Iff.de ra15democratic REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA Ml X IS I RY OF WATER RESOURCES
*-■
’■
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BARO-AKOBG RIVER BASIN INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT MASTER PLAN STUDY
FINAL REPORT
Volume I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
May 1997
TAMS
New York
ULG CONSULTANTS LTD
Wirwuik, UKrFEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA MINISTRY OF WATER RESOURCES
BARO-AK.OBO RTVER BASIN INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT MASTER PLAN STUDY
/
VOLUME I
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
TAMS-tlLG B^AkoboRiverB!|rinjn—b v^p^y
C               Ta,1crPtanINDEX OF VOLUMES AND ANNEXES
Volume I:.............................-
Volume FI:............ «.*****■■■■»**♦*■•■■■**•■• EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1
Volume Uli:
resource Base And De\tlofment Options
Volume TV '■ •»* + *■•■ • ■■■■WWW****"""® Master pla"*n development
Volume ...................... ••••........ ......... .. Project Area Maps Pre FEASIBILITY STUDIES
annexes
I. WATER RESOURCES
Annex 1A
Climatology
Annex IB........................................ Hydrology
.Annex IC. ........................... Flood Studies
Annex ID
Ground Water
Annex IE                        Reservoir Operation Studies Annex IF Sediment Studies
Annex 1G Water Resources Cost Estimating
Annex 1H*.......................... .............. Imgation Projects
Annex Annex 1J 
II             Water             Supply             Projects Hydropower Projects
Z AXTURAJ. RESOURCES
Annex 2ALand Evaluation
Annex 2B Soils and Soil Conservation
Annex 2C         Geology
Annex 2D........................................ Mineral Resources Annex 2E.Forestry
Annex 2F  Wildlife
.Annex 2G                 Tourism Annex 2H Apiculture
Annex 21..................... Agriculture Annex 2J             Renewable Energy
Annex 2K
Annex 2L  Livestock 3. soao-fawoiwcs
Fisheries
Annex SA     .................................... Population Aspects
Annex 3B........................................... Socio-Ethnic Groups Analysis
Annex SC
Economic Infrastructures
Annex 3D Social Infrastructures Annex 3E
Annex 3F Institutional Support 4 £M7R0W£VT
, Economic and Financial Analysis
Annex 4— ..........................................Environment
TAMS-ULG Biro-A kobo River Basin Integrated Be%elupmeiit Master PlanEXECUTIVE SUMMARY
VOLUME I
VOLUME 1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
TAMS-VU; BartHAkobo River B«,n
D«cjopinem
WallVOLUME I
executive summary
CONTENTS
■■■■***■ ■■■■ ■     ........................ I
11         Report Composition
1 2        Background............................ ...............
1.3        Project Area ................................. —■
1.3.1        topography and climate............................................
... 1
...... ....... 2
.................. :
.................. 2
................ 2
1.5
16
Economic Conditions
Critical Issues
5
... 5
17
Development Objectives and Constraints
............
6
................. 6
7.7.2        Implementation criteria................. ....... ’........................
7.7.3        Planning periods...................... -................ .................... .. ..........
2. RESOURCE BASE
................ 7
.................. 7
.................A8
...............fl
2
I
Introduction...
— 
2 2 Waler Resources 
2.2.1
2.2.2
2.2.3
2.24
2.2.5
2.2.6
2.2.7
!ntFfvhir tinin
,
............. ............................. .
9
.............y
Hydrology (Annex IB)...................................................
.......... 10
I-lood Studies (Annex 1C).............................................
.......10
Ground Harer (Annex JD)...„„..............
........ 10
Tteservorr OperarioNs (Annex IE)......... ...................... ....................................... ..
......... 12
Sedimentation (Annex IF)............................................ .................................... ♦ .....................
.........
......... 12
2.3 Natural Resources and Agriculture............................................................................................. 12
2.3d Introduction........................ —....... ................................................... ......................................... 72
2.3.2        Land Evaluation (Annex 2A)»12
2.3.3         Soils and Soil Conservation (Annex 28).....♦,13
2.3.4         Geology (Annex 2C)  73
2.          J. 3       Mineral Resources 6J nnex 2D)............................................................................ 13
2.3.6       Forestry' (Annex 2E)............. , ............................. ,................... ....................................... 13
2.3.7         Wildlife (Annex 2 F).......................... ♦+........................... . ............................................. 14
2.3.8         Tourism (Annex 2G)....................................................................................... ................ 14
2.3.9         Apiculture (Annex 2 Hj,
2.3.10      Agriculture (Annex 2 1) ..................................................... .......................................... 14
2.3.11      Renewable Energy (Annex 2 J)i&
2.3.12       Fisheries (Annex 2 K)......................... ....................... .......... 2.3.13       livestock (Annex 2 L)„
2 4 Human Resources and Infrastructure
2.41 Introduction...... / 7
............................................................ 17
2-4.2 Population (Annex 3A)....................................................................................... „
2.4.3       S0Cf0-erfrnrc groups ono/ys/s fXnoex 35J..................... ...... ........................ ................
2.4.4         Economic Infrastructures (Annex 3C).................................................... TAMS-ULG Bam-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master PlanEXECUTIVE SUMMARY
volume t
2              Human health (Annex 3 Dj
3. SUMMARY OF DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS....................................
31
3.2
3.2.1
3.2.2
3.2.3
3.2.4
33
3.3.1
3.3.2
3.3.3
3.3.4
3.3.5
3.36
3.3.7
3.3.8
3 3.9
34
3.1/
3.4.2
3.4.3
3.4.4
3.4.5
Introduction —...... ......... .........................
Water resources projects ................ ...................
Introduction............................ ........... .. .........
Hydropower (Annex J J)-............................. *
large-scale irrigation (Annex !H;...................
Flood   Protection   (Annex   iC).................. Natural resources and agriculture
Smallholder agriculture (Annex 21).............
Soil conservation (Annex 2B)......................
Livestock (Annex 2L) ................. •...... .........
Fisheries (Annex 2K).. .......................... .
Forestry (Annex 2E)......................... ............
Apiculture (Annex 2H)...........................
Wildlife (Annex 2F)......................................
Tourism (Annex 2G)....................................
Mineral resources (Annex 2D).....................
Social infrastructure....................................
................................. 18
20
• 20
-20
- 20 ...25
.27
.28
..28 ..29 ..29
.30
.30
.31
.31 32 32
32
Renewable energy (Annex 2J).......... ....... ..... .................. ..... ......................... ..........
Water supply, Waste water collection, treatment and disposal (Annex 11)......
Solid waste collection and disposal.................... ..................... . ................ .............. .33
Roads (Annex 3C)..................................................... ...... ........................ .................
Basin Transmission system (Annex ]J)............................. . .
4. water resource planning
4 1 Integrated water resources development ..
4.1.1        Introduction............................................................ 4.1.2        System Modelling........................................
4.1.3        Sjzwewj Model for the Baro River Basin .
. .          ...     39
.......39
....39
40
-1.1.4       System Model for the A/were River Basin.
...42
4.1.5        System Model for the Gilo River fiasi'n.......
..... 42
4 2 Programme for Hydropower Development
4.2.1 Medium and Large Projects............................... ....... .......... ........ 43
4.2.2 Small Projects........ ........ .. ......... ............................................. . ..44
4.3 Irrigation Projects ............................ .......... .............................. 45
4.3.1       Abvero  45
4 3.2       Baro............................... ................. ............................... 45
4 4 Water balance ........................................................................... 4 j 5. DEVELOPMENT OF THE MASTER PLAN...
43
5 I
5.2
52.1 5.2.2
53
5.3.1
5.3.2
54
Mam Planning Considerations................... ..................
Base Development Plan (Scenario 1)      ........................
Content..................... ............ ...................... .......................
Cost estimate........................ ............... ............. . ........... . Scenario 11 - Hydropower for Basin and Small-holder Irrigation
Content........................ ......................................... .........
Cost........... ...........................................,......... ........................ Scenario III - Hydropower for Basin and Commercial Irrigation
47
47
49
.49
......51
......51
51
TAMS-ULG Barv-Akobo River Bum Integrated Development Milter PtjuiEXECUTIVE summary
VOLUME I
547 542
55 55/ 552
56
56./
56.2 57
Content..............................•.............. *................................................ ..........
Cost.......................................................... .. ................................................... Scenario IV - Hydropower for Basin and ICS and Small-holder Irrigation
Content...... ............. —...................................................... .............................
Cost............. ..................... ................................................................... ;........ Scenario V - Hydropower for Basin and ICS and Commercial Irrigation
Content.......................................... —................ ............................. . .....
Cost........................................................................ ....................................... Scenario VI - Fast track hydropower and commercial imgation
5.7. J        Content.................... -................................ -........... .. ...................... ..............
5.7.2
Cost..... ............................................-............................................ ................
.57
.51
52
.52
.52 52
.52
.52 ..53
.53
.53
6.  MASTER PLANi RECOMMENDATION
6.1 Master Plan selection
6.7.7         Total investments—
6.1 2         Hase development. 6.1.3         Hydropower........
6.1.4          Irrigation.,. ............... - 615
6.2 Cash Flow
......................................... 54
.........................................54
......................
..........54
.........................................55
.....................................55
.........................................56
........................................ 56
7.   INSTITUTIONAL AND IMPLEMENTATION ST RATEGX ................................................ ...59
7.1       Introduction ................................................................................ ..................................... -59
", / I         Purpose................ .....................................................................................................      59
7.1.2       Regional and Federal Responsibilities....... ........... ....................................................... .,59
7 2 Phased Institutional development............................. ................... ...
59
7.2.1        Phase 1...........................................................................................................................59
7.2.2        Phase 2.....................................................................................................................      59
8.   CONCLUSIONS, RECOMMENDATIONS AND FUTHER STUDIES...................................... 63
8 1 Conclusions ....................................................................................... .......................................... 63
8.1.1 Human Resources............................. ,...................................... .............................................63
8.1.2         Water resources............................................................................................................ 63
8.1.3        Natural Resources......................................................................................................    63
8.1.4        Financial Resources.... ............... .............................................................................      63
8 2 Recommended Rural development
.... 63
8.2.1        Base development plan................
63
8.2.2         Soil conservation............. ................
64
8.2.3         Forests........................
8.2 4         Ramfed Agriculture..........................
8.2.5         Lrvesfock............................
8.2.6         Wildlife A Tourism......................
8.2.7        Rural economy...... ....................... 8.2.8         Mineral resources...........................
8.2.9         Renewable energy*.....................
8.2.10       Infrastructure..............................
8.2.11       Health....... ............ ................
64
64
64
65
65
66
66
67
67
8 3 W ater Resources Development
8.3.1         Hydropower................................
8.3.2         Irrigation schemes......................
■ + + + T + TT-
.68
.68
.68
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Bunin Integrated Development Master PlanEXECUTIVE SUMMARY
V °U Mt|
S3 J         Multipurpose schemes......................................................................................................... .....
8 4 Institutional Development ................................................................................
8.5 Further studies and investigations 
7r ,
8.5.}          Water resources.................................................................................................................. 7j 8 5.2        Natural resources7j
S.53        Socio-economics...................................................................................................................
8.5 4 Environment..■...................................................................................................
FIGURES
Figure 1-1 Study Area .
3
Figure 1-2 Topography ................................................................................................................ 4
Figure 2-1 Rainfall distribution and rainfall station network 
It
Figui e 2-2 Land capacity and farming sy stem s....                 15
Figure     3     1     Schematic     Representation     of     Existing     and     Potential     Damsites21
Figure 3-2 Dam Sites  ................................................................... 22
Figure 3-3 PotentiaUrrigation Projects 
26
Figure 3-4 Water Supply Programmes................................................................................ 34
Figure
3-5
Roads 
Development
Programme
36
Figure 3-6 Powerlines - Interconnected System............................................................................37
Figure 4-1 Alternative 1, Implementation Program for medium and large hydropower projects. 43
Figure 4-2 Implementation program for small hydropower projects 
44
Figure          5          1          Master          Plan          Development          Decision          Tree          48
Figure 6-1 Master Plan Development,.............................................................................................. .57
Figure 6-2 Summary of the Investment schedule of the proposed Master Plan (I & V) 58
Figure 7-1 Possible Organisation For Baro-Akobo Implementation For First Phase Detailed Planning And Capacity Building., ,61
Figure 7-2. Possible Organisation For Baro-Akobo Implementation For Second Phase Design.
Construction. Operation Of .Major Water Works System
..... 62
tables
Tabl e 2 1 S ummary of surface water resources 
Table 3 1 Ranking of Large Size Hydropower Projects 
Table 3 2 Ranking of Medium Size Hydropower Projects Table 3.3 Ranking of Small Size Hydropower Projects 
Table 3 4 Comparison wi± Projects in other Basins 
Table 6 I Summary of the cost of lhe 6 Scenarios, US$ millions 
.10
23
.23
.24 24
54
TAMS-I.LG Baro-Akabo River Basin Integrated Devdoptnent Mader Planexecutive summary
VOLUME I
INTRODUCTION
1.1        Report C omposition
This  Executive  Summary  presents  the  findings  of  (he  Baro-Akcbo  River  Basin  Integrated Development  Master  Plan  Project  in  south-western  Ethiopia,  which  is  one  of  twelve  Master Plans  commissioned  bv  the  Government  of  Ethiopia  to  assess  the  development  po  t  emm  o water,  natural,  and  social  resources  over  the  entire  country  The  study  is  presented  in  three
volumes of text (excluding this one} accompanied by technical annexes and maps, as follows
Volume II
Resource Base and Development Options
Volume Til
Master Plan Development
Volume IV
Maps
Volume V
Prefeasibility Studies
Annex 1
Water Resources
Annex 2
Natural Resources
Annex 3
Socio-Economics
Annex 4
Environment
1.2 Background
This study has been undertaken by an association of two firms; TAMS Consultants, Inc of
New York and ULG Consultants, Lid of Great Britain A contract was signed with the Water Resources Development Authority in June 1995. Project mobilisation commenced m July 
1995, with the arrival of the Project Manager, the project concluded during November 1996
The essential object of the assignment was the analysis stage of Master Planning, building on available daia collected in previous studies
The study  comprised three phases  inception, interim, and final. Project inception was completed in December 1995 The inception report describes  a review of the existing data base The interim phase was  completed in June 1996, and presented a portfolio of priority development projects  This  final report, completed in October 1996, builds  on the findings  of previous  reports  by  presenting a recommended Master Plan of development and a series  of pre-feasibility studies of high-priority water resources projects
The Master Plan is developed from a review of previous studies and published literature
.Anong these is a comprehensive study of the western project area completed by Selkhozpromexpon in 1990 (also referred to as the Soyuz study or the Russian Study}, another is a 1995 study of the eastern study area by ARDCO-GEOSERV
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Dcvclopnicuc Master Plan
1
Chapter 1executive summary
13 Project Area
j j j Topography and climate
The Baro-Akobo basin lies in southwestern Ethiopia (see Figure I -1) between latitudes 
To" N and longitudes 33° and 36° E The basin forms a joint border with the Sudan in ihc
its remaining boundanes form administrative borders with Regions 6, 4, and I I.
12 lies wholly within the Master Plan area These regions are Benshangul and Gumuz,
tinbela Oromiya and the Southern Nations and Nationalities Peoples Regions
While half of the project area lies  below 1,000m altitude its  highest elevation exceeds  3,000m (sec  Figure 1-2). A north-south escarpment separates  the basin into two, hereafter called fa lower and the upper basin The lower basin is  made up of poorly  drained savannah woodland Its climate is warm and humid By contrast, the upper basin is cool, moist, and its relief varied
The rainy  season lasts  about five months  and peaks  during August Major rivers  include the Bare and Akobo, both of which are perennial tributaries  of the While Nile The flow of major rivers closely matches the rainy season, with peak discharge occurring during September
1.3.2   Population
The population of the area is  ethnically  heterogeneous  While agriculture dominates  the economy, semi-nomadic  pastoralism, hunting and gathering are also important Settlers  came to the area during the drought years  of the 1970’s  and 80’s  Most have returned to their locations  of origin due to their susceptibility  to disease and inter-ethnic  strife in the lower basin Refugees  continue to seek  shelter from conflict tn the Sudan Their numbers  reached a high of nearly  400.000 in 1991. The area’s  total population is  currently  about 2.2 million Forecasts  expect it to reach nearly  5 million by  year 2030 Human nutrition is  poor, with about half of all children underweight and stunted Some indigenous  groups  of the lower basin are resistant to niaJana, where tsetse is endemic and outbreaks of yellow fever have occurred
Agricultural holdings  are small Many  farmers  rely  upon animal traction but hand tillage is  also common Most farmers  cultivate cereals, especially  wheat and reft but root crons  are also
important. Recession agriculture is practised in the lower basin
1,4       Previous Studies
Two studies were especially important to this Master Plan The earlier Selkhozpromexport in 1990, covers the lower basin up to the 500 metre contm.T^k . J pet cent of rhe project area. The remainder of ihe basin was studied bv ARDCO which completed its work in 1995 While the boundaries of the rwo stud
*"
ah
-utustKV.
the presence of overlap and gaps mean the join is imperfect.
,eS Can C matc^e^
The work by Selkhozpromcxport has been superseded by change in the project ar - v 
this results from ihe influx of refugees and settlers and an expansion of farmi**’- •Ch-°f habitat is now seriously disturbed and wildlife numbers arc reduced Seilchozp^ Wl|dlife: methodology adhered to Soviet standards that are greatly different from western prachc^T^ *
rAMS-lH.G Barn-Akobn River Buin Inteyraied Development Master Plan
fliaprcr )Baro-Akotio River Bonn
Inlearated Development
Master Ran Protect
Flour* 1*1
STUDY AREA
ETHIOPIAFt Hl CPlA
Baro-Akobo    River    Basin Integrated Development
Master Plan Project
Figure 1-2 TOPOGRAPHY
7~
TAMS ConsdttantB, Inc (U S A ) and ULG Consti tanta Lta (UK.)
Produced   on   October   17,   1996
Sources               TAMS-ULG GIS Filename' elev apr
»*
w
XV
yrVOLUME I
EXECUTJVT. SUMMARY
study's politico-economic view of state farms and central planrung is unrelated to Ethiopia's 
present open market structure
The siudv  by  ARDCO-GEOSERV of the upper basin occupied two years  compared to the eight by  Seikhozpromesport Accordingly, its  depth of data development and analysis  is considerably  less  Enors  of data analysis  have been uncovered; manv  data, especially  those incorporated from the Woody  Biomass  Project, appear to have been wrongly  interpreted Its most serious  defect is  its  paucity  of field information it relied too heavily  upon published reports
1.5     Economic Conditions
Although agriculture supplies  almost 50 per cent of gross  domestic  product, contributions from industry  and services  have been expanding The economic  conditions  of the country, now improving, have been disrupted by  past social unrest and radical changes  ot economic policy
Since 1965, per capita cereal production has  declined by  about 4 kg per year Recurrent drought, poor cultural practices, deforestation, soil erosion, declining soil productivity, and unfavourable policies  have contributed to a general worsening of Ethiopia’s  agriculture While the problem is national tn scope, its effects are felt in the project area forests cover a fraction of their former extent; soil erosion is  serious  and threatens  to worsen; agriculture is  little changed from that described by visitors to Ethiopia two centuries ago.
Manufacturing is dominated by industrial public enterprises that produce light consumer goods such as food, beverages, and textiles Output fell rapidly during the late 1980s. By 1992
policies were introduced to deregulate prices and markets, and state enterprises have since
been put up for sale Within the project area two state coffee plantations and one tea
plantation may eventually be sold
1.6      Critical Issues
Cereal production in Ethiopia is showing a long term decline on a per capita basis Even with 80% of the population engaged in agriculture, Ethiopia is  unable to feed itself with grain Shortfalls are being made up with imports
The study area is frequently seen as an place of great unrealised potential, under populated by Ethiopian standards, and with plenty of land and water. .Also the Russian Study has 
demonstrated that the technical hydropower potential of the Lower Basin alone is in excess of
1,500 MU. The gross potential area available for irrigation amounts to about 600,000 ha,
from which a net area of 483,000 ha can be developed for irrigation
The highlands in the project area are an area of good rainfall with the potential to produce a gram surplus  with improved agricultural practice The lower plain, with more erratic  rainfall is an area of vulnerability  Overall, the area should be capable of feeding the 2.2 million people living within it, but with population expected to grow to 5.3 million people by 2035 there is a
TAMS-HLG Biro-Akobo River Batin Integratetl Development Matter Plan
5
Chapter 1executive summary
need for huge changes to agriculture A massive yield increase is needed for the
remain self sufficrent in food supply
Irrigation reduces the risk for the farmer, but. if this is all it does, it is not cost
Because of the high cost of engineering interventions. tn order for them to be effective, thej
have to be coupled with greatly increased productivity, with higher value, non-grain crops So
one is not lookmg at a situation of providing water to get a subsistence farmer over a
period, one is looking at a change m the entire farming system
Soil erosion is a severe risk to the Master Plan, yet National Policy in factors that contribute
land misuse is weak Land tenure needs to be addressed as an issue to reverse the sd degradation as well as to encourage private investors in imgation commercial farming
These changes  are described within this  Master Plan They  include improved products methods  and engineering solutions  (irrigation, drainage, and flood control) to remove constraints that limit the production of food
1.7      Development Objectives and Constraints
1.7.1 Poliq-
The Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan addresses the development of the natural and human resources of the basin as well as the water resources. However, it is within the context of water resources management that the plan is set
As no specific water resource sector policy has yet been published, the Consultants have based their approach on a certain number of policy positions which can be summarised as follows
•    replacing the command economy with a free market economy
•    enhancing popular participation
•    transforming the existing economic structure
•    prioritising farming
•    strengthening links between agriculture and industry
•    increasing the availability of foreign exchange
This agriatlhire-led industrialisation strategy was deliberately chosen over alternatives such as 
industry-led industrialisation, import substitution or export led , d “ for selecting it was that it would
•   have, as its focus, the bulk of the population,
led n■ndu«nahsat.on The reasons
Ien,at’ “
•   constitute a basts for the task of structural transformation and
•   lay the foundation for self sufficiency
A resource development strategy proposes measures to manage the resn
with Government's goals and policies Developing a strategy also tests S'" acCordanCe
and policies arc realistic The resources development strategies in this studv 7 *■
goaE
o xo Muuy optimise the use
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
Chapter 1VOLUME J
EXECUTIVE summary
of water resources, agricultural land, both irrigated and rain-fed, and other land using systems e g. livestock forestry, wild life and tourism, to achieve the goals
1.7.2 Implementation criteria
The criteria for implementation of individual projects can be summarised as follows
•    Participation of the people and a special role for women
•    Financial and economic viability
•    Environment protection
•    Sustainability
I. 7.3 Planning periods
The planning periods used for the planning process are
Planning Horizon
Development Period
From yean
Toyear
Immediate
1995
2000
Short Term
2000
2015
Medium Tern
2015
2030
| t/Ztimote Development
2030
Onwards
•    Immediate, the next 3 years: the strategy is to formulate and implemenl interventions which can be easily implemented, will produce quick results and become effective within the next few years Many of these interventions need immediate implementation in order to protect the resource base of the basin Failure to implement these interventions will lead to irreversible damage to soil and water resources within the region Also included under this categorv will be recommendations with respect to emergency public health measures, and the gazetting of National Parks and forests
•    Short Term, from the year 2000 to 2015: the strategy is to meet the present goals of government to achieve rapid rural development The proposed interventions will have to be further studied and designed in detail in the immediate period. Under the short terra strategy are included such interventions as small scale irrigation, small town potable water supply and low cost natural resource development
•    Medium Term, from the year 2015 to 2030 the strategy is to meet longer term objectives This will include the implementation of the most economically and financially attractive of the water resource development options The barrier to faster development of these options will be the availability of funding and other resources
•     Llhmoie Development The strategy tn this period is to implement the full, optimal utilisation of the water resources within the basin for irrigated agriculture, water supply and hydropower development Many of the projects identified cannot be implemented until conditions of demand change, but in terms ot providing the blueprint for ultimate water requirements within the basin they are important
TAMS-ULC Baro-Akotw River Balin Integrated Development Master Plan
7
Chapter 1EXECUTIVE summary
1 74 Constraints
. . xf constraint apply to development. There are the constraints, gener^. Tw ° i I Luwed by theraLe of the implementation There is only a finite area
ecographicaL mpo '
MUble for jn M
i  uon. or number of dam sites where hydropown w
be
developed These constraints are considered sector by sector where
maXX possMe number of each land of intervenfon ,s consrdered tn the appraise
development options
The second type of constraint is that imposed by demands on resources exogenous to the sector These constraints are on items like road capacity, availability of trained government staff and budget These will vary over different time periods For the immediate icnn. the existing capacity  is  used. For future periods, allowance is  made for the likely  growth of resources in an expanding economy, and for the increase in irained personnel emerging from Government colleges
£ 7.5 Development Objectives
The most important development objectives for the Master Plan are
•   to arrest the depletion of soil fertility
•   to increase production of subsistence agriculture
•   to increase production from existing cash crops
•   to improve livestock
•   to improve infrastructure in rural towns
•   to encourage agro-industry
•   to generate hydropower
•   to encourage commercial agn culture
Not all of the above objectives carry equal weight .Arresting the depletion of soil fertility is fln absolute priority in that if it is not achieved then virtually all other objectives are put into jeopardy  To increase production from subsistence crops  is  also an objective of greai importance as it impacts on the livelihood of the largest number of people within the basin both with regard to real incomes and also with regard to food security.
Lint \° 3C tn lhC lb°2e °hjtCt,VeS there a wde ra"8e of potential projects within the
basin that could be targeted al one or several of the above The purpose of screening the*
oXXmrsTtLt ’ ,hC |NLT Plan SCenan°S COnsisl of the mosl «*'« Pr0jeCt5
besi pX
bu XepX
thC MKler
e
rXXXXLor^05
PreSCntHl
a ^‘ion °f '
represmts                     3
PDOrnstS
that Government faces is that of a budget Mnstraim*"**™1115              irap°nanl C°
TAMS-ULG Biro-.Uiobo River Bis in Interring 
-----------------------
«rr»iM Oexelopmem Mwicr Pl in
Ch>Pter)executive summary
VOLUME I
RESOURCE BASE
2.1
Introdu
ction
The
majority  of
the
data  collected
lor
the  purpose  of  this  study
came
torn
two  earta  nudies 
of the project basin rhe study  by  Selkhozpromexpon m 1990and that by  ARDCO-GLOSERT , n 1995 These data were reviewed and analysed to identify, locate, and pnontise development options in the project area
A comprehensive geographic information system (GIS) is one of the tools used by the project to integrate different sources of data by the mean of maps and tabulated data The distribution of resources and development plans can be better understood and presented by means of the GJS
Data integrated in the GIS of this  project have also been collected from the Woody  Biomass Inventory  and Strategic  Planning Project and from the analysis  performed during the initial phase of this Master Plan
2.2 Water Resources
2.2-1 Introduction
The purpose of the water resources studies is to establish a reliable set of data from which to assess  water resources  of the Baro-Akobo basin The basic  data used are the monthly  river discharges  at various  gauging stations  in the basin and the monthly  precipitation Monthly flows  data are used to assess  the availability  of water for the purpose of hydropower development and irrigated agriculture. Monthly  rainfall data are used to determine the availability  of water for agriculture (rainfed and irrigated) and also to complement runoff data when these are lacking
A second aspect of the hydrology studies is to estimate the magnitude of the floods, so as to evaluate the potential consequences of flooding and to design protective measures for the
existing and proposed infrastructure the towns and villages, and the agricultural land.
2.2.2   Climatology (Annex 1A)
The meteorological data are generally  collected, processed and provided by  the National Meteorological Service. The hydrometric  data are collected, processed and provided by  the Hydrological Service Some additional data have been collected by  other agencies, including the Food and Agriculture Organisation, the Ministry  of Agriculture, the Institute of Agricultural Research, and others
TAMS-ULG Barn-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Pt in
Chapter 2executive summary
'OLUMFj
ne mean annual rainftU distribution of the region shows considerable spatial variation, as sh
Fteure 2 1, due to the great range tn elevation across the baste Over lowland areas. wtee
elemlion is less than 500m. the mean annual rainfall is as low as 600 mm. while over rhe
at elevations of over 2000m it reaches as high as 3000 mm The rainy period is from May to
October when 85% of the precipitation occurs Maximum rainfail over the southern portion Df
the Baro-Akobo River Basin reaches as high as 300 mm in July and over the northern portion
of the region it is as high as 250 mm. also m July.
2.2.3   Hydrology (A nnex IB)
The major rivers  within the Baro-Akobo catchment are the Baro and its  tributaries, (Birtur. Gcba. Sor), the Alwero, the Gilo with its  tributaries  (Gecheb. Bitun. Beg) and the Akobo with its tributary Kashu The general direction of the rivers is from the cast to the west. The rivers originate in the highlands (2000-3500m) situated in the east of the area and fall to the Gambtli plain (450m) in the west All the major rivers  are gauged except the Akobo flowing at the border with Sudan and all its tributaries
The catchment areas and mean flows in the main rivers of the basin are summarised in Table 2.1
Table 2.1 Summary' of surface water resources
Basin
Catchment area
(km )
1
Mean annual runoff (M AR)
(Mcm/vear)
Baro
30,004
12,784
Akobo Upper
6,036
1,774
Akobo. Lower
7,209
2,118
j
Gilo
12.815
3.224                     ____ -
Alwero
8,019
1,375
Serkole
7,702
1.320
Tirmatid
2,690
419
Pibor
1,435
224
Total
75,910
23,237
Unfortunately  the data collection is  not very  consistent Whilst the flow at Gambela is available from 1906, all others  stattons  have been recorded relatively  recently. Overall the
2
records of only 14 gauging stations w ere used for the entire basm of 76,000 km .
2.2.4  Flood Studies (Annex IQ
The magnitude and frequency of floods in the rivers of the project area have been evaluated ifl order  jo  provide  data  for  the  outline  design  of  spillways  for  hydropower  and  irrigation  da"15 and of flood protection works for towns and villages, especially in the Gambela Plain 2.2.5   (iround Waler (Annex ID)
The Baro-Akobo Aasm has two basic types of aquifer One is associated with fracture and ernsh zones in the Basement Complex rocks, and the other, the Pliocene to Quatcrnari alluMum. an unconsolidated sedimentary- porous medium
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Birin liitenrated Development Master Plan
10
Cli*P,er3Baro-Akobo River Basin
Integrated Development
Master Plan Project
Figure 2-1
rainfall distribution
and rainfall station
NETWORK
2000
I
A
•J
- %■ Vi
w
75D
Lle’vanrxi
i> SCOrn
SOG-IODOm
1D0Q IMJOrn
1500.2000
;COG-75DOfr. ZSOT^UCOm 3000  ISDQm
□v) Werwia Na — I so hy tri (mm/yrt
Rlwr
« MfM«xoloQ»n4J Station
1  AMS  Consultants,  Inc  (USA)  and ULG Consultants Ltd (U K )
For the Mmtstry of Water Resources of the Government of Ethiopia
Produced on: July 20. 1996 Sources               TAMS-ULG MoWR GIS Filename, rainfall apr
B-
14'aexecutive summary
VOLUME 1
|„ the Basement Complex  aquifer the mfonnation collected tnthcates  produelton rates  W be Lterallv  less  than 10 litres  per second (Vs). The allnvmm consuntttng the aquifers  m the Gambela Plain is usually fine sand to silt. Water yields from wdla constructed in these aqmfers range from about 0 01 Vs to I 0 Vs Static water levels of wells in these aqutfers usually vary from ground surface to about 7 Ometres below ground surface
Groundwater  is  reported  to  occur  in  rocks  throughout  the  entire  Baro-Akobo  Basin  and  to move generalh from east io west across the project area
2.2.6  Reservoir Operations (Annex IE)
Based on the time senes  of monthly  flows, reservoir operation studies  were performed to determine the benefits  denved from the implementation of reservoirs  built for the regulation of over flows, either to be used for imgation or to generate electricity at power plants
The reservoir operation studies demonstrate that
•         The  storage  dams  under  consideration  for  irrigation  development  can  provide  adequate irrigation  water  per  potential  area  of  over  330,000  ha  in  the  Gambela  Plain  This  area can  be  further  increased  if  the  storages  at  the  hydropower  dam  sites  are  taken  into consideration
•          A   very   significant   hydropower   potential   exists   in   the   basin   with   realistic   installed capacity of over 1,500 MWr
22 7 Sedimentation (Annex IF)
The principal objective of the sedimentation studies is to estimate the amount of sediment that will enter and accumulate in the reservoirs  planned for the Baro-Akobo basin Based on the best estimate of the transported sediment, the reservoir dead storage was selected to be large enough to allow the accumulation of 50 years of sediment
2.3 Natural Resources and Agriculture
23.2     Introduction
The purpose of the natural resources studies was to establish a reliable set of data from which
to assess the natural resources of the Baro-Akobo basin. The geology, mineral resources 
forests and soils were all reviewed Studies were also carried oui to assess the animal
resources; wildlife, bees, fish and livestock The human enterprises that are associated with the natural resources - agriculture, tourism and renewable energy' - were also considered
2.3.2    Land Evaluation (Annex 2A)
The land evaluation performed  for  this  study  is  based upon data from various sources These data indicate that about 15% of the total project area is presently (1996) in a critical condition
TAMS-ULG BaroAkobo River Bmin hi I c grated Development Master Plan
12
Chapter 2executive summary
volume |
In  other  words,  weredas  that  are  presently  indicated  as  having  a  critical  population  capacity require urgent soil conservation measures if their current land use intensity is to be maintained
2.3.3 Soils and Soil Conservation (Annex 2B)
Erosion control and soil conservation have been judged to be of primary  importance when considering the Population Support Capacity in the project area The protection of the natural resources base of the basin is therefore an essential requirement for the conservation of the soils and consequently the population support capacity of the project area
2.3.4    Geology (Annex 2C)
fhe major landforms from east to west across the project area are as follows
•   a high mountainous zone (2,400 to 3,000 m above sea level) of Tertiary basalt capped in places by Quaternary volcanic rocks,
•   a high plateau sector (1.300 to 2,400 masl) of basalts and granites,
•    a strip of lowland ranges, the Masongo Ranges (800 to 1,400 masl) which are crystalline basement complex rocks.
•     a  lowland  area,  formed  and  underlain  by  unconsolidated  and  undifferentiated  Plio- Quatemary  matenal  (Gambela  Alluvium)  that  grades  westward  from  about  495  masl  at Gambela to 400 masl at the Ethiopia-Sudan border
2.3.5     Mineral Resources (Annex 2D)
The Baro-Akobo basin contains many mineral occurrences. Gold is by far the most important metallic mineral, but platinum and iron ore are also significant Mining policy is determined by the Ministry of Mines and Energy The development of mining operations is carried out by the Ethiopian Mineral Resources Development Corporation, an autonomous government agency The government actively encourages foreign investment in mining operations.
The Mineral Map at 1 250,000 scale accompanying the ARDCO-GEOSERV report provides an adequate inventory of mineral resources in the basin The report describes the mineral occurrences in detail
2.3.6   Forestry (Annex 2E)
The project area contains about 2 2 million ha of different types of forests Although seriously degraded, the remaining stands  are estimated to constitute more than half of Ethiopia's remaining forests Nonetheless, the situation of the remaining forest resource is critical losses by exploitation and uncontrolled burning exceeds the rate of forest re-growth. Neglected and exposed, the remaining stands are threatened and could disappear with many unanticipated consequences  Soil erosion will increase, water quality  and supply  will lessen, sediment discharge will increase, agricultural productivity will diminish
lAMS-lLG Baro-Akobo River Sarin Integrated Development Master Plan
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Chapter 2executive summary
VOLUME 1
2.3.7    Wildlife (Annex 2 F)
The diversity  and number of wildlife in the project area have changed dramatically  in recent decades  Population and agricultural expansion, government policies  and civil unrest are largely responsible
Wildlife habitat could be said to include the entire project area L arge mammals concentrate in the savannahs  of the lower basin Ln that area lies  the Gambela National Park, which is bounded by  two controlled hunting areas  Some reports  also mention a third controlled hunting area near Mizan Tcferi Migratory  animals, birds, and aquatic  life occur al different densities  and times  according to the seasonal hydrology  of the basin A general impression is one of good habitat condition This  is  not reflected, however in the density  or variety  of wildlife
2.3.8   Tourism (Annex 2G)
The attractions  in the project area are limited to eco-tourism that only  tempts  a certain category  of mainly  young people. Add to this  the limited accommodation facilities, and the project area is no match for the competition from many East African tourist destinations
2.3.9    Apiculture (Annex 2 Hl
The exploitation of bees  provides  a major, fully  sustainable income source for some people living in the project area Indeed, the area supports  a high level of beekeeping and honey hunting, with perhaps  one of the highest concentrations  of farmers  exploiting bees  found in
.Africa This indicates that there are excellent resources of bees and food plants for bees.
It is estimated that the total production for the project area amounts to 6,240 tonnes of honey and beeswax  per annum These estimates  are far less  than might have been anticipated from other sources  of current national statistics  which give levels  of 25,000 - 50.000 tonnes  for honey and 7.500 tonnes for beeswax.
2.3.10  Agriculture (Annex 2 I)
Agriculture is  the main activity  of the population and the centrepiece of the Government's development strategy  The Master Plan examines  the integration of agroebmatic  and soil data to estimate cropping potential for different locations and conditions (see Figure 2.2)
On the Gambela plain below 500 masl, the available data show that about six  years  in ten, dependable rainfall is  at least four months  and is  therefore adequate to support one good yielding crop per year for most annual crops.
Above about 1,000 masl the dependable growing season for annual crops  is  very reliable and failures  would occur only  about one year in twenty, and even longer than that above 2.000 masl In an average season and better, a second rainfed crop should yield well during a dependable growing season of 7 or more months  This  factor alone offers  the scope for an extension initiative with a target of increasing crop production by at leasi 50 percent
TAMS-ULG BaroAkobo River Basin Inicgrated Development Matter Plan
14
Chapter 21
Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development
Master Plan Project
Figure 2-2
LAND CAPACITY
and
FARMING SYSTEMS
TAMS Cori suit ante, Inc. (U SA) and
ULG Consultant* Ltd (U.K )
For the Ministry of Waler Resources,
of the Government of Ethiopia
Produced on. October 17.1996
Sources:          Modified from Soil and Suitability Maps: MoA (1987) GlS Filename leap apr
35*executive summary
V OLUME I
The total cultivated crop area in the Baro-Akobo basin is  ar least 554,000 ha, 97 percent of which lies in the upper basin The assumption is that most of this is in rhe highland zone and reflects the high density of arable farmers on the land above aboui 1,800m
The rate of increase in areas of pulses and oilseeds has been much greater than that of cereals However, the statistics also imply a real fall in the average level of nutrition because the rate of increase  in  cropped  area  has  averaged  2  percent  compared  with  0  9  percent  in  production, indicating a fall in productivity of the land overall
There is  a large potential for irrigated agriculture in the Gambcla Plain, amounting to a gross area of about 1 1 million ha Excluding the western portion subject to persistent flooding, the potential has been assessed as about 379,900 ha gross from which a net area about 34],910 ha is potentially available for irrigated agriculture
23. U RenewaMe Energy (Annex 2 J)
The Baro-Akobo basin has  large reserves  of renewable energy  resources, which include biomass, hydropower, geothermal, wind and solar energy' resources. Biomass  is  by  far the most widely  used renewable resource, accounting for 99% of the energy  supply  and is  used primarily  for cooking in households  Available wood fuels, which consist of fuel wood and twigs, amount to 251 million tonnes  in terms  of standing stocks  and 12 million tonnes  of annually sustainable yield
23.12 Fisheries (Annex 2 K)
In the project area most fishing is carried out on the Baro river around Gambela in the western part of the country  on a subsistence basis  using traditional equipment There is  little fishing in the upper catchment
%
Approximately  100 species  of fish have been identified However, some 80% of the fish caught is  Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus), although Nile perch (Lafes nitoticus) is  caught in large quantities in lakes and rivers outside the project area
There  is  considerable  potential  for  fish  farming  in  the  reservoirs  proposed  for  hydropower generation or irrigation
2.3.13 Livestock (Annex 2 L)
The Basin contains  about 1.2 million cattle, 0 4 million sheep. 0.24 million goats, 0.09m equines  and I 1 m chickens. Cartie are of primary  importance, representing about 90% of the total livestock  units  In the Upper Basin, cattle are kept not only  for draught but also for milk, a capital reserve, a source of cash, and cultural purposes such as status and brideprice
in the Gambda Plain, where about 15% of the cattle of the Basin arc found, cattle arc not used for draught but for milk  and subsistence They  are managed on a migratory  system in response to the availability of grazing and water in the Plain
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
Chapter 2EXECUTIVE SUMM ARY
„ n«in feed resources are the main constraint to livestock production Tn L while annual proton of grazing and browse are more rhao ad^,, *
seasonal distribution of this feed is a constraint 2.4 Human Resources and Infrastructure
2.4J Introduction
V0LVMj|
This section deals with human resources and infrastructural development in the Basin The information in the human resources database is of variable quality, making it necessary  to supplement missing information by estimates
2.4.2 Population (Annex 3A)
In 1993, the number ofhouseholds was about 418,000 in rural areas and 41,000 in urban areas The lower basin has relatively very low densities (9% of the population living on about 42% of the territory) The central part of the upper basin, which accommodates 60% of the population living within the Project .Area, has the highest density with 55 people per km2
The population of the Project Area, which is estimated to be 2.2 million people in 1995. will increase towards 5.3 million in 2035 and is expected to have the following characteristics
average growth rate of 2 2% per year
average density of 70 inhabitants per km‘
urbanisation rale of 15%
age structure 44% under 15 years and 2.5% over 65 years in rural areas, in urban areas. 37% and 2.2% respectively
dependency ratio 0 81 in rural areas and 0.6 in urban areas
sex ratio 99 in rural areas and 105 in urban areas
2.4.3 Socio-eth itic groups analysis (A nnex 3B)
Genera) social trends have been observed:
•        a greater homogenisation of peoples as a result of cash crop cultivation and trade incentives
•         a greater synthesuation of activities amongst sedentary agriculturalists and shifting subsistence cultivators and
ownership of cattle, cither for ploughing and manuring, or subsistence, as the main marker or differential of wealth between rich and poor
General trends in commercial and agro-econormc development across the basin have beef- discerned:                                                                             r
. A move by small farmers in the highlands to expand and consolidate agricultural holding to improve food security
.       A desire to diversify cash sources by growing more cash crops
.       A desire to acquire cattle, sheep. goats Or chickens (even ^ngst seden'^
agriculturalists in the lowlands) to ensure food secunty and develop a further cash so”*'
TAMS-Ul.G Baro-Akobo Rner Haun
MaaerFUn
CMP*''
nEXECUTIVE SUMMARY
VOLUME 1
While  acquisition  of  new  land  is  not  perceived  io  he  an  issue  by  most  forest  dwellers,  it  is  a
t  eal  problem  in  the  agro-ecological  zones  of  open  woodland  and  farmland  which  suffer from  the  stresses  of  overpopulation  and  overgrazing  Shifting  cultivators  living  in  the  highly forested  regions  continue  to  slash  and  bum  new  tracts  of  land  according  io  the  traditional
°clc  of  cultivation  and  fallow  However,  it  seems  essential  to  address  the  conflict  between forest  conservation  and  agricultural  expansion  now,  before  undue  encroachment  takes  place and the wealth of forest is destroyed
Subsistence agriculture remains  the norm in most communities, Ihough more and more cash crops  are being cultivated to meet the increasing demand for consumer goods  Issues  of food security, land tenure and wealth creation (mainly  through the acquisition of cattle) remain the prime concerns of small landholders However, there is an awareness of the need for fertilisers and improved seeds  m most areas, combined with a willingness  to pay  Improved extension using video and other media, newly  designed storage facilities  and more specific  monitoring of new seed varieties  will in the long run contribute to greater farmer confidence and investment in the sector
2.4.4 Economic Infrastructures (Annex JO
Roads
The information on the current road network  obtained from the Ethiopian Roads  Authority, available mapping and field observations  reveals  that the network  of trunk  roads  and major link  roads  in the Project Area comprises  a mixture of all weather roads  with long stretches  of unsurfaced roads  that are serviceable only  in dry  weather The trunk  roads  are complemented by a senes of major link, or secondary, roads Not all of these road links are usable during the rainy season and some require four-wheel drive vehicles even during dry months
Traffic  density, as  recorded by  the Ethiopian Road Authority, which maintains  several permanent traffic  count stations  within the Project .Area, is  light, a reflection of the rather low level of economic activity within the Project Area
Air Transport
There are 6 operational airports in the Baro-Akobo Basin Gambela is the largest and is the only airport with a paved runway  and navigation aids  Gambela handles  about 5.000 passenger arrivals  and departures  per year, while the other five handle 15,000 between them The airports are operated by the Civil Aviation Authority and the flights by Ethiopian Airlines
Power
The Interconnected System (TCS) does not extend to the Project Area and most towns in the basin are served by small diesel or hydroelectric plants, with a combined total installed caoacitv 
of9MW
2.4.5 Human health (Annex 3 D)
J
In recent years  health policy  changes  have affected the way  that health services  are administered to the public  These policies  are intended to cause an increase in health service availability  The implementation of the Master Plan, particularly  those aspects  that relate to reservoirs, irrigation schemes, and canals, will increase the frequency of some tropical
TAMS-LXG Ba
m-Akobo River Batin Integrated Ifevelupment Master Plan
18
Chapter 2executive summary
diseases On the other hand, increased water availability and quality will reduce d‘
V °LWlj
relate to sanitation and cleanliness The project can make positive contributions to^T the project area by assisting the availability of health services
TAMS-VLG Baro-AkotM) River Batin Integriteil Development Master Pion
19EXECUTIVE summary
VOLUME I
SUMMARY OF DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
3.1 Introduction
The previous  sections  of this  Executive Summary  describe the development objectives  of the Master Plan and its  resource base This  section describes  how the resource base will be developed in order to fulfil (hose objectives, followed by a project by project summary of the resulting environmental impacts  and the corresponding necessary  mitigation measures Development opportunities  can be grouped into three broad categories: water resources, natural resources and agriculture, and rural infrastructure
3.2 Waler resources projects
3.2.1 Introduction
Waler resources  projects  and related developments  include dams  and reservoirs  for hydropower and irrigation, hydropower generation plants  and transmission lines, large-scale irrigation, and flood protection
A schematic representation of existing and potential dams is given in Figure 3-1 Six projects survived economic  and financial screening: three hydroelectric  and three irrigation projects  In addition. Abobo Dam. designed by  Selkhozpromexport for irrigation, was  completed in the lower basin during 1996, bringing the total number of potential irrigation developments  to four
3.2 2 //vrfro^ 7H’rr pl nngx J J)
<
The studies  have indicated that the Baro-Akobo basin presents  particularly  favourable conditions for hydropower development, small, medium and large .All the projects identified in previous planning studies of the basin, as shown in Figure 3-2, were reviewed. screened and ranked
The large and medium size projects are too large for the projected electricity demands within the basin and must be justified within the context of the Interconnected System Several of the medium and large scale hydropower projects appear to be more attractive than some of the candidate projects under consideration by EELPA in their generation expansion plan
The projects that are considered in the Master Planning arc summarised below
tams-ulg
Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
20
Chapter 3executive summary
r
METTI
KETTO KVNI
§  Existing  Dam
4 Potential Dan
• Hydrometric Statiota
Birbir-A
Sahl-
Guda
Geba-R
Guniero GUMERO
Gcbo-A
9
BARO
Euro
GENJ1
-+
BARO
Chiru
CHIRl
SO BAT        ALWERO
al^ero
Abobo
BITES’*1 BEG WUHA
16 | Oil
GILO
BEKO
AC1IEB
Beto
KASHV
AKOBO
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo Rher Basin Integrated
»c-raiea Ooclopment Master Plan
21
Ch*P|cf———n
Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development
Master Plan Project
Figure 3-2 DAM SITES
A r
Road Standard!
* * Paved Road
------- All Matter Road
——    Dry    Matter    Rood
------ Track
UrtctaaaCwd
-------- Propoaod Aecm Road to Dam Ste
I i WtradaNo
— Rlwr
4 Dam Site
. Town
TAMS  Consultants.  Inc.  (U.S.A)  and
□LG Corwutants Lid (U.K.)
Foe the Ministry erf Water Resources
of the Government of Ethiopia
Produced on October 17, 1996
Sources:               TAMS-ULG ARDCO/Soyuz; Topo (1 250 000) CIS Filename: ternsde.apr
IT!
s’executive summary
VOLUME I
q heMntonK ,ar®c P °jec,s' that is  with u1stalled “pacilies  greater than 150 MW, in terms 
r
ofurit energy and capacity cost is presented in Table 3 I
Table 3.1 Ranking of Large Size Hydropower Projects
Project
Installed capacity
(MW)
Cost per kWh
(USS)
Cost per kW
(USS)
D  l U l “    **
a        • ■  ___ __ ___ Geba A 1&2
210
0036
1,331
171
0.038
1,391
170
0.038
1.386
Rirhiir A& R
508
0.05
1.918
Birbir R
422
0073
2.839
Medium Scale Projects
A  second  ranking,  presented  m  Table  3.2,  was  performed  on  medium  scale  hydropower  in  the range   of   50   MW   to   150   MW   Such   projects   are   still   too   large   for   the   Baro-Akobo   basin demands   and   would   therefore   be   justified   in   the   context   of   the   Interconnected   System   The implementation   of   medium   size   hydropower   projects   is   one   of   the   expansion   strategies   of EELPA  and  is  appropriate  where  capital  investments  are  a  constraint  and  where  energy  export is  not  a  consideration  For  ranking  purposes  it  has  been  assumed  that  the  medium  size  projects would   be   tied   into   the   ICS   at   one   of   the   three   planned   132-kV   connections,   eg.,   Ghimbi, Melo or Mizan
Table 3.2 Ranking of Medium Size Hydropower Projects
Project
Installed capacity'
(MW)
Cost per kWh
(USS)
Cost per kW
(USS)
L Kashu
60
0 04
1.465
Geba A 1
105
0.045
1.686
Birbir A
95
0.045
1.691
Sor A&R
65
0 054
2,118
.Smu/1 Scale Projects
A  third  ranking  was  performed  for  smaller  project  (up  io  an  installed  capacity  of  50  MW),  as shown   in   Table   3.3.   For   this   ranking,   the   same   criterion   was   used,   with   the   unit   costs including  the  cost  of  the  transmission  system  to  the  nearest  line  In  the  case  of  Kashu,  the expected   connection   point   would   be   the   planned   132-kV   ICS   connection   in   Mizan   For
umero,   Sor   and   Baro   1,   this   connection   would   be   the   existing   66-kV   Crambe   I   a-Gore transmission line
TAMS-ueq Bam-Akobo
River Basin Lniegraied Development Master Plan
23
Chapter 3executive summary
Table 3.3 ^nk,n^
of Sma11 SiW H  dro
y    Powcr Projcc,s
Project
Gumero 1 2&3 Rurn 1
Installed capacity
(MW)
Cost per kWh
(USS)
Cost per kv, !—1VSS)
50
0 049
1.833 ^-
40
0.05
1,908
Gumero 1&2              1        ——-----------------
0 051
1.923
Staged Projects
Many of the projects are suitable for staged construction, so that individual stages may faij • the small or medium category while the combined project may be medium or large
System operation
If more than one hydropower scheme is constructed on the same river the separate scheme!
can be operated as a system with a resultant increase in the firm energy, as described in senior
4 1 below
Comparison with EELPA Projects
There is  a proposal to connect both the large and medium scale projects  to the ICS and therefore they  should be compared with other candidate projects  on a nation-wide basis EELPA does not appear to have established a long-term marginal cost of energy and power therefore as a preliminary approach, these projects have been compared on the basis of cost per kW of installed capacity This is. of course, an approximate method of comparison since the plant factors vary to some degree from project to project
The average discounted cost of EELPA projects  at January  1996 price levels, has  beer estimated to be $2,406 per kW of installed capacity Table 3.4 compares the better project from the Baro-Akobo basin with those projects  that alreadv  appear in EELPA's  expansion plan
1 able 3.4 Comparison with Projects in other Basins
Project
Baro-Akobo Basin Projects
Baro-A I&2_____________
Geba-A
1&2
Birbir A &R_____________ Birbir-R
i Other basins tn Ethiopia
| Gilgel Gibe
______
Aleltu East]_____________ 1 Aleltu West_____________ 1 Halele-Warcbesa_________ j Chemoga-Yeda I &n
Installed capacity (MW)
210 171 508 422
180 186
165
3J2 630
Unit Cost (USS/kW
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin integrated Development Master Plan
24
-EXECUTIVE summary
VOLUME 1
'dcriiig this preliminary comparison it is therefore clear that candidate projects in the
f ° Akobo basin appear to be attractive, and the level of confidence in the return of these
facets should be increased by carrying the study to the next level of pre-feasibility
frfivir&nmcnt Action Pion
Most of the adverse environmental impacts  of hydropower development occur during construction and the initial 4 to 7 years  of reservoir operation Most of these, such as sediment production, reduction of fisheries, and water quality  degradation, can be successfully  mitigated Annex  4. Environment, describes  the mitigation measures  and their costs
Hydroelectric  development will increase the risk  of water-related disease This  problem recurs  through each of the Master Plan water resource projects  In general, however, the upland climate of the reservoirs  is  only  marginally  suitable for many  of the same disease vectors  that populate the lower Master Plan area In addition, hydroelectricity does  not bnng large numbers  of people into the same intimacy  of contact with disease habitat as  does  irrigation Nonetheless, there is  potential within the option to increase the incidence of malana and Onchocerciasis  Of the different reservoirs, Baro, because of the large, swamp-like shoals it would produce, poses the greatest risk
Reservoirs  during their dry-season drawdown period may  provide recessional grazing for large numbers  of livestock  Unless  animal numbers  are controlled, vegetation destruction and starvation could cause increases  of disease and death among wildlife and livestock  It is  a subject that requires  control. Grazing fees, for example, could contribute to the local economy
3.2.3 Large-scale irrigation (Annex 1H)
In addition to Abobo irrigated area designed by Selkhozpromexpon, the Master Plan has 
shortlisted three irrigation projects Itang, Dumbong, and Gtlo-2 each located in the lower basin The size of irrigated area ranges from 15,000 ha (Dumbong) to 50,000 ha (Itang) Field
delivery at the time of writing the interim report was to be by gravity, other forms of gravity,
sprinkler, and drip are now under consideration Some irrigated areas require flood protection
and pumps will be needed for drainage Groundwater yields are insufficient for irrigation
Agricultural inputs include seeds, fertiliser, insecticides and pesticides Tillage will be by 
draught animal The majority of farm labour will be made up of households from outside the
lower basin
Each of the proposed irrigated areas  lies  partly  within Gambela National Park, Abobo lies wholly  within the park  The responsibility  for park  administration was  transferred to the region in August 1996
The studies  have indicated a potential net irrigation area in the Gambela plain amounting to about 480,000 ha This  excludes  the areas  in the western portion of plain subject to persistent flooding and waterlogging A total of 14 large irrigation projects  were formulated to cover lhe available 480.000 ha (see Figure 3-3) They  were all costed and ranked and economic analysis was performed for several representative projects for a range of agricultural scenarios.
^S-L'£( BjroAkobo River Basin Inicjjralcd Development Master Plan
r
Chapicr 3
25«ETHIOPIA
Baro-Akobo    River    Basin
Integrated Development
Master Plan Project
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GISF^ TAMS-uLG; ARDCQ/Soyur; Topo( 1:250 DOO) dam site apr
11✓executive summary
VOLUME I
Th  ’  studies  indicated  that  completion  at  the  ongoing  Alwero  Abobo  dam  project  should  be
T
ven     first   priority   Thereafter   three   other   projects   were   selected   for   consideration   in   the
Master Plarming These are
j Haro River, Right Bank using gravity feed from Itang Dam Upstream Alwero Project, fed by gravity from Dubong Dam
3 Gilo 2 Right Bank fed by gravity from Cnlo 2 Dam
Environment Action Plan
Net Area (ha>
50.900 15,000
47,000
Each irrigation scheme depends  upon a separate reservoir. These are shallower than those recommended for hydropower and create extensive shoals  The insect habitat they  provide would be ideal for malarial mosquitoes. During the dry  season they  will attract large numbers  of wildlife and livestock, and habitat damage and animal starvation could occur unless animal populations are controlled
Because the projects bring large numbers of people into intimate contact with moist
soil and favourable habitats for disease vectors, human health will be seriously affected
Deaths from malaria and other illnesses should be expected Schistosomiasis,
Onchocerciasis, yellow fever, and trypanosomiasis are believed endemic to the lower
basin, although several of these appear to have incomplete bonds in their cycle of
alternate hosts Trypanosomiasis is present in both Gambian and Rhodesian forms of
the disease Potential mitigations include diagnostic health centres, mosquito nets, and
treatment
Parts  of proposed irrigation sites  were the locations  of resettlements  during the previous  government People dislocated by  drought came into conflict with the indigenous  population Unless  precautions  are taken, implementation of the projects risks reintroducing ethnic stress
The indigenous people of the area are not sophisticated farmers Many arc pastoralists, others rely upon the planting stick Both groups will incur problems during project inception. Rivalries between ethnic groups may introduce inequities into the distribution of water some farmers will over-irrigate; others will under-irrigate Waterlogging, soil salinity and soil sodicity pose problems to the area Leached nutrients present risks to downstream water users
All these factors have to be studied in detail as part of the feasibility studies
Mnnex/Q
'eve! jIn8a°*1he lower tiasin resuJts backwater upstream of major confluences on nearly C4 Pacitv t rainfa11 in cx^ess of soil infiltration capacity, and discharge in excess of channel
- Lands above 450m altitude appear to be well drained Low-lying areas, on the orheT ——-—-             _ _ —------------------------------------------------- ——•— -------------------
aro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
Chapter 3EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
hand, experience between two and four months of flooding between June
v 0 LVMe !
Flood  protection  dykes  are  proposed  along  two  irrigated  areas.  Gilo-2  and  It^  ^°Ven’5r
the nght bank of the Baro River in the vicinity of Gambela Among its improved security of investment and human health
Environment Action Plan
alop.
er) efits wj[]
Relocation  of  some  households  in  Gambela  will  be  required,  but  this  is  mi serious is the loss of wetland habitat that will result from this investment °P e
_   ,   modoskI   for   Ganbeh   should   be   constructed   tn   umson   with   flood   torn,   „ ?            . « nsk do not receive additional households Catchment protect™ tsata,
,hl ' X he lontX conuol of flood risk  ar Gambela The behav.ourof.be mt, X X of levees  will requite monttoring. pantcularly  if upstream dams  affect th. dZrge and sediment concentration of the Baro and other nvers
3.3 Natural resources and agriculture
Natural  resource  projects  include  investments  in  small-holder  agriculture,  soil  conservation livestock, fisheries, forestry, apiculture, wildlife, tourism, and mineral resources extraction
3.3.I Small-holder agriculture (Annex 21)
Introduction
The great majority of the basin’s food supply is provided at present by rainfed agriculture which at present occupies a total area of some 610,000ha The increase in food production h means  of the improvement and extension of rainfed agriculture in the project area is  of fundamental importance and has been shown in these studies to be attractive economical!- with internal rates of return in excess of 33 6% (see Vol IL Chapter 5, Section 5.3 1) The allocation of resources to this sector is thus justified economically and will cover the food needs of the area while creating a tradable surplus, thus increasing rural cash income. The two components of the project comprise
•    extension of the cultivated area and
•    improvement of fanning techniques
Extension
lMd°canaM? l^yst^ns. population support capacity of the land, current land
a^cXre      amoun!      I      K      ->,?Ca’Cd        ,he        t0,a]         P°tcntiaJ        of        l^d        sul,ablc        for
agnculture amounts to about 2 8 million hectares, most of which is situated in the Highlands
The recommended development project for rainfed agriculture starts from the existing area about 610,000 ha and builds up to just over 14 million ha over the 35 year planning honzo that is to about half the potential area of suitable land, an overall increase of over 200% average increase thus amounts to a little under 23.000 ha per year, which is 
realistic W’hen fully des eloped the main crops will consist of maize, sorghum, teff. PulscS coffee, which together will account for over 90% of the developed area
TAMS-liLG Baro-Akobo River Basin Inlegrated Development Master Plan
CW(cr 5VOLUME I
to farming techniques, which include the more widespread use of fertilisers
The impro*cniei1ts ro rain^ ^ ag
e
nculture ^al have been proposed are realistic and can not only 
\ lhe food demands of the population but can produce a surplus for expon There will be
hiatal increase in food production from an annual production of 514,000 tonnes at preseni to
j 9 million tonnes in 2035
It is  proposed to improve small-holder agriculture through better research, extension, and training, improved produce processing and marketing, improved agricultural credit, better veterinary  care, improved coffee production, and small-scale irrigation. Extension, delivering an effective agri cultural message to fanners, is  a key  element of the project Research to provide a better understanding of the complexities of upland agriculture is also important
Environment Action Plan
Soil conservation is  recommended as  an important component of upland agriculture. One of its  activities  is  the expansion of coffee production on lands  unsuitable or marginally  suitable for annual crops  This  could result in the introduction of large quantities  of fermentation effluent into streams  Although this  can be mitigated, the costs should be borne by those investing in coffee cleaning and coffee growing
Up2 Soil conservation (Annex 2B)
Soil conservation is recommended as an essential element of projects in small-holder
agriculture,    forestry,    and    livestock    Many    soil    landscapes    within    the    project    area    are susceptible to soil erosion Their degradation is a serious handicap to the welfare of the nation.
C'I
i conservation will involve matching land use to land capacity, implementing soil conservation practices such as bunds and grass strips, and improving agronomic practices such
^ill d USC °^€tter sec^s an^ intercropping Significantly, an expansion of coffee production O much to conserve marginal snilc lands thai are unsuitable for coffee will be allocated
(Annex 2L)
Chapter 35
executive summary
Proposed investments in livestock have the objective of improving animal prod
draught power, and animal health It will do this by increasing food resources, water^
veterinary care, and extension The underlying concept is to improve livestock quality^'*5 expanding livestock numbers and over-grazing.
Environment Action Plan
Investment   in   livestock   is   proposed   as   crucial   to   an   expansion   of   aerie   I Controlled,  it  offers  many  advantages,  uncontrolled,  overgrazing  could  destroy  m  " of the project's benefits Despite the best intentions, reservoirs will draw larae numb* of livestock and wildlife during the dry season Damage to vegetation will occur unless their numbers are controlled Fences, rotational or delayed grazing, and grazing fees are all means of controlling livestock and generating income
There are few alternatives to livestock production as it is a suitable land use for non- agricultural terrain Wildlife ranching is becoming increasingly attractive in some pans of Africa, but this requires a healthy, well-developed tourist or meat export industry
3.3.4 Fisheries (Annex 2K)
The development of fisheries in the area requires improvements in monitoring the numbers and characteristics of caught fish Using that knowledge, managers will improve their ability to control the fish harvest to within sustainable limits Improved tackle will increase the basic catch, better refrigeration and marketing are also important
Environment Action Plan
Improved equipment is seen as a means of increasing the catch Present reservoirs ard dams were conceived without fish ladders or hatchery programmes The activity is small scale and presents  little opportunity  for overfishing The component has  no alternative and is worthy of support
3.3. S Forestry (Annex 2E)
Forests arc a key component of the project area's environment. It is proposed to improve knowledge of the areas forests by delimiting and inventorying natural stands It is proposed to rehabilitate the gum Arabic belt and existing industrial plantations, and to establish new fuelwood and industrial plantations on abandoned farmlands
Forestry is an under-developed, under-managed sector of Ethiopia's economy b recommended that investment be made in baseline data collection, gum-belt rehabilitation, plantation development, and training Soil conservation, reviewed here as part of small-ho ^
1
agriculture, also proposes forest and catchment protection as one of its activities Signified a moratorium on felling by eight sawmills in the project area is also called for
TA.MS-IILG Bam-Akobo River Basin Integrated Destlopment Master HancrMMARY
volume 1
ATiP/rq/t/yrr/r/            Plan
Most of the adverse environmental imoarrs >nnk . L. associated with logging Yet these impacts J 
rOads
miugations    proposed    in    Annex    4.    Environment    of    this    r*?    by      obw™™g    the
to    forestry    It    represents    a    wise    use
o much
f         of     (f)      "P°n     Tbere      is    no    alternative
an    alternative    to    Umber    felling    in    other    areas    SawS    1
upstream of dams proposed for construction ' CouJd easily be instated J J. 6 4piculture (Annex 2H)
ReserVoir       clearing    js
Apiculture is  an important economic  activity  in the project area It is  proposed that beekeeping be strengthened by  providing assistance to honey  hunters, to expose them to the advantages  of simple yet meaningful principles  of bee keeping; to existing beekeepers, to help them improve their practices  and marketing, and to groups  of beekeepers, to help them market their honey and wax
Environment Action Plan
The recommendations  include ways  of producing safe (low fire risk) smoke, to better manage traditional hives, and suggest means  of strengthening marketing links  lo improve household revenues  Apiculture in natural forests  poses  a slight fire risk, but the component proposes effective means for its control.
li 7 midlife (Annex 2F)
Wildlife could play  an important role in developing the economy  of the project area as, indeed, they  have done in many  parts  of Africa. Yet, recent sightings  of large mammals  in the project area are not as  plentiful as  they  once were II is  recommended that to improve technical knowledge of wildlife field censuses, studies, and research is  conducted to define protected areas, migration corridors, and potential safari hunting areas. This  knowledge will help government to redefine an effective policy  towards  wildlife. The proposals  will seek  to ensure vvildlite opportunities  that respond io people s  needs, to better control predations  on wildlife by  refugees  and poachers, and to establish effective, long-term protection of wildlife resources in rkarL-o
Government policy on wildlife is fragmented an handed over to the region in August 1996 It cooumtt a
.   u   Qambela
icn and 11 scouts Their
National   Park   was 
Md Abolx,
mandare  is  uncertain  indeed,  the  park  toady  rndudes  pan  of  a Dam
Several wildlife studies are proposed inthe
the  results  of  which  will  assist Without this as a foundation,
the    government    to    develop    an    effective    wi    e       -    a      resOurce    on    the    * there is little that can benefit wildlife in the Prol
obo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
Chapter 3EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
VOl^j
yet the national foundations essential to its survival are lacking It is a national as 
as a regional problem
3.3.8 Tourism (Annex 2G)
The development of (1) Lake Bishan Wak  a Hayk  and (2) rivers  of the lower basin as  tourist areas  are proposed The lake development would include a lodge, scenic  trails, and have as  m objective the exploration of the ecosystems  of the upper basin The rivers  would serve as  a she for canoe wildlife safaris
3.3.9 Mineral resources (Annex 2D)
The project area contains  primary  and placer deposits  of gold and other important minerals The mining of placer deposits  is  hindered by  a lack  of water Prospecting for primary  deposits is  currently  taking place The method of mining and the location and assay  of ores  will not be known until after prospecting is concluded
Environment Action Plan
Mineral resources are being prospected in the northern part of the project area Annex
4  describes  the  mitigations  required  if  active  mining  is  to  occur  These  will  require revision  once  the  characteristics  of  the  mine  and  the  method  of  mining  are  known While   there   are   no   alternatives   to   mining,   there   are   alternatives   in   processing   For example,  in  situ  leaching  is  more  hazardous  to  groundwater  than  heap  or  pit  leaching At  this  time  there  is  insufficient  information  for  guidance,  other  than  a  very  general  set of precautions
3.4 Social infrastructure
Rural    infrastructure    includes    renewable    energy,    water    supply,    wastewater    (collection, treatment and disposal) and roads.
3.4.1 Renewable energy (Annex 2J)
Alternative   sources   of   renewable   energy   were   evaluated,   including   wood   fuels,   agricultural residues,   dung,   solar   energy,   wind   energy,   geothermal   energy,   biogas,   and   hydroelectnc power.  The  continued  unregulated  use  of  wood  fuels  poses  a  threat  to  the  environmental stability  of  the  area  Agricultural  residues  and  dung,  while  these  present  alternatives  to  wood fuel,  are  better  used  as  a  component  of  soil  management.  Solar,  wind,  and  geothermal  energy he   below   current   economic   thresholds.   Biogas   is   insufficient   in   quantity   to   be   economic Hydroelectricity   generation   offers   considerable   potential,   and   was   discussed   in   a   preceding section
j.4.2 Water supply. Waste water collection, treatment and disposal (Annex II) Different categories of water supply are proposed, linked to community size and scaled to comply with the Ministry of Water Resources Letter of Sector Policy This calls for a dao supply of 35-40 litres per resident of urbar. centres and 15-25 litres per rural resident In project area there are 9 main towns. 15 medium towns, 28 small towns and 7 villages P'l*
ChapW }
^  T j ^;'
fs   l I      BarolAkoS> Ri^r Basin Inleyraled Devdopment Master PlanVOLUME I
k . comping individual services and public fountains
inu. rural households would receive an .ncrea*
£&
LV-
3 '4)
jn the " Wied t0 tOwn
° f ** and
chinuia. onlv 7 per cent of rhe population has access to sanity™ a .
W^rP Resources as access to a latnne In the
project it ls
\e^*
Mini^
Master Plan would introduce a program™ 
o
mpr
ove
-       ™  fi           dS
es
t
was ew
of its
3I
W
to
type
of
treatment
Environment Action Man
Alternatives   relating   to   water   supply   and   sanitation   refer
sanitation, type of collection, disposal and sludge management are important considerations  Each system poses  different advantages  and disadvantages  including environmental impacts  Further study  is  required, at which time a feasibility-level environmental impact assessment will have to be commissioned
1/J Solid waste collection and disposal
No programme of solid waste collection and disposal operates  in the project area Indeed, most solid wastes  such as  bottles  and paper have sufficient economic  worth to justify- their recycling The exception comprises  street sweepings, putrescent wastes, and pathogenic  or todc  wastes  The component comprises  collection and disposal of wastes  from large- and medium-sized towns  Wastes  from smaller communities  are largely  organic  and end by  being consumed by  stray  livestock  Collection would be by  tractor-drawn refuse collection vehicles 
’sposal would lake place in sanitary landfills that are impermeable, monitored, and managed.
Action Plan
For
Solid waste disposal as an adjunct of sanitation
include
m eihanizat   ’   Co'COmPostinS   with   sewage   sludge,   reuse   in   agriculture   or   silviculture,
low   financH^   °r    ’nc’nerat’011    Methanization   is   unlikely   to   prove   effective   given   the
Or    co-com'3   resourCes    available  to  schemes  that  are  to  be  self-financing  Composting
but it requ)P°St* £ *
n
S
*^e most suitable method available to the project area.
Tes a feasibility study before it can be accepted with confidenceBaro-Akobo River Basin
Integrated Development Master Plan Project
Figure 3-4
WATER supply PROGRAMMES
u—I
LJ,h*1 W|<"r SupiQiy Prnqrgnwn««
■ Main Town i CMIw T Owfi * Own Site
P 'n’***d Aqc«m Weratu fo
i
^“d" ?«<*.« nJ996
F, «n<infr
- ^nsite.apr
ARDCO/Soyur, Topo (1: 250 OOO)Ivolume r
^velopment fiat
plan Priorities are set forth in this document in
’he following order of
tk
imp0
access to ports
’ access to existing resource areas
access to new resource area
access to food deficit area
balancing the distribution of road infrastructure among regions
h these priorities, the Development Plan sets forth a number of ongoing and proposed
ln 'ine ^according to whether they involve rehabilitation, upgrading or new construction and
proj«ts^hc roads are tnjnk roads, major links or regional roads Road development under the
area would proceed during four phases and involve three separate classes of road The
RT Ct RR10, would be unpaved and suitable for seasonal traffic, ihe middle and highest
^rification would be gravel surfaced Between 700 and 1,300 km of roads would be built
during each phase, which would end in year 2035
The road development programme proposed for the project area is  shown on Figure 3-5, The
programme is in four phases Total capital costs for each phase are tabulated below
Total Capital US S Mi Dion
Phase 1
1997 -2005
72.3
Phase E
2006-2015
663
Phase RI
2016-2025
71.2
Phase IV
2026-2035
584
Environment Action Plan
The major environmental impact from roads  is  soil erosion and sediment .Annex  4, Environment, describes  the mitigations  route selection, drainage and sediment control that would be required.
E£LpABa,;" Transmission system (Annex I J)
io taied
lo l ’e l^e basin to the Interconnected System (ICS) at three strategically
131 ll>e south /      l^C nort^ of the basin to Ghimbi, in the centra) part of the basin to Mttu and WtoM,^^dTepi (Figure 3-6).
,ri dependentj _
^ COt>iniended th ' C COnstructlOn of new power plants in the Baro-Akobo basin, it is 
r .’n A fi « at a network of transmission lines connects the vinous load centres o t
r
t Yubrin r et?'O‘' of the network approximately 330 km long would conned Metu it?
r , cpi and Mi7an t'SSo and D«mbidolo A second leg to the south would connect Gore to to Ahnk F'?aIly the th,rd extension would form the southern loop by connecting
...
- Gc?g and Tepi, The total investment cost is estimated al USJ 138 mi ion
Chapter 3
r Basin Integrated Development Masltr PlanrfTHC*’*
Baro-Akobo     River     Basin
Integrated Development Master Plan Project
Figure 3-5
ROADS DEVELOPMENT
PROGRAMME
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I
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Integrated Development Master Ran Project
Figure 3-6
Powerlines- Interconnected
SystemVOLVMe |
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
be implemented over the next 20 years k. fc
Tbe 710 km ^'™rSnc^'k “d prograinnic
* ““
‘summary
VOLUME I
44
water resource planning Intcgrrt*ed water resources development
Introduction
The studies performed for the present Master Plan have included a review of the identified features (dams, irrigation projects, flood control measures, etc ) which form the range of water resource development options  for the basin These projects  have been evaluated singly, considering the project as autonomous, and as part of a river system in which all the reservoirs on a river would be operated in conjunction This mode of operation maximises the benefits derived from the regulation of the river flows  to generate firm (dependable) energy  at hydropower plants as well as to supply increased dry season flows for irrigated agriculture in ihe Gambela plain Thus, for two or more hydropower schemes on the same river operated in conjunction the total energy  generated is  greater than the sum of the power of the same schemes operated independently. For the combination of hydropower and irrigation schemes, the construction of any of the major hydropower schemes on rivers in the upper basin would provide considerable benefits to irrigation schemes in the lower basin because releases from the reservoirs for power generation would increase dry season river flows. This would benefit downstream irrigation either by eliminating the need for a storage dam, or by reducing its size, or in the case of a phased irrigation development by delaying the construction of a storage dam until a later stage.
Although not all the components of the systems might belong to the present Master Planning horizon, these schemes still need to be considered in the context of the river basin system so as 10 prevent undue constraints on the long term future development
*4.2 System Modelling
^•combined operation of reservoirs within each of the river systems was analysed using the U S c COmputer P  8tam This is a simulation model that was specifically developed by the
ro
Or ps of Engineers to assist in planning studies for evaluating reservoirs in a system and hydr^ ,COnservat’On storage requirements for flood control water conservation and
generation These objectives are accomplished by simulating the sequential hydrol'00 3 sys,cm reservoirs of any configuration for short interval of historical
Sy | °®ICa* CVCnU or for longer duration non-flood periods
wSClUn8 WaS
oul for thc Bar0> Alwero 31x1 ®l0 rivcn No mode,lin8
h z4 C f°r th® Akobo because only one scheme has been identified on that river, the
n yaropower S€heme
Akobo Rhcr Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
Cluptcr 4EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
/ 7.3 System Model for the Boro River Basin
Introduction
The  Baro  river  system  has  a  catchment  area  in  excess  of  24.000  km2   at  the  pron of the Itang dam, the most downstream project site considered in the basin A
dams have been evaluated for their regulating capabilities to generate firm en supply water to the 249.000 hectares of net irrigable areas in the Gambela plain, jn of the Baro river, as shown in Figure 3-3
Hydropower schemes and irrigation - priority to hydropower
locilKlri ° f ,en and to
e v ’c,!My
The  two  most  attractive  projects  in  the  basin,  in  terms  of  economic  return the  Geba-A  dams  The  effect  of  both  projects  is  to  regulate  the  river  flows modest,  provides  a  significant  increase  in  the  low  flows  of  the  Baro,  sufficient
the Baro and
s which although
for the irrioafi/m
of 85,500 hectares  of land in the vicinity  of the Itang dam These 85,500 hectares  could be irrigated without the provision of any  additional regulating dam, and would also meet the requirement for the minimum environmental flow release This  potential irrigable area is 78,000 hectares  larger than the 7,500 hectares  which could be achieved without any  regulate of the flows
Irrigation and hydropower - priority to irrigation
Of the 249,800 hectares of irrigable land that have been identified, 98,300 ha would be served from the Itang reservoir and 151,500 ha from the Gambela reservoir From the sedimentation studies  it appears  that the Itang reservoir will have a limited life, and therefore it will be necessary' for the long-term planning to assume that the regulating storage will have to be provided upstream of Itang, for example at the Gambela reservoir. A simulation model of the Gambela reservoir shows  that an active storage of 2,100 Mem, i.e , a maximum pool level at El 505 will be necessary  to irrigate the 249,800 hectares  and still maintain the minimum release requirement of 29.7 m'/sec
In the case of the Gambela reservoir, a dual project, i c., irrigation and power, was considered with priority  bang given to irrigation There are 95,400 hectares  that can be supplied with water from the reservoir by  gravity  This  water however, could not be released through the power plant located at the toe of the dam For the purpose of this  analysis, the reservoir hu been considered with a maximum pool level at El 495. From the water not used for irrigation hydropower benefits  could be generated from a 75 MW plant located at the toe of the dam 365 GWh of firm energy would be produced annually
Combined hydropower operation
The other development scenarios that have been investigated are the combined operation hydroelectric power plants on the same stem of a river The reservoirs operate as a b system where energy deficit at one reservoir can be compensated with surpluses at t e o This situation has been evaluated for the two major rivers in the upper basin namely 1 c . and Geba rivers This operation provides firm energy' in excess of what would be generate each plant individually
On the Birbir river, a reservoir system consisting of
• the Birbir-A dam urith an installed capacity of 86 MW at a downstream diversion
..
•      the  Birbir-R  dam  with  a  maximum  pool  level  at  El  1,120  and  equipped  with  a power plant.
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Batin Integrated Development Matter Plan£XECUTrVESrMM.4RY
would  be  capable  of  generating  2,618  GUT,  per   vear    ,
raore .han .he .ou, oUtpul
4 similar situation exists on the Geba river Three a
Geba river and its tributary the Sor river Tbevr^ ^^^'^
downstream diversions, the Sor dam with a power T** °f the °<*a-A Z u" ^version, and the Geba-R dam located just up t
VOLUME]
TWs M|W of
* '^Pwdently
5
S ream S’.™ ” tbe dam and 1 h hV°
emulation model of this system has been prepared^h '^ COnfluen« with the fiS— )83 MW at the two diversions downstream nf r l 3 tolal installed canarv lrnvcr A
3 70 MW at the Geba-R dam This system of five fim energy per year if operated together u*/
running independently  14 4 than would bc
.
65 W on tb^SoW
P 31,15 WOuld generate ’ 7?/^ 3nd
s^nerated w5^itShGthWehpobl)fts
Based on the promising return shown bv som, nf l
Akobo basin, several scenarios of develop™ 7 . ^‘xl'ctric schema • .v
including in particular the two river systems T*
economic benefits of these JL? s’ndl^ed above ln ord^?n (?SMaster P!an
idcntifi«d as part of rhk
— of
These staged scenarios considered the better projects of the basin including the Gcba-A dam. the system of Birbir-A and Birbir-R dams, the Baro dam, the Sor dam and possibly the Geba-
R dam To that end. a series of models were created for the following stages of development
•    Geba-A
(phase 1)
•    Geba-A and Birbir-A
(phase?)
•    Geba-A. Birbir-A and Birbir-R
(phase 3)
•    Geba-A, Birbir-A, Birbir-R and Baro
(phase 4)
•    Geba-A  Birbir-A Birbir-R, Baro and Sor
(phase 5)
•    Geba-A  Birbir-A Birbir-R, Baro, Sor and Geba-R
(phase 6)
The benefits of the various stages of development, in terms of firm and dependable capacity, ^e shown in the table below
Hydropower Potential of the Baro River Basin
Pha«
----- ----------------------------------- — Installed Capacity 
(MW)
Finn Energy
(GW)
Dependable
Capacity pnV)
----— 1
183
940
183
r—~
2
269
1,413
269
——
591
3.588
618
950
5.033
877
1,015
1,385
5,421
7.335
93
1.259 J
,l  should be noted that the installed capacities those quoted for each project considered J-
based on a load factor of 60%
■ • nf the individuajalon decve fi eloprcse .
. ctases are larger
led  capacity
Baro-a kobo River Basin Integrated DevdoptnciK Muter Pta
CliipTcr 4EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Gumero project, which is also in the Baro river basin, was not modelled '
since its small size would not significantly contribute to the flow regulation in the batin
4.1.4 System Model for the Alwero River Basin
On the Alwero river system, three dams have been considered for irrigation th
Abobo dam with a proposed 10,400 hectares of irrigable land, and the Dumbono C a**®8 dams with 15,000 hectares and 12,000 hectares of net irrigable areas respectively dam had been identified on the Mey river by Selkhozpromexport, but does not an economically justifiable due to the relatively small amount of water in this basin
**
A  simulation  model  of  the  system  was  developed  to  evaluate  the  total  potential  of  the  Al basin  The  first  conclusion  is  that  for  the  combined  operation  of  the  Dumbong  and  Abofo dams,  the  required  active  storage  at  Dumbong  should  be  243  Mem,  i  e  with  a  maximum reservoir  level  at  El  518,  to  irrigate  15,000  hectares  and  release  sufficient  water  to  allow irrigation at the Abobo dam When the third reservoir at Chiru is considered and the Dumbone and   Abobo   reservoirs   are   maintained   at   the   level   established   above,   an   additional 9,000  hectares  of  land  can  be  irrigated  at  the  Chiru  dam  without  affecting  the  Abobo  project Therefore the maximum potential irrigation system in the Alwero system is 36,000 hectares
4.1.5 System Model for the Gilo River Basin
In the Gilo basin, the storage provided by  the Gilo-1 is  sufficient to irrigate the 123,100 hectares  of land under its  command There are another 72,800 hectares  of irrigable land in the vicinity  of Gilo-2 Gilo-1 alone does  not provide sufficient regulating storage to meet the requirement of the combined 196,000 hectares. A simulation model of the combined operation of Gilo-1 and Gilo-2 reservoirs  has  been prepared to determine the maximum irrigation potential of the Gilo river The model shows that the storage of the two reservoirs is sufficient to develop the full potential of 196,000 hectares
The Gilo-1 dam has  also been considered as  dual purpose reservoir for irrigation anc hydropower If the dam is  considered as  a hydropower project with priority  to the production of firm energy, the annual generation of firm energy  is  estimated at 426 GWh From the regulated flow releases, 47,600 hectares of net irrigable area can be supplied with water at one or several downstream locations
Alternatively  the  objectives  of  flow  regulation  can  be  reversed  to  give  priority  to  imgation over  energy  generation  In  this  case,  water  from  the  reservoir  would  be  diverted  to irrigable  lands  in  the  vicinity  of  Gilo-1  dam  123,100  hectares  are  available  for  irrigation remaining  regulated  water  can  be  released  through  a  power  plant  at  the  dam  A  > hydroelectric  power  plant  located  at  the  toe  of  the  dam  would  generate  119  GWh  o energy per year
TAMS-OLG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan^cirnvE
____________
VOLUME r
progrt"""' for Hydropw Dwlopmtni
4^
, j .Vfediui^ and Large Prajeets
]einent3i'on   programme  for  the  small  and  medium  scale  hydropower  projects  will Th6  'JP thc  IeaS( cost expansion plan for the Interconnected System Two alternatives have
deJ  nd
*   °L red for planning purposes:- beeti conPsider co
^. ^e 7anon
r
n
of   the   Baro    Aj?oljo    projects   lo   meet   the   growing   demands   estimated   by 
^LFA (■ e about 100/0 PCT annum> 'n ordcr °f ltaSl WSt pCr instaUed kW> »
4,1
^ T^enUtion of the Baro Akobo projects at the rate of one project every four year (i.e a JZinuous construction programme)
Obr-iously for the Baro-Akobo basia Alternative I is preferred since it represents a higher investment in the area Again the decision On this point falls will be based on national planning considerations.
The rate of annual investment is  not a criterion for the choice since the investments  in hydropoweT will presumably be made in any case, if not in the Baro Akobo basin, (hen in some other basins.
Figure 4-1 : Alternative 1t Implementation Program for Medium & Large Hydropower Projects
Installed Capacity {MW]
Sor & Kasha
I
I
'"'ears 9
e
1
9
-_
1
9
9
112222 99      0000 990000
_L     0  _1_  _2_ J.
2
0
0
4
2      2    2    2  2       22
22
00
0     0o00
o      00o0
5 6 _7 J_-9
C0
1*
0A
2
0
1
2
2
□
1     11
3
4 ±_J
"—-—— 
______
.
_ ----- -- ~
pp-
Chapter 4
“*ro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Muter
4JEXECUTIVE SUMMARY
4.2.2    Small Projects
If no medium and large scale hydropower projects are built in the Baro-Ak assumed that small hydropower projects, Gumero (50MW) and the Kashu (60Mw? a$ln’ *i$ implemented since they are more economical than any other means of meetin h *Ould bt
requirements 
8 lt * e,ectricity
nresent planning of EELPA the national grid system will have reached the
According               P (hcP ,999 This, together with existing supplies within the basm
Baro-Akobo bas >
So taplS >h' M aage Of ,he Gumer° PrOi“ -
be sufficient to meet local demands until there has been
2005
t   SCh'dUle<1 ’°
lme ”
It should be noted that the large scale commercial farming operations may commence in the year 2005 and the presence of a nearby hydropower plant would provide farther assurance to the private investor
Therefore the Gumero project would be implemented in stages  until the next project, the Kashu project, comes  on line in the year 2024 This  implementation schedule for the small hydropower projects is illustrated on Figure 4-2
Figure 4-2 : Implementation Program for Small Hydropower Projects
mw
Gumero III
TAMS-ULG Baro- Ako bo River Basin Integrated Development Master PlaneXECIrnvt summary
VOLUME 1
u irrig.fo" Pr"jM,S
}}
Ai**ro
the sunk costs of the Abobo Dam. the rale of return of completing the Ahmo
Igr °n on Project is calculated to be 25% and this project should therefore be retarded as a
WSa" it is estimated that fanning development can commence 2 years after the "resumption
P fOfl| struction and that the scheme of 10,400 ha will be fully developed four years later This that land can be placed under imgation at an average rate of 2000 ha/year, which is a
h gh target level.
4J. 2
^
cr   ylwcrc,  the  most  economically  attractive  and  least  environmentally  damaging  project  is 
the Bare Right Bankltang Dam Project For planning purposes  it is  assumed that farming operations  for this project will proceed immediately after the Alwero/Abobo Dam Project is fully implemented, i.e commencing in the year 2005
Two development scenarios are possible namely:-
Investment  from  the  private  sector  for  commercial  fanning  operations,  coupled  with small-holder agriculture
Pure small-holder fanning operation
The commercial farming operation would include a core estate say over 25% of the area designated for commercial operations, supporting and supported by  the oulgrower small holders who would utilise the remaining 75% of die area. Even with this arrangement it is anticipated that the commercial farming operation would cover only 40 - 50% of the Baro Hi&ht Bank/Itang project The other 50% -60% would be occupied by  purely  small-holder agriculture
. Or P’^rtning purposes, it is assumed that the commercial fanning operation can be
emented at an average rate of 2000ha/year and at the same time purely small-holder
hire can be implemented at the same rate
hold^^ Scenar,0> commercial/small-holder operation, is to be preferred over pure small-
and J SinCe n ®Ves higher rate of return, reduces the investment required from government
Vesa fester production schedule
^ Pl7entati°T'     the     subsequent     irrigation     projects,     namely     upper     Alwero/Dumbong nd the Gllo Right Bank Project would follow a similar strategy
4.4 w
Uat'r bala
nce
Tl1 ]■
Qilo'thlS Uble shows that even in the most densely populated catchments, Baro, Alwero e maximum development will not be constrained by the lack of water.
—— ___________________—
artKAJ<obo Rjv  B* »n Integrated Development Master Plan
Chapter 4
er        sEXECUTIVE SUMMARY
V °LUMe I
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan 46SUMMARY
VOLUME I
pevelopment of the master plan
i.
M*i° Plan"’"* Considerations
S«*
The Master Plan will compose a combination of the various development projects identified in each sector as summarised in Chapter 2 in order to best realise the objectives of the study,
which are T(J
develop the resources of the basin for the welfare of its people
•   create an understanding of the natural and socio-economic conditions to arrest and reverse the decline of the environment
*  consider rhe equitable and sustainable exploitation of resources in the light of the needs of the people of the basin in particular and of Ethiopia in general.
Four main considerations guided the planning process, namely -
The urgent need to preserve the resource base
The need to ensure food security to the growing population of the basin and where possible, to provide food surplus for use in Ethiopia Or for export.
The need to improve the base infrastructure in the basin
The timing of large water resources developments in the basin
The first three considerations, which are closely interlinked, lead to the definition or a base development plan (scenario I) which forms the irreducible minimum development required to ^suFe the welfare of the population and to arrest the decline in the environment. This base case will provide the foundation for the implementation of the major water resources projects
fourth consideration leads to the definition of development scenarios II-Vk as described 111 ngure 5.1
feasiKr<*r0^OWer feasfoiLity  studies  can be completed in about 2 years, by  which time the
been lty StQdies 00
Tckeze, Chemoga Yeda, Belles and Helele-Warabesa will have
l99sCOnip'eie<f Thus  the decision point for hydropower project planning will be December
• shown on Figure 5 1.
-------------  -------------------------------------- ---------------- ------ —
Chapter 5
ar *-Akob<  Rj
1
1 ver Bjsjij integrated Develop®*"  Master PlanEXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Scenario VI
Maximum Investment
Figure 5.1 Master Plan Development Decision Tree
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
48volume i
se  D«velopn,ent Pl*  (
n
Scen3‘rio 0
: J  Co*™*
debase ca^u
development comprises the following components 
Catchment management and reforestation
Improvement and extension to rainfed agriculture
I Support for natural resources
Improvement of the infrastructure
Completion of the Alwero irrigation scheme
promotion of mineral resources development
Environmental monitoring, training and impact mitigation
- Institutional development.
Catchment management
It is clear that an immediate programme of catchment protection must be undertaken, oriented mainly towards soil conservation and reforestation Without these two elements the natural resource base will deplete further with agricultural yields continuing to Call as they have aver the past decade or so This  applies  particularly  to the Upper Basin where most of the population is located and where the existing agriculture and farming systems provide what food security’ exists in the project area Catchment preservation in the basin, particularly the upper catchment must also focus on farming practices adopted in the rainfed fanning systems
Rainfed agricu Itu re
This component is strongly linked to catchment management with which it forms the single nw important action that will ensure the welfare of the people. The improvement of rainfed
^culture has been shown to be a more economic and certain way of ensuring future food
'he development of irrigated agriculture The detailed proposals contained in this firnun*’” ensure that the long term decline in agricultural productivity is reversed by improved
Prac'ices. However in order to meet the future food production targets it will also be Tol iX*0 ‘ncrease the area of land under cultivation from the present area of 6l0,000ha
01 4 million ha in 2035
^ gfOurces
^tara] reX^°reStr^’
has been included as part of catchment management, the proposed
*
0Urce components of the base case development plan comprise ents ^he health and productivity of livestock
• P °tectj
r
rnenl renewabte energy
' Mancie011
development of tourism
’ de\ ei ,
f   ernent °fthe marketing of wild honev
’ ’'onS""'" °f “"''Jrc           ™ 1* l'ver! “> °f fisb 6n",'s ” ”y ”*
10n °r mineral resource development
* ^Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
Chapters
rEXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The data that is currently available is not sufficient for the formulation of detailed d proposals in many cases the immediate activity will be data collection and fl CVcl°prnen<
I
However it has been possible to provide development guidelines which, it is f
et
| "Cr
included in the Master Plan even though it is not possible to assign specific costs .SflOuld
any case relatively very small
Infrastructure
The infrastructure component of the base development plan comprises,
•    the provision of urban and rural water supply
•    road improvements and new road construction spread over 4 phases
•    the provision of a basin electric transmission system
•    improvements to health facilities
Alwero irrigation scheme
The base development plan also includes the completion of implementation of the ongoing Alwero/Abobo Dam irrigation system which can be regarded as a committed irrigation project 5.2.2    Cost estimate
’ fllc" in
The estimated total cost of this  base development is  USS 2,542 million which will be spread over a period of nearly  40 years. The annual costs  build up gradually  from about USS 7.3 million/year to about USS 88 5 million/year throughout the planning period
The breakdown of the total investment by sector is as follows.
Component
% share .
Completion of Alwero/Abobo Irrigation Project
2 62
Improvements to Rainfed Agriculture
61 90
Coffee Improvement
7.75
Water Supplv programme
________ rr - .r n 
- Town Water Supply
_ 
—-
—,
4.00
- Rural Water Supplv
4 59
Catchment Management Programme
0.42      ^1
Road Sector programme
1O55
Basin Transmission system
5 40
Environmental Impact programme *1
2.56____ -
■ - ---------- ---------------—----  ——— Institutional strengthening programme
0_22___ _ -
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master PlanVOLUME I
• Baro Right RanJc]tang Dam Irrigation Project (50 goo x. .
. Gumero 1,2 and 3 Hydropower Project (50 MW lnsra]fe
•    Kashu Hydropower Project (60 MW installed) jjj Corf
J
The total investment for Scenario II over the period of 40 years is about USS 592 million, which represents an average of USS 14 8 million/year The annual cost varies from about $ 2 8 rflion/year to $ 35 million/year. In this scenario the hydropower sector represents 29.3 % of die rota! investment while the irrigation represents 70.7 % of the investment.
5.4 Scenario m - Hydropower for Basin and Commercial Irrigation
J.4U Content
Ths is the same as Scenario II except that it has been assumed that significant private sec o investment can be attracted to the irrigation projects in the basin
The irrigation development under this scenario thus consists of
•  Bare RB/Itang Dam Irrigation Project
- commercial component 22,000 ha
- smal-lh--o--ld^jeuripcounmepnoi nent 32,000 ha    na
*      l'nn*- 4 1
—
PP^r Alwero/Dumbong Dam Irrigation Project
- Cnmtnr.*--’ i
conunerciaJ component 7,000 ha LitEXECUTIVE SUMMARY
5.5         Scenario IV - Hydropower for Basin and ICS and Small-holder Irrigation 5.5.1 Content
The hydropower development under the scenario thus consists of -
•
Geba A 1+2
Installed
capacity 
183   MW
•
Birbir A+R
Installed
capacity 
508    MW
•
Baro A 1+2
Installed
capacity 
259   MW'
•
Kashu
Installed
capacity 
60    MW'
• Sor
Installed capacity 65 MW
These projects  would be installed in four year increments  starting with Geba-A, 1 & 2 which would be fully  on line by  the year 2005. The energy  production over the basin will satisfy  the demand of the country.
5.5.2     Cost
The total investment over the period of 40 years  is  about USS 2,148 million, which represent an average of USS 53.7 million/year The annual cost varies  from about S 6 million'year to
$237.82  million/year  It  should  be  noted  however  that  the  excess  expenditure  over  Scenario  11
represents   on   investment   in   the   national   generation   system   rather   than   on   investment   for   the needs of the basin
The hydropower projects  are nevertheless  of great benefit to the basin because of the secondary  benefits  of the investments  and because of the additional regulation that the projects in the upper reaches  of the Baro River provide to the benefit of the downstream irrigation development. In this  scenario the hydropower sector represents  80.5 % of the total investment while the irrigation represents 19 5 % of the investment.
5.6 Scenario V - Hydropower for Basin and ICS and Commercial Irrigation
5.6.1 Content
This Scenario is the same as Scenario IV except that it is 
sector investment can be attracted to the irrigation projects in the basin development under this scenario would be the same as Scenario III.
an   average   of   USS   67   8   million/year.   The   annual   cost   varies   from   about   $   6     moSl    of   th* $258 million/year. Although these investments are high it should be noted a
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master PlanEXECUTIVE SUMMARY
VOLUME 1
«.v%**.■«»
. «££
irtigMiwi o
4 of the invest^
5 7 Scenario VI - Fast track hydropower and
. ? j Con‘gnt
e Ci,|irrigatioD c '”»n» r
s                      o js a variant of scenario V in which the hydropower projects are implemented
Tt* SCeTrter time frame (by the year 2015) such that most of the growing demands on the
o** a shott
r
20IS are met by projects in the Baro Akobo Basin Under tbs Scenario
( seCSco, nudPary 10or1 finTl energy  could be exported to the neighbouring countries  such as  Sudan
asd Djibouti
5.7.2 Cost
The total investment is identical with the previous Scenano. over the period of 40 vean « about USS 2,713 rrulhon, which represents an average of USS 67.8 million/vear The annkiai
cost  vanes  from  about  $  6  million/year  to  S  258  miUi
on yw
/     It  will  be  noted  that  the
investments  are extremely  high up to the year 2015, reflecting the high investment in
hydropower for the national generation systems  As  previously, in dus  scenano tfe
? % °f
' nveStmenl while
represents 36.4 % of
’ Basin Integrated Development Mister Plan
Cliiplcr SiU
Total investments
Tte  total cost of each of the six scenarios in the immediate shon
in Table 6.1 
"«d>um terms is
s
I
T.M.M  “"'"^.r b.eMtBr,ll,6St„^tsSoifcB
Stewrio Immediate term Short term
(1996-2000)
191.25
13.47
13 47
30.72
32 52 32 52
(2001-2015)
767.20
276.32
544 23
1778.82
2044 73
2198 03
Total
I n m IV
V
VI
Medium term
(2016-2035) 1583 93 303 04 59864 33854 63614
482 84
2542
593
1156
2148
2713
2713
iM *"* xxsr,lK “si °f                              ™
5ctBin0
I
I'D
I’ffl
1^
‘1.2 a, Vi
Base Case
Base r Small ^ro'X)wcr &■ smallholder irrigation Base ' '4 h 0P°Wer & SmallholdCT ^Ption
Total investaeni
(USS million)
2,542
3,134
3,698
4,690
5,255
5,255
^° e, Scenaij
v
j! '-
>n
g
^d the nrJj ^S,C devel°PmenI dial is essential if the decline in the
W of the land is to be arrested, it is the scenario that
f
I
> J  re^Ulrernent$  fn^L °L lniProving  the welfare of the basin's population by
/^hire wi-St Scenario 1 u necess‘ties wa,er- f°°4  and energy  Nearly f. Of c^> as has been h' devotcd t0 improvement and extension of rainfed
J^ctUre d/C lriVestment ' °Wn’ “  extreme'-v attractive economic proposition The >?’mea  r°Jects *hich a  oted to  environmental,  narural resource and soda!
^d
e
fed     *n     monet   C     ^°r    we^   ^ing  °f   population   even   if   the   benefits 1  - ^ligated tenns ^he negative environmental impacts of the Scenario
B *«n Integrated DneJopment Master Plin
54
Chapter 6EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Vo UME
6.1.3    Hydropower
Economic arguments
The studies have shown that the medium and large hydropower projects electricity cheaper than the small schemes, but compete with the best available for development anywhere in the country These projects will also
Produc« thai *
secondary benefits to the basin’s population, the main ones being: Pr°viae impo^
•    employment opportunities associated with the construction and operation of
•    regulation of the rivers which will benefit downstream irrigated agriculture ' '
•    fish farming and recession grazing
These benefits, and also the additional benefits of the conjunctive operation of several schemes in the same river basin, provide a powerful economic argument the hydropower development to supply the Interconnected System as describe IV, V and VI
Environmental arguments
°f
in Sccn»os
Although the hydropower schemes  inevitably  cause irreversible damage to the environment crucial negative impacts  - displacement of population and the flooding of land - are relatives minor as  the schemes  are situated in remote areas  far from intensively  cultivated land The recommended mitigation measures  have been fully  costed and it is  not considered that there it any overriding environmental reason why the medium and large schemes should not go ahead
National considerations
Two national considerations  must be borne in mind Firstly, it is  at present the Government s policy, supported by  the World Bank, to favour medium sized hydropower projects  ir. preference to large schemes. .Although it would be surprising if this  preference lasted over the 35 years  of the planning period, it does  mean that the medium scale schemes, such as  Geba and Baro are likely to be built first and large schemes like Birbir to be built later
Secondly it is likely that the Government will want to spread the very major investment involved in the national electricity expansion programme geographically over the whole country, irrespective of the strictly economic ranking While the predicted growth in nation population and electrical energy demand will eventually require the implementation o i viable schemes, this national consideration implies that the rate of hydropower dev clopmen the basin may be slower than envisaged in Scenario V
6.1.4     Irrigation
Economic arguments
The economic analyses have shown that the economic return on irrigated agne^
culture is
*>
for    large    scale   commercial   projects   than   for   smallholder   projects   However   °
dcsirab)e
mid
well as political reasons a mix of smallholder and commercial operations is therefore commercial/smallholder farming of the best schemes, Baro Right
Alwero should form the basis of future planning, subject to confirmation at
should be noted that the estimated economic rates of returns are for stan ^ydrop *^ schemes and these rates would be significantly increased if medium or large
st8 gt ft
imP3!!l'r’
0
projects were to be constructed on the same river further upstream TAMS-UEG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Planvolume I
swdies
considerations
ruinated that the irrigation schemes will be developed 33 commercial
- ^tioP ' ^ "**‘ ■--------------- f~pnvate finance The programme for implonemation therefore
31    l
-
c„—„
, mmercaJlf“^--’e--si - w---t-l»——     a    -WJ «TM|I <1
“^tanbal ‘^^mnfent passing the appropriate enabling legislation and establishing a
05 Selected scenario
The balance of the arguments outlined in sections 6 1.2 and 6 1 3 above lead to the selection of Scenario V. which comprises  hydropower for supply  to the Integrated Connection System nod commercial farming, as  being the most advantageous  for the people of the basin However, it is  recognised that environmental reservations  and national considerations  mean that both the content and above all the programme of this Scenario, if adopted, may in reality’ differ substantially from that actually shown. Irrespective of the actual rate of development h is unponmt that, in general, the implementation of hydropower precedes  that of irrigation so that the latter benefits  fully  from the regulatory  effects  of hydropower releases  on the dry season river flows.
A map showing the recommended Master Plan development is presented in Figure 6 1 € ash Flow
The distribution of the total investment for each of Scenario
t d Scenario V is presented in 755 million. whk
r-_ 
, . 
hgme6 4 The total
■web 4 The total
. 
^Presents an average of USS 131.38 million/vear The Investment
« j~ *rjiA»«*** l"c
investment o_ve__r _th_e__p_e_ri_o_d_o_f_4_0__ye__a_rs __is _____ _ rjsS 5.255 million. which
from ggS J
ndlliAH >•—r
iBaro-Akobo River Basin integrated Development
Master Plan Project
[
| Figure 6-1 MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT
■■■ \
aaFipiFi’
For  the  Mintatry  of  Water  Resources of the Government of Ethiopia
Produced
Sources
GIS Filename: mpian.aprICost <U55 Million)
XECimVE SUMMARY
VOLUME I
Figure 6-2 : Summary of the Investment Schedule of the Proposed Master Plan. ( I H V}
1*MS.ILG
K „rBuinMetrii
—— ——
Mic
Chapter 6g^ccuTmc summary
VOLUME 1
INSTITUTIONAL AND IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGY
7j introduction
7.1.1   Purpose
The purpose of the institutional Study was
To consider possible future arrangements for co-ordinating and implementing the
proposed Master Plan Development and
To examine the scope for institutional strengthening and institutional support
7. J. 2 Regional and Federal Responsibilities.
Four different regional governments  will have primary  responsibility  for implementing the multi-sectoral developments  (eg rain-fed agriculture catchment improvement, urban and rural water supply  and roads) in their part of the basin The major water resource developments  (dams  for hydropower, large irrigation schemes) involve trans-boundary  rivers ("international waters”) flowing across  more than one regional government. Co-ordination of the project is  thus  treated as  a federal responsibility  but wnh the full involvement of and support to the regions involved
Phased Institutional development
7.21 Phase!
Phase 1, which spans the first five years, is c 
basin both for multi-sectoral rural development■pr°J 
resources development projects in the basin s w
baseline data for monitoring and evaluation purposes 
with co-ordination of plans for the
of preparation for specific water
uirc a detailed study to provide programme Co-ordinating
;   i   government   administrations 
Unit (PCU) is proposed with sub uruts in each of the tour re^ j involved. Technical assistance, funds for studies an
to the regional governments far implementation an capacity At the same time specific funds for water r preparation of feasibility studies and preparatory wo organisation structure is shown in Figure 7 1
Phase 2, which comprises the realisation and opera oik the continuation of the multi-sectoral rural developmen
rf!C ona
j»
ve ODn
requircd)
means of strengthening local |    ieni could be directed io | aier construction A possible
of an autonomous Baro-Akobo Basin Water Management Authority 
fnajor water resources projects and ex ecoited under the direction
. This bodv Would operate
__________ —--------------- —"
-            ________ Cb*|>te r 1
MolerEXECUTIVE SUMMARY _________________________________________
VOLUME I
„
hv receiving oavments for water charges from the major water
on a basis of cost recov ry y 
approved costs of operation and maintenance of the
users It would
^gov^ment to cover the cost of debt service for the
capital works and Pass
w be ^presented on its board of management and would
Z kreed™B«ve“m
etc’from water using projecrs/enrerprises in thrir area
(sec Figure 7.2)
-      ‘ the multi sectoral role of the phase 1 basin co-ordinating unit would reduce
During this phase
.      activilies        Could     be     taken     over     by     the     regional     governments     with     co-
“dm'Xn    on    basin    wide    issues    being    maintained    by    the    regional    cells    of    the    former    basrn    co- ord     nating     unit     The     specialised     water     resources     activtt.es     of     the     basm     co-ordinating     urn however    should    continue    and    be    absorbed    into    a    new    basin    water    managemem    orgaresation The     chan     CF     sure     7     2)     indurates     the     structure     and     relationship     of     the     proposed     Water Management Authority, to operate during this second stage of development.
O»Pter
Bas,n Integrated I^elopmem Master Plan
60executive summary
VOLUME 1
Figure 7-1: Possible Organisation For Baro-Akobo Implementation For First Phase Detailed Planning And Capacity Building
61EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
VOLUME 1
Figure 7-2: Possible Organisation For Baro-Akobo Implementation For Second Phase
Design, Construction, Operation Of Major Water Works System
Cost Recovery from Main Water Users 
Special Arranged j or Small Scale Imga,orS-
TXMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Planexecutive SUMMARY
VOLUME I
CONCLUSIONS, RECOMMENDATIONS AND Fl'THER STUDIES Conclusions
8.1.1     Human Resources
The present population within the Baro Akobo river basin is  estimated to be 2 2 million and to be growing at an average annual rate of 2 2% The population is  predicted to reach 5 3 million in the year 2035 The resource potential of this  population will require careful planning to fully realise its potential
8.1.2     JPater resources
Waler resources  within the Basin are plentiful and will not act as  a constraint on any  of the Master Plan scenarios  There is  scope for the development of groundwater to meet demands for water supply  needs  while the surface water resources  can. with the construction of dams  to regulate dry season flows, meet irrigation and hydropower demands
8.1. J Aafu ral Resources
The Basin is  well endowed with natural resources  which are capable, if correctly  husbanded, of providing the population with food, energy* and raw materials  However it should be noted that at present food productivity  is  declining and food production is  being maintained at the expense of the natural environment This  situation is  unsustainable and is  the subject of the proposed base development plan
8*1.4 Financial Resources
Financial resources are almost entirely lacking within the basin and
proposed in the Master plan will require external funding. It isi propos means of a mix of both public and private investment It wil e impo a create an economic climate that is attractive lo private funding
Recommended Rural development
8.2.Z Base development plan
A base development plan is recommended to
which is to guide the sustainable development of
people. The principal recommendations are as follows
TAMS.( LG Baro-Akobo River Basin Uiiegrilrd Development Marler Plan
Government to
m cter Plan for the welfare of its
Ch .ip ter SEXECUTIVE SUMMARY
VOLUME I
8.2.2
Soil co
nser
vation
Soil
erosion
is 
a    serious    problem    Any    improvement
in
crop
production
will
be
short
lived
unless its rate is controlled
Recommendation
Introduce a ”bottom-up" land husbandry concept with the full co-operation of all land
users and land owners, with micro planning at the holdings (farmer) level This 
planning at local level would follow recommendations and systems for individual
climatic and land zones. The systems and recommendations would be the responsibilit
of professional officers within the Federal Government
8.2.3       Forests
Logging moratorium
Forests   are   a   key   component   of   the   Master   Plan   area's   ecosystem,   yet   they   are   rapidly   being depleted through over-logging and use for fuelwood
Recommendation
Introduce a moratorium of 6 to 12 months  on timber felling During this  time inventory the standing volume Based on its  results, modify  the cutting plan to a sustainable basis
Training
The    supply    of    technical    foresters    is    insufficient    to    meet    the    requirements    of    an    expanding    and developing resource
Recommendation
Implement the training programme outlined in Annex  2E Forestry  This  development option requires  6 candidates  to receive education at the MSc  level Four are to enter service, 2 are to teach undergraduate forestry
8.2.4        Rainfed Agriculture
Agricultural land, labour, and capital are not used to their full advantage. Biological, chemical and mechanical technologies  as  well as  cultural practices  require improvement if farm production is to sustainably increase
Recomm^
the supply of fertilisers, implementing soil conservation, increasing the essential inputs and improving coffee technology .
8.2.5 Livestock
potential for a very large increase in productivity, especially of cattle. The to growth arc              cultural and structural
^yytS-lILG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master PlanEXECUTIVE SUMMARY
VOLUME 1
Implement the recommendations  cited in the Livestock  Annex. Annex  2L These include strategies  to improve pastures  and improve the use of forage plants Communal grazing within the upper basin and the use of rangelands  in the lower basin should be expanded The following should be considered increase the use of other feed resources, expand tsetse eradication programmes, improve veterinary  services, expand waler supplies  for livestock, improve veterinary  services, increase small-scale dairy, meat and poultry production, and improve draught cattle husbandry
8.2.6 Wildlife & Tourism
Wildlife
Knowledge   about   wildlife   and   its   habitat   in   the   Project   area   is   inadequate   for   resource planning
Recommendation
Provide technical training to the Regional Wildlife Authority  In so doing, conduct studies  of protected areas, including the following (I) define the boundaries  and proclaim new protected areas, and (2) prepare management plans  for new protected areas  This  should include mechanisms  for community-based conservation and private initiatives  Outside of protected areas, alternatives  such as  civet cat farming, crocodile farming, and wildlife ranching are possible
Tourism
There is  considerable scope for the development of tourism within the basin which could provide a valuable addition to the economy  In particular eco-tourism would be dependent on lhe preservation of the natural environment and of wildlife,
Recommendation
Tourism should be promoted by  private operators  in joint venture with local community  institutions  Such joint ventures  require government support and co operation
K 2. / Rural economy
Apiculture
Marketing  of  bee  products  is  below  its  potential  Habitat  loss,  pesticide  use,  and  poor  product preparation affect the industry.
Recommendation
Provide assistance to honey  hunters  to bring them into the fold of beekeepers  This requires  technical improvements  to their basic  methodologies  Similarly, assist beekeepers  to improve their marketing. Much of this  can be achieved by  organising beekeepers' co-operatives  Implement future studies  of beekeeping practices, the effects of pesticides, and low-technology beekeeping
FAMS-Ul-G Biro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Devtlopmcat MasterPlan
Chaptersexecutive summary
Fisheries
VOLUME 1
Fisheries development in the Master Plan area is hindered by a lack of information about the resource Nonetheless, many livelihoods depend on fishing Development options that ignore fisheries risk damaging an important sector of the economy
Recommendation
Improve credit availability  to the fish industry  Establish a fisheries  enforcement agency, provide the legislative foundations  for regulation of the industry  Evaluate low-cost, low-volume technical options for fish marketing to adjacent regions improve the distribution and marketing infrastructure Encourage the formation of fishing and fisheries co-operatives Improve extension services and training of fisheries personnel Promote the sector and the transfer of technology to indigenous people
Small Scale Industry
Small scale industrial development, inevitably mostly agricultural based, can provide valuable employment opportunities which lead to the diversification of the economy In particular agro industry, which includes flour and oilseed milling and sugar crushing, can significantly add to the value of agricultural production
Recommendation
Small  scale  economic  activities  should  be  supported  by  the  provision  of  affordable start-up capital and medium term investment loans by the Government
8.2.8 Mineral resources
Mining can provide a major boost for the regional economy However it also has considerable potential to damage ground and surface water The full impact of mining will not be known until prospecting is completed and the method of mining is decided
Recommendation
Mining development should be encouraged through the granting of concessionary licences  However a condition of such licences  should be an environmental impact assessment of lhe proposed mine The licence fee should be sufficiently large to cover the repair of untoward damage resulting to the environment
82.9 Renewable energy
met from renewable
It is essential that the energy needs of the expanding pop
a catastrophic effect
sources to avoid further depletion of the forests w c i
h electrical energ)
te
on sod conservation Renewable energy sources could also
tolatM
demands   either   in   the   short   term   before   the   electnficatton
of
the
reg.
communities where transmission costs are prohibitive
Recommendation
u iv met by foel wcxxi
It is recommended that increasing demands for fuel wood s°u alternative
plantations, especially in deficit areas It is also propos 
should be
sources, including mini hydro, wind and solar and energy an
promoted by Government agencies
CbJp“ ’
r
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Planr SUMMARY
VOLUME I
fnfrastructure
Wtuer o»» rv
The present standards of public       supply and sanitation in the
r
watcr
□
basin arc inadequate and must be improved both to heln . J ,
of the
conditions of the population
mprove the health and living
Recommendation
A major programme of waler supply              „
is proposcd
io provide all eommumt.es with a public   er suppl
Mt
Pm“'Pta
-on per year up io 2W5
«
taxes or utility subscriber fees 
y Dorne out of cornnrnnity
/foods
The  condition  and  extent  of  the  existing  road  network  will  increasingly  act  as  a  constraint  on the movement of the population and of goods and will hinder economic expansion
Recommendation
A  major  programme  of  road  improvement  and  development  is  recommended  in  four phases at a total cost of nearly USS 270 million
E/ectnnty Transmission
The basin’s  present electricity  supply  comprises  5 diesel-powered generators  with a total capacity of some 4 MW and a hydroelectric plant of 5 N W capacity. Electricity demand in the basin is at present constrained by the lack of capacity and is expected to grow at about 6 ’ □ a year
It is recommended that a network of transmission 1,n*s
« fom1 the bass for a
of   the   basin   to   the   Interconnected   System,   whic   710     network   is   estimated   at rural electrification programme The total cost of the 71U un
USS 137 million spread over a period of W years
Many human diseases - tsetse, yellow fever, malaria. Onchocerciasis. Sc^°”Xls aS Qhi the economic and social worth of the lower basin Many o t * wl( increase in
Ration malaria will become perenmal mstead of seasonal, tsetse will eotdance with the use of animal traction
—SfnmettjgtiQ^
a ceases Diagnostic health
AH incoming settlers should be screened tor hazar ous 
wa tcr-relatcd
centres with the capacity to give firm diagnoses 
resource projects Health
diseases will need to be established in the viciruty °
of transmission between
training and improved sanitation will be requir >
lhal gchistosormasis could
m an and vector is to be broken The project s oil
Mosquito nets should be
inhabit its canals, which need to be lined as a P
Chipier 3
Bai^Akotju River Buin Imcp-attd De^e■opmcn, Mister PImEXECUTIVE summary
VOLUME I
treated with insecticide and be freely available Mosquito campaigns using DDT or other banned insecticides should be forbidden
8.3 Water Resources Development
8.3.1 Hydropower
General
The basin is endowed with plentiful potential hydropower resources, more than sufficient to meet the projected demands of the entire nation for many decades to come The decision on which sites  to develop will be a national decision and will depend on EELPA’s  overall generation expansion programme Studies  on hydropower in the basin have categonsed projects into small and medium/large
Small hydropower
One small hydropower project, Gumero, which could be developed in stages to meet the growing needs of the basin was found to be particularly attractive and has been studied at pre feasibility level
Recommendation
The Gumero scheme should be studied at feasibility level pending the decision on the development of medium/large hydro in the basin
Medium/large hydropower
Two medium hydro schemes, Baro and Geba A are each suitable for staged construction arJ appear to be competitive in comparison with other candidate schemes in other basins The Geba scheme has been taken through to pre-feasibility level study
Recommendation
Both   Baro   and supply the ICS
8.3.2 Irrigation schemes
Geba should be studied at feasibility level as potential schemes to
TGheeneimral gation study  clearly  indicates  that the potential for irrigated agnculture lies  in t e Gambela Plain where the ultimate net development area is estimated at 480,000 ha Fourteen basic systems that were considered and four survived the initial screening Of these
Alwero, is already in the course of development and three are new
Alwero 
. -ji ipppatg
The Alwero scheme, for which the Abobo dam is under construction, "
10,400 ha at a unit cost of USS 8,400/ha
Recommendation
nart of the
It is recommended that this project should be complet as
development plan
TAMS-ULG Buro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
Aft
*-''-EXECUTIVE summary
VOLUME I
S’ew  sC*<WCJiew   schemes  that  situated  on  the  right  bank  of  the  Baro  River  with  a  net  area  of
Of the three n 50,900 ha * damaging
Ddi
t he most economically attractive and the least enrircmentallv scheme is suitable for phased development and mixed privatc/public
iflvestinent-
^'Tk^bS   Right   Bank   irrigation   scheme   should   be   the   first   to   be   developed   and   should be studied at feasibility level before an approach is made to private investors
&JJ Multipurpose schemes
Irrigation and hydropower
Reservoir operation studies  show that the river regulation provided by  the hydro schemes increases  dry  season flows  so that the need for storage reservoirs  specifically  for the irrigation schemes  is  reduced In particular if both Baro and Geba hydro dams  were built there would be no need to construct the kang dam for the Bare Right Bank  irrigation scheme This  would save nearly USS 40 million and improve the IRR of the irrigation scheme by nearly 2%
Recommendation
The conjunctive use of hydro and imgation schemes  should be included in lhe proposed feasibility  studies  If hydro dams  are implemented before the downstream irrigation schemes then private investors are more likely to be attracted
Hydropower and flood control
The reservoirs associated with the best hydro schemes are too small to play a significant role
in the control of downstream floods. A simulation of the dual hydro/flood operation of one of
\ c ajgest reservoirs, the TAMS dam, showed that there was a large penalty in energy 
Qr egone which is unlikely to be compensated by the flood control benefit
Secondary benefits
^portant  secondary  benefits  such  as  fish  fanning,  tourism  and  leisure  can  be  derived  from er rcsource development projects
Consideration  of  secondary  benefits  should  be  included  in  the  appropriate  feasibility studies.
8 A     Institutional Development
Because the Master Plan involves dev<loPmenf. ^re. sP'dal arTan®cmtntS ** because some aspects of the planning 116 1x4
needed for institutional strengthening and suppo
Ueaional Governments, and
Commendation
Initially establish a basin-level Progf Subsequently an au
each of the four regional administrate
———
A kobo Rjvcr Basm Integrated Dm top men t Master Plan
Co-ordinating Unit t ’ ■ fPCLl) with sub’tinits in
5 garo-Akobo
Chapter 8EXECUTIVE summary
volume I
8.5 Further studies and investigations
S. 5.1 Water resources
Hydrology
Flood studies
The following surveys and studies are recommended
I Flood measurements to establish reliable rating curves for high flows
2. A study to analyse the flood problem in the Gambela plain
Groundwater
It is recommended that a groundwater test programme is initiated to provide detailed data on the viability  of groundwater supplies  for communities  and irrigation projects. A suitable location for the programme is in the Gambela Plain near Itang
8.5.2 Natural resources
Soil conservation
The Soil Conservation Project should expand its research in order that each soil group in the Master Plan area has  a set of runoff parcels  operating according to international research standards  One of the outputs  from the study  should be a soil conservation guide It should view soil conservation not solely from the view of technical efficiency, but should consider
View SOU UUHSCIvauuil IIVI ovivaj ...........................................* ............. —--------------- -
also the impact of different practices upon farmer gross margins, rodent populations. cultivation method
f'X - 20.000 scale aen. s^eys with ground con.ro! of d pnonO required to facilitate topographic and geological mapping
*
The following wildlife studies are recommended-ErfCtlTlVE SUMMARY
VOLUME I
Sur/ey and evaluation of bee keeping practices
2  survey on the effects of pesticides 
, loW technology beekeeping
06
Rene”’ ^  energy
The following studies are recommended
1  solar energy studies
2  wind resources estimate
3  investigation of geothermal energy potential
Fisheries
[t is  recommended that studies  are carried out to collect data on catch effort, exploitation patterns, and capture methods  Implement studies  to better understand the attitudes  of different ethnic groups towards fish. Use this information to target marketing.
8.5.3 Socio-economics
Population
The following further surveys and studies are required:
1 additional data on the movement of refugees
2. additional information on land use
3  additional data on morbidity, mortality and fertility
4  information on family planning activities
Socio-etknic groups analysis
The following further studies are recommended
Participatory rural and urban appraisal
An investigation into nutrition and food sources
assessments will form part of the feasibility studies ot any major e °pment project that will be implemented, as detailed elsewhere
Chapter S
Ul-G Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
71

Summery

Baro-Akobo River Basin Master Plan Summary

Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan Summary

The Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan is a comprehensive study commissioned by the Ethiopian Ministry of Water Resources to assess and plan the sustainable development of water, natural, and social resources in southwestern Ethiopia.

1. Introduction

The study area covers the Baro-Akobo basin in southwestern Ethiopia between latitudes 5° and 10° N and longitudes 33° and 36° E. The basin forms a joint border with Sudan and contains diverse topography ranging from highlands (2,000-3,000m) to lowlands (400-500m).

Key Characteristics:

Population: 2.2 million (1995), projected to reach 5.3 million by 2035
Ethnically diverse population with agriculture as the main economic activity
Rainy season lasts about five months (May-October)
Major rivers: Baro, Akobo, Gilo, and Alwero (tributaries of the White Nile)

2. Resource Base

2.1 Water Resources

The basin has abundant water resources with mean annual runoff estimated at 23,237 million cubic meters.

Basin	Catchment Area (km²)	Mean Annual Runoff (Mcm/year)
Baro	30,004	12,784
Akobo Upper	6,036	1,774
Akobo Lower	7,209	2,118
Gilo	12,815	3,224
Total	75,910	23,237

2.2 Natural Resources

Agriculture: Potential net irrigation area of 480,000 ha in Gambela Plain
Forestry: About 2.2 million ha of forests (more than half of Ethiopia's remaining forests)
Wildlife: Concentrated in savannahs of lower basin (Gambela National Park)
Mineral Resources: Gold, platinum, and iron ore deposits

3. Development Options

3.1 Hydropower Development

The basin has significant hydropower potential with realistic installed capacity of over 1,500 MW.

Project	Installed Capacity (MW)	Cost per kWh (US$)
Baro 1&2	210	0.036
Geba A 1&2	171	0.038
Birbir A&R	508	0.05

3.2 Irrigation Projects

Three priority irrigation projects identified:

Baro River Right Bank (50,900 ha net)
Upper Alvero/Dumbong (15,000 ha net)
Gilo Right Bank (47,000 ha net)

3.3 Other Development Areas

Soil conservation and catchment management
Improvement of rainfed agriculture
Livestock development
Fisheries and apiculture
Infrastructure development (roads, water supply, electricity transmission)

4. Master Plan Scenarios

Six development scenarios were evaluated with varying combinations of hydropower and irrigation development:

Scenario	Description	Total Investment (US$ million)
I	Base Development Plan	2,542
II	Base + Small hydropower & smallholder irrigation	3,134
V	Base + Large hydropower & commercial irrigation (recommended)	5,255

Recommended Scenario (V): Combines large-scale hydropower development for the national grid with commercial irrigation projects, providing the highest economic benefits while addressing environmental and social concerns.

5. Implementation Strategy

The implementation will be phased:

Phase 1 (First 5 years):

Establish a basin-level Programme Co-ordinating Unit
Complete feasibility studies
Implement immediate soil conservation and agricultural improvements

Phase 2:

Establish autonomous Baro-Akobo Basin Water Management Authority
Implement major water resource projects
Continue multi-sectoral rural developments

6. Key Recommendations

Immediate Priorities:

Complete the ongoing Alvero/Abobo Dam irrigation project
Implement soil conservation and catchment protection measures
Improve rainfed agriculture practices

Medium-Term Priorities:

Develop Baro Right Bank irrigation scheme (feasibility study first)
Implement Geba A and Baro hydropower projects
Expand infrastructure (roads, water supply, electricity transmission)

The Master Plan provides a comprehensive framework for sustainable development of the Baro-Akobo basin, balancing economic growth with environmental protection and social welfare over a 40-year planning horizon.