Summary of the Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan - Annex 3A: Population Aspects
Overview
This document is part of the Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan Study conducted by TAMS-ULG for the Ethiopian Ministry of Water Resources. Annex 3A focuses on socio-economic aspects, specifically population dynamics, including past trends, present conditions, and future projections for the Baro-Akobo River Basin in Ethiopia.
Key Sections
1. Introduction
- Defines the demographic study's scope: evaluating present population, past evolution, and future projections.
- Methodology: Uses the "components method" (natality, mortality, migration) for projections.
- Data limitations: Relies on 1984 census data due to unavailability of 1994 census results during the study.
2. Institutional Aspects
- Data sources: Central Statistical Authority (CSA), Ministry of Health, NGOs, UNHCR, National Urban Planning Institute (NUPI).
- Ethiopia's National Population Policy (1993) aims to harmonize population growth with resource capacity, targeting reduced fertility and improved welfare.
3. Analysis
3.1 Population Characteristics
- 1993 Population: ~2.2 million in the project area (75,912 km²), with densities ranging from 7 persons/km² (Gambela) to 55 persons/km² (Oromiya).
- Past Evolution (1984-1993): Significant population fluctuations due to refugees (Sudanese) and resettled people (from northern Ethiopia). Gambela's population doubled due to these events.
- Age/Sex Structure: Young population (median age ~17), with high dependency ratios.
3.2 Urbanization
- Urban Population (1993): 8.1% of total, concentrated in small towns (<20,000 people).
- Future Urban Growth: Projected to reach 15% by 2035, with Gambela as the largest town (~151,000 people).
3.3 Fertility
- High Fertility: Total Fertility Rate (TFR) ~7.5 in rural areas, ~6.4 in urban areas (1990).
- Future Projections: TFR decline targeted to 4.0 by 2015 (policy goal), but slower decline assumed in projections.
3.4 Mortality
- High Mortality: Life expectancy ~53 years (1990), with infant mortality ~105‰.
- AIDS Impact: Rising HIV prevalence, projected to increase adult mortality significantly, especially in urban areas.
3.5 Migration
- Past Migration: Large-scale resettlement (1985) and refugee influx (Sudanese) disrupted population patterns.
- Future Trends: Rural-to-urban migration expected to intensify, with Gambela as a major destination.
4. Conclusions and Implications
- Population Growth: Projected to increase from 2.2 million (1995) to 5.3 million (2035), with densities rising to ~70 persons/km².
- Challenges: High population pressure on land, environmental degradation, and urban service demands.
- Refugees: Continued presence could exacerbate local pressures, especially in Gambela.
5. Need for Further Studies
- Updated census data (1994) required for accurate projections.
- Detailed studies on land use, health, fertility determinants, and urban development strategies recommended.
Key Data Tables
Indicator | 1995 | 2035 Projection |
---|---|---|
Total Population | 2.2 million | 5.3 million |
Urban Population (%) | 8.3% | 14.7% |
Density (persons/km²) | 29.1 | 69.5 |
Total Fertility Rate (rural) | 7.5 | 5.8 |
Life Expectancy (years) | 53-56 | 56-62 |