FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA
MINISTRY OF WATER RESOURCES
BAROAKOBO RIVER BASIN
INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT
MASTER PLAN STUDY
FINAL REPORT
ANNEX 3 IT. I
SOCIO-ECONOMICFEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA MINISTRY OF WATER RESOURCES
BARO-AKOBO RIVER BASIN INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT
MASTER PLAN STUDY
ANNEX 3
SOCIO-ECONOMICS
Part 1
.Annex 3A
Population Aspects
Annex 3B
Socio-Ethnic Groups Analysis
Annex 3C
Economic Infrastructures
Annex 3D
Social Infrastructures
TAMS-ELG Baro-Akobc River Basin Initiated Development Master PlanINDEX OF VOLUMES AND ANNEXES
Volume L...
Volume II: -
Volume III:
Volume iVi
Volume V...
.. Resource Base and Develop. Emexnetc Oupttivioen Ss ummary .. Master Plan Development
.. project Area Maps
.. pre feasibility studies
/. WA TER RESOURCES
Annex 1A
Annex IB
.Annex IC
Climatology Hydrology
Flood Studies
Annex ID
............. Ground Water
Annex I £ Reservoir operation Studies
Annex IF
Annex IG
Sediment Studies
. Water Resources Cost Estimating
Annex in ............................................... Irrigation Projects 
Annex IT
Wat er Su p pl y Proj ect s
Annex 1J ..................... Hydropower Projects 2.         .M TURAE RESOl RCES
.Annex 2A
Annex 2B Soils and Soil Conservation
Annex 2C      ........................ Geology'
Land Evaluation
Annex 2D
Annex 2E
Annex 2F Wildlife
..     Mineral Resources Forestry
Annex 2G............................... Tourism Annex 2H Apiculture
.Annex 21                        Agriculture Annex 2J. .                 Renewable Energy
Annex 2 K................. Fisheries 
Annex 2L....
......... Livestock
Annex 3E
Economic and Financial Analysis
.Annex 3F . Institutional Support
< ENVIRONMENT
.Annex 4
. Environment
TAMS-ULG BurD-Akobo River Basin Integriied Dcvdopninni Mijtrr PljuSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX
3A POPULATION ASPECTS
ANNEX 3A
POPULATION ASPECTS
f uh.
tl^Akolx. «nr, tU.l„ l.ttrcrjiird
M.fler PUnSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX3A POPULATION ASPECTS
CONTENTS
I.     ENTRO DI C I ION
.............
11
Definition of the Demncraphic Stuck
1
I 2   Assessment of Available Data 1 3 Methodology
n,
2.
INSTITUTIONAL ASPECTS OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC SI I DA ............................... ............ ................. 3
4.    I The data
2 2 Population Policy
22/ Policy description
2.2 2     (irganisattoii for the implementation of the potrex
2 23 Qf^jh/.WIofw involved tn rhtf implementation of the policy
3
4
*
3.    ANALYSIS g I « r ■.■ BIB IB I* .«*+*+«•»*> i'M a-B •!> + «-■-■ M«rt»«****»*,
***•*•■ ■ ■ ■»■•■•**»»»»»»*•• ***‘S‘S’S™
3 I Population Characteristics
31.1      Prehmtrwn commenls....................... ........- ......................
31.2
3.1 3
3 I 4
3. 1.5
3.1.6
3 I '
Population Sice,,,.,...........  .......... -....................................
i
Past evolution /9S4-/99J. ........... .. 
.............
Geographical Differences in Growth Pates
Population wrurrure I I 1 I I IITYtf ■■Hail ■■■■•tL + + + + + 4++4m«
Ethnic groups.................
Religion ...................... ...
--- = .»•• .1 a ilI ti M »
1 2 Lrbamsation
n w*
■ ■ * •
. 6 ... 6
7
7
A /'■
1J
75
7’
75
IS
32/
J 22
3 23 J 2.4
/Jtf/fmwtvts.. ...
/’aw Situation tin 19S4i
Present situation
Future Evolution... ...
- /*
iv
19
20
3 3 Fcrfilitv
•a ■
331       Past Situation fin 1934 J .....................
JJ2
J J. J
J J 4 J 4 1 J 4 2 543 3 4 4 J4J
Present Situation fin I WO)................ decent ewtun&n fl9S4^90)
.
Future evolution
Past Situation fin 19841 Present Situation fin /W4i Health situation
AIDS.
23 ... 23
24
23
. 26
■> -
4
v -
Future evolution
» - ■ + . I ■» « h ■ a i-fc'l. a. - - - . i- ■•             . B. I. . ., . ..
4.
I 5 Migration
O       I       /iiv       \/f}{rtiliiut       I'.ifltm.
t 5.Future 'fit^ratit *r pattern
( ON( 1.1 NIONS VM> IMM ICA I IONS FOR DEN El.OPMFN I
4
1 Population Sue
I I I Globally.
i / 2 /Irnvnet Wi 2W3J
23
30 
. 32 3tf
46
■ 9 vi 42
42
42
45
I IMS ( t (. \Kutx. Hbrr Haun
n. trlnpmrai Mitfr Hao
JA IIsocio-economics 3a ash-Os
/ J Regiona/ Evolution............................... ***... 4.2 Rural / Urban Population
4 3 Age and sex Structure.
W M/mfrers............................—.....................
7J.2 Percent Disfnbwrion ............................. ..... ■* 4 4 Population of School Age
5. NEED FOR FURTHER STUDIES..........---51
APPENDIX 1 - STATISTICAL TABLES....................................... .. .............. .................*♦....... **■**•■--■ S3
TABLES
Table I
Table 3
Table 4
Table 5
Table 6
Table 7
Table 8
Table 9
Tabic ID
Table 11
Table 12
Table 13
Table 14
Table 15
Tabic 16
Tabic 17
Tabic 18
Tabic 19
Table 20
Table 21
Table 22
Table 23
Table 24
Table 25
Table 26
Tabic 27
Table 28
fable 29
Table 30
Table 31
Table 32
Table 33
1993 Population Numbers by ’’Present Region" within The Project Area
8
Resettled people within the Project Area by  ethnic  group and * 1984' region in 198813
National age and sex  distribution by  type of residence, in 199016
% Share Of Major Ethnic Groups In Each " 1984 Region”. In 1984
17
% Share Of Major Religions  In Each ”1984 Region11, In 198418
Evolution Of The Urban Population In The Project .Area............................................................20
Assumptions    about    Future    Evolution    of    the    Population    of    Major    Towns    21
TAMS-ULG Assumptions about Growth Rates of the Urban Population
22
Regional Fertility Patterns within the Project Area. By Type of Resident In 198423 National Fertility Patterns, By Type of Residence. In 1984 and 1990
CSA Assumptions about Total Fertility Rate (Children Per Woman Aged 15-49).. . TaMS-ULG .Assumptions About Total Fertility Rate For The Project Area.
Regional Mortality Indicators By Type Of Resident In 1984 .............................................. Neo-Natal. Infant and Child Mortality Rates, In Rural Areas (%o)... .
1984-1990 Evolution of National Mortality Indicators By Type Of Residence General Health Coverage rates in 1992. In Rural Areas (%)
Immunisation Rates In 1992, In Rural Areas (%)
Immunisation Rates In 1995 (% of Concerned Population)
Nuxnuon among 6-59 Months Children in 1992, in Rural Areas (%)
AIDS Cases by Year of Report
Reported AIDS Cases By Age Group........ ............... b
Reported AIDS Cases in Regions Of The Project Area
Reported Aids Cases By Occupation.
1984-2004 Evolution of HIX’ Prevalence (%of Adult Population)
.....24
26 ,..27
28 ..,.28
.....29
30
...  30 ...„3I
31
32
.33 33
34
.35
CSA Assumptions About Expectation Of Life At Birth (Years).................................................. 36
TAMS-ULG assumptions about expectation of life at birth for the Project .Area (years) 37
Migration Rales. By Type Of Migrant And Type Of Migration, In 1981-82 (%o)
. 39
Age    Structure    Of    Migrants    By    Type    Of    Migration   And   Region,   In   1984   39
TaMS-ULG  Assumptions  About  Yearly  Migration  Flows  Within  The  Project  Area41
Growth of Population and densities. 1985 - 2035 42
Population Numbers By ”1993 Region" In 2035.................................... 44
1985 - 2035 Evolution Of Urban Population In The Project Area 45
Table  34  a  1
By Type Of Resident
1985 - 2035 Evolution Of Project Area s Number Of School Age Population,
49
Table 34 b
Of Resident
■ t.......................................................................... .................................................. ....... : 49
1985 - 2035 Evolution Of Project Area's Number Of School Age Population. By Type
-----.JO
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated DevHop men t Master PlanSOCIO-ECONOMTCS
ANNEX 3A population aspects
LIST OF ACRONYMS
ASFR .Age Specific Fertility Rates
COR Crude Death Rate
CSA Central Statistical Authority
IEC ................ Information, Education and Communication MCH Mother and Child Health
NFFS            National      Family      and      Fertility      Survey NPC National Population Council
NUP1             Natio nal Urb an P lanni ng Inst i tu te RPC                        Regional Population Council RPO Regional Population Office
TFR Total Fertil ity Rate
ZPC Zonal Population Council ZPO Zonal Population Office
TAMS-ULG Bar^Akobn Rner Hann Inle^tcd D^dopmeri X^- P|au
3 A - ivSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPEC^
INTRODUCTION
1.l        Definition of the Demographic Study
The study  consists  in the evaluation of the present situation, in order to be abie to propose reasonable assumptions  for the future taking into account the past evolution A triple approach is needed
•      of  the  present  situation,  in  order  to  answer  the  question:  "how  many  arc  they  now,  and where?"   From   these   data,   population   densities   can   be   derived   provided   areas   of   the various   weredas   are   available   These   densities   are   needed   for   other   analyses,   such   as Population Support Capacity analysis.
•      of  the  past  evolution,  in  order  to  answer  the  question  '"how  did  the  population  evolve towards the present situation9’1. This study includes both:
0   a   comparison   of   past   (1984)   and   present   population   figures   by   wereda,   which makes  possible  the  mapping  of  the  geographical  differences  in  growth  rates  But  to identify1    the   origin   of   the   population   growth,   i.c.   to   which   extent   it   is   because   of natural   increase   (births   and   deaths)   or   migration,   is   not   possible   with   these   data, which must be considered as basic data, but too crude
0   an   analysis   of   fertility,   mortality   and   migration   patterns   (by   age   and   sex),   which gives    information    about    the    components    of    population    growth    of    the    future evolution,   "how   many   will   they   be,   and   where9"   From   these   data,   population densities    will    be    derived    Knowing    these    densities    allows    analyses,    such    as Population   Support   Capacity   analysis,   and   demand   forecasts   for   water,   electric power, etc
1.2 Assessment of Available Data
Population  numbers in  199-1 The 1994 census  data was  released after this  study  was undertaken. It is  clear that this  data supersedes  the projections  made from the 1984 census used in this  report, and it would be desirable to update the figures  on the basis  of the census data
Population   growth   components,   in   relation   with   fertility,   mortality,   and   migration:   recent   data are very scanty, and no data in relation with ethnicity seem to exist
□     a  fertility  partem  for  rural  areas  of  the  whole  country  (Ethiopia),  in  1990,  is  available from   the   National   Family   and   Fertility   Survey   (NFFS)   No   information   seems   to   be available at a larger geographical scale .
□      mortality:  information  about  child  and  infant  mortality  for  rural  areas  in  1990  (NFFS source)   No   information   seems   to   be   available   about   aduli   mortality,   and   on   a   lower geographical level ,
migration  nothing  at  ail  is  available,  although  it  would  probably  be  possible  to  derive the information from the 1994 census data.
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin In teem ltd Development Master Plan
JA - ]SOCIO-ECONOMICS
1.3 Methodology
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
To know the recent evolution is  of utmost importance, when so many  events  have affected, directly  or indirectly, lhe population of the Project Area among others  resettlement, refugees, war. famine, etc
Without the new data this  study  was  compelled to carry  out lhe projection using the data of the 1984 census, and to make assumptions  about the 1984-95 evolution, using whatever information that already exists in the office of the Central Statistical Authority (the CSA)
For projection purposes, the « components  method » has  been used, consisting in applying natality, mortality  and migration patterns  to the age sex  distribution. Details  are provided in the related sections hereafter.
TAMS-ULG Baru-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master PlanSOCIO-ECONOMICS
annex m population aspe^
2.
institutional aspects of the demographic study
2.1       The data
In  each  paragraph  of  this  report  pertaining  to  specific  aspects  of  population  structure  and dynamics, the source of available data is presented, and the quality of the data is assessed
Below are presented the major sources of data
The Central Statistical Authority  (CSA) is  of course the major source of information, In fact. CSA is  in charge of producing basic  quantitative information relating to any  economic and social aspect of life in Ethiopia For example, it has among others the responsibility of
C  population  ar.d  housing  censuses,  the  latest  conducted  in  1984  and  1994  But  also specific censuses, such as the 1988 population and housing census in the resettlemen: areas
~  demographic  surveys,  such  as  the  1990  National  Family  and  Fertility  Survey,  or  the Demographic and Health Survey to be conducted in 1996,
□   specific social surveys, such as the 1992 National Rural Nutrition Survey;
□   vital registration system statistics,
U agricultural surveys.
0 employment surveys, such as the 1987-88 Rural Labour Force Survey;.
The Ministry  of Health whose department of statistics  issues  health statistics  in order to follow up its  activities  For the purpose of our study, the most useful information relates  to the components  of natural increase, i.e fertility  and mortality  The major information relates to:
L  activities  of  the  Ministry,  such  as  the  Expanded  Programme  of  Immunisation  (issuing yearly   immunisation   rates   by   region),   other   Mother   and   Child   Health   (MCH) programmes including Family Planning activities.
health  situation  in  the  country  general  morbidity  (a  large  survey  was  conducted  in 1995 all over the country), or specific risks such as HIV prevalence and AIDS follow up (a  permanent  national  information  system  covering  58  hospitals  all  over  the  country produces data on seropositivity among population and AIDS cases), etc
V arious  NGOs, working in the scope of health and social problems  (including water and sanitation aspects), should be quoted, since very often they gather interesting information - particularly on a local level which helps them for planning their daily activities. One of the most famous and biggest is Family Guidance Association in Ethiopia, in charge among others of the Population Concern Project, but there are many other NGOs
UNHCR follows  the populations  of registered refugees  all over the country  They  update permanently their statistics, and conduct from time to time specific surveys (such as about AIDS prevalence in refugee camps).
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basic Integrated Development Master PlanSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
The National Urban Planning  Institute (NUPI) is  a very  important source of information about urban development all over the country, since it is  in charge of either carrying out or reviewing or monitoring studies  on urban development in the country' Therefore, one can find the existing (recent or old) Urban Master Plans  of many  towns  in its  library. for example, the 1995 Master Plans of Asos* and Gambela were consulted there.
On a regional level, most of the ministries  have local branches, where specific  information can be found, not only  the same information as  on national level, but also specific  surveys conducted for local purposes.
2.2 Population Policy
2.2.1 Policy description
Ethiopia adopted recently  a Population Policy, which can be considered as  a global programme defining the role and the place of people in their country  An extensive description of the policy  is  given in the official document called National Population Policy of Ethiopia, published by  the Office of the Prime Minister in April 1993 A brief summary  of this policy is presented below, the texts in quotes being extracted from this document
Existing situation
"Demographic  factors  such as  young age structure, uneven spatial distribution of the population fuelled by  a continuing high fertility  exacerbate the severe state of underdevelopment in Ethiopia
"low productivity in almost all sectors oT the economy resulting in high rates of
unemployment and underemployment and hence in absolute deprivation and apathy,
~ "low accessibility of basic social services such as education, health and housing;
□ "the perennial problem of food insecurity affecting many parts of the country;
I "high prevalence of maternal, infant and child morbidity and mortality - problems that
are partially attributed to the low status of women and high fertility;
"low life expectancy at birth".
In   order   to   deal   with   this   problem   and   mobilise   sufficient   energy   and   resources,   among   the steps ihe Government has taken are:
the adoption of a new economic policy aiming al introducing structural changes in the
economy,
□ the decentralisation of certain aspects of the decision making process to the regions 
and their zonal subdivisions
General Objectives
'This  policy  has  for its  major goal the harmonisation of the population growth and the capacity  of Ethiopia for the development and rational utilisation of natural resources, thereby creating conditions conducive to the improvement of the level of welfare of the population"
TAMS-LLG BaroAkubn River Basin
Development Master Plan
jA -4SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASpErrt
This involves:
.
,
□ -Closins the gap between high population growth and low eooootrnc prodllcli
through planned reduction of population growth and mcreas.ng economtc returns. ’
-expediting economic and social development process through holistic integral
' development programmes designed to expedite the structural differentiation of
economy and employment,
Z "reducing the rate of rural to urban migration;
I     ’maintaining/improving     the     carving     capacity     of     the     environment     by     taking appropriate environmental protection conservation measures,
" "raising the economic  and social status  of women by  freeing them from restrictions and drudgeries  of traditional life and making it possible for them to participate productively in the larger community.
~  "significantly  improving  the  social  and  economic  status  of  vulnerable  groups  (women, youth, children and the elderly)."
Specific objectives
Specific objectives are
□    "reducing the current total fertility rate of 7 7 children per woman to approximately 4.0 by the year 2015,
□      "reducing   maternal,   infant   and   child   morbidity   and   mortality   rates   as   well   as promoting the level of general welfare of the population,
□    "significantly increasing female participation at all levels of the education system.
C   "removing   all   legal   and   customary   practices   militating   against   full   enjoyment   of economic  and  social  rights  by  women  including  the  full  enjoyment  of  property'  rights and access to full employment,
"ensuring spatially balanced population distribution patterns with a view to
maintaining environmental security and extending the scope of development activities;
l_ "improving productivity in agriculture and introducing off-farm non agricultural
activities for the purpose of employment diversification,
l_ “mounting an effective countrywide population information and education programme addressing issues  pertaining to small family  size and its  relationship with human welfare and environmental security".
Major Tasks
Major tasks to achieve the policy objectives include
1      improving the quality and scope of family planning service delivery
2    population research, data collection, analysis and dissemination, particularly focusing on the study of interrelationship between population factors and development variables
□   expansion and strengthening domestic capacity for training in population, not only in demography and population studies (in specialised institutions), but also in family planning (in medical schools as well as in nursing schools, and in technical and vocational schools)
□   expansion of Information, Education and Communication (IEC) pertaining to population and development issues, and social mobilisation
TAMS-1* LG Baro-AKobo River Basin Integrated Development Master PT*n
JA-5SOCIO-ECONOMICS
2.22 Organisation for the implementation of the policy
ANNEX 3a POPULATION aspects
Since populalian/demographic  factors  are to be regarded as  both determinants  and consequences  of rhe level of economic  and social development, there is  a strong necessity  to design multi-disciplinary  population programmes  In the past, the required organisation to implement rhe policy  consisted in considering it as  a special sector in the Office ot the Prime Minister This involved the establishment of
~ at a national level
0 a National Population Council (NPC) chaired by the Prime Minister, in charge of
developing specific policies and programmes, defining a broad legal framework for
[EC actions, and to review short, medium and long term plans of action.
0 an Office of Population within the Office of the Prime Minister, in charge ot
activities implementation and co-ordination, action follow-up, etc
r regional and zonal level the organisations will be responsible for the functional of a
system of registration of vital events, data collection, for mobilising community 
participation in population activities, reporting to Regional council.
0 regional level regional population council (RPC I and regional population office
(RPO)
0 zonal zonal population council (ZPC) and zonal population office (ZPO)
0 wereda committees on population and related activities
2.2.3 Organisations involved in the implementation of the policy
Responsibilities  of various  governmental and non governmental organisations  have been defined, in order to better co-ordinate the actions  of any  participant in the Policy  To understand to what extent the Population Policy  involves  administration offices, the list of organisations quoted in the document is as follows:
□    Ministry of Educa lio n
□    Ministry of Information
_■ Ministry of Health
J Ministry of Labour and Social .Affairs
H Ministry of Housing and Urban Development
Ministry of Planning and Economic Development
_ Ministry of External Economic Co-operation
J Ministry ot Natural Resource Development and Environment Protection J Ministry of Justice
_ Ministry of Agriculture
- Ministry of Culture & Sports
J Addis Ababa University
the Central Statistical Authority
_ Family Guidance Association of Ethiopia and other NGOs
TAMS-VLG Bam-Akobo River Basin Integrated Dnelopmcnt Muter Plan
3A-6ANNEX 3 A POPULATION
SOCIO-ECONOMICS
3 . ANALYSIS
3.1 Population Characteristics
3.1.1 Preliminary comments
Over the last 10 years, the definition of administrative units  (especially, the regions  and awTajas. and even a few weredas  and/or fanners  associations) have changed. Thus  it is difficult to make any  comparison between past and present data Sometimes, during recent years, the changes  in the definition lead to using the same name for different units  for example, lllubabor has been successively
n a "region" in 1984. when the population census was organised; its population was
907.375 persons.
□    an  "administrative  region"  the  boundaries  of  which  are  not  well  defined  according  to the   Ministry   of   Health   immunisation   coverage   report   for   1*   quarter   1995,   the corresponding 1995 population estimate would be 1,149,046.
□    a  "zone”,  intermediary  unit  between  a  wereda  and  a  region  according  to  the  latest estimates  issued  from  the  cartographic  preparation  of  the  1994  population  census,  the corresponding population would be 326.507 persons
The use of the 1984 census results and as demographic basis for the planning work obliges us to make geographical adjustments  That is  why  the "old regions", which do not correspond anymore to an existing administrative unit, are used in several cases, in fact, when the 3 names of lllubabor. Kefia, Wellega are used together, this means that the names refer to the "old definition', i e. that prevailing in 1984.
The Project Area
The Project Area corresponds to the catchment area of the Baro-Akobo River Basin, which includes  an Upper Basin already  defined by  another study  carried out by  ARDCO- GEOSERV in 1994, and a Lower Basin defined and surveyed by a Russian Team
In order to be able to calculate the population of the Project Area, and to be as accurate as possible, the boundaries of the various weredas belonging (partially or totally) to the Project Area have been digitised on a GJS (see Volume IV Map Album page 2) Then it was possible to give an accurate geographical definition of the Project Area, i e a list of weredas and for each of them the area and the percentage of its area within the Project .Area Furthermore, knowing the exact location of their boundaries allows their present population to be estimated
1
accurately, considering only the Enumeration Areas  within the Project Area
1  The Census Cartography consists in splitting all the national territory in small reas called Enumeration Areas CEA), w rich correspond lo the work of an enumerator dunng the census penod of data collection m the field. 1 e areas where lnr apprDximareh 1000 persons (a little more in towns. a little less in rural areas j
■  The  aim  of  tris  work is to  allow  a  good  orgmusanon  of the  field  work  each  enumerator wdl  be  risen  the rcsponabilit) of the census m an EA and, for that, be will receive a map of his  2onc  and a list of localities tor districts, in urban areas) with an csumaie of the corresponding population
TAMS-ULG Baro- Akobo River Baiin integrated Development Master PtmSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
The   Baro-Akobo   River   Basin,   as   defined   for   the   Project,   has   an   area   ot   75,912   kmJ,   as detailed in Table 1
Table 1              1993 Population Numbers by ’’Present Region" within The Project Area
Region
POPULATION
AREA
No.
Name
Numbers
%
Sex
ratio
km2
%
Density (a)
4
Oromiya
1 296 237
59.8
96.3
23 770
31.3
54.5
6
.Asosa
239 144
11.0
98.7
7412
9.8
32.3
II
Southern
451 498
20.8
98,6
18 668
24 6
24.2
12
Gambela
182 776
8.4
105 1
26 062
34 3
7.0
Total
2 169 656
100.0
97.8
75 912
100.0
28.6
l a] ToUj deairtv (urhys’ntfil poputsSion), rn perws fcjzr
3.1.2 Popu lation Size
Present population
In November 19931. according to census  cartography  estimates, the Project .Area population was  a little less  than 2 2 million people Detailed information about number of households, population, sex  ratios  and densities  by  type of residence and wereda is  presented in Tabic  1 of the Appendix
Assessment of the data
To a certain extent, the above mentioned figure is underestimated for various reasons:
•      census  cariocraphy,  which  includes  a  rapid  pre  census,  is  accurate  to  plus  or  minus  10  to 15 %;
•       the  Project  Area  is  an  area  were  many  refugees  used  to  come,  particularly  in  the  Lower Basin  (Gambela  region  and  Gura  Farda  in  Southern  Region},  either  as  "UNHCR  registered refugees",   or   as   ordinary   in-migrants   In   January   1996,   there   were   more   than   60,000 Sudanese  refugees  in  the  Lower  Basin,  in  the  camps  of  Bonga,  Fugntdo  and  Dimma  But as  a  matter  of  fact,  part  of  the  real  number  of  refugees  has  been  considered  as  residing  in
Ethiopia  and  then  they  have  been  pre-censused  in  1993:  the  sex  ratios  are  so  high  (105
males  per 100 females  on average in Gambela Region, but 108 in the 4 weredas  more affected by  the phenomenon Gambela, Itang, Jikawo and Gura Farda), that the most probable explanation is  the onset of strong and specific  in-migration flows  towards  the Lower Basin
•       it  is  occasionally  said  that  10  to  20,000  Fellatas.  pastoralists  who  are  projected  to  have come  30  years  ago  from  Nigeria  and  settled  in  the  Project  Area,  would  still  be  living  in remote  areas  of  Gambela  region,  without  being  censused.  If  this  is  true,  the  demographic pressure on Gambela region would be 10% higher.
( i Reference date for carugraphic work     in the area
TAMS-ULG Ban>Akobu River Ba&in Integrated Development Master Plan
3A-8SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASP
E(?|
XX Of households amounted to a hole less than '/. million: 413.000 in rural areas 
X m urban areas The average size of a household was htgher tn rura areas than in Ulbl„
areas 4 8 persons against 4.2. Bigger household size was found in Gambela Region, Stnal[ej
size in Southern Region 5.3 persons against 4 2.
Major regional differences in densities
The  Lower  Basin  has  very  low  densities  (9%  of  the  population  living  on  about  42%  of  the territory) and the Upper Basin much higher densities.
•    Oromiya, i.e the central part of the Upper Basin, accommodates 60% of the population
living within the Project Area, but on a small territory which accounts only for 31% of the
total?as a consequence, the highest density is found here with 55 people per km , which is fairly high compared to the agricultural capacities of most of the land.
•     in Gambela (the major part the Lower Basin), a small population (7% of the total) lives in a large territory (34% of the total) So the density is very low, i e 7 persons per km2  But since  a  major  part  of  this  territory  cannot  be  used  for  agriculture,  a  "net"  density excluding  useless  lands  would  still  be  low:  having  the  same  density  as  that  of  Oroma would mean that 87% of the land in Gambela (i.e 22,700 km ) could not be used for food
2
2
production
• in Asosa and Southern regions, the relation between population numbers and the areas where they live is more balanced the densities are respectively 32 and 24 people per knr And  if  only  the  part  of  the  Southern  region  in  the  Upper  Basin  were  considered  (i  e without  Gura  Farda  where  only  7,810  inhabitants  live  in  5,873  km2),  the  corresponding
2
density would be 35 people per km .
Major geographical differences in densities
Differences are easily identified when analysing densities on a larger scale map. The 1993 total population density  map (see Volume IV Map Album page 6) gives  a 5 class cartographic description of densities for each wereda Three zones are clearly evident
2
•     a zone of low densities (less than 15 persons per km ) which corresponds more or less accurately  to  the  Lower  Basin,  including  Gambela  region  and  the  northern  part  of  the Southern region to Gesha and Shasha weredas
•     a zone of medium densities (from 15 to 60 people per km ), which corresponds to the western  fringe  of  the  Upper  basin,  from  North  including  Asosa  region  to  the  Centre including a major part of Oromia (west Kclem zone. Gore zone, north Shekicho zone) towards  Sigmo  wereda  to  the  north  and  Gesha  Timshu  wereda  to  the  south  This intermediary agro-ecologtcal area corresponds to a mode of soil occupation which is also intermediary  between  low  densities  of  the  Lower  Basin,  and  high  densities  which are found in the Lpper Basin
2 zones of high densmes (more than 65 persons per km ) both located in the Upper Basin one to the north-east (mainly east Kelem zone. Gimbi zone, Illubabor zone and east Buno Bedele zone), and the other to the south-east (around the towns of Tepi in Yeki wereda and Mizan Teferi in Temanja Yazhi wereda)
2
2
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Waiter PhuSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPU LATION ASPECTS
Table 2 Population numbers by "1984 region" in 1993
Part of the "1984 region” in the Project Area
PROJECT
niubibor
KcfTa
Wellrga
AREA
1984
rural
628 551
287 906
713 732
1 630 189
urban
48 912
13 463
44 469
106 844
Total
677 463
301 369
758 201
I 737 033
Urban rate (%)
72
45
5.9
6.2
sex ratio, rural
98 8
' 103.8
101.3
100 9
sex ratio, urban
94.8
90 3
95 4
94 4
-—---- ------------------ --------- rural
1993
827 627
314 437
852 547
1 994 610
urban
88 035
20 608
66 403
175 046
Total
915 662
335 044
918 950
2 169 656
Urban rate (%)
9.6
62
72
81
sex ratio: rural
98.2
98.8
96.9
97.6
sex ratio urban
95.6
95.5
964
95.9
Population Growth Rate 1984-93 (% per annum 1
Rural
2.94
0,93
1.89
2 15
Urban
6 38
4.58
4.31
5 33
Total (rural + urban «
3.22
1 12
204
2.37
Natural incr, {al
2.51
2.71
3.02
2 81
(l)               Aifflampti&fi         by Ehc J98M pcniui AfllJyiU for earh “ i PM rcjgn+^n" carpudered 9LX i wyfaole Since h has 3CCD decided not La
ukc acc
wait af raignii cart., thcw rales were used an if they corresp
onded m ihe sarEc uhk tc MCurai
nnd to net growth
The
reality'  depicted  by  the  map  gives  an
interesting,  but  fairly  crude,
idea  of  demographic 
press
ure  on  the  land,  and  so  of  the  corresp
onding  settlement  possibilities 
in  the  area  A  crude
idea,
because  the  areas  used  for  calculating
densities  are  global,  whatever
the use of  die  land
and
its   potential,   so   the   agro-ecological
possibilities   for   supporting
population   are   not
considered.  .And  this  way  of  doing  would  be  the  only  one  which  could  make  possible  an analysis of the situation in terms of Population Support Capacity3 (PSC).
The  PSC  model  is  explained  in  Annex  2  A  sections  4  2  and  4  3  and  mapped  in  Volume  IV page 14.
3. J.3 Past evolution: 1984-1993
Global evolution
Detailed information about population numbers  and densities  in 1984 and 1994 number of resettled people and average yearly  growth rates, by  type of residence and wereda in the Project .Area is presented in Table 2 of the Appendix.
In order to calculate yearly growth rates, a total duration of 9 5 years has been considered i e from May 1984 to November 1993.
' If it is gmrrilly considered ihai erosion takes place on culthatcd land, it is also true that one of the nwior
sources of land degradation is livestock density and poor mam gement of grazing land '
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Baxin Integrated Development Manner Ph^ “ ------------------------
3A -10ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPEcts
SOCIO-ECONOMICS
A population explosion affected the Project Area in 1985 and probably th
transformed the living conditions which had been prevailing before. About 600 OOO^^' arrived suddenly in the Project Area in 1985 (which corresponds to a population in Pe°p,e 35% in only one year), and most of them left the area in 1991, as illustrated in
During 6 years, demographic pressure was overwhelmingly higher than before 1 because of the pressure of numbers, but also because many "temporary settlers" did much about the land (and about the necessity of taking care of it in order not to dest the same way as people who were bom there
:i!
Figure 1         1984-1995 Evolution of Gatnbela's Population, by Type of Resident
Even if some precautions in order to cope with this acute problem had been taken by public authorities, the consequences are ven serious and may be irreversible The example of Gambela region where the intensity of the phenomenon was biggest is verv interesting between 1985 and 1990. usual residents were less than 20% of the total population in the area , because ot the mass presence of refugees and resettled households .And even if most immigrants returned home, its population (considered as usual) has doubled in less than 10 years Development planning with such population fluctuations is clearly very difficult
The refugees
The refugee population in the Project Area, over the last 10 years, has fluctuated from 1995 when 300,000 Sudanese arrived (but at the same time % million Ethiopians coming mainlv from Nonhem regions  of Ethiopia to escape the war with Eritrea, fled to Sudan) to approximately 400,000 in the early 1990’s Then in May 1991, following the downfall of the former regime, over 360,000 at hang and Fugnido fled their camps and returned back home to Southern Sudan The number of remaining refugees  increased again slowlv  but continuously, from 20,000 in 1991 to about 61.000 in January- 1996 Most of them fled in
4   Even if the figures are viewed as rough estimates rather than as accurate data, the major conclusion will not change, so huge were the gaps betuten numbers of indigenous people and new comers
TAMS-ULG Biro-Ako bo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan 3A-11
'SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
1992  (mainly  Uduks)  and
1993
(mainly  Nilotics);  the  causes  were  critical  food  shortage  due
to drought and crop failures, civil war and inter-ethnic tensions in South Sudan
Al present, the refugees are accommodated in 3 camps:
Bonga,  38  kilometres  north  east  of  Gambela  on  the  Gambela-  Addis  road,  with  16.455 people,  most  of  them  are  Uduks  -  a  group  almost  devastated  to  the  point  of  extinction by  Sudan's  civil  war  For  them,  there  is  a  strong  need  for  land,  as  they  are  mainly sedentary' farmers.
~ Fugnido, 50 km from Abobo, with 34,418 refugees, the majority  of which belong to Nuer, Dinka and Shilluk  ethnic  groups  which arc  much more cattle breeders  than farmers  According to UNHCR and local authorities, the numher of refugees  in this camp is over estimated by ai least 15,000 persons
C  Dimma,  near  by  the  southern  boundary  of  Gura  Farda  wereda,  with  10.547  refugees, the majority of which being of Nilotic ethnic groups
The total number of refugees  is  considered to be not less  than 45,000 According to a UNHCR note dated October 25th 1995, "without peace in sight, it is  highly  unlikely  that Sudanese refugees  will repatriate in 1996 However, no major refugee influx  has  occurred from Sudan" In other words, UNHCR thinks  that refugees  will be staying in Ethiopia for a few years
To what extent were the refugees  taken into account by  the census  cartographic  preparatory work? According to CSA, they  have been included in the pre-census  operations; indeed, the high sex  ratios  observed in Gambela Region (105 males  for 100 females) may  be the consequence of this  But, on the other hand, how' could Gambela Wereda accommodate 16,000 refugees  when its  total rural population is  projected to be I 1.982? And the same question remains  for Gog & J  or Wereda, whose population was  14,134 in 1993, and where Fugnido camp is located Therefore, it can be assumed that pan of the refugees have not been pre-censured (those living in camps, and officially  registered), and part have been considered as part of the population of Ethiopia and hence censured (those Living in villages ar towns)
As  a conclusion, the influx  of refugees  has  certainly  accounted for part of the population growih in Gambela Region But most of them have probably  not been included in the census cartography  counts. Accordingly, the demographic  pressure on land and environment is probably  far higher than the census  numbers  would indicate, especially  when considering that Gambela Region’s  population is  about 180,000 and the additional refugee population close to 60.000,
The resettled people
"Subsequent to rhe 1984-85 drought and consequent famine, which affected especially  the nonhem parts  of the country', a major resettlement programme has  been undertaken The government was  involved in moving over half a million people who had no prospect of being self-sufficient in their old habitat w hich mainly  consists  of degraded lands  After resettlement the government supported the settler families  by  providing them with food, health care, clothing, etc until they were able to support themselves The government also built basic
TAMS-ULG Ban?-A kobo River Basin [ntcgmicd Development MasterPlanSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASP ^
E
oich as schools, health stations, roads a*
.
communit}' infrastructures
X places, flour mills, etc vvu faci*li—■ tate—d jsupply oFf prvtotqahbllpewater systems, ma P
and
,
*
.. (65
o /o) Shoa (19%) and Tigray (16%), as shown *
n. resettledmanJyXic coXstan of new comers, which is completely diff^
Table
}                  MU people
*"* * e,hn" 8r°"P a“d ”M
Ethnk
Total "1984 region"
eroup
lllubabor
Letta
WeUq
Numbers
%
Numbers
%
Numbers
%
Amhm
55 800
473
10 737
52.3
86 892
806
Tigrcwav
35 627
30 2
5 235
25.5
9 810
9.1
Orcr.o
7 078
6.0
3 798
18 5
7 439
69
Kembali
12623
10.7
595
29
323
0 3
Hidiya
4 W0
39
2
c
216
0.2
Age*
354
0.3
20
0.1
970
09
Others
888
1.6
143
0.7
2 157
20
Total
117 970
100,0
20 530
1000
107 807
100,0
Scwce Iams-L’Lu etfimales hxsed on            on c**nu of popvlofion &d hotair.# and on air** of de^ograp^-’ cMnjw tn thr rwttltmenl a/WM daU.
Among the distinct resettlement schemes under which peasants made their new homes - "large scale"* 6, "low cost" and "integrated" the most significant were the first two, with 45% and 50 % of the resettles respectively. The two biggest large scale settlements were Asosa with 47,467 people (14,143 households) and 18,808 hectares of land, then Gambela with 44,664 people (11,234 households) and 15.600 ha of land
The sudden surge of so much population corresponded to an 11% increase in about one year, which is equivalent to 4 years of natural increase And this movement was not evenly spread out all over lhe basin
□   the more affected areas were Gambela region where the arrival of resettlcrs involved, on average, a 54% population increase, Gura Farda wereda (94%) Asosa wereda (76%), Dalie Wabera (43%), Hawa Gelan (36%), etc
□   several areas in the basin were not affected at all in the northern pan of the basin (Kurmuk, Biegi and Gidami), in the north west (Yubdo), the central part (Mono SeJe. Masha, Anderacha and Gesha Tilku), and all the southern part (the 7 weredas included in Maji Zone)
Source Report on census of population and housing and on survey of demograohtr f resettlement areas. CSA. Addis Ababa. February 1991. 
*
6   I-argc scale settlements were more or less similar to state farms, highly mechanised, with a collective svs m
of production Conversely integrated settlements oonsisted in a placement within existing TA.MS-ULG Baru-Akobo Rh er Basin Integrated Doetoptnent Master Plan 
xJtria^?nC
—SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A population aspects
/or rural devtiQprrx nr, Zed Books. 1990.
Most of these "resettled households" were families; but many  of them were incomplete, a few members  renaming in the village of origin This  explains  the relatively  small resettlement household size, and also the slight over-representation of men the global sex  ratio was  ■ . 109 in lllubabor. and Wellega, 100 in Kefla h 1988, according to a Survey  of demographic changes  tn the resettlement areas, more than 80 % of them declared they  would prefer to go back to the region they had left, and in 3 years, already 15 % of the resettled households had left the area where they had been resettled.
It is  generally  considered that the bulk  of them left their resettlement area, although some died because of diseases they were not used lo But to what extent "* It is difficult to conclude with accurate figures, even if the principle cannot be denied.
Most  analysts  of  resettlement  policy  give  a  fairly  negative  description  of  this  process  ("slow pace, high cost and low productivity"):
"Since soil fertility  is  a major factor in improving agricultural production in Ethiopia, the impact of large scale settlemenls  [mainly  in Asosa and Gambela] on the land has  been devastating This  indiscriminate clearing of dense forest with bulldozers  and other heavy equipment has removed the top soil to within 10 to 20 centimetres, a part of the soil of which is  crucial in maintaining fertility  This  top soil is  easily  detachable and is  irreversibly  lost due to rain or wind erosion Some extension agents  assert that the relative decline in yields  in Asosa after the initial year may be related to the removal of a large amount of top soil in the first year clearing of the forest cultivation"
"Some resettlement areas, such as  Gura Farda [ J  and several villages  within settlement complexes  had to be abandoned after considerable labour and capital inputs, owing to poor soils, water shortages  and water-logging In the lowlands, settlements  displaced minority groups  practising ecologically  sustainable modes  of subsistence f. ] in the highlands, where population density  was  greater, antagonism and clashes  with the local population occurred; disputes have been reported over land use and demarcation"*
3. L 4 Geographical Differences in Growth Kales
Results of these various events are easily identified on a larger scale map, when analysing the population growth rates  by  wereda The map « Population growth by  wereda from 1984 to 1993 » (see Volume IV, Map Album page 7) gives  a cartographic  description of these rates (related to the total population) for each wereda Globally, the Upper Basin experienced low growth rates, and in several cases, negative rates; conversely, very high rates are found in all the weredas of the Lower Basin
Three categories of weredas may be identified
1   weredas  which  experienced  a  net  loss  of  population,  in  other  words,  whose  popular  ion decreased  between  1984  and  1993.  This  happened  in  13  w-eredas,  all  of  them  beino located in the Upper Basin, in Gimbi, Gore, Mocha and Maji zones Except in Gore
7 Q™
Source: Alemneh Dejenc. "Peasanis. emmonment, reseiUetncnt". in S Pausewang and aid Ethiopia QDtion.
'
*
^Source: Alula PankliursL 'Resettlement: policy and practice', in Ethiopia. Options fornrrt>i d^pment. Dp.
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated DcvdopmeiK Master Plan
3A-14SOCIOECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
RURAL
l/Wcf css
1984
iURBAN
1 jl- cf each
1984
Figure 2 Population Pyramids Tor 1985
Present situation
The age and sex distribution proposed by the 1990 National Family ami Fertility Survey is shown in Table 4 The extent to which these data can be used regionally is open to question, when they are affected by the weight of urban areas (even if it is only 15%, including Addis Ababa and big towns), and also by the effects of war, drought and famine which was present in most regions in the country during so many years, except the Project .Area
Table 4 National age and sex distribution by type of residence, in 1990
National
1990 Rural
1990 Urban
Males       Females
Males      Females
0 - 9 years 35 9 349 10-24 30.3 29.6
25-59 26 8 30 0 60 + 7.0 5.5
Total             100.0            100.0
32.7 286
342 35.9
27.0 28,9
6.1               6.6
100.0 100.0
Source-Nowt jFtfmi (y
£ SwwjA ro.-su
As a conclusion, it has been decided to derive from the three regional 1984 age and sex distributions the age and sex distribution of the Project .Area.
Recent evolution
Sex ratios have not changed much over the last 10 years, in spite of the major events which occurred in the area. In rural areas, the percentage of men decreased slightly indicating
TAMS-ITLG Baro-ALotw) River Basin Integrated Devdopmcni Master PlanSOCTO-ECONOMTCS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
probably  the intensification of an out-migration flow from 101 males  per 100 iemates, to 98 The difference between rural and urban areas  did not decrease much, higher sex  ratios  in rural areas (98 against 94 in 1993) may be explained by several behaviours:
propensity to out-migratc may be stronger in urban areas, than in rural areas,
Z  specific  out-migration  profiles  may  exist  the  bulk  of  out-migrants  (from  rural  or  urban areas) being females. This existed over the Derg years, when there was the risk of being enrolled,  in  the  army  (which  was  much  higher  m  towns,  than  in  the  countryside)  In  fact, many analysts point out this phenomenon, but the 1984 census results did not
Age and sex  distribution according to the A'a/forao/ Population Policy  of Ethiopia document . "since the level of fertility  has  noi changed at all,, there is  no reason to think  that there has been any change in the age composition of the population since then"
J. Z. 6 Ethnic groups
Not  much  is  known  about  the  major  ethnic  groups  in  the  Project  Area  The  only  available information relates to year 1984, and to the regions which were existing in that time
□  in  rural  areas.  Oromos  are  the  major  group  from  90%  of  the  population  in  Wollega,  to 50% in KefTa. The other groups are marginal except in KefTa where KefTa and Do mete groups  have  significant  numbers.  17%  and  11%  Bui  Keffe  Region  accounts  only  for 18% in the Project Area
L   in   urban   areas,   Oromos   are   the   major   group   (55%   on   average),   but   in   smaller proportions  from  73%  in  Wollega  to  30%  in  KefTa  Other  groups  are  important,  such as Amharas (24%) and to lower extent Gurages (particularly in lllubabor and KefTa).
The ethnic  unbalance observed in 1984 in the Project Area may  have partially  (and probably slightly) changed because of the arrival many  in-migrants  belonging to specific  ethnic groups. Amharas  for resettled people and Nilotic  tribes  for refugees  But since the ethnic composition of out-migration flows  is  not knowrL, it is  difficult to estimate the real consequences on the ethnic composition of the population within the Project Area
Table 5              % Share Of Major Ethnic Groups In Each "1984 Region", In 1984
Ethnic
Rural
tlRBAix
Group
lllubabor
KefTa
Welles
JLlubabor
Keffa
Wdlegi
Agnuak
2.3
E
E
3,7
£
E
Ambani
3.S
2,6
3,3
28.7
22 y
19.6
Domett
1£
1L0
E
6
V
E
Gurage
— 0.2
0,3
£
7,2
12,2
2.8
Mocha
4,9
0.2
E
2.6
12.2
£
Keffa
3,2
17,0
E
2,9
0,2
E
Oromo
78.2
50,1
90.1
47 4
29.5
72.6
Tigre2\
0,2
0.1
0.1
2,3
2,5
17
Others
6.7
18 5
6.5
4.7
10.8
Total Rural
,
33 q
100.0
LOO.O
100.0
100,0
100.0
100.0
Office of the Pnrnc Minister, The Transitional C-cft eminent of Ethiopia - Addis Ababa. April 1993.
TAMS-L LG BarU’Akobo River Basin Integrated De%dopment Master Plan
JA - 17SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPects
In  other  respects,  it  is  well  known  that  there  are  significant  differences  in  fertility  between Oromos and Amharas. the former having a higher fertility.
3.1.7 Religion
Not much is  known about the major religious  groups  in the Project Area The only  available information relates  to year 1984, and to the regions  which were existing in that time. There seems  to be major differences  between rural areas  (mainly  Muslim) and urban areas  (mainly Christian)
J  in  rural  areas,  Muslims  are  the  major  group  in  Illubabor  and  Keffa  respectively  51% and   47%   Conversely,   they   are   few   (13%)   in   Wollega,   where   Christians   are   85% Traditional religions are marginal: from 11% in Keffa to 1 .6% in Wollega
□  in  urban  areas,  Christians  are  the  major  group  in  the  3  regions  from  85%  in  Wfollega to  68%  in  Keffa  Muslims  are  the  second  group,  from  31%  in  Keffa  to  14%  in  Wollega Traditional religions are marginal
Table 6              % Share Of Major Religions In Each "1984 Region", In 1984
Religion                Elubabor
KrfTa                  Wellega
• Rural
Cbnitian Muslim Other Total Rural
44.7
47 4
79
100,0
38.1
50.5
114
100.0
85.1
133
1.6
100.0
• Urban
Christian
73.0
68.2
85 3
Muslim
23.6
30.6
14 1
Other
3,4
1.2
0.6
Total Rural
100.0
100.0
J 00.0
SourEtt PapulMtM                            MTUi 1984. Anatyteai nporu (Jllutwtor. KxSil Wdlep Rejiam). op. dt.
In  other  respects,  it  is  well  known  that  there  are  significant  differences  in  fertility  between Christians and Muslims, the latter having a higher fertility
3.2 Urbanisation
3.2.1    Definitions
~ in the 1984 population and housing census an urban centre was defined as "a locality with 2000 or more inhabitants. Moreover, all administrative capitals  (regional, awraja and wereda) and localities in which urban dweller's associations were established were considered as urban centres, irrespective of the population size”
TAMS-LLG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Develop meat Master Plan
3A-IBSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
the   1992   Ethiopia   Statistical   Abstract   gave   the  following   definition   "urban  areas   refer
to  all  localities  in  which  urban  dwellers  associations  have  been  formed.  A  list  of  297
major  towns  that
have  been
accorded
urban  status  by  the
M
inistry 
of  Works  and
Urban
Development"..
3.2.2
Pas* Situation (in 1984)
The
"urban  population  '  in  the  Pr
oject  Area
was  106,84*1  people.
It  repr
esented
6.2%
of  the
total
population,  which  is  a  ven
low  urba
n  rate,  all  the  more
since
30%  of
the
"urban
popu
1
lation' lived in towns  the po
pulation  of
which  was  less  than
2,000.
In  that
lime,
among
the  14 towns bigger than 2.000, there was not one of substantial size or with reasonable level pf modem facilities'
□     7  "towns11   ranged  from  2.000  to  3,000.  the  total  population  of  which  accounted  for 15% of the total urban population,
□    4  ranged  from  3.000  to  less  than  5.000  inhabitants  Asosa,  Gambela.  Mugi  and  Tepi, J 1 from 5,000 to less than 10,000: Mizan Teferi;
Z2  2  towns  had  more  than  10,000  people  Metu  and  Dembt  Dolo,  but  no  one  had  a population larger than 15,000
One must keep in mind that most of the major "bigger towns" in Western Ethiopia are located outside the Project Area, but not far from its  eastern boundary  among others, from south to north, Jimma (60,200 inhabitants  in 1984), Agaro (18.400), Bedele (7,200), Gimbi (14,300), Nekemte (28,700).
3.2.3   Present situation
In November 1993, the urban population in the Project Area was  175,046 It represented 8.1% of the total population, w hich is  very  low the Project Area remained a rural area, and no large town has  emerged Furthermore 13% of the "urban population" live in towns  the population of which was  less  than 2.000 Now the number of towns  with a population bigger than 2,000 is 24
L   14   towns   ranging   from   2,000   to   less   than   5,000,   the   total   population   of   which accounted for 27% of the total urban population;
—  3 towns  ranging from 5.000 to less  than 10,000 Gore, Tepi and Mizan Teferi Gore's population increased very  slowly  because of very  strong net-out-nugration. conversely, Tepi's population was doubled
J  4  towns  had  more  a  population  bigger  than  10,000  Asosa  with  10,500,  the  3  other ones  (Metu,  Gambela  and  Dembi  Dolo)  having  about  18,000  people  each  But  there  is no  town  bigger  than  20,000  Higher  annual  growth  rates  were  found  in  Gambela  (16  %) which  may  correspond  to  settlement  of  households  previously  resettled  in  the  area  as well  as  to  the  influence  of  activities  related  to  refugees,  and  Asosa  (11%)  which  is probably   strongly   related   to   immigration   of   households   previously   resettled   in   rural areas.
The evolution of the urban population is shown in Table 7
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Inlegrlied Development Master PlanSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
Table 7
Evolution Of The Urban Population In The Project Area
Town                1984 Region
1984                     1993
__________
1984-93
Growth
Other source
for 1993
• Bigger lowni
Aso» WeUega Mug: WelkgB Dtebi Doio Weller
4 049
10 449                        1049
4 452 4 523 0.1?
14 078 18 783 3.08
10 004 (*)         , a (48 (h)
Mrtu
Gon
Tcpi
JEubabor
niubnbor
□lubabor
12 920
18 304                         3 73
|     6 737                      7 633                          1.32
4 452
9466                          8 26
1-------
Nb/jwi Tefen        Keth XTofa/ Rigger Trnrrts
Gumbela             Zlubnbcr
4 267                     17 W
158
24 293 (b)
8 414 (bj
8 414 (b>
17 194 (c)
5 767                     9 779
5.71
13 350 (d)
56 722                    96 Bl                          5 71
Smaller taw ot                                 50 122
r
u
(li
Total Ur>a>
106 844
78 925
175D445
533
Lwtlopmtftr Pl** - FruaJ report fcwcurzvr lam/nan^ - NUPl, July 1 Wi
th j Sturce AlDCO/GEOSDLV Sudy «i Lht Upper 3aiir.
(c) Source Gam*<LJ Dne/tJpiwnr PIqk - Ftnui report 'eweadrw jkffijwanj - NUM. Vfirch 1995
(di.  Source  FraijbJ?r)'7VrkJ"vr.nry  Deitj/t  Rrpwf  in  "12  Townt  water  inri  wulatiem  «udy“  -  CKBBSHLTLECA, September 1995
The 1984-1993 evolution has been fairly slow, on average, 5 3% per year; were this rate to
remain unchanged in the future, the period for the population to double would be 13 years But, this rate is higher than the rate of natural increase (assumed to be approximately 3.4%
per year over the last ten year penod), which means that 1,9% of the increase has come from
in-migration rural-urban migration of course, but also influx of non registered Sudanese refugees (for example in Gambela) and resettled households leaving hard conditions of life in rural areas to expected better conditions in town (for example, in Asosa or Gambela)
3.2.4    Future Evolution
Existing  studies  proposed  population  forecasts  for  3  towns  Asosa.  Gambela  and  Mizan Teferi:
Lj Asosa if the population growth rate has been high over the past 15 years, and is now decreasing, this  is  partly  due to rural settlement programmes  which have been implemented in the area between the years  1979 to 1985; for example, according to Ethiopian Social and Relief Fund, at least 5,000 returnees can be found in Asosa zone
L  The  Urban  Master  Plan  took  account  of  the  existence  of  specific  activities  in  the surrounding areas (mainly, gold - primary and placer -, marble and construction works), of bad climatic conditions such as tsetse fly prevalence in rural areas particularly during rainy season, and of the presence of a transport hub of Bambasi not far from Asosa
TAMS-ULG Biro-Akiobci Rher Basin lntegrakd Dodopment Master PlanSOCIO ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
fable 8 Assumptions about Future Evolution of the Population of Major Towns
Town                 Target date      Population        Aver. PGR         Source (%)
Asosa i 2005 (c) 17 339 5.10
Gambela 2005 (c) 32 758 5.77
(a)
Mizan Tefcri | 2017 (d)             68 500               7.37
(C)
(aj Source .-Jjokt Development plan - Final report fcttcvUve summary) . op. cit
(b) Source Giomfrr/tf Dor fopnenf f’/mr - Final
/ewprurn.v 
- op cit
^c)  Source  Feasibitfy  Preliminary1   Dengr,  Report  IE  "12  Towns  v-alcr  and  san^LBtion 
study '-op.cit
Urban planners  proposed an important decrease in the densities: the area of the town is projected to increase very  quickly, from 352 ha in 1994 to 900 ha in 2005. this  would involve a decrease in the crude density from 28 to 19 inhabitants per ha The housing areas would be multiplied by  2.7 (from 134 to 360 ha), and the corresponding net densities be respectively  75 and 48
Gambela the population growth rate has  been high over the past 15 years, because of very  important in-migration, accordingly  Gambela is  one of the very  few towns  in Ethiopia where males outnumber females, with a sex ratio of 112.
j  According  to  a  population  and  housing  census  conducted  by  the  Bureau  of  Works  and Urban  Development  of  gambela  Region,  the  most  numerous  ethnic  groups  represented in  the  town  are  Anuaks  (38%),  Oromos  (30%),  Amharas  (10%),  Tigreans  (8  4%)  and Kembatas (5 4%),
□  Urban  planners  proposed  a  decrease  in  the  densities  the  area  of  the  town  is  projected to  increase  from  578  ha  in  1994  to  1200  ha  in  2005;  this  would  involve  a  slight decrease in Lhe crude density from 30 to 27 inhabitants per ha The housing areas would be   multiplied   by   3   (from   144   to   430   ha),   and   the   corresponding   net   densities   be respectively 120 and 76
Our  assumptions  consisted  in  considering  separately  the  evolution  of  the  population  of  the  8 bigger towns, and the rest of the "other urban areas" (smaller rownsj
Bigger towns  it is  obvious  that Gambela and Asosa past population growth was  partially  due to external events  which probably  will not occur again in the future But this  does  not mean that their growth will be as  low as  the other towns  of the area In fact, it is  considered 2 groups of towns:
!_ towns  with net m-migranon, i.e where the number of new settlers  will remain higher than the number of people who leave the town in order to settle in a bigger town, either close by  the Project Area (such as  Jimma. Agaro, Bedele, Gimbi, Nekempte, etc  ) or further (such as Addis Ababa)
0  Gambela,  as  the  capital  city  of  the  Lower  Basin,  will  have  the  higher  growth  rate  in the  Project  Area,  but  the  rate  will  gradually  decrease  because  of  the  size  of  the town    and    probable    problems    involved    by    its    development    (public    facilities, employment, etc);
TAMS-L’LG BaroAkobo River Basin Integrated De^rlopmeot Master PlanSOC1O-ECON 0M1CS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECT'S
0 Asosa, as the capital city- of Region 6 and because of its fairly small size, will have a reasonably high growth rate al! over the next 40 years (in fact, the same development as most of the southern town in the Project .Area, viz: Mizan Teferi)
0 Tepi, as well as the neighbouring town of Mizan Teferi, will experience a hieh growth rate over the next 40 years,
Table 9             TAMS-ULG Assumptions about Growth Rates of the Urban Population {average % per year over the period)
Town
• Bigger towns
Crambe h Aiasa
Tepi
Mizzd Teten
1935-95 
1995-2000            2000-2015             20IS2035
15 88                      759
14.6
8.26
6.41
3.73
4.95
590
4 84
6.05
4.84
5.70
4.75
2S7                      250
4 53
4.34
5.11
4.26
1 93
I>emb: Dole
3 0B
261
2.31
t -to 
I 78
Gore
1 86
103
L21
1 18
Mugt
0.17
0 68
0.84
0 65
Tt)!d! bigger ftnmr
4.15
423
412
3.72
■ Smaller towns
4 63
434
124
3.24
fluid URIAS
693
4.28
3.72
3.53
* Dembidolo and Metus  population growth will be slightly  higher than the natural increase, as  if the number of in-migrants  were fairly  equal to the number of out- migrants  These towns  may  be considered as  stop over towns  on the wav  to bigger cities
I   towns   with   net   out-migration,   i   e   where   the  number   of   out-migrants  will   be  higher than  the  number  of  new  comers,  which  means  that  their  growth  rate  will  be  less  than their  natural  increase  the  2  towns  are  located  in  the  central  part  of  the  Upper  Basin. Mugi  being  close  to  Dembidolo  and  Gore  near  Metu  Ln  both  cases,  the  urban attraction will  be  exerted  by  the  neighbouring  cities,  not  only  on  rural  populations  but  also  on their  own  population  That  is  why  they  will  lose  a  major  part  of  their  natural  increase, but their population will go on growing, but at a low speed
Smaller towns the population and corresponding growth rates were calculated as the
difference between the global projected urban population and the population of bigger towns 
The same rate was applied in each wereda.
But  in  3  weredas  without  any  urban  population  in  1993,  Meko,  Setema  and  Chora,  it  was considered that, from year 2D00, part of their population would be classified as urban to
TAMS-ULG Barer-Akobo River Bahn Integrated Oerel op mem Master Plan
3A ■ 22SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
estimate  the  population  number  in  2000t   the  average  "urban  rate  in  smaller  towns’*  in  the Protect Area was applied to the rural population of the wereda.
33 Fertility
13.1 Past Situation (in 1984)
Source of data
Fertility  data relating to year 1984 which are presented below are derived from the /9S4 popidafion cewm analytical census  reports published by  the C S A tn 1990 These data are the only  existing ones  which relate to regions  of the Project Area (these regions  do not exist any more as "administrative regions")
Because ot classic  underreporting of births  by  women, especially  by  oldeT ones, the reported data needed to be adjusted using 2 different indirect techniques: Brass  P/F and Trussel multipliers Therefore, die following data are the adjusted ones
Table 10 Regional Fertility Patterns within the Project Area, By Type of Resident. In 1984
Plubabor
Keffa
Wellega
Rund         Urban
Rural          Urban
Rural           Urban
• Total Fe nil jty R air . ttuldrec per woman aged 15-49)
7J              7b0              7,6              6.75               7,6                72
■   Age dislnbution □ ( fe
IS- 1 ‘J years                  V              9,7              8,8
67                6.4               5,7
2C - 24
17.S            1.U             18.4             18.9             19,9             2DJ
25-29                               1L6           21,9             19,7             23,6             21.?              22.7
30-54
35 - 39
40-44
45-49
17.3 18,0 18.6 21.1 19^ 19,3
16.7           16,4             16,6             17J               16J               167
LDJ            7,4              10.0             8.1
9 J                9 l
r
ID J              m        7.9               4,9               7.0               6,3
Total                              190,0          190,0          J 00.0          100.0           100,0           100.0
* Crude Birth Rate
42.1
44.5
41 5
Commeftfr
L  fertility  was  very  high  in  the  Project  Area  (as  well  as  in  rural  Ethiopia),  and  the schedule  classic  fertility  is  concentrated  in  "peak  ages”  which  arc  20  to  35.  but  fertility is  fairly  high  at  younger  ages  (about  8%)  and  at  older  ages  (more  than  12%  after  40 years).
—  regional  differentials  in  fertility  seem  to  have  been  slight,  lllubabor  having  a  lower fertility than Keffa and Wei legs
TAMS-ULC Barv-Akutn) River Basin Integrated Development Muster Plan
.1SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
3.3.2 Present Situation (in 7990)
Source of data
The most recent source is The 1990 National family and Fertility Survey carried out in io and published in June 2993. by the CSA. Unfortunately, the results are presented on] gross geographical level, i.e. 3 zones Addis-Ababa, Other urban and rural This mean 3
we are compelled to assume that there are neither regional nor local difference . behaviour towards fertility.
Table 11 National Fertility Patterns. By Type of Residence, In 1984 and 1990
‘ s in the
1984
----- -----------
1990
i
1
Ruraj         Urban
Rural         Urban
Total Fertility Rate
8.0             6.3
8.0            64
A^c dialribirtion of fcrtilit  y {adjusted I
15-19 ‘•.cars
77             4.3               82             47
20-24 18.8 16,7 21.4 24.3
25-29 2Q.6 227 22.1 27.0
30-34 19.0 21 3 19 9 212
35-39
40-44
45-49
Total
165            18 1 10.4           10 5 7.0             6.4 W            100,0
15.9 12 1
81               8;
4 5              1.6
100.0 100.0
Fertility
The present fertility pattern is composed of the set of Age Specific Fertility Rales (ASFR). i.e the number of live births per women in each 5 years age group of the reproductive ages (15-49), as shown in Table 11. These reported ASFR were adjusted using 3 different indirect techniques Brass PT. Brass-.Arriaga, and Brass relational Gompertz model
The adjusted ASFR must be studied in the same time, in terms of "level" - Total Fertility Rate (TFR) - and "fertility schedule" - the % distribution of ASFR -
Z "level" ; adjusted n TFR corresponds to the average number of children a woman in reproductive age would give birth if the fertility conditions would remain the same until the end of her reproductive period
□   In rural areas, the adjusted TFR was located somewhere within the range of 7 6 to 8.3 children per woman, i.e. an average of 8.0. This level is very high, and shows that the fertility transition has not yet started, or if so it began less than 10 years ago.
0 In other urban areas, i e. urban areas except Addis-Ababa, adjusted TFR is close to 6.4 (and 4 6 for Addis-Ababa)
□    "fertility schedule" % distribution of ASFR corresponds to the relative contribution of each age group of women to the total number of births which occurred in 1990.
10 UsualJv adtustments are tequued in order to fill in the gap in the declaration of births__ TA.MSTLG 8aro-Akot>o River Basin Integrated Devefopaent Master PlanSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A P
OPULATI
ON ASPECTS
]984 -1990 Evolution of
Fertility in Rural Ar
eas
Fertility   is   high       S
a,on
the   reproductive
ag
es,
espe
cially   over   th
e   20-34
age
range   with
a
maximum  level  in  the
25-29  group  (63
%)
Bu
t,  the
concentration
is  weak,
when
compared
to
r
proportion of women currently using a method was lower 2.6% in rural areas, and 20%
in towns In this matter, there existed important ethnic and religious differentials:
0 if 14% of Amharas had ever used a method, the proportion was 5.9% among
Gurages. and 5.2% among Oromos. And the respective proportion of current users 
of a method were; 9.4% for the .Amharas and 3 4% for the Oromos 
0 if 9 3% of Christians had ever used a method, the proportion was 4 2% among
Muslims And the respective proportion of current users of a method were. 6.1%
for Christians and 2.8% for Muslims
3-3.3 Recent evolution (1984-90)
In  rural  areas,  fertility  pattern  seem  to  nave  slightly  increased  during  the  recent  years,  as show n in graph below
0eOples  who have experienced fertility  transition (i c. fall), in fact, fertility  before 20 and after 35 are fairly  high (respectively  8 and 29 %), even if they  seem to be less  than recent African standards.
There   are   ethnic   and   religious   differentials   in   fertility   The   standardised1     mean   parity varied as follows
H  the  higher  was  found  among  Sidamas  Welaytas  and  Oromos  (respectively  4.3,  3  8  and 3 6), when Amharas have only 3.3;
C   the   lower   (3.5)   would   be   found   among   Christians,   w-hen   Muslims   have   3.7   and fol i o wer s o f trad it ional rel i g ton s 3.9
Fertility determinants are, among others:
“ marriage is  universal, and begins  at early  ages: 76% of women got married before the age of 18. and the mean age at marriage is  15.6 years  Accordingly, childbearing begins at early ages 63% of women became mothers before their 20th birthday.
J contraception is more or less known, and not practised especially; in 1990, 57% in rural areas and 94% in urban centres knew at least one method But the proportion of w omen having ever used one was only 4.2% in rural areas, against 24% in towns, the
__Inorder to eliminate possible effects on parity of age dmribuiion difforenuak.
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akubo River Bi^in Integrated Development Mister Plan
3 A • 258
SOCIO-ECONOMICS
It should be noted that
ANNEX 3A population
0
increased from 58 % in 1984 to 63 % in 1990, when the group 35 and over decr«. u from 34 to 28 %.
There is  a general agreement on the fact that fertility  has  increased significantly  and continuously during the last 25 years (TFR = 5.8 in 1970), especially in rural areas In urban areas, fertility  would have increased from 4.7 in 1970 to 6,3 in 1984, and would have declined to 5,8 in 1990 The causes of this evolution would be mainly increase in the age at marriage and in the use of contraception methods Furthermore, some analysts assume the possibility of a "mini baby boom" in the near future, due to demobilisation of the military in
D reported TFR was 6 6 in 1984 against 6 9 in 1990, which means an increase of 5 % u "fertility schedule": % distribution of ASFR has slightly changed in a way toward
concentration of fertility in central age range of 20-34 the importance of this gr J 
1991
3.3.4 Future evolution
CSA proposed in 1Q84 a set of assumptions
_i a constant birth ratio of 103 male births per 100 female births,
y
a  fertility  stagnation  during  10  years  (low  assumption)  or  15  years  (medium assumption), and then a very sluggish decline: according to medium assumption. TFR would show a decrease of 0 3 children per woman every 5 years (Table 12)
Table 12 CSA .Assumptions about Total Fertility Rate (Children Per Woman Aged 15-49)
11
Ulubabor              Keffa               WcOega
National
Year
Medium    Lou
Medtum    Lou     Medium     Lou
Lou      Medium
1984
1985- 1990
1995 - 2000
2005-2010
2015 -2020
741
741
7 41 741
7.35        6J7
6.92        6.37
591        4.99
769         7.69        7.59        7.59 7 69        7 69         759         7.59 7 63        755         7 55        7.45 7.21        666         710         6 56
| 6 19 528 609 5 18
7.49        7.49 7.49         749 7.43        7 35
1 7.00         6 45 199       5 08
Source Thr 1984 population and housing census of Ethiopia - Analytical report at tuinonal level -
OtLcc of the population and housing census of Ethiopia. Addis Ababa, December 1991
The National Population Policy of Ethiopia proposed specific objectives
□   "reducing the cunent Total Fertility Rate of 7,7 children per woman’* to approximately 4 0 by the year 2015,
□   "increasing the prevalence of contraceptive use from 4 0% to 44 0% by the year 2015../’.
The objective of reducing TFR by 50% in 20 years seems fairly optimistic, as well as multiplying by 10 the contraceptive prevalence rate And one can reasonably assume that they will be hardly reached, that is why they will be considered as optimistic targets, which will correspond to our low assumption.
" National average including urban areas (Addis Ababa as well as all other towns)
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
3A-26
___SOCIOECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
Our  assumptions,  summarised  in  Table  13,  are  the  following,  taking  account  of  the  general theory   of   fertility   transition   and   the   willingness   of   the   Public   Authorities   to   cope   with copulation  aspects  of  development  in  a  way  to  reduce  drastically  fertility  It  is  considered  that no  change  in  the  fertility  partem  has  affected  both  rural  and  urban  areas  from  1985  to  1995 Thereafter, the decline will be much slower in rural areas than in towns:
□  in  rural  areas,  TFR  decline  would  be  -0,2  children  every  5  years  from  1995  to  2020, and  -0.35  from  2020  to  2035  But  TFR  would  remain  a  little  higher  than  5.0  children per  woman  in  2030-2035  The  %  distribution  of  ASFR  in  2035  would  be  close  to  that observed in 1990 in urban areas
L  in  urban  areas.  TFR  decline  would  be  -0,3  children  per  woman  every  5  years  from 1995  to  2010,  and  then  -0,5  children  every  5  years  until  2035  TFR  would  be  a  little higher  than  3,5  children  per  woman  in  2030-2035  The  %  distribution  of  ASFK  in  2035 would be close to that observed in 1990 in Addis Ababa
Table 13              TAMS-ULG Assumptions About Total Fertility Rale For The Project Area
Year ■ Period
Rural                   Urban
1984
1995 - zoco
2OO5-2GJ3
2015-2020
7.49                       7.06
7.29                       6.76
6.B9                       616
6 49 5.16
2D25-2O3O
5.79
4.16
Natality, i.e the number of births in the total population, will evolve differently than fertility 
there will be a long delay before it starts declining, as a consequence of the age and sex distribution of the population as well as the growth rate, small groups of older women (aged
45-49 years) being replaced by bigger groups of younger women (aged 15-19 years) The
Crude Birth Rate (CBR) will decrease:
J  in  rural  areas,  by  11%  in  45  years  when  the  lb  K's  decline  will  be  27%.  In  fact.  CBR will  increase  continuously  from  1985  to  2010,  and  then  it  will  decline  sluggishly,  and even in 2030-35, CBR will probably still be close to 38%o,
□ in urban areas, by 36% in 45 years when the TFR's decline will be 48%. In fact, CBR
will increase continuously from 1985 to 1995, and then it will decline, but, in spite of
this decline, in 2030-35, CBR will probably still be a little higher than 30%o.3 4
Mortality
3-4/ Past Situation (in 1984)
Source of data mortality  data relating to year 1984 which are presented beiow are derived from the 1984 Population census  analytical census  reports published by  the C S A in 1990 These data are the only  existing ones  which relate to regions  of the Project Area (these regions do not exist any more now as "administrative regions").
Because deaths, particularly  infant deaths  reported in the census, are usually  subject to substantial underreporting, the reported data needed to be adjusted using indirect techniques based on information on proportion dead among children ever bom by age of woman 2
TAMS-ULG Buro-Akobo River Basin Intrgralcd Development Muter Plan
JA - 27SOCIO-ECONOMICSANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECT
specific  methods  of estimation (Trussci, Sullivan) and 2 sets  of model life tables  (Coale £ Demenv  West and North) were tested The final estimates  were derived by  Trussel method and implied by  the Princeton West model Therefore, the following data are the adjust^ ones.
There are variations  in mortality  levels  in the Project Area Ulubabor and Keffa have much Jngher rates  than Wrillega, as  well in rural areas  as  in towns  For example, people living jn Wollega Region have an expectation of iife 8 years higher than those in Keffa
Table 14 Regional Mortality Indicators By Type Of Resident In 1984
Ulubabor
Keffa
WoUega
_________
tnfanr Mortality Rate (0 veors i -
Rural            Urban            Rural               Urban                 Rural              Urban              Rural
National
Urban
Males
114.0            101.6
144 .D            103.4                  992                 86 J                  1I8J
102.8
fanatea
98.3               88.5
126.9              88.9
87.3                68.1                 104 3                  84 9
-------------------- -
Child Mortality Rate 1-4 ’■can) •  *1              -n
Males          52.8              44 6
4J 8
43 1                 35 1
55.7                    45.5
FcnuJes      53 9           | 46 3                78.6                 464                     45.3              .31.3
58 7                    43.6
Expectation of life ai birth (yean)
Males
514                53.6              46,4
33.2
54 0                56 5
50.7                    53.3
54.0               56 [              <4
56.0                    56 3                60.6                 52.S
56.S
Crude Drath Rate i %o
1970
20 0
IM
19.4
14 6                        17.2
14.7
3.4.2 Present Situation (In 1994)
Source of data the 1990 National Family  and Fertility  Survey (NFFS) is  the only  source ot recent data about mortality; but unfortunately, it gathered only  data about childhood mortality, and no data about adult mortality. The only  available information on childhood mortality  related to rural areas  are presented in Table 15 It is  clear that childhood mortality has been experiencing a declining trend during the last 20 years.
1 able 15 Neo-Natal, Infant and Child Mortality Rates, In Rural Areas
Period
Neo-natal          Infant
1975-79                           65 9
138.8
1980- 84                          574                  127 0
1985 - 89                         469
104.8
Child 93,5 83,0 os
Source 1990 National Family and Fertility Survey - QSN, 1992
TAMS-L LG liam-Akobo River Basin Jnicgraied Uesetnpineni Mister PlanSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
cording   to   a   recent   survey   conducted   by   the   Ministry   of   Health   in   I99511,   the   Infant Mortality  Rate  (before  the  Is1   birthday)  and  Child  Mortality  Rate  (from  l“  to  5a   birthday)  for ilte  whole  country  (urban  and  rural  together)  would  be  respectively  105  9t»  and  52,5  %».  this means that 1 in every 7 live births would die before his or her 5th birthday
Recent evolution
Oti a national level, in spite of the tendency  to decrease, mortality  is  still high today, as shown in Table lb Its  decline has  been slow: reasons  include the war lasting until 19^1, long periods  of drought and serious  famines  within the 25 last years  Furthermore, analysts  fear existing mortality decline may be partially compensated by a quick rise of seropositivity.
Table 16            1984-1990 Evolution of Nitionai Mortality Indicators By Type Of
Residence
1
Rural
Urban
----------
Infant Mortality Rate (%o
1984
1990 (both sexes)
117 2
111.6
102,6
94.2
Child Mortality Rate (%o)
1984
1990
54 9
57 4
Expectation of life at birth for both
sexes (years)
1984
1990
50 8
53.2
53 1
56.7
Crude Death Rate (%>)
1984
1990
17.2
?
14 7
9
Sources:        ] 984 The 198-i population and housing census of Ethiopia: analytical
report at national ie wl - op. ci:.
1990 Fopulaliun and socio-economic data sheet, CSA, 1991
In the Project Area, to which extent the 0 3 % (for the whole Project Area) missing part of
the natural increase proposed by CSA in 1984 would originate from net out-migration, and
not from worse mortality conditions than expected, it is difficult to conclude But this 
explanation cannot be a priori left aside, so strong have been additional papulation pressures 
on the area
from  1985  to  1991,  about  half  a  million  Sudanese  refugees  (between  300,000  and 500,000, not counted in any of the 2 censuses) have been living in the Project Area not far  from  the  border  mainly  in  Gambela  region.  As  a  matter  of  fact,  this  presence  has created   tensions   especially   on   land,   and   involved   a   very   serious   environmental degradation
report should be mailable by March 1996_______ ________________________ TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River B.isin [ntcgraitd Deirkipment Muster PlanSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
□ in 1985. about 200,000 resettled people originating from North Ethiopia settled in the Protect .Area : 2 weredas from 3 were affected by this movement
3.43 Health situation
General coverage
/According to Regional Health Profiles and 5 year Health Plans issued for each region Gambela region seems to experience far better health conditions than any other region in the Project Area, as shown in Table 17
Table 1" General Health Coverage rates in 1992, In Rural Areas (%)
Asosa         Gambela         Dlubabor      KefTa         Wellegji        National
-■
% health
1 coverage (a)
87                   60                  66
60
% antenatal
coverage
65                    17
19
J
18
% deliveries 
assisted
13                   6                    7
6
L
■ ■ —’
1
family planning                                 5                     2
2|1
(a) Papulation within 10 km
Sburcr.
/mmunisarion
i regional /tegjftw/ healthprofiles and 5 war Mfokh Plans. Ministry of Health, 1992 (national JVoffomi/ Population Policy' of Ethiopia, op. cit,
Data relating to year 1992 explain specific  sub regional differences'4 The Expanded Programme of Immunisation (EPI), the establishment of which generated so much optimism, has suffered serious setbacks in the late 1980s and the early ! 990sMl5,
Table 18 Immunisation Rates In 1992, In Rural Areas (%)
Asosa Gambela
Illuba bor
KefTa          lYAellega
National
< 1 year (BCG)
190
< I year (measles)
9.0
< 1 year (DPT -31
35.3
140
16.6
9.1
12.0
< 1 year (Polio-3) |
13.0
< I year (folly 
immunised i
29.7
8.5
10.7
69
Women 15-49 (TT2)
24.5
99
11.0
5.5
7.0
On a national le\cl (urban-t-niraj), the pcrccniagc of 23 % was proposed for the year 1989. ( ') Source. A'anarwlpopulation policy of Ethiopia* op. cit
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Mister PlanSOCIO-ECONOMIC S
ANNEX SA POPULATION ASPECTS
The most recent data refer to 1995 l” sem<«<fpr rk«.
regions  are difficult to identify  Nevertheless  i* ? pr^nted by re»10n- but these weighted according to population numbers, this  regional a\2L IO Caic“Llie an averaSe
the national average Bul these rates differ overwhelming fi
n °f dlffer much from
*
tt .. .he ™P- pm of tlK pragre°
* ™y
T»bk 19 Immunisation Rate, In 19 5 (% „f Con„rned popo|ali(Jil)
,
% immunised               Project area        National
BCG Measles DPT 4 Polio 3 TT 2P
52 6
32.6
40.0
40.2
29.1
59 0
35.0 1
4! 0
40.0
19 0
Sdwrc.   unpublished   dan   fror.   Mother   and   Child   Health
DepirtnenL, Mjmitry of Health
Nutritional status of children
According to the 1992 National Rural Num non Survey. malnutrition is  widely  spread out all over the country : in rural areas. 8 % of children aged 6 to 59 months are: "wasting**, i.e low weight for height16 which is sometimes  referred to as an indicator of acute malnutrition; 64 % are "stunting", i.e low height for age1 which is  sometimes  considered as  chronic, at last, 48 % are of "underweight", i.e low weight for age18
Table 20 Nutrition among 6-59 Months Children in 1992, in Rural .Areas (%)
Type of main u trit ion                 lllubabor                Keffa          | Wellega             National
wasting (acute >
9.1
7.3                  10,8                  8,0
■
stunting (chronicJ
67,1                    1 60,9
' 59,2
64,2
.underweight
52,5                       38,2               51,6                  47.7
1
There   are,   to   a   certain   extent,   some   regional   differences   Wellega   and   lllubabor   suffer significantly more from malnutrition than Keffa
Wasting is a reflection on the thinness of a child, which is independent of his/hci height Thinness tends to
to more recent experiences (food intake and diseases) and. in contrast to height a child can recover
.J®  a bout of wasting once normal food intake and health stains are re-established"
Stunting  15  a  reflection  of  the  lifelong  experience  of  a  child,  since  deficits  in  height  continue  (o  accumulate during   early   childhood   with   most   deficits   occurring   in   the   to   24   years   to   little   or   no   catch-up   growth 'hereafter".
Underweight is a summary reflection of the degree of wasting and stunting in a child, because thinness and ^ lghl  deficits  will  both  result  in  the  child  weighting  less  than  normal  for his/her  age.  But  its  weakness  resides  in
—^2I_LL g ui Dt distinguish between long-term and more recent experiences affectingjhc child *.____________________
cr
|
1
TAMS-ULC Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
3A-JIS0C10-EC050M1CS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION
3.44 AIDS
Sourer of data
The National Information System managed by the Epidemiology of Aids Department of
Ministry of Health, gives quarterly information about the spreading of the disease and
cumulative analysis of all cases reported from the outbreak of the pandemic is performed3
Also, a national study has been carried oui recently, but a copy was not available
Accordingly,  the  data  presented  hereafter  relate  to  the  whole  country,  and  not  to  the  Protect Area
Statistical history
The history' of AIDS starts in 1986. the first surveys being conducted between 1984 and 1987 Globally, between January 1986 and April 1995, 18,042 cases were reported in 57 hospitals ftom which 7,491 in Addis Ababa The number of "repotted cases" increased from 2 in 1986 to 5,558 in 1994 (3.301 males and 2.241 females} By year of reporting, the distribution of cases was:
Table 21 A IDS Cases by Year of Report
1
--------------------- —
Year(s) of
reporting
Case?
Sei ratio
Numbers               %
1986-89
1990
1991
1092
1993
1994 1995 (U quarter )
Total
294                   1.6
448                   2.5
886                  4.9
3256                18.0
5 124                28.4
5 558                30,8
2 476 13.7
18 042 100,0
242
187
195
156
165
147
148
158
Source: Aids update - Epidemiology and Aids Department, Mimstn of
Haith - Addis Abiba- 30 Apnl I995
This  continuously  increasing number shows  how rapid is  the spreading out of the disease between December 1994 and April 1995, 2,476 cases  were reported, from which 1,330 in Addis  Ababa The major increase in the number of cases, from year 1992, may  come partially  from demobilisation of troops  in 1991, militaries  accounting for 13 % of the cases  in that time.
in the same time, the rate of increase is  much higher in recent years  for females  than for males: the continuously  declining sex  ratios  show how AIDS became year after year less unequally  distributed among population The age distribution of the reported cases  in the country is
TAMS'ULG Baro-Akobo River Ba., in Imegraled Development Miutcr Plan5OC1O'ecON0M,CS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
Table 22 Reported Aids Cases By Age Group
Age group
Caso Numbers              %
Sex ratio
(M'lOO.T)
0-4                     299
1.7
5 - 14
15 - 19
42 0.2
965 53
20 - 29 7 846 43.5
30*39 5 683 31 5
40-49                2 318
12.8
108
91 30 109 252 347
50 -59                 726                  40                  325
60 +                   163
0.9                  462
Total
J8O42             100.0                158
Sourer:                          30 April IW5. op writ
The average age of the infected cases is 30 -4 years.
The sexually active group (15-49 years) accounts for 93.1 %, when the elderly (60 years and over) and the youngsters  (under 15) are still very  few, respectively  0.9 and 1 9 %. But it is expected that the disease will spread out quickly within the younger group
The sex  ratio shows  that males  are much more infected than women (158 males  for 100 females) But this  not true under the age of 30 (96), the proportion is  much higher after 30: 281.
By  region  of  residence,  from  the  18,042  cases,  1240  are  living  in  5  regions  which  are (partially or totally) in the Project Area:
Table 23 Reported .Aids Cases in Regions Of The Project Aren
[~
----------- -------------------------------
Cases
1
Region
Numbers % 18,042
cases
Asosa
Gambclla
20 0.1
24 0.1
J
llliibabor                229 Keffa                    42
1.3
0.2
Wdlcga
Total 5 regions
925 5 2
1 240 7.9
Source: J/nra^fcle, 30 April tM5, op.cil
TAMS-LLG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
3A-33SOCIOECONOMICS
annex 3a population ASPECT'S ,  4  „  it  k  known  that  lhe  western  part  of  the  ccuntiy  has  been
According » «nw
ou , of 1(ie My of
j  roads However, the presence of 3
ma w
T               imnTfn the area aceommodetmg more than 60.000 refugees and where
^itiZ   is   much   higher   ihan   among   any   other   population,   increases   the   mlensuy   of   the risk
Delian uf return populatto,,. according <o a recent study, earned on. in 1992 in the
and eonfnned in 1994”. on 3 categories of population sex workers residing in S Aman and handinka towns, refugee students and refugees who have been res.dmg in ^SrnmTeamp The prevalence rale among refugee men of the study area would be 5%
the Dimma p. P
vounzefi 45% amonn commercial sex workers (40% m
Sink°a.T%   in   .Aman   townsl.   2   to   6%   among   antenatal   clinic   attendants   (2%   in   Dimm. and 6% in Mizan Teferi towns).
bi 1994, 32% of genera I refugees and 19% of refugee students had had sex with prostitutes in the last 3 months. But, in that time, the use of condoms was still insufficient; 27% of the sex workers, 54% of rhe general refugees  and 30% of the refugee students  had never used a condom; only 37% of the sex workers declared they were using a condom "always" ..
The major risk  factor is  heterosexual transmission (87.0 % of the cases), when maternal HV/breast feeding accounts  for 1 5 %, illegal injection for 1.0 %. and blood transfusion for 0.7 %. In fact, for 9.7 % of the .AIDS cases the risk factor was unspecified; so the proportion of heterosexual transmission is probably higher than 90 %
Of course, there are classic al risk groups, such as female sex w orkers (in 1988, 5 3 % in Metu and 9;8 % in Jimma), travelling persons (drivers, merchants, etc.)
The distribution of the cases by occupation was as follows, in April 1995: Table 24 Reported Aids Cases By Occupation
Age group                           Numbers
Cisei
% 111,042 fases
Sex ratio
(M’iOOrEl
GflVErwtent employees Army
Merchants
House Wes
Driven
Sex wcikEts
Students
2433 13 5 387
2 012 112 3 845
1 522 84
I 496 8.3
I 215
943
6-7
52
445
(1 OOH flaks)
(1OQ femijri)
769                        4.3                           64
Source: Aids update, 3t> April 1995, Bp nt
15 William Brady ct. al.
. Baseline Survey Report HndSTD PROJECT - Keffa, Ethiopia, 1992
. Progress Report Hit' STD Control and Prevention Project Bench Zone - Ethiopia. August 199 J 
Workneh Felckt cl al Evaluation Report of HrrfSw Control and Prevention - UNHCR CDC-vRASf^
Joint Project Bench Zone of Southern Ethiopia Region - June 11-18 1994__________________ ___________ __
TAMS-LEG Ba ro-A kobo River Basin Integrated Development Master PlanSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
prevalence HTV among adult population 1993
2004 after 2004
x 6A (0 f to 1.2% of total rural population
(7 to 12% of total urban population 2.0% (conservative assumption)
Stabilisation
Stabilisation  is  contemplated  assuming  the  medium  term  AIDS  Control  Programme  (which has been implemented in early 1988) is working satisfactorily
It  is  reconstructed  (by  simulation  using  a  logistic  function)  the  past  and  future  evolution  of AIDS prevalence rate in urban and rural areas.
Table 25           1984-2004 Evolution of HIV Prevalence (% of Adult Population)
Rani                Vrbia
Total
1984
1986
l?S«
1990
[992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2005
0 00                     0.01                    0 01
101                      006                     0.03
0.05                     0.03                    0.11
021                       1 51                    0 49
0.64                     6.05                     1.67
126                     13,95                   350
1.65                    18,49                   4 58
1 76                    19.70                   4.90
1 79                    19,94                   4 95
I 8C                    19.99                   5.00
I 85                    20 00                    5 00
1.80                   20.00                    5.00
SffllJVf Tams-UU evkrnd!-
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo Rivrr Bjlsiii Integrated Development Master PlanSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
Eidtftion a F AIDS *eropr*v*Jenrp
(% or ad nil popubttav
Cofl5£^Menc£s (oh a national level):
~ on mortality  AIDS will increase mortality  at all ages, but the impact will be most severe among young adults  (aged 15-49) and children under the age of 5. Aids may involve a 50 % increase in the number of adult deaths  by  2009 Because of the continuous  decline for all causes  of death other than AIDS. expectation of life at birth will raise from 54 years for the time being to 57 years in 2009
on  natural  increase  according  to  the  study  on  AIDS,  its  components  may  evolve  as follows  in  2009,  2  6  Vo  per  annum,  without  AIDS.  But  with  AIDS,  the  rate  would  be much lower: 2 I % per annum.
3,4.5 Future evolution
The CSA proposed in 1984 a continuous increase in the expectation of life at birth of % year even1 5 years  during 15 years, and then of year every  5 years  during the 15 following years  Of course, these assumptions  do not take into account the possible effects  of AIDS, because its effects were not clearly known in the time when the forecast was made
Table 26 CSA Assumptions About Expectation Of Life At Birth (Years)
lllababor                KHTa                Wellega
National
Year
1
MFMFMF
MF
ism
1985 - IW3
1995 - 2000
2005.2010
2015-2020
5!5 542
52 6 55.2
54-3 57 0
56.6 392
58.8 61.7
46.7 48 8
47 7 49.8
49.5 51.6
52,0 54.1
542 %6
54.1 56.5
55.2 57.6
56.9        59.3
59.2        61.6
609         63 8
50 8         53 1
519         54_2
53.6         55.9
1 55.9          57.2    1 58.1        59 7
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master PlanSOCIO-ECONOM'CS__________________                      ANXEX 3a POril ATION ASPECTS
■pje Rational Population Policy of Ethiopia proposed specific objectives for mortality 
■reducing maternal, infant and child morbidity and mortality rates as well as promoting the
level of ucnera] welfare of the population" But no quantitative target was put forward
Qur assumption are following, taking account of the genera! theory of mortality 
transition, the willingness or the Public Authorities to cope with population aspects of
development in a wav to reduce drastically mortality; mother and child mortality thanks to
specific programmes (such as EPL etc ), and also adult mortality thanks to programmes for
Ans control. This aspect of mortality will prevent the area from obtaining good results,
especially in urban areas
Expectation Of life al birth will evolve slowly  in the next few years: and then the movement will become stronger and quicker as soon as time is going: in rural as well as in urban areas, bv  0,25 years  every  5 years  until year 2000, then by  0,50 years  every  5 years  from 2000 to 2020, and by 1.00 year every 5 years thereafter
Table 27 TAMS-ULG assumptions about expectation of life at birth for the Project Area (years)
Year
I                  Rural _____  ____________ Urban
Mak              Female              Mak              Female
J 984
1995-2000
2005-20]0
2015 - 2020
2025 - 2030
51.6 54.8 54.8 58 0
52.4 55 A 55.6 58 8
53.4               56.5               56 5              59.7
54.4               STS               57-5               60.7
364               59.6               59 6              62 8
The  Crude  Death  Rate  (Cdr).  i  c  the  number  of  deaths  compared  with  the  tom!  population, will evolve differently in rural areas than in towns:
Q  in  rural  areas,  the  decline  will  be  continuous  from  I7,59i>  in  1985-90  to  10  7°i»  50 years later;
0  in  towns,  contrary  to  what  was  expected,  CDR  will  increase  strongly  all  over  the  next 50  years:  from  13  7%o  in  1985-90  to  17.796a  in  2030-2035  The  maximum  value  will  be reached in 2000-2005 with 21.696o; afterwards, it will decline
AzDs is  the major cause of this  strange evolution, which does  not seem to be "classic" The n umber of deaths  caused by  AIDS will increase very  overwhelmingly  from 715 per year during the 1995-2000 period to more than 12.300 per year in the 2030-35 period These deaths  are now accounting for 2% of the total number of deaths, but. in 2030-35, the Percentage may be as high as 20%, with major differentials by type of residence
■4 in rural areas, the number of deaths due to AOs will increase from 0 now to more than 4000 per year in the 2030-35 period, which means that S 5% of the total number of deaths would result from Aids;
Tams-ULG BarD-Akobo River Basin lntep-awd DevdcnprncDt Master Plan
3A-37SOCIO-ECONOMICS________________________  ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASP££^
U in urban areas, the situation will become dramatic (if no cure is discovered in the
years): the percentage of deaths caused by AIDS will increase from 715 per year in
"1995-2000 to 8,300 in 2030-35, i.c respectively 22% and &4% of the total number Of deaths! .And the percentage of deaths due to AIDS will be over 50% only a few vears
after 2000
3  J        Migration
3 5.1 Past Migration Patterns
Migration in the Project Area have been very specific over the past 10 years: the Project Area has  "welcome*, about year 1985 (i e hardly  a year after the census), more than ’4 million people in the same year, i.e an increase of 35%:
□    about 200,000 people "resettled" from North Ethiopia, who were projected to settle on better lands far from drought affected areas.
□    about 400.000 refugees came from Sudan and stayed in the Project .Area for several years.
ft is known that the bulk of them left their resettlement area, or died because of diseases they were not used to It is also know, ihat most refugees left the area or were repatriated to Sudan in 1991. This is the reason why most migration patterns presented above can hardly be used
The major problem about the migratory increase of population is that this phenomenon originated, mainly, from one off events which will probably not happen again (in principle):
□    first of all. the available data (relating to years 1984 and 1993) only give a residual image  of  events,  since  the  2  surges  occurred  and  mostly  disappeared  within  the intercensal period;
the "resettlement programme " was a failure,
□    as for the refugees, their number went suddenly up to 400,000 in 1985, and remained so until 1991. Then, in a few months, most refugees were repatriated, and the remaining number fell down to xO.OOC1  tn iate 1991 From this year, the number increased slowly' but continuously, and in January 1996 the number is close to 61 500.
But  the  phenomenon  has  not  been  measured  accurately,  especially*  regarding  refticees; although fragmented data exist for Ethiopia wide movement.
TAMS-LLG Baro-AkObo River Basin Integrated Doelupmeut Master PlanSOCIO-ECONOMICS________________ _                    ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS Table 2S Migration Rates, By Type Of Migrant And Type Of Migration, In 1981-81 (X«)
Local
movers
Intra-regiona 1 migrant* • i
Rural ia Urban Urban io Rural
Inler-rraonal miaruti i”•*1
Ag*
Rural Rural            Rural to Urban
Urban   Eli Rural
MFMF
MFMF
p
M MF
do-cm 05-U
15-24
X5-34
35-49
50 +
Sot staled Total .
8.3           9 4
11.4         12.4
25-2         34.7
10.4 10.2
3 3 60
35 8j
272 30.3
10.7 13,5
0.7           0.8           1 7          2C 0.9           1 2          2.0           !.S 3.0           3 2           3.3          4.6
17            12           1 V          2.6
Ci .7          0.5           0.8           17
0.5           0.7           0,9           1.9
5.4           3.9           5.4          95
U            1,3           1.8          2,4
0.7           07          0.1           0.!           0.1                 0.2 I 0.5           0.6          0.2          0.3           0.1           0.1
1.3          1.9          1.2          0.3           0 5           06
07           08           0.9          0.1           0.4           0.1
04           04           0.2          0.1           0,1           0 1
0.2           0.5          0,2           31            02           0.1
22           1.2
3.3            04
05           08           04           0.2           0.2            0.2
i♦) within the same region 
f"*) towards a iiifterenI region
The most complete data relate to years  1981-82 (survey  about migration conducted by  CSA during a full year). Here above are the national averages, which seem to be less affected by the "not stated" ages  (very  numerous  in some regions), than the regional distributions  The indicator is a rate, per 1,000 persons "of the mid-vear population"
□  "movers”  ■  change  of  residence  within  the  boundaries  of  the  same  administrative  unit (wereda)
~ "migrants” change of residence outside the boundaries  of the same administrative unit (wereda), plus  absence from residence for more than 6 months, plus  intention of not returning.
The latest data about migrations, result from the 1984 population census  (the Analytical report at national level published in December 1991) The age distributions  of migrants  are the following
Table 29 Age Structure Of Migrants By Type Of Migration And Region, in 1984 /Population lumbers')
Age
00-09
10-19
20-19
3Q-J9 40-49
5Q + (iscl. NS) ___ £oUl
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Devdoptnent Master Plan
3A-39SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION
After analysis of the above data, tt is difficult to conclude in favour of one of them In  fac. 2 aspects of mizration have been considered
L the total number of migrants in each 5 year period in order to evaluate their number during the 1984-1993 period, we earned out a population forecast from 1984 to 1993 without migration Accordingly, it was possible to calculate net migration flows in rural
areas.
0 1985-90 was a period of net in-migration, due to the cumulated effect of the arrival of  refugees  and  resettled  people.  During  these  5  years,  23,000  net  in-migrants settled in the Project Area, resulting from the difference between an in-migration flow   of   198,000   "resettled   people"   and   two   out-migration   flows:   115,000 "returnees"  i.e  resettlers  who  returned  home,  and  a  "normal  out-migration  flow" (i c rural-urban migration) which has been estimated to 60.000
0 1990-95 was a period of net out-migration 94,00G net out-migrants, corresponding to the "normal out-migration flow" (60,000) plus 34,000 "returnees"
□ an age and sex distribution of migrants, taken from a classic model (People software) Age &. sex distribution of migrants
(%)
50             40             30             20             10 0
□ Females ■ Males
10 20
30             40             50
3.5.2   Future migration pattern
CSA stated in 1984 that "migration stream from and to the region, ie net inter-regional migration is  assumed to be insignificant and not likely  to affect population size and its structure in the future drastically". Therefore. CSA did not take into account this aspect of population growth
Our assumptions, about the past evolution as well as about the future, differ very much not only because of recent events which affected the Project Area over the last 10 years, but also because it is obvious that the region is affected by rural-urban migration
About the future, it is assumed that the Project Area will be affected by a classic continuous and strong out-migration flow towards towns, partly in the area, and partly outside the Project Area It is also assumed that the overaU sex ratio of migrants would be 110 males for 100 females
TA.MS-IJLG Baro-Aknbo River Basin Integrated Development Master PlanS 0C1O-EcO!VOMICS
annex 3A population aspects
hie 30 TAMS-ULG Assumptions About Yearly Migration Flows Within The Project
1  “ 
Area
(Population Numbers By Year/
Year
Kuril arcu
Set out-migrants % (uttrxrdse
Urban
Net m-migran^   % rural oui-iiugr.
iW5 - 2000
2000-2005
3005-2010
2010-2015
2015 - 2020
2020 - 2025
2025-2050
2030 -2035
- I7Q00                       29 8
*20000
29.0
-24 000                       30.4
-26 000                      29 5
-29 000                      30 5
- 32 DOG 31 -
+ 2600 15.3
+ 3377 169
+ 4392 18.3
+ 3 713
22 0
- 35 000
-38 000 -J
32 J
+ 7426 25.6
-9 653                      30 2
+ 11 101                     31 7
* 12 757                     336
□  rural  areas  will  lose  every  year,  on  average,  about  30%  of  their  natural  increase  over the  next  -JO  years  This  means  that,  for  example,  over  the  1995-2000  period,  the  yearly net  migratory  balance  will  be  17,000  out-migrants  from  rural  areas,  i  e.  85.000  persons in  5  years  (30%  of  the  corresponding  natural  increase),  and  over  the  2030-2035  period, the  number  of  net  out-migrants  will  be  38,000,  i.e.  190,000  in  5  years  (33%  of  the natural increase),
urban areas will be affected by  2 migratory  movements: one consisting of rural-urban in-migration flows, and the other of urban-urban out-migration flows  (considering the towns  in the Project .Area as  departure zones  for migration towards  bigger towns) The net migratory  balance will be continuously  positive, and will correspond to an increasing share of the out-migration flow from rural areas  from 15% in 1995-2000 to 34% in 2030-2035, the bigger towns  in the Project Area being more and more attractive (because of their size, public amenities, etc ) for local rural-urban migrants.
The  net  migration  rate  will  have  an  increasing  importance  over  the  next  40  years,  especially oi urban areas
—  in rural areas, the rate will be continuously  negative because of net out-migration. It will vary  from -O S % per year in the 1995-2000 period, lo -0.9% in the 2030-2035 period In fact, in rural areas, the migratory  rates  as  well as  the rates  of natural increase will be remarkably stable,
-      in  urban  areas,  the  rate  will  be  continuously  positive,  because  of  net  in-migration.  It will  increase  from  +1.3%  in  the  next  5  years  (against  2  9%  for  natural  increase),  to +  1.7%  h  2030-2035  (against  1.3%  for  natural  increase).  So,  while  natural  increase rates  will  be  experiencing  a  rapid  decline  (divided  by  2.2  in  40  years),  migration  rates "ill be multiplied by 1 3 over the same period ot time
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobn River Basin Integrated Development MasterPlan
3A-41SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION AS|>F,CTS
CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
4.1       Population Size
4.1.1    Globally
The population of the Project Area, which is  estimated to be 2 2 million people in 1995, will increase to 5 3 million in 2035, The detailed numbers by type of residence, wereda, zone and region, for years 198-4,1993 ,1995, 2000, 2015 and 2035, are presented in Appendix 1 Tables 3 (rural areas), 4 (urban areas) and 5 (total’)
This  increase corresponds  to an average growth rale of 2 2% per year, i,e 2.05% in rural areas  and 4.03% in urban areas  One of the major consequences  of this  population chance
will  be  the  threefold  increase  in  the  population  densities,  which  will  be  70  people  per  km3
globally, and 60 in rural areas, in 2035. as detailed in Table 31
Table 31 Growth of Population and densities, 1985 - 2035
Population numbers
1
Density (persTkm )
Year
Rural              Urban
Total
Rural
Total
Urban rate {%)
1 985
1 990
1 995
1 630 000 107 800
I 868 000 143 700
2 029G00 182 500
I 737 800
2 011 700
2 211 500
21 5
24.6
26.7
22.9
26.5
29.1
6.2
71
8.3
2 000
2 005
2010
2 015
2 020
2 025
2 030
2 035
2 136 000 225 000
2 479 000 270 500
2 753 0-00 324 000
3 061 OOO 389 300
3 393 OOO      469 000
3 737 000         564 400
4 107 000         668 900
4 501 OOO 778 600
2 461 OOO
2 749 500
3 077 OOO
3 450 300
3 862 000
4 301 400
4 775 900
5 279 600
29.5
32.7
36.3
40.3
44.7
49 2
54 1
59.3
32.4
36.2
40.5
453
509
567
629
69.5
9.1
9.8
10.5
11.3
12.1
13.1
14.0
14.7 .
Refugees
The refugee population, in the Project Area is not included in the above mentioned numbers, because this  phenomenon is  projected to disappear, with the repatriation of the refugees, within the next few years. In the event that they are not repatriated, the problem would be as follows, assuming that the probable number of refugees remains constant at 100,000 people.
C globally, the consequences of this presence within the Project Area would not be important 4 5% in 1995 and 19% in 2035;
Z on a local scale, the consequences might be very serious' in Gambela region, where the camps are located, and which can be considered as the most hospitable area for
TAMS-ULG B ar o-Ako bo River Basin Integrated Development Muter Plan
3A-42SOCIO-FCONO^
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
refcgK5.
100.000   efojeewou.d   constmne   54%   of   the   1995   popular.   estimated   to
be 186.590. and 8 1/. of the population ,n 2035. projected to he 1 24 million Without immediate appropriate measures  (about land allocation, environment protection, employment, etc  ), such a burden might involve destruction of available arable lands and remaining forest over a period of only a feu years (as has happened over the last
10 years)
j  If  this  were  to  be  a  reality,  our  population  forecast  would  be  affected,  since  Gambela Region  would  be  turned  into  an  out-migration  area  for  example,  if  Gambela  were  to experience  a  growth  rate  over  the  next  40  years  equivalent  to  the  natural  increase  its population would be in 2035 close to 550,000 people, less than half of our forecast
X /. 2 Densities in 2035
Densities  per  wereda  in  the  3  projection  years,  i.e  2000.  2015  and  2035,  are  presented  in Volume IV Map Album for total densities (pages 8,9,10), as for rural densities (pages
11,12,13).
Rural densities will vary, on average, from one zone to another
L  the  lowest  densities  will  be  in  Mocha  and  Maji  zone,  with  respectively  8  and  11 people
1
per km ,
relatively  low densities  will be located as  well in the Upper Basin, mainly  in its western fringe from nonh to south Asosa zone (51 people per km1). Eastern Welleqa i e Arjo zone (45), Gore zone (67), Bench - Gimira zone (36). as in Gambela Reeion'in the Lower Basin (46);
-  higher  densities  will  be  located  in  the  central  eastern  part  of  the  Upper  Basin  and around  Tepi:  Illubabor  zone  (153  people  per  km1),  Buno  Bedele  zone  (139)  Shekicho zone(134)
T.U1 densities. which take account
the only major difference relating to Shckicno zo
But, in 2035, many zones will have a density arg
1
i „■ than ino oeoole per km Kelem (101),
(183).
on y
[  2 will have a
Gimbi (113). Illubabor (172). Buno Bedele (150). cto ( torn less than 40: Maji and Mocha with respectively I. and
Implications for development and "Population up. pr.orannntv" of the land in the Project Area.
,.
It ls often considered that a density o* -’0
r t0' n in 40 oeople oer knt1 is a threshold beyond this
limit, systems of agricultural production wou renewal of soils fertility.
ln fact, before concluding about to which extent Ii
< l0 efficient because of poor
/tensities are reasonable or not, it is 
Important to analyse the relevance of the concept o                - densities are crude densities The
- there is  a problem of definition: the above in^ 2?
nt
total area of each wereda is taken into accoun
ver   use    is.  but,  of  course,  only ^^imral production. Gambela
2   pan  of  these  km3   are  used  and/or  able  toi  e  nnoding,  is  a  good  example  the  crude region, a large percentage of which is Itable to flooding,
1AMS-ULG Barth.AJiobo River Buin Intern led Development Mosier Plan
3A-43SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPg^
2
densities are low, but it is probable that the ’’net1' densities (considering the "useful- km ) would be much higher
□ the areas to be taken into account vary over periods of time: for example, the are available for agriculture in the Lower Basin have probably decreased between 1985 and 1991 because of the sudden settlement of refugees and resettled households Therefore any "operational" density should consider changes in the used/usable areas 
C agricultural efficiency areas may vary’ over years according to the attention paid to their production capacity the yields may increase or decrease in relation with the effons made to improve the situation
~ One should refer to the Population Support Capacity model section in Volume 11 for further application of those concepts
4J.3 Regional Evolution
Table 32 Population Numbers By ” 1993 Region" In 2035
Region                              1995
2 035                   Growth rate
Name             Population             %
Popdaiia)               %
(% per ’.cari
4            Orcmia          I 321 020            59.8             2 521 205            47.8               1 63 6            Zvsosa           243 690             11.0              459 434               87               160 II           Southm.          460203              20.8             1062 401            20 I              2 11 12          Gambela          186 590              84              1 236 560           23 4              484
Total                   2 211 503           1000            5 279 599           100 0            2.20
L Regions very much affected bv out-migration, such as Oromia and Asosa, will have a growth rate much lower than natural increase Their importance in the Project Area will decline from 71% to 56% Southern region will be less affected by out-migration; its growth rate will not so far from natural increase, and its importance in the Project Area will remain nearly the same (from 20 8 to 20.1%),
□ Gambela region will experience a growth rate very different from the others, because of net in-migration In 2035, Gambela's population will be bigger than Southern's; its importance in the area will increase from 8 4% to 23 4% But in spite of this very’ big growth rate, the densities in the region will not reach very high figures, unless the areas of land available for food production decreases drastically
4.2      Rural / Urban Population
As noted above, the number of people living in city dwellers in the Project .Area will be multiplied by 7, but even so, this number will remain relatively low: 780.000 people in 2035 The urban rate will be multiplied by 2, but it will hardly reach 15% in 2035
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin inlegrated Dorlopnicni Master Plan
3A-44
JI;O rio-gc°M)M1('5
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
Tablr 33             198c> -* 2035 Evolution Of Urban Population In The Project Area
Town                         1995                    2000                      2015                    2035
. gig towns
Gambela
17,926
25,840
62,325              151,013
Tepi
Asosa
Mizan Teferi
Metu
Dembidolo
Gore
Mugi
9,869 13,140
10,894 13,867
30,159
28,153
81,632
65.775
10,196
12.911
25,875                59,530
19,084                   21,974                   31.832                46.676
19,583                   22,267
31.369                 44.66!
7.958
4,716
8,375                  10.031                 12,687
4.878
5,529
6,296
Total J&fjf tawrts             100.226
123,252                225.273
• Smaller towns
82,274                 101,748                 164,027              320,330
Total Ukban
182,500                225,000                 389300               778,600
The apparent sluggish increase in the urban population does not come only from the negative effects  of out-migration, but also from the very  bad conditions  of mortality  (particularly  ot Aids) which explain the very low level of natural increase
Only one "big town", Gambela, is projected to have in 2035 a population bigger than 100,000 inhabitants  Tcpi's  population will be 80,000, Asosa’s  65,000, 3 other cities  will have a population close to 50,000. Mizan Teferi, Dembidolo and Metu
4.3      Age and sex Structure
The various demographic indicators - popuat'°" rates, age and sex distributions, assumptions an from 1985 to 2035, are presented in Appendix ,
The age and sex structure will not change thorou^ y new mortality conditions In 2035, the popu ation
mbers 
a y ovcr the projection period, i e
fertility,     mortality,     migration
(rural areas) and 7 (urban areas) fertility   transition   and
..   arenite   expectyoedung (even if the median urban areas), and the proportion
to better understand the importance of
and the other one considering the demographic dyn ilze in order to identify the roots of evolution
will raise from 17 to 21 years in rural areas and to 18 * tiroan
of old people will be smaller than today.
ctures  one  considering  the  numbers 
ItK
w«ve2».vSOf«Mlyw»to»gc^’““™          inwmtxn          (t.e.          'he          real's          f
. sshatMt the population
TAMS-UL0 BjroAkobo River Buka Integrated Development Harter Plan
3A-45SOCIO-ECONOMICS
4.3.1  Numbers
ANNEX    3A    POPULATION    ASPFrr.
I n.rai areas in 2035 1 962,000 people will be under 15 against 77z,OOO in 1985 (that u £""«  note),  an'd  the  people  over  65  years  of  age  will  be  only  112,000  against  109,300  in >985  (!•  is  nearly  the  same  number  as  50  years  later).  The  number  of  women  m rarotoe   aae   (1549   veers)   will   be   1.049,000   against   315.000,   t.e   3   times   more.   tte explains why natality will experience a slower decline than fertility
In urban areas in 2035. 286,332 people will be under 15 against 49,403 in 1985 (that is 6 limes more), and the people over 65 years of age will be only 17.103 against 5.485 in 1985 (that is  3 times  more) The number of women in reproductive age (15-49 years) will be 207.280 against 23,008. i.e 9 times more, this explains why natality will decline so slowly in spite of a fairlv rap id decline in fertility.
RURAL
(Humbert in ] ,000 people f
>
1985
»
••
m w ac ix> no « 
■ m ta IM m ^0 »• 1M A0K
2035
TAMS-VLG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
3A-46gn
nO-ECON°*nCS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
urban
4.3.2  Percent Distribution
Comparing the various  percent distributions  (the basis  of each pyramid, whatever the corresponding population size, being equal to the same total of 100%) gives  the opportunity of better understanding:
□   differences between rural and urban areas at the same date, and differences in their
evolution,
□   evolution of the internal structure of the same population (say rural areas, or towns),
i.e how it becomes older over years.
In rural areas  44% of the population will be under 15 years  against 47% in 1985. and the people over 65 years  of age will be only  2.5% against 6 7% in 1985 Women aged 15-49 years  will account for 46.3% of the female population in 2035, against 38 8% in 1985 this modification of the age structure of female population affects natality negatively.
1
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integra**  Development Master Plan
3A-47SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPEc^
URBAN
of ttch MX]
1985
2035
years will account for 546% ofthf frn t ~           ’ “ga)nst 5 1% ,n 1985 Women aged 15-*9
years' of
2^ 15
*" 1
modification  of  the  age
age structure of female population affects natality negatively
structure  ofTemTl'  P°P,  ”°n  in  2035-  a8ainst   41  4%  in  1985  this 
can be explained as fohois^ith^gh^eSF)
2035. it will grow at a slower rate th^T that oZh/
“ d eldCfly P°Pula,ion
P  P ulatI0n
therefore, it appears to decline
hc Population as a whole. In percentage terms.
°
.
wUI   POw   in   Period   u?  10
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master PlanANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
tendency  ratio,  i  e  the  number  of  people  in  non  economically  active  age  groups  per T**e   L   ir.  economically  active  age  groups,  as  a  consequence  of  this  evolution  i.e  population persons  i^|  decrcase   drastically  from  1.03  in  1985  to  0.81  in  2035  in  rural  areas,  and  from ^0.6 in urban areas.
The sex v _(:n betw een 1985 and 2035, will result from the influence of migrations 
- jn Hjj-al areas, affected by out-migration, it will decrease from 101 to 99;
in  urban  areas,  affected  by  in-migration,  the  contrary  will  happen:  it  will  increase  from 94 to 105
4.4     Population of School Age
The number of children in school age at the various target years are presented below For this, the school age population are grouped into 4 groups, viz  elementary' (5-6 years), primary  (7- 12 years), junior secondary  (13-14 years! and senior secondary' (15-18 years), this  conforms 
with the classification used in Ethiopia
Table 34 a 1985 - 2035 Evolution Of Project Area's Number Of School Age Population, By Type Of Resident
Year
• RUML ar™
1985                  19-95                  2000                  2015                   2035
KmdETgiirem5-6
years •
Males                 66 DUO             63 000             69GOO            IOC 000           134 OCO Females                59 000               63 000              68 000              99000             132 DOO
Told I               125 000           125 000         137 DOC           199 000           266 ODD
Fnrruiry (“*-12 years)
Malo               151 000           176 OOC           188000            267 000             372 000
Females            133 000           175 DOO           187000            265 000            369 000
Twa)                  285 000            351 000            375 000           532 COO           741 000
Juqsot Sctwidny (13- Mnlcs
Fcciiiks
— _ Total
14 years)
32OCG 57 000 58 000 78 000 114 000 28 000 55 000 58(XO 77000 114 000 60KXJ 1J2000 116 000 155 000 228 OOC
Senior ScconLLuy i.   5d 8 years)
Males               52 000              11700"              J06M0             134 000            210000 Females                42 000             103 (X)0           106 000            134 000           209 ODD
|------- Total 94 000 221000 213000 263 00C 420 000
—Tota l po pul anon
1 630 000        2O29GCW        2 236 000        J Ml DOO         4 501
TAMS-ULG IJaro-Akobo River Basin Integrated DevclopiMnl Master Plan
3A-49SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASp^
Table 34 b 1985 - 2035 Evolution Of Project Area’s Number Of School A Population, By Type Of Resident
Year
• LklLtxarrit
Kindergarten/5-6
years)
1985                1995                2000                  2015
Males
Females
Total
3 378 6 134 7812 11486 19 842
3 503 6 062 7 712 11 320 19 494
6 881 12196 15 524 22 806 39 335
Pnmarv (7. [2 rears)
Males 9497 13 385 19 366 30 837 55 925 Females 9 956 13 220 19 173 30 486 55 183 Total 19453 26 605 38 539 61 323 111 108
Junior Secondary (13- Males
Females
Total
14 scars)
2 852              3 395               5 026               9 565               17 679 2918               3 590              4 963               9 495               17 426 5 770              6 785               9 989              19 030              35 105
Senior Secondare (15-18 years)
Males 5044 7 341 8 094 19 084 35 312 Females 4 856 7515 7 840 18641 34 338
Total
$900              14 856            15 934            38 781              6Q
Total population                107 827          182 503           225019           389 309            778 599
en^LnAnrr num^>?rs re*®l'n8 t0 an> category, one is able to derive percentages of the
d 'z            population. Such percentages (relating to a specific year, to\ specific wereda'tn'1    'nr   a    SPec'^1?   “IeSor>   of   child)   may   be   applied   to   anv   corresponding ucreda s population m order to estimate the theoretical needs for school equipment
TAMS-ULG Biro-Akobo Rncr Buio Integrated Development Mart er Plan
3A - 50^^ecqnomics______________
5EED FOR FURTHER STUDIES
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
ated several times ^is report, the knowledge of population structure and dynamics 
ilS fairly po° ’ parti
r
cU larh on a basis, mainly because the 1994 census data were not
^Tased Before carrying out any additional study, it is important to assess this work, and to
the assumptions about the past evolution as well as about the future For this, much informal is required. mainly to give someone rhe possibility of confirming or reorienting
our analysis
Let us  keep in mind that, before trying to think  of the future, the most important is  to understand the past evolution- the population dynamics as a whole, and also its components in order to identify' the part of it which is predictive of future - in other words, to separate (he long trend from potential disruptive factors
The following is required to develop further work on population in the Project Area
2 All results of the 1994 census relating to the 4 Regions concerned by the Project .Area, in order to check the population numbers by wereda (cartographic numbers must be considered as rough estimates, with possible major local discrepancies), but also the structure of the population (sex ratios, education and economic characteristics) and the components of the natural increase (fertility and mortality, as well as migration)
Z  Additional  information  about  refugees  and  resettled  people,  in  order  to  be  able  to separate in each wereda the components of the growth rate, i e natural increase and migration  (composed,  in  fact,  of  2  flows,  the  classic  rural  to  urban  out-migration movement,  and  the  artificial  surge  of  refugees  and  resettled  people  towards  the weredas)
i Part of the information is probably existing somewhere in the Project .Area, either in regional  offices  (governmental  administration  offices  or  UNHCR)  or  in  local  offices (wereda offices, local authorities, local people).
-    Additional information about present land use and its past evolution (1984 - 1995) in the Project Area, in order to be able to carry out a consistent density analysis: to which extent land, soil and forest degradation was due to an objective situation (for example: human  or  animal  over-population,  or  both),  and/or  to the  behaviour  of  new'  comers (refugees and resettled people) taking less into consideration the future of the region than the indigenous people
-- Specific information about morbidity and mortality in the Project Area, to be able to Propose a more accurate scheme for mortality transition in the area This would include an analysis on a local level (at least zonal level) of
' the health activities, particularly EPI and other MCH programmes and results,
- HIV seroprevalence and Aids in the Project Area, in order to estimate to which
extent the national standards can be applied to the area
-   additional information about fertility and its determinants in the Project Area, to be ^ble to propose a more accurate scheme for fertility transition in the area Phis would
■nclude ar. analysis on a local level (at least zonal level) of:
ethnic and geographic differentials in fertility;
family  planning activities, particularly  oriented on contraception (knowledge and practice), but also on girls  school attendance ("the best contraceptive is  girl shoaling "j
TAWCLG Bum-Ako bo River BiriTimegraied Development Milter Plan
3A-51SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION a
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
J additional information about the (national and regional) Government’
towards Urban Development what are the future urban poles around which th*
9
development will be organised What urban hierarchy will be proposed n '
rC8ional
the Project Area, but also in the western part of Ethiopia (since manv maior°! for located outside the Project Area, but near enough to have a major infl $ migration flows)  Of course, this analysis should be undertaken in relation °n reflection about infrastructures (roads, public facilities, etc )
9
n W’tJ’
TAMS-LLG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
3A-S2cOClO-tCONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPVLATION ASPECTS
APPENDIX 1 ■ statistical tables
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Dtvdopmenl Master Plan
3A-«Kw-n-.Wih.u tiiver |Uui fateJ>ci>Tte|Uiuni Mailer |t»n liojni
Pa^e 1 ' >
Table 1
Population and households by wcreda in November 1993
Killil
/.OIK
WfKila
% area Arvi in
RURAL
U R El A   N
TOTAL
ilk
bwin
bum
Adiualtd JCMdk         I'antini
Pen/
IM»M
Jkir Hslm
(M‘KWF)
House- Penom
I»I4* (Tolal)
rm/
11/hUd
Sex RM»
(M'100/F)
[JrlMik
raK W
HOUIB-            frrwti holds            (Tutsi)
PmJ
1 Wiold
S« Raim
i M’lOO F
1-opwL DENSITY
1 pan.4c m’)
>      Total         Rural
Region 6
Awn
1 , Kvnnult
2 Ams
.1
4 Oidami
5 AiiiJljo
Xl ONI
Tulinl lleglon 6
71J w
4S.J 2 377
4« 7 2 0?4
52 1 1 5J)
300 491
■ 74/2
• 7412
2 333          14 395        5.7               97 4
21 Ml         100 679         46              100 9
12 627          67 119        5,3               949
4 923          26 5R0        5.4               994
2712          13 674         50               99.0 44 636         222 467        SO              W.6 44 CM        222 467        SO               MG
|46               410           2.1                   93.2                2 a 4 966        10 449         7 I                  104 2                  94
594           ] 0M        5 J                    96 6                 4 4 521           2 762        3 3                   94 0                 9.4
00
0.0
6 227         26 677        2.7                Z6/.2                  79
6 227 16 677 17 101.2 7.0
2 679            14*05        5.5              97.3 26 B27           111 us        4 1             101 2 13 223           70 193        53              93 1
5 444           29 342        54               98.# 2 713           13 674        5.0               990
56 If J         2J9 144        4.7              99.7 SO 103         139 144       4.7               9*7
13.1           15 4
46 X           47.4
33.9           32.4
19.1 17.3
27 It 27 it
3ZJ 30.0
Jl.3            jao
\3 V H 1 V^i VedAl
> 1
i
'■/
■ 't
1
■ I TF A II 1 It It A n*___________________
I'dlKim Pcrw / I Sc* RdtbU
HWdi
T Sc* tfjUrO I
(M*J0Q/F)l
!£«■*-
iwlib         (Tool) 11/hUd (M»ioyf)
Url«*n
f«0 !-■)
l Lwi« -
In4&
lycn-rttJW*)
TcjifcL Rut hl
(WFOHJIJlJ
Jfcfcm (Wwfciu WdfcgoJ
J W
4 . GicUnii
3 . Aniftfo
4210
3 2X2
22 1X0
17720
5 3
5.4
669
0
J 363
0
5.0
17 720        5.4               99 4
6 32?           31 906        5.0
6  , JuiiA IlfcTQ                                                        389             1 910       5.1
92.7               11 I
0.0
101 9 12 4
0.0
7  . tawfl Krfbtc
8  Ycindogte Weld
9
a
l
talie WitKTB
, tale Sedi
. l^hKilc
1 341 6 957 52
5411 2B622 53
8 966 45231 5.0
1266 43613 53
*4.9
99 4
two
91.7
97.7
7 976  42 352
15944  81015
9 037  46 430
5.1  96 0
15  91.6
5.1  *9 1
1 032 4 523 4 4
00
211              934         44
115              565        4.9
483          2 461        5.1
579          2 K84        3.0
391           I 253        3.2
3 622          tl 711         5 3
440           2 287        5 2
7544 37 053 4 9
7X9          4 069        5.2
160             753         4.7
00
100.9
94.X
1032
97 3
94 0
94 9
91 5
94 6
II K
19
5 2
62
29
176
47
90
36 429        3 0
1 980        5.1
7191         5.1
29 |I7         5.3
47719         51
46 497  3.3
99.4
7«7
96.5
96,0
98 0
95 0
2     Scyo
3  . HiwiGcitn
S* Mmi
IOOO 1092
IQO.O 791
7147
7JJJ5 375 233 5 3 979
2 366          J 3 491        3 7               97 4 2 931           17 126        5.1              94 4
410             2 441         5.9               93 2 10 357          58 162         56                961
6 650           37 284        5.6               94.0 1314             7 064        5.4               93 7 1665           19 469        5.3                95 4
16 970          87 343        3.1               95 2
4179 J2K2 7 359
319 I 352 5 533 9 449 8 84? B369
19366 9 477
71699
41 605        5.2               96 0 106 798       3.3              97.9
48 717       5.1              99.1 JI2 2X6        5 2             97.3
17 362        5 6               97 1 17 879        5.1               94.J
2 441        5,9               93.2 59 578        5.6               96 6 40 667        56                93.4
7 064        54               93.7 17 169       5.3                  95,4 . 90 069        5 1               94 9
254 739        5.4               FXJ
5 UN        4.5               92 9 7 374        4 5              94.4
12 792        4.5              93.7
90 293        4 7              95.2 42 475        4.7               95.6 .
37 1
17,3
31 R
60 3
14.2
5L7
89 4
87.B
53 3
97 8
61.6
57.7
32.4
173
27.1
60 5
30 1
31.6
14.7
82.4
»l  0
10 6
58 7
5/5
GlmM (Western Wclfcga)
L4 . AyvaGukkid
13 . Fln-ji Muklsni
)6     Iks]i biimcji
17 . YukJa
IV . I.* Io Am bi
[9     tjimtil
JU    llani
21     Note Ka.hu
i-T.
19,7         191
31 4         197
8 7         179
W 8         349
70 7         291
9J          156
. 39.9           190
85.8     1 OHK
-           J 791
96 2 23 2
19 1 42
00
273           1 116        4 8                   86.7                  22
631 3 38 5 54
0                (1
00
17.1 I 3
00
00
44*7/            7/2 /*/          3.5
95,2
6 DO         1 726        4 5                   87,7                 JO
2 453           12 247           J.0                    *03                 4 4
86 8
19.0
106.1
1210
45.4
102 1
80.2
84 9
I'm Kir rn Wrllcgft Arjn)
17or              5418         4 5                929
n .           0
l 545             6 943        4.5               95 0                  106                      426           4.0
o.o
84 4 58
2 74 J          12 396        J5
fljft
J 06                   426        4.0                          MJ J
JJ
3 153 3OJB
410 10 610
7 211
) 314
3 663
17 570
4?JZ4
1 201
I 649
2X50
9T 9           706
90 6
190
101 3
139,6
45 4
102.1
82.8
8/ 2
12 Mvlto
21 . Sachi
.C< rlFjfll
34 6          198
kDOU        111
-
2/4
14.9
31.3
274
32 9
10 7
lllulisbor, Sor &    Grb*
24     IJariirw
25 . Supc A Kudo
7^    Hila
27     lAirenc
JK    Mel ii
29  . Hirnmiii
30     tiyn
|0O        1 J8G
100.0          689 0
tDDC        377
100.0         458
1G0 0        781
100.0         451
100.0         647
18 636          8R 117        4.7              93.3                  416           2 136         52
1 511 40 S69 4.8 93.9
4 242 18 411 44 IMI
439          1 <,06       3.7
13.7 2.4
88 9 38
m           1 DOO       4 1                   82.1                5.1
5*11           23 339        4.5
97.7
114             78J         43
I9 4B3        4 4
89 1                 3.0
99 8    .
10318 46 347 4.5 97,8
6860 30 930 45 94 4
6 B7S ID 154 4.4 94.5
4 276 11304 4 3 88 4 28 ) 713 3 128 4.4 «7.5 92 768 J l?2 4 1 82,3 95
19 073
9 020
4 475
5 772
14 391
7 573
7 646
26 142 4 5 77 5
64 651 44 95.1
34 058 4 5 9X7
3] 326        4.4
93 3
65 1
63 7
51.7
57 0
12.0
74 1
*1 5
616
59.3
490
35.3
58 1
67 5
466
Il It 01 XXLSiiMII
I4.02.JW6-' 2J IJHMO-Alubo River lluin bucgniled Development Mulct Hut Project
KRfil
Z<XIC
Wereda
M
XT. llloMor
*1»jiren
Imuiw
100 0
Area in
baun
______________ R U R
AdjwUcd
AL
UMHAN
TOT    A L
Per*  /
1  Sex  9ai.c
Hou**              Penunx           Per*/
Sex Ratio
<M* 100/1)
Urliui
rate (94)
Hmiac-
holdi
Perxona
ll/boki.
J 415
J’CTWOi
13 209
ILWd          l(M*|0O/F
-)             bolds
ILl.old
Per*./
1 (/Isold
Sex Ralio
(M'100/F)
DENSITY
1
(pers.A.m )
Total                Rural
--------  —  ]
V(Tol/ «U
——---------------
114
J//f
III                       790             4 4
M9 4                       49
64 339             293 369
4 5 994
4.4 9*4
3 596                    16 079           4 5                      91 9
7229             30 999              4 3                             87.4
93
72 749
326 307           4 6
•X5
31 2 41 7
63 9 37 9
Gore
32       Dure                       1000
I 131
33       Halo                                 1000               137
14   . Ale
35 Didi Ulo
100 0
J 00 0
7<7
70*
>433
2 197
9 337
4 92t
16   139
12   216
39    *19
20    153
14   J32
223 269
3.9                      91 1
42                       96 3
42                        913
42                       91.4
4.2                      95.7 4.2                     97.2
544                1 910              36                              13.5                       52 67                      239            36                             714                  1.9
1 744                 7 633             44                             16 1                       16 2 JOG                 1 234             40                              91 6                       5.6
• 909 31 119 42 953
2 964 12 435 4 2 75 9
1 1 101
47 222           4.1                       96 2
36 Saylcm 1000 647 3419
X/t.                                                           2 607                      29 636 Buno Bedel?
312                  I 226            3.9                            14 1
79
2 973               22 322            4./                                939                       92
5 234 22 017 4.2 91 1
3 731 13 371 42 94 7
32 929                  233 40/            4.2                      96 2
33.1 31.4
16 9                   *6.2
616                   51 6
JI 3                   29 6
24 1 22.2
J7.6                   34 2
37 Sigmo
31 SetctiM
70       Bcdek
39       Chora
70 5
42.2
1.5
66 2
772
461
13
449
10 177
7 147
170
1924
I 363
27 999
47 317
32 491
112
41 353
7 164
129343
46                        991 4.3                       914 4 1                       964 4.7                       953 46                       94 .*
4 4                      973
393                   I 199           41                               99 5                         3 9
IO572                    49 216            47
99 X
0
0
00
0
0
40       Dtfti                                    296                107
SA IImiHhM
Modlft
00
I 99J
393
/ 999               4 9
00
00
0.0
00
99.3                         2.4
7 147                        32 491           4 3                       914 170                         812            4.8                       96 4
1924                    41 353            4.7                       95.3
1 563                         7 164            4.6                       94 5
29 373                    232 244            4.6                       97.7
63.7                   61 3
70 4                   70.4
61.3                   61.5
92.6                   92 6
66 8 66 1
72.8 72,7
41   .
42 Sdc
1000
100 0
<47
209
I 940
I 2V<.
43 96.2
4 2 96 fl
4 2 96 5
113                    bQJ             4.9
95.2                          6.1
1 901            4.3                       96.1
I 194                   7 924
Xt AMa                                             750
111                    472              4.2                            94 2
36
2 061
2011
1396            4 2
96 6
J 9J9
26 229
236
/ 679
46                            94.9                          62
4 074                      2 7 299              42                     94 4
16 3 15 2
1 H 36
63 3.9
Djlnimn
69 . G'rre                                      92                 139
Total Ragtun 4
]
23 770 I
I 269
245 250 12QO21I
4.7 97.3
SO 96.5
00
20 917 . 95 955 4.6
00
/ 269
5 902                4 7                    97.5
91J
266 167           1 296 237                  4.9
96.3
42.7 427
54.5 50.5
OrM f/i
>!»>«•>» J im r*r>«Ac*«U II MAN
J lOLlJC-
Ik.M-
i'dlMNU
jTotal)
Ihmij'
IMwM
S«x Rah*
(MM'Wl)
th han.
rata (%)
Region 11
Shducho (IWtfdbfl) IJ . Mo4ii
14 Aixkridift
TOGO 673
100.0 151
•5 . Vriti
St
Kefkho(Kefi) 6     CtahaTi&u
7    <Mwmi
a . thzihfi Tinklw
9 . Client
D (limbo
11 Shewa Giinii*
Si JTrJin’Jso
lOdO
SIS
4 504          71721         48
2 893          13 705         47 16 050         65.145        4.1
MJ
98 2
99 9
90.4
1 186
219
2 471
J 974
5 251        4.4                   92 5               19.4
979        45
94 2                 6.7
9 466        1 K                 104 |
12.7
7/W              25449         /W 77/           /3
/5«J
/tf                    99 5                U5
81.1
9B
74.4
29.6
0.0
81.4
711
17
795
117
0
I Old
2 W?
10 359         43 531        4.2              98 4 804            3 624        4_5            101.7
5 65)          24 992        4.4             100,1 4 800          22 714        4.7               91 B
0                   0        46               96 8 14 746           51055        19               94.0 >6 34/        152 915        4.4               97J
3 656           11302        34             106 2 4 311           1791)        41             101J
25 629          no oio         43                967 3J17J         NO 363        4.1              WJ
I 701              6 104)           J 6            175.9
229
0
980
0
4J
90.7                2.2 00
10 388            44 511        4.2               98.2
61.7
804              3 624        4.5              101.7               417
374          1 576         42                     113                   5.9
6 027            26 568        4.4               99,0
215
0
IB)
0
4 1                   90.3                 3.7
5 015
0
23 597 47 915
0
>3.4
12.1
52 . Chitt Fir da
51 ShecD
54 leinthji Vulii
St. /tairi
Ms JI
55 . Haiti
5f> Kuiil
57 (kilu
51 . rioUla
39 . SbaJi*
60 Timulid(»)
61 . Mihkl Miji
.W A/njj
1000  5 17 J
IMO 503
M.3 I 10)
7479
513           2 705         46                     876                  4.5
I 401 6N4 4.4 475 5.9
19               71         3.7                 173,1                 06 260           1 02)         39                   1092                  5.4
1992 9 779 4.9 100 7 8 2
2271 16 IN /f 101 1 7.2
15 129            60 760        4.0                91.7               591
Iknch (Gbnilra)
XI
378
IOS 7
20 2
XI
15 7
99.8
ISA
0
0           4.0                916
<19
0
1 710
0
3.9                    90 2               21 9
57 702 139 059 4.2 96 7
3 675            12 373         14              106 5 4 647            19 006        4.1             101 7
27111 119 859 43 97 0
36 N5           151 230        4 2              90 5 2 147              7 810        36              151 2
5/7
601
41,7
314
79.0
57.1
57 tf
75
310
0 .. u
4.1
0
16,7
0
177             668        3 1                   97 1                22 4
7.5
00
232
0
903
0
19
WJ          5 591        3.9
91.9 129
00
W,l NJ
I 709              6 973        4 1
9UO            •1 116        4.6              102 0
529              2 474        4.7             100.7
817              2 982        3.7               1048
96.4
Tefal Itrgiuii II
93 0  2 379
0,0           0
89. H I519
13 J     151
34 7  SOT
43.0  1 324
4.1     221
6/73
lUtbH
125              3 £06            46              J 03 4
529            2 474        4.7              1007 640             2114         36            LO7.2
1 477              6 072           41              97.1
103                391           3.8              94.9
5 212           2/ J56         41            105.9
98 944 415108 4J 91.8
a 4ii          36 291        4.3                    97.2                   19
105                 391         18               94 9 6 105            24 747        4.0             1/3 4
107 4J5 431 498 42 9M.6
33              26
00              o.o
2*             2 4
16 3  16 J
5 9             4.5
5 3             4 6
l«               1.8
40               J/
14.2 22.1
I.’ 11.94 2 XIS {I'rnlll
Ok/ 14.02 1996 i 2214
—i i*.p.n, Al. ’-J HMrnaa
I
H URAL
u k n
Killlt
7<aic Wcreda
Region 12
Cambrlrt
62       CiMlibcU
% arcs Area hi
m basin
basin           Ikm'l
MW<T ' tM»
A^mteel
ILWfc
N
TOT    A L
|*m / Sex Ratio
|(M*IOQfl3
Lit ban
r>U(H)
Home-
holds
_____
Per*/
IL/hold
Sex Ratio (M*l00/F)
TopuL DENSITY
(pm 4m*)
i T«'*!2
1 otal               Rural
rmnm
6)
6*1
63
66
Itang
Jikawo
AkoU <•)
100 0          1 117 1000           1 769 1000           2 203 100 0          3 742 1000          9 59J I0O0           J 596
I0OU           1 971
24 MZ r                      16 062
1 95>
2  662
5  504
5  507
2   671
J   2)1
7 311
2t 922
11   912
19   504
42    156
21651
14   1)4
14   602
25617
ZM OJ
156 655
1 994610
111 i 51 9
109 7 9 1
104 0 1 8
5 611                    29 176           5 1                    107 1
3 016                    21 626            7.0                    109 6
5 594                    42 925            7.7                     107 7
24
91
A Jor
109 0
1060
5 460
29 356            3.4                       99 0
3 021                   15 671            3.2
93.7
90.0                         7 2
67       AI*4m
3 493 15 731 4.3 97 2
1 314 21 214 3.4 114 2
6K
tiodcrit
.Vf (itmbtit
Total
STUDY AREA
|2                                                             21911
26 12J
26 12J
102 2
/M 9
94
14.3
108.9                       14.3
34 656 ZI2 776 S3
34 656 182 776 5J
/03 /
105.1
92                    31
12 2                 1 1 0
195                 19 1
7.8                    7.7
1 6                    1.5 4.4                   4.1
14 3 13 0
7 0                    60 7.0                    6.0
459 141             2 169 656
4.7
77.8                 28.6                  26J
IMI Itefiuna
-
lllubjtXM
K<IU
Wdlega
Total
1    -            41 S9J 16 559
17 760
.            75 912
179 057                ■27627
912
20 41 R               ■XO35           4.3                             95 6                          96
75 315               314 437                                       91 1
165 227 152 547 96 9
4 495               20 601           4.3
16330 66 403 4.1
95 5 62
96 4 72
199 475                  913 662             46 10 110                  335 044            4.2
179 557 911950 5.1
91 2
91 6
97.0
417 790            1 994 610
97.6
41 J 43               175 044           4 2                  93 9
8/
459 141                2 169 656           4.7              97.9
22 0 19.9
20 2                  19 0
51.7                   48 0
296            26 3
%
HH
%
H%
1 IIhM iur
KclTa
Wclkga
lol al
541
21 t
2)4
100.0
42 9 41.3
11.1 151
39.1 42 7
IMO 1000
50 5
111
37.9
IMO
43 4 422
174                        15 4
39.1 42 4
1000 100.0
I
(   popuikton   nuf*4>«n   1994   pflfiildww   cenua   (■npui.tuhcd   cMtop^fey   ciUauMej) ( «« tams i an CMMXiC*
n
Methodology
WJ^FXSb.« y-ob^y IWM b™ incorporated .„                KMII, wmb<„ |( „ ,„ ,<Kc
............. ........................................................................................................................
wtblrni /ones, especially GimbelaTub/c 2
19g<4-1993 POPUIATIO!^ GROWT
H by wcrttlo m
id type of residence
Cnutian !ff
Ihff ware<f*i (io “Tiriil rc|iiin“i:al
idwaf ■■
iP^rpc-cUve uf their (pvlul DI krill) iMliuairik Ui the ilidy «K*.
Am    / U MM      | Kind
II I^L|a Zwive
H
TOTAL "REGION”
ItyMFtopaMtMi
PROJECT AREA
DENSITY (pm fluh‘|
llAlO i         Utm                Wtiedi                    Id Rural                Urban          Total
!W4 iMpuhtliwi
| Rural Urban T<riil
I99J PuftilaRun
Rwal Urban ferial
l9H4 93Gr. Rale Kuril Urban Total
Tbi.1
1 H4 1 ni
Runt
IM4 I OU
RESETTLED pop (IMS) I Tirial In To put | ttttcda bum iMf. 1%|
Rc'lfiun 6
Aioaa
917    71 1
• 177   41.3
! l>74   48.7
533    52.1 491   .10.0 d/J
II     0 0
1412
I KutniuA                   w
2 Ami
Mj
3 . JJiictgi
4 . (ridanii w
5 Artififo
Ml
A7. dfwa                  W To lai Rc£i*a6
7052               686           7 731 ell 52 JW            1 032         57 391 jj
3        124 263           2 124        124 391 j 47 372            2 550          49922 1
45 .196            4 452          49 841 k ]      274 «J               14 M         WJW !
M
J16 Ml          14 348        291 290
5 024              646            5 714 25 219          4LM9          29 338 60 415              441          61 326 24 471            2 HO          27 221 13 619                  0          IJ 619
129 M            f 124         Hl 119 119 093            8 124        137 219
14 399            410          14 40$ 100 679       10 449         III L7I
47 139         3 056          70 193 26 580         2 762           29342 13 674                 0           13 674
111 46? 14 477 2J9 144
o
222 467 16 477 239 144
11.71 -527 1054 1565 10.49 1505
1-10 14.55 I.4J
979      ONI      0.79
014                     0.04
J.W      7.44      692 590       7.46      602
6 1     15.1      5 4     154 123    46 0    10 6    42 4
30.2    34.7    29,2    J2 4 17 1     114    16 1    17.3 30.4     10 6   27.7    27.8
I4L5   JJ J    17.4    JO 18 5    JL3     17.4    J0 0
0          0.0 47 467    22 917        7« 1
0           00
0           00
1311         393          2.9
n 77f    JJ J20        IT 9
46 778 23 320 17.1
nR/HQiiw/2J 31
kvm. fmiXLS'Fru.iir« 2 / '
reset rt.KDr«>r <|v* \»
rOTAL "REGION*
1904 l
? r ARIA
199 J PepulatKn
Y (prrt /luw'J
Rtiral
t 994 I 99J _
’t«UI !■
’’•P**1
Jf*
KcicJa
Region 4 (Oromi
Kdem fWc»4cm U’e
5 Hiif* 22 290
16 44M
36 229
22 380 3 363 23 743
IT 720 0 17 720
51 900 4 521 36 429
1.19 4 94
<79
4     GmImiii
5  . AmGIs
6  . Mian Hiro
Gawi K»c6ic
R 31 777
21 330 1 023 26 362] 1 741
4 452
0
34 063                    706               J4 7691  1                  6 676                      706
1 940
* 957
0                   1 910
9)4                   7 491
OM
1.32
0.44
0 17
299
Y<nkcl9|ic WeJel 24 104
Dtlrt W.kcri 49 201
)49               24 69J j                24 304                    349
4 405
22 012
I B00               51 004 J                y 36 101
1 400
1092 100 0 791 100 0
r/of
0       00
Ml M
Lalo Kile
12 .
I) Ifi-iGclan
3/7. 4 z/r-.
CUiiiM CWesIrni W
. Ayi* Crulrto
0«ji MiAImm
Boj» Dirmqi
YuWe
L»U Auti
41 202                  1 I2J                46 3251I            34 241                    1 12)
)9 907
I 349                41 216 I               34 191                  1 349
53 4 60 5 53.4 60 5
32 0 34.2 21 9 30 1
446 52 / 43.9 516
7X3 19 4 61.9 84.7
74 4 ,17.1 72 2 82.4
73 6 ’■) 3 7) O 61 O
74 374               14071                  44 4561
11.0          97 I          61 I          80 6                    5017
30 619                 1 324                  370170 1          30 619                    1 J2«
1 74371
14 071
JI J 090
1! 794
J44 006 fl           U 9 411               27 J S3
24 622                   565                  29 147 45 254               2 461                   47 719
4)61)                 2 464                 46 497
42 352               1 253                  43 605
41015             11 743                 106 796
46 430               2 267                   48 717
J7SIJJ              J7OS3              4t2 204
0
0
1.74            401
2.20           3.35
139         10 44
1.09            <77
1.79 3.00
4.45 5 »>
3.7/            JIS
40.5         61 6        31 t       51 7
40.S         S7.7      44.7            52 S
62 4           91 9       51.3       70 6 102 0          906         96 0         66.1
22 2          190       2X2       19.0
III.5      1015         I0S.7       106 1
134 0 139.6 126 6 128 0
41.2         45.4           48.2          45.4
99 1     10X3        99.1      102 3
92 3         12 1           90 7         80 2
9X9          9X2        OO7          04 0
II 512
52 JOI
SI   117                                                                                                         13 491                  4 069                17 562
49  152
34   MJ
59  414
52  154
M   561
47  266
II5O7O
4M62/
51  071
34   120
01    3M
16  039
M    342
49   4)9
IK      Ml
SU 0S4
17 126                     753                17 679
2 441
0                  2441
59 694
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645
0
12 943
22 27*1
I 201
79 4V4
It
T.W1 lt.g«>a 1
Keotoii 12
4
95 M6        7 125       102 Wl       • 10
IU9JS            Illi          2/4 M4         149
00
00
HW           »>•              roil        29
0                   0                <i         04
ft 101           124          4 221         39
1 592              0           I 192      101
2 MV          126          J 279         44
5 M2          315         <51»»         4 f
4M»                   0               460            II 2/4*»          1 949        14 149        44
00
JTft 413        14 111         Ml 454       11 1
1•
ktMi U»t
III 971      10
142 W       It
0
0
6 205        1
0
Illi
2317
J 114
6 174
y*
21 921 JI
0
411 IM        571
1 7ft»  IWQ
2 201 100 0
1 742 IDOQ
43 Hxiy  »
64    J4«wi>          4
• 59J 100 C
1         IU00
1 »J|   1000
41 Aloho ("J 4
46   rUg A kt i
47 Abftbn  I
61   <)««4wf         a
199 JJ4
19296        2M )W
H9 6J4
Ht 4JJ
rial
I
lit 114        37 354 IM IM
miMo initi iiiijoj
73 122
55 >11
112 300
76 411
40 125 40 500 72 495
491 974 401 354
1 051 310
192 979
It3 629
W'N'jii
ft2l 551
217 906
713732
I <!• IM
477 4ft)
Wl 569
751 201
I 757
JI® lit
■47 244
1 019 MO
967 614      114 741       1 004 379        5 14      26 1
942 520      24 242         364 M)       1-44      72 3
925 14ft      ■ 2 03)     1 007 119       1 41        56 7
1 134 000     115 119    1 441 019         ll*        924
1 541 ill 211 171 1 752 472 5 24 42 1 431 105 41 306 479 11 4 1 76 21 9
1 -iflH u’l         IIO629      1 211 700       1.17       61 ft J Ml M0     J19 507        J IM 307        219       01 |
J 641 434       411 406       3 006 037        1 07        74 2 579 760       •79 691          679 451        1.76         Il (•
1 272 007 240 495 I 513 302 1 09 IS 2
4 501 M0      771 499       5 279 599        2 IS        69 5
’b                S                  H                                                 1.
H
HHH
Wk
W«lk^
TU.I
41 1            51 9             44 1 153          11 7               ISO 41 1            56 5              41 0
1400 100.0 144 4
SO J 14 3 501
14 1 12 2 13 9
15 5 336 31 1
1000            IMO              100 1
511              56 3                50 5 129             120                12 9
21 1              Mi 9               21 7
IMO          100.0               IMO
11985-2035 demographic evolution in the Project Area Demographic indicators
Rural arias
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2015
2025
2035
: S-£ds)
'1
:::a-
1630
1868
2029
2236
2479
3061
3737
4501
file
joalB
819
935
1013
1114
1234
1522
1856
2235
811
932
1016
1122
1245
1538
iasi
2265
H
302
326
349
387
446
555
634
727
470
578
589
627
685
886
1081
1235
3-64
749
064
1007
1135
1260
1511
1901
2426
s+
109
99
84
86
87
109
120
112
Fnaies 15-49
315
370
423
477
528
658
858
1049
'Mile 1
50.2
50.1
49.9
49.8
49.8
49.7
49,7
49*7
rsule I
49 ■ 8
49.9
50.1
50.2
50.2
50.3
50.3
50.3
H1
5-5 1 
18.5
28.8
46.0
6.7
19.3
17.4
17.2
17.3
18.0
18.1
17.0
16.2
l:-54 %
I
31.0
29.0
20.1
27.6
28.9
28.9
27.4
46.2
49.6
50.8
50.8
49.4
50.9
53-9
f^Les 15-49%
5.3
4.2
3.9
3.5
3.6
3.2
2.5
19.8
20.8
21.3
21.3
21-5
23.0
23,3
k ratio
100.9
1.029
16.9
85-90
Change
42.2
17,5
2.5
2,7
100.4
99.7
99.3
99.1
99.0
98.7
90.7
5ige
ratio
1.047
0.931
0.894
0.897
0.954
0*902
0.809
I
15.8
16.4
17.0
17.0
16.4
16,8
17.8
90-95
95-00
00-05
05-10
10-15
20-25
30-35
41.5
15.2
2.6
1*7
42-0
43.6
14.6
2.9
2.1
44.3
14 < 8
14 .2
2-7
1.9
3.0
2.1
42.5
13.0
3.0
2.1
39.1
11.3
2.6
1.9
37.9
10.7
2.7
1-885-90         90-95         95-00         00-05
05-10          10-15         20-25
Fertility
TFR
GRR
NRR
7.49
7.49
7.29
7.09
3.69
3.69
3.59
3.49
2.85
2.86
2.80
2.75
Mi”,n age of
c*._ld bearing
31.5
31.3
31.1
30.9
C/W ratio
0.96
0.88
0.82
0.81
6.89
3.39
2.69
30.7
0.84
6.69
3.30
2.64
30.5
0.87
6.14
3.02
2.48
30.1
0.80
Age distribution               of fertility table = None
Mortality Male LE Festale LE Total      LE IMR
CMR
Life table =
Innigration
51.8 55.0 53.4
102.3 148.5
102.6 119.3 127.5 123.9 119.4 112.7
146.8 148.9 147.2 143.0 134.3 118.4
52.1 52.4 52.9
55.3 55.6 56.0
53.7 54.0 54.5
53.4            53.9            54.4
56.5            57.1            58.5
55.0            55.5            56.5
Coale-Demeny West
(Thousands)
Male immigrati Female immigra
2.3
2.0
4.3
-10.0
-9.0
-8.7
-7.9
-10.4
-9.5
-12.5
-11.4
-13.3
-12.5
-16.6
-15.2
Total immigrat
-19.0
-16.6
-19.9
-23.9
-26.3
-31 • ®
85-90
90-95
95-00
00-05
05-10
10-15
20-25
Births and
Deaths
(Thousands) Births
73.7
80.8
89.5
102.9
116.0
137.2
153- 3
Deaths
30.5
29.5
31.6
34.4
37.2
41.8
44 • J1985
1990
1995
TOTAL
males
females
TOTAL
MALES
FEMALES
TOTAL
MALES
FEMALES
1630-1
B18 - 6
811.5
1867.6
935.5
932.1
2029.1
1012.8
1016.3
152-1
149.4
325.9
163.fi
162.1
135.9
290.9
348.7
146.6
175.3
173,4
*
154.6
144.3
287.6
305.9
17Q. 3
94. a
84.6
153.0
153.5
134.6
152.4
50.9
180.6
283.2
142.8
140.3
1 11
62.5
95.4
85.2
2 66.0
44.8
117.6
64.5
141.7
124.3
B9 - 7
44.9
53.1
147,9
90.1
78.4
55.1
45.1
69.5
96-2
41.1
45.0
102.6
56.4
46.1
91.1
39.7
51.4
95.0
40.8
54.2
80.3
39.8
B9.3
42.1
47.2
88.9
41.0
38.8
50.1
88.4
37.2
51.3
73.9
35.5
38.4
86.3
40.7
45.7
83.3
35.8
47.5
56.fi
30*1
26.7
70.7
33.7
36.9
80.9
37.7
43.1
54.9
24.4
30.5
53.5
28.1
25.5
65. i
30.8
34.3
34.3
17.7
16.6
50.5
22.1
28.4
48.0
25.0
23.0
49.8
22.7
27.1
30.4
15.4
15.0
43.9
18.9
25.0
25.7
14-2
11.6
41.6
18.5
23.1
24.8
12.3
12.5
29.1
13.5
15.6
19.5
10.5
9,1
31.3
13.5
17.8
13.fi
7.9
5.8
19.0
3.5
10.5
12.4
6.5
6.0
40.7
20.9
19.9
19.3
9.9
9.5
15.7
7*0
8.7
2000
2005
•
2015
total
MALES
FEMALES
TOTAL
MALES
FEMALES
TOTAL
MALES
FEMALES
2235.7
1114.1
1121.6
2478.5
1233.9
1244.6
3060.7
1522.3
1538.4
387.0
•^3420ft .-}/
194.6
192.4
446*0
224.3
221.6
555.0
279.3
275.7
oBQ
165.0
163.7
364.6
183.1
181.5
475.9
239.2
236.7
263 ft
149.9
148.7
320.5
161.0
159.5
409.8
206.0
203.8
23d e
132.7
130.9
275-9
138.2
137.7
326.2
163.5
162.7
*13* 2<5fi
125.4
109.1
226.8
114.0
112.8
247.3
123.4
123.9
93 1
70.4
62.4
214.4
114.8
99.6
209*0
103 -9
105.2
7 4 *ft
SO.9
42.2
120.6
63.4
57.2
187.8
93.1
94.7
83* un
36.3
38.5
85.5
46.4
39.2
186.1
98.6
87.5
7
*S-L.i
34.3
48.6
69.1
33.1
36.0
103.2
53.2
50.0
7’ 4* O□
33.2
31.6
45.8
72 - a
38.9
33.9
34.6
44.9
77.4
40.3
72.0
30.2
41.8
58.0
27.2
30.8
41.6
27.5
31.3
67.5
30.8
36.7
63.9
25.3
38.6
26.2
21.4
20.2
51.1
23.5
27.5
56.3
22.9
33.5
18.-5*
2q . 3
IS. 2
21.0
34.1
17.2
16.9
48.5
21.3
27.2
9.0
9.6
27.3
11.1
16.2
31.7
13.9
17.8
H.2
8.4
11.9
11.9
5.6
6.3
16.4
7.8
3.6
5.2
6.0
14.0
5.7
8.3
12.6
4.7
7.9AGE
TOTAL
2025
MALES FEMALES
TOTAL
2035
males FEMALES
TOTAL
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
3736.8
634.2
568.6
512.5
429.4
321.4
246.7
202.7
178.8
165.1
165.0
88.2
59.2
44.5
46.1
35.5
24.0
14.9
1855.9
318.3
285.6
257.7
215.4
160.6
122.6
99.5
86.7
80.2
86.3
44.9
31.4
20.4
17.3
13.5
9.8
5.9
1880.9
315.9
283.1
254.8
4500.7
727.2
646.5
588.8
514.3
406.8
333.8
268.3
212.2
178.2
158.4
144.6
140.1
69.4
42.3
27.9
23.4
18.4
2235.5
366.6
325.5
295.3
257.8
203.3
166.1
132.0
102.9
85.5
75.5
69.2
72.4
34.7
21.9
12.2
8.1
6.4
2265.2 360.6
214.0
160.9
124.2
103.2
92.1
84.9
78.7
43.4
27.8
24.1
28.8
22.0
14.2
9.0
321.0
293.5
256.5
203.5
167.7
136.3
109.2
92.7
82.9
75.4
67.8
34.7
20.4
15.7
15.3
12.0
summary AIDS Indicators
1985      1990     1995     2000     2005      2010      2015      2020 HIV Population           (Thousands)
To* al 0 1 15 24 27 29 32 36 Ma 3S 0 1 7 12 13 14 16 17 Females 0 1 8 12 14 15 17 18
Adult prevalence
0.0         0.1        1.3        1.8        1.8         1.8         1.8         1.8
New AIDS Cases       (Thousands)
Total 0 0 1 2 3 3 3 3 Males 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 Females 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 2
85-90 90-95    95-00    00-05    05-10    10-15         15-20 20-25   25- Annual HIV+       Births          (Thousands)
Total                                                       0 0           1           1           1           1                        1 1          o
Percent
0.0        0.3         0.7        0.8        0.8         0.8        0.7         0.7
Annual AIDS       Deaths        (Thousands)
Total                                                       0 0           1           2           3           3            3            3           0
Per 1000
0.0 0.2                0.6        1.0        1.1        1.0       0.9Total Population (Thousands]
Year
Total
Males
1985
1630
Females
819
1986
1691
811
849
1987
1743
842
875
1988
17 8 8
868
897
891
1989
1828
916
912
1990
1868
935
932
1991
1904
953
951
1992
1935
968
967
1993
1965
982
983
1994
1995
996
999
1995
2029
1013
1016
1996
2067
1031
1036
1997
2107
1051
1056
1998
2148
1071
1077
1999
2191
1092
1099
2000
2236
1114
1122
2001
2281
1137
1145
2002
2329
1160
1169
2003
2377
1184
1193
2004
2427
1209
1219
2005
2 479
1234
124 5
2006
2531
1250
1271
2007
2584
1286
1298
2008
2639
1314
1326
2009
2696
1341
1354
2010
2753
1370
1383
2011
2812
1399
1413
2012
2873
1429
1444
2013
2934
1460
1475
2014
2997
1491
1506
2015
3061
1522
1533
2016
3125
1555
1571
2017
3191
1587
1604
2018
3258
1621
1638
2019
3326
1654
1672
2020
3393
1688
1706
2021
3461
1721
1740
2022
3529
1754
1775
2023
3597
1787
1810
2024
3666
1821
1845
2025
3737
1856
1881
2026
3809
1892
1917
2027
3882
1928
1954
2028
3956
1965
1991
2029
4031
2002
2029
2030
4107
2040
2067
2031
4184
2078
2105
2032
4262
2117
2145
2033
4341
2156
2184
2034
4420
2196
2224
2035
4501
2235
2265a.n>Akobc RivaBmu: Integrated Muter rlar
Table 7
1985-2035 demographic evolution in the Project Area Demographic indicators
Urban areas
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2015
2025
Population
Total
107827
143689
182503
225019
270524
389309
564410
■faale
52275
70842
90738
112600
136112
197441
287860
Fenale
55552
72847
91765
112418
134412
191868
276550
O-i
17299
27668
36714
43128
48241
64126
86154
5-14
32104
35192
45588
64053
79096
103139
141462
15-64
52938
75492
95017
112381
137405
213945
325908
65*
5485
5338
5184
5457
5782
8098
10886
Females 15-49
23008
33772
42807
49609
60424
95000
140946
48.5
49.3
49.7
50.0
50.3
50.7
51.0
Male %
49.7
49.3
49.0
Female %
51.5
50.7
50.3
50.0
0-4 %
16.0
19.3
20.1
19.2
17.8
16.5
15.3
26.5
25.1
5-9 %
29.8
24.5
25.0
28.5
29.2
15-64 %
49.1
52.5
52.1
49.9
50.8
55.0
65- %
5.1
3.7
2.8
2.4
Females 15-49%
21.3
23.5
23.5
22.0
2.1
22.3
2.1
24.4
57.7
1.9
25.0
Sex ratio
94.1
97.2
98.9
100.2
Depend, ratio
0.933
0.833
0.866
0.954
101.3
0.927
16.3
102.9
0-782
17.9
104.1 0.698
19.3
Median age
16.9
17.5
17.4
16.3
85-90
90-95
95-00
00-05
05-10
10-15
20-25
Annual Rates of
Change
CBR / 1000
47.2
50.4
48.5
44.7
CDR / 1000
13.7
15.1
19.6
21.6
42.3
21.0
39.4
19.6
2.0
33.9
18-0
1.6
RNI percent
3.3
3.5
2.9
2.3
2.1
3.6
3.7
3 -4
GR percent
5.7
4.8
4.2
3.785-90
90-95
95-00
00-05
05-10
10-15
20-25
30-35
i-y
7.06
7.06
6.76
6.46
6.16
5.66
4.66
3.66
3.48
3.48
3.33
3.18
•1(35
HR
3.03
2.79
2.30
1.80
2.33
2.84
2.73
2.62
2.52
2.33
1.96
1.57
ltd" a?e
d id bearing
30.7
30.6
30.6
30.6
30.6
30.6
30.5
30.5
Wn1 ratio
0.75
0.82
0.86
0.87
0.80
0.73
0.65
0.55
ji We distribution of fertility table = None
mortality
Xile IE
55.0
55.3
55.6
56.0
56.5
57.1
58,5
60.6
JJttale LE
58♦2
58.5
58.8
59.3
59.7
60.3
61.8
63.8
lloUl LE
56.7
56.9
57.2
57.6
HR
58-1
58.6
60.1
62.1
,35
86.3
107.6
316.7
372.2
376-9
332.4
354.1
332-6
123.3
126.4
171.4
180.4
178.1
170.9
151.7
118.4
, -able - Coale-Demeny West
''^ration
-
r
uui
grati
1550.0
1049.0
1363.0
1773.0
2306.0
3000.0
5068.0
6703.0
S®        inaigra
lleui ^nnigrat
1410.0
949.0
1237.0
1604.0
2086.0
2713.0
4585.0
6064.0
2960.
1998.0
2600.0
3377.0
4392.0
5713.0
9653.0
12767.0
and
deaths
85-90
90-95
95-00
00-05
05-10
10-15
20-25
30-35
5931*6
8222.0
9890-6
11083.0
12565.4
16915.0
20900.8
22003.6
1719.2
2457.4
3987.6
5359.2
6255.2
8392.8
11109.4
12825.41985
1990
TOTAL       MALES FEMALES       TOTAL       MALES   FEMALES        total
MALES
TOTAL 107827.0 52275.0 55552.0143689.0
0-4
17299.0
8695.0
8604.0
27668.0
13918.0
13750.0
36714.0
5-9
16906.0
8280.0
8626.0
17833.0
8970.0
8863.0
27517.0
10-14
15198.0
7447.0
7751.0
17359.0
8500.0
8859.0
18071.0
15-19
11877.0
6043.0
5834.0
17707.0
8765.0
8942.0
18792.0
20-24
7186.0
3433.0
3753.0
16151.0
8250.0
7902.0
20166.0
25-29
6765.0
3143.0
3622.0
8894.0
4338.0
4556.0
16828.0
30-34
6482.0
3323.0
3159.0
7634.0
3677.0
3957.0
9231.0
35-39
6028.0
2832.0
3196.0
6839.0
3572.0
3267.0
7699.0
40-44
4026.0
2127.0
1899.0
6152.0
2931.0
3221.0
6774.0
45-49
3201.0
1657.0
1545.0
4066.0
2139.0
1927.0
5998.0
f -54
2834.0
1302.0
1532.0
3207.0
1639.0
1568.0
3935.0
5^-59
2170.0
953.0
1217.0
2778.0
1250.0
1528.0
3047.0
60-64
2369.0
908.0
1461.0
2064.0
881.0
1183.0
2547.0
65-69
1721.0
741.0
980.0
2082.0
770.0
1312.0
1787.0
70-74
1382.0
512.0
870.0
1389.0
577.0
812.0
1648.0
75-79
702.0
310.0
393.0
961.0
340.0
621.0
947.0
80+
1680.0
570.0
1110.0
906.0
70842.0 72847.0182503.0 90738.0
18431 n 13834.3
9080.0
9287.0
10067.0
8606.0
4565.0
3753.0
3551.0
2850.0
2C46.0
1524.0
1120.0
739.0
588.0
377.0
268.0
326.0
581.0
802.0
AGE
TOTAL
2000
MALES FEMALES TOTAL
2005
MALES FEMALES TOTAL
2015
___ _____ MALES
TOTAL 225019.0112600.0112418.0270524.0136112.0134412-0389309.0197441.0191*
v-4
5-9        36269.0     18248.0     1B020.0    42472.0     21368.0     21104.0  54675.0        27524.0
43128.0     21709.0     21418.0    48241.0     24289.0     23952.0   64126.0        32295-0
2u
10-14      27784.0     13956.0     13828.0     36624.0
15-19      19829.0     10071.0       9758.0    30112.0     15253.0     14858.0  47175.0
18411.0     18214.0   48464.0
24365.0
23897.0
20-24      21255.0     10719.0     10536.0     22974.0     11931.0     11043.0   45746.0        23516-0
2 J*
7223
25-29
30-34 16398.0 8405.0 7993.0 18916.0 9572.0 9344.0 21458-0 11565 - 0 35-39 8889.0 4420.0 4469.0 15319.0 7857.0 7462.0 17886.0 9395-0
bcF
20123.0     10127.0       9996.0    20692.0     10631.0     10061.0  34620.0        18091-°
16J-52
0
965
40-44
45-49 6430.0 3353.0 3077.0 6810.0
50-54 5666.0 2653.0 3013.0 5942.0
7386.0       3606.0       3780.0      8213.0       4077.0       4136.0   16324.0          8268.0
6746.0
652
3290.0 3520.0 13270.0
3052.0 2890.0 6906.0
3323-°
3 56:
55-59        3657.0       1859.0       1798.0       5185.0      2365.0       2820.0      5726-0
2625.0
2 4S-
3lcl
60-64         2748.0       1341.0       1408.0      3242.0       1605.0       1637.0      4834.0        2350-0   22>
65-69         2159.0         917.0       1241.0       2293.0      1084.0       1209.0      3895-0        1663-°
70-74         1405.0         558.0         847.0      1676.0         685.0         991.0      2112.0
977-0
iH;
75-79        1131.0         386.0         745.0        962.0        365.0         597.0      1222.0          533.°
5«: 80+          762.0         271.0         491.0        851.0        276.0         575.0        869.0          308.02025
2035
AGE
total          MALES     FEMALES         TOTAL        MALES   females
total •564 410.02878 60.0276550.0778599.0398860.0379739.0
0-4             86154.0        43412.0   42742.0100784.0
50810.0      49974.0
5-9
75821-0
38188.0
37632,0
96383.0
48580.0
47795.0
«!
10-14
65641.0
33000.0
32640.0
89165.0
32077.0
44858.0
44307.0
15-19
63213.0
31136.0
87281.0
44319.0
33470.0
42962-0
20-24
64975.0
31506.0
83197.0
45500.0
42697.0
u
25-29
56078 - 0
29259.0
2682O.Q
76182.0
39363.0
36319.0
30-34
44429.0
23464.0
20965.0
63124.0
33384.0
29739.0
35-39
31300.0
16689.0
14611.0
51083.0
27123.0
■w
'Li
ft.
23960.0
40-44
18652.0
10187.0
8465.0
39751.0
21137.0
18614.0
45-49
15609.0
8166.0
7443.0
27727.0
14738.0
12989.0
50-54
14337.0
7094.0
7243.0
16200.0
8682.0
7518-0
I
55-59
11537.0
5630.0
5907.0
13548.0
6792.0
6756.0
60-64
5778-0
2592.0
3186.0
12070.0
5658.0
6412.0
!|.
65-69
4400.0
1876-0
2524.0
8925.0
4110.0
4815.0
70-74
3239.0
1465.0
1775,0
3922.0
1625-0
2296.0
75-79
2150-0
846.0
1304.0
2491.0
978-0
1513.0
80+
1097.0
445.0
652-0
1765.0
696.0
1069.0
1
;l
II
!.
S Elation " P evai
Summary AIDS Indicators
1985       1990       1995       2000     2 005      2010      2015       2020     2025       2035 12       1317     18432     26057    31722    39318    48558     59437   72530104689
6         640       8953     12650    15393    19072    23537     28787
r
en(; e
.
6
"f
0.0          1.5        17-0
677       9479     132400.71   162303.20    202204,26    252002.11    302605.01     20.1
35098 50561 37433     54128
20.2
■X ‘
h
l.fhs
lES
Cases 
■t                           0           20         452       1290     1624      1912      2193       2617     3086       4395
0 41 896 2530 3181 3743 4294 5118 6030 8570
0 20 444 1240 1556 1831 2100 2501 2944 4176
ife1 HlV+ Births
85-90
9 0-95
95*00
00-05
05*10
10-15
15-20
2 0-2 5
25-30
30-35
'p'rrt
20
306
715
922
1067
1221
1365
0.3
3.7
7.2
8.3
8.5
3.4
8.1
1505
7.9
•K ‘Ios
'^Cq
19
440
0.1
2.7
1628
8.0
2726
11- o
3308
11.1
3346
10.8
4518
10.5
53 68
•fa li“Bl A 10.4
1636
7.8
6332
10.3
174 5
7-9
7628
10.5Total Population
Year
1985
1986
1987
Total
107827
114811
121872
Males
52275
1988    129026
1989    136292
1990    143689
1991    151204
1992    158824
1993   166569
1994   174456
1995   182503
1996     190721     94958      95763
55923       58888
59588       62283
63286      65740
67032      69260
70842      72847
74705      76499
78610      80214
82574      83995
86612      87844
90738      91765
Females
55552
1997     199099        99262
1998     207620      103642
1999     216265      108091
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
225019 233801 242622 251602 260863 270524 280525 290787 301399 312451 324034 336105 348603 361593 375140 389309 404081 419414 435334 451870 469049 486976 505632 524861 544505 564410 584636 605287 626271 647497 668872 690458 712315 734353 756478 778599
112600
117131
121687
126330
131118
136112
141281
146585 152069 157780 163762 169993 176441 183143 190131 197441 205061 212970 221182 229714 238582 247840 257478 267414 277568 287860 298321 309003 319862 330851 341924 353112 364446 375879 387366 398860
99837 103977 108174 112418 116669 120933 125272 129744 134412 139245 144203 149330 154672 160273 166113 172162 178450 185009 191868 199020 206445 214153 222157 230468 239136 248155 257447 266938 276550 286315 296284 306409 316646 326948 337346 347870 358474 369112 379739^■economics
ASNEX 3B S0CT0-ETHN1C GROUPS ANALYSIS
ANNEX 3B
SOCIO-ETHNIC GROUPS ANALYSIS
TAms-ULG Baro-Akobo River Buin Integrated Development Muter Planr■frj rj
s
orK’^°l°21--
ANNEX 3B S0C1O-ETHN1C GROUPS ANALYSIS
CONTENTS
^onucTTON................. ..................
, LLAim ofc vf - <fe study
Studv ................... •
cessment of available data..............
2. A:
2.1 2.: 2.3
4 5
2.6 2.7
Field Survey 
.......... .....................................
General Observations Group Identities
Staple Food for Subsistence perceptions of Wealth
..........
Gender. Agriculture and the Domestic Economy Traditional Social Networks
3 major ETHNIC grol PS of the area .
3 1 Introduction ......................... ....................... .............. 3,2 index of ethnic groups
4.   ANALYSIS by region
4.1 Lowlands.....................................................................
4J J Amtak....... ..............................................................
4.1.2    ThcNuer..................................................
4.1.3    Ethnic Tensions,............................................ .. 4 2 Highland Forest and Escarpment
4.2.1    Bench ......................... 4 2.2    Kefa
42.3
4.2.4
4.2.5
The Majanger............. The Tishana Me ‘en:
Sheko.......
43 Open Woodlands and Farmland
4.3.1    Keficho
4.3.2    Oromo......................,.......................................
4.3-3 She tacho (Mocha).........................................................
5.   priorities by sector
• Small
Holder Agriculture...............
...................................... .....................
.
Agricultural intensificatio
n and labour shortage.
Foo
d Security. Nutrition and
Communal Labour.
.............................
................................................... ...
■+
s -j *’ * Mrrfcrr/yy of foodstuffs and the domestic economy................. Livestock
5-4 r
5     Tk 
Forestry and Protection of the Catchment
........
’“■** -ClVLCdlC
■ - The Impacts of NGO'
I's 
6 lCt\yCLLSlONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
62     ater Resources’ Hydrology, Irrigation and Flood Control......................
63
H
65
66
....................... ............................................ ..................... ai «r Supply and Sanitation
Fisher^ ^esOurces and Agriculture......................     ................ ............ -■
6.7 Agro-p orest rv ..........................................................................................
Wildlife. ...
...............................................
Purism.................................. *......
....................
TAMS-CLG Baro-Akflbu River Basin Integrated Development Muter Plan
3B-iANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHNIC GROIfs AN
OC1O-F.COSOM1CS
6 8 Impact of Refugee Populations
6 9 Cultural Constraints to Development....................................................  3l 6.9.1   Patterns of settlement
6.9.2 Marriage................................................................................. 3)
6.10    Trading and Tradition
6.11    Local Priorities.................................................................................. Jj
j;
6.11.1 MizanTefari (SEPAR)......................................................................
6.11.2 Dima Town......................................................................... ................................ -3<
6.11.3 Gambela Town:........................................................................ 34
6.11.4 Masha (Shehcho zones, SEP AR)
7. NEED FOR FURTHER STUDIES
7 1 Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) and Participatory Urban AppraisalI (PlUt            ?
7.2  Nutrition and food sources....................................................... ”” BIBLIOGRAPHY—
CSA ...
ACRONYMS
Central Statistical Authorin'
PllB
TAMS-tLG Biro-AkoboANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHMC GROUPS ANALYSIS
I.
H Aim of the Study
-tudy is aimed to assess communities perceptions of development needs, priorities and Th R5traints to provide the socio-ethnic background for future analysis of development options
:o rtstrai>^ -
.nd inters enttons
Considerable   information   on   regional   priorities   for   development   was   collected   by   the ’Onsultants  While  acquisition  of  new  land  is  not  perceived  to  be  an  issue  by  most  forest dwellers, it is a critical problem in the agro-ecological zones of open woodland and farmland, which  suffer  from  the  stresses  of  overpopulation  and  overgrazing  Shifting  cultivators  living m the highly forested regions continue to slash and bum new tracts of land according to the traditional  cycle  of  cultivation  and  fallow'  However,  it  seems  essential  to  address  the  conflict between  forest  conservation  and  agricultural  expansion  now,  before  undue  encroachment lakes  place  and  the  wealth  of  forest  is  destroyed  In  Oromiya,  in  particular,  due  to  the scarcity  of  new  land,  youth  are  leaving  the  farms  to  take  up  remunerative  wage  labour elsewhere  or  pursuing  higher  education  in  the  hopes  of  white-collar  employment  in  urban centres,  Subsistence  agriculture  remains  the  norm  in  most  communities,  though  more  and more cash crops are being cultivated to meet the increasing demand for consumer goods
Issues of food security, land tenure and wealth creation (mainly through the acquisition of catlie) remain the prime concerns of small landholders However, there is an awareness of the need for fertilisers and improved seeds in most areas, combined with a willingness to pay Agricultural intensification through Global 2000 has proved a boon in Dembidolo, for example, but it is not yet clear that the transition to surplus creation will take place as a result
f these interventions alone Improved extension using video and other media, newly designed storage facilities and more specific monitoring of new seed varieties will in the long
c °ntribute to greater fanner confidence and investment in the sector
jNTROD^'
TAMS-fLG Baru-Akobo River Barin Integrated Development Master Plan
3B*tSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHNIC GROt Pc
---------- ^anai.Vsis
2. assessment of available data
2.1
Field Survey
Field
r --—.ucS 'o-
development were conducted in the project area between Jan 26th - Feb 10th To asses attitudes  at the grassroots  level, interviews  were organised in randomly  selected villages  of each major ethnic group, either with men alone, women alone or mixed groups ).
2.2 General Observations
In analysing these meetings and interviews. general social trends could be observed
• a greats: homogenisation of peoples as a result of cash crop cultivation and trade
incentives
a   greater   synthesization   of   activities   amongst   sedentary   agriculturists   and   shiftine
surveys of the local socio-economic environment and communities' priorities
subsistence cultivators and
’
ownership  of  cattle,  either  for  ploughing  and  manuring  or  subsistence,  as  the  main marker or differential of wealth between rich and poor
Il  v*as  also  possible  to  discern  several  trends  in  commercial  and  agro-economic  development across the basin
A  move  by  small  farmers  in  the  highlands  to  expand  and  consolidate  agricultural holdings to improve food security
A desire to diversify cash sources by growing more cash crops
A   desire   to   acquire   cattle,   sheep,   goats   or   chickens   (even   amongst   sedentary agriculturists in the lowlands) to ensure food security and develop a further cash source
Subsistence  economies  are  the  norm  amongst  both  the  highland  forest  peoples  who  practice shifting  cultivation,  the  lowland  peoples  and  the  Oromo,  who  are  agriculturists  and  cattle breeders  Surpluses  have  been  recorded  as  a  result  of  the  0.5  hectare  agricultural  inputs programme  (Global  2000  and  Ministry  of  .Agriculture)  in  some  sectors  of  Oromiya,  although the impacts have been mixed The major constraint would appear to be land size (an average of 0.5 hectares in the lowlands and 0.8 hectares in the highlands (c f CSA 1995, data based on   a   1989/90   survey)   which   would   imply   that   intensification   of   agriculture   and   use agricultural  inputs  is  the  only  viable  method  of  increasing  subsistence  and  food  security  in both regions1
sunsneal data.
example)     gives     an     apparently     bomogencousXSTX areas md crops cuilivatcd to withsiXftc effect, dCCCpU'e discrepancies maze of land holdings n^bcr of X
Hwever’
,paJTjcllJail v
-
-he xraplic-no* oj
lantJ hoid,n"s or h‘”^0‘iXone
of famine and disaster p>
SH>AR ,ILd]C3,“s thnI 1
TAMS-LI G Baro-Akobe River Bia in Integrated Development Muter Plan 3B*20 0ls0,VUCS                    ANNEX 3B socio-ethnic groups analysis
d towards innovation and diversification of crops is striking in the highlands tn A genera'trer^ development of fruits, tobacco, wild coffee and oil seed as cash crops for
* l aim of such activity seems to be to improve subsistence and acquire cash for
petty 
no t the accumulation of surpluses, however Grain crops and other staples
con5Umcr   gC^|[v   sold  for  cash  by  subsistence  farmers  with  smallholdings  uniess  there  is  an
ire not «ene^
urgent need
security is paramount
Tcfen ares  where the Bench shifting cultivators  live, specific  cash crops  not
[j;  the  >  1
jj
niitr t on
are   sold  to  buy  consumer  goods.  Oromo  farmers  in  Wollcga.  however,
j-’itca. w              ^ejr cash Crop (maize) at harvest, despite the tow selling price, because of
iie t°rce on^cant losses from weevils (Teff the staple, is stored instead, as it is less
11 b?e to pest attack). In this instance, the inability of Oromo farmers to improve storage
and fight pests has forced them into a non-economic option The priority must be to
facilities ® robjeraS since such a situation makes it difficult for farmers to produce
pluses, improve their cash base or move beyond subsistence
Fne presence of large private and state coffee plantalions  in the highlands, which have exited since the development of the coffee industry in the 50's, currently provide a source of daily  wane for local and migrant labour. It is  noteworthy  that in these areas, grains  are mported^in rather than grown As a result of the trade boom stimulated by the sale of coffee. ±e resettlement of highlanders  into the region, and the increase in the number of migrant labourers, a greater homogenisation of peoples and economies appears to be taking place. In the SEPAR region in particular, with more middle-men bringing consumer products  for sale :n exchange for cash crops (coffee, honey, spices and to a lesser degree, fruit crops), it seems dcirthat commerce will intensify along with demands for a more cash-oriented economy
2-3 Group Identities
A greater synthesis of lifestyles and sedentary cultivators and the slash an sedentarization. the Majanger, in panic , begun to grow fruit trees, a source P .
•   •   •   k   »tcn   evolved   between   the   traditional a “JtunSts. In the movement towards
^tled in the forest near to town
also a sign of perm
of
ma ze and sorghum
i
Correspondingly, amongst the Anuak, t« a the breeding of goats and chickens,
supplemented by cultivation of mango, P P -
a   aa
their value as sources of convertible capital
** x/aiariCier have not changed other ace - cultivator Me en However, the
their lifestyle as they still do not keep cattle, like the numbers of chickens and goats kept by both group
been adopted as a cash crop by small farmers in the Pnvate development of the coffee market on a
only been grown as a staple crop by the Majanger
a marker of the trend towards a more homogenised cul
At die same time, coffee regions as an expression
apparent y
^ee decades (Tippett
.
tn south-westem g «
^, desire to respond to the
^ ability to change reveals even the rn0Sl_
n  wer
„'   fb] groups
nt
^ket and assimilate the cultural influence of mo v p
^  he quest for
15 Was notedf ^Teater disposable cash, it is possible that a conflict may develop in the future
^ sfl and the maiOrE t^8n rw'entV Vcais ag° in the Kefa region) between the drive to acquire
rcdtlle ^’graiio/11^31^ °f 3 ba^ance<^ diet (Orent 1970) The struggle could be exacerbated
bced access 
‘ abour outside traditional settlements, and the result would be the
"
Women (the main cultivators and domestic producers) to agricultural inputs
- 'IILG BaroAkobo River Basin integrated Development Master Plan
3B-3SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHNIC GROIIK *< ----------------------------------------------- —
and markets This could be serious in the event of a famine or drought, particularly the most vulnerable groups, the non-cattie breeders.
2.4 Staple Food for Subsistence
^ngj.
In these subsistence cultures of the highland region and the lowlands, the mai source is grains (maize and sorghum), supplemented by tubers, ensete and pod- nUInt*Oni- the southern highlands From this grain, horde (a grain beer made from maize)?-; U women which will then be drunk to make work more pleasurable on comm'S
projects, to celebrate feasts and market days and simply fill the stomach In cultural? *°rk is critical both to the pnnciple of reciprocal labour exchange and the communal l 11
but it also has a nutritional role
31 Work
Gambelans say of themselves that they "drink food" in the form of beer The Majanger (who are shifting cultivators) say the same In ecological terms, grain beer may be seen as a way of converting raw maize to digestible maize without the need for cooking and the consumptive use of an energy source like firewood In ethnically homogeneous cultures, the cultivation of grain for subsistence and the preparation of beer are both economically and socially strategic for the community In light of the policy of agricultural intensification and the trend away from communal labour pools to waged labour, however, grain beer should be seen as a socio economic  incentive to agricultural production which would probably  cease to exist if subsistence cultivation is transformed into capital intensive farming
2.5 Perceptions of Wealth
Though ethnic groups with varying agro-ecological livelihoods are cultivating more diverse crops for greater prosperity, the major differential between groups in terms of capital reserv es and resources remains cattle Amongst the highland Oromo, cattle are regarded as essential for ploughing and fertilising the land and wealth is measured in terms of cattle owned In populous urban centres, a retail market for meat has also developed which will promote ever more cattle breeding amongst those who have access to grazing and are in easy reach of towns
1 he same prestige and wealth accrue ■              ■
combined  with
blood)  constitutes  the  m  e   ow    N’uer  As  cattle-breeders,  milk  (often
pastoralists only have access to small              coipP°nenI °f the Nuer diet These agro
crops In times of drought or famine th*,ounts 01 cultivable land on which to grow cereal
survive   Within   the   lowlands   cattle   ~
re ancc
“
on     enables   the   Nuer   populations   to
agriculturist  Anuak  alike  as  the  overwh^lm^61^  ^oth   the   cattle-breeding  Nuer  and  the
the Nuer, their adversaries are cash rich a
resotJrce From the Anuak perspective,
are undercapitalised, thev are oarticuhrk? >    ' 5C poor The facl 1S ,haI as the Anuflk
by unseasonable and unreliable rainfall ncrab,e t0 the risk of drought and famine caused ecological niche by  no: over exDloitino ,?0U8h they  are well adapted to their particular substantial reserves  and convertible catX th rcsourccs of the th«Y lack ,h C
.
food shortages 
• e Nuer derive from cattle herding to withstand
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan. 0cio-ecOP,'oM,C- -
ANNEX 3B soclo'ETBNIC groups analysis
Gender- Agriculture and the Domestic Economy
nroductivity of mral women in Ethiopia is currently under great stress due to the
T* P ties women face tn managmg the multipie demands of an agricultural role an
-ic role and a domestic role Throughout our survey, two interventions were
ec0 ^entlv requested water points and gram mills. These time and energv-savmg devices 
tacibiating their tripartite role.
, he    moment   the   effectiveness   of   the   Ethiopia   institutions   currently   promoting   development r  >  rural  women  is  open  to  question  Women  have  limited  access  to  productive  resources 
°ch  as  livestock,  credit  or  extension  services  though  it  is  envisaged  that  under  the  revitalised Service  Co-operative  scheme  and  through  the  PA’s,  women  should  become  able  to  receive credit earmarked for women’s on-farm and off farm activities
IFAD: has  noted that it is  viLal to enhance the productive role of women as  the major food producers  in des  eloping countries  and the ones  who generate a large part of the family's  cash income (1993:15). A rural poverty  mapping survey  (conducted as  pan of the study) identified the impoverished state of rural women, often traumatised through war (in addition to small land holdings  and overcrowding) as  one of the pnmary  factors  contributing to the state of poverty  in Ethiopia In Gambela region in particular, the number of widow heads  of households  is  staggeringly  high as  a result of the continuous  decades  of war in the region iGambela Needs  Assessment Survey. 1993.). In many  polygamous  households  of the highland regions  of the Baro-.Akobo basin, women are responsible for the cultivation of field crops  once the land has  been cleared and felled The implications  of intensification should be considered separately  by  planners  in situations  where people cultivate land communally (eg. Anuak) as distinct from communities in which women solely cultivate cleared plots
In the IFAD study, several specific recommendations were made to rectify this situation
First, post- production processing should be considered as pan of the farm system and
taken into account in terms of labour and rime needed as this sector is usually dealt with
by women
Secondly, the transition from subsistence to surplus means reversing the traditional
biases which favour the urban over the rural sector and cash crops over food crops 
through the provision of interventions like grain mills and collective woodlots,
alternative sources of water, and appropriate technology for food processing
Thirdly, women must be given rights to land tenure and access to credit and
Fourth, there should be planning for agricultural development with women
. op,he   gender   division   of   labour   in   the   Basin   amongst   ethnic   groups,   both   highland and    ,and    the    close    involvement    of    women    in    crop    cultivation,    production,    transport
future
^e implications of these recommendations should form the basis for the “ynamic planning of interventions through Participatory Rural Appraisal.
L A orld Rural poverty - A profile for Africa
TAMS-ULG Buro-Akobo River Busin Imegruied Development Master Plan
JB-5SOCIO-ECONOMICS ANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHMC GROIpq
--------------------------------------------------
2.7 Traditional Social Networks'
Traditional social organisations are directed to mutual support without which ind' - a hardly survive in their community They could be considered as a fonn of social-als and social security. Different types of mutual support coexist in the rural areas the
are the most common in the country and in the Basi n
« Amba » or « Debo »: organised by a group of men or women to carry out a building a house, ploughing a field or decorticating ensete This support organisa^ *
’
also be used as resources pooling mechanism where the contributions of each member^ T made available to anyone when needed (community- loan)
«Idir». is one of the mostly spread traditional social institutions It provides various k of support to members in times of death and mourning. For that purpose month contributions are deposited in the hands of elected elders
Can •*
,*
«Iqub » is  a traditional forced savings  scheme where members  periodically  pay  in a contribution to a pool The total amount is given to each member in turn, either by common agreement or by lot In addition to cash « iqub », women associations have commodities based «iqub ».
« Senbcte » and « Mahiber » those associations are linked to the churches and the patron saint of each member As these institutions originate in religious faith, members have usually very strong ties and mutual commitments Members are monthly invited in turn by the time of the saint's feast day
* Shimgilna ». « Shengo » or « Oda »(Oromo) is another rural communitv's organisation, which is directed to meditate conflicts between members. The elder members of the association use traditional, sometimes very intricate, mediation procedures, to solve conflicts 
In some areas, their role is so significant that the « shengo » could deal with cases as serious as murder
’ Source Fetate Haile Women in agricultural development m Ethiopia. Addis Abate.
TAMS-CLG Baro-Akobo River Bavin Integrated Development Master Plan
3B-6ANNEX 3B 5000-ETHNIC CROC PS ANALYSIS
JOR ETHNIC groups of the area
JI introduction
There are twenty-seven ethnic groups in rhe greater Baro-Aknhn t, - differences, they arc linked together either by language or 7"?. Des?'te ‘heir cultural
Southwest belong to one of three major language
. the ancient Omotic group, (a language identified a - leases spoken by indigenous" &mirat Maji g
peoples and from which Kefana is derived)
. rhe Cushitic (which includes Orommva, the iarwimo . ongin to the language of the Afar-Sornali group L,dU7„ thirdly,
mofle « cultivation GrOups ln lhe
«« Aftc.^c prolo "* Majanger‘ Sheko and Dime
•
S me Ked sea coast region)
related in
»   the   Nilo-Saharan   group   which   spans   both   the   languages   of   the   indigenous   Bertha   (or Benshangul),   Gumixz,   Udtik,   Anfillo   and   Mao   of   the   Northern   regions   of   the   basin   (in Benshangul.   Begi,   Gidame   and   Asosa   weredas)   and   the   language   of   the   East   Sudamc peoples, namely, the Anuak and Nuer of the Gambela plains (Fleming 1976)
The principal cattle raisers  oT the highland region are the Oromo. Macha Oromo, Sheko, Keficho and Shekicho. plus  the Maji in the south The populous  Oromo grow maize and sorghum with reff and maize as  principal cash crops  while the majority  of the non-Oromo highland peoples  are shifting cultivators  who also engage in coffee growing, forest honey production and hoe cultivation of grains, predominantly  maize and sorghum The Keficho and Shekecho who live in the open woodland and farmland region near the Oromo grow teff, peas  and beans  as  cash crops, while the Bench and other forest peoples  grow maize, godere |JTO) and enseie (false banana), the staple crop of the South West highland regions
12        Index of ethnic groups
Tli
each e o |IT1~ IS ar alphabetical index  of ethnic  groups, comprising basic  information on 'dcntification'S'^* SP°*ten' nio'Je of cultivation practised and area of settlement for the most sis” general upping purposes  A more detailed ethnographic  description of
found   ui^1    1^an‘,8fouPs     of   the   highland   and   lowland   regions   (denoted   by   asterisk*)   may cr Section 4 Analysis and Mapping by Regions
in f>Uo ate
formerly  ]cn llotlc People who Jive in Southwest Wollega, (Anfilo weredaj and were
using hQ
11 35
-   8an‘
They speak an East Sudanic language and cultivate
are
‘■er'Uiry an<j ‘ ’ ! otlc People who migrated into the Gambela plains from Sudan in the 17th the Baro*^- '^nLia^ East Sudaruc language As subsistence agriculturists, they live
iS ^C°ndrainfe1Gil0, Shiro’ AJwer° Akobo rivers, cultivating flood recession maize plus i(ll Sgiris aick Crup 1 hou3h they were cattle breeders, they now have few cattle. They use
<ln some areas, hoes) In addition to ftuit trees, they raise chickens and goats
r AMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Inicgrated Development Mater Pl™SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHNIC
in some areas. They also engage in hunting and fishing to supplement their diet, during the dry season.
Bega (also cailed Gumuz or the pejorative term, anqilla) are a Nilotic peonl
lived in the Abbay region between Jebel Fazughli and Agew Midir in ° former’y migrating to Wollega They speak a Ni!o-Saharan language, Bega- ts'e and ]• .am ^for- wereda towards Asosa in Benshangul/Oromiya In 1981, their population inX11^ Be&
10,000 as opposed to 1.5 million Oromos (Wallmark 1981) The BCkia are
grain who practise shifting cultivation using a digging stick According to th ■tlV8tors of
division of labour, women are responsible for cultivation ofcroDs while and prepare it for planting
part)C^ P                        men clear forest
The richest fields  are along the river banks, planted with cotton, tobacco, peanuts  and maize though the Bega also grow sorghum, finger millet, mtg. beans, pumpkins, onions  and spices using intercropping techniques  Goals, sheep, chickens, donkeys  and dogs  are kept and animals  are considered tci denote wealth They  habitually  use work  parties  called jit^a (which may  include women) to clear and cultivate, construct houses, fish and hunt and to collect firewood
Bench* are a Omotic people (sometimes called Bencho) related to the Dizi and Gimira
peoples of the same region They live in the mountainous Gurrafarda, Gimira and Temenjya
Yazhi weredas near Mizan Teferi and speak Gimira (or Bench). As agro-pastoralists, they 
grow godere (taro), maize, sorghum and other garden vegetables as staples, with coffee,
bananas, mango and papaya as their main cash crops. They use oxen for ploughing when
they are able. Women cultivate the vegetable gardens and take produce to market while men
clear the land for cultivation and do ploughing, occasionally with oxen
Berta (Bertha) are still called Beni Shangul as if their name w-as derived from Arabic Their
name actually means the "embodiment of the spirit of the ancestors" and they compose a
large group of Nilotic peoples including Anfillo, Mac, Gumuz and Bega living in the Beni ShangubOromiyya and Bern Shangul regions As shifting cultivators, they 
predominantly maize and cabbages, using a hoe for cultivation The Bega/Gumuz stra e
the Abbay basin, living on the border of the Baro-Akobo region and cultivate cere s.
vegetables, sesame and tobacco (See Bega, Gumuz),
Chai peoples (also called Shat) live to the west of the Omc in the very' southern point <oi th*
Baro-Akobo basin (Tirma Tid) and are also known as the 7'id They speak an m
language related to Bench and practise shifting cultivation.
Dime people live south of Dima an the southern fringes of the basin and speak Dime.
Omotic language They similarly are engaged in hoe cultivation of grains and enser<--
Dizi people are closely related to the Bench people in culture, language ana ^ional
techniques They live south of Maji and speak Dizi They are included in the r
development plan for the Bench region (SEP AR)
Fulaia (Fulani) people are nomadic pastoralists who have migrated from northern
(Kano) into the region and are only temporarily resident in Gambela They current y i
the open savannah grassland between Gambela and Itang, which is not occupied by 
Anuak due to its distance from the river banks The Fvlata have huge herds of ca ___________________
TAMS-TLG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan^ECONOMICS____________________ ANNEX 3B S0C10-ETHMC GROUPS ANALYSIS
Zassiands but nevertheless, remain on good terms with the Nuer pastoralists brine milk to Gambeia market daily to sell, helping to meet the demand for fresh 
W °menthe urban centre There are rumours that the Fulata may be leaving Ethiopia to return Nigeria
live in Shewa Gimira, speak Gimira and are a sub-group of the Bench
Gintiro peoples
■  f  •  live  in  what  was  formerly  the  kingdom  of  Kefa  and  speak  Kafana  (an  Omotic  language 5  'ved   in  part  from  the  Bench,  Sheko  and  Mao  languages),  They  live  in  the  region  formerly t^w-n  as  Kefa  near  Wushwush  (on  the  cusp  of  the  Baro-  Akobo  basin)  and  as  a  result  of  this -nomitv.   Kefa   mores   and   culture   have   influenced   Keficho,   Sheko   and   Shekicho   societies The   Kefa   use   hoes   and   other   agricultural   implements   for   cultivation   including   ploughs,   and
■'crtilise   the   ground   by   pasturing   cattle   and   sheep   on   the   fields   Women   cultivate   tubers, vegetables,  spices,  and  process  food  Men  slash  and  bum  the  forest  for  cultivation,  and  plant enyere   and   teff   The   conflict   arising   from   the   push   to   acquire   consumer   goods   has   led   to ir.creased   cultivation   of   cash   crops   such   as   coffee   as   opposed   to   subsistence   crops,   which would   maintain   a   balanced   diet   Unlike   the   majority   of   highland   groups,   rhe   Kefa   were convened to Orthodox Chrisriamty in the 16th century .
Keficho* are shifting cultivators who live in the Keficho zone near Masha (SEPAR region)
and speak Keficho. Women are the main cultivators of teff, beans and peas as cash crops,
while men manage the clearing of forest and the valuable beehives The Keficho are
poiygynous but the economic value of a daughter is recognised Wives collaborate in sharing
the tasks of cultivation and livestock breeding to reduce their workload
Kama are a Nilotic  people who speak  Koma and live in West Wollega and the Gambela rt gion, along the northern reaches  of the Baro river towards  the junction of the Sobat and the Baro. Originally  from the highlands, the Koma arrived in the lowlands  in the late nineteenth -entury to take up river bank cultivation and have since intermarried with Anuak
fajanger^ (also known as A/osengo or Masortgty practise shifting cultivation as well as 
icnting and gathering of wild roots and honey production in a large expanse of the rain
^ Ttal They speak Mesengo (an Omotic language) and are pan of the Suri, Surma, Nfekan
lowl’3 .’Habiting the forest and escarpment west of Men near Tepi down to Gog in the
c r a?tl5 They do not keep cattle and so inhabit the tsetse fly infested altitudes away from
^^-breeding adversaries Some Majanger have settled near to Met! in settlements to
e closer to urban amenities and markets
People, who speak North Mao, are the original inhabitants of Wollega before
Schons of Oromo over the last few centuries They are also hoe cultivators of grains.
TnLrr!Jle llvc in tile Majt zone (SEPAR region) in the area from the Akobo valley south io
’^-guane Also caJled the T/rf, the Maji are shifting cultivators who speak Maji, ar Omotic 
. and are closely related to the Sheko and Dizi peoples
W*S?'"*’ 316 one tribe of the Oromo people iom Wollega. former Ulubabor, West Shoa M r^rd .who speak Orominya They live in hilltop homesteads on the highland plateau,
lowlands as unfit for human habitation. In emulation of the Majanger and TamS-LLG BartHAliobv River Buin Inlegrated Oodopmcn:                                    Plan
ih, jSOCIO-ECONOMICS                         ANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHNIC GROUPS v ------------------------------------------ —
other shifting cultivators, they use a rotation system where two-thirds of the land • fallow and one third cultivated at any one time Cattle are regarded as vital for 'S Undtr soil, as well as draught power As the land passes to the first bom son and then to th*”8 in succession, there has been a movement away from the land to urban employme vounger sons as a result of access to education (Hultin, 1987).
Mocha* live in the former Kefa region and speak Mocha or Mochinva (a laneuae? r i
nt °y the
Kefa) (See Shekicho).
'
~ S elated*
Me'en* in the Baro-Akobo basin, specifically the Tishana- Me'en. speak Suri (a Su
related language) and live in the forest south of Bebeka towards the grasslands ofDima^.
of the Omo nver. This group of agro-pastoralists are also known as Suri/Mekan, Mekan*'
Me’emt). The Tishana-Me'en moved up to the highlands from the lowlands during the
century to pursue hoe cultivation of grains though some still have retained their beehive huts 
in the lowlands As a consequence of their proximity to the forest, they cultivate godere and maize for food, along with tobacco and honey as cash crops They no longer keep cattle
N«er* are Nilotic peoples who migrated from Southern Sudan to Gambeia region in the ’9th century  They  speak  an East Sudanic  language like the Anuak  and are primarily  cattle breeders  though they  practice flood recession cultivation on the Baro nver. The mainly Ethiopian Nuer inhabit the Itang and Jikaw' regions on the southern banks of the Baro river where they maintain two encampments, one permanent and one temporary Nuer refugees from the civil war in southern Sudan are currently ensconced at the UNHCR camps at Dima and Fugnido on the Akobo river
Oromo* people (formerly known as Galla) speak Orominya (an East Cushitic language) and live in Oromiya, now Region 4 Cattle ownership is  important amongst the Oromo in defining social piestige, for ploughing and for fertilising the land before cultivation Major crops grown are teff. maize, barley, sorghum, millet, and wheat, chick peas, onions, garlic, pepper, pumpkins (cash crops: coffee, red pepper, citrus, sugar-cane, oil seeds, chat, cotton, bananas and some spices) The Oromo keep horses, donkeys, sheep, goats, dogs, cats and fowl.
Shai people (also called Chai) speak Gimira and live in the Gesha mountains
Shekicho* speak Shekicho (an Omotic language related to Kefanya) and live near Masha. Anderacha and Yeki in SEP .AR region They are cattle breeders and cultivators of ensete. (the staple food) maize, taro and beans Living in close proximity to alpine bamboo forest they practise shifting cultivation using both hoes and ploughs, and raise sheep. goats 271 chickens.
Sheko* speak Sheko (an Omotic language like Gimira) and live between Tepi and th'- Western pan of the mountain range of Gurrifarda in Sheko wereda. Bench zone. Women farm work (hoe cultivation of crops such as millet, maize, teff and coffee) and are responsi^^ for keeping sheep, cattle and chicken. Hunting is practised only by those groups who considered to be sub-castes of the Sheko
Surma people (also called Tirma) speak Surma, and are agro-pastoralists who live in the lowlands between the Akobo and Erbu rivers, south of Dima They cultivate grains with °e
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Batin Integrated Development Matter Plan„ rfONOlvnCS
ANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHNIC GROUPS ANALYSIS
SOC^iS--——
oriRinaHy   from   Sudan   from   Khor   Amars   on   Yabus   river   to   the   west   of ji/A'   pe0?le    afe     °brief   stay   in   Itang   in   1992,   thev   have   now   established   semi-permanent
but    afrer      l-nHCR    camp    Bon8a      bv      the      Baro      nvcr      and      wlJ1      not      retum      ,0      Sudan    in      lhe
^ Jen0
s
’ n    eSttmate<i   camp   population   is   17,000   )   The   Uduk   are   a   Nilotic   people   who
^'ar fuhire. <The * As  a result of their rime in Sudan and interactions  with the Fulata
rB cti?e    a^CU     ^Arabic   as   well   as   their   own   Nilo-Saharan   language   Since   they   have   been
Lople d*y  sPea \jjtjvate thev  are compelled to survive on main provided by  UNHCR By 
little land to C
they   are   able   to   buy   other   foods   and   consumer   goods   They   are   keen
filing   cooi<J"growing   sticks   and   trained   saluki   dogs   to   catch   game   and   as   they-   enjoy   fish,
nuntertr uSin* .
;
hf Uduk huy the hugeh
Nile oerch on a wholesale basis from local Anuak fishermen
mauve   fuel   source   so   women   are   forced   to  walk  long  distances  for  firewood There    is310      amuCh    of      thc       forest       has    been    depleted    over    time    Women    also    collect m  this  area  /  s    ms    barks.  and  fruits  from  the  forest  to  supplement  the  family  diet  and  are wild    roots,    mu*    ina      ^d    transporting    goods    in    general    The    Uduk    are    suspicious    of responsible              . ~'tTadine is an honourable activity, as a result of which, they have not
^elopS   any   interest   in   entrepreneurship.   .As   with   the   Bega,   the   Uduk   do   not   pav   bride- wealth
TAMS-ULG Banj-Akobo River Basin integrated Development Master Plan
3B-11SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHNIC GROUPS an
a1 y
4.
ANALYSIS BY REGION
4.1 Lowlands
4.1.1   Anuak
The Anuak  are traditional agriculturists  who have taken advantage of their proximity  to •.;> Baro Akobo, Gilo and Shiro rivers to cultivate flood recession crops in addition to a rainfed plot Living above the levee, they  rely  on cultivating the same field, harvesting one crop from the rains before the river floods and one after the flood recedes, according to Osterland (1980) As  sedentary  cultivators  with no cattle, however, the Anuak  remain the most conservative and vulnerable of groups  in the lowlands, with little evidence of change in lifestyle despite their shrinking resource base Due to the pressures of modem life, they are enuaeed in cultivating more fruit crops, selling fish, foraging for wild plants  to sell and artisanal gold mining to supplement their cash needs .Amongst the capital-poor Anuak, canle are not kept and therefore the bnde-pnee is  calculated in cash, a commodity  difficult to acquire .Although daughters are seen as a financial asset to parents, the value of the bnde- pnee in some cases may induce parents to contract daughters in marriage for the express purpose of repaying debts, a negotiation in which the daughters have no part
The .Anuak formerly cultivated sorghum as the main crop but now grow maize and millet, supp emented by yams, beans, pumpkins, cucumbers, castor oil beans, tobacco, sesame, kapok, oil seed and fruit crops (bananas, mangoes and papavas) According to the division of labour .Anuak  women are responsible for cultivation, collecting, and preparing food while men dear and prepare land, occasionally selling locally grown tobacco and snuff Both men and women enjoy leisure together in the communal area, smoking reefers and water pipes and sitting on antelope skins  by  preference, a sign of their continuing interest in hunting to provide for their domestic and ritual needs .As a result of the SPLA's incursions into tbe Gambeia plains over the last decade, the amount of game available to supplement diets has been severely  depleted and this  has  caused acute food shortages  amongst the Anuak population in particular
The .Anuak  are anxious  to benefit from knowledge of modem agricultural techniques  io expand their areas of rain-fed cultivation The NGO, ACORD in Gambeia has developed a programme to help farmers  with credit schemes  in Bonga and Okuna to provide inputs agricultural expertise, and improved seeds to facilitate the process As fruit trees are passed down from father to son, this type of plantation could also be developed if the high price caj be sustained Small-scale imgation using portable diesel-operated pumps could ensure food security in the lowland plains if they were cost-effective and a local market was created tor produce However, the current disincentiv e to grow strain created by the surfeit of food aid m the region would have to be curbed
According to women, particularly those living in remote villages, grinding mach’"^ y
1e
maize are critically needed for beer production since hand pounding is too labour mt and beer parties are still the foundation for collective agricultural labour.
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo Rher Basin Integrated DeYdopment Master Plan. rroNOMlcs
ANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHNIC GROUPS ANALYSIS
——
nre pie-etninently cattle-breeder? but they also cultivate flood recession maize and supplement their diet of milk and blood These cattle are jointly owred by 
suf^11 .□ a gon may 'borrow' cattle front his father to pay the bride-pnee They coexist as 
a p| acin£ cattle in a common kraal in the centre of their settlement They aiso
1 c °iIeCt'ach other m times of difficulty with reciprocal gifts, as witnessed in February '96 me Nuer arrived in refugee camps in Ilans without herds and were given food bv 
^chbours The Nuer recognise that they are relatively immune to famine bv 
niriii large herds of cattle and preferring a diet of milk, especially if there is drought or ^Nevertheless, their herds can suffer from shortage of water during the dry season Land
' is a contentious issue with the indigenous Anuak from whom they have acquired :enure river bank land and the government to whom they do not pay the standard tax for NNion They supplement their diet by hunting, "wild roots and seeds, wild dates 
Z-hmfies aeygyptica), seeds roots watcr
bee, bush-yams and seeds of
wild  sorahum  and  other  grasses."  (attested  by  Evans-Pritchard  1940  but  this  data  must  be updated  in  the  farther  studies  eg  PftA)
[n Itang, Nuer nationals  form a self-contained group in that they  are more or less  self- sufficient in milk, their staple food and maize which they  grow on flood recession land. As  a community, they  comprise indigenous  Nuers  who have lived in Ethiopia tor most of their lives  and the Nuer who have migrated io Ethiopia from Sudan (mainly  from a town called Nasir) and are considered to be Sudanese nationals  These Sudanese Nuer youth commonly speak  Arabic  and English not Amharic  (Formerly, all Nuer were designated Ethiopian although they  resided much of (he year on the Sudanese side of the river, only  corning to Ethiopia for grazing several months  a year Since that time, the border has  been and remains permeable.)
The Nuer who have crossed the river from the war zone in Sudan are deemed to be refugees 
■ they cross into Ethiopia without cattle Other are not considered to be refugees, according 10 the head of the Nuer transit camp near the outskirts of Itang The Nuer have a social
^Pport system which embraces people without cattle so they are not in danger of starvation ne Nuer youth from Sudan (Nasir) as well as the nationals say that they wish to pursue their
' Ration in English language to be able to get good jobs in the future These same youth are
nn
jejo^011 reia^ i S some of the traditional practices such as "banding" (the incision ot
lines 
wn^SS C farehead) for their children as they seem keen to adapt to a more urban lifestyle ? ducatiCCeSS t0 modern cl°thes and amenities Others, even with high (Grade 9 plus)
'livin F? have taJten UP the traditional life of a pastoralist and migrate with their cattle. ? «c as they described it
^ildre^
have three houses, one, a bedroom, the second, a separate house far the
of numb^ 'bird, the kitchen, Therefore, population should not be estimated on the basis rather th^ Pe°ple per hut The lar8«t thatched hut in a Nuer settlement is  a cattle pen, an acces"11' a lDuse designed for human habitation. According to informants, flooding causes Ullage frr?r°^e,n f°r the Nuer settlements  parallel to the Baro river as  the flood cuts  off the ^■e^on 01 thc  lowc of bang but this  can be circumnavigated without due problem. They ' r,tcrTharrv-Stent^r shown a high degree of adaptability  and capacity  tor compromise by Aspite v”1® Wlth the Anuak  on the Baro, Sobat and Pibor rivers  over the last few decades ^Petiijnp, ^ad:LlQnai enmities  common to cattle herders  and agriculturists  and the bitter
^^^I'-laden river banks
1  NMS-VLG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated D inch pm ent Master Plan
3B-13SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHNIC GROITpc
--------------------------------- - --------- ——
The pastoral Nuer are not in favour of sedentarization because they think it will k*
of the potentiality of the land to support life, then "all the land" will not be used ° Wastcfu| used now. for summer pastures and flood recession cultivation both. That is fo/* 'S theirs is an eminently practical use of both types of land for gaining successful ° ,
r
On inquiring about how they acquire land if they need land, they say that they ur S'Stcnct from the Anuaks. a further indication that some Anuak are willing to sell part of th”^
order to pursue more cash-oriented occupations such as fishing or mining The 1^
issue is a thorny one since they lay claim to the land they occupy but say that the a™ tenilrc does not recognise their claim to ownership as they do not pay taxes on the
say they do not pay taxes since the government does not give them water supply in/ ^UCT
that the dispute centres around what constitutes the basis for community taxation agro-pastoralists who do not 'own' land
4.1.3 Ethnic Tensions
'
a *"nongst
There has  been fierce and often bloody  competition for land amongst the Anuak  and the Nue- for decades  Although the Nuer were the latest migrants  to the area in the 19th centurv  they squeezed the Anuak  out of their land in the 1900's  As  wealthy  asropasloralists  who can convert cattle to cash at will, the Nuer have exerted their economic  dominance over the
.Anuak. buying their land and exploiting their ambivalent position as cross-border refugees
Intermarriage, nevertheless, has  taken place between the three riverine peoples  within the region, .Anuak. Nuer and Koma. culminating in a greater integration of all three The willingness  to share and reciprocate gifts  of food has  been a salient feature of Nuer political and social interactions  in the Gambela plains  for several decades  and a possible reason for their survival
Other   ethnic   tensions   in   the   area   relate   to   the   competition   for   natural   resources   between sedentary   agriculturists   and   semi-settled   refugees   A   bitter   struggle   has   already   broken   out between   the   17,000   strong   refugee   Uduk   population   and   the   Anuak   over   access   to   the valuable   silt-laden   banks   of   the   Bare   river   The   Nilotic   Koma   agriculturists   who   migrated from  the  highlands  to  the  lowlands  in  the  19th  century,  have,  however,  been  assimilated  anJ live   in   harmony   with   the   .Anuak   The   immediate   expulsion   of   large   numbers   of   Fulata nomads  from  the  region  between  Gambela  and  Itang  has  been  requested  by  the  regional government  though  the  Arabic-speaking  Fulata  appear  to  have  cultivated  good  relations  with their   fellow   cattle-breeders,   the   Nuer.   By   inhabiting   a   different   and   apparently   uninhabited section   of   the   grasslands,   nearer   to   Gambela,   they   do   not   challenge   the   Nuer   tradition patterns   of   shifting   settlement   and   rights   to   crazing   and   thus   fill   an   appropriate   ecology niche.
The Nuer and the Anuak inhabit different areas of the lowlands for good reason and stiH traditional enmities exist which occasionally erupt in active confrontation and bloodshe The regional council is composed of both Anuak and Nuer in executive positions, though an uneasy state of affairs prevails
TAMS-ULG BaroAkfibo Rixer Bisin Integrated Development Master PlansoCl0;f
C050M^
ANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHNTC GROUPS ANALYSIS
Highland Forest and Escarpment
4,2
Bench are subsistence shifting cultivators who depend to a large extent on godere (taro)
ation as a staple Other crops grown include cassava, ensete, teff, barlev, maize
rJ "bum m»llet’ fruit cr°pS (baiianas- man80CS, oranges, pineapple, lemons, papayas, and
- do) sugarcane and ginger The Bench also cat kocho from the ensete stem and bula. the iv0 ~ ensefe from the root, as staples in addition to gonam (indigenous cabbage) Injera is 
;qU' from maize as is local beer (borde) and araqi. Coffee, chat and banana are the main
crops and the traditional practice is the intercropping of ensete plus coffee to increase
- ?free yields and provide shade or coffee plus taro, chat, banana and other fruits (papaya and
mango) Stock raising is important for the Bench as livestock is considered a capital
investment Cattle, sheep, goats and chickens are raised though cattle are mainly used for
ntuals and payments to the kalhcha traditional healers.
Wild  coffee  is  the  main  cash  crop,  grown  near  the  homestead  along  with  other  vegetables The  beans  are  sold  and  an  infusion  from  the  coffee  leaves  is  drunk  from  preference  Bench women  are  in  charge  of  marketing  and  buy  salt,  pepper,  sugar  and  clothes  from  the  market when  they  have  sold  some  produce  in  exchange,  otherwise,  they  do  not  buy  The  cost  of transport   by   mule   to   Mizan   and   back   (approximately   30   kilometres   return)   is   6   Birr,   an expense  which  is  not  justified  by  the  selling  price  of  the  produce  so  only  small  quantities  are bought  and  sold  According  to  women,  transport  is  a  major  problem  for  ihcm  as  they  do  lhe marketing  and  are  responsible  for  grinding  maize  They  must  walk  for  at  least  30  to  40 minutes  to  reach  the  nearest  grinding  machine  and  this  impairs  their  ability  to  gain  more income  from  local  drink  production.  In  the  area  visited,  (a  roadside  village  15  kilometres from   Mizan   Tefari)   women   produce   borde   (like   tella   beer)   and   araqi   which   they   sell   for profit  but  no  tej  as  they  do  not  have  hives  To  supplement  the  diet,  women  also  gather mushrooms and wild fruits,
According to informants, most families have only one cow, though sheep and occasionally 
?°as are kept The price of a cow ranges from 600-1200 Birr and is considered by the poor
‘0 be prohibitively expensive Share cropping is done if a family is able to borrow a second
but as the resulting crop must be shared with lhe owner, a poor family may i s ■ c of not achieving subsistence. A system of milk-sharing is also common If a cow
awner             Owner t0 a tenant for grazing the milk is shared but the calf reverts to the
° eVenl of drou8ht or a scarcity of fodder, cattle are fed the residue from araqi
15 distilled by women on a weekly basis.
feature of the Bench is that houses often have two doors, one for cattle and e      Pe°Ple sincc catde 316 housed indoors to protect them against baboons and hyenas 
Brid  n
fi Xc<1 P^?enl ran8« from 6-12 cows plus one cow to the bride1 s mother before the dowry is 
^jorta
lubricated by beer, are the main social mechanism for accomplishing
and   WatS     'Jading   house   construction   and   thatching.   Women   habitually   collect   firewood tid Usedu                          wood (albiria schimperia) is used for firewood while eucalyptus is grown
Or construction. Wood is not considered to be in short supply
is    ^PPlitT^8   has   b€en    ^proved  in  the  village  visited  by  Mekane  Yesus.  .As  a  result,  water .._^ d :ree consumers and no contributions are paid for maintenance of the structure
t -AMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basio Integrated Development Master Plan 3B-1SSOCIO-ECONOMICS                        ANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHNIC GR0Ups
This type of precedent creates a major disincentive for other types of infrastnjctur which explicitly involve the community in planning and defining a system for
from consumers for maintenance (e g feeder road construction, community forest/'^ etc.).
The Bench population is said to be divided into two ideological camps, those who co local kallicha spirit mediums and the evangelical Christians Apparently, the kalhch' *** wield extraordinary power are often the same people who hold prominent government
They are reputed to extract a high fee (payable in cows) for curing patients"
4.2.2   Kefa
’ proj^
These coffee-growing people live in the fertile highlands in former Kefa, mainly to the east <• the Baro-Akobo basin. Coffee and wild rubber are the main cash crops plus a diverse number of grains, spices and vegetables barley, maize, millet, ensete, teff, beans, peas, lentils, arum black  cumin, cabbage, cardamom, flax, garlic, 'nug', onions, potatoes, sweet potatoes’ tobacco, poppies, tomatoes, pepper as  well as  fruits, (bananas) sugarcane and cotion (Huntingford 1956) Cattle grazing is managed by young boys and men while women make sorghum beer, honey-wine, milk  and coffee (from beans) In Kefa culture, women do not help in the fields Instead they grow and market spices (cardamom, fenugreek, and pepper), tubers  and medicinal plants  According to the traditional division of labour, men plant the ensete but women reap it The grains and the legumes are cultivated and tended by men
Under the old system, land tenure was previously controlled by the king with the farmers as tenants At that time, the major cash crops were coffee, cardamom, civet and ivory
In this  hierarchical and stratified society, sub-groups  or smiths  perform those skilled tasks such as  pottery-making, hunting, fishing, leather work  and blacksmithing which are considered to be demeaning
4.2.3   The Majanger
The Majanger are shifting cultivators who  also practice hunting and gather honey hunting from hives deep in the forest* They occupy the escarpment west of Meti down to Gog. *■ landscape  of  broad-leaved  tropical  rain  forest.  (In  1970,  the  total  population  was  abom 20,000) They cultivate maize, sorghum, godere (cassava) taro, yams and pumpkins, sp|C£* herbs and peppers with sesame, beans, peas and pulses eaten as complements New crop- introduced  circa  1970  were  sweet  potatoes,  cassava,  ensete,  banana,  and  sugarcan sunflowers, mangoes, bananas, and papaya in village compounds
Although they remain shifting cultivators, some Majanger have settled near to the
Meti in clusters of 5-10 houses, still continuing to develop areas of forest using the tra ’"j?, cycle of slash and bum cultivation The main distinguishing feature of the Majanger system is that they do not keep cattle, a facet of their life style which permits them t0J"frern lower altitudes than their Oromo neighbours and survive on the sale of honey, gather hives scattered throughout kilometres of forest They usually obtain 200 kg honey per Y an average yield or 600 kg in an exceptional year (Stauder 1971). Coffee grows wild treated as a cash crop The preferred drink is "kari", a preparation from dried coffee spiced with pepper, ginger and salt
* See Annex 2 H Apiculture for details
____________
TAMS-CLG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master PlanANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHNIC GROUPS ANALYSIS
SOCfO^L0^--
nne feawre of the cultivation is the gradual harv^ .
4jrin£ rhe July-October "kate" season on a mulch so/ h ° Produce two m ^ze'are broadcast (no weeding is done) on the^d^ Ge‘d Then seeds
place from November -January and foiW' and^-
first'
Manger also have a sesame field, and a
SBS o» with either Mize or so,^ \
the forest is cleared Land is judged to be losing Z;
l?
v are eWted " to n harvcst
* nw,^
one veer
The sw^de  <^i' ? 'n the
n
weeds   increases   over   the   cycle   Therefore   in   the   m   Y    3    ycarlv    basis  as   the   i  “
» .s 3 random and profliga.n process but as ™ A “J?"'
shining  ™,,W
fixed sequence over space” with provision for «          >             ofa series of r.m Uillv*tlOn
c
to believe to be ,0 A
-settlements   are   nomiallv   surrounded   hv ”7 instant to be within a 1Mj
~ .he Mll (s™“
in a
a
'k   °r    rctuni    tnje   forest   ©rm   Ju   ™   ^low
The concept of community  is  defined for the Majanger by  the expression "those who share tie same coffee" that is, those who "drink  kari (coffee leaf infusion) together" (i.e the wild coffee plus  red pepper, herbs, garlic, ginger, onions  or salt as  required) Bride wealth is  paid for girls and girls move in with their husbands who stay at home
A  larger  social  unit  recognised  by  the  Majanger  is  the  group  who  "share  the  same  beer1   i e not  just  their  close  neighbours  but  those  friends  in  the  larger  circle  on  whom  they  could depend for food (in this case, beer) Beer is regarded as food source by the Majanger as they hv  it  eases  hunger  Grain  beer  is  prepared  by  women  and  used  in  work  parties.  As  it  is  not customary  for  Majanger  to  trade  or  barter  with  each  other;  they  sell  honey  to  buy  consumer mods from Amhara. Oromo traders
burned and T* d?^SI0R of labour» women perform most of the cultivation after men have others' dutiesC Cw ,bc ■and, however, under duress, men and women will perform each hirvest Thev  or”eri dig with a stick, plant, weed, fend off baboons  from the crops  and rash crop hon * S° decicJe what to buy  at the market on basis  of the sales  of their primary frink  'honey  ‘ ;’onev  ls not eaten (except by  children) but instead, used to make the ritual
consumer
blades, tobar S j ’V ^orn
Men make this wine while women prepare grain beer Among the °*" ^°neV clothes, fish hooks, salt, beads razor
co and perfume Coffee beans are also sold as a cash crop
With the adv
* frc dispois^l^f
producers (Amhara and Oromo) in the mid-SO’s, the Majanger
tbt,r investmeSSe dlCir Antipathies  to the habasha linger as  a result As  a result of ^ i,;c  cuftiva?1 ln.^uts crops, the Majanger are not keen to migrate often, preferring to ri^ir need fo ,On ,n areas  closer to urban facilities  like schools, markets  and health clinics 
^ rojtirnity  ^‘Station is  dependent most on the fecundity  of the land in the vicinity  The l6l ?S to Prey  Cir ^UtS t0 the forest is  vdtal since they  believe they  must live amongst their
Preter    (o   liveCn'   tbeft    by   baboons   as   do   other   forest   dwellers.   For   spiritual   security,   they r 'tua]s    f   ne^r    t0    their    ntuaJ    experts   known   as   tapa   who   resolve   disputes   and   perform
v?c   cIoser°,r   lhe   COnuTiunity.  If  the  land  is  depleted  or  water  has  become  too  distant,  they _'V:h°Ugh   Ma   °   lhe    foresf   taking   advantage   of   its   shelter   and   the   proximity   of   game
may move their habitations over time, the hives placed in the forest do T AMS-ULq Baio-Akobo River Basin Inregrated Development Master Plan
3B-17SOCIO-ECONOMICS                        ANNEX 3B SOCIO-F.THN1C GROLPs
not move and are identified as  belonging to a particular male owner Despi,e , distribution over large areas (as much as 50 kilometres) the hives are seldom robbed n ' svstem has exploited the abundance of land, the absence of population pressure J ,r system of shifting cultivation though there may  well be significant ramifications  forJ* Anuak in the lowlands
j.2.4 The Tishana Me 'en:
The Tishana-Me'en are agropastoralists who have migrated up to the highlands, north west the junctions of Omo and Shorum rivers in the SEP AR region, land formerly occupied b Kefa and Gimira Bench (Tippett 1970) Their population was estimated at 33,150 in th-
1984 census
Like the Majanger, the Me'cn are shifting cultivators, with some reliance on honey hives hunting and gathering of wild roots in the forest for subsistence As transhumant pastoralists who lost their herds and are now agriculturists, they nevertheless retain a legacy of using cattie to bind friendships and in bride wealth The traditional system of cultivation includes a period  of  fallow  which  varies  according  to  the  fertility  of  each  area  cultivated  However land is usually cultivated for 1-2 years only and then abandoned As an indicator of the success and sustainability of their system in the agro-ecological environment, it has been noted that their field rotation system, choice of crops and food habits have been adopted by the incoming Amharas to the region (Abbink 1992: 6). Ensete is not grown much, however, since it takes too long to mature (Tippett 1970). Instead, their staple food is maize pomdge with  teff  and  honey  considered  as  cash  crops.  Their  sustenance  is  derived  from  the abundance  of  forest  and  the  strategy  of  shifting  cultivation  to  new  forest  when  the  cycle demands it. Clearing of the forest is done by collective male labour organised around beer parties prepared from sorghum and maize and there is no traditional use of fertiliser
iwomoT”0"'"1? back'™   "
l
!   d f’r"d ” (fro™ ’O’ ■"
“
>900
g “} rainfldl “ hishl>' uw'li*i’1' M
the I4»
and  name  i<  n  ,'fi  “J®  .s*y8l)um.  rriaize,  pepper  and  garden  plants  mature  quicker  there
“e Med ’ "
;      ',”2>
lhe to'le- '«el and Tee efrocks,
(ibid ?nP til °X P °^8hing fe 8 ,n thc  re8*ons ofBach'uma, Ch'abara and Shewa Gimira Similar mL. ^Se\C ^ing and cuI,lva,ion done bv  machete, digging stick  (a stick similar to that used by the Majanger, Sheko, Dtzi and Bench) and hoe
The Meen diet is  supplemented by  hunting of buffalo, antelope, wild fowls, wild leaves, ernes  and mushrooms  The pattern of cultivation is  gender-ordered: men clear the forest
ana  Purn  the  land  through  work  panics,  women  then  receive  a  piece  of  land  from  their Husbands  which  they  then  are  responsible  for  cultivating,  they  also  assist  in  planting  and sowing  prepare  food  and  beer,  tend  children  and  manage  the  vegetable  gardens  (which include  beans  peppery  cabbage,  spices,  gourds  or  pumpkins,  oil  seeds  Ind  tobacco) According to Abbink. the area of cultivated land has increased from 0.5 to 1 hectare per wife
ecent y, presumably for more reliable subsistence in face of population pressure5
As elsewhere in Ethiopia, the Me'en prefer to live in clusters of households of 3-6 thatch huts. ranging from 10- to 80/90 people per cluster.
This is deemed by to be the maximum amount of land cultivable by one person without draughi_gg^£L TAMS-CLG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
3B-18ANNEX 3B S0C10-ETHN1C CROUPS ANALYSIS
devastation of active ^population by the Derg 
(hundreds of
W 10 ken even' year " "i l% " ’ households are headed by widows Under
**' n oral system, however, land u> owned by the person who clears the forest and this r^luvation is handed down to the eldest son (ibid ). The wife holds no title to the
ngbI h Ifih she is the prime cultivator and manager of crop production.
I addition to her
r
' r’d id each wife has her own stores. This sexual division of labour, according to Abbink,
d to an increasingly powerful role of women in the household as manifest in the
h3 ’ ‘ \L right of women to choose marriage partners Decision-making on cultivation
"  and ceremonials is communal, however (Tippett. 1970).
^estin$a  a
le of cultivation is as follows February /March (clearing/buming) March/April
Mxnting or sowing by men and women), April to July and July to early September
ceding) Children are required to stay in the fields and perform the vital task of guarding jtecppfrom baboons
Thev engage in internal trading and mutual barter (e g. cattle for grain, goals for honey). Their cash source stems from the sale of honey and livestock, not grain Currently, the Me'en buy gudere (taro) gesho for araqi (distilled liquor}, coffee leaves, salt, and pepper They set! tobacco, oil seed, honey, and produce from chickens. According to the traditional division of iabour, honey wine is made by men, beer and araqi by women Women walk long distances io sell araqi and grain beer tn the urban centres (e.g. Biftu) as a cash generating activity Honey is only consumed by children and the rest (not sold) is consumed as honey wine No milk is consumed In times of drought when no forage or grazing is available, araqi residue is given to cartie
The Mccn are small honey producers compared to the Majanger but some groups do some dairying with 5-6 cows Cattle are vital for marriage brokering as one cow is given after the ritual 'theft' of the bride to broker the deal The remaining cows are paid over time. Economic change is evident as there is an increasing surplus of subsistence crops sold in
.egionaJ markets and the role of cattle correspondingly reduced (Abbink 1986). ^■5 Sheko
ti\k^ ^°
e
name for the ethnic group, language and area near Tepi) live in Tiliku Gesha
SWft- Wi Gimira on the road to 6^ They are 081116 breeders 111 addition to practising
l "g cultivation. As a result of the prosperity gleaned from private coffee production in S^ ko town has become highly urbanised with settler traders moving in to sell
e
farrn^161
®°°^  According to a local agricultural extension! si interviewed during the study.
£
Veliev5 s' 1168 have said that they do not want to use fertiliser on wild coffee since they 
P*Se^bT'(1 is
lhai they do not)
(& is not clear if they spray their coffee with herbicides but it is
Te P' « the wholesale market for private coffee producers Here they convert their o? y CaSb buy gram imported into the area from Jimma The coffee plantations 
Di l Cpi
large numbers of seasonal migrant labourers from the lughJands tor
S ^ho I ?S' in Edition to providing daily wage employment for Majanger, Sheko and Labourers.
LLG
River Basin Inceftr^ I^vd^mrnl MirterFlan
3B-1?SOCIO-ECONOMICS
43 Open Woodland! and Farmland
ANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHMC GROl pc -------------------------------------- ---------
43./ Wcho -mwh0 specialise in beans and peas as cash CTops in adfc,
The Keficho are agn^un used £ the Keficho are hollowed-out
logs. div ed i
ld        mo^
honey product^. The h destnJCtive habit of burning the trees lo bring down the hv,
smoothed by fire To avmd
* a rope ^cn they wish t0 hamst
Co-wives amongst the Kenc rearing so as to reduce tn
they lash the two pieceo» - descend As with the Shekicho. they clear fores fr
. Vpfich0 co-operate with each other in sharing cultivation and livestock 
gain mutual benefits In this culture, tht recognised since a greater number of wives 4
seen as the source rfgreaier food product "n v ’ iecificaliy. cultivation, cooking and child rearing
4.3.2 Oromo
economic   value   of^^V^S   X-on   Unique   amongst   the   groups,   in   the   hierarch,ol
concubines are ’paid' fa ta “ "mJn'”d f“
Oromo culture is characterised by the prestigious ownership of cattle for draught purposes and for manuring the land As the Oromo have migrated and settled over a vast area of Soirii western Ethiopia, the culture varies from region to region as Oromo people have acquired traditions and customs of cultivation from the indigenous peoples In Wollega, for example, unlike the south, no enseie is cultivated for food, while teff is the staple crop used for injen and maize, the cash crop .Although fanners cultivate mainly subsistence crops, maize is sold at harvest for cash and often bought back at a loss due to the difficulty of storage Separate budgets are maintained by men and women in terms of marketing and expenditure. won*- gaining some income from butter sales to buy salt, oil, soap etc., and men receiving tte income from maize
rich farmeT^cW°U^ norma^> keep two cattle while the poor would have none A
techmaue of
thelrL ±'n’t0 ““ 3 lar«e *ea of
highlands and cr °
U P ,0 fifteen or more In the traditional wav. the Oromo use t-
manure in the period beto« ^ or ^unS as ^ere *s scvere deforestation m
which  is  used  for  hn'  °  firCW°°?  TradJHonaliy,  women  market  butter  but  seldom  the cattle while small ho™ COnSur’’Pt’on or f°r Ihe herd. They also manage milking an
—f0*
The land tenure q-stem under the Oromo follows  cenan rales. Under the ""“‘“"S'
land belonged collectively  to a tribe and was  acquired through patrilineal desce* o
01 land was acquireo by settling in a place and by placing honey hives demarcate ownershtp Now. the land is owned bv the government as elsewhere wd
0SJf*
rights conveyed to current holders 
'
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development M*slcr l’,sn 3B-20ANNEX 3B S0CI0-ETHN1C GROVPS ANALYSIS
-ards urbanisation which has been observed since the 1970's in areas like
-.rend t0*              1970) and in 1995, has resulted in creation of educated middle class and
pe>dol° 1 the agricultural sector towards  urban-based employment, increases  in
3     shift
aa
* -   the     cofFec   sector   and   high   yields   from   Global   2000   have   meant   increased
pjjdurt’v1li , vjSj|j]e investment in urban trade and services, with a resultant labour shortage prosp^' .^ural sector This  labour shortage will constrain further efforts  at agricultural -n the a®r‘C^ _
n(  c     young   and   educated   refuse   to   work   in   the   fields,   preferring   whits   collar
t<paflSl0.n S’
; obs while tne 4j j Shekicho (Mocha)
onc aurjcultural labourer per day is 7/8 Bin
in 4
,  ificho  speak  a  North  Omotic  dialect  related  to  Kefana  and  live  in  Masha.  Anderacha Yeki  -ivercdas.  The  staple  food  is  enseie  and  its  cultivation  is  considered  critical  to  diet
in addition to cattle, who apparently flourish in this area, the Shekicho also
coais  sheep  and  chickens  Milk  is  generally  not  for  sale  as  it  is  mixed  with  ensure  as  a food  [kocho)  Maize  is  also  eaten  as  a  porridge  and  used  for  horde  (grain  beer)  and  araqi n-oduction   According   to   our   Shekicho   informant,   people   grow   maize,   ensete.   godere.   tejif, peas  and  beans  using  traditional  shifting  cultivation  techniques,  first  clearing  the  forest  and ihen   ploughins   four   times   with   oxen   before   planting   (Other   evidence   states   that   land   is ploughed seven times (c.f. Ayyaia 1987), Both a plough and a hoe are used for cultivation.
Dee   to   cultural   prohibitions,   women   cook   only   non-meal   dishes   and   do   not   eat   chicken According  to  Ayyaia,  Shekicho  women  only  share  food  with  men  if  no  guests  are  present 11987)  Thus,  diet  and  nutritional  status  are  determined  by  gender-based  prohibitions  on  the preparation  and  consumption  of  certain  foodstuffs.  This  may  have  implications  for  diet  and nutrition   since   children's   food   consumption   is   closely   linked   to   women's   They   are   not permitted  to  eat  with  their  male  elders  until  the  age  of  17  To  negotiate  marriage,  a  bride price  is  normally  paid  (estimated  at  between  2-10  cows)  though  "forced  marriage"  (when  no bnde pnee is paid) is common when cash and cows are in short supply. Children are urged to
young rather than go to school to supplement the family labour base and extended } “ully security system according to Ayyaia (ibid). Education, therefore, is regarded as a
■raiectory away from the land into urban employment. Women are responsible for collecting *aicr and al] domestic tasks while men collect firewood. There is reputedly no separation of
gets and goods within the household but because of the dietary prohibitions, but this ^uld be ascertained
'Pll J-
cuttaC€nt kamboo forest is protected by the government and no new licences are issued
’vater
bamboo stalks may be collected, however and are locally used for milk and pots, cup holders and furniture
1 AMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
3B-21_ 
socio-ECONOTnc^^^l—--------------------------------------------- —--------------- ------------- ^l^M.vSls
ATO’EX 3B SOCIO-ETHNIC GROUPS a k-
5. PRIORITIES BY SECTOR
As  there  are  twenty-seven  ethnic  groups  of  individual  significance  in  th  n it is extremely difficult to generalise from a brief field survey an/ f
ba
However, as  the basin naturally  divides  into three aero-ecological zones- ltcraiure revi^
forest and escarpment, and open woodlands  and farmland 0,*iands. high] *
recommendations will be clustered under those three categories 
5.1 Small Holder Agriculture
5.1.1   Agricultural intensification and labour shortage
observations 4'.'J
Agricultural  intensification  was  not  a  spontaneous  priority,  for  a  technical  package  to  beccw- attractive, large extension efforts will have to be undertaken throughout the region
As a target quota of 400,000 farmers has been set for the coming year, it is important that a cost benefit analysis  of fertiliser in the 0.5 hectare package recommended for maize production be done to ascertain the balance between investment and return for the smallholder, especially  in the fertile highlands  of Oromiya It is  particularly  important as  th is the first time that less well-off farmers are being encouraged to invest in agricultural credit
Vields nf ™ I?0®' f°r ex?mp1®’ tfthe Pnce of mai2e is maintained at over 50 Birr/quistai
It, r « rC quintal per hectare must be achieved for the inputs to be cost effective agnCU tUnd tnpU,S WaS CalcutaIcd locally to be 424 Birr/ hectare for maize)
mflrVAt r C fUIT^n iritencnt’0ri price of 70 Birr will not be maintained due to a glut on the
invest
° rCCS^ crearc a reluctance amongst the more vulnerable groups to
agricultural      ^uses^^'anT^^5          °!      undefined          tax      to      be      levied      on      these      new
already counteracted th- J .“
d abov e
,'
Failure to achieve ureeMn-w!
standard land tax of 20-40 Birr'annum) have of the ProKramme and diminished farmer incent^
varieties or application of f o r dUC l° ack °f rei’at>,e extension information on neW s to encourage the use of amin i C°U^ prove disastroiis for future government initi8tive> with better extension adri^ f Tputs- II wil1 be essential to match distribution of inP”_
of farmers freely n^i i/
t0 be creatcd All attempts to translate nut^
avoided  if  the  credit  based  aonr/A  .q<J°taS   achieved  through  leverage  should  be  strenuo sea approach is to succeed into the future.
At a daily wage^Ts/^Bi^ti”
. !,0™73 'S ,he increasinB shortage of agricultural foWJ*
10
ability of small farmers to cult^’ 00515 of croP production Could escalate and office, school leavers are no In m°re AccortJing to a spokesman in the hie®15
that the current curriculum flndnSe* interested in turning to agriculture A critical p . fl,-
upward mobility and a whj" ;ducal,o
n amongst the middle class is as 
wmte collar job A discernible trend towards
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Bavin Initiated Development Mos<er plnI'
IB - 22
,s$(X7l0'£CC>NOMrCS
^servsMe in Dembidolo as town dwell
^bar semces, a phenomenon observe * ,'nv€st "lore i„ u
5.1    food Security. Nutrition and Communa|
& he Gambela plains amongst the .Anuak there i< u
t
varcitv of labour due to the number of men U headed households When food
ANNEX 3B SO CIO-ETHNIC GROUPS ANALYSIS
(T, Ppett 7970)         °> shops an(i
3 chjo^c food sh™, the concern 
?
compelled to depart as a group for the escarpment fwh^ T*"1’ Won,en say that °f
vnld roots which they then sell on return fb?
(described as bordo. achwabe and               a u F°f °!her ^sistence food i?6 f°r
mihp
j "ger live) to fn« ?
tne Ma a
nounshment. though this is increasingly regarded i
Al] over the basin, however, a system of exchange has  developed in which one foodstuff (usually  a cash crop like mangoes, papaya, bananas  but not necessarily) is  sold for another eg maize. In the lowlands, traditional diets  are undergoing change as  some food becomes ntore valuable for sale than for consumption as  in the case of the cash-rich Uduk  who purchase Nile perch from the Anuak  According to a report for UNHCR on the Uduk  by  the aruhropologist Wendy  James, although only  sufficient amounts  of food aid are brought in for refugees' consumption, it is  said that 75% may  be leaving the Gambela area for resale as  a result of the profitability of the enterprise (James, 1995)
52.1  Beer
Drinking beer has  been described as  "eating food" by  the Anuak  However, beer is  also a sate way  of consuming water Most people in the south west of Ethiopia drink  river water which they  find to varying degrees  contaminated with soap and human waste The .Anuak particularly  as  they  live downstream of the UNHCR camp have detected the deterioration in wa,cr quality  and asked for hand pumps  to be installed The dependence on increasingly -o Lued fiver water for washjng bathing and drinking means  that people actually  drink  very " e .Wal*r’ Preferring beer, araqi and coffee In some cultures  (specifically  Majanger), one’s mttao°r'3^ *S defied "those with whom we share beer” Women who make the beer as  a 'tiills  to b^UStT^ mUSt P°und ^e maize for the beer and therefore are very  interested in grain in Coii° C estakli$hed near them to save time. Water points  are equally  needed lo save time
ing water and enable women to devote more time to agriculture
farkcting of foodstuffs and the domestic economy
gencralp divisions of labour and marketing responsibilities within the basin, men are
manage r ^'responsible for sale of livestock and some produce, while women are the main
0 the domestic economy
OonSkiner   n    lra^ers     ’n     Gambela,   Mizan   and   Tepi   who   come   to   buy   produce   and   sell
to atlend^jQhdS
' e highlanders) are from outside the region, while most markets
the   fuhni   -   Wonien   It   is   critical   to   note   the   importance   of   this   distinction   to   understand
C,10”"80fth |<
e    xa KononIy
|
Btteh wo
X ’hich they Cn produce beer and araqi from maize for saie and derive a 20 Birr/week profit 376 entitled to keep for their own expenditure on clothes etc. Men are similarly
T AMS-ULG Bant-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master PlanSOCIO-ECONOMICS ANNEX 3B socio-ethnic groups
able  to  keep  profits  from  cash  crops  they  sell  (crops  of  bananas  on  the  side   of example).
This is paralleled in Oromo society by the fact that men sell their
(dispensing the revenue as they like) while women sell butter and other Cr°  Mv
p
food stuffs to buv salt, clothes and other consumables 
It is important to recognise that men's and women s economies in most rec’ separate and should be considered separately both in computing statistics"5 Seen 'Ht
r STTlal1 quan(;riatt|-
of
expenditure
5.3 Livestock
"
s °‘ ’nconte
Wealth accumulation in the South west is linked to possession of cattle Amongst the
Oromo. Meen, Bench, Keficho. Nuer, cattle are paid as bride price to the family of the bnde
Therefore, accumulation of cattle is regarded as socially vital for the payment of bride-poet
and in providing access io oxen ploughs. Cattle are also important in providing milk butte
and skins for domestic consumption and in generating by-products for sale in local markets 
To the poor, even the Oromo, the price of mature oxen is prohibitive (800-1000 Bin) To
fanners with small holdings who are not able to acquire new land nor expand the extent cf
their holdings, this acts as a further constraint to agricultural development.
5.4 Forestry and Protection of the Catchment
The priority  areas  of forest have been named as  Abobo Gog. Godere, Sele Mesengo (all Majanger areas) Gurrafarda (Bench) Sheko (Sheko) and Yeki (Shekicho area), Saylan wangus, (Oromo) Sigmo Gebu (Oromo) and the Gambeia park  (incorporating Anuak peop es  )i Negotiations  pertaining to registration of private indigenous  forest for purpose? of community  management will have to take place with these groups  who have traditionally managed these forests  It should be anticipated that there may  be active rejection of these registration or management policies  by  local people who see the action to register "pm-w indigenous forests" as an attempt to extract control of the resource from their hands
In areas settled bv the Me'en Ku’
estates,   land   i$   considered   tn   l-|an8eT   Bench,   Sheko   in   lhe   forests   near   the   large   co®*
new land on a gradual basis ™ 
. ShiftinB cultivators in their swidden cycle deforest
fallow.    Nowadays    thouoh    _if,nvertln8    “    t0      ^cultural    land    while    the    depleted    land    Itrt
trees in the forest and the
d ^lopinS between the honey producers who
Peasant Associations Poliri^ rs m Shekicho areas which must be arbitrated b)
increase ro determine the relan Jo**
Carefij,l V
-  bid down now as population pre**,
the forest (In many cases thev               lt°f access °f shifting cultivators to honey produce. • h igh|and settlers, both Ambani C members of the same group, though aPP31*^ rf rotating cultivation in the forev Or°rno> have emulated the slash and bum  -
s
on the existence of bee forage X°fS Thc becswax and hone>’ exPort '^TTted
0  651 50 ,hc c°st-benefits should be caicu
weighed by both rhe community J /’ planning for the forest
111 tbe ^'borities in determining land use pr,°
A possible complication of any aero-fo™ ,
. deforfStfC
—---------------
regions   of   Oromiya   would   be   the   nmhi   CSt^   Scheme     in   ’he   heavily   populated   an   pfr
land shortage. The prospect of corn^J-
G Barn-.Ahobo Wve  Basin kncgrite/mweiopment Master Pljn
r
36-24ANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHNIC GROUPS ANALYSIS
«l]v used for subsistence grains to agro-forestry would imply that a new source '1 fie^ jj^ave to be found to compensate farmers in cash terms for the value of the
of a ofi^ 7°
^ ceb
fhe    EthioP    E
nv ron
Forestry  Action Programme of the Ministry  of Natural Resources,
j mental Protection cited the total lack  of community  involvement in
p svelf’PTnen mmunity  woodJot schemes  as  a main reason for failure (1994). According to
ptann^E 0 . past woodlots  have been established without community  consultation or
this   study-   '
rfciiving
access   of   the   community   to   their   major   resource   base   Donor   initiatives 
jgreeireni. communiry  forest schemes  on scarce communal grazing land also contributed to 10 estabbs  af these schemes. An additional factor cited was  the ambiguity  surrounding theunpop tenure system "Insecurity of tenure has made fanners unresponsive to
the utirre          pj
arit n
j g" as adoption of these schemes would mean" an initial loss of
Ff °milniral production, for which compensation schemes are not in place" (ibid.) These
crus should be carefully examined and socio-economic incentives created which would
'trse this perception and encourage the development of community managed wood lots
5J The Impacts of NGO's
The achievements  of Menschen fur Menschen in the Metu region in infrastructure building (water supply, schools, roads  and bridges) are remarkable Similarly, Mebane Yesus  has built protected springs  in many  rural and urban centres. Nevertheless, a negative impact ot NGOs' has  been to create a dependency  on government or government subsidised agencies  to provide basic  services  free of charge The priced water from hand pumps  in towns  (e g. Gambela) has  been successful and created demand in nearby  rural areas  (eg Bonga) where people seek clean water
In other sectors, the same problems of subsidy and lack of community involvement apply. The improved hives honey project sponsored by Mekane Yesus failed when incentives originally paid to the Majanger to try it out were not paid and ants consumed the project. In I case, hives were ’given' to local producers and no sense of ownership was conveyed. The
of interest in the scheme was such that the Majanger involved were paid to participate in experiment ACORD in Gambela is working to improve Anuak agricultural methods by 
U OV1 ing tools along with inputs for credit and setting up savings and credit schemes for ^rnen, via local men and women development agents However, they arc the first to
] ne the prospects for sustainable development in the region
T AMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated De^opmenl Master PHnSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHNIC GRor
- -
6.        CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR DEVT.LOPMent
6.1       Vnter Resources- r
...
i
nt
Baro liver in particular the Gamb>
henaffleoffloodcont
. .«l in anticipation of large scale irrigation and dam works or.lht ? rJXla Regional Council is advocating resettlement of nj,Vt
banks and flooded
ffleK (c f
xnuak and Nuer people away fro
Needs Assessment Report. W •)
Xl flood recession crop
XmS swampS alsottouns h« the^so il m^the 2or^to^Somant tobeh
flood regim£i in fact, permits cultivation of a and lhe Nuei peoples, insuring them aga^
perspective, flooding tn the tower
The resettlement of Anuak  and Nuer awa> from river banks  is  unlikely  to take place without conflict Strenuous  disputes  have already  taken place when dispossession of the Anuak  has been in question According to James  (1995), when Uduk  refugees  were granted land on the Bare for cultivation, the decision was  reversed and the same land placed under the aegis  cf the Forestry department
Il is  the natural irrigation of these silt-laden banks  on which Lhe Anuak  people have based then mode of life for millennia The Anuak  currently  reap two crops  while raiofed agriculture in the region produces  only  one For that reason, they  see no advantage in resettlement away  from the silted river banks  According io their spokesmen, they  ire interested in developing improved agricultural practices  (eg row planting, use of improved seeds  and fertilisers, oxen ploughing) and need extension advice Fearing crop theft if the*’ live too far from their fields, some Anuak  at Okuna on the Shiro river want to expand l- areas or rainfed cultivation which border on their existing lands
Whereas most^Ani0 suPP°n f°r irrigation developments, the situation could be toy the Nuer who ha. i~' °01 Speab Am*lanc or English, and have not taken kindly to
cxx t.
Xrne
'J 
<*"«* ambivalent ,denary and ate more *•
e possibi!'«“«°f imp>« "f ™Md i,s
S d   apl>“r
They are also’am™  “ “
f °r ''ml loob"8 and m°re interested in ;
6.1.1 Irrigation
.fltural
In addition to the agricultural priorities of indigenous peoples, a major cu jn-jgatto*1 water resource development in the region is that there is no experience in th* vicinity although expertise in flood irrigation systems does exist elsew OItIjcalb " wS< lowlands (the Blue Nile Gorge, for example). Even if the system v,ere flje
this would mean that considerable amount of crop losses would oC^ -duk) who in^e learned and perfected The Nilotic peoples (Anuak, Kama, Nuer and agri^^T^" Sudanese and Ethiopian lawiands have evolved their own flood
tb*
---- * pip fl
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Develop®*111
3B-26^rONOMlCS
ANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHNIC GROUPS ANALYSIS
5^^—------------------------------------------------------------------ ----------------------------- —------------- —
n d socio-economic incentives would have to be created to persuade them to
cur reni reasonably fail-safe system for another These remain to be identified
t0    Gambcla  Council  officials,  investment  is  currently  being  encouraged  as  a  result Recording   -   j   4jweTO    dam   scheme.   However,   the   lease   on   the   land   being   offered   to   the of  the  ccT^r   -5   a   mere  eight  years  Tn  view  of  the  high  cost  of  the  infrastructure  which  must prjvatf   deploy   this   water   in   irrigation,   a   period   of   eight   years   is   not   normally   considered he bul11 [° h t0 reap sufficient returns on the investment required for irrigated agriculture As
I0 ^ijTX p°|ic>'may have to re*examined
6 2 Water Supply Sanitation
n, was  a consistent call for rural drinking water supply  amongst all women interviewed. Local NGO’s  have identified spring development and hand pumps  as  a priority  and there is  an rareness  that more localised water supply  will improve hygiene conditions  as  well as  save time Drinking water should be treated by  the planners  as  an absolute priority  from the point j l" hum ar resource mobilisation as  well as  public  health as  it will free up lime for women to devote their energies  to increased agricultural production and marketing The issue of water pricing should be carefully  studied, however, as  current models  for rural water supply  do not make any  proviso for maintenance of fixtures  to be managed or financially  supported by community  contribution. It is  totally  unrealistic  to imagine that these water supply  points will continue to function in a sustainable fashion across  the Baro-Akobo basin if this  situation is not reversed in the near future
6J Natural Resources and Agriculture
The issue of food security  is  affected by  a number of regional, climalic  and market factors, land tenure policies  and the quality  of infrastructure in a given area Nevertheless, particular socio-economic  constraints  should be borne in mind in planning strategies  for increasing agricultural production in the Baro-Akobo basin
^^
r
Ucfai'c DeLays in the allocation of credit and poor delivery of inputs in certain regions of
1
• aro-Akobo basin have hindered farmers  access to agricultural inputs in the last vear t^O/WFPl995). In particular
In ,^ 8
e
ion 4 (Oromiya). the distribution of fertiliser was hampered since access to
edit Was not advanced to farmers who had belonged to bankrupt Peasant S sociaticns. (In this case, individual fanners were penalised for the failure of PA
„ account management.)
^Secondly, in parls of-
region as well as Oromiya, problems in the timing of
f 0^   11    Provis’On   and   payback   created   difficulties   for   farmers   wishing   to   receive   credit ^cultural   inputs   The   early   nature   of   the   planting   season   last   year   meant   that
heap farm®rs  wer<? required to plant without access  to fertilisers  because they  were not tiniel; ?Vai?able Thus, the problem of transport is  critically  linked to the key  factor of of p C y  dlslribution Other farmers  were not given credit because they  had not yet paid und loans  from the previous  season, a situation which points  to a poor tj^ ^and’n8 °f the mechanism of the credit system and/or inefficient management of
ance ofcash and credit payments by individual farmers
t AMS-ULG Barn-Akobo Rjvtr H»tin lnregrzted Devdopmetit Musi er PI in
3B-27SOCIO-ECONOMICS
X\'\EX 3B SOCIO-ETHNIC GROUPS
7hese issues, if untreated, may have profound impacts on the p f
o
hectare package throughout the country Jf relatively secure farm *° irilP tti
,e
Global 2000 initiative) who have taken credit to improve crop
there will he even greaier reluctance on the part of poorer farmer * d’Scoura credit Farmers who are still not entirely conversant with the credit * h' accePT the vulnerable both to market fluctuation in the value of their
Or ’&n^t
re Paymem &Urdfp
SKunry 
CmPs the pre,"^,,
According to the FAO mission, crop prices of maize steadily fell to up to
prior to the harvest after August 1995 (i.e to 50 Bin/quintaf as opposed to oi % °f lhe Pntt the same time the previous year) as a result of the combined effects of th Birr''^ 'n«al j-
u
loading of stocks by traders and fanners to make way for the new supply 
fact that a base price of 70 Birr/quintal has been set by the government ‘a Dcs?ile it negatively influence farmers’ inclinations to take credit and invest in aerTT <leflatiw' the future. In areas where improved varieties have been tried and failed
“ld
lnputs tCr
other   factors,   it   should   be   expected   that   there   will   be   substantial   relnr-t   0pcsJatUftor
traditional farmers to proceed further 6.4 Fisheries
e  On  Pan of
The development of a fishery industry will depend on who traditionally eats fish and who ar afford to buy fish. Refugees are the current consumers of fish near Bonga and kang regicz on the Baro nver since they are able to obtain cash through sales of food aid (cooking oil, flour and maize) Anuak men have continued to fish but have begun to sell fish in prefer®! to domestic consumption since the Uduk refugees can afford to buy large Nile perch wholesale Attempts to truck fish into Gambela by the heavily subsidised fishery to- operatives supported by Mekane Yesus have failed due to the breakdown and Mfr maintenance of vehicles in Itang Similarly, near the refugee camp of Fugnido, the
for fish as a function of the cash-rich refugee population is considered to be high e unreliability of diesel supplies, electricity and consequently, facilities for refng
Gambela, there is little likelihood of the fish industry developing beyond the oca Transport facilities must be improved and taxation at road blocks between region^^ managed more effectively so as not to create a disincentive for trade between reg general dislike of fish amongst the Oromo people who live in the nearest g® w
centres where fish markets might most easily be created constitutes a diversification  of  the  fish  market  (since  the  easiest  option  to  export  surplus^5   o markets would not be viable.)
-Agro-Forestry
toneaftt
purposes and for firewood persona' use could be developed if trees both for con^j
|
Le
The contingent value of ire« glVen a rnore aPPropriate financial and commerci
most communities in the Smith >re« which are in
In Shekicho areas for py^.i bark to indicate ownership
PpeaTs to
.  ^nge currently on the issue of land tenure
° f E**opU, the only trees one can be said »
Ptoxrmrty io 0M compound, not the trees in the Mt"ral ® lrces can owned and are marked
* 3 Shekicho) or within a hom^T/^
e
0Wned by a househo,cl are neafcC,mmanity
~ Sheko). Enco^cn^L^
3B-2SANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHNIC GROUPS ANALYSIS
f rewood lots (in the same way as eucalyptus plantations have been developed for [dinfit) would be a constructive solution to the problem of people destroying the
hc'j5c bu! jj.leafed forest for firewood without any chance of regrowth and without anv ^ ab,e Aommerctal gain for the government
-ktifice or c
Wiidl'fe
where consumer goods arc not purchased In other more urban societies, the
Relations between forestry and wildlife authorities have been strained since a vengeful
retaliation  was  staged  by  local  people  after  the  overthrow  of  the  Derg  They  felt  that  they  had been  unfairly  deprived  of  use  of  their  own  local  resources  by  threat  of  force,  a  point  conceded bv  the  spokesman  of  EWCO  at  the  conference  of  W  ildlife  Participatory  Conference  (Farm Africa  1995)  According  to  him,  the  Derg  regime  ignored  the  people's  role  when  'ecological ar  J  economic  benefits  (were)  not  accruing  to  local  communities'’  (Leykun  Abu  me.  EWCO). h  was  noted  that  the  situation   now  is  exacerbated   by  the  fact  that  most  of  the  shifting cultivators,   cultivators   and   agrc-pastoralists   have   procured   firearms   which   they   use   in   self- defence and hunting
In reference to the Omo and Mago National Parks  proposals. Professor David Turton stated at the same conference that planners  have shown "Little regard for local environmental knowledge and disregard for local land rights  and subsistence needs  Secondly, he said, "they show scant willingness  to 'save' the wilderness  from those who created it and wish to maintain it'1 (Turton in the Proceedings  of the Conference on Participatory  Wildlife Management, Farm .Africa 1995)
Hus is relevant since the same observations may apply to the Anuak and Nuer peoples in the moeia plains Like the Anuak, the Omo based Mursi practise "flood" retreat cultivation
p. ?jn ^hivatiem 'n foe bushbelt, as well as cattle herding above the 500 m contour
■eliahi
t0 surv’ve >s dependent on the flood retreat agriculture since it is more
2Q-Ml
IJlin r^intpd whirh
the rainfed which depends on bush clearance and cropping for a maximum of six
------------------ *
■U’ll SJU-SIL V1 t-£kJCA4|iw1w
Ihiiiek cltaMivA ors.4 rrnnnifln Fnr a mvinuim r’sF eiv
‘(--A 3IA
ECU   £0us.^eaT5     The   European   Development   Fund   has   apparently   earmarked   16   million
how*
howevv0er' h‘ a ,k^
wcverL h
s 'ec-rillSar, Mago and Omo National Parks' development The problems io date,
noreve
av(l
'   ^VC    t>een    deemed    t0    be     0   no   devolution   of   responsibility   to   local   communities   2)
'
_____ , . ,
.         ,     .           -         ..
uv .v.vr..._....................... — 1_i_--_---i_--_--_-_--_--_-_--_--_-__ n
nl*_ s generated for the local commnnitiM who currcniiv manace the wildlife and 31 no
=Otnitutme                 Policy" of the EWCO (dated Jan 6, 1996) approaches the problem with a : ^e instil’111 50010 degree of community participation in wildlife management However,
■‘ g’rlati
e
Olls1 Onal procedures are cumbersome, regional and federal responsibilities overlap and ’ nvo'veci which may make the process of devolution and management an
^irable hC
Cornm’trnem of the government to community-based initiatives is
Coined   bure^   SEVeral    rctommendations   are   ill-defined   and   depend   on   well-fonded   and   well- 1tet3eral and31ICraCies to hinction. The ambiguities currently relating to joint management
re gion) of protected areas and commitment to use the revenue to defray "the foil ^^ULGBin-Akobo Rncr Basin Integrated Development Master PlanSOCIO-
ECONOMICS
A
NNEX 3B
 SOCIO-ETHNlC GR
Olrps
.....
................
.
CO515
of  good  manage
ment"
as  an
initial  pri
ority,  may  also  jeopardis
e
the
scheme
The   status   of
the
EWCO
as   an
autonomous   para-statal,
a
Ct0Um
would seem to be poorly defined and needs clarification. Furthermore, ”l0Ca|
‘ ' - to
a «ou„lab| of*
-.S)Q
economic  use"  must  be  clarified  as  must  the  local  residents'  rights  to  use resources", which are to be "subject to certain controls'
The issue of consumptive use also appears problematic in that "cultivation and will not be permitted This will affect agriculturists in the Gambela park region
s  SOn °USe^<j occasions, lhese forays for food last as tong as a week and require overnight Honey gathering from forest hives is similar
and
iir
(
plants as welt as game as vital buffer to starvation during the dry  ^
b res,de”cr
The  key  strategy  must  be  section  E3  ;  "communities  will  participate  in  planning  mana
and  share  in  the  benefits  of  the  park"  The  provision  of  other  basic  services  such
supply  and agricultural inputs  will encourage communities  to feel that they  are^fe beneficiaries  of the scheme and not merely  ihe losers, so all interventions  should'b* modulated across  sectors  through the regional government. The election of committee* to plan developments  is  highly  recommended but no "hierarchy  of committees" is  recommended since that would run counter to the objective which is  to manage the resource at >j£ community level
The community’ management of wildlife through licences  granted to committee is  probafch the most sustainable method for conservation of stocks  since it operates  on an equitable pec system The actual procedures  will need to be ironed out in practice There may  be t problem about payment to communities  for wildlife contracts  to be monitored and approve by  both the EWCO and the region. This  system could lead to delays  and subsequent disillusionment with the system by  impovenshed local people who may  then feel forced by economic circumstance to return to illicit poaching
The issue of resettling existing dwellers in the proposed parks (E7) remains problems-*- however. As has been admirably demonstrated during the Derg regime, invohintty settlement prorides no permanent solution to the problem and creates social havoc, a" some cases, famine and disaster in its wake Recourse to the Prime Minister s o arbitration will be time-consuming and not necessarily the most apt solution, As 
have been granted the right not to be displaced from their land under the new const and the wildlife policy advocates that seasonal usage of land may continue, it 15 ’ that the areas of land claimed by pastoralists be demarcated with the communtt* territorial disputes can be avoided [It should be noted that in meetings with th tJ]C Regional Council, the intent to settle pastoralists was still being advocate promulgation of this law],
Die Draft wildlife act also encourages the registration of "private forests' Ei ^*^0^
t e Kefa region, registration has been associated with expropriation of land by ^focs so the regional government may have to deal with this issue sensitively n
engender co-operation
TAMS-1 LG Baro-AkobflRjvrr Basin Integrated Devriopmen* M «*errrONOMJCS
ANNEX 3B SOCTO-ETHMC GROUPS ANALYSIS
- ----- -------- ---- ---------------------------------------------------- -—---- ---------------------
, Tourism
4 -ethnic tourism" or interaction of foreigners with traditional groups of the highland st region wouid not be viabIe per se but "“o-tourism" in the forest and the
south w , wh!ch w ou]d exploit the knowledge of indigenous peoples of forest flora and
,
escafl”1’6'1^ be hjghly successful. Such models have been developed in Uganda for the
faun* co^
(fade an
d such a programme would be an environmentally sound and
^,ly productive strategy for Ethiopian tourism as well as catchment protection
d forest above Nllzan Teferi towards Tepi is an extraordinarily beautiful site in
h tourism could be combined with coffee production, as a complementary but equally 
***4 dive cash-generating industry At the higher altitudes, the forest near Tepi with its 
tiered lake, would constitute a natural she for tourist lodges catering to both Ethiopian
^foreign tourists, with its giant ferns, orchids, poinsettias and flowering trees.
the  same  time,  trackers  from  rhe  Majanger  and  Me’en  might  be  induced  to  take  tourists  on walking   tours   if   they   were   to   benefit   financially   and   revenues   were   to   be   perceived   as compensation   for   cutting   down   forest   Industries   could   be   developed   with   these   revenues diversifying  into  plant  and  cut  flower  export  (as  is  being  done  in  Eritrea)  and  wild  honey production  The  main  spokesmen  for  the  Majanger  in  Meti  were  familiar  with  the  English language  and  this  would  indicate  that  with  supplementary  training  a  programme  could  be hunched   which   could   attract   the   support   of   local   peoples   and   give   momentum   to   the development of a national tourist industry.
6.8 Impact of Refugee Populations
The impact of decades of civil strife, refugee populations and famine has been marked on the productivity  of the lowlands  and its  dwindling wildlife population According to one Nucr
■'’.lormant, familiar with the language of w ar. "Now we have defeated the animals ”
Hunting i$ currently practised by Anuak, bluer, L'duk and Fulata in the plains. Me’en and ganger in the escarpment, during the dry season The impact of uncontrolled hunting on
ife population is severe, as all groups take part, particularly in the dry season The
^s.aineo burning of the forests to encourage the green shoots and attract game may be a
and^100 lb* ^
i gly desperate need to supplement diet amongst the Anuak and Uduk,
ncrcas n
competiiian for the now depleted gamp stocks between the escarpment and the grasslands 
n gst the Fulata, Majanger, Nucr
attT^ burn’n8 's done from January’ to March io encourage the growth of new' grass 
However, such bush fires occasionally rage out of control, inflamed by
lhe
loosed Iaking theif to11 on 11-665 and cven electricity  poles  While burning has  also been local N 35 a Sbort *-enTl tactic  used by  hunters  to flush out game from the hinterlands, one "^squn^ gained that brush was  burnt during February/March was  done to kill the ^bitats  n Presumably  both the malarial mosquitoes  and tsetse fly) lingering in the wet
31 cheir settlement as a precaution
In sOrne
11,6   iniPacl    of  die  refugees  has  been  stood  In  terras  of  economic  impact, *°nien                of for sale in Gambela market is being boosted by Fulata herds as
^Jionaj
markct wih milk daily to sell their surpluses. In this way. they fill a
^l^aricetifig gap by providing a desirable product The niche in the market is TAMS-LLG Baro-Akobo River Euio Integrated Development Mailer Plan
3B-31SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHNIC GRoUPS am
_____----------- --------------------------- —----------- ---- rencur settlers from nearby highlands who are atte
also being deve^ J'_ *?'Z herds in Gambela using communal grazing l
v
ands
>.
I
6.9      Cultural Constraints to Development
6.9.1   Patterns of settlement
t n., h.nhland areas of the south-west excluding Oromiya, the majority  f
o   shifi
in small settlements formed of dusters of houses At the momem.
is no more adjacent forest to clear, the Majanger. Meen, Sheko and Shekicho peoples tran^
their base to another settlement
Currently,  the  priority  for  most  shifting  agriculturists  is  the  necessity  to  be  close  to  the  f
It is  vital for their survival that they  protect their crops  from thieves  and pilfering animal (baboons  and monkeys) With forest dwellers  such as  the Me’en and Majanger, proxinthv  / the forest has  been essential in the past for security  and escape from marauders  Even wiihi- the last five years, serious  outbreaks  of fighting have erupted between the Majanger and the Macha Oromo over control of the area near Meti Historically, such incursions  by  outsides into Majanger territory  have been repelled by  using their knowledge of the dense forest t deter invaders  and escape capture The forest acts  as  their primary' defence as  well as  th source of their livelihood
for the Shekicho, for example, as a result of population pressures, there is an effective Ims shortage Land is not available at close range to allow expansion of existing settlements Cultural priorities are being challenged in such situations as elsewhere in Ethiopia with me result that young people are leaving the land to seek alternative livelihoods either through wage labour or the marketing of charcoal and other forest products
Shifting cultivators cannot sustain their current mode of livelihood in villages tar forests Until this slash and burn style of cropping is changed, either as a legislation to protect the natural forest, or because other industries are create^ conception of their livelihoods will not change. It should be remembered tna
forced vilhgization have failed both in the highland and lowland areas o
culrural as well as climatic and economic reasons Deployment of indigenous p ^
nC0.
croaC lin
|  et:
agricultural sectors such as tourism might be one constructive solution to the en of cultivators on natural forest.
6-9.2 .Marriage
perceived to be as awuXT^^i^P"31 t0 a COtJPJe but nowadays, marriage down®Lj
j,
of the girl as dowry the Niter n ?'in °
f
the parenls The Anuak Pav 1500 B‘fF ?ZrtJf
at 1200 each, plus a ;J° tO “meni a ^Bench. betwee"6 ch
steep price has ledl0 berween communities 
of 0,6 bride Md 50 on Amongst the Be^j(jnS
° ®ir s 3 situation which causes friction an
The necessity' for a man tn »
frustration in a subsistence cco™ 1 * bnde p?ce in Order to marry ^^nn’lace
rrea^
internecine conflicts can be further
---------- --------- —— __________ nflamed. In an area of south-west Ethiop________________ an>Akfibo River Baira integrated Development Master PL*”
and rape can become E.0’’1'11?%:edECONOMICS
ANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHNIC GROUPS ANALYSIS
Tern
s
of
marriage,
it
has 
been
sug
gested
by 
popu
lation
expe
rts 
that
a  greater
polyg^01
1/
S|
Sdren
arc 
needed
by 
each
wife
to
help
in
the
cultivation
of
each
womans 
'„.j^ber
?
*
gons 
are
also  entitl
ed
to  in
herit
the
land
and
there
fore,  each
wo
man
seeks  to
^pecti^   P   0    ]and   through   her   children   The   result   is   a   population   surge,   not   a   decrease. I>v     clajj°secunty   is   more   assured,   such   traditional   systems   serve   to   guarantee   economic Until   tbc^   parcnts   in   changing   economies   Neither   men   nor   women   are   anxious   to   be security   f°r     Without   sustenance   when   sons   go   off   in   pursuit   of   cash-generating   labour
^gotten   or     -c     i
p ts  of such social policies  should be directly  confronted by  planners 
m  ac
The   jemO^deririg   agricultural   expansion   vs   other   development   options   in   the   highlands   and when cons' - incentives devised to reduce the population rise
d  that  greater  access  of  girls  to  education  will  change  the  behaviour  For  this  to  take 1115    h°tt^uah,   more   women   will   have   to   be   trained   as   teachers   in   local   teacher   training I’ 1**'   for   enrolment   of   girls   to   become   culturally   and   socially   acceptable.   A   regional W    t'  therefore,  could  well  be  the  creation  of  teacher  training  colleges  in  each  region,  with bonding or hostel facilities for student teachers, particularly women
6.10 Trading and Tradition
A cultural problem posed for the development of the forest and escarpment as well as the
lowlands is that the majority of middle-man traders and importers come from the highlands 
The impetus to trade for profit is simply not a characteristic practice of either the Omotic speaking (Bench, Me'en) or the Nilotic peoples (Anuak. Nuer, Majanger). The Oromo
however, have always manifested a talent for a multiplicity of trades and livelihoods 
wherever they have migrated.
An impetus  for sedentarizauon amongst the Majanger has  led to increasing importance being given io education, jobs, cash economy  and diversification of cash crops  away  from subsistence, but it is  still necessary  to slash and bum new tracts  of iand every  four years  as 
UlCre ls110 use of fertiliser
’knied?31 tra“un8 centres training people in skilled occupation could create a pool of
abour to work in industry though there is a tradition amongst three tribes that lower
hbo^
w  u,
° d normally would work as hunters (Bench. Sheko and Kefa) and perform skilled
iawev ° SUch ar“mositV to manual or skilled tasks seems to exist amongst the .Anuak. « *ho prefer collective activity.
6,11 Local Priorities
^SionaliJ 
with local planning authorities throughout the basin to record their
n
M *n oth lned priorities O  some occasions these plans were conveved in discussion
in Amharic were given to the team in order that they could be ° ^ S'ish for the consultants’ reports The results that follow document the
n
enquiries.
Ai ^S-LXG Bany-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Muter PlanSOCIO-ECONOMICS
6.11.1 Mizan Tefari 1SEPAR)
WWEX 3B SOCIO-ETHNIC GROVES ...
------------------------- -------------—-—T^-vsis
(Bench zone includes Shewa Gimira, Gurrafarda, Sheko, Temen/a confirmed)
~ 1 P^s
Representatives    from    the    NGO    Bench    Development    Association
development   prionties   to   be   spring   protection,   construction   of   Sch   C°nsidered   the (though   there   was   no   apparent   concern   for   the   danger   to   forests   fro   h   and    fe«de-r roaci The  cost  of  transporting  coffee  was  estimated  to  be  between  20/30  Birr  y  Se   access r°adsj oae   quintal   (100   kg)   from   the   hinterlands   and   the   construction   of   feeT   °   °ne    <canyir.j easier  to  bring  coffee  to  market  (Bench  and  Sheko  weredas  are  the  Cr   roads    *ouldiRiakei, zones    near    Ntizan    Tefari)    Currently,    though,    (January    ’96)    thcr/    7    C°ffee  prPord°ucing
<"«te
beans  may  rot  due  to  the  unceasing  and  unseasonable  rain  in  the  BerJk 
4->cncn region
3   fear   that
^e
— coff^
According to our Mizan Tefari-based informants, there are certain urgent development Urban dwellers arc anxious to improve their dectricitv supply  ^
P  Oril’e
willing to pay 5 Birr/month for electricity, secondly, as the natural'forest is To* W°U!d
being protected, laws against encroachment should be devised to protect it thirdly 
a particular need for more secondary schools in the rural areas, facilities for teacher tr' “
should be set up in the region The nearest centre currently is in Awasa, 700 km away
The cultural constraints  to development, as  identified by  am urban Bench informant weresai; io be polygamy, the custom of abducting girls  for marriage without negotiation or bride-price and high expenditure on weddings and funerals.
6.11.2   Dima Tmvn
This small town where the I'VHCP sprung up and expanded mainly in rX^ J r
,
On banks °f thc Akobo river his
crossing over from war-tom Sudan Alii. ° ^resence Nuer and Dinka refugees,
grain-rich refugees  has  develoucd in th V economJ'' f°r consumer goods  catering to tbs and Tigre Nevertheless  private °Wn’ n’ain,y managed by  highlanders  from Gojjun
Mules   were   being   walked   to   th^   irt    i   ^
nse ls 
,    slowb’   being   attracted   by   the   Dima   market
cattle  were  similarly  t»ino   i
e(1    l   ,  W   ands   u^ere   they  could  be  sold  in  Dima  for  100  Birand
profitable  sale  in  the  lowlands  '  CnterP
ns n
‘ 8  ^Uer    through  the  tsetse  infested  grasslands  fir
in neaibvrivers  DisLsesaT* f'eJ° the SOUth °^D'™  practice artisanal gold panning
in search of work. South of T •  v  “ is  considCTed a dangerous  place to migrate to
where coffee is  intercronoedS x" Wa> t0 Dhna is  lhe huSe co^e piantaT,on at Bebd?
extremely femle and well
banana and mango among the shade trees. Again, this is y-
though the lower escammeri ?             20116 1116 Meen Jive in the highlands below Be^2 ppears to be virtually unpopulated.
inclu
the vS^fX rivbeCan,e c,«ar that fl
^small
^gat.on^ ^riment X °f lhe Burea- of Water Resources n
toVhe^d ° e V6r 'S becomi
”S more frequent
d *m is to be m C ?roce$$ of .4 !Je®Onga river m '*arer resource development local*.'
4
°0-500 people  y th c‘
b
—- ^Plehave bee'
e
f    SP aCen,ent and re
gOv
maize and sorghum at a site^a
1
{ ^acXtcordinc to t? h ehen‘. ^re^eisonal sit aut ated'hor  byi ttihees, A Appar W> ertlh
,.
' he Wa(er Bureau head) but in Abo^*
lat Vtticd Development Muter Plan
3B-S4ANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHNIC GROUPS ANALYSIS
o f houses was said to be 150 It is not clear whether the average household size , he n^berq 5 or ]0 If it is 10 per household, that would mean that 1.500 people would have
. n Ab°b° lS)ed as a consequence of Alwero dam Unfortunately, the procedure has not vet be rC^Ctt4  n,d there is considerable uncertainty about the outcome of the enterprise
a
beendeflllC
t  also  became  clear  that  Gambela  Wildlife  Park,  when  gazetted,  was  to  have  been SeCOll^d’at   national,   not   regional   level.   This   would   preclude   any   negotiation   by   the   regional
tnan*Sc0
f 0LIr cornmunities, currently competing for game and forest resources, to
consensu$ and become mutual beneficiaries  in a negotiated compromise over
jeu'lop    amana^enient    Any    resolution    of    the    current    problem    (where    open    hunting    is 
;eS
atirce   ^g^ontijujed   existence   of   a   future   park)   would   need   to   define   clearly   the   rights 
^^egional authorities to negotiate and monitor this compromise.
wiih the Gambela Regional Council's planning department and sector heads, the
lallomng developments were identified
•     Health  centres  are  to  be  built,  not  in  villages  but  spaced  within  a  radius  of  settlements to   provide   an   increased   number   of   clinics   per   region,   in   addition,   community   health personnel arc to be trained in primary health care
•      Four  farming  projects  in  Abobo  have  been  licensed  to  investors  for  peanuts,  pepper, and  cotton  projects  on  plots  ranging  between  400  and  500  hectares.  The  duration  of  the lease  granted  is  8  years.  Foreign  investments  are  being  managed  at  the  central,  not  the regional level and therefore, nothing has been circulated about them
•     Agricultural  inputs  have  been  ordered  in  the  past  but  were  not  received  and  there  is  a continuing   problem   of   supply   via   the   service   co-operatives   The   agricultural   sector representative   acknowledged   that   no   private   traders   were   selling   fertilisers   at   the moment,
•     Flood  embankment  plans  are  being  discussed  and  the  high  cost  of  such  embankments noted.
•     There  are  plans  for  local  businessmen  to  undertake  co-operative  ventures  in  the  private Sector  in  the   near  future.  These  ventures  might  include  co-operative  small  enterprise and agricultural development on collectively owned plots.
*'114 Masha (Shekicho zones, SEPAK)
4 meeting was held with the agricultural authorities who outlined the local priorities in
^cultural development They included improved extension senices to encourage livestock 
•enir.g and development of improved fodder
TAJV1S<1LG Bara-Aknbo River Butin IntqETMed Dcvdo|>nicnt Mister Plan
3B-J5SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3B SOCIO ETHNIC GroVps
7.       NEED FOR FURTHER S TITHES
7.1     participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) and Participatory Urban Appraisa|
Following    the    preparation    of    proposed    interventions    in    the    Master    Plan    mor Participatory   Rural   and   Urban   .Appraisal   studies   are   recommended,   preferably   with    m^iftc women   s   groups   separately   This   tactic   will   give   more   specific   feedback   on   individJ”5   lnd to  labour  In  the  various  productive  sectors  (agriculture,  livestock  and  marketing  of
and  areas  of  incentive  creation  As  women  are  generally  responsible  for  secondary  stag^i crop   management   from   weeding   to   harvesting   and   food   processing,   their   ability   to
such tasks  may  become overextended if no other labour source or shift in traditional labX- practices  are forthcoming Similarly, for men, if wage labour is  becoming the major cast source for households  and as  a result, there is  a shortage of male labour even for commum, activities  such as  land clearing, ploughing and sowing of crops, it will be important to examine the consequences  in human resource terms  for proposed interventions  such as Global 2000 or the expansion of coffee plantations  in forest areas  Current trends  in tiie expansion of the economy  in terms  of diversification of cash crops  and cash requirements  fa expenditures  on education, health and food (sectors  traditionally  managed by  woman will also need io be clarified in such a study.
These PRA's and PUA’s can be managed in the following ways: First, rapid PRA's can be conducted in the highland areas near Mizan Tefari amongst the Bench, Nle'en, Sheko and Majanger shifting cultivators individually as they manage the eco-system of the area in relatively different ways and seek to exploit natural resources in distinctly different social ar,- environmentally sustainable ways (i.e. either with and without cattle or with and without the concept of'permanent' settlements)
Secondly, PRA's can then be conducted in the lowlands, amongst the cattle nationals living around hang and Jikawo and the sedentary' Anuak peoples of region, with meetings sought individually with Anuak near Gambeia, elsewhere on river near Bonga and south to the Gilo and Akobo rivers (This is important as the ecu.
and sources of income of various .Anuak groups differ significantly)
, the
Thirdly, PRA's and particularly Participatory Urban Appraisal studies can be 9^^
10
Oromiyya region where agricultural inputs have been provided for the lasttwo jjjvt
wbo
In this case, it will be important to consider three distinct groups, fi  > f      -  jent,
rSl      arrne
vS
tried Global 2000, secondly, fanners who have not tried Global 2000 or the «1    coun‘
aC
thirdly, a mixed group of urban dwellers, civil servants and entrepreneurs,
of
the growing urbanisation of the area due to the prosperity reaped from coffee. -   fb
on
e
labour shortage and costs of bringing in labour to increase agricultural P   y,eig^
r0               d
contribution of greater crop yields to the area’s economy should      ■   it
als0
e
e  eI
Dembidolo, in particular, should be considered as the focal point for the  ^ ^ 0
sn6-5''
i
nexus  for  the  greatest  traffic  nt  goods  between  Gambeia  and  the  rest  of  Ethiop* centre for urbanisation and homogenisation as a result of trade in the area (c
' See the hconoimc jnfTastnicutre annex (3C). _____________________________ __________' TAMS-0 LG B&n>*Akobo Rncr Basin Integrated Devrlopn>cnt Ma^dcr
3B-36ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHNIC GROUPS ANALYSIS
pus's would assess
the*
f
#
' willing* *
1  55 of farmers (male and iemale) to adopt credit schemes,
Oners' understanding of the use of fertilisers, pesticides and improved seeds
• prioritisation of development needs from the point of view of the various 
tnC ^unities, differentiatine between urban needs (the demand for more secondary- ^hools feeder roadS' 1OCaI lransparl heallh centres rtc <) o* ntral needs (increased
Si?n cultural inputs and development of agro-industnes, for example)
“C
]] sive planners some understanding of how to create the socio-economic incentives 
ThlS.^
fr
' development of entrepreneurship in the various regions Such studies would also
^'^the way to opportunities for private sector investment and indicate the appropriateness Mother development interventions (proposed by the consultants) to the local communities,
issues to be considered could include:
* the willingness  of the community  to contribute labour or moneys  towards  the provision of infrastructure (eg springs, hand pumps, feeder roads  and the cost of materials, (and terms  would need to be negotiated with local NGO’s  to ensure some degree of consistency or the initiative will fail)
' the material benefits  expected to accrue to the community  from proposed interventions, (cost-benefit analyses  and training and employment opportunities  which would be open to members of the local community}
•      the   changes   in   legislation   or   community   management   strategies   which   would   be appropriate  to  safeguard  the  natural  resources  of  the  area  (the  honey  industry-  in  the forest   versus   agricultural   expansion,   for   example   and   the   development   of   sites   of "exceptional  natural  beauty"  (eg  the  lake  near  Tepi  or  Lake  Tata  near  Gog)  and  their compatibility with coffee or other forest industries
impacts of the other proposed intervention strategies (e g eco-tourism)
Such participatory approaches have been adopted in other resource management projects 
■^thin Ethiopia (for example, in the Blue Nile gorge) after decades of failure io impose top- planning and would constitute an innovative approach to land use resource planning
better prospects of sustainability and success than top-down methods.
72
Nutrition and food sources
■onTc]TlJrC                    11 Wl11 a*so be important to investigate what is the source of food, who
Jr&ducf Production and market ins7 who inherits the land and thus the source of food
a woman's own plot? her husband's plot? food For Work' a ^actio aSC marl;etn after sate of what produce?) in order to understand the complex 
^ftsurnm’S between women, children and men in (he production distribution and
WlOn°f food across the basin
^tondiy h -
inc %V*d be important to evaluate how control over returns in household agriculture
-■’00)
t0 v,'ork and consider how the introduction of commercial iarming (Global
’■ take Ov " ecied (he gender-specificity  of farming activities, In many  countries, men tend
the forces; markel-oriented production leaving women to subsistence farming What are
!h? ’abour
in
1
Ethiopia ’ These should be defined The issue is labour availability. Is
facilitated by the prevalent polygamous system  More wives are
9
t *MS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integraind Deselopnwnt .Misler PlanSOCIO-ECONOMICSANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHNic GRq1? <
p
.
utkowd smce lhev shut labour for field cultivation though the problem of c 
m collect^ focMod and *3ter is a factor which constrains gi
| ' ‘*e
rS
education (Yeung girl-’ aw deployed by their mothers to walk long distal ’°
firewood ) Tasks traditionally undertaken by women include planting, weedinc 7° crop transporting and processing (See Cleaver & Schreiber 1994 79 of'
for
a.Tphficatien)
Due to the increasing need for more consumer items especially in proximity to to
have been insolved in generating cash crops directly for the market from' subST*' *D°t= (tiila) and anw for sale either from home or in the marketplace Substanf**
may be expected in the domestic economy and women's roles if investment is poured isTKultural sector in areas where women are the main cultivators and marketers F 1310
If trust can be established between government and farmers that any incentive to more will Dot be taxed or expropriated, then reluctance to abandon subsistence arnaul can be overcome, The current complementary crops in the fertile highlands (coffee plmfrr trees, grants and vegetables) has proved successful. There is a growing need to build o indigenous knowledge of crops in the environment, enhance productivity through econcn t incentives  and gain community support for development initiatives in the basin io  be successful
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i I Sa^P|e.
Central Statistical .Authority. Jan 1995 Report of Crop Utilisation Agncuof
Survey, 1989/90 Private Holdings Addis Ababa: Transitional Ethiopia.
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n
Agriculture and Environmental Nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa, ^aS Bank
pion
TAMS-U1G Ban>Alobo River Basin Integrated Development Mm*rcr
iANNEX 3B S0CI0-ETH5IC GROUPS ANALYSIS
n and Wendy Janies 1986 The Southern Marches of Irrpenai Erkopu
>.^^ridce Cambridge Univeratty Press
tony O. 1972 A" Agricultural and Socio-Economic Survey of South Sudan.
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6
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pntchard E E 1940. The Nuer, Oxford Oxford University Press
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’           r-w
■ R. 1955. The Galla of FthinniaSOCIO-ECONOMICS
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SI5
James. Wendy. 1995 Report to ANCHOR on the L'duk. January 1995
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es Cambri^
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1898-1936,   in   The   Southern   Marches   of   Imperial   Ethiopia,   eds   Donh   SdCan
Wendy James Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 
Kamai. Shubh Hana Neka Tevev and Gianni Pastore 1992 Investment in Nutriti Health for Famine Prevention in Ethiopia, in Famine and Drought
am D ard j
MC
Ethiopia   in   the   1990   s   eds   Patrick   Webb,   T   Zegeye   and   R   Pandva-hr-? Washington International Food Policy Research Institute
Lanee, Werner 1975 Gimira Remnants of a Vanishing Culture Johann Wolfgang Goetbe- Ur.iversitat
Mengisto Sevoum 1993 The Shekicho. MA Thesis Addis Ababa University, Depi cf Anthropology
Orent, Amnon. 1968 Lineage. Structure and the Supernatural The Kafa of South Ethiopia PhD Thesis. Boston University of Boston
Osteriand, David C 1978 The Anuak Tribe of South Western Ethiopia: A Study of its within the Context of its Socio-Cultural Setting PhD Dissertation Lrbana ni\ of Illinois
Pankhurst, Alula 1986 The Social Dimensions of Famine, in Proceedings o International Congress of Ethiopian Studies, Moscow
Sishagn, Shumet 1985 The Economic Basis of Conflict .Among the Nuerof Communities in Proceedings of the Third Annual Seminar of i e History, Addis Ababa University
Stauder, Jack, 1971 The Majanger Cambridge Cambridge University Pre5b
f the ^71
A.nuA‘-
rfornia: Wi^117 Tippett, Alan R 1970. People of South West Ethiopia South Pasadena, Ca i 0
Carey Library
UNDP Gambella Needs Assessment Survey (Region 12) August 1993.
,f Wallmark, Patrick. 1981 The Bega (Gumuz) of Wollega Agriculture ana ^chlgan
Peoples and Cultures of the Ethio-Sudan Borderlands, East Lansing University pp. 79-116
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basic Integrated Doclopnicnt
3B-40
—ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRASTWI!CT.‘prc
ANNEX3C ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURES
q LG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Dcvdopment Waiter PlanIi0 ClO-ECONOMrCS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURES
COXTEXTS
^UtODl'CTlON.............................................................
AVAILABLE data
1.
1
Il
'.I
1.3 1.4
14.1
144
144
Road Network 
Airports ..................................................... Ports and River Traffic...
Electric Power ..............................
General....................................
Demand forecasts
Capacity withtn the Bar^Akoho ^sm
I +■
, sector ins HTLTIOXS
i ] Road Sector
7 ; Air Transport Sector i 3 Electric Power
.... 7
■■ >«■ ■■■■'■ ■■■»■-« iii »«««<■ a. ■     X         i i i «*•>•**«»*■» ,8
-
..............................................................................
J SECTOR TARGETS AND PLANNING TO DATE.-—10
3.1      Road Sector Targets and Constraints 3 2 Plans for Future Airport Improvements 3 3 Plans in the Electric Power Sector
..................................... J® *
l-
4, METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH TO THE TRANSPORTATION SECTOR.. 13
4.1     Methodology for Estimating Future Road Traffic............................................................
4./J.        Methodology for estimates of cargo movements and truck traffic...............................
4. 1.2    Methodology for estimates ofpassenger vehicle traffic•.....................................................•
4 2 Methodology for Estimating Future Air Traffic 
5- DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
- ^Proposed road improvements 
—21
7 f I        Rehabilitation, upgrading or construction of trunk roads and mam in v
■;;               Construction of new mink roads and major links 
; J 5        Rehabilitation and Upgrading of key Regional Roads................................... ;  J   4   Upgrading  and  expansion  of  road  networks  within  the  M  eredas
.7 Proposed Airport Improvements 
J - ^  Posed Improvements in the Electric Power Sector
ro
Electrification
r  • Hyd  P°wer generation.............................................. *-........... .......................
ro
a ^is for Estimating Project Benefits....................... .............
I
8
8.1
U/
*1.2
5 2 
ev ’ew of Benefits and Costs.— •••• ‘
r oad IMPROVEMENT priorities...—
p °8 r AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS~
5 !Jrrcnt Situation......................
Rested Services
^^mmumcanons................*............
.45
45
........ /s
7 Appraisal of The FuLure Needs 
...
........................... 45
.... . 46
„
ln,e
?
___________________                               TAMS-ULG Baro-Ak_________             obo River B____  «i»  —— -n7n^P®cn' MllS,er
CX OmH 1OEC0N0MK5
ANNEX JC ECONOMIC fNFR.\STnv
? H KTHER Nil DIES----------------------
■ • •**1**»*»*<.M.
eJ v z 
■* * -W 4
11
Ro*d wctc*
V travel thJ tspott nrprvwmms EXtmc Fc*»r
^rri npices
r
i- 4* 4'
■M
TABLES
!
TaSc I Traffic by rpad length (1993) TaKrt Airycrt characteristics 
.......... ............................ ................................ ........ 4
J.
T
!»>£• tkowiic is passenger Traffic (arrivals and departures).
IaSe4 Prcnectxv.s of track traffic on trunk roads and main links 
Tablr J Projections of passenger vehicle traffic an trunk roads and main links Table J? Future domestic air passenger traffic Arrivals and Departures 
T able * Telephone connections in the Project Area
-’
-
K
**-
acronyms
I
I
XDT
Average Daily Traffic
BC
CSA
EELPA
Benefit/Cost
Centra) Statistical Authority
Ethiopian Electric, Light and Power /Authority
lRR
NPA
Internal Rate Return
Net Present Value
RR
Rural Road
i
TAM5-IXG Bi^-Akobo Rher Ruin 1 nt n-rated Dodopniem
ii
A-'
A5XEX K economic r FJUSTRrcn RF5
^Rootcrrox
- . ime< is conceded primarily w.th three elements of inftasmiour. „s„h _
2 :0Wbtion and rhe popular™ of rhe towns and small cities of the Project
^tsattd el«™ power A fourth element pons „ ,oudt<<f „
X\«s limited role ol the two over pons tn the area little is raid ahrntt i,
^•est of electric power is confined to a description of the MMra infc^L,
Rations and sector plans, the development of power seneration withm ft,
«-«» in A.-.oes 1J The exisnng state of post and tdecommomcations. and .
5 nre are also addressed tn Chapter 8
Tins report does not cover other areas of existing or potential economic jci.-vt- WCr, ..
-ndustnai development. forestry, fisheries and tourism all of which subject; are addressed reports and properly belong to the private sector The projected growth ta
aweomic areas however provides a large pan of the justification for the dev'efoomer* ofZ ntrismjcture. which is indeed a pre-condition of economic growth
'
rZ
m
’
The major share of the work  on the rural infrastructure sector has  been carried out over a one -nanth period, during which time existing networks  or facilities  have been defined, estimates of future demand prepared, possible improvements  evaluated and a program of future investments  developed The time available for undertaking the amount of work  necessary  to meet the requirements  of the sector has  thus  been very  limited Furthermore, it has  been necessary  to base the estimates  of future demand for infrastructure upon existing very preliminary  figures  and broad assumptions, as  described below in the section on methodology
Ta *IS-ULG Baro-Akfiba Rher Basin Intend
\tawr
I„„c
SOCIOECONOMICS^
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRastdv
1, available data
1.1 Road .Network
Information on the current road network, ongoing construction activities nla - improvements, planning level costs and the organisation of the road sector h^k^ adcS*t*0!'«l from a range of sources These include prior studies, mapping at scales oTi r
1:50,000, documents obtained from the Ethiopian Road Authority, ' ^ews 
of the Ethiopian Road Authority and quasi-pnvate transportation entero i ™ memt>«i importantly, field observations by member of the counterpart team The
mapping of roads in the area is considered to be that shown on the 1.250 000 accurs:e were digitised for use in the GIS and checked against more recent 1 50 00? theit individual weredas The resulting maps of the existing roads, categorised by class? design standards, are presented in Volume IV Map .Album, pages 5 & 6 Certai information, important for determining improvement priorities and the appropnatenew* particular roads, such as the location of proposed resource developments or the limits of tri most important watershed forests, should be incorporated in the final phase of the Masiei Planning exercise for cross checking certain assumptions made here in order to establish future traffic levels and develop proposals for future roads.
tnos’
The primary source of information on current plans for road improvements has been the Road  Sector  Development  Plan,  covering  the  1997-2007  period,  which  was  recenth prepared  by  the  Planning  and  Programming  office  of  the  Ethiopian  Road  Authority  This shows the road improvements to be carried out during the plan period, as well as showing which of the improvements are currently funded. Information on the organisation of the road sector,  as  well  as  data  on  road  construction  costs  were  obtained  through  interviews  wiA members  of  the  Ethiopian  Road  Authority  The  Road  Sector  Development  Plan  provided another source of information on construction and maintenance costs
* the road The Project team visited most of the road network and tabulated information on.^ standards (i e paved, all-weather surface, dry-weather use only and mere
condition, approximate width, bridge and culvert clearances, seventy of gra e for Jje running speeds This information was available nowhere else and has been es consultant in evaluating the need for improvements
The infonnatior. obtained
' te     ""    n"TOrfc      °r,runt     radJ      *
^!al,yp^edroa(j^h      Oids      that    are    ser\iceabl      m',*TUre     of     a"    weather     roads     Mth     ,0^ c 30 passes through thee     at Present tim ° °v' *” weather There is onlj o*
r
' 3 trunk road            *ntr'°fthe Project
°™s that skin  or p X2anlbela J«rnm
* dAddis Abibi £ 
en the Project
extends from Mau ro Bedele & ? fonns   P™  of  what  has  been  design^
a          Add.s Ababa There are two other
‘  e"ce  to  Addis  Ababa  Tk  ^'her  in  the  «n  ?  n°nh   that   lintcs   Asosa   w'lh    ^ekeffp'.
roads T<Z  * 
h
joins Mi^ Teferi toJ^
— 
nOrt  1'souti}   foutes ((^one ?ch iofs J?tfle  Central  trunk  mrpo3 fdmented   fy  a
' form three east-west rout* *
series  of  major  hn  ■
that CUts thr0Ugh
TAMS-LLG Bans-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development 3
n ^innment Master PI*D 2ANSEX 3C
economic infrastructures
Ln the "tu1heas! “Ward N0t °f these TOd llnkj « “»We d>*n™
it'"". «on 3"d !omc req“'re :°ur’wh“' drlvt vehicles even during dry months south, the east-west trunk and major link roads are
ftfiri
north L
. ° ^ j.^-.CKehank  be-Ca-hank  Aleta-n TAlefeien ri-Ifnan^ '   GS°im“bi GiOmubitsiOdeuttsi hedePtrhmeePrtrAoire«ctthA;,re„-ai„ this major
JlUll
Te en Inan
0>
joins the trunk route that goes to Nekempte and Addis Ababa Between
• 3Q(i Kebe the road is not passable during the rainy season (From a point east of ?! m Teferi there is an a alternative route through Yubdo to Guvi on a regional road
^thsoce north to Gimbi).
,u
From Gambela east this road
i :i    aft   of   the   trunk   road   noted   above   East   of   Mem,   portions   of   the   road   are   paved   and Jhe work of upgrading this road is continuing
-  In  the  south,  there  are  two  major  link  roads  from  Tepi  to  the  east.  One  extends  directly to   a   junction   at   Shishinda   with   the   trunk   road   from   Mizan   Teferi   io   Timma;   the   other road passes through Mizan Tefen and thence to Jimma
From west to east, the north-south routes arc
(1)   One   which   consists   of   two   separate   pieces,   since   there   is   no   effective   road   between Gidami   and   Chema   (There   may   still   be   a   track   )   The   northern   half   includes   the   road through     Kurmuk-Asosa-Bambesi-Begi-Gidami,     though     south     of     Bambesi     the     road     is not    passable    in    the    rainy    season.    The    southern    half    passes    through    Chcma-Mugi- Gambda-Abobo-Lake   Tata   (or   Gog)   The   road   from   Abobo   to   Lake   Tata   is   a   new   road built  as  a  part  of  the  Abobo  Dam  Project  The  entire  length  is  considered  to  be  a  major link   road,   except   between   Asosa   and   Bambesi,   where   it   is   part   of   the   trunk   road   that links Asosa with Xekempte and Addis Ahaba
-) lhe second major link  road passes  through Gimbi-Guyi-Metu-Gore-Masha-Tepi-Mizan Teferi- nearby  coffee plantations, and continues  as  a local road to Lhe refugee camp at Dima, where it is  interrupted by  the Akobo River (Points  south of the river must be reached from Maji ) lr. the north, from the junction south of Gimbi to the vicinity  of Suco this  is  only  a dry  season road, as  is  the road south of the coffee plantations  below Mizan Teferi
East of Mizan Teferi there is  an alternative route, doing south &om the road to Jimma, °^&h Shewa Gimira to Maji This, also, is  a dry  season only  road, which is  currently lr *g rebuilt and is not always open to traffic
Are rouie noted above, which e.’ctends diagonally through the centre of the Project joins C hank a-TGejaom-RhoJ?blnGS Cehbaenkyaa T-eDjoe-rRnobbidGoleob-Geyaam-Dbeelma bBideotwloe-eGnaDmebmelhaidBoelotwaenedn Dembiddo and
the i0 e/ the dlrect routc ’s Passable only in the dry season, so vehicles generally take L K6t rout
n 8e^thr rroouugtehthCrhoeumgha CahnedmMauagni.d Mugi.
 trunk p ,
L <prQject a and rnaj°r Unk roads described abo^e form the outlines of a network serving
^’Use op’. ea *5 nLjrnber of the roads in this network have been built in recent ^ars’ P^i Garnh/ act,V|ties of the UNHCR and are in good condition. Examples include the road
TJig
h  .  'a
ou cv
hang and Karsen and the road from Gore to Mizan Tefen. At the same
<riaSthe rai'lhe Pres«nce of several stretches of the major link roads that are not passable ^_2Lny scasoni or possibly not at all means that" substantial portions of the Project
■* ^ls_
1
LLG B^roAkobn River Basin Integrated Develop®**  Master PlanSOCIO-ECONOMICS
------------—
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC [\pkll.
Area are isolated during much or the year. Since year round access is development and can usually be justified in economic terms, an carK, - ^ntJal tQ upgrading of those portions of the network of major link roads that are not S' * l< rainy season to all-weather standards 
.As noted above, this network is supplemented by a system of regional roads se towns that are not on the main roads and the many small villages in the couni ^ regional road system consists of
sable in t[)t
rirside.
(a>
roads   that   sen   e   a   number   of   villages   or   productive   units   and   link   two   B basic network and
Oi nts °n the
(b)      purely   local   roads   that   serve   only   a   few   settlements   or   farms   and   may   dead linking with another road
without
Most of these are dry  weather roads, built initially  to iow standards, poorly  maintained a are in generally  poor condition, so they  are not passable much of the year Indeed, same an little more than two ruts  penetrating, the bush These roads  are seldom raised above the prevailing grade, lack  side ditches  and have few-, if any, drainage structures  In sev  eral cases the lack  of bridges  means  that, if vehicles  are unable to negotiate the fords, or if riversarettx deep as  a result of rain, the roads  are closed and people and goods  cannot reach theii destinations
While the upgrading of the basic  network  may  be one priority, improvement of key  feeder roads  and local roads  in the regional network  should also proceed on the basis  of the number of people served and the consequent level of benefits  Also, as  development proceeds, certain regional roads may be upgraded to the status of major link roads
The Ethiopian Road Authority maintains several permanent traffic count stations within ±e Project Area and carries out 7-day classification counts three times a year: in February, Jnh and November in order to record, respectively the high, low and medium levels of vehic-<_ traffic TAMS/ULG was provided access to a copy of the counts made in February 1
which showed the following volumes during what is considered to be the high traffic perto
Table I Traffic by road length (1993)
---------------------- ------- -
Cars
Buses
Trucks
Trailers
Batyl - Metu
35
J
50
Gore - Gam be la
23
0
18
Gimbi - Dcmbidolo
60
7
98
Metu - Gore
1.--■
66
1
J
54
Mi2an Tcferi - Tepi
5
0
33
Mem - Algae
------- ■——— —
35
0
28
1 Nekcmpte - Bure
■N
J
11
26
nan
Since   the   February'   figures   are   believed   to   reflect   a   period
be considered indicative of a rather low level of overall economic activity
TAMS-ULG Baro Akoho River Basin integrated De*Hopmen7>tlS,crANNEX 3C ECONOMIC fNFRASTRUCTURES
jOC^j>-------- —
• velv    laree    volume    of    nucks    between    Gimbi    and    Dembidolo    is    perhaps    of ve a    f     evidently,    the    route    through    Gimbi    is    favoured    by    many    truckers    over    the    more Xi*inter      tn    Gambela,    passing    through    Bedeie.    Metu    and    Gore,    because    there    are    fewer Sect     ’***     where     they     feel     they     may     experience     difficulties     Otherwise,     they     would cW'I[FT"S! the more direcr road
i:  Airpo^s
■ n on airports in the Project .Area has been obtained from me Civil Aviation [ntjrtnatto          gt^0pian Airlines, which appears to be reasonably up to date This
■^Ton indicates that there are 6 operational airports in the Baro-Akobo Basin, plus 
3 airfields in or near the basin that are listed as "active but not operational". The features of the six operational airpons are as follows
Table 2 Airport characteristics
AirporVAirfield
Runway Length &
Width(m)
A/C Operated
1 Surface Features
Gambela
2520 x 45
AH A C
Concrete Pvnrt.
Dembidolo
1250x50
Twin Oner
Grass on Clay
Soil
Asosa
1020x 50
Twin Otter
Grass on Clay
Soil
Gore
1190x 55
Twin Otter
Turf
Tepi
1300x45
------- 7-------------------- Twin Otter
Earth-Very Rough
Turn iMaji)
source Civil Aviation Authority
1100x60
Twin Oner
______
L
Not Specified
Sd fa * *
as it is known. Gambela is the only airport with any navigation aids. Since the power ser ',nS the airport has been out of service for a time, however, the current operating
of rheSe aids is not known
passenger traffic at the operational airports in the Project Area has been as follows
Table 3 Domestic air passenger traffic (arrivals and departures)
■kirport
Year
1991
1992
1993
4,133’
1994
4,699
7J19
j',923
5.348
1995
A937
2,587
3^90
2.29?
3 JOO
1,235
],45B
2^502
3,101
2,532
1,255
1,871
2.387
826
2,437
3,560
1,38$
2.178
3,179
3.767
3388
opian .Airlines
tS-VLG Baro-Akobo River Banin Intezrated Devctopmcnt Mailer Plan_-- -------- --- ----------—
SOCIO ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC IJNFRAST®
1
As   has   been   the   case   in   much   oi   East   Africa,   growth   in   passenger   traffic   ai airports has been relatively modest and there is no clear trend While the p '’
r
been the scene of border disturbances and large population movements du j
r n JCC‘ 00
twc
h Ss
time, the impact of this unrest upon travel to and from the area is not known ® part of tfais lack of growth at Gambela and Dembidolo may be attributable to the lack of supf ^ ^ on the aircraft flying to the area. At the last four airpons listed, however, there
steady and significant rise in the number of passengers flying into and out of th 7 tcE:i a in spite of the fact that Gambela has the only airport with a paved runway capabl^ ph heavier aircraft.
1.3 Ports and River Traffle
^hng
In  the  past,  the  Bare  and  Ribor  Rivers  have  been  used  during  periods  of  high  water  f  -  .h movement   of-goods   to   the   Sudan   and   between   port   facilities   at   Jikawo   and   Tirgol   in   h Wereda    Because    of    unstable    political    conditions    and    a    changing    economic    environment" however,    commerce    between    Ethiopia    and    the    Sudan    has    virtually    disappeared    and    i5 unlikely to reappear in the same form.
Furthermore, use of the Baro River for the movement of cargoes  is  not feasible during rhe dry season, because of inadequate water depth Jikawo was  damaged by  fire several years  ago and its site is understood to be, at least temporarily, abandoned
Finally,   a   new   road   is   currently   being   built   which   will,   hopefully,   provide   a   year-round   link between Abobo, south of Gambela, and Tirgol
Tn view of these developments, there appears  to be little future for river transport, other chir. for the possible accommodation of tourists. Except in that context, therefore, ports  are r.ot considered further
1,4 Electric Power
1.4.1 General
Virtually all electric power throughout Ethiopia is provided by the Ethiopian Elect™, and Power Authority (EELPA), a government-owned utility Information on celPA5
electric system and future plans has been obtained both through discussions J' * provide
1
5
Director of Corporate Planning and a review of earlier study documents. EEL - power through two distinct systems the Interconnected System (ICS) w hich supp
al! the electricity generated in Ethiopia and a number of small self contained ^ st€ on’? The capacity of the power stations supplying the ICS in 1995 w as 370 MW At P
4 g of the population. i$ supplied with electricity.
7.4 2 Demand forecasts
The average specific consumption within the SCS in 1995 was 550kWh per
je i*
that    in    the    ICS    was    more    than    double    this    at    1260    kWh.    Growth    in    specific    c°J^vely resource-constrained, but has averaged 3.4% and 4.9% for the SCS
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Busin Integrated Development Mfl5tcr F***1
6ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURES
•‘iS^ °"bwh ,he inOTM'in
ot^ri connected to either the SCS or the ICS Various Jiinnsf d growth °f average being a growth rate of 9% per annum
7  Opacity within the Baro-A/tabo basin
_,. L.n jhe Baro-Akobo Basin, most of the towns with e’ertrir J*; ^roCectric plants The ICS does not extend to
resent.
Projections have been
Tjpjcal of the plants m the Project .Area is the small hydroelectric installation of 710 tw it,af ^esMizan Tefen or the diesel unn in Asosa The unit in Asosa operates Qn
Iwause of its limited capacity acts as a restraint upon the m of water pr “rfbv 
0
the town water system
piwraco oy 
[he only  larger system in the Basin is  the one that draws  its  power from the 5 MW hydroelectric  plant on the Sor River and serves  Gambela, Dembidolo and Metu on an SCS A 7«ent planning study  prepared by  the National Urban Planning Institute states  that 42% of we people in the Gambela area have access  to electnc  power but consumption is  only  a faction of the available capacity  1 Plans  have been formulated far expanding the output of the Sor River plant to 10 MW but EELPA intends  to first extend a new' 132 kV line to Hedele before undertaking any  expansion This  line will eventually  link  up with Metu so that the Dembidolo/Gambela/ Metu system will be part of the ICS.
V nenes also ttial families dwelling in houses ------- ------------
matched
___ ,——
-j fnt electric power 7 his ___------------------
l i£°nccm over potential fin: hazards^--------------------- -rTd^Pmcnt '
TRiver B^>
7SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFR,..^
■-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -
V
2.      SECTOR INSTITUTIONS
2.1   Road Sector
The law establishing the Ethiopian Road Authority states that the Autho responsibility for all roads within the country This includes establishment of'\has
the planning and design of road improvements and the construction and maime* ^
throughout the country except in major urban areas 
In the case of trunk roads and major link roads, the Authority exercises its 
0    SUndardi'
nance road<
directly, using consultants and construction contractors as appropriate, in additio^ " ^
01
staff With respect to regional roads, the Authority also manages road construction'f T regions and provides technical assistance, at the present time.
nr
Under the new law that grants the regional governments greater autonomy, however regions are nou able to undertake the planning construction and maintenance of regional road systems  on their own within the limits  of their resources  and without reference to the Ethiopian Road Authority
Thus, there is some inconsistency in the present legal framework, which the Authority hopes will be resolved in a manner that will allow it to retain control over design and construction standards system wide plans and design practices
The Ethiopian Road Authority is divided into districts for the purpose of managing the road system and maintaining the roads themselves The district that currently includes the Bare- Akobo basin is based in Jimma.
responsibJHbr “cb dlstbct *s farther subdivided into sections; each of which is Sections  within th . ai"in® om to 150 kms  of road, depending upon the road surface
Mizan Teferi
A™ k 
a^Asosa Secuo nU r
,DCiudc those based in Gambela. Metu, Dembidolo, Tepi
AS0Si P)US Bcdele Nekempte and Bonga - outside the Project
that .*iJI be m ^empte and will take over the O*
that are now under 1 6•*,S s’te ot"ProJcct maintenance for the roads in the ar
maintenance ' "Cotton. As such, it has the capability to undertake minor equips 
capacity for miSoAe"^^ °F *** f°r any eA P
ui
mMt maintenance. Jirnma
1
•Authority's Central Rena  cu prcvcnnve ^ntenance but major work must be d hbelack o/seXle^ °P “ Addis Ababa Staff members at the .Authority noted
equipment is a major problem at the district and section levels 
construction
studying the various mechanisms 
i'°
3 dcdicated "
h    Goven^c’l! 5 Road FU  nd
° f year At preSCOt ^T^uch a
inspection fees 
This     Road     Fund     is     expected     m     °°     and        disbursinS     the        moncyS.     e        fees 
t0 rCcove moneys from fuel taxes, license
TAMs-LLG Biro-Akobo Rher Basin Integrated Development .Masterp^OCJO-ECON OxMICS
.< Air Transport Sector
*
air transport sector is ^drninistered h I* the various mrporis within the cou„^' "•
annex 3C economic infrastructures
should they wish 
Jj Electric Power
Oftnwtl control ar those aitpon, . L
Ethiopian Airlines. which pays rental ft. hand/e comm.
indicated that other airlines could™ lhe C'vil AvUtio'^ is in -h 
d e nter ini0 ^^ority rOr th^^ds of
' "'Kk and
tie Authority
As noted above, electric power for almost all of Ethinni. Eirtic Pwer and Light Authority, or EELPA It should b?
b  V the
-      £/hh i
v an
r,vestment    in    electnc    utilities    is    now    permitted    though    >r    k    ,°ted'howev^    that    pnv^e
systems. (The term "small" has not been clearly d fi
e  ned f imited 10 "sm^’ capacity
EELPA    operates    like    any    other    utility-    it    generate    an4    ,    u afaidial customers a. a price that is intend'ed to enable ft
11 scl,s »SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC
3.   SECTOR TARGETS AND PLANNING TO DATE
The Ethiopian Road Authonc outlines   target   for   the   you   v
3.1    Road Sector Targets and Constraints
4   A ♦horitv has recently issued its Road Sector Development P|,n  which
durins this period and notes uw
from 1997 t0 2007, indicates priority road projtcu
pf     for     some     of   these   project   Funding   has   b^ progratn though commitments have bee.
secured   for   a   little   less   ttoi-   finding   remains   as   the   chief   constraint   upon   the
received for another 42/.
■
Development Plan and priorities are se
importance
•    access to ports
•    access to existing resource areas
•    access to new resource area
•    access to food deficit area
in document in the following order rf
•    balancing the distribution of road infrastructure among regions
In  line  with  these  priorities,  the  Development  Plan  sets  forth  a  number  of  ongoing  and proposed  projects,  according  to  whether  they  involve  rehabilitation,  upgrading  or  nr* construction and whether the roads are trunk roads, major links or regional roads. Projects are also grouped into Phases I and II, each of which is five years long Within the Baro-Akotx: Project Area, the following road projects are included in the Development Plan
Rehabilitation of Trunk Roads 
No roads in the Baro-Akobo Basin are included in this category’, though both the : roa a Addis Ababa to Jimma and the road form Addis Ababa to Gedo (60% of the tst Nekemte) are included Financing has been secured for both these roads.
Upgrading of Trunk Roads
Ongoing- Phase I, finance secured
Jimma -Mizan Teferi 198km Gravel to A S D. 196.454,000 Birr
Proposed for financing - also Phase I
,
Metu - Gambeia 176 km
Gravel to A S D 190,819,000 Birr
Gimbi-.Asosa
234 km Gravel to AS D. 253,703 000 Birr
The  roads  from  Xekempte  to  Gimbi  and  from  Dembi  to  Bedele,  which  are  out.id Project .Area, are also proposed for financing in Phase 1
Phase U includes no roads in the Project Area
Upgrading of Major Link Roads
Phase I includes no roads in the Project .Area
Proposed for financing in Phase U
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Deselopnre   M*
nl          lS’crA ^3C cnx
E
oaabel3-Abobo S2km Gravelm^T
P Sd rr°m N'ken,P'e '° o^e tht
of New Link Roads
. wjng -Phase I, finance secured
in
Gambela-Jikawo 
120km.
Gravel
Gravel
IC,300,000 Birr
Wacha-Maji
]35km
114,477.000 Birr
Proposed for financing in Phase II Abobo -Godcre              150km
Grave!
P"m
" Onh ’f
138,990.000 Bin
» ra^ «>r 5^™S in
RqiMal roads
The Road Sector Development plan also sets  forth a !0-year investment program for regional roads. It is  broken down by  regions  but does  not list specific  roads  nd, since the Baro-Akobo Basin includes  partial regions, it is  not possible to define how much of the program may  be illWLted to the Project Area.
Hoad density
The Road Sector Development Plan also establishes  two generalised targets  for road density 
□  the  country  at  the  end  of  each  phase  of  the  Plan,  The  nation-wide  target  for  the  end  of Phase  I,  in  Year  2002.  is  0.46  km  per  1,000  population  and  27  km  per  1,000  square  kms,  with about  68  percent  of  the  roads  m  "good"  condition  The  Plan  does  not  specify'  whether  or  not
■•Pse targets include regional roads.
h is interesting to note, however, that road density in theProject a*ut 0.73 km per WOO population and 22-
are! major links are taken into account Some perce
■stood» condition at the present time (Indeed, if tru
Percent are in good condition). Thus, if only those roa Ethiopian Road Authority are considered, the on
Ihc'ec; Area are close to, or exceed, the national targets
•• -barp contrast to this picture, is the situation with regard to the 1.490 kms of key regional :toI have
mem may be considered in -good” «**
st the present times is roads
roa ds are estimated to be in alone are considered, nearly 90
dir ect reSpOnsibilrty oi quality of the roads in die
thetnink
200j
Project Area, under
Action or b j g rebuilt At
en
least 62 percent are found to P
l$v/°ad proJects included in the program outlined in the Road
*ith f°Und lo he economically viable by the Ethiopian R
t   C’ tCcPtion of proposed major link road between bobo taMS L
. tlG in a
therefore, and'Godere wereda
t^,,
^ Ueni section
taken as 'givenT in the future road program proposed o,
bob
°f vjt3]* °
l7 ^
has such enormous potential for the destruction of one of
-1 Waiers^cd forest remaining in the Baro-Akobo Basin that an alternative LG Baro-Akobo River Basin Jntcgrated Development Mister PlanSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3C
route passing thr• aough a reas ofre s*?avannah and open
. 
this annex.
'est. f, fururttheherr s sout  outh » h, i
Flattr j,
Going beyond the roads
, .u already proposed by the Ethiopian Road Authority, the above
p roject Mca suggcst thal fftw .f
fltn
on tte fcnaO * be in ,hc early years of lhe planning period llBtead, 
T uTSvenWlhe retabiltauon. improve^ and poss.bte expans,on of r^ona!
staid be pven_io 
“e'^Xeb Poputoei areas ,n ta nonh of the Mea
4ng links ttia
, are currently dry weather roads and
t
3.2 Plans for Future Airport Improvements
No information has been received to date regarding plans for future airport jm
The urban plan developed by NUPI for Asosa does note, however, that the ’mprovemer
- s 
that town will need to be relocated, since it occupies a site close to the centred th
area, where land is rapidly increasmg in value and should be dedicated to urban uses * Urtw
3.3 Plans in the Electric Power Sector
At the national level and international level, regional interconnectors  have been the subject of several studies  These have included connections  to Djibouti, Eritrea. Sudan and, possibly, Kenya
The regional interconnector to Sudan was  found to be technically, economically  and financially  sound and could have an impact on the Baro-Akobo Basin but, because of political factors, lhe emphasis  has  shifted to improvements  within Ethiopia, itself, and this project is on hold.
In     addition     to     the     132     kV     lino     .co,
arc plans to extend a 132 kV I,™               r p am to Bede,e. which is mentioned above, there
small   diesel   plant   is   exoectwi   ir.   h   °   .   «   !   .   m     Ged°   *lthin     the     nexI     2     1/2     >'ears     Another
a diesel set in Gidami
In   the   post-2000   period,   it   is   intended   that   the   Inter   Connecterd.    System   (it   -J 
’"stalled in Tepi in about 2 months and there are plans for
be extended w
•   awajt   lhc
localities    in    the    Baro-Akobo    Basin    Detailed    planning    for    such    an    extension    mu-    s^.e     and completion of lhe Integrated Master Plan Study itself and decisions on the oca i .
liming of hydroelectric installations within the Project Area
!
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akotxj Rivtr Basin Intej^-ated Development Master PlJ
12ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURES
mET11O'’OL
QGICAL approach to the       transportation sector
ll.
, for Estimating Future Road Traffic
^ethodolosy
the    priorities    of    the    Road    Sector    Development    Plan    and    among    other COnsi$tent improvements to roads in the project Area, particularly those in the regional
r
5
jad  >'stems’
*
permit    , hat productiont to icveis
j n area to obtain such inputs as may be needed to increase crop
will allow them to improve their families’ diets  and produce a
^Tthesc farmers to ship their surplus production to nearby markets and more
distant centres.
•    permit extension workers to assist farmers in adopting modem techniques.
•    increase the viability of potential large scale agricultural schemes in irrigated areas by 
improving their access to labour and markets.
•    permit rational exploitation of mineral resources in areas where they have been
identified.
x  addition  it  should  be  noted  that,  by  determining  which  roads  are  to  be  upgraded  and  which nay    be    specifically    excluded    from    a    program    of    improvements,    some    control    may    be exercised over the cutting of trees in vita! watershed areas, as has been noted earlier.
In order to evaluate the effectiveness  of the interven 10 P J® . abov^ ^as  been
enabling the people in the Projeci Area to realise the o jec i .
necessary to develop a methodology for estimating the mag
“Ptas. plus the production and consumption of other goo s .. . lhe following
^proved road system in the Project Area This methodology is described in the F-agraphs.
agricultural nermitted by an
W.MakMogyfor ntimain of can«
^.ttn deternfine the effect of
rovemews. 
» raffle and assess the potential benefit UMJ                 d
‘
„„  that» J
plK
>» b’“’ e and the
Xcssary to develop a set of assumption a lctivity that may resuf
5
Wwws of traffic in Years 2000.201s
■J*^s for foe project descriptions, pro-tormas sector development options
F
“''casts <1/ market volumes
•2° ‘mprovements are made within the
that traffic volumes would increase som
?rojeC otneWhat aS thc P°P
on  ,hese
calwl“,oos bW'
and no chanS^ tallO~ke Pla«.
n uses but these
A *IS 1 LG Baro-Akubo River Basin fntefirateilljevd^P®^* Maitcr Plan
13—------ ------------------- -—
SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFR.A eTn
increases would be constrained by a further deterioration of roads, particularly 
as routine and periodic maintenance continue at cun-ent levels but no other wor^ "
0 31 ro
»c
5
rk 's done3
On the other hand, if various interventions, including development s h improvements, etc arc carried out, new economic activities will arise and farn^^' r°»d will have access to extension services, to agricultural inputs such as fertilisers lhe outside their immediate area It is expected that many of these farmers will res markeb
incentives with the adoption of new methods of cultivation that will
increase -
t ri
P °nd l° SUch
to levels that will allow them, first, to improve the nutrition of their own families'1 Ch°P y'eltls generate agricultural surpluses, which they will want to send to markets In addh^ then> these farmers will want to expand their cultivated area and population growth °n S°me o:
new farms being created within the constraint of available land
"
Further increases may stem from the introduction of irrigated agriculture Rcvond a '
result ’»
-
the    Russian    proposals,    potentials   in    this   area   have    been    fully   assessed,    and    priorit^sT^ been assessed to provide the basic elements of this sector in the Master Plan
Elsewhere, in the lower plain, improved animal husbandry' practices  are expected to result ir. potential shipments  of meat to urban areas  outside the basin All of this  increased activity  will be a major source of increased road traffic
Other resource development schemes  that have been proposed, so far. include rehabilitation of the area of gum Arabic  production between Kurmuk  and Mugi, which has  produced up to 16,000 tonnes  in recent times  (including, also, some frankincense and myrrh), establishment of 750 ha of new gum arabic  plantation area, development of 40.000 to 50,000 ha of plantation for the production of eucalyptus  poles  in the forested areas  of 7 w eredas, below the escarpment, that are too severely  degraded to restore and, finally, exploitation of some of the mineral belts that have been identified
With the help of the team's agronomist and other resource specialists, the volume of goods expected to be generated within, or attracted to, each wereda in the Project Area has been quantified for the Years 2000 and 2015 It has been conservatively assumed that, in the yean following 2015, traffic volumes will continue to grow in parallel with the population •
respect to agricultural production, it has been assumed that, in both the upper basin an plain, a pattern of smallholders will continue to prevail but that greater productivity achieved in the areas of the plain that arc not subject to flooding The proportion o a adopting new agricultural methods in Year 2000 is taken as 10% and this is expected to to 67% by sometime before Year 2015. It is assumed that about a third of the farm continue to use more traditional methods in later years, so the rate of adoption o methods will not increase by much, once 67% is reached After allowing for a shtf increased production to be retained by each farm family to improve the diet °
members, average surpluses per hectare of land under cultivation have been va
follows 231 kg in 2000 and 1323 kg in the vear that the higher adoption rate is J 
in
aC ue
j  ve
the upper basin, and 173kg and 2126 kg in the same years in the plain In order wi)l b<
these surpluses, it has been estimated that average inputs of fertiliser, etc of - moved W needed in 2000 and 283 kg/ha by 2015 or earlier In order to estimate the tonnag
or from each wereda, these figures have been multiplied by the number of heC'’ of the
expected to be under cultivation in that wereda in the target years. Almost
A comparable assumption
TforAMS-rn nV.^ :;^—m the Road Sector Development Pj£L
0  'CrB«in Integrated Development Master Plan____________ ANNEX K ECON°MIC ryHUSTRVCTUMS
.. Jtpu> i’ iranipon^ ,hJ 
b «“""
and March, while the
-nciilt^ fc arc received in May and June. Therefore, the resulting estimates have been
> iftPnr0V*c aVCrage a"d P
5
e 190.000 ha in the three weredas ot the lower plain are devoted primarily to c^endy 50 inft and this may rise by 4 5% annually between now and year 2000 and bv 
■jvesiock ta’» ^ween 2000 and 2015 Estimates ot meat shipments from this area are based ' of One livestock unit per hectare, which would take five years to reach
have a dressed weight of 250 kg It is assumed that slaughtering and r>ct S,Ze ..M take place near the production areas 
^hering
■ 0 gum arabic and related products, approximately 2,800 trees per hectare translates 
g tonnes per hectare, or 2,100 tonnes total
in the new area, p[ $
u    ar estimated
>30'o I?"000 tonnes in the rchabiiitated areas’ b>' the -vear 2015> Since >t takes 15-20
". for trees to mature, production in year 2000 will still be modest. The production area
in the five weredas between Kurmuk and Mugi
Regarding the harvesting of eucalyptus poies, it takes several years for these trees, also, to
Midi a point when they can be harvested, so production in the Year 2000 will be minimal
Bifore (he Year 2015, though, they will have reached a point when it will be possible to cut
hrm three years out of four, with an average annual yield of up to 1.080 poies per hectare
Beause of competition and the distance to major urban centres, however, only 20 percent of
nij figure is assumed to be actually marketed
Tnffic  that may  be generated by  mining activities  cannot be estimated at this  time Gold is Mirentiy  mined on a small scale but it is  separated from the base rock  on site and the ^suiting metal can be carried in a man's  pockets  Some other metals  have been identified but k detailed studies  have been made and they  are unlikely  to be exploited in the near future Aay  trafTic  that may  result from mining in the first half of the planning period would most
r Aably 
r
come   from   the   movement   of   equipment   into   the   Projecl   Area   rather   than   the
■'PUe.it   of   any   mined   materials.   A   nominal   allowance,   equivalent   to   about   5-6   trucks   per ^v.aas been made at each potential mining location
vi]' □for construction may  be found in the upper basin and road building activities 
bew  ^
ev
<!rate     SOrnc     Tr3-flic   Potential   for   the   movement   of   construction   materials   are   included,
arj othe a ®enera^ estimate of the volume of supplementary  foodstuffs, consumer goods 
^ulatign °°?ds in trade that will be produced or consumed by  the rural and urban
(orne 20c  k  ° the aTCa I1 *s estimated that the entire population of the area will generate
tout aoo JS PCr
of S°°ds movement in Year 2000 and by 2015 this will increase to
5qq per ^P’U. In addition, it is estimated that the urban population will generate an ' ahifMon of£ Ca?ita flf goods movement as a result of their economic activities and
these » -eir needs- Overall estimates of truck movements in the Years 2000 and 20] > i "'rities, ^'triaies, in addition to the goods movements that are attributable to specific
lhe r<»- major UnW the 0?cars° “‘J 
of the assumed to be concentrated at the wereda town and it has also been a^umec 
<’ Allied , g0ods would be destined for or originate outside lhe Projecl Areas. fe -
wereda would consume the same the urban population in a wereda would consume the same
^S-OLG BartxAkobo River Basin [n1c£Hlted Dcselopmcnt Master Plm
15SOCIOECONOMICS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC
quantity of locally grown food. per wpilA w the rural population and that
fxxl would also remain m the wcreda A hand assignment of the goods mobut^ v
utroda tel Xtea beta made to the major links that connect it t0 lhe outside ,n «*ch
xdgemem regarding the routings to be selected and the proportions assionrvt ?Or^' <«;•-
- to e^
when more than one road may be used
For mmot resxxu! roads and local roads a somewhat different approach has bee
given the scale of this Study. these roads arc not individually identified $*8ce
surpluses and rural consumption within a wcreda arc assumed to be mobil; J,
regional and local roads in the wcreda and average haul distances, estimated fro u On3 tfce
the wcreda. have been used to calculate the tonne-kms of traffic generated m 1 ' size of
fnaJ factor and number of trucks
Is the manner described above, the volume of goods moving along each road seen'.
beer, estimated for the Years  2000 and 2015 and this  volume has. in turn, been convent^5 the number of trucks  The total volume of goods  that is  calculated represents  movement- - both directions  and if each truck  were to carry  a load in only  on direction and return - the other direction, it would have a load factor of 0 5 To calculate the number of trucks  or the road, therefore, it would be necessary  to divide the total tonnage of goods  to be mobilised ta both directions by half the capacity of each truck.
In intervie*? with the managers of various trucking enterprises in Addis Ababa. TA.MS-L1G team members learned that about 20% of the trucks serving routes in the western pan of the country are able to pick up return loads Thus the average load factor is about 0 6. which means that some 20% fewer trucks are on the roads than there would be if all the trucks were to carry a load in only one direction
The typical truck found in the Baro-Akobo Basin at present, is a two axle truck with a
capacity of ten tonnes and this sue of truck has been used to estimate the number of trucks in Year 2000 By the Year 2015, it has been assumed that the load factor will have risen to
0 65, that the average size of truck will have increased to thirteen tonnes and that, on
trunk roads in the area, 30% of the trucks will have trailers The numbers of trucks  *
e
,ltnat
for trunk roads and major links in Years 2000 and 2015 are presented in Table 4 In the y following 2015, it is conservatively estimated that truck volumes will increase at rates are 25% higher than the rales of population growth
TAMS-ULG Biro-A kobo Rhcr Batin Integrated Development Ma*tcr ?( SOM|CS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC lNFRA5TRt€TLRf5
projection’ of truck traffic on trunk roads and tn am lF $a
D
Tabic4
-----  2000
an j
Adjusted Tonnes/'Ye
Trucks
Dr*-pcik
Truck*'
Djy-Avg,
Tndts
Dsy-tafc
-
137.900
I5A900
197.300
308.400
338.600
Adjusted
Tooiei/
Year
85
96
122
191
209
77               723JM                  245                 1*2
87            79* WO                  269
110           980.700                     nr                 23J 172         1.516. MO                  512                 358 189          1.673 800                 4 58                    W '
of Kak« ^Kake^3nka
-ra.ooo
64.800
118.000
146.100
155.600
23                       35
40                       36
73                       66
91                        32 97                       87
---------------- -
96,700                   43
30
174.400
400.700
77                   54
i*t-*
176 i * .■
M5JOT                222              156 534 JOO                 233                    IM
• 
_i~~
^tai7^5hish,nd2
25.600
79.200
115,500*
61.200
16
49
72 +
33
15
44
65*
34
US. JOO 61
439.200                 193 636 800*                280* 29O.6OC                  128
43
135
196-
*X>
27,900
15.100 10
16
9
41
8
4
8
94.900                   42                    30 51000                   25                   17 .
73.400
(above)
46
12 900                           8
369.700
(above)
57,700
24.400
64JOO •
165 114
26                   18
5,100
4
13.500                           9
11
29 l
U          -rr
f- aQjm Tderi
^Tetai-fctWorWacha
d »ctWK]u -stustunda*
- Ti Xfrshrnda dutet Rcuid >
Gsh-Tqn Road
kx S cf Gimbi-Ytrga Degen
YxiDegca-Supe
kpe-kiNofMetii
aNtfMcfrGcrt
Cor-LaJc Jet
Lwkt-Gecha
teta-Tcps
' This road segment also receives traffic from roads outside the Project .Area
Methodology far estimates of passenger vehicle traffic
‘^numbers   of   passenger   vehicles   using   roads   in   the   Project  .Area   in   hears   2000  and   .0L ^beeti estimated using a different approach.
Pnnur)' studies of travel habits, such as household surveys, have been earned out in l hus  no data are currently available on the propensity of Ethiopian prop e to
8
20
s
^2 7 rCaSOns the* travel the distance they travel when they do Furthermore,
icvty ifln’,,el 15 constrained by the poor condition of local roads and the results of such a
11 ^ere carried our at present, would be misleading
fctv  ipttor1    ^aS    k&en    necessary  to  use  a  set  of  assumptions  (hat  yield  figures ^ireim rcasonable. have no empirical basis and need to be review per. car
* t* *m ^f
n
ru
^ C'e-
QrLa^l>' be assumed that women, particularly, may go to market once eek year-' t0 sel! — P-t of their produce (fresh fiu.t honey, etc.) but
e mainly within each wereda and may often be on toot
,o Points further away, which would require vehicular transport (prwxe two types of travel are estimated.
^ 1S-ULG Baro-Akobo Riser Biiin Integrated Dnetopmeni Mirfer p1xnSOCIO-ECONOMICS                     ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRast*.,
(i)
-------------------- -— ~
The first type is essentially local travel for which it is assumed that dUrin roughly 2 1/2% of the residents of each wereda will travel along regi0 8 w
roads to nearbv weredas -half going to the adjacent wereda and half *'"’J* S
adjacent wereda and half going two weredas away.
'• going   £
to
The second type is travel outside the Project .Area For this travel, it js
(u)
the residents of each wereda will leave the area at least once a year will T     W
lfua
direct route and will generally head east, towards Jima and Addis Abab° "*«
recognised that some population groups do periodically move with their *•
11 «
the border with Sudan, there are no road crossings of the border at prese
no formal trade In the future, the road crossing the border near Kurni"^      * r
VUtu  ll
opened but. while it is difficult to assess the impact of such a move it is I **
little effect upon road traffic in the short term
1 e ’Vlo have
To estimate the number of vehicles involved, an average of 6 passengers per veto I driver who is not counted) is assumed for local travel in both years 2000 and 20]*
vehicles would be a mix of trucks, minibuses and four wheel drive vehicles nl **** conditions improve a small but growing number of private cars For most travel outV^ Project Area, it is reasonable to assume that buses would be used, and that these vehicles' cam an average of25 passengers per vehicle in Year 2000. which may rise to 30 per veS by 2015 Table 5, shows the estimated number of vehicles, each day. that will be involved n earning passengers on the trunk roads and major links within the Project Area in those yen For years after 2015 it is conservatively assumed that traffic will increase at rates that are 50% higher than the rates of population increase
0
_________ ——              Pl*° TAMS-l LGButhAkobo River Basin Integrated Dcvdopnw '
18ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC CMFRASTRCCTUKES
Projections of passenger vehicle traffic on trunk roads and main links
_ - - -——“—“ 2000 2015
Local
ID
Pass/Dav          Pass /Day
Passenger
Vehicle/
Day
Local              LD Pass..         pass T>ay
Dja
Patteoger
Vehicle/
Dav
Gainbtl Bur?
Bltfc -Gort
Gcre-JctN ofMciu
of Meiu -Yayu V-ni-Kumvabc
313                  274
241                  311
274                  492
174 316
IS! 1,023
64             562
4             433
66              364 66             285
72             396
492                          Hl
558
92
798                          88
1,497
98
1,667                         106
"'Gidanu-Gimbi Rood GaidamJet W of Kake
. J  w or take -Cbanka
d
Uianki - Jet WofYubdo jci W of YoMo-Guilffl GlllIw -Inaugo
121
175
251
251
153
43                      23
121                      35
355                      57
462                       61
517 47
155                    55                          28
224                  155
44
322 455 70
322 592 74
196 662 55
"fep-MLZiin Tefen Shishinda
Rd
Tcpi vM D-an Teferi
Mizan Tcfcri-Jct W of Wachs let W of Wachs-Shi shuida iTepi-ShiMiuncb Direct Road)
177
432
297
284
185
407
538
70S
38 254
89 561
72 386
57 403
265 □2
553 113
723 90
295
78
Cimbi -Tepi Road
Jcr S of Giinbi-Yirga Degen Virga Degen -Supe
Supe-jct N of Mehi
JciNof Metu -Gore
Gone-Lalo Jet
Lalo Jet-Gee ha
Gecha-Tepi
191
199
297
(above)
171
110
182
96
122
319
i. above :■
75
43
48
36              309
39             323
63              482
32       (above) 21             259 33             167
276
155
19“
522
(above)
114
65
73
58
61
99
48
31
49
4*2, Methodology for Estimating Future Air Traffic
As  noted earlier, the numbers  of air passengers  flying to and from various  localities  within the Baro-Akobo Basin has  fluctuated widely  in recent years  because of instability  and large shifts  in population Furthermore, the lack  of seat capacity  on aircraft serving the area may have been a restraint on the number of passengers  at times  when other factors  might have favoured continued growth. Nevertheless, traffic  at four ot the six  airfields  in the area has shown a strong growth trend during the early  1990's  While it is  difficult to establish any 
■Ong-term   historical   rates   of   growth   or   the   numbers   of   air   passengers   at   the   present   time   under normal   conditions,   further   increases   in   traffic   can   be   expected   as   long   as   there   is   continued stability   h   jj   assumed   that   this   growth   will   be   comparable   to   that   experienced   in   Africa   as   a whole,   as   recorded   by   the   International   Civil   Aviation   Organisation   during   the   last   15   years, though    stronger    growth    is    assumed    in    early    years,    particularly    at    Asosa    and    Tepi,    it !rn Provements are carried out.
as ^rn^>e'a ar,d Asosa airpons, an average of passenger volumes in the last two years is used th 8|^ear fi£ure *s,’malcs of future traffic, while at the other airports an average of
seat431 ^rCC ^'CarS "S USed For t-’am^>e'a an<^ Asosa, it is assumed that if there were sufficient on aircraft serving these airports, a 25% increase in the number of air travellers would
tJL?  within a very short period of time This amount, therefore, is added to the base year
1
c at these airports before projections of future traffic arc made At Gambeia. higher TAMS-1’LG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
15SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX SC ECONOMlCjNFRAgTRb
crowth     rates     are     assumed     than     recent     traffic     figures     would     indicate,     sincTr^^^^'
^rraunding weredas are expected to have relanvely high increases in
.
economic activity. A growth rale that
is 50% above the expected rate of n L^. ^C'
o
ps
each period is. therefore, used in estimating future traffic at Gambell A^ "
growth rates and estimates of future air passenger traffic at each of the airpo?°n' J in me following table-
Table 6 Future domestic air passenger traffic Arrivals and Depart
s prej^
Airport Base
Year
Growth
Rate
2000
Growth
Rate
Gambela                  5,145             5.4%
8,820
7.65%
Dembidolo                3.400           6 75%
5,030
5 4%
Asosa
2,440             8 1%
4,865             6.75%
Gore
1.895
6.75%
2,805
5.4%
Tepi                          3,255
10/8%
6.025
6.75% “
Turn fMaji)               2.980
6 75%
4.410
5 4%
2015
26,650 11,075 12,960
6,175 16,050
9,7 OS’
Growth
Rnie
5.6% 3.6%“ 4 5% 3 6% 4 5% 16%
These figures  would translate in the Year 2015 to about 100 passengers  per peak  day  (or tie
equivalent   of   two   ATR-72's   or   a   smaller   commercial   jet   aircraft)   at   Gambela.   about   60
passengers  per peak  day  at Tepi and lesser numbers  at the other airports. Daily  service caild thus  be i justified at these two airports  but less  frequent service would still be provided at lie other airports
S UI.G Baro-Akobo River Buin Integrated Devdopwcnt MaStL’r
20ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC IN FKA STRUCTURES
g!0
ClO-ECof>OM1CS
DEVELOPMENT        OPTIONS
. 1 Proposed road improvements
urpose   of   the   road   improvements   in   the   road   sector   that   are   proposed   by   the   project
. , i's    initially    to    improve    those    roads    in    the    Projeci    Area    that,    because    of    their    present ^^dition    leave    large    number    of    people    isolated,    with    no    access    to    needed    goods    and C °^ices   or   to   markets   for   their   output   Related   purposes   are   to   bring   all   roads   in   a   particular road   class   up   to   a   uniform   and   acceptable   standard,   and   to   extend   regional   road   networks   to Xas   that   are   poorly   served   or   not   served   at   all,   where   doing   so   will   not   open   watershed forests   to   further   degradation.   (Jn   this   context,   it   is   suggested   that   a   minimum   acceptable standard,   for   all   but   on-farm   roads,   is   a   road   that   is   raised   above   the   surrounding   land,   to ilJow   it   to   drain   properly,   and   thaL   has   an   all-weather   surface   of   crushed   stone   or   gravel). Subsequently,   it   may   be   proposed   that   certain   roads   be   raised   to   a   higher   class   (e   g   from regional road to major link) to which higher standards apply.
Proposed   interventions   in   the   road   sector   fall   into   two   basic   categories,   each   of   which   has similar    Pro-Formats    The    first    category    includes    projects    for    the    rehabilitation,    upgrading    or construction   of   new   trunk   roads   and   major   Links   not   already   included   in   the   1997-2007   Road Sector   Development   Plan,   as   well   as   some   key   regional   roads.   These   three   types   of   road projects    are    proposed    below    for    inclusion    in    a    subsequent    (    or    parallel)    program    of improvements   on   the   basis   of   three   factors:   [ij   the   current   condition   of   the   road,   (ii)   the population   or   potential   developments   that   will   be   served   and   (iii)   reasonable   confidence   that the   improvement   will   not   further   threaten   any   watershed   forest   by   making   it   more   accessible Each   of   these   roads,   as   well   as   any   important   regional   road   serving   a   wereda   town,   is individually    identified    by    its    end    points    The    second    category    covers    the    upgrading    and
den  si  fi  cation'1    of  the  networks  of  regional  and  local  roads  with  in  a  single  wereda  or  group of   by   this   study,  these  roads   are   not  individually   identified   but   a  general   standard  of  coverage is   applied   and   it   is   assumed,   on   the   basis   of   earlier   observation,   that   existing   roads   at   the regional and local level are. for the most part, in poor condition
Stl Rehabilitation, upgrading or construction of trunk roads and main links
The Road Sector Envelopment Plan of the Ethiopian Road Authority already includes projects for upgrading the three trunk roads that penetrate the Project Area from gravel -
s aced roads to paved roads Therefore, outside of possibly widening all bridges on trunk 
° a ,s to a minimum of 8 tn, clear, between railings, farther improvements to these roads are n °t -ncluded among the proposals set forth below. However, (he consequent need for a higher
<an aid of routine and periodic maintenance and, thus, the need for a more effectively m ctured and better-equipped maintenance organisation is stressed.
TeP
Do^
I
projects for improving major links within the Project .Area are proposed for
S! le inclusion in a road sector program
^■sconstruct the north-south road that extends front its junction with Route 5, just of Gimhi. to its junction with the trunk road from Metu to Bedele, in
TAMS-ULG Bjin>Ak<ibo River Basin Integrated De*elopmcnt Master Plan
21SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC LNFRaSTi).
Y
i
accordance with Rural Road Standard RR 50. The northern ]05 ktll f
currently impassable in the rainy season and requires substantial improv?? «
the southern 46 to 47 km has an all weather surface Work will includ? «. W
e
e
roadbed, where needed, to ensure adequate drarnage. widening the J?Isin8 minimum of 6 5 m providing 0 75 m shoulders, placing 25 cm of
gravel subbase and constructing necessary culverts and bridges to
'<= a s 'On« *
standards.  The  estimated  cost  of  this  project  is  90,400.000  Birr  and  ann??  ErA
routine and periodic maintenance will average 2,930.000 Birr
(B)  Reconstruct the east-west major link road from Gidami to Chanka and d
a c °«ts fCr
repairs and regrading, plus some widening, from Chanka to Inango and th 'n'n°'
the junction with Route 5, west of Gimbi.
in accordance with Rural R  d St t
oa
01
50 The western 73 to 74 km of this road is passable only in the dry «
requires major improvement while the eastern 107 km has an all-weather* ?*
Work will include the same items as Project (A), above. The estimated cos/??
second project is 82.000,000 Birr, while annual maintenance cost will a°
3,500.000 Birr.
(C)      Reconstruct  the  north-south  major  link  that  joins  Bambasi  with  Gidami.  through Begi. in accordance with Rural Road Standard RR 30, with possible later upgrading to RR  50  Most  of  this  road,  about  110-115km  long,  is  suitable  only  for  use  in'dn weather  and  requires  substantial  rehabilitation  Work  will  include  raising  much  of  the roadbed  to  ensure  adequate  drainage,  widening  the  roadway  to  a  minimum  of  6m, providing  0.5m  shoulders,  placing  and  compacting  15-20  cm  of  crushed  rock  or  grad subbase   and   constructing   necessary   drainage   structures   to   the   appropriate   ERA standard The estimated cost of this project is 48,500,000 Birr The average annual cost of maintenance will be 2,200,000 Birr,
I'D; Reconstruct the direct roadfrom Gambela to Dembidoio and undertake minor repairs to  the  road  from  Dembidoio  to  Chanka  to  bring  both  segments  into  conformity  wit- Rural Road Standard RR 50. Because of the poor condition of the direct route between Gambela  and  Dembidoio.  vehicles  currently  use  the  more  circuitous  route  via  Mu?- which  adds  29-30  km  to  the  trip,  in  each  direction  The  70km  long  road  ascending  U* escarpment    from    Gambela    to    Dembidoio    requires    major    rebuilding. continuation  of  the  road  for  another  82km,  up  to  the  junction  near  Chanka,  ne  s minor  improvement.  Items  of  work  are  essentially  the  same  as  indicated  a Project   (A).   The   estimated   cost   of   this   project   is   79,000,000   Birr   an maintenance costs are expected to average 2,460,000 Birr.
»
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master< \i [CS
n
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURES
PRO FORMA FOR RECONSTRUCTION OF MAJOR LINK ROADS
, Sector Roads
" intervention Rehabilitation and Reconstruction of Major Link Roads 
dr
3       Rationale To increase access of population to goods, services and markers
4          Beneficiaries   Primary   beneficiaries   will   be   operators   of   transport   services   but,   as   long as    a    climate    of    competition    is    maintained,    the    entire    population    will    benefit    from improved access and lower transport costs
5           Acceptability    Since    the    work    involves    the    restoration    and    improvement    of    existing roads, no problem of acceptability is foreseen
6          Application   The   only   limit   on   the   appropriateness   of   this   intervention   is   the   economic feasibility of the individual projects
Descriptions
7.
Locations:   Locations   of   individual   projects   are   stated   in   Section   5   1   1(A)   through   (D) above
Extent Road lengths are given in (A) through (D). above
9       Employment      By      permitting      the      development      ot      new      economic      activities,      the improvement of roads is expected to have a positive impact on all employment
1U
11
12
13
14
Financing. Trunk  road and major link  improvements  arc  funded by  the Ethiopian Road Authority: Establishment of a dedicated road fund, which will receive moneys  from fuel taxes, license fees  and vehicle inspections  for use by  the E R..A, is  currently  being studied and is expected as early as July 1996.
I
rmpiementation. Design, construction and maintenance will be managed by the E RA
Institutional   Support,   This   will   be   provided   by   the   E   R   A,   in   accordance   with   its   legal mandate.
Infrastructure As noted earlier, adequate maintenance of the rebuiltt roads 
more effective maintenance organisation, with repair shops . q
within the Baro-Akobo Basin
Legal    Aspects,    The    E    R.A.    legally    empowered    to    initiate    and    undertake    those    road projects for which it has the funds
Risks  The  risks   are  the  same  as  for  any   other  set  of  highway  projects  and  considered  to he within an acceptable range
" TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo Rher Basin Integrated De dupmeQC Mailer Plan
23SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC L\FR
AS rKt;c
^
16
Sustainability Continued use. operation and maintenance of the propoSetj require that the ER A. or a successor organisation remains in existence
r oad5
17 Environment In as much as the proposed projects involve the restoration of.* ■
road facilities, with only minor alignment improvements, the environmental
impa ^^
c
expected to be minimal
IS Gender; Bv providing both men and women with greater access io market places 
more economic opportunities, improved roads should have a positive impact 0]]^
lives of both
19     Health Improved roads will provide people in the area with better access to clinics and
other health facilities and also permit health workers to reach more people,
20      Social Sen ices: The effect of improved roads will be much the same as for health
2! Multipliers: By  opening up, particularly  the rural areas, to outside services  and markets, improved roads  are expected to have significant multiplier effects, beyond those tint have been identified in estimating future traffic
22. Conflicts, since the road projects involve the reconstruction of existing facilities, it is 
expected that conflicts can be minimised.
________________________________________________________________________________________
5.  1.2 Construction of new trunk roads and major links
Only  one proposed project involves  the construction of an entirely  new road and ths  is intended as  an alternative to a road that is  included in the Road Sector Development Plan in order to avoid potential destruction of much of (he remaining watershed tores* ‘Js alternative is as follows
(T ) Construct a new road from a point on the road to Dima about SOkm
Tifari, through Gurafarda, to Gog as a substitute for the road proposed in t e Sector Development Plan from Godere (Meti) to Abobo, which would open a
oi watershed forest to potential destruction It is believed that a route fart-her  ^or pass mainly through savannah and degraded forest land It is estimated t a link road, if constructed to a Rural Road Standard of RR 50, would cost 3 ^vfr. more than the Godere-Abobo road, or about 153,000,000 Birr. It 'WUyu and. provide the wereda town of Gurafarda with an all-weather link to the outsi were constructed initially to, say an RR 30 Standard, the initial cost may L
,000,000 Birr. Annual maintenance would average about 3,200.000 Birr*
TAA1S-T LG Bir^Akobo River Basin Integrated Development MaJf'r F,W‘5 qcto-eco*q>1IC5
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC IN FRA STRUCTURES
PRO FORMA FOR NEW MAJOR LINK ROAD
ggsicJDaja
Sector' Roads
Intervention; Construction of a New Major Link Road
p_a(:onale   To   increase   the   access   of   the   population   to   goods,   services   and   markets,   to provide a better link between two communities of the same ethnic group that are now
alternative    to    the    route    proposed    for    this    major    link    in    the    Road    Sector    Development Plan
4      Beneficiaries      Operators      of      transport      services      and      the      population      of      The      area, particularly     members     of     the     communities     rn     Abobo,     Gog.     Godere     and     Gurafarda weredas that are now isolated
5.         Acceptability:   Whether   This   alternative   route   is   acceptable   or   not   will   depend   upon   two factors,   which   need   to   be   studied   further   One   is   the   degree   of   convenience   it   offers, compared   to   the   route   proposed   in   the   Road   Sector   Development   Plan,   the   other   is   the extent to which this alternative truly does avoid the move valuable watershed forests.
6.          Application.    Three    hmitalions    on    the    appropriateness    of    this    new    major    link    are    its economic    feasibility,    its    relative    convenience    and    the    extent    to    which    the    road    avoids the high watershed forest areas.
QescriptiQn
ZB. Location and Extern of the proposed new link, arc give in(E), above
The   answers   for   Headings   9   through   15   are   the   same   as   those   provided   in   the   Pro Forma for Projects (A) through (D) and are not repeated here.
Sustainability See the Pro Forma for Project ( A) through (D)
&    ^i^nder,    through    Multipliers'    The    answers    for    these    headings    arc    the    same    as    those provided in the Pro Forma for Projects (A) through (D),
TAMS-ULG Bara-A kobo River Basin Ju ic"r ited Development Master Plan
25SOCIO-ECONOMICS
annex 3C economic infr
1
s. /..» KMilitanvn and Upgrading of key Regional Roads
The following projects Me presented as being representative of the improvements ik earned out cn the more important regional roads, in order to provide all-weX** ^
"trrda io«tj that do not enjoy such access at present The projects include Uo r to northern, more heavily populated, pan of the Project Area and one in thc Soulh
UX1 332 km in length and. thus, equal a little over a fifth of the roughly J 500 kni r°«j regional roads in the Project .Area
(F)  Reconstruct the regional road from the junction north of hiio Kilg fg
thence to Supe, on the main link between Gimbi and Metu. in accordance T Road Standard RR 30 This 83 km road passes through a densely populated joins two major links that are thc foci of Projects (A) and (B) A 9 kfn segment
north end of this road and a 20 km segment at the south end are both in reaso^? good condition but the 54 km segment between Lalo Kile and Dupa is undent?'
01
need substantial rehabilitation Work in this segment would include raising the roadb ° widening the roadway to about 6 m, providing shoulders of 0.5 m  placing
=
compacting 15-20 cm of gravel subbase and construction of drainage structure
accordance with appropriate ERA standards. In the two end segments, minor repair
work and regrading will be needed The cost of this project is estimated to be
27J00.000 Bin and annual maintenance costs will be about 1.189,600 Birr
(G)      Reconstruct   the   regional   road   that   extends   from   the   junction   on   the   Ciianka   -   Gffljj road  west  of  Yubdo  to  another  junction  east  of  that  town,  goes  south  to  the  fpwi  of Debeso   and   then   east   to   a   junction   west   of   Virgo   Degen   on   the   major   link   nod between     Gimbi     and     Metu     This     road     improvement,     which     may     serve     mining developments    near    Yubdo,    would    also    be    rebuilt    in    accordance    with    Rural    Rod Standard  RR  30  The  first  13.5  km  of  this  road,  west  of  Yubdo,  is  in  good  condition  bn the   condition   of   the   remaining   62   km   is   either   poor   or   unknown   The   items   of   won would    be    similar    to    Project    (F),    above    and    the    estimated    cost    of    this    project    u 28,400.000 Bin. .Annual maintenance costs may average about 1,089,300 Birr
(H)    Improve rhe road from the junction, a few km west of Mizan Teferi, to A*® thence past the airport for Maji, at Turn, to the junction located west of Wj,
road to Geba Approximately 90 km of this road, between Mizan T eferi an. fair to good condition, though beyond the coffee plantations southwest of i • it is built to dry weather standards only. Just south of Dima, however, the ro the Akobo River and the 83 km between the river and the junction sou Airfield consist of a dry-weather road in poor condition. If the new major in Project (E), above, is built to Gog from a point on the northern part of1 is constructed loan RR 50 standard, then the first 50 km of this road tronu
>
jefcr
should also be built to the higher standard and be upgraded to a major ■
inC w
| di5S
cost of the road improvements in this case would be about 82,000,00'- an allowance for a bridge over the Akobo River. If, on the other ha  ■ link is built initially to the lower RR 30 standard, this road should also accordance with that standard throughout its length. Lhough fitst considered as a major link road Road improvements carried outa
aw er. RR jq standard, are estimated to cost about 70,00 , . fjrsi maintenance costs are expected to average about 2,730,000 Birr, m 2.480,000 in the second case.
TAMM LG Baro-Akobo River Batin Integrated Developmcut
0
with
AnsoCI0
.economics
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRASTRl CTl RES
PRO forma FOR IMPROVEMENTS TO KEY REGIONAL ROADS
1
J
4
5
Sector Roads
Intervention: Rehabilitation and Upgrading of Key Regional Roads
Rationale   To   increase   the   access   of   people   living   within   heavily   populated   weredas   to   J goods, services and markets.
Benefictaries    Local    providers    of    transport    and.    if    a    competitive    market    is    maintained, all residents of the affected weredas
Acceptability     Since     the     work     involves     the     restoration     and     improvement     of     existing roads, no problem of acceptability is foreseen
6.     Application The only limit on the appropriateness of this intervention is the economic) feasibility of the individual projects
Description
7.
Locations The location of each project is given in (F) through (H), above
8         Extent The length of each road is shown in (F) through (H), above
9       Employment.     By     opening     the     affected     weredas     to     new     economic     acnvcies.     the prapoid      road      improvements      will      have      a      posttive      effect      upon      employment opportunities
10.    Financing     The     1997-2007     Road     Sector     Development     Plan     includes     a     10-year investment    program    for    regional    roads,    though    individual    roads    are    not    specified    in published   materials   Under   the   recently   promulgated   law   that   defines   the   powers   and responsibilities    of    regional    governments,    it    is    foreseen    that    the    regions    will    to    an increasing   extent   have   their   own   road   programs   and   budgets   tor   community   needs   The next   few   years,   therefore,   will   be   a   transitional   period   but   the   E   R  A   will   continue   to play   a   role   in   funding   and   managing   the   construction   of   regional   roads,   particularly where local capability is deficient Imp
11.
Implementation: \Yhile no specific  funds  have been allocated for Projects  (F),(G) and (H), under the circumstances  described in 10. above, a road with strong economic prospects may stand a good chance of being built
gOKfljrueff1 ,t
___________ —______________
TAMS-Lit C Baro-Akobo River Baiin tnie»mletj DeyTJopr^n Mui7p-dn’
ITSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRaSTR^^.
12    Institutional Support The E.R.A is currently responsible fbr the
construction of all roads, outside of those built solely with community 
noted above, it is expected that the regions will assume increasing respon v*5 preparing and undertaking regional road programs, as they develop theS'blllty foil capability in coming years. The E R A. will, however, retain the authorin ^c****?
' 0 dtfine standards, plan the overall system and approve regional designs 
13   Infrastructure: In addition to planning and design capabilities, regional aov 
must also expand their capacities to undertake routine and periodic road mamie^^
14.   Legal At present there is a conflict between the statutory responsibilities of the E R regarding roads, and the newly expanded powers of the regional governments but thi
expected to be resolved in the near future
5.    Risks The risks are the same as for any other set of highway projects and are considered to he within an acceptable range
mpact
”“
16    Sustainability'   The   need   for   greater   maintenance   capability   within   the   regional governments has been noted, above.
17.   Environment  Insofar  as  the  proposed  road  projects  involve  the  restoration  of  existing road facilities, with only minor alignment improvements, the environmental impacts are
18.
expected to be minimal
Gender Both men and women are expected to benefit from the greater access  to markets  and enhanced economic  opportunities  provided by  the proposed road improvements
19     Health.  Improved  roads  within  the  weredas  will  provide  people  with  better  access  to clinics and other health facilities, also allow health workers to reach more people
20.    Social Services: The effect of improved roads will be much the same as for health
Multipliers By opening up rural areas to outside markets and  ®7’^
s
e
improvements are expected to have significant multiplier effects, beyond
have been identified in estimating future traffic volumes.
22.    Conflicts Insofar as the proposed regional road projects involve the reconstru
existing facilities, it is expected that conflicts can be minimised _------------------------—--------- I /grading and expansion of road networks within the Weredas
In addition to the rehabilitation of the major link roads and key regional
.Area, it the rural population is to gain real access to the outside world, 1 C _|e five
roads and tracks that reach the small settlements and individual farms where pe^ dcv€|op^ also be improved over time Furthermore, some new local roads may nee 1
Because of the large area embraced by this study, howev er, and the large n TAMS-l LG Barer-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master
o f tni^
. cr ofr0>-COMICS
A ™EX 3C ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURE,;
'------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- w ,„v0|ved. minor regional road, and local road, « it atmd
■nt n>»y M ^ (jd.
” „ be considered on an area wide basis and tor a representabve area. >
t
_             r l a-
fl nossible target is established ot 0.6 km of minor regional and local roads _
th>rC' cultivated area in 2015, which would be reached by that date through programs 
ffJ"* Nation. upgrading and new construction This target does not include the numerous farm access roads, which are likely to be eanh roads built with hand labour or
>’1^' h |ncjividuai owners or community groups, working co-operatively.
jjiiinXi P°^e -
mmended standard for minor regional and local roads, on rhe other hand, is such that
:hfrSXds **11 recluire some he3Vy ecluipmenl for ,
th eir
.   instruction and maintenance
' foiE these roads would mainly be the responsibility of the regional governments,
later in the planning period some of the larger local communities may contract for the
^ruction of all-weather roads and acquire the heavy equipment necessary for their
pjimenar.ee
i- ij recommended that these roads  be built to a minimum standard equivalent to the Ethiopian Road Authority's  Rural Road Standard RR 10 The typical roadbed for each road uouid be raised above the surrounding terrain enough to allow proper drainage; the roadway wnldhave a minimum width of 4.5 m. plus  0.5m shoulders, and would have a crushed rock i; gravel sub-base al least 15 cm, in thickness  Cross  drainage and ditches  would be provided, as appropriate.
Fne   heavily   populated   weredas   in   the   north-central   pari   of   the   project   .Area,   where   almost of  the  people  may  still  be  living  in  rural  areas  in  2015,  have  been  selected  io  test  the
iasiDiihy  of programs  to improve minor regional and local road networks  These weredas  are '•DaleWabera, 10-Dale Sedi, 11-Lalo Kile, 13-Hawa Gelan and 24-Darimu It is  estimated L’at, ay  2015, their population will have reached nearly  433,000 and from 80.900 to 90,000 a ™'be under cultivation
ac h,eve the target set forth above, approximately SOO km of minor regional roads
lh°adS WOUld nCed l° bUUt lhe“ WeredaS> OVef 1 P®"013 Of 1 5 t0 18 yeaI5 S'nCe
^'■'E'Eipni6 r°ads maV already be included in the regional road program ot the Road Sector mert Plan, they may be started as early as next year
t8
2o,OOo m
h    COnSlRlct'on
Program    would    be    roughly    125,000,000    Birr    or    some    6,950.000
iD m  the   tot   ■   '7   anriua^y   During   the   first   ten   years,   this   amount   would   need   to   be   taken
^ ln r° all nf d
r
250,000 each year that is proposed in the Road Sector Development
aFpr°*idialed   <!S1On     4     Annual   maintenance   costs   at   the   ciose   of   this   program   would   be Penance2,5°0’000 B‘rr for routine maintenance, plus the same amount for periodic
file Sf>Q ]<
^?tal kI)a!t?1IlOr re8ional and local roads  in the selected weredas  represent about b%of
S
rOad3 ,n tbi* ^teirorv that may need to be provided wrth.lt the enrire
M fobe recb2, Var 2015. As noted earlier, a high proportion of this length of road will
strutted or 5 j||
u
as new roads
T ^‘ULG Barn-Akobo River Basin IntesraWd De elopmcnt Master Plan
29SOCIOECONOMICS
annex 3C economic ,nfrastr
.^
Lctl r
BaiiiDaia
I Sector Reads
Setuerks in S selected " ered“
........ . To wo,d the benefits of grate- access to goods, services and martas to
more remote rural populations
.Sriaries Local prosiders of transport services and. if a competttive make, i,|
5   Acceptability:   Many   of   the   proposed   improvements   will   consist   of   the   restoration   cfl existing  roads  and  should  generally  be  welcomed  by  local  residents  Where  new  roads are  to  be  built,  regional  authorities  will  need  to  work  closely  with  local  groups  to  ensure the acceptability of these roads
6.    .Application    Except    in    specific    instances    in    areas    that    may    be    environmentally sensitive,  the  chief  determinant  of  the  appropriateness  of  proposed  road  improvements would-be the economic viability of the local network
Dj5cripi>2ii
Location   Five   representative   weredas   -   Dale   Webcra,   Dale   Sedi,   Lalo   Kile,   Hawi Gelan and Darimu.
8       Extent:  Approximately 500 km of roads in an         area, within the     basin,   of 3,      *
.             vw^, - Minor Resiona' Road
9    Employment;    By    opening    areas    within    the    representative
,     . nCV,' economic wereaas 
possibilities, road improvements will have a positive impact upon emp oy
for
10. Financing, through 15, Risks: See Headings  10 through 15 in the Pro ^^^ents 
preceding group of projects, Improvements to Key Regional R°“s'
regarding     the     financing     implementation,     institutional     support,     ini authority and risks of regional road programs.
Impact
16 Su«ainabili
ly . 
So^ntments ha/k
-----to local ^ennotcd above In ™,ntenar><* capability within the rcg'O
leri
J
d for greater
as well
tWs capability will probably
--------- ------ ---------------------------------------------------
TAMS-11G Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Developing13*
30
% £<
S QClO-ECQNOWlCS_______________________ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURES
Tf'Environment For, many  of the road improvement projects, which will involve the restoration of existing facilities, environmental impacts  may  be marginal Where weredas  may  be involved, environmental effects  need to be studied on a case by  rase basis  during the design process  and appropriate mitigation measures  developed. If needed
1S Gender, through 21 Multipliers  See Headings  18 through 21 in the Pro Forma for the preceding group of projects. Improvements  to Key  Regional Roads, for comments regarding the impacts  of regional road programs  on members  of either sex, people's health, their access to social services and the economic multipliers that may applv
22.   Conflicts   The   restoration   of   existing   roads   is   unlikely   to   produce   many   conflicts   In   the case   of   new   roads,   potential   conflicts   will   need   to   be   addressed   and   resolved   during   thx design process.________________________________________________
5.2. Proposed Airport improvements
It is  noted that there are six  airports  in the Project Area that have scheduled service at the present time but only  one. Gambela, has  a hard surface runway  and ran accommodate aircraft larger than a Twin Oner
It   would   be   desirable   if,   by   the   Year   2015   or   earlier,   three   additional   airports,   one   in   rhe nonh, one in the south and one at Dembidolo, were to
*       have paved runways, 1600 - 1750 m long,
*      have ILS (Instrument Landing System) capability;
*      be provided with terminal facilities; and
*      be able to accommodate aircraft with more seat rapacity, such as the ATR-42 or,
perhaps, the ATR-72.
Most    probably,    the    northernmost    airport    would    be    at    Asosa,    where    the    existing    airport    is close  to  the  centre  of  the  urban  area  and  must  be  replaced  by  a  new  facility,  outside  the  city The    one    in    the    south    would    probably    be    at    Tepi    There    may    also    be    a    demand    for improvements   at   Turn,   since   there   have   been   rapid   increases   in   traffic   at   both   these   facilities in  recent  y  ears,  in  spite  of  the  fact  that  the  existing  runways  are  grass  and  the  airports  have virtually no associated infrastructure
Airport installations  for the Instrument Landing System include the local tier, which sends Ol * a radio beam to the left and riaht of the runway; the glide slope indicator, which signals whether an aeroplane is above or below the approach plane tor the correct angle oi decern,
system   of   runway   lights   These   installations   are   supplemented   by   a   set   ot   IL   mar   era lhat indicate how far an approaching aircraft is from the start of the runway.
B ^sed    on    the    foregoing,    therefore,    the    following    airport    improvement    projects    are    proposed t° Possible inclusion in an air sector program.
r
(A ) Restore the existing navigation aids (navatds) at Garn^ rSSe andttSwt a permit ILS operations, provide a terminal apron for aircraft ,
TAMS-ULG B^AWxi Rher Bum Integ^d
JiSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC LN'FRa
—— -------------- ---------------- - ------------ ---------------------------------------- —
new terminal building with approximately 6,500 sq m of interior s • parking It is understood that the existing runway was built to handle h
at ^cent
accommodate mid-range jets  (including the A310, B757 and DC-9) 4lrcra^ can
good condition The estimated cost of these improvements  is  about 35 fM 111 gen^aliv 
annual maintenance would be roughly 1,000,000 Birr
’
Birr
(B)      Confirm   the   suitability   of   the   site   for   a   mo*   at/porr   identified   in   the   municipal   p]anfor prepared   bv   the   National   Urban   Planning   Institute,   and   al   this   site   develop   a
naved runwav  1600 m long and 50 m wide While soil conditions  at the site must be thorouahlv  investigated before designs  are prepared, a flexible pavement runway  about 30 cm thick  on a fairly  well graded subgrade is  assumed for estimating purposes  In addition, the new airport should have an apron lor parked aircraft, a terminal building with about 1 500 sq m and parking space for vehicles, and the navaids  necessary  for ILS operations  The estimated cost of a new airport near Asosa is  about 65,000,000 Birr and annual maintenance will be about 2,000,000 Birr
(C)       At  the  existing  airport  m  lepi,  extend  the  runway  and  provide  a  paved  facility.  1600  tn by  50  m.  For  estimating  purposes,  a  30  cm  thick  flexible  pavement  is  assumed  Navaids necessary   for   ELS   operations   and   terminal   facilities   similar   to   those   indicated   for   Asosa are    to    be    provided    The    estimated    cost    of    improvements    at    Tepi    .Airport    is    about 60,000,000 Birr .Annual maintenance costs will be about 2,000,000 Bin
(D)      At Demhtdolo Airport, provide a paved runway, 1600 m long and 50 m wide Once
again, a 30 cm thick flexible pavement is assumed for cost estimating purposes As ai
.Asosa, navaids necessary for ILS operations and terminal facilities are to be provided
The estimated cost of these improvements is also about 60,000,000 Bin and
maintenance will require about 2,000,000 Birr, annually
At Turn Airport, and also at Gore .Airport, some improvements  may  be undertaken, to the extent thal the runways  would be provided with an all-weather surface of crushed stone or laterite and some modest terminal structures would be erected
32of  rO-ECONOM ICS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURES
I
PRO FORMA FOR AIRPORT IMPROVEMENTS AT GAMBELA,
TEPI AN D DEMBIDOLO. AND A NEW AIRPORT AT ASOSA
Sector. Air Transport
„     Intervention     Upgrading     of     three     airports     in     the     Baro     -     Akobo     Basin,     plus     the construction of a new airport at Asosa
*     Rationale.     To     increase     accessibility     to     Addis     Ababa,     other     localities     in     Ethiopia     and international destinations for residents of the Project Area and reduce travel costs.
4     Beneficiaries:     Primary     beneficiaries     will     be     airline     operators     but     if     a     climate     of adequate    competition    is    maintained,    the    population    of    the    area    will    benefit    from    the use of larger, faster aircraft, more frequent service and lower air fares
5.    Acceptability    The    primary    issue    of    acceptability    may    he    noise    However,    the    work    at three    locations    will    involve    the    improvement    of    existing    airports    and,    at    Gambela.    jet aircraft    have    already    been    used,    while    elsewhere    turboprop    aircraft    would    continue    to be    used    At    Asosa,    acceptability    may    be    increased,    since    the    airport    will    be    moved away from dense residential and commercial areas
6    Application    The    only    limit    on    the    appropriateness    of    this    intervention    is    the    economic feasibility of the individual projects
Descriptions
Locations: These include Gambela, Asosa, Tepi and Demb idol o
Extent: The work  comprises  upgrading the runways  at three airports, plus  restoration or provision of navaids  and development of permanent terminal facilities, including apron areas and vehicle parking, at four airpans.
Employment Each upgraded airport may  offer from 3 to 10 new jobs  directly  and improved access, plus  potentials  for air freight are expected to have a positive impact on employment.
llj      financing-    Airpor,    improvements    are    funded    by    the    C    A    A    from    rentals    received    from Ethiopian Airlines, other airlines (in the future) and various concessionaires
Implementation.     Design,     construction     and     maintenance     of     the     upgraded     and     new airports will be undertaken by the C.A.A., either directly or by contract.
L2
.
Institutional   Support:   This   will   be   provided   by   the   C.A   A.,   in   accordance   with   its   legal mandate.
1
J Infrastructure Access reads and power lines in die vicinity of each airport a-s well as 
domestic water supplies (probably deep wells) will need io be upgraded or installed as a
of the airport improvement program.___________________________________________________ __ TAMS-CLG Baro-Akobo River Basin IntegraTcd Development Master Plan
33SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3C economic
M, Legal Aspects The C A.A is legally empowered to initiate and undertake th0Se
projects for which it has the funds 
]r P'-n
15      Risks The risks are the same as those of any other public works project and
considered to be within an acceptable range.
are
Impact
16      Sustainability Continued use, operation and maintenance of all six airpons in  -
t
Project Area will require that the C A A or a successor organisation remain
existence
17. Environment: Five of the six airports in the Project Area are expected to continue to be
served by piston engine and turboprop aircraft only, which do not have a major noise
impact The existing runway al Gambela, however, is capable of accommodating
aircraft and, as traffic grows, it is expected that more of these planes will serve the area
Before jets are introduced on regular service, noise studies should be conducted in
deier-nune their impact on nearby settlements and to define what ameliorative measures 
may be needed
18      Gender The proposed airport upgrading program is expected to be gender neutral.
19      Health Improved access to the area from major centres may be expected to improve the
level of health care available to residents of the Baro - Akobo Basin.
20       Social Services The effect of upgraded airports upon social services in the area will he
much the same as for health care
21       Multipliers By improving access to the area from Ethiopia's major centres, the airpo -
upgrading program is expected to significantly enhance current economic multiplier5
22. Conflicts Since, with one exception, the airport projects described herein invol'«
upgrading (but not a major expansion) of existing airfields, it is expected that s
can be minimised. The one exception is a new' airport at Asosa. but this P  J 
ro
intended to remove a source of conflict by relocating the facility to a site outsi
city.
5.3 Proposed Improvements in the Electric Power Sector
5.  J J Electrification
jsfiedW4
It is  proposed that the needs  of the basin's  population for electricity  shouldIbe^ jelivtf basic  transmission line network  as  shown in Figure 10 of Annex  U This  ne pemb>d‘?>‘ power to all the main towns and will eventually be connected to the
Gambela and Metu when the ICS is extended
TAMS-lLGBaro-Ajfnixj Rhtr Baiin [nij-gry^ o^eJopracni Master ?|arlS QflO- ECO NOM ICS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC DTRASTRUCTURES
i S expected that the primary source of electnc energy in the Bara-Akobo Basin in the future
'iH be water power and that much of the electricity generated in the basin will be exported to
rest of Ethiopia. Therefore, the pattern of generation ana transmission will be determined
^.v the location and size of future dams and their associated hydroelectric plants, and the
location of inter-regional connectors Since the optimum size of an individual hydroelectric 
. t will undoubtedly produce more power than can be used in its immediate area, it is 
expected that these plants will be linked together in networks to promote a more efficient
nattem of utilisation This has begun to happen in the case of the Sor River plant .As these
networks develop, it is likely that small, independent generating facilities will be phased out
While a number of potential dam sites have been identified in the current study, and
determination has been made regarding the best sites and the scale and purpose of each dam
Thus, it is possible to know how the future electric power needs of communities within the
Project Area will be met and what the future paitem of generation and transmission facilities 
will look like One should refer to Annex iJ for a detailed presentation of the electric power
sector projections.
Two categories of hydropow er schemes have been identified medium large schemes that
would be connected to the ICS and which would supply power nationally, and small schemes 
that would be restricted to supplying power to the Region through the transmission network 
The Master Plan recommends the implementation of a programme of medium, large schemes 
as these produce power at a lower unit cost
5.X3 Renewable energy
The study  into renewable energy  identifies  potentially  attractive sources  of renewable energy, such as  niini-hvdro, wind power and solar energy  which could make a tactical contribution lo the electricity  supply  of small and isolated communities  Such energy  sources  should be seen as complementary', rather than rivalling larger generation schemes
TAMS-LLG Baro-Akobo River Busin Integrated Development Masicr Plan
35SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRASTRV
6.     ANALYSIS OF ROAD SECTOR PROJECTS
The   evaluation   of   road   improvements   within   the   Project   .Area   and   the   determination   ■ pnonties   are   based   solely   upon   the   following   econom.c   analyse   As   noted   in   a
section   the   Ethiopian   Government   is   current!)   studying   the   establishment   of   a   road which   will   receive   moneys   from   fuel   taxes,   license   lees   and   inspection   fees   and   hopes'?’ establish   this   fund   as   early   as   July   of   this   year   At   the   present   time,   however,   there   iTn° specific   mechanism   for   recovering   the   costs   of   road   improvements   from   highway   users   an? determining  the  extent  of  any  subsidies,  and  no  details  are  av  ailable,  as  vet,  regarding  the management  of  the  proposed  road  fund  I  herefore.  a  separate  financial  analysis  has  not  beer, made.
6.1 Basis for Estimating Project Benefits
While, as  noted earlier in this  annex, future traffic  has  been estimated on the basis  that road improvements  will have been carried out, the estimated increases  in production and consumption will come from many  sources  and additional investments, besides  road improvements  Therefore, in the analyses  that follow, the primary  source of benefits considered are the savings in transport costs that may result from the road improvements
Increases  in agricultural output and other economic  activities  are conservatively  assumed to result mainly  from other changes, such as  extension services  leading to better farming practices, including the use of fertilisers  and other inputs, investment in trade and local industries  and new incentives  stemming from more liberal economic  policies, even though i: is recognised that roads will play a vital role
Data on the costs of owning and operating trucks and other vehicles used to provide transport services in Ethiopia are very' limited but interviews with the managers of several quasi- private trucking companies provided members of the TAMSULG team with information on the amounts charged per tonne-km in various parts of the country and on roads with difFere.t surfaces and conditions
With certain exceptions, relating mainly to the costs of amortising vehicles owned Pre‘,0“‘ by the public sector, these companies are now operating under reasonably compel--^ conditions, so their charges can be considered a valid surrogate for the costs ot opera vehicles under various road conditions
Combining the responses received in these interviews indicates that, with a 10-1-'
l0 n
.  <}«
1
on paved roads whh average grades, charges per tonne-km mav be in the range of 0 > Birr, on gravel roads tn good condition the charge may be 0 5 to 0 8 Birr, and on unsui ( . ( ry weather) roads, when they are passable, the charge mav be anvwhere from '
Birr, or more The differences in these charges cover not only the differences tn th operating vosts of a vehicle but also the fact that on poor roads trucks may carry e
full load, thus making the cost to the shipper even higher
t" a, Pre'10us ^ion, passengers mav be carried by a wide variety of .^<r
data wero avariabl0?’ ™ibuses’ four-wheel drive vehicles and private cars, J
4 Cre ava,lable for tbe costs of operating these various types of vehicles
LTG Bjro-Akobo River Bavin Integrated Development Master PI* *
36<OCIO'ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURES
nfcvious  experience some average figures  have been selected, which can be desegregated ^hcn more detailed information becomes  available. While operating costs  for these vehicles wl il vary  widely, an average cost on paved roads  may  be about 1.20 Birr/km; on gravel roads this  average may  rise to I 40 Binkm. and on unsurfaced roads  where larger vehicles  could nnt venture, the average may be in the range of 2 6 Birr km
While the paving of the three trunk  roads  that penetrate the Project Area is  proposed in the Road Sector Development Plan, the analyses  made in this  study  indicate that I he farther paving of roads  within the area (i e. the major link  roads) would probably  not be justified in the absence of specific, large-scale developments  The savings  that are considered, therefore, are those that will result from upgrading these roads  from dry  weather roads  to all-weather roads, built in accordance with recognised standards.
for major links  and key  regional roads  that are currently  in poor condition, and which may  be improved to meet Rural Road Standards  RR 30 and RR 50. annual savings  to shippers  on freight transport costs  are estimated on the basis  of a savings  per tonne-km of 0.75 Birr and annual savings  to operators  of passenger vehicles  are estimated on the basis  of a savings  per km of 1.2 Birr Where road segments  are currently  considered to be in good condition but where some regrading and widening of the roadway, extension of the shoulders, and drainage improvements  are believed to be needed, savings  equal to one third of the above amounts  are used to estimate benefits
In the case of minor regional and local roads, which will be built or improved according to Rural Road Standard RR 10. annual savings  are based on unit savings  of 0.60 Birr/ tonne km for freight movements  and 1.0 Birr km. average, for passenger vehicles  In addition, if minor regional and local roads  are impassable during the harvest, it is  considered likely  that a high proponion of farmers' crops  may  he lost to spoilage while they  are waiting for transport, or may  not be harvested at all A loss  of 25% of their crop is  assumed, if these roads  cannot be used by  vehicles, A farm gate value of 500 Birr per tonne is  used for the produce that may  be lost
Ctl Review or Benefits and Costs
Utilising the costs  for individual project set forth in an earlier section and estimated benefits based on the figures  that are explained above, comparisons  of these costs  and benefits  are made in the following paragraphs, using standard economic measures.
Initially, a review of first year benefits  has  been made for each project, which makes  it clear tnat the economic  value of most of the proposed road improvements  is  heavily  dependent J Pon the rate at which farmers  adopt more modem agricultural practices  and gain access  to Jl Ws. such as fertiliser, and for other economic changes to take place
II  il  takes  fifteen  years  or  more,  after  road  improvements  provide  the  needed  access,  of  67  q    D °f   the   farmers   to   adopt   such   practices   and   gain   access   to   essential   inputs,   then   few   road Lr nprovemen(s will be economically feasible
II.   on   the   other   hand,   this   level   of   adoption   is   reached   within   say   five   years   after   the   road ‘mprovements arc carried out, most of them will meet minimum criteria for feasibility. In the
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo Rher Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
37SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCt
project  analyses  discussed  below,  therefore,  it  is  assumed  that  there  will  be  an  adequate
of response within five years or so
In the preceding section on Development Options, eight specific major links and key regio
roads, plus a network of minor regional and local roads in five representative wereda^ hav 
been proposed for analysis These roads were selected after taking into consideration
roads that are already included in the Road Sector Development Plan, estimated traffic leve^
in Years 2000, 2015 and beyond, existing and future concentrations of populatio$
development schemes that arc known so far and the location of environmentally sensitive
areas
With  one  exception,  the  results  of  the  analyses  appear  to  be  rather  disappointing,  with  internal rates of return that range from 5 2% to 116% 9 and 15 1% in the case of the exception
Il must, however, be recognised that these analyses  have been carried out on the basis  of conservative assumptions  and considering only  freight movements  and traffic  volumes  that are based mainly  on the items  described in an earlier section These include the adoption bv farmers  of modem agricultural practices, some development of tree crops  (in areas  away  from undisturbed watershed forests), some marketing of household products, consumption by  rural and urban residents and imports of equipment for mineral exploration
No major mining, industrial or agro-industrial schemes  have as  yet been considered Nevertheless, the results  do provide a preliminary  basis  for establishing relative priorities  and a program of road improvements
Major link  roads  and regional roads  are considered separately, inasmuch as  the first category would be planned and funded by  the Ethiopian Road Authority  and the second by  the Regional Authorities  Actual construction of both categories  of roads, however, may  continue to be managed by  the Ethiopian Road Authority  for at least the next few years. Since the Road Sector Development Plan runs  until Year 2007 and contains  three major link  road projects  in the Project .Area, other projects  be included among those shown by  region only. in the Plan and, therefore, may be undertaken as early as Year 2001
The  results  of  the  analyses  and  recommendations  for  individual  road  projects  are  described  in the following paragraphs:
(I)      Project E- Construct a new road from a point on Dima Road, about 50 ktnfro,rt Mizan Tefen, through Gurafarda. to Gog This road is recommended as a substitu for the proposed major link from Godere to Abobo, which is included in the Ro Sector Development Plan, since that road appears to expose high watershed forest potential exploitation and destruction. This recommended alternative appears to south of the undisturbed forests in the preserves and would provide all-weather a£^ to the wereda town of Gurafarda and a second, shorter route from towns in the So Baro-Akobo Plain to Jimma and the rest of the country It would also provide acces areas ot disturbed and open forest that have been recommended for the cultivafo eucalyptus poles The potential offered by these attributes have resulted in a
robust set of economic indicators, if the road is built to a Rural Road Stan fS
RR_>0 and 50 km of the Dima Road is rebuilt to the same standard These in i include an internal rate of return (IRR) of 15 1 %, a benefit/cost (B/C) ratio of ' a 12% discount raie and a net present value (NPV) of 35 264,200 Birr, also at 1-
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Inlegrated Development Master PLm
38ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURES
if   Tno>“e     detailed   studies   support   these   preliminary   results,   it project be undertaken in Years 2003 and 2004.
is recommended that this
project   B-   Reconstruct   the   east-^t
ma (/r
j      link   from   Gidami   to   Chanka   J   cl    and
undertake nunor repatrs and regrading from chanka Jet to Inango and thence to Ute 5. This  road will reduce the isolation of several wcreda towns  in the non h-west cm part of the Project .Area and provide access  to areas  of current and potemial production
o f cum arabJc  and other products  of cultivated forest lands. If the road is  rebuilt in Years  2007 and 2008. in accordance with the requirements  of Rural Road Standard RR 50. the IRK would be 11.6%; the B'C ratio 1.152, at a 10% discount rale, and theNPV 11,802.400. at the same rate.
Project C Reconstruct the north south major link road that joins Bambasi with Gidami, through Begi This  project is  considered important for providing the wcreda town of Begi and its  surrounding villages  with all-weather access  to Route 5 and to towns  in the south, as  well as  serving areas  of gum arabic  production, However, while this  road forms  part of the network  of major links, the estimated volume of traffic  and the weak  economic  indicators  suggest that it should only  be improved to met the requirements  of Rural Road Standard RR 30 If this  construction is  carried out in Years 2009 and 2010, the IRR would be 8 5%, the B/C ratio, al a discount rate of 10%. would be 0 S84 and the NPV at 10% would be 5.306. 300 Birr. The development of mining activities  in the area could improve these indicators  Otherwise, the applicable standard might be lowered further to Rural Road Standard RR 10
Project D- Reconstruct the direct road from Gambela to Dembidolo and undertake minor repairs on the major link from Dembidolo to Chanka Jet Even though (rucks have to drive on a indirect route that adds  29 km to the distance between Gambela and Dembidolo, this  route has  a relatively  high volume of traffic  ax  present because of the presence of check  points  on competing routes  This  is  considered a temporary phenomenon, however, and much of the added traffic  may  return to rhe other routes  it the check  points  can be removed and the paved length of the Bedele-Gambela trunk road is  extended to Gambela, as  planned In the analysis, it is  assumed that after this  is done, a third of the additional traffic  may  still continue to use the road through Chanka and Dembidolo On the basis  of this  assumption, as  well as  the traffic  estimates  based °n the methodology  and assumptions  outlined earlier, and if the direct road is  restored in Years  2009 and 2010 the IRR for the project is  10 8%; the B/C. ratio is  1 063, at a discount rate of 10%. and the NPV is  5.152.900 Birr at the same rale. Gambela and Dembidolo are two of the three largest cities  in the Baio-Akobo Basin and n new enterprises  of anv  size were to locate in one of these cities, these economic  indicators ^uld improve significantly  If not, then the direct road could oe rebuilt in accordance w ’lh Rural R d Standard RR 30 rather than RR50
oa
Project A- Reeonrtruer ,*e „<«*.««* major link
*»"'e S, near Grrrdri, rrr is junction with llu trunk road from
• mprovemer.ts to this major link road intended mainly to reta
^eral wereda towns in the nonh eastern pan of the Project
network of major links serving the Area, the analysis hasbee cameo os™ *e
“ T’*'',.
«is of
j
lhe roid b eine impr0VMl
l0 meet the requtrements of Rural Road atari RR
50 Estimated volumes of traffic on the northern portions ol the road honrnen Be _'«her low. leading to few savings in transport costs. Thus, the eeonorme md.catoSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRastP  < ii   .
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
■ C if rhe nroiect is deferred until Years 2014 and 2015 the IRR js on) thetc rano is 0 867 at a discount rate of 10%, and the NPV is -11.184.600
S     wonXad     to     the       requirements     of     Rural     Road     Standard     RR     3^ than Standard RR 50
Proposed reaional road projects include, firstly, improvements to three typical key reglonil
roads  that  “arc  identified  by  their  end  points  and  junctions  and,  secondly,  a  se
t   c[
imnrovements to minor regional and local road networks that are treated on an area wide basis and for which a target has been established basec on accepted standards
(1) Project F- Reconstruct the regional road from the junction north of Lal„ gjl( ,fl Dupa and thence to Supe, on the main link between Gimbi and Metu This road traverses an area with a large rural population and, while each end of the road is in fair to aood condition, the central portion is  understood to be in poor condition, thus isolating a large number of people, particularly during the rainy season Based upon estimated traffic  levels, with more modem agricultural practices  and increased mobility, improvements to this road would have an IRR of about 10% ,a B C ratio of ] 001 and a N?V of 29,600 Birr, if it were constructed in Year 2003 Deferral of the sun of construction would improve these economic  indicators  or, alternatively, the road may be built initially to Rural Road Standard RR 10 and upgraded to RR 30 in later years
S° 7 £ ^construct rhe regional road that extends from the junction of the Yubd°' ” anol^j^n east of Yubdo. where it
J
linkh^ ,
DebeS0 a nd hen
J'
tn th/. VeeH
10 a Junction west of Virga Degen on the major This 76 km road passes through an area that is similar
■
CSCn
-   10     Prccedin8   Paragraph   but   it   has   a   lower   population   potential
.f
CU   .  output  is  less  and  projected  growth  rates  are  low.  Even  if  construction  is 
w   Uh>d \ear \TV ' th£ 
economic indicators for improvement of this road are
*       1S
.. ’      ’ There are some mineral potentials in the area, however, and if these
6 2%’ 11,6 B/C rati° 31 3 diSC°Um r3te °f l0% iS 0 703 Wd
* /                  6 .econonuc prospects for the road improvements would be much
/. on 7^ thc
standard RR 10, rather than RR 30
standard for this road would be Rural Road
as ot? ?d P  ^n 
Geho tl,ence past ,ile airport at T ° JUnct*on' Seated west of Mizan Teferi, to
ro
T* 
urest ofMaji, on the road to Teferi to Maji. as well
are n« 
WOuId be u
Pgradec as
data at this time
C t0 man'’ re^?ees10 thf Dima
°fve/°Pment to pe^p he poPulai'on in the area and the potentials for
’ °ugh it appears to serve a number of'eo f improvements to this road to be
As noted in a previous
Q primary and secondary' roads within
TAMS-LLG Baro-Akobo River Buin Integrated Development Master Pla"
On fh  Pan °Tpr°ject E, above Unfortunately, thereANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURES
.  f  the  analyses  described  above,  for  two  of  three  representative  roads,  indicate ltie  resUbj:L  to  meet  the  requirements  of  Rural  Road  Standard  RR  30  may  be  economically that rcbUI,\-'Qpjv a portion of these roads: a larger share may be improved only to the level of gfo>ea° tini,,ally
am of road improvements should be spread out over a number of years and net
* concentratea
Also[he pr<cL _
the car v
|  years of the planning period
'ns  a  preliminary  program,  therefore,  it  is  assumed  that  one-third  of  the  key For   deve    °PV(   500km)   will   be   reconstructed   from   the   beginning  in  accordance  with   thr
tegional roa s requirements 
/y 
Road standard RR 30, one third (500 kin) will be reconstructed,
i         of RR IO and will later be upgraded to Rr 30. another one
, cqu rements
improved only to the level of RR 10 and a final one sixth (250km) will
^[erred until the second half of the planning period, i e after 2015
Regarding minor regional and local roads, the results of the economic analysis show a set of economic  indicators  that appear at first to be marginal but it must be recognised that these mads will be reconstructed over at period of 15 years or more and the analyst covered a set o' roads that would be rebuilt at the beginning of the period
Also, a number of roads are covered by this analysis and some of these roads may be very attractive economically  Others  may  become feasible at a later date, while yet other roads 
.nay  be  more  suitable  for  local  improvement  by  community  groups,  possibly  using  hand iabour and animal power
The economic  indicators  for the first increment of the proposed. 15 to 18 year program of improvements to minor regional and local roads are as follows: the 1RR is just shy of 10%. while the B/C ratio is 0,987 at a discount rate of 10% and the NPV is 107.000 But at the same rate
For the purposes of preparing a program of road improvements for the entire project Area, A 5 assumed that, of the estimated 3, 550 km of minor regional and local roads that would r.eeu to be restored or built, in order to meet the target of 0 6 km of such roads for each sq.km o- cultivated area in 2015, only two thirds (2360 km) would be completed within the 1997-201 - rime frame The remainder mav  have modest improvements  undertaken by  community groups  and then be completed to an accepted standard in the second half of the planning period
TAMS-C LG Bar^Akcbo River Basin Wsnrted Pevdopn.^ M««r
41SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3C economic
7. ROAD B1PROVEMENT PRIORITIES
Road improvement prionties and the resulting Sector Plan are based u
references. For improvements to trunk roads and major link roads between jotp tWo ma'n
the priorities established in the countrywide Road Sector Development Plan of b
Road Authority  are followed. For these roads  in subsequent years, as  well as  " ^°Pian local roads, the results  of the economic  analyses  described above art* nc™?1 reglOllal and
priorities.
Years 1997-20001 all of these roads are included in theR.S.D.P.)
uciennme
Class Region Road
New C
Length___ Srandarc
is
ML        11
Wacha - Maji
135 km
RR50
ML        12
Gambela - Jikawo
120 km
RR 30
Unaradine (Some work mav be onaointz i
T
4 & 12
Metu - Gambela
176 km
Paved
T
4&6
Gimbi - Asosa ♦
234 "
Paved
T
11
Jima - Mizan Teferi *
198 "
Paved
ML
12
Gambela - Abobo
82 ''
RR 30
Reconstruction. Upgrading and some New Construction RR .All Minor Regional & Local Roads 395 km
Total for Period
RR 10
£s25L£M[)
114,477,000
70,300.000
190,819,000
253,703,000
196,464,000
30,463,000
98,750,000
504.809.000
* These roads are mostly outside Project .Area and not included in the total for the period
Note :                   ML = main link T - trunk 
RR - rural road
TAMS-ULG BiF(HAkobc Rjvfr •Intesraled-DevdopmeaTM^ie^1211ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURES
,1       Dima Road Jet - Gog
T, A
r
ML    M
I       Jet.-Lalo Kile-Dupa-Supe JJ       All       Other Key Regional Roads
Length _ Standard 165 km RR 30 [nit.
S3 km RR 10 Mt 417* RR 10-30
^^rtnicHQn. Upgrading and $Qmg New Construction
RR All Minor Regional & Local Roads 655 km RR 10
Sub-Total
Add 10% allowance tor bridge widening & maintenance facilities Total for Period
__ CostCBnj
90,750.000
17,850,000
96,965,000
163,750,000
369.315,000
36.935,000
406250,000
Years 2006 - 2010
Class. Region
Road
Length. Standard
fteconstmciion and U parading
ml 4
Gidami-lnangO’Rte 5 _____
181 km
^IL 4 & 12 Gambela-Dembidolo-Chanka Jet 152"
Ml
Key Regional Roads
500 "
^J^lruct ion. Upgradj ng and so me New Constmcti on
RR Au
Add i rp ti
Minor Regional & Local Roads 655 “
Sub-Total
RR 50 RR 30 I nit. RR 10-30 RRI0
/Q a
..,
«owance for bridge widening & maintenance facilities
Total for Period
C ostfBirr)
81,935,000
59.075,000
115,640,000
163,750.000
42 0,4 50,000
42.050,000
462,500.000
TAMs-ULG Baro-Akoho Riser B.isio [nte^rjled        OcietapDim Master PlanMKIO-rCOWMICS___________ ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFlUSTm ( Tl Rj.
Year* 2OH • 31$ 
Clllt,
—
ROli
------- ------- -------  Length      Standard
——
RkcskfaUx ad LRpidSg
XU         4 Rtnbxw • GidiniJ
Ml        J           JcsSocfGrtsb’-MrtuJC RK 4 Yuhdo kx-Ytrga Degen kx RR All Other Krv Rcpcmal Roads
1M km    RR30 152 *       RR 30-50
76 *        RR 10 fait 424 -        RR 10-30
4 8/5C Cf/i
56 J 50 frYj
17,525 COO
98.537,0%
Reerrvrjctvn. L^fradmg and some New Construction
RR All Mmw Regional & Local Roads 655 ’ RR 10
Sab-Total
651.750.000
384.512.000
Add 10*. allowance for bridge widening A maintenance facilities                38.488 0%
Total for Period
423.000.000
Yean 2014 through 2035
A» a result of continued population growth and expanding economic activity in the Baro Akobc Bum in the ton following Year 2015, it should become possible to justify the upgrading of those roads built initially to lower standards in the earlier yean, as well u further improvements io trunk roads and major link roads and the building of additional regional and local roads
Therefore, expenditures on the road networks in the Project .Area between 2015 and .035 may be expected to continue at about the same levels as between now and Year 2015 U» would be about 425,000.000 Birr io each five-year Interval, or S5.000.000 Birr annually—
TAM^LLGBw^oRhtrDevdopmenTM^^*^tOFCONOMICS
ANNEX K ECONOMIC (NFRA^FJltcn RE5
POST AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS
(j Current Situation
7-eBaro-Akobo River Basin region is a large area ln Frh
jy^ems and other means of communication p «\ J?!* 
0
dements in the development process Curren- air, d ^'^^umcr^s jrr , &ices are discussed in the following paragraphs ' °W
XI. I PiKtai Services
to*'
'
[a [-3CX4. the domestic  postal communication had a volume of about 16 6 tnnhon term Demis of postal service coverage are not provided in the results of the surveys conducted w ar It is generallv assumed that most urban centres have rhe service although oot as efficient ind effective as  desired Improving the postal services is dependent upon impto-.cments in the transport services as postal deliveries arc rnostlv earned out through road transport. It s 
•xpected  that  these  services  are  relatively  less  difficult  and  less  expensive  to  extend  and improve
A/.J Telecommunications
The provision of telephone services in the Raro-Akobo River Basin regions are listed in the results of the 1994 census and recorded in the table below
Table 7 Telephone connections in the Project Arra
^elected urban Centre in the Region
j\scsa 
Pepibidolo
.Mett
.GcrT^
Percent of Houses with Telephone
_4 4_                  ____ j
2Ji
162 
32
JI
connections
tc
Th
. ^ ®titage of houses with telephone lines in Addis Ababa and other urban centres ta the
tr  h ^as been estimated from statistical derails produced by rhe CSA and indicates a rarje erenc® in te| phone connections between the capital and the rat ei the country ie
(fjw  ^
e
Addis Ababa
Other Urban Centra
^son of telephone service avadabihry in
4 *• ’
udtng Addis Ababa, shows that the urban cent .pttseax of a Ocularly Mttu and Gere are relatively better U shotid be nct<x
TAM5-ULG ainkAkobo Rixer lucrfrurJ Dodapraf 'LnOtr FLm
45SOCIO-ECONOMICS
. (atBedele)basattraC
3C  ECONOMIC INTRASTRUCnpftts
. ujoher level of communication facing ;<n
in
cIt should be noted that the provision of telecommunication services, as rec are low. However, the concerned authorities are aware of the situation and x
ompansonWtfi
F by tl e
,   C$a
rate of access to telephones when the Seventh Ethiopian Telephone Authc °U* ltnP °ve the
r
implemented in the next 5 years 
8.2 Appraisal of the Future Needs
y5
Like any other infrastructure, telephone services can only be provided with cm
justification to ensure sustainability and profitability The Baro-Akcbo River Basin'h"1'0
viable potential to develop The short and medium term needs can be assessed based o
present trend of the availability of the service In order to equate major urban centres 'o th*
of Metu, about 2,000 additional telephone lines would be required for the region Pcrba
more challenging and costly pan is to introduce a direct-dialling system to at least those
urban centres where there is sufficient economic justification Therefore, the medium term
objective for the region should be to extend the provision of telephone services to at least
3,500 housing units in the region and to improve the operator-assisted service to a direct
dialling system in the mean time
The cost estimated would vary, depending on a number of planning approaches  and parameters  Furthermore, since the Baro-Akcbo m er Basin spreads  over a long tract of land particularly  north to south, the alternatives  of accessing major urban centres  also matter Excluding basic  equipment costs  which the ETA would consider as  a significant capital project, the estimated 2,000 additional telephone lines  would cost about Birr 4 million, which includes  individual telephone sets  and the accessing infrastructure The regional telecommunication system would reach a reliable and efficient standard by  2035 al which rime the region's  economic  importance to the whole nation could have been proven and implemented to a significant level This  would mean that an up to-daie telecommuniotioi1 systems would be available in the region for business, education and other requirements
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akok. kiver Bum Intcjp-ated DrveJoptneni M<*ter PI*®s ocio-ecc  vomi
>        CS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURES
9 farther studies
9,1 Rond sector
The road improvements  discussed in this  Annex  are based upon reconnaissance-level survey of roads  and road conditions  in the Project Area, which was  quite general in nature A much more derailed inventory, km by  km, of these roads  - focusing upon surface and drainage conditions - is needed to develop preliminary road designs as the basis for accurate estimates of costs and more comprehensive analyses of feasibility
The foregoing evaluation of road improvement projects  has  been undertaken on the basis  of preliminary  estimates  of potential agricultural surpluses  and early  information on relatively modest development projects. More studies, based on the refinement of these estimates, as well as  comprehensive information on larger-scale development schemes, including power development, industrial spin-offs  and internal trade, are needed - in order to fully  assess  the demand for future road improvements  and determine their economic  feasibility. .Also, once a dedicated source of funds for road improvements and a mechanism for recovering their costs are in place, a comprehensive financial analysis  of rhe proposed improvements  should be made
9.2                 Air travel ind airport improvements
Once the analyses of the four (or more) airport improvement projects proposed earlier in this Annex  are completed and an order of prionties has been established, a comprehensive plan for airport improvements, as well as a plan for air traffic control within the Project .Area, can be developed and integrated into a national plan
Electric Power
Once the location, size and riming of hydro-electric  installations  in the Project .Area are determined, engineering and economic  studies  should be undertaken for the purpose of defining a comprehensive plan for a system of transmission and distribution lines, substations and supplementary power sources to serve the cities, towns and, later, the rural areas in the Basin and to determine the viability of these facilities
TAMS-V LG Baro-Akubu Hhcr Dulin Intctfratrd Dcvdcpmcnl Matter FinnISO CIO-ECONOMJCS
APPENDICES
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Deselopment Master PlanI
t
■I
I
I'S OCIO ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURES
^ppEN'DlX 1 RURAL ROADS STANDARDS3
The recommended categories  and related standards  of construction for rural roads  take into account that the standards  should be minimal but consistent with sound engineering practice. 4,5 the commonest load-carrying vehicle in Ethiopia is a two axle truck of some 17 tons gross weight, geometric standards should be sufficient for the road to accept such a vehicle.
Durin£ rair.y  weather lightly  trafficked roads  may  either be closed or restricted, but for the majority  of rural roads  the higher traffic  volumes  are seasonal in nature, related to agricultural production and normally occur in the dry weather
Although staged construction is  recommended this  principle should not be rigidly  applied if it involves  greatly  increased construction costs  on very  lightly  trafficked roads, eg in mountainous areas
The lowest categories, which are those with the least traffic, should be constructed by labour intensive methods  wherever possible and at low cost The standards  recommended for these categories should therefore permit the maximum use of manual labour and local materials
The lowest category  of road is  for dry-weather use only, and of minimum geometric standards It would be used where the average daily traffic < ADT) is less than 10 vehicles per day, and where weather closure is  acceptable It is  referred to as  class  RRIO. The next category recommended is for an expected traffic volume of 10 to 30 vehicles per day. 1 his is to be of a slightly higher standard than the above and will have a semi all weather capability. This  type of road is  classified as  RR30 The last category  recommended is  for an expected traffic  volume of 30 to 50 vehicles  per day  This  should be all weather and capable of improvement to higher standards when traffic requires it It is referred to as class RR50.
1. Road Class RR10
This is a road constructed to minimum standards, capable of carrying up to 10 vpd during dry weather, and closed to traffic during periods of heavy rain.
Construction standards are as follows:
a.
b.
c.
d
e.
.*
Road reserve
Cleared width Formation width Pavement
Maximum gradient Minimum        horizontal curve radius
30m This is considered a desirable minimum to permit future upgrading.
15m to 20m dependent on type of section, sight distance etc.
6m, but this may be reduced to 4m in difficult mountainous terrain where a 6m wide formation, in say a deep cutting with hard rock would lead to a greatly increased cost.
Imported gravel or similar surfacing is  not normally provided, but may  be necessary  over sections  of steep gradient or where subgrade soils arc particularly poor.
14 per cent 10m
__5oiyc _■ Ethiopian Road Amhcirity
TAMS-ULG B&n>Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master PlanSOCIO-ECONO.AflCS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRASTRf      ^
CTlR
Drainage
structures to t of simples nature, eg paved -     -
• j  drains cut by hand or machine. Cross drainaoe
dnfls
h Bridges
fords.
Not normally provided, where essential, would aenerall
of timber deck on masonry piers and abutments "
• be
2. Road Class RR 30
This road is constructed to higher standards than class RR10, to afford limited wet weath
capacity for light traffic and a normal maximum capacity of 30 vehicles per day Construction standards:
er
a.
b.
c.
d.
Road reserve Clear width
30m
15m to 20m
Formation width
6m and as for RRIO
Pavement
The running surface will normally consist of the in-$itu sub
grade material strengthened, in areas of weak local soils, by a
layer of selected material over the full 6m formation width
Where a compacted thickness of 15 cm surfacing of gravel or
crushed rock is required in particular sections, this will be
applied to the full 6 meters of the formation width.
e.
f
8
L
Maximum gradient
12 percent
Minimum horizontal
15m
curve radius
Drainage
Bridges
13       35
nin^^R ’ i Cross  drainage bv  means  of concrete
Pipes, slab culverts or paved fords
Bridges may be provided at non-fordable stream or river
crossings, although the cost of a substantial structure should
weighted against the acceptability (or otherwise) of a
possibly temporary- interruption of traffic It is often the best
so ution to adopt a stage construction approach in that, if
neges are required the abutments and piers should be ot
pttmanent masonry construction and with a minimum top
width of 6m Temporary decks should have a minimum
wt t of 4m, for clear spans of less than about 7m they 
s ou normally consist of timber beams and cross decking,
wi running-boards and/or diagonal planking
For clear spans of over 7m the superstructure should be of permanent materia s su (eg Bailey or similar bridging) or reinforced concrete
Design loadings to be H20-44
ch as
TAMS-liLG BanbAkoboRiverBasinIntegrity Dnelopment
Appendii 3CSOCIO-ECO|NO‘V,ICS
j Road Class RR50
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURES
This is an all-weather gravel -surface road Ils standards are the same as for road Class rr30. save for the following
2 pavement
The road is  normally  to be provided with a running surface of gravel or crushed rock  with a compacted thickness  of 15 cm over the full width of the formation In areas  of poor natural sub-grade, a sub-base of imported selected material may  be required over the full formation width
b     Maximum gradient                 10 per cent c     Minimum   horizontal 20m
curve radius
d Drainage
e     Bridges 
As for RR 30
As for RR 30
<
TAMS-ULG Ban>-Akobo Riser Basin Integrated Development Mister Plan Appendix 3CSOCIO-ECONOMIC
ANNEX 3D SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE
ANNEX 3D SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo Rher Basin Intep^tcd Dexdopment Master PlanAECONOMIC
ANNEX 3D SOCIAL IN
FRASTRUCTURE
CONTENTS
L
introduction..........
2.
CURRENT HEALTH SITU ATION I W■,■■■■'
■'! «W»| |««*a>»aia ■ ■ ■ I .»■•■>■■■*■ ■ ■ I »+*■*»•*
....... 2
2 I
Vector Borne Diseases
»•
t
......3
21.3
Yellow Fever
.... 
3I 32
33
3.4
General.......... . . ....................... ........................... Medical and Health Facilities
Comparative Position of the Region..................... Distances Travelled to Reach a Health Centre
...3
..... 3
.......5
......6
8
8
11
12
12
.... 
4
? 1 4
Schistosomiasis........
2.1.1          Trypanosomiasis.
21.2          Onchocerciasis
2.1.3         Malaria .........  .........
2.2       Sanitation
3 HEALTH SERVICES 114*9 ■ ■ ■ ■ if <««■■■■■ ■■■««««»•»V ■ ■>■■■***»•'
J
4.
h
NUTRITIONAL STATU S ».h««w»
5
6.
IMPACT OF STORAGE SITES AND IRRIGATION ON HEALTH.................................
14
HOUSING
6
I
General . . ........................
............................... —...... ..........
... ......................... ■ ...... .............
17
6
2
Current Conditions ...........
........................ ..... .......................
............ -- ...... ............... -............
17
TABLES
Table 1    Ethnic groups by location and occupation ............
1
Table 2    Morbidity statistics .........................................................................................................    -
Table 3 Diseases associated with water........................ ...................................... .............. ........ . 7
Table4     Immunisation rates in 1992, in rural areas(%).................. .... ................ ................... . .9
Table 5    Immunisation rates in 1995 (% of population)................... ................................................9
Table 6    Regional morality indicator by type of residence in       1984.......................................  10
Table 8    Differences in Facilities between National Average and the Project Area ..................... 11
Table 9    Morality Rates (Less than 5 years of age).....................................................................   II
I able 10 Distribution of Health Personnel................. ....................................... .......... .............. - 12
Table 11 Nutritional Status among children age 6+59 months in 1992 (%).................. ................ 13
Table 12 Evolution of project area population. 1995+2035................. ............. ............... ............ 16
TAMS-ULG BarthAkobu River Basin Integrated Dcvrlopiftenl Master Plan
3D-iSOCIO-ECONOMIC
ANNEX 3D SOCIAL ^HASTRlTtt ^
1. INTRODUCTION
This document gives an assessment of human health and sanitation in the Baro-Akobo nt
basin Its contents include a genera) discussion of health, health services, nutritional statu^
and the impact of water developments upon health For convenience, small tables are included
within the text, large tables and figures occur as an annex at the close of the document ?
With an area of 75,910 km3, the Project area covers  the administrative regions  of Gambda (Region 12), Oromiya (Region 4), Asosa (Region 6) and Region 11 of the SNNPRQ n,e population of the area is  about 2 million people who separate into different ethnic  groups (Table 1) The population density  varies  according to administrative region the lowest is Gambela (7 km'J), the highest Oromiya (54.5 km:), followed by Asosa (32 3 km'1) and Region 11 (24 2 km':). With an annual growth rate of 3 per cent, the population in the area is expected to be 5.3 million by the year 2035.
In Ethiopia continuous  population movement is  an established practice This  is  not limited to pastoral populations  only, but also occurs  among some agricultural communities  (Lindijpim and AJemu 1993) In the Project area, in addition to the indigenous population there has been a continuous in-flux of people from neighbouring Sudan (refugees) and from nonhem Ethiopia (resettled households  from the famine of 1985). Introduction of new types  of diseases  to an area with possible epidemics  from refugees  is  common A case in point is  the first Yellow Fever epidemic in Kurmuk and .Asosa (Region 6) from the Fung district of Sudan in 1959. As health planning depends  on the composition, growth and density  of a population, careful monitoring of this phenomenon is important.
Table 1 Ethnic groups by location and occupation
Region            Agriculture
Gambela
Other sedentary
Anuak   (48%) Majanger
Maj anger Shekocha, Anuak, Maj anger. Shuro
Transhumant Uncertain
Nuer (38%)
IUubabor Kefa
Oromo, .Amhara Oromo, .Amhara, Kefa, Gemira, Shuro/Tama, (Mesengo)
Me'enit. Sheko
Anfilo, Kame- Masongo. Longe. Opuo Bench
W’elega Asosa
Oromo, Amhara        Mesengo,  Mao Beni-Shangul
Source Baro-AkoboRiver Basm integrated Development Mailer Plan, Interim Report (1995)
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Easin Integrated Development Master Plan
5D- 1S OCIO-ECONC)MI<-
ANNEX 3D SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE
CURRENT HEALTH SITUATION
The health infrastructure of the area is similar to that of the rest of the country, with coverage rates  of 87% for Gambela, 60% for Illubabor, 66% for KefTa and 60% for Weliega (MOH 1992) Tabic  2 gives  morbidity  statistics  from the project area for the ten leading causes  of outpatient visits  As  the distribution and availability  of hospitals, health centres  and clinics differ in the regions, the morbidity  figures  reported for the different levels  (hospitals, health centres  and clinics) separately  are not used Instead, the figures  reported by  the respective administrative zones  are considered to be appropriate Due io the fan that reporting of diseases in the different zones varies, only the top ten common causes of out-patient visits are included here The missing figures  in the different columns  mean the corresponding diseases are not among the ten causes of out-patient visits in that particular zone.
Table 2 Morbidity statistics
Disease
Asosa
Ulubabor
Welega          Gambela          Maji
Respiratory tract infections                 13288
All forms of malaria
Intenstinal parasites
Diarrhoeal diseases
Urinary tract infections
1 Gastritis
I Eye and ear infections
Skin infections
tuberculosis
Rheumatic arthritis 
17633
17141
9264
900
8593
*
442
•
23589         33982            23791            7639 11556         29401             25250            2976 40058         41213             10462            5680 17462         15738             12545            3979
•
10322                                  1448            1589 16192         15693               2055           1791 12833         17538               4636                 w 24222         17263             10945            4276
*
* 1              559
♦
__ . . _ —
22784 6074 3084
•
Source. Ministry of Health. 1995
’ Diseases not reported among ten outpatient rrsits for the year report
Malaria, respiratory  tract infections  and intestinal parasites  are among rhe top three leading causes  of outpatient visits in all zones  Of intestinal parasites, the most common in reported cases  arc  due to helminthiasis, amoebiasis  and giardiasis  There are no reports  on cases  of AIDS for Regions  6, 11 and 12 The total reported cases  of AIDS from Region 4 between January 1986 and March 1996 are 1837, and that is 10.2% of al! reported cases of AIDS in the whole country  during the period Details  of the .AIDS situation in the Project area are scanty relevant information on reported cases in the whole country including occupation, age and sex  of cases  and the evolution of its  prevalence is  described in the project document Population Aspect, Section 4.4 4 Tuberculosis, which is  on the increase world-wide with AIDS, is reported among the ten leading cases in Gambela only This could be seen either as under-reporting or it may have been lumped with respiratory tract infections,
lhe total number of outpatient visits  for a period of one year (1995) in the project area is 103,810 in Gambela, 358,207 in Weliega Gimbi Zone, 296,102 in Asosa Zone, 636,204 in Ulubabor and 45,060 Maji Zone Except for malaria, none of rhe vector-bornc endemic
TAMS-L’LG Baro-Akntk) River Basin Integrated Development Master PlanSOCIO-ECONOMIC
ANNEX 3D SOCIAL LNERastri^
'
■——
diseases in the area like Trypanosomiasis, Onchocerciasis, Schistosomiasis and Y
are reported among the leading causes of outpatient visits This may be due' FtVer diagnostic facilities or may be few cases were seen in the outpatient departments             of
say, these diseases are important as they are endemic in this area
2.1 Vector Borne Diseases
The well-known vector-bome diseases prevalent in the project area are Trvoa
' t0
Onchocerciasis, Yellow Fever, Schistosomiasis and Malaria Dracunculus 8?
nnas  s
*>
commonly known as guinea worm, was assumed to occur in the whole country b * u been found to be based on faulty reporting (Kloos 1993). Extensive survey is determine its occurrence in the Project area Bancrofttan filariasis that causes ele ha • has been found in the lowlands of Hlubabor and Keffa (McConnel 1976) The paragraphs describe common vector-bome diseases in the area
0Wm?
2.1.1 Trypanosomiasis
The statistics for Trypanosomiasis are confusing. Gambela hospital reported 1 case in 1931 and 7 cases in 1985 In the upper reaches of the Gilo River, however, 454 cases were diagnosed during the 19 years preceding 1988, but these were not confirmed by laboratory tests  (Selkhozpromexport. 1988) The main channels  for the extension of tsetse to the highlands are the Baro River to the north, the Gilo River to the south and the Pokwo and Anel rivers to the west The areas along the Baro. Gilo and Akobo nvers were associated with most of the diagnosed infection/outbreaks (Hutchinson 1971), In tsetse infested areas of Gambela. Wellega, Keffa and Dlubabor, the settlement of highland populations by the government resulted in the introduction of new senices, but these were less accessible by the indigenous population
There are 4 types of tsetse flies, of which Selkhozpromexport (1988) believes two. tachmotdes and G. morsitans. are potentially important in the project area i
tachinotdes, the earner of the Gambian form of the disease, man is the reservoir of contagion
with morsitans, the Rhodesian form, wood antelopes are the reservoir ater is “ P
n
orta^‘^
insect breeding, and irrigation could increase the incidence of the disease The female eggs into moist soil, sometimes under pebbles The larvae dig into the soil where t ey about 3-4 weeks The flies are active during the daytime (Selkhozpromexport, 1988)
Continuous surveillance, diagnosis, and treatment of infected human cases is of 9ar3^eaith importance. Urgent need for ecological studies, improvement in human and veterinary^^ services, cost-benefit analysis to guide control programs, and greater use of trypan^ livestock and cultivation methods other than ploughing with oxen may nee implemented. Rwanda, during the 1980s, was partially successful in controlling combining the use of insect traps with habitat management (Paskett, 1983)
’ Z2 Onchocerciasis
II  is an established fact ,ha(
“'”d'7C'
°f
in illubabor. Ke® *
O 35.1S%) caused to
35
~  major vehirT^r™
0 (Budden ,98J>
UlGB»ro-Akobo r.v—n------------- inC!'easmg Onchocerciasis transmj^!.
r
Muter Plan
3D-3SOCIO-ECONOMIC
ANNEX 3D SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE
in Ethiopia (DeSole 1976). Large plantations  that attract labourers  on a seasonal or permanent basis, are a significant occupational risk  factor in the epidemiology  of Onchocerciasis. The resettlement program far drought victims  in south-western and north-western Ethiopia involved thousands  of persons  and contributed to the expansion of Onchocerciasis. State farms al on" river basins  like the Baro-Akobo. with their forest-shaded, fast stream environment, attract people into close Gy  contact The magnitude of Onchocerciasis  transmission and its sequelae mas  become greater than is  now realised The beneficial effects  of deforestation and (jam construction on the vector's  habitat may  be negated by  increased man-fly  contact. Transmission may consequently increase in such suitable environments
2,1.3     Yellmv Fever
The first cases  of yellow fever were reported in the second half of 1959 in Benshangul (now Asosa) in western Weliega This  is  recorded as  the first epidemic  outbreak  in Ethiopia. Considering the ecology  of western Ethiopia, the abundance of vectors  (Aedes) and wild reservoir hosts, extensive population movements, and recent acceleration in landscape change (deforestation, settlement patterns  and water resources  development), careful epidemiological surveillance is  required if yellow fever and other arbovirus  diseases  arc  to remain under control. There have been no official reported and confirmed cases  of Yellow Fever since the last epidemic of 1966 (Nlekonnen 1993).
2.1.4     Schistosomiasis
Schistosomiasis  is  a three-factor disease involving pathogenic  schistosomes, certain species  of aquatic  snails  and man The three related subsystems  representing different stages  oT the transmission cycle are (1) the man-host snail relationship, (2) the snail-parasite relationship and (3) the man parasite relationship The locus  of all three subsystems  is  water, the human use of which often results  in convergence of agent, intermediate host snail and human definitive host, Each of the three interfaces  is  strongly  influenced by  physical environmental and biotic  and human factors
Increasing population movements  in recent decades  and deteriorating living conditions  have facilitated the spread of Schistosomiasis  to areas  where it was  previously  absent The geographic  distribution of Schistosoma mansoni infection and its  intermediate snail hosts  in Ethiopia Biomphilaria pfeiffer and Btomphiiaria sudanica have been well described (Ayele, 1982, Kloos  et al. 1988; Lo el al, 1988. Ted! a et al, 1989) Similarly  Buhnus  off teams is identified as  the onlv  transmitter for Schistosoma haematobium m the Weliega focus  (Lo et al, 1982).
The host snail B pfeiffer. which prefers  small streams  and irrigation canals, is  by  far the mo$L common snail host for S. mansoni. In its  comprehensive study  of the Baro, Alwero. Chiru. and Gilo Rivers  prior to 1988, Selkhozpromexport (1988) detected no indication of Hiomphalana l intermediate host of intestinal Schistosomiasis) or Buhnus (intermediate host of urinary Schistosomiasis) They  conclude there are no characteristic  foci of Schistosomiasis  within the limits  of the lower basin, although infections  appear to have been imported to the area from other locations
The highly  localised distribution of the infection is  largely  due to altitude, through its  effects on temperature, rainfall, topography, population density, and the distribution and nature of
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Inlegrated Development Master PlanSOCIO-ECONOMICANNEX 3D SOCIAL LNFRastkt^^
surface waiers Rainfall during most of the year and corresponding fest stream flow
with relatively low population densities, are associated with low prevalence rates of f
cent in the western and southern regions (Kloos, 1993). which includes the project area. Ptr
2.1.5  Mdaria
About three-quarters of the total area of Ethiopia is estimated to be malarious, and about two
thirds of the inhabitants of the country are at risk of infection The annual incidence of malar
in 1989-90 was 21/1000 papulation based on statistics from the number of cases diagnosed microscopically. It excludes an estimated incidence that is three io four times that numbei
diagnosed on clinical grounds
Large-scale settlement of non-immune highland people in the lowlands  and deterioration of the health services  during the last phase of the civil war were particularly  instrumental in increased morbidity  and mortality  from malana. The lowlands  of the project area below isqq m ahit^ are highly  malarious, and the blood of more than 75 per cent of children less  than I year old shows  signs  of infection (Selkhozpromexport, 1988) It is  reported that Anophelcs  pambiae i$ responsible for the high sporozoite rate in the Gambela area (Krafsur, 1971)
Of   the   four   plasmodium   species   known   to   cause   human   malaria,   the   two   cpidemiologically important   species   are   Plasmodium   falciparum,   60   %,   and   Plasmodium   vivax,   40   %   of   ail malaria  cases  Plasmodium  falciparum  causes  the  most  frequent  and  fatal  episodes  of  malana in  Ethiopia  It  is  the  cause  of  severe  and  complicated  malaria  in  which  the  case  fatality  rate  is about  10  %  in  hospitalised  adults  and  up  to  33  per  cent  tn  children  less  than  12  years  old Selkhozpromexport,   1988,   cites   morbidity   rales   of   40   per   cent,   but   believes   they   should   be higher    due    to    the    mortality    of    undiagnosed    children    Plasmodium    vivas    is    also    widely distributed   and   often   precedes   the   transmission   of   P.   falciparum.   Plasmodium   vivax   is   more common  in  the  dry  season,  and  whether  this  is  due  to  active  transmission  or  relapses  has  not been  clearly  determined  This  species  is  not  a  major  cause  of  mortality  but  is  an  important cause of morbidity due to the phenomenon of relapse
In Gambela it has  been observed that residents  speaking the Nilotic  languages  are more resistant to P.vnax infections  than are the more recent arrivals  to these lowlands, who speak Semetic  and Cushitic  languages  (Armstrong 1978), Later studies  established the absence of Duffy' antigen in Nilotic  speakers  (Mathews  1981) Though malaria has  seasonal transmission, agricultural development schemes  are considered to be highly  malarious  This  is  mainly  due to migrant labourers  who often go into these areas  from the less  malarious  and malaria-free regions with little or no exposure-related immunity.
Irrigated   agricultural   development   will   undoubtedly   increase   the   presence   of   surface   water throughout  the  year,  extending  the  duration  of  suitable  habitat  for  anopheles  breeding  (aedes the  carrier  of  yellow  fever,  prefers  areas  close  to  habitations  for  breeding  (Selkhozpromexpo  , 1988)   This   will   create   a   change   in   the   dynamics   of   transmission   from   seasonal   to   perenj1 Physical  environmental  modifications,  such  as  the  drainine  of  stagnant  water  bodies  and  H  ■  - of  hollows  and  burrow  pits,  when  carried  out  regularly,  have  proven  to  be  effective  The detection   and   prompt   treatment   of   cases   remains   the   corners!one   in   reducing   morbi mortality due to malaria
TAMS-ULG Baw-Aknlw Rjver Easin Integrated Development Master
JD-5SO CIO-ECONOM1C________________________  ANNEX 3D SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE
£thiop'a makes  use of DDT in its  anii-mahnal campaigns  in some pans  of the country  (The Monitor, 1996. Addis  Tribune, 1996), but this  is  a banned pesticide Other pesticides 
(hexachloron, dieldrin, etc) also have adverse impacts  (Selkhozprcnnexport. 1988) Chemoprophylaxis  is  not suitable other than for protection of temporary, non-immune visitors. Irnmortity  development is  a possible response, but high mortality' is  likely  of non-immune immigrants. Insect treated mosquito nets  have proven effective in reducing the incidence of malaria in West Africa and Asia. Eventually  a vaccine may  provide effective protection againcr malaria
2.2       Sanitation
The concept of "Health for all by  the Year 2000" and the Declaration of Primary  Health Care (PHC) by  WHO in 1978 emphasises  the need for and urgency  of providing safe and adequate water supply  and basic  sanitation. According to the 1984 census, rivers  and iakes  were still the major sources  of domestic  water supply  in urban areas  in Wellega, and wells  and springs (about half of them unprotected) in fllubabor and Keffa Earlier studies  have indicated that only  a small proportion of the inhabitants  of the project area have access  to dependable supplies  of safe and potable water The majority- of the population use unprotected sources  of water, including rivers, streams, springs and water holes.
The sanitation situation in Ethiopia, both ir. urban and rural areas, is  among the worst in the world From a survey  done by  the Ethiopian Valleys  Development Studies  Authority  fEVDSA
1990)  on  sanitation  in  the  project  area,  oniy  half  of  the  urban  and  less  than  1%  of  the  rural population  were  estimated  to  be  served  with  safe  means  of  excreta  disposal  According  to  one report,   no   sanitation   facilities   are   present   in  the  entire  Gambela  region  except  io   schools, clinics   and   some   residences   (UNDP   1993)   The   Letter   of   Sector   Policy   of   the   Ministry   of Water  Resources  (1996)  states  that  only  7  per  cent  of  Ethiopians  have  access  to  sanitation. which it defines as a latrine.
Among the most common diseases  in (he project area are those that are caused by  pathogens transmitted in human excreta The transmission of these diseases  is  mainly  due to poor hygienic  conditions  and lack  of safe drinking water Intestinal protozoa like Entamoeba histolytica and Gionfta lanthiia and intestinal helminths  like Ascons  /umAricowfei; rrichuns frichuria, Ancyiostoma duodenate, Sfrnngfoydes  tfercoralrs are the leading causes  for out patient visits  in the project area. Improved sanitary  conditions  and the provision of adequate potable water will definitely  improve the occurrence of diseases  caused by  these intestinal parasites.
Skin infections  and diseases  of the eyes  are reported among the ten leading causes  of outpatient visits (Table 2), Some diseases of the eyes and the skin are frequently dependent on availability  of water and sanitary  conditions  In one study  in Ethiopia, ar. inverse relationship between trachoma prevalence, living space, availability  oi latrines, and per capita water consumption has  been shown (Tesfaye et ai 1988) Among schoolchildren in Wellega, scabies has  been found io be highly  prevalent (Hojer et al 1973) Other water associated diseases  are shown in Tables
TAMS-LTLG Biro-Akobo River Basin lnir£ratecl Development MasterplanSOCIO-ECONOMIC                   ANNEX 3D SOCIAL INFRASTRuCTl^ Table 3 Diseases associated with water1
Class
Vector
Name
Bacterial
Salmonella (typhoid) Enterobacteria (E Coll, Campylobacter), Cholera
_  °jwtarfa
Pr
NotrePon^
WATER-BORNE
Water acts as a passive vehicle for the infective agent
Leptospirosis
Viral
Hepatitis   A,   Poliomyelitis, rotavirus, Enteroviruses
—   —.__
Parasitic
Amoebiasis, Giardiasis, Balantidium coli
Prevalent ~
Enteric
e g a proportion of diarrhoea and gastro
enteric
PrevaienT
WATER-WASHED Infections  that  decrease as  a  result  of  increasing the  volume  of  available water
Skin
Scabies. Ringworm,
Ulcers, pyodermitis
Prevalent
Louse-Borne
Typhus and related fevers
Not reported
Treponematoses
Yaws, bejel, Pinta
Not reported
Eye .And Ear
Otitis, conjunctivitis.
Trachoma
Prevalent
WATER-BASED Necessary part of the life cycle    of    the    infective agent  takes  place  in  an aquatic organism
Crustaceans
Guinea worm.
Paragonimiasis
Not reported
Fish
Diphyllobothriasis,
Anisakiasis, Flukes
Not reported
Shellfish
Flukes, Schistosomiasis
Prevalent
WATER-RELATED Infections spread by insects that bread in
i water or bite near it
Mosquitoes
Malaria.   Filanasis.   Yellow fever. Dengue. Haemonhagic fever
Highly 
prevalent
Tsetse Flies
Trypanosomiasis    (sleeping sickness)
Highly prevalefN_^
Blackflies
Onchocerciasis
Highly 
prevalent
. Source. Prost, A .993 The Management of Water Rpvnnrrrv Owinnmenr and Humin Health ffl Tropics. In: Hydrology and wiier Manager™ in the Humid Tropics Botmel Hufshnudi and Giau
the H'J^
Table 3 p 442. Cambridge Univenaty Press,
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo Riser Basin Integrated Development Matter Plan
3D-7
—— ---------SOCIOECONOMIC
ANNEX 3D SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE
HEALTH SERVICES
j j
General
The
si
x-tiered
national
health
care
syst
em
con
sists 
(front
bottom)
of
comm
unity 
health
services 
(hea
lth
posts),
health
stations 
(clin
ics),
dist
rict
hospi
tals,
regional
hos
pitals,
and
central
referral
hospitals  The existing community  health service or health post at the base is  staffed by  one community  health agent (CHA) and one (rained traditional birth attendant (TBA) to render basic  health services  These services  include promotion of community  participation, control of communicable diseases, provision of Maternal and Child Health (MCH) services  and provision of curative services  for minor illnesses  Each health post is  expected to serve a minimum of 1,000 population Health stations, the lowest level health services  operated directly  by  the Ministry  of Health, arc  widely  distributed in rural areas  mostly  in villages  and small towns. In the project area the number of health stations  are 143 in Region 4, 32 in Region 6, 8 in Region
11  and  25  in  Region  12  As  data  for  Region  11  could  not  be  obtained,  the  current  number  of health  centres  and  health  stations  may  be  slightly  more  (indicated  in  .Annex  C  as  no  mailable data,  NAD  ,  ui  the  existing  health  stations  column)  Each  health  station  is  staffed  by  one  or two  health  assistants  (the  larger  ones  by  a  nurse)  and  is  anticipated  to  serve  at  least  10.000 population   within   a   10-12   km   radius   Health   stations   provide   regular   outpatient   services   and basic   MCH   care,   and   develop   and   implement   environmental   sanitation   and   water   supply programs
Health Centres are staffed by a physician, nurses, sanitarians, laboratory' technicians and health assistants In the project area the number of health centres are 7 in Region 4, 3 in Region 6, 3
in Region 11 and 4 in Region 12. Health Centres are the major health facilities of weredas and
provide more specialised outpatient services as well as supervise and support health stations 
Each health centre is expected to provide services for ar least 100,000 population Hospitals 
are the most specialised and best staffed, and are expected to serve as referral centres for their catchment areas In the project area the number of hospitals are 4 in Region 4, I in Region 6,
1 in Region 11 and 1 in Region 12 with a total 660 beds
Maternal and Child Health (MCH) service is  more and more gaining popularity. This  can be illustrated by  the fact that services  given to pregnant women and children in Gambela has shown a sharp increase of 132% over the service planned for 1995 MCH and family  planning (MCH/FP) are integrated services  given at ah levels  of the health service system Td the mothers, the objective is  to provide antenatal care, delivery’ service for pregnant women, and tanuly  planning service for women 15-49 age group in general; to the child, the objective is  to provide curative and preventive health service Immunisation of children through the Expanded Program of Immunisation (EPI) for the six  immuni2able childhood diseases  TB. poliomyelitis, diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus  and measles  is  an important part of MCH program The status of immunisation for the project area is shown in Tables (4) and (5).
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Birin Integrated Develop men I Masterplan
3D-8SOCIO-ECONOMIC
ANNEX 3D SOCIAL TNFRASTRUCn Rp
Table 4             Immunisation rates in 1992. in rural areas (%)
Criterion
<1 year (BCG) <1 year (measles) <1 year (DPT-3) <1 year (Polio-3)
Asosa Gambda             lllubabor         Keffa        Wellega
•
-
-
-
-
-
35.3                  14 0          16.6                9 1
-
-
-
<1 year (fully immunised) 29 7
Women 15-49 (TT2) 24 5
8.5 10.7 69
9.9 11.0 5.5
12.0
13.0
7.0
Source:      (regional regional health profiles and 5 year Health Plans. Ministry' of Health.           1992_
(national National Population Policy of Ethiopia op cit.
The 1996 Mimstiy  of Health program has  improved the health infrastructure The overall objective of the new health service is  to provide an acceptable standard of comprehensive and integrated health care through equitably  distributed health institutions  at the grass-roots  level Thus  the existing six-tier health care delivery  system is  reduced to four tier At the base of the pviamid are health centres with five satellite community health services or health posts.
Table 5 Immunisation rates in 1995 (% of population)
! Immunised (per cent)
Project areas
National
BCG
Measles
1 DPT 3
Polio 3
TT 2P
52.6 590
32.6                             35.0
40.0                            41.0
40.2                            40.0
29.1                             19.0
health stations and health posu'b'vtlw S.T |!h ™ health post to 5.000 popXo aZX P°SI ™S Cl“"8e ,hc system is designed to be opera,ional inKW, FjfT, except that coverage will be reduced m
Source unpublished data, from Mother and Child Health Department, Ministry of Health
d       h'al,h POSts' lhereby IePi’ring the existing
<* a health centre The rCmaJn the same functions as now
health centre there will be 5 health nLe ru’k .P°Pulatlon instead of 100,000. Under each
2,372,161 for recurrent and k  / budget for the heaJth centre is  Birr 672,000 and
in Table 1 in Annex 3B The bud °
' r“pec,’ve]>' The total budget breakdown is shown
163,352.78    and    945,928    for    recu^*1      °r     l"E      health    posts    under    each    health    centre    is 
depending on the materials used breakdown in Table 2 in Annex 3B As they were earlier planned to ak t. .
health    centres    in    the    project
res Pectively- These figures may vary
dui “ health posts as shown by the budget
L
area will h .l needs  of 100'00t> population, the existing
policy   of   Lhe   Ministry   of   Health   9'   i   i'   *   ■?   be    lncreased   hy   four-fold   to   satisfy’   the   present
be convened to health posts with L ‘ of health centres, that is to five
heaJtb. stations lhaI are operational will need to
°fi^eir numbers according to the total number e heaJth P°SIS for each health centre
TAMS-ULG BarthAknbo River Basin Integrated Development Master1
3D-9SOCIOECONOMIC
ANNEX 3D SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE
Within a population, different age and socio-economic  groups  have a much greater likelihood 0t experiencing illness  and dying. Infants  and children less  than 5 years  of age, and mothers  of child bearing age (15-49 years) fall into that category, where they  comprise 37 9% of the existing population (estimate from 1984 CSA census) According to a recent survey conducted by  the Ministry  of Health (1995). the Infant Mortality  Rate (0 year) and Child Mortality Rate (1-4 years) for the whole country- are 105/1000 and 52.5/1000 respectively
Table 6 shows  the Infant and Child Mortality  Rates  for the project area Tn addition to the usual childhood diseases  like polio, whooping cough, diphtheria and measles, children suffer more frequently  than adults  from diarrhoea, respiratory  infections, malnutrition, tetanus  and malaria. The health care system should be improved and strengthened to reduce morbidity  and mortality rates of these vulnerable groups of the population
Table 6               Regional mortality indicator by type of residence in 1984
Sex
Ulubab*ar                Keffa
Wellega
National
Rumi      Urban Rural Urban                 Rural       Urban     Rural        Urban ||
Males                            114.0
Infant Mortality Rate (0 year/1000)
101.6       1440         103 4         99.2           86 j        118.2        102.8 |
Females                           983         88 5       126 9         88.9          87.3          68.1        104.3          84 9 I
Males
Females
Child Mortality Rate (1-4 years)
52.8          44.6         74.5          45.8          43.1          35.1          55.7          45.5 53.9         46.3         78.6          46.4          45,5          31 3          58.7          43.6
Source CSA 1990
The Maternal and Child Health (MCH) program integrated in the health infrastructure is  meant to take care of these vulnerable population groups  by  implementing both curative and preventive health services  The MCH program provides  a generally  low coverage for the country  (Table 7) and, as  it Is  an important pan of the health service, needs  to receive more attention The National Expanded Program of Immunisation (EPI), a component of the MCH program, has  an even lesser coverage rate (Table 3 .Annex  3B) Improvement of these low rates, particulartv  the EPI. could be achieved by  promoting social mobilisation through health education and bv  encouraging mothers  and care takers  of infants  in the project area As  the MCH program is  fully  supported by  UNICEF through the provision of basic  requirements  and is  integrated within the infrastructure of health institutions, the additional cost required to make it optimally operational will be minimal.
According to the MOFTs  1996 report on Cost-effectiveness  and Program Evaluation of Major Health Interventions, the total cost for complete immunisation per child is  Birr 58.50. This includes  cost of labour Birr 1,92, vaccine Birr 6 66, overhead Birr 49.92. Depending on the geographic  location and the population density  the number of accessible outreach posts  for immunisation may  need to be increased Supplementing the overhead expense mentioned above may improve the immunisation coverage rate in the project area
TAMS-L’LG Biro-Ak&bo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
3D -10SOCIO-ECONOMIC
3.2  Medical and Health Facilities
ANNEX 3D SOCIAL INTRastRuch d
The provision of health sendees currently is obviously inadequate Dau extracted fr national census results indicate the following'
Table 7 Facilities in Major Towns in the Project Area (1994/9?)
oni
Hospital beds
Clinics
Health Centres
Total National
9.675
2,470
187
Gambela
95_
254 
32
3
Bens hangul-Gumuz lllubabor*
72
346
344
J36
172
4_
JO
Wollega
8
Total Regional
1,039
412
25
•   Note:   Figures   for   Wollega   and   lllubabor   are   taken   from   the   CSA   Statistical   Abstract   of 1990/91   Latest   figures   according   to   the   new   division   of   administrative   regions   are   not available.
Further  analy  sis  of  the  above  data  shows  the  difference  between  national  average  and  that  of the Bare- Akobo region
Table 8 Differences in Facilities between National Average and the Project Area
1 Hospital Bed
Persons per Clinic
Health Centre
National Average
5,685
22,267
294,118
The Region’s Average
Gambela
4,857
1,972
12450
5,855
201,874
62.450
i Benshangul-Gumuz
1,867
6.587
118,568
lllubabor
2.448
6,228
84.705
Wollega
10.334
120,668
449,371 
Table 9 Mortality Rates (Less than 5 years of age)
Per 1.000 live births
| National
117*
| The Region’s Average
177
Gambela
137
Benshan^ul Gumuz
209
lllubabor
------- -— — —-------------------
176
;l West Wollega
175
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Bajm Integrated Dcvelopmcnr Master Plm
3D- HSOCIO-ECONOMIC
ANNEX 3D SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE
Table 10 Distribution of Health Personnel
I
Note Due to lack of data for Oromiya Region. Wollega and Ulubabor data has been taker, from 1991/92 Statistical Abstract of the CSA.
3.3         Comparative Position of the Region
Most of the above comparative statistics show the Baro-Akobo River Basin is not significantly worse of than most other regions  Indeed the averages show better statistics except for mortality' rates The understanding one can derive from the above indicators could be
-  The provision of health services is generally nationally very low and only very few urban centres are slightly in a better position than the rest of the countrv, and
-  The mortality rare is higher m the Baro-Akobo area more due to lack of clean
water, poor hvgiene and relatively lower standard of life than the average national condition
Therefore, by wav of provision of health services, the region deserves similar attention as most under provided regions  in the country  More concentration on provisions  of clean water, better living conditions and general growth in standard of life and increased awareness of hygiene could help alleviate the high mortality rate
3.4         Distances Travelled to Reach a Health Centre
Excluding Addis Ababa and Regional capitals, there are only 46 hospitals and about 7,000 clinics in the country This means more than 1 million persons per hospital and about 6.700 persons per clinic
Considering the country’s large area, about 50 persons per square kilometre in the rural areas, it is possible that patients would travel more than 120 kilometres to reach a hospital and about 30 kilometres to reach a clinic
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
3D -12SOCIO-ECONOMIC
ANNEX 3D SOCIAL
INFRASTRUCTURE
4. NUTRITIONAL STATUS
■^read problem in the country In the rural areas in 1               is a common and wtdesp H ■ wasted" i e below 90% height for age
Ethiopia among children aged
and above 80% weight for height wtuc 
6“
Jws^cute malnutrition (Waterloo 1973), 64%
for
„ -Zmel’ I. malnumtiou
1 992) According the national figures
-underweish." U. to* <°- <f (CU
CSA (1992). the nutritional status of children in the age area is shown in Table 7. It is more or less comparable to
Table 11. Nutritional Status among children age 6*59 months in 1992 (%)
Type of Malnutrition
Illubabor            KefTa               Wellega
National
1 Wasting (acute) Stunting (chronic)
1 Underweight
Source: CSA 1992
9.1
67 1
52 5
7.3
108
609                    59 2
649
382                    51 6                   477
Specific nutritional deficiencies like anaemia, which is prevalent in the area either as direct iron deficiency  or as  indirect parasitic  or other diseases, is  reported in Illubabor and Gambella Such specific deficiencies need to be attended by direct intervention on the root cause and by presiding supplement Improving the general nutritional status  of the population by  presiding supplementation will not be feasible, strengthening nutrition within the MCH program of the health institutions is a more appropriate approach
Baro-Akobo River BisiL Imitated Development MasterPlan
3D-13SOCIO-ECONOMIC
ANNEX 30 SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE
5  IMPACT OF STORAGE SITES AND IRRIGATION ON HEALTH
The Baro-Akobo Master Plan project has  as  its  objective the general development of
75,912  km .
2
Its  development  program  will  have  an  impact  on  the  lift  style  of  the  population  by 
improving  its  socio-economic  status.  It  is  expected  the  project  will  construct  five  dams,  which
w j[   create   water   bodies   that   will   produce   hydroelectric   power   and   irrigation   In   the   area   the
□opulation   is   composed   of   diverse   ethnic   groups   (Table   1),   with   a   continuous   in   and   out movements   of   migrants.   About   600,000   people   are   known   to   have   settled   in   1985,   which corresponds   to   a   population   increase   of   35%   tn   that   particular   year   alone   Most   of   these settlers  from  the  northern  part  of  the  country'  have  since  moved  out.  but  due  to  the  political situation in the Sudan the movement of refugees is constant, particularly in the Gambela area
With the possibility  of job opportunities  during the construction period and the development of irrigation later on, an attraction will be created for settlers  from outside the area This  new influx  will change the existing population structure both in number and age structure The existing health infrastructure system will have to accommodate the health needs  of a new population that will eventually  increase in number Thus, a well-defined knowledge of endemic diseases  by  location and prevalence density  has  to be mapped out to take preventive as  well as curative measures. A possibility  of screening out new diseases  brought into the community  will help reduce the cost of treatment and the spread of the disease among the indigenous population. The cost estimate of such practice will need an in-depth study, which requires looking at the cost benefit of the screening process
Regarding the existing health infrastructure of the Project area, if the 1996 Ministry of Health
policy of four-tier health care delivery is to be implemented, immediate attention should be
given to accommodate it The new health infrastructure will have a health centre at the base of
the pyramid with five health posts As each new health centre is expected to serve a population
of 25000, there is an immediate need to increase the number of health centres corresponding
to the population of each wereda Accordingly, the present number of health centres with their
satellite health posts needs to be increased to a total of 66 health centres and 404 health posts, depending on the population size (details can be seen in Annex 3C) Similarly, the existing
health stations will have to be converted to health posts and their numbers adjusted io the
number nf health centres in the different areas hrorr. experience in the past, the establishment
of health posts was not the responsibility of the Ministry of Health but was undertaken by the
respective communities This undertaking was in most cases supported by NGOs with
consents from regional offices of the Ministry of Health. Ln a similar manner the Baro-Akobo
iRiver Basin Project may have to take the responsibility of establishing the future health posts 
As defined by the policy, it will be the responsibility of health centres to supervise the acidities 
the health posts The detailed budget for a health centre and five health posts according to
die Ministry of Health cost estimate is shown in Tables 1 and 2 in Annex 3B The Ministry of
Health manpower requirement and salary scale is shown in Annex 3D
present  there  is  no  immediate  need  to  increase  the  number  of  hospitals.  Improvement  of  the ^’agnostic  facilities  and  increasing  the  number  of  beds  of  the  existing  hospitals  may  satisfy  the R eed  Taking  an  inventory  of  the  hospitals  in  each  wereda  will  indicate  the  exact  requirements ds to how- to make the improvements.
TAM5-ULG Baro-Akobo River Bijin [titcRraied Development Marter PlanSOCIO-ECONOMIC
ANNEX 3D SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTUKe
With the current restructuring of administrative regions, shifting of wcredas from On
administrative region to a neighbouring wereda in a different administrative region has 
occurred In some cases there has been a split of wcredas belonging to two administrative
zones .An example of this is Biegi. Gidanu and Anfilo in Region 6 and Region 4. Thjs ^as
created a problem for the present report in accounting the exact locations of health servic 
institutions (a total of 4 health centres and 24 health stations)
However, health service facilities  that will be required for the entire development project will depend on the geographic  location of population settlement and the development of road transportation of the area It is  not only  the existence of the health institutions  that is  important but also their accessibility  to the population that will ensure the proper utilisation of the health facilities. If road transportation is  not available, the existence of a health institution may  not achieve its  goal to alleviate the health problems  of the area This, in particular, applies  to the health posts, the lowest level of the health service It may  be of importance to anticipate a unequal distribution of health posts'5000 population (according to the 1996 MOII policy') in the different dams and irrigation sites, as the number of settlers may vary
Inclusion of specialised services  such as  laboratory  diagnostic  facilities  in some of the health centres  may  be necessary  to accommodate the need to diagnose prevalent endemic  parasitic diseases  This  will not only  help the process  of treatment, but also help in case-finding campaigns  that will eventually  reduce the prevalence of endemic  diseases  Eventually  it will result in the reduction of the disease burden in the communities, which will enhance the planned process  of development in the project area Overlooking the integration of such curative and preventive aspects  may  lead not only  to high morbidity  and mortality, but will be also a drawback for development
Previous  experience on resettlement and refugee health problem has  shown that settlers  from different geographical and ecological zones  face serious  problems  with malaria by  exhibiting high susceptibility  (Armstrong 1978). On the other hand, the effects  on transmission of diseases  during the 1984-85 resettlement program, which resulted in the migration of many peasants  from the highly  schistosomia endemic  areas  of northern Ethiopia to areas  of low endemicity  in western Ethiopia, have not been fully  assessed (Kloos  1993) One of the diseases that will probably  increase with irrigation schemes  would be Schistosomiasis  For this  reason careful planning and implementing of public  health measures  of prevention and monitoring would be important.
The  evolution  of  the  population  projection  in  the  year  2035  shows  an  increase  which  is  double the   1995   population   (Table   12.).   This   will   require   a   progressive   increase   of   the   number   of health  services  in  the  different  weredas  Targets  for  future  increase  could  be  set  using  the  rate of   population   growth   as   predicted   from   present   knowledge   about   the   area,   but   it   will   be worthwhile   to   observe   the   pattern   of   population   movement   during   the   development   process^ Settlements   would   tend   to   cluster   around   the   irrigation   sites,   and   that   would   require   special attention  regarding  the  type  of  health  service  delivery  to  be  rendered  Unless  there  is  a  change in  health  infrastructure  policy,  the  cost  of  increasing  the  numbers  of  health  centres  and  heal posts  will  be  based  on  the  number  of  population  in  the  different  areas  of  the  Project  in  t planning   process,   unexpected   natural   disasters   and   epidemics   that   may   increase   the   heal services   cost   will   need   to   be   accommodated   Such   situations   mav   require   mobilisat’O" skilled manpower for a limited period of time. The overall needs assessment regarding^L--
TAMS-ULG Biro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
3D. ISSOCIOECONOMIC
AXN'EX 3D SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE
will depend on acquiring adequate data on population movements, demographic indicators and monitoring it to the best use in the Project area.
Table 12 Evolution of project area population. 1995-*-2035
Year
Population (’000)
Rural
Urban
Total
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2029
2236
24 79
2752 3061 3393 3737 4107 4501
182 5 225 0 270.5
324 0
389.0
469 0
564.0
668 0
7780
-
2211,5 2461 0 2749 5 3077.0 3450.3 | 3962.0 1 4301.4 4775 9 '1 5279 6 1
-__ d
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Interned Development Master PlanSOCIO-ECONOMIC
ANNEX 3D SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE
6. HOUSING
6.1 General
Housing conditions for the project area are considering using six urban centres selected from the different regions in the project area These urban centres are Asosa, Dembidolo, Mugj Metu, Gore, and Gambela
The criteria of comparison selected are:
•     Clean drinking water
•     Toilet facility
•     Bathing facility
•     Electric lighting
•     Kitchen facility
•     Rooms per housing unit (average)
6.2 Current Conditions
Housing units having the above facilities are considered to be indicative of improved living conditions In general the standard of provision of decent housing can be the above criteria The percentage of housing units haring the above facilities is given below:
Table 13
Nation"      Asosa       Dembidolo      Mugi        Metu       Gore    Gambela
Clean water
67.9           326                32 5           1.8        82.5        1.8              669
Toilet facility
49.7          86.7                 78.5         792         70.2       590
300
Bathing facility
7.2            3.5                   4.0          2 7           5 5
1 Electric lighting
3.1          74.9                77.1           0.5         71 5
4.1
78 3
Kitchen facility                      63 8             94                   2.2
3 5           8.9
18
Rooms/housing unit               2.5            1.9                  2.5           2.1 |        2.3        2 3
112,
39 2
25
1_4]
As can be seen from the data Riven above th*.
,
centres    and    the    national    taken    from    the    1984    LnP^S°n     between     ,he     re®
on s 
’     selected     urban
clear dnnking water and bathing facies It sh L housing is a national problem where^h1
°* differenceS eXC5P'
* n°tCd thaI ,he provision °f dCCen‘
shortages 
.Measures     should     be     taken     to     /TT     lncludin«     the       maJor       Iowns       have       senouS upgrade the level of housing facilities
'  Note.  The  national  averages  are  taken  from  the  results  of  the  1984  census  as  the  1994 results are not yet available
TAMS-CLG Biro-Akobo River Batin InteRrated Development Masicr Plan
3D -17SOCIO-ECONOMIC___________________  ANNEX 3D SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE
Urban development is  tied up with the general economic  development of the country  Agro- industries. trade and general growth in the standard of living of the urban population^ critical conditions  for such development This  is  mainly  because the facilities  need to be sustainable by  the urban communities  themselves  ones  the government or a housing organisation makes  the basic  infrastructure available Urban dwellers  should be able to generate sufficient income to pay for potable water, electricity, and better housing
To improve housing conditions  to the extent possible, such schemes  as  access  to credit for housing co-operatives  and committed government support are essential The availability  of land should be made easy as fir as planned and sustainable projects are produced
Similar schemes  like those administered in Addis  Ababa by  the Ministry  of Urban Development and Housing and the Urban Development Unit for Addis  .Ababa in the past could be expended for the major urban centres in the Baro-Akobo River basin regions
Appropriate types  and sizes  of housing units  would cost between Birr 800-1,000 per m? with some self-help input Middle and high income households  could own modest houses  through such through schemes  using long term financing plans  The implementation of such schemes could bring together the zonal or regional urban planning bureaux, the local administrators  and the Construction and Business  Bank  (former Housing and Savings) More could be drawn from the experiences  of those who have implemented formidable sizes  of housing projects  in Addis  Ababa using similar schemes  It should however be noted such projects  should follow the emergence of an income generating and dynamic middle class in each of the urban centres The implementation of the different projects  that could come as  a spin-off from the larger phases of Baro-Akobo River Basin development could create a convenient situation
TAMS-L'LG Baro-Akobo River Bain Integrated Development Master PlanS\S XMW'OMh
V\M\ .M'MX IM INFRASim ( T|;Rl
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Chari Scatstic- Kffiisrm                        Census
Gem feimt' Atv-D '.CkC2 Xxoorut Rirra. Xutntion Survey
DeX'ic  < Waster.. K On^Kwcraajas  m Gcnti Gcrfr an anthropological and ecological
x~t- rSrarMst J 
“‘■■T'S- joa; WsersuoDh dcsarrtdor.
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Hsteur Kioo> etu. Zen Ahmed Zcr. Bed—oErer. FBanasis  and Dnjnculiasis  In Helmut Kloos sac  Zee AhmecZsr sas  . Tne Ecolon of Health and Disease in Ethiopia Pp 511- '•;i Bouioe: Gakrsnc v<esttrvier-. 1993
Htmtu; Kitos Schstasomias^ ir Hehnul Helmut Kloos and Zein Ahmed Zein feds ), The Eaoioc o' Hear.: sne Disease in Ethiopia Pp 412-424 Boulder. Colorado
-
Horr   E   zru   XrrdnET   E   Heeitr   strvr-   of   a   rural   eietnetQsry   school   in   Ethiopia   Ethiop   Med - jcr3 ]i 7S-52
Hu^nmson MP riuiaz: rvasiosotnuisif r. South West Ethiopia Ethiop Med J 1971.
Kroos   £.,   Lu   7?   Bent   H   Ayeie.   I.,   Tedia.   S   Tsqiay,   F.   Schistosomiasis   in   Ethiopia SocSeMk 1968 26 SfS-827
LraEsur   r_E   Meanc   ransnussior   n   Cjambelu   Iliubabor   province   Ethiop   Med   J   1971   r     27 4Z-54
..   -report.   E   Aiemu   T   Biorvan;.   E   Pnpiiiirinr.   growth   fertility.   monalirv   and   migration   nt arougs’ m~nnt anesr it Ethiopia Tram E Soo Trop Med Hygl993
—r ' Aoranan Kexu anr
IdaiooiogicaJ studies of human Schistosomin-
iu   r   Btritiuu-   In   ’Cc^eaarjair.   Ay«u   and   Hailu   Bine   (cds   J.   Schistosomiasis   m
Btruopia
Aaan Anaua Instihflr ofPaihobiology , 1982
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Summery

BARO-AKORO RIVER BASIN DEVELOPMENT - SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Overview

This document presents the socio-economic analysis for the Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan in Ethiopia. It focuses on population aspects including demographics, urbanization, fertility, mortality, migration, and their implications for development planning.

Key Findings

1. Population Characteristics

1993 Population: 2.17 million in the project area (75,912 km²)
Density: 28.6 persons/km² (ranging from 7 in Gambela to 54.5 in Oromiya)
Major Ethnic Groups: Oromos (majority), Amharas, and various regional groups
Religions: Mix of Christians and Muslims with regional variations

2. Population Growth

1984-1993 Growth Rate: 2.37% annually
Special Events: Significant population fluctuations due to refugee movements (up to 400,000 Sudanese refugees) and resettlement programs (200,000 people)
Projection to 2035: Population expected to grow to 5.3 million

3. Urbanization

1993 Urban Population: 8.1% of total (175,046 people)
Major Towns: Gambela, Asosa, Mizan Teferi, Metu, Dembi Dolo
Projection to 2035: Urban population expected to reach 778,600 (14.7% of total)

4. Fertility and Mortality

Fertility Rate (1984): 7.3-7.6 children per woman
Mortality: High infant mortality (102-144 deaths per 1000 live births)
AIDS Impact: Growing concern with increasing prevalence rates

5. Migration Patterns

Significant rural-urban migration flows
Historical in-migration of refugees and resettled populations
Projected continued out-migration from rural areas

Development Implications

Population densities will triple by 2035, reaching 70 persons/km²
Gambela region expected to experience the fastest growth (4.84% annually)
Significant pressure on land and resources expected
Need for expanded social services (education, healthcare)
Urban planning challenges with growing towns

Data Limitations

The study notes several data challenges including:

Administrative boundary changes over time
Incomplete migration data
Difficulty quantifying refugee impacts
Need for updated census information (1994 census data not yet available during study)

Recommendations

Need for further studies with updated census data
Improved monitoring of population movements
Specific attention to HIV/AIDS prevention
Comprehensive urban planning for growing towns
Land use planning to accommodate population growth

Note: This document represents Annex 3 (Socio-Economics) of the larger Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan Study conducted for the Ethiopian Ministry of Water Resources.