FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA
MINISTRY OF WATER RESOURCES
<1J
BARO-AKOBO RIVER BASIN
INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT
MASTER PLAN STUDY
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FINAL REPORT
ANNEX 3 PT. 1
4
SOCIO-ECONOMIC,FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPL4 MINISTRY OF WATER RESOURCES
BARO-AKOBO RIVER BASIN INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT
MASTER PLAN STUDY
ANNEX 3
SOCIO-ECONOMICS
Part 1
Annex 3A
Population Aspects
Annex 3B
Socio-Ethnk Groups Analysis
Annex 3C
Economic Infrastructures
Annex 3D
Social Infrastructures
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akotw River Basin integrated Drvelojimeni Master PlanINDEX OF VOLUMES AND ANNEXES
Volume 1:...
Volume Tl:.
Volume III:
Volume IV:
Volume V„.
1. HATER RESOURCES
Executive Summary
resource Base and Development Options Master Plan Development
Project Area Maps Pre feasibility studies
ANNEXES
Annex IA Climatology ' -p
Annex IB..
Annex 1C
Annex ID
Hydrology
Flood Studies -
Ground Water '
Annex IE Reservoir Operation Studies
Annex IF
Annex 1G
Sediment Studies
Water Res°urces Cost Estimating ...
Annex 1H Irrigation Projects *
Annex 11 Water Supply Projects ■ Annex 1J Hydropower Projects f
2. NATURAL RESOURCES
Annex 2A . Land Evaluation
Annex 2B, Soils and Soil Conservation
Annex 2C.......................................... •- Geology
Annex 2D
Mineral Resources —
Annex 2E .......................................... Forestry
.Annex 2F ...
Annex 2G
Annex 2HApiculture Annex 21 Agriculture
.JWildlife Tourism
Annex 2J ..................... Renewable Energy —
Annex 2K ....................................... Fisheries
.Annex 2L........................................... Livestock J. SOCIO-ECONOMICS
Annex 3 A ... Annex 3B
Population Aspects Socio-Ethnic Groups Analysis
.Annex 3C Economic Infrastructures Annex 3D Social Infrastructures
Annex 3E
Annex 3 F Institutional Support
4. ENVIRONMENT
Economic and Financial Analysis
Annex 4
Environment
1AMS-ULC Baro-Akulio Rhcr Basin Imefirited Development Master PlanSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
ANNEX3A
POPULATION ASPECTS
TAMS-ULG Baru-Akobu Rher Bailn Inte^rd Dc^hpincm MaHrTPlTnISOCIO-ECONOMICS
annex 3A population aspects
CONTENTS
]. INTRODUCTION...................................................
I 1 Definition of the Demographic Study
i ,2 Assessment of Available Data
1.3 Methodology...
2. INSTITUTIONAL ASPECTS OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC STUD^
2.1 The data
2.2 Population Policy 
....... ...............
2.2.1 Policy description.............................................................................
2.2.2 Organisation for the implementation of the policy.......................... 2.2.3 Organisations involved in the implementation of the policy
3. ANALYSIS
3.1 Population Characteristics 
■> • • * ■ ■■■*«■« Illi ***■ ■ •
...........................................................................................
3. 1. I Preliminary comments..................... ............. ............ .................................. ...........................
3.1.2 Population Sice........................ .......................................... -........ ........... ....................-...... —- o
3.13 Past evolution: 1984-1993...................... ........................ ............... ................................... . 10
3.1.4 Geographical Differences in Growth Rates...................................................................... 14
3.1.5 Population structure............... ............ . ...................... . ...................... . ............................ . 15
3.1.6 Ethnic groups........................ ........... . ................................. ................ . ....................... . I7
3.1.7 Religion.. .............. .............. ............ ...................................... ........................................... 18
3 2 Urbanisation........................ .. .............................................................. . .................. ................. 18
3.2.1 Definitions............................
3.2.2 Past Situation fin 1984).............
19
3.2.3
3.2.4
Present situation .... .................. ...................................................................................... 19
Future Evolution. .......................................... ..................... .. ....................... ................. . 20
3.3 Fertility ................ ........................ ........
3.3.1 Past Situation (in 1984).............. 3.3.2 Present Situation (in 1990)..,. 3.3.3 Recent evolution (1984-90) ... 3.3.4 Future evolution ................... 3.4.1 Past Situation (in 1984).............. 3.4.2 Present Situation (In 1994)...
3. 4. 3 Health situation.............................
3.4.4 AIDS............................................ 3.4.5 Future evolution................. . ......
3 5 Migration ............. ............ .
3.5.1 Past Migration Patterns
3.5.2 Future migration pattern
..........23
............. 23
............ 24
............. 25
............. 26
............. 27
............ 28
............. 30
........... 32
.............. 36
38
35
40
4. CONCLUSIONSAND IMPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT.................................................... 42
4 1 Population Size........................................ .................... .. .................. <2
4.1.1 Globally.............................................................................. 42
4.1.2 Densities in 2035...,... ....................................................... ............................................ ' TAMS- U LG Burv-Akubo River Butin [nlegriied Devchipmenl Muster PI in
3A -iiSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
4.1.3 Regional Evolution...................................................................................................... -h
4.2 Rural/ Urban Population ......................................................................................... ■ 44
4 3 Age mo sex Structure............ ...................................................................................... .......... 45
-/JJ Numbers............................................................ ..... ............................ ..............................45
43.2 Percent Distribution „...... ........................... *.................. *.......... *............................... ...
4 4 Population of School Age— ..... -................................................... ........ ........... 49
5. NEED FOR FURTHER STUDIES —................... -............ —.......... -.................................... ......51
APPENDIX 1 - STATISTICAL TABLES
53
TABLES
Table 1 1995 Population Numbers by 'Present Region" within The Project Area....................... 8
Table 3 Resettled people within the Project Area by ethnic group and ' 1984' region in 1988... 13
Table 4 National age and sex distribution by type of residence, in 1990................................... 16
Table 5 % Share Of Major Ethnic Groups In Each ”1984 Region”, In 1984 ............................. 17
Table 6 % Share Of Major Religions In Each *1984 Region”. In 1984 .............. ...................... 18
Table 7 Evolution Of The Urban Population In The Project Area....... ..................................... 20
Table 8 .Assumptions about Future Evolution of the Population of Major Towns....................... 21
Tabic 9 TAMS-ULG Assumptions about Growth Rales of the Urban Population ........................22
Table 10 Regional Fertility Patterns within the Project Area, By' Type of Resident In 1984........ 23
Tabic 11 National Fertility Patterns, By Type of Residence, In 1984 and 1990.,....................... 24
Table 12 CSA Assumptions about Total Fertility Rate (Children Per Woman Aged 15-49).........26
Table 13 TaMS-ULG Assumptions About Total Fertility Rate For The Project Area ..... ............ ..2?
Table 14 Regional Mortality Indicators By Type Of Resident In 1984 .. .................................. 28
Table 15 Neo-Natal, Infant and Child Mortality Rales, In Rural Areas (%o). .............................. 28
Table 16 1984-1990 Evolution of National Mortality Indicators By Type Of Residence...............29
Table 17 General Health Coverage rates in 1992, In Rural Areas (%)................................... 30
Table 18 Immunisation Rates In 1992, Ln Rural Areas (%)................................................... 30
Tabic 19 Immunisation Rales In 1995 (% of Concerned Population)...... ,.............„................. .31
Table 20 Nutrition among 6-59 Months Children in 1992, in Rural .Areas (%)...«................... 31
Table 21 AIDS Cases by Year of Report .............................................................................. 32
Table 22 Reported AIDS Cases By .Age Group... . ...... *......................................................... 33
TableZS Reported AIDS Cases m Regions Of The Project Area. ........................................ .33
Tabic 24 Reported AIDS Cases By Occupation....... ............. ............. ............. ............. ............. _........... ............. 34
Table 25 1984-2004 Evolution of HIV Prevalence (%of Aduh Population).............................. 35
Table 26 CSA Assumptions About Expectation Of Life Ai Birth (Years).......... ..................... 36
Table 27 T AMS-ULG assumptions about expectation of life at birth for the Project Area (y ears) . 37
Table 28 Migration Rates. By Type Of Migrant And Type Of Migration, In 1981 -82 (%©) ... 39
Table 29 .Age Structure Of Migrants By Type Of Migration And Region, Ln 1984 ...... . ..........39
Tabic 30 Tams-ULg .Assumptions About Yearly Migration Flows Within The Project Area . ... 41
Table31 Growth of Population ard densities. 1985 - 2035... ........................................... 42
Table 32 Population Numbers By *1993 Region* In 2035 ................................................... .. 44
Table 33 1985 - 2035 Evolution Of Urban Population In The Project Area........................... .45
Tabic 34 a 1985 ■ 2035 Evolution Of Project Area's Number Of School Age Population, ,49
— J --C -
By Type Of Resident ..... .......................... ............ .................... . ... .......... ............ 49
.................................................................................. .. +=. i ...
______ -1“
Table 34 b 1985 - 2035 Esolution Of Project Areas Number Of School Age Population Bv Tvdc
Of Resident
................ . ........ .................. . .......... .......... “ \n
TAMS-ULG Bxro-Akabo River Batin Intqyiird Development Muter PlanSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A population aspects
LIST OF ACRONYMS
ASFR ... Age Specific Fertility Rates
CDR ... Crude Death Rate
CSA Central Statistical Authority
[EC Information, Education and Communication MCH Mother and Child Health
NTFS National Family and Fertility Survey
NPC National Population Council
NUPINational Urban Planning Institute RPCRegional Population Council
R.PO ................... Regi o nal Po pu 1 ati on O ffice TFR Total Fertility Rate
ZPC Zonal Population Council ZPOZonal Population Office
TAM5-ULG Bnro-Akoho River Buin InicRrntcd Development MatfcrPlan
3A - ivSOCIO-ECONOMICS
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 Definition of the Demographic Study
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
9
The study consists in the evaluation of the present situation, in order to be able to propose reasonable assumptions for the future taking into account the past evolution. A triple approach is needed :
• of the present situation, in order to answer the question "how many are they now, and where9" From these data, population densities can be derived provided areas of the various weredas are available These densities are needed for other analyses, such as Population Support Capacity analysis
* of thc/wsr evolution. in order to answer the question "how did the population evolve towards the present situation " This study includes both
0 a comparison of past (1984) and present population figures by wereda, which makes possible the mapping of the geographical differences in growth rates But to identify the origin of the population growth, i e to which extent it is because of natural increase (births and deaths) or migration, is not possible with these data, which must be considered as basic data, but too crude
0 an analysis of fertility, mortality and migration patterns (by age and sex), which gives informal ion about the components of population growth of the fit fit re evolution. "how many will they be, and where9’ From these data, population densities will be derived Knowing these densities allows analyses, such as Populaiion Support Capacity analysis, and demand forecasts for water, electric power, etc.
I-2 Assessment of Available Data
Population numbers in 1994 The 1994 census data was released after this study was undertaken It is clear that this data supersedes the projections made from the 1984 census used in this report, and it would be desirable io update the figures on the basis of the census data
' opulotion growth components, in relation with fertility, mortality, and migration: recent data are very scanty, and no data tn relation with ethnicity seem to exist:
a fertility pattern for rural areas of the whole country (Ethiopia), in 1990, is available from the National Family and Fertility Survey (NFFS) No information seems to be available at a larger geographical stale ,
~ mortality information about child ana infant mortality for rural areas in 1990 (NFFS source) No information seems to be available about adult mortality, and on a lower geographical level;
- migration; nothing ar all js available, although it would probably be possible to derive the information from the 1994 census data
LI G ttarn-Akobo River Bitin Integrated Doetoptnecil Martcr Plan
3A- 1SOCIO-ECONOMICS
1.3 Methodology
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
To know the recent evolution is of utmost importance, when so many events have affected, directly or indirectly, the population of the Project Area among others resettlement, refugees, war, famine, etc,
Without the new data this study was compelled to carry out the projection using the data of the 1984 census, and to make assumptions about the 1984-95 evolution, using whatever information that already exists in the office of the Central Statistical Authority (the CSA).
For projection purposes, the « components method » has been used, consisting in applying natality, mortality and migration patterns to the age/sex distribution Details are provided in the related sections hereafter
TAMS-U LG Baro-Akubo River Busin liiicgr.net] Devetopmcut Master PlanSOCIO-ECONOMICS
■> INSTITUTIONAL ASPECTS OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC STL D>
2.1 The data
In each paragraph of this report pertaining to specific aspects of population structure and dynamics, the source of available data is presented, and the quality of the data is assessed Below are presented the major sources of data
The Central Statistical Authority (CSA) is of course the major source of information In
fact. CSA is in charge of producing basic quantitative information relating to any economic and social aspect of life in Ethiopia For example, it has among others the responsibility of
Z population and housing censuses the latest conducted in 1984 and 1994 But also specific censuses, such as the 1988 population and housing census in the resettlement areas.
Z demographic surveys, such as the 1990 National Family and Fertility Survey, or the Demographic and Health Survey to be conducted in 1996.
Z specific social surveys, such as the 1992 National Rural Nutrition Survey;
Z vital registration system statistics.
Z' agricultural surveys.
Z employmem surveys, such as the 1987-88 Rural Labour Force Survey,
llie Ministry of Health whose department of statistics issues health statistics in order to follow up its activities For the purpose of our study, the most useful information relaies to the components of natural increase, i.e fertility and mortality. The major information relates to
l_ actimties of the Ministry, such as the Expanded Programme of Immunisation (issuing yearly immunisation rates by region), other Mother and Child Health (MCH) programmes including Family Planning activities
health situation in the country general morbidity (a large survey was conducted in
.995 all over the country), or specific rixk*< airK an v 
Amx follow up
TAMS-VLG Baro-Akobo RivtTB^Thii
3A-3SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
The National Urban Planning Institute (NLTP is a Vet? important source of information about urban development at! over the country', since it is in charge of either curving out or reviewing or monitoring studies on urban development in the country 1 n ere. ore. one can find the existing (recent or old) Urban Master Plans of many towns in its library, ror example, the 1995 Master Plans of Asosa and Gambela were consulted there.
On a regional level, most of the ministries have local branches, where specific information can be found, not only the same information as on national level, but also specific surveys conducted for local purposes.
2,2 Population Policy
2.2.1 Paiicy description
Ethiopia adopted recently a Population Policy, which can be considered as a global programme defining the role and the place of people in their country. An extensive description of the policy is given in the official document called National Population Policy of Ethiopia, published by the Office of the Prune Minister in April 1993 A brief summary of this policy is presented below, the texts in quotes being extracted from this document
Existing situation
"Demographic factors such as young age structure, uneven spatial distribution of the population fuelled by a continuing high fertility exacerbate the severe state of underdevelopment in Ethiopia:
"low productivity in almost all sectors of the economy resulting in high rates of
unemployment and underemployment and hence in absolute deprivation and apathy.
□ "low accessibility of basic social services such as education, health and housing,
J "the perennial problem of food insecurity affecting many parts of the country,
□ "high prevalence of maternal, infant and child morbidity and mortality - problems that
are partially attributed co the low status of women and high fertility;
— "low life expectancy at t birth*.
In order to deal with this problem and mobilise sufficient energy and resources, among the steps the Government has taken are
□ The adoption of a new economic policy airrnng at introducing structural changes in the economy,
□ the decentralisation of certain aspects of the decision making process to the rerions 
and their zonal subdivisions
Genera/ Mfecriwi
"This policy has for its major goal the harmonisation of the population growth and the capacity of Ethiopia for the development and rational utilisation of Natural resources thereby creating conditions conducive to the improvement of the level of welfare of the population"
TAMS-ULQ B^Akutio River B^in InDevdop^n. Muter Pt™
3A-4annex 3A population aspect
socioeconomics
This involves.
r -dosing (he gap between mg
population gr°^h and low economic Productivity increasing economic returns:
through planned reduc on J™ developjnent process through holistic integrated
°
Signed » expedite the structural differentiation of th.
economy and employment.
,
L "reducing the rate o^njralto^r^^P capacity of the environment by taking
PP p u
and social status of women by freeing them from restrictions
-
and making it possible for them to panics
productively in the larger community,
z -significantly improving the social and economic status of vulnerable groups (women, youth, children and the elderly).”
Specific objectives
Specific objectives are
J "reducing the current total fertility rate of 7.7 children per woman to approximately 4,0 by the year 2015;
□ "reducing maternal, infant and child morbidity and mortality rates as well as promoting the level of general welfare of the population,
' 1 '‘significantly increasing female participation at all levels of the education system;
- "removing all legal and customary practices militating against full enjoyment of economic and social rights by women including the full enjoyment of property rights and access to full employment,
ensuring spatially balanced population distribution patterns with a view to
maintaining environmental security and extending the scope of development activities, improving productivity in agriculture and introducing off-farm non agricultural
activities for the purpose of employment diversification;
L mounting an effective countrywide population information and education programme addressing issues pertaining to small family si^e and its relationship with human welfare and environmental security-
Major Tasks
Major tasks to achieve the policy objectives include
_• P ® ring the quality and scope of family planning service delivery
r
onTesmdvTfTr^ collecl™’
and dissemination, particularly focusing
on the study of mta«tatoas|up between population factors and development variables ~ d7™Xh^rr?,!enirig d0mestic caPac’l? training in population, not only in
S-ULC Baro-Akobo River Batin intern ted Dodopmenl Master Plan
M-SSOC IO-ECONOMICS
2.2.2 Organisation for the implementation of the policy
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
Since populatiorvdemographic factors arc to be regarded as both determinants and consequences of the level of economic and social development, there is a strong necessity to design multi-disciplinary population programmes. In the past, the required organisation to implement the policy consisted in considering it as a special sector in the Office of the Prime Minister. This involved the establishment of
at a national level
0 a National Population Council (TMPC) chaired by the Prime Minister, in charge of
developing specific policies and programmes, defining a broad legal framework for
1EC actions, and to review short, medium and long term plans of action;
0 an Office of Population within the Office of the Prime Minister, in charge of
activities implementation and co-ordination, action follow-up, etc.
E regional and zonal level the organisations wili be responsible for the functional of a system of registration of vital events, data collection, for mobilising community participation in papulation activities, reporting to Regional council;
0 regional level regional population council (RPC) and regional population office
(RPO)
0 zonal zonal population council (ZPC) and zonal population office (ZPO)
0 wereda committees on population and related activities
2.2.3 Organisations involved in the implementation of the policy
Responsibilities of various governmental and non governmental organisations have been defined, in order to better co-ordinate the actions of any participant in the Policy To understand to what extent the Population Policy involves administration offices, the list of organisations quoted in the document is as follows
0 Mini stry of Educat i on
- M i n i stry of I n format ion
Ministry of Health
- Ministry of Labour and Social .Affairs
□ Ministry of Housing and Urban Development
□ Ministry of Planning and Economic Development
Ministry of External Economic Co-operation
Ministry of Natural Resource Development and Environment Protection Ministry of Justice
Ministry of Agriculture
i- Ministry of Culture & Sports
□ Addis Ababa University
the Central Statistical Authority
- Family Guidance Association of Ethiopia and other NGOs.
TAMUULG River Bairn tniqjrwcd Dnelopmoit Master Plan
JA -6AXNEX 3A POPLLATION ASPEq^
SOCIO-ECONOMICS
3. ANALYSIS
3.1 Population Characteristics
jjj Preliminary-comments
Administrative units 
„J..
. ■. , • ..
Cher the last 10 years, the definition of administrative units (especially, the regions and awrajas. and even a few weredas and/or fanners associations) have changed Thus it is difficult to make any comparison between past and present data Sometimes, during recent years, the changes in the definition lead to using the same name for different units for example, lliubabor has been successively.
0 a "region- in 1984. when the population census was organised; its population was
907,375 persons
r an ’administrative region" the boundaries of which are not well defined according to the Ministry of Health immunisation coverage report for 1* quarter 1995, the corresponding 1995 population estimate would be 1,149,046
□ a "zone", intermediary unit between a wereda and a region: according to the latest estimates issued from the cartographic preparation of the 1994 population census, the corresponding population would be 326,507 persons
The use of the 1984 census results and as demographic basis for the planning work obliges us to make geographical adjustments That is why the "old regions", which do not correspond anymore to an existing administrative unit, are used in several cases, in fact, when the 3 names of Hlubabor, Kcffa, Wellega are used together, this means that the names refer to the "old definition", i.e that prevailing in 1984
The Project Area
r Basin which
The Project Area corresponds to the catchment area of the Baro-.Akobo River ^RDCO- includes an Upper Basin already defined by another study earned out y 
GEOSERV in 1994, and a Lower Basin defined and surveyed by a Russian Team
In order to be able to calculate the population of the Project .Area, and to be as possible, the boundaries of the various weredas belonging (partially or totally) to S^|C Area have been digitised on a G1S (see Volume TV Map Album page 2). Then it w for to give an accurate geographical definition of the Project Area, i e a list of rtherrnore.
each of them the area and the percentage of its area within the Project .Area u knowing the exact location of their boundaries allows their present population to accurately, considering only the Enumeration Areas within the Project Area
1
aim of this work is fq msponsiUhn of the census ^
jistnets, m urban areas) with an o. *** 
arras where list approamaiCK i(^°ran fnumerator dunno, 'cmtor> w smah areas, called Enumeration Areas
C for he will
(a bnJe mcir- census period of data collection in the field. 1 c
a hnlc " rural areas;
r a—'^^L^£_:on-esnon^
 enumerator will be given the
wortt
a nuP of his zone and a list of localities lot
TAMS-tLG
3A-7SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
The Baro-Akobo River Basin, as defined for the Project, has an area ot 75,912 km\ as detailed in Table I
1993 Population Numbers by "Present Region" within The Project Area
Region
POPULATION
area
No.
Name
Numbers
%
Sei
ratio
km’
%
Density (a)
4
Oromiva
1 296 237
598
96 3
23 770
31 3
54.5
6
Asosa
239 144
11.0
98 7
7412
9.8
32.3
11
Southern
45 I 498
20 8
98 6
18 668
24 6
24.2
12
Gambela
182 776
8.4
105 1
26 062
34.3
7.0
Total
2 169 656
100.0
97.8
75 912
100.0
28.6
4,a) TcHji density fuTh«n■ tutu) pijpuLincfi). in pcrKww ' krrr
J. 2 Population Size
Present population
In November !993\ according to census cartography estimates, the Project .Area population was a little less than 2.2 million people. Detailed information about number of households, population, sex ratios and densities by type of residence and wereda is presented in Table 1 of the Appendix
/Lwssmfflf of the
To a certain extent, (he above mentioned figure is underestimated for various reasons
• census cartography, which includes a rapid dtc census, is accurate to plus or minus 10 to 15%;
• the Project Area is an area were many nykgettt used to come, particularly in the Lower Basin (Gambela region and Gura Tarda in Southern Region) either as ’’UNHCR registered refugees , or as ordinary in-migrants In January 1996, there were more than 60,000 Sudanese refugees in the Lower Basin, in the camps ofBonga, Fugnido and Dimma But as a matter ot fact, pan of the real number of refugees has been considered as residing in Ethiopia and then they have been pre-censused in 1993: the sex ratios are so high (105 males per 100 females on average in Gambela Region, but 108 in the 4 wcredas more affected by the phenomenon Gambela, Itang, Jikawo and Gura Tarda}, that the most probable explanation is the onset of strong and specific in-migration flows towards the Lower Basin
• it is occasionally s^d that 10 to 20,000 Fell at pastoralists who are projected to have come 30 years ago from Nigeria and settled in the Project Area, would still be living in remote areas of Gambela region, without being censused. If this is true, the demographic pressure on Gambela region would be 10% higher
p Reference date for cartographic work in the area.
TAMS-ELG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
3A-8SOCIO-ECONONnCS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
Households
The number of households amounted to a little
les
s than V2 million:
418,000 in rural areas and
41,000 in urban areas The average size of a h
ous
ehold was higher
in rural areas than in urban
areas: 4.8 persons against 4 2 Bigger househ
old
size was found
in Gambela Region, smaller
size in Southern Region: 5.3 persons against 4.2.
Major regional differences in densities
The Lower Basin has very' low densities (9% of the population living on about 42% of the territory') and the Upper Basin much higher densities
• Oromiya, i.e the central part of the Upper Basin, accommodates 60% of the population living within the Project Area, but on a small territory' which accounts only for 31% of the total; as a consequence, the highest density is found here with 55 people per knt2, which is fairly high compared to the agricultural capacities of most of the land
• in Gambela (the major part the Lower Basin), a small population (7% of the total) lives in a large territory (34% of the total). So the density is very low; i.e 7 persons per km2 But, since a major part of this territory cannot be used for agriculture, a "net” density excluding useless lands would still be low having the same density as that of Oromia would mean that 87% of the land in Gambela (i e. 22,700 km1) could not be used for food production
• in Asosa and Southern regions, the relation between population numbers and the areas where they live is more balanced the densities are respectively 32 and 24 people per km2. And if only the pen of the Southern region in the Upper Basin were considered (i.e without Gura Farda, where only 7,810 inhabitants live in 5,873 km2), the corresponding
2
density would be 35 people per km .
Major geographical differences in densities
Differences are easily identified when analysing densities on a larger scale map. The 1993 total population density map (see Volume IV Map Album page 6) gives a 5 class cartographic description of densities for each wereda Three zones are clearly evident.
2
• a zone of low densities (less than 15 persons per km ) which corresponds more or less accurately to the Lower Basin, including Gambela region and the northern part of the Southern region to Gesha and Shasha weredas
• a zone of medium densities (from 15 to 60 people per km ), which corresponds to the western fringe of the Upper basin, from North including Asosa region to the Centre including a major part of Oromia (west Kelem zone, Gore zone, north Shekicho zone) towards Sigmo wereda to the north and Gesha Tinishu wereda to the south This intermediary agro-etological area corresponds to a mode of soil occupation which is also intermediary between low densities of the Lower Basin, and high densities which arc found in the Upper Basin
• 2 zones of high densities (more than 65 persons per km*j both located in the Upper Basin one to the north-east (mainly east Kelem zone, Gimbi zone, lllubabor zone and east Buno Bedele zone), and the other to the south-east (around the towns of Tepi in Yeki wereda and Mizan Teferi in Temanja Yazhi wereda).
1
TAMS-UIG Baro-Akobo Rixer Basin Integrated De*riopment5UMer Plan
3A-’SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
Table 2 Population numbers by "1984 region" in 1993
Part of the "1<
J84 region" in the Project Area
PROJECT
[Uubabor
1 Kcffa
Wcllega
Area
11984
rural
628 551
287 906
713 732
1 630 189
urban
48 912
13 463
44 469
[106 844
Total
677 463
301 369
758 201
1 737 033
Urban rate t%)
7.2
14.5
15,9
6.2
sex ratio: rural
9R a
103.8
101.3
U00.9
i sex ratio urban
94.8
90.3
95 4
94.4
1993
J rural
827 627
314 437
852 547
1 994 610
urban
88 035
20 608
66 403
175 046
Total
915 662
335 044
918 950
2 169 656
Urban rate (%)
9.6
6,2
4.2
81
sex ratio: rural
98,2
98.8
96.9
97 6
sex ratio urban
95 6
<95 5
96.4
95.9
Population Growth Rate 1984-93 (% per aimumJ
Rural
294
093
I 89
2.15
Urban
6 38
4 58
4.31
5.33
Total (rural+ urban )
3.22
1 12
2 04
2.37
Naturahnct
(a) AuufEpttcn made bv 'he I9t4 
2.51 2 71
3 02 2 81
uulyiti foe ea^b "1984 n-por.' ccmtriercd m a wholt. Since i! hu been decided not io
take account of nB^aLont. Lhoc rates were used as if lhev corresponded m the tame time to rurfureJ increase and to net p-cuxh.
The reality depicted by the map gives an interesting, but fairly crude, idea of demographic pressure on the land, and so of the corresponding settlement possibilities in the area. A crude idea, because the areas used for calculating densities are global, whatever the use of the land and its potential; so the agro-ecological possibilities for supporting population are not considered And this way of doing would be the only one which could make possible an analysis of the situation in terms of Population Support Capacity3 (PSC).
The PSC mode! is explained in Annex 2 A sections 4 2 and 4.3 and mapped in Volume IV page 14.
LI. J Past evolution: I9&4-1993
(jlfibal evolution
Detailed information about population numbers and densities in 1984 and 1994, number of resettled people and average yearly growth rates, by type of residence and wereda in the Project Area is presented in Table 2 of the Appendix
In order to calculate yearly growth rates, a total duration of 9 5 years has been considered i e front May 1984 to November 1993.
3 If it is generally considered that erocon takes place on culmaied land, it is also true that one of the maior sources of Land degradaiion is livestock density and poor management of grazing land.
TA.MS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan ”
3 A - JOSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPe^
. d,. Protect Area in 1985 and probably thoroughly 
1
A population exploston aff** J transformed the living conditions ™Xdenly in the
1
preVailmg before About 600.000 peop!t correSponds to a population increase of
area in 1991. as tllustra.ed in Figpt, ,
35% ta «>iy °« “tTXure was overwhelmingly higher than before, not only 
Dunns 6 years, demograph c £«« because of the
- temporaIy
dld not
necessity of taking care of it in order not to destroy it) in
Figure I 1984-1995 Evolution of Gambela's Population, by Type of Resident
Even if some precautions in order to cope with this acute problem had been taken by public authorities, the consequences are very serious and may be irreversible The example o. Gambela region where the intensity of the phenomenon was biggest is very interesting between 1985 and 1990. usual residents were less than 20% of the total population in the area , because of the mass presence of refugees and resettled households And, even if most immigrants returned home, its population (considered as usual) has doubled in less than 10 years Development planning with such population fluctuations is clearly very difficult.
The refugees
rC S^cPL‘!1ahOn m the Pf°lcc1 over Oie last 10 vears, has fluctuated from 1995
from SX
from Northern regions of Ethiopia to escape the war with Eritrea, fled to Sudan) to
(l '“ 11 ■h' «« “™ « million Elhiopim.fr coming mainly
approximately 400,000 m the early 1990’s. Then in May 1991 following the downfall of the
to Southern Sudan The number of renaming refij inJeased again, slowly but
continuously, from 20,000 m 1991 to about 61.000 in JaXy 1996. Most of them fled in 4 * *
mXtZVr 3T° a'
fled th "tr camps and^etumed back home
change huge were the gaps between
------ -
4 Even if the figures arc viewed as rough estimates rather than as accurate daui.
change
vccn
°f indigenous people and
.he major conclusion »»ll not
__________
——
' TAMS-UlXr Baro-Akobc Rher Bum Integrated
3A-11
Dev eiopmcnt Master PlanSOCIO-ECOMOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
1992 (mainly Uduks) and
1993 (mainly Nilotic?), the causes were critical food shortage due
to drought and crop failures, civil war and inter-ethnic tensions in Soum Sudan
At present, the refugees are accommodated in 3 camps
□ Bonga. 38 kilometres north east of Gambela on the Gambela- Addis road, with 16.455 people most of them are Uduks - a group almost devastated to the point or extinction by Sudan's civil war For them, there is a strong need for land, as they arc mainly sedentary' farmers;
L Fugnido, 50 km from Abobo. with 34.4IS refugees, the majority of which belong to Nuer, Dinka and Shill uk ethnic groups which are much more cattle breeders than farmers According to UNHCR and local authorities, the number of refugees in this camp is overestimated by at least 15.000persons
Dim ma, near by the southern boundarv of Gura Farda wereda. with 10,547 refugees,
the majority of which being of Nilotic ethnic groups
The total number of refugees is considered to be not less than 45,000 According to a UNHCR note dated October 25th 1995, "without peace in sight, it is highly unlikely that Sudanese refugees will repatriate in 1996 However, no major refugee influx has occurred from Sudan'1 In other words, UNHCR thinks that refugees will be staying in Ethiopia for a few years,
To what extent were the refugees taken into account by the census cartographic preparatory' work"1 According to CSA, they have been included in the pre-census operations, indeed, the high sex ratios observed in Gambela Region (105 males for 100 females) may be the consequence of this But, on the other hand, how could Gambela Wereda accommodate 16,000 refugees when its total rural population is projected to be 11.9827 And the same question remains for Gog & Jor Wereda, whose population was 14,134 in 1993, and where Fugnido camp is located Therefore, it can be assumed that part of the refugees have not been pre-censured (those living in camps, and officially registered), and part have been considered as part of the population of Ethiopia and hence censured (those living in village*: or towns).
As a conclusion, the influx of refugees has certainly accounted for part of the population
growth in Gambela Region But most of them have probably not been included in the census cartography counts Accordingly, the demographic pressure on land and environment is 
probably far higher than the census numbers would indicate, especially when considering that Gambela Region's population is about 180,000 and the additional refogee population close to
77ie resettled people
Subsequent to the 1984-85 drought and consequent famine, which affected especially the northern parts of the country, a major resettlement programme has been undertaken' The government was involved tn moving over half a million people who had no prospect of beine self-sufficient m their old habitat which mainly consists of degraded lands After resettlement the government supported the settler families by providing them with fool health care clothing, etc. until they were able to support themselves. The eovemment also built basic
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akubc River Bunn Imegrarcd Development Master Plan
3A - 12SOCIO-ECONOMICS
• infraeructures and amenities such as schools, health stations, roads 
ZXpp" le *.t« systems. market places, flour mills, etc.”
The resettlers came mainly from Wollo (65%), Shoa (19%) and Tigray (16%), as shots, j, Table 1 This explains the ethnic composition of new comers, which is completely d,ffCTo. from the existing one in the Project Area
Table 3 Resettled people within the Project Area by ethnic group and 1984’ region in 1988
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECT
Ethnic
Total ”1984 region”
----------
group
IDubabor
KefTa
WeUega
Numbers
% Numbers %
Numbers %
Arnhan 55 800
47.3
10737 523
86 892 80.6
Tipeuax 35 627
301
5 235 25.5
9 810 9 1
Orxno 7 078
60
3 798
185
7 439 69
Kmbaza 12 623
10.7
595
29
323 03
Hadivt 4 600 39
2
c 216
0.2
Age*
lh
20 0.1
970
09
Other 1 888
1.6 143 0.7 —
2 157
2.0
Total
117 970
l 100,0
20 530
100 0
107 807
100.0 1
Somce Tams-V-u eCtrrulea taxed on Pjpon t* cnn, of ^ i, „ 
aa
f
hai „„s „d 0„ nnty a
cnangei tn rte rtJ<nkm/nt areas dm.
Among the distinct resettlement schemes under which peasants made their new homes -
“ alc" •’low and "intcgratcd" *• the most significant were the first two, with 45%
and . 0 /o of the resettlers respectively The two biggest large scale settlements were Asosa people (K143 households) and 18,808 hectares of land, then Gambela with
44.664 people (11,234 households) and 15,600 ha of land
The sudden surge of so much population corresponded to an 11% increase in about one year,
X)
4 y “5 6 °f
** «• ~ ™ » -my sp-d
J the more affi-ctrtI areas were Gambela region where the arrival of rentiers involved, on average, a 54% population increase. Gura Farda wereda 7 a „,~da
(76%). Dalie Wabera (43%), Hawa Gelan (36%) Oc taM^i'Z^"“ha “d °"h* Tilh”' md ■" ""pan 7 ^XtalSed
(9V#)*
d
5 Source Report on census of population and housing and on jj/rprv of dem resettlement art as CS A. Addis Ababa. February 1991.
changes in the
6 Large scale settlements were more or less similar to state farms, highly mechanised, with
of production Comersely, integrated sctilements consisted in a placement within existing p?/ c°“ccl,vc s?’sTcni
TAMS-ULG Baro.Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Mju^t PlaxT'—9E‘ ^
a
on —
3A- 13SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A population aspects
109 in lUubabo’r and Wellega. 100 in KefFa In 1988. according to a Survey of dernograph.c changes in the resettlement areas, more than 80 % of them declared they would prefer to go back to the region they had left, and in 3 years, already 15 % of the resettled households hau
left the area where they had been resettled.
It is generally considered that the bulk of them left their resettlement area, although some died because of diseases they were not used to But to what extent It is difficult to conclude with accurate figures, even if the principle cannot be denied.
Most analysts of resettlement policy give a fairly negative description of this process ("slow pace, high cost and low productivity"):
"Since soil fertility is a major factor in improving agricultural production in Ethiopia, the impact of large scale settlements [mainly in Asosa and Gambela] on the land has been devastating This indiscriminate clearing of dense forest with bulldozers and other heavy equipment has removed the top soil io within 10 to 20 centimetres, a part of the soil of which is crucial in maintaining fertility This top soil is easily detachable and is irreversibly lost due to rain or wind erosion. Some extension agents assert that the relative decline in yields in Asosa after the initial year may be related to the removal of a large amount of top soil in the first year clearing of the forest cultivation" .
"Some resettlement areas, such as Gura Farda [ ] and several villages within settlement complexes had to be abandoned after considerable labour and capital inputs, owing to poor soils, water shortages and water-logging. In the lowlands, settlements displaced minority groups practising ecologically sustainable modes of subsistence [...] in the highlands, where population density was greater, antagonism and clashes with the local population occurred, disputes have been reported over land use and demarcation"8.
3.1.4 Geographical Differences in Growth Rates
Results of these various events are easily identified on a larger scale map. when analysing the population growth rates by wereda The map « Population growth by wereda from 1984 to 199j » ( see Volume IV', Map Album page 7) gives a cartographic description of these rates (related to the total population) for each wereda Globally, the Upper Basm experienced low growth rates, and in several cases, negative rates, conversely, very high rates are found in all the weredas of the Lower Basin
Three categories of weredas may be identified;
TAMS-VLG BaroAkobo River Basin Integrated ttodopment Master Plan
3A-14ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
SOCIO-ECONOMICS
Present situation
The age and sex distribution proposed by the 1990 National Family and Fertility Survey is shown in Table 4. The extent to which these data can be used regionally is open to question, when they are affected by the weight of urban areas (even if it is only 15%. including Addis Ababa and big towns), and also by the effects of war, drought and famine which was present in most regions in the country during so many years, except the Project Area
Table 4 National age and sex distribution by type of residence, in 1990
National
1990 Rural
1990 Urban
Males Females
Males Females
0 - 9 years
10-24
25-59
60 +
Total
35.9 34 9
30.3 29.6
26.8 30.0
70 5,5
100.0 100.0
32.7 28 6
34.2 35 9
27.0 28.9
6 1 6.6
100,0 100.0
Sojcj Vtfwna,l
op aL
As a conclusion, it has been decided to derive from the three regional 1984 age and sc* distributions the age and sex distribution of the Project Area
Recent evolution
Sex ratios have not changed much over the last 10 years, in spite of the major events which occurred in t e arez In rural areas, the percentage of men decreased slightly indicating
TAMS ULG Bjro-Akobfl Rh r Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
C
3A -16SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
probably the intensification of an out-migration flow: from 101 males per 100 females, lo 98 The difference between rural and urban areas did not decrease much: higher sex ratios in rural areas (98 against 94 in 1993) may be explained by several behaviours.
propensity' to out-nugrate may be stronger in urban areas, than in rural areas.
— specific out-migration profiles may exist, the bulk of out-migrants (from rural or urban areas) being females This existed over the Derg years, when there was the risk of being enrolled in the army (which was much higher in towns, than in the countryside) In tact, many analysts point out this phenomenon, but the 1984 census results did no,.
Age and sex distribution according to the National Population Policy of Ethiopia document . 'since the level of fertility has not changed at all, there is no reason to think that there has been any change in the age composition of the population since then"
3.1.6 Ethnic groups
Not much is known about the major ethnic groups in the Project .Area The only available information relates to year 1984. and to the regions which were existing in that rime
L in rural areas, Oromos are the major group: from 90% of the population in Woliega, to 50% in Keffa The other groups are marginal, except in Keffa where Keffa and Domete groups have significant numbers 17% and 11% But Keffa Region accounts only for 18% in the Project Area.
L in urban areas, Oromos are the major group (55% on average), but in smaller proportions: from 73% in Woliega to 30% in Keffa Other groups are important, such as .Amharas (24%) and to lower extent Gurages (particularly in Jllubabor and Keffa)
The ethnic unbalance observed in 1984 in the Project Area may have partially (and probably slightly) changed because of the arrival many in-migrants belonging to specific ethnic groups, Amharas for resettled people and Nilotic tribes for refugees. But, since the ethnic composition of out-migration flows is not known, it is difficult to estimate the real consequences on the ethnic composition of the population within the Project .Area.
Table 5 % Share Of Major Ethnic Groups In Each ”1984 Region”, In 1984
Ethnic
Rural
Urban
Group
Iliubabor
Keffa
Wellegn
Iliubabor
Keffa
Wellega
Agnuak
2.8
E
E
J 37
e
s
Amhara
3.8
2.6
3,3
28.7
22.9
19.6
Doinete
£
11,0
E
E
9.7
£
Guragc
022
0,5
£
7,2
12,2
18
Mocha
4.9
0,2
£
2,6
12,2
E
Kcffe
3,2
17.0
E
2,9
0,2
E
Oromo
78.2
50.1
90.1
47.4
29.5
72,6
TjgTKTr
0.2
0,1
0.1
2,8
2,5
Others
1.7
6.7
18.5
6.5
4.7
10.8
3.3
Total Rural
100.0
1D0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Office of the Prime Minister. The Transuona] Government of Ethiopia - Addis Ababa. April ] 993.
TAMS-ULC Burq-Akobn River Buis Integrated Development Master PirnSOCIO-ECONOMICS
if is we|| known that there are significant differences in fertility bet*.
ANNEX 3A population aspect
Oromos 
to Conner having a higher fert.hty.
3.1.7 Religion
Not much is known about the major religious groups in the Project .Area The only available information relates to year 1984, and to the regions which were existing in that time There seems to be major differences between rural areas (mainly Muslim) and urban areas (mainly Christian)
~ in rural areas, Muslims are the major group in Illubabor and Keffa respectively 5]’/ and 47% Conversely, they are few (13%) in Wollega. where Christians are 85% Traditional religions are marginal from 11% in Keffa to 1.6% in Wollega
j in urban areas. Christians are the major group in the 3 regions: from 85% in Wollega to 68% in Keffa Muslims are the second group, from 31% in Keffa to 14% in Wollega Traditional religions are marginal
Table 6 % Share Of Major Religions In Each "1984 Region", In 1984
f---------------
Religion
Illubabor
Keffa WeUcga
• Rural Chnsto Muslim Other Total Rural
44 7
47.4
7.9
100.0
38.1
50.5
114
1000
85 1
133
1.6
1000
• Urban
Christian
73.0
682
85 3
Muslim
23 6
30.6
I4J
Other
3.4
12
06
Total Rural
1000
100.0
1000
Source Oopufanw sr,d houwrg ctnM IW. Analytical '•port, (rUuhdxx.
Keffa. Wcllega Reports), op ch
In other respects, it is well known that there are Significant differences in fertility between Christians and Muslims, the latter having a higher fertility
Urbanisation
3.2.1 Definitions 
U in the 1984 population and housing census ^niinistrative capitals (regional, awraj
.
an urban centre was defined as "a locality 
3
with 2000 or more inhabitants. Moreover, al ®
and weredal and localities in which urban dw'el tjQn size«
considered as urban centres, irrespective of the P°P________________ _____ —-
i tions were established were
assOC a
_ _____________ - r _____________________________
TAMS-ULG BaroAkobe River Basin Integ «
,cu
Devdopmem Master PlanSOCIO-ECONOMICS
annex 3A population aspects
□ the 7992 Ethiopia Statistical Abstract gave the following definition 'urban areas refer
to all localities in which urban dwellers associations have been formed A list of 297
major towns that have been accorded urban status by the Ministry of W orks and Urban Development".
J. 2.2 Past Situation (in 1984)
The "urban population" in the Project .Area was 106.844 people. It represented 6.2% ot the total population, which is a very low urban rate, al! the more since 30% oi the 'urban population" lived in towns the population of which was less than 2,000 In that time, among the 14 towns bigger than 2,000, there was not one of substantial size or wnh reasonable level of modem facilities
I - 7 "towns" ranged from 2,000 to 3.000, the total population of which accounted for 15% of the total urban papulation;
Z 4 ranged from 3,000 to less than 5,000 inhabitants: Asosa, Gambela, Mugi and Tepi,
□ 1 from 5,000 to less than 10,000: Mizan Teferi;
□ 2 towns had more than 10,000 people: Metu and Dembi Dolo, but no one had a population larger than 15,000
One must keep in mind that most of the major "bigger towns" in Western Ethiopia are located outside the Project .Area, but not far from its eastern boundary among others, from south to north, Jimma (60,200 inhabitants in 1984}. Agaro (18,400), Bedele (7,200), Gimbi (14,300), Nekemte (28,700)
3.2,3 Present situation
In November 1993, the urban population in the Project Area was 175,046 It represented 8.1% of the total population, which is very low: the Project Area remained a rural area, and no large town has emerged Furthermore 13% of the "urban population" live in towns the population of which was less than 2,000 Nou- the number of towns with a population bigger than 2,000 is 24
14 towns ranging from 2,000 to less than 5,000, the total population of which accounted for 27% of the total urban peculation,
□ 3 towns ranging from 5,000 to less than 10,000 Gore, Tepi and Mizan Teferi Gore’s population increased very slowly because of very strong net-out-migration, conversely, Tepi's population was doubled
Z 4 towns had more a population bigger than 10,000 Asosa with 10,500. the 3 other ones (Metu, Gambela and Dembi Dolo) having about 18,000 people each. But there is no town bigger than 20.000 Higher annual growth rates were found in Gambela (16 %) which may correspond to settlement of households previously resettled in the area as well as to the influence of activities related to refugees, and Asosa (11%) which is probably strongly related to immigration of households nreviously resettled in rural areas
The evolution of the urban population is showm in Table 7
TAMS-LLG Baro-Akobu River Basin Integrated Dcvdopmcnt Master Plan
3A-19ANNEX 3A population
SOC1O-ECONO^1,CS
Tible 7 Evolution Of The Urban Population In The Project Area
Tc»a 198-1 Region
1984
1993 1984-93 Growth
Other source
for 1993
L
• Bigger towns
Asosi
Wcllcga
1
Mu& Wellega
Welle a
4 049
4 452 | 14 078
10 449
4 523
18 783
1049
0.17
3.08
10 004 (*)
8 148 (b)
g
M«u niubabo: Gore Hlubator
12 920
6 737
4 452
18304 3 73
Tepi
Dlubabor
7 633
9 466
132
8 26
Gambela Llubabo:
4 267 17 194 158
24 293 (b)
8 414 (b)
8 414 (b)
17 194 fc)
Mxzan Tcfen Refill Stord Binrr Towns
5 767
9 T9
571
13 350 (d)
56 722 9613! ™ J
• Smaller towns
Total Cuban
50122 70 915 489
106 844 
175 046
5.33
(a) Source Aioia Development Plan • Fj/wi report terror:** tummary) - NVP1. July 1995
(b) Soane AJCC XaEOSSJiV flud> on Lbe Upper Bai in
(e) Source Gambela Development Plan ■ Finalreport latcuiive mmmary i • NLTt. March 1995
(4) Source FeanbUjtyPreUminory Destgn Repon m *12 Towns waler and uzutation ttudv" - GIBB SEURb-CA, Sep: ember 1995
The 1984-1993 evolution has been fairly slow, on average, 5 3% per year, were this rate to remain unchanged in the future, the period for the population to double would be 13 years But, this rate is higher than the rate of natural increase (assumed to be approximately 3,4% per year over the last ten year period), which means that 1,9% of the increase has come from in-migration rural-urban migration of course, but also influx of non registered Sudanese refugees (for example in Gambela) and resettled households leaving hard conditions of life lC rural areas to expected better conditions in town (for example, in Asosa or Gambela)
3.2/ Future Evolution
Existing studies proposed population forecasts for 3 towns Asosa, Gambela and M<zan Teferi
□ Asosa if the population growth rate has been high over the past 15 years and is no* decreasmg. thts is partly due to rural settlement programmes which’ have been implemented in the area between the years 1979 to 1985. for examole according to Ethiopian Social and Relief Fund, at least 5,000 returnees can be foundin'Asosa zone
□ The Urban Master Plan took account of the existence of specific activities in the surrounding areas (mainly, gold - primary and placer marble and construction works) of bad climatic conditions such as tsetse fly prevalence in rural areas particularly during rainy season, and of the presence of a transport hub of Bambasi not far from Asosa
TAMS-ULG B>ro-Akobo River Basiu Integrated Doclopment
3A-20
~ ------SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A population aspects
Table 8 Assumptions about Future Evolution of the Population of Major Towns
Town Target date Population Aver. PGR
(%)
Source
Asosa
Gambela
2005 (c) 17 339 5.10
2005 (c) 32 758 5 77
(a)
(bj
Mizan Trferi
2017 (di 68 500 7.37
(c)
(a) Source: -bojn Development Plan - Final report cxrrwfivr .wmnayj - op Clt
(b) Soorcc: Gambela Development Plan - Final report fcxrrwm** tummary) - op. CjL
» c) Source Preliminary Design Report m *12 Youth waler and SaniLStlCHl
1
study* - Op-ci t
Urban planners proposed an important decrease in the densities the area of the town is projected to increase very quickly, from 352 ha in 1994 to 900 ha in 2005, this would involve a decrease in the crude density from 28 to 19 inhabitants per ha. The housing areas would be multiplied by 2.7 (from 134 to 360 ha), and the corresponding net densities be respectively 75 and 48.
□ Gambela the population growth rate has been high over the past 15 years, because of very important in-migration, accordingly Gambela is one of the very few towns in Ethiopia where males outnumber females, with a sex ratio of 112.
El According to a population and housing census conducted by the Bureau of Works and Urban Development of gambela Region, the most numerous ethnic groups represented in the town are Anuaks (38%). Oromos (30%), Amharas (10%), Tigreans (8 4%) and Kembatas (5.4%)
Urban planners proposed a decrease in the densities: the area of the town is projected to increase from 578 ha in 1994 to 1200 ha in 2005, this would involve a slight decrease in the crude density from 30 to 27 inhabitants per ha The housing areas would be multiplied by 3 (from 144 to 430 ha), and the corresponding net densities be respectively 120 and 76.
Our assumptions consisted in considering separately the evolution of the population of the 8 bigger towns, and the rest of the "other urban areas" (smaller towns):
Bigger towns it is obvious that Gambela and Asosa past population growth was partiallv due to external events which probably will not occur again in the future But this does not mean that their growth will be as low as the other towns of the area In fact, it is considered 2 groups of towns
L towns with net in-migration, i.e. where the number of new settlers will remain higher than the number of people who leave the town in order to settle in a bigger town either close by the Project Area (such as Jimma, Agaro. Bedele. Gimbi, Nekempte, etc ) or further (such as Addis Ababa).
0 Gambela, as the capital city of the Lower Basin, will have the higher growth rate in the Project Area, but the rate will gradually decrease because of the size of the town and probable problems involved by its development (public facilities employment, etc.);
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akoho River Basin Integraied Development Master Plan
JA -21SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASp^
• r D»oinn 6 and because of its fairly small size, will 0 \wsa.as't’' Pl,alC'"OkfR'8 J! 0VH the ne« 40 years (tn fact, the
a
■ , reasonably high
„ Of Tp' ''JweX tPhenr'"a“te’ *o* ver the next 40 years,
town in the Project Area. viz Miaan Teferi);
Table 9
TAMS-ULG Assumptions about Growth Rates of the Urban Population (average % per year over the period)
i To™ ■ IMS* 1*M-2000 
• Bigger towns
2000-2015 2015-2035
Gambeia
Asosa
Tepi
MiunTcfen
Mefu Demb: Dolo Gore
Mup
15 80
14.6
8.26
641
3.73
308
186
0.17
Total biggrr towns 415
I • Smaller towns
4.68
7.59
4.95
5.90
484
2 87
2 61
103
068
4.23
4.34
6 05
4 84
5 70
4.75
2.50
2.31
1.21
084
4.12
3.24
4 53
4 34
5.11
4.26
1.93
1 78
1 18
0.65
3.72
$24 
;
Total Urban
6.93
428
3.72
3.53
• Dembidolo and Metu’s population growth will be slightly higher than the natural increase, as if the number of in-migrants were fairly equal to the number of out’ migrants. These towns may be considered as stop over towns on the wav to bigger cities
□ /oh™ with net out-migration. j.e where the number of out-migrants will be higher than the number of new comers, which means that their growth rate will be less than then natural increase^ the 2 towns are located in the central pan of the Upper Basin, Mugi being close to Dembidolo and Gore near Metu [n both cases, the urban attraction will be exerted by the neighbouring ernes, not only on rural populations but also on the.r own population That >s why they w.11 lose a major pan of their natural increase; but their population will go on growing, but at a low speed
Smaller towns the population and corresponding growth rates were calculated as the difference between the global projected urban population and the population of hiuper towns The same rate was applied in each wcreda.
But in 3 weredas without any urban population in 1993. Meko. Sctema and Chora it was 
considered that, from year 2000, part of their population would be classified
as ur ban;
’ to
“ 
TA.MS-LLG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Mauer
3A - 22SOCIO-ECONOMICS
annex 3A population aspects
estimate the population number in 2000, the average "urban rate in smaller towns' in the Project .Area was applied to the rural population of the wereda
3.3 Fertility
3. fl Past Situation (in 1984)
Source of data
Fertility data relating to year 1984 which are presented below are derived from the 1984 Population census analytical census reports published by the C S A in 1990 These data are the only existing ones which relate to regions of the Project .Area (these regions do not exist any more as "administrative regions'")
Because of classic underreporting of births by women, especially by older ones, the reported data needed to be adjusted using 2 different indirect techniques Brass P/F and Trussel multipliers. Therefore, the following data are the adjusted ones
Table 10 Regional Fertility Patterns within the Project Area. By Type of Resident, In 1984
lliubabor
KefFa
Wdlnsi
Rural Urban Rural urban
Rural Urban
_______________________
• Age dtscribuiitm nf fcrtiU ty (adjusted)
15-19 \esrs 92 9.7
• Total Fertility Rite (children per woman aged 15-49)
73 7.0 7-A 6.75
7.6 72
20-24
IS - 29
30 -3J
[7.8 21,3
!«,6 21.9
17.3 ] 8,0
35-39 [6,7 16,4
40 - 44
45-49
I0J
7.4
ioa 53
Total itM.Q 1005
wV
IS.4 18,9
IV 23.6
18.6 21,1
16.6 17 J
10,0 8.1
7,9 4.9
100.0 100,0
6.4 5.7
195 20.7
21.7
IS J 19,3 16p 162
V 9.1 7.0 6.3
100.0 100.0
• Crude Birth Rate 41.1
____________
44 5
4] 3
Comments
□ fertility was very high in the Project Area (as well as in rural Ethiopia), and the schedule classic: fertility is concentrated in "peak ages" which are 20 to 35, but fertility is fairly high at younger ages (abouL 8%) and at older ages (more than 1*2% afier 40 years).
□ regional differentials in fertility seem to have been slight, Illubabor havine a lower fertility than Keffa and Wellega.
TAM5-ULG Baro-Akobo River Bmin Integrated Development Master Plan
3A-23ANNEX 3A POPULATION Asp .
SOCIO-ECONOMICS
Ef
3.3.2 Present Situation fin 1990)
Source of data
l and Fertility' Survey carried out in
Na(ionai farnl y
The most recent source is 
UnfortU
nately. the results are presented only ,
On
and published m June 199J, oy a
dd s
j -Ababa, Other urban and rural This means tha
'toMwme that there are neither regional nor local difference, i„ fc behaviour towards fertility
Table 11 National Fertility Patterns, By Type of Residence, In 1984 and 1990
-----------------[
1
1984
Rural Urban
1990
Rural Urban
Tout Femlitv Rite
8.0 6.3 8.0 64
Age distnburion of fertility (adjusted)
15-19 years
77 43 8.2 47
20-24 18.8 16.7 214 24.3
25-29 20.6 227 22 1 27.0
30-34 190 21 3 19.9 22.2
35-39
40-44
45-49
Total
16 5 18.1
10 4 105
7.0 6.4
| 100,0 100.0
159 12.1
8 1 81
4.5 1.6
100.0 100.0 )
Fertility
The present fertility partem is composed of the set of Age Specific Fertility Rates (ASFR)- i.e the number of live births per women in each 5 years age group of the reproductive ages (15-49), as shown in Table 11. These reported ASFR were adjusted using 3 different indirect techniques Brass P/F. Brass-Arriaga, and Brass relational Gompertz model
The adjusted .ASFR must be studied in the same time, in terms of’level" - Total Fertility R®te (TFR) - and •fertility schedule’ - the % distribution of ASFR -
1
□ ’level" : adjusted ' TFR corresponds to the average number of children a w'oman in reproductive age would give birth if the fertility conditions would remain the same until the end of her reproductive period
□ In rural areas, the adjusted TFR was located somewhere within the range of 7 6 to 8 3 children per woman, i.e an average of 8.0. This level is very high, and shows that the fertility transition has not yet started or if so it began less than 10 years ago
2 In other urban areas, i.e urban areas except Addis-Ababa, adjusted TFR is close to 6 .4 (and 4 6 for Add is-Ababa)
C "fertility schedule’ % distribution of ASFR corresponds to the relative contnbut.on of each age group of women to the total number of births which occurred in 1990
10 Usual h adjustments arc required in order jo fill in the gap in the declaration of births TAMS-ULG Bnro-Akobo River Bixin Integrated Development Muter Plm
3A-24SOCIOECONOMICS
-1990 Evolution of Fertility in Rural Areas
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
Fertility is high all along the reproductive ages, especially over the 20-34 age range with a maximum level in the 25-29 group (63 %) But the concentration is weak, when compared to peoples who have experienced fertility transition (i.e fall), in fact, fertility before 20 and after 35 arc fairly high (respectively 8 and 29 %), even if they seem to be less than recent African standards.
There are ethnic and religious differentials in fertility The standardised1 mean parity- varied as follows:
□ the higher was round among Sidamas Weiaytas and Oromos (respectively 4.3. 3.8 and 3 6), when Amharas have only 3 3,
the lower (3 5) would be found among Christians, when Muslims have 3.7 and
followers of traditional religions 3.9
Fertility determinants are, among others:
7 marriage is universal, and begins at early ages: 76% of women got married before the age of 18, and the mean age at marriage is 15.6 years Accordingly, childbearing begins at early ages. 63% of women became mothers before their 20th birthday.
□ contraception is more or less knou-n, and not practised especially; in 1990, 57% in rural areas and 94% in urban centres knew at least one method But the proportion of women having ever used one was only 4 2% in rural areas, against 24% in towns, the proportion of women currently using a method was lower: 2 6% in rural areas, and 20% in towns. In this matter, there existed important ethnic and religious differentials:
0 if 14% of Amharas had ever used a method, the proportion was 5 9% among
Gurages, and 5.2% among Oromos. And the respective proportion of current users of a method were 9.4% for the Amharas and 3,4% for the Oromos.
0 if 9 3% of Christians had ever used a method, the proportion was 4.2% among
Muslims .And the respective proportion of current users of a method were 6.1%
for Christians and 2 8% for Muslims
3.3,3 Recent evolution (1984- 90)
In rural areas, fertility pattern seem to have slightly increased during the recent years, as shown in graph below
In order to eLutunaic possible effects on pgno of age distribution differentials
TAMS-ULG BiroAkobo River Basin Integra ltd Devdopmeni Master Plan
3A - 25SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASFEci5
u Should be noted fta
6 ? jn 1W which means an increase of %
,
"’"I Jule' % distribution of ASFR has slightly changed m a way l011, _ “fertility schedulerange of 30.34 lbe importance of this 
58% in 'l9S4 to 63 % it 199°-when the sroup 35 and Over dKrea« from 34 to 28 %
~ • •, “"Z*™ -SSSS
s™ V - l”°“ U >«.. and h.,
aTnrfT S in 1900 The causes of this evolution would be mainly increase m the aaa
declined to «>
n()n methods Furthermore, some analysts assume the
£Sv of a -mini baby boom' Mte near future, due to demobilisation of the militan, i, 1991
3.3.4 Future evolution
CSA proposed in 1984 a set of assumptions
□ a constant birth ratio of 103 male births per 100 female births,
0 a fertility stagnation during 10 years (low assumption) or 15 years (medium assumption), and then a very sluggish decline according to medium assumption. TFR would show a decrease of 0.3 children per woman every 5 years (Table 12)
Table 12 CSA .Assumptions about Total Fertility Rate (Children Per Woman Aged 15-49)
—
Ulobabor Keffa
Wcllega
National
Year
Medium Law Medium Low Medium Low
Low Medium)
1984
1985-1990
1995-2000
2005-2010
2015 -2020
' 7-41 741 7.41 7.4] 7.35 627 6 92 6 37 591 4 M
7.69 7 69 ,4, 7.59
7.69 769 759 7 59
7 63 7 55 753 745
7-21 666 7.10 6.56
6 19 5.28 6.09 5 18
749 749
7 49 7.49 1
| 7.43 7 35
700 6.45
5.99 5 08
Source The 1984 populate and hmumg census of Etfaopus ■ Analytical report al notional level - Office of the popJauon end housing census of Ethiopia, Addjj Ababa, December 199!
The National Population Policy of Ethiopia proposed specific objectives ’reducing the current Total Fertility Ralc of ??
approximately 4 0 by the year 2015,
I2
H
- 2”j^re“,n? ,hC Prevalencc of contraceptive use from 4 0% to 44 0% by the year
The objective of reducing TFR bv 50% in 20 years seems fairly optimistic, as well as multiolving bv 10 the contraceptive prevalence rate And one can reasonably assume that thev will be hardly reached, that is why they will be considered as optimistic targets, which will correspond to our low assumption.
K vunnnA, a^e ii.cW.ng urban areasIAddisAbgbajs we.l as aU _2Janona_--- Development Matter Pltu,
---------------
3 A - 26SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
Our assumptions, summarised in Table 13, are the following. taking account of the general theory of fertility transition and the willingness of the Public Authorities to cope with population aspects of development in a wav to reduce drastically fertility It is considered that no change in the fertility pattern has affected both rural and urban areas from 1985 to 199, Thereafter, the decline will be much slower in rural areas than in towns
u in rural areas. TFR decline would be -0.2 children every 5 years from 1995 to 2020, and -0.35 from 2020 to 2035. But TFR would remain a little higher than 5.0 children per woman in 2030-2035 The % distribution of ASFR in 2035 would be close to that observed in 1990 in urban areas
□ in urban areas. TFR decline would be -0.3 children per woman every 5 years from 1995 to 2010. and then -0.5 children every 5 years until 2035 TFR would be a little higher than 3.5 children per woman in 2030-2035 The % distribution of Asfr in 2035 would be close to that observed in 1990 tn Addis Ababa
Table 13 TamS-ULG Assumptions About Total Fertility Rate For The Project Area
Yrar.'Prnm] r—-----------
Runl
Urban
1984
7.4?
706
1995-2000
7.29
6.76
2005-2010
6.89
6.16
2015 - 2010
6.49
5.16
2025 - 2 WO
5,79
4.16
Natality , i e. the number of births in the total population, will evolve differently than fertility'
there will be a long delay before it starts declining, as a consequence of the age and sex
distribution of the population as well as the growth rate, small groups of older women ( aged
45-49 years) being replaced by bigger groups of younger women (aged 15-19 years) The
Crude Birth Rale (CBR) will decrease
J in rural areas, by 11% in 45 years when the TFR's decline will be 27% In fact, CBR will increase continuously from 1985 to 2010, and then it will decline sluggishly; and even in 2030-35, CBR will probably still be close to 38%o;
□ in urban areas, by 36% in 45 years when the TFR's decline will be 48% In fact. CBR
will increase continuously from 1985 to 1995, and then it will decline; but, in spite of
this decline, in 2030-35. CBR will probably still be a little higher than 3O%o.3.4
Mortality
3. 4 1 Post Situation (in 1984)
Source of data mortality data relating to year 1984 which are presented below are derived
from the 1984 Population census analytical census reports published by the C.S.A in 1990 These data are the only existing ones which relate to regions of the Project .Area (these
regions do not exist any more now as "administrative regions")
Because deaths, particularly infant deaths reported in the census, are usually subject to substantial underreporting, the reported data needed to be adjusted using indirect techniques based on information on proportion dead among children ever bom by age of woman 2
TAMS-L’LC Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master PlanSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASpEcrs
_,fic mahods of estimation (Im* Sullivan) and 2 sets of model life tables (Coale.
SX west and Nonb) were tested The final est,mates were denved by Trusse! me^
implied by the Princeton West model Therefore, the following data are the
ones
There are variations in mortality levels in the Project Area. Illubabor and Keffa have much hither rates than Woliega. as well in rural areas as in towns. For example, people living ln WcUega Region have an expectation of life 8 years higher than those in Keffa
Table 14 Regional Mortality Indicators By Type Of Resident In 1984
— - -
Illubabor Keffa Woliega
National
Rvzii Urban Rural I Urban Rumi Urban Rural
Urban
Infint Mortality Rate '0 venn -
—---------------
1~
Miks 114 0 | 1016
144.0 1 1034
992 86.3 118.2 1028
Fcnuks 98.3 88.5 126.9 —J
87.3 68 1 1043
84.9
Child Mortalm Rate 1-4 vean -( V)
Maks 52 8 1 446 74.5 45 8
411 35 1
55 7 45.5
Fczaks 53.9 46 3 786 464 45.5 31.3 587 HIT ’
Expectation of life at birth f .ears
Males 514 1 53 6 ' 464
h-----------------
532 54.0
—
56.5 50.7
53.3
Femaks $4.0 J 56.1 1 484
560 563
606 52.8 56.8
C rode Death Rite s
1970
Li
1---------
------——
20.0
1984
184 194
—14 6 1 171
14 7
3.4.2 Proem Situation (In 1994)
Source of data the 1990 National Family and Fertility Survey (NFFS) is the only source ot recent data about mortality; but unfortunately, it gathered only data about childhood mo ty, and r.o data about adult mortality The only available information on childhood
k2.ly re aled 10 rural areas art presented in Table 1S It is clear that childhood mortality has been exper.encing a declining trend during the last 20 years.
Table 15 Neo-Natal, Infant and Child Mortality Rates, In Rural Areas (%•)
Ptnod
1975 -79
1980-84
1985 - 89
L^^90SalionalFamilr
TAMS-l^G
Neo-natal Infant
65.9 138.8
57 4 127.0
46.9 104 8
cnrcZ Fertility Survey - CSA, 1992
Barin Integrated Develop^
Child 93.5 83.0 n s.
_ ____ 1
«•»
3A-28
J
».A*SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION aspects
According to a recent survey conducted by the Ministry of Health m l99£ Mortality Rate (before the Ist birthday) and Child Mortality Rate (from 1 to 5 birthday) for the whole country (urban and rural together) would be respectively 10? %» and 52,? %o this means that 1 in every' 7 live births would die before his or her 5th birthday
Rerenl evolution
On a national level, in spite of the tendency to decrease, mortality is still high today , as shown in Table 16 Its decline has been slow reasons include the war lasting until 1991, long periods of droueht and serious famines within the 25 last years. Furthermore, analysts fear existing mortality decline may be partially compensated by a quick rise of seropositivity
Table 16 1984-1990 Evolution of National Mortality Indicators By Type Of
Residence
* . -n l- l j
Rural
Urban
Infant Mortality Rate (%o
1984
1990 (both sexes)
117.2
Ill 6
1026
94.2
Child Mortality Rate (%,)
1984
1990
54 9
57.4
Expectation af life at birth for both
sexes (years)
1984
1990
50 8
53 2
53 1
56.7
Crude Death Rate (%o)
1984
1990
17.2
>•
14.7
?
Sources 1984 The 1984 population and housing census of Ethiopia: analytical
report at national /evel - op. cit.
1990 Population and socio-economic data sheets 1991
in the Project Area, to which extent the 03 % (for the whole Project Area) missing pan of the natural increase proposed by CSA in 1984 would originate from net out-migration, and not from worse mortality conditions than expected, it is difficult to conclude But this explanation canr.oi be a prion left aside, so strong have been additional population pressures on the area:
from 1985 to 1991. about half a million Sudanese refugees (between 300.000 and 500,000, not counted in any of the 2 censuses) have been living in the Project Area not far from the border mainly in Gambela region. As a matter of fact this presence has created tensions especially on land, and involved a very serious environmental degradation.
The rcpon should be ail.ib!e by Mar^h 1996.
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
3A-29ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASftfj
SOCIO-ECONOMICS
c k t ono 000 resettled people onginating from Nonh Ethiopia settled in&
° ^ Ate£ S front 3
3.4.3 Health situation
affected by this movement
Health Profiles ond 5 year Health Plans issued for each re^ 4°or seems to experience far belter health condtttons than any other regton i. *
Project Area, as shown in Table 17
Table 17 General Health Coverage rates in 1992, In Rural Areas (%)
1
Asosa Gambela Dlubabor Keffa
Wellega
National
% health coverage (a)
87 60
66 60
% antenatal 65 17 coverage
19
18 1 1 _________ 1—---------
% deliveries assisted
family planning
— 13
6
' 5 2
71
1 6 ' 1
I------------------- -------
i2
(a) Peculation within 10 Ian.
Stwrce. 
Immunisation
(regional Regional health profiles and 5 year Health Plans. Ministry of Health. 1992 (national: National Population Policy of Ethiopia, op. oil.
Data relating to year 1992 explain specific sub-regional differences14 "The Expanded Programme of Immunisation (EPI), the establishment of which generated so much optimism, has suffered serious setbacks in the late 1980s and the early 1990s”13.
Immunisation Rates In 1992, In Rural Areas (%)
Asosa Gambela Uiubabor
Keffa
Wefiega
-------------—
National
< 1 year (BCG)
________
19 0
< I year (measles)
k------------- -
L
< 1 year (Dpt-3)
353
14.0
—
16.6 9 1
—------------ 12 0
1 < 1 year(Polio-3)
-------- — —£*2:——■
—i
10
< 1 year (fully 
immunised^
29 7
85
10.7
—
6.9
Women 15-49 (TT2)| -----—1
24.5 9.9 | 11.0
5.5 .
7.0 .
’’ On a national level (urban-rural). the percentage of 23 % was proposed for the year 1989 ( ) Source. >iat:arMl population policy of Ethiopia, op.ai
TA.MS-ULG Bum-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development viLter P)mSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A population aspects
The most recent dan refer to 1995 1* semester, they are presented by region bUl *ese regions are difficult to identify Nevertheless, it was possible to calculate an as wag weighted according to population numbers, this regional average does not differ much^from the national average But. these rates differ overwhelmingly from those on 1992. and it may be assumed that the major part of the progress would come from the end of the war Table 19 Immunisation Kates In 1995 (% of Concerned Population)
*/o immunised
BCG Measles DPT 3 Polio 3 TT2P
Project area National
526 59 0
32.6 35.0
400 41.0
402 40.0
29.1 190
StJE/rci.- unpublished dan, from Motbc and Child Health
Department, Ministry of Health
states of children
According to the 1992 National Rural Nutrition Survey. malnutrition is widely spread out all over the country: in rural areas. 8 % of children aged 6 to 59 months are '’wasting”, i.e. low weight for height16 which is sometimes referred to as an indicator of acute malnutrition; 64 % are "stunting”, i.e low height for agen which is sometimes considered as chronic, at last, 48 % are of ’underweight”, i.e low weight for age ’
Table 20 Nutrition among 6-59 Months Children in 1992, in Rural Areas (%)
I Type of malnutrition
Illubabor Keffa Wcllega
National
wasting facute)
9,1 7,3 10,8
8,0
stunting fcArawa 67.1
609 59,2
64,2
underweight
52.5
38.2 51,6 47.7
There are, to a certain extent, some regional differences: Wellcga and Illubabor suffer significantly more from malnutrition than Keffa
"Wasting is a reflection on the thinness of a child, which is independent of hiVher height Thinness tends to respond to more recent experiences (food intake and diseases) and, in contrast to height, a child can
from a bout of wasting once normal food intake and health status are re-established’
"Stunting is a reflection of the lifelong experience of a child, since defiats in height continue to accumulate during early childhood. with mosi deficits occurring in the first 2-3 years and little or no catch-up growth
thereafter"
lk
J
"
’Underweight is a summary reflection of (he degree of wasting and stunting tn a child, because thinness and height deficits will both result in the child weighting less than normal for his/her age. But its weakness resides in that it cannot distinguish between long-term and more recent experiences affecting the child"
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master PlanANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPEf^
SOCIO-ECON OMICS
3.4.4 AIDS
Source of data
The National Information System managed by the Epidemiology of AIDS Depart^
Ministry of Health, gives quarterly information about the spreading of the disease
cumulative analysis of all cases reported from the outbreak of the pandemic is nerf 1
Also, a national study has been carried out recently, but a copy was not available
Accordingly, the data presented hereafter relate to the whole country, and not to the Project
.Area
Statistical history
The history of Aids starts in 1986, the first surveys being conducted between 1984 and 1987. Globally, between January 1986 and April 1995, 18.042 cases were reported in 57 hospitals, from which 7,491 in Addis Ababa The number of "reported cases" increased from 2 in 1986 to 5,558 in 1994 (3,301 maies and 2,241 females) By year of reporting, the distribution of cases was
Table 21 AIDS Cases by Year of Report
Yearfs) of
Cases
Sex ratio
reporting
Numbers
%
(M*1—00/F)
1986 -89
294
16
242
1990
448
25
187
1991
886
4.9
195
1992
3 256
18 0
156
1993
5 124
28 4
165
1994
5 558
30.8
147
11995 (1* quarte r
) 2 476 13.7
Total
18 042
100.0
148
158
Sourer AIDS upda< - Epidemiology and Aids Department Minier „r
Health - AddisAb.be- 30 Apnl 1995 
M “nar> °f
This continuously mcreastng number shows how rapid is the spreading out of the disease
between December 1994 and Apnl 1995, 2,476 cases were reported from which 1 330 in
Addis Ababa The major increase in the number of cases, from vear 1992 may come
partially from demobilisation of troops in 1991, militaries accounting for 13 % f the cases in
that time
o
In the same time, the rate of increase is much higher in recent years for females than for males the continuously declining sex ratios show how Aids became year after year less unequally distributed among population. The age distribution of the reported cases in the country is:
TAMS-ULG Biro-Akobo River Basin Integrity Development MuterPh^
3A-32SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
Table 22 Reported AIDS Cases By Age Group
Cases
Ase group Numbers %
Sex ratio
(M’lWF)
0-4
5-14
15- 19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60 *
Total
299 1 7 42 0.2
965 53
7 846 43 5
5 683 31.5
2318 12.8
726 40
163 0.9 18 042 100,0
108
91
30
109
252
347
325
462
158
Source- Alex update > 30 Aprti 1995, op.ciL
The average age of the infected cases is 30.4 years
The sexually active group (15-49 years) accounts for 93 I %, when the elderly (60 years and over) and the youngsters (under 15) are still very few, respectively 0.9 and 1.9 %. But it is expected that the disease will spread out quickly within the younger group
The sex ratio shows that males axe much more infected than women (158 males for 100 females) But this not true under the age of 30 (96), the proportion is much higher alter 30: 281.
By region of residence, from the 18,042 cases, 1240 are Jiving m 5 regions which are (partially or totally) in the Project Area:
Table 23 Reported AIDS Cases in Regions Of The Project Area
Cases
Region
Asosa
Gambella
III abater
Kefib
Wcllcga
Numbers % 18,042 cases
20 0.1
24 0.1
229 13
42 0.2 925 5.2
Total 5 regions 1 240
7.9
Source: Aids update. 50 Apnl 1995. opxit
TAMS-ULG Barv-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Marler Pian
JA-33SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION
According to various studies, it is known that the western part of the country has bee
hitherto less affected, since it is out of the way of major roads However, the presence of 3
refugee camps in the area, accommodating more than 60,000 refugees and where
seropositivity is much higher than among any other population, increases the intensity of th.
risk
Specificity of refugee population: according to a recent study, carried out in 1992 in die
Bench Zone and confirmed
in 1994 ’,
1 on 3 categories of
population sex workers residing in
Mizan. Aman and Fandinka towns, refugee students and refugees who have been residing in the Dimma camp The prevalence rate among refugee men of the study area would be 5% (and 6% among men aged 20 or younger), 45% among commercial sex workers (40% jn Fandinka. 50 % in .Aman towns). 2 to 6% among antenatal clinic attendants (2% in Dimma and 6% in Mizan Teferi towns)
In 1994, 32% of general refugees and 19% of refugee students had had sex w'ith prostitutes in the last 3 months But, in that time, the use of condoms was still insufficient: 27% of the sex workers. 54% of the general refugees and 30% of the refugee students had never used a condom, only 37% of the sex workers declared they' were using a condom "always"
The major risk factor is heterosexual transmission (87 0 % of the cases), when maternal HTV/breast feeding accounts for 1.5 %, illegal injection for 1.0 %. and blood transfusion for 0 7 % in fact, for 9.7 % of the .AIDS cases the risk factor was unspecified, so the proportion of heterosexual transmission is probably higher than 90 %.
Of course, there axe classic at risk groups, such as female sex workers (in 1988, 5 3 % in Mem and 9 8 % in Jimma), travelling persons (drivers, merchants, etc)
The distribution of the cases by occupation was as follows, in April 1995 Table 24 Reported Aids Cases By Occupation
-x-a ibiiu
Age group
Numbers
% 18.042 cases
(M*100XZ---F--)------
(.ki veramajl empl o> ces
2432
13,5
387
Army
2 012
112
3 845
Merchants
1 522
84
445
House wives
1496
83
(ICWSfemAjei)
1 Dr.vers
1215
6.7
(lOOSmiJcsj
Sex workers
943
52
(100 % females f
Students
769
------ ±2 L
64
Source: update. 30 April 1995. op.ciL
9
’ William Brad) et jJ
. Baseline Survey Report HfV STD PROJECT - Kefla. Ethiopia, 1992
. Progress Report HtWSTD Control and prevention Project Bench Zone • Ethiopia. August 199}
Worfcneh Felckc et aJ Evaluation Report of HwSTD Control and Prevention - UXHCR/CDC ARA IfOff Joint Project Bench Zone of Southern Ethiopia Region - June 11-18 1994
TAMS-ULC Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Marler Plan “
“ socioeconomics
Prevalence HIV among adult popM/afio??
1993
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
2.6% (0.7 to 1.2% of total rural popular!o
(7 to 12% of total urban population
2004
5 0%
(conservative assumption)
after 2004
stabilisatio
n
Stabilisation is contemplated assuming the medium term AIDS Control Programme (which has been implemented in early 1988) is working satisfactorily
It is reconstructed (by simulation using a logistic function) the past and future evolution of AIDS prevalence rate in urban and rural areas
Table 25 1984-2004 Evolution of HTV Prevalence (% of Adult Population)
Rural Urban Total
1984
1986
im
1990
1992
1994
[996
1W1S
2000
2002
2004
2005
0.00 0 01
0.01 0.06
0.05 0.03
Oil
3.51
0.64. 60S 1.26 13.95 1.63 18 49 1.76 H.7D 1.79 19.94 1.80 19 99 1, 80 20.00 1 80 20-00
001
D 03
0.11
0 49
1 67
3.50
458
4.90
495
5.00
50C
5 00
Source i AMS-Ul J nuiare
TAMS-L’LG Baro-Akoto River Basin btegraretl De^op^t Master Plan
3A-35SOCIO-ECONOMICS
AXNEX 3A
Evolution of AIDS icroprevalencc
(% of id till popubtion)
• - - Riuu_ra_—-Viinww
Consequences (on a national level):
~ severTamonc involve a 5(f % iJreJ1 S
'T”* morTa,ity at a,J a««. but the impact will be ax 15 "49) and ch‘,dren under the age of 5 AIDS on
continuous decline for all Muses'of7^ °[ ^
by 2°°9 BeCHUSe
?
fOr ""^rn'KC'3tim °r lift “ “
follows in 2009, 2 6 ^ner^'^ °
!
On ■^DS' 'ts comPonents may evolve «
much lower 2. ] % per annum*11110'71 Wl,hout AlDS But Wltb AlDS- the rate would 1» 3.4.5 Future evolution
The CSA proposed in 1984 a cont every 5 years during 15 years 
years Of course, these assumptions 
In<lreas< in the expectation of life at birth of1/* vest Vear every 5 years during the 15 following
because its effects were not clearlv v ° 001 take int0 account the possible efFects of AC*
■ taown1* «•= when the fmK„, was made
Table 26
CSA Assumptions About Expectation Of Life At Birth (Years)
11 Ulubibor
Year
II m
_ F
54.2
55.2
570
59 2
! National
1984
J985- ’990
•I 515
i
‘I 52 6
1995 - 2000
>1 543
i
2005-20 JO
Li
'I 566
i
2015-2026
61 7
54. J
55.2
56 9
59 2
609
53 !
542
55 9
57 2
59.7
—j
i
i
I
I
TAiMS-L’LG Biro-AAotx) River
—-
Integrated Dcvetopment Master P)iSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
The National Population Policy or Ethiopia proposed specific objectives tor mortality 
■'reducing maternal, infant and child morbidity and mortality rates as well as promoting the levci of general welfare of the population" But no quantitative target was put lorward
Our assumptions arc the following, taking account of the general theory ot mortality 
transition, the willingness of the Public Authorities to cope with population aspects of
development in a way to reduce drastically mortality mother and child mortality thanks to specific programmes (such as EPI. etc ), and also adult mortality thanks to programmes tor
.AIDS control This aspect of mortality will prevent the area from obtaining good results,
especially in urban areas
Expectation of life at birth will evolve slowly in rhe next few years, and then the movement will become stronger and quicker as soon as time is going, in rural as well as in urban, areas, by 0,25 years every 5 years until year 2000. then by 0,50 years every 5 years from 2000 to 2020, and by LOO year every 5 years thereafter
Table 27 TAMS-ULG assumptions about expectation of life at birth for the Project
Area (years)
Year Rural
Urban
Mak Frmide M«k Fenude
1984
199* ’20(Kl
2005-2010
2015-2020
2025-2030
51.6 54.8
52.4 55 6
$3.4 56.5
54,4 57.5
56 4 59.6
>18 58.0
55 6 58.8
565 59.7
57.5 60.7
59 6 62 8
The Crude Death Rate (Cdr), i c the number of deaths compared with the total population, will evolve differently in rural areas than in towns:
in rural areas, the decline will be continuous from 17 5%o in 1985-90 to 10.7%, 50 years later,
in towns, contrary to what was expected, CDR will increase strongly ail over the next 50 years: from IS 7%a in 1985-90 to I 7,79t» in 2030-2035. The maximum value will be reached in 2000-2005 with 21 6%*, afterwards, it will decline
Aids is the major cause of this strange evolution, which does not seem io be "classic" The number of deaths caused by Aids will increase very overwhelmingly: from 715 per year during the 1995-2000 period to more than 12.300 per year in the 2030-35 period. These deaths are now accounting for 2% of the total number of deaths; but, in 2030-35 the percentage may be as high as 20%, with major differentials by type of residence
in rural areas, the number of deaths due to Aids will increase from 0 now to more than 4000 per year in the 2030-35 penod. which means that 8 5% of the total number of deaths would result from .AIDS;
TAMS-ULG Baro-Alcobo River Basin Integrated Devdopment Master Plan
3A -37SOCIO-ECONOMICS
.annex 3a population ASPEc|s
C in urban areas, the situation will become dramatic (if no cure is discovered jn years) the percentage of deaths caused by Aids will increase from 715 pe
1995-2000 to 8,300 in 2030-35, i e. respectively 22% and 64% of the total nu 1,1 deaths’ And the percentage of deaths due to ADS will be over 50% onlv a
after 2000
3.5 Migration
3.5. J Past Migration Patterns
Migration in the Project .Area have been very specific over the past 10 years the Project .Area has "welcome", about year 1985 (i.e hardly a year after the census), more than :/j million people in the same year, i.e an increase of 35%:
C about 200.000 people "resettled" from North Ethiopia, who were projected to settle on better lands far from drought affected areas;
l about 400.000 refugees came from Sudan and stayed in the Project .Area for several years
It is known that the bulk of them left their resettlement area, or died because of diseases they were not used to It is also known that most refugees left the area or were repatriated to Sudan in 1991. This is the reason why most migration patterns presented above can hardly be used
The major problem about the migratory increase of population is that this phenomenon originated, mainly, from one off events which will probably not happen again (in principle):
E first of all, the available data (relating to years 1984 and 1993) only give a residual image of events, since the 2 surges occurred and mostly disappeared within the intercensal period,
□ the "resettlement programme" was a failure,
E as for the refugees, their number went suddenly up to 400,000 in 1985, and remain^ so until 1991 Then, in a few months, most refugees were repatriated, and the remaining number fell dowm to 20.000 in late 1991 From this year, the number increased slowly but continuously, and in January 1996 the number is close to 61 500
But the phenomenon has not been measured accurately,
although fragmented data exist for Ethiopia wide movement
especially regarding refugees;
TA.WS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Bavin Integrated Development Majter p|ailsocio-economics
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
Table 28 Migration Rates. By Type Of Migrant And Type Of Migration, In 1981-82 (No)
r—
Local
movers
Intra-rr^ionjU migrant* >■ 1
Inter-rr^innaJ misranu (“)
Ape
Mi -04
05-14
Rural Urban
Urban to Rural
Rural io Rural Rural to Urban Urban la Rural
MFMF
MF
MF
MFMF
8.3 94 07 08 U7 10
11-4 12 4
15-24 25 2 34.7
25-34 10 4 10 2
35-49 33 6-0
50*
Mot rated
3.5 83
27.2 303
0.9 13 20 2 8
3 3 3.2 5.3 4.6
1.7 1 2 L9 26
07 05 0.8 17
0.5 07 0 9 L9
5.4 3.9 5.4 9.5
0.7 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 2
0.5 06 0.2 03 0.1 0.1
13 1.9 12 0.3 0.5 0.6
0.7 08 0.9 0 I 0.4 0.1
0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 04
02 0,5 02 CM 0.2 0.1
22 12
3.3 0.4
Total
[0.7 13,5 U 13 1.8 2,4 0.6 0.8 0.4 02 0.2 02
(*) within the region,
towards a different region
The most complete data relate io years 1981-82 (survey about migration conducted by CSA, during a full year) Here above are the national averages, which seem io be less affected by [he "not stated'1 ages (very numerous in some regions), than rhe regional distributions The indicator is a rale, per 1.000 persons "of the mid-year population"
"movers" ■ change of residence within the boundaries of the same administrative unit
(wereda).
"migrants" change of residence outside the boundaries of the same administrative unit (wereda), plus absence from residence for more than 6 months, plus intention of not returning.
The latest data about migrations, result from the 198-1 population census (the Analytical report at national level published in December 1991). The age distributions of migrants arc the following
Table 29 Age Structure Of Migrants By Type Of Migration .And Region, In 1984
{Papulation lumbers)
Age
Ulubabor Kfffil
Weliega
National
Oul-Mzzr. In-Mi et Out-NUgr,
iD’Migr. Oul-Migr
In-Mi sr. Out-Mi pr.
DC -09
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50*(ind NS
■
Total
4 276 2 379 7 530 3 486 12 002 4 464 13040 5 920 9215 4 821
, 18 109 9 759 M 172 30 829
4 833 3 880 7312 4 337
U 833 "446 1713 8315
[3 719 7 805 15 068 10 885
22 824 7 469 15 304 10 337
15 901 5 085 9793 7283
20092 12 431 14 960 16 016
W 207 44 116 74 150 57 213
112 476 112 476
311 421 311421
347 716 347716
383 914 3 S3 914
225 853 225 853
361 295 361 295
1 742 675 1 742 675
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Batin Integrated Development Harter Plan
3A-39SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A population aspect
After .nalvsis of the above data it is difficult to conclude in favour of one of them ft, . aspects of migration have been considered:
- the total number of migrants in each 5 year penod: m order to evaluate their
during the 1984-1993 penod. we earned out a population forecast from 1984 to
without miltration Accordingly, it was possible to calculate net migration flows in
areas
0 1985-90 was a period of net in-migration, due to the cumulated effect of the arm/ of refugees and resettled people During these 5 years, 23,000 net in-migrants settled in the Project Area, resulting from the difference between an in-migration flow of 198,000 "resettled people" and two out-migration flows. 115,000 "returnees’ i.e resettlers who returned home, and a "normal out-migration flow’ (i e rural-urban migration) which has been estimated to 60,000
0 1990-95 was a period of net out-migration 94,000 net out-migrants, corresponding to the "normal out-migration flow" (60,000) plus 34,000 "returnees"
□ an age and sex distribution of migrants, taken from a classic model (People software!
Age A. sex distribution of migrants
(%)
□ Females ■ Males
J. 5.2 Future migration pattern
CSA staled in 1984 that "migration stream from and to the region, Le net inter-regional migration is assumed to be insignificant and not likely to affect population size and its structure in the future drastically" Therefore. CSA did not take into account this aspect of population growth
Our assumptions, about the past evolution as well as about the future differ verv much not only because of recent events which affected the Project Aiea over the last 10 years but also because it is obvious that the region is affected by rural-urban migration
About the future, it is assumed that the Project Area will be affected by a classic continuous and strong out-migration flow towards towns, partly in the area, and partly outside the Project
.Area It is also assumed that (he overall sex ratio of migrants would be no
ma es
females
] for 100
TA.MS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Baiin Integrated Development Muter p|anSO CIO-EC O N O M ICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
Table 30 TaMS-ULG Assumptions About Yearly Migration Flows Within The Project
Area
Year Rural1 arras
Net Dui-migninCs % [U? L1CTCa5C
Urban
Net ubinjEranL5 ?-□ rural flct-nuzr
1995 - 2iJC0
2000 - 2t»5
2CO5 - 20 !0
2010-2015
2015-2020
1020 2025
2025-2030
20Ju -201?
- 17 000 23.8
-20 000 29 0
- 24 00(1
30.4
-26 000 29.5
*2600 15 3 + 3 377 16.9 + 4 392 18.3 + 5 713 21.0
- 29 000
30.5
-32 000 31 -
+ 7 426
* 9 653
25 6
30.2
-35 000
- 3S 00$
32.1
325
+ 11 J01 31 7
+ 32 757
33.6
Lj rural areas will lose every year, on average, about 30% of their natural increase over the next 40 years This means that, for example, over the 1995-2000 period, the yearly net migratory balance will be 17.000 out-migrants from rural areas, i e. 85,000 persons in 5 years (30% of the corresponding natural increase), and over the 2030-2035 period, the number of net out-migrants will be 38,000, i c. 190,000 in 5 years (33% of the natural increase).
Z1 urban areas will be affected by 2 migratory movements: one consisting of rural-urban in-migration flows, and the other of urban-urban out-migration flows (considering the towns in the Project Area as departure zones for migration towards bigger towns) The net migratory balance will be continuously positive, and will correspond to an increasing share of the out-migration flow from rural areas: from 15% in 1995-2000 to 34% in 2030-2035, the bigger towms in the Project .Area being more and more attractive (because of their size, public amenities, etc ) for local rural-urban migrants
JTe net migration rate will have an increasing importance over the next 40 years, especially in urban areas
J in rural areas, the rate will be continuously negative because of net out-migration. It will vary from -0.8 % per year in the 1995-2000 period, to -0.9% in the 2030-2035 period In fact, in rural areas, the migratory rates as well as the rates of natural increase will be remarkably stable,
— in urban areas, the rate will be continuously positive, because of net in-migration It will increase from *1.3% in the next 5 years (against 2.9% for natural increase), to + 1.7% in 2030-2035 (against 13% for natural increase). So, while natural increase rates will be experiencing a rapid decline (divided by 2 2 in 40 years), migration rates ^'ill be multiplied by 1.3 over the same period of time
TAMS-ULG Biro-Akobu River Basin Integrated Development Master PlanSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION'
4. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
4.1 Population Size
4.1.1 Globally
The population of the Project Area, which is estimated to be 2.2 million people in 1995,^ increase to 5.3 million in 2035 The detailed numbers by type of residence, wereda, zone nd region, for years 1984 ,1993 ,1995,2000, 2015 and 2035, are presented in Appendix I Tables 3 (rural areas), 4 (urban areas) and 5 (total).
This increase corresponds to an average growth rate of 2.2% per year, i.e. 2 05% in nin areas and 4.03% in urban areas One of the major consequences of this population change will be the threefold increase in the population densities, which will be 70 people per Icn? globally, and 60 in rural areas, in 2035, as detailed in Table 31.
Table 31 Growth of Population and densities, 1985 - 2035
1----- 1
---------------------------------------------------------
Population numbers
Density (pers./kmJ
Year Rural
Urban Total
Rural Total
"ir~----------- ) L'rban Irate (%)
1 985
1 990 1995 1
1 630 000 107 800
1 868 000 143 700
2 029 000 182 500
1 737 800
2 011 700
2 211 500
21.5
| 24.6
26.7
229 62
26.5
1 71
29.1 Il 8-4
2 000 2 236 000 225 000 2 005 ' 2 479 000 270 500 2010 2 753 000 324 000 2 015 3061 000 389 300
| 2 020 | 3 393 000 469 000
2 025 3 737 000 564 400
| 2 030 4 107 000 668 900
2 035 j 4 501 000 778 600
2 461 000
2 749 500 | 3 077 000
3 450 300
3 862 000
4 301 400
4 775 900
5 279 600
-------------
29.5 32.4
32.7 36.2
36.3 40 5
40.3 45.5
44 7 50 9 |
49.2
56 7 1
54 1 62.9 1 59.3 | 69.5
11 1 91
9.8 1
10.5
11.3
12 I 1
13.1 I
14.0
14.7 J
TheTefogee population in the Project Area is not included in the above mentioned numbers, because this phenomenon is projected to d>sappear. with the repatriation of the refugees.
Ufnthe next few years In the event that they are not repatriated, the problem would be 45 Allows assuming that the probable number of refugees remains constant at 100,000 people
° r Globally the consequences of this presence within the Project Area would not be important 4 5% in 1995 and 1.9% in 2035,
scale the consequences might be very senous: in Gambela region, where the
damps are lutxnw. «_________________________________________________________ ______ .________ _
--------- - ---------RhTr Basin Lmep-.ted DeveJopmen. Maner Pt.n
3A-42
□ onalocalscaJe thecon eq^
considered as the most hospitable area forSOCIO-ECONOMJCS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
refueees. 100,000 refugees
would
constitute
54%
of Lhe 1995 population, estimated to
be 186.590, and 8.1% of
the pop
ulation in
2035,
projected to be 1.24 million Without
immediate appropriate m
easures 
(about
land
allocation, environment protection,
employment etc ), such a
burden
might in
volve
destruction of available arable lands 
and remaining forest over a period of only a few years (as has happened over the last 10 years).
r If this were to be a reality, our population forecast would be affected, since Gambela Region would be turned into an out-migration area for example, if Gambela were to experience a growth rate over the next 40 years equivalent to the natural increase, its population would be in 2035 close to 550,000 people, less than half of our forecast
4.1.2 Densifies in 2035
Densities per wereda in the 3 projection years, i e 2000, 2015 and 2035. are presented in Volume IV Map .Album for total densities (pages 8,9.10), as for rural densities (pages 
11.12,13)
Rural densities will vary, on average, from one zone to another
i~ the lowest densities will be in Mocha and Mail zone, with respectively 8 and 11 people per knr;
□ relatively low densities will be located as well in the Upper Basin, mainly in its western fringe from north to south Asosa zone (51 people per km5), Eastern Wellega i.e Arjo zone (45), Gore zone (67), Bench - Gimira zone (36), as in Gambela Region in the Lower Basin (46),
n higher densities will he located in the central eastern part of the Upper Basin and around Tepi: Illubabor zone (153 people per km:), Buno Bedele zone (139), Shekicho zone (134)
Total densities, which take account of populations living in towns, will not be very different, lhe only major difference relating to Shekicho zone, whose density will be 183.
But, in 2035, many zones will have a density larger than 100 people per km2: Kelem (101), Gimbi (113), Illubabor (172), Buno Bedele (150), Shekicho (183). And only 2 will have a density less than 40: Maji and Mocha with respectively 13 and 9,
Implications for development and “Population Support Capacity" of the land in the Project Area
It is often considered that a density of 30 to 40 people per km1 is a threshold: beyond this im iL systems of agricultural production would be unable to be efficient because of poor
renewal of soils fertility
? n fact, before concluding about to which extent these densities are reasonable or not, it is 1 trips rt ant to analyse the relevance of the concept of density
L there is a problem of definition: the above mentioned densities are crude densities The total area of each wereda is taken into account, whatever the use is; but, of course, only a part of these km- are used and/or able to be used for agricultural production Gambela region, a large percentage of which is liable to flooding, is a good example: the crude
TaMS-ULG Biru-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
3A-43ANNEX 3A POPULATION asp^
2
SOCIO-ECONOMICS
densities are low. but it is probable that the "nef densities (considering the km ) would be much higher
r areas to be taker into account vats- over penods of rime: for example, the
- , «rimllure in the Lower Basin have probably decreased between 19S< ?[ W ‘^u « of the sudden settlement of relugees and resettled households. The^ ™-optional- density should consider changes tn the used/usable areas 
n aaricultural efficiency areas may vary over years according to the attention pi!< ' their production capacity the yields may increase or decrease in relation wnh
eeffffoorrtts s mmaaddee ttoo iimmpprrooveve tthhee si sittuuaattiioonn
Z One should refer to the Population Support Capacity model section in Volume n for further application of those concepts
4.1.3 Regional Evolution
Table 32 Population Numbers By "1993 Region" In 2035
Region
5* Sine
1995
2 035 Growth rate
11
PopuiaUor %
Population %
1 f%rervear) 1
4 Oromia
6 .Asosa
11 Southern
I 32! 020 59.8 2 521 205 47.8 1 243 690 110 459434 8.7 1 60
460 203 20.8 1 062 401 20 1
2.11
12 Gambela
186 590 84
1 236 560 23 4
4.84
1
«. ___
Total
2211503 100 0 5 279 599 100.0 Z20 J
Li Regions very much affected by out-migration, such as Oromia and Asosa, will ha\e a growth rate much lower than natural increase. Their importance in the Project Area wil decline from 71% to 56% Southern region will be less affected by out-migration; its growth rate will not so far from natural increase, and its importance in the Project Area will remain nearly the same (from 20.8 to 20 1%);
□ Gambela region will experience a growth rate very different from the others, because of net in-migration In 2035, Gambela’s population will be bigger than Southern's; its importance in the area wrll increase from 8.4% to 23 4% But in spite of this verv big growth rate the densities m the region will not reach very high figures, unless the areas of land available for food production decreases drastically
4.2 Rural / Urban Population
As noted above. rhe number of people living in city dwellers in the Project Area will be multiplied by 7, out even so. this number will remain relatively low 780 O(i
in 203* The urban rate will be multiplied by 2. but it will hardly reach 15% in 2035
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Biuin Integrated Development Master P|lnSIKIO-ECONDMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
Table 33 1985 - 2035 Evolution Of Urban Population hi The Project Area
Town 1995 2000 2015 2035 * Big towns
Gambela
Tepi
Asosa
Mizan Teferi
Mem
Dem bide to
Gore
Mugi
17,926 9,869
10.894 10,196
19,084
19.583
7,958
4.716
25,840
13.140
13,867
12,911
21,974
22.267
8.375
4,878
223,252
62,325
30.159
151,013
81.632
28153 65,775
Total big towns 100.226
25,875 31,832 31,369 10,031
5,529
225.273
59.530 46,676 44,661 12.687
6,296
468,270
• Smaller towns 82,274 101,748 164,027 310,330
Total Urban
182,500
225. non 389300 778,600
The apparent sluggish increase in the urban population does not come onjy from the negative effects of out-migration, but also from the very' bad conditions of mortality (particularly of
Aids) which explain the very low level of natural increase.
Only one "big town", Gambela, is projected to have in 2035 a population bigger than 100,000 inhabitants Tepi’s population will be 80,000, Asosa's 65,000, 3 other cities will have a population close to 50,000. Kiizan Teferi, Dembidolo and Metu
Age and sex Structure
The various demographic indicators - population numbers, fertility, mortality, migration rates, age and sex distributions, assumptions and results - all over the projection period, i.e from 1985 to 2035, are presented in Appendix I, Tables 6 (rural areas) and 7 (urban areas)
The age and sex structure will not change thoroughly despite expected fertility transition and ncw mortality conditions. In 2035, the population will still be very young (even if the median
e Kc will raise from 17 to 21 years in rural areas and to 18 in urban areas), and the proportion old people will be smaller than roday 
. fact, there are 2 ways of analysing the age and sex structures, one considering the numbers order to better understand the importance of growth in numbers (i.e. the results of the
ct >ange), and the other one considering the demographic dynamics whatever the population ze in order to identify the roots of evolution.
TA.M5-ULG Baro-Akobo River Biiiin Integrated Development Master Plan
3A-45SOCIO-ECONOMICS
4.3.1 Numbers
annex 3A population aspects
In rural areas, in 2035. 1.962,000 people will be under 15 against 772 000 '
2.5 times more), and the people over 65 years of age will be only 1 )2 000 ae (that ;s 1985 (that is nearly the same number as 50 years later). The number? l09,3o°i reproductive age (15-49 years) will be 1.049.000 against 315,000 j e 3 f Uornen in
explains why natality will experience a slower decline than fertility 
,rnes fn°re- ibis
In urban areas, in 2035. 286.332 people will be under 15 against 49,403 in 1985 (tha ‘ times more), and the people over 65 years of age will be only 17,103 against 5,485 in^lQRs (that is 3 times more) The number of women in reproductive age (15-49 years) will k! 207.280 against 23,008. i e 9 times more, this explains why natality will decline so slowlv ’ spite of a fairly rapid decline in fertility 
’In
RURAL
TAMS-LLG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
3A-46SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
URBAN
/J.2 Percent Distribution
Comparing the various percent distributions (the basis of each pyramid, whatever the corresponding population size, being equal to the same total of 100%) gives the opportunity of better understand ing
Z1 differences between rural and urban areas al the same date, and differences in their
evolution;
□ evolution of the internal structure of the same population (say rural areas, or towns),
i e how it becomes older over years.
In rural areas. 44% of the population will be under 15 years against 47% in 1985, and the people over 65 years of age will be only 2 5% against 6 7% in 1985 Women aged 15-49 years will account for 46.3% of the female population in 2035, against 38.8% in 1985: this modification of the age structure of female population affects natality negatively.
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Batin Integrated Development Master PlanoeoDle oviTs’’ /0 °J 'he P°Pulat'On will be under 15 years against 46% in 1985, and the S JllT yC? 386 Ul)1 bc on'v 2 2% against 5.1% in 1985 Women aged 15-49
modification^* 546% °f fen,ale P°Pulation in 2035> againSt 41 4% “ 1985
modification of the age structure of female population affects natality negatively
w
u f 3 dec,inin8 Percentage of both rural and urban elderly population
2035 it Jfi or? 3S f° 0WS al,hou8t’ the elderlv population will grow in the period up to
t”herefor7> 8 ' 3
therefore, it appears to decline.
r “e 11,311 that of the population as a whole.
Fh
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Bum Integrated
3A-48
In percentage terms,
Waiter PlanSOCIO-economics
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
The dependency ratio, i.e the number of people in non economically active age groups per persons in economically active age groups, as a consequence of this evolution i.e population ageing, will decrease drastically: from 1.03 in 1985 to 0 81 in 2035 in rural areas, and from 0,9 to 0.6 in urban areas
The sei ratio, between 1985 and 2035, will result from the influence of migrations 
L in rural areas, affected by out-migration, it will decrease from 101 to 99;
L in urban areas affected by in-migration, the contrary will happen it will increase from
94 to 105
4,4 Population of School Age
The number of children in school age at the various target years are presented below For this, the school age population are grouped into 4 groups, viz elementary' f 5-6 years), primary (7- 12 years), junior secondary' (13-14 years) and senior secondary (15-18 years), this conforms with the classification used in Ethiopia
Tabic 34 a 1985 - 2035 Evolution Of Project Area’s Number Of School Age Population, By Type Of Resident
Year
----
L985 199*5 2M0 2015 2035
* RURAL artHs
Kmcsraaneni' 5-6
>ears)
Miles
66 000 63 000 69 000 100000 !34 tOO
Females 59DQO 63 DOC 68 000 95IOOO 132 000
Foul
125 000 125 C00 137 000 199 D00 266 000
Priuur- f7-12 Years)
Males 151 000 ‘76 DOO 183 000 267000 372 OOO Females 133 000 175 000 187 0CC 265GOO 369 000
1’oTj] 235 000 35] 000 375 000 532 000 741 000
Juwcr Secondary (13’[4 years)
Males.
Fannies
Total
32 000 57 OOP 58 000 78 000 114 000
23 pM 55 000 58 CC0 77 300 114 000
to™ 112 000 116000 155000 228 000
Senior Secondary (
Males
Females
Tula]
5-iE years)
52 DOC 117 OOD 106 000 1j<0UU 210000 42 000 103 000 106 000 134 000 209 000 94 000 22! fflM 2.13 000 268 000 420 000
— Total piipulatinn I 639 000 2 029 000 2 23*000 3 061 OOO 4 501 1)00
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master PlanSOCIO-ECONOMICS
Year
1985 1995 2000 2015 2035
. I on »\ 9 ms 
__________________
11
—------------------------------------ ----------------------------------------------------
Kindcsancx 5-6 yecs)
Steles Females
"7
3 578 6134 7812 11 486 19842
5 503 6062 7712 11 320 19 494
Total 6 881 12 196 15 524 22 806 39 335 PrurjD (7-12 sears)
Males Fenuues Toui
9497 13 385 19 366 30 837 55 925
9 956 13 220 19173 30 486 55 183
19453 26 605 38 539 61 323 111 108
Junior S«ondan (13-4 ye 1 ars)
Maks Females
2 852 3 395 5 026 9 565 17 679
2 918 3 390 4 963 9 495 17 426
Tool 5 770 6 785 9 989 19010 35 105 Sana Sacmdan (15-18 yean)
1
Males Females Total
SOM 7 341 8 094 19 084 35 312
4 856 7 515 7 840 18 641 34 338
9 903 14 856 15 934 38 781 69 650
Total j)opulihi»o
107827 182 503 225 019 389 309 778 599 |
“^responding total DODulatin c category, one is able to derive percentages of the 'VP' of residence and to a PCrcenlaSes (relating to a specific year, to a specific Leda's poDuiatinn ;n _’.c categ°r>’ of child) may be applied to any corresponding wereda's I •
P°. on in order to estimate the theoretical needs for school equipment
3A - 50SOClO-ECONOMrGS
NEED FOR FURTHER STUDIES
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
\ s noted several times in this report, the knowledge of population structure and dynamics was fairly Pocr particularly on a local basis, mainly because the 1994 census data were not released Before carrying out any additional study, ft is important to awe.w this work, and to test the assumptions about the past evolution as well as about the future For this, much information is required, mainly to give someone the possibility of confirming or reorienting our analvsis
Let us keep in mind that, before trying to think of the future, [he most important is to understand the past evolution the population dynamics as a whole, and also its components in order to identify' the part of it which is predictive of future - in other words, to separate the [ong trend from potential disruptive factors
The following is required to develop further work on population in the Project Area
“ Ail results of the 1994 census relating to the 4 Regions concerned by the Project Area, in order io check the population numbers by wereda (cartographic numbers must be considered as rough estimates, with possible major local discrepancies), but also the structure of the population (sex ratios, education and economic characteristics) and the components of the natural increase (fertility and mortality, as well as migration)
~ Additional information about refugees and resettled people, in order to be able to separate in each teredo the components of the growth rate. i.e. natural increase and migration (composed, in fact, of 2 flows, the classic rural to urban out-migration movement, and the artificial surge of refugees and resettled people towards the weredas)
2 Part of the information is probably existing somewhere in the Project Area, either in regional offices (governmental administration offices or UNHCR) or in local offices (wereda offices, local authorities, local people)
.. .Additional information about present land use and its past evolution (1984 - 1995) in
the Project Area, in order to be able to carry out a consistent density analysis: to which extent land, soil and forest degradation was due to an objective situation (for example: human or animal over-population, or both), and/or to the behaviour of new comers (refugees and resettled people) taking less into consideration the future of the region
than the indigenous people.
Specific information about morbidity and mortality in the Project Area, to be able to propose a more accurate scheme for mortality transition in the area. This would include an analysis on a local level (aL least zonal level) of:
9 the health activities, particularly EPI and other MCH programmes and results;
9 HIV seroprevalence and Aids in the Project Area, in order to estimate to which extent the national standards can be applied to the area.
~ additional information about fertility and its determinants in the Project Area, to be able to propose a mote accurate scheme for fertility transition in the area This would include an analysis on a local level (at least zonal level) of:
9 ethnic and geographic differentials in fertility,
9 family planning activities, particularly oriented on contraception (knowledge and practice), but also on girls school attendance ("the best contraceptive is girl schooling")
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Devdopnient Mailer Plan
3A-51SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3A POPPI a
3 additional information abou " towards Urban Devclopmen. i
development will be
the Project Area but also m h located outside Project
, lhe (
na urban p0 es
tional and regional) Government’s strategy ,
which
SXn * «•“* acV
proposed. not only fOr o f Ethiopia (since many major towns are
enQUgh t0 have a majOr influence Qn
is shoUld be undertaken in relation with the
3A-52^d-economics
ANNEX 3A POPULATION ASPECTS
APPENDIX 1 - STATISTICAL TABLES
"*AMS-ULG Baro-Ako|io Rher BaHD Integrated Devdopmcni Marter Plan
3A-53!’•••
llartwAkobo Utvw HmIr kMu »i d 
Vc
Mmmt I1»u lM>cl
XA V •»* '» *' * I<jHHW IW J DIMA1<Aq Rtva Rmm 1bIcv*IU l>e^p«Mat M*kr Mm Ihojctt
C.
t
|Va«F 4 f \
Area m
bjuui
9
(*m )
/ M 1/ H A l«
I Actuated Fai/ Sex Raho
U It D
AN
7 0 1 A I.
Home- PecsoruJ Yer. J i Sex Ratio \ (Total) IbSold UM*IOOT)|
r*>uL nvmn \
I lOUM• I’CfMMU
9n Ratio Urban
/ H/bofefe
Pcnom IIKoM
1
IptivVm )
Total Mural
\
(M’lOO/F)
hold.
(Total)
Yxn >
IVhold
(M*IOQ4)
rater* .)
13 KImJii
4 . Andcrarha
$ Y«ki
SA ShtlOcha
Kefirho (Kefi)
6 • G«rtha I ilku
7 . <i awaiA
x . Gesha Tini.hu
9 . Liberia
n . Gmibo
1 Shewa (Hmara St
Bench (Gbnlra)
□ Clara Far da 13 Sheco
54 Tcitxnja Yndii
SA Mtnch
Mnji
55 Itao
’<■ Kent
I 1 (le*ha
38 Gold it
59 . Sliaslia
60 . Tirmat»*i (•) 61 Mahal Maji
SA Moji
Total Region 11
100 0 IOOO 100 0
•
851
515
2 1(79
4 504 21 721 4 X 94.3 2 895 iJ 705 4 7 91.2
16 050 65 343 4 1 99 9
23 449 199 771 4.3 99.4
1 186 5 238 44 219 979 4 5
2 471 9 466 3 K 1876 15 693 4 9
IB 521
27J25
26 959
14 614
74 411
114 454
Mil 9.1
744 296
00 81 4
721
17
795
287
0
1 016
2 907
10 159 4) 531 4 2 98 4 804 1 624 4 5 101 7
5 65) 24 992 4 4 100.1 4 800 22 714 4.7 98 8
0 O 4 6 96 a 14 746 58 053 39 94 0
3* 3*1
IS2 915 4.4
97 9
229 980 4 3 00
374 1 576 42 215 B83 4 1
00
583 2 705 46
/ 491 6 144 4.4
10 5MB
15 329
J7 762
44 111
1 624
26 56B
23 597
0
60 760
159 059
100 0
100 0
98.3
•
5 873
501
1 Id
7479
3 656 12 W2 3 4 106 2
4 187 17 983 4.1 101 3
25 829 HOOKO 4 3
33 972 140 3*3 4 1
96 7
99 /
19 71 3 7
260 1 02) 3.9
1 992 9 779 4 9
2 271 10 973 4.9
27 an
16 142
>2 371
19 006
19 >59
lit 2J1
93 0 OO
89 a 13.9 367 43 0
4.5
-
•
*17?
18 668
3 2*2
91 9*4
6 I (Ml 2 474
2)14 6 072
391
2! IS*
2 147 7 810 3.6 151.2
0
0
900 4 116 4 6 102 0
529 2 474 4.7 100.7
117 2 982 3.7 1048
1 709 6 975 4.1 964
10)
391 ].■ 94 9
* 29$ 24 747 49
It J.*
9*6
33
00
2.6
16 3
5.9
53
1.8
4.1
24.1
415 201
>07 435
45! 498 4.2R**>
, Fui. nKWsirv
(pCt*
- slid
Zone
Wendt
R If R
AI
1
% area <\ltA III tn baun
basin (km 1
Pernor*
Tdll
iM’
AdMted
IL’holdt Pcracut
Kegion 12
Gambela
bl Ciambda
bJ Itang
,44 . lAawo
«5 Akobo (•)
U Gog A Jor
67 AImUmi
19 tknlrrc
100.0 3 187 100 0 1 769
100 0 2 205 100 0 3 742 1000 9 593 100.0 3 196 1000 1 971
26 662
-
16 062
1 951 II 912 2 662 19 504
5 504 42 136 5 307 21658
2 678 14 134
3 231 14 602
7388 23 617
28 926 /<4 45J 1192* 1566SJ
102 2
JJ8. <.’-m6r/a Total Regina 12
26 UJ
26 123
175046
J 0«6
5 594
5 460
3 028
3 493
■ 314
U 636
34 6M
459 141
1*2 776
2 169 656
107.1
109.6
107.7
99
93
97
114.2
705 /
105.1
4.7
97.9
2B.6
75 812
1914 Mrjto«2
'iMito
| Kalla
Uclkp
4.6 98 2
179 057
755J5
16?227
W7627
20 411
J14 417 4 595
432 347
I W1I0
16 130
41 343
“ 91 5 662
335 044
918 930
2 169 656
42.2
15 4
4.2
98.6
5.1 97.0
4.7
97.9
22 0 19.9
20 2 19 0
51.7 48 0
29 6 26.3
UliAalMt 42 9 41 5
KdTa 11 1 151
Wdlcp 391 417
541 21.1
23 4 180.0
43.4
174
Total
100.0 1001
m 1894 population ixmui (unpabUhcd catlography cituuaici)
39.1 42 4
100.0 100.0
<’)
Mr<Nod(*J»gj:
( •rtM TAMS-UljO —------------ —Im
JWm vtondM Ait Ml capcnnKa in 194J adtlicr fwc«.| the weteda the % or iln area which it located within the study area Doing io is approximate.
ItUTICiLES have probably not been incorporated in tlw above census number* If to, to take them uito account would change tlie situation in the *mlem z<
••perlnlly GanttalaJ7| .rifr
J FJei
A filter F'i’bh A’TW 4
Table 1
POPULATION GROWTH by wereda mid type of residence
Caution f. !
r
The Hxxcdu (in *To4jI fcjiftr £ alumni j *rs cxmjdmil ■■ ftholtl. ijj wpctl LWoTlheil fpirtiil in 1d.il) induuCii ilk lire HuJy Utt
Arri
>i liltM lk.u/1
1 "mil ' KiiJ.I
irt Zone
|i«m i Wrjrdi
TOTAL "REGJWr
|WM FWpiiUttaH
Rurat Uifcut TeUl
P H O J k C 1 ARK A
D E N SIT Y 1 p«iA»k' l
HUETTLED j»p (19«1 1
1984 Papulalien
Rail Uibui liiiil
199 > I'tpulBltai
Rinl I Mm n.
Ta til
|9B4 93Cr. Raia Hural 11'bAn IdJl
lolai
1994 1995
Rwil
19*1 1 M3 |
TbAiI In PapuL
wwedi hltiu IKf. L%J
I
9 IT 71 1
J U7 4*3
1074 4i,7
I Hl 12.1
491 3*0
?4iJ
0 45.0
1
Region 6
Amu
1 Kurmiik w 1 Ahui w
3 ItWfl
w
4w 5 Aniflla u
£t, 4ldin w
l : TnlilS Rr||iHb *
7 032 *1* 7731
i sns? 5 0J1 57 391 174 363 2 12» 17*351
47 JU 1 550 4V 921 45 J94 4 432 49 Ul
! W U *43 Jff JW
G
fi 27* 442 14&4B 27i m
5 031 OB* 5 714
25 1V4 4 049 15 331
MI4I3
■4| *1 32*
24 i57| 2 iW 11 211
13619
0 1J*I9
IJf 09J ff /Jd M7W 129 093 ■ 12* 157 119
14 395 410 14 105 HM> Q?y 10 449 III Ul
*7 139 1 OH 70 191 7* 510 J 761 29 342
13*74 0 13 *74 111 44? 2*477 JJf W
Q
212 4*7 I* 477 139 144
11.71 527 11.54 15*5 19 49 1505
l.l« 14.55 1.43 *T9 9*4 • 79 0*4 0 04 Iffl 7.1*
590 7 ■* *02
M 13 1 5 4 15 4 11 3 46 I 106 42 4 30.1 J4 7 29.2 n* 17-1 iV4 16 1 173
304 JO.b 27.7 27. S itf 32 3 JZ4 Jtf.fl lai 31.3 17.4 3*0
0 00 47 4*1 22*17 71.1
0 0.0
0 0.0
I 111 393 29 ,
4f 771
170 .
401711 13 320 17.0rwoJEcr arm
Rural
TOTAL ’REGION
19*4 Papula* lea
uP^KT 1LEDjg?j
Total
worvda
1991 r-r-'*lU*
____ WcrU*
Region 4 (Oromt
Krkui (Weilcm W
Iltagi
Gi/anii
AauTilo
JlNU IImo
Gaw* Km6m
Ycmclagie W<lcl
hd.o W l<r>
a
29 1W 1 071 26 362
M 06’
7<H. 34 769
24 >04 349 24 693
49 201 1 too 51 004
Dal. M 41 202 1 123 46 325
Lak) Kile 39 907 1 149 41 256
Soyo 74 174 14 074 14 494
lliwa Gcl.n
&■> lalrm
C.bnM (Wrtirm W
30 619 1 >24 32017
24 304 36 401 31241
JI 191
74 371
30 649
319 111
J49 I MOO I 123
I 349 14 074
l 321 27/13
16 441 16 229 J4 691
39 340 44 456 J2017
344 771
21 JN
17 720
24 622 43 234 43 633 42 332
41013
46 430
271 233
2 144
1 233
It 743
2 247
37 033
25 743 17 720 36 429
29 147 47 719
46 497
43 603
106 794
44 717 4/2 244
1 731 116 >01
444 42/ 31131 111 956
I) 921 645 14 573 TUI 220 7 361
21 Ml 463 21 W4
39 694
36 471
7 492
II 499
91730
23J lit
II 913 20 143
2 439 61 260 39 034
7 492 11439
IO0 461 262 024
17 362 17 479 2441
39 371 40 667
7 064 19 469
90 069
254 724
53.4 60 5 53.4 60 5
3X0 34 2 24.9 JOI
44 6 527 43 9 $1 6 7X3 49.4 64.9 44.7
74 4 47 4 7X2 42 4
75 6 *43.3 73 0 410 41 0 97.4 64 1 40.6 40.5 61 6 34 4 54 7 445 57.7 44.7 52.5
6X4 91 9 51 3 70 6 102.0 90 6 960 46 4
2X2 190 22 2 190
111.5 104 3 104 7 106 1 134 0 139 6 126 6 124 0
44.2 43.4 44 2 45 4 99 1 102.3 99.1 10X3 92 3 42 1 90.7 40 2
93.9 91.1 90. 7 46.9
4 445 4 445 22 042 16 517
7 231 6 117 754 722
5017 3 017 11 512 11 312
52 391 45 244
mm
// 7M J6J444
49 741 2 116 51 157
49 332 1 726 SI 074
34 465 J 237 34 120
19414 1 166 61 340
52 154 J 445 16 039
10 Ml 19 741 96 342
47 266 1 171 49 439
11.1070
1 252 247 521 200
264 22
0
267 149
623 34
369 147
1 424 1 564
5 129 2 931
EaMern Wrflrga (A
22 M4o
U S.du
-Vr 4//»
lUuhabor, Sor A G
II 969
12 199
11 366
7 374
12 792
24 4 27.4 24 4 27 4
349 34.9 33 4 32 9
29.9 5/3 29.1 30.2
1 513 323
0
/ SI J S23
1 JU 100 0
689 100 0
177 1000
24
15
26
. Dan
. 494 100 0
27
k 7|t 100 9
jj 490 100 0
F 641 1000
314 1000
lilt
0 00
o ot
k«
21
29 Ihrunm
30
31
Ytyu
Bcchu
it hlaAabar
34 590
JJJH
40 031
23 201
17 441
12 543
234 460
33 674 ■
37 326 E
17 I3| g
10015U
32 9731
27 366 |
29 437*
n
233 470
53 674 37 326 17 131 20015 32 973 27 366 29 437
U 126 2S.» >70
84 137
40 469
II 411
23 359
46 347
30 930
10 154
1$ 249
IM S6U
a
90 293 42 473
19 413 26 142 64 631 34 034
»3 326 1* 070
J J a rar
40.2 63 1 39.4 63 6
345 61.7 5IJ 59 3
45.3 51.7 43 2 49 0
43 7 570 4X3 55 3
67.2 42 o 50.4 14 4
60 2 74.3 99 0 <7 1 46 1 11.5 42 4 4* a
1 41.• 11.2 IQ O 44 7
J /a.
-*
3 492 3 192 6 552 6 552
3 304 3 3(M f 244 5 244
4 006 4 006 4 002 4 002 1 492 J 492
a »2« .» »Z*»
/
.»jT tt/ H/J-s
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5
X
r*
5
ORf |4 0i!M96'Jl 160 0**1
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* 3$ 2
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sass’s"« *O ■* o »
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° 3222 °
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■ r-. o «n Z m IN <N <J m
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s * *» O' O -. k.
"-RS £§
S-RR £*
n» nR•?§ 33
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”■" 2*w*
£ Ck »n
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s»
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r-
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*> ■* £
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o
o s®je2 ’5
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• * 6 "52J *• ° z*
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001 9 0TOMr. ’‘Wuriw
_______ UrtMa_________ T«aJ
l9*4r.FWUu_
Rw!________ Ufa—
o o.o Region 12
<] OO Cambria J if? 100 0 62 Gambell
1 769 100 0
2 203 100.0
3 742 100 0
9 593 IO0 0
3 596 100.0
1 971 100 0
5 062 -
0
6 062 -
fl.
63 Jtlflg
64 Jlkiwo
65 Akobo (•)
66 Gog A Jut 67 . A bubo
61 . Godcre
AT- Gan9r/a
•/ 7tJ9 4 267 12 106
■
».
i
i.
i
i ’1
t'
X 974 691 9 672
15 010
13 320
9 552
3 534
14 512
176 15 256
179 13 499
112 9 664
596 4 130 j
66 g
15 180 |
79 907 |
7 139 4 267
• 974 69K 15 010 176 13 320 179
9 552 112
3 534 596
14 512 661
72 Kit 6 696
72 III
6 994
Total Rcftloa 12
72 811
6 696 79 687
72 111 6 696
STUDY AREA
0
0
41 592
16 559
17 760
75
*J4
1984 R«g<«m
lllubalMM
BUffa
Welkga
T«ial
X06 6I5 62 497
496 363
109 422
1 401 400
21 029
69 744
IM 170
41 912 677 463 13 463 301 369 44 469 751 201
106 1144 I 737 033
96
49.■ 390
116 17.3 41 6 43.6 IMO 100 o
127 627 >0 035 913 662
314 437 20 600 335 044
■52 547 66 40 J 010 990
1 994610 175 046 2 169 696
1.94 6. JO 123
• 93 458 1.13
1 89 4.31 2 04
2.13 3.33 2-37
163 22 0 19.1 199
117 20.2 174 19.0
42 7 91.7 40 7 40 0
229 28.6 31 3 36 3
117 970 101 153 16 0 JO $10 16 111 56
107 007 71 362 9.4 246 307 1546 326 111
9k
H 9*
9k
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41 5 50.3 42 2
54 ■
21 B
23.4
190
lllufaabcx
KcHb
Wdtega
Total
33 6
20 2
46 2
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IS 1
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154
427 3 7.9 42 4
1600 IMO 100.0
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ll|ufa>tMM
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111
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t
nl Mm-- I'Unl^id
Table 3
RURAL areas j 1985-2035 Dcmoftriijiliic evolution by wortdu (population numbers and densities)
----- — —-- ------ ——
F - -------------------------------------------------------------------------- —----------------—|
Ar iik wImb
Wl
* trill
ilk
li*>W
Rural popVIA now
Cranlb
1 VB4I ■ f P J P-nln
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P. a4JuH. PCM lliral
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Bum M«r i -»j
9>» nn
2074
I MJ W|
’412 1 <11
Region 6
Aflcna
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71 1
>0X1
15 219
14 W 11.71
100 SIS 1161
ft? i yo 1.1 fl
26 M0 • 79
|5 A74
222 447 IW
>11 M7 IM
0 00
22 Hl T3.fi
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0 00
Ml 29
If HO 14*
H 320 I6.P
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7 95
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n 771
413
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2 Ai«a w
1 ll«^i
4 detain 
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9
2 95 111 <21 1 20 BU*
1 41 mu 74 955
3 J 6 114
3J4 501
1 am 22 174
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151 2*2
014 14 970
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IM 223 191 903 0*4 BUT
v/642 101 590 O.M 470
IS 740 36 <39 041 2)1
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Region 4 (Orondi)
Krlw (WtUrrn IVrikjab
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34 Ml
11619
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0 42 IS 389
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21 2-14 1.00 241
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1 14 7 «Q 7640 1 M J!l
1 14 JO IB JI 411 134 562
1 14 48 ?22 49 700 I.S4 931
1.14 46 9SI 47104 1 S4 90S
1 14 45 594 46 54W M4 119
1 14 91 J52 9665 b 1.14 NIS
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Tabic 5
PROJECT AREA :
19K5-20.15 Demographic evolution by woredn (population numbers mid densities)
Wet^S.
TbIbI POPULATION
Ltalttrtjr
RcC lull 6
2 Amii
3.
4 <bdann
$ AiUita
ll Ar* it
102 415
M >96
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27 221
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277 94?
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112 411
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4 r3u-i«riu w
3 Andik w
6 . JirtU IhbTC «
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16 4411
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a 19 075 1.14 II 1
24 292
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9 Daiie Welwt w
10 Dale 5-<L •
II leUKik w
12 Myo w
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11 777 4 4S2 H 229 31.6
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24 304 119 24 «3 44 6
46 IM 1 IOC U6M ns
M >41 1 123 rt)M 74 4
II 191 1 349 It 540 75.6
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52 456 4 7|i 37 |T2 • 11 12 4
1 013 0 2015 1 45 61 6
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11 722 4171 31600 t H jn
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51 4U 7<M i2 nt l.lt 410
49 700 3 061 52 761 1.46 wr m
41 M-1 3 593 31 *17 1.61 7? 1
•6 W9 1 M2 taOM 1.61 91 9
96 654 12 267 III 920 1.74 |0B 9
1O9«7 2131 Mill 1 61 01 1
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P Ml 9)9 IB 30? 111 92 7
2 476 0 2 476 006 192
39 Ml 1 6*1 60 729 0.03 1106
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7 164 0 9 161 4 06 46 0
1914$ 143 2Q 5U 6.71 l«2
H Ml 3 lr£ 91 919 IM
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2139 0 >159 32 2
59 694 1 566 61 JAO in 5
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7 492 0 1492 41 2
11159 0 11159 99.1
91 7M 1 331 100 461 92 5
MJ Ml 9770 361*21 W1
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19 2110
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30 TH I 21 504
2 632
61 127
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7
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7 077 974 tost • 17 149 29IIS 519 29 703 IM 556
46 011 2 M/, 41 604 2JJ 91 0
44 363 3 OOi 47 37J I 17 •0.5 41012 1 306 44 >19 1.16 <4|
N9 53J ItM! ■ Pt 1 It 1 11 999 47 211 2M4 49613 4M «.?
JI/ W M6J/ 4JOJP4 r,w 514
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2413 0 2411 ■ l 44 19 3
>9 267 1 MJ 60619 4 It 1104
37 926 1527 4| 4M CM 1413
1115 Q 7 119 1.42 462 19 IM 0 I9B1M 441 104 1
Ul4» 7142 91 671 •Ml 141 241162 Il Ht 251 4J1 -0/0 n*
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7 06* 444 7 512 110 35 6 1J 371 444 HU! • 47 Jit
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Total fXWl LAI ION
1 904
Taaal
Rural Uttaa laaal Dm»itj
Rural
1 99S
IMma laeal
Ti•tai
rnn Dutaity
Hint
la 1AM
IliUaa
la lOtS Ubtat Total
•n i
54 Tero^a Ta k
.Vt it—a a
M%|1
55 Darr » 56 Kcm- k
57 daata b
M ik>Mia k
JO - k eo i 41 Mahal b
Sr A Taaal Rrgioa 1
95 »90 7125 102 521 95 0 II7 911 tin 124 949 149
00
00
MOM 9M 7016 2 9
Cl 0 0 00 6 101 124 6 225 19 1 592 0 1 592 11*5 2 747 5M » 17) 64
1 442 JIS 6 177 4 7
4A0 0 460 21
12999 1 941 2/7/1 49
00
irouj 7om JOI 654 210
111 971 10196 122 174 1.7?
1IOO
IMA 41 0
224 119
fatal
FCR l*ww»y
i <n 160 0
2015 2635
la IMS
LMaan Total
119
316
104 452 2MBI9
59 530
41 419
910
uu
b9t
1)9 tA 7 4J0 4<
141 791 H 194 114 111 20) 204 00
00
6 205 1 Ml 7 949 1.11 34 O0U
J Ml J2J 4 195 -J.17 26 2517 0 2 517 469 166
) M4
1050 • 79
6 176 941 7 110 1 41 5 4 J90 0 ♦90 1 44 1 4
125117 12 911 199 444 14 199
00
0o 6 )30 2 in
00 3 949 >06
0
2 401 01) fl MM) 1 126
406 0
JW 111
60
21 911
4 474
741 967
112 299
25 645
12*J41
12 rw 1 201
79 494
21 ill J 744 If 141 911
00
41
431 144 3? *17 44910) 163 149
00
4S0JM 46 966
17 499
496 Ml
061 J40
00
00
i<<£fon 12 0 0 0 0 <i«aiAHa 0 0 0 0
I) 117 1000
'll Ml 100 0
■ 2 20) 1000
]» 742 IU09
zl? $93 100 0
Jll196 |u0 0
Jl 9’l 100 0
41 ttaabah i
6)
i
64 IAr*a »
65 M-bo (•> 1
ta Dag A Jor i
67 Abebo i
(9 Dtataa a
St C^aba/ J
fatal Megk-a 1
tow 4 2457 12 106 10
a 974 4M 9 672 55
naw 176 15256 69
IJ 120 179 II 499 36
9552 112 9664 1 0
) 534 596 4 IW> 1 1
14512 660 IS 100 7.7
niM 4 494 79 997 11
non 4 4H 79107 JI
12 109 nvM sons 904
19040 2212 22 051 1.50 42 M3 007 4)605 II 09 29152 7Jf 2*> «W> 037 14 57f 1602 40 1)960 I 16 14054 1 104 I6OU 14 SJ 26 (H9 2 Ml 21039 6 6.)
119154 27219 199 199 9 9)
402
199 474
14 741
51 269 110 01 J
75 3)1 51 ISO JO MJ 61 JM
4l) 794
91 >22
55 372
12 300
» MZ
• 062
20 002
35914
1J4 411
79 199
49! JU
00 41J
JOK94
212 915
192 J20
94 155
97 906
HI 919
I 911 129 192 429
119144 27 IM 106 090 101
199674 36 762 236 611
216000 225 011 2 401010
79 599 401 374
1 Ml 320
Ifl <19
I 1W 950
mt «
1 591
6 390
’ 7W -
1913 .
lb
UktalMM
Kalb
Walley
Taaal
620 151 U 912 677 463 16)
M4I Hf
91 MS 7) I 601
207 906 1) 461
71 J m 44 469
>01 J69
10 2
319153 21 406 J41 J44
* 36 224
125 20 6
750 701 42 7
M7 J46
1 AM 109
H
IM064 1 717 011
SH
69 2)2 9M470 1 13 52 7
11-9
J 019 0M in sqj
54
2 211 SOJ
2.44 29 1
967 AH
342 520
9J5 146
2 111 000
116745
26 242
02 OJJ
21SOI9
1 004 J M
360 7«|
1 OO) 1)9
2 461 OI9
3.01 Ml
LM 22 I
1 Ml 121 211 372 1 752 4*72 3 21 42 1
2 640 414 411 IO6 3M6 8 39 1.17
74 2
1 76 41.0
1.41
56.7
4)1 ■□■ 47 306
I .-M 071 1 30 629
) 04 1 090 309 307
479 |I4 t 76
1 211 >00 1.27
219
68 6
579 760 99 690 679 451
1 272 B07 240 495
1 $1 J 302 1 09 15 2
3.16 124
3 4S0 297 2 21 42 5
4 KI 000 771 SOO 5 279 599 2.15 695
510
21 0
21 4
190.0
IIMmImh
Kafla
Wdhr
fatal
SOS
177
4J0
450
19 0
41 S MJJ
n 6 173
42 2
54 H H
433 31 9 44 1
54
MH
511 56 3 515
41 6
ISO 111 154
HS
50 3 54 3 501
100 0 IMO
4J6
IMO
42 7
1000
179 42 J
IMO
100 0
153 11 7
II 4 M 5
IMO 1M0
ISO
41 0
100.0
14 1 12 2
3$ 5 13 6
119
MJ
IMO IMO IOOO
i-wa - ' cpuiaiMM ilitnrth Rata. m H jwr yaw IkiiMy Total ixv^Aian i total area of the woteta
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
129 120
213 30 9
160 0 IM 0
129
20 ?
100 0
- ----------------------------------------------------------------- -- -----/
1
J1985-2035 demographic evolution in the Project Area
Demographic indicators
Rural areas
Ration Xhcusanas /
ictal
Hale
finale
0-4
■Miles 15-49
KZe * iimalft %
H * Ht
:-$4 %
1985 1990 1995 2000
1630 1868 2029 2236 819 935 1013 1114 811 932 1016 1122
302 326 349 387
470 578 589 627
749 864 1007 1135
109 99 84 86 315 370 423 477
50*2 50.1 49.9 49.8 49 . a 49.9 50.1 50.2
2005 2015 2025 2035
2479 3061 3737 4501 1234 1522 1856 2235 1245 1538 18 81 2265
446 555 634 727
685 886 1081 1235
1260 1511 1901 2426
87 109 120 112 528 658 858 1049
49.8 49.7 49.7 49.7 50.2 50.3 50.3 50.3
taales 15-49%
18.5 17.4
28.8 31.0
46.0 46.2
6.7 5.3
17.2 17.3 18.0 IB . 1 17 * 0 16.2
29.0 28.1 27,6 28.9 28.9 27.4
49.6 50.6 50.8 49.4 50.9 53.9
4.2 3.9 3.5 . 3.6 3.2 2,5
19.3
19.8
20.8
21.3
21,3
21.5
23.0
23*3
ratio
100.9
100.4
99.7
99.3
99.1
99.0
98.7
93.7
2 7^- ratio
b
'^4.3 age
1.029
16.9
1.047
15.8
0.931
0.894
0.897
0.954
0.902
0.809
16.4
17.0
17.0
16.4
16.8
17.8
‘ Sc'i'‘ «atBS of
85-90
Change
90-95
95-00
00-05
05-10
10*15
20-25
30-35
' L°00
1
g ^OQ
42.2
41.5
42.0
43.6
44.3
42.5
39.1
37.9
17.5
15.2
14.8
14.6
14.2
13.0
11.3
10.7
rtt cent
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.9
3.0
3.0
2.8
2.7
2,7
1.7
1-9
2.1
2.1
2.1
1.9
1.885-90
Fertility
TFR
7.49
90-95
7.49
95-00
7.29
00-05
7.09
05-10
6.89
10-15
6.69
3.69
3.69
3.59
3.49
20-25 6 ’L
GRR
3.39
3.30
KRR
2.85
2.86
2.80
2.75
2.69
2.64
M^n age of
3.02
2.«
Cx— Id bearing
31.5
31.3
31.1
30.9
30.7
30.5
30.1
C/W ratio
0.96
0.88
0.82
0.81
0.34
0.87
Age distribution of fertility table = None
Mortality
o.ac
Male LE
51.8
52.1
52.4
52.9
53.4
53.9
54.<
Female LE
55.0
55.3
55.6
56.0
56.5
57.1
5S.E
Total LE
53.4
53.7
54.0
54.5
55.0
55.5
56.:
IMR
102.3
102.6
119.3
127.5
123.9
119.4
112.'
CMR
148.5
146.8
148.9
147.2
143.0
134.3
118J
Life table = Coale-Deraeny West
Inmigration
•
(Thousands)
Male irmigrati
2.3
-10.0
-8.7
-10.4
-12.5
-13.3
Female imiuigra
2.0
-9.0
-7.9
-9.5
-11.4
-12.5
Total imnigrat
-26.3
-l£.i
-is.:
•>11
4.3
-19.0
-16.6
-19.9
-23.9
_____
85-90
2O'J
Births and Deaths
90-95
95-00
00-05
05-10
10-15
(Thousands)
Births
Deaths
* 53 *
73.7
30.5
80.8
29.5
89.5
31.6
102.9 34.4
116.0
37.2
137.2 41.8
44-1985
1990
1995
total
males females TOTAL males FEMALES TOTAL MALES
FEMALES
1630.1
818*6
811.5
1867.6
935.5
932.1
2029.1
1012.8
4
9
301.6
152.1
149.4
325.9
163.8
154.6
135.9
290.9
162.1
348.7
175.3
290-4
146.6
144.3
305.9
153.5
14
179-3
94.8
84.6
287.6
153.0
134.6
233.2
142.8
19
113.4
62.5
50.9
lao* 6
95.4
85.2
89-7
44.9
44 -S
117.6
266.0
141.7
64.5
41.1
55.1
90.1
53.1
96.2
147.9
39.7
51.4
45.1
78.4
95.0
45.0
102.6
91-1
40.8
56.4
1016.3
173.4
152.4
140.3
124.3
69.5
46.1
89.3
42.1
47.2
88.9
54.2
80.8
39.8
35.5
3B.8
73.9
38.4
50.1
86.3
88-4
37.2
56.8
30.1
26.7
40.7
70.7
45.7
83.3
33.7
35.8
54.9
24.4
30.5
36.9
53.5
80.9
28.1
37.7
34.3
17.7
16.6
25.5
50.5
65.1
22.1
30,8
49.8
22.7
27.1
28.4
30.4
48.0
15.4
25.0
25.7
14.2
11.6
15.0
29.1
41.6
43.9
18,5
23.1
18.9
13.5
15.6
19.5
24.8
10.5
12.3
13.8
7.9
9-1
31.3
13.5
40.7
5.8
19.0
20.9
19.9
8.5
19.3
10.5
9.9
12.4
9.5
6.5
15.7
7.0
41.0
51.3
47.5
43.1
34.3
23.0
25.0
12.5
17.8
6.0
8.7
total 2235.7
287.0 328.7
298.6
263.6
234.5
132.0
9 3.1
7 4.8
83.0
78-1
74.8
58. a 4L- 6
3 6.J 18 .5
2000
MALES females
TOTAL
2005
MALES FEMALES
H14.1
194.6 165.0
149.9 132.7
125.4
70.4
50.9
36.3 34.3
33.2 34.6
27.5 21.4
15-2 9.0
8.4
5.2
1121.6 2478.5
192.4
163.7
148.7
130.9
109.1 62.4
42.2
38.5
48.6
44.9
40.3
31.3
20.2
21.0
9.6
11-9
6.0
446.0 364.6
320.5 275.9 226.8
214.4 120.6
85.5 69.1 77.4
72.0 67.5
51.1
34.1
27.3
11.9
14.0
1233.9
224.3 183.1
161.0 138.2
114.0 114.8
63.4 46.4
33.1 31.6
30.2 30.8
23.5 17.2
11.1
5.6
5.7
1244.6
221.6
181.5
159.5
137.7
112.8
99.6 57.2 39.2
36.0
45.8
41.8
36.7 27.5
16.9
16.2
6.3
a .3
TOTAL
3060.7
555.0 475.9
409.8 326.2 247.3
209.0 187.8
186.1
103.2
72.8
58.0
63.9
56.3
48.5
31.7
16.4 12.6
2015 MALES
1522.3
279.3 239.2 206.0
163.5
123.4 103.9
93.1 98.6 53.2 38.9
27.2
25.3
22.9
21-3 13 .
7.
4.
FEMALES
1538.4
275.7
236.7
203.8
162.7
123.9 105.2
94.7
87.5 50.0 33.9 30.8
38.6
33.5
27.2
17.8
7 8. . 962025
2035
AGE----------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------
TOTAL MALES FEMALES TOTAL MALES
FEMALES
TOTAL
3736.8
1855.9
1680.9
4500.7
2235.5
2265.2
0-4
634.2 •
318.3
315.9
727.2
366.6
5-9
568.6
285.6
283.1
646.5
3 60 6
325.5
10-14
512.5
257.7
254.8
588.8
321.0
295.3
15-19
429.4
215.4
214.0
293 5
514.3
20-24
257.8
321.4
160.6
160.9
256.5
406.8
25-29
246.7
203.3
122.6
124.2
203.5
333.8
30-34
202.7
166.1
99.5
103.2
268.3
167.7
35-39
178.8
132.0
86.7
92.1
136.3
40-44
165.1
212.2
102.9
80.2
84.9
109.2
45-49
50-54
178.2
165.0
88.2
85.5
86.3
44.9
78.7
43.4
92.7
55-59
158.4
144.6
59.2
75.5
69.2
31.4
27.8
82.9
75.4
60-64
140.1
44.5
72.4
20.4
24.1
67.8
65-69
46.1
69.4
34.7
17.3
34.7
28.8
70-74
42.3
35.5
21.9
13.5
20.4
22.0
75-79
27.9
24.0
9.8
12.2
15.7
14.2
80+
23.4
14.9
8.1
5.9
15.3
9.0
18.4
6.4
12.0
Summary AIDS Indicators
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
HIV Population (Thousands)
To* al 0 1 15 24 27 29 32
Ma_as 0 1 7 12 13 14 16 17
Females 0 1 8 12 14 15 17 18 1.8
40
19
20
Adult prevalence
New AIDS Cases (Thousands)
0.0 0.1 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
Total 0 0 1 2 3 3 3 J 2
3
Males
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
Z
2
Females
0
0
0
1
1
2
2
Z
85-90 90-95
95-00
00-05
05-10
10-15
15-20
20-25
Annual HIV+ Births
(Thousands)
1
1
1
Total
0
0
1
1
1
1
n 7
0-'
Percent
0.0
0.3
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
Total 0 0 1 2 3 3 3
Annual AIDS Deaths
(Thousands)
3
0 9
3
0^
Per 1000
0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9Total Population (Thousands)
Year Total Males Females 1935 163D 819 811 1986 1691 849 842
1987 1743 875 068
1988 1788 897 091
1989 1828 916 912
1990 1868 935 932
1991 1904 953 951
1992 1935 968 967
1993 1965 982 983
1994 1995 996 999
1995 2029 1013 1016
1996 2067 1031 1036
1997 2107 1051 1056
1998 2148 1071 1077
1999 2191 1092 1099
2000 2236 1114 1122
2001 2281 1137 1145
2002 2329 1160 1169
2003 2377 1184 1193
2004 2427 1209 1219
2005 2479 1234 1245
2006 2531 1260 1271
2007 25B4 1286 1298
2008 2639 1314 1326
2009 2696 1341 1354
2010 2753 1370 1383
2011 2812 1399 1413
2012 2873 1429 14 44
2013
2934
1460
2014
2997
1491
2015
3061
1522
2016
3125
1555
2017
3191
1587
2018
3258
1621
2019
3326
1654
2020
3393
1688
2021
3461
1721
2022
3529
1754
2023
3597
1787
2024
3666
1821
2025
3737
1856
2026
3809
1892
2027
3882
1928
2028
3956
1965
2029
4031
2002
2030
4107
2040
2031
4184
2078
2032
4262
2117
2033
4341
2156
2034
4420
2196
2035
4501
2235
1475
1506
1538
1571
1604
1638
1672
1706
1740
1775
1810
1845
1081
1917
1954
1991
2029
2067
2105
2145
2184
2224
2265faro-Akobc River B&sx Integrated Master Plan
Table 7
1985-2035 demographic evolution in the Project .Area Demographic indicators
Lrban ARLAS
1985
1990
Population
1995
2000
2005
2015
2025
Total
Tiale
Female
107827
52275
55552
143689
70842
72847
182503 90738 91765
225019
112600
112418
270524
136112
134412
389309
197441
191868
564410
287860
276550
O-«t
5-14
15-64
17299
32104
52938
5485
23008
27668 35192 75492
5338
33772
36714
45588
95017
5184
42807
43128
64053
48241
79096
. 64126
112381 5457
49609
103139
86154
141462
65+
Females 15-49
137405
5782
60424
213945
8098 95000
325908
10886 140946
Male %
Female %
48.5
51.5
49.3
50.7
49.7
50.3
50.0
50.0
50.3
49.7
50.7
49.3
51.0
49.0
0-4 *
5-9 %
16.0
19.3
29.8
49.1
5.1
21.3
20.1
24.5
52.5
3.7
23.5
19.2
25.0
52.1
2.8
23.5
17.8
16.5
15.3
15-64 %
65+ I
28.5
49.9
2.4
22.0
29.2
50.8
Females 15-49%
2-1 .
26.5
55.0
2.1
22.3
24.4
25.1
57.7
1.9
25.0
Sex ratio
Depend, ratio
98.9
Median age
94.1
0.933
16.9
97.2
0.833
17.5
0.866
17.4
100.2
0.954
16.3
101.3
0.927
16.3
1C2.9
0.782
17.9
104.1 0.698
19.3
85-90
Annual Rates of
90-95
Change
95-00
00-05
05-10
10-15
20-25
CBR / 1000
CDR / 1000
47.2
13.7
3.3
5.7
50.4
15.1
3.5
4.8
48.5
19.6
2.9
4.2
44.7
21.6
2.3
3.7
42.3
RNI percent
GR percent
21.0
2.1
3.6
39.4
19.6
2.0
3.7
33.9
18.0
1.6
3-4a
JCtili^
0
jiff
iNE
a?e °f
d -a bearing t- i ratio
85-90 90-95 95-00 00-05 05-10 10-15 2 0-25 30-35
7.06 7.06 6.76 6.46 6.16 5.66 4.66 3.66
3.48 3.48 3.33 3.18 3.03 2.79 2.30 1.80
2.83 2.84 2.73 2.62 2.52 2.33 1.96 1.57
30.7 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.5
0.75 0.82 0.86 0.87 0.80 ■ 0.73 0.65 0.55
distribution of fertility table = None
i
(
lirtality
61b li
«tetle LE
.rrtal LE
na
r -fe table = uion
55.0 55.3 55.6 56.0 56.5 57.1 58,5 60.6
53.2 58.5 58.8 59,3 59.7 60.3 61.8 63-8
56-7
56.9 57.2 57.6 58-1 58.6 60.1 62.1
86.3 107.6 316.7 372.2 376.9 382.4 354.1 332.6
126.4 West
171.4 180.4 178.1 170.9 151.7 118.4
fcti- ,- e ismigra
h!e
for
123.3 Coale-Demeny
1550.0 1410.o 2960.0
1049.0
1363.0
1773-0
1604-0
3377.0
2306.0
3000.0
* ^otigrat
949.0 1237.0
1998.0 2600.0
2086.0 2713.0
4392.0 5713.0
5068.C
4585.0
9653.0
6703.0
6064.0
12767,0
! -r.i
' E Death
85-90 s
5931.6 1719.2
90-95 95-00 00-05 05-10 10-15 20-25 30-35
8222.0
2457.4
9890.6 11083.0 12565-4
3987.6
5359.2
6255-2
16915.0 8392-8
20900.8 22003.6
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age **
2025
total males females total males females
TOTAL 564 410- 02378 60- 027 6550.0778 599.03 9 8860 >0379739. 0
U
5-9
i n L— » -1J-4
on-24
95-29
■? 0—34
15-39
40—4 4
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-&4
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
86154.0 43412.0 42742.0100734.0 50810.0 49974.0
75821-0
38188.0
37632.0
96333.0
48588.0
47795.0
65641 - 0
33000.0
32640.0
89165.0
44858.0
44307.0
63213-0
32077.0
31136.0
87281.0
44319.0
42962.0
64975-0
33470.0
31506.0
88197.0
45500.0
42697.0
56078-0
29259.0
26820.0
76182.0
39863.0
36319.0
44429.0
23464.0
20965.0
63124.0
33384.0
29739.0
31300.0
16689.0
14611.0
51083.0
27123.0
23950.0
18652.0
10187.0
8465.0
39751.0
21137.0
18614.0
15609-0
8166-0
7443.0
27727.0
14738.0
12989.0
14337.0
7094.0
7243.0
16200.0
8682.0
7518.0
11537.0
5630.0
5907.0
13543.0
6792.0
6756.0
5778.0
2592.0
31S6.O
12070.0
5658.0
6412.0
4400.0
1876.0
2524.0
8925.0
4110.0
4815.0
3239.0
1465.0
1775.0
3922-0
1625.0
2296.0
2150.0
846.0
1304.0
2491.0
978-0
1513.0
1097.0
445.0
652.0
1765-0
696.0
1069.0
Summary AIDS Indicators
1985
1990 1995 2000
^>lation
fc4155
:!t P^ai
12
1317
18432
26057
6
6
640
677
8953
9479
12650
13407
ence
0.0
1.5
17.0
20-1
31722 39318 15393 19072 16330 20246
20.2 20.2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2035 4 59437 72530104689
8558 23537 25021
20.1
28787 30650
20.1
35098 50561 37433 54128
20.1 20.2
Cases
0
41
896
2530
3181
3743 4294 5118 6030 3570
0
20
444
1240
2501
0
20
452
1290
1556 1831 2100 2193
1624
1912
2617
85-90
90-95
95-00
00-05
05-10
10-15
15-20
20-25
2944 4176
3086 4395
25-30 30-35
HIV+ Births
’“'tit
20
306
715
922
1505 7.9
0.3
3.7
7.2
a.3
1067
8.5
1221
3-4
1365
8.1
AIOS
*°0c
 o.
atlls
19
440
1628
2726
33D8
11-1
3846
10.8
4518
10.5
5368
10-4
1636
7.8 6332
1745
7.9 7628
10.3 10.5
0-1
2.7
8.0
11.0I
Year Total
1985 107827
1986 114811
1987 121872
1988 129026
1989 136292
1990 143689
1991 151204
1992 158824
1993 166569
1994 174456
1995 182503
1996 190721
1997 199099
1998 207620
1999 216265
2000 225019
2001 233801
2002 242622
2003 251602
2004 260863
2005 270524
2006 280525
2007 290787
2008 301399
2009 312451
2010 324034
2011 336105
2012 348603
2013 361593
2014 375140
2015 389309
2016 404081
2017 419414
2018 435334
2019 451070
2020 469049
2021 486976
2022 505632
2023 524861
Total Population
Males Females
52275 55552
55923 58888
59588 62283
63286 65740
67032 69260
70842 72847
74705 76499
78610 80214
82574 83995
86612 87844
90738 91765
94958 95763
99262 99837
103642 103977
108091 108174
112600 112418
117131 116669
121687 120933
126330 125272
131118 129744
136112 134412
141281 139245
146585 144203
152069 149330
157780 154672
163762 160273
169993 166113
176441 172162
183143 178450
190131 185009
197441 191868
205061 199020
212970 206445
221182 214153
229714 222157
238582 230468
247840 239136
257478 248155
2024 544505
267414
257447
277568
2025 564410
266938
2026 584636
287860
276550
2027 605287
298321
286315
2028 626271
309003
296284
2029 647497
319862
306409
2030 66BB72
330851
316646
2031 690458
341924
326948
2032 712315
353112
337346
2033 734353
364446
347870
2034 756478
375879
358474
2035 778599
387366
369112
39B86O
379739CONOMICS
ANNEX 3B SOCIOETHN'IC GROUPS ANALYSIS
ANNEX 3B
SOCIO-ETHNIC GROUPS ANALYSIS
Rirtt Buln Iirttfirilrd Derdopffl"* M«trIANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHN1C GROUPS ANALYSIS
CONTENTS
rSTRODVCT^Oji —
b*«
,
I- .% of the Study...........................
ASSESSMENT OF available data.
Field Survey.. .. ...... ................
! ’ General Observations
Group Identities.... ..................................
2 4 Staple Food for Subsistence.............................
,c perceptions of Wealth... ..
* ; gender, Agricultu re and t he D omestic Econom y....
1 ...I
*****......................***................... M. ■««•*.»... . . ........................................................................................... „„2
........... ............ .......................................... T
............................................... .................. 2
................................................................ 3
4
.......................................... 4
I
2 7 Traditional Social Networks.............................................................. 3 MAJOR ETHNIC GROUPS OF THE AREA—
3 1 Introduction
-
12 Index; of ethnic groups .............................................
.. ..5
...6
.....7
... 7
.. .7
4, ANALYSIS by region I
4.1 Lowlands..
4! I Anuak ............... 4.1.2 TheNuer
4 1.3 Ethnic Tensions
.......................
4.2 Highland Forest and Escarpment
42.1 Bench............. ...........
42.2
42.3
42.4
42.5
Kefa...........................
Ihe Majanger............
The Tishana Me ‘en:
Sheko.........................
4 3 Open Woodlands and Farmland
4.2.1 Keficho...,.............................
4- 3.2 Oromo................................
4 J 3 Shekicho (Mocha;................. 5 PRIORITIES by sector
- I Small Holder Agriculture
i I 8-1 I ■ I ■ ■ ■ •»**» I ■ «■*•■««««■■..I...i1i 2a*ir< ■!■■■■>■<■ ■■■■
.12
..12 ..13 ..14
.15
.15
. 16
.16
.......................................................... IS
............................................................. 79
................................................. ............20
........................................................... 20
............................................................ 20
.......................................................... 21
■n
22
-Agricultural intensification and labour shortage....
■ ocid Security. Nutrition and Communal Labour
22
.....23
JZ/ Beer...
5- 2.2 ................................ .......................................
------ ■' !' S
1 »« B S -i..r
II a ■ H ■- ~~ - B B B.1.BII II‘
- = «'» I' I = B - 1 f F - I -• • 4
5.3
5.4
5.5
Marketing of foodstuffs and the domestic economy ~-............................................ 23
Livestock ................ .............................................................................................................. 24
^ re^try and Protection of the Catchment ................................................................ ................. 34
tte
Impacts of NGO’s ............
....................
....................
..............................
..........................
. 25
6. r
6.1conclusions and impl
ications
for dev
elopment
26
6 -l.l ’ J te, ResourceSi £ irrigation.......
6-2
Hydrology,
Irrigation
and Flood
Control
26
6.3
6.4
6.5
5.6
67
and Sanitation ^ '7::' “'"7................................................................................. 27
o^Forestry.................................................... ....
Tourism... .............. ...............................
T AMS-ULG Bjro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
• 4
29 31I
SOCIO-ECONOMICS
mwex 3B soao^Tmc GR0VFS atm
6 8 Impact of Refugee Populations
6 9 Cultural Constraints to Development.............................................................. 3]
6 9.1 Patterns of settlement .. 3j 6.9.2 Marriage............................................................................................... 32
6.10 Trading and Tradition 6 11 Local Priorities 
........... 32
“ -33
6.11.1 Mizan Tefari (SEPAR)................................................................... 33
6.11.2 Dima Town
......... 3<
6.11.3 Gambela Town:................................................................................... ............. . ...
6.11.4 Masha (Shekicho zones, SEPARj
7. NEED FOR FURTHER STUDIES
.................................. 33
7.1 Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) and Participatory Urban Appraisal (PUA)? 7.2 Nutrition and food sources
BIBLIOGRAPHY ... .................... ••••••....... ................................. acronyms
CSA
Central Statistical Authority
TAMS-l LG Baro-Altobo River Bavin Integrated Development Marler Plan
3B-ti’OMICS ANNEX 3B SOClO-ETHXIC GROUPS ANALYSIS
INTROD ICTION
(1 AiflJ ofthe Study
dv is aimed IO assess communities' perceptions of development needs, priorities and ^siradnts to provide the socio-ethnic background for future analysis of development options and interventions
^ijerable information on regional priorities for development was collected by the -onsultants. While acquisition of new land is not perceived to be an issue by most forest dwellers ft is a critical problem in the agro-ecological zones of open woodland and farmland, which suffer from the stresses of overpopulation and overgrazing. Shifting cultivators living id the highly forested regions continue to slash and bum neiv tracts of land according to the iraditioTia] cycle of cultivation and fallow However, it seems essential to address the conflict between forest conservation and agricultural expansion now, before undue encroachment takes place and the wealth of forest is destroyed in Orortiiya, in particular, due to the scarcitv of new land, youth are leaving the farms to take up remunerative wage labour elsewhere or pursuing higher education in the hopes of white-collar employment in urban centres Subsistence agriculture remains the norm in most communities, though more and more cash crops are being cultivated to meet the increasing demand for consumer goods
Issues of food security, land tenure and wealth creaiion (mainly through the acquisition of cattle) remain the prime concerns of small landholders However, there is an awareness of the need for fertilisers and improved seeds in most areas, combined with a willingness io pay Agricultural intensification through Global 2000 has proved a boon in Dembidolo, for
sample, but it is not yet clear that the transition to surplus creation will take place as a result these interventions alone. Improved extension using video and other media, newly 
^signed storage facilities and more specific monitoring of new seed varieties will in the long ' Jn ^tribute to greater farmer confidence and investment in the sector.
Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Mister Plan
JB-1SOCIO-ECONOMICS ANNEX JB SOCIO-ETHNIC GROIrvc .
------------------------—--------------------------------------------------- --------- ----
assessment of available data
2.1 Field Survey
Field surveys of the local socio-economic environment and communities' priorities fa development were conducted in the project area between Jan. 26th - Feb 10th. To assess attitudes at the grassroots level, interviews were organised in randomly selected villages of each major ethnic group, either with men alone, women alone or mixed groups.)
2.2 General Observations
In analysing these meetings and interviews general social trends could be observed
• a greater homogenisation of peoples as a result of cash crop cultivation and trade
incentives
• a greater synthesization of activities amongst sedentary agriculturists and shifting subsistence cultivators and
• ownership of cattle, either for ploughing and manuring, or subsistence, as the main
marker or differential of wealth between rich and poor
It was also possible to discern several trends in commercial and agro-economic development across the basin
A move by small farmers in the highlands to expand and consolidate agricultural holdings to improve food security
A desire to diversify' cash sources by growing more cash crops
A desire to acquire cattle, sheep, goats or chickens (even amongst sedentary agriculturists in the lowlands) to ensure food security and develop a further cash source
Subsistence economies are theh h,and forest peoples w-ho practice shifting cultivation. Lhe lowland ’8
brKd« Sirpluse
programme (Global 2000 and Ministry- nf
™ Oromo, ».ho m
c3n l,
Lflc 0,5 hec,are agricultural inpuis
5 irPPacts ^avc been mixed. The major '^ricuJture)ln some sectors of Oromiya, although 01 hectares in the lowlands and 0 R hMnStr^m WOu,d aPpear to be land size (an average
on a 1989/90 survey) which would agricultural inputs is the oulv viable both regions .
In the Mliands (c.f CSA 1995, data based
intensificat*on of agriculture and use of
fttlod of increasing subsistence and food security m
statistical data, it s
d £thioplan national ^ J’/?
^dhoMings lend lo be abose the npnn
evampkl ghes an-.nrt., be.b°r:K m muid that avtraemr- a .S! However. tn considering the implications 0
areas and crops cuitk ' ^0Ina£««>us result whjctf c a rpanjcuJaf
of 1“i' land holdings or hous analysehol is ofd ts£une ize. - aofnd d.sas.er prnoe
------------per SS'X?
or famine), and the
01 *" planC5 (as a bulwark against
r o!<farMx number oTe/in*r« V" 'EF>AJl zonc indicates that ihcrc are rWA^
m
3B-2ANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHNIC GROUPS ANALYSIS
i trend towards innovation and diversification of crops is sink i no in k Lt
«W> “ d'''lopme"‘ °f ftui,s-tob““-
ff
“ « >nd oil «d' as c Jc opl fa
u
,
Thc aim °? T- “T ” “ "'
prm ' sut”i!,e"« «“! «qu« ca’h ” S°°d5' no! thc aciuLm“bt:0" “f surPlu'« howtver. Gni„ crops Md 01hc,
501,1 fo'““ by subM!,H1“
fm s
Lu m do so Food security is paramount.
ur gent necu
ln the xMi»m Tefen area where the Bench shifting cultivators live, specific cash crops not ic3 j to nutrition are sold to buy consumer goods Oromo farmers in Wollega however
are forced to sellthcir cash cr°P (mai“) a’ harvest, despite the low selling price, because of the nsk of significant losses from weevils. (Teff the staple, is stored instead, as it is less w >nerable to pest attack) In this instance, the inability of Oromo farmers to improve storage facilities and fight pests has forced them into a non-economic option The priority must be to jjlenate such problems since such a situation makes it difficult for farmers to produce jjrpluses. improve their cash base or move beyond subsistence
The presence of large private and state coffee plantations in the highlands, which have existed since the development of the coffee industry in the 50’s, currently provide a source of daily wage for local and migrant labour. It is noteworthy that in these areas, grains are imported in rather than grown. As a result of the trade boom stimulated by the sale of coffee, the resettlement of highlanders into the region, and the increase in the number of migrant labourers, a greater homogenisation of peoples and economies appears to be taking place. In the SEPAR region in particular, with more middle-men bringing consumer products for sale in exchange for cash crops (coffee, honey, spices and to a lesser degree, fruit crops), it seems dear that commerce will intensify along with demands for a more cash-oriented economy
2-3 Group Identities
A greater synthesis of lifestyles and activities has also evolved between the traditional sedentary' cultivators and the slash and burn agriculturists Ln the movement towards 
- entarizatiem. the Majanger, in particular, have settled in the forest near to towns and have Sun to grow fruit trees, a source of petty cash but also a sign of permanence
0TTasP0nding1y. amongst the Anuak, the cropping of maize and sorghum is now
ti'c-i- en?ented by cultivation of mango, papaya and the breeding of goats and chickens, due to their ff Ue forces of convertible capital. The Majanger have not changed other facets of
vle 15 theX Mill do not keep cattle, like the shifting cultivator Me'en However, the
" with smallholdings unless Le is m
has b^T °' C^' ^
c
ens goats kept by both groups has increased At the same time, coffee
Private h d°pted as a cash crop by small farmers in the forest regions as an expression ot
a
°nlv beeei'e'°PrTient the coffee market on a small and large scale Maize has apparently 
A; a mark ^ °'
r
Vn as a staple crop bv the Majanger in the last three decades (Tippett 1968)
tht ibilu Cr tbe frend towards a more homogenised culture in the south-western highlands, Market a[Lt0 chanS^ reveals even the most traditional societies' desire to respond to the
assimilate the cultural influence of more powerful groups.
^as nnt r ®reaier disposable cash, it is possible that a conflict may develop in the future ^hand.. CG nore than twenty vears ago in the Kefa region) between the drive to acquire 5y :t>e tiutCmaintenanc« of a balanced diet (Orent 1970). The struggle could be exacerbated ^ced aS'°n Of male labour outside traditional settlements, and the result would be t e
Ss °* omen (the main cultivators and domestic producers) to agneu tura
w
mpu
TAAl^ULGT ^Akol
ai W River Basin lnicgr^d t^dopmenl
3B-3
PlanSOCIO-ECONOMICS ANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHN1C GROUPS \\Al
and markets. This could be serious in the event of a famine or drought, particularly the most vuinerabl e groups, the non-cattie b feeders.
2 4 Staple Food for Subsistence
&
In these subsistence culttire. source is grams (maize ano so a the southern highlands brom women which will then be d
but it also has a nutritional role
mitures of the highland region and the lowlands, the major
- lemented by tubers, ensete and godere (taro), a
nutmi0M|
beef made from maize) is
make
mo re pleasurable on communal wk
i
5imp y fin lhe slornach ln
cultural tenns h
of reciptSl labour exchange and the communal wort *
Gambelans say of themselves that they "drink food" in the form of beer, The Majanger (who are shifting cultivators) say the same In ecological terms, grain beer may be seen as a way of converting raw maize to digestible maize without the need for cooking and the consumptive use of an energy source like firewood In ethnically homogeneous cultures, the cultivation of grain for subsistence and the preparation of beer are both economically and socially strategic for the community In light of the policy of agricultural intensification and the trend away from communal labour pools to waged labour, however, grain beer should be seen as a socio economic incentive to agricultural production which would probably cease to exist if subsistence cultivation is transformed into capital intensive farming,
2.5 Perceptions of Wealth
croDs^^ffTplif^011*15 V? ^' ® agro-ecological
rn
livelihoods are cultivating more diverse
and re« St r ’
for nlouvhino and r nti Amongst the highland Oromo, cattle are reearded as essential " g la?d “d wealth is "»«“red in terms of cattle owmed In
u
.' naJ0' dlffe'e""al be~«" ^ups -
mom cattle bejd” tow™ 
T3'1'1 f°’ "'ca' has ako dev'fopnd which will promote ever, * am°°SS' ’h0Se wh° hlve a“ess “ S^"S “d *'
reach ”f
combmed with'WeiItI- acciu” to Ihe lowland Nuer. As cattle-breeders, milk (od"
W s ’ “ns,nu,B “»
cmns n hm^„r7 T" ? X
ar
component of the Nuer diet These agr»;
3,nou"‘5 of livable la"d »hil=h >° «KW
>™bles N“" populaiiom m
survive W ithm the lowlands, cattle are perceived bv both the caltle-brecd.no Nuer and foe
1 underear■ r L TJ
e
are undercapitalised, they are particularly vulnerable to the risk of drought and famine cau^
SnlTr ? t Unreliablc rajnfa11 Though they are well adapted to their partial*
ecological niche by not over exploiting the natural resources of the area they lack the
>lik' “,he
,eS- ca5h rich and lhc*’
-pint, Xme Hom the
POT. The fact is that as the -Anuak
“ re$erVeS and C°nvertible “Pital the Nucf
44
d«ive from cattle herding to with* "
TAMS-ULG Baro-Aknbci River Basin Integrated Development Mostcr Flan
3B-4ANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHNIC GROUPS ANALYSIS
Cende "' Ag ’
1 r ctJ^,,r"c arM*,he Domestic Economy
ductivity of rural women in Ethiopia is currently under great stress due to the Tfc PS# women face in managing the multiple demands of an agricultural role, an difficult1 - ^e and a domestic role Throughout our survey, two interventions were
^ononii-. ‘
fec|ues
ted: water points and grain mills. These time and energy-saving devices 
‘ cTlS,S^] to facilitating their tripartite role.
oment the effectiveness of the Ethiopia institutions currently promoting development
the m
j s Opep to question Women have limited access to productive resources
livestock, credit or extension services though it is envisaged that under the revitalised
Co-operative scheme and through the PA's, women should become able to receive
^"earmarked for women's on-farm and off farm activities 
f 4D: has noted that it is vital to enhance the productive role of women as the major food roduccrs in developing countries and the ones who generate a large part of the family's cash
income (1993 15) A rura^ poverty mapping survey (conducted as part of the study) identified the impoverished state of rural women, often traumatised through war (in addition io small land holdings and overcrowding) as one of the primary factors contributing to the state of poverty in Ethiopia. In Gambela region in particular, the number of widow heads of households is staggeringly high as a result of the continuous decades of war in the region (Gambela Needs Assessment Survey, 1993 j Ln many polygamous households of the highland regions of the Baro-Akobo basin, women are responsible for the cultivation of field crops once ihe land has been cleared and felled The implications of intensification should be considered separately by planners in situations where people cultivate land communally (e.g. Anuak) as distinct from communities in which wo men solely cultivate cleared plots.
h the IFAD study, several specific recommendations were made to rectify' this situation
* First, post- production processing should be considered as pari of the farm system and taken into account in terms of labour and time needed as this sector is usually dealt with by women
Secondly, the transition from subsistence to surplus means reversing the traditional biases which favour the urban over the rural sector and cash crops over food crops through the provision of interventions like grain mills and collective woodlots, alternative sources of water, and appropriate technology for food processing
Thirdly; women must be given rights to land tenure and access to credit ana Fourth, there should be planning for agricultural development with women
and
sender division of labour in the Basin amongst ethnic groups, both highland
and mark-11 *^e close involvement of women in crop cultivation, production, transport
t.7iire
implications of these recommendations should form the basis tor the
- naitnc planning of interventions through Participatory Rural Appraisal
Sla ie of Worj7"^~---------------
r ftQra] Poverty - A profile for Africa
Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated D^etopircin Master Plan
3B-SSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3B SOClO-ETHNic firn
------
2.7 Traditional Social NehsorksJ
Tradn.on^l social £S“‘ ltv They could be considered as a form of
4
^ *UySr
are directed to mutual support without which i d;,.-, 
n
tardly swwe m,ta'
^^^"nyandlntbeBasin StVse^esourKS piling 
""" (Mmm“W '°an)
' ot muIual support coesust in the rural areas, the ft?” where the contributions of each memb„
« Idir » : is one of the mostly spread traditional social institutions It provides various kj-
of support io members in times of death and mourning For that purpose, contributions are deposited in the hands of elected elders
Rc n
, ^'
«Iqub»: is a traditional forced savings scheme where members periodically pay u -t contribution to a pool The total amount is given to each member in turn, either by comma; agreement or by lot In addition to cash « iqub », women associations have commodictj based « iqub ».
« Senbete » and « Mahiber »: those associations are linked to the churches and the porati saint of each member As these institutions originate in religious faith, members have mu£ty very strong ties and mutual commitments. Members are monthly invited in tum by the tin of the saint’s feast day
« Shimgilna », « Shen go » or « Oda » (Oromo) is another rural community’s organiw which is directed to meditate conflicts between members. The elder members o -l association use traditional, sometimes very' intricate, mediation procedures, to solve co
In some areas, their role is so significant that the « shengo » could deal with cases as sent, as murder
SqU*~ FCkCT'^
------ —_ _ 
developmentmin ilEuuthi uijopi wl, a. Addis Ababaijulvjp9lan-
01 5 1
S-ULG BanvKkobo River Bisin Integrated Develop^ M* ** *
JB-6fO cto eCONO--^
ANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHN1C GROL PS ANALYSIS
3.1
M 4JOR ETHNIC groups of the area
Introduction
twenty-seven ethnic groups in the greater Baro-Akobo basin Despite their cultural
There are
. q they are linked together either by language or mode of cultivation. Groups in the __________ ______
-'^hwesTbelong to one of three major language groups,
So ’ he ancient Omoric group, (a language identified as one of the six Afro-Asiatic proto
* '^guages spoken by indigenous Gimira, Maji, Bench. Majanger, Sheko and Dime peoples and from which Ke fan a is derived).
the Cushitic (which includes Ororrunya. the language spoken by Oromos and related in origin to the language of the Afar-Somali group residing in the Red sea coast region) and thirdly,
• the Nilo-Saharan group which spans both the languages of the indigenous Bertha (or Benshangul). Gumuz, Liduk, Anfillo and Maa of the Northern regions of the basin (in Benshangul, BegL Gidame and Asosa weredas) and the language of the East Sudanic peoples, namely, rhe Anuak and Nucr of the Gambela plains (Fleming 1975)
The principal cattle raisers of the highland region are the Oromo, Macha Oromo, Sheko, Keficho and Shekicho, plus the Maji in the south The populous Oromo grow maize and sorghum with teff and maize as principal cash crops while the majority of the non-Oromo highland peoples are shifting cultivators who also engage in coffee growing, forest honey production and hoe cultivation of grains, predominantly maize and sorghum. The Keticho and Shekecho who live in the open woodland and farmland region near the Oromo grow teff, peas and beans as cash crops, while the Bench and other forest peoples grow maize, gcx/ere (taro) and enseie (false banana), the staple crop of the South West highland regions.
^■2 Index of ethnic groups
each^°U'ri® 'S an alphabetical index of ethnic groups, comprising basic information on ‘dent'fi ■ Ian^uaS spoken, mode of cultivation practised and area of settlement for
e
the m tlori and general mapping purposes A more detailed ethnographic description of
found Sl® '^
n
cant ^oups of the highland and lowland regions (denoted by asterisk*) may 
^der Section 4 Analysis and Mapping by Regions
_>>I/. ■
formerhj? * ^otlc people who live in Southwest Wollega, (Anfilo wereda) and were grains..*; n°LUTl as lhe ^att' Shangul They speak an East Sudanic language and cultivate
sin g hoes
^tury an^' a ^°tic people who migrated into the Gambela plains from Sudan in the 17th ’htig the B SPCak Antiak, an East Sudanic language As subsistence agriculturists, they live 1 Sec°[’d rahrf’J'"1'3’ SWro’ Alwero and Akobo rivers, cultivating flood recession maize plus 1 d‘8ging stick f Cr°P though they were cartie breeders, they now have few cattle They use
tn some areas, hoes) In addition co fruit trees, they raise chickens and goats ^MS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master PlanSQC10-EC0N0M.es
ANNEX 38 SOHO-ETHNIC
in some ras They also engage io hunting and fishing to supplement their die| during the dry season.
fle-A (also called Gumuz or the pejorative term. amp//a> are a Nilotic people who lived in the Abbay region between Jebel Fazughli and Agew Midir in Gcjian, T * )' migrating io Wollega They speak a Nilo-Saharan language, Bega- ts'e, and live wereda towards Asosa in BenshanguL/Oromiya In 1981, their population in VY u
^krly
17
ol
lO.Qflfl as opposed to 1 5 million Oromos (V allmark 1981), The Bega are cultival
1
grain who practise shifting cultivation using a digging stick. According to their °rs °-
division of labour, women are responsible for cultivation of crops while men clear the fa*
and prepare it for planting
The richest fields are along the river banks, planted with cotton, tobacco, peanuts and ma'
though the Bega also grow sorghum, finger millet, mg, beans, pumpkins, onions and spi«5
using intercropping techniques. Goats, sheep, chickens, donkeys and dogs are kept ay 
animals are considered to denote wealth They habitually use work parties called jia*Q
(which may include women) to clear and cultivate, construct houses, fish and hunt and
collect firewood
Bench* are a Omotic people (sometimes called Bcncho) related to the Dizi and Gimm peoples of the same region They' live in the mountainous Gurrafarda. Gimira and Temenjyi Yazhi weredas near Mizan Teferi and speak Gimira (or Bench). As agro-pastoralists, they grow godere (taro), maize, sorghum and other garden vegetables as staples, with coffee, bananas, mango and papaya as their main cash crops They use oxen for ploughing when they are able Women cultivate the vegetable gardens and lake produce to market while nei clear the land for cultivation and do ploughing, occasionally with oxen
Berta (Bertha) are still called Beni Shangul as if their name was derived from Arabic Thcr name actually means the "embodiment of the spirit of the ancestors" and they comprise r large group of Nilotic peoples including Anfillo, Mao, Gumuz and Bega living in the Ben Shangul/Oromiyya and Beni Shangul regions As shifting cultivators, they sro» predominantly maize and cabbages, using a hoe for cultivation. The Bega/Gumuz stra ( the Abbay basin, living on the border of the Baro-Akobo region and cultivate cer vegetables, sesame and tobacco (See Bega, Gumuz).
~ f f he Chai peoples (also cdled Shew) live to the west of the Omo in the very southern POHlL°.o:c
Baro-Akobo basin (Tirma Tid) and are also known as the Tid They speak an
language related to Bench and practise shifting cultivation.
, 3*F Dime people live south of Dima on the southern fringes of the basin and speak D
Omotic language They similarly are engaged in hoe cultivation of grains and
Dizi people a.e closely related to the Bench people in culture, language and regjc^
techniques They live south of Maji and speak Dizi. They are included in
development plan for the Bench region (SEP AR)
\igrnt Fulaia (Fulani) people are nomadic pastoralists who have migrated from
(Kano) into fhe region and are only temporarily resident in Gambela They cu^ Nufr af> the open savannah grassland between Gambela and Itang, which is not occupied [e Anuak due to ns mstan.ee from the river banks The Fulaia have hugejierdsj^^
Baiin integrand DcveiopANNEX 3B SOCIO-E'T-EHTNHICN GICROUPS ANALYSIS
ved m from the Bench. Sheko and Mao languages) They live in the region formerly er >Ti as Kefa near Wushwush (on the cusp of the Baro-Akobo basin) and as a result of this 
-oximitv, Kefa mores and culture have influenced Keficho, Sheko and Shekicho societies Hie Kefa use hoes and other agricultural implements for cultivation including ploughs, and fertilise the ground by pasturing cattle and sheep on the fields Women cultivate tubers, vezeiables. spices, and process food. Men slash and bum the forest for cultivation, and plant ense/e and leff- The conflict arising from the push to acquire consumer goods has led to increased cultivation of cash crops such as coffee as opposed to subsistence crops, which xcrnld maintain a balanced diet Unlike the majority of highland groups, the Kefa were converted to Orthodox Christianity in the 16th century.
Keficho^ are shifting cultivators who live in the Keficho zone near Masha (SEPAR region) ind speak Keficho. Women are the main cultivators of teff, beans and peas as cash crops, while men manage the clearing of forest and the valuable beehives The Keficho are pelygynous but the economic value of a daughter is recognised Wives collaborate tn sharing the tasks of cultivation and livestock breeding to reduce their workload
Koma are a Nilotic people who speak Koma and live in West Wollega and the Gambela
ragion. along the northern reaches of the Baro river towards the junction of the Sobat and the
aro Originally from the highlands, the Koma arrived in the lowlands in the late nineteenth
Ce ntury tn take up river bank cultivation and have since intermarried with Anuak,
(3.1 so known as Masengo or A/asongoy practise shifting cultivation as well as 
fo-est^ Th^ Woup ’ , Inland"
es
roo,s an^ honey production in a large expanse of the rain
\ ^ca^ Mesengo (an Omotic language) and are part of the Suri, Surma, Mekan
f°rest and escarpment west of Met! near Tepi down to Gog in the
then- CV ^0 not keep cattle and so inhabit the tsetse fly infested altitudes away from ’«came C|I reedin8 adve—- rsa------r--i-e” s Some Majangcr haveJVXJse3JQ.tiltJled near to Men in settlements to
0Ser t0 ^rban amenities and markets
ot Oromo over the last few centuries. Thev are also hoe cultivators of grains
lld re81rd ti? i SpCak Or0ininya They live in hilltop homesteads on the highland plateau,
Baru-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plansocio-economics
ANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHNIC GROUP
------- -------------------- — — - J^NAV:
Sis
other shifting eulnvators. they use a rotation system where two-thud, of the .
fallow and one thud cultivated at any one time Canle «'regarded as vital f
soil as well as draught power. As the land passes to the first bom son and lhe„T’"> »< in succession, there has been a movement away from the land to urban em„| iouZ^nh as a result of access to education (Hultm, 1987)
.
«tl
ra »l°»em *
Mocha* live in the former Kefa region and speak Mocha or Mochinya (a languace Ke fa) (Ste Stick; cho I
Me'en* in the Baro-Akobo basin, specifically the Tishana- Me'en. speak Sun
related language) and live in the forest south of Bebcka towards the grasslands of
of the Omo river This group of agro-pastoralists arc also known as Suri Mgfan Ww
Me'emt) The Tishana-Me’en moved up to the highlands from the lowlands during thTi ° century to pursue hoe cultivation of grains though some still have retained their beehiv h in the lowlands As a consequence of their proximity to the forest, they cultivate godfrf maize for food, along with tobacco and honev as cash crops They no longer keep cattle
rc a[^ it
Niter* are Nilotic peoples who migrated from Southern Sudan to Gambela region in the century They speak an East Sudanic language like the Anuak and are primarily cattle breeders though they practice flood recession cultivation on the Baro river. The main?. Ethiopian Nuer inhabit the Itang and Jikaw regions on the southern banks of the Baro rive where they maintain two encampments, one permanent and one temporary'. Nuer refugees from the civil war in southern Sudan are currently ensconced al the UNHCR camps at Din and Fugnido on the Akobo river.
Oromo* people (formerly known as Galla) speak Orominya (an East Cushitic language) arc live in Oromiya, now Region 4 Cattle ownership is important amongst the Oromo - defining social prestige, for ploughing and for fertilising the land before cultivation Mijff crops grown are leffy maize, barley, sorghum, millet, and wheat, chick peas, onions, garb pepper, pumpkins (cash crops coffee, red pepper, citrus, sugar-cane, oil seeds, chat, cotte bananas and some spices) The Oromo keep horses, donkeys, sheep, goats, dogs, cats - fowl
Shai people (also called Chai) speak Gimira and live in the Gesha mountains.
Shekicho* speak Shekicho (an Omotic language related to Kefanya) and liv€ Anderacha and Yeki in SEP AR region They are cattle breeders and cultivator5
(the staple food) maize, taro and beans Living in close proximity to alpine bam they practise shifting cultivation using both hoes and ploughs, and raise sheep, b chickens.
speak Sheko (an Omotic language like Gimira) and live between Jepi^,, U estem part of the mountain range ofGurrifarda in Sheko wereda. Bench zon farm work (hoe cultivation of crops such as millet, maize, teff and coffee) andI are -
$
1 arid
pOl^ ■*
t
for keeping sheep, cattle and chicken Hunting is practised only by those
considered to be sub-castes of the Sheko
• jjye it ,
■S-"™ P“Pfr (also called T,ma) speak Scrmx and are agro-pastorali^ "“sWitlt**i lowlands between lie .Akobo and Erbu rivers, south of Dima They cultivate gr
TAMS-ULG BarrwAkobo River Buin Integrated Devtkp^n^^ Pl’0
5B-10
1
JANNEX 3B S0CI0-ETHN1C GROUPS ANALYSIS
Uduk P °P
e
originally from Sudan from Khor Amars on Yabus river to the west of c ft r a brief stay in hang in 1992. they have now established semi-permanent
j^os» ljUt. UNHCR camp Bonga by the Baro river and will not return to Sudan in the
^ideticy 10 'The estimated camp population is 17,000 ) The Uduk are a Nilotic people who ^tirulture As a result of their rime in Sudan and interactions with the Fulata
practise a# Arabic as well as their own Nilo-Saharan language Since they have been
1
-jeople.
? jvenlirie * se llitie coom
to cultivate, they are compelled to survive on grain provided by UNHCR By
q.|
a ^|e t0
huv her foods 
ol
consumer goods They are keen
st jck5 and Lrained saluki dogs to catch game and as they enjoy fish,
hunters. u^s huge Nile perch on a wholesale basis from local Anuak fishermen
There is no alternative fuel source so women are forced to walk long distances for firewood in this area As a result, much of the forest has been depleted over time Women also collect wild roots, mushrooms, barks, and fruits from the forest to supplement the family diet and are responsible for carrying and transporting goods in general The Uduk are suspicious of traders and do not think trading is an honourable activity, as a result of which, they have not developed any interest in entrepreneurship As with the Bega, the Uduk do not pay bride wealth
^S-ITLG Baro-xkubn River Basin integrated Development Muter Plan
3B-11ANN EX 3B SOCIO-ETHNIC GRoVPS . .. --- --------------------- -- ---------
r
4 . analysis by region
4J Lowlands
V./J /InwflA
The Anuak are traditional agriculturists who have taken advantage of thei
Biro. Akobo, Gilo and Shiro rivers to cultivate flood recession crops in add Proxittlit}' io th. plot Living above the levee, they rely on cultivating the same field h Ul°n t0 a rWec from the rains before the river floods and one after the flood recedes acctTri^1 Ollf (1980). As sedentary cultivators with no cattle, however, the Anuak F t0 Ostsllnc conservative and vulnerable of groups in the lowlands, with little evide reniain thc W lifestyle despite their shrinking resource base Due to the pressures of mod^ chan?e in
engaged in cultivating more fruit crops, selling fish, foraging for wi|d°nllm
artisanal gold mining to supplement their cash needs. .Amongst5he capital-poor An°
are not kept and therefore the bride-price is calculated in cash, a coTnmaditvdff ?
acquire Although daughters are seen as a financial asset to parents, the value of th/h-
price in some cases may induce parents to contract daughters in marriage for the «nr“' purpose of repaving debts, a negotiation in which the daughters have no pan
The Anuak formerly cultivated sorghum as lhe main crop but now grow maize and nulls, supplemented by yams, beans, pumpkins, cucumbers, castor oil beans, tobacco, wmjk kapok, oil seed and fruit crops (bananas, mangoes and papayas) According to the division s labour .Anuak women are responsible for cultivation, collecting, and preparing mod wtit men cleat and prepare land, occasionally selling locally grown tobacco and snuff Both «*» and women enjoy leisure together in the communal area, smoking reefers and water pipes sitting on antelope skins by preference, a sign of their continuing interest in hunting
provide for their domestic and ritual needs. As a result of the SPLA's incursions iiw ‘ < Gambela plains over the last decade, the amount of game available to supplemerh J “
’*
P®
e
r,
beer, severely depleted and this has caused acute food shortages amongst tn® population in particular,
expand their areas oft-sVr programme to hl fZ eQ agriculture] expertise
dowm from father to in, this be sustained. Small-scale i™ security in the lowland plah^f
^ Orn knowledge of modem agricultural techniques -
Th<? NGO’ AC0KD in G^mbeia haS
schcmes Bonga and Okuna to provide mp- *° facilhate the P^cess As fruit trees are
antat^on could also be developed if the high p . P0*3^ diesel-operated pumps could
produce However, the Jurr~f WCfe “^-effective and a local market waS
the region would have to be -urberf110611^610
maize are critically needed^T^' ^'v’n8 *n remote villages, grinding 1
createc^ ^-v r^e sur^e!t °
-t*r
ano beer parties are still the fn /er P ^
ro
uclIon since hand pounding is too ia °
1111 atlon f° collective agricultural
r
labour
3B-J2socio^i—S
ANNEX JB SOCIO-ETHNIC GROUPS ANALYSIS
.j2
The^
re pre-eminently cattle-breeders but they also cultivate flood recession maize and 'j1ich’licra sUpplenient their diet of milk and blood These cattle are jointly owned by 
^S
r
hU ^ n£| a son may ’borrow' cattle from his father to pay the bride-price They co-exist as 
fitnd’eS pacing cattle in a common kraal in the centre of their settlement They also
a
othfir in t me5 o
i f difficulty with reciprocal gifts, as witnessed in February '96
suPP0^^ ^-ucr arrived in refugee camps in Itang without herds and were given food by * ncre ^(Ojtiours. The Nuer recognise that they are relatively immune to famine by
rting lame her^s cattle ancI Prefcr™1® a diet of ™lk- especially if there is drought or ^^Nevertheless, their herds can suffer from shortage of water during the dry season Land
*
ar is a contentious issue with the indigenous Anuak from whom they have acquired
'min river bank land and the government to whom they do not pay the standard tax for cultivation They supplement their diet by hunting, ’wild roots and seeds, wild dates {Wcmrries aeygyptica), seeds and roots of water lilies, wild rice, bush-yams and seeds of w ld sorghum and other grasses ’ (attested by Evans-Pritchard 1940 but this data must be updated tn the further studies e g PRA)
Ln Itang. Nuer nationals form a self-contained group in that they are more or less self- sufficient in milk, their staple food and maize which they grow on flood recession land As a community, they comprise indigenous Nucrs who have lived in Ethiopia for most of their lives and the Nuer who have migrated to Ethiopia from Sudan (mainly from a town called Nasir) and are considered to be Sudanese nationals. These Sudanese Nuer youth commonly speak Arabic and English not Amhanc. (Formerly, all Nuer were designated Ethiopian although they resided much of the year on the Sudanese side of the river, only coming to Ethiopia for grazing several months a year. Since that time, the border has been and remains permeable)
The Nuer who have crossed the river from the war zone in Sudan are deemed to be refugees n they cross into Ethiopia without cattle. Other are not considered to be refugees, according lc i c head of the Nuer transit camp near the outskirts of Itang The Nuer have a social
^ ,STeTn which embraces people without cartie so they are not in danger of starvation, edu UCr y0111*1 frQrn Sudan (Nasir) as well as the nationals say that they wish to pursue their ^cation m English language to be able to get good jobs in the future These same youth are a cros$ h° fretair,'ri® Some traditional practices such as "banding" (the incision of lines 
er t
w ith ar ' orehead) f°r their children as they seem keen to adapt to a more urban lifestyle educatio^ l° modeni clothes and amenities Others, even with high (Grade 9 plus) ’livino K- .?VC taEen up the traditional life of a pastoralist and migrate with their cattle,
8 tree they described it.
The Nuer
children and1^'^ ^ave l^ree h°uses one’ 3 bedroom, the second, a separate house for the of lumber Gfd thlrd’ lhe latchct1; Therefore, population should not be estimated on the basis 
ra ther than ° ’
Per hut. The largest thatched hut in a Nuer settlement is a cattle pen,
Sc
cess d des^Q«l for human habitation According to informants, flooding causes
v,I lage , ern for the Nuer settlements parallel to the Baro river as the flood cuts off the ^ tVe consist' C>tOwn °f hang but this can be circumnavigated without due problem They ! IttCrrnarryin Cni y shown a high degree of adaptability and capacity for compromise by aesPite the r the Anua^ on the Baro, Sobat and Pibor rivers over the last few decades ^Petition tk L°nai enmities common to cattle herders and agriculturists and the bitter
s^den river banks
TaMS-ULG Riro-Akubo River Basin Integrated Bodopment Mister Plan
3B-13SOCIO-ECONOMIC5
4 analysis BY REGION
4.
4.1 Lowland’
41.1 Anuak
The Anuak arc traditional agriculturists who have taken advantage of their n
Baro. Akobo. Gilo and Shiro rivers to cultivate flood recession crops in addid"’'’* ,Osl* plot Living above the levee, they rely on cultivating the same field harv 'Dtl l° 3 rat®«l from the rains before the river floods and one after the flood recedes, accordX^ °ne (1980). As sedentary cultivators with no cattie. however, the Anuak re0® t0 ®I,erA‘c conservative and vulnerable of groups in the lowlands, with little evidence13'? lifestyle despite their shrinking resource base Due to the pressures of modern engaged in cultivating more fruit crops, selling fish, foraging for wild plants'^
•
ar!
artisanal gold mining to supplement their cash needs. Amongst'the capital-poor A?0^ ** are not kept and therefore the bride-price is calculated in cash, a commodity diff X acquire Although daughters are seen as a financial asset to parents, the value of the b'? price in some cases may induce parents to contract daughters in marriage for the eX purpose of repaving debts, a negotiation in which the daughters have no part
The Anuak formerly cultivated sorghum as the main crop but now- grow maize and millet supplemented by yams, beans, pumpkins, cucumbers, castor oil beans, tobacco, sesrae kapok, oil seed and fruit crops (bananas, mangoes and papayas) According to the division :-; labour, Anuak women are responsible for cultivation, collecting, and preparing food whk
men clear and prepare land, occasionally selling locally grown tobacco and snuff. BoLbwc and women enjoy leisure together in the communal area, smoking reefers and water pipes am sitting on antelope skins by preference, a sign of their continuing interest in hunting " provide for their domestic and ritual needs As a result of the SPLA's incursions into I*
Gambela
u---------------- - °
plains over the last decade, the amount of game available to supplement dtos 
beer, severely depleted and this has caused acute food shortages 
____ __ —
amongst
noct tbe W
population in particular
their areas nf ------------------------------ WPruolgturanml *me to h ln /a,n"fed cultivatiwonith „edi, d °U71 from father to o?’1Cll'niproveti seeds to
e
AC<M> » G™bela has deveiup^ -
’*---------------
Bonga Okuna to provide iop^
be ^stained. Small-^ thls.tJ'Pe of plantation llaiC the Process As fruit trees are P^';
’ecunty |0WrJ . f lm’gati
0I) us n
| nonah?^ a*S° bc deve,oPed & lbe hi$h
produce. However th? Pw«re co« ^d'ezel-operated pumps could ensure
the regJon wouJd haVeh?aTvc®"
’o be CurhM to grow grain created by lhe sjrfeit of foOd
1 ^centive t^*™^ and 3 Iocal market was
LG BaroAkubo River Basin Integrated Dcvelopnjent
JB-12socio^f^1^
ANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHNIC GROUPS ANALYSIS
' M are pre-eminently cattle-breeders but they also cultivate flood recession maize and T ie, m to supplement their diet ot milk and blood These cattle are jointly owned by 
l s aT][j a son may borrow cattle from his father to pay the bride-price They co-exist as 
■'T-,. ,
^'llective pacing carlie in a common kraal in the centre of their settlement They also 3 C° rt each other in times of difficulty with reciprocal as witnessed in February '96
some Nuer arrived in refugee camps in Itang without herds and were given food bv '^neighbours. The Nuer recognise that they are relatively immune to famine by
LheU orting la^ herds of cattle and preferring a diet of milk, especially if there is drought or
P Nevertheless. their herds can suffer from shortage of water during the dry season Land i^caure is a contentious issue with the indigenous Anuak from whom they have acquired certain river bank land and the government to whom they dp not pay the standard tax for cultivation They supplement their diet by hunting, ’wild roots and seeds, wild dates (ta/emrft« aeygyptieci), seeds and roots of water lilies, wild rice, bush-yams and seeds of mid sornhum and other grasses.’1 (attested by Evans-Pritchard 1940 but this data must be jpdated in the further studies e.g. FRA).
Ln Itang, Nuer nationals form a seif-contained group in that they are more or less self- sufficient in milk, their staple food and maize which they grow on flood recession land .As a community, they comprise indigenous Nuers who have lived in Ethiopia for most of their lives and the Nuer who have migrated to Ethiopia from Sudan (mainly from a town called Nasir) and are considered to be Sudanese nationals. These Sudanese Nuer youth commonly speak Arabic and English not Amharic (Formerly, all Nuer were designated Ethiopian although they resided much of the year on the Sudanese side of the river, only coming to Ethiopia for grazing several months a year Since that time, the border has been and remains permeable )
The Nuer who have crossed the river from the war zone m Sudan are deemed to be refugees 
L they cross into Ethiopia without cattle Other are not considered to be refugees, according lL the head of the Nuer transit camp near the outskirts of Itang The Nuer have a social
system which embraces people without cattle so they are not in danger of starvation
e , up youth from Sudan (Nasir) as well as the nationals say that they wish to pursue their
not 1011 *n
language to be able to gel good jobs in the future. These same youth are
icios^R011 retain*nB some of Lhe traditional practices such as "banding" (the incision of lines *ithSS 1 * ^Ore’iead) for their children as they seem keen to adapt to a more urban lifestyle tducau^^ t0 rnoderT| clones and amenities Others, even with high (Grade 9 plus) "living t avc ta^en up the traditional life of a pastoralist and migrate with their cattle,
^ ,n8 fr« ’as they described it
t hi!dreVLid'lia^- ^aVC '^iree houses: one. a bedroom. lhe second, a separate house for the
of numbe e
the kitchenl Therefore, population should not be estimated on the basis
,ath=r th^ peoPle Per hut The largest thatched hut in a Nuer settlement is a cattle pen,
411 ac
cess * h Se desi8ned for human habitation According to informants, flooding causes 
''huge &o rC>K m die Nuer settlements parallel to the Baro river as the flood cuts off lhe
hsve ccnsi*1 tOWn
hut '^s can be circumnavigated without due problem They
IIlteTnianx^
lentl y
. shcn™ a high degree of adaptability and capacity for compromise by 
desP>te th^ Mth the Anuak on the'Baro, Sobat and Pibor rivers over the last few decades 
^PetiTinn radltional enmities common to cattle herders and agriculturists and the bitter
riv 'r 'Mnks
t AMS-ULC BarcAkobu River Bwin Imearaled Drvdopmui Muter PlanSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3BSOClO-ETHMCe^ --------------------------
SIS
The pastoral Nuer are not in favour of sedentarization because thev th-
of the potentiality of the land to support life, then "all the land" will n 'k?1 *‘U be used now. for summer pastures and flood recession cultivation both° T U5ed 15 it* theirs is an eminently practical use of both types of land for gaining * f°r
On inquiring about how they acquire land if they need land, they sav SLCCessftjl subs/
from the Anuaks. a further indication that some Anuak are willinc * i
t
pur ch^'C<
order to pursue more cash-onented occupations such as fishing or P’n of theirb
issue is a thorny one since they lay claim to the land they occupy but '"'"S 1116 *«nd r does not recognise their claim to ownership as they do not pay taxes'** ’S*'
say they do not pay taxes since the government does not give’them land" The V
that the dispute centres around what constitutes the basis for agro-pastoralists who do not 'own' land.
4. J. 3 Ethnic Tensions
SUppl* >ndic», ”«nunity taxation amc^
There has been fierce and often bloody competition for land amongst the Anuak and the X for decades Although the Nuer were the latest migrants to the area in the 19th century squeezed the Anuak out of their land in the 1900's As wealthy agropastoralists who
convert cattle to cash at will, the Nuer have exerted their economic dominance over the
.Anuak. buying their land and exploiting their ambivalent position as cross-border refugees
Intermarriage, nevertheless, has taken place between the three riverine peoples within tk region, Anuak. Nuer and Koma. culminating in a greater integration of all three Tht willingness to share and reciprocate gifts of food has been a salient feature of Nuer politico and social interactions in the Gambela plains for several decades and a possible reason fc their survival
Other ethnic tensions in the area relate tn
sedentary^ agriculturists and semi-seX ‘fi. C°®P?It,0D for ^al resources betwee iwween the 17,000 stronn refugee Udul- A bltter has already broken on valuable silt-laden banks of the Barn riv., ??U^!’On and the over access to *
from the highlands to the lowlands in
^ otlc ^oma agriculturists who migrare:
Ive ,n harmony with the Anuak Th ° century* have, however, been assimilatof nomads from the region between r k imrnedia,e expulsion of large numbers of Futo
Soveniment though the Arabic-sowH c
^ een requested by the regicu'
niche
tbeir fellow cattle-breeders the N L ,ata aPPear Io have cultivated good relations section of the grasslands nMr~ ’ 'habiting a different and apparently uniting patterns of shifting settlemem an/i ° Yam^*a’ ^ey do not challenge the Nuer tradition
“d ngh,s grazing and thus fill an appropriate ecology*
tradjtjonal enmities exist whin^ d^erent areas of the lowlands for good reason an» ® regional council is composed^f k’°Ially CrUpt in active confrontation and bloo**
uneasy state of affairs prevail? fbOth
Nucrexecutive positions,
________ _________ ______ _______________________ ___ Pl^ TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Devetopm«nt Ma
3B-14ANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHNIC GROUPS ANALYSIS
' 2 fljgbKnd Forest and Escarpment
flew*
-h are subsistence shifting cultivators who depend to a large extent on godere (taro)
'heBen^
crop5 gr(wn inc[ude cassava
^
te ff barley, maize.
^uJtiva -j|e[^ fjuit crops (bananas, mangoes, oranges, pineapple, lemons, papayas, and
sorghum. ^^arcanc arl(j ginger The Bench also eai laxho from the erisete stem and bida, the
1 0Cd ensete from the root, as staples in addition to gonam (indigenous cabbage) Injera is 
^ ul £
qm majze as is local beer (barde) and araqi. Coffee, chai and banana are the main
^th'crops and the traditional practice is the intercropping of ensete plus coffee to increase yields and provide shade or coffee plus taro, chat, banana and other fruits (papaya and
■nan o') Stock raising is important for the Bench as livestock is considered a capital Tivestment Cattle, sheep, goats and chickens are raised though cattle are mainly used for rtcals and payments to the kallicha traditional healers
Wild coffee is the main cash crop, grown near the homestead along with other vegetables The beans are sold and an infusion from the coffee leaves is drunk from preference Bench women are in charge of marketing and buy salt, pepper, sugar and clothes from the market when they have sold some produce in exchange, otherwise, they do not buy. The cost of transport by mule to Mizan and back (approximately 30 kilometres return) is 6 Birr, an expense which is not justified by the selling price of the produce so only small quantities are bought and sold. According to women, transport is a major problem for them as they do the marketing and are responsible for grinding maize They must walk for ai least 30 to ‘10 minutes to reach the nearest grinding machine and this impairs their ability co gain more income from local drink production. In the area visited, (a roadside village 15 kilometres b’oni Mizan Tefari) women produce horde (like tella beer) and araqi which they sell for profit but no rej as they do not have hives To supplement the diet, women also gather mushrooms and wild fruits.
'Wording to informants, most families have only one cow, though sheep and occasionally 
be 316
price of a cow ranges from 600-1200 Birr and is considered by the poor
cow ,prOhibitively expensive. Share cropping is done if a family is able to borrow a second
? 1.Ou®*^ 8 but as the resulting crop must be shared with the owner, a poor family may 
n
is lent b Qot achieving subsistence A system of milk-sharing is also common. If a cow owner ] 0WTier to a tenant for grazing, the milk is shared but the calf reverts to the
c CVent °f drouSht or a scarcity of fodder, cattle are fed the residue from araqi w h: h is t
•st, led by women on a weekly basis.
one For DecM^ feaiure
Bench is that houses often have two doors, one for catlie and
Bridepav °P e S*nCe Cattle are housed indoors to protect them against baboons and hyenas 
fi*ed. Wo
^ajor tasks '
from 6-12 cows plus one cow to the bride1 s mother before the dowry is Rubricated by beer, are the main social mechanism for accomplish]ng
Water ^ing house construction and thatching. Women habitually collect firewood
ar] d used fcr w°od (atoizia schimperia) is used for firewood while eucalyptus is grown
instruction Wood is not considered to be in short supply
A focal sprin
‘ S applied fre HaS becn imProvcd in the village visited by Mekane Yesus As a result, water ^^^j^to^onsumers and no contributions are paid for maintenance of the structure
T AMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Buis Tutc^raled Development Muter Plan
3B • 154.22 Kef a
These coffee-growing people live in the fertile highlands in former Kefa, mainlv to th
the Baro-Akobo basin Coffee and wild rubber are the main cash crops plus a diverse numfe
r>— »i„k« k.»;„ fnfw »nd ui-ilri nihher are the main each
_ j. 116 ^Cf
of grains spices and vegetables barley, maize, millet, ensete, teff, beans, peas, lentils, iniq. black cumin, cabbage, cardamom, flax, garlic, nug, onions, potatoes, sweet potatoes tobacco, poppies, tomatoes, pepper as well as fruits, (bananas) sugarcane and cotta. (Huntingford 1956) Cattle grazing is managed by young boys and men while women make sorghum beer, honey-wine, milk and coffee (from beans) In Kefa culture, women do mt help in the fields Instead they grow and market spices (cardamom, fenugreek, and pepperi, tubers and medicinal plants According to the traditional division of labour, men plant the ensete but women reap it. The grains and the legumes are cultivated and tended by men
Under the oid system, land tenure was previously controlled by the king with the farmers ts tenants At that time, the major cash crops were coffee, cardamom, civet and ivory
In this hierarchical and stratified society, sub-groups or smiths perform those skilled tuU such as pottery-making, hunting, fishing, leather work and blacksmithing which trr considered to be demeaning
423 TheMajanger
' he Majanger are shifting cultivators who also practice hunting and gather honey huntrs i om hives deep in the forest* They occupy the escarpment west of Meti down to Gog. ’
of broad-te^
i»b?]lIhe'VCUl,ivate maue. sorghum1
............... r..........
- — ..rac aboJ.
,970’ the lotal P°Pulatl0n wes it>w;
intrnHpeppers Wh sesame, beans g W 'Cassava^ taro> vams and pumpkins, spice,
roduced circa 1970 were sw ’
puJscs catcn as complements NewtrtP
°*ers. mangoes, bananas and P01*10®’ cassava, ensete, banana and suga^3fi' *™“. mi papaya mvlNasecompounds
IS^Agnes 2 H Apiculture forded. 
TWILC
taejrattd
3B-16ANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHNIC GROUPS ANALYSIS
re of cultivation is the gradual harvest cycle. They produce two crops, the first, Of.® ju|y-October kate season on a mulch sorghum field Then seeds of sorghum and
dlJ fing
tn C
e fcroadcaSt (no weeding is done) on the fields named "gedi" and "bon1 The harvest
:tlJtZea|acc :ror ^oveniber -January and the yie|ds are expected " to last one year" takes P 3 ^ave a sesame field, and a gol field by the riverside which is planted late in the vIs 'anS 3Son with cither maize or sorghum, a total of five fields The swidden cycle starts as 
rest is cleared Land is judged to be losing fertility on a yearly basis as the volume of js ticreasc5 over the cycle. Therefore, in the minds of the Majanger, shifting cultivation
* t as a random and profligate process but as ”the shifting of a series of field types in a r ed sequence over space" with provision for renewal of the soil (Stauder 1970) The fallow rVod they believe to be 10 years, or 15 years for return of true forest growth Majanger ^rJements are normally surrounded by abandoned fellow lands. People are considered to
cw]1
the land they cultivate and have rights to the forest adjacent to their cultivations but there
s no concept of fixed abode. The only criterion for residence is that the Majanger believe it is very important to be within a 10-15 minute walk of a water source, usually a stream or river
The concept of community is defined for the Majanger by the expression 'those who share the same coffee" that is. those who "drink kari (coffee leaf infusion) together’1 (i.e the wild coffee plus red pepper, herbs, garlic, ginger, onions or salt as required) Bride wealth is paid for girls and girls move in with their husbands who stay at home
A larger social unit recognised by the Majanger is the group who "share the same beer'1 i e aot just their close neighbours but those friends in the larger circle on whom they could lepend for food (in this case, beer) Beer is regarded as food source by the Majanger as they ay n eases hunger Grain beer is prepared by women and used in work parties. As it is not customary for Majanger to trade or barter with each other, they sell honey to buy consumer gcods from Amhara. Oromo traders.
bumed^^011^
°f labour, women perform most of the cultivation after men have
others' d C’earec^ lbe ^anr’1 however, under duress, men and women will perform each
r -irvest U^!es Women dig with a stick, plant, weed, fend off baboons from the crops and cash c k alS° decide wbat 10 buy at the market on basis of the sales of their primary drink r^’ "oney Honey is not eaten (except by children) but instead, used to make the ritual
corisume ne'' v^ne'
Men make this wine while women prepare grain beer. .Among the
blades tobS°°^S b11? frQm tbe of honey are clothes, fish hooks, salt, beads razor acco and perfume. Coffee beans are also sold as a cash crop
the advent r v.
*ere disp& 1 Ot tbe c°ftee producers (Amhara and Oromo) in the nud-50's, the Majanger Mr investmeSSCd lheir land Antipathies to the habasha linger as a result. As a result of riPand cultv,Cn* 'n ^UtS and CroP$>the Majanger are not keen to migrate often, preferring to Their need f atlon tn 31635 closer to urban facilities like schools, markets and health clinics p J ’tini y 
:elds pre, lf hutS t0 ,he fores! is vital since the* bel‘eve thcy rausl live amongst their
j^fer to live^01 by baboons as do other forest dwellers For spiritual security, they 
r feials fot° their ritual experts known as tapa who resolve disputes and perform ? Ve clo^r T ltle community. If the land is depleted or water has become too distant, they 
0
n Of Lm.'®Tabon ‘s dependent most on rhe fecundity of the land in the vicinity. The
A, 'hough M i °
a
thc forcsi- taking advantage of its shelter and the proximity of game
may move their habitations over time, the hives placed in the forest do TamS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Devtdopment Master Plan
3B-17SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHNIC GROI
— 
- ------ -1^'LYMs
. move and are identified as belonging to a particula
r male owner
Snbution over larae areas (as much as 50 kilometres)
the hives are seldom ? "
roh
?e
Sm has exploited the abundance of land, the absence
of population °^
pres
d
system of shifting cultivation though there may well be
significant ramifi ' ? :t«
Catl
ad
Anuak in the lowlands 
Or :Le
■/. 2 / Ae Tishana Me en:
The Tishana-Meen are agropastoralists who have migrated up to the highlands north
the junctions ofOmo and Shonun rivers in the SEP AR region, land formerly oca??0f Kefa and Gimira Bench (Tippett 1970) Their population was estimated at'33]<.?'“
1984 census
Like the Majanger, the Me'en are shifting cultivators, with some reliance on honey hiv hunting and gathering of wild roots in the forest for subsistence As transhumant pastoral#- who lost their herds and are now agriculturists, they nevertheless retain a legacy of usiis cattle to bind friendships and in bride wealth The traditional system of cultivation includes j period of fallow which vanes according to the fertility of each area cultivated Howevt land is usually cultivated for 1-2 yean only and then abandoned .As an indicator of th success and sustainability of their system in the agro-ecological environment, it has beei noted that their field rotation system, choice of crops and food habits have been adopted by the incoming Amharas to the region (Abbink 1992 6). Ensete is not grown much, however, since it takes too long to mature (Tippett 1970) Instead, their staple food is maize porridge with teff and honey considered as cash crops. Their sustenance is derived from the abundance of forest and the strategy of shifting cultivation to new forest when the cycle demands it. Clearing of the forest is done by collective male labour organised around bee parties prepared from sorghum and maize and there is no traditional use of fertiliser
They are accustomed to moving backwards and forward in altitude (from 700 m tow
1600/2000 m Myna degaj since rainfall is highly unreliable though they prefer the M
1900 metre band "because sorghum, maize, pepper and garden plants mature quicker inl and game is plentiful" (Abbink 1992) Where the land is more fertile, level and free o
the Me’en practise ox ploughing (e g in the regions of Bach'uma, Ch'abara and
(ibid 21) Otherwise, clearing and cultivation are done by machete, digging sue
similar to that used by the Majanger, Sheko, Dizi and Bench) and hoe
•|j jgjVC-' The Me'en diet is supplemented by hunting of buffalo, antelope, wild fowls.
berries and mushrooms The pattern of cultivation is gender-ordered men c .
and bum the land through work parties, women then receive a piece of 811 .
D( n
j g and
husbands which they then are responsible for cultivating, they also assist m sowing, prepare food and beer, tend children and manage the vegetable - ^ ^^1
2
include beans, peppers, cabbage, spices, gourds or pumpkins, oil an
p r*
e
lfi
According to Abbink, the area of cultivated land has increased from 0.5 to " } recently, presumably for more reliable subsistence in face of population pressure
As elsewhere in Ethiopia, the Me'en prefer to live in clusters of households o huts, ranging from 10- to 80% people per cluster
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Mas,er
3B-18ANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHNIC GROUPS ANALYSIS
devastation of the active male population by the Derg corvee (hundreds of men put10 11 every year from 1975 to 1991), many households are headed by widows. Under
" fife 1 aYoital
sys ®^
1 however’ land's ownetf bV
’he person who clears the forest and this 
t« i'adl"^jvation is handed down to the eldest son (ibid ). The wife hoids no title to the
fiht ot c£h Rhe js the prime cultivator and manager of crop production In addition to her
■
r<1 hCd each wife has her own stores. This sexual division of labour, according to Abbmk,
^l^dto an increasingly powerful role of women in the household as manifest in the
1 tig ri°ht of women to choose marriage partners, Decision-making on cultivation, '^^ting and ceremonials is communal, however (Tippett. 1970)
cvete of cultivation is as follows. February'March (clearing l3urTung) March/April T lanting or sowing by men and women), .April to July and July to early September 'wteding) Children are required to stay in the fields and perform the vital task of guarding the crop from baboons
They engage in internal trading and mutual barter (eg cattle for grain, goats for honey). Their cash source stems from the sale of honey and livestock, not grain Currently, the Me'en buygtkfere (taro;gt-v/iofororay; ^distilled liquor), coffee leaves, salt, and pepper They sell tobacco, oil seed, honey, and produce from chickens. According to the traditional division of labour, honey wine is made by men, beer and araqi by women Women walk long distances W sell araqi and grain beer in the urban centres (e g Bifhi) as a cash generating activity. Honey is only consumed by children and the rest (not sold) is consumed as honey wine. No milk is consumed In times of drought when no forage or grazing is available, araqi residue is given to cartie.
The Me'en are small honey producers compared to the Majanger but some groups do some dtirying with 5-6 cows. Cattle are vital for marriage brokering as one cow is given after the ritual 'theft' of the bride to broker the deal. The remaining cows are paid over time,
wnomic change is evident as there is an increasing surplus of subsistence crops sold in -egional markets and the role of cattle correspondingly reduced (Abbink 1986)
<2 > Sheko
’o Shew*0/^* name for the ethnic group, language and area near Tepi) live in Tiliku Gesha
shiftin'** C™’ra on the road to Gibe. They' are cattle breeders in addition to practising
:he retirT1 l^at'Ori As a result of the prosperity gleaned from private coffee production in
“nsjmer S”el<0 l0Vm bas become highly urbanised with settler traders moving in to sell
fin
sers in^h°dS According to a local agricultural extensiorust interviewed during the study,
believe tt,e 1C 3164 have Uhat they do not want to use fertiliser on wild coffee since “they 
PT°bab> .l and's
• Tnat they do not). ^sarbv in T
(It >s not clear if thev sprav their coffee with herbicides but it is
into taT wholesale market for private coffee producers Here they convert their
^Ulh Of
^d buy grain imported into the area from Jitnma. The coffee plantations Pickin' 3ttTact lar^e numbers of seasonal migrant labourers from the highlands for
Shel:'cho ]ab8’ in addition to providing daily wage employment for Majanger, Sheko and
NMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Bxsin Integrated Devdoptnent Master PlanSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHN1C GROUps
4.3 Open Woodlands and Farmland
4.31 Keficho
The Keficho are acriculturists who specialise in beans and peas as cash cr n
Q
s;n
honey production. The hives used by the Keficho are hollowed-out logs divfoJddltLon b smoothed by fire To avoid the destructive habit of burning the trees to bnruj d
they lash the two pieces of log together with a rope When they wish to
harv 7,'
e
** u v'5
they pull on the ropes the and the hives descend As with the Shekicho, they clear f ■'
cultivation using slash and bum techniques 
J Oc«t
Co-wives amongst the Keficho co-operate with each other in sharing cultivation and j> rearing so as to reduce their work load and gain mutual benefits. In this cuIt^V"^ economic value of having a daughter has been recognised since a greater number of wit */* seen as the source of greater food production Unique amongst the groups, in the hierarchical Keficho society, secondary wives with a status higher than concubines are 'paid' for their labours, that is, second, third and up to 'tenth' wives, are remunerated for services rendered specifically, cultivation, cooking, and child rearing
4.3.2 Oromo
Oromo culture is characterised by (he prestigious ownership of cattle for draught purpose and for manuring the land As the Oromo have migrated and settled over a vast area of Sou± western Ethiopia, the culture varies from region to region as Oromo people have aoquird traditions and customs of cultivation from the indigenous peoples In Wollega, for example unlike the south, no ensete is cultivated for food, while teff is the staple crop used for inicn and maize, the cash crop. Although fanners cultivate mainly subsistence crops, maize is sold at harvest for cash and often bought back at a loss due to the difficulty of storage Separate budgets are maintained by men and women in terms of marketing and expenditure, wonien gaming some income from butter sales to buy salt, oil, soap etc., and men receiving income from maize.
Middle -wealth families would normally keep two cattle while the poor would have na^ rich farmer might own up to fifteen or more In the traditional way. the ^rOin%^fcr- technique of shifting kraals to fertilise a large area of land with manure in the pen
the planting season. Manure is also used for dung fuel as there is severe defores^1 _he milL highlands and scarcity* of firewood Traditionally, women market butter but sc care of which is used for home consumption or for the herd. They also manage milking fe^ cattle while small boys are in charge of herding usually on a collective basis. ceS r^
water, prepare and distribute food and make milk containers while men but
the kraals where rhe cattle graze to manure the land As part of the essentia believed to be important to water cattle at salt and mineral springs
The land tenure system under the Oromo follows certain rules Under land Delonged collectively to a tribe and was acquired through patrilineal desc 
f orage. it’s
;
Of land was acquired by settling in a
p ace
] an<} by placine honey hives m
demarcate ownership Now. the land is owned bv the government as els^'here j ight> convoyed io current holders
TAMS-ULG Bare-Aiabc River Basill lntegral|:d Development Mas1crFl*n
3B20ANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHNTC GROUPS ANALYSIS
towards urbanisation which has been observed since the 1970's in areas like ffe 11 l (Tippett 1970) and in 1995. has resulted in creation of educated middle class and DeJnbld° 3V from the aSncul:uraI sector t0Wards urban-based employment. Increases in j shift aV' ; [he coffec sector and high yields from Global 2000 have meant increased
protln^^1
vis b e
j | investment in urban trade and services, with a resultant labour shortage cultural sector This labour shortage will constrain further efforts at agricultural
in fre “ $jnce the young and educated refuse to work in the fields, preferring white collar hjle'he cost for one agricultural labourer per day is 7/8 Sir.
4 j j Shekicho (Mocha)
Shekicho speak a North Oniotic dialect related to Kefana and live in Masha, Anderacha
Yeki teredos The staple food is ensete and its cultivation is considered critical to diet Xi survival In addition to cattle, who apparently flourish in this area, the Shekicho also ieep goats, sheep and chickens Milk is generally not for sale as it is mixed with ensete as a
•ood (A’flcto). Maize is also eaten as a porridge and used for horde (grain beer) and araqi
■'oditction According to our Shekicho informant, people grow maize, ensete. godere, tejf, pas and beans using traditional shifting cultivation techniques, first clearing the forest and then ploughing four times with oxen before planting. (Other evidence states that land is ploughed seven times (c.f. Ayyala 1987). Both a plough and a hoe are used for cultivation
Due to cultural prohibitions, women cook only non-meat dishes and do not eat chicken According to Ayyala, Shekicho women only share food with men if no guests are present 11987) Thus, diet and nutritional sums are determined by gender-based prohibitions on the preparation and consumption of certain foodstuffs This may have implications for diet and nutrition since children's food consumption is closely linked to womens They are not permitted to eat with their male elders until the age of 17 To negotiate marriage, a bride pnee is normally paid (estimated at between 2-10 cows) though ’forced marriage' (when no b-’de price is paid) is common when cash and cows are in short supply. Children are urged to ®arry young rather than go to school to supplement the family labour base and extended
security system according to Ayyala (ibid.) Education, therefore, is regarded as a -jectory away from the land into urban employment Women are responsible for collecting b^eT and all domestic tasks while men collect firewood There is reputedly no separation of
§0o^s within the household but because of the dietary prohibitions, but this nould ** ascertained
f Or cuttT^1
*aipr
“ »^pho d
f°resl is protected by the government and no nev» licences are issued bamboo stalks may be collected, however and are locallv used for milk and
r
1
er5andfiurimr;
"^MS’ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Developnwnt Master Plan5. PRIORITIES by sector
rcconuncnoauons wm u^vimj*******
5.1 Small Holder Agriculture
------ -------------.wv,
-n.
J. I.1 Agricultural intensification and labour shortage
Agricultural intensification was not a spontaneous priority, for a technical package to become attractive, large extension efforts will have to be undertaken throughout the region.
As a target quota of 400,000 fanners has been set for the coming year, it is impona.it thar i cost benefit analysis of fertiliser in the 0.5 hectare package recommended for rnm production be done to ascertain the balance between investment and return for the smallholder, especially in the fertile highlands of Oromiya It is particularly important as±is is the first time that less well-off fanners are being encouraged to invest in agricultural credit
In Dembidolo region, for example, if the price of maize is maintained at over 50 Birr'quintal yields of more than 8 quintal per hectare must be achieved for the inputs to be cost effective (The cost of agricultural inputs was calculated locally to be 424 Birr/ hectare for maize . Fears that the current intervention price of 70 Birr will not be maintained due to a glut onw market (or other forces) may create a reluctance amongst the more vulnerable group-
invest
According to an informant, rumours of an undefined tax to be levied on { agricultural surpluses (over and above the standard land tax of 20-40 Birr/ * already counteracted the positive benefits of the programme and diminished farme
Failure to achieve target yields due to lack of reliable extension information on varieties or application of fertilisers could prove disastrous for future govern of inpuu to encourage the use of agricultural inputs It will be essential to match distnbu
with better extension advice for confidence to be created All attempts to trans of farmers freely participating, into "quotas" achieved through leverage should avoided if the credit based approach is to succeed into the future.
3B-22ANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHNIC GROUPS ANALYSIS
ncmbidolo as town dwellers invest more in household construction, shops and ^stfvabU > phenomenon observed in the early seventies (Tippett 1970)
n
d Security. Nutrition and Communal Labour
bela plains amongst the Anuak, there is both a chronic food shortage and a
In the fianl
[alXJU
/due to the number of men killed in wars and the consequent number of
3C4fa^k°aded households. When food is short in the dry season, women say that they are
•edialc ea
; ornpe ie
aR a group for the escarpment (where the Majanger live) to forage for (hfin on retun] for maize. por other subsistence food, wild roots
Wl [d joots t)Ordo. achvahe and apudo. a sait substitute) are collected and boiled up for ^^shment, though this is increasingly regarded as poor man's food.
Ail over the basin, however, a system of exchange has developed in which one foodstuff iusually a cash crop like mangoes, papaya, bananas but not necessarily) is sold for another £tr oaize In the lowlands, traditional diets arc undergoing change as some food becomes more valuable for sale than for consumption as in the case of the cash-rich liduk who purchase Nile perch from the Anuak. According to a report for UNHCR on the Uduk by the anthropologist Wendv James, although only sufficient amounts of food aid are brought in for refugees' consumption, it is said that 75% may be leaving the Gambela area for resale as a
result of the profitability of the enterprise (James, 1995)
5.2.1 Beer
Drinking beer has been described as "eating food" by the Anuak However, beer is also a safe way of consuming water Most people in the south west of Ethiopia drink river water which they find to varying degrees contaminated with soap and human waste. The Anuak particularly as they live downstream of the UNHCR camp have detected foe deterioration in vittr quality and asked for band purtlpS to be installed. The dependence on increasingly httle^ nVW water f°r washing, bathing and drinking means that people actually drink very tocakwk" ?rc^err3riS ^>eeT’ t3rail‘ and coffee In some cultures (specifically Majanger), one’s ton'ase ' d lS ^e^net^ as "those wifo whom we share beer' Women who make the beer as a raills tob UStr^' mUSt P°und the for the beer and therefore are very interested in grain in collect'0 e5Ia^^'s^ed ncar them to save time Water points are equally needed to save time
ng water and enable women to devote more time to agriculture.
In lerrn
°ffoodstuffs and the domestic economy
Orally div’sions of labour and marketing responsibilities within the basin, men are
r,Fr?/ejpOrisibfo for sale of livestock and some produce, while women are the main
e domestic economy
Cc "'^mer uaods^5 ° ^mbela. Mizan and Tepi who come to buy produce and sell
attended bv 
t-e. highlanders) are from outside the region, while most markets
^ctiofunp '\°J’lcn II ts critical to note the importance of this distinction to understand
0 the local economy.
^ch
lhe V ar ^ °^
r Uce beer and from maize for sale and derive a 20 Birr.week profit
e
to keep for their own expenditure on clothes etc Men are similarly tS ULG Baru-Akobo River Bann Integrated Dn’ttopment Muttr PlanSOCIO-ECONOMICS ANNEX 3BSOCIO-ETHMCGRO c
---------- -----------------------------
able to keep profits from cash crops they sell (crops of bananas on the side of ,K example)
. « „„ cnrietv bv the fact that men sell their maize ernn WS “ ’’TlESX'» W *> *le «*? “d <Xh'1 SmaU
roj<f
SS ■» tor
""
„ -coEnise that men's and women's economies in most reg10ns are seen u
expenditure
5.3 Livestock
s “,n “■«“ «r *«>»»«
w..irh accumulation in the South west is linked to possession of cattle Amongst Llt ” ea" Bench Keficho. Nuer. cattle are patd as bride price to the family ofthe br.de iZore accumulation of cattle is regarded as socially vital for the payment of bride-price
Jd n providing access to oxen ploughs Cattle are also .mportant m providing milk, bene kins for domestic consumption and in generating by-products for sale in local markets 
R poor ten the Oromo, rhe pnee of nurture oxen is probibtax <800.1000 tar T. SrrX »-ith smell holdings .to ere not eble to acquire new land nor expand rhe extor.i their holdings, this acts as a further constraint to agricultural development
5.4 Forestry and Protection of the Catchment
have nar"fd « Abobo Gog. Godere, Sele Meseegodll S rSL^(B^lr) Sbeko (Sbeko) and Yeki (Shekrcho area). U oeooles) NfeonhiJ 1*m° ^romo^ t*le Gambela park (incorporating Anuik 
commonirv T
^T8 '°
of Pnvatc Indl3enous forest for purposes of
manapwt th aj^ement w ^ave t0 Ia*<e place with these groups who have traditional)' reoi«n»rinn CSC Orests 1 ^ould be anticipated that there may be active rejection of these indipenmi r n,a^ia?enenr policies by local people who see the action to register 'pmitt Venous forests as an attempt to extract control of the resource from their hands
In areas settled by the Me’en, Majanger, Bench, Sheko in the forests ntehear l.ar?e estates, land is considered to be plentiful Shifting cultivators in their sw jep|etcd new land on a gradual basis, converting it to agricultural land wht e t cR who
c0 ^
fallow. Nowadays, though, conflicts are developing between the honey p ^tratec by -
trees in the forest and the cultivators in Shekicho areas which must
. t on
j pressvr^
Peasant Associations Policies must be carefully laid down now as ^oney produ^
increase to determine the relative rights of access of shifting
apP3^ of
the forest (In many cases, they may be members of the same group. bum sy5te
highland settlers, both Amhara and Oromo, have emulated the slas rotating cultivation in the forest regions). The beeswax and honey exp on the existence of bee forage and forest so the cost-benefits s ou prion11 weighed by both the communities and the authorities in deterrninmS planning for the forest
A possible complication of any agro-forestry scheme in the heavily p°P of regions of Oromiva would be the problem of land shortage The
TAMS-ULG Biro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Develop,n€,,t ‘
3B-24
j
nu
j $try - ■ calcd1’1.^
,.
lated and^^jpjf1
•'E CONOMICS
ANNEX 3B socio-ethnic groups analysis
The ' ni and Environmental Protection cited the total lack of community involvement in
Develop,n
Pining o
woodlot schemes as a main reason for failure (1994) According to woodlots have been established without community consultation or
this study. sheets of the communitv to their major resource base Donor initiatives
tTee planting" as adoption of these schemes would mean' an initial loss of
deterrents should be carefully examined and socio-economic incentives created which would reverse this perception and encourage the development of community managed wood lots
55 The Impacts of NGO's
The achievements of Menschen fur Menschen in the Metu region in infrastructure building (water supply, schools, roads and bridges) are remarkable Similarly, Mekane Yesus has built protected springs in many rural and urban centres Nevertheless, a negative impact of NGOs' has been to create a dependency on government or government subsidised agencies to provide basic services free of charge The priced water from hand pumps in towns (e g. Gambela) has been successful and created demand in nearby rural areas (e g Bonga) where people seek clean water
In other sectors, the same Droblems of subsidy and lack of communitv involvement aoplv
3B-35SOCIO-ECONOMICS ANNEX 3B SOdO-ETHMc
----- --------------- -------- ' 
' 
--?lvSts
6 CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
6J Water Resources: Hydrology. Irrigation and Flood Control
In the name of flood control and in anticipation of large scale irrigation and dam .
Bare river in particular, the Gambela Regional Council is advocating resettlemeilt S°nt*
Anuak and Nuer people away from the nver banks and flooded grazing areas (c f
Needs Assessment Report. 1993.) The cunent flood regime, in fact, permits cultivate/ ,
critical flood recession crop for both the Anuak and the Nuer peoples, insuring them a***
even greater food insecurity From the ecological perspective, flooding in the lower S
of Gambela swampland also nourishes the soil in the grasslands, ensuring good grazing?
cattle and migrant game, and the breeding of fish stocks in the backwash from Sud?
according to an Anuak informant in Gambela
The resettlement of Anuak and Nuer away from river banks is unlikely to take place wnhow conflict. Strenuous disputes have already taken place when dispossession of the Amuk has been in question According to James (1995), when Uduk refugees were granted land or.the Baro for cultivation, the decision was reversed and the same land placed under the aegis of the Forestry department.
It is the natural irrigation of these silt-laden banks on which the Anuak people have base: their mode of life for millennia The Anuak currently reap two crops while rainfec agriculture in the region produces only one For that reason, they see no advantage is resettlement away from the silted nver banks According to their spokesmen, they art interested in developing improved agricultural practices (e g. row planting, use or"'raPf°' seeds and fertilisers, oxen ploughing) and need extension advice. Feanng crop theft i v live too far from their fields, some Anuak at Okuna on the Shiro river want to expan L areas of rainfed cultivation which border on their existing lands
In terms of securing Anuak support for irrigation developments, the situation could W hereas most Anuak do not speak Amharic or English, and have not taken km y t;
the Nuer who have taken advantage of their ambivalent identity and are mo
guarantee their economic future Possibly because of the impact of war and*is
4a
j p qor
ta
Nuer emigrating from Sudan appear more forward looking and more interest 1 They are also anxious to make a break with traditional mores and evolve new
keeping with the times
6.2. J Irrigation
In addition to the agncultural priorities of indigenous peoples, a major water resource development in the region is that there is no experience of
C ?CrI1S€ 'n fl00d Lm^l,on s*stems does cxist cl5eW
owlands (the Blue Nile Gorge, for example) Even if the svstem were ec
^ on$, it
'(1*
T
th2 l COns‘dera*)*e amount of crop losses would occur unt>
J
learned and perfected The Nilotic peoples (.Anuak, Koma. Nuer and Ldu*> *
‘
Sudanese and Ethiopian lowlands have evolved their
own flood recession’
TAM^ULGB^^Xk^7~er Basin Integrated DevdopmentW^ r”*- 1Q.rCO^orvnCS
ANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHMC GROUPS ANALYSIS
, and socio-economic incentives would have to be created to persuade them to
Their current reasonably fad-safe system for another These remain to he identified
e t0 Gambela Council officials, investment is currently being encouraged as a result ACCDf nmpieted Alwero dam scheme However, the lease on the land being offered to the Ot ±e 'sector is a mere eight years In view of the high cost of the infiastnicmre which must ^^'It to deploy this water in irrigation, a period of eight years is not normally considered "" ' niitrh to reap sufficient returns on the investment required for irrigated agriculture As ^ Xpolicy may have to be re-examined
i Water Supply a nd Sanitation
tri*
-r^re was a consistent call for rural drinking water supply amongst all women interviewed, local NGO's have identified spring development and hand pumps as a priority and there is an awareness that more localised wrater supply will improve hygiene conditions as well as save ume Drinking water should be treated by the planners as an absolute priority from the point of human resource mobilisation as w/ell as public health as it will free up time for women to devote their energies to increased agricultural production and marketing The issue of water pricing should be carefully studied, however, as current models for rural water supply do not make any proviso for maintenance of fixtures to be managed or financially supported by community contribution. It is totally unrealistic to imagine that these water supply points will continue to function in a sustainable fashion across the Baro-Akobo basin if this situation is no: reversed in the near future
6 -3 Natural Resources and Agriculture
issue of food security is affected by a number of regional, climatic, and market factors, “d tenure policies and the quality of infrastructure in a given area. Nevertheless, particular
50l 'u-economic constraints should be home in mind tn planning strategies for increasing ipicultural production in the Baro-Akobo basin.
' c dela^s in ’he allocation of credit and poor delivery’ of inputs in certain regions of (FAOtvfp ^as'n dave hindered farmers' access to agricultural inputs in the last year
1995) In particular:
cred^ ^'°
e
n 4 (Orotniya), the distribution of fertiliser was hampered since access to
Asso1 nOt advanccd t0 farmers who had belonged to bankrupt Peasant
ap _ ClatlOns (In this case, individual farmers were penalised for the failure of PA
. ^Couni ntanagement.)
credit” Parts of SEP AR region as well as Oromiya, problems in the timing of for agf10^*011 *nd payback created difficulties for farmers wishing to receive credit manf f?U Urai inputs The early nature of the planting season last year meant that *°callv Were recluired to plant without access to fertilisers because they were not
lively ?Vaj^akle. Thus, the problem of transport is critically linked to the key factor of
oft theLr^r^11^011
f ajTners were not given credit because they had not yet paid froni the previous season, a situation which points to a poor
the ^^lance^^ mechanism of the credit system and/or inefficient management of
Ce °f cash and credit payments by individual farmers
Vl<G Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Dmdopmcnt Master PlanSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHNIC rt>n. ------------------------------------------
These issues, if untreated, may have profound impacts on the policy t0 Inip]eni hectare package throughout the country If relatively secure farmers (the
Global 2000 initiative) who have taken credit to improve crop yields are dl<r
the <
0
there will be even greater reluctance on the part of poorer farmers to accentT^ %
credit Fanners who are still not entirely conversant with the credit and repav™ ' of
vulnerable both to market fluctuation in the value of their crops and the Dr ^i-e
^Cf W
security.
According to the FAO mission, crop prices of maize steadily fell to up to 16 ’/
prior to the harvest after August 1995 (i e to 50 Birr/quintal as opposed to
the same time the previous year) as a result of the combined effects of the harv al loading of stocks by traders and farmers to make way for the new supply (ibid ) q * fact that a base price of 70 Birr/quintal has been set by the government, price deflaf^ negatively influence farmers’ inclinations to take credit and invest in agricultural i
P SSUres of
the future. In areas where improved varieties have been tried and failed due to pest atT'-' other factors, it should be expected that there will be substantial reluctance on the traditional fanners to proceed further
6.4 Fisheries
p '01
The development of a fishery industry will depend on who traditionally eats fish and whoaj afford to buy fish Refugees are the current consumers of fish near Bonga and kang region on the Baro nver since they are able to obtain cash through sales of food aid (cooking oil flour and maize) Anuak men have continued to fish but have begun to sell fish in preference to domestic consumption since the Uduk refugees can afford to buy large Nile perch wholesale Attempts to truck fish into Gambela by the heavily subsidised fishery co operatives supported by Mekane Yesus have failed due to the breakdown and Dot maintenance of vehicles in Itang. Similarly, near the refugee camp of Fugnido. the deman. for fish as a function of the cash-rich refugee population is considered to be high Due tc .k unreliability of diesel supplies, electricity7 and consequently, facilities for refrteeraticr ir Gambela there is little likelihood of the fish industry developing beyond the local mar*^ Transport facilities must be improved and taxation at road blocks between regions nluS^ managed more effectively so as not to create a disincentive for trade between regions general dislike of fish amongst the Oromo people who live in the nearest trig „ & centres where fish markets might most easily be created constitutes a niajor diversification of the fish market (since the easiest option to export surpluses of $
markets would not be viable.)
6.5 Agro-Forestry
The notion of planting trees for personal use could be developed if trees both for«
purposes and for firewood were given a more appropriate financial and com®i The contingent value of trees appears to hinge currently on the issue of la®* most communities m the Southwest of Ethiopia, the only trees one can be said trees which are m close proximity to one’s own compound, not the trees m the
fc Shekieto areas for example, near Masha. trees can be owned and are M to ,nd,cate ownershrp Otherwise. trees owned bv a household are (e g. Shektcho) or within a homestead (e g Bench. ShekoTEncou^^L-^
$
a! & fcrt5t
TAMS ULG Baro-Akobo Rhtr Bain Integrated Development M»*er
3B-28oN OiVnCS
ANNEX 3B SOC1O-ETHNIC GROUPS ANALYSIS
—-—-— 
~ ~~ —------------------------------------------------------------------------
6 Wild>ifc
e traditional groups, game is still a valuable source of food and other by-products,
Tally where consumer goods are not purchased in other more urban societies, the
SpeC' rial value of prized skins, especially leopard, on the open market would appear to be
^ount motivation for hunting
anonS between forestry and wildlife authorities have been strained since a vengeful filiation was staged by local people after the overthrow of the Derg. The) felt that they had been unfairly deprived of use of their own local resources by threat of force, a point conceded "v the spokesman of EWCO at the conference of Wildlife Participatory Conference (Farm Africa 1995). According to him, the Derg regime ignored the people's role when "ecological ard economic benefits (were) not accruing to local communities" (Leykun Abunie. EWCO). It was noted that the situation now is exacerbated by the fact that most of the shifting cultivators, cultivators and agro-pastaralists have procured firearms which they use in self- defence and hunting.
In reference to the Omo and Mago National Parks proposals, Professor David Turton stated at the same conference that planners have shown "little regard for local environmental knowledge and disregard for local land rights and subsistence needs Secondly, he said, "they show scant willingness to 'save' the wilderness from those who created it and wish to maintain it" (Turton in the Proceedings of the Conference on Participatory Wildlife Management, Farm Africa 1995)
relevant since the same observ ations may apply to the Anuak and bluer peoples in the
^mbela pi
a ns
i Like the Anuak, the Omo based Mursi practise ’flood" retreat cultivation
ted cultivation in the bushbelt, as well as cartle herding above the 500 m contour.
- ‘VI -vechusar. Mago and Omo National Parks" development The prob > h “*tver, have been deemed to be 1) no devolution of responsibility to local
.
?wenues
Plans UMCnSe ®6nerated f°r the local communities who currently manage the wildlife and 3) no
r^ --------------------------------------- -
’
*’ -----------
etijeix,
Th
such revenues These problems must be addressed direct y to
er community co-operation in specific ways.
'
;
' ■ wildlife management However
their, 10 501116 deSre« of community P
arU cipa
. ?° J7^eral
n
responsibilities overlap and
T esru?aJ tUl’Onal Procedures are cumbersome, regional an
devo ut
i ion and management an
^duoJ0115 Wi'1 be inv0,ved which may make the Proces comniunitv-based initiatives ts 
°? -
e
(fee b“r«.— •
The commitment of the government to vo
Several recommendations are ill-defined and depend
well.ftjnded and well-
3B - 29gncrO-ECO.NO.MICS ANNEX SB SOCIO-ETHN7C GROi^ .
...................................... ........................................
costs of good management" as ar. initial priority, may also jeopardise the ~
scheme. The status of the EWCO as an autonomous para-statal. account^?55
would seem to be poorly defined and needs clarification. Furthermore, "local Pan-to rt®ot» economic use" must be clarified as must the local residents' rights to USc
-------------------------------------------------^Sls
resources', which are to be "subject to ceiwn controls .
The issue of consumptive use also appears problematic in that 'cultivation and
nd and
will not be permitted This will affect agriculturists in the Gambela park region whT'^’ plants as well as game as vital buffer to starvation during the dry ^
s SOn
occasions, these forays for food last as long as a week and require overnight Honey gathering from forest hives is similar
6 resid».«
e
temtorial disputes can be avoided [It should be noted that in meetings with ^.[e Regional Council, the intent to settle pastoralists vvas still being advocat promulgation of this law]
The Draft wildlife act also encourages the registration of "private forests the Kefa region, registration has been associated with expropriation of I2 so the regional government may have to deal with this issue sensitively engender co-operation
The key strategy must be section E3 ; "communities will participate in planning mana®
and share in the benefits of the park" The provision of other basic services such
supply and agricultural inputs will encourage communities to feel that they beneficiaries of the scheme and not merely the losers, so all interventions should b modulated across sectors through the regional government The election of comnutitts tj plan developments is highly recommended but no "hierarchy of committees" is recommenced since that would run counter to the objective which is to manage the resource at tie community level
The community management of wildlife through licences granted to committee is probably the most sustainable method for conservation of stocks since it operates on an equitable car system The actual procedures will need to be ironed out in practice There may be i problem about payment to communities for wildlife contracts to be monitored and approved by both the EWCO and the region This system could lead to delays and subsequsn: disillusionment with the system by impoverished local people who may then feel forced by economic circumstance to return to illicit poaching
The issue of resettling existing dwellers in the proposed parks (E7) remains problem^ however As has been admirably demonstrated during the Derg regime, invounur settlement provides no permanent solution to the problem and creates social havoc, an some cases, famine and disaster in its wake Recourse to the Prime .Ministers o arbitration will be time-consuming and not necessarily the most apt solution As P
have been granted the right not to be displaced from their land under the new
and the wildlife policy advocates that seasonal usage of land may continue, it ®
that the areas of land claimed by pastoralists be demarcated with the com!nul^ Qjjnbeh
histeff
^she?
TAMS-HG Bin^Akobo Rjver Basin Integrated Development M**er P‘ANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHNIC GROUPS ANALYSIS
Tourisn1
, ret^iuc lourism" or interaction of toreigners with traditional groups of the highland
S[yCil st tW°n
not be V!able se but 'eco-tourism" in the forest and the
$c*Jth which would exploit the knowledge of indigenous peoples of forest flora and
be highly successful. Such models have been developed in Uganda for the
fsutu cou
i and such a programme would be an environmentally sound and
trac e
b ^rnica|lv productive strategy for Ethiopian tourism as well as catchment protection
. forest above Mtzan Teferi towards Tepi is an extraordinarily beautiful site in
lhE C
- wursm could be combined with coffee production, as a complementary but equally 
^■ductive cash'generating industry. At the higher altitudes, the forest near Tepi with its 
estered lake, would constitute a natural site for tourist lodges catering to both Ethiopian
^foteian tourists, with its giant fems, orchids, pomsettias and flowering trees
Mthe same time, trackers from the Majanger and Me'en might be induced to take tourists on walking tours if they were to benefit financially and revenues were to be perceived as :cmpensation for cutting down forest. Industries could be developed with these revenues diversifying into plant and cut (lower export (as is being done in Eritrea) and wild honey production The main spokesmen for the Majanger in Meti were familiar with the English lirguage and this would indicate that with supplementary training, a programme could be liunched which could attract the support of local peoples and give momentum to the envelopment of a national tourist industry.
6.8 Impact of Refugee Populations
Tne impact of decades of civil strife, refugee populations and famine has been marked on the productivity of the lowlands and its dwindling wildlife population. According to one Nuer
■dormant, familiar with the language of war. ’Now we have defeated the animals '
^pnuer'5 Cdrrentiy Prac,ised by Anuak. Nuer, Uduk and Fulaia in the plains. Me'en and wildlife n ^ escarpment, during the dry season The impact of uncontrolled hunting on ^ainedP<h,°U'ati°n 'S severe< 45 ^1 groups take part, particularly in the dry season The iinajon r11?1111® *he forests to encourage the green shoots and attract game may be a tad CQitipei-t * incrcasingly desperate need tD supplement diet amongst the Anuak and Uduk, ^oiinst tL1 cDIJ f°r lbe now depleted game stocks between the escarpment and the grasslands 
ulata. Majanger, Nuer.
attract uildTf0^ "S ^one ®rotn January to March to encourage the growth of new grass takin 1 ,^owever* such bush fires occasionally rage out of control, inflamed by 
^sed as a sl 1 'T tol* on trees and even electricity poles While burning has also been
NUer
* m tactic used by hunters to flush out game from the hinterlands, one
er
, atned that brush was burnt during February/March was done to kill the
, bly both the malarial mosquitoes and tsetse fly) lingering in the wet
resUrna
]T
lr seTtt>errieni as a precaution.
the e respect th
^^^ability eimpact of the refugees has been good In terms ot economic impact,
b to
and ma
^ Or sa^e *n Gambela market is being boosted by Fulata herds as
™lk daily to sell their surpluses In this way, they fill a providing a desirable product. The niche in the market is 
Uiiro- Ako bo River Basin Integrated Dnciopnnent Muter Plan
IB-31
;.4>-SOCIO-ECONOMICS ANNEX 3B SOClO-ETHNlc GROl w
-------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------ ------------
aallsoso bbeeiinnag ddeevevellooppeedd bby y eennttrreepprreenneeuurr sesettttlleerrs s ffrroomm nneeaarrbby y hhiigghhllaanndds s wwhhoo are
increase the productivity of their herds in Gambela using communal grazing landT'^'^ ’<• 6.9 Cultural Constraints to Development
6.9.1 Patterns of settlement
In the highland areas of the south-west excluding Oromiya, the majority 
cultivators live in small settlements formed of clusters of houses At the moment °L5*1^ is no more adjacent forest to clear, the Majanger, Me'en, Sheko and Shekicho peoote
their base to another settlement
es trans*
Currently, the priority for most shifting agriculturists is the necessity to be close to th f
It is vital for their survival that they protect their crops from thieves and pilfenna a " i (baboons and monkeys). With forest dwellers such as the Me'en and Majanger, proxiiw^- the forest has been essential in the past for security and escape from marauders Even ui’h-- the last five years, serious outbreaks of fighting have erupted between the Majanger and the Macha Oromo over control of the area near Meti Historically, such incursions by outsiders into Majanger territory have been repelled by using their knowledge of the dense forest to deter invaders and escape capture The forest acts as their primary defence as well as the source of their livelihood.
For the Shekicho, for example, as a result of population pressures, there is an effective lane shortage. Land is not available at close range to allow expansion of existing settlement; Cultural priorities are being challenged in such situations as elsewhere in Ethiopia with the result that young people are leaving the land to seek alternative livelihoods either through wage labour or the marketing of charcoal and other forest products
Shifting cultivators cannot sustain their current mode of livelihood in villages far frc[T forests Until this slash and bum style of cropping is changed, either as a function o< legislation to protect the natural forest, or because other industries are created, peop conception of their livelihoods will not change It should be remembered that attempts^ forced villagization have failed both in the highland and lowland areas of
cultural as well as climatic and economic reasons. Deployment of indigenous peoples in agricultural sectors such as tourism might be one constructive solution to the encroac of cultivators on natural forest.
6.9.2 Marriage
Traditionally marriage has endowed capital to a couple but nowadays, marriage perceived to be as a source of capital to the parents The Anuak pay 1500 Bin L°
of the girl as dowry, the Nuer pay 10 cattle to cement a union; the Bench, betwee ^nch at 600-1200 each, plus a calf to the mother of the bride and so on. Amongst tn ten5lOn5 steep pnee has led to abduction of girls and a situation which causes friction
between communities
lhe necessity for a man to earn the bride price in order to marry can ur^onplace frustration in a subsistence economy Abduction and rape can become com* internecine conflicts can be further inflamed In an area of south-westjinj^^
TAMS-CLG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Plan
3B-32ANNEX 3B $OCIO-ETHN1C GROUPS ANALYSIS
«vstems of marriage, it has been suggested by population expens that a ereaier children are needed by each wife to help in the cultivation of each woman’s 
° nlot Sons arC als° en[,t ™ t0 inheriT tiie iantf and therefore, each woman seeks to
rf#PeCtlVC(n the land through her children The result is a population surge, not a decrease
1
I * security is more assured, such traditional systems serve to guarantee economic L'fiti! bot)! parents in changing economies Neither men nor women are anxious to be security j0 without sustenance when sons go off in pursuit of cash-generaling labour prgotten o impacts of such social policies should be directly confronted bv planners 
^^dering agricultural expansion vs other development options in the highlands and
when c0
]0”GP
that greater access of girls to education will change the behaviour. For this to take j’ 5- °though, more women will have to be trained as teachers in local teacher training ' [lXs for enrolment of girls to become culturally and socially acceptable. A regional
Xi therefore, could well be the creation of teacher training colleges in each region, w ith S'dirig or hostel facilities for student teachers, particularly women.
410 Trading and Tradition
A cultural problem posed for the development of the forest and escarpment as well as the
lowlands is that the majority of middle-man traders and importers come from the highlands 
Fhe impetus to trade for profit is simply not a characteristic practice of either the Omotic 
speaking (Bench, Me’en) or the Nilotic peoples (Anuak, Nuer, Majangerj The Oromo
wwever, have always manifested a talent for a multiplicity of trades and livelihoods 
wherever they have migrated
An impetus for sedentarization amongst the Majanger has led to increasing importance being Ehw to education, jobs, cash economy and diversification of cash crops away from >utuisience, but it is still necessarv to slash and bum new tracts of land everv four vears as we is no use of fertiliser.
j incentives devised to reduce the population nse
mc
‘ § centres training people in skilled occupation could create a pool of 'caste-' *bour 10 work ’n industry though there is a tradition amongst three tribes that lower
■»boLir normally ould work as hunters (Bench, Sheko and Kefa) and perform skilled
lrain n
w
boweviT ° SUC^ an*mO5itv to manual or skilled tasks seems to exist amongst lhe Anuak, who P«fer collective activity
X>c*1 Priorities
re &Wk 
with local planning authorities throughout the basin io record their
lri othert T1 prioritlcs On some occasions, these plans were conveyed in discussion l^Uted ; ’ “p ments in Amharic were given to the team in order that they could be
cu
E
1
"S 'sh for the consultants' reports The results that follow document the
nose enquiries
Baj^-Akobo River Barin lutegnued
Muslcr Pl"SOCIO-ECONOMICS
6.11.1 Sfc-iin Tcfari (SEPAR)
ANNEX 3B SOCIO-
fI^ov
PSAXALYs|s
(Bench zone includes Shewa Gimrra. Gurrafarda. Sheko. Temenja Yazhi p/IJS confirmed)
Representatives from the NGO Bench Development Association considered development priorities to be spring protection, construction ot schools, and f (though there was no apparent concern for the danger to forests from those acc ° ^
QJ ' (n<»
ra
The cost of transporting coffee was estimated to be between 20/30 Bin for one mT
one quintal (100 kg) from the hinterlands and the construction of feeder roads wo easier to bring coffee to market (Bench and Sheko weredas are the major coffe^ tI'aJce “ zones near Mizan Tefari) Currently, though, (January ’96), there is a fear that
beans may rot due to the unceasing and unseasonable rain in the Bench region "
According to our Mizan Tefari-based informants there are certain urgent priorif development Urban dwellers are anxious to improve their electricity supply and w^t/iT willing to pay 5 Birr'month for electricity, secondly, as the natural'forest is not cun b
being protected, laws against encroachment should be devised to protect it, thirdly as there a particular need for more secondary schools in the rural areas, facilities for teacher rrairun^ should be set up in the region The nearest centre currently is in Awasa, 700 km away
C Co®>e'
The cultural constraints to development, as identified by an urban Bench informant, were said to be polygamy, the custom of abducting girls for marriage without negotiation or bride-price and high expenditure on weddings and funerals
6.11.2 Dima Town
This small town where the UNHCR camp is located on the banks of the Akobo river has sprung up and expanded mainly in response to the presence of Nuer and Dinka refugees, crossing over from war-tom Sudan .A lively economy for consumer goods catering to the grain-rich refugees has developed in the town, mainly managed by highlanders from Gojjam and Tigre Nevertheless, private enterprise is slowly being attracted by the Dima market Mules were being walked to the lowlands where they could be sold in Dima for 100 Birr cattle were similarly being led by enterprising Nuer through the tsetse infested grasslands ot profitable sale in the lowlands
3
Surma (Tirma) agro-pastoralists live to the south of Dima and practice artisanal gold P ^ *
in nearby rivers. Diseases are rife there and it is considered a dangerous place to nil/
in search of work Souih of Tepi, on the way to Dima is the huge coffee plantation a $
where coffee is intercropped with banana and mango among the shade trees Again,
extremely fertile and well-watered zone. The Me’en live in the highlands beow
though the lower escarpment appears to be virtually unpopulated.
6.11-3 Gambela Town: i
t
• -
-
, frecHicrtt
From meetings, it became clear that flooding of the Baro river is becoming mors ^ces >n the level of the river is rising According to the head of the Bureau of Water *
Gambela, there are certain plans to experiment with water resource develop t a site
r1n
mcludmg small scale irrigation on the Bonga river to produce maize and ^ ? ? \
be Al«*f
6 areI,t'
yet ^elected The process of displacement and resettlement necessity* *! J ApP
dam is to be managed by the central government, not the regional authorities m Abcb?' 400-500 people have been told to move (according to the Water Burea^^S-^^
TAMS-LLG RiroAknbo Rhrr Biiin Integrated DevdoptncDt
Fl!lANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHNIC GROUPS ANALYSIS
fh
. number of houses was said to be 1 Q.
5 k js
. Abobo is 5 or 10. If it is 10 per household -h^ ° wl,«her the aw> w be resettled as a consequence of Alwero da^
and '^re >s considerable uncenanm,
SMS* it also became clear that
..
lhaI *
■*»
° f ,he ™«phse
r3n3ged at national, not regional level Thlt J Je Park- when unties wtth the four communes,
^dop a consensus and become mutual benef?. P Bg for ^ ur« management Any resolution oF the
jreatenmg me continued existence of a
* auhon,iK to ~ ™
negot^*“ lc>^' been
Oy tbe ^ional
' n a ^otiated resoi^«s. l0 Problcm (whpr COmP^rnlse Over
■ meeting with the Gambela Regional Council's planning department and sector heads, the Rowing developments were identified
• Health centres are to be built, not in villages but spaced within a radius of settlements io provide an increased number of clinics per region, in. addition, community health personnel are to be trained m primary health care
• Four farming projects in Abobo have been licensed to investors for peanuts, pepper, and cotton projects on plots ranging between 400 and 500 hectares The duration of the lease granted is 8 years Foreign investments are being managed at the central, not the regional level and therefore, nothing has been circulated about them
■ Agricultural inputs have been ordered in the past but were not received and there is a continuing problem of supply via the service co-operatives The agricultural sector representative acknowledged that no private traders were selling fertilisers at the moment.
Flood embankment plans are being discussed and the hiah cost of such embankments noted.
There are plans for local businessmen to undertake co-operative ventures in the private sector in the near future These ventures might include co-operative small enterprise ^d agricultural development on collectively owned plots.
W-< Masha (Shekicho zones, SEPAR)
A
Mricultural development. They included improv
meeting was 
held with the
rt ,rtiined the local priorities tn agricultural Wl^lg*ension services to encourage lhest
^toning and development of improved fodderSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETHNIC GRnr-b
-------- -------------- —------------------------------- __J ’ f K AN ALV;
Sis
7.
need for further studies
7.1 Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) and Participatory Urban App
i
ra Stl (P|
Following the preparation of proposed interventions in the Master Plan, mor Participatory Rural and Urban Appraisal studies are recommended, preferably with m women's groups separately. This tactic will give more specific feedback on indtvidJ"^ to labour in the various productive sectors (agriculture, livestock and marketing of „ MPUts and areas of incentive creation .As women are generally responsible for secondary 
crop management from weeding to harvesting and food processing, their ability t0
such tasks may become overextended if no other labour source or shift in traditional lab^' practices are forthcoming Similarly, for men. if wage labour is becoming the major cash source for households and as a result, there is a shortage of male labour even for common activities such as land clearing, ploughing and sowing of crops, it will be imponani to examine the consequences in human resource terms for proposed interventions such as Global 2000 or the expansion of coffee plantations in forest areas Current trends in the expansion of the economy in terms of diversification of cash crops and cash requirements for expenditures on education, health and food (sectors traditionally managed by women) will also need to be clarified in such a study
These PRA’s and PUA's can be managed in the following ways First, rapid PRA's can be conducted in the highland areas near Mizan Tefari amongst the Bench, Me'en, Sheko and Majanger shifting cultivators individually as they’ manage the eco-system of the area in relatively different ways and seek to exploit natural resources in distinctly different social anc environmentally sustainable ways (i e either with and without cattle or with and without the concept of permanent' settlements)
Secondly, PRA's can then be conducted in the lowlands, amongst the cattle
nationals living around hang and Jikawo and the sedentary' Anuak peoples o a
region, with meetings sought individually with .Anuak near Gambela, elsewhere on 1 river near Bonga and south to the Gilo and Akobo rivers (This is important as the eco and sources of income of various .Anuak groups differ significantly)
Thirdly, PRA's and particularly Participatory Urban Appraisal studies can be ^rcC years Oromiyya region where agricultural inputs have been provided for the last two to$
In this case, it will be important to consider three distinct groups, first, fartn ^jent, ar
med Global 2000. secondly, farmers who have not tried Global 2000 or t c 
thirdly, a mixed group of urban dwellers, civil servants and entrepreneurs, takJDg prOblern o' the growing urbanisation of the area due to the prosperity reaped from coflee, ^jon Tl* labour shortage and costs of bringing in labour to increase agricultural pro ^jghed
contribution of greater crop yields to the area’s economy should a S
^ .:
n se
as iJ
Dembidolo, in particular, should be considered as the focal point for the exerc 
nexus for the greatest traffic in goods between Gambela and the rest o
fEl h,O P
. f TipPen
19
centre for urbanisation and homogenisation as a result of trade in the area (C- - 6 Sec the Economic infrastructure aancx (3 C)
"
T.AMS-ULG Biro-Akobo River Basin integrated Development Master P|<nANNEX 3B SOC1Q-ETTTMC GROUPS ANALYSIS
H a's would assess:
Tie* pK jjiingness of farmers (male and female) to adapt credit schemes.
'
^ s- understanding of the use of fertilisers, pesticides and improved seeds
' Torioritiwiion of development needs from the point of view of the various ' ^unities, differentiating between urban needs (the demand for more second^
bools feeder roads, local transport, health centres etc,,) or rural needs (increased * cultural inputs and development of agro-industries, for example)
I -i-
ill give planners some understanding of how to create the socio-economic incentives 
[h!i ,ied for development of entrepreneurship in the various regions. Such studies would also
"tt ihe way to opportunities for private sector investment and indicate the appropriateness 
Anther development interventions (proposed by the consultants) to the local communities 
issues to be considered could include
* the willingness of the community to contribute labour or moneys towards the provision of infrastructure (e g springs, hand pumps, feeder roads and the cost of materials, (and terms would need to be negotiated with local NGO’s to ensure some degree of consistency or the initiative will fail)
* the material benefits expected to accrue to the community from proposed interventions, (cost-benefit analyses and training and employment opportunities which would be open to members of the local community)
* the changes in legislation or community management strategies which would be appropriate to safeguard the natural resources of the area (the honey industry in the forest versus agricultural expansion, for example and the development of sites of "exceptional natural beauty" (e g. the lake near Tepi or Lake Tata near Gog) and their compatibility with coffee or other forest industries
impacts of the other proposed intervention strategies (e.g eco-tourism)
•'tb ^pcipatory approaches have been adopted in other resource management projects f f°r examP'e’ ’n the Blue Nile gorge) after decades of failure to impose top-
"T’Ji bette*11 InS and Wou|d constitute an innovative approach to land use resource planning er prospects of sustainability and success than top-down methods
"2
N “feition and fQotj SOurces
k ® pp A *
^"frols its n W>H also be important to investigate what is the source of food, who Auction? ?r UcVOn and marketing? who inherits the land and thus the source of food ? purc^frZh fo?dfrom a woman's own plot9 her husband's plot? Food For Work a
ln ‘tfractio j
t]
b Drn rnar^et? after sale of what produce9) in order to understand the complex 
* nsUmPtfonnf?'6eri WOme^ children and men in the production, distribution and orto°d across the basin
’^ntivpL^6
to evaluate how control over returns in household agriculture
'Qi>? affect0 v'Or^ a*1 d consider how the introduction of commercial iarming (Global thep ft °Ver mart thc S der-specificity of fanning activities In many countries, men lend
en
Ute 1°^ at wnrL^ Or'enled production, leaving women to subsistence farming. • are
db °IJ- silUnt- 'n Eth
7
*°P’a These should be defined The issue is labour availability Is facilitated by the prevalent polygamous system? More wives are
BaroAkobo River Bain Integrated Development Mmer Plan
3B-3SOCIO-ECOAO.MICS ANNEX 3B SOCIO-ETBNIC GR
welcomed since they share labour for field cultivation though the probl
in collecting fuelwood and water is a factor which constrains e j™ °^ '
t n ’e con
education (Young girls are deployed by their mothers to walk Ion Srf-aCCess (o firewood.) Tasks traditionally undertaken by women include planting8 dlstances |O ,°?!a crop transporting and processing (See Cleaver & Schreiber l qq i W^dln^- hanJ?*
amplification)
4 79‘84 fOr
Due to the increasing need for more consumer items especially in prox
have been involved in generating cash crops directly for the market ft™' t0 tOwns *on> Aorde delta) and araqi for sale either from home or in the marketplace™^'51'11^ St may be expected in the domestic economy and women's roles if invest™ Substantial chim. agricultural sector in areas where women are the mam cultivators and rniJk ” IDto *e
, .t.Mished between government and fanners that any incentive to produce
If trust can be estab more will not be can be overcome *
rc uCt
comp cmcn
| ance to abandon subsistence agncultme | tarv crops in the fertile highlands (coffee plus fruh prove<i successful. There is a growing need to build on
trees, grains and veg P environment, enhance productivity through econotnx 
successful
BIBLIOGRAPHY
-y wp-
” ,he tem c
:
”
AbbinkJ 1986 The Me’en as Historical Transformation of the Surma Preliminary Notes on Society and Culture in Proceedings of the VII International Congress of Ethiopian Studies. Moscow
Abbink J 1992. The Me’en of South-western Kafa. Catalogue of Me’en .Artefacts in the Ethnological Museum Addis Ababa: Institute of Ethiopian Studies
Avy ala Anjelo .Ago. 1987 A Socio-Cultural Survey of Shekecho Nationality Addis Ababa University. Senior Paper, Dept, of Geography
Bartels, Lionel. 1969 Galla of The Ethiopian Far West: their own view of the past Institu-e of Ethiopian Studies .Addis Ababa University
Bender, M L et al I976 Language in Ethiopia London, Oxford University Press
Bender, M Lionel (ed) 1981 Peoples and Cultures of the Ethio-Sudan Borderlands Lansing Michigan State University
A n ultUIL ent
Central Statistical Authority Jan 1995 Report of Crop Utilisation S 5, Survey, 1989/90 Private Holdings Addis Ababa. Transitional G°'e Ethiopia
Cleaver, Kevin M and Gotz A. Schreiber 1994. Reversing the Spiral e Agriculture and Environmental Nexus in Sub-Saharan Africa, WasW - Bank
nl
TAMS-ULG Biro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Mas ' "
1 1 PliB
3B-38eCOnoM5!__________ . ™
A EX3BS0c,0-^»c GROWS axalySI<
Antony O 1972 An Agricultural and Socio Ecn
efugec Settlement and Surrounding .Area in Gambel^Sop^’^ S0Uth Sudan iForestnAction Program 1994 AddisAbaba Minion, rv - unrstry ofAaturaJ Resot.rces
tin [994 Integrating Gender Issues in Participatory Approaches for Rural Development A
A ° Case Study of Enegelashumoch. Addis Ababa, Draft
H
fA 0 1995 Improving Client-oriented Extension Training in Ethiopia North Omo Case Stu dy (SEPAR region) Addis Ababa: Agricultural Extension Education Project Ministry of Agriculture Draft.
: A0 1995. Improving Client-onented Extension Training in Ethiopia West Harerghe Case Study (Oromiyya). Addis Ababa: Agricultural Extension Education Project Ministry of Agriculture. Draft.
Afiica 1995. Proceedings of the Participatory Wildlife Management Workshop. Addis Ababa
tains Harold and M Bender 1976. -Non-Semilic Languages' in Language in
ris ML. Bender. I D Bowen. R.L. Cooper and C A. Ferguson London Orford University Press
C-mye, Kebedc A Short History of the Bench. M A_ Thesis, Addis Ababa Lui ersi . Dept, of .Anthropology
M Max, 1932 The Citadel of Ethiopia the empire of the divine emperor. London Jonathan Cape
3B-39James, Wend} 1995 Report to ANCHOR on the Uduk January 1995
James Wendy, 1986 Lifelines Exchange marriage among the Gumuz “ ,n y. Marches of Imperial Ethiopia, eds Donham. D and Wendy Jam S°ut|’«m Cambridge University Press pp 119-147.
James Wendy. 1979 Kwanimpa the making of the Uduk people Oxford Clarend Johnson, Douglas H, 1994. Nuer Prophets Oxford Clarendon Press
Johnson Douglas H, 1986 On the Nilotic Frontier: Imperial Ethiopia in the south 1898-1936, in The Southern Marches of Imperial Ethiopia, eds Donha^
W'endv James Cambridge Cambridge University Press 
Kamar. Shubh. Hana Neka Tevev and Gianni Pastore 1992 Investment in Nutritio Health for Famine Prevention in Ethiopia, in Famine and Drought Mitiest*1 Ethiopia in the 1990’s eds Patrick Webb, T. Zegeye and R. Pandya-Lwtt Washington International Food Policy Research Institute
es cambrid3e
am' D 20:1
e
History , Addis Ababa University
Stauaer, Jack. 1971 The .Majanger. Cambridge Cambridge University Press 
Tippett, Alan R 1970 People of South West Ethiopia South Pasadena. Caltro Carey Library
UNDP Gambella Needs .Assessment Survey (Region 12) August 1993
Uallmark, Patrick. 1981 The Bega (Gumuz) of Wollega Agriculture an Peoples and Cultures of the Ethio-Sudan Borderlands, East Lansing University pp 79-116.
Lange. Werner 1975 Gimira Remnants of a Vanishing Culture Johann Wolfgang Goeiht-
Universitat
Mengisto Seyoum 1993 The Shekicho. M.A Thesis Addis Ababa University, Dept of
.Anthropology.
Orent, Amnon 1968 Lineage, Structure and the Supernatural: The Kafa of South West
Ethiopia PhD Thesis, Boston University of Boston.
Osterland, David C. 1978. The Anuak Tribe of South Western Ethiopia: A Study of its Musk within the Context of its Socio-Cultural Setting PhD Dissertation. Urbana University of Illinois
Pankhurst, .Alula 1986. The Social Dimensions of Famine, in Proceedings of International Congress of Ethiopian Studies, Moscow
Sishagn, Shumet 1985 The Economic Basis of Conflict .Among the Nuer of Communities in Proceedings of the Third .Annual Seminar of the P
-ja Will^
c
--------------------------------- ------------- ------------------------------------------------------- - —TphU1 T.AMS-l LG Baro-Akobo Rher Basin Integrated Development Mast
3B-40i5 omK> __________- -- -------- ----- ----------- -----------
_c
ANNEX 3C economic infrastructure
ANNEX 3C
ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURES
S UlG B^XXkiibc River Basin Integrated Development Muter PlanwinNllCS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURES -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CONTENTS
^CTlOy......................................................................................
( AVAILABLE data....................................
ftoad Network . .
Airports . .............................................
■; Ports and River Traffic .
4 Electric Power
jJ,J General .............. .................... ............. .....
Demand forecasts.......... ...... ............................. T 1.4J SE CCTapac OR IityN wSTitIhi TUn tTheIO BNarS o~Akobo basin'
I
II i • 21
Road Sector -■
Air Transport Sector Electric Power
s
................................. 9
........................... • ii 9
J . 4. .1
3. SECTOR TARGETS AND PLANNING TO DATE..IP
11
•* *
• .•
• n
Road Sector Targets and Constraints Plans for Future .Airport improvements — Plans in the Electric Power Sector
 10
. 12
12
4. METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH TO THE TRANSPORTATION SECTOR.. 13
-I
4.U
Methodology for Estimating Future Road Traffic
 ......13
1/.2 —.................................................
Methodology for estimates of cargo movements and truck traffic..................................Is Methodology for estimates of passenger vehicle traffic1 ~
1: Methodology for Estimating Future Air Traffic.
‘ ' -
*- development options
’ • ?raposed road improvements .. 
 21
5-J.I
i/,2
Uj
SjJ
5
-1. Pm. 
ehabihtation, upgrading or construction of trunk roads and main links
finstruction of new trunk roads and major links................................................. bilnaiion and Upgrading of key Regional Roads-
t7a, 'nR a,]d expansion of road networks w ithin the H credos............
- ’r1" ■■“
T
..... ,
.................. ....................... 19
. .21 
r
P ™posL ^ITpon Improvements ...................................................... ....
?m P overnents in the Electee Power Sector........................................................... ............
 21
24
26
......28
.. 31 
.....................34
, ^fnficatlofl.............................................................................................................................. J4
6:
T
F
B
asls
er 8etieratl°».................................................................. ................. .......
Review /^timating Project Benefits .. ........................ ................... ............ ......................
F
Ro ^ ofBt
nefit and Costs..........................................................................
S
•*0. 1A1PR0VemenT priorities.............................. -.................... ......... 42
and TELECOMMUNICATIONS-
^i ^Situation
S ICes
«Q ^Sery ;.......................................
............ Z....
■4 -
' -
oflh e Future Needs . 
.....45
. 45 
45 
........... 45 
. .46
fiaru-Attobo River Basin loieEriied Dcidopmcfi Master PlanSOCIO-ECONOMICS
9 FURTHER STUDIES....
......................................
9.1 Road sector .................................................
.........................
9.2
93
Air travel and airport improvements Electric Power
.................................
- 47
APPENDICES..........................................................
TABLES
..... -47
................... ..
Table !
Table 2 
Table 3 
Table 4 
Table 5 
Table 6 
Table 7
Traffic by road length (1993)
.Airport characteristics
Domestic air passenger traffic (arrivals and departures)
Projections of truck traffic on trunk roads and main links
Projections of passenger vehicle traffic on trunk roads and main links Future domestic air passenger traffic .Arrivals and Departures
Telephone connections in the Project Area ...........................................
ACRONYMS
 •• 4 5
...... - 5
........... . 19 
 .20 
•• 45
ADT ................... Average Daily Traffic
B/C Benefit/Cost
CSA Central Statistical Authority
EELP A Ethiopian Electric, Light and Power Authority 1RR Internal Rate Return
NPV .. Net Present Value RR Rural Road
oaro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development w-
ii^COSOMI^
ANNEX 3€ ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURES
on plCTlON
[N'T * 
1
ed primarily with three elements of infrastructure, which serve both the
j^ev i*cunC population of the towns and small cities of the Project Aiea: roads. 
pot>ulati°n and f A fourth element, ports, is touched upon briefly but. because of
^its'and eiect >c % the two river ports in the area, little is said about this element. The
f
J/iri lirnite£! r?,nc°power is confined to a description of the existing infrastructure, 
,J *Le t of electee p 
n
& and iector^p 
ejc sl
'-
development of oower generation within the basin is fully
na sUte of post and telecommunications, and an appraisal of
»'“td “S# ’ddrcsscd ‘"'Ct“ple' 8
yufe
cover other areas of existing or potential economic activity, such as pts report docs no forestrv fisheries and tourism all of which subjects are addressed in iicustrial developme* ’ 1 belong to the private sector The projected growth in these
^te «P°rts
prov
ide a Targe part of the justification for the development of the
S
sow® > ° h is indKd „ pre-condition of economic growth
Tte major share of the work on the rural infrastructure sector has been carried out over a one arxtth period, during which time existing networks or facilities have been defined, estimates af future demand prepared, possible improvements evaluated and a program of future investments developed The time available for undertaking the amount of work necessary to xeet the requirements of the sector has thus been very limited Furthermore, it has been tttssary to base the estimates of future demand for infrastructure upon existing very ztiminarv figures and broad assumptions, as described below in the section on atthodology.SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC infract*
-------------------------------------- ------------
1, available data
l.l Road Network
Information on the current road network, ongoing construction activities improvements, planning level costs and the organisation of the road sector h" from a range of sources These include prior studies, mapping t scales 0/1 
5 51^ addi,'o?a. 
a
2 bta:"^
1 6 3n°' °Oa
I 50,000, documents obtained from the Ethiopian Road Authority, interview *’>0’0o° arc of the Ethiopian Road Authority and quasi-private transportation entc ' * nieiTll>^ importantly, field observations by member of the counterpart team The * * 
mapping of roads in the area is considered to be that showm on the 1 250 000 m0St accurait were digitised for use in the GIS and checked against more recent 1 50 0< ™PS individual weredas The resulting maps of the existing roads, categorised bv cl ° ^
:
design standards, are presented in Volume IV Map Album, pages 5 & 6 * r
information, important for determining improvement priorities and the appropriaT" °'h"
particular roads, such as the location of proposed resource developments or the linuurf i?
most important watershed forests, should be incorporated in the final phase of the
Planning exercise for cross checking certain assumptions made here in order to estab'iri
future traffic levels and develop proposals for future roads.
The primary' source of information on current plans for road improvements has been the Road Sector Development Plan, covering the 1997-2007 period, which was recenrr. prepared by the Planning and Programming office of the Ethiopian Road Authority TLi shows the road improvements to be carried out during the plan period, as well as showint which of the improvements are currently funded Information on the organisation of the rose sector, as well as data on road construction costs were obtained through interviews with members of the Ethiopian Road Authority The Road Sector Development Plan provided another source of information on construction and maintenance costs
standards (i e ‘tcdrn0St r°ad network and tabulated information on the rcid condition annroxZL LT?" SUrface- ^"^ther use only and mere track).
running speeds This infoL^^86 30(1 culven clea--ances, seventy of grades and consultant in evaluating the needfaVa'lable nowhere else and has been essentia- for -
®1116 nc«i for improvements
0 1 ab°V* sources reveals that the netw ork of trunk rwJs
(^
major link roads^o^he^ -"
straches of umurfrcS1composes a mixture of all weather roads
partially paved road in‘hr03 * 
that are
. serviceable only in dry weather Theref Tit:
road passes through the cenT” c present tirne- u’hich extends from Metu to * 
as a trunk road linkino c T Pr°-Iect Area and forms part of w hat has becn . 
<ta Sta
Wto Jim~ ““ AM. Ababa There are
and Addis Ababa via Gimh % roJecI Area‘ one ’n *l,e north that b'1^5 AiOia w
thence to Addis Ababa
ar Jot^er in the south, which joins Mizan Tefen l° ]j t of
n
---------
secondary, roads Tosethei w iT^ r°ads 316 COrnP,ementcd by a series of ^^ytes, t*®. north-south routes (one JA Central trunk road- ^ev form three east-w«J
a route ,hat cuts throug
'
LG
i^te<inied De^^ntSla««-pl’n
2ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURES
0
s0Clo^ ?"”
from the northeast toward the southwest. Not all of these road links arc usable during the JirL'a 3Sl>n and some require four-wheel drive vehicles even during drv months, 
the >‘a,n' ’
-th io south, the east-west trunk and major link roads are
F rpm ^j^i^Kehe-Chmiia-Alem Teferi-Inangn-Gimbi Outside the Project Area this major
j [nx road joins the trunk route that goes to Nekempte and Addis Ababa. Between Gidami and Kebe the road is not passable during the rainy season. (From a point east of \iern Teferi there is an a alternative route through Yubdo to Guyi or a regional road 
anc j thence north to Gimbi)
^-urj
fi n
, _//flrt^-(7irmAeZiJ-Rure-f7orp-.Vcrw-yflj,’u-jBerfe/e From Gambeia east this road 
is part of the Lrunk road noted above East of Metu. portions of the road arc paved and 
the work of upgrading this road is continuing
(Up |n the south, there arc two major link roads from Tept io the east One extends directly to a junction at Shishinda with rhe trunk road from Mizan Teferi lo Jimma, the other road passes through Mizan Teferi and thence to Jimma
From west to east, the north-south routes are
(!) One which consists of two separate pieces, since there is no effective road between Gidami and Chema (There may still be a track) The northern half includes the road through Kurmuk-Asosa-Bambesi-Begi-Gidanu, though south of Bambesi the road is not passable in the rainy season. The southern half passes through Chema-Mugi- Ga mb ela-Abobo-Lake Tata (or Gog). The road from Abobo to Lake Tata is a new road built as a part of the Abobo Dam Project The entire length is considered to be a major link road, except between Asosa and Bambesi, where h is part of the trunk road that links Asosa with Nlekempte and Addis Ababa.
G) The second major link road passes through Gtmbi-Guyi-Metu-Gore-Masha-Tepi-Mizan Teferi- nearby coffee plantations, and continues as a local road to the refugee camp at Dima, where it is interrupted by the Akobo River (Points south of the river must be reached from Maji.) In the north, from the junction south of Gimbi to the vicinity of l^uco this is only a dry season road, as is the road south of the coffee plantations below Mizan Teferi
f2a)
East of Mizan Teferi there is an alternative route, going south from the road to Jimma. uvough Shewa Gimira to Maji This, also, is a dry season only road, which is currently 
' ng rebuilt and is not always open to traffic
(3) qp I
e thud route noted above, which extends diagonally through the centre of the Project joins Chanka-Tejo-Rob Gebeya-Dembidolo-Gambela Between Dembidolo and 
rn eia the direct route is passable only in the drv season, so vehicles generally take
■ longer route through Chema and Mugi
c
trie nra; rOads and bx^,._ju, mn^ math l ds auand m us acajaorvjj lucink r u aoauuve ds de luun ui scribecd a uuuui bovec fs ui or n. m tiheicl out wuiul jinecivms ofg a network serving f ‘ rea *5 nuniber of the roads in this network have been built in recent years, partly 
Qar b act’ '^
v
es *^e UNHCaRct aivind a tiesr of e i tn good c he UNHondi CR at nd are in good condition Examples include the road 
^°lt' how C 3 t0 JTari£ 311 Gurgen and the road from Gore
_.i to Mizan Teferi. At the same
theV£r' P
resence Severa
i
CVer’ the^ s prtreetscehencse of of Lhe seve mraalj sortr 1etches of the major link roads that are not passable ,' rain- season, or possibly nor at all. means that substantial portions of the Project
T AMS-VLG Bani-Akobo River Batin Integrated De*clopment Master PlanSOCIO-ECONOMICS
annex 3C economic infras
Area are isolated du*>8 °f th' >ear S,nce )™>™un1 Io 
r
upcraLofllKW portions of .he network of major link roads that are n °
rsinv season to all-weather standards
As noted above, this network is supplemented by a system of regional roads towns that are not on the main roads and the many small villages in the
1»!»
P«sak| *
e
Wer«t
regional road system consists of: ntryside ia) roads that serve a number of villages or productive units and-link
basic network and 
P°>nts o
n
(b) purely local roads that serve only a few settlements or farms and may dead id 
linking with another road 
Most of these are dry weather roads, built initially to low standards, poorly maintaj erf are in generally poor condition, so they arc not passable much of the vear Indeed 
Cnd "^ocl
little more than two ruts penetrating, the bush These roads are seldom raised above
prevailing grade, lack side ditches and have few, if any. drainage structures In several casts
the lack of bridges means that, if vehicles are unable to negotiate the fords, or if rivers are
deep as a result of rain, the roads are closed and people and goods cannot reach their
destinations.
While the upgrading of the basic network may be one priority, improvement of key feedr roads and local roads in the regional network should also proceed on the basis of the nuir.br of people served and the consequent level of benefits Also, as development proceeds, certs’ regional roads may be upgraded to the status of major link roads
The Ethiopian Road Authority maintains several permanent traffic count stations within th* Project Area and carries out 7-day classification counts three times a year in February. Jj and November in order to record, respectively the high, low and medium levels of vehiedr traffic TAMS TJLG was provided access to a copy of the counts made in February 
which showed the following volumes during what is considered to be the high traffic p^L
Table 1 Traffic hy road length (1993)
Cars
Buses
Trucks
Trailers
Batyl - Metu
Gore - Gambela Gimbi - Dembidolo Metu - Gore
Metu - Algae Nekempte - Bure
■■
Source Ethiopja^ad Autfonty
be considered™ ,?
4 f’8Ures arc
 believed to reflect a period of relatively b’g ’
h
becons.dered.nAcauveofa rather low level of overall economic
1 A.MS-ILG B*ro-Ak^Ri,er Basin Integrated Development
4
,0
PU '’ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURES
datively large volume of trucks between Gimbi and Dembidolo is perhaps of yea r Evidently, the route through Gimbi is favoured by many truckers over the more
join ‘
6 nter
[0 (jambeia, passing through Bedeie. Metu and Gere, because there are fever
direct rjLI[C ^,jiere tbey feel they rrtav experience difficulties, Otherwise. they would
«
:hc
 -
diren road
1.2 Airp°rtS
O n on airports in the Project Area has been obtained from the Civil Aviation lntorma^ £tblOpian Airlines, which appears to be reasonably up to date This
A “tn°
at On
i indicates that there arc 6 operational airports in the Baro-Akobo Basin, plus
pother 3 airfields in or near the basin that are listed as "active but not operational" The Client features of the six operational airports are as follows
T*blc2 Airport characteristics
Airport/Airfield
Runway Length & A/C Operated Surface Features
Width(m)
Gambela
2520 X45
.All A/C Concrete Pvmt
Dcmbidolo
1250 x 50 Twin Otter Grass on Clay
Soil
Asosa
1020x50
Twin Otter Grass on Clay
Soil
Gore
1190 x 55
Twin Otter Turf
Tepi
1300x45
Twin Otter Earth-Very Rough
Tum (Maji)
)100 x60
Twin Oner Not Specified
Source Civil Aviation Authority
0 -*i 4 j
-ar as it is known, Gambela is the only airport with any navigation aids. Since the power 'nc serving the airport has been out of service for a time, however, the current operating 
s.at'js of these aids is not known.
decent passenger traffic at the operational airports in the Project .Area has been as follows Table 3 Domestic air passenger traffic (arrivals and departures)
Airport
Gainbela P mbid^io'
1994 1995
e
1992
7319
3,923
Year
1993
4,133
3,690
4,937
3 101
-
_ Ascsa
Gore
1991
4,699 2,S87 1235
1,255 826
U85
X
1.458 2,291
2,373
1.905
1&94
1.431
2,437
2,178
Source - Ethiopian Airlines
—
5,348
3,400
2,502
1871 3,560 3J79
' 
1
1AMS-ULG Biro-Aknt.0 Riser Btoin Integrated Development VfsRcr PlanSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC infract
has been the case in much of East Africa, growth ,n passenger traffic at th, r
Xotts has been relatively modest and there >s no clear trend While the P > * Uo
been the scene of border d!sturbances and large population movements during ha, 
. ime the impact of this unrest upon travel to and from the area <s not known and I °f
lack of growth at Gambela and Dembidolo may be attnbutable to the lack of SUffi of
on the aircraft flying to the area At the last four airpons listed, however, there h* ** steady and significant rise in the number of passengers flying into and out of th J> r been ’
>U'O
seats
e
in spite of the fact that Gambela has the only airport with a paved runway capable of u heavier aircraft
1.3 Ports and River Traffic
In the past, the Baro and Pibor Rivers have been used during periods of high water f movement of goods to the Sudan and between port facilities at Jikawo and Tiraol in al • Wereda Because of unstable political conditions and a changing economic "environ.™- however, commerce between Ethiopia and the Sudan has virtually disappeared ar-'" unlikely to reappear in the same form
n ^ln?
Furthermore, use of the Baro River for the movement of cargoes is not feasible durinE the d-. season, because of inadequate water depth. Jikawo was damaged by fire several years iS;, and its site is understood to be. at least temporarily, abandoned
Finally, a new road is currently being built which will, hopefully, provide a year-round link betw een Abobo. south of Gambela, and Tirgol
In view of these developments, there appears to be little future for river transport, other rha for the possible accommodation of tourists Except in that context, therefore, ports are not considered further
1.4 Electric Power
1.4.1 General
\ irtually all electric power throughout Ethiopia is provided by the Ethiopian E!ec-nt" L- an Power Authonty (EELPA), a government-owned utility. Information on me Alj e ectnc system and future plans has been obtained both throueh discussions wrt orovides
Director of Corporate Planning and a review of earlier study documents
power through two distinct systems the Interconnected System (ICS) which supph cS;
s5
• e ectncity generated in Ethiopia and a number of small self contained '
Jhe capaaty of the power statrons supplying the ICS in 1995 was 370 M* At P'*' 4/0 °fthc P°Pula”on is supplied with electricity
1.4.2 Demandforecasts
of
St in the§IC?wlf'C COnsumPlion within the SCS in 1995 was 550kWh p«,r resource-constraint’"^6^ d°ub,e this at 1260 kWh Growth in sPeClfirespe^’
6 ^^buth^averaged 3.4% and 4.9% for the SCS and thejCS^>
TAMS-l LG Baro-ALobo River BauThn^ateTbevcIopment Mustcr pl*n
6^^onomtcs
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURES
I esc figures into perspective, the specific consumption in Uganda is 3700 kWh. 
Ta Pal teS^hat the present consumption is considerably constrained The overall growth 
^hich ' d j p
n
e
eri ds on both the increase in specific consumption and the the growth of
cf denia connected to either the SCS or the ICS Various national projections have been 
erage being a growth rate of 9% per annum
; j ? Capacity' within the Rarit-Akoho basin
'- h' the Baro-Akobo Basin, most of the towns with electric power arc served by small ^ sc’^or hydroelectric plants The FCS does not extend to any town within the basin at present.
, ,al of :he plants in the Project .Area is the small hydroelectric installation of 710 kW that S^ves Mizan Teferi or the diesel unit in Asosa The unit in Asosa operates on a shift basis and because of its limited capacity, acts as a restraint upon the amount of water provided by the town water system
The only larger system in the Basin is the one that draws its power from the 5 MW hydroelectric plant on the Sot River and serves Gambefa, Dembidolo and Mem on an SCS A recent planning study prepared by the National Urban Planning Institute stales that 42% of the people in the Gambela area have access to electric power but consumption is only a traction of the available capacity. Plans have been formulated for expanding the output of the Sor River plant to 10 MW but EELPA intends to first extend a new 132 kV line to Bedelc before undertaking any expansion This line will eventually link up with Metu so that the Dembidolo Gambela/ Metu system will be part of the ICS
1
That stud.
_
lay rcf[ ' EOtcs 31 so that families dwelling in houses with thatched roofs cannot apply for electnc power This 
~'~'~——^LjJ:Oriccrn over potential fire hazards.
___________ ________ _____________________
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akaixi River Basin Ini pirated Development Master Plan
7SOCIO-ECONOMICS
annex 3C economic INFRast*.
■ — ——^LCT||'^S
2. SECTOR INSTITUTIONS
2.1 Road Sector
The law establishing the Ethiopian Road Authority states that the Authority h responsibility for all roads within the country This includes establishment of road*' Pnnia^ the planning and design of road improvements and the construction and maintenanc^f^5 throughout the country except in major urban areas
In the case of trunk roads and major link roads, the Authority exercises its responshT directly, using consultants and construction contractors as appropriate, in addition to its . staff With respect to regional roads, the Authority also manages road construction forT regions and provides technical assistance, at the present time
Ender the new law that grants the regional governments greater autonomy, however, repots are now able to undertake the planning construction and maintenance of regions
systems on their own within the limits of their resources and without reference to the Ethiopian Road Authority
01 roads
Thus, there is some inconsistency in the present legal framework, which the .Authority hopes will be resolved in a manner that will allow it to retain control over design and constriction standards system wide plans and design practices
The Ethiopian Road Authority' is divided into district.’! for the purpose of managing the raid system and maintaining the roads themselves. The district lhat currently includes the Baro- Akobo basin is based in Jimma
For road maintenance each district is further subdivided into sections, each of which » responsible for maintaining from 120 to 150 kms of road, depending upon the road sun*« Sections within the Jimma District include those based in Gambela, Metu, Dembidolo. A ■ Mizan Teferi. Gimbi and Asosa. plus Bedele, Nekempte and Bonga - outside the
Area (A new district is being formed that will be in Nekempte and will take over ® and Asosa Sections ) Gambela is also the site of project maintenance for the roads in er) that are now under construction As such, it has the capability to undertake minor eq . -
maintenance
Most sections have no facilities or staff for any equipment maintenance Jir”ir'done’ a: capacity for minor repairs and preventive maintenance but major work must be Authority's Central Repair Shop in Addis Ababa. Staff members at the Y °” ' Is the lack of serviceable equipment is a major problem at the district and section
A th
The Ethiopian Government intends to establish a dedicated "Road construction and maintenance as early as July of this year At present the 3 fijr> Thk R? the va7us met"hariisms for collecting and disbursing the moneys
in««S,r ,S expcctcd ,0 receive these monevs from fuel taxes, inspect ion lees
i-
TaM
^ LG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development
1
8, Air Transport Sector
5eer. indicated that other airlines could enter into similar agreements with rhe Authority, should they wish.
2J Electric Power
As noted above, electric power for almost all of Ethiopia is provided bv the Ethiopian Electric Power and Light Authority, or EELPA It should be noted, however, that private investment in electric utilities is now permitted, though it is limited to "small" capacity systems (The term 'small" has not been clearly defined )
EELPA operates like any other utility; it generates and distributes power which it sells to individual customers at a price that is intended to enable it to recover its investment
i-CTLG Bnro-Aknbo River Bas io Integrated Development Master Plan
9SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFIUSTRLct
. ^E §
3, SECTOR TARGETS AND PLANNING TO DATE
3.1 Road Sector Targets and Constraints
The Ethiopian Road Authority has recently issued its Road Sector Development, pi outlines targets for the 10 year period from 1997 to 2007. indicates priority rod during this period and notes the sources of hinds for some of these project Fundi* h secured for a little less than 12 % of the 10 year program, though commitmenuh received for another 42%. Thus, funding remains as the chief constraint
8
been
bcen
Development Plan and priorities are set forth in this document in the follow intlie
importance: B Or er of
• access to ports
* access to existing resource areas
• access to new resource area
• access to food deficit area
• balancing the distribution of road infrastructure among regions
In line with these priorities, the Development Plan sets forth a number of ongoing and proposed projects, according to whether they involve rehabilitation, upgrading or new construction and whether the roads are trunk roads, major links or regional roads Projects are also grouped into Phases I and II, each of which is five years long W ithin the Baro-Akobc Project Area, the following road projects are included in the Development Plan
Rehabilitation of Trunk Roads
No roads in the Baro-Akobo Basin are included in this category, though both the road from. Addis Ababa to Jimma and the road form Addis Ababa to Gedo (60% of the distance to Nekemte) are included. Financing has been secured for both these roads.
Upgrading of Trunk Roads
Ongoing- Phase I, finance secured
Jimma -Mizan Teferi 198km Gravel to A S.D. 196.454,000 Birr
Proposed for financing - also Phase 1
Metu - Gambela 176 km Gravel to A. S.D 190,819,000 Bin 
Gtmbi-Asosa
234 km Gravel to A S.D 253,703.000 Bin
outside^
The roads from Nekempte to Gimbi and from Dembi to Bedele, which arc Project .Area, are also proposed for financing in Phase I.
Phase fl includes no roads in the Project Area
Upgrading of Major Link Roads
Phase I includes no roads in the Project .Area
Proposed for financing in Phase II
TAMS-ULG Barn-Akobc River Basin Integrated Develops enl
10^
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRASTRL’CTURES
|0
. cono»u __
e
cs
^a-Aboto S2ta G-avd m-Grav.,, 
rojd from Nekemple ro Bedde. outside Ihc The
phase H
r of New Link Road\
upgrading in
Loing r- *inance secured 
“ {frobela-Jikawo 
120km.
Wacha-Maji 135km
goosed for financing in Phase H
Aboto -Godere 150km
Grave]
Ciravel
Gravel
70,300,000 Birr 114,477,000 Birr 138.990,000 Birr
A road from Asosa to Guba, north of the Project Area k ~
Phase n. 
J
lS ais° pr°P°5ed for financing in
-aeRoaa b 
Development plan also sets forth a 10-year investment program for regional fegions but does not rist specific roads and. since the BaroAkobo
>n includes partial regions, it is not possible to define how much of the program may be ilocated to the Project Area
brfde/tfty 
-fcRoad Sector Development Plan also establishes wo generalised targets for road density Elbe countn- at the end of each phase of the Plan The nation-wide target for the end oi Kase I. In Year 2002, is 0.46 km per 1,000 population and 27 km per 1.000 square kms, with tor, 6S percent of the roads in 11 good" condition. The Plan does not specify whethe. or not t«sc targets include regional roads.
^interesting to note, however, that road density in the Project Area at the present times is
•1*11073 km per 1000 population and 22.2 km per 1.000 square kms, if only the trunk roads
•^JO: links are taken into account Some 59 percent of these roads are estimated to oc in condition at the present time (Indeed, if trunk roads alone are considered, near.y 90 
.-«ii ire m good Condinon) rhll5 jf on]y those roads which are the direct responsibility o ^kctA^1411 Authority are considered, lhe density and quality o> the roa me
ea 216 close to, or exceed, the national targets for 'i ear 200x.
rr C j J .
l ° thls pic:uie’ ts the situation with regard to the regionalra3ki
' I t»r * >4^° °fi ^ev regional roads that have been identified m tne , 
<^'“ b= considered^ “good" condition, while another I >
°r being rebuilt At least 62 percent are found to be in poor condition
l
-
“"dc'
^cerPfoundSton^Uded in the Pro^am outlined
'n excerMi economically viable by the Ethiopian Road 
^ C'e>' are S Of <he proposed major link road between Abo 0 an 
lhe R^d
a d ZortTSfoerXre, 
S
/Were wereda
Q jn a
“ "«ivens" »the tore road program proposed by TAW>
( ! ' j;
’2 
'<^^UUatershed
-
has such enormous potential tor “^
g^oboS^that___________________
J CJ alternative
NlS -U,G Baro-Akobo R^er BaMnlnicpratcdiyt'cJopin*"' Maf,wPUn
nSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC
? F±^CTlRts
route passing through areas of savannah and open forest, further south, is sueoo 
this annex 
,e ^ in
Going beyond the roads already proposed by the Ethiopian Road Authority, th u 
ea
on the density and condition of roads in the Project Area suggest that few, if an &Ove
roads or major links will be needed in the early years of the planning period Ins?’ 7*,nci
should be given to the rehabilitation, improvement and possible expansion ofre ’
and. to a lesser extent, to upgrading major links that are currently dry weather road'°nal 03<ls
the more densely populated areas in the north of the Area. 
s
3.2 Plans for Future Airport Improvements
No information has been received to date regarding plans for future airport improv 
The urban plan developed by NUPI for Asosa does note, however, that the airport $ 
that town will need to be relocated, since it occupies a site close to the centre of the
area, where land is rapidly increasing in value and should be dedicated to urban uses
3.3 Plans in the Electric Power Sector
At the national level and international level, regional interconnectors have been the subject of
several studies These have included connections to Djibouti, Eritrea. Sudan and. possibly 
Kenya
The regional interconnector to Sudan was found to be technically, economically and 
financially sound and could have an impact on the Baro-Akobo Basin but, because of
political factors, the emphasis has shifted to improvements within Ethiopia, itself and this
project is on hold
In addition to the 132 kV line from the Sor plant to Bedele, which is mentioned above, there are plans to extend a 132 kV line to Gimbi from Gedo within the next 2 1/2 years Another small diesel plant is expected to be installed in Tepi in about 2 months and there are plarjw a diesel set in Gidami.
In the post-2000 period, it is intended that the Inter Connected System (ICS) be extende-^ localities in the Baro-Akobo Basin Detailed planning for such an extension must aw3‘ completion of the Integrated Master Plan Study itself and decisions on the location, timing of hydroelectric installations within the Project Area
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development
12i0ClO.s«’ 2^__________________________
N
ANWEX * ECO”°>nc infrastructures
METHODOLOGICAL approach TO THE TRANSPORTATION sector Methodology for Estimating Future Road Traffic
4.1-
, Wcnt with the priorities of the Road Sector Development P]an anJ
L ^oses. further improvements to roads :n the project .Area, particularly those in the regional
raid systems, 
.
. permit farmers in the area to obtain such inputs as may be needed to increase crop 
production to levels that will allow them to improve their families' diets and produce 3 
surplus;
, allow these farmers to ship their surplus production to nearby markets and more
distant centres,
• permit extension w orkers to assist farmers in adopting modem techniques.
■ increase the viability of potential large scale agricultural schemes in irrigated areas by improving their access to labour and markets,
• permit rational exploitation of mineral resources in areas where they have been identified
t addition it should be noted that, by determining which roads are to be upgraded and which 3iay be specifically excluded from a program of improvements, some control may be exercised over the cutting of trees in vital watershed areas, as has been noted earlier
^order t0 evaluate Lhe effectiveness of the interventions proposed in the road sector in * r4D mg [he people in the Project Area to realise the objectives noted above, it has been -fcessary to develop a methodology for estimating the magnitude of future agricultural
:
r
jQs cs, plus the production and consumption of other goods that will be permitted by an h °ad systcm ’n Project Area. This methodology' is described in the following
^Itodology for estimates of cargo movements and truck traffic
’oad traffi° ^eterrn*ne the effect of proposed road improvements, estimate future volumes of
3BCjftsary t
<
asscss tbie potential benefits to the population of the Project Area, it has been 
^eis^f ° evefop a set of assumptions regarding the changes that may take place and the °rtomic activity that may result
^^ates of er
Abases for C in Years 2000’ 2015 later vears, founded on these assumptions, form ** ^ctor d^epr°ject descriptions, pro-formas and calculations of benefits for the different
r<1 ^lo meni options
P
lf
that ?C^-S 31-6 made within the Project Area and no changes take place, it ra ,c volumes would increase somewhat as the population rises ut ' s
iA ^S-VLG BaroAkabo River Basin Intcgr^D^
13SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFIUstriv
—----------------------------
increases would be constrained by a further deterioration of roads, particularl - as routine and periodic maintenance continue at current levels but no other w^ [ ?
e
,ona! rOads r * is do
ne
3
On the other hand, if various interventions, including development
improvements, etc are carried out, new economic activities will arise and far SChernes' ro^ will have access to extension services, to agricultural inputs such as fertilisers"^ 'he Vea outside their immediate area It is expected that many of these farmers will r ‘° niaxke’s incentives with the adoption of new methods of cultivation that will increase .1/10 swt to levels that will allow them, first, to improve the nutrition of their own familie*"
generate agricultural surpluses, which they will want to send to markets In addit' 
t0
these farmers will want to expand their cultivated area and population growth w°n 50016of
new farms being created within the constraint of available land 
Further increases may stem from the introduction of irrigated agriculture Bevond a the Russian proposals, potentials in this area have been fully assessed’ and prioriteTh been assessed to provide the basic elements of this sector in the Master Plan
~
1 result «
Elsewhere, in the lower plain, improved animal husbandry practices are expected to result in potential shipments of meat to urban areas outside the basin All of this increased activity wil' be a major source of increased road traffic.
Other resource development schemes that have been proposed, so far, include rehabilitation of the area of gum Arabic production betw een Kurmuk and Mugi, which has produced up to 16,000 tonnes in recent times (including, also, some frankincense and mynh), establishment
of 750 ha of new gum arabic plantation area, development of 40,000 to 50,000 ha of plantation for the production of eucalyptus poles in the forested areas of 7 weredas, below the escarpment, that are too severely degraded to restore and, finally, exploitation of some of the mineral belts that have been identified
With the help of the team's agronomist and other resource specialists, the volume of goods expected to be generated within, or attracted to, each w'ereda in the Project Area has beer, quantified for the Years 2000 and 2015. It has been conservatively assumed that, in the years following 2015, traffic volumes will continue to grow in parallel with the population respect to agricultural production, it has been assumed that, in both the upper basin an d plain, a pattern of smallholders will continue to prevail but that greater productivity achieved in the areas of the plain that are not subject to flooding The proportion ottar^ adopting new agricultural methods in Year 2000 is taken as 10% and this is expecte to 
to 67% by sometime before Year 2015. It is assumed that about a third of the continue to use more traditional methods in later years, so the rate of adoption f the
o
methods will not increase by much, once 67% is reached After allowing for a own
increased production to be retained by each farm family to improve the ie^ j
a CLi ale
j d a5
members, average surpluses per hectare of land under cultivation have een follows 231 kg in 2000 and 1323 kg in the year that the higher adoption rate i the upper basin, and 173kg and 2126 kg in the same years in the plain no „ a I* these surpluses, it has been estimated that average inputs of fertiliser, etc o needed in 2000 and 283 kg/ha by 2015 or earlier In order to estimate the tonn.^ or from each wereda, these figures have been multiplied by the number 0 expected to be under cultivation in that wereda in the target years
in
moved to of tl*
-------- - '
■
~
_ 
2 A comparable assumption is made for the economic analyses in the Road Scctqrj^glgP^^
TAJVIS-UJLG BaroAkobo River Basin Integrated Development Master
14
PlaTlANN£X 3C ECONOM1C <NFRASTKlCTURrs
m
S are received in May and June Therefore, the resulting estimate have Je'
1 pCTIOlL between December and March, while the
P rovide aVeragC anJ V° UmCS
" JJ i. ■ some 190,000 ha in the three weredas of the lower plain are devoted primarily t0 and this may nse by 4.5% annually between now ^d year 20C€ bv
div between 2000 and 2015 Estimates of meat shipments from this area are baaed ^’^rage of one livestock unit per hectare, which would lake five ye?n t0 reach
*° ^iae and have a dressed weight or 250 kg It is assumed that slaughtering and 
n
si** „ would take place near the production areas
g
■ mins °utn arable and related products, approximately 2,800 trees per hectare translates L ’n >vel of2 8 tonnes per hectare, or 2,100 tonnes total in the new area, plus an estimated "-OCQ to 15,®° tonnes in the rehabilitated areas, by the year 2015, Since it takes 15-20 ^5 for trees to mature, production in year 2000 will still be modest. The production area r, located in the five weredas between Kurmuk and Mugi
Warding the harvesting of eucalyptus poles, it takes several years for these trees, aisa, to ruth a point when they can be harvested, so production in the Year 2000 will be minimal Before the Year 2015, though, they will have reached a point when it will be possible to cut fiirni three years out of four, with an average annual yield of up to 1,080 poles per hectare. BKiute of competition and the distance to major urban centres, however, only 20 percent of this figure is assumed to be actually marketed
Traffic that may be generated by mining activities cannot be estimated at this time Gold is
currently mined on a smail scale but it is separated from the base rock on site and foe
resulting metal can be carried in a man’s pockets Some other metals have been identified but
^ clil^d studies have been made and they are unlikely to be exploited in the near future
»? traffic that may result from mining in the first half of the planning period would most
> come from the movement of equipment into foe Project Area rather than the
' ° tnaterials. A nominal allowance, equivalent to about 5-6 trucks per
as een made at each potential mining location 
^Hgener * ^or Construct'On may be found in the upper basin and road building activities towevtr SOrne tra^"lc Potential for foe movement of construction materials arc included, £td other £er,era' estimate of the volume of supplementary foodstuffs, consumer goods ^P^ions*0? 5 lTa^ that will be produced or consumed by the rural and urban
m ne
e
loo ° lhe 1163 ft is estimated that the entire population of the area will generate
^°vt 3og k p&r capita of goods movement in Year 2000 and by 2015 this will increase to 
^'on 500 kT 
s
In addition, it is estimated that foe urban population will generate an
O f ... per CaP*ta of goods movement as a result of their economic activities ar. ^ ^ion 
. rhtse neet^ Overall estimates of truck movements in foe \ ears 2000 and 2 L 
s
"ritie; mates, in addition to the goods movements that are attributable to specuu
^er
to °n car§0
s5
i :? been ?/' analysis for major links, foe amount of cargo generated foe^c
Qit of th
c
t0 be cofeentrated at the wereda town and it has also eer. a ,
O". 
Would S' ^ned for or cristate outside the Project Ar® ••
urban population in a ^eda would corttume tlte t.trx
LG Baro-Xkobo River Basin loie^riited De¥efopff MistW* P
ient
15SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRaStrv
quantity of locally grown food, per capita, as the rural population and that th' 
food would also remain in the wereda. A hand assignment of the goods m hr am°Unt of wereda has then been made to the major links that connect it to the out d ' 'n ^c'-
judgement regarding the routings to be selected and the proportions assien d W°rld’ UsiriE 
when more than one road may be used. 
8 e to each ro^
For minor regional roads and local roads a somewhat different approach has been 
given the scale of this study, these roads are not individually identified a • S*nce’ surpluses and rural consumption within a wereda are assumed to be mobilised ^?CU'tutal regional and local roads in the wereda and average haul distances, estimated from th°nS *** 
the wereda, have been used to calculate the tonne-kms of traffic generated Load factor and number of trucks
e JUe o:’
In the manner described above, the volume of goods moving along each road segment us been estimated for the Years 2000 and 2015 and this volume has, in turn, been convened to the number of trucks The total volume of goods that is calculated represents movements ia both directions and if each truck were to carry a load in only on direction and return empu r. the other direction, it w-ould have a load factor of 0.5. To calculate the number of trucks oc the road, therefore, it would be necessary to divide the total tonnage of goods to be mobilised in both directions by half the capacity of each truck
In interviews with the managers of various trucking enterprises in Addis Ababa, TAMS-llG team members learned that about 20% of the trucks serving routes in the western pan of the country are able to pick up return loads Thus the average load factor is about 0 6. which means that some 20% fewer trucks are on the roads than there would be if all the trucks were to carry a load in only one direction
The typical truck found in the Baro-Akobo Basin at present, is a two axle truck with a capacity of ten tonnes and this size of truck has been used to estimate the number of trucks ir. Year 2000 By the Year 2015, it has been assumed that the load factor will have risen to 0.65, that the average size of truck will have increased to thirteen tonnes and that, on the trunk roads in the area, 30% of the trucks will have trailers The numbers of trucks estimated for trunk roads and major links in Years 2000 and 2015 are presented in Table 4 In the years following 2015, it is conservatively estimated that truck volumes will increase at rates that are 25% higher than the rates of population growth
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master
16E C0^0MlCS
Tibte 4
AXNEX 3C KO^OMIC INraASTROCTUMs
Projections of truck traffic on trunk road, and main linkj
*—r
2000
“—
Trucks
2015
•^Scgn^'
Adjusted Tonues^Ye
ar
Trucks/
Dav-peak
-A vo
Adjusted
Tonnev
Year
c^R0i,d
d^Mclu
<£Snhi Road
137.900
154.900
197.300
308,400
338.600
85 96 122 19[ 209
OR/ - Av g 172
232
358
395
25
36
96.700
174,400
43
77 I
66
ij 0WofYubdp 82
30
54
S
H fY bdc-GuJiSO
cu
^k>[ngijjP _ ___ ______ .-------
^■^Tcfen-Shishoda
87
400.700
505.300
534.300
176
222
235 I
123
156
164
-p-MizanTcfcn
25,600
79.200
15
44
65-
34
138.300
439.200
61
193
43
135
^Tnfcn-JctWor Wndia
115.500*
61.200
636,800 +
280 r
iW Watha -Shishinda*
290.61X1
128
1%-r
90
^shichiDda~ direct Roadj
Mi-Tepi Road
c $ Gimhi-Yirga Degen
izpDcgtfi’Stipc 
S^taNofMeni
27,900
15.100
16
9
73.400
18
10
46
41
42
25
165
30
17
114
“Softo-Gorc 
taUo-kt
(above)
12500
8
4b kt ‘Gccha
5.100 I
4
26
11
fejj-Tqa_____________ ____
13,500
11
8
4
8
29 ■
[8
8
20
This road segment also receives traffic from roads outside the Project Area
- Methodology fff estimates of passenger vehicle traffic
Ot Passen8 vehicles using roads in the Project Area in Years 2000 and 20(5 
er
en estimated using a different approach
and5^165 °f tr&Vel habits’ such as househc,,d
been Out in
,r « •■el. the l data are currently available on the propensity of Ethiopian people to
Wtiai i ^y t
T
3 SOns
 travel and the distance they travel when they do. Furtbemore, 
if it l& COnstra*ned by the poor condition of local roads and the results of such a
Cr e carried out at present, would be misleading
< fQr^ it ha
.’5\ appear rfT beCn necessarv to use a set of assumptions that yield figures which, while
^ iaie
improved^ ’
6 bave no ernpiTical basis and need to be reviewed periodic y, as XnfV be assumed t^t women, particularly, may go to market once each week. 
1Ve' ^Oulj h year’ t0 se
" s ™ part of their own produce (fresh fruit, oney, c
0
4
^ inly within each wereda and may often be on foot
a
hlcle,^4/^
c
e ’i ° hnher awaV’which w°uid req,jire rthiajiar tfansport ipnvate
> two types of travel are estimated, 
’ Is-ULG Ban>-AkobQRi’wBasin Integrated Pe^lopmen^Mwter Plw
17SOCIO-ECONOMICS
^^JCECONOM!^^^
(i) The first type is essentially local travel, for which it is asZZ ' roughly 2 1/2% of the residents of each wereda will travel :ta roads to nearby weredas -half going to the adjacent -J? adjacent wereda and half going two weredas away 
a?1* and ?3 J*}
*<
(ii) The second type is travel outside the Project Area For this travel •
the residents of each wereda will leave the area at least once a vear $ direct route and will generally head east, towards Jima and A^is recognised that some population groups do periodically move with th^ ^’; the border with Sudan, there are no road crossings of the border a: orXi^^ no formal trade. In the future, the road crossing the border near Ku-naJ^^ opened but, while it is difficult to assess the impact of such a move, it B little effect upon road traffic in the short term
'
To estimate the number of vehicles involved, an average of 6 passengers per vende • driver who is not counted) is assumed for local travel in both years 2000 and vehicles would be a mix of trucks, minibuses and four wheel drive vehicles, a-4 conditions improve a small but growing number of private cars For most tra^j Project Area it is reasonable to assume that buses would be used, and that theses
Project , 
nassengers per vehicle in Year 2000, which may rtsetoMoc^
P
^7 “ TabU s Ihows“he eSated number of vehicles, each day. 
?o7y'Ss “ l5°?t conservarlveiy assumed iha. .raffle wi» 50% higher than the rates of population increase.ANNEX 3C economic infrastructures
SOCIO-ECONOMICS
< projection” of passenger vehicle traffic on trunk roads and main links
2000
2015
-R^’^nien'
Local
Pass/Day
L.D.
Passenger Locai
Pass./Day Vehicle Pass Day Day
L.D. 
pass /Day
Passenger
Vehicle.'
Dav
^bcl BilK
fclu ¥
ijSof> J
313
241
274
174
181
274 64
311 4
492 66
916 66
1.023 72
562 492
453 558
364 798
285 1.492
296 1.667
111
92
88
98
106
■javu-Korn^---------- - ------------
- Gid3mi-G,nll?[ Road Cflidiin-JclWofKakc 
lct \v ar lake -Chankd Chanka-Jd WofYubdo
, ^WofYubdo-Guilso 1 rtwiicn-rnnnPO'
121
175
251
251
153
43 23
121 35
355 57
462 61
517 47
155
224
322
322
196
55
155
455
592
662
28
44
70
74
55
frpi-Muan Tcfen Shishuida
Rd
Tcpi-Mizan Tcferi
MitsuiTcfen-Jct V* ofWacha. let W of Wacha-Shishmda Tepi-Sbioshmda- Direct Road)
177
432
297
284
185 38
407 89
538 72
208 57
254 265
561 553
386 723
403 295
52
IB
90 i
78
Gtmbi -Tepi Road
let S of Gimhi-Yirga Degen r^a Degen -Stipe
Supe-jct N of Mciu
Jet N of Mew -Gore
Gere-Lalo Jet
Luilo Jci-Gecha
_ Gccha-Te-pi
191
199
297
(abost)
ri
no
182
96 36 309 155
122 39 323 197
319 63 482 522
(above) 32 (above) (abo\e) 75 21 259 114 43 33 167 65 48 276 1
58
61
09
48
31
49
4.2. Methodology for Estimating Future Air Traffic
As noted earlier, the numbers of air passengers (lying io “d
an d lnrue
•he Baro-Akobo Basin has fluciumed widely in recent years because m*aM'£ “a
shifts in population Furthermore, the lack of seat capacity on 
lAvebeen a restraint on rhe number of passengers at
favoured continued growth Nevertheless, traffic at tour Oi
a strong growth trend during the early 1990's While it is
™g-tenn historical rates of growth or the numbers of an passengers JJ. continued "°™al conditions, further increases in traffic can be expected as ion j as th«eis^on* * 
\ lly lt is assumed that this growth will be comparable to that exp
?> ; « corded bv the International Civil Aviation Organisation dunn j the las. V .
stronger growth is assumed in early years, particularly a: Asosa and Tept, tf
Pavements are carried out
* Gamtaa and Asosa airports. „ „wge of passenger volumes inthe last ™
factors tnieht have area has
to establish any
le
Stl«,?™
«three years is used For Gambela and .Asosa. it is assumed that li
for eslimamt of toe traffic, while at
,Xe ,«re sSem
Se?
Ainiorts, a 25% increase in the number ot mr naselien would
h '“ a vtry short period of time This amount therefore, is added to the: base ye -ii’JJhes^epor.s before projections of future traffic are made Al Gambeia. higher
Baro-AkoboRiver BwnIntetr^dDorJopmcnt Maflcr PhnV1 u-t CU.\ O vl ICS
growth rates are assumed than recent traffic figures would indicate surrounding weredas are expected to have relatively high increased economic activity. A growth rate that is 50% above the expected rateofpLp ‘>. '
t
each period is, therefore, used in estimating future traffic at Gambia J?* growth rates and estimates of future air passenger traffic at each of the in the following table
Table 6 Future domestic air passenger traffic Arrivals lnd I>r
X
Airport
Base
Year
Growth
Rate
2000
Growth
Rate
2015
Ran
Gambela
-
5,145
5.4%
8,820
7.65%
26,650
Dembidolo
3,400
6.75%
5,030
5.4%
11,075
Asosa
2,440
8.1%
4,865
6.75%
12.960.
Gore
1,895
6 75%
2,805
5.4%
6,175
Tepi
3,255
10/8%
6,025
6 75%
16,050
4 -5%pl
Turn (Maji)
2,980
6.75%
4,410
5.4%
9,705
3.ft1 %
These figures would translate in the Year 2015 to about 100 passengespepeai win equivalent of two ATR-72's or a smaller commercial jet aircraft) at Gniea,ifci passengers per peak day at Tepi and lesser numbers at the other airpors Util?
thus be justified at these two airports but less frequent service would still beprcrasu other airports.ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURES
DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
£.
s ! pn.p«'d rMtl
o
fh
tc
The
road improvements in the road sector that are proposed by the project io improve those roads in the Project Area that, because of their present
:eSrt] IS leave large number of people isolated, with no access to needed goods and “ oT1 ? 1 oJi (c markets for their output Related purposes are to bring all roads in a particular ^d^lass up to a uniform and acceptable standard, and to extend regional road networks to r °ti$ 'hat are poorly served or not served at all, where doing so will not open watershed tresis to further degradation (In this context, it is suggested that a minimum acceptable lardard for all but on-farm roads, is a road that is raised above the surrounding land, to allow it to drain properly, and that has an all-weather surface of crushed stone or gravel). Subsequently, it may be proposed that certain roads be raised to a higher class (eg from regional road to major link) to which higher standards apply.
Proposed interventions in the road sector fall into two basic categories, each of which has similar Pro-Formats The first category includes projects for the rehabilitation, upgrading or construction of new trunk roads and major links not already included in the 1997-2007 Road Sector Development Plan, as well as some key regional roads These three types of road projects are proposed below for inclusion in a subsequent ( or parallel) program of improvements on the basis of three factors, (i) the current condition of the road, (ii) the population or potential developments that will be served and (iii) reasonable confidence that me improvement will not further threaten any watershed forest by making it more accessible
-acn of these roads, as well as any important regional road serving a wereda town, is
d 0 f^"
Sl Cai on
.''
is an renio" 7 
l dent’fied by its end points The second category covers the upgrading and
ot 'be networks of regional and local roads with in a single wereda or group these roads are not individually identified but a general standard of coverage
ls as5urned. on the basis of earlier observation, that existing roads at the
A and local level are. for the most part, in poor condition
" ehubihtation, upgrading or construction of trunk roads and main links
Ejects f
a
0r S ectOr
Plan of the Ethiopian Road Authority already includes
surfaced road.PFad*n^ T^e ^irec toads that penetrate the Project Area from gravel -
'°ads to 
am
- S t0 °aved roads. Therefore, outside of possibly widening all bridges on trunk 
not included irnUm of 8 m, clear, between railings, further improvements to these roads are ^dard Df ^TlonS ^e proposals set forth below' However, the consequent need for a higher slructnrBd and°bline Pcr‘°^*c maintenance and, thus, the need for a more effectively 
ener-equipped maintenance organisation is stressed i he .
^^ible incj^
?ro ects
,
j for improving major links within the Project Area are proposed for ° n ln a rofld sector program
^■^anstiuci ti
_ So*ith oj Q. n°nit~south road that extends from its junction with Route 5, just ,n tbi, to its junction with the trunk road from Melu to Bedele, in
ETC BaroAkobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan■^iu-econoMICS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMi ""“b Rura! R<«d Standard RR n 
currently impassable in the rainy seasonaj’ " the southern 46 to 47 km has an .1^
5 Tk
OThm
? 'fl"'rK “Iwuttial il
roadbed, where needed
™e7™bba«5 r"/r°VidinS 0 73 ” Mulders,
gravel subbase and constructing neceswn r,.i. ~ "8 25 Cn) <>fcnZ?H standards The estimated cost of this project is 90to
routine and periodic maintenance will average 2,930,000 Bb^ **
(B l Reconstruct the east-west major link road from Gidami l0 n .
repairs and regrading, plus some widening, from chanka to t
^junction with Route 5, west ofGimbi, in accordance with r'X- S‘
5° The western 73 to 74 km of this road is passable
requires major improvement. while the eastern 107 km has an ,ii u a Work will include the same items as Project (A), above The es-.inXT ** second project is 82,000,000 Birr, while annual maintenance'car
3,500.000 Birr
(C) Reconstruct the north-south major link that joins Bombast with Gitiut
J
Begi, in accordance with Rural Road Standard RR 30, with possible Izter epi, RR 50 Most of this road, about 110-115km long, is suitable only for use b t weather and requires substantial rehabilitation. Work will include raising i®di fa roadbed to ensure adequate drainage, widening the roadway to a ninn providing 0 5m shoulders, placing and compacting 15-20 cm of crushed rod subbase and constructing necessary drainage structures to rhe appropriated standard. The estimated cost of this project is 48,500,000 Bin The average
of maintenance will be 2,200,000 Bin
(D) Reconstruct rfe road from Gaodrela“ to the road from Dembidolo to Chanka m bring ° RuXXdard RR 50. Because of the poor
Gambeia and Dembidolo vehicles
-n
fh
te
direct^1**
7l)tel long road
^jmenance costs are expected to average 2,460.000 r.
22kE COp'oMlC!_
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURES
PRO FORMA for reconstruction of major link roads
Sector Roads
Intervention: Rehabilitation and Reconstruction of Major Link Roads
(Utionale To increase access of population to goods, services and markets
Beneficiaries Primary beneficiaries will be operators of transport services but, as long as a climate of competition is maintained, the entire population will benefit from improved access and lower transport costs
5 Acceptability: Since the work involves the restoration and improvement of existing 
roads, no problem of acceptability is foreseen
6 Application. The only limit on the appropriateness of this intervention is the economic
feasibility of the individual projects
Descriptions
1 Locations; Locations of individual projects are stated in Section 5,1 1(A) through (D) above
Extent Road lengths are given in (A) through (D). above
9 10.
II
12 11
Employment: By permitting the development of new economic activities, the improvement of roads is expected to have a positive impact on all employment,
^ manc>ng Trunk road and major link improvements are funded by the Ethiopian Road 
onty Establishment of a dedicated road fund, which will receive moneys from
sturr2?C5' ^lceri5e fees and vehicle inspections for use by the E ILA, is currently being 
” 4a,ed and is expected as early as July 1996.
Piementation, Design, construction and maintenance will be managed by the E R A mandate na' ^Upport’ ^hls be provided by the ER A, in accordance with its legal
more t^TVre' no,e^ earlier, adequate maintenance of the rebuilt roads will require a
Within tk ^
e
1Ve maintenance organisation, with repair shops and equipment depots
14
15
^Saro-Akobo Basm "
].*
ptoi- .
r
The ERA. legally empowered io initiate and undertake those road for which it has the funds “
-by Wiihin^ flS^s are l^e same as for anv other set of highway projects and considered to ^^aj«eplable range
River Basin Integrated Development Muter Plan
23SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRASTRl.f
16 Sustainability Continued use, operation and maintenance of the prorxK d 
require that the ERA or a successor organisation remains in existence
*'11
17 Environment. In as much as the proposed projects involve the restoration 
road facilities, with only minor alignment improvements, the environment,” °tisi
expected to be minimal.
‘ Epacts are
18 Gender, By providing both men and women with greater access to market nla
more economic opportunities, improved roads should have a positive
lives of both.
pactOntl*
19 Health: Improved roads will provide people in the area with better access to duties r
other health facilities and also permit health workers to reach more people
20. Social Services The effect of improved roads will be much the same as for health
21. Multipliers By opening up, particularly the rural areas, to outside services and tnaarj improved roads are expected to have significant multiplier effects, beyond those that have been identified in estimating future traffic
22 Conflicts, since the road projects involve the reconstruction of existing facilities, :t j expected that conflicts can be minimised.
5.1.2 Construction of new trunk roads and major links
Only one proposed project involves the construction of an entirely new road and to ’ intended as an alternative to a road that is included in the Road Sector Development Pfaui order to avoid potential destruction of much of the remaining watershed forest
alternative is as follows
(E) Construct a new road from a point on the road to Dima about 50km from • Tifari, through Gurafarda, to Gog as a substitute for the road proposed ui Sector Development Plan from Godere (Meti) to Abobo, which would open a of watershed forest to potential destruction It is believed that a route farte pass mainly through savannah and degraded forest land. It is estimat
link road, if constructed to a Rural Road Standard of RR 50, woul more than the Godere-Abobo road, or about 153,000,000 Birr t * provide the wereda town of Gurafarda with an all-weather link to t were constructed initially to, say an RR 30 Standard, the initial_cost 90,000,000 Birr. .Annual maintenance would average about 3,200,
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development
24ffr oM°5tlCS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURES
PRO FORMA FOR NEW MAJOR LINK ROAD
, s«i«r;Roa,JS
*»
• n Construction of a New Major Link Road
onale To increase ,he access of the P°Pulatlon to goods, services and markets, to 
}. de a better link between two communities of the same ethnic group that are now
Pr °L-ated and to reduce the potential for destruction of watershed forest by selecting an 
Native to the route proposed for this major link in the Road Sector Development
Plan
Beneficiaries Operators of transport services and the population of the area,
4 particularly members of the communities in Abobo. Gog, Godere and Gurafarda
Seredas that are now isolated
. Acceptability. Whether this alternative route is acceptable or not will depend upon two factors, which need to be studied further. One is the degree of convenience it offers, compared to the route proposed in the Road Sector Development Plan, the other is the extent to which this alternative truly does avoid the move valuable watershed forests
5 Application Three limitations on the appropriateness of this new major link are its economic feasibility, its relative convenience and the extent to which the road avoids the nigh watershed forest areas
Description
Location and Extent of the proposed new link, are give in(E), above
The answers for Headings 9 through 15 are the same as those provided in the Pro Forma for Projects (A) through (D) and are not repeated here
ItlEjrt
16 ^Suitability See the Pro Forma for Project ( A) through (D)
d^ °
r
*hethr ;.
nment noted above- lhe efficacy of 1,115 ®ltsmabvc b mili»atinS potentially 
gtng environmental impacts will need to be carefully reviewed in the field
Multipliers The answers for these headings are the same as those e in the Pro Forma for Projects (A) through |D).
S The Potential conflict posed by this project is. once again.
the^.r the Proposed road location will avoid the more valuable watershed 
'-^^Pment __________________________________________________ ______________________
^^ULGB^-Akotw River Busin
MMtCr
15ANNEX 3< ECONOMIC
5.1.S Rehabilitation and Upgrading of key Regional Roads
The following projects are presented as being representative of the imnrnv 
carried out on the more important regional roads, in order to provide
wereda towns that do not enjoy such access at present The projects incl dWeather - northern, more heavily populated, part of the Project Area and one in th??
total 332 km in length and, thus, equal a little over a fifth of the roughly lsrwtv Theser^ regional roads in the Project Area
5?
'ntot L_. ,'r&^
of the key 
(F)
Reconstruct the regional road from the junction north of Lalo K'l
thence to Supe, on the main link between Gimbi and Metu in accord '° Dupa Road Standard RR 30 This 83 km road passes through a densely dodmI?
joins two major links that are the foci of Projects (A)'and CB) A_9 km VeaanJ north end of this road and a 20 km segment at the south end are bothm™"1 * ** good condition but the 54 km segment between Lalo Kile and Dupa is und???' need substantial rehabilitation Work in this segment would include raising th?'?J widening the roadway to about 6 m. providing shoulders of 0.5 m. places • compacting 15-20 cm of gravel subbase and construction of drainage strurm?' accordance with appropriate E R A standards In the two end segments, mine-Re work and regrading will be needed The cost of this project is estimated to be 27,300,000 Birr and annual maintenance costs will be about 1,189,600 Birr
(G) Reconstruct the regional road that extends from the junction on the Chanka - Gimbi road west of Yubdo to another junction east of that town, goes south to the town of Debeso and then east to a junction west of Yirga Degen on the major link root beTween Gimbi and Metu This road improvement, which may sene wins developments near Yubdo, would also be rebuilt in accordance with Rural Read Standard RR 30 The first 13.5 km of this road, west of Yubdo, is in good condition xr the condition of the remaining 62 km is either poor or unknown. The items of wed would be similar to Project (F), above and the estimated cost of this prc’ect is
28,400.000 Birr Annual maintenance costs may average about 1,089,300 Bin
(H)
Improve the road from the junction, a few km west of Mizan Teferi, to Dina <w
thence past the airport for Maji, at Turn, to the junction located west
road to Geba Approximately 90 km of this road, between Mizan Teferi and tna^
fair to good condition, though beyond the coffee plantations southwest of _.
it is built to dry weather standards only Just south of Dima, however, t e
the Akobo River and the 83 km between the river and the junction sou.
Airfield consist of a dry-weather road in poor condition. If the new major
in Project (E), above, is built to Gog from a point on the northern 
is constructed to an RR 50 standard, then the first 50 km of this road tro 
should also be built to the higher standard and be upgraded to am J
cost of the road improvements in this case would be about w
an allowance for a bridge over the .Akobo River If, on the ot er • itn?fOve^
link is built initially to the lower RR 30 standard, this road sh 
accordance with that standard throughout its length, though 
considered as a major link road Road improvements earned ou 
lower, RR 30 standard, are estimated to cost about . maintenance costs are expected to average about 2,730,000
2,480,000 in the second case.
'•
slizan Tefen
w0UU ■
ccor£jan« **k RirT ,v,n
______ _________ -
— — 
pl jjl
TAMS-ITLG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Ma51
26s0cl0'—------ ———^_
„n-ECO °
N MlSL_____________________ ANXEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRasTRITtirfa
PRO F‘OR>1A FOR tMTROVEMENTS to key regional roads
;g^
, Sector: Roads
[fltaveniiorr Rehabilitation and Upgrading of Key Regional Roads
J*
Rationale To increase the access of people living within heavily populated wcredas to 
1 goods, services and markets
Beneficiaries: Local providers of transport and, if a competitive market is maintained 
' all residents of the affected weredas
- Acceptability' Since the work involves the restoration and improvement of existing;
roads, no problem of acceptability is foreseen.
i Application: The only limit on the appropriateness of this intervention is the economic
feasibility of the individual projects.
Description
Locations: The location of each project is given in (F) through (H). above
8 Extent. The length of each road is shown in (F) through (H), above
Employment By opening the affected weredas to new economic activities, the proposed road improvements will have a positive efleet upon employment opportunities.
Financing The 1997-2007 Road Sector Development Plan includes a 10-year ,nvesLlT»ent program for regional roads, though individual roads are not specified in Published materials. Under the recently promulgated law that defines the powers and responsibilities of regional governments^ it is foreseen that the regions will, to an greasing extent, have their own road programs and budgets for community needs The
few years, therefore, will be a transitional period but the E.R A. will continue to } a role in funding and managing the construction of regional roads, particularly 
tel capability i, deficient
ii
fpr? dentation; While no specific funds have been allocated tor Projects (F),(G) and Pros? Cr the circumstances described in 10. above, a road with strong economic
star,d a good chance of being built.
TAMS-DLG Baro-Akobo River R^n Integrated Dedopment MuterPi*nSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRASTR
V)
12
Institutional Support The E R A is currently responsible for th----------------------------------------------------- - ----- construction of all roads, outside of those built solely with communit desi?n
noted above, it is expected that the regions will assume increasing re' rCS0Urces Aj
preparing and undertaking regional road programs, as they develoD^h"516''^ for capability in coming years The E R A. will, however, retain the auth • standards, plan the overall system and approve regional designs
° n,y t0
13
Infrastructure In addition to planning and design capabilities, regional must also expand their capacities to undertake routine and periodic road
14. Legal At present there is a conflict between the statutory responsibilities of th regarding roads, and the newly expanded powers of the regional governments k .
expected to be resolved in the near future.
”
u
15 Risks The risks are the same as for any other set of highway projects and considered to be within an acceptable range.
Impact
16 Sustainability The need for greater maintenance capability within the reg-wa. governments has been noted, above
17 Environment: Insofar as the proposed road projects involve the restoration of existing road facilities, with only minor alignment improvements, the environmental impacts are expected to be minimal
18 Gender Both men and women are expected to benefit from the greater access to markets and enhanced economic opportunities provided by the proposed mid improvements
19 Health Improved roads within the weredas will provide people with better access to clinics and other health facilities, also allow health workers to reach more people
20 Social Services: The effect of improved roads will be much the same as for health
21. Multipliers By opening up rural areas to outside markets and senices, rod
improvements are expected to have significant multiplier effects, beyond '.hose - have been identified in estimating future traffic volumes
*
22 Conflicts Insofar as the proposed regional road projects involve the reconstniv-f existing facilities, it is expected that conflicts can be minimised——'
5. /. 4 Upgrading and expansion of road networks within the Weredas
In addition to the rehabilitation of the major link roads and key regional r0^ ^|j of Area, if the rural population is to gain real access to the outside world, the . |£ve cw£ 
?
S
roads and tracks that reach the small settlements and individual farms where pe ^
fVt o
j ped.
also be improved over time. Furthermore, some new local roads may need t0 ‘
Because of the large area embraced by this study, however, and the large n
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development M*s*er
o f nM#annex 3CEC0.X0AnC intrastructtres
I 1^
a possible target is established of 0 6 km of minor regional and local roads IK*! ofSuivaied area m 2015. wtah would be reached by fa dare rhrouuh 'pn,™
I ^rftatita upgrading and new conmmon Thrs urge, doea „ taWe £
^•V,dl7wer by individual owners or community groups, workmg co-operatively,
taitna*
amended standard for minor regional and local roads, on the other hand, is such that
I far® a«KS roads'
' k'ly “ k
»» tad labour or
roads w>H require some heaVy
tor their construction and maintenance
** these roads would mainly be the responsibility of the regional governments,
•*1 later in the planning period some of the larger local communities may contract for the Ruction of all-weather roads and acquire the heavy equipment necessary for their ^iintenance
3 recommended that these roads be built to a minimum standard equivalent to the Etliiopian Road Authority's Rural Road Standard RR 10. The typical roadbed for each road * iu.d be raised above the surrounding terrain enough to allow proper drainage, the roadway 
t
mould have a minimum width of 4 5 m. plus 0 5m shoulders, and would have a crushed rock crpivel sub-base at least 15 cm in thickness. Cross drainage and ditches would be provided, is appropriate.
Five heavily populated weredas in the north-central part of the project Area, where almost 95% of the people may still be living in rural areas in 2015, have been selected to test the feasibility of programs to improve minor regional and local road networks. These weredas are ’•Dale Wabera, 10-Dalc Sedi. 11-Lalo Kile, 13-Haua Gelan and 24-Danmu It is estimated tint, by 2015, their population will have reached nearly 433,000 and from 80,000 to 90,00*9 inwll be under cultivation.
b order to achieve the target set forth above, approximately 500 km of minor regional roads local roads would need to be built in these weredas, over a period of 15 to 18 years Since
of the roads may already be included in the regional road program of the Road Sector '^pment Plan, they may be started as early as next year.
i 3 °^’s construction program would be roughly 125,000,000 Bin or some 6,950,000 fc-n??000 Blrr dually - During the first ten years, this amount would need to be taken Ju? ntaJ Of 1I7.250,000 each vear that is proposed in the Road Sector Development
Re
’ llntenance 1?
« ion 4 Annual maintenance costs at the close of this program would be Birr for routine maintenance, plus the same amount or pen
; ota! 'ip mmor regional and local roads in the selectee weredasre? f
r
scn ’? t ,e
CS. °Yf in this category that may need to be
^tobe^ b> Year 2015 As noted earlier, a high proportion of this Jengtf. instructed or built as new roads
Ta MS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Dc*e«opn’cnt Ma*
29SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRast^-^
PRO FORMA FOR UPGRADING AND EXPANDING REGION ai
ROAD NETWORKS
AND ^AL
Basic Data
1 Sector: Roads
2. Intervention Upgrading and Expanding Minor Regional Road and r ,
Networks in 5 selected Weredas.
Loca' Road
3 Rational To extend the benefits of greater access to goods, services and 
more remote rural populations
mai'tetsio
I Beneficiaries Local providers of transport services and, if a competitive marie •
maintained, all rural residents of the affected weredas.
‘ 15
5. Acceptability Many of the proposed improvements will consist of the restoration f existing roads and should generally be welcomed by local residents Where new roads are to be built, regional authorities will need to work closely with local groups to engirt the acceptability of these roads
6 Application: Except in specific instances in areas that may be environmentally sensitive, the chief determinant of the appropriateness of proposed road improvements would-be the economic viability of the local network
Location: Five representative weredas - Dale Webera, Dale Sedi, Lalo Kile. Hawi Gelan and Darimu
8 Extent: Approximately 500 km of roads in an area, within the basin, of 3,763 sq tan
9. Employment By opening areas within the representative weredas to new econcmu possibilities, road improvements will have a positive impact upon employment eves
10 Financing, through 15, Risks: See Headings 10 through 15 in the Pro ^orn^^cg!s preceding group of projects, Improvements to Key Regional Roads, tor regarding the financing, implementation, institutional support, infrastructur , authority and risks of regional road programs
Impact
I
16 Sustainability: the need for greater maintenance capability■ governments has been noted above. In future years, this capability wi extended to local communities, as well,
' proba^ A’ **
~~
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development
30
Master Pla"i0 e
. conom^ __
ANNEX 3C_ECOXOMIC INFRASTRUCTURES
^-^TF^ny °fthe roa“ Movement projects. «h,ch
* X of exis,,"s ?
I0 *X may S* i"volvE<i- e"v'ro™cmal «®cta Mad to b< snratd on aa« bv ™
• cm™Tta’ "**“ ™>'
-* Wta
•**£*« ,hc de” “
s
pr0 ““ aWroPnat' mitigation 
mMsurK dcve cped
| ~;
r Aer through 21 Multipliers: See Headings IB through 21 in the Pro taa for ihe
ceding &r°uP of ProieCtS’ IrnProvemenls ,0 Ke? Regional Roads, for comments Pr \rdin“ the impacts of regional road programs on members of either S«. people's Sh their access to social services and the economic multipliers that may apply.
Conflicts The restoration of existing roads is unlikely to produce many conflicts In the case of new roads, potential conflicts will need to be addressed and resolved during the iiprocess.___________________________________________________________________________
; , proposed Airport Improvements
liis noted that there are six airports in the Project .Area that have scheduled service at the resent time but only one, Gambcla, has a hard surface runway and can accommodate aircraft jraer than a Twin Otter.
It would be desirable if, by the Year 2015 or earlier, three additional airpons, one in the north, one in the south and one at Dembidolo, were to
* have paved runways, 1600 - 1750 m long,
have ILS (Instrument Landing System) capability;
be provided with terminal facilities, and
be able to accommodate aircraft with more seat capacity, such as the ATR-42 or, perhaps, the ATR-72
c
^.‘ Probably, the northernmost airport would be at Asosa, where the existing airport is
p.* to the centre of the urban area and must be replaced by a new facility, outside the city 
^Dr T
a
ln the south would probably be at Tepi. There may also be a demand for
ir. raelmCritS at Turn- since there have been rapid increases in traffic at both these facilities v itualk ’L'ars' ’n sptte of the fact that the existing runwavs are grass and the airports have
"o associated infrastructure
•'4 a udie, Jkbons for the Instrument Landing System include: the localizer, which senes
^•«Ser an 
a J 0 the lcft and right of lhe runway; the glide slope indicator, which signa s
r oplane is above or below the approach plane for the correct angle o escen 
!f4t lrid’cat
c h° f rUnWay 1,ghts Thcse installations are supplemented by a set of ILS markers
■> ow ar an approaching aircraft is from the start of the runway
f °5sibl e
incT ^°^ ^
en
therefore, the following airport improvement projects are proposed 
usion in an air sector program:
Wnit [L^
navigation aids (navaids) at Gantbela Airpo- ■
““S °p^us; provide a twnna! apron for aircraft p*W cansmict
^IS-LILG Baro-Akobo River Basin Intefiraled Development Master Plan
a--------- summing purpose ]• addition, the new airport should have an apron for parked aircraft, a tenrHni bui’J
with about 1,500 sq m. and parking space for vehicles, and the navaids Mcessmfr ILS operations The estimated cost of a new airport near Asosa is about 65,000,0%
and annual maintsnanrp will hp ahmit 7 000 OOO
and annual maintenance will be about 2,000.000 Bin.
------- Jj-
(C) At the existing airport in Tepi, extend the runway and provide a paved facility. 16&h 
by 50 m For estimating purposes, a 30 cm thick flexible pavement is assumed Nmd$ 
necessary for ILS operations and terminal facilities similar to those indicated tor
are to be provided The estimated cost of improvements at Tepi Airport is ixc
60,000,000 Birr. Annual maintenance costs will be about 2,000,000 Bin
(D) At Dembidolo Airport, provide a paved runway, 1600 m long and 50 m wide Ora again, a 30 cm thick flexible pavement is assumed for cost estimating purposes Asr Asosa, navaids necessary for ILS operations and terminal facilities are to be provided The estimated cost of these improvements is also about 60,000.000 Bn k maintenance will require about 2,000,000 Birr, annually
32_ ECONOMICS
--------
av^ex 3< economic inhustrecttres
PRO FORMA FOR AIRPORT IMPROVEMENTS AT GAMBELA
P TEP' AND DEMBmOLO, AMD A NEW AIRPORT AT ASOSA
Sector: Air Transport
intervention: Upgrading of three airports in the Bare . Akobo Basin plLS the : ^ nsimction of a new airport at Asosa
juuonaie: To increase accessibility to Addis Ababa, other localities in Ethiopia and international destinations for residents ot the Project Area and reduce travel costs.
Bef ieficianes Primary beneficiaries will be airline operators but if a climate of adequate competition is maintained, the population of the area will benefit from the use of larger, faster aircraft, more frequent sen ice and lower air fares
5 Acceptability: The primary issue of acceptability may be noise However, the work al three locations will involve the improvement of existing airports and, at Gambela, jet aircraft have already been used, while elsewhere turboprop aircraft would continue to be used At Asosa, acceptability may be increased, since the airport will be moved away from dense residential and commercial areas
6 Application The only limit on the appropriateness of this intervention is the economic feasibility of the individual projects.
Descriptions
i+
r
I Locations: These include Gambela, Asosa, Tepi and Dembidoio
S
5
10
12, iJ
Extent The work comprises upgrading the runways ar three airports, plus restoration or provision of navaids and development of permanent terminal facilities, including apron areas vehicle parking, at four airports
Employment- Each upgraded airport may offer from 3 to 10 new jobs directly and proved access, plus potentials for air freight are expected to have a positive impact ^ployment.
Pacing- Airport improvements are funded by the C A A from rentals received from °Pian Airlines, other airlines (in the future) and various concessionaires
Design, construction and maintenance of the upgraded and new s '’•'ill be undertaken by the C. A A, either directly or by contract
rtl anda^na' ® PPott This will be provided by the C.AA, in accordance with its le al
u
=
Access roads and power lines in the vicinity ofcac^1 iheWater SUPplies (Probably deep wells) will rt«d to be upgraded or installed 
□ as „
"^::::^^ ^j£PQn improvement program__________________ ____
:
- _ - : •—
AMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Dcvdopxnent Mader PlanSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC
14 Legal Aspects The C A A is legally empowered to initiate and undertake projects for which it has the funds
15 Risks The risks are the same as those of any other public works project
considered to be within an acceptable range
are
Impact
16 Sustainability Continued use, operation and maintenance of all six airports
Project .Area will require that the C A. A or a successor organisation rernav'
existence.
®
17. Environment Five of the six airports in the Project Area are expected to continue h. served by piston engine and turboprop aircraft only, which do not have a major nd impact The existing runway at Gambela, however, is capable of accommodating0 ^ aircraft and, as traffic grows, it is expected that more of these planes will serv e the lea' Before jets are introduced on regular service, noise studies should be conducted v deter-mme their impact on nearby settlements and to define what ameliorative measures may be needed
18 Gender: The proposed airport upgrading program is expected to be gender neutral.
19. Health. Improved access to the area from major centres may be expected to improve the
level of health care available to residents of the Baro - Akobo Basin
20 Social Services: The effect of upgraded airports upon social services in the area will be
much the same as for health care
21 Multipliers: By improving access to the area from Ethiopia's major centres, the airport
upgrading program is expected to significantly enhance current economic multipliers
22. Conflicts Since, with one exception, the airport projects described herein involve ’Jx 
upgrading (but not a major expansion) of existing airfields, it is expected that configs
can be minimised The one exception is a new airport at Asosa. but this pro;e«~
intended to remove a source of conflict by relocating the facility to a site outstdt
city
5.3 Proposed Improvements in the Electric Power Sector
5.3.7 Electrification
It is proposed that the needs of the basin’s population for electricity should be -jj jeli'i** basic transmission line network as shown in Figure 10 of Annex 1J This nervsor pe£rti^c power to all the main towns and will eventually be connected to the ICS at
Gambela and Metu when the ICS is extended
TAMS I LG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Pl*
34BIOECONOMICS
5 ’ Hy^/’^ <rr^wernn7’”
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURES
oected that the primary source of electric energy in the Baro-Akobo Basin in the future l [ l> f watcr power and that much of the electricity generated in the basin will be exported to 
ww
DC of Ethiopia Therefore, the pattern of generation and transmission will be determined 
’^the location and size of future dams and their associated hydroelectric plants, and the
on of inter-regional connectors, Since the optimum size of an individual hydroelectric
^'Avill undoubtedly produce more power than can be used in its immediate area, it is
•ne-ied that these plants will be linked together in networks to promote a more efficient
eX ^ m of utilisation. This has begun to happen in the case of the Sor River plant As these
^twerks develop, it is likely that small, independent generating facilities will be phased out
While a number of potential dam sites have been identified in the cunent study, and determination has been made regarding the best sites and the scale and purpose of each dam. Thus it is possible to know how ihe future electric power needs of communities within the Project .Area will be met and what the future pattern of generation and transmission facilities will look like. One should refer to Annex II for a detailed presentation of the electric power sector projections
Two categories of hydropower schemes have been identified: inediumriarge schemes that
would be connected to the ICS and w'hich would supply power nationally, and small schemes
that would be restricted to supplying power to the Region through the transmission network 
The Master Plan recommends the implementation of a programme of medium/large schemes
as these produce power at a lower unit cost
5-3.3 Renewable energy
The study into renewable energy identifies potentially attractive sources of renewable energy, such as mini-hydro, wind power and solar energy which could make a tactica! contribution to the electricity supply of small and isolated communities Such energy sources should be seen as complementary, ralher than rivalling larger generation schemes
TAMS-LlLGHiiro-Akuho River Basin Integrated Development Master PlanSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INERASTR(
rn r
.
6. analysis of road sector projects
The evaluation of road improvements within the Project Area and the detenninatj . > c arp based solely upon the following economic analysis As noted in a R
S the Ethiopian Government is currently studying the establishment of ^
!r
Xh will receive moneys from fuel raxes, license fees and inspect™ fees w establish this fund as early as July of this year At the present ante, however, , ”‘
h
specific mechanism for recovering the costs of road implements from highway 4
determining the extent of any subsidies, and no details are available, as yet, regardj ** 
management of the proposed road fund Therefore, a separate financial analysis has nof^
made
6.1 Basis for Estimating Project Benefits
While, as noted earlier in this annex, future traffic has been estimated on the basis that raj improvements will have been carried out, the estimated increases in produc-jon 
consumption will come from many sources and additional investments, besides :uj
improvements Therefore, in the analyses that follow, the primary source of bed-
considered are the savings in transport costs that may result from the road improvemers
Increases in agricultural output and other economic activities are conservatively assumed t:
result mainly from other changes, such as extension services leading to beret fambi
practices, including the use of fertilisers and other inputs, investment in trade and kd 
industries and new incentives stemming from more liberal economic policies, eventhcuakit
is recognised that roads will play a vital role
Data on the costs of owning and operating trucks and other vehicles used to provide uanspcr services in Ethiopia are very limited but interviews with the managers of several ms- private trucking companies provided members of the TAMS/ULG team with infonrxicc a the amounts charged per tonne-km in various parts of the country and on roads withdiffrrsi surfaces and conditions.
With certain exceptions, relating mainly to the costs of amortising vehicles owned prevM** by the public sector, these companies are now operating under reasonably coitpe'-^- conditions, so their charges can be considered a valid surrogate for the costs ot -.penr-, vehicles under various road conditions
Combining the responses received in these interviews indicates that, with a W-D
on paved roads with average grades, charges per tonne-km may be in the range ot C
Bin. on gravel roads in good condition the charge may be 0.5 to 0 8 Birr, and on on 
(dry weather) roads, when they are passable, the charge may be anywhere from >
irr, or more. The differences in these charges cover not only the differences m
operating costs of a vehicle but also the fact that on poor roads trucks may carry e
full load, thus making the cost to the shipper even higher
As noted in a previous section, passengers may be carried by a wide variety o 
including trucks buses, minibuses, four-wheel drive vehicles and private
data were available tor the costs of operating these various
TAMSdJLGB^Akobo River Basin Integrated Devdopm^M**^11’
36s0ClO-ECOXOMlCS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURES
..■oU$ experience some average figures have been selected, which can be desegregated !’re' ^re detailed information becomes available. While operating costs for these vehicles *H vary widely. an average cost on paved roads may be about 1 20 Birr/lcm, on gravel roads T’s average may rise to 1 40 Birr.km, and on unsurfaced roads, where larger vehicles could 
^• venture, the average may be in the range of 2.6 Birrkm.
While the paving of the three trunk roads that penetrate the Project Area is proposed in the
nd Sector Development Plan the analyses made in this study indicate that the further
ving of roads within the area (i.e, the major link roads) would probably not be justified in 
the absence of specific, large-scale developments The savings that arc considered, therefore,
are those that will result from upgrading these roads from dry weather roads to all-weather
roads built in accordance with recognised standards.
For major links and key regional roads that are currently in poor condition, and which may be improved to meet Rural Road Standards RR 30 and RR 50. annual savings to shippers on freishl transport costs are estimated on the basis of a savings per tortne-km of 0 75 Birr and annual savings to operators of passenger vehicles are estimated on the basis of a savings per km of 1.2 Birr Where road segments are currently considered to be in good condition but where some regrading and widening of the roadway, extension of the shoulders, and drainage improvements are believed to be needed, savings equal to one third of the above amounts are used to estimate benefits
In the case of minor regional and local roads, which will be built or improved according to Rural Road Standard RR 10, annual savings are based on unit savings of 0.60 Birr, tonne km for freight movements and 1.0 Birr km. average, for passenger vehicles In addition, if minor regional and local roads are impassable during the harvest, it is considered likely that a high proportion of farmers' crops may be lost to spoilage while they are waiting for transport, or may not be harvested at all. A loss of 25% of their crop is assumed, if these roads cannot be used by vehicles. A farm gate value of 500 Birr per tonne is used for the produce that may be lost.
6-2 Review of Benefits and Costs
Utilising Lhe costs for individual project set forth m an earlier section and estimated benefits
based on the figures chat are explained above, comparisons of these costs and benefits are
made in the following paragraphs, using standard economic measures.
hitially, a review of first year benefits has beer, made for each project, which makes it clear 1 at the economic value of most of the proposed road improvements is heavily dependent J pon the rate at which farmers adopt more modem agricultural practices and gain access to 
• PUts, such as fertiliser, and for other economic changes to take place
n
If 4
^^■1 takes fifteen years or more, after road improvements provide the needed access, of 67 % the farmers to adopt such practices and gain access to essential inputs, then few road 
m Provcments will be economically feasible.
If
I 1 on the other hand, this level of adoption is reached within say five years after the road Pavements are carried out, most of them will med minimum criteria for feasibility In the
TAMS-ULG BiirO’Akobo River Basin In I equaled Drtelapmciit Master PlanSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRASTRilrTl
project analyses discussed below, therefore, it is assumed that there will be an adequat of response within five years or so 
In the preceding section on Development Options, eight specific major links and kev roads, plus a network of minor regional and local roads in five representative wered^"41 been proposed for analysis. These roads were selected after taking into considerati’ *** roads that are already included in the Road Sector Development Plan, estimated saffi'T in Years 2000. 2015 and beyond, existing and future concentrations of poDuh development schemes that are known so far and the location of environmentally 
areas
With one exception, the results of the analyses appear to be rather disappointing, with n rates of return that range from 5 2% to 11 6% 9 and 15 1 % in the case of the exception
**el
It must, however, be recognised that these analyses have been carried out on the b
i
as 5 of
conservative assumptions and considering only freight movements and traffic volumes -ha
are based mainly on the items described in an earlier section These include the adoption by 
farmers of modem agricultural practices, some development of tree crops (in areas away 
undisturbed watershed forests), some marketing of household products, consumption by rural
and urban residents and imports of equipment for mineral exploration
No major mining, industrial or agro-industrial schemes have as yet been considered Nevertheless, the results do provide a preliminary basis for establishing relative priorities arx a program of road improvements.
Major link roads and regional roads are considered separately, inasmuch as the first category would be planned and funded by the Ethiopian Road Authority and the second by ttt Regional Authorities Actual construction of both categories of roads, however, may cor.tinu to be managed by the Ethiopian Road Authority for at least the next few years Since
Road Sector Development Plan runs until Year 2007 and contains three major link road projects in the Project Area, other projects be included among those shown by region only, a the Plan and, therefore, may be undertaken as early as Year 2001
The results of the analyses and recommendations for individual road projects are deser t- the following paragraphs
(1) Project E- Construct a new road from a point on Dima Road, about 50 Mizan Teferi, through Gurafarda, to Gog This road is recommended a$aS** for the proposed major link from Godere to Abobo, which is included in the Sector Development Plan, since that road appears to expose high watersh 0 potential exploitation and destruction. This recommended alternative
south of the undisturbed forests in the preserves and would provide all-weat to the wereda town of Gurafarda and a second, shorter route from towns in Baro-Akobo Plain to Jimma and the rest of the country It would also pro>] ^^0! areas of disturbed and open forest that have been recommended for the . &
eucalyptus poles The potential offered by these attributes have
rcsuhe C
. ^jird t-'
robust set of economic indicators, if the road is built to a Rural Road
RR30 and 50 km of the Dima Road is rebuilt to the same standard Tbese^,i include an internal rate of return (IRR) of 15.1 %; a benefit/cost (B/C)
a 12% discount rate and a net present value (NPV) of 35 264.200
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master P|sD
38,.ECONO>nCS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRA STRUCT I 7RES
[f mor* detai lea studies support these preliminary results, it is recoin mended that this project be undertaken in Years 2003 and 2004
Project B- Reconstruct the east-west major link from Gtdami to Chanka Jet and undertake minor repain and regrading from Chanka Jet to Inango and thence to
file 5. This road tvdl reduce the isolation of several wereda towns in the nonh-western part of the Project Area and provide access to areas of current and potent id production c f yum arabic artd other products of cuilivated forest lands. If the road is rebuilt m Years 2007 and 2008. in accordance with the requirements of Rural Road Standard RR 50. ihe TRR would be 11.6%, the B/C ratio 1,152. at a 10% discount rate; and the NPV ] 1,802.400, at the same rate.
project C Reconstruct the north south major link road that joins Bombast with Gidami, through Begi This project is considered important for providing the wcreda town of Begi and its surrounding villages with all-weather access to Route 5 and to towns in the south, as well as serving areas of cum arabic production However, while this road forms part of the network of major links, the estimated volume of traffic and the weak economic indicators suggest that it should only be improved to met the requirements of Rural Road Standard RR 30 If this construction is earned out in Years 2009 and 20 JO, the ERR would be 8 5%, the B/C ratio, al a discount rate of 10%, would be 0.884 and the NPV at 10% would be S.3O6, 300 Birr The development of mining activities in the area could improve these indicators Otherwise, the applicable standard might be lowered further to Rural Road Standard RR 10,
Project D- Reconstruct the direct road from Gambela to Dembidolo and undertake minor repairs on the major link from Dembidolo to Chanka Jet. Even though trucks have to drive on a indirect route that adds 29 km to the distance between Gambela and Dembidolo, this route has a relatively high volume of traffic at present because of the presence of check points on competing routes This is considered a temporary phenomenon, how ever, and much of the added traffic may return to the other routes if the check points can be removed and the paved length of the Bedele-Gambela trunk road is extended to Gambela, as planned. In the analysis, it is assumed that after this is done, a third of the additional traffic may still continue to use the road through Chanka and Dembidolo. On the basis of this assumption, as well as the traffic estimates based on the methodology and assumptions outlined earlier, and if the direct road is restored in Years 2009 and 2010. the IRR for the project is 10.8%; the B/C ratio is 1.063, at a discount rate of 10%, and the NPV is 5,152,900 Birr M the same rate. Gambela and Dembidolo are two of the three largest cities in the Baro-Akobo Basin and. if new enterprises of any size were to locale in one of these cities, these economic indicators ccJuld improve significantly. If not, then the direct road could be rebuilt in accordance with Rural Road Standard RR 30 rather than RR50
Project A- Reconstruct the north-south major link that extends from its junction with oute s. near Gimbi, to its junction with the trunk road front Metu to Bedele.
m Provernetits to this major link road are intended mainly to reduce the isolation of several wcreda towns in the nonh eastern part of the Project Area. Since it is a part of
. network of major links serving the Area, the analysis has been earned out on the a 5ts of ihe road being improved to meet the requirements of Rural Road Standard RR
Estimated volumes of traffic on the northern portions of the road, however, are rat ker low; leading to few savings in transport costs Thus, the economic indicators are
TAMS-ULG Baro-Aliobo River Blain Integrated Dcvtiopmtnt Mister PlanSOCIO-ECONOMJCS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRasTRv Tt
C
weak Even if the project is deferred until Years 2014 and 2015 the ERR js OnJv the B/C ratio is 0 867. at a discount rate of 10%. and the NPV is -11.184.600 the same discount rate These indicators could be strengthened ’r nJ?;,®
o
improvements could be carried out at an earlier date, if the northern 105 km of the: were reconstructed to satisfy the requirements of Rural Road Standard RR 30 rcad than Standard RR 50 
Proposed regional road projects include, firstly, improvements to three typical key re® roads that are identified by their end points and junctions and, secondly. \ dtp improvements to minor regional and local road networks that are treated on an area win* basis and for which a target has been established based on accepted standards
rs,rieT
(1) Project F- Reconstruct the regional road from the junction north of Lalo Kile t0
Dupa and thence to Supe. on the main link between Gimbi and Metu This road traverses an area with a large rural population and, while each end of the road is in f»i- to good condition, the central portion is understood to be in poor condition, thus isolating a large number of people, particularly during the rainy season Based upon estimated traffic levels, with more modem agricultural practices and increased mobility, improvements to this road would have an ERR of about 10% ,a B/C ratio of 1 001 and a NPV of 29,600 Birr, if it were constructed in Year 2003 Deferral of the stan of construction would improve these economic indicators or, alternatively, the road may be built initially to Rural Road Standard RR10 and upgraded to RR 30 in later years.
(2)
(3)
Project G- Reconstruct the regional road that extends from the junction of the Chanka-Gimbi Road, west of Yubdo. to another junction east of Yubdo, where it turns south to Debeso and then east to a junction west of Yirga Degen on the major link between Gimbi and Metu. This 76 km road passes through an area that is similr to the area described in the preceding paragraph but it has a lower population potentii agricultural output is less and projected growth rates are low Even if construction is deferred until year 2014, the economic indicators for improvement of this road re weak, the ERR is about 6.2%, the B/C ratio at a discount rate of 10% is 0 703 and the NPV is -8,530,600. There are some mineral potentials in the area, however, and if these are realised the economic prospects for the road improvements would be mvcr stronger Otherwise, the appropriate standard for this road would be Rural Rm- Standard RR 10, rather than RR 30.
Project H- Reconstruct the road from a junction, located west of Mizan Dima and thence past the airport at Turn to a junction west of Maji, on
Geba This road could provide an alternative route from Mizan Teferi to Map- 85 as providing better access for what are believed to be many refugees in the
The first 50 km would be upgraded as a part of Project E, above. Unfortunate!)^ are not sufficient data at this time on the population in the area and the poieiM * economic development to permit an evaluation of improvements to this to* made, though it appears to serve a number of people.
As noted in a previous section, there are approximately 1,500 km of important ^^^tbr
serving wereda towns that are not on the network of primary and secondary r°aCS' 
Project Area
TAMS-LLG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Pla*1
40s0 ClO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURES
. results of the analyses described above, for two of three representative roads, indicate
hat rebuilding to meet the requirements of Rural Road Standard RR 30 may be economically 
1 stifled 0P'^ a portion of these roads, a larger share may be improved only to the level of
10, at least initially
yjsc the program of road improvements should be spread out over a number of years and not pe concentrated in the early years of the planning period
for developing a preliminary program, therefore, it is assumed that one-third of the key regional roads (500km) will be reconstructed from the beginning in accordance with the requirements of Rural Road Standard RR 30, one third (500 km) will be reconstructed, initially, to meet requirements of RR 10 and will later be upgraded to Rr 30. another one sixth (250 km) will be improved only to the level of RR 10 and a final one sixth (250km) will be deferred until the second half of the planning period, i e. after 2015,
Regarding minor regional and local roads, the results of the economic analysis show a set of economic indicators that appear at first to be marginal but it must be recognised that these roads will be reconstructed over a period of 15 years or more and the analysis covered a set of mads that would be rebuilt at the beginning of the period
Also, a number of roads are covered by this analysis and some of these roads may be very attractive economically Others may become feasible at a later date, while yet other roads may be more suitable for local improvement by community groups, possibly using hand labour and animal power.
The economic indicators for the first increment of the proposed. 15 to 18 year program of improvements to minor regional and local roads are as follows the IRR is just shy of 10%, while the B/C ratio is 0.987 at a discount rate of 10% and the NPV is 107,000 Birr at the same rate
For the purposes of preparing a program of road improvements for the entire project Area, it is assumed that, of the estimated 3, 550 km of minor regional and local roads that would need 
be restored or built, in order to meet the target of 0 6 km of such roads Tor each sq km of cultivated area in 2015, only two thirds (2360 km) would be completed within the 1997-2015 time frame The remainder may have modest improvements undertaken by community Shoups and then be completed to an accepted standard in the second half of the planning period
TAMS-OLGBaro-Akobo Rher Basin Integrated Development Master PlanSOCIO-ECONOMICS
annex 3C economic fnfrastri cTLre
7. ROAD IMPROVEMENT PRIORITIES
Road improvement priorities and the resulting Sector Plan are based upon two references For improvements to trunk roads and major link roads between 1997 and the priorities established in the countrywide Road Sector Development Plan of the Ethi Road Authority are followed For these roads in subsequent years, as well as for reaio local roads, the results of the economic analyses described above are used to detc,,,/ ** priorities. 
3
‘ lne
Years 1997-2000(all of these roads are included in the R S D P.)
Class Region
Road
Length Standard
Cost (Birr)
New Construction (This work is actually ongoing ) ML 11 Wacha - Maji
ML 12
Gambela - Jikawo
Upgrading (Some work mav be ongoing.)
T 4 & 12 Metu - Gambela
T 4 & 6 Gimbi - Asosa *
T 11 Jima - Mizan Teferi *
ML 12 Gambela - Abobo
Reconstruction, Upgrading and some New Construction RR All Minor Regional & Local Roads
Total for Period
135 km 120 km
176 km 234 " 198 "
82 "
RR 50
RR 30
Paved
Paved 
Paved
RR 30
395 km RR 10
114,477,000
70,300,000
190,819.000
253,703,000
196,454,000
30,463.000
98,750,000
504,809.000
* These roads are mostly outside Project .Area and not included in the total for the penod
Note
ML = main link T = trunk 
RR = rural road
TAMS-l'LG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Pri"
42f< ,r|O
-ECONOMTS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURES
^$2001 ' 2005
Cla5S.R-Sg,0J:!—— Construction
Road
ML 11 Dima Road Jet - Gog Reconstriictionand LPS™ding
LengthStandard . Cost(Birr)
165 km RR 30 Imi 90,750.000
7r 4
RR All
Jet -Lalo Kile-Dupa-Supe Other Key Regional Roads
83 km
417 ’
RR lOlnit.
RR 10*30
17,850.000
96,965.000
Rcconstrugtipn. Upgrading, and soma New Construction
RR All Minor Regional & Local Roads 655 km
Sub-Toral
Add 10% allowance for bridge widening & maintenance facilities
RR 10 163,750,000
369315,000
36.935,000
Total for Period
■106,250,000
Years 2006- 2010 CllSS Region 
Road
Length Standard
£osX(Binj
Reconstruction and Upcradinu
ML 4 Gidami-lnango-Rte 5
ML 4&12 Gambela-DembidoloChanka Jcr,
All Key Regional Roads
Reconstruction, Unoradine and some Mew Construction
181 km 152 " 500 “
RR 50 RR 30 Init RR 10-30
All Minor Regional & Local Roads 655 " RR10 Sub-Total
10% allowance for bridge widening & maintenance facilities Total for Period
81.985,000
59,075,000
115,640,000
163.750,000
420,450,000
42,050,000
462,500,000
TAMS-ULG Baru-Akobi? River Busin Intcsratrd Development Mailer Plan
43SOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC 2^astrUctires
Years 2011 - 2015
Length---------
Standard -CpjQirQ
Reconstructionand, Upgrading
ML 6&4 Bambasi - Gidami
ML 4 Jet So of Gimbi-Metu Jet RR 4 Yubdo Jct-Yirga Degen Jet RR All Other Key Regional Roads
114 km
152 "
76 ”
424 "
RR30 
RR 30-50
RR 10 Init. 
RR 10-30
Reconstruction, Upgrading and some New Construction RR AJ1 Minor Regional & Local Roads 655 "
RR 10
48,450,000
56,250.000
17,525.000
98,537.000
631,750,000
Sub-Total
384,512,000
Add 10% allowance for bridge widening & maintenance facilitie
s
38.488.000
Total for Period
423,000,000
Years 2016 through 2035
As a result of continued population growth and expanding economic activity in the Baro- Akobo Basin in the years following Year 2015, it should become possible to justify’ the upgrading of those roads built initially to lower standards in the earlier years, as well as further improvements to trunk roads and major link roads and the building of addition! regional and local roads
Therefore, expenditures on the road networks in the Project Area between 2015 and 2035 may be expected to continue at about the same levels as between now and Year 2015 This would be about 425,000,000 Birr in each five-year interval, or 85,000,000 Birr annually. _
TAMS-L’LG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master PlaQ
44^ECONOMICSANNEX 3C economic infrastructures
POST AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS
g 1 Current Situation
The Baro-Akobo River Basin region is a large area in Ethiopia, and has under-developed road systems and other means ol communication. Post and telecommunications are a crucial elements in the development process Current conditions of posts and telecommunications sets ices are discussed in the following paragraphs
81.1 Postal Services
b 1994. the domestic postal communication had a volume of about 16 6 million letters. Details of postal service coverage are not provided in the results of the surveys conducted so far It is generally assumed that most urban centres have the service although not as efficient and effective as desired Improving the postal services is dependent upon improvements in the transport services as postal deliveries are mostly carried out through road transport. It is expected that these services are relatively less difficult and less expensive to extend and improve.
8.1.2 Telecommunications
The provision of telephone services in the Baro-Akobo River Basin regions are listed in the results of the 1994 census and recorded in the table below
Table 7 Telephone connections in the Project Area
Selected urban Centre in the Region
Percent of nouses with Telephone
connections
^Asosa
44
J^embidolo
4 9
.Mugi
Jdetu
Gore
Gambel&
28
162
8.2
31 1
The percentage of houses with telephone lines in Addis Ababa and other urban centres in the country, has been estimated from statistical details produced by the CSA and indicates a large G, fference in telephone connections between the capital and the rest of the country i e
Addis Ababa
Other Urban Centres
23.6%
4 0%
Comparison of telephone service availability in the project region with the national average exc k>ding Addis Ababa, shows that the urban centres in the Baro-Akobo River Basin area, P^cularly Metu and Gore are relatively better It should be noted that the presence ot a
TAMS-ULG Baro-Aknbo River Basin Jnlegraied Dcvelopmciii Matter PI an
45
iHSOCIO-ECONOMICS
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRASTRL'CTUr
brewery in the sub-region (at Bedele) has attracted higher level of communication fl r • comparison with the rest of the project area
It should be noted that the provision of telecommunication services, as recorded bv th are low. However, the concerned authorities are aware of the situation and would im rate of access to telephones when the Seventh Ethiopian Telephone Authority’s p| •Ve**le implemented in the next 5 years
8.2 Appraisal of the Future Needs
1 lt,e* in
' n ls **%
Like any other infrastructure, telephone services can only be provided with economr justification to ensure sustainability and profitability The Baro-Akobo River Basin has
viable potential to develop The short and medium term needs can be assessed based on the present trend of the availability of the service. In order to equate major urban centres to that of Metu, about 2,000 additional telephone lines would be required for the region Perhaps a more challenging and costly part is to introduce a direct-dialling system to at least those urban centres where there is sufficient economic justification Therefore, the medium tenr objective for the region should be to extend the provision of telephone services to at least 3.500 housing units in the region and to improve the operator-assisted service to a direct- dialling system in the mean time.
The cost estimated would vary', depending on a number of planning approaches and parameters. Furthermore, since the Baro-Akobo river Basin spreads over a long tract of land particularly north to south, the alternatives of accessing major urban centres also matter Excluding basic equipment costs which the ETA would consider as a significant capital project, the estimated 2,000 additional telephone lines would cost about Birr 4 million, which includes individual telephone sets and the accessing infrastructure The regionaj telecommunication system would reach a reliable and efficient standard by 2035 at which time the region’s economic importance to the whole nation could have been proven and implemented to a significant level This would mean that an up to-date telecommunication systems would be available in the region for business, education and other requirements
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Pl*n
46^0CIO-eCONO>1ICS
ANNEX 3C economic intra structures
9 FARTHER studies
9J Road sector
The road improvements discussed in this Annex are based upon reconnaissance-1 eve I survey 
rO ads and road conditions in The Project Area, which was quite general in nature A much 
more detailed inventory, km by km. of these roads - focusing upon surface and drainage
conditions - is needed to develop preliminary' road designs as the basis for accurate estimates
of costs and more comprehensive analyses of feasibility
The foregoing evaluation of road improvement projects has been undertaken on the basis of preliminary estimates of potential agricultural surpluses and early information on relatively node si development projects. More studies, based on the refinement of these estimates, as well as comprehensive information, on larger-scale development schemes, including power development industrial spin-offs and internal trade, are needed - tn order to fully assess the demand for future road improvements and determine their economic feasibility Also, once a dedicated source of funds for road improvements and a mechanism for recovering their costs are in place, a comprehensive financial analysis of the proposed improvements should be made
9*2 Air travel and airport improvements
Once the analyses of the four (or more) airport improvement projects proposed earlier in this
■Annex are completed and an order of priorities has been established, a comprehensive plan far airport improvements, as well as a plan for air traffic control within the Project .Area, can be developed and integrated into a national plan
93 Electric Power
Once the location, size and timing of hydro-electric installations in the Project Area are determined, engineering and economic studies should be undertaken for the purpose of def inin° a comprehensive plan for a system of transmission and distribution lines, substations
^ d supplementary power
n
sources to serve the cities, towns and, later, the rural areas in the
asiT1 ar^d to determine the viability of these facilities
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akotw River Basin Inlegr^led Development Master Plan
47ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC TNYRASTRIjCTURES
APPENDICES
* o-Akabo River Basin Integrated Development Muter Pint
rANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTI RES
n£
. CONO’'nCS
uvral roads standards
3
I
. cOmmended
, tegories and related standards of construction for rural roads take into should be minimal but consistent with sound engineering practice
c
* el- "
that the 5tatl d carrying vehicle in Ethiopia is a two axle truck of some 17 tons cross
.
om>noncSt °a Hard/should be sufficient for the road to accent such a vehicle
rightly trafficked roads may either be closed or restricted, but for the
w
8 rainy * “icr “ higher traffic volumes are seasonal in nature, related to
f iton »<l occl,r “,he dty W'a'her
S* °,
cultural pr
struction is recommended this principle should not be rigidly applied if 1; ^though stag^ c^creascd construction costs on very lightly trafficked roads, eg tn w|VQiVCS
mountainous areas
P,e lowest categories, which are those with the least traffic, should be constructed by labour ^tensive methods wherever possible, and at low cost The standards recommended for these categories should therefore permit the maximum use of manual labour and local materials
The lowest category of road is for dry-weather use only, and of minimum geometric standards It would be used where the average daily traffic (ADT) is less than 10 vehicles per diy me where weather closure is acceptable It is referred to as class RRJO The next attjpTy recommended is for an expected traffic volume of 10 to 30 vehicles per day This is to be of a slightly higher standard than the above and will have a semi all weather capability This type of road is classified as RR30. The last category recommended is for an expected nffic volume of 30 to 50 vehicles per day This should be all weather and capable of ciprovement to higher standards when traffic requires it It is referred to as class RR50,
( Road Class RRio
lbs :s a road constructed to minimum standards, capable of carrying up to 10 vpd during dry A ^b.er, and closed to traffic during periods of heavy rain
C '">struciio standards
n
S
3
C
Road reserve
Cleared width Nation width
1
?avement :
e
r Maximum gradient Minimum horizontal curve radius
are as follows
30m This is considered a desirable minimum to permit future upgrading
15m to 20m dependent on type of section, sight distance etc. 6m, but this may be reduced to 4m in difficult mountainous terrain where a 6tr. wide formation, in say a deep cutting with hard rock, would lead to a greatly increased cost
Imported gravel or similar surfacing is not normally provided, but may be necessary ever sections Oi steep 
gradient or where subgrade soils are particularly poor 14 per cent
10m
_________________________________________________________________________________________________ .
S 'ULG Baro-Akubo RiverBasin Integrated Bevdoiitnent Master PUn Appendix 3Ch
2.
socio-econ Omi ,
Drainage
Bridges.
ANN»3CBCONOmic
Li
fords 
*’ ins “• by M
be of West nature :
Cf os5
Not normally proviri^ ° f timbw d^l^on
’ Paved
Road Class
RR 30
esscnt'ai, wouu
- piers and abutments 8 eral!v be
This
woH- x :x'?
s g
,sher
--alma™omcapa“^0 ^
standards than class rr m
o dlrafeed
Construction standards:
Perdav
a
b
c
d
Road reserve Clear width Formation width Pavement
30m
15m to 20m
6 m and as for RR10 
e. f
g
Maximum gradient Minimum horizontal curve radius Drainage
w
h Bridges
«"*- rock is required
15m
longitudinal; as RRIO Cross drainage by means ofcme pipes, slab culverts or paved fords
Bridges may be provided at non-fordable stream or nwr crossings, although the cost of a substantial structure shod be weighted against the acceptability (or otherwise) of > possibly temporary interruption of traffic. It is often the best solution to adopt a stage construction approach in that.! bridges are required the abutments and piers should w of permanent masonry construction and with a minimus toe width of 6m Temporary decks should have a minim width of 4m. for clear spans of less thar. about 7m tbn’ should normally consist of timber beams and cross deck)?, with running-boards and/or diagonal planking
For clear spans of over 7m the superstructure should be of permanent materials suih is st- (eg Bailey or similar bridging) or reinforced concrete
Design loadings to be H20-44.
T xMS:tLG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Developmeni Master ?
Appendix 3CfO? .o»ucs
ANNEX 3C ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURES
oa
d Class RR?0
m all-weather gravel -surface road h< „ .
save for the following: xanaards are the sam
e as for road Class
^vement
■-
Minim'*'11 curve radius Drainage Bridges
Maximum ®
hhor Ctrilz7ontal
rad,e7,
The road is normally to he provided with a running surface of gravel or crushed rock with a compacted thickness of 15 cm over the full width of the formation In areas of poor natural sub-grade, a sub-base of imported selected material may be required over the full formation width
10 per cent
20m
As for RR 30 As for RR 30
ti1
Appendix 3CANNEX 3D
SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE
< LC “•m-Akobo River Balin iblegnted OevdW"™' M““ ””
rS'
ANNEX 3D
social ixfrxstrlctihe
CONTENTS
.1
cl RRE^
THEA
•/"TlON.............. ............... ....................... ......... .................................
_ * i th situation ♦••••... *...... .. ... .... ................. .
^nr Borne Disease.
...........................................................................
•* YtH^fever
....................
D
jj Malaria ................
Sanitation ..........
 '
HIALTB SERV1C.........................
_ _ rf/- E* C
B
- —
Medical and Health Facilities
Comparative Position of the Region Distances Travelled to Reach a Health Centre
4 ■
nutritional status
j IMPACT OF STORAGE SITES AND IRRIGATION ON HEALTH i HOUSING
T. General
il Current Conditions
TABLES
14
.„17
.17
. .17
iftlel tye2 
■ftlel
Ethnic groups by location and occupation Morbidity 
statistics
■de 4 Idler
-dt5
;de<) ;*'t 10
-**11
project A163
Nut
^l ;Distribution of Health Personnel
Diseases associated with water —
Immunisation rates in 1992. in rural areas i '<0
k^munisation rates in 1995 (% of population) ■ Regional mortality indicator by type of residence in Differences in Facilities between National Average an Mortality Rates (Less than 5 years of age)
t2
* jMitritionai Status among children age 6-59 moot s
Solution of project area population, 1995^203-
.......1
.. 7
........ 9
.... 9
...... .10
........ 11
...... 11
... .12
1?
. 16SOCIO-ECONOMIC
ANNEX 3D SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE
1- introduction
This document gives an assessment of human health and sanitation in the Baro-Akobo river basin. Its contents include a general discussion of health, health services, nutritional status and the impact of water developments upon health For convenience, small tables are included within the text, large tables and figures occur as an annex at the close of the document
With an area of 75,910 km2, the Project area covers the administrative regions of Gambela (Region 12), Oromiya (Region 4), Asosa (Region 6) and Region 11 of the SNNPRG The population of the area is about 2 million people who separate into different ethnic groups (Table 1) The population density varies according to administrative region the lowest is Gambela (7 km'2), the highest Oromiya (54 5 km'2), followed by Asosa (32 3 km'2) and Region 11 (24 2 km'2) With an annual growth rate of 3 per cent, the population in the area is
expected to be 5 3 million by the year 2035
In Ethiopia continuous population movement is an established practice This is not limited to pastoral populations only, but also occurs among some agricultural communities (Lindtjem and Alemu 1993). In the Project area, in addition to the indigenous population there has been a continuous in-flux of people from neighbouring Sudan (refugees) and from nonhem Ethiopia (resettled households from the famine of 1985). Introduction of new types of diseases to an area with possible epidemics from refugees is common A case in point is the first Yellow Fever epidemic in Kurmuk and Asosa (Region 6) from the Fung district of Sudan in 1959 .As health planning depends on the composition, growth and density of a population, careful
monitoring of this phenomenon is important
Table 1 
Ethnic groups by location and occupation
Region Agricult
ure
Other sedentary
Transhumant
T
Gambela
Anuak (48%)
Nuer (38%)
Majanger
lllubabor
Oromo, Amhara
Maj anger
Kefa
Me’enit, Sheko
Welega
Asosa
Oromo, Amhara, Kefa, Gemira, Shuro/Tama, (Mesengo) Oromo, .Amhara
Shekocha, Anuak, Maj anger, Shuro
Mesengo, Mao Beni-Shangul
Uncertain
Anfilo, Koine.
Masongo, Longe, Opuo Bench
Baro-Akobo River Basin integrated Development Master Plan. Interim Report (1995).
Source
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
3D - 1■AXN EX 3D
SOCIAL LXTRASTRLCTURE
^rrent HEALTH STRATH*
, i mfiMtnirture of the area is similar to that of the rK, ofthe
* hUF% for Gambela. 60% for Illubabor, 66% for Keffa aod M% Retai (MOH
■’“I Table 2 S>ves moA'Cl!y sUMt'“ fom *' P'*’ «• for *. ran taftut^L,,f
l”' vista AS rhe distribution and availability of hospitals, health centres'«! ctara "fin the regions. The morbidity figures reported for the different levels (HospnaB * and clinics) separately are not used. Instead, the figures reported hv th, respective
Snow “ “
n
con-',dered 10 M wopule Due to the tael that repo,ting of
Ljses id the different zones vanes, only the top ten common causes of uut-patiem visits are here The missing figures in the different columns mean the corresponding disease
^ pt among the ten causes of out-patient visits in that particular zone,
n
Disease
RESpiratocy tract infections All form of malaria inienstinal parasites Durrhoeal diseases Urinary tract infections Gastritis
tyeand tar infections
Sha infections
I-httoilosis
^matic arthritis
fj™ Mhisuy ofHadth, 1995
Table 2 Morbidity statistics
Asos a HI u ba b or W elega Gambda
13288
17633
17141
9264
900
8593 *
442
*
23589 11556 40058 17462 10322 16192 12833 24222
*
22784
33982
29401
41213
15738
■
15693
17538
17263
*
•
23791
25250
10462
12545
1448
2055
4636
1W45
559
6074
7639
2976
5680
3979
1589
1791
A
4276
*
3084
not reported among len outpatient visits for the year report
y^^J^P’^ory tract infections and intestinal parasites are among the top three 'tiding are patient visits in ail zones Of intestinal parasites, the most common in repented
yibS for r L ,C
amoebiasis and ajardiasis There are no reports on r-iits Or
Kry, ’9s?I0T1S 6> 11 and 12 The total reported cases of AIDS &™ Reson 4 taw«n
' 'U1d March 1956
1 83 7, and that is 10 2% of ail repermi os=s ci AIDS m
retev durinS period Details of the .AIDS situation s the P^ect
Se * of Lofonnaiioa on reported cases in the whole countrymehsrogccajasiioxige
^Motion
solution of its prevalence is describee b the =rc^,t
'fcs. i, Jjw. Section 4.4.4 Tuberculosis, vttch is « te *=<•«
™° «
n
"" leading cases in Gimbals ooh' Its 
'
K s °r It may have been lumped with respiratory tract
? f °U’P«™ vista fcr a period of one >« (1«5) b
^ Jj/53’207 “ Wellega Gtabi Zo«
'-^^060 Maji Zone. Except for rtalsrA nsre « ’■* s«®««
AAIS-L’LC Baro-AXobo River Basin Initeraud BeseRsJuui .
30-2
“SOCIO-ECONOMIC
ANNEX 3D SOCLAL INFRASTRUCTURE
diseases in the area like Trypanosomiasis, Onchocerciasis, Schistosomiasis and Yellow Fever are reported among the leading causes of outpatient visits. This ma} be due to lack of diagnostic facilities or may be few cases were seen in the outpatient departments Needless to say. these diseases are important as they are endemic in this area.
2.1 Vector Borne Diseases
The well-known vector-bome diseases prevalent in the project area are Trypanosomiasis Onchocerciasis, Yellow Fever, Schistosomiasis and Malaria Dracuncuius medinensis commonly known as guinea worm, was assumed to occur in the whole country, but this has been found to be based on faulty reporting (Kloos 1993) Extensive survey is required to determine its occurrence in the Project area Bcmcroftian filariasis that causes elephantiasis has been found in the lowlands of Illubabor and Keffa (McConnel 1976) The following paragraphs describe common vector-borne diseases in the area
2.1.1 Trypanosomiasis
The statistics for Trypanosomiasis are confusing Gambela hospital reported 1 case in 1931 and 7 cases in 1985 In the upper reaches of the Gilo River, however, 454 cases were diagnosed during the 19 years preceding 1988, but these were not confirmed by laboratory tests (Selkhozpromexport, 1988) The main channels for the extension of tsetse to the highlands are the Baro River to the north, the Gilo River to the south and the Pokwo and Arie: rivers to the west The areas along the Baro. Gilo and Akobo rivers were associated with most of the diagnosed infection/outbreaks (Hutchinson 1971) In tsetse infested areas of Gambela. Wellega, Keffa and Illubabor, the settlement of highland populations by the government resulted in the introduction of new services, but these were less accessible by the indigenous population.
There are 4 types of tsetse flies, of which Selkhozpromexport (1988) believes two, G
tachmoides and G. morsitans, are potentially important in the project area With G.
tachmoides, the carrier of the Gambian form of the disease, man is the reservoir of contagion,
with morsitans, the Rhodesian form, wood antelopes are the reservoir Water is important to
insect breeding, and irrigation could increase the incidence of the disease The female lays her
eggs into moist soil, sometimes under pebbles. The larvae dig into the soil where they spend about 3-4 weeks The flies are active during the daytime (Selkhozpromexport, 1988)
Continuous surveillance, diagnosis, and treatment of infected human cases is of paramount importance Urgent need for ecological studies, improvement in human and veterinary health
services, cost-benefit analysis to guide control programs, and greater use of trypanotoleran.
livestock and cultivation methods other than ploughing with oxen may need to
implemented Rwanda, during the 1980s, was partially successful in controlling tsetse by combining the use of insect traps with habitat management (Paskett, 1983).
2.1.2 Onchocerciasis
It is an established fact that Onchocerciasis is endemic, particularly in Illubabor, Keffa anc Wellega in southwestern Ethiopia. The rate of blindness (1.35-15%) caused ty Onchocerciasis is alarmingly increasing in the endemic areas (Budden 1981). Migration art resettlement have been suggested as major vehicles for increasing Onchocerciasis transr™^.
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Batin Integrated Development Master Plan
3D-3socio-economic
ANNEX 3D SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE
in Ethiopia (DcSole 1976). Large plantations thai attract labourers on a seasonal or permanent basis, arc a significant occupational risk factor in the epidemiology of Onchocerciasis. The resettlenient program for drought victims in south-western and north-western Ethiopia involved thousands or persons and contributed to the expansion of Onchocerciasis, Slate farms along river basins like the Baro-Akobo, with their forest-shaded, fast stream environment, attract people into close fly contact The magnitude of Onchocerciasis transmission and its sequelae may become greater than is now realised The beneficial effects of deforestation and dam construction on the vector's habitat may be negated by increased man-fly contact, Transmission may consequently increase in such suitable environments.
27.3 Yellow Fever
The first cases of yellow fever were reported in the second half of 1959 in Benshangul (now Asosa) in western Wellega This is recorded as the first epidemic outbreak in Ethiopia.
Considering the ecology of western Ethiopia, the abundance of vectors 
and wild
reservoir hosts, extensive population movements, and recent acceleration in landscape change (deforestation, settlement patterns and water resources development), careful epidemiological surveillance is required if yellow fever and other arbovirus diseases are to remain under control There have been no official reported and confirmed cases of Yellow Fever since the iast epidemic of 1966 (Mekonnen 1993).
2 J.# Schistosomiasis
Schistosomiasis is a three-factor disease involving pathogenic schistosomes, certain species of
aquatic snails and man The three related subsystems representing different stages of rhe
transmission cycle are (1) the man-host snail relationship, (2) the snail-parasite relationship and
(3) the man parasite relationship The locus of all three subsystems is water, the human use of
which often results in convergence or agent, intermediate host snail and human definitive host
Each of the three interfaces is strongly influenced by physical environmental and biotic and
human factors
increasing population movements in recent decades and deteriorating living conditions have facilitated the spread of Schistosomiasis to areas where it was previously absent. The geographic distribution of Scfastowmia mansoni infection and its intermediate snail hosts in Ethiopia Biomphiiaria pfetjfer and Biomphilaria sudanica have been well described (Ayele, 1982; Kloos et al, 1988, Lo er al, 1988, Tedla et al, 1989) Similarly Bulinus afneanus is identified as the only transmitter for Schistosomta haematobium in the Wellega focus (Lo et al. 1982),
The host snail B- pferffer, which prefers small streams and irrigation canals, is by far the most common snail host for S. mansoni. In its comprehensive study of the Bare, Alwero, Chiru, and Gilo Rivers prior to 1988, Selkhozpromexport (1988) detected no indication of Biomphaiaria (intermediate host of intestinal Schistosomiasis) or Bulinus (intermediate host of urinary Schistosomiasis) They conclude there are no characteristic foci of Schistosomiasis within the limits of the lower basin, although infections appear to have been imported to the area from ^ther locations
The highly localised distribution of the infection is largely due to altitude, through its effects 3n temperature, rainfall, topography, population density, and the distribution and nature of
TAMS-ULG Biiro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
3D-4SOCIO-ECONOMIC
ANNEX 3D SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE
surface waters. Rainfall during most of the year and corresponding fast stream flow, togethe- with relatively low population densities, are associated with low prevalence rates of 10 per cent in the western and southern regions (Kloos, 1993), which includes the project area
2.1.5 Malaria
About three-quarters of the total area of Ethiopia is estimated to be malarious, and about two- thirds of the inhabitants of the country are at risk of infection The annual incidence of malana
in 1989-90 was 21/1000 population based on statistics from the number of cases diagnosed microscopically. It excludes an estimated incidence that is three to four times that number diagnosed on clinical grounds.
Large-scale settlement of non-immune highland people in the lowlands and deterioration of the health services during the last phase of the civil war were particularly instrumental in increased morbidity and mortality from malaria. The lowlands of the project area below 1500 m altitude are highly malarious, and the blood of more than 75 per cent of children less than 1 year old shows signs of infection (Selkhozpromexport, 1988) It is reported that Anopheles gambiae is responsible for the high sporozoite rate in the Gambela area (Krafsur, 1971)
Of the four plasmodium species known to cause human malaria, the two epidemiologicallv important species are Plasmodium falciparum, 60 %, and Plasmodium vivax, 40 % of ail malaria cases Plasmodium falciparum causes the most frequent and fatal episodes of malana in Ethiopia. It is the cause of severe and complicated malaria in which the case fatality rate is about 10 % in hospitalised adults and up to 33 per cent in children less than 12 years old Selkhozpromexport, 1988, cites morbidity rates of 40 per cent, but believes they should be higher due to the mortality of undiagnosed children. Plasmodium vivax is also widely distributed and often precedes the transmission of P. falciparum. Plasmodium vivax is more common in the dry season, and whether this is due to active transmission or relapses has not been clearly determined This species is not a major cause of mortality but is an important cause of morbidity due to the phenomenon of relapse
In Gambela it has been observed that residents speaking the Nilotic languages are more
resistant to P. vivax infections than are the more recent arrivals to these lowlands, who speak 
Semetic and Cushitic languages (Armstrong 1978) Later studies established the absence of
Duffy antigen in Nilotic speakers (Mathews 1981). Though malaria has seasonal transmission,
agricultural development schemes are considered to be highly malarious. This is mainly due to
migrant labourers who often go into these areas from the less malarious and malaria-free
regions with little or no exposure-related immunity
Irrigated agricultural development will undoubtedly increase the presence of surface water throughout the year, extending the duration of suitable habitat for anopheles breeding (aedes the carrier of yellow fever, prefers areas close to habitations for breeding (Selkhozpromexport.
1988). This will create a change in the dynamics of transmission from seasonal to perennial Physical environmental modifications, such as the draining of stagnant water bodies and filling of hollows and burrow pits, when carried out regularly, have proven to be effective The early detection and prompt treatment of cases remains the cornerstone in reducing morbidity and mortality due to malaria
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3D-5SOCIO-ECONOMIC
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Ethiopia makes use of DDT in its anti-malarial campaigns in some parts of the country (The Monitor. 1996, Addis Tribune. 199(5), but this is a banned pesticide Other pesticides 
(hexachloron, dieldrin, etc) also have adverse impacts (Selkbozpromexport, 1988). Chemo prophylaxis is not suitable other than for protection of temporary, nor.-immune visitors. Immunity development is a possible response but high mortality is likely of non-immune immigrants Insect treated mosquito nets have proven effective in reducing the incidence of malaria in West Africa and .Asia Eventually a vaccine may provide effective protection against malaria
2.2 Sanitation
The concept of "Health for all by the Year 2000' and the Declaration of Primary Health Care (PHC) by WHO in 1978 emphasises the need for and urgency of providing safe and adequate water supply and basic sanitation According to the 1984 census, rivers and lakes were still the major sources of domestic water supply in urban areas in Wellega, and wells and springs (about half of them unprotected) tn Hlubabor and Kefia Earlier studies have indicated that only a small proportion of the inhabitants of the project area have access to dependable supplies of safe and potable water The majority of the population use unprotected sources of water, including rivers, streams, springs and water holes
The sanitation situation in Ethiopia, both in urban and rural areas, is among the worst in the world. From a survey done by the Ethiopian Valleys Development Studies Authority (EVDS?\
1990) on sanitation in the project area, only half of the urban and less than 1% of the rural papulation were estimated to be served with safe means of excreta disposal According to one report, no sanitation facilities are present in the entire Gambela region except in schools, clinics and some residences (UNDP 1993). The Letter of Sector Polity of the Ministry of Water Resources (1996) slates that only 7 per cent of Ethiopians have access to sanitation, which it defines as a latrine
■Among the most common diseases in the project area are those that are caused by pathogens transmitted in human excreta The transmission of these diseases is mainly due to poor
hygienic conditions and lack of safe drinking water Intestinal protozoa like Entamoeba
histolytica and Giardia lambba and intestinal helminths like Ascans himbncoides, Triahuris
trichuna, Ancytostoma duodenale, Strongloydes stercoralis are the leading causes for out
patient visits in the project area Improved sanitary conditions and the provision of adequate
potable water will definitely improve the occurrence of diseases caused by these intestinal
parasites
Skin infections and diseases of the eyes are reported among the ten leading causes ot outpatient visits (Table 2). Some diseases of the eyes and the skin are frequently dependent on availability of water and sanitary conditions. In one study in Ethiopia, an inverse relationship between trachoma prevalence, living space, availability of latrines, and per capita water consumption has been shown (Tesfaye et al 1988) Among schoolchildren in Wellega, scabies has been found to be highly prevalent (Hojer er al 1973) Other waler associated diseases are shown in Table 3.
TAMS-ULG Bin>AUobo River Bajin Inteumted Development Master Plan
-----
____ ifWM.SOCIO-ECONOMIC
ANNEX 3D SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE Table 3 Diseases associated with water1
Class
Vector
Name
Project area 1
Bacterial
Salmonella (typhoid) Enterobacteria (E.Coli, Campylobacter), Cholera
N °t reported
WATER-BORNE
Water acts as a passive vehicle for the infective agent
Leptospirosis
Viral
Hepatitis A, Poliomyelitis, rotavirus. Enteroviruses
Parasitic
Amoebiasis, Giardiasis, Balantidium coli
Prevalent
I
Enteric
e g a proportion of diarrhoea and gastro
enteric
Prevalent
WATER-WASHED
Infections that decrease as a result of increasing the volume of available water
Skin
Scabies, Ringworm,
Ulcers, pyodermitis
Prevalent
J
Louse-Borne
Typhus and related fevers
Not reported
T reponemat oses
Yaws, bejel. Pinta
Not reported
Eye And Ear
Otitis, conjunctivitis.
Trachoma
Prevalent
WATER-BASED
Necessary- part of the life cycle of the infective agent takes place in an aquatic organism
Crustaceans
Guinea worm,
Paragonimiasis
Not reported
Fish
Diphyllobothriasis,
Anisakiasis, Flukes
Not reported
J
Shellfish
Flukes, Schistosomiasis
Prevalent
WATER-RELATED Infections spread by 
1 insects that bread in water or bite near it
Mosquitoes
Malaria, Filariasis, Yellow fever. Dengue,
Haemorrhagic fever
Highly 
prevalent
Tsetse Flies
Trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness)
Highly 
prevalent
Blackflies
Onchocerciasis
] Highly 
prevalent
Source: Prost. A. 1993. The Management of Water Resources Development and Human Health u‘
Tropics. In: Hydrology and water Management m the Humid Tropics. Bound. Hufsbmidt and Glad* ■ ’
Table 3 P 442- Cambridge University Press. 
___________ '
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3D - 7SOCIO-ECONOMIC
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HEALTH SERVICES
3 j General
The six-licred national health care system consists (from bottom) of community health services
I health posts ), health stations (clinics), district hospitals, regional hospitals, and central referral hospitals The existing community health service or health post at the base is staffed by one community health agent (CHA) and one trained traditional birth attcndani (TBA) to render basic health services. These services include promotion of community participation, control of communicable diseases, provision of Maternal and Child Health (MCH) services and provision of curative services for minor illnesses. Each health post is expected to serve a minimum of
1.000 population Health stations, the lowest level health services operated directly by the Ministry of Health, are widely distributed in rural areas mostly in villages and small towns. In the project area rhe number of health stations are 143 in Region 4, 32 in Region 6, 8 in Region
II and 25 in Region 12 .As data for Region 11 could not be obtained, the current number of health centres and health stations may be slightly more (indicated in Annex C as no available date, NAD , in the existing health stations column}. Each health station is staffed by one or two health assistants (the larger ones by a nurse) and is anticipated to serve at least 10,000 population within a 10-12 km radius Health stations provide regular ouipatieni services and basic MCH care, and develop and implement environmental sanitation and water supply programs.
Health Centres are staffed by a physician, nurses, sanitarians, laboratory' technicians and health assistants. In the project area the number of health centres arc 7 in Region 4, 3 in Region 6, 3 in Region 11 and 4 in Region 12. Health Centres are the major health facilities of weredas and provide more specialised outpatient services as well as supervise and support health stations Each health centre is expected to provide senices for al I East 100 000 population. Hospitals 
T
are the most specialised and best staffed, and are expected to serve as referral centres for their catchmeni areas In the project area the number of hospitals are 4 in Region 4, 1 in Region 6,
1 in Region 11 and 1 in Region 12 with a total 660 beds.
Maternal and Child Health (MCH) service is more and more gaining popularity. This can be illustrated by the fact that services given to pregnant women and children in Gambela has shown a sharp increase of 132% over the service planned for 1995. MCH and family planning (MCHTP) are integrated services given at all levels of the health service system To the mothers, the objective is to provide antenatal care, delivery service for pregnant women, and family planning service for women 15-49 age group in general; to the child, the objective is to provide curative and preventive health service Immunisation of children through the Expanded Program of Immunisation (EPr> for the six immunizable childhood diseases TB. poliomyelitis, diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus and measles is an important part of MCH program The status of immunisation for the project area is shown in Tables (4) and (5)
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3D -8SOCIO-ECONOMIC
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Table 4
Immunisation r
ates in 1992, in ru
ral areas (%)
Criterion
Asosa 
Gambela
Illubabor
Keffa
W ellega
National
<1 year (BCG)
-
-
-
T
<1 year (measles)
-
-
-
<1 year (DPT-3)
35 3
14 0
16.6
91
<1 year (Polio-3)
-
-
-
<1 year (fully immunised)
29.7
8.5
10 7
19 0
9.0
12.0
130
6.9
Women 15-49 (TT2)
24.5
9.9 110 5.5
70
Source; (regional regional health proOles and 5 year Health Plans. Ministry of Health, 1992
(national: National Population Policy of Ethiopia op. cit
The 1996 Ministry of Health program has improved the health infrastructure The overall objective of the new health service is to provide an acceptable standard of comprehensive and integrated health care through equitably distributed health institutions at the grass-roots level Thus, the existing six-tier health care delivery system is reduced to four tier At the base of the pyramid are health centres with five satellite community health services or health posts
Table 5 
Immunisation rates in 1995 (% of population)
Immunised (per cent)
Project areas
National
BCG
Measles
DPT 3
Polio 3
TT 2P
52 6 59 0
32.6 35.0
40.0 41.0
40.2 40.0
29.1
19 0
--
Source unpublished data, from Mother and Child Health Department. Ministry of Health
A r n h h nS
h e^°h t', anons ^d bX° new heSh pos.7o 5 000 „7 ?
77° 7 FeplaCed
by 
beal,h
pos,s-
heal,h.P°SI ™’
replacing «*** the catchment of
system is designed tA h P pu ?tl°" Annex 3D gives the organogram of a health centre The
exceDt that coveraw 7?RCra 7 7
remain with the same functions as now
health centre th 8 Il7 reduced to 25,000 population instead of 100,000. Under each
2172 bsTfor^T, .be a heal,hPos,s The budget for the health centre is Birr 672,000 and
in Table 1 in Annex^R*" Tt?P k7bUdSr' resPect,vely- The total budget breakdown is shown
?63 352 78 an^Ts ion J
163,352.78 and 945.928 for recurrent and capital respecttvelv These figures may varv dependmg on the matenals used for building the health posts as shown bv the budge, breakdown in Table 2 in Annex 3B.
P ‘anned tO 03101 f°r 1116 heaJlh needs of 100’000 population, the existing
es in the project area will have to be increased by four-fold to satisfy the present
for ,he five hcal,h Po5ts under ^ch health centre is
policy of the Ministry-of Health Similarly the health stations that are operational bez’col i nverted to health posts with an increase of their numbers according to the
of health centres, that is to five health posts for each health centre
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
3D -9
will need to
totaJ numbe-SQCIO-ECO.NOMICANNEX 3D SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE
Within a population, different age and socio-economic groups have a much greater likelihood of experiencing illness and dying Infants and children less than 5 years of ane. and mothers of child bearing age (15-49 years) fall into that category, where they comprise 37 9% of the existing population (estimate from 1984 CSA census) According to a recent survey' conducted by the Ministry of Health (1995), the Intant Mortality Rate (0 year) and Child Mortality Rate (1-4 years) for the whole country are 105/1000 and 52.5/1000 respectively.
Table 6 shows the Infant and Child Mortality Rates for the project area In addition to the usual childhood diseases like polio, whooping cough, diphtheria and measles, children suffer more frequently than adults from diarrhoea, respiratory infections, malnutrition, tetanus and malaria The health care system should be improved and strengthened to reduce morbidity and mortality rates of these vulnerable groups of the population
Table 6 Regional mortality indicator by type of residence in 1984
Sex
niubnbor KefTa
Wellega National
Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural 1 Urban Rural Urban
i Males
Females
Infant Mortality Rate (0 year/1000)
114 0 101 6 144 0 103 4 99 2 86.3
118.2 102 8
98.3 88.5 126.9 88 9 87 3 68 1 104.3 84,9 ,
Males
Females
Child Mortality Rate (1-4 years)
52.8 44 6 74.5 45 8
43 1 35.1 55.7 45.5
53.9 46.3 78 6 46.4 45 5 31.3 58 7 43.6
Source CSA 1990
The Maternal and Child Health (MCH) program integrated in the health infrastructure is meant to take care of these vulnerable population groups by implementing both curative and preventive health services The MCH program provides a generally low coverage for the country (Table 7) and. as it is an important pan of the heallh service, needs to receive more attention The National Expanded Program of Immunisation (EPI), a component of the MCH program, has an even lesser coverage rate (Table 3 Annex SB). Improvement of these low rates, particularly the EPl, could be achieved by promoting social mobilisation through health education and by encouraging mothers and care takers of infants in the project area As the MCH program is fully supported by UNICEF through the provision of basic requirements and is integrated within the infrastructure of health institutions, the additional cost required to make it optimally operational will be minimal
According to the MOH’s 1996 report on Cost-effectiveness and Program Evaluation of Major Health Interventions, the total cost for complete immunisation per child is Birr 58 50. This includes cost of labour Birr 1.92, vaccine Birr 6,66, overhead Bin 49,92 Depending on the geographic location and the population density the number of accessible outreach posts for immunisation may need to be increased, Supplementing the overhead expense mentioned above may improve the immunisation coverage rale in the project area
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master PlanSOCIO-ECONOMIC
ANNEX 3D SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE
3.2 
Medical
and
Health F
acilities
The
provision
of
health
services 
currently 
is 
obviously 
inadequate
Data
extracted
from
national census results indicate the following:
Table 7 Facilities in Major Towns in the Project Area (1994/95)
Hospital beds
Clinics
Health Centres
Total National 9,675 2,470
187 " J
| Gambeia 32 3
1 Benshangul-Gumuz 254
72
4
Lllubabor*
346
136
10
Wollega
344
172
8
Total Regional
1,039 412
25
• Note Figures for Wollega and Illubabor are taken from the CSA Statistical Abstract of 1990/91. Latest figures according to the new division of administrative regions are not available
Further analysis of the above data shows the difference between national average and that of the Baro- Akobo region
Table 8 Differences in Facilities between National Average and the Project Area
1
--------------
1
Persons per
1
Hospital Bed
Clinic
Health Centre
National Average
5,685
22,267
294.118
I The Regi=on---’-s- Ave>—rage
_
! Gambeia
4,857
12,250
201,874
1,972
5.855
62.450
Benshangul-Gumuz
1,867
6.587
118.568
| Illubabor
2,448
6,228
84.705’
1 Wollega
10,334
| 20,668
449,371
Table 9 Mortality Rates (Less than 5 years of age)
Per 1.000 live births
| National
117*
The Region’s Average
177
II Gambeia
137
|l Benshangul Gumuz
209
|| Illubabor
176
) West Wollega
175
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master PlanSOCIO-ECONOMIC
ANNEX 3D SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE
Table 10 Distribution of Health Personnel
F
______
--- 1 1 1
-----------
Doctor Nurse Health Assistant Pharmacist Lab. Technician
Xation 1432 3,697
11,186
174
^91 h
1 (perso ns/pcr)
“----------------- 1
!" National average 38,408 14,877
4,917 315,092
69,532
Region’s average 46.730 12.400
3,519
186,920
62.307
Gambela 13 33 98 1 5
1 Benshangul- Gumuz
25 64 233 i
3 (
“ Ji
Illubabor* 47 17! 593 16 41 
Wollega* 23 139 510 7 23
'1
Total 108 407
1 434 27
81 |
Note Due to lack of data for Oromiya Region, Wollega and Hlubabor dat3 has been taken
from 1991/92 Statistical Abstract oftheCSA
3.3 Comparative Position of the Region
Most of the above comparative statistics show the Baro-Akobo River Basin is not significantly worse of than most other regions Indeed the averages show better statistics except for mortality rates. The understanding one can derive from the above indicators could be
- The provision of health services is generally nationally very low and only very few urban centres are slightly in a better position than the rest of the country, and
- The mortality rate is higher in the Baro-Akobo area more due to lack of clean
water, poor hygiene and relatively lower standard of life than the average national condition.
Therefore, by way of provision of health services, the region deserves similar attention as most under prosided regions in the country . More concentration on provisions of clean water, better living conditions and general growth in standard of life and increased awareness of hygiene could help alleviate the high mortality rate.
3.4 Distances Travelled to Reach a Health Centre
Excluding Addis Ababa and Regional capitals, there are only 46 hospitals and about 7,000 clinics in the country This means more than 1 million persons per hospital and about 6,700 persons per clinic.
Considering the country’s large area, about 50 persons per square kilometre in the rural areas, it is possible that patients would travel more than 120 kilometres to reach a hospital and about 30 kilometres to reach a clime
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master PlanSOCIO-ECONOMIC
ANNEX 3D SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE
4. NUTRITIONAL STATUS
Malnutrition is a common and widespread problem in the country. In the rural areas m Ethiopia among children aged 6 to 59 months 8% are "wasted" i e. below 90% height for age and above 80% weight for height which indicates acute malnutrition (Waterlow 1973); 64% are "stunted" i.e 90% height for age and 80% weight for height which indicates chronic malnutrition (Waterlow 1973): and 48% are "underweight” i.e., low weight for age (CSA 1992) According to published data by CSA (1992), the nutritional status of children in the age group 6 to 59 months in the project area is shown in Table 7 It is more or less comparable to the national figures
Table 11. Nutritional Status among children age 6-»-59 months in 1992 (%)
Type of Malnutrition
Illubabor
Kefla
Wellega
National
Wasting (acute) Stunting (chronic) Underweight
Source: CSA 1992
91
67 1
52.5
7.3
60.9
38 2
10 8
592
51.6
To
649
47.7
Specific nutritional deficiencies like anaemia, which is prevalent in the area either as direct iron deficiency or as indirect parasitic or other diseases, is reported in Illubabor and Gambella Such specific deficiencies need to be attended by direct intervention on the root cause and in- providing supplement Improving the general nutritional status of the population by providing supplementation will not be feasible; strengthening nutrition within the MCH program of the health institutions is a more appropriate approach
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3D - 13SOCIO- E CON OMIC
ANNEX 3D SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE
5 lmpact of storage sites and irrigation on health
The Baro-Akobo Master Plan project has as its objective the general development of 75,912 km2 its development program will have an impact on the life style of the population bv improving its socio-economic status It is expected the project will construct five dams, which will create water bodies that will produce hydroelectric power and irrigation In the area the population is composed of diverse ethnic groups (Table 1), with a continuous in and out movements of migrants. About 600.000 people are known io have settled in 1985, which corresponds to a population increase of 35% in that particular year alone Most of these settlers from the northern part of the country have since moved out, but due to the political situation in the Sudan the movement of refugees is constant, particularly in the Gambela area
With the possibility of job opportunities during the construction period and the development of irrigation later on, an attraction will be created for settlers from outside the area This new influx will change the existing population structure both in number and age structure The existing health infrastructure system will have to accommodate the health needs of a new population that will eventually increase in number Thus, a well-defined knowledge of endemic diseases by location and prevalence density has to be mapped out to take preventive as well as curative measures. A possibility of screening out new diseases brought into the community will help reduce the cosl of treatment and the spread of the disease among the indigenous population The cost estimate of such practice will need an in-depth study, which requires looking at the cost benefit of the screening process
Regarding the existing health infrastructure of the Project area, if the 1996 Ministry of Health
policy- of four-tier health care delivery is to be implemented, immediate attention should be
given to accommodate it The new health infrastructure will have a health centre at the base of
the pyramid with five health posts. As each new health centre is expected io serve a population
of 25000, there is an immediate need to increase the number of health centres corresponding
to the population of each wereda Accordingly, the present number of health centres with their
satellite health posts needs to be increased to a total of 66 health centres and -404 health posts, depending on the population size (details can be seen in xAnnex 3C) Similarly, the existing
health stations will have to be converted to health posts and their numbers adjusted to the
number of health centres in the different areas From experience in the past, the establishment
of health posts was not the responsibility of the Ministry of Health but was undertaken by the
respective communities This undertaking was in most cases supported by NGOs with
consents from regional offices of the Ministry of Health. In a similar manner the Baro-Akobo
River Basin Project may have to take the responsibility of establishing the future health posts 
As defined by the policy, it will be the responsibility of health centres to supervise the activities 
of the health posts The detailed budget for a health centre and five health posts according to
the Ministry of Health cost estimate is shown in Tables I and 2 in Annex 3B The Ministry of
Health manpower requirement and salary scale is shown in Annex 3D.
At present there is no immediate need to increase the number of hospitals Improvement of the diagnostic facilities and increasing the number of beds of the existing hospitals may satisfy- the need Taking an inventory- of the hospitals in each wereda will indicate the exact requirements as to how to make rhe improvements
TAMS-ULC Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
3D -14SOCIO-ECONOMIC
ANNEX 3D SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE
With the current restru
cturing
of
adm
inistrative
regions, shifting of weredas from one
administrative region to
a nei
ghbo
uring
wereda
in a different administrative region has 
occurred In some cases 
there
has 
been
a split
of weredas belonging to two administrative
zones An example of thi
s is B
iegi.
Gida
mi and
Anfilo in Region 6 and Region 4 This has 
created a problem for the present report in accounting the exact locations of health service institutions (a total of 4 health centres and 24 health stations)
However, health service facilities that will be required for the entire development project will depend on the geographic location of population settlement and the development of road transportation of the area It is not only the existence of the health institutions that is important but also their accessibility to the population that will ensure the proper utilisation of the health facilities If road transportation is not available, the existence of a health institution may not achieve its goal to alleviate the health problems of the area This, in particular, applies to the health posts, the lowest level of the health service. It may be of importance to anticipate a unequal distribution of health posts/5000 population (according to the 1996 MOH policy) in the different dams and irrigation sites, as the number of settlers may vary.
Inclusion of specialised services such as laboratory diagnostic facilities in some of the health centres may be necessary to accommodate the need to diagnose prevalent endemic parasitic diseases This will not only help the process of treatment, but also help in case-finding campaigns that will eventually reduce the prevalence of endemic diseases Eventually it will result in the reduction of the disease burden in the communities, which will enhance the planned process of development in the project area Overlooking the integration of such curative and preventive aspects may lead not only to high morbidity and mortality, but will be also a drawback for development.
Previous experience on resettlement and refugee health problem has shown that settlers from different geographical and ecological zones face serious problems with malaria by exhibiting high susceptibility' (.Armstrong 1978) On the other hand, the effects on transmission of diseases during the 1984-85 resettlement program, which resulted in the migration of many peasants from the highly schistosomia endemic areas of northern Ethiopia to areas of low endemicity in western Ethiopia, have not been fully assessed (Kloos 1993). One of the diseases that will probably increase with irrigation schemes would be Schistosomiasis For this reason careful planning and implementing of public health measures of prevention and monitoring would be important
The evolution of the population projection in the year 2035 shows an increase which is dou e the 1995 population (Table 12.). This will require a progressive increase of the number ol health services in the different weredas. Targets for future increase could be set using the : rate of population growth as predicted from present knowledge about the area, but it w
worthwhile to observe the pattern of population movement during the development pro Settlements would tend to cluster around the irrigation sites, and that would require spec^ attention regarding the type of health service delivery to be rendered. Unless there is a c h in health infrastructure policy, the cost of increasing the numbers of health centres an posts will be based on the number of population in the different areas of the Projeet . planning process, unexpected natural disasters and epidemics that may increase t services cost will need to be accommodated. Such situations may require mobilisa
skilled manpower for a limited period of time The overall needs assessment regarjL—— TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
3D -15SOCIO-ECONOMIC
ANNEX 3D SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE
will depend on acquiring adequate data on population movements, demo graphic indicators and monitoring it to the best use in the Project urea.
Table ]1 Evolution of project area population, 1995+2035
Year
1995
2000
Population ('000)
Urban
152 5
225 0
i
Rural
2029
2236
Total
2211 5
2461.0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2479
2752
3061
3393
3737
4107
4501
270.5
324.0
389 0
469.0
564.0
668 0
778.0
2749,5
3077.0
3-150.3
3962.0
4301 4
4775 9
5279 6
TAMS-L'LG Ban+Akobu River Basin Inicgraied Development Master Plan
3D - 16i
SOCIO-ECONOMIC
ANNEX 3D SOCIAL INFRA STR rn-r
6. HOUSING
6.1 General
Housing conditions for the project area are considering using six urban centres selected frorr the different regions in the project area These urban centres are Asosa, Dembidolo Musi Metu. Gore, and Gambela
The criteria of comparison selected are
• Clean drinking water
• Toilet facility
• Bathing facility
• Electric lighting
• Kitchen facility
• Rooms per housing unit (average)
6.2 Current Conditions
Housing units having the above facilities are considered to be indicative of unproved living conditions In general the standard of provision of decent housing can be the above criteria The percentage of housing units having the above facilities is given below'
Table 13
Nation’ Asosa Dembidolo Mugi
Metu Gore
Gambcia
Clean water
67 9 32.6 32.5 1.8
82 5
1.8 66.9
Toilet facility
49.7
86.7 78.5 79.2 70.2
59.0 30.0
Bathing facility
7.2
3.5 4 0 2.7 5.5 4.1 11.2
Electric lighting 3.1
74.9 77.1 0.5
71.5 78 3 392
Kitchen facility 63.8
---- *----- ;— Rooms/housing unit
9.4 2.2
3.5 8.9 1.8 2.5
2.5
1.9 2.5 2.1 i 2.3 2.3 i-L
As can be seen from the data given above, the comparison between the region’s selected urban centres and the national taken from the 1984 census) does not show wide differences except in clear drinking water and bathing facilities. It should be noted that the provision of decent housing is a national problem where all urban centres including the major towns have serious shortages Measures should be taken to upgrade the level of housing facilities.
, 19^* ‘ Note: The national averages are taken from the results of the 1984 census as t e
results are not yet available.
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Pl*n
3D -17SOCIO-ECONOMIC
ANNEX 3D SOCIAL INFRA STR LCTl RE
Urban development is tied up with the genera! economic development of the country. Agro industries, trade and general growth in the standard of living of the urban population are critical conditions for such development This is mainly because the facilities need to be sustainable by the urban communities themselves ones the government or a housing organisation makes the baste infrastructure available. Urban dwellers should be able to generate sufficient income to pay for potable water, electricity, and better housing
To improve housing conditions to the extent possible, such schemes as access to credit for housing co-operatives and committed government support are essential The availability of land should be made easy as far as planned and sustainable projects are produced
Similar schemes like those administered in Addis Ababa by the Ministry of Urban Development and Housing and the Urban Development Unit for Addis Ababa in the past could be extended for the major urban centres in the Baro-Akobo River basin regions
Appropriate types and sizes of housing units would cost between Birr 800-1,000 per m‘ with some self-help input. Middle and high income households could own modest houses through such through schemes using long term financing plans The implementation of such schemes could bring together the zonal or regional urban planning bureaux, the local administrators and the Construction and Business Bank (former Housing and Savings) More could be drawn
from the experiences of those who have implemented formidable sizes of housing projects in Addis .Ababa using similar schemes It should however be noted such projects should follow' the emergence of an income generating and dynamic middle class in each of the urban centres 
The implementation of the different projects that could come as a spin-off from the larger phases of Baro-Akobo River Basin development could create a convenient situation
TAMS-1JLG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master plan
3D - 18SOCIO-ECONOMIC
ANNEX 3D SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE
REFERENCES
Armstrong, JC. Susceptibility to vivax malaria in Ethiopia Trans R Soc Trop Med Hye 19“R
Ayele. T The distribution of schistosomiasis in Ethiopia Results of 1978-82 survey [r
Teklemariam Ayele and C.T. Lo (eds). Schistosomiasis in Ethiopia Proceedings of a
Symposium on Human Schistosomiasis in Ethiopia Pp 1-8 Addis Ababa Lnistitute of
Pathobiology. 1982
Buden, H Report on the Investigation carried out in November as a WHO shon-term Consultant Ministry of Health, Addis Ababa 1981
Central Statistics Authority 1984 Census
Central Statistics Authority 1992 National Rural Nutrition Survey
DeSole, G . Walton, JC. Onchocerciasis in Gemu Gofa: an anthropological and ecological survey Ethiop Med J. 1976; 14; 37-48
EVDSA 1990. W^ater supply and sanitation
Helmut Kloos and Zein Ahmed Zein Bancroftian Filariasis and Drunculiasis. In Helmut Kloos and Zein Ahmed Zein (eds ). The Ecology of Health and Disease in Ethiopia Pp 5H- 512 Boulder, Colorado W'esterview 1993
Helmut Kloos Schistosomiasis In Helmut Helmut Kloos and Zein Ahmed Zein (eds), The Ecology of Health and Disease in Ethiopia Pp 412-424. Boulder. Colorado Westerview 1993
Hojer, B and Nordberg E. Health survey of a rural elementary school in Ethiopia Ethiop Med J 1973. 11:75-92.
Hutchinson, MP Human trypanosomiasis in South W est Ethiopia Ethiop Med J 1971,
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Kloos, H ; Lo, CT; Birrie, H ; Ayele, T.; Tedla, S.; Tsegay, F. Schistosomiasis in Ethiopia
Soc Sci Med 1988, 26: 803-827
Krafsur, E S Malaria transmission in Gambella, Hlubabor province Ethiop Med J 1971; 27 42-54.
Lindtjom, B ; Alemu, T.; Bjorvatn, B. Population growth, fertility, mortality and migration in drought prone areas in Ethiopia Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 1993.
Lo, C T., Abraham Redda and Negash Gemeda Malcological studies of human Schistosomia sis in Ethiopia In: TekJemanam Ayele and Hailu Birre (eds.), Schistosomiasis in Ethiopia Pp 40-47. Addis Ababa Institute of Pathobiology, 1982.
Lo, CT, H. Kloos and Hailu Birrie Schistosomisasis In: Zein .Ahmed Zein and H Kloos (eds), The Ecology of Health and Disease in Ethiopia Pp. 196-213 Addis Ababa Ministry of Health, 1988
Mathews, HM. .Armstrong. JC Duffy blood types and vivax malaria in Ethiopia Am J fr°P Med Hyg 1981
McConnell, E.; Dennis, DT A survey for Wuchereria bancrofti in Ethiopia. Ethiop Med J 1976
Mekonnen M and Kloos H Yellow Fever and Other Arboviral Diseases. In Helmut KJco_ and Zein .Ahmed Zein (eds ). The Ecology of Health and Disease in Ethiopia Pp J 396. Boulder, Colorado Westerview 1993
Ministry of Health 1992 Regional health profiles and 5 year Health Plan.—
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Pl*n
3D - 19socio-economic
ANNEX 3D SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE
Ministry of Health 1996. Health Srvice Standards Health Centre.
Tedla Shibru. H Kloos and GeLachew Tilahun (eds) Schistosomiasis in Ethiopia Addis Ababa: Addis Ababa University Press, 1^89
TesfayeB , H Kebede, J Tesfaye et al The prevalence of nachoma in Chorege Proceeding of the Ninth Public Health and Research Conference Pp. 13-15, Gondar College of Medical Sciences, 1988.
UNDP 1993. Gambela needs assessment survey Waterlow, J C. Note on the classification of protein-energy malnutrition in children Lancet ii, 87 1973.
TAMS-ULG Buru-Akobo River Basin InteEraicd Development Muster Pluri
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Summery

Baro-Akobo River Basin Climatology Summary

Climate Zones

Aw: Tropical with dry winters (680-1200mm)
Am: Rainforest climate (1200-2800mm)
Cwb: Warm temperate with dry winters
Cfb: Humid temperate with year-round rain

Key Climate Patterns

Element	Pattern	Range/Peak
Rainfall	Single peak	275.8mm (July)
Temperature	Elevation-dependent	>30°C (Feb-Apr), <25°C (Jun-Jul)
Humidity	Follows rainfall	>80% (Jul-Sep)

Data Characteristics

Data coverage varied significantly by parameter:

Rainfall: 42 stations (38% complete)
Temperature: 20 stations (35% complete)
Humidity: 6 stations (34% complete)

Missing data was estimated using statistical patching models.

Long-term Trends

Rainfall decreased ~400mm (1952-1984) then recovered
Maximum temperatures showed warming trend (1973-1988)
Humidity stabilized after period of high variability