u. v magvd auu pilVALC UUUSenOIOS OUtSlde Clf
liwnivill
tnaiMA
A« t r** nv-ft-
_ £* ▲ L. — a. - .
•
Much of the labour of solid waste disposal, sanitation, and water supply  is  more amenable to municipal management than either regional or federal control, and some parts  of it rightly belong to the private sector Systems  have to be designed with economies  of operation and of scale in mind Data (that do not exist at present) about receiving stream quality  and sewage strength are required for design Thus, lead time is required for study and design Data
collection should precede design by  several annual cycles  if a complete understanding of system requirements  is  to be fully  achieved Data collection should comply  with standards  of adequacy and consistency, but these have not been defined by Ethiopia
Solid wastes
Solid waste collection and disposal fits  in with sanitation and is  expandable to include other municipal waste As  with water supply  and sanitation, it needs  to be sized to fit the requirements  of the town large towns  need more than small towns  It also needs  to be phased to fit urban expansion And it needs  to be cheap. Tractor drawn wagons  sealed against livestock  and rodents  would liberate vehicles  for multiple uses  throughout smal communities  The environmental mitigations  described for solid waste disposal in Annex  , Environment, describe some of the design implications required by solid waste sites.
Used water
It  then  needs  to  require  treatment  of  used  water  by  point-source  polluters  so  that  overall  water
niialitv is not diminished It
rhat there should be a licensing Drocedure applied to
Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) or the Ministry of Water Resources0
monitor, and who will monitor the monitors0 Who will serve and collect the fines an
0
whom will the money go  These are issues of jurisdiction If regionalisation is to
successful, then the role of establishing guidelines belongs to the federal government, the ro of servicing them belongs to the regions and municipalities.
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Chapter Iresource base and development options                         volume n
Monitoring
.    ..
Monitoring of water quality and quantity is time consuming and expensive There are several w ays of lessening direct costs at the expense of indirect costs For example, the recent rise of typhoid in Addis Ababa (The Monitor, 10 Sep 1996) indicates that raw sewage is entering municipal water supplies and that chlorination is insufficient
Table 9 in Annex A of Annex 4. Environment, summarises WHO water quality guidelines gits to assess concentrations of constituents are reasonably inexpensive but personnel and time are not Still, it is a process that needs to be earned out, ideally by the organisations that operate water supply and waste water treatment plants In turn, there needs to be oversight of monitoring by  either the EPA or the Ministry  The Letter should identify  monitoring methods, standards, and frequencies believed by the Ministry or the EPA to be appropriate
2.5.3 Recommendations
In view of the above, this Master Plan concludes there arc weaknesses in the policy of the Ministry of Water Resources towards water supply and sanitation as expressed in its Letter of Sector Policy  dated January', 1996 These weaknesses  endanger public  health and the Environment By failing to identify the responsibilities of water users towards water quality, the Ministry  creates  ambiguities  that allow water users  to become water polluters  By identifying regional responsibilities  towards  water and then not identifying how these responsibilities will be carried out, the Ministry forestalls, albeit unintentionally, the effective execution of its regional policies
We therefore recommend the following course of action
•    Ethiopian water law needs a basis that allows for the equitable distribution of safe water according to different categories of use
•    Natural waters need definition as to their quality That basic quality should not then be infringed by users
*    Monitoring of water quality and quantity needs to be improved in terms of adequacy and compliance with internationally recognised standards
* The means by which regions are to address water supply and sanitation need to be more fi'Uy described Ideally, municipalities need the power to tax their citizens for the cost of services those citizens receive
T^e   role   of   privatisation   in   the   water   supply   and   sanitation   sector   needs   further elucidation
L*g>l Aspects Of International Waters Of Ethiopia
* Introduction
resc^ a^r,Cu*tural country  water together soil, is  one of Ethiopia s  most important natural S'” But’ if water is  important to Ethiopia, it is  also important to the other npanan dim " t0 Wiuch these waters  flow and are shared This  brings  into play  the international
J ens,°n Of water resources a dimension of both nghts and obligations universally
ULG Bar»-Akobo River Basin lategrated Development Muter Plaa
35
Chapter 2RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
v OLL;M£j
recognised,   peculiar   to   the   hydraulic   characteristics   of   this   resource   and   its   necessity   fQ survival and sustainable economic development
2.6.2 Classification of International Water Resources
To understand and apply  the principles  of international water law to specific  transboun^ surface and ground water conditions, it is  important to place them in the context of how these waters  are classified under the law This  classification may  not be consistent with, no- relevant to. technical disciplines, but are essential to realistically  identifying and a$setti» rights  and assessing obligations  II is  the beginning of forming a strategy  for sustainable development of transnational water resources, either within the client riparian nation, or the
jointly planned and executed with one or more co-riparian nations
In the evolution of international water law, a number of terms  have become commonly  used "Riparian" refers  to a nation from which iransboundary  waters  arise or flow through Initial!,
the main " watercourse" or mainstream was  the focus  of determining co-riparian rights, as  the uses  were primarily  for navigation and other non-consumptive uses  Tributaries  flowing into the main watercourse within the boundaries  of one nation, were solely  under the jurisdiciicr of that nanon Tributaries  that were transnational and navigable to a mainstream, were accorded similar status to the mainstream
Waler quality has long been recognised as an important component of international water
law, but mostly as resulting from human activity that interfered with or prevented n
downstream riparian from using water, or caused direct harm. During the last two decades 
consideration of the environment and ecology of catchment areas has broadened the range at interdependencies, and has greatly expanded the role of water quality rights and
responsibilities under international law
The more recent trend has  been to also take into account "regional" interdependencies. iS quite often, the development of water resources  in one basin or sub-basin produces  benefits  m another, and possibly  in another nation or pan of a co-ripanan nation Therefore, to conced e and achieve optimum sustainable resources  development, a "regional planning approach wi i most often yield a wider set of negotiating strategies  and options  for the co-riparian in the exercise of their international law rights over transnational waters
2.6. J Categories of International Water Resources
National Waters
The  first  category  in  the  classification  system  is  for  surface  and  ground  water  solely  w11   1
the boundaries  of one nation This  includes  streams  and lakes  within one country  that rise an flow to the sea or a sink, and tributary  and non-tributary  ground water within one country Over these waters, international law has  no application, national water and related la*5 apply
International Waters
The second category is surface water (rivers, lakes and other natural surface bodies of watef arising in or flowing through two or more riparian nations that form a watercourse system International groundwater includes transboundary aquifers, and groundwater hydrological connected (tributary) to transboundary surface water International water law principle-’ apply, if asserted, and national water and related laws are subject to the enforced or agfJ£’ed upon international water law
.
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Cbapier'RESOURCE base and development options
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Internationalized Waters
The category of "internationalised waters' is unique to international rivers and lakes that are navigable It applies to those navigable watercourses that have been used or rights granted to use tor transport by non-riparian carriers or flag ships It would appear applicable to the Sobat and White Nile to Khartoum where, in the past there has been navigation downstream from Ethiopia
2 6. 1 Type' of International Water Resources
All international waters are classified as either consecutive or contiguous with respect to the boundaries  of sovereign riparian nations  Some international rivers  may  be variously classified as consecutive or contiguous, depending upon relationship to the boundaries of the riparian Although the principles  of international water law apply  to all International waters, the very’ nature of whether the waters are consecutive or contiguous will determine "how" the principles would or should be applied
Cwtsecurnr
International waters designated as consecutive are
•  transboundary surface water flowing or passing from one riparian nation to
another, and
•   groundwater hydrologically connected to transboundary surface waters and
underground streams
These waters  give rise to the "upstream-downstream" syndrome, a universally  particular defensive attitude or position of co-nparian depending upon their geographic location in the basin.
Contiguous International waters are
•   rivers and lakes forming the boundary between two or more riparian nations and
•   transboundary aquifers
’‘ here a river or lake is designated as contiguous, the related issues of border or boundary ocahon arise and can very often be a source of dispute that over-shadows the relevance of
water There are three common rules recognised by international law for determining this lssue of boundary location
* <he talweg or deepest channel of a river, which may shift periodically 
throughout a year.
•he bead or centre of the river based upon either the normal walers edge or high  water  mark,  which  may  cause  some  unexpected  results  in  reaches  of ivers depending upon the circumstances;
° ne  or  the  other  side  of  the  river  as  agreed  upon  or demarcated boundary in which the co-riparian would define the boundary in specific terms
One
lhe f*cu,’arity of the hydraulic nature of contiguous rivers or for rivers with islands under PeonlJ^8 nile’1S t0 shift or change their course, thereby placing land (and sometimes 
^hjraiiOn the'other side of the border". Applying the rules generally, these shifts if occur Negot; y.‘causc a change in the border location and hence the jurisdiction ol the npanan
atln8 a settlement of these anomalies can be sensitive and protracted.
•rO'Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
37
Chapter 2RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
2.6.5     International Water Lan'
International law generally, and equally applicable to international waler law, is based three sources: customary international law, general principles common to major 1^" systems, and international agreements.
Customary' International Lan-
Customary international law is based upon universally accepted principles among nations on a particular issue as evidence from common practices of states, and interpretations b
juridical bodies such as the International Court of Justice, International Arbitration Trfbutialj and decisions of the highest court of a country As applied to water law, four customan international water tan doctrines are recognised
v olvme
Cgsl
The    most    commonly    referred    to    document    containing    the    universally    accepted    customary international  water  law  principles  is  the  Helsinki  Rules  of  1968  This  was  an  attempt  by  the International    Law    Association    to    codify'    customary    law    on    the    subject    of    Non-navigable Rules  for  Sharing  Transboundary  Water  Resources  It  sets  out  the  principle  of  reasonable  and equitable  utilisation  of  these  walers,  and  provides  a  list  of  ten  factors  and  circumstances  to  be included   in   making   this   determination   In   1970,   the   Rules   were   to   vote   before   the   Untied Nations,  but  failed  to  receive  the  necessary'  percentage  of  support  to  transform  it  into  a  UN Convention   That,   however,   does   not   diminish   its   accuracy   as   a   reflection   of   customary international    water    law,    it    merely    reflects    the    special    interests    and    differences    between upstream and downstream riparian
General Principles Common to Major Legal Systems
Similarly,   the   second   source   acknowledges   that   major   legal   systems   exist,   such   as   common law,   civil   law.   mixed   common   and   civil   law,   socialist   law,   and   Islamic   law   Within   tbe« systems  of  law,  there  is  a  common  thread  on  some  issues  or  topics,  such  as  water,  air,  la^ rights   and   use,   inheritance,   marriage,   etc.   Therefore,   the   precedent   or   practice   could   b< applied among parties to a dispute who apply the same or similar "legal system”
International Agreements
.
The third source are international agreements resulting from negotiation and muiua
agreement of the parties on a particular issue or topic, They are in two distinct forms 
“treaties" and "conventions*. Treaties are binding upon the signatory parties and genet
follow the Vienna Convention on the Law' of Treaties of 23 .May 1969, which is 
codification of customary international treaty law
Conventions, such as the Law of rhe Sea Convention, may or may not be binding upon
parties because they are subject to a much wider degree of interpretation However, due to
a   al
very nature of how conventions emerge, they are often applied in argument, not only  S
nations that signed the Convention, but against non-signatory' nations as indicative
universally accepted positions on that issue or topic
The formulation of an agreement among riparian to co-operate in a constructive and mutual!,
beneficial manner for the sustainable utilisation of their shared international water resources 
is a complex task. It necessitates the consideration of a wide variety of issues, some of w lC
are apparent and of immediate concern, others which are obscure, but fundamental to the
successful achievement of a fair and implementable agreement.
i
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35
CbBptef7iIM? ?
ernational river or lake is navigate in fact, it may be used by nationals of one riparian to * over or through the temtonal boundaries of another riparian, subject only to reasonable
po^1 On by riparian for health, customs and security reasons This principle may apply to of 311 international river, such as where the river forms the boundary between two
u pstrln disable portions of the river may shift within the river bed, or where an
d 0Vv_Cani riparian needs passage to open water down a river that goes through the
of th- ^-riparian state If a navigable river is subject to acquiescence or an agreement
c| as2arian 51316510 allow non-nPanan flag ships use of the river, the river may be
lc as an "internationalised river" for freedom of passage purposes
freedom P^age and non-interference of migratory aquatic species is an extension of the
rESOI'RCe base and development options volume n
2 6.6 General Principles Of Customary International Water Law
Four general principles  of customary  international water law that are near universally recognised are sovereign equality, freedom of navigation, free from harm (no harm), and equitable apportionment or sharing The latter three are premised upon the first, a concept of civilised society as equally difficult to precisely define as the other three Three principles have emerged as the reasonable and logical extension of one or more of the other four: freedom of passage and non-interference of migratory  species  of aquatic  life, duty  to compensate for harm caused, and a duty to inform
Customary  international water law applies  to both water quantity  and quality  For water quantity, the law concerns the rights to sharing or allocating water for its development and utilisation For water quality, the concern is not to degrade the natural quality of the water such as  to interfere with the rights  of use of downstream riparian Because of the non- homogeneous  nature of water world wide, both spatially  and temporally, the general principles  discussed below must be interpreted and applied in the context of specific circumstances and changing global norms. For example, what may be considered to be a degradation of water quality in one river basin due to the reduced assimilative capacity of a river in the dry season, may be irrelevant in another part of the world where there is no population affected
Sovereign Equality
The sovereignty and equality of states represent the basic constitutional doctrine of the law of nations Indeed the whole of law could be expressed in terms of co-existence of sovereignties with the institutional aspects of organisations of states result(ing) in an actual, as opposed to a formal, qualification of the principle of sovereign equality  Essentially, sovereignty  equates with independence, the fundamental authonty of a state to exercise its powers without being subservient to any  outside authonty  There is  a proviso that the nature of territorial sovereignty  necessarily  implies  the fundamental limitation that no state has  the right to Im pose its will on the territory' of another as by general and customary law, such as the right 0 innocent passage and freedom of navigation on the high seas and international waterways,
the equitable use of water resources upon which other states depend also is mandated by tnternational law.
°f navigation or passage
e freedom of navigation or passage has been universally recognised as one of the oldest at  Ona* Water law principles, if the facts fit the circumstances. That is to say, if an
during l° P^sage principle.
(
It has become of importance on international river, particularly 
r, ^er hasC tWo decades, where the construction of dams or other obstructions across a
__ Prcvented the natural migration of fish either whose sustainable existence depends
____ _____________________________________
* °~Akobo River Basin Integrated Devdopocnt Master Plan
r
Chapter!RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
upon reaching spawning areas upstream, or where upstream riparian inhabitants deDenrf
the fish as a source of food
The  “no  harm”  and  "equitable  utilisation”  principles  arc  applicable  globally,  but,  they somewhat ambiguous and defy clear definition The no harm doctrine means that a ripar)ifl state  should  utilise  an  international  river  in  such  a  manner  so  as  not  to  cause  signifies (substantial, appreciable or determinable) harm to other riparian states This implies the righ: of a state to unilaterally make use of waters in their tenitory, but with a responsibility in the event such action causes another harm to another state It pertains to both quantity and quality of the international waters
The principle on equitable apportionment (or equitable utilisation) acknowledges  the right of a state to a reasonable and equitable use (share) of an international watercourse, with i general condition that such apportionment be determined by  all relevant factors  ax circumstances  Both are given credibility  by  the universally  accepted principle that one should exercise one's right so as not to injure another.
Compensation for Causing Harmful Effects
The duty to compensate for harm done is a logical extension of the principle or duty not to cause harm, and has become a common practice of state responsibility acknowledged by the members   of   the   United   Nations   Under   principles   of   international   law,   there   exists requirements  for  compensation,  as  well  as  access  to  an  even  more  comprehensive  set  ci alternatives  for  circumstances  where  one  party  finds  it  necessary  to  seek  redress  against another party(ies) for injury or damages
Duty to Inform
The  final  general  principle  of  customary  international  water  law  is  the  duty  to  inform  This too,  is  an  extension  of  the  duty  not  to  cause  harm  and  the  duty  to  compensate  for  hare caused It is both a preventive and mitigating measure that has become a recognised common practice  of  nations  It  is  particularly  applicable  to  the  development  and  use  of  transboundary international   waters,   and   is   contained   in   the   ILC   Draft   Convention   on   International Watercourses Simply stated, it is the duty of a riparian to inform other riparian of actions that it might or will take that would potentially cause an adverse or harmful affect upon the other riparian
For   example,   the   construction   of   a   dam   or   other   structure   across   an   international   °r internationalised river, or the extraction  of water in such volumes or at such times, the result 01  which  either  may  cause  harm  or  interfere  with  the  rights  of  other  riparian  By  "informing" the  other  riparian,  it  demonstrates  "good  faith”  compliance  with  the  spirit  of  international  law and  it  shifts  the  burden  to  the  other  riparian  to  carry  out  their  "due  diligence"  and  raise  any objections  Failure  of  the  latter  to  object,  may  arguably  be  considered  as  a  "no  objection and/or  waiver  of  their  rights.  In  effect,  the  duty  to  inform  properly  carried  out,  may  prevent harm   or   the   infringement   of   another’s   rights   by   allowing   an   opportunity   to   negotiate   » mutually acceptable solution
But the duty to inform may also apply to timely informing downstream riparian of impend* ? harm caused by or in the upstream riparian nation In effect, the "early warning" may Preve or mitigate the harm that could be caused Concurrently, it may absolve or limit the poten > liability depending on the nature of the event, timeliness of information, and ability to response by the downstream riparian.
0
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
Chapter IrESol’RCE base and development options
2 & 7 [focfrines Of International Wafer Law
volume n
The application of the customary  international water law principles  have been translated into several doctrines  that take into account the unique context of international water resources, the hydraulic  characteristic  of water, and the geographic  location riparian. The four most commonly  cited international water law doctrines  are absolute territorial sovereignty, which favours  upstream riparian, absolute territorial integrity, which favours  downstream riparian, limited territorial sovereignty, which recognises  the rights  of all riparian to an equitable share and right to use the transboundary  water resources, and community of interests, under which the transboundary water resources are considered as common property
There is  no universal acceptance or know application of either of the first two doctrines because neither reflects  reasonableness  nor equality  among sovereign nations  when applied to a hydraulic  uni-directional resource such as  water The third is  universally  accepted by nations and juridical bodies, and the fourth is gaining wider acceptance
Absolute Territorial Sovereignty
The doctrine of absolute territorial sovereignty holds  the upstream riparian has  no obligation to a downstream riparian and may  use all the waters  that arise within its  boundaries  as  it see fit The doctrine gained its  notoriety, if not its  origin, from the legal opinion of US Attorney General Harmon in 1895 in response to an objection by  Mexico (downstream riparian) and the use of waters  by  the US (upstream riparian) on the Rjo Grande Harmon "concluded that because the United States  has  sovereignty  over the Rio Grande in its  territory, therefore international law imposed no obligation upon the United States  to share the water with Mexico However, in 1945, US Secretary of State Acheson repudiated this doctrine
Absolute Territorial Integrity
The doctrine of absolute territorial integrity, holding in reverse, prevents  the upstream riparian from making interference’s  to the natural flow, thus  favouring the downstream n panan This  doctrine has  likewise been dismissed as  unreasonable for it gives  the downstream state an unquestionable right of veto.
-t/mted Territorial Sovereignty/Integriiy
he doctrine of limited territorial sovereignty or more commonly know as the doctrine of j^onable and equitable utilisation, has gained credibility and near universal acceptance
ausc it recognises the rights of all riparian to an equitable sharing and utilisation of the ( ^ nsb°undary waters. The first written form of the doctrine's application to decide a dispute
Ween co-nparian was in 1907 when the US Supreme Court set the standard for interstate allocation in its brief but monumental decision of Kansas v. Colorado (206 US 47).
interna’
thC th eory of COfnrntmir
.
> of interests which has emerged out of agreement in some
of ihejj.101131 river bas'ns of riparian states to consider the hydrologic basin covering the parts as an interdependent economic and environmental unit to be collectively 
evetv eff eve'°PrTient and managed through positive co-operation The co-nparian make
°C la^e advantage of the strategic hydro-geographical features within the basin to
d Feal
and minimise harmful effects from the natural occurrences and
not    a    ^CveloPracnt    efforts.    Equitable    apportionment    and    utilisation    by    individual    states    is 
rna HateI?Slraint
strive toward optimum sustainable development and environmental
® through a free exchange of information, the co-ordinated planning, development
---- — ______________ -_____ _____
A kobo River Buin Integrated Dc^opment Mauer Plan
Chap l er 2RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
V °WM
E(
and   management   of   the   transboundary   water   and   related   resources,   and   a   balan benefits to be derived so that Lhe co-riparian are treated equally.
This may appear very idealistic and non-achievable, but the precedence for its acceptabilr. exists in varying degrees However, although the concept may be highly desirable and \ gaining in acceptability, it has not reached to status in state or international practice to considered a norm or "principle" of international law
c,ll g of
Co-riparian often view the shared waler resources  as  their common property  Historically  the freedom of navigation (right of free passage) treats  navigable international watercourse t common property or a special interest of the community of riparian
2 6.8 International Waters of Ethiopia
Surface and Ground Waters
Ethiopia has the distinction of being an "upstream riparian" on one of the worlds great rive
system, the Nile, with the source of the Blue Nile rising in Ethiopia and the Baro-Akobo
River system forming an important tributary to the White Nile “Downstream riparian'’ oc 
this river system are Sudan and Egypt With other rivers rising in the Ethiopian Highlands the
country' is also an upstream riparian with respect to Somalia, Eritrea and Kenya
With respect to the Baro-Akobo basin, all waters  can be thought of as  “international” waters with flows  being across  the border and into Sudan "Consecutive" water; or forming the boundary between Ethiopia and Sudan “Contiguous" water
Groundwater in Ethiopia appears  to be of limited amount and mostly  hydrological!} connected to surface water sources. There was  no evidence provided of underground nvef5h and therefore it must be concluded that most groundwater would be classified consistent with their respective surface water sources  if it is  proved that the groundwater flows  cross  t e border
Spatial and Temporal Distribution
Another aspect of the international waters  of Ethiopia, other than source, is  their uneven spatial and temporal distribution that affeci the surface and ground water sources. More than 70°<i of the rainfall occurs  during the summer months  from May  to September, and although f e Baro-Akobo basin is  an area of relatively  plentiful water much of the country, and *IS downstream riparian neighbours are areas of water stress
The significance of this  uneven distribution in time and space to the international aspects  of the surface and ground waters  is  the variation in availability  for use of the water both if Ethiopia and in the downstream States  If water is  to be utilised effectively, regulation and storage is necessary
Waler Qualify
At  present,  the  primary  concern  has  been  with  the  quantity  of  the  international  waters  wjw' Ethiopia,  there  does  not  appear  to  be  significant  water  quality  problems,  except  in  local*5 areas,   thal   can   not   be   properly   addressed   through   regulation   Consequently,   on   the   Bare Akobo   cross-border   flows,   no   problems   presently   exist   from   industrial   discharge   of   wasteS but   consideration   over   sedimentation   arising   from   the   extensive   erosion   within   the   upp^ catchment  should  be  of  concern  both  to  Ethiopia  and  the  downstream  riparian  as  this  affcCti the environment and use of water
TAMS-ULG Bim-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
Ch*p'cr 2RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
VOLUME II
, 9 (Jniqtteness of Ethiopia 's Geographic Position
From   ihe   international   waters’   perspective,   Ethiopia   is 
cons
idered
an
upstre
am   riparian   This 
c0Eraphic   location   within   a   basin   or   catchment   area
gives 
rise
to
the   uni
versal   position   of
upstream   riparian   as   to   their   rights   over   such   wate
rs   ari
sing
withi
n   their
boundaries   This 
wS jtion   is   generally   one   of   "ownership*   over   these   w
aters 
when
it
comes 
to   apportionment
issues  In the case of Ethiopia, this  is  complicated by  the extensive utilisation of downstream waters  which have a long historical record However the rivers flow from the Baro-Akobo faver Basin contributes by about less than 8% of the total flaw reaching the Aswan High Dam. This amount could eventually be considered as marginal in the way that this flow is in the same magnitude of the range of the uncertainties of the J.rwari High Dam inflow.
2.7 Planning Scenarios
The development options  within the project area compose a series  of interventions  in different sectors, appropriate to particular local conditions  in the basin. Some are large scale, such as  the construction of dams  Others  are small scale, such as  a programme to plant community  woodlots  in dozens  of villages  around a single tree nursery  The process  of formulating and evaluating interventions  is  described in Chapter 4 Once confirmed as meeting the planning criteria, the interventions  are evaluated under the strategy  in terms  of their contributions to realising goals
The goals  themselves  change over time, and so do the constraints  of available human and economic  resources  The demands  also change as  the population grows  and changes  in structure, affecting production targets  expressed as  the sum of individual human needs  Each combination of these factors  constitutes  a planning scenario, and if too many  are considered, not only  is  the problem of calculation greatly  increased, but so is  the problem of interpretation
The  factors  which  have  been  considered  for  each  scenario  are  identified  in  the  following  sub sections
*’ ^-l Planning Periods
™ present the development c
Plan adopts a
formulated fot
Government of Ethiopia is  facing resource constraints  that preclude a massive rf the natural resource potential of the country  Bearing this  in mind the Master staged approach to the Development of rhe Baro-Akobo Basin with strategies 
--T   ®ach   of   four   planning   periods   between   specific   time   horizons.   One   of   the
s jL^Onstraints      faced    by    the    Government    of    Ethiopia    is    a    budget    constraint.    Within    the
bg
(o
|     Crc’s     a     considerable   amount   of   engineering   for   hydropower   and   irrigation,   that   could
the  tom   how®ver>  engineering  is  expensive  and  to  keep  things  in  context  one  needs  to  look  at
doqOr      f    caP'tai    budget    for    Ethiopia.    The    capital    budget    for    1992/93 Fjgu      ,    ,    ,ed      capital    expenditure,    is    shown.    The    yearly    distribution
43 c 1 helmai
-    1996/97,
including
is    illustrated
by    the
------■
River Basin Integrated Development Muter Plan
C
hapter 2RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
Figure 2'1
Government Capital Budget Summary
Government Capital Budget Summary
1992/93 -1996/97
a
f
=
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
Ye*r
There are potential projects  within the basin that, in total capital cost, are larger than Ethiopia’s  total capita! budget1 Clearly, projects  selected will need to be of a size and cos that can be accommodated within this budget
The planning periods for used for this master plan are:
- -u._«
DevelopmcntPe
Immediate T iz'
ShortiEerm :
MediumTerm <
lltimale 'Dcvdopmehf
Planning Horizon
From year; Toyear
r.
The first planning period, the Immediate Period, rhe next 5 years, the strategy is to formulaic and implement interventions which are easily implementable, will produce quick results become effective within the next few years Many of these interventions need imm 1 implementation in order to protect the resource base of the basin. Failure to implement t interventions will lead to irreversible damage to soil and water resources within the re®’..£
Also included under this category will be recommendations with respect to emergency pu health measures, and the gazetting of National Parks and forests.
Second is the Short Term, from the year 2000 to 2015, when the strategy is to fIieC
j
( or]S
present goals of government to achieve rapid rural development The proposed interv will have to be further studied and designed in detail in the immediate period. Under t e term strategy are included such interventions as small scale irrigation, small town P° water supply and low cost natural resource development
Third is the Medium Term, from the year 2015 to 2030, when strategy is to meet longer objectives. This will include the implementation of the most economically and finar’v' attractive of the water resource development options The barrier to faster develcpn ^
1
these options will be the availability of fimding and other resources. IAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Buid Integrated Development Master M«n
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Cli*PIcr 3rFSO
urce base and development options
VOLUME IJ
. final, period encompasses the Ultimate Development The strategy in this period is to
nlement the full, optimal utilisation of the water resources within the basin for irrigated
riculwre. water supply and hydropower development Many of the projects identified
annot be implemented until conditions of demand change, but in terms of providing the
blueprint for ultimate water requirements within the basin they are important
Within  each  planning  period,  the  planning  targets  are  set  in  terms  of  the  expected  demand  at the end of the planning period, subject to any constraints that might apply during that period
2 72 Constraints
Two kinds  of constraint apply  to development There are the constraints, generally geographical, imposed by  the nature of the implementation. There is  only  a finite area where soils  and land slopes  are suitable for flood irrigation, or number of dam sites  where hydropower can be economically  developed These constraints  are considered sector by sector where the maximum possible number of each kind of intervention is  considered in the appraisal of development options
The second type of constraint are those imposed by  demands  on resources  exogenous  to the sector These constraints  are on items  like road capacity, trained government staff available and budget These will vary' over different time periods. For the immediate term, the existing capacity  is  used For future periods, allowance is  made for the likely  growth of resources  in an expanding economy, and for the increase in trained personnel emerging from Government colleges
The regional budgets  for 1995 are summarised in the table below, which shows  the capital ind recurrent costs  by  sector as  defined in Government budgets  It is  noteworthy  that the operational budget is  low compared with the capital budget, indicating that unless  many  of 1 c  Government programmes  are self sustaining in operation (which is  unlikely) then many current investments cannot be sustained.
Regional Government Capital Budget 1995/96 (Birr million)
Gambela
Benshangul
Oromiya
f ‘ otiomicLDeceit
'  ueveiopment
Agricultural Development
7.10
4.83
026
77.96
Natural Resources
0 75
29 26
Water
135 37
Roads
1.96
11.35
3.87
12.09
45 30
Transport and
4.24
Communication
^ngand Energy
260
0.47
? . Industry
0.81
021
Ration
Health
f ieveloPment
10,08
12.13
3.40
1.80
17.44
11.93
48.60
44 00
0 83
10.03
61.75
640
13.33
et
51.17
405.48
^Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Muter Plan
45
South. Peoples
61 79
4 20
13.83
69 25
0 15
48 98
51.26
14.74
16.38 280.58
Chapter 2resource base and development options 2 73 Weighting of Objectives
Clearly not all the Government goals can be achieved in full simultaneously, nor do(hev carry the same importance in each time frame Strategies have to be devised which manv of the goals as possible at the appropriate time Thus for each planning compromises have to be made to redefine the goal as a balance of the develop objectives
For   the   purpose   of   the   Baro-Akobo   River   Basin   Integrated most relevant development objectives are
•    Arrest depletion of soils fertility and water resources
•    Increase production of subsistence agriculture
•    Increase production from existing cash crops:
•    Improve livestock
•    Improve infrastructure in rural towns
•    Encourage Agro-industry
•    Produce Hydro-power
•    Encourage Commercial Agriculture
Development Master P]an
Not all of the above objectives  carry  equal weight, The arresting of the depletion of soil fertility  and water resources  is  an absolute priority  in that if it is  not achieved then virtually all other objectives  are put into jeopardy. To increase production from subsistence crops  is also an objective of great importance as  it impacts  on the livelihood of the largest number o! people within the basin both with regard to real incomes  and also with regard to fw^ security
2.7.4 Screening of the Options
In order to achieve the above objectives there are a wide range of potential projects within the basin that could be targeted at one or several of the above. The purpose of screening thes« projects is to ensure that the Master Plan scenarios consist of the most viable projects in ck of the sectors, so that in total the Master Planning exercise will consist of a selection o L < very best projects in each sector
The projects within each sector will be ranked using multi-criteria analysis Criteria to used will include
• Cost effectiveness of proposed project (cost per kW of installed capacity, cost per ha etc)
• Accessibility, remoteness, cost of access and need for road building
•    Protection of the ecosystem (reforestation)
•    Suitability for settlement
•    Severity of Ecological impact
•    Sustainability
Spread of the benefits
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46
Chip*cr 3KiSOirRCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
VOLUME 11
The effect of such a scrwnutg will be that none of the scenanos  creamed will repreanr a
poor choice, but each will represent a choice based upon a at of constraints  The most
important constraint 'hat Government Sees  is  that of a budget constraint tn presenting the
scenarios  they  wtll be ranked tn ter™  of overall cost: it isclear that, in the choice of one over
Wof *•:°'h"s- *fe 3m°“"' of r«°ure« basin              crnicai
be mobilised for the development of the
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Chapter 21
resource base and development options
3. RESOURCE BASE
3.1 Introduction
During the inception phase of this Master Plan, data from previous studies were collects 
reviewed against standards of adequacy for Master Planning purposes The majorir^
information came from two earlier studies of the project basin the study by ARE(i"
GEOSERV in 1995 and that by Selkhozpromexport in 1990 During this interim phase
data were analysed to identify-, locate, and prioritise development options in the project are
This  chapter of the interim report describes  the resource base used to assess  develops opportunities  II discusses  the analyses  that were conducted and their relationship to 3 objectives  of the Master Plan The chapter contains  4 sections. 69 Geographical Infoman Systems  {GIS) utilisation. (2} water resources. (3) natural resources  and agriculture, and 1 human resources and infrastructure,
3.2 GIS Utilisation
Integration of information is a key component of the Baro-.Akobo River Basin Master Pit which uses information ranging from the social sciences to the design of dams • comprehensive geographic information system (GIS) is one of the tools used by the project t integrate different sources of data In so doing, GIS assists each section to get a understanding of its data and to betler transfer information between different sections. By t* mean of maps and tabulated data, the distribution and relative importance of features (soc|[' economic, natural resources, environmental, etc) can be better understood and communicated The following text describes the project's facilities and the state of ns dig|U database following six months of GIS operation
3.2.1 GIS Set-up
The GIS section comprises two computers, which are operated by two technicians professional under the supervision of the Consultant Specialist. One station is dedica digitising and object editing, the second station processes, analyses, and produces reports. Considering the complexity of the .Master Plan, the numerous demands section, and the limited time available, this is a minimal configuration it does not g>’v freedom needed to go as far as it would be possible
Data entry 
Digitising, the process of transforming analogue information (maps) into digital data. # using AutoCad R13 for Windows 3.1 on the first computer The station compn following equipment:
.
TAMS-ULG Biro-Akobo Rher Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
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urce base and development options
VOLUME n
*     Personal Computer 486/60ntfiz,
v Hard disk of 500MB,
,     15" diskette drive
« Super VGA monitor,
e  1 MB video card,
«    36"X48 ’ d igit is i ng tabl e,
Software
« MS-Windows 3,1.
*     MS-DOS 6 22, and
*     Aut oCad R13 for Wind ows.
This  computer has  strong limitations  of speed, video screen refresh and backup facilities  The original computer proposed for use with AutoCad was  a Pentium 90mhz  with 2MB of video memory  and a tape backup (as  in section 2 2), but this  turned out to be incompatible with the AutoCad hardware lock  (connecting on LPT1). This  is  an important constraint on the effectiveness of data entry and on the security of data storage
Processing and Analysis
Digitised data from the first computer are transferred by  diskette to the second computer (using the DXF format between AutoCad R13 and Arc/Info 3 4.2). This  station is  used for all GIS processing, from topology to analysis and map production It comprises
Hardware
*           Personal Computer Pentium 90mhr,
*           Hard disk of LOGO MB,
*          3,5* diskette drive,
*          17" Super VGA monitor,
*          2MB video card,
*           Internal tape Backup,
’          4 speed CD-ROM,
A4 size laser printer;
Software
MS-Windows 3.1,
MS-DOS 6.22,
" Arc/lnfo 3.4.2.
Arc View 2 0. and
MS-Excel 5.Q
Nation offers enough power and quality for all Master Plan GIS analyses
July 
one of the most time-consuming activities of the GIS section. Between May and than 100 m aps were produced fo r t he differe nt teams of the pr oj ect.
---
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Ako bo River Basin Integrated Devdopment Master Plan
49
Chapter^RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
3.2.2 Capacity Building
The training of one professional and two digitising technicians is an important part of
Specialist input This training is done in a production context, where the trainees have
real problems, ver, often with little time to execute the work Even if this can be more
to adjust to than more formal training, it offers many advantages After only six month,
operation, the GIS team can support most of the basic needs of the project members 
without the presence of the Specialist
The profile of the GIS team is
•     One Geographer,"Rural and Land Ecology Surveyor,
•     One Draughtsman, and
•     One Draughtswoman
The two digitising technicians  had little or no computer knowledge when the operations  stand and the professional counterpart had basic  knowledge in GIS However, because oftha background in cartography  and their interest in GIS, their achievements  have been remarkaKt This  efficiency  would probably  not have been reached today  if people with more compile knowledge but less understanding of spatial data had been required to be trained
3.2-3 The Database
Previous phases of the Baro-Akobo Project have produced geographical data in analogic ft digital format It was assumed that all the data would be introduced to the GIS as soon as th equipment was installed Also, some digital data were available from other projects,
access to information at the national level. The workload of this task was very rnuc underestimated in project planning because of the false assumption that the data were read' “ work with However, the status of the GIS database at this time in the project is more :r* acceptable as most of the relevant themes are available for analysis Data can be grouped mt four sources (1) the digital ARDCO-GEOSERV GIS, (2) the map collection from Sclkhozpromexport study; (3) the Woody Biomass Inventory and Strategic Planning P °J ‘ (WBISPP) GIS. and (4) TAMS-ULG data
rt
The ARDCO-GEOSERV digital database (upper basin)
With GIS programs available to interchange data between software, the import of this a should have been a relatively simple task. The file construction of that database has ,ntr^urJ !
.
many complexities and some errors, however, causing the transfer into clean and a
Arc/lnfo files to become a very tedious process When the joins between different map imperfect, each map has to be decomposed into at least 5 separate files Many of the tn*P c were modified from the WBISPP database were created from a wrong interpret^ otherwise very good documents Finally, some of the thematic maps were already Because of these constraints, only the most important maps are currently present in • format and can be used Others will be transferred when time allows
The following lists the maps that were transferred from that source:
•      The study area,
•      Soils,
•      Crop suitability (not appropriate), and
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Muter Plan
So
..
Chaptf r 3SOURCE base and development options
VOLUME II
Drainage (completed by TAMS-ULG),
j ome additional thematic maps will be transferred in the near future
. Geology,
» Mineralisation, and
•    Hydrogeology.
The Selkhoq>rcm£xport study (lower basin)
Map's at I 200 000 (four sheets) were digitised from this study:
•    Soil.
. Soil Suitability,
•    Land and Water Resources,
. Pasture.
•    Hydrogeological Map,
•    Previous and Latest Geological Studies,
•    Hydrological and Climatic Map,
•    Geomorphology,
•    Engineering Geological Map, and
•    Waler Depth and Chemical Composition.
The linework  digitising is  done with AutoCad R.I3 with UTM control points  The linework  is then transferred to Arcinfo for topology  and coding of each polygon An automatic  labelling is  done and a plci of the linework  with the label ID ls produced at 1 250 000 scale This printout is  used to list all the attribute values  for each polygon and to detect digitising errors When all polygons  are validated the values  are entered in the PAT file of Arc/Info either using MS-Excel or ArcView table facilities  This  is  a long and tedious  process, but one that has  the advantage of being very safe and also does not take much processing time
[he WBlSpp GIS
WBISPP was p  b biy the first important GIS tn Ethiopia with an extensive database on
ro   a
rniriy aspects of natural resources, socio-economic conditions, infrastructure, etc. To save time also to optimise the use of standard data at the national level, many thematic digital maps 
ere provided i0 the Baro-Akobo project A window of the BaroAkobo study area was from the following files
BlSPP original land cover,
°°dy biomass stocks,
p 0°°dy bl0rn^s yields,
SUpP°n caP*** model’
‘^ecology
la "d cover*,
lan d cover4and use,
Eleva,-
Si t,On model
S '°*n»d |,
£
of growing period*,
co.,,,.,
__________________ ——
ir v-Akobo River Basin Integrated Developmem Mauer Plan
Chapter JRESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
•     FAO/LUPRD soils*, and
•     FAO/LUPRD geomorphology*
* To be processed into Arc/Info files
The transfer to Arc/lnfo is a simple and reliable process and the WBISPP files are cl accurate Many of these documents are being integrated into the TAN1S-ULG analyses TAMS-ULG original data
Each section of TAMS-ULG has generated various data since the beginning of the
j
pfo en
They are either original data or were modified from the other sources listed above The data include
•      Wereda divisions (from 1 50 000 maps),
•      Towns location,
•      Administrative divisions history;
•      Population Projection,
•      Road database,
•      Watershed boundaries,
• 
Hydrometric database,
• 
Dam access roads.
• 
Livestock database,
•      Irrigation schemes,
•      Rainfall distribution, and
•      Temperatures distribution
The new interpretations include
•      Combined basins soils,
•      Combined basins land units,
■     Combined basins land capacity;
•      Slope derived from land capacity,
•      Erosion sensitivity correlated from land capacity and SCRC,
•      Rice suitability,
•      Non-rice crops suitability;
•      Farming systems.
•      Land cover,
■     Population support capacity model.
•      Woody biomass stocks,
•      Woody biomass yields,
•      Woody biomass balance,    and
•      National forests protected areas
All the above data will be used to define development options supported by the s expect that additional information will be added to the project’s G1S. It will nee updating by a competent team
dv
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
52
Chapif }gfSOiniCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS j j Water resources
jj/ General
VOLUME n
The purpose of the W ater Resources studies is to establish a reliable set of data from which to l5sess water resources of the Baro-Akobo basin A second aspect of the hydrology studies is to estimate the amplitude of the floods, so as to evaluate the potential consequences of flooding and to design protective measures for the existing and proposed infrastructure the towns and villages, and the agricultural land
The basic data used to assess surface water resources is the monthly runoff (river discharges) [n the Baro-.Akobo Rjver Basin many of the rainfall monthly time series are shorter than the observed flow sequences recorded by some hydrometric stations Furthermore, the rainfall network  does  not fully  cover the whole area Prior to evaluating the river discharges, therefore a review of the monthly precipitation was required, which constitutes the starting point of the climatology  and hydrology  studies  In addition, for the agricultural studies (irrigated or not), it was also be necessary to establish the amount of dependable precipitation dunng the critical growth period of the crops
The flood analysis has the objective of estimating flood magnitudes at locations along the nver The results of the analysis provide the parameters for which the hydraulic structure will be designed for example, the design capacity of the spillway of a large dam may be the P.MF‘. while for a smaller dam with limited potential risk of damage, only a 1,000-year return period would be considered Similarly flood protection works for an irrigation development might only be against a 20-year event Projects generally are evaluated individually, taking into account the risk and the potential loss of life, of income and of property
Tbe meteorological data are generally collected, processed and provided by the National Meteorological Service, the hydrometric data as well are collected, processed and provided
v the Hydrological Service Some additional data have been collected by other agencies, deluding the FAO’, the Ministry of Agriculture, the Institute of Agricultural Research, and
- Climatology (Annex 1A)
scutWllmae
lhe West African Monsoon- wann moist westerlies or sometimes
c Merlies from the Guinea and Congo Basin, passing over lowland areas impinges on systtfj, <^lca t0 ^e escarpments of Western Ethiopia (Refer the elevation map) The wind
« low tropospheric level (about 850 hPa) over the region dunng the rainy season
*
nIer tr
’ opical convergence zone (TTCZ), the Congo Air Boundary, and the West
^ 0nSO°n This results into orographic uplifting to produce rainfall This spatial
^Bhlajid                     wind produces a pronounced rainfall gradient between lowlands and level f  |? esides, the orographic lifting, there is also a dynamical Lifting at upper troposphenc 
the resin Ul
w hich plays a profound role in the extent and intensity of the rainfall over nf v S dy^rruc component is the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) The existence and
ft* s&on-, TEJ is very important in determining the spatial extent and amount of rainfall t h TEJ, the better the spatial distribution of the rainfall and the greater its intensity
c
—-----------------------
?A0 ” MaJurnuni flood
Agriculture Organization
_____ ____________________________ _______ _
^Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
Chapter 3
-RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
over   the   region   During   the   dry   period,   low   level   dry   and   warm   northeasterly   trad accompanied by southwesterly at upper tropospheric level prevail
e
The presence of lowland and highland areas  over the region exerts  a very  considerable inftUestc on climate According to the Koppen Climate Classification, the lowland areas  of the regIOn * classed as  Aw (tropical climate II) Tropical Climate II is  characterized by  elevation |CSS;r equal to 500 meters, mean temperature of the coldest month greater than 18' C , and mean ann^ rainfall between 680 mm and 2800 mm. Areas  in the study  region with steep slopes  are typify as  Am (Tropical Climate HI). Tropical climate HI is  tropical rainforest with an tievaticc between 500 meters  to 1000 meters  and with mean annual rainfall from 1200 to 2800 nun The temperature of the coldest month is  greater than 18°C The highlands  of the Baro-Akobo River Basin is  a Warm Climate n ( also called Cfb) Warm Climate 11 is  humid and is  conducive it abundant forest cover.
The eastern. northern and western portion of the Baro-Akobo River Basin is  optimal far lot; maturing crops  with a single growing period Tirmatil and the Upper Akobo can support double growing period with supplemental irrigation as  the Middle Alwero and the Middle Baro .Ara The Lower Akobo is  a double growing period. Whereas, Upper Gilo and Middle Gilo is  a single growing period and is  adequate for long and very  maturing crops  but less  suitable for annual crops (National Meteorological Services Agency Agrometeorological Bulletin),
The year-to-year rainfall variability of the region during the rainy season increases from
south to north The drought probability analysis of rainfall during the rainy season over the
region shows that southern portion of the region is less susceptible to drought than the central
and the northern part of the basin. Moreover, the central basin is less vulnerable to drought
than that of the northern portion of the study region
Database
The   meteorological   data   used   in   describing   the   climate   of   the   Baro-Akobo   River   Basin monthly   rainfall,   temperature,   relative   humid.ty,   wind   speed,   sunshine   and   evaporation   The# meteorological   elements   are   obtained   from   the   National   Meteorological   Services   Agency   All the  Data  Sets  are  presented  in  the Annexes of the Annex 1A (Annex 1 A-l for the Rainfall Data Annex   1A-4   for   the   Minimum   Temperature,   Annex   1A-5   for   the   Maximum   Temperature Annex   1A-6   for   the   Wind   Speed,   .Annex   1A-7   for   the   Sunshine   and   Annex   1A-8   for   tl* Evaporation)
The  rainfall  data  used  in  this  study  covers  the  period  from  1952  to  1992  over  42  stations their locations are given in the mean annual rainfall diagram
The monthly temperature data employed in this study entail the minimum, maximum , average temperature The number of temperature stations over the Basin is 20 The mo minimum temperature data cover the period from 1952 to 1988
The number of the meteorological stations with relative humidity data available over & regions is only 6 Generally, for the synoptic and indicative stations, relative humidity normally available at 0600, 0900. 1200, 1500 and 1800 local lime Over the Baro- Akc* Basin, only one station (Nedjo) out of the six has relative humidity data at synoptic 0° other stations have relative humidity at 1200 local time
heRESOURCE base and development options
VOLUME II
pie monthly relative humidity data cover the period front 1975 to 1988 Within the period there jre a number of missing data and gaps in the monthly relative humidity time series
The available meteorological stations with monthly wind speed data at 10 meters herght over aiea of study are only 8 during the period from 1976 to 1995
p,e sunshine data used in this study covers the period from 1975 to 1988 over 7 stations spread over the Basin
The Evaporation Network data used in this study over 21 stations spread over the Basin
Patching Model
The Patching Model in this study is used to estimate the meteorological and hydrological data gaps. The Patching Model Concept was  developed by  Professor Pegram (1985) of the University of Natal, Republic of South Africa. The Patching Model is used to infill the missing dua through estimation using muhiple linear regression techniques
To infill the missing data for rainfall, temperature, relative humidity and sunshine, the Patching Model along with EM algorithm is run for each meteorological element making use of the surrounding stations (The idea of the EM algorithm is to recursively substitute regressed data for that which is missing and then re-estimate the regression)
Table 3 1 presents the effect of infilling missing meteorological data using the Patch .Model Note that in this table the percentage of available monthly data (Gaps %. column (4)) are taken with respect to the total number of number of stations, times the complete period of the data under investigation This percentage of the data gaps is consequently very low, as the result only interpolation has  been applied (no extrapolation), so the time series  of the climate data considered have not the same length for all the stations
Table 3.1 Summary of Available Monthly Climate Data
So fcatiooj
Climate
Element
Period of Observations
Gaps (%)
Available Data
(AD)           Inrilled Dita
(ID)         Total AJ3+H)
J2
20 ’
7^--------
H-ainfall
1952-1992
-1—i—
38              7.760    (44%)                9.952    (56%)         17.712
Jimperature          1952-1988
35              3.090
(70%)
1.302
(30%)          4,392
Humidity
1952-1986
34j
993 1
1 (81%)”
231    (19%)            U24 ———— -—■
Wind
1976-1995                  36
69)    (79%)
185
876
junshine Sample of lhe
1975-1988                  42
498j  (65%)
265    (35%)             763
of output of the pfflch Modc| js presented in the Hydrology
Th* k?' '^nncx 1B-2 for the grouping of the hydrometric stations 1,8 and 6.
Monthly Observed and Infilled Rainfall Data per Station is presented in Annex 1A-1 ^Monthly Observed and Infilled Rainfall Data per Year is presented in Annex 1A-2
The e^1CS
of the .Annual Precipitation is presented in Annex IA-3.
The -v Observed and Infilled Minimum Temperature Data is  Present^"1 , A s T^y  Observed and Infilled Maximum Temperature Data is  presented m.Annex  1A-5 Hie M Observed and Infilled Wind Speed Dau is presented in Annex IA
Mon S' Observed  and Infilled Sunshine Data is presented in Annex 1 A-
n ’bly Observed and Infilled Evaporation Data is presented in -Annex
Chapter 3
llGB  r
'    * ^Akobo River Basin Inlegraied DewiopmeDt Mailer Plan
55RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
v olu M£
The climate of the River Basin, Average Monthly Climate Data over the River Basin
The mean annual rainfall distribution of the region shows considerable spatial variation dueir,
the complicated nature of the orography (refer to the regional elevation map) Over
areas the mean annual rainfall is as low as 600 mm. over the highlands it reaches as high as 
mm
The   rainy   period   is   from   May   to   October   Maximum   rainfall   over   the   southern   portion   of Baro-Akobo  River  Basin  reaches  as  high  as  300  mm  in  July  and  over  northern  portion  of region it is as high as 250 mm also in July In the north the rainfall exceeds 200 mm in June and July.   A   more   detailed   mathematical   analysis   of   the   rainfall   distribution   (see   Annex   1A| delineates   the   River   Basin   into   two   ramfall   regimes   The   Southern   Regime   is   a   well-defined single  peak  with  its  rainy  period  from  May  to  September  (the  ratio  of  mean  monthly  rainfall  k mean  annual  rainfall  exceeds  10%),  and  Northern  Regime  has  a  broader  pattern  without  a  singjt peak
The temporal pattern of average monthly  rainfall over the Baro-Akobo River Basin is  depicted in Figure 3 I. This  temporal rainfall pattern has  a single peak  with a maximum value (275 mm) in July  Over the basin, average rainfall greater than 100 mm occurs  from May  to October (six months  of rainy  period). Months  with average rainfall greater than 200 mm are June, July August and September On the average. January. February, November and December are ihedn months over the Baro-Akobo River Basin
Distribution of the Monthly Rainfall
Figure 3-1 Avenge Monthly Rainfall Pattern over the River Basin
The  mean  maximum  temperatures  greater  than  30°  C  occur  from  February  to  April and  July  have  minimum  temperature  values  less  than  25e   C  The  pattern  of  the  mean temperature assumes a sinusoidal profile
while
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Bairin Lntegmtrd Development Master Plan
56
CWter JSOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
VOLUME II
n monthly minimum temperarure partem shows a maximum temperature value m April Th* —in,mum temperature value in December This mean minimum temperature curve
3 eS 3 skewed profile and mean minimum temperature greater than 15.5’C concentrated nuarv to May From June to December, the mean minimum temperature values range
wi14t014 c
fat"Ja '
ljf
or
vera£e   monthly   relative   humidity   for   12   00   local   lime   is   spatially   averaged   from   six ^ eons     for   the   whole   Basin   and   temporally   from   1975   to   1988   (14   years)   The   number   of ^tioos  taken  into  account  to  analyse  the  average  humidity  at  12  00  local  time  is  very  few  to
esent  (very  low’  sampling)  the  average  humidity’  climate  over  the  Basin  in  question  On  the ^rage   the   waxitnum   relative   humidity   (%)   al   12.00   local   time   occurs   in   July  and  September whilethe  minimum  value  occurs  in  February.  More  than  8  %  relative  humidity  at  12  00  local ume  occur*  in  July.  August  and  September  Furthermore,  the  average  monthly  relative  humidity is  very  low  This  may  be  due  to  the  small  number  stations  and  the  stations  elevation  All  but  one station has elevation less than 2000 meters
The profile of the wind speed decreases  almost monotonical from January  to October then increases  gradually  from November to December The maximum wind speed is  around 3 m/s  in February  The minimum of the average monthly  wind speed occurs  in October and has  a wind speed of around 1.8 m/s.
The temporal partem of the average monthly  sunshine hours  is  the mirror images  of average monthly  rainfall and average monthly  humidity  distribution discussed above The maximum average monthly  sunshine (around 8 hours) occurs  from November to February  and the minimum from June to September (slightly above 4 hours).
The temporal pattern of the average monthly  evaporation is  highly  correlated with the monthly mean maximum temperature distribution discussed above The maximum average monthly ^iporation occurs from February to May and the minimum from June to September
.Senes of Average Annual Meteorological Elements
order  to  examine  the  year-to-year  variation  and  trends  of  average  annual  rainfall  over  the the   kP'ver     basin,   a   time   series   plot   of   average   annual   rainfall   from   1952   to   1992   over from   1S    depicted   in   Figure   3.2.   This   graph   shows   very   vividly   a   decreasing   rainfall   trend fainty.   1984.   During   this   period   the   rainfall   reduced   by   about   400   mm.   In   the   annual
was I, T S’3165, 1984 and 1986 are t^"es years DunnS these Ycars’
inn^i fS’ 78 0/o of the 1952 (the wettest year). After these two drought years, the average
amount
patlcm s^ows an increasing trend and in 1992 the rainfall value reaches to the
Bjrn’Ak*>bo Rjver iDtt.griicd Development Master Plan
Chapter 3RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
Distribution of the Yearly Rainfall
Year
Figure 3.2 Time Series of Spatial Average Annual Rainfall over the River Basin
The  temperature  tune  series  covers  from  1952  to  1988  The  average  annual  mimnuira temperature  shows  cold  and  warm  periods  In  the  1950’s,  the  average  annual  mimmurr. temperature  is  below  13°  C  It  is  important  to  note  that  only  3  stations  were  involved  o producing the average annual minimum temperature from 1952 to 1961 over the whole basic This low number of stations may bias the interpretation of cold years in 1950s over the who.t catchment On the other hand, the 1960’s, the second half of 1970’s and 1980’s are warmed periods  of  the  Baro-Akobo  River  basin  However,  the  average  annual  maximum  tempera^' time series shows two different episodes The first part is a rather stable temperature pro ' (from 1962 to 1972) while the second component is a warming trend from 1973 to 1988 ( years of warming period)
The year-to-year variability of average annual relative humidity at 1200 local time from 1986 is depicted in Figure 9, Annex 1A Generally, the average annual relative hu"" variability was very high from 1952 to 1972 The average annual relative humidity is stable from 1973 to 1984 In 1954, the lowest average annua) relative humidity is recor the Baro-Akobo River basin while the highest relative humidity was recorded in 1965 the high variability period, most of years have low relative humidity values
The temporal annual evolution of average annual wind speed (m/s) at 10 meter height a over seven stations from 1976 to 1995 is portrayed in Figure 13, Annex 1 A. Ths ttn^
curve has three types of pattern a stable, a decreasing and an increasing trends penod occurs from 1976 to 1978 with almost a constant wind speed (around °.^ \
n
cUfrcd
decreasing trend happened from 1979 to 1989 (for 11 year), then the increasing penod from 1990 to 1993. From 1994 to 1995, it shows gradually decreasing The rnaxirn^c speed occurs in 1993 ( 4 m/s) Whereas, the average annual sunshine (hours)
seven stations) time series shows low variability from 1975 to 1983 and a high varia i 1 1984 to 1988 (Figure 14, Annex 1 A)
frotn
TAMS-ULG Ban>Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Mailer Plan
ChaplerJ
58ESOUR61 paSZ and DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
VOLUME n
Orographic effect
The regression analy sis of the Mean .Annual Precivitati
1A The correlation analysis  shows  that more than 52? theelevi«»>n is  givCT in Ajumx IS expired by the orogograhic  effect The implied of?aV^e infall variance average annual rainfall is  that any  spatial interpolation nf ,nfluence of orography  on the
Akobo River basin Should be done in conjmraj ™,h
*« lie Bern,
the    orographic    effects    on    mean    annua!    ramfali    k    ,n\i    ?hy    of    the    region    Consider.™ 
onfall isohyetal map of the Baro-Akobo
tainne. wind speed and ~^ne wkh
well as the evapomlran show an olographic effect In contras,
the average annual wind speed, sunshine hours and relative hi.’midrh. “ Mean Annual Precipitation (MAP)
P^^oTof
“ 1200
“
, f rognPh-v on ' 15 nor 35 cear 33 ^al of the
J.3.2 Hydrology (Annex IB)
River system
The major rivers  within Lhe Baro-.Akobo basin are the Baro and its  tributaries. (Birbir, Geba. Sor), the Alwero, the Gilo with its  tributaries  (Gecheb, Bitun, Beg) and the Akobo with its tributary  Kashu. The general direction of the rivers  is  from lhe east to the west The rivers are rise in the highlands  (2000-3 500m) situated in the east of the area and fall to the Gambela plain (500m) in the west All the major rivers  are gauged except the Akobo flowing in the border with Sudan and all its tributaries
The  mean  annual  runoff  of  the  basin,  which  has  a  total  area  of  75,910  km  ,  is  estimated  to  be 19 billion m*.
Hydrometric network 
,.
Unfortunately  the data collection is  not very  consistent Whilst the flow at Gambela is available from 1906. all others  stations  have been recorded relatively  recently  It seems  that «me stations  have been eliminated from the analysis  because of short period of records These stations are Ouwa (4), Alwero Dam (7) and Baro at Kella (11)
hydrometric network used for the flow inventory is presented below Table 3 2
^^Akobo River Basin Integrated DevrJopmcDt Master Plan
59
_____ ___________________ ----------------------------
Chapter 3T►
RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
Table 3.2 Hydro met ric Network
Number
Station
—             r-
,
Latitude      Longitude      Elevation
(mas!)
------ ■ —            f -   -     '
Catchment
ar             1
« (km )
1                   Ketto near Chanka
35 02                    8 46                  1350
2
Bare at Gambella                              34 34                    8 14                     450
3                   Gumero near Gore                            35 29                    8 09                  1750
4
—_ _ _£yvo 23461?
106
Ouwa near Gul iso                            35 32
9 09
1500
288
5
Alwero at Abobo
34 33
7 51
450                  2800
6
Uka at Uka
35 21                    8 10
1650                     53
7
AJwero near Dam Site
34 40                    7 45                     500                  1043
8
Metti near Dembidolo
34 50                   8 35
1550
144
9
Sor at Menu
35 36                   8 18
1700
1622
10                Baro at I tang
34 16                    8 11
425                24636
11                 Bare near B Kella                             34 25                    8 14                   425                   493 7l
12                Kuni near Chanka
35 05                    8 sTl                 1500 1                   88
13                Gilo near Pugnido
34 15                    7 37 i                 450 |              101371
14
Gecheb near M Tefen
35 33                    7 00                 1300 1                   79
15                Bitun Wuha near Tepi
35 28                    7 12                 1150                     220
16                Beg Wuha near Tepi
35 26
7 12
1150                     125
17                Birbir near Yubdo
35 28
8 57
1500 [                1563 |
' S nOt “nt,nuous “d many data gaps exist. The number of montW?
.        . . o* per year during the period of observation 1967-1993 is 1930 The leal
avXhT£^%Penr°d 51,011111 hHVC been 4'212’ (13 SIatior,s Per 27 year P*r 12 months)
niimhAr f ‘ rnZL ^*
e
r^TnrTf * “*
rC rcPrcsenls only 54% of the full potential total data Consequently the (46%)' c*™01 ** eslimated from the 54% existing data It is
reason for that n is proposed to consider only to infilled the data gaps of the penod of record
of each of the stations With this condition the number of infilled data was only 542 and the
o number of continuous data, observed and infilled was 2,472 Thus the observed
represents 78 of the total data and only 22% of the data had to be estimated
inconvenient of this approach is that the length of record varies for the different static 
making the process of generations extended monthly flow sequences more complicated
The proposed methodology for the data processing is:
1    Infill   the   data   gaps   by   linear   regression   and   Patch   Programs   from   the   neighbouri^ stations.
2    Correlation   between   monthly   flows   at   the   gauging   stations   and   monthly   rainfall   static are analysed to select a set of representative rainfall for each catch menl.
3.   A Stochastic Desegregated Model is used to generate the long term monthly fl°w se1^
for each gauging stations This stochastic model provides some test of acceptance o *
results When the performance was not suitable, the long term time series of the
rainfall and. or hydrometric station expressed in percentage was used as a contro r
for the stochastic model
Cbsf’erJ TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
60
____________RCE BASE and development options
volume n
sUfninafy lhc proposed methodology for the data               processing is
■  infill  the  data  gaps  by  linear  regression  and  Patch  Programs  (presented  previously)  from the neighbouring stations
•,   Correlation   between   monthly   flows   at   the   gauging   stations   and   monthly   rainfall   stations will be analyzed to select a set of representative rainfall for each catchments
3   A   Stochastic   Disaggregated   Model   will   be   used   to   generate   the   long-term   monthly   flow series  for  each  gauging  station  This  stochastic  model  provides  some  test  of  acceptance  of the  results  In  the  case  of  the  performance  is  not  suitable,  the  long  term  time  series  of  the Gambela   rainfall   and/or   hydrometric   station   expressed   in   percentage   will   be   used   as   a control record for the stochastic model
Flow Sequences at the Hydrometric Station
The  output  of  the  Stochastic  Model  for  the  extension  of  the  monthly  flows  is  presented  in Appendix 8 of Annex IB for alt the Hydrometric Stations.
The   following   table   (Table   3   3)   presents   the   Mean   .Annual   Runoff.   MAR   functions   of   the catchment area and the elevation
A  comparison  of  MAR  with  the  previous  studies  shows  very’  clearly  that  the  Russian  Study tends   to   overestimate   MAR   whereas   the   ARDCO-GEOSERV   underestimates   MAR   This   is mainly   due   to   the   fact   that   the   Russian   based   their   methodology   on   an   empirical   formula assuming  that  the  specific  discharge  is  linear  with  the  mean  elevation  of  the  catchment  at  the power of I 75. Indeed no such correlation (see .Annex IB) seems to be applicable
Table 3.3 Comparison of the Monthly Average Runoff (MAR)
Elevation
(m)
Catchment
Area (km )
Mean Annual Runoff (MAR)
1
(MCM)
Specific
Discharge
Russian
106.0
ARDCO- GEOSERV^
____ 5127 ___ [16403
51.18
TAMS .
Kerio
1350 0
4500
L75O.O
1006 0 23461 0
616.0 12685.0
(runa)
579 95
5
jBaro
Gymero
50947
-
685 85
833 8
2800.0
630.0
519 4
554 2
197 93
650 0
53.0
38 7
ILL
78.8
700 00
J55OO
J7000
42j5jo
144 0
98 0
1648.0
246360
1699 4
co A
_547.22
1007.04
H_983U
496 47
.4500 1300 0
11500 11500 1500 0
0
2826.7
297.33
79.0            -
60.0
759.49
—
220.0
33 0
150 00
920.1
588.68
*.
L          r; - ■---——_______ ______ ___- —-
Ak obo Rjver Basin lnteKrale(j Development Master Plan
Chapter 3resource base and development options
The graph shows very clearly the log log relationship between the Mean Annual Ru the catchment area Only the Station Bitun (15) which has previously been decl^ doubtful, is an outlier. This graph can be interpreted as indicating the general goal J?14 the flow sequences resulting from the infilling and extension of records Indeed the 1 the coefficient of correlation is 9547, including Bitun (15) as an outlier.(See Figure 3
M.A.R, Function of the C atchm ent A re a
Fig 33 Scattered Log MAR versus Log Catchment Area
Flow Sequences al the Dam Sites
The Dam sites are represented schematically in the Figure 3 4
The methodology proposed for transferring the flow sequences from the hydrometric stations to the dam sites considers a weighting factor based on the ratio of catchment areas corresponding rainfalls The following table (Table 3 4) presents a summary of tl*
simulation of the Annex 1B-9 of the Annex 1B for all the dam sites
As already expressed for the gauging stations, the Mean Annual Runoff estimated by Russian study tends to be overestimated, whereas the MAR estimated by ARfH ■ GEOSERV is generally underestimated
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Haun Inicgrated Development Muter Plan
62
Chapin3BASE anb development options
VOLUME II
Table 3*4             Comparison with Previous Studies of (he Mean Annual Runoff
>umber
LName
EKevation
VRL Im)
-[—
Catch men I Rainfall
Are* (km)       (mm)
RUSSIAN ARDCO TAMS TAMS
Runoff          Runoff         RunofT        Runoff
fnLWi)          (mJA)          (m3/s)          (MCM)
"i
liang
~431 6               24,420.0        1,410.0            4130                                     3899           12,296 0
L
- ___
feonga
iGambeU              548 0          ' 22.740 0        1,660.0            3900                                    371.6          11,718 4
573.6            22.290.0        1.680.D           386.0
368.6          11.625 1
~4
_r
TAMS
^Abobo
“V-’ Chini
760.0            20,970 0        1.710.0            3760                                    353.0           11,131 9
4 54 5 2,790.0 L270.0 20.0
517,0 739,0 1,480.0 11.7
17.7             556 9
5.5
—i
172 5
Mey
5049              353 0            1,550.0              1.2
__________
2.7               86.3
8        IhJiTibang             513 5            1,100.0          1.410.0              5.8
73              244 6
" 9          CiikH
606 8
7.573.0          1,360 0            115.0
74 1            2.337 6
io        GUc-2
474.0            9.640 0          1,330.0            126 0                                    92 3            2.910.0
’ ll           Gi 1 e- 3
460 0      r 9,820.0             1,305.0            125 0                                     92.2            2.908 6
12 Birbir
1,4300          3 579.0          1.680 0                                    48 0                                1,824.7
r
579
“ 13 |Geba (R)
1,113.0          6 222.0          1,670 o             [320
r
143.2           4.515 1
14 Geba
2.170.0            1.086.0          2.320 0                                    32.0
35.9            1.132.4
is me                                1.848 5            367.0            2.060.0                                     7.1                 7.4              234.7      !
16 E5or                      1,538.0          1,777,0          2.120 0             53 5,              53 5               53.7            1.693 2
1? Gumero
+43.0            1,860 0
7.7                 8.7              274 7       |
18 Baro
1,720.0          1.620,0
2.160.0
+3.0               49 9             1.572.7
1     19       1
3eko                 1,128.0 j            J .815.0 '
1,920.0                                    34 5              21.2            669.2
30 i
Cashu
1,5655              449,0            1,9100
—                   7.9                11.7             368 9
-l         Sakia
----------- r
378.0            1.590.0
5.9              1866
22 Binbii(R)'
1.53 0.0             6.840.0 1     1,610 0             1100
106 0           3,342 0
—-—------- ------ -- ----------- --------- —_____ ________
AJ<°bo River Basin Integrated Develop Dent Master Plan
63
Chapter 3RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
Figure 3-4 Existing and Potential Dam Sites
0 Existing Dam
4 Potential Dan
• Hydrometric Station —River
METH
Birbtr-A
birbir
BIRBER
Sohr
Girda
GuMERO
l*+4 ♦ ♦
Ilanf; Bcnga Tams
BARO
♦
11
FARO
GEN JI
Chiru
♦
SOBAT ALWERO
5
T
4-
Ababv
CHDtU
A fey
_____ alwerO
BEG wuha
btt^’
GILO
Gilo-2
Cilo-J
KA5tfL'
KILD        |
_ ______
AKOBO
DLMA
akobo                    ------- ----
PIBOk
TAMS-lBLG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated I^elopmenf Master Plao
Ch>Prer'base and development options
R tSOl*Ct
? ^Studies (Anrt^lQ
Flooding situation
VOLUME n
,|nE
0  15
 in the 't>w^ P ^
r
basin, the Gambela plain occurs every year. The Russian
StiX    ,dentlf'ed      thC      folloW'n8      reasons      for      the       flying    problems    in    the    Gambela    Plain    area, to be as follows
flood inc resulting from overflow of river bank; and,
flooding resulting from rainfall and poor drainage
The flooding resulting from the river overflow is  staled as  the consequences  of two possible phenomena a river bankfull capacity  too small and the backwater effect from the Pibor River md the Sobai River
rhe extent of flooding in the Gambela Plain varies  from year to year For each flooding situation,  the Russian Study  has  estimated the probability  for the land to be flooded. The total area of the lower basin subject to repeated flooding is  9720 km* The Russian Study  has 
estimated the percentage of land flooded to be as follows
Recurrence
Intervals
Flooded Area
Resulting from
River
Flooded Area
Resulting from
Rainfall
Total Flooded Ares
______________________________________________
2-year
8%
20%
28%
10-vear
37%
—
58%                                      95%
Stjcar
100%
100%
Depending  on  the  magnitude  of  the  floods,  the  land  remains  inundated  for  between  2  and  4 ^rrths at a time
Criteria
C °nSe?Uence    of    the    Aguiar   flooding   of   the   plain,   no   major   development   has   taken   place   in Dirtih1?              *3as'n’ which is mainly used as pastures for cattle The towns of ltang and
* 0-yl^
s
Several     villages   were   severely   affected   by   a   flood   estimated   to   be   the   equivalent   of
^tEtt^eCOr'C>rnic  vaJue 321(1 social benefits  of preventing flooding remain to be balanced
^■ns  and v1|,SS'^e neSat've impacts  to the environment, it should be noted that only  rarely 
Study   fo    f?'
r lambda and Rang. P^lential i
L           P1-0^^   against   the   100-year   flood   as   has   been   proposed   in   the   Russian
a  Bes
P oject
r
Sj     ttl      J’eveloPment    of    the    lower    Baro-Akobo    basin    essentially    consists    of    irrigation
‘^ding i22c<JSS'an ^hidy  proposed a long-term plan for developing 335,000 hectares, ^^ibilit^ h hectares  in what is  called "inundahle temtones" For the purpose of the a^^ar evertt l^e flood protection schemes  for irrigation projects  will be designed for the 1^8 from rhheSe Schernes will incorporate dikes  and other structures  to protect against , Particular! * nvers' 33 well as  canals  and pumping stations  to insure good drainage ot the r tected acain« T ”'nundable territories" Similarly, it is  expected that villages  will also be
^ nstthe20-year flood
________________________ _______ ______
River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
Chapter 3RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
For the town of Gambela. the criteria could possibly be increased to the 5O-ycar flood
Th sprotection, however, will have to be considered in the general context of the lo^ *
monosed development, and the selected flood protection scheme For example, if the
?or Smbela comists of dikes, it is likely that the incremental protection will be rel^
nLensive The Russian Study has indicated that the difference in water level between the r>
veaTand 100-year floods is only in the order of 20 to 30 centimetres
Generally  flooding does  not appear to be a problem tn the upper basin, however, there are an- of relatively  flat land where irrigation projects  have been proposed In those areas, the potent for flooding probably  exists  For the purpose of the prefeasibility, the irrigated perimeters  will-, protected against the 20-year flood event
Other water resources  projects  are proposed at other locations  in the Baro-Akobo base, including dams  and hydroelectric  projects, which should be designed to accommodate floodi For the purpose of the prefeasibility  study, large dams  will be provided with spillway  capable^ passing the PMF (or the 10,000-year flood) after routing through the reservoir For smiLr dams, in remote area, it is  likely  that the 1,000-year flood will be selected The choice of th appropriate flood event will be made on a case by case basis
Flood Protection Concepts
For the lower Baro-Akobo basin and to some extent for any irrigation project locate:
downstream of a storage dam, there will be two possible protection schemes The first one is to
protect the land by providing dikes built to a level higher than the water level in river for the I1
year flood event with appropriate freeboard, and, if necessary', pumping stalions for drainage
purpose For the smaller catchment areas, where high water in the river are expected to be fa
only for short duration, the provision of flap valves at the drain exit might be sufficient Th
second concept to be considered when the area to be protected is downstream of a reservoir, is te
store the incoming 20-year flood incoming volume in the reservoir and to release it at a rale
greater than the river bank full capacity
ese  two  alternatives  will  be  compared  on  an  economic  basis  For  the  first  alternative  the  cos cou  inc  ude  the  dikes,  and  pumping  stations  and  pumping  equipment  to  which  the  discount cost  o  operation  and  maintenance  will  be  added  For  the  second  alternative,  the  cost  could  be the  incremental  cost  of  building  the  dam  and  appurtenant  works  for  a  higher  reservoir  level  thin without the storage for flood control
can
dCTed by lhe Russ,an Stud? for
TAMS dam, the flood control storage
X    *    0Ut       °f      thc       ^^ation    pool    for    power    and    energy    generation,    by    the    introduce
bJnXT
nJc cun,es. 111656
In lowering the reservoir level at tj‘
nlsnnM °thLC 563500 In this ca5e- the dam does 0°’ '“od to be higher than origin*11*
5°"’ ? Control); however- ,hat solution re5ults in a loss of firm en^
generation and a reduction in dependable capacity These losses need to be quantified
2m^ohtf°r,^VUrP°Se °^tbe P  ^
re
casibility for the upper basin projects, only the increase
rnn,? ? be considered for storage of the flood inflow This solution will be dir^lv
alt
d,ke so,utlon For lareer projects in the lower basin both flood sto^
alternatives will have to be evaluated
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Mister Plan
66base and development options
VOLUME U
; j / Ground Hater (Annex /[))
General
Ground surface elevation, climate and surface wat-r a-
Bi 0
,
-Akobo ton Combined they define the vano^'T
Cl<w, V
-  ™OTel«ed in the
region. Stream flow from high rainfall in the east^h l, d 0 Oglc fealu^ in the „rni
in of the basin
The mw land types from east to west across
* “«"> ^»d. moves weytwtmd.X’K
,
a high mountainous zone,
,
a high plateau sector;
»
a strip of lowland ranges;
.
and westernmost, a lowland area
The surface and near surface geolog)’ of the high mountainous zone is formed by weathered
Ternary basalt capped in places by resistant Quaternary volcanic rocks Surface elevations of
these high lying igneous rocks range from 2.400 to 3,300 meters above sea level (masl)
West of the high mountainous  area lies  a high plateau geomorphic  sector which is  underlain by  and comprises  basalts  and grantitics, the surfaces  of which range from about elevation 1,300 to 2,400 masl
Next    in   westward    succession    are    the    crystalline    basement   complex   rocks    that   form    the Masengo Ranges and vary in elevation from about 800 to l,400masl
The MftHi geomorphic zone in .he project B «™ ed by the•
pl
sloping surface of the Gambela Plain This plain is formed an on er
old undifferentiated Pho-Quaternary rocks that grade westward from about 495 masl ar Gambela to 400 masl at the Ethiopia’Sudan border
Rocks exposed and underlying the project area north, east and south of
W in age from Precambrian through to Pliocene. Such
consolidated metamorphic and igneous types and are general y re en °mplcx in this report The present land surface and rock exposures o
are pr^omtn^y ^of Basemen!
Comply   have   developed   as   a   result   of   regional   uplift   This   structural   act   W   int   mmjus extensive fractunng, fissunng and crushing in the basement rocks
Ga*1^ matwials of various types, sources and depositional envtronm th r6'4 p’a’n unconsolidated rock material is Quaternary in
£ ^bela Alluvium, The Gambeia Alluvium in Ethiopia has
refc|TC<j t0 as
throuah time on
*   ^em   limb   of   the   Sudan   syncline,   which   has   continued   to   downwarp   and   backfill Pliocene trme
Central Hydrogeological Conditions
basm has two baste type* £ *ones in the Basement Complex 
^viutn, an unconsolidated sedimentary P
aquifer One ss oth ei m
medium
associated with fracture and the Pliocene to Quaternary
ChiptcrJ
lr o-Aknbo River Basin Integrated DoeJopment Master PlanRESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
Basement Complex aquifer(s) characteristics vary with the degree of fracturi continuity that exists in otherwise impermeable bodies of metamorphic and/or and Rode type and mode of emplacement usually have little relationship to Basem ^ permeability 
Alluvium forming and underlying the Gambela Plain can be divided into three aquifer systems as follows.
8  0115
ern
^ entri
1 The Holocene Alluvial Deposits Aquifer, comprised of Holocene longshore bars 
deltaic sediments
2. The Lacu-Alluvial Aquifer, which is a Pleistocene-Holocene, lacustrine and alkvji
deposit
3 The Regional Aquifer, which includes the Pliocene Alwero Formation
The Holocene alluvial Deposits Aquifer and the Lacu-Alluvial Aquifer are phreai.:
(unconfirmed) aquifers, while the Regional Aquifer is considered to be at least locaL.1
confined
Aquifer Production Characteristics
Only  a small amount of information is  available concerning the production characteristics  c the Basement Complex  aquifer in the project area The information that has  been collect from bored wells  and springs  indicated production rates  to be generally  less  than 1,0 litres  per second (Vs) with a highest recorded rate of IS 1/s  The frequency  of low production rate could be attributable to the wells  and springs  in the aquifer being equipped with unde' capacity  pumping units  rather than a naturally  low production aquifer No test data are kno« to exist for the Basement Complex Aquifer
The Holocene alluvial deposits  Aquifer and the Lacu-Alluvial Aquifer are very  similar ■ composition where they  occur in the Gambela Plain. The alluvium constituting these aq'Jilc-'S is usually fine sand to silt
Water  ytelds  form  wells  constructed  in  these  aquifers  range  form  about  0  01  Us  to  I  0  Vs  w«>
,hl
a
U *   I   pe7neab,l,tl«   from     0/1   to   2.0   meters   per   day   (m/day).   Static   water   levels   of   wells   in
(bgs) qUlfCrS usually vary ftom
surface to about 7,0 meters below ground surf^
The so-called Regional Aquifer (Pho-Quaternary in age) underlies the Lacu-Alluvial Aqu and is composed of interbedded sand, silt and clay. It is thought, but not yet proven, th® aquifer starts at the Blubabor Plain, then continues westward beneath the Gambela and beyond the Ethiopia-Sudan border This aquifer is comprised to a large extent Pliocene Alwero Formation Aquifer transitivity has been tested m the Upper • Formation to range to 120 mVday, while production rates have been recorded to - Static water levels in this Regional Aquifer have been measured to be from about meters bgs
TAMS-ULG Biro-Akobo River Buin Integrated Development Master Plan
Ch«Ptrr 3
63BASE and development options
VOLUME II
and Movement of Groundwater
Basin
o L^i and Discharge of Aquifers
RtCM&
quuej j^h-pA "/fc,,rc a f**sult of percolation of direct rainfall, infiltration through
U ______ _____ ^.rc ac a r/><
__r *■< ■i-Pir’A ctrpamc and lotpraI1 rimirn-trrdidiflHHt ^faces and well production from aquifers underlying the basin
^.4“      __ j
^houdi a detailed quantitative analysis  of recharge and discharge of groundwater are not frown to have been conducted, a qualitative overview of basin hydrogeology  indicates  that noientislly  available recharge water significantly  exceeds  seasonal basin aquifers  Such ^nations  of water levels  are usually  less  than 5 0 meters, but fluctuations  of 13 meters  have been measured (at Russian borehole 102) Calculations  made by  the Russians  in 1990
indicate   the   potential   amount   of   basin   recharge   water   available   to   be   of   the   order   of   128
MCM per year
Barer (hidfry
During the course of the 1990 Russian Study  and the ADCO-GEOSERV project in 1995, urnpies  of water from rivers, springs, wells  and test bore holes  were collected and analysed for inorganic  chemical content, A total of 399 samples  were analysed during the two studies Sample analyses  made of Gambela Plain waters  were found to range in Total Dissolved Solids  (IDS) from 72 to 955 milligrams  per litre (mg/1) Most tested waler was  found to be chemically  suitable for human drinking water. With the exception of a few samples  of highly mineralised spring waters, which ranged to 2,307 mg/l TDS, all waters  in the central and c -siern sectors of the Baro-Akobo basin were tested to be potable
L"__________ rr_____ *____  _____ i
20 metcf0^65 ^osl such wells are dug by hand and seldom reach depths of greater than
f     pOpulat'on >s insignificant compared to the total water resources available thertfo °
Cannot be accurately calculated An estimate of the total use of surface waler,
total r«< Spnn® ’
s
et c • is only I 8 to 2.5 million cubic meters per year, a tiny fraction of
res °urces available
^ ,eXz7°Ir °pa'ation 1 E)
S'hciMplemeraiiOri        StUdics         performed      were      aimed      at      determining      the      benefits      derived p                  of ^Ution of ^servoirs in the Baro-Akobo basin. These reservoirs are built for
s Seated at !vVer flows, either to be used for irrigation or to generate electricity ar power e dam itself or further downstream.
Copier 3RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
VOL%
The unreeulated monthly flows for a simulation Deriod of 74 vearc at
For   some   of   the   sites   the   simulation   was   shorter   due   to   the   lack   of   data,   and   ixxir   ex
with other gauging stations 
COrrclatjc-
The    reservoir    operation    model    used    for    this    project    is    HEC-5,    a    computer    simulation    j for flood control, water conservation and hydroelectric generation systems This nr ^J
rt
of   any   configuration   for   short   interval   of   historical   hydrological   events   or   for   longer   duraf   * non-flood periods The program can be used to determine
•          Conservation storage requirements for each reservoir in the system,
•             The   influences   of   a   system   of   reservoirs   on   the   spatial   and   temporal   distribution   cf runoff in the basin
•             The    evaluation    of    operational    criteria    for    both    flood    control    and    hydropower    for    a system of reservoirs
In addition to the flowr sequences, the input to the model consists  of the reservoir characteristics  such as  the area capacity  curve, the outlet discharge capacity  as  a function of
the    reservoir    level,    the    net    evaporation    over    the    reservoir    and
r
._ -------------- -- -------  ------------------ — 
r
------ e
^ia
a    set    of
et  ic^uucments Theu
operating    rales,
objectives 
are
including,
dead accostmopraligsheed
buffer
active
by   simzoulnaetin, g   the   seqstuoernatgiael   operation   of
and     flood     control
a
systemsurochf arge
rese   ,
The
fhtFydanrvopmortwneAr fn«prlai +nti Anis 
J
charaehctrtertriisentjdainixbay I rsa,nF    installed   caI pacity, 1^h.e_aTd___l_o_sse ___s, _*_ rt>ai■!   water   rating ’' o" m-e
and efficiency
The first use of the model for this  study  was  to determine the yield of the proposed reservoirs For the purpose of this  study  the yield was  defined as  the constant monthly  flow that can be guaranteed every  month of the simulation period with a 98% reliability, i.e , the shortage is proposed
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan01BASE ANP DEVTLOPMtNT OPTIONS
VOLUME U
'project N»•"c
TMabelane 3.5 Y   Anniueal ld F oflow Proposed RAecstievervoi  Strors age                  Yield at 98% Rel.
(m /s)
J
| (ftrnbeL — ——             368
390
[tana__ _   '                                         371
Tams __      —                 17 7 JiDOvO ——
5 47
3
(MCM) 249 6.600 57 3 378
6.682
Jongl—— ——
lm3/s) 99 362
920 5 47
358
353                                 _       4,807
329
Chuy.------ ---------- — —   2 73
MQ — ----------------- — TVirtibonil
27.2
2 56
T75                                           133 1
7.75
1211 . .
2.341
74.1
92.2
1,552
88 5
Gilo- 3                            |   92 2                                          930
_
83.3
Birt)ir-A                          579                                           827
534
Gcba-R
143.1
1,365
«5
Gcbi-A
35 9
550
27.9
Sew
7.44
lJ32                                  J      7 25
.
Sot                                              53 6                                       1 194
18.8
Gumero
8.70
200                                      1 7.70
Bare                                      49 8                                          483
31.9
Beko
b 2] 2                                            544
21.2
Kishu                               11 7                                             127
8,20
Saku-Guda                      5 91                                          80
5.52
Birbir-R
105 9
2,490
104.7
"P* yield is  a characteristic  of the reservoir and flow sequence, but does  not necessan y reflect the availability  of water for irrigation purpose where the flow requirements  vary  orm ^onth io month, or for hydropower where the requirements  is  in terms  of energy  an power dependability.
used to dp?^atlOri reservo*r following monthly supplemental water requirements were erniJne the potential of reservoir.
V|oithlv In-; -
gation Requirements in m /sec per 10,000 hectares
3
—-J 940
4 60
Julv August
"1 9.10
I 0.00
1.20
September                              000
-
0.00
October
1 0.00
0.00
November
I 5.80
-
is 
jjrit
^&€lnarid Pattem the maximum area which can be
^«iou of operation of the reservoirs, as shown m Table 3 6 An
7 60                                          December
12.20
River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
ChapicrJ
71RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
requirement was placed on the irrigation project: for environmental reasons a m' ' constant release equal to 8% of the mean annual flow’ should be maintained in . '
(
niniUrtl
downstream of the dam
e river
Table 3.6 Reservoir Storage and Irrigable areas
Dam Active Storage
(MCM)
1
Water level
Mai Min
Environmental
J                            gabl?
Irri
Release (m /s)
Ar « (ha)
I tang
158
k---------------------------------
431.6
428 5              fTl.2
Gam be la             2.102
95
505 0
482.0                 29 7
Chiru                      134
49 800 '
512.0
5040                 0.44
i 2 00 n
Dumbong              93
513 5                 5060                 0 62
Gilo-1                    2,341
606.8                 578 6                590
162 doc
Gilo-2                  | 1,427
473.0                 4600                  740                               100,000“
Hydropower
With regards  to hydropower operation, the simulation allows  the determination of the firn energy, as  well as  the secondary  energy. For the purpose of this  study  the firm energy  was defined as  the constant monthly  energy  that can be guaranteed every  month of the simulation period wiih a 98% reliability. The secondary  energy  is  that which is  generated during spillage when the reservoir is  full, up to the full capacity  of the turbines  The secondary- energy- cannel be guaranteed and therefore has  a lesser value than the firm energy  Table 3 7 gives  the results of the simulation of the hydropower reservoirs
Table 3.7 Firm Energy Potential of Proposed Reservoirs
Project Name           Mean Annual            Active       Storage     Installed Flow                           (MCM)                           Capacity (MW)
1
,---------------------
1  Finn Eners
I (GWh/vr)
Baro-Al
49,8                              483
40
208
Baro-A2                                   49 8
483
170
84
Birbir-A
57.9
827
95
465                   r 2’5^—-1
492
4- ------
Birbir-R                                  1059
2.490
Geba-R                                  143 1                            1,365                               310
i .574
Geba-Al
35.9
550
105
529
Geba-A2
35.9
550
66
337__-^
Gilo-1
74.1
2,341
so
Gumero-1
8 70
200
12
426_._--
61 _ _ -
Gumcro-2
8.70
200                                18
Gumero-3
8 70                           200
ro2___— -
F            20 ^  4
Kashu
------ —-------------- -----------      = 11.7                             127                                60
299__^-
Sor-R                                       53,6
194
13
71 _ -----
Sor’A                                        53 6                              194                                52
jgr
Tams                                     353
4,807                           1.060
5J52___-J
TaMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Ba$in lotegritcd Development Master Plan
72
chup|fr^BASE AN,> DEVTL0,,MINT
OrnO
"S
VOLUME n
n roeram
has  also  been  used
to  s
imul
ate
the  combined
operation  of
two  hydroelectric 
1*  PXts  as 
a  balanced  system  w
here
ene
rgy 
deficit  at  one
reservoir  can
be  compensated
^/.he  other
This  is  the  case  for
the
sys
tem
of  the  two  d
ams  on  the
Birbir  River  This 
*      tion    p
1t
rovides    f'rm      Cnergy      '
n      CX
C€SS
°f
WhB'    W0U’d
56      Boated
by    each    plant
° R(jjvidually
Multipurpose P J
ro
ects
,
,
.
General  all  the  hydropower  dams  have  the  potential  to  regulate  the  river  flows  to  the , n   L  of  irrigation  further  downstream  This  means  that  the  dry  season  river  flows  will  be Rented by the releases required to generate hydropower so that either the need for storage JX   for   irrigation   supply   is   avoided   or   the   volume   of   such   storage   is   reduced   The multipurpose operation of two dams has been simulated, Gilo-1 and Gambela
[f Gilo -I is considered as a hydropower project, with priority given to the production of firm energy the flow from the reservoir is regulated such that the minimum average monthly flow would be 64 m’/s  Based on the water requirements  for irrigation shown above, and an environmental release of 5.9 m’/s  (8% of the mean annual flow), this  flow rate would be sufficient to irrigate 47,600 hectares  Alternatively, if priority  were to be given to irrigation over energy, Gilo-1 would be capable of irrigating 123,000 hectares, but in this case the firm energy generated would drop from 426 GWh/yr to 119 GWh/yr
In the case of Gambela a simulation model was prepared for a dam significantly lower than tbit proposed in the Russian study. This  potentially  dual project, i e. imgation and hydropower, was  considered with a priority  to irrigation. There are 95,400 ha that can be supplied with water from the reservoir by gravity, which could be released through the power plan at the toe of the dam For a reservoir maximum pool level of 495m, 365 GWh/yr of firm energy could be generated by the 75 MW plant
The other potential multipurpose use of project is that of combining flood control and hydropower generation Of all the dams considered, only the TAMS dam has a sufficient
St) rage capacity and commands a sufficiently large catchment area to provide a viable flood COnlrD' facility a simulation of the operation of this dam in this mode, with the reservoir
S?10 747m durinB thc flood season t0 Provldc 1(237 mcm of flood storage’ sh°'*S th^‘
5 GWh;^ ^rm Cner®y’s generated, compared with the single purpose generation of
Operation
1150 been used10 simulate the combined operation of hydroelectric power 3 ?alanccd system where energy deficit at one reservoir can be compensated by 
Typical reaches of river where such projects can be planned include the ^^eratPH u 3 r’VCrs ^his conjunctive operation provides firm energy in excess o w at wou
by each plant individually.
a rescrvou’ system consisting of Birbir-A with an installed
* dam at the location proposed in the Russian study. fctwha 2    VC,aiE1 1,120 m instead of El. 1,158 m(adam 38 m lower) and airmstaJ 
>*4 X
0<JtPut i. . Would be capable of generating a total of 2,618 GWh P *. ®*f-^
ey
Jentiy of
-
Btrbtr.A
and
]?43
Qwh
fof
Birbir R
.
(a
totaJ
2,379
GWh
of
firm
energy 
per
year)
**4^--------------------
—
M for R rv C0mPared with a total output of the two projects opera in.
K Akobo River Basin integrated Development Mister Plan
73
Ch
apter 3RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
Thus the combined system produces 19% more firm energy than does the tu0
operating independently 
A similar situation exists on the Geba River. Three dam projects have been identified
Geba river and its tributary the Sor river. They consist of the Geba-A dam with two down** diversions, the Sor dam with a power plant at the dam and a downstream diversion and Geba-R dam located just upstream of the confluence with the Birbir Rjver A simulation
of this system has been prepared with a total installed capacity of 618 MW. 183 MW at the diversions downstream of Geba-A dam, 65 MW on the Sor river and 370 MW at the GeM dam This system of five power plants would generate 3,238 GWh of firm energy per year Ths is 14% more than the five power plants running independently
COlDPonti
Based on the attractive return shown by  some of the hydroelectric  schemes  in the Baro-Akofo hasin several scenarios  of development have been identified as  pan of this Master Plan In orfe to evaluate the economic  benefits  of these projects, further simulations  of development sags were performed
One model was developed to evaluate the indirect benefits of flow regulation in the upper basin To do so, this model considered the stage of development when two regulating dams are built a the upper basin, namely  the Geba-A and the Baro dams  Both of these projects  can be economically  justified on the basis  of hydroelectric  power as  indicated in Annex  I J, with the construction of two downstream power plants  at each of these projects  The reservoir on the Geba River releases  a regulated flow of 31 lm3/sec. while for that on the Baro the firm flw
would  be  41  2m /sec  This  regulation  of
3
the  flows  although  modest,  significantly  increases  the
low flows  of the Baro in the Gambela plain The simulation model developed for this  scenario shows that, as a secondary benefit, the regulated flow can be used to irrigate 85,500 hectares of land at the projects  identified in the vicinity  of the Itang dam These 85,500 hectares  could be irrigated without the provision of any  additional regulating dam, and would also meet the requirement for the minimum environmental flow of 31 2m7sec. This  area is  78,000 hectare larger than the 7,500 hectares which could be achieved without any regulation of the flows 
3.3.6 Sedimentation (Annex IF)
The principal objective of the sedimentation studies is to estimate the amount of
that will enter and accumulate in the reservoirs planned for the Baro-Akobo basin
the best estimate of the transported sediment, the reservoir dead storage are usually sc
to be large enough to allow accumulation of 50 or 100 years of sediment
Sediment transport data have been collected at eleven gauging stations in the basin. 1 or#
stations the earliest records appear to be in 1982 on the Ketto near Chanka "°   '[  ’
wei
?a sn
records stop in 1990; overall only 101 measurements have been taken for the entire
These measurements have been taken over a reasonably large range of dischai
include measurements at high flows, some of them during the rainy season at
jjjc
excess of three or four times the mean annual flow Some of the measurements 
&
taken at the beginning of the rainy  season, when soil erosion and sediment tran frequently  expected to be the highest due to the higher credibility  of the dry  ■ deprived of vegetative cover
Only  the  raw  data  of  the  sediment  measurement  were  provided  with  no  analysis  or The methodology for sample collection, i.e depth integration, collection P010 ’
unknown at this point The largest observed concentration observed in any o TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Batin Integrated Development Master Plan
imports |0lO (JRCE BASE aND DEVEL0PMENT OPTIONS
VOLUME D
I
renlen(s is 1-^00 parts per million (ppm) or 1.500 grams per cubic meter Most of the
n 'e8Sll renlents are in the order of 100 ppm with significant exceptions For example, the
^'^^near Chanka has a number of measurements with concentration excess of 500 ppm, up
pm
To a certain extent the measurements on the Ouwa near Gulisso also indicate
to l ’\l v higher concentration varying from 300 ppm to 1.200 ppm Finally a third station,
rel k'>nni near Chanka. shows measurements with high sediment concentration generally 
*^g from 300 ppm to 800 or 900 ppm
. on the flow measurement indicated at the time the sample were taken it is possible to
vert the measured concentration in daily sediment load, i e in two per day For each of the station with sufficient data. i.e.. the Ketto, Gumero, Ouwa, Sor Gecheh and Begwaha
sediment rating curve was estimated by determining the best regression estimate between
daly sediment load and river discharge
Dailv flow duration curves have not been made available and therefore a stria integration of the measurements that would provide an estimate of the annual sediment load is not possible For the purpose of evaluating the data colleaed. a synthetic duration curve similar to that presented  by  ARDCO-GEOSERV  in  their  hydrological  studies  was  used  The  results  are shown in Table 3 8.
Table 3.8 Average Annual Sediment Yield in the Baro-Akobo Basin
River
Drainage Area
Mean  Annual  Flow    i Annual Sediment
(m /s)
J
| Load (t/yr/km )
2
Keto
1,006
1760                            324
Gumero
Ouwa
106                                 205            1 35
288                                 580                            284
Sor
1,620                              53 60                            124
Gecheh
79                                1 90                              63
igwaha
125                                 3 30                              85
standard these results are very low. and should be confirmed by developing an intense P^'gn of sampling and measurements with proper quality control
. eve' analysis performed for this study, and with the limited amount of data h *S C'Car l^e results are only indicative and the database is insufficient to
°f study* ••
l[ has been
est ’ma,cs provided by processing these data are reliable At this level
; tservoj^!t IS ^ere^ore prudent to use a more conservative approach for the planning of frequently ° serve^ ln various part of the world that the annual average soil erosion
' tTun’ '^e
equivalent of approximately 2,000 t/yr/km  and can average
2
et ^0s'tion k
a
o er0ded scn' reaches the river and accumulated in reservoirs, generally there is 
r ^°°fsedi lv>een ’he source and the reservoir. This effect is measured as the delivery 
■^eam *'nt which is the ratio of the sediment yield of a catchment to the total soil loss Teases With ■ k^’ery ratio is a function of the catchment shape, slope etc and usually 
ttl ’ght 0 'ncreasing catchment area Based on the observation that sedimentation in the “'Metres 35 ^ere as in other part of the country in the world, the estimate of three
0 so'l loss has been adopted until further systematic sedimentation
______________ _________ ^<0bo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
75
Chapter 3RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
V  Ll
°  ^I]
measurements are performed Based on this estimate and delivery ratio
regression analysis of many large basins the estimates that were adopted for°h^ ^
n
reservoirs are shown in Table 3.9.
v lrious
Table 35 Reservoir Sedimentation Rate
Calchmeni Area (“■?')
Delivery Ratio (%)
Sedimentation
Rate (Ton/vr)
Reservoir Equivalent
(mcm/yr)
100
56
297,000
0 22
500
3S
990,000
0 74
1,000
32
1,670,000
124
5,000
21
5,600,000
4 13
10,000
18
9,398,400
6.96
20 000
15
15,800.000
11,70
30,000
14
21.400,000
15 90
3.4 Natural resources and agriculture
3.4.1 Introduction
Since the acceptance of the Inception Report, additional data have been incorporated into the project s  GIS and natural resource database While land, vegetation, and water are vital to the development of the project area, access  to national and international markets. labcur availability, and appropriate technology  are equally  necessary  Soil conservation and improved forest management are critically  important to many  of the proposed interventions, and this  is reflected in the content of the proposals  The state of natural resources  depends  to a large exteffl on the status  and condition of forestry  cover conserve the forest and all proposed project components  will be protected against environmental degradation (Annex  4 and Appendix  5 □ this Volume refers)
3.4.2 Land Evaluation (Annex 2A)
The second (interim) stage of land evaluation included the analysis  of data reviewed m a previous  (inception) stage (Annex  2A). During the recent phase there was  close co-operall°n between the Land Evaluation, and Soils  disciplines  and the GIS sections  of the project T^- integration resulted in the production of a series  of maps  and tabulations  covering both la« evaluation and soils
The following paragraphs discuss the methods used to evaluate land capability  ppef
d
crops or groups of crops and production systems in the project area Eight crops in basin and 8 in the lower basin were evaluated
The maps produced by the study include (1) land suitable for irrigated rice croppy' irrigated non-rice cropping A soil conservation requirement classification was als (cCdoit based on the following divisions: cropping, forestry; non-agricultural, catchment P grazing and perennial uses
The population support data from the WBISPP (Woody Biomass Inventory’ an Planning Project), together with the project adjusted wercda population data were TAMS-ULG Biiro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
and I*1
to
Cbup’"’3--
BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
VOLUME II
, rC a population support capacity map This map provides a clear picture of the capacity of
to support the increasing population in each wereda at the following points
ar capacity in 1995,
ai capacity in 10 years,
at capacity in 25 years
The above data indicate that about 15% of the total project area is  presently  (1996) in a critical Ljition. In other words, weredas  that are presently  indicated as  having a critical population capacity  require urgent soil conservation measures  if their current land use intensity  is  to be iained Or. alternatively, the population density  is  reduced to an environmentally acceptable level.
!t  must  be  emphasised  that  this  report  is  based  upon  data  from  various  sources  The  land  and I   sal   classification   systems   used   in   the   lower   and   upper   basins   differ   and   have   been   extracted
from WBISPP, 1995 and Selkhozpromexport, 1990 Some of the data collected from zonal and itaonal offices  were fragmented and based on varying categories  The WB1SSP data is  based on satellite imagery  acquired during 1986-89 and supported by  limited field observations collected during 1992-93 These data cannot be considered a complete reflection of the land use rhanges that have occurred in the basin over the last 10 years
U. J Soils and Soil Conservation (Annex 2B)
The second stage of this  component of the project has  been directed towards  the production and zeneration of GIS information in map and tabulated data A series  of thematic  maps  and tables ±a display  the available data to the best advantage were produced using soils, land use and land evaluation data.
otnbinmg the soil mapping, including the legends, of both basins has resulted in a working ? CUn*nt at 1.1,000.000 scale, (publishing scale 1:1,750,000). The resulting legend with areas Aaaa 28 a°d S‘°Pe un*t *s Presented in Table 2 in Section 4 4 and Table 6 in Section 5 3 of
re P°rt also considers the risk of soil erosion and discusses estimates of soil loss lesion'5 <riCX an^ Appendix 2 in this volume refer) In parallel to this tabular work, an
fi|e
ar| d waterlogging map was prepared from the project land capacity computer
■tjetativ     d^°*'     Conservation     Requirement     Classification     (SCRC).     The     WB1SSP     1987-1990
tflocar?6 ,ta
FAO land cover were overlain to assess the reduction in area or change indicative vegetation types
< should be”8 thC su‘tab’l’ty  °f the project area for various  forms  of agricultural development
^Ppine w notec* that the mapping scale of the three environmental data sources  used in soil
^tr basin re*1 at rec°nnaissance survey  level The field scale of I 200,000 in the
GE°SERv go7112’ 1983-I986) and a scale of 1:250.000 in the upper basin (ARDCO-
Would inri
this 'evel Of study basic planning units would be large in size of area
Ttrns used” k 3 certain amount of inevitable inaccuracies The soil and land classification
PrinciPles a h *ch  ?'
Judies of Soyuz and ARDCO-GEOSERV were based on different
n    ere at Cerent levels of intensity. To combine the thematic maps of these
2A ref P^Plt18 unit was aligned a Baro-Akobo land mapping unit number (Table 4
t0 44 mapping units The original mapping units have iscretc hich have been attached to the Baro-Akobo land mapping units
Chapter 3
River Basin Integrated DevdoprocDt Master PI inF
RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
VOt'Xll
The land classification of this project is based on the Soil Conservation R-.
Classification (SCRCj, developed by FAO in 1988 The main guidelines: Land Classif  * * '
61  1  1
for Use in Soil Conservation has been used io identify areas of broad suhabiljn.'
' Jr‘
context   it   should   be   emphasised   that   erosion   control   and   soil   conservation   have   been   ”
to   be   of   primary   importance,   when   considering   the   Population   Support   Capacity   in   th
area    Based    on    FAO’s    SCR    Classification,    the    ARDCO-GEOSERV    and    Soyuz    systems^*0 convened   (Table   11,   Appendix   1   Annex   2A   refers)   It   is   at   this   stage,   that   some   sub interpretations   of   the   two   data   sources   had   to   be   made   However,   the   above   table   showsT exact     correlation     between     each     other.     Finally     il     was     necessary     for     accuracy’s     sake^ generalise   the   44   Baro-Akobo   land   mapping   units   at   scale   1.500,000   to   19   Land   CapahV
Mapping Units, These 19 units are mapped at a scale of 1 1,750.000.
ll< ^
Provided the mapping scale agrees  with the available data collection density  there is  no drawback  in this  conversion of mapping systems  and generalisation of mapping units  It should be noted that the table al Appendix  1, Generalised Land Capacity  Classes  aik Corresponding Land Units. SCRC Classes  and ARDCO-GEOSERV. SOYUZ Mapping Units, is  an important key  to the mapping system used in the Baro-Akobo project area The results are reliable (at the scale considered) and applicable to master planning
The protection of the natural resources  base of the basin is  an essential requirement for iw conservation of the soils  and consequently  the population support capacity  of the project ata The report highlights  current and future loss  of soil cover and forests  II introduces  three options facing the regional administrations and recommends a land husbandry approach.
One of the basic  requirements  in the concept of land husbandry  will be the establishment of a regional register based on the existing 1:50,000 topographic  maps, which cover about 90% o. the basin In this  context the provision of new airphoto cover is  suggested for areas  that are i- critical population capacity
An assessment of the scale of the task facing the Regional Bureaux in adopting a tart husbandry approach has been made To achieve a workable assessment, two contrasting
were selected Jima, a coffee producing region, and Benshangul region. # arable livestock ramfed area at an altitude of 1,000-1,500 masl The annex prorides a 3 yea- indicative extension input and an approach to improve the participation of farmers and land owners 
3. 4. 4 Geology (Annex 2C)
Regional geology
eastern uDlan<k°' COn5'StS. primarily of highly folded Basement crystalline rocks fo lhe the west The land P covcnng Tertiary lavas and Quaternary sediments in the lowlands10
whose altitudf I "X
characterised bY mountainous terrain in the eastern two-thif -
“ WO.:,400m.
. gently wesIward sloping plain in lhe
*
of   tbe Geological     mapping     is     carried     out     by     the     Ethiopian     Institute     of     Geological     ^r^ppings( Ministry of Mines and Energy Its objective is to cover the whole of Ethiopia wit
I 250,000 scale Mapping in the Baro-Akobo basin is presently of the mineralised a^e The geological map of Ethiopia, published at 1 2.000,000 scale, has been reP  4^t5^£iOO
ro
for the basin at 1 1,000.000 scale The ARDCO-GEOSERV geological maps at 1 250,
TAMS-ULC Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development MasterPlan
OP*er JbaSE
and DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
RtS01'1*_______________________________________ _________
, RoSSiai> engineering geological maps al 1200.000 scale fem a compreheMre ^tfthe basin's geoiogy.
VOLUME II
6< M< f’ "‘rDamSi,n
pirbir-R
'* hm site is on lhe ^5fb!r ^ver 1 I km upstream of the confluence with the Geba river It is 
T ,-ed in a narrow canyon like valley with sleep slopes The dam is located in Pre-Cambrian
' ^bne rocks consisting of granite and clay shale interbedded with quartzite overlapped with
^tmsry deposits of various origins The granite should be a fine foundation, but the clay shale
be only weak to moderately strong These formations are shown on geological section 08-
lt] tbe Russian report feathering is shown as 25-30m deep Probably the highly weathered
■2 moderately weathered rock is l5-20m thick No drillholes are shown on the section, hence the
geology must have been determined from outcrop mapping The dam crest length is 1 1 km and
■fe depth of the valley is 180m
According to the aerial photographs  (strip 9. photos  917.918,919) rock  is  exposed at a high elevation (Bene Mountain) to the north of the dam site in several areas. There are many iusnons  with four main trends  near the dam site and a fault or major lineaiion controls  the river at the dam site Rock  appears  to be near the surface upstream of the dam site on the north side ?, should be relatively  easy  to find a quarry  site for rockfill, A spillway  and tunnel portal would te preferable in the granite Impervious  fill will probably  be available as  residual clay  on the plateaux  areas  Tunnelling conditions  to the south of the site for the headrace runnel should be good with support of shotcrete, wire mesh and rockbolts. Excavation should be possible by enter drill and blast or TBM A rockfill dam is  recommended for this  site The foundation is  not considered to be good enough for a concrete dam
O’) Birbir-A
?,1 dam site is on the Birbir river, about 65 km upstream of its confluence with the Geba and ^ oni ^^hidolo ARDCO-GEOSERV produced a sketch geological map based on
A]| .P 010 :n,erPretatl°n which covers a large area. The geological succession in the area is,
° Vei- ^rObI'®   Mekortnen Basalt, over Mekonnen Basalt, over Pre-Cambrian basement
er
yen,,*'LWrd!n- *° *** 1
geological map the area is in granite Granite is exposed in
*^ch rtach forms the foundation of the dam site. Five test pits were located at the dam site
*° a depth of 4m 1116 dam sbe itse1f is on ?ranile 315(1 biotite S’1*55 overlain b?
1063 ancl fluvial fine sand. The site is covered by Aerial photographs, stnp 6, photos 
the da ■ ThC ““ bas very geTltle reiief Rock is 1101 ^P05^ “ lar8C are#s ai,
y'
and™SltC a b8h,er c°lour tone area to the south probably indicates Basalt near the shaikh beLP°ssible develop a quarry in this area. If later drilling proves granite at
^Petent p ,depth’ this also might provide rockfill, as the granite is likely to be strong and
v hei e
is to be U£i*er
is required before deciding whether a rockfill or an earthfill
ARn?^*^ Hovvever on present evidence it seems likely that an earthfill dam would Slte and “GEOSERV report that impervious fill is to be found on hill slopes near the
T^of JT*?* ard basaJt can be used for rock fill, riprap and concrete aggregates No
.J* ^nstriir-.
gravel were found in the vicinity of the dam site. A diversion ^nne * the granite and biotite gneiss with support of shotcrete, wire mesh and
1Q tite content is high, heavy support may be required
Mister Plan
ChiplerJresource base and development options
VOL^„
(c) Sese
c Rjver 45 km upstream of its confluence with the
The Sese dam site is on the uppageological map the site is underlay and 60 km northeast of CtoreA^rdmg mt ^q^serv repon at 1:60.00c basalts and the geological skacn v Basalt ^j^y coveted by Residual c|*
shows Mekonnen Basalts At the, There are no available aenal P^PP1^ area and the topographic map mdicatol ,s no indication of rock near the sun
lhc
y ha5 modera
te
one phot0graph fairly ntar
| f and is forested The.
re ie
j$ probably thick ovcriying (hf
earthfill dam seem5 l0 bc tbe
basalt       .^^hdis^\AWXe^unnel       can       be       constructed       in       the       basalt       with       suppon       « terete' wire mesh and rockbolts.
(d> Geba-R
The Geba dam site is  on the Geba river 3 km upstream of its  confluence with the Birbir River and 75 km from Gambela The dam site is  located in a steep sided valley  on granite Section 08- 07 shows  a cross  section of the dam site with no drillholes, in granite According to the
1  250,000  geological  map  the  area  is  in  hornblende  biotite  gneisses,  but  the  Gore  sheet  published by   EIGS   in   1987   indicates   syn-tectonic   granite   The   site   is   covered   by   aerial   photos,   strip   11, photos 1131 and 1132 The topography is very' rugged and the valley is steep sided
Rock  appears  to outcrop on the southern side of the valley  1-1 5 km upstream of the dam site This  could be a possible location for a rockfill quarry  Weathering at the dam site, shown on the geological section extends  to 20m Highly  and moderately  weathered rock  may  extend to 10-15 m depth The spillway  can be founded on slightly  weathered granite at 10-15m depth Impervious  fill can probably  be obtained from residual soil on (he plateaux  areas  A diversion tunnel in granite should be easily  constructed but some suppon of shotcrete, wire mesh and rock bolts  will be required Geological conditions  are favourable for a rockfill dam, but if the rock outcrops or is near the surface, a concrete dam which might be arched, may be feasible
(e)         Ge ba-A
and   60   km   east   nfr   0I^.dlt<^
mT“"' 
eba     ^*Ver     ®hout   120   km   upstream   of
»" 
its   junction   with   the   Birbir
The AGgeotogied skeid. map oTlfc
site    alluvium    nv«t    »,    <h    k    e      ™nen     Basal1over      hornblende    and    biotite    gneisses    At    the    dam
a^ohZ
gentle relief and ’ Ph°10
k ^“da“On The “ »
right at the con.ee of .vril»bl< n °* stereoscoPic The whole area is forested wit*
of   the   dam   she   th*CountT^’   Roci;     ls     hkely   to   be   far   below'   the   surface   although   downstream
nne.^7?^
^rndfoatm^^ ,S north of the vlie
x G reP°n mdjCateS gOrges cut into basement hornblende and biotite
bV N'S- NE‘SW and E‘W fadts From Ihe acna' Ph0I°
oFoulCroPPinS rock, but possible basalt outcrops are present to
hillslones     isrm     t^i**     Ko"lboarea       which       ™ghr     provide     a     rockftJI     quarry    The     clay     on     d>e
J? b'
! fof impcn',Ou5 SI Due to the lack of rock an earthfill dam’s
be   investioaiwi   _c"orth     80111,1     fault     war     dam   axis   to   the   east   shown   on   the   sketch   map
K
h
and  graV 1 iS found 1!
Hood plains A diversion tunne) should *
diversions and o r* rv i Support shotcrete, wire mesh and rockbolts The can also o ’ lkC 7 r. parJy ‘n ba5afl "»d P^'V in hornblende and biotite gn'*&
The power houses are more likely to be founded on gneisses
(f| Gumero 
The Gumero damsite is on the Gurnero River 35km upstream of the junction with tne
r
 Birbir^
sca e
j
28km northwest of Gore The dam site is shown on the geological sketch map at 1:60,
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Bavin Integrated Development Miner Plan
80, orE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
____________________________
volume n
. „ on Mekonncn Basalt overlying ^nhlende and biotrte gneisses On the 1 250 000
map and the published Gore sheet only gnetsses are shown in the area The site >s 
-*S w «■»! Pto,0S-
P “'5W
1585 The area has moderare defend lh
* Lately 6km "U« ’ "°
^ dB are forested at the dam Me The uplands m the vicinity of foe dam site are cuh, sated
‘Save rounded slopes No large ar eas of rock are seen immediately near the dam sue tat
1      nhwM1 °f ,heJMouttuin. basemem tneisses 
distinct foliation stnattons outcrop and a rockfill quarry here would be easy to develop
7, gentle slopes outstde the steep valley nm reputedly have suitable residual clay for
Lmousfill Basalts may also be available for a rockfill quarry No sand and gravel deposits 
m the area A rockfill dam is recommended for ths site A diversion tunnel should be
jmh constructed in either basalts or gneisses with support of shotcrete, wire mesh and
rockbolts
|.j Sor-(R »nd A)
pie Sor damsite, is on the Sor River about 30 km upstream of the Geba and 10km northwest of Metu A geological section 08-06 shows  the site to be in gneiss  The AG geological map 1250,OOOand the published Gore sheet indicate leucocratic hornblende and biotite gneisses The cross section indicates 30m of weathering of the rock at the dam site, but there is no indication of any drillholes being put here so this may be conjecture, and it is believed that weathering is such less The site is covered by aerial photos strip 13,photos 1483 and 1484 The whole of the valley area is forested with cultivated land on the upland plateau areas Slopes of the valley are moderate There is no evidence of rock outcropping at the surface from the photos The dam should be earthfill and suitable impervious fill can be found on the upper hill slopes A diversion tunnel should be easily constructed in the gneisses with support of shotcrete, wire mesh and mckbolts
ft) Saku Guda
pie Saku Guda site is on the Saku Guda River 35 km upstream of its confluence with Bare and
■- km north ofGambela The 1 250,000 geological map indicates the site to be basalts overlying
of the Basement The published Gore sheet indicates gneisses and granites The
^kigtcal sketch map at 1 60,000 scale indicated granitoid orthogneiss The dam site is covered
^ aeral P^tos, strip 11, photos 1113 and 1114 The area has moderate relief and is partially 
s *le tbe r*ver f°Hows a feoh or maior Imeauon. and several other lineations 
Her* Prtsent lbc area No rock is seen at the site or in the surrounding area on the photos 
®e •              *S 3 P°ss’hility of rock close to the surface approximately 1/2 km away from the
.fittaii   nOrt^   signified   on   the   aerial   photos   by   light   colour   tone   Major   linealions   are
rt Medl'. ?
The residual clay occumng on the gentle slopes of the uplands can
st
Xitdnr? rePort) be used for impervious fill. This report also indicates that granite
ft aba F'ng uP ream of the dam site can be used for rock fill, or the basalts which occur in the > will 3bn uPstre«» of the dam she could be used alternatively The choicetof dam
^°pria> CfCnd on detailed investigations, but an earthfill dam may wel
hi a?d gravel deposits were not identified in the vicinity o t am s c
^pj^1
Wily constructed in basalts, gneisses or granites and headrace nm 0 shotcrete, wire mesh and rockbolts
lie J**
fc5Ct’°n
ls 'n die upper reaches of the Baro basin, about 75 km
^tthe Birbir and 30km almost due south from the town o Gore The 1
P ’ndicates Basalt in the area of the she A geologt^
> 1.5,ooo an unknown scale indicates fluvial deposits overly g
--------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ^Akobo River Buin integrated Develop®*"’ Muter PIm
81
Ch»p«er3RESOURCE BASF. AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
overlying basalt The basans e shown on aenal photo smp this photo is covered tn tore
gXX No mojo.
, i, The basalts outcrop on a 2m verttcal section near the river bed The $ite„
no flcreoscopiC coverage is available.
dani sitc js following the line of a N-S ;
the From the topographlc map thc
“ see" “,h'
•      C11 • uv.lv to be obtained from the thick residual clay on the hill slopes Sand anc
Impervious fillnd . bc
gravel have not been f w possibility- at this site A shotcrete, wire ^sh and bo bridge upstream of the dam
o f the dam site An earthfill dam is the onis
^^cted in the basalt with support of
A « of regdual day obtamed from near
considered t0 bc repre$entaL,e
powerhouse located on a C-bend of the river,
f “    ££     .X'X     «v«ion     2     and     powerhouse     will     be     in     b.onie     gneiss     «h     possft some basalt at high elevations
(j) Beko
Thc  Beko dam site is  on the Beko River 25 km upstream of its  confluence with Gilo and 35ta northwest of Mizan leferi The I 250,000 geological map indicates  that the area is  underlain by basalt The AG geological sketch map at 160,000 scale shows  basalts, rhyolites, trachytes, tic and ignimbrite, at the dam site Younger basalts occur to the north The site is covered on aeni photos, strip 36, photos  2696 and 2697 The whole area is  forested and relief is  gentle to moderate No area of major rock outcrop can be seen on (he photos but the AG report indicates that a basaltic plug on the left bank at the dam site could be a suitable quarry site However this needs  to be proved by  drilling Clay  outside the steep valley  slopes  may  be suitable for impervious  fill No sand and gravel was  found in the area. Lineations  in two directions  art shown in the area on the sketch map At this stage it is not possible to say definitely what type o’ dam would be most suitable A diversion tunnel could probably  be constructed easily  in the volcanic rocks with support of shotcrete, wire mesh and rockbolts
(M Kashu
The Kashu dam site is on the K h P’
its    junction    with    (he    Akobo    It    js       22kmTsF    °f       ***    Ki,u      WverlaTld      85       upstream    of 1                    811 Uta of volcan.c fU °f^lzan Tefen On the 1:250.000 geological map
_    • scale shows Swamp clay and Alluvi p'T0C,aa,cs The geological sketch map «’
onaenal photos. stop 42>
Ihe da™ si,e 15 8°od Todoph. >h
Kashu reservoir is an ideal large fl»>
.,.
is no mdication of large rock 
Re5iduaI The area is cover*
on thc Photographs Residual clav on and .bemost’sumSm n^ef«.to *
T flood p,ain uPstreani of the damsite It
surroundin8 die reservoir bowl is rugged and
hill slopes will probably prond.
Sand „„
< on the aenal photos that alluvium <vr
nm h Ti’” 1,16 fliI and colluvial ^°ng river uPstream of the dam site with
Lod     6        ,ma,eria]        A     diversion     tunnel     JTk       ?     *0Wer        hil1        slopcs        C°Iluv,um        ™y
nee ^1CS cons,derab'e suppon of
V bc
in the volcanic flows and
an steel arches may locally be required1' W'fC mCSb rockbolts is likely >° **
(I) TAMS
where the ns'er'is^owesLld Z sT °’ Gambela ” is situa,ed on ** S*
valley sides and the site  ?
d
arc dam UpXm of XT
arvh dam. Upstream of the dam sue are a scries of rap.ds The site is show* on aenal p^
IS quitc flecP Slded V-shaped Rock outcrops on ’° * SU,,able for a ^rockfill dam or
TAMS-CTXIBareA^^i^^ DoHopexm Magt/r Pian----------------------------------------------------- --
82 _p-
£S
ource base and development ofuons
VOLUME II
,7 photos > 358,1359 but the stereoscopic coverage is poor because the site is at the edge of
slflp hates producing much relief displacement Geological section 08-02 shows the site to be
by cneisses, crystalline schist, granites and granitoid gneisses Depth of weathering is 
° 1Sed « -;0 m- buI fr°m thC °bscrvaIIOIls ™de « the site this would ippea, to be an
' 'Lation as strong rock outcrops are frequently observed on both valley sides Locally 
"tay be up to 10m deep The rode is also shown to be jointed, principally in two
J Ltions One drillhole was put down at the site near to the river A spillway chute on the left
de of the dam from a small saddle appears to be a suitable location and the rock should be
nod A diversion tunnel should be easily constructed with support of shotcrete, wire mesh and
Sboltt The I 250,000 published geological map of Gore indicates the site to be in sranite
ARDCOGEOSERV geological map indicates granites in the north and tonalite,
^(diorite in the south
Mi attempt was  made to locate impervious  fill upstream of the dam site but the material found proved to be very  thin and sandy  A flat to gently  sloping area nonh of the road some 4 km jpstream of the dam site may  provide impervious  fill and this  will have to be investigated with pitting, if a rockfill dam with clay core is proposed
(m) Bongs
This  dam site is  on the Baro River 33 2km east of Gambela The AG geological map indicates that the site is  in alluvium over gneiss  and biotite gneiss  The published 1 250.000 Gore ecological map indicates  biotite gneisses  and paragneisses. A geological section 08-01 indicates the she to be in lacustrine -alluvial sandy  loam and sand overlying granites, gneisses  and janitoid gneisses  Three drillholes, are shown on the left side of the river Depth of weathering u shown as  5to 10m and jointing is  shown to 50m The site is  covered with aerial photos, strip
-   photos   1361   and   1362   The   north   abutment   of   the   dam   has   gentle   to   moderate   rounded slopes  with  rock  near  the  surface  and  the  south  abutment  is  sharp  featured  with  rock  near  the Mriace   Striations   are   seen   on   the   photos   indicating   metamorphic   rock   near   the   surface.   It should be possible to find a suitable location for a rockfill quarry near to the site in the reservoir
Impervious fill can be obtained from residual soil on gently sloping ground near the dam stf in the reservoir area A sample was obtained from a hand angering on the left bank near the , A depth 0. ] 5-0.40m and was dark red brown silty sandy clay. At depth 0 40m the auger
unable to penetrate weathered yellow quartz granite The spillway will be in gneisses and w ®athered for 10-20 m, probably highly to moderate for 10m. A diversion
"h                  easily constructed in the granites and gneisses with support of shotcrete, wire rockbolts. A rockfill dam is considered to be suitable for this site.
Gambela
geoJoo C ?5 °n ^le Baro river situated 16 2 km east of Gambela town The AG 1 250,000 gneZr". niaP indicates that the site is granite to the north and biotite gneiss and calc silicate biotite ctjj 50Uth’ The published 1 250,000 Gore sheet indicates granites, granitoid gneiss and 'Veath^n SS A 8^0logical section 08-03 shows the site to be underlain by granite and gneiss 
° n 016 section is indicated as 30 m No drillholes are indicated on the section so this
10-20 m ?
n
er coniectural It is likely that the depth of highly 
*“^2^
J 1 the no_L ^te is covered by aerial photos, strip 16, photos 1282- u
^oped , S J? KHtntte and rock occurs close to the surface A good contour q mx^d ?’sit S location Impervious fill can be obtained from residual sot on s
f    r ln tfle reservoir area A sample of this material was obtain 3 left of ?
.h’
^lay 
£*e     read   at   the   dam   site   The   matenal   was   from   0   1   to   0   5   m
' AtdeP»h 0.85 m depth the augermg stopped in weathered yellow granite Adiversto
__________ ——
Chapter 3
a^^kobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
U1resource base and development options
tunnel could be constructed in the granite or gneiss without difficulty with sunno
""
wire mesh and rock bolts The dam is very long and a rockfill dam would appear0  °f  ShoiCrHt
appropriate type
0 the
(o)      lung
This site is on the Baro river 10 km upstream of the town of Itang in the flood plain, and 2a downstream from Gambela Geological section 08-12 shows the site to be in lacustrine - Ji V
deposits of clays and loams overlying intmsive trachytes and syenites at depth The
indicates five drillholes The site is not covered by aerial photos, but photos from upstrea^". downstream of the site show the river to be an unstable meandering system with a
floodplain with point bars and back swamp areas For this reason the site is not considered tobe
a good one, but it may be possible to construct an earthfill dam Impervious fill would probabl
be available to the north west of the site as residual clay, approximately 4 km away from the at
(p)       Chiru
The Chiru dam site is on the Chiru River 15km upstream of its confluence with the Alwero and 42 km south of Gambela. According to the 1 250,000 AG geological map the site is in grarute Geological section 08-09 shows  the site to be in Quaternary  deposits  overlying gneisses  A badly crushed zone 800 m wide and up to 76m deep which is severely fissured occurs at the dar. site and geological conditions are not favourable The site is covered on aerial photos, strip 21 photos 188,189. The river follows a major lineation almost perpendicular to the dam site Tta obviously correlates with the crushed zone shown on the geological section Much of the area is forested and relief is  gentle Upstream of the dam site some of the uplands  show stnaliow indicating gneisses and schists However no large areas of rock are seen on the photos and it appears  that there is  no suitable quarry  site Impervious  fill can probably  be obtained tror residual soil in the grassland areas near the dam site .An earthfill dam would seem to be the most appropriate type for this  site A diversion tunnel in granite could be constructed easily  with support of shotcrete, wire mesh and rockbolts
X’lZ .-.-j
Aernrrii^ot^h^Ar ^CV 13 *on uPstrcam of its  confluence with the Alwtrc 
amlnoirJ 
& £50,000 8eolo8'c^ maP the site lies in Hornblende Biotite gneiss A
?
10 Sh0WS Site t0 **,n 8™“ Weathering is shown to be 30m W
Th
5
mi 8^ ** over est’mallon 4s there are no drill holes shown on te
S J!L1S!C0VTe
d On aeriaJ photos anP 24> Photos 1789,1790. Practically the "I**
thC SitC °n " “ C0Wed in forest Re,icf * VCfy gentJC ^’ o
t h?
' S lndjcat,on of ^osed rock in the area Impervious fill
ffe onl^^"lA^ birr if «
Sts 2 T
m reSidUaJ 5011 k
° r dUS S”C ^vers’°n tunnel can probably be constructed in the gn®
0,8 site-
is
b ' 7^ “ Wi" nKd
* of shotcrete, wire mesh and
bolb and possibly steel arches The site is not cons.deredm be very favourable as « « Dumbong
*he Dumbong .
55 kj?'so^“2
26 *"> upstream of the Abobo
Accotdtnj to the AG 12^
strongly weathered to tn^^ “nc&'g'ble ThJ?^ CTOSS !eCTio” °8-13 shows ,he
10 M
»be
fissu^±«>modem,’estows « fissured.
12drill
boles 
The
rod»
Ko 20m. The section also shows the
P^meable rocks occur at a depth varying fom '
3
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Planvolume n
onicl in lhe ®neiss with “Pportof shotcretc wire mesh and rock bolts An eanhfill dam
ccni . the most appropriate choice of dam type for this site
3 dam site is on the G1I0 river located 4 km upstream of Agenga village A geological
Mis  section 08-11 shows  the site to be situated on mixed alluvial deposits  overlying fine- wained sandstone. Four drill holes  are shown on the section The site is  covered on aerial Sos. strip 27 photos  319’320 From the Pholos 311(3 topographic  map it is  quite clear that the at is  located on an unstable meandering river system with many  oxbows, point bars  and backswamps-The river has  changed course continuously  over a wide flood plain Hence the site
■s not considered to be good as a dam site
{l) Gilo 2-1
Tne Gilo 2 dam site is  on the Gilo River approximately  33 km upstream from the village of Agenga and 85 km south of Gambela The Russian engineering geological map shows  the site to be in colluvial and eluvial deposits  overlying volcanics  and basement metamorphics  A geological cross  section 08-04 shows  the dam site to be in mixed alluvial and eluvial clays  and lands  overlying basalts  at the upper abutments, overlying biolite gneisses. The clays  and sands artupto 10m thick. Weathering of the bedrock  is  15 to 20m deep Five drillholes  are shown on the section The site is shown on aerial photo, strip 29,pboto 385, but no stereoscopic coverage is nailable. According to the 1 50,000 topographic  map the site has  moderate relief On the photo there appears to be no rock exposed in the vicinity of the dam site If basalt or gneiss were to be Jund nearby  ii would be suitable as  rockfill. Impervious  fill is  probably  available as  residual
toe  upper  hill  slopes  A  diversion  tunnel  can  be  constructed  in  the  gneiss  bedrock  without and   support   would   be   shotcrete,   wire   mesh   and   rock   bolts   An   earthfill   dam   would
■pptar io be die most appropriate type of dam at thi s site.
W Giloi
' t^arn s‘,e is on the Gilo River approximately 75km upstream from the village of and 95km WNW from Mizan Teferi It is practically impossible to
v
W( J' le Accordin8 10 riw AG 1 250,000 geological map the site is in granite A cross 
•■lUcccjs'k | 5 sfl0ws the dam site to be in gneiss, with weathering to 40m. However due to the
■ 1 lhe site this deDth of weatherine is hiuhlv conjectural. The site is just coveredRESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
J. 4.5 Mineral Resources (A nnex 2 D)
Mining policy is determined by the Ministry of Mines and Energy The d
operations is carried out by the Ethiopian Mineral Resources^Develop °prnenl <rf autonomous government agency The government actively encourages CorpWat1^t
mining operations 
The Mineral Map at I 250,000 scale accompanying the ARDCO-GEOSERV report adequate inventory of mineral resources in the basin The report describes 
occurrences in detail
Development options have been identified for the mining of primary' gold at Dul, fa* Ankori and Tulu Kapi; platinum mining at Yubdo. an established mining area; and minini u placer gold in the Akobo basin Requirements for minerals development include power supply and infrastructure. .Assessment of potential sites will require detailed colour ig photographs 
3.4.6 Forestry (Annex 2E)
The project area contains about 2 2 million ha of different types of forests Although serio* degraded, the remaining stands constitute more than half of Ethiopia’s remaining (personal communication. Forestry and Wildlife Conservation and Development Nonetheless, the situation of the remaining forest resource is critical losses by exp,0ltaI' uncontrolled burning exceeds the rate of forest regrowth Neglected and exposed, the stands are threatened and could disappear with many unanticipated consequences. 1 will increase, water quality and supply will lessen, sediment discharge *' agricultural productivity will diminish (Annex 2E and Volume □ Section 4.5 refer)
rei ®n ln vcstrr,E~'
theirWlthin the pr0,eC1 and PropoM5p^J 
attainment of these objectives TK qUal,7 quantit>' of available data seriously I'*'1* existing reports particular! th 5 StUdy Porest resources was developed from *
.
was conducted in two nha.L
0Se prov,ded b v
-  previous studies in the project area Th‘
adequacy and completeness projects were formulated A
. lntenm Phase when identified resource d x
PhdSC‘ *hen ** avaiJable data
understanding of the extern H                    V1S,t t0 tbe Project area early in 1996 P 8                ' densi*’ quality, and use of forest resources
reports^ w,ewad for this Master Plan included information from the following P°Jf
1)             Selkhozpromexport 1990,
2)             .ARDCO-GEOSERV 1995, and
3)             Woody Biomass Inventory and Strategic Planning Study,                19
1A-MS-ULG BiroAkobo River Biiin Integrated Develop in cot Master Plan
86
-BASE and development options
volume n
c ikhozp
e
rornexPorl      5tud<    was      a      8e°-bo<anical    identification    of    species    and    the    ARDCO-
Tt,e ncERV   study   duplicated   information   developed   by   the   Woody   Biomass   (WB1SPP)   study GE° nventory focused on woody material suitable for foelwood at the exclusion of marketable
Despi'e  their  seemingly  recent  publication  dates,  the  baseline  data  and  satellite  imagery 
■^/to   develop   these   reports   were   considerably   older   This   introduced   a   systematic   over* U ^mation of forest areas and an under-estimation of dramatic land use changes that were then
iTins  and  indeed  continue  The  differing  formats  and  objectives  of  these  reports  obscured L, ‘"d     utility   to   this   Master   Plan   In   particular,   the   absence   of   ground   truthing   and   forest Petitory    meant    that    data    reliability    could    not    be    assessed    ARDCO-GEOSERV's    over- ^liancc  on  forest  inventories  obtained  near  roads  meant  the  stands  were  likely  disturbed,  which
f [ioduced    a    systematic    bias    into    their    analyses    The    relatively    short    lime    available    to aXPCO-GEOSERV   to   inventory   upper   basin   forests   meant   that   shortcuts   inevitably   reduced the quality of their information
The general practice of the Forest Authorities  of combining natural forest types  (slow growing) with plantation forests  (fast growing) to compute yields  introduces  confusion in estimations  of forest sustainability
Aji often repeated statistic is that 60 per cent of Ethiopia's natural evergreen forests occur in the project area In actual fact, the forest reserves  of the project area are meagre Few primary' forests  remain, those that do occur on steep land that is  unsuitable even for shifting agriculture Those forests  still intact appear to follow a sequence of increasing degradation followed by total disappearance As  is  stated in Annex  2E, it was  not possible to acquire information about forest productivity  and current forest stand volumes  due to its  unavailability  or its  tabulated i-iformation being simply  out-of-date
fen forest types  have been identified These are based on reconnaissance observations  rather then on delineations  of mapping units. Little or no provision was  made for primary  data >■01 lection and mapping Almost every forested area visited during the field reconnaissance was ^sturbed (Map 34, Land (Jse. 5999 m Volume IV refers). These observations  show that some
ren densities w ere 10 per cent of what normally should be present
a _* w not possible to obtain information about plantation forests  in the project area. Their !ineral|l ^3seilce 1S ’n contrast to much of Ethiopia, where the practice of plantation forestry  is estjy4 ? advance^ The UNHCR (United Nations  High Commission for Refugees) cites  the stock rh forest nurseries at a number of its camps Several nurseries visited contained
at ailed to match the requirements of areas for which they were proposed
be^ ^all'SC4le reforestation has taken place, but its impact on the total resource base has 
^diversT^’ addition, reforestation of endemic species, which could have improved
■Chapter 5^ ConservaTion, has been patchy. Reforestation will have to be considered seriously,
s d ‘^nex 2E provide further information and discussion) and the agricultural
e ctio  of this Master Plan (Volume II) refers
n
^'■'’cultural
?,,c^Tient   ar   rr>ana£enient   of   the   forests   is   conspicuous   by   its   absence   Watershed   and fowledc>64   rnatiaBement  is  not  pan  of  the  curriculum  of  Ethiopia's  schools  ot  forestry'  Lack 
'^cticeCOUpled     to     a      lack    of    means    and    of    effectual    national    policy,    effectively    excludes or s'lviculture from the project area
River Busin Integrated Development Master Plan
Chapter 3RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
VO«-VME1I
I
Forest nurseries have in (he past played a significant role in (he expansion of
plantations Small forest nurseries occur in scattered locations in the project area
noted, however, that those operated by refugee camps in the west of the stud
producing species that are unsuited to their specific environment
3.4.7 Wildlife (Annex 2 F)
Wildlife are a dimension of land use their numbers respond to the quality and abundar[ vegetation, water, and other resources that make up the landscape Their situation
project area is now acute, and reflects the many calamities that have beset savannah Aft? recent decades In particular, civil unrest and the proliferation of arms and refugees have u-'9 their toll. This section of the report summarises the Wildlife .Annex 2F) It describes situation of wildlife in the project area and proposes ways to improve their managemern
' 3163 art
The diversity  and number of wildlife in the project area have changed dramatically  in recent decades. Government policies, population and agricultural expansion, and civil unrest are largely responsible
The Ethiopian Wildlife Conservation Organisation (EWCO) was  established in 1965 within the Ministry  of Agriculture In common with many  natural resources  organisations  during the 1970s  and 1980s, it underwent organisational change including a period as  a department within the Ministry  of Natural Resources  Development and Environmental Protection. Returned oihx again to the Ministry of Agriculture, its present organisational structure is awaiting finalisation
The philosophy  of central government is  to regionalise its  administration, and this  will undoubtedly  affect wildlife management throughout Ethiopia. Under the guidance of EWCO, ii is  for the regions  to decide the structure of their wildlife management organisations  The method of liaison among regions  and between regions  and the central government is  being arranged, although government's  1996 Wildlife Policy  is  expected to define how this  should occur.
At    present    there    is    no    regional    wildlife    management    organisation    in    the    project    ar« Institutional capacity throughout Ethiopia's wildlife sector is limited by
<i) insufficiencies of qualified and experienced staff
(ii)
insufficient   awareness   within   government   of   the   significance   and   potential   of   nature
resources,
(iii)
critical financial limitations,
(iv)
absence of comprehensive management plans for priority conservation areas.
(v)
insufficient infrastructure to meet the needs of wildlife utilisation, and
(vi)
insufficient research or monitoring capacity at either basic or applied level
Wildlife habitat could be said to include the entire project area Large mammals conccntm the savannahs of the lower basin In that area, Gambcia National Park is bounded > n controlled hunting areas Some reports also mention a third controlled hunting area near Teferj. Migratory animals, birds, and aquatic life occur ai different densities an ^frat according to the seasonal hydrology of the basin A general impression is one of g°°d condition This is not reflected, however in the density or variety of wildlife
Present wildlife populations bear no resemblance to sightings made more than tAsO. -eS of ago. Significantly, wildlife populations show little relationship to the existing bound proclaimed areas Compression has forced large mammals into inaccessible are
TAMS*ULG Barn-AJiObu River Bksin Integrated Development .Master Plan
88
CMP<er3base ano development options
VOLUME u
r     the   policy   of   the   previous   regimes,   oi   excluding   the   private   sector   from   the   tourism industry   led   to   a   senous   decline   in   standards   of   tourist   facilities   in   the   state-run National Tour Operation and Travel Agency,
,    competing    attractions    and    far    superior    services    offered    elsewhere    on    the    African continent, particularly in East Africa, had developed apace during the same period,
(     civil   unrest   and   problems   related   to   the   handling   of   famine   relief   detracted   from   the image of Ethiopia as a tourist-friendly country.
Specifically  regional  constraints  related  to  the  project  area  have  been  recorded  and  include  a imber of basic issues.
• poor access and absence of an established tourist circuit,
lack of accommodation and transport for tourists,
scarcity of wildlife in proclaimed areas, especially in the Gambela National Park, mainly   as   a   result   of   uncontrolled   influx   of   refugees,   settlers,   and   the   injudicious siting of military training camps.
the  ban  on  hunting  past  by  Government  in  August  1993,  which  terminated  safari based tourism in the Guraferda area;
potential health hazards of the Gambela plain (Inception Report refers)
| bJ. JT l n _        ■
sfD^tlOns     the     proiect     arc<1     are     limited   to   ecotourism   that   only   tempts   a   certain   category 'sornatchT^ *>eop*e to this the limited accommodation facilities, and the project area
c ornpetition from many East African tourist destinations.
tounJC^e    a    Stcadily   increasing   arrival   of   tourists   If   these   are   considered   byr   region   of
cJ &Drn
sh owed a significant increase in 1987 .Assuming the reliability of
.    '^rivjkip    J111151      Some    political    explanation    either    within    or    outside    Ethiopia    m    is ^incr^^®1^316 anf change in, for instance, tourist infrastructure to account for meRESOURCE BASF AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
Agnconsuhtng (l<*3) showed that accessibility and availability of accommodati determinants in choices made by tourists among different parks in Ethiopia
With the presence of the OAl’, the UN Economic Commission for Africa, and international organisations. Addis Ababa has a high expatriate population (estimat °M °f order of 10 CW) With limited leisure options, there is a large untapped potential^ tounsm within the country The potential for the development of tounsm it J°r
Section 3 4 7 of this Volume i<9 Apiculture (Annex 2 If)
l0n **?
d,SQj«eJ a
The exploitation of bees  provides  a major, fully  sustainable income source for some peopi living tn the project area Indeed, the area suppons  a high level of beekeeping and here, hunting, with perhaps  one of the highest concentrations  of farmers  exploiting bees  found n
.Africa This indicates that there are excellent resources of bees and food plants for bees
The bees  used by  beekeepers  are in no sense ‘domesticated’ and arc  simply  the indigency wild’ bees These honeybees have evolved according to the prevailing climate, seasons, fion
and predators, and are better suited to local conditions than bees introduced from elsewhere could be
Species  of African honeybees  have behaviour and biological differences  compared to honeybees  that have evolved in temperate climates  Tropical bees  have evolved a specific survival strategy  when conditions  become adverse they  move to a new area, and show ur more nomadic' behaviour than do honeybees in temperate zones
Traditional beekeepers  understand that honeybee colonies  arc  mobile, and accept that the majority of their hives may be unoccupied at some times For example, a tradrtional beekeeper may own 100 hives but at any time perhaps only half will be occupied by honeybee colonies This mobility of bee colonies must be appreciated when interviewing farmers how many hives they have, and how many colonies they have are different questions
Because tropical bees  often abscond when the colony  is  disturbed, European methods  ct honeybee management are not appropriate for tropical bees This important fact explains one of the reasons why European methods are not appropriate for tropical beekeeping, and is1101 addressed in existing documentation
Ethiopian honey bees were in 1989 tk/vM r j 1 nearby countries (for example Etrvnt
lr
‘" <xlu«d bee diseases It js ostial SS
stocksofbees 
* nI,al tha‘ efforts are made to mamtain Ethiopia’s disease free
v ° **               maJ°r bee diseases and parasites ftc 'ng severe Problems because of
Ethiopia is likely to have several species of stingless bees (Trigona spp) and thedocu mentions one, the ‘Tazma’ bee Stingless bee honey is hunted in most African
Because it is available in smaller quantities than honeybee - honey, and has a very ^ur)iei$ flavour, snngless bee honey is always highly valued, especially as a medicine Hon (Anuak) near Gambela knew of stingless bees, named ‘odea’
Forest resources  within the project provide excellent forage and nesting habitat for o
a(eJ.
as well as the materials to make hives The major food crops grown within the P  ^
r<
rO gC  for
coffee, pulses, oil seeds, maize, sorghum, fruits, vegetables and spices, all provide o
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Batin Integrated Development Mailer Plan
CMP,erJp ASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
50l'Rct ' __________________________
VOLUME n
i* 0^ *
^.n the project area
f3CtOr f°r aP,Culture highly and condition, but these do
tainting is the harvesting of honey and beeswax &om colons of We>b f
bees) nesting m the wild, mostly in tree cavities, but aJw in rocks ard undentround
are very plenuful honey huntmg is widely phased it j, lJso pfactlJed whcrc
Shavt nomadic lifestyles, and therefore do not wish to own hives The products from
jTuntingarc indistinguishable trom the products from beekeeping in traditional hives 
-^ponal beekeeping is  the manner tn which harvesting of honey  is  earned out using ^nal skills, styles  of hives  and equipment It is  a susiamable. skilled activity  using
•gtajolqgy  that  has  withstood  the  test  ot  time  (more  than  2000  years  -  some  believe  that 'Xeping   first   developed   in   this   region   5000   years   ago)   In   the   project   area   there   is   a
-,-i-kablc  range of traditional beekeeping skills  The Majangir arc  perhaps  the most skilled fcrthem, beekeeping is  the main source of income as  they  have no cattle and inheritance is 
uaJ on trees and the hives they contain
AD other groups of people (except for Niter) in the project area practice traditional beekeeping tai with varying degrees  of skill A Ministry  of Agriculture survey  in 1994 revtaled that within nt project area the number of hives  owned by  individual beekeepers  ranged between 5 and SO As  described above, number of hives  owned is  not a direct indication of amount of toot
for several years  a German non-govemment organisation (DED) has  been working in Ethiopia bitaelop a hive using top-bars  and with a container made from clay  bricks, which is  almost as free These hives are in use at Ambo and Wolleta and seem to be effective from cost and ^■tional points  of view This  technology  has  not been adopted by  fanners  However -uiderably more attention is paid to beekeeper (farmer) training and the Wolleta beekeeping
" 'tlDna' ^keeping and honey hunting both generate a product that is a mixture of broken ^cotnb and. depending on the technique used, bee larvae and pupae, and pollen This 
eidl<r consumed by the beekeepers’ family or sold on to dealers or Tej makers ^ Crs 376 not aware of the subsequent value of their beeswax as they sell it along with
Occiaj industries add further value to beeswax. The main local use is to make the
^^SeCOblired cardJcs used in Ethiopian Orthodox churches Oher local products are
and cosmetic
4  of~'^ribution  of  beehives  by  type  and  region  for  private  holdings  has  been  reviewed ^ d«»ails Volume 2.2 refers} The report that formed the base for this table does.
J? questionnaire used to collect the information (1992. 1) e re
™         1994/5 could not be located and cotroborauon> ^a^r.
have the greatest numbers of beehives in the country was t>
further
i.
,,
7 ncd      ™    in    the    area    dunng    May    1996    could    not    provide    any    birther 31 lng frarne hives in the Illubabor region
P MUC 0
'     - " “a.a have been prepared using a number of realistic ^mprions »
_______________________________________________ ____ ^kobo River Basin Integrated Development Master PU®
Or I
CluprerJRESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
VOI%
tlul the                 of ElhmpuT honey is produced wlhin forest areas.
•   thu wme 60*. of Ethiopia’s forest are within the Baro-Akobo project area,
•   that the production from hones' hunting is excluded from the equation
The lowest estimate of the number of traditional hives is reported to number 2 6
e>0% the total number of hives in the project area amounts to 1,560,000 hives A m'1*10*1
SO*, of these hives produce 8 kg of honey and beeswax per annum the total producfJ?
project area amounts to 6,240,000 kg. or 6 240 tonnes of honey and beeswax per ann
The acceptable ratio of honey to beeswax ranges between 5 :1 and 10 I Assuming the Ici- value ratio of 10 1. then the annual production estimates for the project area are as follow
•              5,673 tonnes of honey which is about 50 million Birr,
•              567 tonnes beeswax equal to about 10 million Birr
The above production estimates  are far less  than might have been anticipated from ode sources of current national statistics These give levels of 25,000 - 50,000 tonnes for honey nd 7,500 tonnes for beeswax
3.4.10 Rainfed and Irrigated Agriculture (Annex 21)
Agriculture is  the main activity  of the population and the centrepiece of Governtness development strategy  This  factor is  reflected in the discussion of the Resource Base He Master Plan examines  the integration of agroclimatic  and soil data to estimate croppa* potential for different locations and conditions
The current study uses probability analysis of rainfall to predict the length of the depend^ growing season This is particularly important in this project area in view of the conjecture o whether or not there is economic justification for supplementary irrigation of crops
* ntervcntl0n *s to promote the conservation of land and w product,v'ty of lts The limiting factors in this area, as in most of the
L
v* thC " Which 50,1 dcliver Plant nutrients to the crops compared to
Ae rate at which this capacity IS  bang lost by soil erosion The investment of chemical enerp
of                0
fetilisers may be seen to be an economically robust solution cap c
creasing the productivity of much of the land in the basin by a factor of more than five.
Climate reorcAern
kve been made availabJ^from F^n°n$’ W'th'n and close to' the projeCt
. • 
mpn SC ,on
,       8-term (2 to 50 ««.) A&o-meteorological Unit database These
smshme and rainfall The dau for 2^,- °"tWy n’“ns of'^perature, humidity, extracted from the WCO-GEOSERVd 5 SU“Ons in the Baro-Akobo area have been
^.^ent period from tL mnT,(1"5) RjUnfa11 da’a «ts for individual y^ Mexeorological Office (EMO) °5 ,0 980s were made available by the Ethiopia
Summaries of station data are given in Annex 21 They include estimates evapotranspiration computed by Monteith s modification of Penman s formula a rainfall by the L’SBR method
TAMS-U LG Baro-Akobo River Buin Integrated Development Master Plin
92
CM1''’f fhe tabulated information has been rearranged by GIS (Section 3 2.of !f]Ji voJurn,
presented in map format CVolume IV refers) A subset of climate data from l|
dJfl a corridor traversing the basin from west ro east from the floodplam w the
pscos 3 -been extracted to assist with summarising the data (Table I Annex 21 refers)
effect altitude on annual temperature (mean, maximum and minimum) is an important
p* -n the selection of cropping patterns The temperature range is from about 27 5’ C below
1 1 on the floodplain to about 17.5° C at 2.500m in the highlands
erhjre peaks occur during February and March on the floodplain, but high values extend ' A^ril in the highlands Below about 700m mean maximum values are in excess of 38’C for
three months of the year There are short periods of more than 40° C. the critical value inthesis of some crops, notably maize, but these do not coincide with the cropping season
Bnthne lemperature in the lowlands is very stable over the year with mean maximum not
□Ilina below 30° C, even during the rainy season Minimum temperature is even more stable.
i  variation  through  the  year  of  no  more  than  2°  C  about  the  yearly  average  of  about  19  to
:i*C
In contrast, land above about 2,000m is  markedly  cooler, with mean maximum in the hottest period not exceeding 28° C and generally  being in the range 21 to 26’ C. Maximum daytime isnpcrature at this  altitude also is  stable through the year ranging through only  about 4’ C Strimurn temperatures  in the highlands  seem to be more variable The annual mean minimum mgts  from 15’ C at 2,OOOm at Atnago to 7° C at 2,320m at Fincha. this  difference is  quite lrgmfrcant in terms of cropping potential
•-e   effect   of   altitude   on   annual   mean   relative   humidity   has   been   illustrated   Above   about L.flm  the  mean  humidity  is  apparently  unaffected  by  altitude  and  averages  75-80  percent,  but 1-1   possible  that  values  are  slightly  lower  above  2,000m  This  may  reflect  the  mist  zone  on  the
■iijc   1   °h^   tbat    ^unber     frOm    tde     escarpment   clouds   are   higher   On   the   floodplain   the   mean <J°W    70     percent,   and   almost   certainly   the   high   values   at   Jikawo   are   an   error   in
n 8 These spurious data have clearly caused underestimation of ETo at this site
puts  of kX131!011 in refat've humidity  is  in the range of 20 to 40 per cent, in contrast to drier ^*S0M °P a However, at no pan of the basin does  mean monthly  relative humidity  rise
-th valuesr<fnt
4 c 'ear *mPact 0,1 evapotranspiration in the area Conversely.
^disea° ‘e!.aiive humid’ty characterise much of the area and it must be expected that
s °* CT0P5 will be more prevalent than in drier areas
vji
m Of W‘nd sP«d at Agaro (Annex 21 refers) may indicate an error ui measurement about l20km/day is in the "light wind” category, indicating that wind has 
> of ?the Nation of ETo Sites on the mid-slopes experience the highest monthly 
'light' . ut ' 60 km/day, generally in the pre-rainy period of March to May, but even conJn n<^ Strong gusts are associated with storms and can cause serious lodging ot
w5ClntntsTfUem loss of yield. maize is particularly vulnerable. There is evidence that
djL?*'* 01^ Wlfldspeed are casual, which may result from the method or insrumentb
I,? ■ in nvser neni°meters read either wind velocity (a transient variable, usually recorded
r
^Mtte° °lo2v °
r
S °fwind ei
V
.
f
'y.
or windnin (usually measured in km per 12 or 24 hours) or W -Itdrun. ‘s roorc important than wind velocity and its estimation m
OC,ty ’s '^ely t0 be inaccurate
----_______________ __________________________
C
^* *  Basin Integrated Development Mister PLan
¥r
Chapter 3•-
RESOURCE BASF AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
V °'%
Hour* of bright sunshine have been recorded at all 30 sites covered by this rcrxi mean value of about 6 hours daily shows almost no variation within the basin0 uniformity, there is considerable seasonal variation at all sites, with sienif
napo-transpiration and growth rale of crops 
For the latitude of the basin, the maximum possible sunshine hours vanes little fr
ant lmPac
hours daily m December January to aboul 12 4 hours in Junc/July The most actu^ 11 * recorded in the penod March to May when skies are clearest and values are mostly 8$U‘tth,r'e 1 daily The onset of the rainy scason produces a dramatic fall in bright sunshine and
than 2 hours daily on average in .August are recorded
altitude affects the annual amount of evapotranspiration in a linear manner Reference cror eyapo-transpiration (ETo. termed PET in the ARDCO-GEOSERV report) vanes 
viue$
I '00mm annually on the floodplains to 1.250mm in the highlands Of the four determinants tf ETo (temperature, humidity, wind and radiation), it is the impact of altitude on tempers 
which influences ETo
There is considerable seasonal variation in daily ETo In the lowlands values are in excess cf Smnvday during February to April, falling to 3-3 5mm/day during the rainy season In the highlands the seasonal variation is from 4.5 down to 2.5mm/day These daily rates are not hie in comparison with drier pans of the country
Rainfall data supplied by the EMO o»n*r.n
mean values from the FAO The exceotion k o.* COnsidcred morc us«ful and reliable lhan the are based on 50 years of data but only ]» daU Garnbela- since ,hc FA0
writing Many data sets are flawed bv mk ' j
5 WCrc ava’*ab*e from EMO at the time of
Gore in the project area
are flawed by m.ssmg and some evidently spurious data Wel,'*aIercd rcg'on of Ethiopia (Volume rV Map 31)
highland  zone  has  an  annual  total  r'  300111  ,0,af  rainfall  of  over  2,200mm  and  most  of  lhe
falling during storms is lost bv run-off
1 '800m,n A significant proportion of run
soil and foliage are hot is  lost’ hv  ev. ' d occasional light rain falling out-of-season when
the effective rainfall factor fERFl ^°ratJOn Effective rainfall is  calculated from total rain by 
The average ERF is  about 60 oeroL h meth?d of USBR has  been used in this  summary 
alternative is  the FAO method h. U01? rainyscason down to nil in the dry  season Tlx 
higher probability of exceed™™ 
nOtJOrLa? relationship between mean rainfall and J
evaporation loss of rain fallino o i r reduces rainfall in all seasons and hence reflects rhe
average rainfall is  about 750m™U ° S^SOn’ GROPWAT offers  a choice of method Effect've
highland (Figure 4 Annex ?i reach equal.,; ’
precipitation during Aueust^Thw
V the ,owJands and rises to about 1250mm in d*
h 15 onJy above 2.000m that ETo and effective rainfdl samc Pattern throughout the basin, with
exceeding       June       rai’nfZLX,of       rainfal!       at       some       stations,       with       M*-
the lowlands 
Ssoimmpelwe fraa!infall deficit is the d ff
ective rain exceeds 5mm daily in the highlands and 4mm °r
unng the height of the
PP’ng season but
CropevaPotr3r'spiration and effect^ ansp,ra,lon This may be expected to K
TAMS-U LG Birtx-Akobo River Buin Inte^ritcd Development Master Plan
94
less during the early and Is14
Ch»ptrrJRASE AXD development options
volume n
staple deficit takes no account of moisture stored in the root zone and liable Io hen rainfall ts first in deficit As such. it is a simple guide to the length of the nmr,
* h?Jdd not used in land classification
S
S
nnfO-GEOS^V   report   uses   a   stylised   model   to   indicate   a   more   realistic   'lenath   of T* ^ison’ which divides the basin into three zones the floodplain w  h 4-7 months the
1(
7 o months and the highland with 9-12 months
median  values  (50  percent  probability),  the  length  of  the  dependable  arowmg  reason “Te  flood  plain  is  4-6  months,  between  1.000  and  2.000m  it  is  M  months  and  above  2000m fu 3 or more months
.^(fombela plain below 500m masl, the available data show that about six years in ten.
liable rainfall is aI least four months and is therefore adequate to support one good
crop P* >ear for most annual cr0Ps From tiie rainfall data for Itang. crops would fail
£o)5t one vear in two, but this more critical situation may be the consequence of less reliable ijuntherthan less reliable rainfall
jttore about 1,000m masl the dependable growing season for annual crops  is  very  reliable and Injures  would occur only  about one year in twenty, and even longer than that above 2,000m mil In an average season and better, a second rainfcd crop should yield well during a vendible growing season of 7 or more months  This  factor alone offers  the scope for an HttBsion initiative with a target of increasing crop production by  at least 50 percent
^current land use pattern has  been reviewed to provide an indication of crop production For wtntence, the physiographic  profile of the basin is  divided into (a) floodplain and lower
.tdnont below the 500m contour, (b) the escarpment 2one, and (c) the highland zone above
Thc Russian study refers to zone (a), the "lower basin", and the Q'GEOSER.V study to zones (b) and (c) combined, termed the "upper basin’ The true
, 'Vj^nS'' ^^tly greater because the Russian study provides data for 1987, and the it excluded^ StUdy 11645 do not PerFectb' coincide so that a relatively small strip of
d      croP      *n         Baro-Akobo      basin      is      at      least      554.000      ha,      (ARDCO- Soyuz   with   Illubabor   and   Welega   together   accounting   for   three   quarters   of
•tsin  Tbe  2  Slrik?n8    observation  is  (hat  97  percent  of  all  cultivated  land  falls  in  the  upper ’•rjbitfjn  n-—^°n    ’s    that  most  of  this  is  in  the  highland  zone  and  reflects  the  high  density 
r, ^tof 9^rS On ,and above about 1,800m This  conforms  very  closely  to the national J dtiajf‘i^2 ^nt of titivated land being in the highlands  Nationally, only  14 percent of
r
^Percent ofth °Ut by  definition the highland is  44 percent of the national area and home to ^oly  6s  6 Population. By  contrast, livestock  graze more than half of national land area laik. CCni l1Vestock located in the highland zone
u PPer basin, nearly all farmers reported mixed farming with rotation >Mic^D’GE0SERV> 1995). The overall current cropping pattern has been
P °PoniA
r
18 cereals dominate the crop range accounting for 75 percent or crop
■^«?k ,r‘u’etwn | IS somcwhat greater in Kaffa, Asosa and the lower basin and less in
,
' n Aso^ ar?6Sl zones. Blubabor and Welega, maize (Zea mays) is the most popular
its Kreai
lower basin, sorghum (Sorghum spp) displaces maize, perhaps on
■‘‘Kj,.
r re  a
^ ^ility under drought conditions Teff (Eragrosris ieff). the source o
'■Lq r> ■ ____________________________________________________________________________________________
^'WAkfjk-j b: ____ ____________________ _________ — 
-- -—----------------------------------- --------------------- ---------—— — 
' er Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
Chjp(erj
i **n
**—= ■ Aresource base and development options
VOLto't11
the staple food of the highland people, is particularly important in Illubabor with
quarter of the crop area, but much less so in other zones Other small grains are preX^’ insignificant importance in the Baro-Akobo basin
Pulses overall account for only 6 percent of crop area, reflecting heavy depend
proton as in the rest of Ethiopia The spread of species is fairly wide with h field peas (Pisum arvense) and hancot beans (Phaseolus vu/gans) beine^ i ’
as much for their restorative effect on soil fertility as a source of dietary protein 7
represented but overall accounts for a mere 2 percent of crop^ The oilseed group of crops rep^ abyssinica) is marginally the most widely grown
* ’ b’
cn
y
The traditional noug «r nS
nj ,ntroduccd soyabean (Glycrne max) and ground
Availability Of animal fat would explain the small product™ d
oilseeds
The other crops  group is  rather diverse, but the only  crop of importance is  coffee (Coa.
arab  a}
IC
occupying   more   than   a   quarter   of   crop   area   in   Welega,   somewhat   less  in  IllulX
andjwy  httle  or  ml  in  other  zones  This  crop  is  the  only  cash  crop  of  importance  in  the  arl  c present  A  wide!  range  of  very  minor  crops  is  produced  in  the  area  mainly  for  local  consume “d  «  ®nch  the  diet  There  are  two  tea  and  two  coffee  estates  established  as  state  forms two estates near Abobo producing cotton
The increase in production in Welega region consequent upon the increase in cropped arais 
Wl ?’n
21 refers) Area and production of all crops except barley increased
over the period 1988-1994 and almost more than doubled
Tea and coffee estates were briefly inspected The tea was well established and plucking tables were apparently prolific m production. Some plantations had either been pruned back in oria
□ regenerate e les or had been eradicated, but the reasons for this were not obtained
The coffe estates were relatively well maintained under shade trees of the residual high fores or planted speaes, of which silver oak (Grevillea robusta) and neem (Azadirachta indca)
MMy °f rCS'duaJ high forest trces dying and all were seen io be
^l^f«TCfeSUbl'Shed ” th< S4mc time usin8 the blueprint of the successful Am^
.< e ^nns 10 nuddfe Awash, to produce dryland cotton. The average yields "
2?" “ 1? “ ™ 
' A?“h Valley wherc- in addition to ^"8 irrigated, the soils and more suited 10 “tton Average yield in the first
lhC nCXt
‘here has been a linear decline -
yield to a low of 558 kg/ha in 1994/95 and an estimated yield for the last season of 625 kgM
S     VaX*0,llS
hioh mnn^ hy
but
UDoei teX^k t SUppOrt1 _
most nutrients and
’ S 8 *0C^ °P* *
n  on
that these soils are so fertile as to su5‘^f
^PP'ementary inorganic fertilisers This may be "
’ WhlCh 8nnUa,ly receive 1 nutnent-rich silt load in the floodI
given the sandy loam texture of these middle lns Pect‘on P°mt Furthermore, cotton is a gross feede
os nutnents and Ca, Mg and K in particular ("Hunger Signs in Crops" Annex 21 refers)
TAMS-ULG Baro-AJcobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
Cbap‘erJBASE A.VD '>EVEU»PMEnon Iovi!
.
«, ntiitffily of crop yield data ,5 no, «
„ „ measunns them with any accUIa„ ?
-sriepk®.1 programme conduced bv then . WG'« of data 5U Amhcriry The .ARDCO. e    «C
-oitied     thetr     own     samGplOeS     survey     of     fam, bur rhe greatest and m°,t
volume n
———
6 ' big* on ac„„„ ,
Scnt
° f '<• grrar wm
a^
question r°ut,I,fly  by  ae‘ ?
Of
p e predominant strategy of production in Ethiopia is ox-tillace f k
jjurgw drains through the field where drainage is impeded sowL°J 
igcrtp weed-free by hand labour, and harvesting the yield The ? 0UlJ-kePt seed, keeping
23 level of production is meagre nitrogen in rainwater and fixed bv 
makin» 5in,Ple
‘°
Tutnents  by  decomposition of the generally  abundant orimarv  m;„ Jii ,^ani5™. and other agacmadaasisar a very  low level as  crop residues  XmLT?1’ “ "!c  R^i"g Pf te, is  commonly  dried for use as  a Kiel together with woody^”^*8' “* cow rd removal of straw represents  a net loss  of all nutria i es rhe harvest of grain proton which limits  yields  to the low levels  obtained *'mem* and a basic  system of
j  the  ARDCO-GEOSERV  survey,  only  15  percent  of  farmers  interviewed  said  they  practised shifcij  cultivation,  and  only  52  percent  were  able  to  fallow  their  land  for  1  to  2  years  In icnsequence,  cropping  intensity  in  the  highland  zones  is  about  70  percent  and  only  in  Asosa  is ilcw it 22 percent.
The consequence of the current levels of these factors is a potentially productivity (yield per unit area) but regrettably one which alniofl
JkI’m National annual growth in agricultural production in the ast
far below the population growth rate
nearly ?
*° acticc
JLj 0 9
increase in oft^ »
r2 ’H‘ui   cropped   area   (excluding   Tigray)   during   the   penod   1   8 TirteJio
Table 3.10 National Cropped Areas Increases for the Period I9&8-1994
River Basin Integrated Dcvdopmeot Master Man
Chapter 3RESOl'RCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
the degradation of cropland by erosion, (refa to Annex 4A and An volume)
^*n‘l'X20f
•              the use of ever more fragile and marginal land as population pressure incrw
eases,
•              the shortening of the fallow cycle (in the shifting cultivation system)
inevitably to continuous cultivation and.
'
• 
the dependency upon meat for dietary protan and the consequent relative i
of leguminous crops which enrich the soil for subsequent crops
With nearly half of the Nation's surviving primary forest in the Baro-Akobo basin i
traditional response of clearing more land, is still an option However, it should be noted
this forest mostly is on the steep slopes of the escarpment, where clear-felling is most likely- accelerate erosion, detrimentally change river hydrographs, increase sedimentation and rtx bed-levels of the floodplain rivers, worsen annual flooding, and cause decline of the honeys fishing industries which exist and could potentially be expanded
3.4.10 Renewable Energy Resources (Annex 2J)
The  Biro-Akobo  basin  has  large  reserves  of  renewable  energy  resources,  which  incite hydropower, geothermal, solar, wind and biomass energy resources.
The bulk  of the basin’s  population lives  in rural areas, hence the dominance of renewib't energy sources in the energy supply mix Of these, biomass is by far the most widely used renewable resource, accounting for 99% of the energy supply and is used primarily for coota in households
This study focuses on woody biomass, solar, wind and geothermal energy sources and attanjw to evaluate the potential contribution of these resources to the basin’s overall developmen!
Available wood fuels which consist of fuel wood and twigs amount to 251 million (onn terms of standing stocks and 12 million tonnes of annually sustainable yield The resen availability of wood fuel supplies varies from one Wereda to another Records sh°w Wereda has large surpluses as compared to consumption, however the consumption in far exceeds the sustainable yield
The total available crop residues in the basin is estimated at 1.94 million tonnes mostly of coffee husk, sulk and straws generated in small peasant farm holdings 
of agricultural residues amounted to 183,400 tonnes representing only 9% of the avfll supply This situation reflects the unimportance of agricultural residues in the ener mix and the abundance of higher quality fuels such as fuel wood
icUI
Agricultural residues have a low energy content and quality and it would be more e were recycled for cattle feed or soil organic matter (humus). It should be note
efficient
material is only used as fuel in emergencies, when other biofuels are in short Annex has adequate biomass reserves, including fuel wood It has been stressed i falling (Renewable Energy Resources) that the fuel wood reserves in parts of the ^ ? \.5CU$5ed^ rapidly and that forestry plantations should be urgently considered This subject is 1 Annex 2E
i
B  ir
TAMS-ULG Biro-Akobo Rher Batin Integrated Development Mister Flan
CWP|frJHASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
VOLUME II
i.hle s
upply o
f dun? 10 t
he
is
es
timat
ed at ab
out I
.
”5
'""S have
UKd “ &el
™’ l
n<fate
ta Ita
ux 
'•
*
«cei»»
SUMl“nt
m °!'
°f
“"
y7
a ‘OTS'
di,,y 
radu"“
™W
Son
4    2S.
15 of 333 GWh ** harnesscd for CTer*y purposes
- it-d energy potential of the basin is very insignificant and the basin is categorised as a
.wad potential area The average wind speed in the basin is 3 5 m/s which is below the
L^id required for power generation, but this does not preclude the use of this source for
f sff pumping and other purposes
^’s geothermal energy resource is concentrated in the Rifl Valley In the Baro-Akobo
•UH low enthalpy geothermal resource has been discovered along the tributaries of the Beko cJCbiheb nvers The total geothermal potential is estimated at 35 MW’ and is suitable for
.-issyand tourism but cannot be used for power generation because of the low heat content
Uli Fisheries (Annex 2 K)
Re aquatic resources of Ethiopia are based on six major drainage systems, including about >50 sq km of lakes and reservoirs and 7,000 km of nvers Most fishing is confined to lakes. :f*bch Lake Tana is the largest In the project area most fishing is carried out on the Baro Ibe around Gambela in the western part of the country
'puxunately 100 species of fish have been identified However, approximately 80% of the catch is Nile tilapia (Oreochromis mloncus), although Nile perch (bates mloncus) is 
m large quantities in lakes and rivers outside the project area
^potential yield from the country’s lakes and rivers has been conservatively estimated at 30- [onnes  (t) per annum (Lake Fisheries Development Project, FAO, 1993). Despite this On potential, the present vield is estimated at about 7,700 Uannum (Table 1, .Annex 2K
r, ^t fiS"'"1 P01’^10 achievc self-sufficiency in food. This policy includes the increase of ‘^t‘1con.s rf)nSi{rnP ’
*.£„ |W «!""
’T’ ’
P °'en'ial °f )1] ™* »T wluch .
t 0n fr°m ,00 g per capita per annum to 1,000 g per capita per year
ptr cgnj. CTa^c rc8*onal variation in the consumption of fish, which may be as high as 10
"Option
* n die sout^ and west of the country. Irrespective of such areas, the
*^per avera8e ^ntrywide consumption is well below the world average ot 11.3 kg per
^‘‘^thioo’ on to* annual production, estimated at around 7,700, the value offish
P'a is about Bin- 7.7 million or USS I 2 million,
^of k.
Sector    *n    Baro  Akobo  basin  are  limited  The  Russian  Acadamy  of
t?ion. trnX0rT1CXport’ Vo,ume «,
14, 1990) earned out a study on fishjspccies
catchC    and     Parasitology   of   the   fish   population   dunng   the   late   ,9SC^P*“ 'S    Stu<    ?nand     trade      not    available.    The    Lake    Fishenes    Devtlopmetit    PnyecL
^°%mh V not
,993)- provided a limited amount of statistical tnfotnuuoo
° f fishe™n operating in the basin together with an esnmate ofto
Thc     ^faeries   Department   does   as   yet   collect   such   .nformnon CO‘GEOSERV Study covered the fisheries sector only globally
ChipttrJ
River Buin Integrated Development Muter PlanRESOl RCE BKSF AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
ihc Rum»n Actdtav of Sococt earned out an a/ hoc fish inventory survey of an Gert d»» area tadvdes the Wettdas Burr. Halu. Ale. Didi Lalo and Savlem The of fcv Runxan rtiah tn the upper catchment in the area around Gore (presiom
'■°u^
fast (bwiag In there reaches of the riven. rheophilic (fast water) species such as 
will be found On the upland plateau, species similar to those found in the
tbodpiarn should be present Howwcr this assumption requires confirmation
In CTxnpartson to the lower catchment there is  little fishing in the upper catchment Fife, occurs co the Bare. Sur. Waber. Yabt. Dibo and Uka riven, but this is purely on a subose-J basn using traditional gear
No dxa exist on the number of fishermen or intensity of fishing in different parts of the prtwe rca or at different limes of the year The reasons for the apparent lack of fishing is due to th absence of suitably-sired, slow -flowing waters or lakes Inaccessibility of the major men nt tnhiunes  for most of their course, and lack  of a fishing tradition amongst the local ttfe groups are the other important factors The majority of groups (Oromcs, Kefa and Amhara) rt farmers and hunters and rely on livestock for their source of protein Anuaks (the traditicrx fishermen) are restricted to the Welega region and in the Weredas of Dale Wabera and Dit Scdi These groups only fish to supplement their agricultural activities
The study carried out by the Russian Academy of Science as pari of their overall ®>h (Selkhozprotnexpon, 1990) found 72 fish species in the lower basin They concluded lhai bi '■ perch (Lacs niloticus), Nile tilapia (Oreochromts niloticus) catfish (Clarias sp), Bagm
Barbus and Labco species were the most important, both in ecological and commercial terms
Fishing u» the region is mainly on a subsistence basis, both in the main river channels and of the floodplain lakes Most families that live near water fish to supplement *^ ‘
er
diverse array of fishing gear is used Traditional passive methods used arc basket traps . wood All traditional gear requires minimum outlay, less than Birr 15, and are made from materials and constructed during inactive fishing periods The drawbacks of these met they are inefficient, time consuming and some methods exploit the juvenile life stag«s
important fish species A number of Anuak fishermen use gill nets in the n'ef5
j
( )Al
,
proportion of fishermen using gill nets or other gear is unknown but it ■PP*ars ( combination of methods is used In addition, a considerable number of people simply us and line to catch fish to supplement their diet
Alem (1993) made an estimate based on the then projected population of 24,051 m a* assumed 20% of the population were Anuaks (traditional fishermen) and 50%
fishing, giving the number of fishermen is approximately 12,400 This figure is const
be inaccurate because members of the Nuer tribe are known to fish in this region fln . |Cfn is no definitive estimate of population size or proponion of Anuaks The main p °
estimating the number of subsistence fishermen in the community who use hook 
in
supplement  their diet Their contribution to the exploitation is likely to be high, P*111  d a region where food resources are limited A further problem concerns the Urge n
TAMS-ULG Biro-A kobo River Baiio Integrated Dndopmeni Matter Plan
100r
B ASE and development options
VOLUME II
[•
„ |he  area who may also be fishing This is in contradict.on with a mandate which from fishina.1x1110 ‘hC absence of fishcn« ’wardens there is no enforcement
evidence of any aquaculture-based production in the lower bum There is howler
H***' tv for s°me small-scale culture-based fisheries development on the small wrc 
'exist in the project area but this is impeded by lack of stocking mineral I: 3 whether aquaculture is sustainable in the region because of the competition from
^ fisheries and low purchasing power at local markets where the sector is expected to
**<>■
'■  -j-cr.ty  of  fish  caught  IS  501(1  or  consurae<1   locally,  either  whole,  gutted  or  filleted  A -uantity of dried fish is sold in the region, mainly during the wet season, or catches are
jotted to Welega and Gore
^Government owned, price-regulating Fish Producers and Marketing Corporation (FPMCl not operate in the project area The absence of this organisation has meant that no
oatenng information was available that could have generated an updated base for estimated reduction statistics However, an estimate of production was made in 1993 based on 1 xjsavative value of per capita fish consumption (10 kg/yr) in the Gambela area (Alem. 1993) ihjestimated total fish production would be around 1.240 t/yr
Vcther assessment of production can be gained from the records of the Lutheran World fcuaduion and the Department of Fisheries relating to the fishing co-operatives (Table 2, 2X4. Annex K refers) Care must be taken when interpreting these data as their accuracy is upect However, they do show the potential for exploitation of the fish stocks The large kefaes  in  catches  reflect  the  loss  of  fishing  gear  at  (he  change  of  Government  The iasilwion of each fish species to the total catch in 1994 from the Gilo and Baro Riven is ;’ n  in   3  of  Annex  2K  These  data  illustrate  differences  in  the  species  composition  of -matches between the rivers, but the overall importance of Nile perch to the fisheries sector is 
•rrowtrated
*   Ca,C^   *°   tbe    lowtr     ®
aro     •^cobo    bas,n     'J    we"   below   tbc     potential   of   5   000   tonnes 
A
» h  21  e$tlmated  by  Aubray  (1975),  however  no  indication  of  the  method  of  assessment
3*®- Aiobo I^3t StU<fy     haS bccn calcu*a,c<1 that the *oul r’vcr lCT8lb ot" '• f°r tbe
Carcl ™cro                   G>Io rivers combined the total catchment area of 75,910 sq km. the c ranges between 2,400 tonnes and 10,611 tonnes per annum
Supper R
J *Pie have ^obo basin an(1 elsewhere, the demand for fish is low because the local ^^Wnt ° !^itiOn f° Gnder the economic restructuring which has occurred since the
r
would°- 6 Transitional Government, FAO in 1995 estimated the demand for fish in
' ftk« amount '
nCrease 10 ,0 000
-    tonnes/yr by the year 2000 It is however expected that most
^ould probably be satisfied by production from the Rift V alley lakes
’Met •
10   Gamkf/
var cs
’    with  species  and  between  regions  The  price  ot  fresh  fish  on  the
J  djfi-   ltan8  and  Pinudo  is  shown  in  Table  4  (Annex  IK  refers)  The  table  does 3     a    hiob^s   -’n    lbe    market   value   of   the   various   species.   For   example,   Nile   perch fjjL* re&on n.r  Price (approximately three times that of tilapia) and is bought by the hotels <-/?len’s  earning'?  information  on  the  price  of  fish,  it  is  not  possible  to  relate  n  to
J S  bccausc  there are no data on fishing activities, size of catch, cos: ot eear
Offt,UipmenI
_________________________
°bo River Basin Integrated Dcietopment Master Pho
ini
Chaperr JRESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
The lack of information is a serious constraint on any natural resources d
because the value of the fishing to the local economy cannot be equ ted C'°P ’
n e ’tl tl
resources However, it is important to recognise that most households in thc a?ainsi ■<> fish better value for money than meat, being both cheaper and considered of h
value Any developments which compromise the availability of fish in the lo\v n
basin may have inequitable social and economic consequences in the Io °
Furthermore, the potential for development of the capture fisheries resource ^On’n’Ut“’*i estimated that if the various constraints on the fisheries sector are removrd^k'5 '*’ ’
could increase four-fold
3.4.12 Livestock (Annex 21.)
Livestock production accounts for about 40% of the total agricultural GDP which ' accounts for about 45% of total GDP The export of hides and skins represents the swond valuable export (20% of agricultural expons tn 1992 the most recent available fisaurei ar- coffee, lea and spices, which represented 65%.
c Prc^ckT
With  30  million  cattle,  Ethiopia  has  the  highest  cattle  population  of  any  country  in  Africa  Tb level of productivity is low primarily as a result poor nutrition and outbreaks of disease
Two main sources  of information were presided to form the basis  of the study  These art the ARDCO-GEOSERV report, which addresses  the Upper Basin, and secondly, ihe Rumr report These sources  were found to be inadequate in respect of the livestock  sector for Pc following reasons
■              ihe Russian report contained detailed information on the vegetation of (he basin, ht
failed to elucidate the actual systems  of Irvesiock  production It did not consider J possibilities  for the development of traditional systems, but was  designed to fulfil - policies that prevailed at the time of large-scale state tanning
• 
the ARDCO-GEOSERV report was very limited both in terms of basic data tfd collation and analysis of that data In respect of animal health, the information. was better, especially tn respect of tsetse and ticks
In order io address this situation, extensive research and enquiry was conduct^P fl following sources (I) MOA at the national, regional, aona! and wcreda office livestock owners and farmers, and (3) other agencies and institutions
Ihe Basin contains about 12 million cattle. 0 4 million sheep. 0 24
equines, 1.1 m chickens Canleareof primary importance, representing about > '* lhcfCnf livestock units Although there are many different ethnic groups which keep ca‘
two main systems of cattle keeping
Firstly, in the Upper Basin, cartle are kept noi only for draught but aJso tor
•       milk
•      a capital reserve,
•       a source of cash, and
•      cultural purposes such as status and bridepnee
oats,
a f ^1^
TAMS-tlLG Biro-Akobo Rher Ruin Intceriled Dexelunment Master r*l»nVOLUMF TI
. i3 Pla'n- ",here ak01” 1 5°0 °fthe cattle of the Basin arc found, cattle are not used
a'* °*m .Zu for milk and subsistence They are managed on a migratory system in response of grazing and water in the Plain
• 
cf     Basin,   feed   resources   are   the   main   constraint   to   livestock   production   In   the
l»   .   Di.in   while   total   annual   production   of   grazing   and   browse   are   more   than   adequate. p j-dtriilhuutitoionn of this feed is a constraint
and   browse   makes   up   about   90%   of   (he  overall  feed  supply,  and   the  balance  is bv the residues of annual crops, notably maize, but also teff. barley, wheat and pulses
• to Table A5c Appendix 5, Annex 2L Production of crop residues in some project
Barley. Beans. Maize, Chickpea Millet. Sorghum, Peas. Teff and Wheat) The grazing
^xirce is being reduced as population pressure, and therefore the area of annual cropping is 
l03tased The degradation of soils also plays an important part in the progressive reduction of
thefeed resource base
15 Human resources and infrastructure
Ths  section deals  with human resources  and infrastructural development in the basin The limn resources  database is  at different levels  of consistency, making it necessary  to apptetnem missing information by estimates
11 f Population (Annex J A)
j'iwraJ
•^the  present-  from  these  data,  population  densities  can  be  derived  provided  areas  of  the '^^eredas are available
from these data, population densities will be derived, thereby allowing analyses
p
0x1 * ,nfo ma *
>n l9^ daltt lrom cartographic work preparatory to the national census, in • have b®®0 released by the C.S A. These data are usually considered to be
w «Nn 15 cen| but thcrc be |oca| differences.'*
T       I  / ConPon9nt3 fertility, mortality, and migration Recent data are very scanty. ” about ethnicity seems to exist:
Chiptfr Jresource base and development options
V °L%
. a fertility panent for ntial areas of the whole country, in 1990, is avatlable ftom Family and Fertility Survey (WFS). No tnfomattort seems to be available „ 'Xt geographical level, however,
• mortality the available information about child and infant mortality for from 1990 (NFFS source) No information seems to be available about adult lower geographical level,
areas
mortality an<j *
•   migration   nothing   at   all   is   available,   the   required   information   has   to   be   denv   d
1994 census data when they will be released
ve       frot! rhe
To know the recent evolution is  of utmost importance, when so many  events  , resettlen^ refugees, war. famine , have affected, directly  or indirectly, the population of the Project Area Without the required data, the Master Plan uses  the 1984 census  data and makes  assumption about the 1984*95 evolution
Assumptions  about future population change derive from 1984 census  data Dunng the count of the last 10 years, many  things  have changed in the country, especially  mieration composite and trends  Finally, the "components  method", consisting of adjustments  to the age-sex distribution, natality, mortality  and migration patterns, has  been used However, this  is  vey problematic if applied using 10-year old data to project even 15 years into the future
The Project Area
The Project Area corresponds  to the catchment area of the Baro-Akobo river basin, which includes  an Upper Basin already  defined by  another study  carried out by  ARDC0- GEOSERV in 1994, and a Lower Basin defined and surveyed by  a Russian Team In order to calculate the population of the "Project Area", the boundaries  of the various  wcredu belonging partially  or totally  to the "Project Area" have been digitised with a G1S Then it wai possible to give an accurate geographical definition of the Project Area, i e a list of weredas. and for each of them: the area and the percentage of its  area within the Project Are* Furthermore, to know the exact location of their boundaries  would allow estimate accurately  their present population, considering only  the Enumeration Areas  (s) within the Project .Area Globally, the Baro-Akobo river basin as defined for the Project, has an area c
Present population
neople
In  November  1993  (*),  the  Project  Area  population  was  a  little  less  than  2,2  rru  1£}^s   reason5 a certain extent, the above mentioned figure could be inferior to the reality for vanO
•       the census cartography, which includes a quick pre-census. is accurate by 
•      the Project .Area is an area were many refugees used to come, particu Basin (Gambela region and Gura Farda in Southern Region) In January „
more than 60,000 Sudanese refugees in the Lower Basin, in the camps o
--------------------------------- ----------------  hoc Arc*5
(5) The Census C-artognphj consists m splitting all the nahona] territory into smaLI arras, called En 
• hesc correspond io the work of <n enuiucrator dunng the census period, of data collection tn the nc •1 approximately 1000 persons live (a few more in towns, a leu Jess in rurai areas).
(6) Reference dale for car.ogittpiuc work in the areti
TAMS-XJLG Baro-Akobo River Buin (ntegraurd Development Master Plan
104
10 to
die
, ^cre
’ urierrpASE AND development options
VOLUME n
. jlIirna, But as a matter of fact part of the real number of refugees has been
nd r j 3s residing m Ethiopia and then the} have been pre-censused in 1993 The sex 
e so high 7 that the most probable explanation is the onset of strong and specific 
ratios floWS toWards the Lower Basin
'“■"’S'occasionally, that 10,000 to 20,000 Fellatas, pastoralists who are supposed to
' "15 rnnie 3° vears agO ^Om ^’geria and settled in the Project Area, would still be living
^Lie areas of Gambela region, without being censused Would this be reality the
^graphic pressure on Gambela region would be 10% higher
cwt  the  number  of  households  was  a  little  less  than  W  million  418,000  in  rural  areas  and 1:   Sin  urban  areas  The  average  size  of  a  household  was  higher  in  rural  areas  than  in  urban 4    -  48  persons  against  4.2  Bigger  household  size  was  found  in  Gambela  Region,  smaller
■^n Southern Region 5.3 persons against 4 2.
Lower  Basin  has  very  low  densities  (9%  of  the  population  living  on  about  42%  of  the Urtifory) and the Upper Basin much higher densities
Qraniya, i e the central part of the Upper Basin, accommodates  60% of the population living a-itlun the Project Area, but on a small territory  which accounts  only  for 31% of the total, in irterwords, the density is the highest with 55 people per kmJ
A   population   explosion   has   affected   recently   the   Project   Area   and   probably   transformed ihraighly  the  conditions  of  living  which  had  been  prevailing  for  a  number  of  years.  About 400WO   people   arrived   suddenly   in   the   Project   Area   in   1985,   which   corresponds   to   a xipulttion  increase  of  35%  in  one  year,  and  most  of  them  left  the area in 1991 During 6 years, ^graphic  pressure  was  overwhelmingly  higher  than  before,  not  only  because  of  the  pressure - timbers. but also because many "temporary settlers'1 did not care as much about the land
about the necessity of taking care of it in order not to destroy it) in the same wav as native people do.
*tioriti!0lne Precauttons in order to cope with this acute problem have been taken by public 
' t?1e consequences are very serious and may be irreversible The example of
^ten S°n WherC the intensity of the phenomenon was the highest is very interesting
of h l990’ usual residents were less than 20% of the total population in the area,
^^Wretu 411355 presence of refugees and resettled households And, even if most in-
etUTned home, the population nevertheless doubled in less than 10 years
i^ese in ioa<;earS’ number of refugees  has  fluctuated considerably  from 300,000
9
/ *ing '^P ind
s
the d t0 apProximately  400,000 in the early  1990's  Then in May  1991, especially 
reti.Ol2?fa11 On ,lle f<>nner regime, over 360.000, at Itang and Fugnido, fled their
T* H hm back  home in Southern Sudan The number of remaining refugees  raised
j? fltd’ in ioq^°nlinuously- from 20,000 in 1991 to about 61,000 in January  1996 Most ot
'" JSht and crop f niainly. Uduks) and 1993 (mainly  Nilotics), critical food shortage due to
4-
ai ures’ civil war and inter-ethnic tensions in south Sudan.
rage in Gambela Region, but 108 in the 4 wtredas enure affected )
and Guta Farda
Oiipter 3
asin Integrated Development Muter ^sni
RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
One will notice major differences between rural and urban pyramids of aae
i e the first age groups, viz: 0-4 and 5-9 years, in rural areas than in urban
stronger withdrawal of the 10-14 age group, indicate higher fertility and m
areas But the still large basis in urban areas indicates also that fertility trans it i On^’ty ln very recently.
Sex ratios have not changed much over the last 10 years, in spite of the mai
occurred in the area In rural areas, the percentage of men decreased sligh
probably the intensification of an out-migration flow' from 101 males per 100 female
Urbanisation
In November 1993. the urban population in the Project Area amounted to 175 (Uf represented 8.1% of the total population, which is a very low ratio The Project Area rem '' mainly rural, and no huge town has emerged. Furthermore 13% of Ute "urban populatiorTS to live in towns the population of which is inferior to 2.000 Now 24 towns comprise a W population than 2,000 Considering separately the evolution oFthe population of the 8 towns, and Lhe rest of the "other urban areas" show the following results
Wider
st^
Big towns: it is  obvious  that Gambela and Asosa past population growth was  partially  Hue v. external and punctual events  which probably  will not occur again in the future But it does  not mean that their growth will be as  low as  the other towns  of the area. In fact. 2 groups  cf iowtj should be considered
1)     towns  with  net  in-migration,  i.e.  where  the  number  of  new  settlers  will  remain  higher  than the number of people who leave the town in order to settle in a bigger town, either close by the Project  Area  (such  as  Jimma,  Agaro,  Bedele,  Gimbi,  Nekemte,  etc.)  or  further  (such  as  Add:s Ababa).
2)       towns  with  net  out-migration,  i.e  where  the  number  of  out-migrants  will  be  higher  -Jar the  number  of  new  comers,  which  means  that  their  growth  rate  will  be  inferior  to  their  natun increase  the  2  towns  are  located  in  the  central  part  of  the  Upper  Basin.  Mugi  being  c  ose   ■ Dembidolo and Gore near Metu
Small towns: the population and corresponding growth rates  were calculated as  the between the global projected urban population and the population of bigger towns rare was applied in each wereda.
Fertility, natality
q85 t0
1^
No change in the fertility partem has affected both rural and urban areas rrem
yfli
Thereafter, the decline will be much slower in rural areas than in towns In rur   £035,
((J
decline would be: -0,2 children every 5 years from 1995 to 2020, and -0,35 from       The
2O35
3j
but TFR would remain a little higher than 5.0 children per woman in 203 -
distribution of ASFR in 2035 would be close to that observed in 1990 in
201°-
areas,   TFR   decline   would   be;   -0,3   children   per   woman   every   5   years   from
I   ^idren   Psr
then  -0,5  children  every  5  years  until  2035  TFR  would  be  a  little  higher  than
, ed
obscrV
:fl
woman  in  2030-2035  The  %  distribution  of  .ASFR  in  2035  w'ould  be  close  to  t
a
1990 in Addis Ababa
differ**1'
NaiaJity,   i   e   the   number   of   births   compared   with   the   total   population,   will   eW    of   the   3$ from fertility There will be a long delay before it starts declining, as a conseque£ aN
p DEVELOPMENT options
volume n
—---------------- ---------------------------
hution    of    «he      poPuIation      as      weU      “    the      8TOUth      ral*    small    groups    of    older    women
^U9y^ >being
s
rcplaCed by b'g8er 87011,35 °fvOunger women <*g«l 15-19 years)
,
5      tjy    11%    in      45      *ears      when      the      TFRs      declme      will    be    27%    in    fact,    CBR    will
n „nUSU from 1985 to 2010. and then it will decline sluggishly, and even in 2030-
^Z=”*^ai"bec'Me,0”U;
areas,   by   36%   in   45   years   when   (he   TFR's   decline   will   be   48%   In   fact,   CBR   will
'   inur,,,n
tinuol S
| |y   from   1985   to   1995,   and   then   it   will   decline,   but,   in   spite   of   this   decline,
" CBR will probably still be a little higher than 30U
• ie national level, in spite of a decreasing tendency, mortality is still high Its decline along
slow, among others because of the war which has been lasting until 1991, because of
cue periods of drought, and at last because of repeated and serious famines within the last 25
.n-s Furthermore, analysis fear existing mortality decline may be partially compensated by a
mid rise of seropositivity.
Ip the Project Area, it is  difficult to understand to which extent the 0 3 % missing part of the natural increase proposed by  CSA in 1984 would originate from net out-migration, and not
□die    worse   mortality   conditions   than   expected.   But   this   explanation   cannot   be   a   priori   left Hde,  so  strong  have  been  additional  population  pressures  on  the  area
1    ion   1985   to   1991.   about   half   a   million   Sudanese   refugees   have   been   living   in   the   Project lift  not  far  from  the  border  mainly  in  Gambela  region  As  a  matter  of  fact,  this  presence  has -«.td tensions especially on land, and involved a very serious environmental degradation.
ab0LIt ^OO.OOO people originating from Nonh Ethiopia settled in the Project Area 2 15 oui of 3 were affected by this movement
^ Crnde Death
‘’ c 'bt differently
Kate   (CDR),   i.e,   the   number   of   deaths   compared   to   the   total   population,   will in rural areas than in towns
areas, the decline will be continuous from 17.SU in 1985-90 to 10.7U 50 years later,
/j fars. from Jjonlrajy to what was expected, CDR will increase strongly all over the next 53ftJtk20OS v, th ’n 1985‘90 to 17 7U in 2030-2035. The maximum value will be reached
1-6U; afterwards, it will be declining i 511^ mji*
k 
of this astonishing evolution, which does not seem to be classic ^20qq neri S Cause^ bV AIDS will increase overwhelmingly: from 715 per year during
u^^ntinofis 10 more than 12,300 per year in the 2030-35 period These deaths are Ahr2/°0fthet0lal number of deaths; but. in 2030-35. the percentage may be as 
a Jor differentials by type of residence
107resource base and development options
52
0 in urban areas, the situation will become dramatic (if no cure is discovered •
years) the percentage of deaLhs caused by AIDS will increase from 715 per yea lhe
to 8.300 in 2030-35, le respectively 22% and 64% of the total number of J '"J" * ^ percentage of deaths due to AIDS will be over 50% only a few years after 2000
Our assumptions are the following, taking account of the genera! theory- of mortality 
the willingness of the Public Authorities to cope with population aspects of develo
way to reduce drastically mortality: mother and child mortality thanks to specific pro *1
(such as EPL, etc ), and also adult mortality thanks to programmes for .AIDS contST aspect of mortality will prevent the area from obtaining good results, especially in urban area”
31
Expectation of life at birth will evolve slowly  in the next few years; and then the moveme will become stronger and quicker as  soon as  rime is  going: in rural as  well as  in urban areas, s 
0,25 years  every  5 years  until year 2000, then by  0,50 years  every  5 years  from 2000 to 2020. and by  1.00 year every  5 years  thereafter In 2025 - 2030, the expectation of life at birth shculd become 56 4 years  for males  and 59.6 years  for females  in rural areas  and respectively  59 6 arc 62 8 years in urban areas
Nutritional status of children
According to the 1992 National Rural Nutrition Survey, malnutrition is  widely  spread out il over the country  in rural areas, 8 % of children aged 6 to 59 months  are: ’‘wasting’', ie. tow weight for height (*) which is  sometimes  referred to as  an indicator of acute malnutrition, 64‘i are ‘■stunting", i.e. low height for age f9) which is  sometimes  considered as  chronic, at last, -J % are of "underweight”, i e. low weight for age (l0).
Migrations
Migrations in the Project Area have been very specific over the past 10 years: the Project • has "welcome", about year 1985 (i.e. hardly a year after the census), more than ’?,ni 11 people in the same year, i.e. an increase of 35%:
• about 200,000 people "resettled" from North Ethiopia, who were supposed to settle on
lands far from drought affected areas.
about 400,000 refugees came from Sudan and            stayed in the Project Area for several.
'       " ——---------------
Thinness te^5
(8) "Wasting is a reflection on the thinness of a child, which ls indcpendeni of his/her height plover respond to more recent experiences (food intake and diseases! and. in contrast to height, a child from a bout of wasting once normal food intake and health status art re-established"
(9) "Stunting is a reflection of the lifelong experience of a child, since deficits in heigh  conunue during early childhood, with most deficits occurring in the first 2-3 years and little or no caich-up
1
thereafter"-
.        .... bemusethi"i’'ss
(10) "Underweight is a summary reflection of the degree of wasting and stunting in a ciwcl
and height deficits will both result in ihc child weighting less than normal for his/her age Bul  * child- resides in that it carmoi distinguish between long-term and more recent experiences affecting
TAMS-ULG Barp-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Masier Plan
108„ AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
l1t CEB*SE
VOLUME n
ST-'01
—-----------------------------------------------
the bulk of them left their resettlement area, or died because of diseases thev a  so ^no'vn tbat most refugees left the area or were repatriated to Sudan
io It is  *
irt i** js the reason why mots migration patterns presented above can hardly be used
jy 
.     b|em        about     the     migratory     increase     of     population     is     that     this     phenomenon from punctual events which will probably not happen again (in principle)
Hons about past evolutions as well as the future, differ very much not only 
^Trecent events which affected the Project Area over the last 10 years, but also
■ obvious that the region is affected by rural-urban migration.
the future, it has been assumed that the Project Area would be affected by a
^^'continuous and strong out-migration flow towards towns, partly in the area, and partly 
^de the Project Area It has been assumed also that the overall sex ratio of migrants would
males10 100 females 
, -ji ireas  will lose every  year, on average, about 30% of their natural increase over Lhe next U\tars  This  means  that, for example, over the 1995-2000 period, the yearly  net migratory talance will be 17,000 out-migrants  from rural areas, i.e. 85,000 persons  in 5 years  (30% of the araoonding natural increase); and over the 2030-2035 period, the number of net out- -igrints  will be 38,000, i e 190,000 in 5 years  (33% of the natural increase)
' urbui areas  will be affected by  2 migratory  movements  one consisting of rural-urban in- Eintion flows, and the other of urban-urban out-migration flows  (considering the towns  in Jr Project Area as  departure zones  for migration towards  bigger towns) The net migratory lurce will be continuously  positive, and will correspond to an increasing share of the out- miptkm flow from rural areas  from 15% in 1995-2000 to 34% in 2030-2035, the larger unis in the Project Area being more and more attractive (because of their size, public wtnnies. etc ) for local rural-urban migrants
*antre'’^ra^011 ratC have an increasing importance over the next 40 years, especially in
‘^from ^C3S' ra,e be continuously negative because of net out-migration It will 8 % Per year in the 1995-2000 period, to -0 9% in the 2030-2035 period In fact,
eas. the migratory rates as well as the rates of natural increase will be remarkably
r      SI. tbe ra,e w*ll be continuously positive, because of net in-migration It will 4)35'again!! ) L/% ’n next 5 years (against 2.9% for natural increase), to +1.7% in 2030-
Mnr ra- ■ for natural increase) So while natural increase rates will be experiencing a ^Wodoft^ 2 2 in 40 years), migration rates will be multiplied by 13 over the
ltCr6*sefr J^
"
.
X
Proj'a Vea which is estimated io be a little more than 2 million people case towards 5.3 million in 2035 and present the following characteristics
2.2% per yCar
4)0 k»ver Basin Integrated Dcv-dopment Master Plan
uri
Chapter 3RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------
•     average density 70 inhabitants per km'
•     urbanisation 15%
•     age structure 44% under 15 years and 2 5% over 65 years in rural area 37% and 2.2% respectively 
•     dependency ratio 0 81 in rural areas and 0 6 in urban areas
•     sex ratio • 99 in rural areas and 105 in urban areas The projected population increase is detailed in Table 3 11
' lri Urban
Table 3.11          1985-2035 Projection of Project Area’s Population and Densities
Population numbers
Density (persoris/kmil
Year
Rural
Urban
Total
1 Total
1985
1,630.000                     107.800
737.800                   22.9
1990
1 868,000
143,700
2.011.700
26.5
1995
2,029.000                      182.500
2,211.500
29.1
2000
2,236.000
225.000
2,461.000
32 4
2005
2,479,000
270,500
2.749.500
36.2
2010
2.753.000
324,000                            3,077.000                   40 5
2015
3.061.000
389.300
3,450,300
45.5
2020
r3.393.000
469.000
3.862.000
509
2025
3,737,000                     564.400
4.301 400                   56.7
2.030
4.107,000                     668,900                            4,775,900                  62.9
2035
4,501,000
778,600                            5.279.600
69 5
5.2 Socio-ethnic groups analysis (Annex 3B)
Introduction
The study  consists  of a field survey  of socio-economic  conditions  in the Basin and review Considerable information on regional priorities  for development among ethnic groups has been acquired
literature
TX"        °m°8“Slt,On            °f            PTOP,K            “        a            ™        or        cash        crop        ™ll,va,ton        -
♦
a greater synthesis of act' * ■
^^TShlp of a th f
^^ercrdifferentid of wealth
General trends Jn discerned
Mercia! and apro-eenn™
06 CUltivalors 311(1 "ltieS amongst seder«ary' agriculturalists and shifting
manuri"e’ or subsistence, as the mam
mPi°c °rdevetopmenr across the basin have I***
cultur®1
move by srnal] far yn
boldines to improve food^rit'v 
♦
hl ’Wands lo expand and consolidate ago by ^ow*ng more cash cropsaVD development OPTIONS
VOLUME H
-------------------------------- — 
, ,irc 10 acquire catlie, sheep, goats or chickens (even amongst sedentary 
A d iniralists in the lowlands) to ensure food security and develop a further cash
’         ggflCU
source
^^^Jtnatedly      smallholder      agriculture.      In      the      uplands,      household      size      at      5      10 and  cropland  area  per  household,  at  0  86  ha,  are  typical  of  Ethiopia  as  a
|
0W an
j  d area of GambeJa. both family size and the size of holdings is
Hbl* 312 Number Of Households, Crop Area and Average Holdings
dumber of
Household            Cropland            Average
feptn
L___________
rns-hHhfif  !
Households         Size                       Area (ha)
"424,441                  5 12
316,700
1! ||LUflVY‘ _________ —
ha/bolding
075
Y£-a
__ ——
179.060
4.59                         102.880                0.57
Median
ha/hotding
0 62
0 40
47,150
5 08
38,940                   0 83 - ---- !------- ----------
0.72
324.030
5.36                        353,340                 1,09
0 71
974,681                 5.10                        811.860
0.83
' 0.58
ftabda              21,810
4 32                         11.220                  0.51
0 46
21,810
4 32                         11.220                   0.51
0.46
lltapii
6.080,920               5.17
5,201440               0.86
0.57
tofiiii holdings, as  elsewhere, are significantly  less  than average holdings, indicating a
□rlcMskew in the size distribution of smallholdings
avera8e and median smallholding sizes are in the range 0.5 to 1.0 hectares, the
^uni size which can be managed by a family using hand tools only, although in the Eibi rC^Ons at ’eas1, many farmers own one draft animai for ploughing. As with the rest
^ccialb^ ^erea^s do™nate the cropping pattern, but the dominance is even greater,
> >n e lowlands Table 3.13 gives the cropping pattern adopted for smallholdings
T L.1
^Ofl
l^boT
Smallholder Cropping Pattern as a % of seasonal crops
__ | Cereal
- . 92% 815£ 98%
.90%
.99% 84%
Pulses
15%
O 7ilseed
2%
Other                  Total
1%
100%
14%                        0%
5%                         100%
0%
1%                         1%
100%
6%
4%
1%                        100%
6%
2%
^2%
100%
l%
0%
0%                         100%
ri%
0%
0%                         100%
u%
2%                         3%
[00%
' Wcmy- T °f
S
,lK area
are
5
S1011?  >n the greater Baro-Akobo basin Despite their cultural
^long lQ n ed together either by language or mode of cultivation Groups in the Ofie °f three major language groups, the ancient Omotic group, (a
one of the six Afro-Asiatic proto languages spoken by indigenous '%l>
< ____________________________________________________
X.
r Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
Chapter 3
< ii iRESOURCE base and development options
-
Giniira, Maji, Bench, Majanger, Sheko and Dime peoples and from which Kefa
the Cushitic (which includes Orominya, the language spoken by Oromos and re? ” deri’',ed
to the language of the Afar-Somali group residing in the Red sea coast region)
Qri fc
Nilo-Siharan group which spans both the languages of the indigenous Be J -'[|t
Shangul), Gumuz, Uduk, Anfillo and Mao of the northern regions of the b
Shangul, Begi, Gidame and Asosa weredas) and the language
namely, the Anuak and Nuer of the Gambela plains. (Fleming 1976)
Pipits
The principal cattle raisers of the highland region are the Oromo, Macha Oronio c 
Keficho and Shekicho, plus the Maji in the south The populous Oromo grow
sorghum with teff and maize as principal cash crops while the majority of the non?^
highland peoples are shifting cultivators who also engage in coffee growing forest l*
production and hoe cultivation of grains, predominantly maize and sorghum The Kefichc 
Shekecho who live in the open woodland and farmland region near the Oromo trow ?
and beans as cash crops, while the Bench and other forest peoples grow maize, godere d?
and ensete (false banana), the staple crop of the south west highland regions
Subsistence agriculture and tradeable surpluses
Subsistence economies  are the norm amongst both the highland forest peoples  who praaxt shifting cultivation, the lowland peoples  and the Oromo, who are agriculturalists  and unit breeders  Surpluses  have been recorded as  a result of the 0.5 hectare agricultural inputs programme (Global 2000 and Ministry  of Agriculture) in some sectors  of Oromjya, afthouei the impacts  have been mixed The major constraint would appear to be land size which wold imply  that intensification of agriculture and use of agricultural inputs  is  the only  viable methxi of increasing subsistence and food security in both regions.11
A general trend towards innovation and diversification of crops is striking in the highlands a particular, with the development of fruits, tobacco, wild coffee and oil seed as cash crops petty sale The aim of such activity seems to be to improve subsistence and acquire cas - consumer goods, not the accumulation of surpluses, however Grain crops and other stapes-' not generally sold for cash by subsistence farmers with small holdings unless There is an u ?
1
need to do so. Food security is paramount
In the Mrzan Teferi area where the Bench shifting cultivators live, specific cash crops & critical to nutrition are sold to buy consumer goods. Oromo farmers in Wollega, DV,e_ forced to sell their cash crop (maize) at harvest, despite the low selling price, becaus risk of significant losses from weevils (Teff, the staple, is stored instead. aS^ vulnerable to pest anack) Ln this instance, the inability of Oromo farmers t0 imprC^u5l (X facilities and fight pests has forced them into a non-economic option The priority pr£Xjuce alleviate such problems since such a situation makes it difficult for farmers <■ surpluses, improve their cash base or move beyond subsistence
|(J ,
------------------------------- --------- — 
(11 > A survey of land holdings in the Baren Akobo basin indicate that the landholdings lend to in most areas, in comparison to the Ethiopian national average. However, in considering the statistical data, ii should be borne in mind that averaging data (partocularty land holdings or
he bove
ji/t.
P fOl>t
example) gives an apparently homogeneous result wliich is deceptive An analysis of funine an ^jor areas and crops cultivated to withstand the effects of famine in SEPAR zone indicates Lhat ^*2“^ discrepancies in size of land holdings, number of ensete or godere planis owned (as a bulwark or famine\ and the number of cartJc owned per household (Kamar Tevcv and Pastore 1992)
----------- --------------------------------------- --  , _ _______________ ___________ —'
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Bodoprneut Master Planr=^
PASF A-ND DEvELOPMZ5T OPTIONS
VO
LUM
E ii
flgjge private and stale coffee plantations in the highlands which have existed
-hr pf*  ’
se tC<5
foment of the coffee industry in the 50's, currently provide a source of daily 
flC e the dev
e  jgrant labour It is noteworthy that in these areas, grains are imported in
m
forloC3
a result of the trade boom stimulated by the sale of coffee, the
^r     [han
highlanders     into     the     region,     and     the     increase     in     the     number
of
migrant
^lemc111
homogenisation of peoples and economics appears to be taking place In
jbtwre^1 a ^_o|i jr] particular, with more middle men bringing consumer products for sale in
*e sEPA ^C^ash cropS (coffee, honey, spices and to a lesser degree, fruit crops), it seems 
fX cW  °
^ihit commerce
e
ce wj|| intensify along with demands for a more cash-onented economy 
synthesis     of     lifestyles     and     activities     has     also     evolved     between     the     traditional ^^cJilivators and the slash and burn agriculturalists
p-.ffifions of wealth
ethnic     groups     with     varying     agro-ecological     livelihoods     are     cultivating     more     diverse os   for   greater   prosperity,   the   major   differential   between   groups   in   terms   of   capital   reserves 
nJ  resources  remains  cattle Amongst the highland Oromo, cattle are regarded as  essential for jluuEtime and fertilising the land and wealth is  measured in terms  of cattle owned. In populous ufaa centres, a retail market for meat has  also developed which will promote even more cattle breeding amongst those who have access to grazing and are in easy reach of towns.
’be same prestige and wealth accrues  to the lowland Nuer As  cattle-breeders, milk  (often
.‘ombined    with    blood)    constitutes    the    major    component    of    the    Nuer    diet.    These    agro- moralists   only   have   access   to   small   amounts   of   cultivatablc   land   on   which   to   grow   cereal sops.   In   times   of   drought   or   famine,   their   reliance   on   milk   enables   the   Nuer   populations   to tsnive   Within   the   lowlands,   cattle   are   perceived   by   both   the   cattle-breeding   Nuer   and   the ^cultural] st Anuak alike as the overwhelming capital resource From the Anuak perspective.
Nuer, their adversaries, are cash rich and they are cash poor The fact is that as the Anuak Je jndercapitahsed. they are particularly vulnerable to the risk of drought and famine caused
^seasonal and unreliable rainfall. Though they are well adapted to their particular tbst^ClJ| n'CflC not over ^plotting the natural resources of the area, they lack the
>hortareSerVeS an^ converi!ble capital the Nuer derive from cattle herding to withstand
jrarTL.* i
domestic
Acuities  w ' °T rUfa WOrnen in Ethiopia is  currently  under great stress  due to the
cle and a ?men *ace *n tnariaging the multiple demands  of an agricultural role, an economic 
Rested wat°meS^C r°le Throughout our survey, two interventions  were consistently 
* iJit«ino k.
t
Cr P°ints
mills These time and energy-saving devices are critical to
52*
* neir ‘npartite role
ii^Tre°*ly <jim,T'?Seven eihnic groups of individual significance in the Baro-Akobo basin, it
- biSu> hahiraiL L t0 Sencralise from a brief field survey and literature review However as nieTtt> and o lv'^es into three agro-ecological zones: lowlands, highlands forest and
eredunder th Pen Woodlancs and farmland observations and recommendations will be ijj x, *three categories
^^ral inte . °VrCfs ond Agriculture (Annex 3Q 1 and labour shortage
X.
ob o River Basin Integrated Development Mister Plin
113
Chapter Jresource base and development options
a target quota of 400,000 farmers has been set for the coming year, n is important that.
As a target q
j n the 0.5 hectare package for maize production b ta"b«w«n invests and return for the smaller holder. e
SpK, „
SSand “f Oronrlva It » P^Y
Xmers are boinfi encouraged to invest ,n agricultural credit
»*• is the first ttnte’^
”«
Fears that the current intervention price of 70 Birr will not be maintained due to market (or other forces) may create a reluctance amongst the more vulnerable ° 3 ^ll °n,l,( For the package to remain attractive, general successes will have to be rennrtJ^ ^UpS lo unfi! region for at least the first few years 
P d thWout^
Failure    to    achieve    target    yields    due    to    lack    of    reliable    extension    information    on    new varieties   or   application   of   fertilisers   could   prove   disastrous   for   future   government   initiatives   t encourage   the   use   of   agricultural   inputs   It   will   be   essential   to   match   distribution   of   inputs   w better    extension    advice    for    confidence    to    be    created    .All    attempts    to    translate    numbersol fanners    freely    participating,    into    ’quotas"    achieved    through    leverage    should    be    strenuously avoided if the credit based approach is to succeed into the future
A   further   constraint   identified   in   Oromiya   is   the   increasing   shortage   of   agricultural   labour   Au daily  wage  of  8-10  Birr1   day,  the  costs  of  crop  production  could  escalate  and  affect  the  ability  cf small   farmers   to   cultivate   more.   According   to   a   spokesman   in   the   agricultural   office,   scho: leavers   are   no   longer   interested   in   turning   to   agriculture   A   critical   problem   is   that   the   merer curriculum   and   concepts   of   success   have   propelled   students   down   the   path   of   literacy   am government  service  Education  amongst  the  middle  class  is  seen  as  the  key  to  upward  mobility and a white collar job
Food security, nutrition and communal labour
In the Gambela plains amongst the Anuak, there is both a chronic food shortage an a
of labour due to the number of men killed in wars and the consequent number of fema e
households When food is short in the dry season, women say that they are compe e as a group for the escarpment (where the Majanger live) to forage for wild roots then sell on return for maize For other subsistence food, wild roots (desen achwabe and apudo. a salt substitute) are collected and boiled up for nourishment, is increasingly regarded as poor man's food.
All   over   the   basin,   however,   a   system   of   exchange   has   developed   tn (usually  a  cash  crop  like  mangoes,  papaya  bananas   but  not  necessarily)  is maize   Ln   the   lowlands,   traditional   diets   are   undergoing   change   as   some valuable for sale than for consumption
flew
is a]s? a
Drinking   beer   has   been   described   as   ’eating   food"’   by   the   Anuak.   However.   ,   wa[eC
way of consuming water Most people in the south west of Ethiopia drink 
they find to varying degrees contaminated with soap and human waste The water <1^ as they live downstream of the UNHCR camp have detected the deterioration rhcr and asked for hand pumps to be installed The dependence on increasingly P° ler
for washing, bathing and drinking means that people actually drink very litt e * beer, araqi and coffee In some cultures (specifically Majanger). ones social o
"those with whom we share beer” Women who make the beer as a cottage in u -
__________________________________ 2______________________________5 TAMS-ULG Barv-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Mister Plan
parti J
po^BASE and development options
VOLUME II
______ —----- -------------------------------- ----—
,
becr and therefore are very interested in grain mills to be established near
jpjize         waier points are equally needed to save time in collecting water and enable
tor 1 C
more time to agriculture
■yO!^10
f foodstuffs and (he domestic economy
divisions    of    labour    and    marketing    responsibilities    within    the    basin,    men    are
[j   ler155     1     res
p nsible   for   sale   of   livestock   and   some   produce,   while   women   are   the   main
O
^ eri>lV
n
1*   domestic   economy.   (Amongst   the   Oromo,   all   crop   sales   are   said   to   be   managed
^jugeri0 Jc lraders  in Gambela, Mizan and Tepi who come to buy  produce and sell h 01401 \ods  (habasha, i e highlanders) are from outside the region, whde most markets  are jgosimer 8 wornen It is  critical to note rhe importance of this  distinction to understand the firrrffd - (hc |oca| economy  Bench women produce beer and araqi from maize for sale fccC,l<,n‘ gj^week  profit which they  are entitled to keep for their own expenditure on ^teseic  Men are similarly  able to keep profits  from cash crops  they  sell (crops  of bananas 
5^de  of  the  road,  for  example)  This  is  paralleled  in  Oromo  society  by  the  fact  that  men ^Ij   heir   maize   crop   privately   (dispensing   the   revenue   as   they   like)   while   women   sell   butter
L nher    small    quantities    of    foodstuffs    to    buy    salt,    clothes    and    other    consumable    It    is -jwrtjnt   to   recognise   that   men's   and   women's   economies   in   most   regions   are   seen   to   be OTante and should be considered separately
Livestock
Wealth accumulation in the south west is  linked to possession of cattle. Amongst the Oromo, tfe’en. Bench, Keficho, Nuer, cattle are paid as  bride price to the family  of the bride Hwefore, accumulation of cattle is  regarded as  socially  vital for the payment of bride-price ioi in providing access  to oxen ploughs  Cattle are also important in providing milk, butter and ikiiu for domestic consumption and in generating by-products for sale in local markets
■■’the   poor,   even   the   Oromo,   the   price   of   mature   oxen   is   prohibitive   (800-1000   Birr)   To ^trswith   small   holdings   who   are   not   able   to   acquire   new   land   nor   expand   the   extent   of   their
' ings. this acts as a further constraint to agricultural development
at id protection of the catchment
forest        ^ave        been     named       43        Abobo     Gog     Godere,     Sele     Mesengo     (all lOrotnoj   si   Gurrafarda   (Bench)   Sheko   (Sheko)   and   Yeki   (Shekicho   area),   Saylem   Wangus, ^iaiiof!^0          ^bu       (Cfromo)       and       the       Gambela       park       (incorporating       Anuak       peoples)
influent w
l ° re®’5trai’on °C private indigenous forest for purposes of community
3,ts$ h sho Id k VC l° ta^e place lhese grOlJPs who hav£ traditionally managed these
llarsagetnent poj ■ anl'c’Paled that there may be active rejection of these registration or
to CieS loca( People who see the action to register "private indigenous forests" extract control of the resource from their hands
. settled
ia ^ is co’ Meen’
Be nch, Sheko in the forests near the large coffee
on a ered to plentiful Shifting cultivators in their swidden cycle deforest
ir^ ^Ol*a[jaysa .Ua' basis, converting it to agricultural land while the depleted land lies forest and kRh’ COriflicts are developing between the honey producers who "own"
kleJ^s poticid 016 cufovators in Shekicho areas which must be arbitrated by the Peasant '() the relatiCS IPUS^ be carefully laid down now as population pressures increase to '■‘tiJetj11’’, Cases, r'8hts of access of shifting cultivators to honey producers in the forest
1 “oth Xjy* be members of the same group, though apparently the highland r   3 and Oromo, have emulated the slash and bum system of rotating
r%-
_ ________________________________________________________________
K
^ Ver Buin Integrated Development Master Plan
Chapter 3RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
cultivation in the forest regions) The beeswax and honey export industry de existence of bee forage and forest so the cost-benefits should be calculated and^^ °"'
both the communities and the authorities in determining land use prionties and ni I
Vo >
forest
ann n
’ 8forh
A possible complication of any agro-forestry scheme in the heavily populated and a
regions of Oromiya would be the problem of land shortage The prospect of conv • tSe
of a field currently used for subsistence grains to agro-forestry would imply that a^'"  ’
8  Pt
of income would have to be found to compensate farmers in cash terms for the v"?*
produce lost.
**
The  Ethiopian  Forestry  Action  Programme  of  the  Ministry  of  Natural  Resources  Devcl
and Environmental Protection cited the total lack  of community  involvement in plant community  woodlot schemes  as  a main reason for failure (1994) According to this  stut the past woodlots  have been established without community  consultation or agreed denying access  of the community  to their major resource base Donor initiatives  to establ-sa community  forest schemes  on scarce communal grazing land also contributed to a* unpopularity  of these schemes  An additional factor cited was  the ambiguity  surrounding the current land tenure system: "Insecurity of tenure has made farmers unresponsive to proposed tree planting" as  adoption of these schemes  would mean" an initial loss  of agncultin production, for which compensation schemes  are not in place" (ibid) These deterrents  shawl be carefully  examined and socio-economic  incentives  created which would reverse tte perception and encourage the development of community managed wood lots
Disincentives to self- managed development: the impacts of NGOs
The achievements  of one NGO in the Metu region in infrastructure building (water supply, schools, roads and bridges) are remarkable Similarly, another NGO has built proiected spring: in many  rural and urban centres  Nevertheless, the impact of NGOs  has  been to J 
dependency  on  government  or  government  subsidised  agencies  to  provide  basic  serv,ces   'c
charge The priced water from hand pumps in towns (e g Gambela) has been success d
created  demand  in  nearby  rural  areas  (e  g  Bonga)  where  people  seek  clean  water  n sectors, the same problems of subsidy and lack of community involvement apply
Conclusions
Despite the time restraint and some uncertainties about data, the study acquired consi
information on regional priorities for development.
WTiile acquisition of new land is not perceived to be an issue by most forest
critical problem in the agro-ecological zones of open woodland and farmland wwc forested the stresses of overpopulation and overgrazing Shifting cultivators living in the
regions continue to slash and bum new tracts of land according to the
cultivation and fallow However, it seems essential to address the conflict
conservation and agricultural expansion now, before undue encroachment takes P wealth of forest is destroyed tn Oromiya, in particular, due to the scarcity of ne'V j g big^
|
d fix**
tlx
Jn
are leaving the farms to take up remunerative wage labour elsewhere or PHr education in the hopes of white-collar employment in urban centres
Subsistence agriculture remains the norm in most communities, though more crops are being cultivated to meet the increasing demand for consumer security, land tenure and wealth creation (mainly through the acquisition of ca
TAMS-C LG Baro-Akobo Rher Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
|
j 1*
116a se AND development options
X* --------------------
volume n
of small landholders However, there is an awareness of the need for fertilisers seeds in most areas, combined with a willingness to pay Agricultural
ah through Global 2000 has proved successful in Dembidolo, for example but it is that the transition to surplus creation will take place as a result of these
itt* •'** C ns alone. Improved extension using video and other media newly designed storage morc specific monitoring of new seed varieties will in the long run contribute to
pint* confidence and investment in the sector
^an health (.^nnexJD)
ter Plan proposes10 deve,°P the wa,cr and natljral resources  of the upper and lower \kobo river basins The population of the area is not static persons displaced by the
* #*I emergency of the 1980s and refugees from Sudan have caused wide fluctuations in ^non number beyond that expected of normal increase In recent years  health policy 
have  affected  the  way  that  health services  are  administered to the  public  These ' ...:e5  intended to cause an increase in health service availability. The implementation of at Mister Plan, particularly those aspects that relate to reservoirs, irrigation schemes, and xiis, will increase the frequency of some tropical diseases On the other hand, increased ,31a availability and quality will reduce diseases that relate to sanitation and cleanliness The iraiKt can make positive contributions to health in the project area by assisting the availability cfbeilth services.
iiTM/ Health Situation
fx Master Plan project area covers a wide area Differences in topography, hydrology, and taite affect the kinds of diseases present and their prevalence Ethnic differences among the xoJation and differing attitudes towards cleanliness and water are also important Clean
■‘ittr is not available to much of the population
Aioie
^a, respiratory tract infections, and intestinal parasites are among the top three leading csnnto°i Oulpalienl v’s’,s 'n zones Helminthiasis, amoebiasis, and giardiasis are the most
-if. n
intestinal parasites Data on .AIDS are scantv, but appear to relate to an of tuberculosis.
-          -° b ™ diseases include Trypanosomiasis, Onchocerciasis, Yellow Fever,
r0
loosed inf Malaria The project area is associated with most of the cases of
placed bjr100 ou,breaks In tsetse infested areas, the resettlement of persons 
*“digenoii F0U^it *ntroduc<d new health services to the area but these were less available to
n
' J ‘n*porTa°PU*a,'°  Continued surveillance, diagnosis, and treatment of
infected human
' tlc°°Uins a3™    Contro* disease The livestock programme prepared by the Master
Proposal to control tsetse fly by managing the environment
T? *$ e?dcmic. especially in Illubabor, Keffa, and Wellega in southwestern ? 0 blindness resulting from the disease is 1.35-15 per cent Migration and
alone • n su&8ested as vehicles for increasing the rate of transmission in Ethiopia. -:^lf0rthe flv nVerS like thc Bar°. wth its forest-shaded, rapid streams provide suitable
diX°r MaSter Plan developments in these areas could attract people into
x 'Olr of PotenS0?Cd *n
late 1950s in Asosa The abundance of vectors and the wild
° sts- extensive population movements, and acceleration in a scape
0  River Bmin Integrated Development Master Plm
117
Chapter 3RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
--------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------- -----------
change present conditions  in which the disease could increase There have h
cases of Yellow fever since 1966
Schistosomiasis is a 3-factor disease that involves pathogenic schistosomes 
aquatic snails, and man It is a socio-economic problem that has its roots in C<naJri specif and the persistence of certain customs and habits Its control is through thtT^^
and abundant water supply, construction and use of latrines, extension of prima^^ ' strengthening of community organisations to encourage control activities car'Tt Caresen^i, design of irrigation schemes, and careful follow-up treatment of n^t,, ^^ion J 
labourers and settlers 
e een no co^
5 011
arrived, infected
In 1996 the Ministry of Health devised improvements to the existing ^ea
reducing the 6-tier system to one of 4 tiers health stations are to be replaced V
and health posts assume a new structure and catchment. Health centres vU
present but their catchment will be reduced to 25,000 Under each health cenere ]00J#; health posts As the centres were originally planned to cater to the n
population, the new structure will require they be increased four-fold
The    frequency    of    malaria    is    about    21/1000    persons;    its    fatality    rate    is    about    JO hospitalised   adults   and   up   to   33   per   cent   in   children   less   than   12   years   old   Althou   V   ’’ a    seasonal    disease,    Master    Plan    developments    could    cause    it    to    become    active    th^Jh15      “j* year    The    draining    of    stagnant    water    bodies    and    filling    in    of    hollows    and    borrow    XV. important    element    of    its    control    Early    detection    and    prompt    treatment    remains    the    corners^ in reducing morbidity
Nntriftut
Malnutrition is  a problem. Eight per cent of children aged 6-59 months  are wasted, 64 per ck are stunted, and 48 per cent are underweight for their age Strengthening nutrition rehabilitation within the auspices of existing health institutions is required
Sanitation
Rivers, springs, wells  and lakes  are still major sources  of domestic  water supply  in the project area. The majority  of the population use unprotected sources  of water. Unsafe witer contributes  to the frequency  of diseases  that are transmitted in human excreta which rs  the leading cause for out-patient visits  in the project area Skin infections  and eye diseases  arc  aiso important.
Health policy and services
Ethiopia's national health care system employs a 6-tiered range of services ranging ^"orri posts (the bottom) to central referral hospitals (the top) Current health posts are exp
serve a minimum of 1,000 population. Health stations, the lowest level operated
Ministry of Health, are widely distributed Each station is staffed by 1 - 2 health aSS^ stiiT
nurse), and serves at least 10,000 population The range of services and qualified10
increase according to rising hierarchy of service
- " u a it h stnJctb‘
post*
Impact of Master Plan
andinf? *aTCr
The impacts of project development will result in perennial bodies of st
canals The developments that result will likely attract new populations, some .sease
introducing new diseases to the area Project design provides many 
s Jio‘Ja
opportunities; increased health services provide another Immigrants to t e
-
J
TAMS-ULG BirO’Akobo River Barin Integrated Development Mailer Plan
118I
BASE an» development options
xbce
VOLUME II
, nroved diagnostic services may be required to identify and treat some of the u Associate with water Services will have to expand in line with the new Ministry 
’ but the amount of expansion will depend upon the number of people who P°' • h Mea and upon their natural increase
'“ ter ,nW
,
-
I^*eD<L j
, gfraslruim"s             (J" "
11
-
!C/
is concerned primarily wnh three elements of infrastructure, which sene both the
I O n and the population of the towns  and small cities  of the Project .Area roads,
■teal   electric   power   A   fourth   element,   ports,   is   touched   upon   briefly   but.   because   of   the role of the two river ports in the area, little is said about this element
TLnon    on    the    current    road    network,    ongoing    construction    activities,    plans    for    additional vements,   planning   level   costs   and   the   organisation   of   the   road   sector   has   been   obtained
range    of    sources    These    include    prior    studies,    mapping    at    scales    of    1:250,000    and HOOOO,    documenls    obtained    from    the    Ethiopian    Road    Authority,    inter-views    with    members 
/tie Ethiopian Road Authority  and quasi-private transportation enterprises  and, most njoitintly. field observations  by  member of the counterpart team The primary  source of rlbrnition on cunent plans  for road improvements  has  been the Road Sector Development pigr, covering the 1997-2007 period, which was  recently  prepared by  the Planning and ^gnmming office of the Ethiopian Road Authority.
The information obtained from the above sources reveals that the network of trunk roads and najor link roads in the Project Area comprises a mixture of all weather roads with long
itrscnes of unsurfaced roads that are serviceable only in dry weather There is only one arailly paved road in the area at the present time, which extends from Vfetu to Bedele This 
'^passes through the centre of the Project .Area and forms pan of what has been designated 11 1 funk road linking Gambela with Jima and Addis Ababa There are two other trunk roads 
or penetrate the Project Area, one in the north that links Asosa with Nekemte and Ababa via Gimbi and another in the south, which joins Mizan Teferi to Tima and
ittondJ  Ababa The trunk roads are complemented by a series of major link, or t    rOads Together with the central trunk road, they form three east-west routes, two
ti:ra"s^ L
fr-earea fi- f°?tes (°ne which is incomplete) and a route that cuts through the middle of
0
'^luiy  °
s
m nor!heast toward the southwest Not all of these road links are usable during
8500 some require four-wheel drive vehicles even during dry months (Annex
-hat argC network is supplemented by a system of regional roads serving wereda c ?*na] road °n tbe ma*n roads and the many small villages in the countryside The
[^Points Consists of roads that serve a number of villages or productive units and
fnav d ' bas'C network and purely local roads that serve only a few settlements or ^•’’uilt ill Cnd withou* linking with another road Most of these are dry weather
l  W standards, poorly maintained and in generally poor condition, so 'h. These” J much °f ^e year Indeed, some are little more than two ruts penetrating
4^’ ^naog .,a s are seldom raised above the prevailing grade, lack ditches and have few,
a °< pasmM *° °
In
cases, the lack of bridges means that if vehicles are
g * tbe ford*. or if rivers are too deep as a result of rain, the roads are closed W PrioXdS Cannot reach their destinations While the upgrading of the basic network 
* **
s.
Improvement of key feeder roads and local roads tn the regional network
° n thc basis of toe number of people served and the consequent level of
— _   -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - --------------- - ----- ------ —
Chapter 3
River Basin Integrated Development Master Planresource base and development options
benefits  Also,  as  development  proceeds,  certam  regional  roads  may  be  upgraded  t0   the   s„. of major link roads
The Ethiopian Road Authority  maintains  several permanent traffic  count stations  within, Protect Area which showed low volumes  even during what is  considered to be the high ™ 
period ranging from 41 tol77 vehicles according to different road length (1993)
<1;
Since the  February  figures  are  believed to reflect  a period  of  relatively  high  traffic,  they  mav   v, considered indicative of a rather low level of overall economic activity within the Project Ate,’
Information on airports in the Project .Area has been obtained from the Civil Aviation Authonu and Ethiopian Airlines, which appears  to be reasonably  up to date This  information indicates that there are 6 operational airports in the Baro-Akobo Basin, plus another 3 airfields in or net the basin that are listed as  " active but not operational" The salient features  of the h operational airports are as follows
As the first four airports listed above, the number of arrivals and departures shows either little change or a decline in recent years  While the Project Area has  been the scene of border disturbances and large population movements during part of this time, the impact of this unrts upon travel to and from the area is  not known and some of the lack  of growth may  be attributable to the lack  of sufficient seats  on the aircraft flying to the area Because only  the airport at Gambela has a runway with a hard surface, the choice of aircraft to serve the other airports is limited to a type that can accommodate very few passengers and flights are often fully  booked Nevertheless, in spite of this  limitation, there has  been a steady  and significant nse in the number of passengers  flying into and out of the last two airports  listed, in w southern pan of the Project Area
Ports and River Traffic
f16
^ VCTS have been used during periods of high water for tlx
8OOd5r° ,hC Sudan beTwecn P°rt f8cilities at Jikawo and TirgoL in Akoi»
a ecause o unstable political conditions and a changing economic environm®1 owever, commerce between Ethiopia and the Sudan has virtually disappeared and is unlike-'
• ^PrPeark‘In ?C Sam! f0nn Furxherm°te. use of the Baro River for the movement of cargoes easi e unng the dry season, because of inadequate water depth Jikawo was
Fbialk T yT 480 ind ’tS $ilC is undcrstood <0 be, at least temporarily, aband^
A^L °
r
ad u C?ITCnd> ^ng t«ih which will, hopefully, provide a year-round h
t^X0^° Th °f Gambc'a’ aDd T,r«o1 ,n ™ these developments, there
Front ‘ h UfC °r m Cr transPorT’ °frier than for the possible accommodation of I
Except m that com™, 4^
Electric Power
M ordered linher
..
Virtually all electric power throughout Ethiopia is provided by the Ethiopian Electric L 8^,. Power Authonty (EELPA), a government-owned utility Information on the PrcS^reCtor o* system and future plans has been obtained both through discussions with EELPAs.^I4 tM1 Corporate Planning and a review of earlier study documents These sources in demand for electric power is rising at a rate between 10 and 11% a year albeit it U’
the levels forecast several years back Peak power output takes place around chnSt^s tobf now about 300 MW. nationally Demand is evidently restrained by supply, so there se an unsatisfied demand for another 60 MW at the present time
j$
TAMS-VLG Baro-Ako bo River Bia in integrated Development Mister Plan
120
CMP***^BASE AND development options
VOLUME U
□^o-.Akobo Basin, most of the towns with electric power are served bv small diesel iiilu":h, “L plants There is no overall electnc power network Typical of the plants in the
f riiy drod are the small hydroelectric installation of ?IO kW that serves Mizan Tefen or the
ArCt Asosa This operates on a shift basis and because of its limited capacity acts as a Je*1 “"''non the amount of water provided by the town water system The only larger system
u r js one that draws its power from the 5 MW hydroelectric plant on the Sor River
^sGambela Dembidolo and Metu A recent planning study prepared by the National planning Institute states that 42% of the people in the Gambela area have access to
wer but consumption is only a fraction of the available capacity (That study notes {lertnC families dwelling in houses with thatched roofs cannot apply for electric power This 
iSJ *lect a concern over potential fire hazards ) Plans have been formulated for expanding
3U '* of the Sor River plant to 10 MW but. given the excess capacity that is available.
rLK intends to first extend to first extend anew 132 KV line to Bedele before undertaking
in* expansion
ktfor targets and planning
The Ethiopian Road Authority has recently issued its Road Sector Development Plan which cuiines targets for the lOyear period from 1997 to 2007. indicates priority road projects dunng topenod and notes the sources of funds for some of these project Funding has been secured fir a little less than 12 % of the 10 year program, though commitments have been received for ujoLhcr 42% Thus, funding remains  as  the chief constraint upon the Development Plan Priorities are set forth in this document in the following order of importance
access to ports
access to existing resource areas
access to new resource area
access to food deficit area
balancing the distribution of road infrastructure among regions
J ne with these priorities, the Development Plan sets forth a number of ongoing and proposed ? CCording t0 whether they involve rehabilitation, upgrading or new construction and
C r °a^S tnjn^ roads» major links or regional roads Projects are also grouped into
CaC^1
i s year long Within the Baro-Akobo Project Area, the
n 8 ^ad projects are included in the Development Plan:
No road ^
s
ha  b,lrtatI0n of 1
Trunk Roads
Adfl
$ Ahikthe Baro-Akobo Basin are included in this category, though both the road from
We) ? l° Jinuna and ^e road form Addis .Ababa to Gedo (60% of the distance to e •ncluded Financing has been secured for both these roads
of Tn.nk Roads
234 km
Gravel to A.S D.
Gravel to A S D. Gravel to A.S.D.
196,454.000 Birr
190,819,000 Bin
253,703 000 Bur
Wr—__________ ___
ChiplerJ
^°bo River Basin Integrated Development Mister Plan
121RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OP TIONS
VOt^Ei|
, w-Vpmte to Gimbi and from Dembi to Bedele. which are outside u
t
alsT’proposed for financing in Phase I (Phase II includes no roads in the
Area)
3              Upgrading of Major Link Roads (Phase 1 includes no roads in the Project Area) Proposed for financing in Phase n
Gambela -Abobo 82 km Gravel Ill-Gravel 1
30.463.000 Birr
The road from Nekemtc to Bedele, outside the area, is also proposed for upgrad’
4.            Construction of New Link Roads Ongoing  -Phase  1,  finance  secured
Gambela - Jik a wo Wacha-Maji
120km
135km
70,300,000 Birr
114,477,000 Bin
Proposed  for  financing  in  Phase  II
Abobo -Godcre 150km
Gravel
Gravel Grave)
138,990,000 Bin
A  road  from  Asosa  to  Guba,  north  of  Lhe  Project  .Area,  is  also  proposed  for  financing  in  Phase n
The Road Sector Development plan also sets  forth a 10-year investment program for regional roads. It is  broken down by  regions  but does  not list specific  roads  and. since the Baro-Akobo Basin includes  partial regions, it is  not possible to define how much of the program may  N allocated to the Project Area.
°°m° 8“'ra,l!td f- ™d a™,.
POptdatio11  ^n-wid  target for the end of Phase!,
h
e
include     renin,     5       *n       gO0<I“     condition
The     PI?     a     P* "     square     km,     with     about     6B
1
fOadS     lS ln
*     ^«ung to
T Sp«ify whtther or these
only the tn l                  ®-73 km per 1000 nr.
65 15 about
tbaI roac* density in the Project Arua:
estimated ,roads major links  are takenat‘°n 222 km PCT I-000 s<luare "
considered ° ^*/n 8ood' condition at the ” ° aCcount Some 59 percent of these roads  ire
X
y 90 ^em
thl roJd ^nSu rty of the Ethiopian E ? ?'t,On)
indeed, if trunk roads alone
if only those roads which art he
,he Pr°^ ^ea do* AUth°rity Adored, the density and qualm
W^mateiy 1>490
constJrtPerCen'1.may           **       ^'dered^in nstruction or being rebuilt At
The m d
lhe   road   projects   included   in
have been found
are ST"“io. link 
oassine th 3 ?“fersh 0 forest remaining °
an^7    ■    ntFaSt     t0     this      P'cture    is    the    e’t.    ’    exceed-    tJle      national    targets    for    Year    2002.    1"
- 2^
P
with regard to the re/ona! road systems Of
S          have          been           identified       in       the       Project       Ar* gWd condition, while another 11 percent are
P^ent are found to be in poor condition
prog™,m outkned
EW
*»
e
UI i Potential for the destruction of one of ike
parstng through areas of sev„„al^,’™”S “ 'he B"o-Akobo Baatn that an alren.at.vr >«"'
______ _
&nh'r ““"k is WB'™* >
“Ch*P,<rJ
TAMS-ULG Bai'O-.Akobo River Ba*tn Integrated Developm
ent Master Plan
122aNP
development OPTIONS
VOLUME II
-------------------------------------
already proposed by the Ethiopian Road Authority, the above figures 
v0( id [he f edition of roads in the Project Area suggest that few, if any, new trunk 
■jo** detisW 8n(3          /i| be needed in the early years of the planning period instead, priority
rehabilitation,    improvement    and    possible    expansion    of    regional    roads ^be    8iven     t0      t    un^rading    major    links    that    are    currently    dry    weather    roads    and    serve $ • ™nh °f
Fu<urtl ^en received to date regarding plans for future airport improvements The
S)nn»tion *’*’ Tbv NUPI for ‘X50sa docs note- however-tha’ "H**1 servin8 ,hat Iown
since it occupies a site close to the centre of the urban area, where
alined to be rel® *.
c
is rapidly increasing
’ in value and should be dedicated to urban uses 
Itas in flit Electric Power Sector
tithe national level and international level, regional interconnectors  have been the subject of zsenl studies  These have included connections  to Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan and, possibly, fayi Hie regional interconnector to Sudan was  found to be technically, economically  and feudally  sound and could have an impact on the Baro-Akobo Basin but, because of political jeers, the emphasis  has  shifted to improvements  within Ethiopia, itself, and this  project is  on
»H  In  addition  to  the  132  kV  line  from  the  Sor  plant  to  Bedelc,  which  is  mentioned  above, im   are   plans   to   extend   a   132   kV   line   to   Gimbi   from   Gedo   within   the   next   2   1/2   years tmxsr  small  diesel  plant  is  expected  to  be  installed  in  Tepi  in  about  2  months  and  the  are Tins for a diesel set in Gidami.
I: the pcst-2000 period, it is intended that the interconnector
wlilies in the Baro-Akobo Basin Detailed planning for such an
wpletion   of   the   Integrated   Master   Plan   Study   itself   and   decisions lining of hydroelectric installations within the Project Area.
locat O
j n siz  and
e
------------ —_____________ _—
Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
171
Chapter 3-
RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
SUMMARY OF DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
4.1 Introduction
The development options reviewed in this section are grouped under four headings
1.   Water Resources
2.   Natural Resourcesand Agriculture
3.   Rural Infrastructure
4 Environmental Action Programme
Possible interventions  under each of these headings, are reviewed. The list of possible interventions  is  not exhaustive, but it does  represent a synthesis  of the interventions  which, in the experience of the Consultants, are the most likely  to succeed under the conditions  of the project area.
In assessing their suitability; the interventions  have each been scrutinised according to a comprehensive checklist of criteria, as  set out in Table 4.1 The checklist contains  10 main headings, with explanations as given in the table.
Table 4.1 Checklist of criteria for interventions
Basic data
Description
Impact
Capital costs Recurrent costs Employment generation Inputs and outputs Land requirements Applicability
Public services
y d thj
nla^n
rath^lT ar'd cnvir°nmental impact are treated on
p,ann'n« process,
Mdinfi Under latter^311 ** ’,ems ,haI ^r0^ed together uoder *
,atter Yemeni, these issues Tend to be 'ignored in the
Precise evaluation criteria have not been set, apart from those defined in ^“P^^abiiity) report (economic and financial viability, sustainability and environments Nevertheless, a review of the acceptability, risks and impacts shows that m interventions are simply unlikely to be successful on these grounds, and m 1
2 of I*1'5 p 0S$ible
is priv4^_
aimost    certainly    better    not    to    include    them    in    sector    plans.    Both    Governmen^    nuntb€r     0 sector resources are limited, and it is far better to concentrate on a lm11
TAMS-ULG BaroAkobo River Baiin
124ntial interventions have nevertheless been included in the review although [o* P ’^^ from the sector optimisation process There are several reasons for
0
'whv certain interventions have been omitted
''’^^se that although in the average conditions of the master planning process, certain ' P ^niions may be inappropriate, in localised considerations they may be possible
^
C|n
f e transparent the constraints that make some interventions inappropriate, so that an
*             —• ♦!,* a-rtnetrainf^ that make
inferuentinne
_
1 ' is possible of the potential interventions if the constraints can be removed
^ittogsise Lhat other planning authorities may evaluate impacts differently, and wish to
' ^eedwith interventions which are judged unsatisfactory by the Consultants 
, ntcognise that conditions change over time, so that what is unsatisfactory' now mav be
adstactory at a later date
t: Water resources
til Water Supply (Annex II)
ft apply  of appropriate levels  of safe drinking water to ai least 95% of (he urban population oi W» of the rural population, according to the WHO standards  is  the current policy  of the -j^piin Government In order to meet this obiective. a sludv was earned out based on
25 litres per capita per for rural water supply schemes.
4 ^able 4ST Whereas river is the most probable source for the larger towns if
n a reasoj^bie transport distance
ater .Stances the use of spring water has been abandoned in favour of
e to the low unreliable yields and/or because of the risk of contanunation
9 ■»<resource base and development options
V °UMtu
4.  reliable source of power is essential for normal development of water sum.i
L PP'} sou   .
rce!
Institutional development is another basic requirement for proper fob
development of these services 
‘ Ioni,lg and
Future water requirements and peak water requirements were estimated for the u h
rural populations, For the urban population it was assumed that water demand would
from the present levels to levels compatible with those advocated by Government noli CV°'Ve proposed net average levels are given in Table 4.2
Table 4.2 Proposed Average Water Supply levels (lit res/day/capita)
The   above   are   net   values,   excluding   losses   and   large   water   consuming   industries   The   towns were grouped according to their projected population by year 2015 as follows:
Main Cities Medium Towns Small Towns Villages:
Population of at least 10.000
Population between 4.000 and 10.000
Population between 1,000 and 4,000
Population less than 1,000
15
Tlie number of towns found to be in each of the above categories were 9 mam to
medium towns, 28 small towns and 7 villages. The population projection used were
projected by the present Master Plan as discussed elsewhere in more detail in Annex 
Population Aspects
The projected net daily  requirements  for the anticipated populations  and water “PP expressed in cubic  meters  per day, are summarised, for each category  of town, in Ta e given is the number of wells required for the urban population as a whole.
Table 4,3 Projected Net Daily Water Requirements (m )
MamJLowns^
Present
1,354
2000
2.594
2015
SJ54
Medium Towns 
Small Towns 
369
267
18
625
45_L
26
1.622
1,231
Villages
50
Total Urban
2,008_
"N/A
3,696
No. Rural Wells
2.235
11,657
6.139
Ch«’,<r4
TAMS-IR.G Buro-Akobu River Basin Integrated Development Muster Planand development options
VOLUME n
IP01
FA5E
_____________ . _
peak day demands were estimated These were arrived « by muhiplvma the
by a facto, of 1 15 10 «>«r loaaK uken „ 1S% and by a J , ,
d ' the peak dav demand is 30% greater than the average dav demand
^thaItnc^
, hAOmjected requirements and estimated existing system capacities, programmes were for installing additional system capactnes to meet the projected future requirements
rJ t the planning Pcri0d Up l° 'VCar 2035 The COStS °f thesc additions 10 d* preseni
e estimated on the basis of existing data and information and as desenbed in Annex ^ResourcesCost Estimating.
'  proposed  water  supply  programmes  are  the  following , A aiy water supply programme for 9 main towns,
, a snail tow(1 waler
Pro£Tamme for the remaining medium and small towns and
villages.
,  a   rural  community  water  supply  programme  for  the  installation  of  water  supply  wells  in  the rural communities.
y® programmes  include and broaden the current water supply  projects  and programmes V ire designed to meet the Government policy  objectives  of supplying safe drinking water to i kasr 95% of the urban population and 35% of the rural population and to adopt the water ulry standard recommended by the World Health Organisation
Tteinvestment that will be required in order to implement the proposed programmes  expressed
■"Jllion   USS   (January   1996   level),   are   summarised   in   Table   4.4.   These   costs   include wsuaon costs, physical contingencies, engineering and administration costs
fable 4.4 Proposed Programme Investments (10*US$)
fend Years
Doing
City
Programme
Small Town
Programme
Rural
Programme
Totals
Average
AimaaJ per
Period
isd;
26.0
so
7.9
4W
10 5
14.6
7.5
27.7
.1997-2000
2001-2015
2016-2030
2031-2035
.1.997-2035
J.tOWn P  £Tafnmes were designed to service 100% of the population. The
49.8
3.3
27.1
fiO
54 4
895
6.0
.1^3          — *■
2.5
00
18 1
20.6
4.1
70.2
23 5
108 1
201.8
52
1.80
0.60
2.80
5J
____________
15 and
ro
by year
Pr°8ramnie was designed to cover 25%, 50% and
of the
Panning period ’            ~          2^5 respectively, with an average of 59% for the entire
C'^costaf
iL C3, Us so is?ter’ including unit recurrent cost per cubic meter is about LS SO 37 or
r
'V-?* of Lss A J
he sma11 towns and 50 12 for the rural programmes .Assuming an
’ej, S*>1ah lou-n per cubic meter was adopted (somewhat higher for the cities an schemland rural ^eas) the above resulting unit recurrent cost suggests that a
,.
e can be considered as pan of a tariff design Some of the capita u.
River d------------------------------- -------------------------------di
r Bas|a Integrated Development Master Plan
"Chapter 4RESOURCE base and development options
investment cost may be recovered, and subsidies could be minimised with the
of avoiding them altogether in the long term.
#. 2.2 Hydroelectric Power Project Development (Annex I J)
Up to the present, the Ban>Akobo basin has not been considered in master Dl
for its potential to contribute to the energy supply of the country This is 
region remoteness from Ethiopia's main load centre, Addis Ababa
The upper part of the basin, however, is among the wettest of the country w i, precipitation at many gauging stations ranging from 2,000mm to 2,500mm
riveTs in the lower basin, in particular the Baro and the Gilo have average annual 1 nearly 500mm The abundance of water, combined with the large difference
between the upper land, above 2.000 masl, and the lower land, below 500 masl makes'^ Baro-Akobo basin a very good candidate for hydropower development
Power Sector Setting
brnatc
CS ’
In recent years  EELPA has  been planning for the extension of its  transmission line network  to
reach  the  eastern  limits  of  the  basin.  For  example,  the  plans  include  an  extension  of  the  132
kV line from Ghido to Nekempte and Gimbi in the north, This  line is  currently  und«
construction   and   the   connection   to   the   Interconnected   System   (ICS)   is   scheduled   for   1999
Similarly  the Sor region in the central portion of the basin, is  planned to be connected to the
ICS in year 2000 through a 132 kV line from Bebele to Metu In the south, closer to she
Gilgel Gibe project in the Omo Gibe basin that is  connected to a 220 kV line, the Barc-
Akobo   basin   is   scheduled   to   be   connected   to   the   ICS   through   a   132   kV
line
from
Jimmato
Bonga and Mizan Teferi by year 200),
EELPA projection for the country's energy demand in the earlier part of the 21st century,
indicates that the peak power demand will grow from 282 MW in 1995 to 1965 MW in -01-
This growth corresponds to a rate of approximately 10% per year At the present, the ICS
a total installed capacity of 378 MW comprised al 98% of hydroelectric power plants 
e
expansion plan provided by EELPA, shown in Table 4 5, include almost
•
hydropower      projects      such      as      AJeltu,      Chcmoga-Yeda,      Halele-Warebasa      for      wh,c feasibility or even pre-feasibility studies have been completed
Table 4.5
Hydropower Plants
Aero Derivative__________ Gilgel Gibe______________ Tis Abbey II
Geothermal _              _ Mediurn     Hydro     (Gojeb) AJeltu East_______ ____ AieltuW          est
f-Lalele _        _      _     _ Warebesa_
Chcmoga-Yeda
[Total
Proposed Projects in EELPA Expansion Plan
Installed Capacity
75 MW 180 MW
60 MW 30MW 100 MW 204 MW 214MW
68 MW
264 MW 630 MW
1760 MW
Co mm is s ionD^.
TAMS-ULG Blro-Akobo River Bisin Integrated Development Master Flan
128pA SE AND development options
volume n
nstruct'on cost5’inc!lldin8 transm’ss*on lines, of these power plants have been
n s2 406 per kW of installed capacity Ths estimate is based on the present t0 ( discount rate) of the construction cost estimates of these plans adjusted to a
1996 pri-level
r nditioM >n the /V^Cf
P
rfistM L<”*     demand for the Baro-Akobo basin is forecast to reach 60 MW in 2020 with a -* °*^Cdeinand in electnc energy of 256 Gwh/yr. The energy sales in the three
ch cover the basin, Wollega, Son and Bonga amounted to 8 3 Gwh in 1993 The
■si ®* pacity of
0
the basin’s approximately 10 MW and includes the 5W hydroelectric 
^ iJ,£ al Sor A second hydropower plant in the basin produces 800 kW in the south at
^kebacoffee plantation The remaining capacity is supplied by small diesel units 
^lonly a few towns have electricity supply available; these include Ghimbi, Ascsa,
yjjits Gfoorrefu. tGuarmebddaeavend DloeprTmlbideonJot of hydropower at the local level are limited to the expansion of ic Sor hydroelectric project and a small run-of-river power plant of 1.5 MW’ at Achani The icfogansion would include an upstream regulating reservoir and a power station with an oue in capacity to reach a total of 10 MW'
ffnfro/vHw Potential in the Basin
Tbe two previous studies of the water resources in the Basin, performed by klkbozpromexport and ARDCO-GEOSERV have identified a number of hydropower Knarjes, some including regulating dams and some run-of-river plants
J jrougji a three step screening process, all these projects were reviewed and evaluated The ^conclusions were that the run-of-river projects previously identified appear to be
■^n>e(y costly and would have practically no merit in a small isolated system Among the a nurn^r SffuA medium and large size hydropower plant have been
^'schein en®^neer^ 8 review, al the reconnaissance level, to evaluate the potential of
n
these h
rescrvo r
and secondary energy potential of 23 schemes were estimated by the ’ operation using the computer program HEC-5 The construction
to si
5C ernes
.      have also been estimated on a systematic basis, using uniform design
^ontheb * pr°ject* a consistent unit cost database These projects have been
CQr*strLictj0
Period Bl.
per kWh of firm energy' This cost has been determined by adding
I ?l:tttnance costT* the pTesenl value (at a 12% discount rate) of the annual operation and p.°erraio^dOa-yendadr ipviedriinogd bay ndthdeivi ddisco ingubny tetdhefirdmiscoenuenrgtey dpfriormduectnieorngy production
1 rst'M f
1
hyecJS
Performed for projects with an installed capacity in excess of 150MW, ! 5t?tES "Muderi I?<lu’Te<i connection to the ICS, and therefore the construction cost
"^e f0T the the cost of the transmission line to the nearest planned connection Sl2e of Project considered. The ranking is shown in Table 4.6
I I
J. 
ft;
’^kobo R; . "t—----------------- ■——--------------------------- —--------------- -------- ------ ■
l 'cr Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
Chapter 4RESOURCE BASE .AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
Project Name
Table -1.6
Installed
Ranking of Large Size Hydropower Projecl
Construction                 Firm      Ener
I
I
Capacity (MW)
Cost (£,000)
Baro J&2___
210
279,410
(GWh/yr.)
7.049
Geba-A     (£2
J7i
170
238.052
235,608
866
Bare* 2_____
Bubir-Syst.
508
422
“974,310
841
2.618
Birbir-R
828 845
Both the Baro and Geba projects involve the construction of a regulating dam m
basin, and two downstream power plants in a cascade arrangement Each * Uppe
includes a diversion structure consisting of a concrete weir in the river and a sidT-
followed by a power canal and a penstock leading to the powerhouse. Both nroC
therefore be staged: the first stage of Baro project would be a 170MW power plant whileT
the Geba project the first power plant would consist of 105 MW station Economically 
preferable to install the larger plant first to amortise the investment of the dam ad
transmission line at a faster rate
The third project ranked on the table, Birbir-System consists  of a system of two reservoirs  on the Birbir the upstream one (Birbir-A) at a location identified by  ARDCO-GEOSERV in: the second (Birbir-R) at the location identified in the Russian study, shortly  upstream of the confluence with the Geba Birbir-A consists  also of a regulating dam and a downstrea.7 diversion equipped with a 86 MW power plant In the case of Birbir-R, an intake located tn the reservoir diverts  the power flow through an eight kilometre long tunnel and steel penstock into a 422 MW’ power plant
Medium Scale Projects 
A second ranking was performed of medium scale hydropower in the range of 60 MW 10 ■ MW Such projects are still too large for the Baro-Akobo basin demands and would the. be justified in the context of the interconnected system The implementation of mediu hydropower projects is one of the expansion strategies of EELPA and is appropn
capital investments arc a constraint and where energy export is not a cons' era^ ranking purposes it has been assumed that the size projects would be tied into of the three planned 132-kV connections, e g , Ghimbi, Metu or Mizan The ranlan. • in Table 4,7.
Table 4.7 Ranking of Medium Size Hydropower Projects
.
T
Project Name
Installed
Capacity (MW)
—
Cost (8,000)
Firm
(GWh/yr)^________
($/kWh)        ,
Kashu
60
87,900
299                . . .-
Geba-A 1
105
117 000
,
160.700
529
Birbir-A
95
492                      —
Sor A & R                    65
137,700
342
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
1304ND development options
volume n
^thcy should be compared with othef P^POHd to be
ifpCE BASE
the  large and medium scale
pro Ccts
j
ift*" nor appear >0 Save cabli^ a ]o “ *<«' Prajw, on^'d ■» * ICS
^reas a prehmma^ approach, these project? J
cost of ? °n'w'de basis
< iM of called capacity As previousI^have been comPaferi ener^ and  "
p
^ ihe better projects from the Bar£^
19 96 has been estimated to be S2 406 
W Of'Called cal dlSCOlult
thc  averaae H the b^s of
fXir w EELPA s expansion plan               0 basin with those Tab|e 4 8 below
«d vaiUe
Table 4.8 
ecls lhat already
Comparison of Baro-Akobo Projects with other EELPA Projects
Installed Capacity (MW)
Construction Cost
(I’SS/kW)
Rosin Proiects
tu 1&2                                     —
210
1.331
KZI i&2
171
1392
Birtf A &R
508
1.918
iirbir-R
422
1.964
TAMS
1.060
2393
jte propels in Ethiopia
lj|;d Gibe
180
1,534
Wu Basil
186
2,053
to West
165
2356
I ludcse-Wirebesa
332
2 400
yeim-Yeda 1 Al!
630
1,816
^’Akobn.    1S.    brebrninary    comparison    it    is    therefore    clear    that    candidate    projects    in    the
JTtWiihoulrf
tO be attract‘ve the level of confidence in the return of these
e increased by carrying the study to the next level of pre-feasibility
P  fi
er
>n ^cd f°r smaller project (up to an installed capacity of 60 MW)
^toion belou incl^T16 Cr*t®rion was used, i.e.t the cost per kWh; the costs indicated in the the expeciL/ ° tlle COst °f transmission system to the nearest line. In the case of
I • Por Gtimcro „Connectlon point would be the planned 132-kV ICS connection in
| ’kC ^mission lin i
Baro 1„ this connection would be the existing 66-kV Gambela- ®-    . e ranking is shown in Table 4,9
Table 4.9
^stalled
Ranking of Small Size Hydropower Projects
Construction
Cost (S.000)
Firm Energy
(CWIi^'r)
Unit Cost
(S/kWhl
87.874                          299
0 040
3JL669                            255
0.049
76,317                          208
0.050
119,073                     Pz71
0.059
011   StS of a re
Com? ^ gMlating dam with a downstream
*
Plant The Gu      has the significant advantage of
mera
<
River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
Chip I er 4
131resource base and development options
divisions of 12 MW. 18 MW and 20 MW, respectively Based On the Do7 three Pou.
demand projection for the Baro-Akobo Basin, the Gumero project could me V and e*et *
the northern part of the Basin (Wollega and Sor regions) until the year 2030 F* e den,and^f
first plant of 12 MW would be commissioned in 2005, the second of 18 Mw °r CXarr>plc ,k
to come on line until year 2014, and the third one of 20 MW in year 2024 w?’d n°l S
investment would be large, since it includes the dam, the possibility of s^tagin h lhc
meet the growing local demand makes this project an attractive one. = B Ihe pr°j«cttQ
Candidates for Pre-feasibility Studies
Based   on   the   rankings   presented   above   it   appears   that   the   Gumero   Project   would   b. candidate project to be studied at the pre-feasibility level; this project wm.u J* a
addition   the   first   stage   of   the   project,   Geba-A   1,   is   the   best   candidate   for   medium™ projects.
e
For each of these projects, the reservoir and its  ability  to regulate the river flow on an inter- seasonal basis  is  a major factor in the viability  of the project Similarly  the detail of the topography  at the dam site and at the location of the major structures  will be required to improve the assessment of the civil work  required and to better define the quantity  and cost estimates
For   this   purpose,   it  is  recommended  that  surveying  work   be  performed  to  obtain  the following topography
•     a map of the reservoir areas at a 1; 10,000 scale with 5 meter contour intervals,
•      at  the  location  of  all  the  structures  a  topography  at  a  1  2,000  scale  with  2  meter  contour intervals, and
•     For each power canal, approximately three cross-sections per kilometre should be prepared.
one  at  each  structure  location.  These  test  pits  should  be  examined  under  the geologist and a descriptive log should be prepared for future reference
and formulate possible projects, to estimate the cost of these projects, to ^^ates 1 , projects suitable for inclusion in a series of Master Plan Proposals The cos proje€t top ranking projects also served for preliminary' economic evaluation o ^ d« ’
cll
formed the hacic FAr
______ •       .«           •         «.i__ k«vp been rCC
TAMS-l LG Baro-Akobo River Bum I te r.ted Devdopmeni Master PI«
nZcE jjaSE ANU development options
" paa and/^rmat,"  bsed
VOLUME II
n
' d wmPlete and reCent d3U rancerninS the irrigation Do«ihiiv *^ V ARDCO-GEOSERV for the Upper fl
rt
?
area is
* X**® by 5elkhozPromexPon of the former Soti« t r 1995
^?Xdy prints an inventory of 18 potential project areas iXST" 1990 XXata on these areas On the other hand, the iatTer
ba5'n ij,c,ud'"S
S    study    is    a    detailed    Master    Plan    for    the    development    ofX^l    3      50      kn°W71      45      the
X studies in rhe Lower Basin that includes a propo^l fOr ida Plajn are the study carried out by TAMS in the 1970s ^t
°*er Ba5,n Other
devel°Pment in the
S MdarW by  a Dutch firm
y ARDCO-GEOSERV, the Selkhozpromexport and the TAMS repons were reviewed in * course of this assignment The Euroconsult report was not available However the
Study provides general information on its findings 
’C
■    tje    information    and    the    Master    Plan    Studies    covering    the    population,    climate, "X'ogy    geology-    soils.    'and      U$C'    aSr’Culturc      other      resources    that    may    have    an    impact jlic   potential   for   irrigation   development   and   the   possibilities   for   flow   regulation,   dam   and vjropower    development    within    the    basin    which    can    have    a    direct    effect    upon    flow
■.ulability    was    used    as    required    and    are    discussed    elsewhere    in    this    report    Other r.t<iniiionused   extensively   in   this   study   include   the   existing   topographic   maps   at   1:25,0000 ut  155,000,  the  layouts  and  designs  of  the  projects  in  the  Russian  Master  Plan,  information aceAlwero   project   including   the   Abobo   dam   presently   under   construction,   data   on   several tocm     projects   elsewhere   in   Ethiopia   and   miscellaneous   cost   information   obtained   from
■lflws government sources.
i.ipo’ Borin Projects
projects identified in the Upper Basin were assessed with respect to
*
k   loution
• j • the wereda
k
-:pi.laiion in the vicinity of the project an m
suitability
k   Uad resource,
including topography, soils ,
k
*tler resources availability
k  Possible diversion and conveyance systems
k
required length of access road
r -Micts with other water development /hydro proje
,,  t,cailt  of  this  analysis  it  was  concluded  that  the  propo       „.tes were generally unsui a '^SMionduetoon^---------------------- -' " ”
c
I
II
one or more of the following :
I    S* rainfal1 in « "«s
ir^ not suitable for^^0't0 exist’nS forests and or coffee plantations 
^shy areas r UTl8at'On because of steep ground slopes, broken topography, rocky 
X,
^SJ6ct ^are
’ Or its suitability for other uses
^ J;re e’cpensitSCnerally located far away from the populated areas, lack access and e r °ad construction
V
A ~ ~
^* cr Bi«an Ini egraced Development Muter Plan
v
Chapter 4
i.■resource base and development options
Some areas are in conflict with other potential development such as h d has excellent potential for development in the basin or depend on the h** such project as a source of water supply. 
Insufficient water during the low flow and no storage possibilities to suddI flow (The projects are based on run-of- river diversions). 
evel°Pm  , ’
ea
I
pp enie’’t the
This assessment was confirmed during the site visit and from the results of oth studies such as land evaluation, soils, forestry and hydropower
er  ^'er p^.
In view of the above,  no  farther consideration was given
Basin
Lower Basin Projects
to irrigation Projects in the
In contrast with the Upper Basin, the Lower Basin, specifically the Gambela Plain mostly above the flooded areas, between elevations 425 and 550 meters above sea level" (yv many  promising  possibilities  for  the  development  of  irrigation  This  was  previously recognised in the studies made by TAMS and Euroconsult and more recently the Russia Master Plan As a result of the latter, the Ethiopian government decided to undertake the development of the 10000 hectare Alwero project that includes the Abobo dam for whxh construction is nearly completed This project is conveniently located in the centre of gravin'
of the extensive irrigable areas
Based on available data, 14 basic irrigation systems were identified, laid out, sued ard costed These systems included,
I)
2)
3)
4)
dams for storing and regulating the available flows and for making possible to take water from these reservoirs at desirable elevations for command of the area to -e irrigated
pumping stations either as an alternative to diversion structures or to gain comma, o of higher areas,
conveyance systems including canals, tunnels, siphons and other structures crossings
j road* irrigation systems including land development water distribution sys 
drainage, flood protection dikes and drainage pumping
The r-el
The area investigated consists of a gross surface area of about 500,000 hectar that can ultimate'v be developed is about 380 000 hectares
■ ares c Table 410 summarises the potential projects, the gross and net areas, in terms O’L^ cost of the project in million US $ the unit cost per hectare and the ranK'"8Water R^
per hectare Cost estimates were based on Annex 1G Cost Estimating » Projects
Conclusions and Recommendations
|jc$
 in th«
The irrigation study indicates that the potential for irrigation development of Plain in the Lower Basin where the ultimate development potential isin
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master PI*" 134aN
p development options
volume n
x
tSASE
---
-------- -
et area Fourteen basic systems have been laid out sized and their
a or 38°’°° ?at t
e
h  Master Plan Level These costs which include dam costs,
7bee  estimate
n
j]TiRation systems, drainage systems, etc van from about USS
1CCCSS r<boui USS 17,400 per hectare with an average of approximately USS
‘wfhectarc
ranking of possible projects has been established This indicates that -rfdon^^toiect in terms of cost are.
(D
The right bank  of the Bare River including the Itang Dam and Gravity  System with command of about 66,600 ha (gross) and 50,900 ha (net) at a cost of about USS 8,200 per hectare.
The Alwero Project presently under construction with command of about
k 10,400 ha (net ) at a cost of approximately US S 8,400 per hectare.
0)    The    Alwero,    Dumbong    system    upstream    of    project    (2)    above    in    the    Alwero River    Basin    including    the    construction    of    the    Dumbong    Dam    and    a    gravity system   This   Project   could   irrigate   a   further   15,000   ha   net   in   this   valley   at   a cost of approximately USS 8,700 per hectare, and
(4)   The   right   bank   of   the   Gilo   River   in   the   vicinity   of   Agenga   where   a   net   area   of about   47,000   ha   could   be   put   under   irrigation   at   a   cost   of   about   USS   9,200 per  hectare.  This  project  would  involve  the  construction  of  the  Gilo  2  Dam  and gravity conveyance.
luxommend that the Master Plan scenarios include the above among opions identified Of Owe, .he Aheera pr°l««
be the logical initial phase of irrigation development
construction
^wggested   that   the   Baro   Right   Bank/ltang   system   with   a   potential   for   about   51, ft ^ares (net) be considered for prefeasibility level studies
** Ba,ln lnmpaud
Muter Flan
Chapter 4
135RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
Table 4.10 Summary of Irrigation Project Cost Estima(e
System
I
*
Description
Grow
Area (ha)
Net Area
(h»
fllSSxlQ*)
1
2
Baro RB Itang Dam, gravity
Bare RB. lung. Pumping 
.419 1_
388 6
2A
3
Sv stem 2*Relift station
66600
41267 
57495
50900
31569 _ 43983_
13264
-
8235
12309  "
13153,
10
Baro.RB Gambella Dam
17338
.15748
I5‘
3A
3B
System 3+ Low lift
i System 3A+High lift
4j016
67740
31378
51821
^_12393_
19 
1J
4
4A
Baro RB Rj ver Pumping
17338
J3264
31378
.    13831
1   11520^   ~
I6
System 4+Low Lift
41016
67740
406.6
8260
,12958
9_
4B
System 4A+High Lift
51821
M
5,
6
7
Biro. LB, hang Dam
Baro.LB, Pumping
761900
15832
Baro. LB. Gambela Dam              57018
47400
12100
43619
.15939       ~
444 2
124.9 
469.7
. 9371^ ~
10324
5
6
8
Baro. LB. River Pumping
57018
43619
607.5
13927
9
AJwcro Abobo Dam
13600
10400
17
87.4
10
AJwcro ChiruDam
17054
8405
12000
2(Ti ~~
151 0
12584
10A
Alwero Dumbong Dam
23192
15000
131 0
8735
12
3(1j (2i
10B
Alwero. Chiru A Dumbong
Dams
34665
26550
290.7
10947
8
11
Gilo. RB. Gilo 1 Dam
81346
62230
919 9
14782
18
12
Gilo LB Gilo 1 Dam
79652
60934
1011.6
16600
21
12A
Gilo .LB. River Pumping
65578
50167
871.9
17370
22
13
Gilo.LB. Gilo 2 Dam
33855
25900
332.5
12839
13
14
Gilo. RB.Gilo 2 Dam
61325
46900
432.0
9212
4(1)
(1)          Proposed for Master Plan
(2)         Proposed for Prefeasibility Study
43.3 Flood Protection Projects
Flooding  in  the  lower  pans  of  the  basin,  the  Gambela  plain  occurs  every  >  car Study identified the two following reasons for the flooding problems in t e
area, to be as follows
•            flooding resulting from overflow of river bank, and.
•            flooding resulting from rainfall and poor drainage
Russian
of two P
o$s bte
The flooding resulting from the river overflow is stated as the consequence^ pjbo ^
r
sff
-
phenomena a river bankfull capacity too small and the backwater effect o and the Sobat River.
capacities of the major rivCTs'fl ^^hozpromexport study is that the
than frequently rectirrine '’-S®
AJwcro and the
h vd
-  ^ul,c computations; Table 4 i SfUdy 1135 est“nated the bank 5x11 C,fC2tim« *
tc
jf
the 10-year flood and io  ~> shows those values along the river with the es 
v
-year water at that location
TAM ST LG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Dociopment Mas7rPlan
136VOLUME n
F Distance
from the
Mouth
(km)
Bankfull
Capacity
(«’)
Bankfulj
Level
10 year
Flow
(nH/s)
10  year
Level
230                 1,510
434.7Q
1,782               435.14
197                    860
r426 60
-                42870
178
1.300
---- !—.— ------■
423 80
1.472               424 08
jikawp .
.iku-hFiii I cs
' 93
1,080             410.30
------ ———----
-----------              410.11
212
75             452.00                  247
452.51
200
70             447 30
*
44791
141
60             428 50
-
429.04
261
350             435 50
737
436.38
217
300             426 85
--
150
150             418 80
--
•jEgthe  rainy  season,  saturated  soil  and  poor  drainage  of  the  low  land  is  the  second  cause ficoding.  The  extent  of  flooding  in  the  Gambela  Plain  varies  from  year  to  year  For  each
'ding situation, based on a statistical analysis  of the water level records  in the lower basin Eas  aerial survey  in 1988, the Study  has  estimated the probability  for the land to be ded. The total area of the lower basin subject to repeated flooding is  9720 Jan* The tosiin Study has estimated the percentage of land flooded to be as follows
Wreuce interval
lysr *jttr
Flooded area resulting
from river
8%
37%
100%
Flooded Area
resulting from rainrail
20% 58%
Total flooded area
28%
95%
100%
^210 4° 1 ? ma8nitude of the floods, the land remains  inundated for a period varying lt,ciw locatin'11 i31 IUne' The Russian study  presents  a water level frequency  analysis  at
ns a on8 the rivers of the low lands based on historical records.
■ 1,41 " n of l
a
re 8ular flooding of the plain, no major development has taken place
sevendS'n w*1*c*1 's ma'nly used as pastures for cattle The towns of Itang and
'^Ycar evCn| Vl ^ 8
a
es were severely affected by a flood estimated to be the equivalent
Possible Va^Ue social benefits of preventing flooding remain to be balanced % ’’J* v’]lages tTr"76 impac,s t0 ^e environment, it should be noted that it is rare for
S MyfOrr , P °’ected against the 100-vear flood as has been proposed in the
r
Wxla and Itang
d CVe|
X J1* ^ood n
P ni ent
r   .   . °f the lower Baro-Akobo basin essentially consists of irrigation
J.2(4ear rP “ ectlon schemes for irrigation projects are generally designed for the ^odino^ Penods These schemes incorporate dikes and other structures to
K trOrn ^e rivers, as well as canals and pumping stations to insure good
.
jSs.
Hjy       ——— 
cr Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
137
Chapter J
u
■ ■■resource base and development options
For the Town of Gambela, additional protection, beyond the 20-year fl considered This protection, however, will have to be considered in the Rene
l
lower plain proposed development, and the selected flood protection scheme nC°niect of/
the solution for Gambela consists  of dikes, it is  likely  that the incremental D °r f
relatively  inexpensive The Russian Study  has  indicated that the differer/ CctlOr> will J 
between the 10-year and 100-year floods  is  only  in the order of 20 to 30 centiWaiei level
the protective measures, the water level frequency  developed in the Russian st*?* Fo,t
used for planning purpose
It is anticipated that a study of the Gambela Plain flooding would involve mnriellino and detailed survey of the river cross-sections, in the olain uJ? ?,the!’atia
should:t
Sabot to determined their carrying capacrties  as  well as  the volume of water stored' *
respective flood plain The long-term solution will also have to be analJL'"-4'1'
environmental   impact   as   it   has   been   mentioned   that   the   regular   flooding   of   the   n«L-'
__ Z ♦ koe koan montinnazl
—— 1 rt
provide subsistence to the cattle The possible solution could involve major construal
work including dredging and canalisation of the major rivers
43 Natural resources and agriculture
Natural resources  are an important component of project-area development The preodins chapter described the condition and extent of natural resources, this  chapter summarise.1 development options  to improve them The following sections  discuss  smallholder agncultui livestock, fisheries, forestry, apiculture, wildlife, tourism, and mineral resources
4-3.1 Smallholder Agriculture
Subsistence farmers are poorly equipped to improve agriculture in light of expanding popjlaiu- pressure Their traditional response has been to slash-and-bum But, with only 3 p«
Ethiopia now under primary forest, mostly on steep slopes and shallow and erodible soi s. opportunity is now slight
The Master Plan proposes to improve agriculture by introducing practices that
improve soil fertility,
protea the environment and
improve the symbiosis between cropping and livestock feedingBASE and development options
VOLUME JI
c offee represents the major cash crop of the project area and the country A
. j-JUid A>'a^ca acting of producer countries failed to agree on limiting production. The i lrtern8tl°20O5)   world   market   forecast   is   for   prices   of   low-grade   arabicas   and   all   robustas
s bjtt-tern1
^5 hji
w     e       demand    for    quality    highland    arabicas    will
remain    stable    This    suggests 
r     steadily   ”   ,   be   able   to   capitalise   on   this   demand   wrth   interventions   to   improve   yields ia Ethiopia sh0
• a in the Gambela area is extensive, its recent production shortfalls are mostly 
DryUnd ^'^ment
Table 13 gives the expected gross margins for a range of
mature   mangoes   close   to   nvers   appear   to   yield   well,   the   quality   of   their   fruit   does   not ^'international   standards   Citrus   would   probably   yield   equally   well,   although   none   was   seen + nz field visits Annex 21 provides a notional cash flow for mangoes and oranges -An
_ rr>T> __________ ,„kl„ ic__________ .____ *
estimated yield of 25 Vha of fruit gives an ERR of roughly 15 per cent
interviews  with Anuak  groups  revealed a need for hoes  to replace their traditional digging stick, winch they  perceived as  a constraint to the size of area (0 5 ha) they  are able to cultivate. With ^proved hoes. their cultivable area might rise to about one hectare
U.2 Zjvestocft f/42L)
Tbe main constraint to livestock  production in the basin is  the supply  of feed In spite of good trowing conditions  for most months  of the year, animals  are generally  undernourished for much of the year This  applies  in respect of both feed quantity  and quality  The reason for this unbalance is becoming greater year by year, and can be attributed to the following factors:
the seasonality of vegetative growth,
seasonal flooding in the Lower Basin,
die progressive loss of grazing lands to annual cropping, the loss of land and productivity through soil erosion, the growth in livestock numbers.
15 Elective                private ownership of land would greatly facilitate the achievement of
Integrated Development Master Planresource base and development options
. ihe enclosure of common grazing land, where technically feasible ■
Vo %
cropping systems.
’ ,hc
•    the impro'td management of residual common grazing lands (thos* v cultivated), to improve production through better communal manai> Wh’Ch
legumes, livestock control, and rotational grazing, and
a ec’nem,
•    the control oftsetse. to make new areas can be made accessible for wj,-
Fodder shrubs such as Sesbania spp offer great potential for the itnprovemm, nutrition and for the encouragement of intensive integrated farming systems
Feedstuffs, which compose crop residues and other by-products, account for proportion of total feed supplies when compared to Highland areas of Ethiopu" VSm411 land is depleted, crop residues will become increasingly important. Theefficie utilisation should be improved using the following methods:                                   ncy of
•
crop residues should be collected and stored,
•
field trials are recommended into methods of i mproving the feed value of crop
•
residues as a component of animal feed - this could be achieved through chemkil u
physical treatment, and
•
other wastes (agricultural and industrial) that have a livestock feed potential, such s 
brewery waste, could be better utilised
The technology for the control of tsetse fly has recently improved Some of the new metks are relatively cheap and offer a real opportunity for individual fanners - with the necesar. direction, training and support of organisations  such as  NTTICC (National Tsetse a: Trypanosomiasis Investigation and Control Centre) and ICIPE (International Centre Inter Physiology and Ecology) - to undertake control programmes
Veterinary services require strengthening through the provision of a greater share of resources The improved supply and utilisation of veterinary drugs is an essential par- improving veterinary services in general The Master Plan has assessed the »
alternatives
•
•
improved monitoring and control of drug supplies by the government increased support from private licensed veterinary officers,
I
•
licensed suppliers of drugs,
payment of the full cost of livestock health care
Improved livestock technologies appropriate to Ethiopia have been developed bu, extension field staff they are not equally applied at the farmer level The held worker (Demonstration Agent - DA) per 1,000 cattle. To achieve
staff would be augmented by formers trained in basic animal management and
In most ofthe weredas ofthe Upper Basin, draught oxen are too few to meet acjdres5 crop production, estimated at one pair of oxen for 2.5 hectares of crop
following measures are required in selected areas
contro* and eradication of tsetse fly ;
improved nutrition, management, and health care, and
,ocal testing and introduction of improved draught technology
7 AMS-1 LG Biro-Akobo River Buin 1^^ Development Muter Pl*°
fid:
eeds0^
✓
A A
i inVOLUME U
x Fce’z        .— ----------
on food >Q thc Basin* 's generally in short supply. Ethiopian cows produce <■ t iboog*1 a C?mTT1 There a very few cases where improved cows are being managed for the
I p:li®*5 ^res per day The technology of improved dairy production is complicated,
SF aNd development options
fl i cW
l
>n 1  that jt be introduced now with all the necessary support and extension in the
jjtiis^J^market towns The following factors need to be addressed
forage production,
water supply.
tsetse status and veterinary needs,
supply of improved animals credit, and
appropriate shelter
, nol numerous in the basin, about 1 I million compared to 1.2 million cattle
n cken production should be promoted through the strengthening of specialist extension evicts the supply of improved stock, and assistance with better feeding and housing from
2 materials Considering the factors that govern the environment, the Master Plan has prepared the following development options These activities have been selected on the basis af an average farm budget, including the cost of general support services
*
improved draught cattle in tsetse infested areas,
■
small scale improved dairy' production.
•
improved poultry production;
■
dairy goat development, and
Fisheries (Annex 2K)
Tae primary objectives of fish management within the project area should be to maintain fish
proAiaion at ns present level and conserve stocks for future sustainable exploitation. These
^ectives are particularly pertinent to the Integrated Master Plan, where other sectors — 
- qxwer and irrigation, for example — may reduce fisheries schemes If the fisheries 
Partial of the region is to be developed, there are a number of constraints which must be
mnonie
in   t£r^s     e^On     ^d   quality   control   systems   for   fisheries   statistics   requires   urgent   improvement 0      ^Shodology,    staff    resources,    training,    and    auxiliary    equipment    The    methodology’
itpu ffo10^ ^loies on "vers  already  exists  (Cowx, 1993), but it will require considerable (lefn^ p s"er^es experts  to set it up A part of the problem arises  because thee is  no well- Eoct to collect the necessary  production data on which to manage the available fish
Uterine
' ac^ ltie necessary experience to formulate and implement a catch
^forE a rnJ>ro8ramme to collect these data. Thus  the staff will require the necessary  training ^bela ; °nuo?ng programme can be put into place The present fisheries  staff of three in ^^Serverj Or_ln equate to support full-scale monitoring and a number of trained fisheries 
ens      nced    to    be    employed    to    implement    a    monitoring    programme.    These
vi ®*I
50 re9,llrc transport (motor cycles, or a Oat bottomed, air-propelled river craft) to n in remote areas along the rivers
d eveh
and ct™                capture fisheries sector is severely constrained by the lack of a
°f   cap(u    lstri)>ut’on    infrastructure.   At   present   fish   is   either   sold   at   the   toad   side   near   the neafoy towns 'OCal market, especially in Gambela, or dried and sold in Gambela or
iSi£5LGB——-
■
- ____________________ __________ Akobg River Basin Integrated development Master Plan
MI
Chapter 4RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
(I)
(2)
reluctance/resistance on the pan of the indigenous people to change. partl
is not partoftheir normal diet,
lCUartyasf^
the absence of a local private marketing system or parastatal such as FPMc re producers and Marketing Corporation) to act as an intermediary m the sale
rt) lack of suitable post harvest preservation facilities and poor access to not^. i (e g Gore, Metu, Bedele. lima)
la "^eti j
Two of the main constraints to developing the fisheries sector in the region are provision of and development of a marketing infrastructure However, there is an obvious needT institutional support, legislation and use of policy instruments in the development process ”
Although fishenes are of some importance in the lower Baro Akobo basin, institutional supjxn is limited This is primarily due to a scarcity of trained manpower and resources At present efforts are focused towards providing training on net making and repair but there appears tow little attention paid to important aspects such as post harvest development, improvements in ger lechnology and marketing infrastructure There is thus an urgent need for an adequate extenstr. service to support fisheries development in the region.
Other sectoral interventions may have many direct and indirect interactions with fisheries These have been summarised in Table 5, Annex 2K which subjectively assesses the impacts interv entions on fisheries to identify the importance and magnitude of the potential effects This assessment is a modification (Cowx, 1996) of the Leopold Assessment (Leopold, 1971) used □> Environmental Impact Analysis
For the reasons listed below, The intensity and size of water resources development schemes of major concern to fish habitats
spawning) and downstream (dispersion and feeding) migrations These
prevent the natural breeding and feeding cycles of the fish. Although no
on the migration patterns of the fish species in the Baro Akobo basin it is kn° of the species (e g Nile perch, Barbus and Labeo) actively migrate along t e c
avJiliblf mat'
the floodplain region .Again many species (e g catfish) spawn in the
su  merg  vegetation  acts  as  spawning  substrate  and  the  static  waters nursen habitat for juveniles
anbase and development options Rrf
____________ ________
VOLUME
fish species, breeding success depends upon a coincidence of factors, of which
, for i™’*' Qf (|ie moS( important If the timing of the flood is displaced, as is often the
■to*1? plated rivers, many species may fail to reproduce successfully Abrupt changes 
c 15*11/characteristics can also have adverse effects on spawning success. Overly rapid
in in water level can leave spawning areas exposed at critical periods Also larvae
stranded in isolated pools and streams or washed away 
uid egS5, ma*
, Downstream migration is  impeded, as  juvenile fish have to pass  through turbines  or other diversion channels  This  frequently  causes  high mortality  or again interrupts  the migration patterns
fo evaluate the potential impact of these schemes, the Master Plan recommends  that a fisheries Minitonrig programme be set up immediately  on the Alwero river to show the effect of the Atobo dam A summary  of the potential impacts  of waler resources  development schemes  is provided in (Annex 4B, refers).
Aquaculture in Ethiopia is  in its  infancy  The only  aquaculture activities, apart from a few7 etchen level ponds  are culture-based stock  enhancement programmes  earned out by  Sebeta Fish Cuhure Station However, with the proliferation of water resources  and favourable climate the potential for development exists both in the upper and lower basins.
Before any  options  are to be considered, a first need is  to collect baseline data about fisheries  so ratonaj development options  can be proposed It is  necessary  to collect information on all the relevant fisheries  resources, levels  and methods  of exploitation, socio-economic  contribution of fisheries  both at the local and national levels, potential for marketing within and outside the
institutional and legal requirements.
* potential for aquaculture development in the Baro Akobo basin is vast However, there are
^wous constraints on the success of such an intervention. Before aquaculture is promoted as 
wiaiusin for enhancing fish production, we recommend an economic feasibility study,
RiilaKr^                  options, be carried out The overall objective should be to examine the
juji   !  ’ty  °f  P°nrf  sites,  of  seed  and  feeds,  and  to  develop  a  business  plan  carried  through  to ^ vek>^ent^y ^C1 l^S C0St hencfit analysis has proved favourable should any aquaculture
ion available on the fisheries resources of the Bare Akobo catchment area is 
.............. -..............
J, comprising species inventories, superficial species distribution, methods of
fish ’
Ssbetic-
r
©praisai ^asile fauna and some genetic data These data are inadequate to make a full s,k * i es c * irnP*ct of future development schemes within the development plan or how
* *  —•••%- ’TibkXf)Uetl<VjUaVnOKX.'peiUn|Ah7J<aUnUce. 1LIdMUw»OitLhUiUnJ Ut1LheXJVseAJ W  prMoilpIIW  osaUUUlJs There is thus a need to fill the data gaps
a ran uMse the information to propose development options To provide the necessary
*
SBCtOr ^udy should be carried out which provides information on the fisheries
ltVe  S 3nd mel
^          hods of exploitation, socioeconomic contribution of fisheries 
1^*1
rc - . national levels, potential markets within and outside the region, institutional
■tements and feasibility of aquaculture developments. It includes
tl)
ft;
Oj
Sociol     °f th* artisanal and subsistence fisheries in the Bare Akobo region,
nent
In^ C^IWrtUc 3,1(1 "Acting study, and
°* water resources schemes on fisheries
Ul_G ft "—'
_______ ___________ __ __________ _________
* rtkAkobo River Basin Integrated Development Muter Plan
143
Chapter 4SOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
mdw « described in moeedeuil i» Annex 2K
/. J. 4 Forestry (Annex 2E)
The Master Plan proposes improvements in forestr} so as to
balance the production of timber and fuel wood to meet demand, strengthen the interaction between forestry and agriculture, restore the vegetation of degraded lands, and
.       strengthen the forest economy of the project area b Orf. .0 Khieve ttese obj«n«. f°'®> fira ">
improve knowledge about forest extent, composition, density, increment, md
improvements,
W?
increase the number and capacity of foresters as teachers and as technical f
within the Department of Forestry and Wildlife Conservation
° rKto‘
Actions
to achieve these objectives include the following
(1)
forestry education,
(2)
forest demarcation, delineation, inventories and mapping,
(3)
rehabilitation of the gum belt,
(4)
rehabilitation of disturbed natural     forests.
(5)
introduction of agroforestry, and
(6)
reforestation of abandoned lands
These are describee in detail in Annex 2E Forestry education would increase the number :t orestas with MSc degrees in Ethiopia. Some of these will teach in institutions of fortstn
, others will work to demarcate and manage project-area forests Parts of the prq£ t0 Product'On gum arabic, but require rehabilitation and manage”^
aiitahu r •
area are degraded The project will demarcate those that*
_    a      improved    management    It    will    then    improve    their    silviculture.    Underc      □
be nan
Improve agricultural production. This development °Pt,on * .
Deveinn   °   f   agricultural   message   delivered   by   agricultural   extension   agents 
growing ore«
abandoncd agriculture would be restored by
managcment wouJd be ,mProved the of hMV
W * °ZZ°,K’lStS 1 W,'oaal P °S™™ to (W®**
r
n  identffi^           stage and no fi ’
d Sease mon
'
^objectiivtoresi fng and t         or the spi hec sultreens^-
docuinentei^
^ns were repon^ ^
1    a^X>UI       beekeepers and hone)bASE and DEVELOPMENT options
VOLUME n
____________________
[fansport and containers,
producer prices, and
. products.
the  main  threat  to  beekeeping  is  habitat  loss  In  Baro  Akobo  it  is  the  forested
In the p °J 
f
major beekeeping areas Another significant threat is bee diseases brought into
areas that are me
This can be by humans bringing in bees from elsewhere, or by bringing in used
rhe proj^1 area. t
peeping
proposes that development focus on the aJleviauon of constraints currently 
the industry, rather than striving to introduce more complicated technology Annex 2H
vir - ^iimes of three development options To some extent these overlap in their objectives,
diry present varying levels of assistance depending upon the support available Interventions 
■eammended by other sectors in the project could have an adverse effect upon beekeeping
they include
•         Assistance to honey hunters,
-        Assistance to existing beekeepers, and
•         Organisation of a beekeepers co-operative and market development
lit Wildlife (Annex 2F)
Wildlife is  a dimension of land use: their numbers  respond to the quality  and abundance of vegetation, water, and other resources  that make up the landscape Their situation in the project tei is  now acute, and reflects  the many  calamities  that have beset savannah Africa in recent fables  In particular, civil unrest and the proliferation of arms  and refugees  have taken their toil. This  chapter summarises  the Wildlife Annex  2F of the Report It describes  the situation of wildlife in the project area and proposes ways to improve their management
The diversity and number of wildlife in the project area have changed dramatically in recent
Government policies, population and agricultural expansion, and civil unrest are
wgdy responsible.
^Ethiopian Wildlife Conservation Organisation (EWCO) was established in 1965 within the
Agriculture In common with many natural resources organisations during the
198^s> ** underwent organisational change including a period as a department within
Natural Resources Development and Environmental Protection. Returned once
e Ministry of Agriculture, its present organisational structure is still uncertain
IJ ^jbtedl°Ph’'     Centr^      government      is      to      regionalise     its      administration,     and     this     will
the sttuch
management throughout Ethiopia It is now for the regions to decide
blftn8    re    rC      ttie'r      "'ftdlife    management    organisations    will    assume
^ ,'ertiftie?^ \
n
rE 3ona] wiidff’
between regions and the central government Policy and will define how this should occur
1 I e management organisation in the project area
The method of liaison
is being addressed in
Al present there is no
Sti
■h ‘^sufiFici
Oha]
Ca Pac’t^ throughout Ethiopia’s wildlife sector is limited by
^’GSuffic ctlCles°f qualified and experienced staff
awareness within government of the significance and potential of natural
■ financial
limitations.
Ta ^alg B —                  _______________ ______ _ _
obo River Bisia integrated Development Master Plan
145
Chapter 4-
resoirce base and development options
(iv) absence of comprehensive management plans for priority cons
m atl0n ar
v) insufficient infrastructure to meet the needs of wildlife utilisation, and
(vi) insufficient research or monitoring capacity at either basic or app|lcd )eve|
While wildlife habiiaL could be said to include the entire project area, that f concentrates in the savannahs of the lower basin There. Gambela Nation n?
two controlled hunting areas — some reports also mention a third controlled h * Mizan Teferi Migratory animals, birds, and aquatic life occur at different according io the seasonal hydrology of the basin. A general impression is one^f65 condition. This is not reflected in the density ot variety' of wildlife, however Present wildlife ooDiilations bear no resemblance to sighting made .l. .
80od
numbers and movements.
■ Wlt-
The development of wildlife resources  in the project area cannot move forward withom chira in the relationship between government and natural resources. It requires  the estabbsrinerr r; Regional Wildlife Bureaux and of protected areas
Government policy holds that the regions should establish their own regional wildlife authorities Given the paucity of wildlife staff and skills in the project area, there is a clear -ml for external assistance in designing and strengthening appropriate institutional structures fa conservation and wildlife management
Under the current Wildlife Policy, existing national parks should become federal parks sanctuaries should become regional parks As there are no wildlife sanctuaries in the prrw area, the region could well enter the process with no regional parks
ot human populations that could easily be developed at this stage.
TAMS I LG Baro-Akobo River Bum lniegratcd Development Master Plan
Lftf1'
-
B\SE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
_ _.—_—-—•~ ~'
VOLUME n
j
benefit from wildlife resources Among the objectives of a community*
gj-amme would be maintenance of the integrity of protected areas, the {flfl**®’paging practices such as poaching, and participation in wildlife income-
. (^tributes  to the economy  of the project area Civet cat farming is  an example
Midlife      alreaiJ-
(hat         js        millennia     old     and     which     could     possibly     benefit     from     scientific 
of jn actn'ri Stjciolo(pca| rescarch may  be essential to penetrating the air of secrecy  that '^'T^he activity  .Among the considerations  that need investigation are the relationship iljrround5 mre and the dynamics  of wild populations, the factors  that regulate the secretion of ^ W,\h£PrriaJe and bow’it can be maximised, and the factors  that contribute to longevity  and jSy  ev™  reproduction in captivity 
r    -odile    farmins    is    another    economic    activity    capable    of    being    implemented    in    the    lowland tear   Ethiopia   already   has   experience   with   crocodile   farming,   albeit   not   in   the   project   area   It ^question    of    transferring    skills    and    developing    markets    It    will    require    a    feasibility    study    and dodsions   made   as   to   location,   methods   of   stocking,   skin   treatment,   and   marketing   avenues 
4JJ Taj/rtwn (Xifwex 2(i)
Historically, there have been different attempts  to develop tourism in Ethiopia A National Tourism Policy  document or Master Plan has  been produced by  Tourconsult International and is awaiting  approval by  the Council of Ministers  Nevertheless, a five-year development programme (1995-2000) based on ihe National Tourism Policy  is  presently  being implemented, Ils intent is to develop Project Profiles  for selected areas, which could then be made available to potential investon/tour operators
Most early  work  in the tourism sector concentrated on the identification of tourism sites  and taatior^ followed by  suggestions  for infrastructural developments. Given the paucity  and COTditJon. of Ethiopia's  lourist facilities, this  approach would require a massive injection of rapnal
SI    rec°gwsing   the   validity   of   this   approach,   the   Baro-Akobo   Master   Plan   is   directed   more   at
m
v                             developing ccotourism. as well as for providing conditions where tourist
for the             eventually become attractive There are two interventions in this proposal one
r &as*ni one ^or Lipper They are followed by suggestions for some national Upper Basin Annex 2G expands on the concept of Joint Venture
( "the w
°Plion calls for a pilot investment in ecotounsm at Lake Bishan Wak’a
surTOur^2Jer °f God^ which is situated about 20 km NW of Tepi This is a spectacular
site
sides by dense indigenous vegetation With raised banks overlooking the
^Urds  In th Part’Clllar^ suited to the construction of a tourist lodge to meet international
2 °resi\ as  des  e *™ne^iate vicinity  of the lake is  an extensive forest system, an "upland rain-
^^ofum
0^82) This forest system includes numerous "text-book" al and interesting biological phenomena
take place°^
^^UlTlwivc Th tb°S* baSCd °n consumPtive
Basut For the Lower Basin, there are two investments that
utilisation and those that are non-
thai
is non-consumptive, and responds to a demand for tourism in the
■hu" -
5 in
on wildlife — it is virtually depleted -An obvious alternative is
River Buin Inlegrated Develop men I Muter Plan
--------------------------------------------------------------- - --------------------
Chapter 4
147RiSOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
v°>
0
h
„ fa, upon the spocuculf river systems of the Lower Bas,n The activit
h. muitements of a pilot pro)e« “> >te ““A" " » ca"°' safaris This om;' * “* be, , taSte »P“,W durin« ,ht '°ff-se“<,n' <'' cteai taring season" *“*O
to atadv been established The Gilo. Baro. Akobo and Bidesa rivers (to L“ ‘ Obvious) ali have extensive tracts of water passing through "wld" country^ J* safaris of several days' duration
13.8 Mineral resources (Annex 2D)
The Baro-Akobo Basin contains important mineral reserves (Annex 2D FIgu
a le
main mineral potential lies in its Precambrian 100 grade metamorphtc
volcanic  „
a H ’ lb
rocks This area of interest occupies three major tracts, known as the Aso
Mineralised Belt in the north the Metu-Nego Mineralised Belt in the west T’S-
Mineralised Belt in the south Gold is by far the most important mineral The o0
03
actively seeking foreign investors to participate in mineral resource exol ^^
development.
The Master Plan has identified five development options It must be stressed however that
list is not comprehensive and further options may well develop after more detailed studies Th include Dul, Bunaya - Ankon, Tulu Kapi, Yubdo, and the Akobo basin These are describee Annex 2D The area of the developments could be large Important constraints are lack of energy, water, and access The sites require assessment before serious investment could he 1 justified
4. J. 9 Renewable energy resources (Annex 2J)
Energy is a basic ingredient to economic development The energy reserves of the Baro-Atao
MlC!1
basin are based upon water, biomass, and solar energy. Given the importance of agriculture am livestock raising to development, it is imperative to provide increased energy inputs»i complement to productivity expansion Increased supply of energy is necessary to maun productivity, alleviate human drudgery, and to arrest the negative environmental impact0 present patterns of energy consumption
A recent World Bank energy assessment indicated that only about 4 per cent population has access to electncity Even with the implementation of long-range e ( by the year 2011. some 96 per cent of Ethiopia's rural population would fe*T>a^Lj<i|i ik conventional electncity supply The majority of rural Ethiopian families an ®s L-Turpt<
i
1
x -------- „------------------rgy,            — nrtl5<l rraInis^^ i
nuSit .
smalt decentralised, renewable supply systems It is in the light °f
basin rural population have to rely on other sources of energy', and the most '■ ■’_ are small decentralised, renewable supply systems It is in the light of these con
ins resources reserves that a number of interventions have been recommen e
LLiveivestsotocck kbibogas  ioe. asThTehbeasi hnwh„ aks ,a. .laIr___ ge liive:___st___o_ck  _ .__p__o__p__u_l_a__t_io_ _n__T___h_e__ aTmhoeuamnt oouf  nt of i\J° Prov’(k an adequate fuel stock for a familv-size biogas plant to
and lighting needs of rural families
and thf nrov energy (solar photovoltaic cells) could supply en^ a wi ”
I
- terP^^
f °' *>»«•«= »d h'ii"ns “d
or energy to rural dunes and hospttais would improve the health of the po^
,aI1
energy fa'Xpmgw^
TAMS-ULG Birr>- ab u
duration3 sufficient, wind wrb
n n D • ■—■__ ________ _______ . ~~—
'' ,r Baun •ntexnted Development MasterbaSE
and development OPTIONS
VOLUME n
1
____________________________________
pi nta<ions- 1° w0°d deficit 31625 ajcI’35 Gimbi and Beg’ weredas. the Master Plan
t he establishment of community woodtots
j Rural Energy Systems To cater for the needs of the rural areas, it may be
integrate energy systems that are powered by solar, wind, biogas and mini-
#ece^er whenever appropriate to provide energy for lighting, cooking, small scale industries 
^iniga»°n
d  energy  efficient  cooking  stoves  Since  the  current  energy  use  practices  are  highly 1(1(’r0'  the  Master  Plan  recommends  the  promulgation  of  energy  efficient  cooking  stoves  to Seethe consumption of fuel wood
u Rural Infrastructure
Ul Economic infrastructures (Annex 3C)
Proposal road improvements
Hie Ethiopian Road Authority has recently issued its Road Sector Development Plan, which odines the targets and indicates priority road projects Consistent with the priorities of the Road Sector Development Plan, further improvements to roads in the project .Area, particularly those r. the regional road systems, will
•  permit  farmers  in  the  area  to  obtain  such  inputs  as  may  be  needed  to  increase  crop production  to  levels that will allow them to improve their families' diets and produce a surplus;
• allow these fanners to ship their surplus production to nearby markets and more distant centres.
P*™  extension workers to assist farmers in adopting modem techniques,
increase  the  viability  of  potential  large  scale  agricultural  schemes  in  irrigated  areas  by proving their access to labour and markets,
rational exploitation of mineral resources in area where they have been identified
1
Pjp,
re °^the road improvements  in the road sector that are proposed by  the project team
a
Ve   '  •10   improve  those  roads  in  the  Project  .Area  that,  because  of  their  present  condition,
rthejjB6 nun,I)€r of people isolated, with no access to needed goods and services or to markets 1,3 nn ° ^e*aIc^ t0 this  » the to being all roads  in a particular road class  up to a
or  aCCeP,ab*e   standard,  and  to  extend  regional  road  networks  to  areas  that  are  poorly served at all, where doing so will not open watershed forests to further
*
the reh^
C VCntlOns m rOfl
r                 dsec1or into two basic categories the first includes projects 
Med jn [i! rtat'on' opgrading or construction of new trunk roads and major links not already three m                      Road Sector Development Plan, as well as some key regional roads.
?ramn]e r °^roa^ projects are proposed below for inclusion in a subsequent (or parallel) o improvements on the basis of three factors
®»ro-Akobo River Birin Integrated Development Muter Plan
Chapter 4The second category covers the upgrading and ’’densification" of h
te
I
local roads within a single wereda or group of weredas by this 
of
individually     identified     but     a     general     standard     of     coverage     is     applied     y       These       r°ads 
basis of earlier observation that existing roads at the regional and )
part in poor condition These are discussed in detail in Volume 3 ? t? evel
•         Rehabilitation, Upgrading or Construction of Trunk Roads and iu •
•         Rehabilitation and Upgrading of key Regional Roads and Ma'n Unks'
•         Upgrading and Expansion of Regional and Local Road Nenvorkc u- Weredas 
“ ^nied*' 'X"
for th *’
lh ey include ert°s
networks wnhm the
vSv tigZme constraints, no specific airport projects are recommended at thts time note however that there are six airports in the Project Area that have scheduled semcm
the present time but only one, GambeU has a hard surface runway and can accommxxe aircraft larger than a Twin Otter.
Proposed improvements in the Power Sector
It is expected that the primary source of electric energy in the Baro- Akobo Basin in the futxe | will be water power and that much of the electricity generated in the basin will be exported it the rest of Ethiopia Therefore, the partem of generation and transmission will be deterrm
by the location and size of future dams and their associated hydroelectric plants, and the location of inter-regional connectors
Since the optimum sue of an individual hydroelectric plant will undoubtedly 
power than can be used in its immediate area, it is expected that these
together in networks to promote a more efficient pattern of utilisation This has Ljtjepemta1 in the case of the Sor River plant As these networks develop, it is likely that sma . r generating facilities will be phased out
Thehealth) (Annex 3D>
Basm, can make a
waIer and naturaJ resources of ,he
Powth,      urbanisation      and      t^nbutl0n         to         improvement      of      health      and      sanitation
' m0 #CCounI w'len dealin^^^^g «mp.«^X«y±P‘21ll'al'h
^^c’°PmCnt areas are a
is to provide an acceptable «■*£,,
the      grassvoott      level      hsTerJn      h         Mre        ,hro“8h         equitably      distributed      health
to irs Vlnc>w
amoved programme calls for changes th« «" WP
P0!’S h'al,h Mures. and clinicsw-
ct BASE AND development options
VOLUME n
pf
_——_
area, at present there is  no immediate need to increase the number of hospitals 
]j      thf      of      diagnostic      facilities      and      increasing      the      number      of      beds      of      the      existing
0
Isnp ^^
satisfy    th®    need    Taking    an    inventory    of    the    hospitals    in    each    wereda    will    indicate
l^itaJsmay j ments io how to make the improvements  To meet the requirements  of the LbefftaCt|h strategy  and considering the total population of the Basin, eg 2.2 million
number    of    required    health    centres    amounts    to    66    (15    existing)    and    the    required “n. to 404 (20S existing beahh stations)
service facilities  required for the entire development project will depend on the hie location of population settlements, the development of road transportation of ihe
?S>Sl^d implementation of the development options  proposed by  the Master Plan It is  not only ^existence of the health institutions  that is  important but also their accessibility  to the
Jation    that    will    ensure    the    proper    utilisation    of    the    health    facilities.    Often    times,    if    road ^nspoftation   is   not   available   the   existence   of   a   health   institution   may   not   achieve   its   goal   to Ileviste   the   health   problems   of   the   area   Developments   such   as   irrigation   will   draw   new   settlers imo    the    area    They    should    be    screened    for    diseases    they    might    bring    into    the    basin    All bcj.seholds   will   require   services   for   the   diseases   whtch   are   endemic.   Some   of   these,   such   as malaria and bilharzia, might increase
<5 Environmental Action Plan (Annex 4)
The Environmental Action Plan is  required to mitigate the environmental risks  or damages th# result from the development options  [ts  structure follows  the planning periods  adopted by the Master Plan
4S1 Immediate (years 1995 - 2000)
U W’ould be incorrect for a Master Plan to operate outside the jurisdiction of national policy National matters have first to be resolved in order to provide a legislative basis for subsets of
* nation - regions or Master Plan areas - to function. By corollary, it would be wrong for the
■ Plan to decide ar promote solutions to national issues that affect the Master Plan area local policy has to come from the top down Yet weaknesses in policy detract from the
it-frast^astcr ^an to propose improvements in water and natural resources and social para^ Pbs discuss national policy issues that adversely affect the environment
a
lama aster Plan area Failure to implement improved policies will result in irreversible io soil and water resources, wildlife, forests, and public health
^tenure
pTop ^,
ct
tlU t
I quires change Proclamation No 31 of 1975 made all rural land a public 
have bee ** pToc^arnadon came shortly after the major crop failure of 1973A74 and may Uie STanf11 3 Consetluence of rising concern about soil conservation .Among its clauses was UsiJffuci 'n8 ^Ce Usc °flan^ t0 a** who wanted to become farmers Although it accorded
^tre
no(  matters related to security of holding, right of transfer, and conditions of land use r. Cuiar'V Spc^1 Out One result was thai land reallocation and fragmentation became Problems
Mother w
livestock <cnf''Ct betw“n
typ« of land uses forestry, stale farms, settlement,
^jovemmem's current policy is one of retaining land ownership while granting
Biro-Akubo River Balin Integrated Development Muter Plan
JSJ
Chiptcr 4MSOmCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
^Ct While some of the problems that resulted from Proclamatton No 31 subsided for example state farms and community forestry plantations no l J land perceived as private, the essent.al link between farmer and land is Mil| In the Master Plan area, farmers maintain production either by
Iff*
0  TP pt*
0
Wl?
. practising short periods of cultivation alternating with brief period of f
•    expanding their fields into neighbouring forests, or
•    abandoning their fields and taking up farming in completely new toc«i
Missing is the sense of ownership that plays a key role in the development of h Why should a fanner maintain a plot of land if it is less costly and laborious fas' abandon his site and take up farming elsewhere'’
Different patterns of land tenure exist throughout the world, some of which are bett others Almost universally, experience holds that national land ownership contnbres^
rrJ
Al
or hut x 1 ,
diffuse, uncontrollable forms of land abuse. The link between farmer and land has to be
5
closely identified with individual survival if it is to lead to beneficial attitudes towards land '
Forestry
Closely allied to Proclamation No 31 was Proclamation No 192 of 1980 According to ths proclamation, there can only be either state forests or community forests, there was m provision for private forests One result was the tacit assumption that demand for forest products can be met only through the efforts of the community and the state As 1 1 consequence (here was little or no private forest development for much of the period leadirs to the present, and the demand for forest products was met through deforestation with almos , no plantation development Because state and community plantations often conflicted wA perceived views of land use, many were on land better occupied by agriculture, timber trespass was common
Forestry in Ethiopia is an under-managed, under-controlled enterprise New standard forest harvesting within limits of production are required There needs to developa balance between logging and timber growth Information about forests needs to e according to forest type, it is incorrect and inconsistent to lump natural °r
plantations as in some data sets
Forestry data within the Master Plan area are inconsistent and out-of-date the pe lt the land contains plentiful forests is wrong Only remnants of forests remain, an scattered islands Significantly, eight sawmills continue logging despite muc
vmg isappeared Before an effective forestry policy can be established, 0 to be a moratorium of industrial felling. The' state of the remaining natut. nth*- n . t0 ** determined; their boundaries established, their P yie*
, -^stn*
ntv
r
on frllM? kl
r
entS 311(1 priorities’such as wildlife habitat, need to be id
$<■
i VS i
“ *° *
S,iVICuto"’n 1,1
» ttal ~ generated by explot* not just harvesting
•■Akota liver Bain Integram Development Muter Platt ___________  IS?!K cfb*sEAND
development options
VOLUME II
1 park has prior precedence over other developments in the lower basin, yet site of irrigated areas and reservoirs A decision is required on the future
the prop03 fi|i |g^tion were to gain precedence over the park, the presence of t j of the pa cont-nue to affect the well being of irrigated farming elephants and other
tflifc woul rAHtinue to use their traditional migratory corridors; monkeys and birds
information     about     the     density     of     wildlife     and     their     migratory     habits     is     lacking     In ,ihis'tBW           of       up-to-date       knowledge,       the       Master       Plan       recommends       a       moratorium       on e ’^about irrigation and its related developments such as roads until
, i wildlife census and mapping
•jve been conducted and
:i a decision has been taken about
of      migratory      corridors      of      areas      proposed      for      irrigation the continuance of Gam b el a National Park
Ifnowranwnt decides  in favour of irrigation, then considerable investment will be required
•oreduce     the     opportunity     for     conflict     between     farmers     and     wildlife     safe     migratory     corridors ,ill    have    to    be    esrablished,    canal    crossings    will    need    to    be    constructed,    ways    of    protecting
□tjpsfrom wildlife will be required.
Wtor supply and sanirarioh
Edruopia's  strategy  towards  water supply  and sanitation is  described in its  Letter of Sector Policy  by  the Ministry  of Water Resources  dated January. 1996 While aspiring to many 
■credible     objectives,     the     policy     contains     weaknesses     and     ambiguities     by     impinging     on     issues railed io human health and sectoral development
Most communities in the Master Plan area are without a safe supply of water, most
•Jmduils are without access to sanitation i e. access to a latrine While the policy letter fines adequacy of water supply, its main failing is a strategy on how that is to be achieved,
^ticularly in terms of finance Indeed, throughout Ethiopia, different communities have wed their own path: a national model is absent
laid
sanitation can be expensive. Indeed, they can easily consume between 30 Cen! a comrnun^'s utilities budget In Ethiopia water supply is subsidised by 
^■nai ' dominant policy towards subscribers being one of ability to pay Common
levied in terms of Birr per bucket, yet there is no mechanism for fee supply and 1 tesu^- payment of waler supply is under-subscribed by about half Water
sanitation require a better financial mechanism if they are to continue.
Nation is »
^nuaily unmentioned by the policy letter. This Master Plan has proposed a treatment in Lhe larger communities, supported by a mix of transported
’^^holds T* ^proved ventilated latrines at smaller communities and individual
l ^e weak link is finance Subsidies need to be lifted; community l es need to be strengthened
^?
n
w 'e^8c       about     the     quality     of     its     natural     waters     A     classification     scheme
,    ^dSlriai    enr,    c      A^hty    of    stream    flows    is    essential    to    controlling    the    effects    of    urban    and
!
A subsequent section discusses monitoring essential to that task in the
I *^1^8^---)--—:________________ _____ _____________________________________________________________
A
River Batin Integrated Devdopmeiit Master Plan
Chanter 4resource base and development options
.mmetl.Me is .he establishment of policy to tegulate the qualtty of garnering of finances with which to effect it.
waler$
Human health
•             c • c
Annex 3D Social Infrastructure m the Socio Economics section of this re
proposed modifications to government health services These consist of chanZS?11' d’5cu^ 6-tiered system to one of 4 tiers in an effort to expand services at the grass 8the 1*^
lower basin of the Master Plan area this may not be sufficient to control an CXDe ♦ In^
of water related diseases The weak links in the revised governmental Mrategx ^ finance, and (2) inadequate diagnostic facilities While these are matters foTV' 0) medium term, training of personnel will need to start if adequate diagnostic facir Sh°n ** properly function
4.5.2 Short term (yean 2001- 2014)
Short-term activities comprise those that are essential for the government to meet its rapid rural development .As part of the environmental action plan, they comprise motM*"K environmental data, establishing environmental standards, performing research conducting training
Monitoring
1 ,e*Ve ic
The quality  of environmental data reviewed for this  Master Plan was  barely  adequate for a study  of this  level, it certainly  is  not suitable for feasibility  investigations  During the Ax term it is  essential the different agencies  collaborate within the Master Plan area to implemer- monitoring and data collection programmes  These include gathering data for prospective dams, irrigation, general construction and roads, water supply  and sanitation, wildlife mineral resources, and upland agriculture Economy  will require that data collection concentrates only on projects with a reasonable likelihood of being implemented
(a) Dams
A permanent gauging station should be established within 10 km upstream of the resen.* inlet and another within 1 km downstream of the dam axis. Both gauges should be
to a permanent benchmark Both should contain staff as well as recording gauges. gauge being the primary gauge The downstream gauge should include a meteor station capable of measuring and recording wind travel and direction, temperatur humidity, rainfall, and pan evaporation.
.
r fiQWS
During the first year of operation at least 12 measurements  covering a range .g fiooc 
be taken, low to high This  will require that a gauging team take measuretnen alor* *
stage and inclement weather. Gauge operators should never measure hig
ui tviduals are always required Sediment concentration should be rr,ea^urinteKrate<ll011’’ integrating samplers for at least 5 profiles across the stream. Samples can c .
single container Separate bottles must be used for sediment and water q "leCirlcAl
depc?
S?k
Samplc s Should be fixed for J
analysis within 24 hours 
ld<^
■     ii     USCd       Samp'e       lemperature     needs     to     form     part     of     the     site nationally accepted pro forma should be developed
® Irrigation
ioklT t0 thC abWC’ a lhird Permanent gauging station will be req^'
bet**0 ju!
iXzx'Lr? * - ■’ have >■
K»ug . Depth integrated samples for water quality,
TAJ ULG Baro-Akobo Rivtr Basin
Inlegrawd
 t>^.
e opinellt
|         Master PI*11
■0, k      B-xSE and de
CE
velopment options
VOLUME U
’
. —— 
_
ired Th*5 latter m’£ht better done u5*n8 an
electrical meter As with
reQ ency of measurement should aspire to at least 12 goo
d measurements over a
during the first year Thereafter it should be of at l
east 4 flood flows and 5
Quality    and    depth    should    be    measured    using    a    network    of    piezometers    installed
Ofrtjtidwater q
LrnllOhOUt
|  measured at least once a month before and
. These shou d
b
* ra,j,he duration of the project.
General      construction      and      roads
® he of construction is  largely  one of making sure the job is  done withtn ^"nmental specifications: that Best Management Practices  (BMPs) are employed, that silt "’’Tare installed, that construction follows  the centre line and that remaining slope stakes ’Xue no unnecessary  widening, that fill is  compacted to specification, that drains  are Mircctly  installed, etc  An inspect.on following the close of construction should make sure that borrow pits are rehabilitated and that quarries are closed and correctly drained.
(fl Water supply and sanitation
Potential and existing water treatment plants  should operate a stream gauge upstream of their ibaraction point For large towns  this  should be a recording gauge linked to a primary  staff gauge, small towns  should utilise a staff gauge that is  read daily  At large and medium towns, daily  water quality  samples  should be taken upstream of the abstraction point and from within the distribution system Those at medium-sized towns  should be processed at large towns. Analyses  should be made of nutrient concentration, especially  nitrates, turbidity, and of the presence of faecal coliform and coliform organisms  Periodic  (bi-weekly) samples  should be made of constituents  related to aesthetic  water quality  and inorganic  constituents  that have tealth significance.
The quantity  of overflow from primary  sewage lagoons  needs  to be gauged and its  quality Stored It should involve a flume with recording uauge, its  chlorine content should be Measured
^oniioring    also    needs    to    record    quantitative    advances    in    sanitation,    particularly    the    number ventilated    latrines    installed    in    private    households    Health    visits,    and    disease    frequency    and
’JPeneed careful records to be kept
^Midlife
? °ductiv
r
,abitat       ^uaIity     should     be     assessed     in     terms     of     vegetanon     density,     composition,     and ®asc^ne        samples     should     be     conducted     at     locations     that     are     then     sampled
Pan of un' Sa^ OI1Ce every 2 3 years AVildlife censuses  also need to be taken, possibly  as 
“^“listrai VCrS'ly Tes4arch or technical training programmes. Before any  change of
^tisus  of vvildrr raaj°r 'ncurs’on into protected areas  by  roads, dams, or irrigated areas, a
TecOrded Wh
inventory of habitat needs to be conducted Poaching needs to be
" s     °utconie    Tt?    poactleys      brought    to    trial,    a    park    record    needs    to    be    kept    of    the    case    and J ne disposition cf trophies also needs to be recorded
^ luSin^,,efa^ resources
PrXeS
flying
l °iihOSC f°r damS need 10 be established in the vicinity of mines Hip wlIJ [Wtd 10 1I,clude Piezometer taps into the water table and any
M rS ThcstI lhen need to be maintained until such time as  a firm decision is 
._________ ___ ______________ ___
^Akotw River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
Chapter 4RESOURCE base and development options made about mining. If mining is not to be pursued, then the gauges 
COU d be
|    Z^'
Otherwise, they should be operated until at least several years after mine decnJ^'M Criteria related to minerals, especially iron, copper, arsenic lead, zinc, sulphatc conductivity require measurement Aquahc life should be censused befOre
periodically thereafter. Sampling should occur weekly during prospecting, dailv (1'n’n 1
' >8 i <
a r<1
mining, and weekly following decommissioning
(g) Upland agriculture
The soil conservation projects currently operates a set of runoff" parcels near Dizi Tv be expanded so that each of the 5 upland agricultural systems within the proi represented The impact of different land uses should be measured, particularly T ** ” and protection forest The research needs to be expanded to include a plot in peri/3' fallow in line with standard procedures (see Lal, 1985) Monitoring needs to
yields, fertiliser and insecticide use, prices, and farm household revenue in order understand the socio-economy of soil conservation.
r
* a^ne
0 ben"
A serious study needs to be undertaken of the effect of coffee cleaning upon water qualm At least several observation stations  are required upstream and downstream of representatise coffee pulping factories, and should involve weekly  samples  taken over a period of at leas one year Parameters  sampled should include DO, pH, 5-day  BOD, temperature, discharge turbidity, and benthic  life, during active coffee preparation the frequency  should be changed to daily  These same parameters  should be measured at coffee factories  that have installed mitigations (see Section 5 in Annex 4 Environment)
fhj Health
Disease frequency requires careful monitoring within the Master Plan area This will be assisted by the establishment of diagnostic health centres in the vicinity of mijor impoundments and imgated areas Incoming workers need to be screened for infecticos diseases
Standards and specifications
Ethiopia subscribes to the water quality and quantity standards of the World Heal Organisation (WHO) While this is adequate for human health, the Master Plan proposes water be used for other activities, most notably agriculture (coffee fermentation), generation, and irrigation Each of these requires water of a different, not necessan y standard than that used for drinking. Noxious substances resulting from tber
anaerobic wastes in reservoirs, for example, can make the water unsuitable for s be can corrode hydroelectric turbines Similarly, water quality for coffee fermentauo
o reasonable quality, yet recycled fermentation water can actually speed the
process Thus, in the Master Plan area, three standards emerge: clean, natur
suitable for agro-mdustrial use, and water suitable for irrigation The st subsequent classification of natural waters  would enable enforcement authors mfracuons and prosecute polluters
idin^r^tiL«?an proposes 3 nun,ber of activities that pose a risk to the en Practices (BMPs?^rCl$Ve^ Slmpic These rcAuirc the execution o ^nstn^^ sites, control rvil *?Ose°bjectlve « to control the production of sedimen
pi
iti>
roaTJTdra n^
^^ces, reduce soil erosion, de)i^
roadway dratnage, etc These are rules of construction behaviour, yet B^
y
156cE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
VOLUME n
The
National
Environm
ental
Pro
tection
Auth
ority 
sh
ould
draw
up
ib^0’     'C.     that
guide
licensed
contractors 
in
their
execution
of
projec
ts 
Monit
oring
then
0
^cai' ^ j g the B
nsur n
MPs are p
roperly carr
ied out,
Wircfi lt1vestigations require better information about human health and anthropology.
f'*5''5' ■ and socio-economics within the Master Plan area The following paragraphs 
o f knowledge that affect the selection of development options. They are
J 'be^s t0T research that ret)uire time and ^vestment to resolve.
I f/umon health
J      ions    section    discussed    the    role    of    the    Soil    Conservation    Project    in    assisting    agricultural jtvdopTtient    in    the    project    area    In    addition,    the    Master    Plan    proposes    importing    Tsetse raistmt   livestock   from   West   Africa   for   use   in   animal   traction   in   the   lower   basin   There   are   4
tvM$ of tsetse flies  and 5 types  of trypanosomes, including the Gambian and the Rhodesian forms  of the disease The tolerance of West African livestock  to East .African forms  of the iisease is  poorly  understood
t   is   unlikely   that   irrigation   can   take   place   in   the   lower   basin   without   an   improved   ability'   to control    major    water-related    diseases    This    Master    Plan    assumes    this    will    not    occur    prior    to year   2020,   it   could   be   longer   Certainly,   research   on   the   control   of   malaria.   Schistosomiasis, Onchocerciasis,      dengue,      Leishmaniasis,      and      other      illnesses      is      required.      Of      particular inportance      is      the      disparity      between      resistant      (indigenous)      and      non-resistant      (settler) populations
Anthropology, sociology socio-economics 
..,          .             ~
The Master Plan proposes developing its lower-basin irrigation by using a 1
son-indigenous labour with a minority of indigenous Settlers were not we come in
tasin during the drought years and civil unrest was reported At this time their response iogMion and the possible loss of recessional agriculture is unknown
framing
A receding section discussed training of individuals who will become active in the diagnosis treatment of water-related diseases Another group of individuals requiring miningj will
* those active in the monitoring of natural resources This could be accomplished as in 'itia! phase of feasibility investigations.
,
^bifrty    studies    will    be    required    of    a    number    of    dam    sites.    While    the    environmental    nsks 
such activities as soil surveying far irrigation or core drilling far
Cex 4 d° 15056 S°me hazards These reqU're thC apphcaUOn °f thC BMP * a Ut
will see an expansion of agricultural practices, forestry, and 1'vesl^^?’n
of catchment protection and improved resource productivity These acwmi
ProQ?""1111 lo catchment hydrologic condition, particularly soil «oswn “dmC
The critical consideration far each of them is finance for staff and equipment.
316
B *n>Akobo River BuSq Integrated Development Mister Plan
Chapter 4rESOIUCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
V0 ^t Q
Medium term 0
$ee the c0nstrucll0n and
projects that offer econo heakh
Within    the    medium    ter™    financial    returns    While    water    resources    are    in      the      ?
also important efjOtI
of development, allied s 
basin js un lke
|   ly t0 be successful without ,
resource    development    i1    diseases      wch    as    malaria    and    Onchocerciasis improved capacity to con
of environmental risks that is much different from
project coMmai"”*" «'** appHcMion of
BMPs and
iescnW
Son conswcuo"
‘ , he environment involve such occurrences „
sot
nSmgf"*'*’*
? SZLtion due to anaerobic conoi
^conditions developing in resetvots b-enkdot™ «
Thcse Mn be miUgated require
de8^ment    and    sanitation    plants,    P.    ribed    in    .Annex    4    to    Volume    HI    Environment
trta
a F X“ to"perform the miugat.ons ^ck 
P
^tion of activities and pnncip
funding is likely to prove a false economy
by the
^■“dtewgirlal ddeelday byptheooMrrlesetv which it w«s intended
for example, may be unsuitable further
Monitoring will require expansion in order to measure the performance of dams  rd irrigation This  will be essential to the ultimate development of water resources  scheduled for the final period of the Master Plan
/. 5.4 Ultimate (yean after 2035)
Ultimate implies  the full, optimal execution of water resources  for irrigation, water suppij and hydropower It us  unlikely  to happen in the absence of complete disease control chi unrest, predations  by  wildlife, and uncompromising performance by  resources  developed during the medium term The mitigations follow those described above.
p (S
r'“   “
< Appendix ®). atauntettaf
^me nationally Data coUeaioa,
1 "6'200°-the coa °fwliich u’;,i*
COn       e 10
^J“     toe end of the plannino
rescarch wil1 commence during yeat W
-. k       by the Master Plan
borw
-     2035 Except for medical research, is
vear
multmatioMlly    co-ordinated    effon    of     medicaJ      research    are    assumed    to    be    pin    of
and operarional
finance Iies exterior to the Master Pte
y2Q20    for    irrigation    This    lane    COmmcnce       during    year    2015    for    hydropower    nd
inn—?10
constraints to aSSUmes that disease control, wildlife policy, w*
—.................................................... ...
158BASE and development options
volume n
VMALVSIS OF DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
-1 introduction
j 11 Population implications
phe population of the Project Area. is  a little over 2 million (1995). and will rise to 5.3 million in 2035. The detailed numbers  by  type of residence, wereda, zone and region, for
.ears   1984-   1993,   1995.   2000,   2015   and   2035,   are   presented   in   Annex   3A   in   Tables   3   (rural areas), 4 (urban areas) and 5 (total)
This  increase corresponds  to an average growth rate of 2 2% per year, i e 2 05% in rural areas  and 4 03% in urban areas  One of the major consequences  of this  population change will be the threefold increase in the population density, which will be 70 people per kuri globally, and 60 in rural areas, by 2035.
The    average    is    not    high    in    the    Abbay    Basin,    more    than    half    of    the    weredas    are    densely populated (more than 100 inhabitants per sq.km)
5.1.2 Population densities
Rural densities will vary, on average, from one zone to another
the   lowest   densities   will   be   in   Mocha   and   Maji   zone,   with   respectively   8   and   11   people   per km3,
«
relatively low densities could be found in the Upper Basin, mainly in its western fringe
1
om north to south Asosa zone (51 people per km ), eastern Wellega i e Arjo zone (45),
/°re 20116 (67), Bench - Gimira zone (36), and Gambeia Region in the Lower Basin (46);
J gher densities may be found in the central eastern part of the Upper Basin and around
3
e P> Illubabor zone (153 people per km ), Buno Bedelezcne (139), Shekicbo zone (134)
onk' ^5ll’es- which take account of people living in towns, may  not be very  different, the
- major difference relating to Shekicho zone, whose density may be 183.
Gimb
zones may have a density of more than 100 people per km3 Kelem (101),
^ensit     ‘     ^ubabor     (172),     Buno     Bedele     (ISO),     Shekicho     (183).     And     only     2     will     have     a V inferior to 40 Maji and Mocha with respectively 13 and 9.
Urbanisation
As h
^tinr ,atl°ve’ ^e number of people living as city dwellers in the Project Area would be
The urb' 7‘> hut even so, this number may remain relatively low: 780,000 people in 2035
an rate would be multiplied by 2, but it would hardly reach 15% in 2035.
r          Age       and       sex
age ,
R ’°halit     .     °     Se*     structljre     may     not     change     much     despite     expected     fertility     transition     and     new - conditions In 2035, the population may still be very young (even if the median age
------ —-____________________ ___________________
Uaro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Develop meat Master Plan
159
Chapter 5RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
rises from 17 to 21 wars in rural areas and to 18 in urban areas) The would be smaller than today 
Pr°PoniOn of
it
In rural areas, in 2035, 1,962,000 people, or 44% of the population will be Una compared with 772,000, or 47% in 1985 (that is 2 5 times more), and the 15
nearly the same number as 50 years later) The number of women of renrod 1985 (‘hit is years) would be 1,049,000, or 46.3% of the total female population cornoar'T''6 ^5-49 (38 8%) in 1985, i e 3 times more This explains why natality will exneri- e° W'th 31 S.OCC
decline than fertility 
In urban areas, in 2035. 286.332 people, or 37% of the population wo M against 49,403 (46%) in 1985 (that is 6 times more), and the people oveAs Undo 15 would be about 17,103 (2.2%) against 5,485 (5.1%) in 1985 (that is 3d number of women of reproductive age (15-49 years) would be 207 ?sn
why natality will decline so slowly in spite of a fairly rapid decline in fertility * ****
nce a s'°wer
years««P
Tr <
The possible presence of refugees  in the Project Area is  not included in the abc-.e mentioned numbers, because this  phenomenon may  decrease within the next few years  0- the contrary, assuming that the probable number of refugees would be constant, and equal to approximately 100,000 people
•    the  consequences  of  this  presence  within  the  Project  Area  would  not  be  important  is  at refugee population in 1995 would be 4 5% and 1.9% in 2035;
•     locally,  the  consequences  might  be  serious  in  Gambela  region,  where  the  camps  at located,  they  would  be  equal  to  54%  of  the  1995  population  figures,  and  8  1%  of  the  tail population    in    2035    Without    immediate    appropriate    measures    (about    land    tenet environment   protection,   employment,   etc   ),   this   burden   might   involve   destractior   ct available arable land and remaining forest
Would this be a reality, our population forecast could be incorrect, since Gambela Rep-- would be turned into an out-migrating area for example, if Gambela experienced
rate equivalent to the natural increase over the next 40 years, its population won to 550,000 people in 2035, less than half of the project’s forecast
5.2 Spatial analysis
and     limitations     of     the     environment     can     be     better     understood     witn     .     the     p!
---------------------------------- --------- --—--
•    of    the    geu5'    "Ljoal
information system (GIS) By “comparing" different parameters extent, the GIS provides a clearer portrait of the situation as we as more detailed analysis
digital
d PfC$1 The following section describes  the steps  that were taken for this  an.^|)C j-e!e^nt results in tabular form Volume IV of this report (Map Album) contain
TAM. I G Baro-Akobc River bMw hnegrated Development Master Pl*11
1AHBASE AND development options
volume n
farrnI, ’
r
system concept is a natural division of land based on the distribution of acTjces and its limitations caused by terrain soil elevation and climate The
first applied by Westphal (Wageningen, 1975), and described in his A^ricvlrural
except Ethiopia. As these systems are defined along natural boundaries, taking into existing cropping patterns and peasant farming customs they are discrete.
1:400
b e unlt5
|        which can be entered into the GIS (Geographic Information System) data
qis has compared the different parameters which have a specific extent and
provides a record of the various farming systems
The farmine systems  recognised in the lower and upper basins  have been plotted onto rhe Administrative Divisions  Map - 1995 (Volume IV, Map 2) The combination of these two ibemes  on one map allowed the preparation of tabulated data. These include the distribution effarming systems  per wereda and for each recognised farming system the land capacity  and land use distribution per wereda. These tabulations  have been used to prepare a number of useful maps (Volume IN' refers), these include;
•             Farming Systems - 33,
•             Total Population Density 1995 and Fanning Systems - 34,
•             Population Support Capacity Model and Farming Systems - 35,
•             Land Capacity and Farming Systems - 36,
•             Land Use and Farming Systems - 37
Considering the limitations  caused by  the mapping scale, the testing of Farming Systems  data against the available data is  a useful exercise. For instance, the facility  to check  land ''filiation themes  with population densities  on the basis  of wereda boundaries  will provide geographical indications for further more detailed studies that will be required
Dat
asource
W 6                             systems have been identified in the Basin area: they have been described by
Phal    in    1975    and    reflect    the    differences    in    the    agro-eoonomic    systems    of    the    different Cl0 ’«hnic groups 11
are described      as follows
Grain plough complex of Welega (cereals farming type),
Enset root complex (tubers are dominant, cereals only minor and enset
2D               P^sent),
Enset root complex (cereals are dominant, tubers only minor and enset
3           present),
(Anuak), 3B (Bena), 3ME (Mekam) Shifting cultivation (sorghum dominant), astoral complex (system almost wholly dependent on livestock)
^ es,PhaJ 
,° r
Australian Agncukuial and Management Cy, Pty. Lid (1987), quoted from
gnculiural systems in Ethiopia » Wagcnmjjeii (1975).
G ^>n>AJcobo River Build Integrated Development Mister Plan
161
Chapter 5resource base and development options
IB
sorghum and maize are grown under traditional irrigation in the exten bottomlands (between February and July)
in the lower zone between 1.700 and 2,400 m teff dominates the cereal mi and field peas dominating the pulses (20%) Coffee is grown around Girnb' and 2000 m under remnant forest
in the middle zone from 2400 - 2900 m wheat and then barley assume the d
VOL^»
cu]liv bet *een ]$,y
With   increasing   altitude,   pulses   increase   their   share   in   the   crop   mix'?Snant     Io|«
chickpea, horse bean)
above 2900 m barley is dominant together with horse bean
5/# ) (v«cli
The  cropped  area  varies  between  0  99  ha  in  the  highest  zone,  and  1  8  ha  in  the  ,dai
In the lowest zone, the cropped area is 1.39 ha.
ine middle^
Livestock  have  an  important  role  in  the  highland  cereal  complex  specially  for  drauefr The number of oxen is an important factor for expanding the cultivated area
2C
C °*':
Enset  root  complex  is  almost  completely  restricted  to  the  Cushite  speaking  people  of  the south west highlands between 1600 - 2300 m
At wide spacings coffee, chat and cabbage are interplanted
In 2C complex, tubers are the dominant crops, cereals are only minor and enset is present
•     a shifting cultivation of yams and taros is practised
•    cereals (maize and sorghum) are cultivated in a crop mix with enset around the homesieai
•     fields are cultivated for two cultivation cycles then fallowed for 1 -3 years
•     livestock play a very minor role
•     terracing, irrigation, manuring and rotations are unknown
•      these  systems  are  followed  by  the  Gimira  people  in  the  high  rainfall  and  dense  .orest areas in south-west Kefa (highlands)
In 2D complex cereals are the dominant crop with enset and other tubers assur secondary role
•     this is followed by the Jima group of Oromo people in Welega, Illubabor and Ke^
•     teff is the dominant cereal with maize and sorghum, finger millet, wheat an much less important
•     other field crops are lentil, chickpea and taro
•     around the homestead are enset, galla potato, sweet potato, yam and veget3
•     the main cash crop is coffee
•     land preparation is by plough and livestock densities are high between 1 units per km2
•     cropped area per farmer 0.91 ha
. ,es
jqo li'*^
3Aand3B
ce$alor-
. below 1,500 m 3A on the Baro plains, the Anuak cultivate the alluvi^
Baro River double croppmg maize and beans and single cropping
Berta people, the crop mix is sorghum, teff and chickpea
'
TAMS-ULG Baro- Akobo’BASE and development options
volume n
_______________________________
Me Mekam sorghum, beans, tobacco and coriander, plus coffee
* ..         , mmnound garden is found near the houses
'^'^udesthe^ofoxen
' T formation about groundnuts and cotton
I
fa pastoral complex  refers  to those pastoral systems  which are wholly  or almost wholly indent on livestock  But it is  recognised that the pastoralists  living in the Baro plains  are ^cultivating the banks of the rivers (flood recession cropping)
GB processing
pa; farming systems  layer was  overlaid to the ‘Administrative Division of 1995" map |Vdume IV) allowing the calculation of the distribution statistics  as  in Table 5-1 The atnbute table file is imported from Arc/Info (.par) to MS-Excel where pivot tables are
Sited   data   are   presented   in   Table   5-1   for   each   of   the   68   wereda   included   in   the   study 
1
area The distribution is  given in both total area (km )
and   tn   percentage   of   the   wereda.   The
listribulicn is mapped on “Farming Systems’ (Volume IV)
U2 77ie Population Density
Did source
Hie population distribution and its projection were done from the population census of 19&4
^be last census, 1994, was not yet available) by the Consultants (see Population Aspects,
tonex 3A) Population data (total population, rural population, densities, growth rate) are 1
W of the GIS, on a wereda basis Volume IV includes density maps from 1984 to 2035 for
the total population and from 2000 to 2035 for the rural population The growth rate between
1584 and 1993 is also mapped
kIS processing
A *w   attribute   was   created   in   the   population   GIS   file,   regrouping   the   population   density   per in only rtyee classes:
-i <20 inhabitants/kmZ
□ 20-60
□ >60 This themg ‘
Total p0D
!S
|  ^en 0Vcrlaid to the farming systems described in section 5 2.1 and mapped on Puiauon Density 1995 and Farming Systems’1 (Volume IV)
i^nitj
Mrne
sv^Crla^ a"°ws the production of Table 5-2, showing the population distribution per
Wer
Cc a
|
eiri and
1
P^ wereda for the year 1995 By reading this table, one can characterise
ln terms of importance of each farming system ,>l(rodu •* °PUIat*on Support Capacity Model
Sloped h'-°^ P°P l
u at'on Support Capacity (PSC) in agricultural planning has been ^ood and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) The
River Basin Integrated Develop mt nt Master Plan
163
Chaptersresource base and development options
Table 5-1              Correspondence between Wereda and Fa
rmi ”8 Sy,,,,,
« rrr<»
Nan*
id
lam
1
Mg S'
J
>•* 4
fl ika
A4*
lira
1
■•"I
Smi
riw
14
rra
>
*S]
1
1'
krsu
i
100
VirU
j
bo
t
69
11
) "[
j
201
0
741
14
•3
27
4
125
9
|1
16;
11
5
-0
r-
KnfxC'
J
*91
214
roi
4|l
41 '
11
IJ
.ni liar--
«
J
2b
9
Gmi*
192
-•
JI
IJ
*
KtrJ.-f? * «W
»
4)0
—
124
b
Pa- U atari
9
4|
4*2
—
1
1
0
Date Seta
14
M
4 »'•
13
—j
Lac Kjat
II
IM
44
1
J2
1
M
Vn-
12
5M
4?2
4’
S2
4
4
i
llawa Geun
I)
392
so
SC
Am Gaijo
H
191
IOC
—
B«»KUUaB>
II
J9?
IOC
k> IXflMp
14
n
114
10
90
—
Itafc
r
JI
49B
9
M
Lad Am*
ii
ni
Ire
Gonbi
it
1*6
IU0
Haru
24
1-
100
—
Nolt kata
21
104    KU
•<.
10
IJ
♦
Meis
33
'*
61
49
Sack
13
144
6T
M
1
1.
Pans*
24
TO*
5)
A 90
14
!1     4
41
2
SagaX Safe
25
14
55^
124
IO
11
K
24
III
149
<•
40
1'
Dwwa
r
192
;«
42
51
Mm
35
241
379
147
J)
41
19
Haras*
257
iH
H
44
1 ay»
M
b1
396
i?
•1
Bath.-.
JI
I4K
164
4'
)1
Wt
35
14-
2*9
55
■4
22
Mata
n
4
90
.’4’
I
3?
•—
yj
Ate
34
:b
io     H"
439
35
44
•*
lata Late
LJ4
569
19
11
Si>iera
)♦
130
M
io
ki
Sipnc                                       F
120
6i|
16
64
Selema
j»
24)
219
D
4
Chon
J4
-4'
;xi
9«
45
Dep
40
H
i;
4
13
11
)
Nov
41
147
ICG
Vata
42
lb
12
4n
145
6
4
1
21    66
MaAa
41
iei
412
21
M4nda
44
12)
101
M
I’J
—
> •»
45
lb
111
47
17            u
’«uTuh
44
411
241
6’
Jj
uawaa
4?
52
M
60
44
■ctaaTaartM
41
11
210
101
10
.'6
azx.
4*
in
13’
il
41
41
41
4
SnevaOara
'1
isi
Us                      40
l
II
0
4
Gm Fanta
SI
rt       244 ♦1
•■4
10
4!
13
12
Sbecc
D
140
363
ii
Ter «■-,« S uhi
M
4i
mI
27
111 116
1
6*    "2
U     10
Bn
55
1)9
4
T|i
t?
31
(jaafca
yr
?DI
Jd?
S'9
h
43
19
34
SI
IM
loo
Dutau
w
94
411
H
■1
"n.and
u
di
2
100  0
m*UJ Map
41
!M
n
62
31
«hea
42
2*4
1
4H
)
1*
IJ
0
HaeX
43
1*1
I
lb’
•J*
44
• ?* )
100
Akjax
45
jT4‘
joo
2
OofA icr
U
wi
(i
291
4
5
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9
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lot
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1
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an
•table -- -----------
4?
?
_____
|0b
:3
■r
*■
1
•
—
t
r“—
—* hrr-
-£
*ro-Akobo River Buin Integrated Development Master Plann
iCE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
* ____________
VOLUME 11
''■^
Tabk 
Population Density and Farming Systems
Vcfrda Name PcCrjlMJom I'PJJ
Kur^ut
AffrtJ
Rrp
OIlLet.i
Anfilf
Ti-u Har^
pewa Ke^e
Mel j* WeJeI
'Dak Wabera
Z>Je Sedt
E -Lin KJe
Hm Litrir-
Xyra CruljKi
Bujl MwMem:
Bnji pirateji
l naw
YwMn
60*39
&D6JJJ
L-blo Aubi
Nek Mba
[Jae-inu ____
Sirpe  A  Sado
riiio
[Kircec 
Meru
Horurriu
13 1
l>di Lalo
Saylor.
Sagna
Seirma
Chwa
Miiha
4 j JO*
Mahal    sun
Lranbela
AJfcbc
•jur A Jar
iMMft
ar °'Akob  River Basin Integrated Devd
o
npmeat Mister Plan
Chapter 5
165resocrce base am. development options
VOI%
system was prepared as part of the Master Land Use Plan It j  described
s
Report No 1. 1988 The concept is a useful tool to identify areas that a'" ' '   «chn
h ir T
determined levels of population densities that would be too high f          n«ar
Or
31 Or
resources of the area to support a specific population density This informal'   ''     uf’
S0   ind
in connection with data on land and soil degradation In other words the PSr  ° ^
Cu
advance warning that a particular area could be incapable of supporting   f          PtovS
a
COul<1
of population within a specified period Appropriate counter-measures °           de*-.'
rCCasted
conditions could then be taken
,0 remed  ’
v
Further details concerning the PSC model is provided m Volume II, Chant
addition Chapter 3, Section 3.2.4 provides a discussion of the data base aenL’ P3ge 9’l) help of the Geographic Information System (GIS) The data base has been » ***
3
three existing sets including the ARDCO-GEOSERV GIS, the Selkhozpromex^ *^ study, and the Woody Biomass Inventory and Strategic Planning Project (WBiSpJ50^ ULG collated data collected in the field from central and local government ofTi P) Woody Biomass study was probably the first to create an extensive data base thaT- population support capacity model This model, together with other data files extrS?
the WBISPP were processed into Arc/Info files These files were then integrated with th TAMS-ULG analysis, forming the basis for new interpretative data, that included combiL basins soils and land units, land capacity and other thematic interpretations 
lat “
L/IMM
The Woody Biomass Inventory and Strategic Planning Project (WBISPP) has provided GIS data on the Population Support Capacity (PSC) of the study area The PSC of the WBISPP covers most of Ethiopia and should thus be used as a reference, even if the level of detail might appear insufficient for some localised studies The model integrates the land use, the farming systems distribution, the physiography and population projections made at the national level
The classes are as follows 
u Critical
□   At capacity
□    At capacity in 10 years 
C At capacity in 25 year
3 No pressure
Proving
* he WBjjpp dj •
tOl « rnodidid^,00^ data ^'Sr^ni^i 2 Wcreda basis- which were digitised at
Ethiopian Cen^i ef WCredas These were^^ °
l
the Bar°-^obo Projects GIS acco^
Results 
/rV'^rteofJeorXs)7aWed'*’b“'0"‘C>sfl'h"^euPd<inmgi ■Po
Stallst,c Authority (iqq-> '8‘tlSed at the scale of 1 50,000 from maps </* Population census cartography).
j i ^t,On S^PPort CapuaPciptoy rpt eCrapwaeci rety aaa.nd Farming Systems (
pu al o
TAMS-ULG
166BASE and development options
volume n
Tabb 5-3 Popuhlion Support Capacity per Wereda
Were da
ID Name
PbpiiLEnfi Support Cjpadiy
]              Klirraui
1             A«>«
5             Anfilb
12          S*yo
13          l£jwi Gclan IS          Boji Cbetorii
i 16          Boji Dwmeji IS          ijdo Arabi
19          Gimbi
20          Hmu
26          BUo
2S          Mcru
45             YckJ
40          them
53          Shew
54          Tcmcnp Yazhi
47             Gvwbu
J               Begi
4             Gidnini
9            DtfcWabcn
10            DaJcScdi
14          Ayra Gullso
17            YtfMo
2J           Nok Kab«
24          Danmu
2?          Durene
29          Hurumsj
J2           Bure
39          Cbcra
4ft          fie-tth* Tinlsho 5]            Shew* Gimirt 67          Abo be
70          Bedele
6            Juns Hwu
7               Giwi Kcbc
8            Mttogr Weld 23          Sachl
15          Sopc Jk Sodo
31          ixuiO
Ft . . L.„
34          Ale
40          Dep
65            Akobo
66          Gag SL Jar
II           Lalo Kile
22          Mcka
30          Yayu
33          Htfu
15          Didi Lalo
36          S-iylcm
37          Sigmr.
31            $e*nna
41          Noon
42          Sale
41          Muha
44          Anderaeha.
4b          Gesha Tdku
52            Gum Ftfda
55          Bun
57          Gtihi
5 ft         Galdis
59            S hatha
60          Tirauud
61          Mihai Map
62          QvsbeLi
63            lUng
M             Jiiav*o                            r 6ft            G&fcre                            r
69          Gera 
!
Cnucitl
CntiraJ
Critical
Critical
Critical
Crtttari
Critical
CnrxaJ
ChikA
Critical
Critical
Critical
Critical
CnticaJ
Critical
Critical
At Capacity
At Capacity within 10 yn
Ar Capacity wtAin 10 yn
At Canary with® 10 yn
A) Ctpwiry within 10 yrs
Al Capacity with tn 10 yn
At Capacity vxidiui 1-5 yn
A.r Capacay widhm ilOyn
Ai Capacity wriiin. 10 *S
A1 Capadry within 10 yn
Al Capacity wafaai 10 yn
Al Capacity with® 10 yrs
Al Capacity wsSmp J 0 yn
At Capacity vrtih® 10 yrt
Ar Capacity within 10 yn
Al C^acry within I Gyn
Al Capacity within 10 yn
At Capseay within 25 yn
A! Capacity withrn 25 yn
At Capacity writ® 25 yn
Ar Capacity wiifcm 25 yn
At Capacity wiihh 25 yn
At Capacity wiLua 25 yn
At Capady widun 25 yn
At Cyrri within 25 yn
At Capacity witiuc 25 yn
At Capacity within 23 yn
Mb Pic&j.urr
Mb Pressure
Mo Pressure
Mb Prasut
Mo Prsswe
Mo htnure
Mo Prewwt
Mo Pressure
MoPtasure
Md Pressure
Wo Pressure
Wo Pressure
MbPrecnare
Mo Presrari
Mo Pmswr
Mb Pkhve
Wo Pressure
Mo Pressure
Mb Preasnre
Mo PtEEEUrt
Mo Pressure
Mo Premre
Mb ItaKET
Mo Pressure
Mo Phjjute
Ul <5 Barv-Akobo
River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
Chapters
167RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
JJrDCO-GEOSERV and Sc!kh0Zprdate^AMS-ULG produced a new classification of
a ie. accuracies and d _
.
;S’’X —•"
f lhe prodUCU0n of an homogeneous
2A and SKUon 5 4 2 in ,h,s*"
for the study area The land use units were
~“-
G1S processing
The soils units of the Upper Basin map were recoded to fit these 19 classes as w suitability map of the Lower Basin. For generalisation purposes and for the eceX^f cartography, the 19 classes were grouped into 7 classes
C   Annual with some perennial crops        1
C   Non-Agricultural low lying areas            2
_   Perennial crops and limited grazing      3
C   Forested land
□ Catchment protection
□ Mainly non-agricultural
4
5
6
Forested land on rock outcrops              7
The land use classification of the WBISPP was recoded by TAMS-ULG to better fanning systems under analysis as follows
L      Open woodland
□
□
□
n 
uJ
Dense woodland Cultivated area (>60%) Cultivated area (<60%) Perennial crops Disturbed forest
Very disturbed forest
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Capability(Stonmnri? o''erla,d ><> diefarming systems and die result is mappel o" 1
> <«to mm* land capacity) Md Farming Sys|en)s..
[V)
Results
Table 5-4 (9
study area, of both theb^t th® d,stnl,ulion
in
2
in km , for each fanning system Pro
capability and the land use per wereda
TAMS-ULG Binj-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master PI**
168base and development options
VOLUME II
Tables 5-4 Land Capacity and Land L'w Distribution per Wereda
5-4(1) 5-4 (2) 5-4(3) 5-4 (4)
(5) 5^   (6) 5-4 (7)
5-4 (S) 5-4 (9)
Farming System 1B Farming  System  2C  pl Farming  System  2C  p2 Farming  System  2D  pl Farming  System  2D  p2 Farming    System    3Apl Farming  System  3A  p2 Farming   System   3B Farming System 4N
a ro-Akobo River Basin Inicgraied Dcvdopmetu Master Plan
169
Chapter 5TbWc 5-4(1), Load Captdfy and Laibd L'w DBtrilMilfan prr Wrrali
I <mJ L'qi»-»n CJm J 
Ljuirf r/te CfauM*i
L.wid <           Llm J
Lewd rifwity Cl mi 4
L*bJ Ute Chiiej
Land Cqncily nlai 5
I mil Llad CUiMi
1               7
1
1                  7
1                  2iJ M
2OT
171
IW
147
153
IO
if
-------------- -
—t     I ml
J
::                           ___ nil
J JI
444 r
W
2J
774
HO
*4
JJ
5
J9
III
14
1*5
1*4
It!
41
W
N
17
I4L
27
J4
II
717
ITJ
M
m
J6»
--- J
—
»
11                 1
!•
44
L3
—
«
*1
3
II
3
U
7
a
66
34
135
ii
5
W
-
Mt
5
14
Jl»
LOT
5
a|
m
_______  list
not
735
•
J3
JZi
91
41
n
9*
a
121
j?
.14
4
LI
II
It
It
*
*
5
11
7
——  •
1
1
II
«*
I2J
JI
204
lit
11
12
51
12
JI
Lti
U
11
9
4
w
32
6
It
HI
1*4
1*7
107
HI
IfS
121
551
3*6
I5J
III
itii
iti
51
ill
545
H
■144
2*2
ill
1*7
55J
H                  24                 s:
1»T
0*
*S
L       US            112
2TO4                  IN
in*
7U
FARMING SYSTEM IB
TH!Table 5-4(2). Lind Capacity and I Jind Use Diitribulian per Wcrcdi
3 Total
and Capntlly Clou 4                          VToiM LandlhcCUatei
j Wcredi
43
49
51
52
53
54
55
57
SB
55
fit
61
F
SM
JI 1
15
136
252
HH
45
L-arai Cipiciiy Clw*
Jjnd t he CluttS
L J 1  1  * ■ ' 3
3
2
56
1
■   " i ;
3
591 —
615
MT — 212
eJ  67
•--
6
6
13
1 Total
U
ISA
l-und CipiCJty L'llll 3 Land Ute Cliiwn
]4
4ft|               5
94
22
63|
339
131
38
63
—-
653
H
31
61
93
123
197
1917
291
594
11   i
—
■
451 —
ISO
5?
211
36
19
37
11
121
41
42
144
161
210
563
37
6
63
6
70
104 
51
147
359
111
127
77
52
IBB
7
14
34
15B
52
61
45
r— - t-------- 24                   66
52
73
39
4
299
4
33
JM
34
164
33
12
bl
45
12
9401
1001
IM?             6T          956            351
49M
210
339             577
5
144             |I4            1459
7
71
262
24
372
FARMING SYSTEM 2C
niTable 5-4(J), Land Capacity and Land Use Oil tri bat ton per Wcreda
r~ ’ f
iJind Opacity CJmi 5
j 5 Total
Land Capacity Cka» 6
6 Tal.i
1 nfid Capneriy Clan 7
=
[
7 Tnlal | Grwd 1 vlalj
1------ -------
1                                  Liral Um Ctasei
l-nnd llMCIaua
Lund Um CIrimj
I Wcreda         1 J               I 7
5        T 6
r        1 2
345
12
—
11
49                    L_
SI                                     T] 7]
4
*r
II
1*
’1    5                 6
5
32
40
5
S3
r
2T1
30
34
39
143
41
123
39
176
17
71
19
s
32
171
19
170
M8
«
57
u
J*
■’1
6ft
II
76
17
33
30
_____
1R
33                19
34
31
14
<41
197
71
rrt
23
9
23
1
1
111
1W
477
1041
4QR
IMS
____
_________
___
9
131
5WI
139
4
Grand 1o4bI  ----------- sT
B1
HO
62
73
J 77
2011                 17
49                 1
130
419
93
19
71
19
I7D
441                   Mil
FARMING SYSTEM 2C<
1I■ to
f
i
to
I
«F
5
I
I
f
3
*
■ITittr
L-aiid Capacity nnd Lund I’ff Dislritiu I Ion per W«redn
I-------- '        1----------                l and Capacity CFms 1
/ 1 J ot al
Land Capacity Class 2
2 Total
Land Capacity Clui 3
3 Total f
1                                     —                        Lund Uwj CFiwes
j Wcreda 1—r-| 2 i—r~ 5 1 6 1~ 7 L
Land Use Clai«5
Land Use Clnsici
t2
6
1                  2                        3 1 - s    —I.  6                  I       —1                  J
7               I------------- 1
h                                    253
262
J93
105                     |
-
IOS]
119
---------------1
7                       126
r
5 210
S
f— JW  —                F 5
i------------ V
J
1
-62              162
—
-----_------              112
63
491
41
41
_________
104                38
21 162 991
119
*J
’1J
10                                  M                                1B7
ISJ
223
220
163
392
119
144
II
M9                  7                       64
12 JIB
13 25B
21
141                26
134
21               11
15
115
81
IB
124
20
122 21
Mb
7
L44
124
JS
258
243
171
22
24 499 49 221
21                                   II
32                                   16
42
52                                293j          1184
7
6
11
7
7
27
7
31
5B
39
53
37
361              313
DI 16 47 24
21
11
■7
152
H
25
II
39
115
164
39
17
12
31
GO 361
61
62 727
_________
----------
M
561
19 1414
74
—
—
46
712
11
16
7
MW
614
117
361
izi
115
2SB4
2191
274
—
68
1123
194
I5S
LIBI
194
162
249
4
15
—
61                              11}
66 235 2091
67                              755
162
61
53
10
141
97
152
■y
4
20
68
IS
-------------- -
10
32
—
17
22
id
<Jriif*d lolal
5033           3751            1007
231
12404
1411            162              346
1996
SKI
257]
127
66
761
50
iist[         441
FARMING SYSTEM 3Afrtb/c 5-4(7). lutnd Capacity •nnd U« DIMrihiiticm per Wcrtdtt
/          Land Opacity CMn I
/
Land (ije CJawc*
J
f 4 Total
Lind Capacity Cluu 5
5 Total
_______
Land Use (lanes
Land Capacity Class 6                1  6 Vttlall           LC7 T 7 Total 1          Giaad I olid \
1       13                     *       1 r  1       '
l.jJi J U K Clasfel
LU
r
1
3
67
I26
1
I
■J\
.
/
J_
1          Lj
1
1t 2J
f
/-
_
JW!                  «
M  [         20J *
IBT
930
613|
17461
i
2«
L
32
21
55
237
73
117
930
301
301
1443|
’■
171
119
297
347
255
877
22
73
23
73
23
76
76
H
20
11
20
7
__ J
--
12
11
41
6
25
<7
19
It
33
43
12
11
35
—
12
44
6
14
24
JI
503
1051
J 74
871
13
19
144
28
48
48
.—
—
21
5
5
___
1
92
w
72
647
1079
174
*71
U
43
92
111
-- — —
J
679
7|
896
II
103
166
2298
1938
496
1319
M3
2241
3419
3140
1466
450
6
L             <T
771
~5ir
24
29                   £               53
710
4151
319]               231
72
4565
48
____
22364|
FARMING SYSTEM 3A
JTable 5-4(8), Land Capacity and Land Use Distribution per Wercdn
1-------
Land Cap 1
1 t Total
] LC3
3 Total
LC-1
4 Tolit
LC5
STuhil
LC6
6 Total
Grund Total \
Land Use
I LU
LU
LU
Land
Use
( Wereda
1I3
I
1
1
1
3
1
2
3
m
181
85
85
146'
146
525
525
9371
686
10
696
51
51
116
116
353
353
1096
58
1154
2369
439
187
626
17
17
96
8
103
746
Grand Total
1306
197
1503
136
136
116
116
515
515
1717
66
1783
4053
FARMING SYSTEM 3BVTable 5-4(9)* Land Capacity and Land Use Distribution per Wereda
FARMING SYSTEM 4N•!ibase and development options
volume n
- desenbed above in sections
allocation of resources
^ Wal re. of each fanning system has been d<5 nblJ,« •„
,
5 2.2 The population density
‘   ’   1   The   Population   Suppon   Capacity   mode! 523
524      The land capability and the eun-nttia"^
" bwtd mto ategodes fouQwmg
Taking  into  account  20%  of  each  area  allocated  to  infrastmeturp  th- whi divided, for each farming system, in three categories as follows muis acrea*  has
e
,       agriculture land
i       catchment protection,    and
•      forest protection
Applying  a multi-criteria analysis the corresponding  land  resources have been  allocated,  from the five criteria mentioned  above The results are reflected  in  the tables in  Appendix  I Tahfo 5.5 below is a summary of these findings
Table 5.5 Prospective allocation of land resources in the Baro Akobo Basin
Firming
jyjtem
Land
capability 
group (1 to 6)
1 & 3
6
were da 66&67
Agriculture
(ha)
353600
17000 34000
196000 14300 280000 184000
Catchment
protection
(ha)
304300
Forest
protection
(ha)
128000
10754000
24000
(D
(3)
_Jg+4)_______ Wereda 42
Weredas 25^6^7^,30,32
O-6) Wcredis in Kalla
region 44-69 Wereda 52
Infrastructure
384 420 76] 300 357 700 460
77400                  77400
100000
40000
H’s. -                                                                                             44800
(3)
(1)
167800
422800 237500
”167300 487900
88000 340800
Cattle: 146100 112500
99500
111800
1057 594 j
I 44800 418 802 220
___________             55500        586500
1870
(<) From Appendix I Table 4 
(i) From Appendix I Table 5 
(s) From Appendix 1 Table 6
^asin Integrated Development Master Plan
Chapter SRESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
This table is subject to the following comments
a)            Agricultural land (annual and perennial crops) :
•  the figures describe the crop potential at a global level, which is the correct
a master plan , detailed figures should probably show regional and loc^ ■
leading to a reduction of the potential available resources
Ca  d
ifference,
• 
the prospects are limited to rainfed agriculture, the detailed allocation of
irrigated crops should be undertaken as soon as the necessary informan** ^*
05
available (allocation of water resources and identification of suitable soils) the '* amounts to 123,000 hectares that are emerging from the screening and could be
immediately in the planning process The schemes are mainly situated in the area ^
1  60
by the shifting cultivation fanning systems However, conflicts with the
National, Park have been recorded (Annex 4, Environment refers)
• 
the   future   allocation   of   land   resources   to   agriculture   land   does   not
e
xclude
it
from   the
future   and   optimum   size   of   the   small   scale   farm   or   of   the   estate,   t
his
quest
ion 
is   high -
, 
dependent    on    the    region    (physical    constraints)    and    on    the    available    labour    and    ohe- inputs (economic constraints)
b)            Non agricultural land
•         In   farming   system   3   A   (shifting   cultivation),   the   areas   proposed   for   catchment   protection and     afforestation     are     probably     optimistic.     These     lands     consist     of     plateaux     and     thetr escarpment    edges    that    extend    into    plains    The    plateaux    are    densely    populated    and    urdr estate,     private     coffee,     maize     and     taro     cultivation     The     lowlands     are     thinly     populate! Water is scarce Soils are shallow and overlie gneiss
Constraints to forest protection are :
•     Labour : people involved in coffee production are absent
•     High competition from coarse grasses
•    Fire widespread through dry grass
•    Climate long dry season
Catchment protection should probably include perennial crops like coffee and tea and animal husbandry improved package
In farming system IB, given the high density of population, catchment protect^ forest protection should be directed to productive « energy farms » and perenm rather than to conservative conservation measures
1
In fanning system 2D given the physical characteristics of the area disturbed soils, and slopes, reforestation should be undertaken and grass ° ^
. $ 0.
ev ^j0pieeS
. rollitttt 4^*^
u
terraces taking into account the loss of productive land resulting from their This loss is notably greater on steep slopes, where terracing is required * « could absorb 7.5% of the total area, bunds could absorb 19% and terraces •>
TAMS^LLG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
171rf  PaSE A
D development options
VOLUME n
—
,r and in 2D (Kaffa region), one can expect to find abandoned lands but sys teib 2C, .n the high population density areas The land has considerable
fa,loVtP t sloping landscape means soil losses Tubers are in low lying land in s°il5, bU fFnrestation could be undertaken in large schemes
■>'°mi^ioIiandre
c^’1 * *’
dbj (he level of forestD' is Probab,y ven' low and> given ’he presence of
jng systein rotection of forest is preferable to active silviculture. Pasture
^mentshoold be
undertaken as there is no proper catchment protection agriculture and food sector development
(  forecast0
m0St pro
b bie cropping patterns have been identified in each
a
same data as cOfTSid  eration  the evolution  in  the cropping  patterns of each 'Sg  $Jstein’ Th  ? evolution  could  be seen  when  comparing  the traditional system,  as J5g sV5,em ,T bove and the data on each crop collected by the counterpart team in the
ft conespondmg• 
area has been allocated for each crapping partem, considering the for the planning penod. and a potential area for each crop has
l^XSfXwholeB.s.n.cr^lS)
Table 5.6 Proposed cropping patterns (rainfed agriculture)
Type of crop
Areas (ha)
Cropping pattern
Mmk
936,000
33.S%
Sc^hum
612.600
22.1 %
Tfl
329,570
11.9%
Mm
253,200
9 i %
Umds
53.200
1.9%
462,800
16.7%
.Wton
17.000
0.6%
L«t
Toddcr
-- - -
34.000
1.2%
.. D|Hnas
38,500
1 5%
- -■ ...
,
34,000
1.2%
— - —
2,771,470
100.0 %
I ^figures in Table 5-6 could be seen ^^              __ _______
daborated, int
.the next 3-
•«s. hem this, a first hypotheses has PMi Introduction to this Chapter)
Sri 0® "Uld K *. Pop«U<®
I
' b covet the food needs and meet the f
t0  «eate a tradeable surplus of food crop
W of the annual crops potential couldobject'''» ]{lCOme
increase the m
t
the exportable coffee product!
lQ  reduce the pressure on land 
i 'J?nsePuence  the Basin should become an
ic uion in
1
<■
" a'4        summarised in Table 5.1 be'°w’
^tta-Mwbo Rhrcr Balli* tategn*icd »e'<ICVresource base and development options
Table 5.7 Rainfed agricultural development/intensities and area
Type of crop           Baseline 1996         Type of crop
Maize
I Sorghum
Teff____
Pulses_
Oilseeds
207080  (33.9%) 115100  (18  9%) 138600 (22 7%)
37561 (62%) 15391 (2,5%)
Maize
Sorjjhum
Teff
Pulses
Oilseeds
Target 2035
468300  (333% 306300  (21T% 164785 (117%
126600 (9.0%) 53200 (3.8%)
19250 (1.4%)
'“cremeum
Rice                                 1220         (0.2) Rice
]S20
550
Coffee
Cotton
95160 (15 6%) 130                 (-%)
Coffee
Cotton
Bananas
231400 (16 4%) 8500 (0 6%)
17000 (1 2%>
6600
~U3
Total
610242 (100%)
Green fodder Total
17000 ( i 2%~
1412335 (100%
5.3 Economic analysis
5.3.1 Rainfed agricultural development
Major   economic   benefits   of   the   proposed   allocation   of   resources   are   the   increase   in   grain   at coffee production, mainly for local consumption and export, through
•      expansion of the cropping area
•      increased crop productivity
•      change in the cropping patterns by introduction of new crops
The impact on agricultural production is summarised in the following table
Table 5.8 Impact on rainfed agricultural production
The total incremental production is estimated at 3393.5 (000 ton^
S  3393.5 (000 tonnes),
ocri(X] eg 
optimum yield for each crop will be reached at the end of the planning
tXmS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
173 
i,(•»<■«BA •_________ -
cF AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
” encf" P'r
' ,bMr
VOLUME II i" *e follow
Table 5.9 Economic benefit of rainfed cropping (Birr/ha)
I
Benefit per ha
Crop
Benefit per” lul
(Birr)
'(USS)
4892
783                     "
l"r* - -rrrfllJ 111                             -------
,
----------------
Vzff —
□ 206
513
__  ___
1939
rfio
£>.i 1----------------------------------- --------  —
1381
221
nu Seeds
1418
227                        “
Rice
________ ______
1227
196
Cotton
579
93
Coffe*
6750
1080
flan :»nns
1578
253
Fodder
80
13
ij|  costs,  converted  into  economic terms,  have been  included  in  the cost streams for the Ration  of the economic rates of return  Those costs include: direct production  costs eluding  labour,  at farm level,  investments and  operating  and  maintenance costs (recurrent O5tsi at the level of the programme
Staled  analysis of data and  information  collected  has been  carried  out and  is presented  in fan 3E  - Economic and  Financial Analysis Table 1  in  Appendix  4  shows the global iHititi of the cost benefit model for the Baro Akobo Basin rainfed agriculture.
fit  ERR  and  the  NPV  have  been  calculated  based  on  the  following  parameters,  with  pnces ^don 1996 current prices;
ptnod 40 years
‘ change rate: lUSS/Birr6 35
,    ^dard      inversion    factor    (SCF)    0    85 
Version factor for |
abouj Q Q
'
and  feni  f'°r    *nputs   ancl    outputs  are  presented  in  Annex  3E  Import  parity  prices  for ^'ihd    1     lsers     been    used    For    coffee    and    banana    the    current    export    panty    pnces
'^ERRs jla
been estimated for each of the proposed crops but for the rainfed 
of  master p]^ ^  P
ro
0Se d for the total Basin in order to test their viability globally. At the
annin8 it is not recommended to test this viability individually for each crop F                   ftt and capital costs of the programme cannot be related to an individual
Chapters
«TiRESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
The total costs comprise the inputs supply to the farmers and the manaee ' programme (capital and recurrent costs), the last components representing 00515 of the
•      research
• 
adaptative research
• 
extension
• 
co-operatives support
• 
institutions establishment- management and organisation support
• 
training
Considering the farm inputs supply, it should be noted that the use of animal dra
has been generalised on a technically improved basis as recommended in the livestock 
development report Even at higher cost, the feasibility of using improved technolo 
not seem to be endangered
The fertilisers and  improved  seeds inputs reflect the feasibility  of their application  u demonstrated  by  countrywide trials over several years which  have established  the profitability  of fertiliser use.  In  this respect,  there is a significant scope for increasing  the coverage and the dosage of fertiliser use
Table   1   in   Appendix   4   of   Annex   3   A   indicates   that   the   proposed   allocation   of   resources   is economically justified, as it generates an adequate rate of return calculated at 33 6%
Nevertheless,   the   implementation   of   the   programme   must   cope   with   the   following   factors   dx can reduce its profitability or slow the pace of the implementation
1             Acceptance by the population at
farm level
2  Soil degradation as a crop reduction factor (see Appendix 2)
3             Contingencies
4             Conflicts between users
5             Marketing prices of commodities and 
supplies
6                Young    age    of    the    population,    those    age    groups    being    less    interested    in    peg farming
5.3.2 Irrigated agricultural development
,
From   fourteen   basic   schemes   existing   in   the   project   data   base,   four   have   been   sc   ect screening, using the following criteria
•      unit cost per ha
•      possible development in phases
175aS
e AND DEVELOPMENT options
volume n
Table 5.10 Selected irrigation schemes
Localization
Gross area
(h*)
13,600
Total cost (CSS)
Unit cost
—-  Alwero    R
,    left    bank. 
87.410,940*
~At>obo dam____________ Alwero R. right and left banks. Dumbong dam Baro IL right bank. 
23.192             15,000
(Birr  ha) 53,370 55,470
66,600
50,900          419,139,017  52,290
i.jieflt H
King dam____________
Gilo   R   right   bank   Gilo  61.235 2Idam
46,900
432,023,725
58,495
T,.  four  selected  schemes  have  been  analysed  and  testing  of  the  profitability  of  treated , f?ng has been undertaken, using data available for each system
Mach  project,  specific  parameters  of  agnculture  development  have  been  annlird 
. cropping patterns cropping intensity tfricuitwal input package
*ppuw.
Laddition, specific institutional and management proposals have been associated with the iL+niczl parameters
> cropping patterns and cropping intensities are detailed in Table 8 and Figures 2 and 3 In s jmex 3E, Section 5, Agricultural Projects The general characteristics of each project are seemed in the following paragraphs
^j«t No. 1 Alwero/Abobo 
topping patterns : food crops (maize, sorghum, ‘-’idtr md cotton
intensity 166 %
package comparable to the package proposed tor ramroi "’dement smallholders
^'■^.2 At
> Patted ri/bu,nbflng
w beans, groundnuts, vegetables). gr«° taitlfed agnClllture
ncc
c °rn
lnerc al
Sett3
j  a^lrdance with international practices 41 estaIe or smallholders
^A-s^into 2 Pirts^of *   crn6*1 /Oc*der
Wt0 tbree ^schemes of each 17000 Ha one of them elected food crops (maize, sorghum, wheat, groundnuts) and
» ■ °PPinp                 .
•   lflputPackag lty I65%
V an^em ® ' Sparable to the package proposed tor rainfed agriculture
en
raaJl^olders
IU^Tb —____________ _ _______________ _ in Integrated Development Master PIid
CMlei-5RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
Sub-scheme b (8500 ha)
•      cropping patterns sugar cane
•      cropping intensity : 100 %
•      input package : specific from the Awash Valley and in ac
international practices
•      management : smallholders, possibly in association with commercial estat
Sub-scheme c (J 7000 ha)
r dance
• 
cropping patterns : sugar cane ,
• 
cropping intensity • 100 %,
• 
input package specific from the Awash Valley and in accordance with
• 
international practices,
•      management : commercial estate
Sub-scheme d (17000 has)
•      cropping patterns : cotton, maize, green fodder
•      cropping intensity 165 %
•      input package comparable to the package proposed for rainfed agriculture
•      management : smallholders
The capital costs are derived  from the irrigation  schemes costing  method  in  Annex  1H The recurrent costs are calculated  at the rate of 0  5  % of the cost of the civil works and  of 15% of the cost of the irrigation development (downstream).
Crop  budgets have been  established  for each  of the selected  crops,  according  to  the general method  presented  in  the introduction  It includes estimates of the gross value of produacn and  all production  costs e g.  seeds and  planting  material,  fertilisers,  insecticides nd pesticides, labour, oxen ploughing and machinery for sugar cane commercial estate
Detailed crop budget tables are presented in Annex 3E Appendix 5 (Table 1 to 9)
In order to calculate an incremental net economic benefit stream, cropping patterns
applied to the economic crop budgets to build up the appropnate crop mo^es
derived net benefits This is reflected in Annex 3E Appendix 6, Crop models (a
In addition capital and recurrent costs, expressed in economic terms, have n 
from the economic benefits.
This exercise has been repeated for each project and for each scheme in project
In r&l
It should  be noted  that,  for project No  3  Baro  RB.  I Itang,  a specific agncu  con$tra;t«51
stream has been prepared to reflect the necessity of building a sugar
and the need for developing a positive net economic benefit from di eren ^edule15 far to be highly profitable in irrigated conditions (profitability constrain presented in Annex 3E, Section 5, Agricultural Projects Figure 4.
cro
p  all i'e
S
The     Economic     Internal     Rate     of     Return     (EIRR)     for     the     master     Plan_Pr        P°j2.6% estimated respectively at 11.4% for project No 1, 10 0% for project -
Baro- Ako bo River Basin Integrated Development Master Planrf BASE and DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
VOLUME
p p pllB
_____ ___ _____  __________
L 3 over a 40 year period This is below the thrwhnM
for ^Gu!tura‘ pr°jeCtS ,n Ethi°P‘a
d rate Of 14 P^ent general
jrif^rnation^ cost rites hive been used for the drir^
tfto  account ,OCaJ contrac*ors’ Prices,  a d  JU"’n ^t5 If tf**  were to  be
s
<Lj The costs of irrigation schemes include all nrelim.n" “
• U^he tender process, this represents 20% of the capjj?
J
nanes-
can be prefer; J
onomic  benefit  per  hectare  (after  labour  costs)  is  summarised  in  the  following IKO'1
[£i|e
Table 5-11 Economic benefit of the irrigated cropping (BinTha)
Crop
Benefit per ha
Benefit     per     ha (ISS)
Maize
5852.3
783.4
Sorflbum
r3016.0
403.7
Wheat
4248.0
568 7
Vegetables
2583.1
345 8
Rice
U7S5.0
1573 6
Pulses
_  __ ____________ 4108 2
3825 O
.
512.0
Oil Seeds
550.0
Cotton
73894
989.2
Sugar
156460
2DW 5
Fodder
10119.6
1354 7
^on     T     J     UULh'"?25       ?     COasiderabIe       *«*of     which     is     suitable     for     sugar-cane
J*5 recommended d 
’° feed * pha5cd dcveIoPraen1 of sugar factories Two
' ^-‘es of scale in the <a,o               resource constrains and considering the high level of ,n tne ^gar technology industry.
i^Sar yiei?^7 P’“r aV?I,ab,e is for processing about 4.500 tonnes of cane per day. 
'^rating continue i \P 3J11 wou*  be about 100 thousand tonnes of refined white
■             ntlnUousIV for a period of 192 days per year
d
J Hithe
ac d
' ^ona?'§if€r CpPlTa 5onsumPt,on of sugar in Ethiopia^ currently slightly over
n
Cl '°  At that ti ^
th
e
act °ries would be required even after the Fincha plant starts
lrnt tbe Per capita consumption should have increased to about 5 kg
^iUT^  d«c  1  i
ne
P     at'°n   ’"creases  at  about  3  %  per  year,  the  per  capita  consumption  of
o
e °festablishjer next ^ew
hi order to augment the shortage, a phased
p
sugar factories could be justified
1 Oon k
i^^ion^ P^t can h ectares °f land, sufficient to feed a sugar factory slightly bigger
'^°Pnie ’»\ PP °va| j ^arineci Allowing a period of about 3 years tor detailed project
n
ar
Cail
 start aft  , ®
-j-. 
1         nance mobilisation, developing the sugar estate (field 
er  3-4 years. The cane plantation could be made ready 3-4 years
^Ako]^              - — -_____ _  _ ___________________________ -__ -____________~T
tr Baii° Integrated DertJopment Muter Plan
Ckijrter 5
TORESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
V0 ^ D
after planting by which time the factory could be ready to go into production. Tk 
works part of the factory can start some 2 years earlier and erection of the C'V' 
machinery 6-9 months before that
The second phase of development of the estate for a similar capacity plant co 
planned taking into account the gap between the supply of and the demand for U
time This is necessary because there could be other projects in the planning stao M
in the country 
A scheme layout for the development of a factory, with a maximum cane crushing 
4,000 tonnes cane per day is provided in Annex 3E, Section 5 .4 
Small Scale Industrial Development
Any small scale non-farm private economic activity pursued for commercial business
as a source of full or partial income and employment is considered as Small-Scale Econom activity (SSE), Examples include grain mill, and oil mills and cane crushers
^^ction
ge ’ elsewf*rt
8  capacity of
For    several    years,    many    attempts    have    been    made    to    promote    income    generating    small-sca? enterprises,      but      many      of      these      schemes      have      been      without      adequate      finding surprisingly,   there   has   been   a   rate   of   failure   because   they   did   not   have   the   capital   to   sun   the income     generating     activity     Furthermore,     there     has     been     no     policies     that     encourage     pmate enterprises     However     with     the     present     policy     of     the     government     to     pursue     free     marks economy,     promotion     of     small     scale     industries     is     on     the     increase     This     will     require     an appropriate    financial    mechanism.    Small    short    term    working    capital    loans    and    medium    term investment     loans     are     the     recommended     mechanisms     that     could     enhance     the     promotion     tf rural   small   scale   enterprises.   As   producers   build   up   their   amount   of   working   capital   they   ut encouraged to graduate to a higher level of credit, i.e to a larger income generating acth-ity
The project area is under developed  as many  of the inhabitants live on  a subsistence ftraarg 
level   Except   for   some   scattered   small   flour   mills,   bakeries,   and   other
small
handicrafts, 
there
are virtually no small scale industries in the project area
The present economy of the region is based mainly on agriculture The rural economy of
region mainly consists of mixed cropping and animal husbandry. In addition fishing^
hunting, are practised to a significant extent Organised or commercial farm activity » earlier limited to one state farm Organised non-farm activity is not apparent
rural households are, however, said to be engage in pottery and basket weaving data the significance of such activities could not be measured Compared to activities, however, they may be negligible , at least, as primary activity
An inventory of economic activities in the project area reveals that the most
$973
appears to be trade A recent survey in the project area has revealed that
^1
retailers, 1,381 whole sale activities and 1,785 engaged in services Most o
traders with only two to three persons engaged in each activity
The survey conducted also showed that the project area has 265 small
conventional     coffee     pulpers,     13     coffee     hullers,     30     small     carpentry     shops. oil mills, 2 in Asosa and 1 in Gimbi
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
179
■ mills, ■*
***J
IKERASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
_______ olume
v
volume u
Awd Husbandry
r*  bvatock  population  within  the Basin is estimated at 2 million cattle, 0 6 million sheep ,ij million goats, 0.1 million equine, 1 4 million chicken.
rde represent about 90% of the total livestock units.
ton  the Basin,  two  main  systems of cattle keeping  are found  In  the Upper Basin,  cattle r» Icept mainly for draught purposes, but also for milk and a source of cash, and for cultural juposcs such as status and brideprice
i the Lower Basin, where about 15% of the cattle of the Basin are found, cattle are kept for ndiand subsistence, in a traditional pastoral system
Jfahoivity  of livestock  is low as a result of inadequate Dutntion  and  diseases Feed 
■purees are the main constraints to the livestock production in the Upper Basin, given the allowing factors .
' 'be progressive loss of grazing land to annual cropping
•he loss of land and productivity through soil erosion 
(   ,Jle ^crdevelopment of the forage production
ro P residues are under-utilised
er  Basin, while total annual production of grazing and browsing arc adequate
asin Integrated Development Mi** P,a,,resource base and development options
V °LUMEn
the modified herd composition to increase the milk production could using cows as draught power
Uld  ** asso
ciated
P  SS  b  Ht    of
°  ’ ’  y    obtaining improved grazing land through the allo™
agricultural resources which potential has been preliminary assessed in poinT??. °     ‘
f nor
. 
K
J z -5 above
he increased productivity of trypanotolerant species of cattle is linked to th.- recession cropping 
5.3.5      Soil conservation and reafforestation
Only direct costs and benefits have been estimated at farm level There 9r k import™ indirect benefits assorted with soit conservation, many of which ™ di^
’ unKcd 10 the"- use in flood
I^Tt
factors should not be necessarily incorporated in the rainfed agticuhm
model,    where    improved    practices    should    play    the    major    role    in    soil    conservation    dE 
have been evaluated, the results are presented in Appendix 2 
netlU
But this does not imply  that these benefits should  not been  taken  into  account in  the overall assessment of the allocation  of resources The areas identified  above as non-suitable for annual cropping  could  be the potential area targets and  the main  subjects of specific measures after a positive return has been estimated
Scope
Implementation  of the Master Plan  is not without risk  to  the landscape Much  of that nsk  results from over-exploitation  of soil and  vegetation  and  the use of unsuitable farming  methods This chapter discusses land degradation and the means for its control.
The technical recommendations that follow result from a pre-feasibility  assessment of published  information.  While they  rely  upon  principles of agronomic,  engineering,  and silvicultural practice,  they  are not suitable for design  As such,  they’ would  require adjustment using  information  from on-site investigations of soil,  climate,  and  vegetation  Ideally,  this cou.d be done by the Soil Conservation Project working with its collaborating agencies
Only  part of the problem of catchment degradation  is technical For technical solutions wbe effective,  they  require a suitable legislative and  policy  base This extends beyond  the boun  u the Master Plan area and is national in scope
The magnitude of annual soil loss in Ethiopia is currently estimated to be betw^Jr
billion tons Its consequence is a productivity decline of about 1 per cent per
highlands alone, 27.5 million hectares of soils are said to show significant signs
erosion. Sustainable land use would require that 6 million hectares of senous y 
completely withdrawn from agricultural production and reforested, another . 
should revert to permanent pasture
Details on national environmentally related issues, policies and strategies
Annex 4 Environment
Cb*P«r5
YyCMSTJLG Bar°-^ob° River Basin
^‘Jopment Master Plan
181h]a
h rainfall
‘ a high proponion of sloping lands, and
3  propensity on the part of most farmers, acting out of ignorance, to misuse land
. ^sjon reduces plant productivity by decreasing soil depth, thereby redudng the capacity 
■
Ht s
|  w Store water for plant use. and by selectively removing days and other fine material
adsorb soil nutrients essential to plant processes Soil erosion is a natural process. It
w ntB important to man only when soil is removed at a rate faster than rt is produced
conservation  practices  are  part  of  the  answer,  but  these  are  unlikely  to  be  technically fcdve  and  financially  affordable  on  land  with  slopes  greater  than  about  18  per  am, tauttive forms of land use arc another - and probably much larger - part of the answer
I erosion produces sediment. It also produces runoff, and the two combined can be snnnaiul in changing the landscape In this Master Plan, sediment transport is important sauscofits influence upon potential reservoirs and the morphology' of the lower basin
of practices is required for the Master Plan area These include choice of land use
•^ pasture, agriculture); choice of crop (some are unsuitable); and soil conservation t* f * kCrC sustainability requires a specific practice) In each case the recommendation 
Oj  1 minimum expenditure required to stabilise land degradationRESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
V0L«M ,
t|
5.3.6    Hydropower
Within the Baro-Akobo basin, most of the towns with electric power are served k diesel and hydroelectric plants There is no overall electric power network and differences can be seen in the local supply between the regions served by small n| 
region as Gambela, which is served by a 5 MW hydroelectric plant on the Sor river a
planning study states that 42% of the people in the Gambela region have access to 
power but consumption is only a fraction of the available capacity. 
ete3r':
In the short run, demand for electric power will remain low and priority should be
the extension of the network to localities in the Baro Akobo, and the creation 
capacities for the medium and long term. This seems to be the actual policv of the ffT' 
which intends to first extend a new 132 kV line to Bedele (in the Gambela reaoni
undertaking any expansion. 
"
At the national and international level, regional interconnectors have been the subject cf
several studies The regional interconnector to Sudan has been found technically, fuyut<i!
and economically interesting, but the emphasis has now been put on national improveor®
and, also because of political factors, the project is on hold
In such a situation, and considering the number of existing possibilities for hydropower
in the country, the competition between sites will be high and only the most competitive es
will be taken into account as reflected in recent EELPA studies and prospects
The different sites selected  in  the Baro  Akobo  Basin  by  the project should  be able to  raac with  other sites,  given  their level of cost which  seem to  favourably  compare to  sites in  dta parts of the country  But it should  also  depend  on  the decision  that will be taken  against a network and transmission facilities to promote a more efficient pattern of utilisation
The pre-sele
divided into
(national or
:cted dams considered as hydro power options in the Baro Akobo basin hivebes small hydroprojects of less than 40 MW and hydroprojects of more than 40 
interregional interest), for the purpose of economic analysis. In each category ri
options have been ranked according to the following criteria:
| Criteria
Weighting factors
11. Cost per kWh                     50
12. Operating costs                 25
3 Resettlement
4. Transmission costs 9
12
The results of the weighted ranking of dams are presented in Annex 3E Append^ ?
5.3.7    Water supply
The analysis of technical alternatives has been completed and schemes have been urban and rural areas, considering mainly the size of the projected population Costs and future water consumption have been assessed for each sche
figures are summarised in Annex 3E Appendix 8 Tables 1 to 5.
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
AgESOUHCE base and development options
The engineering costing sheets were used in presenting and analysing the proposed water projects in all areas They provide relevant data on each of the above categories and encompass’
. Water supply requirements
•   Proposed construction program
•   Cost breakdown by foreign and local components
•   Operation and maintenance costs
« Unit cost for OEM. Capital, Total Costs.
volume n
In  a further step,  costs and  benefits have been  treated  on  an  incremental basis The costs have been  measured  againsl the benefits derived  from the capability  of the projects to  satisfy1 incremental needs of water supply  Benefits have been  measured  by  the returns from water tariffs revenues.
The Economic Rates of Return are shown in Annex 3E, Appendix 8 1, Table 5 and 8 2 Table II.
To implement such a water supply system it must be recognised that a significant portion of
the capital cost must be subsidised This may be funded externally or internally. It is very 
apparent that the revenue stream will be insufficient to meet the expenditures required for
these projects The Operation and Maintenance of the system can probably be covered by 
charges currently being levied A detailed sensitivity analysis should be prepared to illustrate
how much subsidy would be required at various user rates
The Government of Ethiopia is committed to providing a phase national water supply system. 
The proposals will offer guidance as to the financial requirements necessary to implement
such a policy It is assumed that all areas, rural, semi-urban, and urban areas will be
developed simultaneously.
£ J. 8 Road sector
The evaluation  of road  improvements within  the Project area and  the determination  of priorities are based  on  the followings The primary  source of benefits considered  are the savings in transport costs that may result from the road improvements.
details  on  the  different  savings  according  to  the  road  standard  are  provided  in  the  annex dealing with rural infrastructure (Annex 3C)
The results of the evaluation are summarised in the following table
t AMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin integrated Development Marter Plan                      Chapter?RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
Table 5.12         Road improvement programme, results of the cost benefit
Road
1
Characteristics
Cost (10‘ Birr)
ERR’
B/C13 * 15
Dima  road jet To
Gog
RR30
Substitute to Godcre- Abobo
90.75
15 1%
T375     ~~
WKrn
Gidami * Chanka Jet. - Inango - Rte 5
Reconstruction RR 50
91.99
116%
Tl52
Tilri '
Bambasi-Begi-
1 Gidami
RR30
48 45
8.5%
0 884
i Gambela -
Dembidolo
Reconstruction RR50
59 07
10.8%
1 063
TiT"
Gimbi (rte5)- junction Metu-Bedeie
Reconstruction RR50
56.25
8 6%
0 864
tap'
Jet. Lalo Kile-Dupa-
Supe
Reconstruction RR10
17.85
10.0%
1.001
*29M
Yubdo Jct.-Yirga Degen Jet
Reconstruction
17.52
6.2%
0703
*•8.53 ~
As noted in a previous section, there are approximately 1,500 1cm of important regional raid serving wereda towns that are not on the network of primary and secondary roads within te Project Area The results of the analyses described  above,  for two  or three represew: roads, indicate that rebuilding to meet the requirements of Rural Road Standard RR 30 ts. be economically justified for only a portion of these roads, a larger share may be improvs only to the level of RR 10 , at least initially
Regarding minor regional and local roads, the results of the economic analysis show a set c*’ economic indicators that appear at first to be marginal but it must be recognised that
roads will be reconstructed over a period of 40 years and the analysis covered a set ofns.i that would be rebuilt at the beginning of the period Also, a number of roads are covewc •? this analysis and some of these roads my be very attractive economically.
Utilising the costs for individual projects and estimated benefits based on 
explained above, comparisons of costs and benefits, using standard economic
appear rather disappointing
It  must  be  recognised  that  these  analyses  have  been  carried  out  on  the  basis  0 
assumptions    for    freight    movements    as    for    traffic    volumes    developed    a development options chapter (Chapter 4).
The review of the first years benefits make clear that the value of most of{ improvements are heavily depending on the rate at which fanners will a technologies and the market of inputs and commodities will develop.
l3 B/C : Cost benefit ratio
HNPV : Net present value (at 12% discount rate)
15 High watershed forest protection
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master PlanrESOURCE base and development options
volume n
o
l
r rrektiv®1y> ^c roa^ improvement programme should be spread out over a number of years n0T be concentrated in the early years of the planning period
This is reflected in the following proposed programme, which is illustrated in Table 5 13 helow and in the Map Album
Table 5.13 Economic infrastructure - Roads development programme
Phases
Road standard               Length            Cost
Physical           Total cost
(Km)         (lOfBirr)        Contingency (10%)
phase 11997 - 2005
(2) Gambela - Jikawo16 New RR30 120 70.3
7.03                77.33
(3) Garnbela - Metu                 Upg Paved                                      176              190 8                   19.08              209 88
(10) Mctu Jet - Jet So              Rec & Upg RR50                           152                56 2 1 Gimbi
Other key regional roads         Rec & Upg RR10 - RR30               Nil
5.62                61.82
Minor local roads
Total
Phase II2006 - 2015
Rec & Upg RR10 395
All 843
98 7
416.0
9 87
108,57
41.6              457.60
(4) Gambela - Abobo - Gog Upg RR30 132 49 0
(5) Gog - Dima Road Jet New RR30 165 90 7
4 90
53.90
9.07                99.77
Other key regional roads         Rec & Upg RR10 - RR30              335
77 9
Minor local roads
Phase III 2016 - 2025
Rec & Upg RR10                           655              163 7
7 79
16 37
85 69
180 07
All                                                 1287
381.3                   38.13              419.43
(8) Gambela - Dembtdolo -     Rec RR30                                       152                59 1 Chanka Jet
P)Gidami-Inango - Rle 517         Rec RR50                                         90                 410
5.91                65 01
«(9) Gidami - Bambasi RwRR30 114
Other key regional roads Rec & Upg RR10 - RR30 420
48 4
97.6
4,10
4 84
9 76
i Minor local roads
Fora/
Phase IV 2026 - 2035™
45 10
53 24
107 36
Rec & Upg RR10                           655              163 7
All                                                 1431
409.8
16 37 180 07
40.98 450.78
Giber key regional roads        Rec & Upg RR10-RR30                745              173.1
Minor local roads Ljotai
17 31
190.41
Rec&UpgRRlO 655 1637
All 1400 336.8
16 37 180.07
33.68 370.48
(           re  cr t0 road sections’ numbers in Volume IV Map Album page Note : (2)  (3), 
f
17 0T^ anally ongoing
half of the proposed section is considered here (90km) in Phase U as a linkage between 
key 
11 roads’1
i » p|jj
The ScCo°d half will be considered as a key regional road and included in the item 'other
r
I
Pha^ ^           delude the upgrading of sections built initially io lower standards. dunng the 3 first
oes 1X31
J
• but this could be appropriate during the implementation as a result of expanding economic activity
$ ULq Eiro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
Chapter SRESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
TAMS ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master 187e
rESOIJHC  base and development options
volume n
APPENDICES
I I ,t
'Ji . "    — _ .    
^‘VLG Baro-Akobo River Basin Lnicgralrd Develop meet Master Plan              Appendices^SOURCE base and development options
volume n
appendix 1
FARMING SYSTEMS AND LAND RESOURCES ALLOCATION (10 pages)
TABLE 1 - KO
TOTAL AREA OF FARMING SYSTEM 22.360 SQ.KM
FARMING SYSTEM: 3A
GENERALISED LAND CAPACITY GROUPS 1&3 total area 4,420 sq km
Note northern part of system 3 A, which has a critical Population Support Capacity Area reserved for
Infrastructural development 20% of 4,420 sq km - Agricultural development 80% of 4,420 sq km = 3,536sq km
884sq km
Planned Cropping Pattern
r
Percent
sq.km
ha
Future
Maize
30
1,060
106,000
4,000
Sorghum
15
530
53.000
3.000
Teff
15
530
53.000
2.300
Pulses
5
177
17,700
1.000
Oil seed
1
35
3,500
900
Coffee
24
850
85,500
800
GENERALISED LAND CAPABILITY GROUP 6, total area 2,102 sq km Note northern part of system 3 A, sandwiched between two areas of IB.
Land allocation
Infrastructure development 20 % of 2,102 sq km = 420sq km
Remainder after deduction of infrastruture =
1,688sq km
Agricultural development 10% of 1,682 sq km = I68sq km, rounded up to 170sq.km.
170 sq km annual cropping on receding flood waters I'larined CropDing Pattern
Percent
orgbuni
m itm                    ha             Future vidd (kg/ha)
50
65
6.500
350
*reen fodder
24
41
4.100                     500
tree*)
27                            46
4,600                     550
^' Qt< *): broadcast seeding.
TAMS-ULG Baru-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
AppendicesRESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
v <*lum
TABLE 1 - 1 (ii)
GENERALISED LAND CAPABILITY GROUP 5 & 6 total area 5,084 sq km Note southern part. Forest and Wood land (dense) covering
Wereda 66 & 67.
Land allocation:
Forest protection
Dense Woodland
Infrastructural development 20% of 3,804 sq.km
Wood land reserve
80% of 3,804sq km
Along the border of wood land area, agroforestry with banana covering 10% of 3,043 sq km
Planned Cropping Pattern
Banana
10 
PercentSqkm 304
ha
30,400
l,280sq km ~ 3,804sq km
=              765sq km
-     3,043sq km
-          304sq km
Yield (kgfrq) 25,500
The    remainder    of    22,360    sq    km    less    the    above    allocations    (4420+2102+5084)    =    10,754 km, is proposed for grazing and Forest Protection
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plangf SOimCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
TABLE 1-2 
TOTAL AREA OF FARMING SYSTEM 4,053 SQ KM
VOLUME U
FARMING SYSTEM: 3B.
GENERALISED LAND CAP .ABILITY GROUP 1, total area 1.500 sq km
.Vea reserved for
Infrastructure development 20 % of l,500sqkm = 300sqkm
Woodland reserve
240 sq km
Agricultural development 80% of 1,260 sq km = 960 sq km
Planned CfOPDinRP Atterp
Percent
sqkm
ba
f >ithir# vi/Vo/haX
Maize
25
240
24,000
2,800 '
Sorghum
45
432
43,200
2,000
Teff
15
144
14.400
1,000
Pulses
5
48
4,800
500
Oil Seeds
10
96
9,600
350
Land allocation:
Infrastructural  development  20%  of  1,783  sq  km  -  357sq.km
Agricultural development (planting on receding flood water)
= I45sq km
Unsuitable for agricultural development                 = l,281sqkm Planned Cropping Pattern (intercropping)
Pgrceit.
sq_km
faa
Futqre.ytgldJkgMl
Sorghum
50
72
7,200
350
Green fodder
24
34
3,400
500
Rice ♦)
27
39
3,900
550
Note *); broadcast seeding
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
AppendicesRESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
V °UMIn
TABLE 1 - 3 (i)
TOTAL AREA OF FARMING SYSTEM 7,348 SQ.KM
FARMING SYSTEM: IB
GENERALISED LAND CAPABILITY GROUP 1, total area 3.5OOsq km
Land allocation:
Infrastructure development 20 % of 3,5OOsq km = Agricultural development 80% of 3,500sq km =
Planned Cropping Pattern
700sq km 2,800sq km
Percentsq km
ba
Euture yield (
kc/hai
Maize
30
840
84,000
4,000
Sorghum
15
420
42,000
3,000
Teff
15
420
42,000
2,000
Pulses
5
140
14,000
1,000
Oilseeds
1
28
2,800
900
Coffee
24
672
67,000
800
GENERALISED LAND CAP ABILITY GROUP 3, total area 2,300 sq km
Land allocation:
Infrastructural development 20 % of 2,300 sq km = Agricultural development 80% of 2,300 sq km =
Planned Cropping Pattern (intercropping)
460 sq km 1,840 sq km
Percentsq km Coffee                     65 
ha
Future yield (kg/ha)
1,196 
119,600 
800
Note. Intercropping would be allowed for 3 years on 30% of the coffee area (119,600 ha) using the following cropping pattern
Planned Cropping Pattern (intercropping)
Percent
sq km
ha
Funire vield (kg/ha)
Maize
10
120
12,000
2,500
Sorghum
10
120
12,000
1,800
Pulses
10
120
12,000
900
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master PlanggSOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
TABLE l-3(“)
VOLUME 11
FS: IB
^ te The remaining of l,840sq km reserved agricultural development area is 644sq km (
o
I g40 less l,196sqkm) and is proposed for annual crops, using the cropping panem given
below
Planrwd Crooning PiU$rn
Percent
KLkm
ha
Future yield Ikalial
Maize
)
215
21,500
4.000
Sorghum
} 35
215
21,500
3,000
Pulses
}
215
21,500
1,000
Note  The  balance  of  1,548sq  km  would  be  divided equally  between Catchment and  Forest Protection
t <Ms.ulg
Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
AppendicesRESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
TABLE 1 - 4 (i)
TOTAL AREA OF FARMING SYSTEM 16,842 SQ KM GENERALISED LAND CAPABILITY GROUPS 1-6, total area 5,704sq km
FARMING SYSTEM
a        Total area Sale Wereda (No 42),
Land allocation, Sale Wereda reserved for
2,209 sq km
Forest and Catchment Protection, total area
2,209 sq km
b.
Total Area Wereda 25 to 28, 30, 32:
3,495 sq km
Land allocation Wereda 25 to 28,30 and 32:
- Infrastructural development 20% of 3,495 sq km. =
- Forest & Catchment Protection : 3,495 less 699 sq km = 2,796 sq km 40%    of    balance    of2.796    sq    km
Agricultural      development      60%      of      2,796sq      km (This area allocated to annuals and coffee)
699 sq km
— 1,118 sq km = 1,678 sq km
Planned Cropping Pattern (annuals and coffee)
Percent
sq km
ha
Futurejdeldlkfi/haj
Maize
35
587
58,700
1,410
Sorghum
10
168
16,800
1,060
Teff
25
420
42,000
690
Pulses
10
168
16,800
680
Coffee
20
335
33,600
500
GENERALISED LAND CAPABILITY GROUPS 1-6, total area 5,285 km2
Land allocation;
Infrastructure development 20 % of 5,285sq km = Agricultural development 80% of 5,285sq km =
Planned Cropping Pattern! coffee intercropped)
l,057sq km
4,228sq km
Percent
sq km
ha                                    Future vield (kg/haj
Maize
35
1,480
148,000
1,410
Sorghum
10
423
42,300                                  1,060
Teff
25
1,057
105,570
690
Pulses
10
423
42,300                                     680
Oilseed
5
211
21,100                                     460
Coffee
15
634
63,400                                     500
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Planresource base and development options
TABLE l-4(ii)
GENERALISED LAND CAPABILITY GROUP 1, total area 3,369sq km Covering mainly Wereda 44 to 69 in Kaffa Region
Land Allocation;
Catchment Protection 50% ( of total 85 ] sq km ) Wereda 44 = 400sq km
VOLUME II
FS: 2D
Remaining area of W ereda 44 to 69 =
Land allocation
Infrastructure development 20 % of 2,969 sq km - Agricultural development 80% of 2,969sq km =
PlapnedjCrppping Pattern (annuals and coffee)
2 969sq km
59453 km 2,375sq km
Maize
Percept
55
so km
1,306
ha
130,600
Future yield (k«/hal
1,250
Sorghum
15
35
635,600
950
Teff
10
238
23,800
440
Pulses
15
356
35,600
700
Coffee
5
119
11,900
480
Note Intercropping should not exceed 3 years after planting of coffee Annual cropping pattern should be rotated to avoid fertility stress and the incidence of root diseases on coffee
AppendicesRESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
V °LUMEn
TABLE 1-5(1)
TOTAL AREA OF FARMING SYSTEM . 5,095 SQ KM
FARMING SYSTEM :lC
Total area Wereda Gura Farda (No. 52): 2,987 sq km
Land allocation: Wereda 52:
Catchment Protection 30% of 2,987sq.km =
Balance after allocation 
Infrastructural development 20% of 2,091 sq km = Agricultural development 80% 2091 sq km =
896 sq km 2,091 sq km
418 sq km 1,673 sq km
Note:    The    cropping    patterns    for,    Wereda    52    ,    totalling    1,673    sq    km    are included in the Generalised Land Capability Group 1, as given below
GENERALISED LAND CAPABILITY GROUP 1 total area 4,008 sqkm Land allocation
Agricultural      development      Wereda      52      :
Agricultural development Group 1 balance :
Planned Cropping Pattern (Wereda 52, total allocation 1,673 so km )
1,673 sq km
3,206 sq km
4,879 sq km Total
Percent
sq.km
hg
Future yield (k&'ha)
Maize
55
920
92,000
1,250
Sorghum
15
251
25,100
950
Teff
10
167
16,700
440
Pulses
15
251
25,100
700
Coffee
5
84
2.400
480
Planned Cropping Pattern (Group 1. total allocation 3,206sa km )
Percentsq km
ha
Future yield (kg/ha)
Maize
55
1,763
176,300
1,250
Sorghum
15
481
48,100
950
Teff
10
321
32.100
440
Pulses
15
481
48,100
700
Coffee
5
160
16,000
480
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
ApP<fl'gjSOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
TABLE 1-500
GENERALISED LAND CAPACITY GROUP 3. Total area =
Land allocation
Infrastructural development 20% of 1,100 sq km = Agricultural development 80% of 1,100 sq.km s
gl^incdCropping Pattern (Coffa intercropped)
VOLUME U
FS: 2C
1,100 sq km
220sq km
80sqkm
Percent
sq fan
ha
Coffee
65
572
57,200
Maize
)
103
10.300
Pulses
} 35
103
10,300
Sorghum
}
103
10,300
500
1,210
680
1,060
Note Intercropping should not exceed 3 years after planting of main crop Rotation of annual crops is as follows
Year     1
Year    2
Year     3
Maize
Pulses
Sorghum
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
AppendicesRESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
TABLE 1-6 
TOTAL AREAS OF FARMING SYSTEM 16. 323 SQ KM.
GENERALISED LAND CAPACITY GROUP 1. total area (Mainly open Wood land)
Land allocation:
Area reserved for infrastructure 20% of 6,087 
v °lume n
FARMING SYSTEM. 4N
6,087sq km =               1.218sq km
Balance                =               4,869sq km
Cattle development 30% of 4,869sq km
Agricultural development 70% of 4,869sq km =
=
l,46lsq km
3.408sq km
Planned Crop
ping Pattern
Maize
Percent
25
sq km
852
ha
85,200
Future yield (kg/ha)
1,340
Sorghum
60
2,045
204,500
500
Pulses
5
170
17,000
90
Oilseeds
5
170
17,000
1,090
Cotton
5
170
17,000
450
GENERALISED LAND CAPACITY GROUP 2 total area 9.390sq km (Waterlogged, cropping on receding flood water)
Land allocation:
Infrastrural Development 20% of 9,390sq km =
Balance =
Gambel a Park reserve 78 % of 7,520 sq km = Wood land reserve
Cropping on receding floods, balance of Group 2, [ie. 9,390sq km less (1,870+5,86S+525sq km)] = Planned Cropping Pattern (intercropping!
1.870 sq km 7,520 sq km
5,865 sq km 525 sq km
1,130 sq km
Percent
sq km
ha
Future yield (kg/ha)
Sorghum
50
565
56,500
350
Green fodder
24
265
26,500
500
Rice *)
27
300
30,000
550
Note *) : broad casted seeding
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo Ri>cr Basin Integrated Development Master PlangfSOURCE BASE AMD DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
\PPEMDIX 2
VOLUME n
SOIL DEGRADATION: CROP REDUCTION
FACTORS
Table of Contents
Page
1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... .................. I
2  Soil Degradation and Crop Yields............................  .............................. ... , .. .............................  I
2.1  Water-caused Soil Erosion......................................................... .... ..........................................  2
2.2  Other Fenns of Soil Degradation 
................... ... 2
3 Methodology....................................................................................................................................... 2
3 1 Conceptual Framework . . . 
....................................... 
................. 3
3 2 Baseline Data....................  ......................................................................................................
4 Comparative Strategies
..................................... - ■ .......................................  &
5  Comparative Analyses of Different Strategies
5.1  Gently Sloping Land. Slopes Up to 2 Percent ........... 
5.2  Undulating Land, Slopes 2 to 8 Percent ........................... ............. ..  . ..... 9
.  9
.9
5 3 Rolling Land. Slopes 8 to 16 Percent..........................................................................................9
5.4  Hilly, Steeply Dissected, and Moumainous Land, Slopes Steeper Than 16 Percent 10
5.5  Recommended Course of Action ..................................................................... .............  10
5 6 Adoption Rate ......................................  ..............  ................................. .................................. 11
2AMS-ULG Baro-AJcobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
Appendicesi5.
INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENTS
APPENDIX:
SOIL DEGRADATION: CROP REDUCTION FACTORS
1            INTRODUCTION
The Master Plan proposes different strategies to enhance the environment and economy of the proiect area This annex reviews the relationship between land management strategies and soil degradation In particular, it examines the effectiveness of alternative practices to control soil degradation and improve crop yields These include the following
(1) Monocropping (no-project scenario).
(2) Grass strips with poor residue management.
(3) Agroforestry with poor residue management,
(4) Agroforestry with improved residue management,
(5) Mechanical methods combined with the above.
(6) Improved agronomical methods, and
(7) Changes of land use forestry, grazing, . .
2             SOIL DEGRADATION AND CROP YIELDS
Land degradation occurs in various forms throughout the project area water-caused soil erosion, chemical degradation (leaching of bases), physical degradation (loss of beneficial soil properties such as porosity), and biological degradation (loss of humus) Each of
these poses a potent risk to food production, taken together, they threaten agriculture and the benefits of the many projects this master plan is charged with assessing
Factors that contribute to potentially high rates of land degradation in the project area include
•  high rainfall,
•  a high proportion of sloping lands, and
•  a propensity on the part of most farmers, acting out of ignorance, to misuse land
Contrary to many areas in Ethiopia, however, land degradation appears to be neither destructive nor spectacular: gullies are rare, soils appear to be deep, and crops appear to
TAMS-ULG 0ARO-AKO8O RIVER BAS’S MEGPATED DEVELOPMENT MASTER PLAN Appendix 15 . INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENTS
grow reasonably well This belies the fact of diminishing soil fertility as one of th principal reasons that farmers shift their crops from one field to another and em i * fallow, albeit often ineffectively, as components of their cultural practices With with increasing pressure upon a finite land surface, the opportunities to manage ing soil resources will lessen  soils will become increasingly thin, soil fertility 
-
decrease, food production will suffer
2.1           WATER-CAUSED SOIL EROSION
Soil erosion reduces plant productivity by decreasing soil depth, thereby reducing the capacity of soils to store water for plant use, and by selectively removing clays and tv- fines that adsorb soil nutrients essential to plant processes Soil erosion is a natural process. It becomes important to man only when soil is removed at a rate faster than produced In the humid uplands of the project area, weathering of basalts and granites ** will probably produce soil at a rate of about 20 t ha"  a" ; in the lowlands west of Gambela, soil production is probably about 6—8 t ha"  a"'. In contrast, the erosion of upland fields laid bare by farming would vary between 20 and 100 t ha"  a"
11
1
1      1 1 Soil
conservation practices are part of the answer, but these are unlikely to be effective on iand slopes greater than about 18 per cent, alternative forms of land use are another — ir.d 
probably much larger — part of the answer.
2.2 
OTHER FORMS OF SOIL DEGRADATION
The
FAO
(1978),    in    A    Provisional    Methodology    for    Soil    Degradation    Assessment,    mapped 
soil degradation hazard for Ethiopia The results that follow' derive from this document
2.2.1         CHEMICAL SOIL DEGRADATION
Under a very  humid  climate,  a soil with  free drainage and  low cation  exchange capacity loses its bases through  leaching  This loss of bases leads to  the soil becoming  more aad in  reaction,  sometimes leading  to  aluminium toxicity  Large amounts of fertilizer,  mainly nitrogen,  may  also  be lost each  year by  leaching  down  to  beyond  the depth  of crop  roots The FAO (1978) rates the climatic hazard  of chemical degradation  in  the project area as moderate
2.2.2        BIOLOGICAL SOIL DEGRADATION
The immediate result of biological degradation is the loss of soil organic matter, the main consequences of which are physical degradation, loss of nutrients, and an increase o runoff and erosion. The FAO (1978) rates the hazard of biological soil degradation in project area as being very high.
1. Soil losses have been measured at Dizi Research Station on »«•  year*^ '*
of Nitisols found in the project area. The site was only recer
' ^ t«ti'
Bn
its original forest cover, however, and is unlikely to be repre locations farmed for many years.
c
(
TAMS-ULG BARO-AKOBO RIVER BASIN INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT MASTER PuAN5. INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENTS
----- --------------------------------------------------- —----------------------- ----------------------------APPENDIX: 3 METHODOLOGY
Much of this document concerns the theme of sustainable land use The hydrologic condition of the upland basin is rapidly changing This section reviews the methodologies used to examine the relative worth of different strategies to reduce land degradation
3.1            CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
The issue of sustainability relates largely to soil erosion and the ability to retain sufficient soil resources to support agriculture, grazing, and forestry' Soil erosion influences the ability of land to support vegetation, in part through its effect on soil organic matter as
well as soil moisture storage For this reason we extend the subject of soil loss to include its effects on soil carbon and, through complex feedback mechanisms, the effect of soil carbon on soil erosion and plant production
3.1.1       SOIL LOSS
SCUAf (Soil Conservation Under Agroforestry. Young and Muraya, 1987), a computer model developed by ICRAF (International Council for Research in Agroforestry), was used io estimate soil loss and its impact upon soil carbon and NPP (net primary production) for different conditions of land use A modification of the USLE (Universal Soil Loss Equation. Wischmeier and Smith, 1978), SCUAF estimates soil loss as
A-RKLSC
where A is the computed soil loss per unit area
R,   the  rainfall  and  runoff  factor,  is  the  number  of  rainfall  erosion  index units
K,  the soil credibility  factor,  is the soil loss rate per erosion  index  for a specified  soil as measured  on  a standard  unit plot (9  percent slope.  22  1 meters long  in continuous cultivated fallow)
0)
s
L,   the  slope-length  factor,  is  the  ratio  of  soil  loss  front  the  field  slope length to that from a standard unit plot.
S,  the slope steepness factor, is ihe ratio of soil loss from the Held slope
gradient to that from a 9-percent slope under otherwise identical
conditions
Cj, the cover and management factor, is the ratio of soil loss from an area
with specified cover and management to that from an identical area m
tilled continuous fallow.
SCUAF is an iterative computer program it computes annual cycles of soil loss, NPP. 
and soil carbon flows, and then uses this information to transform coefficient values
affecting output for the following year In this way it closely mimics nature: decreasing 
soil depth and soil organic matter adversely affect the quantity and quality of protective TAMS ULG BARO-AKOBO RIVER BASIN INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT MASTER PLAN Appendix 35. INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENTS
plant material which, in turn, expose soil to increasing rates of soil loss. This $oo 
into a continually worsening succession of decreasing vegetative production l^jn increasing soil erosion until it eventually approaches a low, steady state of lar>^ ,0
ity. 
Both the USLE and SCUAF estimate rainfall- and runoff-caused surficial soil | 
do not account for soil lost to other processes such as ravening, gulling, stream
erosion, and mass wasting. Nonetheless, the values they provide can serve as ind‘
other types of soil erosion For example, soil losses in excess of 50 or 60 t/ha/a ICaton°^ assumed to lead directly to gulling and generally worsening hydrologic condition^ contributing watershed This, in turn, will likely contribute to channel expansion 
material load transport, and bank erosion
Time limitations reduced the amount of analyses we could perform within the mandate of this inquiry. For this reason we were unable to estimate soil loss for other than C indicator crops teff and maize Eventually, this study could be expanded to include ±. remaining crops typical of the project area We were also unable to conduct computations' for the full range of land slopes and slope lengths encountered in the field. Instead our analyses considered only those slopes which separate terrain classes as defined bv the FAO; slope lengths were nominally taken to be 50 meters The types of land treatments also had to take into account the sociological and economic circumstances of catchment residents With this in mind we attempted to identify successful technical solutions to soil erosion that also respect the considerations and aspirations of farmers These include different schemes such as grass strips and agroforestry, defined as strip intercropping where trees occupy 20 percent of the crop surface and are densely planted on the contour; grass strips are planted at a similar density and occupy an identical surface
Coefficient values for most SCUAF parameters were obtained from tables published in Predicting Rainfall Erosion Losses: A Guide to Conservation Planning by Wischmeier and Smith (1978), and from soil loss measurements carried out by the Soil Conservation Research Project at Dizi, 9-km distant from Metu
Coefficient R, rainfall erosivity, was computed by the Soil Conservation Research Project
d  PrO^CUv-
as 646 MJ cm ha'1
 h' . This is a middle value for the project area, which varies between 
1
300 and 900 MJ cm ha'1
 h'  roughly according to altitude (Krauer, 1988).
1
I
Values for coefficient K, soil erodibility, were not available In their absence we assumed an index of 0.20 metric tonne hectare hour hectare'  mega joule'  centimetre . coefficient C, the cover and management factor, were computed using subfactors pi» 
1
1
1
in Table 5 and Figures 5 through 7 of Wischmeier and Smith (1978) The compu^ took into account the agricultural calendar of the following different crop stage pen
•           Period F, rough fallow,
• 
Period SB, seedbed to 10 percent crop cover,
• 
Period 1, establishment: time to 50 percent crop cover,
• 
Period 2, development: time to 75 percent crop cover,
• 
Penod 3, maturing crop, and
• 
Period 4, residue or stubble.
TAMS-ULG BARO-AKOBO RIVER BASIN INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT MASTER PLAN5 . INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENTS
APPENDIX:
Finally, subfactors corresponding to crop stage, soil cover, slope (in the case of maize) and canopy condition were multiplied and weighted by seasonal rainfall to derive final C values (Table 1). Teff was assumed to have coefficient subfactors similar to those of
wheat — Wischmeier and Smith provide no published coefficient subfactors for its unique computation A default C coefficient of 0.006 was assumed for forest and for the agroforestry component of several of the proposed agricultural systems, for grass strips we applied a C factor of 0 01. Values for the combined slope and slope length coefficient, LS, are listed in Table 2 For slopes up to 16 percent slope they derive from Figure 11 in Wischmeier and Smith, for steeper slopes we used the equation
LS     r   l     i°3's     13
.2TTTJ            J J
where                 L is slope length, (metres) and
s is land slope (percent) (Mutchler, Murphree, and McGregor, 1988). Table 1. Coefficient values for SCUAF crop coefficient C
(2)
Maize according to land slope
(per cent)
Farming system
Crop monoculture
Crop with grus strips 
Agroforestry, poor residue mngt Agroforestry. improved residue mngt
2               8              16             30
0.2!        021        0.29        0 29
0 21       0.21        0 29       0 29
0 21       0 21        029        0 29
0 10 0 10 0 13 0.13
Teff
0 85
085
085 0.48
Note: C values for Left d<» not vary according to slope. See Wischmeier md Smith, 19^
For combined systems such as grass
strips or agroforestry where trees
Table 
2. Values 
of coefficient
LS
are intercropped with crops, we
used an intercropping factor to 
weight the relative influence of
Slope
cent)
(per
Coefficient
LS
trees or grass to reduce the overall
2
0.218
value of cropping coefficient C
8
1.28
Intercropped trees or grasses in hedgerow or contour strip cropping bear an influence which extends
16
3.60
30
6.09
50
11.8
beyond the surface area they oc
cupy This is because they affect
not only the area of their ground
surface, but also serve as a filter or barrier to overland flow as well as contribute vegetal matter to the area between hedgerows or grass strips. For monocropping we used no proportionality factor, for grass strips we used a factor of 0 1, for agroforestry with poor residue management it was 0.3 and with moderately good residue management 0 6.
3.1.2 ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY: SOIL RESOURCES
TAMS-ULG BARO-AKOBO RIVER BASIN INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT MASTER PLAN   Appendix 55 .
INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENTS
The    physical    sustainability    of    soil    resources    depends,    in    large    part,    on    the    relationshi between     joint     rates     of     soil     formation     and     soil     erosion;     their     economic     sustainabilitv depends    principally    on    soil    depth    how    much    soil    is    available    for    plant    development before    its    loss    impinges    on    production?    SCUAF    provides    a    means    of    estimating    soil erosion.    Soil    loss    rates    in    excess    of    20    t    ha'1      a'1      exceed    tolerable    limits    and    were on environmental grounds. 
3.1.3        SOIL CARBON ACCOUNTING
|
A    decrease    of    soil    carbon,    and    thus    organic    matter,    may    decrease    rates    of    plant the following reasons:
growth for
•           Lowering of organic matter leads to degradation of soil physical properties
•           There is likely to be an associated reduction in available nutrients soil organic matter protects nutrients against leaching, and then progressively releases them by mineralisation (Young and Muraya, 1987).
Soil organic carbon is lost by erosion, oxidation, and harvest, it evolves from plant processes and humification SCUAF estimates soil carbon additions from plant processes as well as from outside sources (mulching, manuring, . . .), it computes subtractions from soil erosion, decomposition, and oxidation Its methods are based largely on those developed by Nye and Greenland (1960) in their classic study of the net primary production of tropical soils under shifting cultivation
3.2 BASELINE DATA
1
Krauer, in 1988, computed a rain fall erosivity and iso-erodent map of Ethiopia, which shows erosivity values for the project area to vary between 300 and 900 MJ cm
ha‘* h* . He shows that erosivity varies more or less directly with altitude. Hagmann, in a soil survey of Dizi published in 1991, observed one soil had lost approximately 30 cm of depth after about 30 years of continuous agriculture
Table 3  .  Soil losses for differ
ent: treatments
Soil loss
Treatment
(t ha’x a1)
Grain (control) Grass strip Graded Fanya Juu Graded bund Level Fanya Juu Level bund
Source:             Personal communication, SoiT Conservation           Research           Project,           Addis
Ababa.
5.06
1.48
0.46
0.66
0.76
0.18 
—-— ---- m-------- '
p
y Soil Co— 
nlnetheP’ WhUe da* extranoi
mditaf65 C^rTCSpondin8 to 5 treatmenu and I control rem,ss because they fail °n °f soil ,OSSes for different treatments, they
less 3te data tO otiler sites (see Lal
rX ?°Se °bServed HaZa^n ’ Th i- SOil ,osses “ TabIe 3
3
parcel in bare fallow needed i
had a/" h
Ot 1S °n land rece
ead
y undergone cultivation f
ntly cleared fi ° d,*panty ma? result from the fact that
from
 forest, whereas that surveyed by Hagma-^ ror a lengthy period.
4              COMPARATIVE STRATEGIES
TAMS-ULG BARO-AKOBO RIVER BASIN INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT MASTER PLAN5. INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENTS
APPENDIX:
The following text gives non-dimensional tables of agricultural yields computed by SCUAF using the coefficients described in preceding pages Their purpose is to aid financial assessments of agricultural worth according to different management strategies In the tables. I means 100 per cent yield. 0.92 means 92 per cent, etc Their accuracy expands from 0 error during year I (the tables are non-dimensional) to ± 20 per cent by year 20 
4.1 STRATEGY 1: MONOCROPPING
Estimated crop ratios using continuous monocropping with poor residue management
Year
Slope
(per cent)
1
5
10
15
20
Maize
2
1.00
0.94
0.86
0.79
0.76
8
1.00
0.85
0.66
0.57
0.51
16
1.00
0.65
0.46
0.41
0.37
30
1.00
0.40
0.25
0.00
0.00
Teff
2
1.00
0.B7
0.74
0.63
0.59
8
1.00
0.56
0.44
0.41
0.39
16
1.00
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
Yields year
1: Maize
14 qtls
Teff
7  qtls
4.2 STRATEGY 2: GRASS STRIPS
Estimated crop ratios using grass strips
Year
Slope
(percent)
1
5
10
15
20
Maize
2
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.73
0.66
8
1.00
0.84
0.68
0.58
0.49
16
1.00
0.62
0.45
0.40
0.36
30
1.00
0.46
0.33
na
na
Teff
2
1.00
0.86
0.73
0.63
0.57
8
1.00
0.63
0.46
0.45
0.41
16
1.00
0.43
na
na
na
Yield year
l: Maize
11 .2 qtls
Teff
5 .6 qtls
TAMS - (JLG BAR0-AKC80 RIVER BASIN INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT MASTER PLAN
Appendix 75. INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENTS
4.3           STRATEGY 3: AGROFORESTRY WITH POOR RESIDUE
MENT
Estimated crop ratios using agroforestry with poor residue management
appendix
GF>
Year
Slope
(percent) 1 5 10 15
Maize
"—
20
2
1.00
0.95
0.88
0.82
8
1.00
0.89
0.77
0.67
16
1.00
0.71
0.49
0.43
30
1.00
0.54
0.38
0.29
0.78
0.50
0.40
0.20
Teff
2 1.00
0.91
0.80
8 1.00
0.71
0.52
0.71 
0.64
16 1.00
0.45
0.46 
0.45
0.38
Yield year 1: Maize
0 • 00 
0.00
Teff
11.2 qt Is
5.6   qtls
STRATEGY 4: AGROFORESTRY WITH IMPROVED RESIDUE MANAGEMENT
Estimated crop ratios using agroforestry with improved management of residues
Year
"
(percent)                    1                          5                        10                        15                        20
Maize
2
1.00
0.94
0.88
0.82
0.70
8
1.00
0.93
0.85
0.78
0.71
16
1.00
0.88
0.74
0.63
0.57
30
1.00
0.82
0.64
0.53
0.46
50
1.00
0.66
0.45
0.00
0.00
2 1.00
0.93
0.84
0.77
0.71
8 1.00
0.88
0.75
0.64
0.57
16 1.00
0.71
0.43
0.00
0.00
30 
1.00
0.55
0.39
0.00
0.00
Yield year 1: Maize
Teff
11.2    qtls 5.6    qtls
4.5 STRATEGY 5: MECHANICAL PRACTICES
Table 3 shows good control of soil erosion using mechanical practices Indeed 
effectiveness even exceed those given by Wischmeier and Smith (1978) in ^
t
which is used to design conservation terraces As shown in Table 4, however, practices can also reduce crop yields. Farmers will readily discern the advan g disadvantages of new farming practices.
eir ^^ ti|irlielj ■
TAMS-ULG BARO-AKOBO RIVER BASIN INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT MASTER PLAN5. integrated developments
APPENDIX:
5             COMPARATIVE
ANALYSES OF DIF
FERENT STRATEGIES
The analyses described in Section 4 show that soil conservation is. at best, a partial solution to the problems facing the project area While conservation can help reduce soil loss, it is most effec- tive where soil loss is not severe When implemented to correct specifications, it involves practices that occupy field space, and hence
Table 4. Yield reductions result
ing  fro® nechanical soil conserva
tion practices.
Practice
Yield 
reduction
(per cent)
Control
0
Grass strip (Levell
20.1
Graded Fanya Juu
17.4
Graded bund
38.6
Level Fanya Juu
18.6
Level bund
34.1
Source: Soil Conservation Research Project
means that less crops can be produced Agroforestry, because it uses crop residues to 
protect the soil surface, provides habitat for small mammals that can damage crops
Finally, any practice that interferes with oxen-pulled ploughs will be difficult for fanners
to accept
Viable land-use alternatives need to fulfil criteria of technical effectiveness and socio
economic acceptance The following paragraphs review the different alternatives in view
of the knowledge gamed from preceding sections The alternatives are segregated 
according to slope. In reality lhey should also be separated according to land type as well
as possible sub-groupings within each land type, but ume constraints preclude this at this
time Thus, this is a general guide which requires further definition before it can serve the purposes of land use planning
5.1          GENTLY SLOPING LAND, SLOPES UP TO 2 PERCENT
Monocropping on gently sloping land, principally because of poor crop residue
management, reaches serious rates of soil fertility loss in about 15 years. Grass strips, 
because they address only part of the field, provide an ineffectual remedy. Improved agronomic methods (better yielding crop vaneties, better plant spacing) and improved management of crop residues will permit yields from monocropping to remain consistent
with present rates of production
5.2          UNDULATING LAND, SLOPES 2 TO 8 PERCENT
Monocropping of maize is within soil loss tolerances only if accompanied by terracing with strip cropping and improved agriculture similar to that described above Grass strips and agroforestry with poor residue management will prove technically ineffective, improved agroforestry is a technically suitable alternative, but will likely meet with fanner disapproval because of its complexity and reduced financial returns These could possibly increase, however, if the field were to include fruit and other high value trees such as coffee Teff is unsustainable on undulating land unless accompanied by improved agroforestry methods
5.3          ROLLING LAND, SLOPES 8 TO 16 PERCENT
TAMS-ULG BAR0-AK080 RIVER BASIN INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT »1ASiER PLAN Appendix 95 . INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENTS
Appendix^
Agriculture is unsuitable on rolling land unless supported by drastic soil conservation methods In this report we considered agroforestry to represent 20 percent of a fanner’ fields It may be that other forms of agroforestry, say contour stripcropping with trees using a 40 or SO percent rate of forest cover, would be effective Farmers are unlikely accept such alternatives due to their adverse financial impact, but this could be improv \ agroforestry included high value tree crops such as fruit and coffee.
5.4           HILLY, STEEPLY DISSECTED, AND MOUNTAINOUS LAND, SLOPES
STEEPER THAN 16 PERCENT
These lands axe inappropriate for agriculture, but some could be suitable for orchards grazing, and forestry Many of these lands are currently cultivated and will probably remain in agriculture until such time as their yields attain extremely low-level, steady st • rates of production.
5.5            RECOMMENDED COURSE OF ACTION
From the preceding material it should be apparent that there is no perfect solution to the problem of land degradation in the project area: those solutions that are technically correct are rejected on economical or social grounds; those that are acceptable to farmers are unlikely to be technically effective in the long term Even if a perfect plan were to b implemented with total acceptance and impeccable execution, it would probably fail because of the accelerating rate of upland degradation and the time it would take to implement such a perfect plan
We are facing then an imperfect compromise, one in which we have to accept some failui knowing that we will also achieve an occasional success Those successes will likely hav a ripple effect and be implemented on surrounding fields Part of the action plan has to deal with strengthening our knowledge about feasible solutions to a problem which is technically, sociologically, and economically complex we simply do not yet have adequate solutions for the degradation of steep, highly populated lands in the highland tropics The best answer may be one that gains time in the hope that improved technoloj may yet appear
The plan rests on the premise of giving the farmers the technical knowledge they need tn control land degradation and improve their livelihoods They themselves, as individuals and as groups, will have to decide the course of action they will undertake The actual remedies will contain elements already described in preceding pages improved crop residue management, improved runoff control, and perhaps agroforestry. To prove attractive these activities will have to form part of a general agronomic package — this will be developed by the agronomic section of this Master Plan. Such a package cou include elements such as improved seeds, improved farm implements, wavs of achieving better plant spacing, and improved use of mineral fertilisers
An important aspect of the plan is research There already is a soil conservation res project operating in the catchments, but it lacks an effective means of communicauon this project Collaboration and support need to improve between projects that s mutual interests.
b
•arct
TAMS-ULG BARO-AKOBO RIVER BASIN INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT MASTER PLAN
Append^ 1S «■ INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENTS
APPENDIX:
Another element of the plan is training Ministry personnel do not yet have the knowledge and experience which will allow them to work effectively with farmers Much of this training will be technical; much will also be in methods of stimulating community action The stature of agents needs to be increased within the communities of their work.
A final component of the plan is institutional support: providing the means with which to do the job. Technical tools, transpon. technical texts, and other essential items of project support are essential
5.6         ADOPTION RATE
Adoption rates will likely be low, no more than 2 or 3 per cent during year one, possibly 5 or 6 per cent during year two They are unlikely to exceed 60 per cent after year 10
TAMS’ULG BAR0-AKD80 RIVER BASIN INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT MASTER PLAN                           Appendix 115 . INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENTS
6 REFERENCES CITED
FAO 1978. Provisional Methodology for Soil Degradation Assessment Rome.
APPENDIX:
Plagmann, J. 1991 The soils of Dizi/filubabor. Soil Cons Res Proj  U. Berne, Min Ag 
Eth Rep 18 136 pp
Krauer. J 1988. Rainfall Erosivity and Iso-erodent Map of Ethiopia. Soil Cons Res Proj., U. Berne, Min Ag Eth Rep 15. 132 pp
Lal. R f ed) 1988 Soil Erosion Research Methods Soil and Water Cons Soc Ankeny.
Mulchler, CK. CE Murphree and KC McGregor 1988 Laboratory and Field Plots for Soil Erosion Studies In Soil Erosion Research Methods, R Lal ed Soil and Water Cons Soc. Ankeny, pp 9-38
Nye, PH and DJ Greenland I960 The Soil Under Shifting Cultivation. Tech Com 51. 
Commonwealth Bureau of Soils Harpenden
Wischmeier, WH and DD Smith 1978 Predicting Rainfall Erosion Losses — A Guide to Conservation Planning US Dept Ag. Ag Handbook No. 537.
Youngs A and P Muraya 1987. SCUAF: Soil Changes Under Agroforestry A computer program Nairobi: International Council for Research in Agioforestry (program on diskette).
f
TAMS-ULG SARD-A<C30 RIVER 0*SIN INTEGRATED DEVELOWCfT MASTER -
r w'
appendix 12I

Summery

Baro-Akobo River Basin Master Plan Summary

Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan

Volume II: Resource Base and Development Options

1. Introduction

The Baro-Akobo River Basin Master Plan is one of twelve studies commissioned by the Ethiopian government to assess development potential. The basin covers 75,910 km² with a population of 2.2 million (1995) projected to grow to 5.3 million by 2035.

Key Characteristics:

Major rivers: Baro, Akobo, Alvero, Gilo (tributaries to White Nile)
Mean Annual Runoff: 19 billion m³
Elevation range: 400m (Gambela Plain) to 3,300m (highlands)
Annual rainfall: 600mm (lowlands) to 3,000mm (highlands)

2. Resource Base

Water Resources

The basin has significant water resources with:

42 rainfall stations analyzed (1952-1992 data)
16 hydrometric stations monitoring river flows
Two main aquifer types: Basement Complex and Gambela Alluvium

Table 3.5: Yield of Proposed Reservoirs
Project Name	Mean Annual Flow (m³/s)	Active Storage (MCM)	Yield at 98% Reliability (m³/s)
Gambela	371	6,600	362
Bonga	368	6,682	358
Tams	353	4,807	329

Land Use and Agriculture

Key agricultural features:

554,000 ha cultivated (75% cereals, 6% pulses, 2% oilseeds)
Coffee occupies >25% of crop area in Welega region
Forest cover declined from 70,000 km² (1973) to 35,000 km² (1988)

3. Development Objectives

The master plan outlines four planning periods:

Immediate (1995-2000): Quick-impact interventions to protect resources
Short Term (2000-2015): Rural development projects
Medium Term (2015-2035): Major water resource developments
Ultimate (post-2035): Full basin development

Key Development Goals:

Arrest soil fertility and water resource depletion
Increase subsistence agriculture production
Develop hydropower potential
Improve rural infrastructure
Encourage commercial agriculture and agro-industry

4. Proposed Interventions

Water Resources

22 potential dam sites identified for irrigation and hydropower
Flood protection schemes for Gambela Plain (20-year event protection)
Groundwater development for village water supply

Agriculture

Potential irrigation development of 335,000 ha (Russian study)
Priority given to smallholder agriculture improvements
Soil conservation and reafforestation programs

Infrastructure

Road network improvement (1,058 km existing all-weather roads)
Water supply development (current coverage: 26% urban, 7% rural)
Electrification expansion (current limited to towns)

5. Challenges

Rapid deforestation and soil erosion in catchment areas
Malaria and trypanosomiasis limiting development potential
Food security concerns with population growth
Limited institutional capacity and budget constraints
International water law considerations with downstream countries