& FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA MINISTRY OF WATER RESOURCES ■ I BARO-AKOBO RIVER BASIN INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT MASTER PLAN STUDY | ■ tr'- v.’ FINAL REPORT VOLUME Ilf MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT MAY 1997 Ar ; ULG CONSULT Al ;T: LTD t z.-FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA MINISTRY OF WATER RESOURCES BARO-AKOBO RIVER BASIN INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT MASTER PLAN STUDY VOLUME III MASTER PLAIN DEVELOPMENT TAMS-ULG Bara-Akabo River Basin Integrated DevelopmentIINDEX OF VOLUMES AND ANNEXES Volume I:................................. —* EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Volume II:RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS Volume III:........................................... Master Plan Development Volume IV;PROJECT AREA MAPS Volume V„............................................Pre feasibility studies ANNEXES Annex 1A Climatology 1. WATER RESOURCES Annex IB Hydrology Annex IC Annex ID ................... Ground Water Flood Studies Annex IE... .......... Reservoir Operation Studies Annex IF .................................. Sediment Studies .Annex 1G Water Resources Cosl Estimating Annex IH ............................................Irrigation Projects Annex II Water Supply Projects -Annex]] Hydropower Projects 2. NATURAL RESOURCES Annex 2A Land Evaluation Annex 2B Soils and Soil Conservaiion .Annex 2C Geology .Annex 2DMineral Resources Annex 2EForestry .Annex 2F Wildlife Annex 2G Tourism Annex 2H Apiculture Annex 21 Agriculture Annex 2J Annex 2K Fisheries Annex 2L 3. SOCIO-ECONOMICS Annex 3 A Renewabl e E nergy ... Livestock Population Aspects Annex jB Socio-Ethnic Groups .Analysis Annex 3C Economic Infrastructures Annex 3D Social Infrastructures Annex 3E Economic and Financial Analysis •Annex 3F Institutional Support < ENVIRONMENT Annex 4 Environment TAMS-ULG Bum-Akobo River Basin latefratrd DevelopmenI Master Plan■MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT VOLl'ME III VOLUME III MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT 1 'V M > I I ili. ItjiiMfiF RitiitHi 'Mia ■vtrr MirMASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT VOLUME III 1 INTRODUCTION1 Background Project Area Genera/.. C/imafe.................. /fryers..................... /n/rasrrucfwre......... CONTENTS 1 ............ 1 J 4 ■ ■■ ■I r ?■ - - ***** - F r ** f ■ 4- * 4 1 2 f F a F ■ Popu/anon.. ...— Land Use and Cropping............. Critical Issues. F F ■* F F F r a +2 ......... *.*. ..2 3 .............. 3 ..... .. 4 2, IN VE N TO RY F PRO JE CTS................ .............. ......... ...... . *—-* • * *********** * ****.....•• 2.1 General 22 2.2.1 2.2 2 2.2.3 2.2 4 2.2.5 2.2.6 2.2.7 23 2.3.1 2.3.2 2.3.3 2.3.4 2.4 2 4.1 2.4.2 2.4.3 2.5 2.5.1 2.5.2 26 2.7 2.7.1 2.7.2 Food production .... /nfroduc/ion ...... < ............................................. /mprovement ro rainfed agricu/fure ............ /mgafed Agriculture........................... .... .......... Apiculture.......................................... — /Meries......... ....................................... £iw>sfodL.»<.......................................... ..... ...... ylgro-indusfries........ ~...................... ........... . Natural Resource Projects......... CoftAment managemen/ and PtToresfcnvon. Bfi/d h/e and Tounsm........... Mineral resources,.... F F - I BenewaL/e energy....... .......... . Social Infrastructure JFoter supp/y._........................ Hea/fh............................... Hoads. ........... ...................... Hydro power Generation, ....________ _____ Basin Transmission system .. Mining___ _____ a____ _____ Environmental Sector Operational Directive. *4 4 4 4 4 e - - - 4-4- F F - s 4-4 4-+ F F - - - 4-4- - -a ft .j.B.4-4 *t4 *4 4 4 F **■■a■* — ■ ■ r r *F F + + + - Adverse Zmpacrs andritem Midgarion,.,.......... . 3. INTEGRATED WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT 3.1 General. 3.Z.2 JJ.2 3 A3 32 33 3.3J 3.3.2 /nfrckAr cfion.. w.......... . „.. 5wr/ace water resources. Shorr/isfed schemes........ The HEC-5 Model System Model for the Baro River Basin /nrroducnort..... +....... ,......... . r //ydropowe r and irrigarion.................. ■ ** b 5 - ■■■- .17 17 17 .... 15 ......... IS 20 .....20 20 TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plin ■**.MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT VOLUME IU 3.3. 3 Combined hydropower operation...................................................................... 2i 3 4 System Model for the Alwero River Basin ...................................................................... 22 3,5 System Model for the Gilo River Basin .............................................................................. 22 4 MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT.............. ....................... .. .. ■■ I I 4,1 Main Planning Considerations............................................................................................. 24 J 2 Base Development Plan...................................................................................................... 24 4.2.1 Summary...........................................................................................................24 4.2.2 Catchment management.................................................................. ............................. 25 4.2.3 Ramfed agriculture........................................................................................................ 25 4.2.4 Natural Resources......................................................................................................... 25 4.2.5 Infrastructure................................................ ..................... ................................ 25 4.2.6 A fwero irrigation scheme............................................................................................. 26 4 3 Large Wat er Resources Project s..................................................................................... 26 4.3.1 General............................... ............... ...................................... ............... 26 4.3.2 Irrigation Projects........................................................................................................... 27 4.3.3 Large and medium Hydropower Projects..................................................... .. 28 4.3.4 Small Projects............... ................................................................................................ 30 4.3.5 Summary of Decision process.................................... .................................................. J / 4.4 Planning Scenarios..................................................................................................................... 33 4.4.1 Introduction.................................................................................................................... 33 4.4.2 Base Development Plan - Scenario I.............................................. ..... 33 4 4.3 Scenario II - Hydropower for Basin - Small Holder Irrigation.......................... 35 4.4.4 Scenario III - Hydropower for Basin - Commercial Irrigation....................................... 35 4.4.5 Scenario TV- Hydropower for Basin and ICS -Smail Holder Irrigation........................36 4.4.6 Scenario V - Hydropower for Basin and ICS - Commercial Irrigation..................... . 36 4.4.7 Scenario VI - Fast track hydropower and commercial irrigation................................. 38 4 5 Selected Scenario......................................... .................................................................. .......... 38 4.5.1 Total investments......................................................................................................... 38 4.5.2 Base development................ ...................... .. ........................... ..... 38 4.5.3 Hydropower..................... .... ................. ...... .......................................................... ,.,..3S 4.5.4 Irrigation......................................................................................................... 39 4.5.4 Selected scenario..............................................................................................39 4 6 Waler Use and Allocation.......................................................................................................... 41 4 6.1 Irrigated Agriculture ..................... ................... .......................... ........ ................... ........... 41 4.6.2 Hydropower. ............... ................................................... .......... .................................41 4.6.3 Water supply.................. .......................................................................................... 41 4.6.4 Environmental demand........... ....................... .................. ....................................... 41 4.6.5 Water balance........................................................................... ............................... 41 5. RECOMMENDED MASTER PLAN........................................................................................... 42 5 1 Master Plan Description....... ................................. ...................................................... 42 5.1.1 Scenario I............................................................................................................... 42 5.1.2 Scenario V...,................... ....................... ......................................................... .,..42 513 Total cost................................................................................................................ 43 5 2 Logical Framework Analysis Matrix............... .......... ....................................................... 44 TAMMJLG Baro-Akobo River Buin Integrated Development Miner PlanMASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT 6. INSTITUTIONAL SUPPORT .AND IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGY VOLUME in 61 6.2 6.2.1 6.2.2 62.3 Introduction....................... .............................................. *.................. ’.............’........ Institutional Support....... ........................................ —..................................................... Proposed Project Interventions and Possible Timescale-------------...................... Project Implementation at Federal and Regional Level................................. -......... Role for Basin Co-ordinating/Management Unit - Short and medium term ...49 ...49 .. 49 ...49 ...50 ...51 6.2.4 6.3 Further developments................................................... -■ ...51 Implementation Strategy........... ............................ ■■.......... ...51 6.3 I Constraints........ ............................................................. ...51 6.3.2 6.3.3 6.3.4 6.3.5 Management aspects of project implementation............ ■ - - 4 ...51 Implementation of principal project interventions ...51 Agency for municipal and rural civil works............ ...51 Community Participation................................................ ...51 7. PRE-FEASIBILITY STUDIES------------- 8. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FURTHER STUDIES AND INVESTIGATIONS...51 TABLES Table 2-1 Road development programme....................................... .................... -12 ....SI Table 3-1 Summary of surface water resources ...................................... ........................................ -18 Table 4-1 Scenario 1, Base Development Plan, Investment Schedule................................. ............... 34 Table 4-2 Hydropower for the Basin, Smallholder Irrigation, Scenario FL, Costs (USS million) ............................................................................................................................................. 36 Table 4-3 Hydropower for the Basin, Commercial Irrigation Projects, Scenario HI, Costs (USS million)............................................... ..... .............................................................................36 Table 4-4 Hydropower for the Basin and ICS, Smallholder Irrigation, Scenario FV, Costs (USS million)................................................................................. .. ............................................. 36 Table 4-5 Hydropower for the Basin and ICS, Commercial Irrigation Projects, Scenario V, Costs (USS million)..................... ........................................... ................. „................... ................ 38 Table 4-6 Maximum Investment Scenario, Scenario VI, Costs (USS million).......................................38 Table 4-7 Water balance ......................................................................................................................41 Table 5-1 Master Plan Investment Schedule, Sum of Scenario 1 & V, Costs (USS millinn) 43 FIGURES Figure 2-1 Figure 2-2 Figure 2-3 Figure 2-4 Figure 2-5 Figure 4.1 Figure 4,2 Figure 4-3 Land Capacity and Farming System............ ........ ............................................. ........... 6 Potential Irrigation Projects........................... ........................................ ............................$ Water Supply Programme.............. ...................... ............ ............... jj Roads Development Programme......................................... ...............,............................ j ] Dam Sites.................................................................................t jy Implementation Programme of the Alwero Scheme ........................................................26 Implementation of Bare Right Bank Irrigation Project...................................................... 28 Alternative 1 and 2, Implementation Program for Medium & Large Hydropower Projects......................................................... ................................................. Figure 4-1 Implementation Programme for Small Hydropower Projects. Figure 4-5 Master Plan Development Decision Tree............................. Figure 4-6 Base Development Plan, Scenario I................................... TAMS-ULG Barit-Akobo EUvtr Bruin Integrated Develdpmeai Master Plan ...29 ...30 .32 ...34MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT VOLUME G] Figure 4-7 Scenario II, Hvdropower for the Basin, Smallholder Irrigation............... . ............. 3fi Figure 4-8 Scenario III. Hydropower for the Basin. Commercial Imgation Projects Figure 4-9 Hydropower for Basin and ICS, Smallholder Imgation, Scenario IV 3e Figure 4-10 Selected Scenario for the Master Plan, Scenario V............................................... .38 Figure 4-11 Maximum Investment Scenario, Scenario \1 ........................... .38 Figure 5 1 Summary of the Investment Schedule of the Proposed Master Plan (I & V) 44 Figure 5-2 Mas ter Plan Development....................................................................... ............. .... 44 TAMS-ULG Buro-Akobo River Bain Integrated Development Master PlanMASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT VOLUME III 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background The Et hiopian Highlands is one of t he worl d’s most important wat ersheds sup plying two greal rivers, the White and Bl ue Nile Th e riv ers that form the basi n of the project area, the Baro, the Akobo, the Alwero and the Gilo drain into the White Nile This Master Plan Study, one of twelve to be commissioned by the Government of Ethiopia, will assist Ethiopia to determine lhe development potential of the Baro-Akobo basin, The Water Resources Development Authority signed a contract with TAMS-ULG for the Baro Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan Project in June 1995. The studies were initiated in July 1995 In accordance with the Terms of Reference for the Consultancy Services, the output of this study includes 1 A review of the existing data base 2 A portfolio of prioritised development projects 3 A Master Plan for the integrated development of the basin 4. Information and data required for co-operative development undertakings with downstream countries 5 Prefeasibility level studies of selected high-priority water resources projects. Volume II presents the studies of the resources of the project area and the development options available over a range of sectors, but with particular emphasis on water resources driven development The essential output of the studies reported in Volume II is a range of economically viable development projects and programmes that can form the building blocks of the Integrated Master Plan for the project area. The evolution of lhe Master Plan and its elaboration into a phased programme of development is the subject of this volume Volume III. 1.2 Project Area 1.2.1 General The Baro-Akobo basin lies in the south-west of Ethiopia between latitudes 5° 31' and 10° 54* north and longitude 33° and 36° 17 east The Master Plan area, which is shown in the various maps of Volume IV, covers an area of some 75,912 km2 The western, north-western and south-western boundaries of lhe area are formed by the Sudanese border, while the north-east, cast and south-east borders are formed by the waiershed of the basin which lies within the administrative boundaries of Regions 6. 4 and 1! Region 12 is wholly contained within the TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Baiio Integrated Development Master Plan I Chapter Imaster plan DEVELOPMENT VOLUME m project area These are Benshangul and Gumuz, Gambela, Oromiya and the Southern Natrons and National it its Peoples’ Regions. The eastern pan of the project area consists of the liilly upland areas of the Filawrariy Mekonnen Plateau and the Masongo Range This area, which forms the upper catchment of the basin, is bounded m the west by a senes of escarpments which fall steeply to the high [llubabor Plain From the base of the escarpments, the plain descends westward to the low Ulubabor Plain, which inclines gently westward and is prone to inundation and waterlogging during the wet season from June to September 1.2.2 Climate The Baro-Akobo basin is a particularly well watered region of Ethiopia Gore in the project area has an average annual total rainfall of over 2.200 mm and most of the upper basin has an annual total of more lhan 1,800 mm A significant proportion of rain failing during storms is lost by run-off and the occasional light rain falling out of season when soil and foliage are hot is lost by evaporation Overall the "effective" rainfall is about 60% during the rainy season down to nil in the dry season This gives an effective average rainfall of 750 mm annually in the lowlands rising to about 1.250 mm in the highland 1.2.3 Rivers The major rivers within the Baro-Akobo basin are Baro and its tributaries. (Birbir, Geba. Sore), Alwero, Gilo with its tributaries (Gecheb, Bitun, Beg) and AJcobo with its tributary Kashu The general direction of the rivers is from the east to the west The rivers rise in the highlands (2000-3500m) situated in the east of the area and flow to the Gambela plain (500m) in the west 1.2.4 Infrastructure The Baro-Akobo area is traversed by a network of all-weather roads, some 1,058 km in all, but the road density is low compared with many African countries The region is connected to Addis Ababa by scheduled air services to Metu, Gambela, Dembidolo and Mizan Tcferi The roads Addis-Gambela, Addis-Asosa, Jimma-Mizan and Gore-Tepi are all well maintained, al- weather roads The Gambcla-Dembidolo road, as others on the lower plains, is in need of maintenance Numerous smaller roads, accessible only in the dry season, cross the area The western part of the area is least well served by roads. Electrification is not well developed within the study area with electric power largely confined to the towns. Generation is from small diesel power plants of 15-30 kW A 5 MW hydroelectric power station was built at Sor in 1990 this is connected to Gambela via a 66 kV transmission line Provision of town water supply is underdeveloped and in rural areas virtually non-existent with water frequently being earned long distances, by women and children. Rivers, used as water sources, art becoming increasingly polluted by soap and human waste, particularly downstream from refugee camps, local ed at Bonga on the Baro River, Pugnido on the Gilo River and Dima on the Akobo River TAMS-VLG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan Chapter 1MASTER PLAN DEVELO PMENT VOLUME ni 7.2.5 Population Ethnically the region is exceedingly heterogeneous with Anuak, Majang er, Nucr. A nfilo, Kome. Masongo. I.onge, Opuo. Oromo, Amhara. Gimira, Sh ekocha, Bench. Gidame, Me enit, Mao and Beni-Shangul people all inhabiting the project area Amongst these people the Nuer, Me’enit and Shekocha people are semi-nomadic pastoralists while most other groups are sedentary agriculturists or hunter-gatherers The total present population in the basin is estimated at about 2.2 million people of which the rural population accounts for about 92% and the remainder is classified as urban The basin population is unevenly distributed. Just 9% of the total population inhabits the lower basin which accounts for 42% of the total basin surface area and much of which is subject to flooding The area, which includes the Gambela report and the northern pan of the southern region up to Gesha and Shasha Weredas, has a very low density of population, with less than 15 persons per km1 There is a zone of medium population density in to the Western fringe of the Upper basin, from the North, including the Asosa region to the centre including a major part of Oromiya towards Sigmo Wercda to the North and Gesha Tinishu Wereda to the South Oromiya in the central part of the upper harin which accounts for 31 percent of the land has 60 percent of the population 1.2.6 Land Ust and Cropping The study area can be broken down into • flood plain and lower piedmont below the 500 m contour • the escarpment zone • the highland zone above about 2,000 m The total cultivated crop area in the Baro-Akobo basin is at least S23,O8O ha, with 97% of this area falling in the upper basin lllubabor and Welega together account for three quarters of the total cropland This is the highland zone and reflects the high density of arable fanners on the land above 1,800 m This conforms very closely to the national average as 95% of the total cultivated area in Ethiopia is in the highlands Nearly all farmers practice mixed farming with rotation of crops Cereals dominate the crop range accounting for 75 % of crop area, the proportion is somewhat greater in Kaffa, Asosa and the lower basin and less in Welega. In the two largest zones, lllubabor and Welega, maize is the most popular cereal but in Asosa and the lower basin, sorghum displaces maize, perhaps on account of its greater reliability under drought conditions, Teff, the source of the staple food of the highland people, is particularly important in lllubabor with more than a quarter of the crop area, but much less so in other zones. The other crop of importance is coffee, occupying more than a quarter of crop area in Welega, but also significant in lllubabor, Kefficho-Shekicho and Bench-Maji, but very little or nil in other zones This crop is the only cash crop of importance in the area at present A wide range of very minor crops is produced in the area mainly for local consumption and to enrich the TAMS-IHLG Baro-Akata River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan 3 Chapter !master plan development volume m diet There are two tea and two coffee estates established as state farms and two estates neaj Abobo ptoducing cotton The Upper Escarpment is mainly forest but this is becoming under increasing pressure from farmers tnanv of whom are practising shifting cultivation This is leading to rapid and uncontrolled depletion of forest cover in the catchment. Between 1973 and 1988 forest cover in the study area fell from a total of 70,000 km: to 35,000 km*, this rate of depletion has almost certainly continued from that dale until the present. On the Gambela plain below 500 m only about six years in ten have a dependable rainfall of at least four months and sufficient to support good yields of most annual crops From the rainfall data for liang, crops would fail almost one year in two but this more critical situation may be the consequence of less reliable data rather than less reliable rainfall .Above about 1,000 m the dependable growing season foi annual crops is very reliable and failures would occur only about one year in twenty, and even longer than that above 2,000 m In an average season and better, a second rainfed crop should yield well during a dependable growing season of seven or more months. 1.3 Critical Issues Cereal production in Ethiopia is showing a long-term decline on a per capita basis With 80% of the population engaged in agriculture, Ethiopia is unable to feed itself with grain Shortfalls are being made up with imports The study area is frequently seen as an area of great, unrealised potential, under-populated by Ethiopian standards, and with plenty of land and water Also the Russian Study has demonstrated that the technical hydropower potential of the Lower Basin alone is in excess of 1,500 MW The gross potential area available for irrigation amounts to about 600,000 ha. from wiiich a net area of 483,000 ha can be developed for irrigation The highlands in the project area are an area of good rainfall with the potential to produce an grain surplus with improved agricultural practice The lower plain, with more erratic rainfall is an area of vulnerability Overall, the area should be capable of feeding the 2.2 million people living within it. but wiih population expected to grow to 5 3 million people there would be need for huge changes to agriculture, leading to a massive yield increase, for the basin to remain self sufficient in food supply. Irrigation reduces the risk foT the farmer; but, if this is all it does, it is not cost effective Because of the high cost of engineering interventions, in order for them io be effective, they have to be coupled with greaily increased productivity, with higher value, non-gjain, crops So one is not looking at a situation where one is providing water to get a subsistence fanner over a dry period, one is looking at a change in the entire farming system The soil erosion is a severe risk to the Master Plan, yet National Policy in factors that contribute to land misuse is weak, land tenure will be addressed as an issue to reverse the soil degradation as well as to encourage private investors to irrigation commercial farming. TAMS-LLG Bano-Akobo River Basin lntegriled Development Muter Plan Chapter 1MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT VOLUME Ill INVENTORY OF PROJECTS 2.1 General The development projects available in the key sectors in the project area are discussed in some detail in chapter 4 of Volume II and in the associated Annexes The more important project inventories are summarised in this section as a precursor to the formulation of development scenarios. 2.2 Food production 2.2.1 Introduction Not only is the basin $ population expected to grow from 2 2 million to 5 3 million by the year 2035. but the national target is to increase per capita food consumption by one third from 6 6MJ day to 8 SMJ/day In order to provide this additional food, production in the basin must increase by 300% in the next 35 years if the basin is to remain self-sufficient This increase can only be achieved by improving farming techniques and increasing the land area under cultivation The present land use of the total basin area of 75,912 km2 is as foUows: It can be seen that the area presently under cultivation amounts to only 8% of the total area. This study has shown that the total area that is potentially suitable far agriculture to be 32,800 km , or 43% of the total In the sections that follow developments are proposed that will more 1 1 than satisfy regional food demands which involve the cultivation of some 9,200 km of new land, so that by the year 2035 half the potentially suitable land will be cultivated 2.2.2 Improvement to rainfed agricuitu re Introduction The great majority of the basin’s food supply is provided at present by rainfed agriculture, w hich at present occupies a total area of some 610,000 ha The increase in food production by means of the improvement and extension of rainfed agriculture in the project area is of TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin In unrated Development Master Plan 5 Chapter 2master plan development VOLUME hj fundamental importance and has been shown in these studies to be attractive economically with internal rates of return in excess of 33 6% (sec Vol IL Chapter 5. Section 5 3.1). The allocation of resources to this sector is thus justified economically and will cover the food needs of the area white creating a tradable surplus, thus increasing rural cash income The tw0 components of the project comprise extension of the cultivated area and improvement of farming techniques Extension Analyses of population, farming systems, population support capacity of the land, current land use and land capability had indicated that the total potential of land suitable for rainfed agriculture amounts to about 2 8 million hectares The distribution of this area by farming system is shown on the land capability- map. Figure 2-1 It will be noted that the potential for improved rainfed agriculture is predominantly in the Highlands The recommended development project for rainfed agriculture starts from the existing area of about 610,000 ha and builds up to just over 1.4 million ha over the 35 year planning horizon, that is to about half the potential area of suitable land, an overall increase of over 200% The average increase thus amounts to a little under 23,000 ha per year, which is considered realistic. When fully developed, the main crops will consist of maize, sorghum, leff, pulses and coffee, which together will account for over 90% of the developed area Improvement Improvement to fanning techniques, which include the more widespread use of fertilisers, improved soil conservation and the use of higher yield seed vaneties will increase the productivity will result in greatly increased crop yields For instance the yield of maize is projected to increase, by these means, from 1.28 t/ha to 4 Otha Conc/wsion The improvements to rainfed agriculture that have been proposed are realistic and cannot only meet the food demands of the population but can produce a surplus for export Total food production should increase from an annual production of 514,000 tonnes at present to 3 9 million tonnes in 2035. 2.13 irrigated Agriculture General The studies have shown that there is a large potential for irrigated agriculture in the Gambela Plain in the lowei basin Excluding the western portion subject to persistent flooding, the gross potential area available amounts to about 600,000 ha from which a net area of 480.000 ha can be developed for irrigation This includes low-lying areas with suitable soil characteristics that can be economically protected from flooding The location of the potential irrigation areas is shown in Figure 2-2 A screening study was undertaken covering ihe whole area of irrigation potential in which 14 irrigation projects were defined and ranked Of these 14 schemes the four most attractive were identified as follows; TAMS-ULG Bnro-Akobo River Bixin Integrated Pevelupnml Muter Plan Chapter 1Baro-Akoixa River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan Project Figure 2-1 LAND CAPACITY and FARMING SYSTEMS IT 7‘ TAMS Consultants. Inc (U SA.) and □LG Consultants Ltd. (U.K ) For the Ministry of WHler Resources of the Government of Ethiopia Produced on Sources G1S Filename October 17, 1996 Modi led from Soil and SuitaMty Maps. MoA(1987) leap apr 13’ 35- W3ETHIOPIA Baro-Akot>o River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan Project Figure 2-2 POTENTIAL IRRIGATION PROJECTS > Oem Sri* ’L Z 1 4 5 4 7. I For the Mnistry of Water Resources of the Government of Ethiopia Produced on October 17/1996 Sources TAMS-UIG; AROCOfSoyuz; Topo (1: 250 000) GlS Filename: damsrte.ftpfMASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT VOLUME ra Locution Bare River. Right Bank gravity fed from Itang Dant 4lwero Project, fed by gravity for the Abobo Dam under construction Upstream Alwero Project, fed by gravity from the Dumbong Dam Gilo River, Right Bank, fed by gravity from the Gilo 2 Dam Total Net Area (hi) 50,900 10.400 15.000 47,000 123 JOO This total net area amounts to about 25% of the full potential and is about the maximum area that can be put under irrigation within the 35 year planning period, assuming an implementation rate building up to 4,000 ha/year, a rate of development difficult to achieve The location of the four projects selected for Master Planning purposes are shown on figure 2-2. The economic studies given in Volume II and Annex 1H of irrigated agriculture gives the following results Atwero/Abobo Dam Project (Ongoing). This project gives an economic rate of return of 11 4% assuming a mix of food crops for local consumption and higher value crops for export out of the basin This economic analysis included the cost of the completed Abobo Dam and the main canal These are in fact sunk costs and if these sunk costs are ignored, the rate of return for completing the imgation project rises to 25%. Ahvero/Dubong Project This project for rice monoculture at a cropping intensity of 200% gives an economic rate of return of 10% Boro Right Bank/ltang Project This project, which comprises a phased development of four sub-projecis, will produce a mix of food crops, small holder sugar, cotton and some commercial sugar The overall economic rate of return is estimated at 12 6%. Commercial Orientated Agriculture This agricultural scenario was also tested on the Baro Right Bank/ltang Dam Project but this time with a significantly increased commercial sugar operation This gave an economic internal rate of return of 18 % Conclusions The conclusions that may be drawn from these results are - 1 The ongoing Alwero/Abobo Irrigation project should be completed It is recommended that this be given a priority since it has a high rate of return and it provides Lhe earliest possible significant increase to food security in the area 2 Dev elopment of rice monoculture in large irrigation projects is not economically justified and should not be included in the Master Plan TAMS-ULG BaroAkabo River Basin Integrated Development .Muter Plan 9 Chapter 2MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT 3 New large irrigation development including a substannal proportion of commercial estai agriculture is economically justified and private sector involvement should be activ^ sought and encouraged for this purpose 4 New large lmgarion projects without significant commercial involvement arc margin economically, but may be justified in the interests of food security objectives A realistic, but still ambitious rate of implementation of irrigated agriculture would be 2000 ha'year It is recognised that in certain circumstances it is possible to achieve faster rates than this, but this is considered an appropriate figure to adopt for planning purposes For ibis development strategy, the first two projects have been identified as the most appropriaie namely the Baro-Rivet Right Bank and the Alwero-Abobo projects These two projects together can be developed over the planning penod ai an implementation rate of about 2000 ha/vear At full development these two irrigation projects combined will produce over 80,000 tonnes of maize and 20,000 tonnes of sorghum each year, in addition to 240,000 tonnes of sugar cane and 33,000 tonnes of cotton 2.2.4 Apiculture The proposed apicultural projects are aimed at assisting honey hunters and bee keepers to exploit bees in a more susiamable and economically beneficial way. The establishment of a beekeepers co-operative will improve the marketing of honey and wax These projects are modest in scope and investment but will secure the present production and enhance its value 2.2.5 Fisheries Insufficient data exists for the formulation of any specific fisheries projects other than those of data collection However, once such data are available, the Master Plan envisages future developments as. • development of capture fisheries in the basin’s rivers • development of fisheries in the future reservoirs - hydropower and irrigation - recommended by this Master Plan • development of aquaculture Of these capture fisheries is the most attractive initial development, followed by the exploitation of reservoirs As an example of the contribution fisheries in reservoirs can make, a combined hydropower and irrigation development of Bare and Itang reservoirs could produce over 1,200 tonnes of fish per year Although the potential for aquaculture is great, so arc the constraints and the development of aquaculture is not foreseen until the demand for fish approaches the supply from rivers and reservoirs. 2.2.6 Livestock Livestock projects are primarily aimed at improving the health of animals and improving their productivity Specific projects recommended are as follows; • improvement of draught cattle • promotion of small scale milk production • dairy goat development TAMS-ULG Biro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Muter Plan ” Chapter 1 ]OVOLUME III 1> LAS TER PLAN DEVELOPMENT • smallholder poultry improvement All these projects will require the collection of additional data Livestock projects are inextricably linked to agricultural developments, as agriculture depends heavily on the draught power of cattle for ploughing and carting, and livestock will increasingly depend on agriculture for a secure source of food 2.2.7 Agro-industria Commercial sugarcane factory If the large-scale irrigation projects summarised in 2.2 3 above are developed, particularly the Baro scheme, sufficient sugar cane will be produced to justify the construction of a commercial sugar cane factory A factory with a 4,500 t/day capacity, together with an ethanol plant, would costjusi over SI million Small scale development The products identified and proposed for manufacture by small-scale agro-industries in the project area are those for which value added can be gained by local processing These could comprise cereals milling, oilseeds milling and sugar cane crushing Details of such developments are given in the appendices of Annex 3E, 2.3 Natural Resource Projects 2.3.1 Catchment management and Reforestation The magnitude of annual soil loss in Ethiopia is currently estimated to be between 1,5 to 2.0 billion tonnes The consequence is that agriculture productivity declines of about 1 percent per annum Although the Baro-Akobo basin is by no means the worst example of soil loss, nevertheless land degradation occurs in various forms throughout the project area, including water-caused soil erosion, chemical, physical and biological degradation, Soil erosion reduces plant productivity by decreasing soil depth, thereby reducing the capacity of sites to store water for plant use, and by selectively removing clays and the fine material that absorb soil nutrients essential to plant processes The catchment management programme proposed consists of two approaches 1 Withdrawing seriously effected soils and steep land from agricultural use and implementing a reforestation programme in these areas, and 2 undertaking soil conservation practices The main soil conservation practices proposed include • Development of grass strips in undertaking land planted to annual crops • Construction bunds in rolling terrain in annual crops, • Terracing in steeper terrain TAMS-llLG Baru-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Muter Plan Chapter 2MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT VOLUME in The total cost of the programme including studies and inventory work is estimated at about USS 115 million through the 35 year planning period 2. J. 2 Hr id life and Tourism Wildlife has declined dramatically in the Baro-Akobo basin in recent decades and is now in a state of crisis. Although the benefits of a healthy wildlife population are intangible, wildlife is a pre-condition of the development of tourism Because of a lack of data, the projects recommended in the Wildlife Report (Annex F) are confined to data collection and planning studies. The recommendations of the report on Tourism are designed to promote 'ecotourisnf and to provide the conditions in which private investment in tourist facilities would eventually become attractive Two projects are specifically proposed, one at Lake Bishan Wak’a Hayk in the upper basin and one, the development of wildlife and canoe safaris, in the lower basin 2.3.3 Mineral resources The Raro-Akobo basin is blessed with many mineral resources, mostly in the upper basin At present there is a little small-scale mining of gold, platinum and iron ore Five development options have been identified, for gold mining at DuL Bunuya-Ankori, Tulu Kapi and in the Akobo basin, and for platinum at Yubdo All these projects would be suitable for investment by the private sector. However no data is available for the prioritisation or detailed planning of these or other projects: further exploration work is required at potential sites before the viability of exploitation can be assessed 2.3.4 Renewable energy The study identified an urgent need for the development of renewable energy in the basin so that future energy demands can be met on a sustainable basis. In the absence of sufficient data for the formulation of specific plans the following sector plans are recommended: • establishment of foclwood plantations to supply sufficient fuel to meet the demands of a growing population and so to protect the forests. • development of local electricity supplies by means of mini and micro hydropower, wind and solar energy' • development of biogas plants to provide energy and fertiliser • integration of all of the above Further studies are required to develop specific projects 2.4 Social Infrastructure 2- 4.1 Water supply A programme of interventions in the water supply sector in the Baro-Akobo basin has been developed io meet the needs of the population which is projected to grow from the present number of about 2 2 million to 5.3 million in the year 2035 TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Mauer Plan 12 Chapter 2MASTER PLAN development volume 111 The programme includes urban supplies to the following population centres - ♦ 9 Main Towns ♦ 15 Medium Towns • 28 Small Towns • 7 Villages The town locations arc shown on Figure 2-3 In addition, the rural water supply requirements of the 68 weredas making up the project area have been developed. The total cost of the interventions is estimated at USS 201 million, as detailed in Tables 1-11 to 1-25 of Annex 11 The average cost of production of the main town supplies is estimated at US S 0.37 / m The 1 small town and rural supply production costs are estimated at US J 0 12/ m’. It is recommended that the water supply programme be implemented by the year 2035, with an immediate focus on the main towns The average annual expenditure for the programme is estimated at about $5.2 million/year It should be noted that water supply programmes for several of the main towns, including Gore, Asosa and Gambela has already been started 2.42 Health The study of the current health situation of the basin's population has recommended that to meet the needs of the new health strategy1 and the growing populations! new health centres and 196 new health posts will have to be provided by 2035 It is also recommended that the larger towns would be equipped with sewage collection and treatment facilities, as part of the water supply programme 2.43 Roads The road development programme proposed for the project area is shown on Figure 2-4 It is proposed that the programme will be implemented in four phases The elements making up each phase and the corresponding estimated costs are summarised in Table 2-1 TAMS-DLC fiaro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan Chapter 2Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan Project Figure 2-3 WATER SUPPLY PROGRAMMES Urtun Waiur Supply Programme* fl Mun Tcm « Ottwif To*m « Lfetn Sila Raed Nehvwk -------- Major Road ■”*— Mina* Road - Proposed Ado mb Rood 1 ; Wercdp Ho u*- TAWS Consultants. Inc. (U SA) and ULG Consultants Ltd. (U.K.) For the Ministry of Water Resources of the Government of Ethiopia Produced on October 17 r 1996 Sources TAMS4JLG; ARDCO/Soyuz. Topo (1:250 000) QIS Flename damerte.apr ar 34“ 33’ETHIOPIA Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan Project Figure 2-4- W - ROADS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME ■ ------ teeing »cod io be upondedm pho*» ' — — b*72hd fa b* cmattKM ph*« I Exnfjpg ruad fc tx upgraded m ph»= H ” — Rn»l to tw COfHfrUdwd In ph** 11 ------ tuiinfl load to t» upg«xdad in phew ■< —’ Ottwf *0X1 )Roxi bection n re» IVnl I. CNigUr 5) u — Lrn it ur Rfc*d Soctxj-n ~11 i We<edn No « Ttwn TAMS Con suit ante, Inc. (U SA.) and ULG Consultants Ltd. (U.K.) For the Ministry of Water Resources of the Government of Ethiopia Produced on July 16, 1996 Sources: TAMS-ULG GIS Filename, rotds.aprk &master plan development VOLUME HI Table 2-1 Road development programme Phase Length (Km) Cost (million Birr) Total Cost (million Birr 1 -phase J1997-2005 (2) GambeLa -Jikawo (3) Gambela -Mem (] 0) Mctu Jet-Jet So Gimbi Other key regional roads Minor local roads Total 120 176 152 Nil 395 W3 70 3 77 33 190 8 209 88 56 2 61.82 98.7 108 57 416.0 457.60 Phan II2006-2015 (4) Gambela -Abobo -Gog (5) Gog-Dima Road Jet Other Kcv regional roads Minor local roads Total 132 165 335 655 1287 49 0 90.7 77.9 163.7 381.3 53.90 99 77 85 69 180.07 419.43 Phase Hl 2016 -2025 (8) Gambcla-DonbidolchChanka (7) Gidami-InangoRte 52 (9) Gidami-Bambasi Other key regional roads Minor local roads Total 152 90 114 420 655 1431 5 91 41 0 48 4 97 6 163.7 409.8 65.01 45.10 53 24 107 36 180.07 450 78 Phase IV2026-2025* Other key regional roads Minor local roads Total 745 655 NW 173 1 163 7 336.8 190 41 180 07 370.48 1 Work actually ongoing 2 Approximately one half of the proposed section is considered here (90km) in Phase LI as a linkage between sections (8) and (9), the second half will be considered as a key regional road and included in the item "other key regional roads This phase does not include the upgrading of sections built initially to lower standards, during the 3 first phases but this could be appropriate dunng the implementation as a result of expanding economic activity'. Total capital costs for each phase are tabulated below Total Capital Cost US S million Phase I 1997 -2005 72 3 Phase 11 PhaseIH Phase IV 2006-2015 2016-2025 2026-2035 66.3 71.2 58.4 TAMS-ULG Biro-Akobo River Basin Intejraietl Dotlop weal Master Plan 16 Chapter 2MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT 2.5 Hydropower 2.5.1 Generation V °l UME Qj The studies have indicated that the Baro-Akobo basin presents particularly f avourab[t conditions for hydropower development, both small, medium and large All the projects identified in previous planning studies of the basin were reviewed and ranked, most of them are shown in Figure 2-5. The large and medium size projects are too large for the projected electricity demands within the basin and must be justified within the context of ihe interconnected system Several of the medium and large-scale hydropower projects appear to be more attractive that some of the candidate projects under consideration by EELPA in their generation expansion plan These projects, which should be considered in the Master Planning, are Project Installed Capacity (MW) Cost (USS/kWh) GebaAl+2 183 1,348 Baro-AI+2 259 1,214 Birbir A+R 508 1,890 Sor A+R 65 2,098 Kashu 60 1,473 Total 1,075 1,624 The above costs include those of connecting the projects to the interconnected system Several medium and small hydropower projects in the basin have been identified for meeting local basin demands if none of the medium and large projects are implemented These projects are competitive with alternative local sources of electricity such as diesel plants and are also competitive with supplies from the ICS The more favourable projects in this category are' Project installed Capacity (MW) Energy Cost (US & kMTt) Kashu 60 0 040 Gumero 50 0 048 Bare A-1 40 0 053 2.5.2 Basin Transmission system As the economic development of the basin progresses, there will be a need for a network of transmission lines in ihe basin Already EELPA has planned to tie the basin to the Interconnected System (ICS) at three strategically located points In the North of the basin a 132-kV transmission line from Ghido (near the Finchaa power plant connection), to Nekempte and Ghimbi is scheduled for 1999 In the central pan of the basin a 132-kV transmission to connect the Sor region at Metu to Bedele by year 2000 is under study In the South of the basin, the connection to the ICS is planned for year 2001, with the construction of a 132-kV lint from. Jimma to Bonga and Mizan. TAMSAJLG Bln^Atobo River Bisln Integrated Development Malfer Plin 17Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Rian Project Figure 2-5 0AM SITES fta*0 Standard* -------- Paved Aowd ----- Al Weather Road — Dry Wq tfhflf Road -------- Traci Undewlficd -------- Pvcoowd Access Road1° C^m 5<e i Were da Ho Riv«f ♦ Oam See • Tcwn TAMS Consultants, Inc (USA) and GLG Consultants Ltd (U K.) For ihe Ministry of Water Resources of the Government of Ethiopia Produced on: Sources July 20, 1906 . TAMS4JLG, ARDCtXSoyvu TopoU GlSFiename: dwnske.apr 33‘ 3**r 1 1_- ■IMASTER plan development VOLUME III Independently of the construction of new power plants in the Baro-Akobo basin, it is I'ecoinn’ended that a network of transmission lines connect the various load centres of the basin To that end. a loop through the northeastern pan of the basin is suggested This region covering the highlands near Ghimbi, Yubdo is the most densely populated area and continue to be so during the horizon of the Master Plan It is therefore likely that the fastest growing demand will come from that area as already anticipated by EELPA The plan recommends to initiate a transmission line from the Sor region, tie., Metu and Gore, to Ghimbi Although no route has been selected an alignment that would closely follow the existing main road would facilitate construction and maintenance. It would also enable allow the connection of the major towns along the way The plan also recommends to close the loop by also connecting Ghimbi io Gulisso, Yubdo and Dembidolo which is already connected to Gambela and the existing 66- kV transmission line Gambela-Metu. The construction of this first extension of approximately $30 km is anticipated to take 6 years at a cost of USS 67 million The second extension recommended by the plan should involve the connection between the Sor Region and the southern part of the basin in the vicinity of Tepi and Mizan where the tie to rhe ICS is anticipated by year 2001 The construction of those MO km is expected to last approximately three years at a cost of USS 24 million This work should start at the completion of the first extension in 2005 The third network extension to be recommended for construction in the short-term of the Master Plan would be to bring electric power in rhe southwestern region of the basin The proposed transmission line would connect Gambela to Abobo, Gog and Pugnido This extension should eventually form a loop by connection Gog to Tepi. The construction of this Line of 240 km through difficult terrain particularly from Gog to Tepi is expected to take close to 10 years at a cost USS 47 million. The 710 km of transmission lines to be implemented over the next 20 years will be the backbone of the basin electrical network and will become the Stan of a rural electrification programme. L6 Mining As has been shown in Annex 2D, considerable potential exists in the Basin for the large-scale commercial mining of gold, platinum and iron ore Mineral development and exploitation will be a private sector activity but one which through licence fees and royalties could bring considerable wealth to the region and the nation. It should therefore be included in the planning, although it is not possible to predict a programme for development Environ mental Sector implementation of the Master Plan is not without risks to the environment. This section of the volume summarises the conclusions and recommendations resulting from an assessment of ihose risks T AMS-(rLG Baro-Akobo River Basin lategrated Development Muter Plan Chapter 2MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT 2.71 Operational Directive VOLUME m The method of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) adopted by this study compljes guidelines described in Operational Directive 4 01 published 3 October 1991 by The World For uniformity we assumed a full EIA was required This was called for a description of the M Plan setting, a project-by-project assessment of beneficial as well as adverse environmental ini and their mitigations, and recommendations about project alternatives, monitoring, and training^5 The scale of undertaking was Lhat of a Master Plan it was less than that required for feasibility much less than that required for design No field work was involved, although the assessment did briefly visit the Master Plan area The Master Plan formulated its development alternatives fa” the work of two previous contractors (1) Selkhozpromexport, who conducted a Master Plan of the lower basin in 1990. including design and EIA of Abobo Dam on the Alwero River in 1988, and °ra (2) ARDCO-GEOSERV, who conducted a Master Plan of the upper basin in 1995. The EIA then assessed the potential impacts of the resulting development alternatives against criteria expressed by The World Bank and others. 2.7.2 Adverse Intpacts and their Mitigation The development alternatives formulated by this Master Plan include a wide range of projects These were grouped into water resource development (hydropower, irrigation, flood protection); natural resource development (smallholder agriculture, livestock, fisheries, and others); and rural and social infrastructure (water supply and sanitation, solid waste disposal, roads, and health infrastructure) For this summary we present only those sectors which have the potential to cause major impacts Annex 4 (Environmental Annex) accompanying this report discusses each sector in terms of its component projects, and should be referred to for a detailed presentation Hydro power developments are located in (he upper basin. While they have the potential to cause negative environmental impacts, these are mitigabic. The greatest risk occurs from sediment and ha random wastes during construction and from noxious products resulting from reduction of organic materials during the early phase of reservoir operations Habital degradation may result it reservoirs attract large numbers of livestock during the dry season Malaria will likely become perennial rather than seasonal Irrigation projects cluster in the lower basin Not all their potentially negative environmental impacts are miugabie, principally because of the large numbers of settlers the developments will requite t,lf habitat the developments will provide for disease vectors, and the collision that will result between people and wildlife and between settlers and indigenous people For these very broad but consequential reasons irrigation is premature Required are (I) improved means of disease control, particularly if non-immune settlers will suppl the work force, and (2) decisions about the rival importance of the Gambela national Park a* irrigation. The Master Plan recommends technical improvements to smallholder agriculture, livestock, forestry. The Plan recognises that farming and its allied sectors hold a cornerstone W development of the Master Plan area as, indeed, they do to Ethiopia Yet the sectors are unlike, TAMS-U LG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan Chapter 2VMSTEK PLAN development ' ch Lheir potential without improvemenu in the way that purees Changes in pohey land tenure, private forestry are first required volume m jq I conservation can benefit long-term soil productivity; it can also decrease reservoir sediment Emulation Lhe Master Plan views soil conservation as involving patterns of land use as well as aCL,h ds of production. It foresees an expansion of coffee, for example, on slopes that are o ^le fcr»nn^ crops Mineral resources offer considerable potential for eroloiiw' considerable risk to the environment At this time howevw'^ bring determined by prospecting Mining and concentraZ bajiin Thev 3)50 offer l0Cai’0n of mincraJs are 1 particularly if in-situ or open leaching processes are used Its impacu^-J ^ *** env’ronmer’t, The Master Plan proposes increased water supply and sanitation Important improvements in health will result In large towns, piped sanitation offers cost savings if it proceeds in unison with unproved water supply Done in this way, the negative impacts from construction also lessen The Master Plan proposes a 4-phase. 3-tiered programme of road improvement, As with all construction, many of its significant impacts occur during building when soil erosion contributes large amounts of sediment. These can be controlled by the introduction of Best Management Practices (BMPs), simple procedures such as erecting temporary barriers to sediment, constructing settling basins, and replanting scarred slopes These should be national in scope and form part of the licensing requirements of contractors The Master Plan will take place in phases' immediate, short, medium, and long term In the immediate, weaknesses in policy need to be addressed Data collection and monitoring should begin during the short term and continue through the long term Construction will likely occur dunng the medium and long term. Assuming that the wildlife policy is successful, the ability to control water-related disease is increased, and the soao-anihropologic needs of indigenous people can be addressed. Irrigation might occur during the medium term. More likely it will be (or should be) deferred until these improvements eventually occur fhe schedule and cost of the Programme is presented in the Appendix D of the Annexe 4, Environment EC BaroAJiobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan 21 Chapter 2I >1 ■ r* imaster flan development volume m INTEGRATED water resources development 3.1 General 3.I.1 Introduction The Baro-Akobo basin has abundant water resources which to date have not been developed to any significant level. The previous studies into the development of these resources, by ARDCO-GEOSERV and by Seikhozpromexport have identified a wide range of projects, some of them promising, but essentially aimed at better quantifying the total resources of the basin rather than evaluate the economic and financial viability of the individual projects The studies performed for the present Master Plan have included a review of the identified features (dams, irrigation projects, flood control measures, etc.) which form the range ol water resource development options for the basin These projects have been evaluated singly, considering the project as autonomous, and as part of a river system in which all the reservoirs on a river would be operated conjunctively. This mode of operation maximises the benefits derived from the regulation of the river flows to generate firm (dependable) energy at hydropower plants as well as to supply increased dry season flows for irrigated agriculture in the Gambda plain Thus, for two or more hydropower schemes on the same river operated conjunctively the total energy generated is greater than the sum of the power of the same schemes operated independently. For the combination of hydropower and irrigation schemes, the construction of any of the major hydropower schemes on rivers in the Upper basin would provide considerable benefits to irrigation schemes in the lower basin because releases from the reservoirs for power generation would increase dry season river flows This would benefit downstream irrigation either by eliminating the need for a storage dam, or by reducing its size, or in the case of a phased irrigation devdopment by delaying the construction of a storage dam until a Jaier stage. Although not all the components of the systems might belong to the present Master Planning horizon, these schemes still need to be considered in the context of the river basin system so as io prevent undue constraints on the long term future development. J. 12 Surface waler resources There are three major river basins in the study area for which runoff data, although limited are available: the Baro river and its major tributary, the Birtir river, the Alwero river and its tributaries the Chiru and the Mey rivers; and the Gilo river. There is no data for the fourth major aver in the region, the Akobo river, which forms the border with the Sudan Only a small pan of its catchment falls within Ethiopian territory. The catchment areas and mean flows in the main rivers of the basin are summarised in Table 1 AMS-ITlg Baro-Aicotxi River Bixin Integrated Development Plan 22 Chapter 3M, ASTER FLAN OEVEl OPMENT Tsbk J-1 Summary of surface waler resources V OLUMt Haun Catchment area ____________ Mean annual runoff (MAR) (Mem'year) Bare* 30,004 12,784 .Akobo Upper 6,036 1,774 Akobo. Lower 7 200 2,118 Gtk? 12,815 3.224 Ajwcro 8019 1,375 Serkoic 7.702 1.320 Tinnaud 2,690 419 Fiber 1,435 224 Total 75.910 23,237 The .Akobo has been divided into upper and lower portions because it is only the upper porw that falls wholly within Ethiopian territory Only the upper catchment is available for any future water resource development, and one project, the Kashu hydropower project has beer, identified No development is possible on the Akobo river in the lower catchment unless it were to be a joint Ethiopian/Sudanese project, which seems unlikely at present Because only one scheme has been identified on the Akobo there is no opportunity of system modelling for this river J. 1.3 Shortlisted schemes Overall fifteen new dams with storage reservoir have passed the screening process and were considered in the basin development options On the Baro river system the following schema were considered one reservoir on each of the Sor and Gumero rivers, two reservoirs on each of the Birbir and Geba nvers and four reservoirs on the main stem of the Baro river Tb« system study for the Alwcro river considered the existing dam at Abobo, a second reservoir also on the AJwero at Dumbong and one on the Chiru river, a major tributary which joins it upstream of the Abobo dam On the Gilo river two reservoirs on the main stem of the river have been considered. 3.2 The HEC-5 Model The combined operation of reservoirs within each of the river systems were analysed using tfe or S HEC-5 computer program This simulation model was specifically developed by the ^ ? /_ Engineers to assist in the planning studies for evaluating reservoirs in a system and slJ1. conservation storage requirements for flood control water conservation and hydroelec generation These objectives are accomplished by simulating the sequential operation 0 system of reservoirs of any configuration for short interval of historical hydrological events for longer duration non-flood periods The reservoir releases are controlled to meet one or several targets For flood control, th operation rule can be. for example, to release a discharge which will not exceed a targe TAMS-ULG Barn-Akobo River Buin Integrated Development Master Plan 23 Chap(er }MASTER PEAN development VOLUME ni value as the bank-full capacity or the reach downstream of the dam. and sort the excess volume up until the reservoir level reaches the maximum level of the flood control storage to the case of water conservation, the reservoir releases are made to meet a minimum Urgs flow for either water supply or irrigation or any other objectives The targeted discharge ry vary on a monthly, daily or hourly basis, or can be a function of water levels at a downstream location For hydropower water is released to generate energy to meet the demand defined either for the considered reservoir or for the global demand of a system of several reservoirs equipped with hydroelectric power plants In this latter case, the release of the reservoirs are determined such that the remaining stored water in the reservoirs is proportionally distributed among rhe reservoirs in the system. This operating rule which can also be modified to meet the particular requirements of a project, provides for all the reservoir to be empty or full simultaneously Balancing the storage of several reservoirs can also be achieved in the case of water conservation for irrigation or water supply when two or more reservoirs provide storage for a single target point The benefits of regulation are calculated by simulating the reservoir operation through a hydrological sequence The time series selected for this study consist of natural monthly flows obtained by infilling, extension and transposition of actual records These unregulated monthly flows time senes were developed for a simulation period of 74 years at most of the dam sites The simulation model used to assess the irrigation potential of some of the reservoirs is a trial and error process in which the release requirements are modified until the selected reliability level is reached In this case, the reliability criteria selected is as follows for each month, at least 80% of the monthly water requirements are met 95% of the time The release requirements vary on a monthly basis For the irrigation reservoirs the monthly supplemental water requirements shown in the table below were used uniformly over the Baro-AJcobo basin to determine their potential to supply irrigable land with water The monthly irrigation requirements is based on the different crops water demand according to Table H-5, .Annex !H , (Imgaiion Annex) Monthly Irrigation Requirements in m /s per 10,000 hectares J January' 940 July 9.10 February 4 60 August 0.00 March 1 20 September OOO April 000 October 000 May 0,00 November 580 June 7.60 December 1220 An additional requirement was placed on the irrigation project: for environmental reasons a Minimum constant release equal to 8% of the mean annual flow should be maintained m the r ’Ver downstream of the dam. ^ith regards to hydro power operation, the programme allows the determination ot the firm ” !ergy, as well as the secondary energy For the purpose of this study the firm energy was defined as the constant monthly energy that can be guaranteed every month of the simulation Period with a 98% reliability. The secondary energy is the energy generated during periods of spillage when the reservoir is full, and the units can operate up to the maximum capacity- of the I Ta MS-U1_G B»ro-Akobo River Bump l»t<xra(Cd Iknekopipnii Master Ptin 2* Chapter 3 JMASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT hang dun. the most downstream project site considered in the basin A total of ten dams ha?; been evaluated for their regulating capabilities to generate firm energy and to supply wat^ tc the 349.000 hectares of net irrigable areas in the Gambela plain, in the vicinity of the Ba™ mer 3.J.2 Hydropower and irrigation Priority to hydropower The rwo most attractive projects in the basin, in terms of economic return, are the Baro and the Geba-A dams One simulation model was developed to evaluate the indirect benefits of flow regulation in the upper basin Both of these projects can be economically justified on the basil of hydroelectric power, with the construction of two downstream power plants at each of these projects The regulation of the flows, although modest when it reaches the Gambela plain, provides a significantly increase of the low flows of the Baro As a result of this development scenario the flow are sufficiently regulated to irrigate 85,500 hectares of land at the project! identified in the vicinity of the Itang dam These 85,500 hectares could be irrigated without the provision of any additional regulating dam, and would also meet the requirement for the minimum environmental flow release. This potential irrigable area is 78,000 hectares Larger than the 7,500 hectares which could be achieved without any regulation of the flows Priority to irrigation Of the 249,800 hectares of irrigable land that has been identified, 98,300 ha would be served from the Itang reservoir and 151,500 ha from the Gambela reservoir From the sedimentation studies it appears that the Itang reservoir will have a limited life, and therefore it will be necessary for the long-term planning to assume that the regulating storage will have to be provided upstream of Itang, for example at the Gambela reservoir. A simulation model oft Gambela reservoir shows that an active storage of 2,100 Mem, i.e , a maximum pool level at El 505 will be necessary to irrigate the 249,800 hectare and still maintain the minimum release J requirement of 29 7 m /sec. In the case of the Gambela reservoir, a dual project, i.e, irrigation and power, was considered with a priority to irrigation There are 95,400 hectares that can be supplied with water from < reservoir by gravity. This water however, could not be released through the power plan located at the toe of the dam For the purpose of this analysis, the reservoir has been considered with a maximum pool level at El 495. From the water not used for irrigat*011 hydropower benefits could be generated from a 75 MW plant located at lhe toe of the dam 365 GWh of firm energy would be produced annually. TAMS-L'LG Baro-Akobo River Basin Inlcgralrd DeveJopmeDi Master Plan Cb*P,er ■*MASTlRpLAN DEVELOPMENT j j J Combined hydropower operation VOLUME in Tlw Otho- development Kmriu that have b« invemgated are the conthnol operas™ of jadntdeonc power plants on the same stem of a fiver. The reservotn operate a, a balanced system where energy deficit al one reservoir can be compensated with surpluses al the other This situation has been evaluated for the two major rivers in the upper basin namely the Birbir and Geba rivers Ths operation provides firm energy in excess of what would be generated by each plant individually On the Birbir river, a reservoir system consisting of the Birbir-A dam with an installed capacnv O f 86 MW at a downstream diversion and the Birbir-R dam with a maximum pool level « El 1.120 and equipped with a 422 MW power plant, would be capable of generating 2,618 GWh per year of firm energy This output is 19% more than the total output of the two projects operating independently of2,379 GWh A similar situation exists on the Geba river Three dam projects have been identified on the Geba river and its tributary the Sor river They consist of the Geba-A dam with two downstream diversions, the Sor dam with a power plant at the dam and a downstream diversion, and the Geba-R dam located just upstream of the confluence with the Birbir river A simulation model of this system has been prepared with a total installed capacity of 618 MW 183 MW' at the two diversions downstream of Geba-A dam, 65 MW on the Sor river and 370 MW at the Geba-R dam This system of five power plants would generate 3,238 GWh of firm energy per year if operated in conjunction, 14% more than would be generated with the plants running independently. Based on the promising return shown by some of the hydroelectric schemes in the Bara- Akobo basin, several scenarios of development have been identified as part of this Master Plan including in particular the two river systems indicated above In order to fully evaluate the economic benefits of these projects, farther simulations of development stages were performed These staged scenarios considered the better projects of the basin including the Geba-A dam, the system of Birbir-A and Birbir-R dams, the Baro dam. the Sor dam and possibly the Geba-R dam To that end, a series of models were created for the following stages of development • Geba-A (phaseO • Geba-A and Birbir-A • Geba-A, Birbir-A and Birbir-R (phase 3) • Geba-A, Birbir-A, Birbir-R and Baro (phase 4) • Geba-A, Birbir-A, Birbir-R, Baro and Sor (phase 5) • Geba-A Birbir-A Birbir-R, Baro, Sor and Geba-R (ph*s« Q The benefits of the various stages of development, in are shown in the table below. ■ , -rmi of firm and dependable capacity, ________________________ ___ Chapter J ar °-Akobo River Busin Inletrated Development Master Plan 26MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT Hydropower Potential of (he Baro River Basin Phase InMilled Capacity (MW) l 183 Finn Energy (GWh/yr) 940 Dependable Capacity (MWi 183 - 2 269 1,413 269 3 691 3.588 618 4 950 5.033 877 " - 5 1.015 5,421 93 6 L LHl 7,335 1,259 It should be noted that the installed capacities of the individual development stages are larger than those quoted for each project considered as a stand alone scheme The installed capacity was based on a load factor of 60% The Gumcro project which is also in the Baro river basin, was not modelled in that system since its small size would not significantly contribute to the flow regulation in the basin 3.4 System Model for the Alwero River Basin On the Alwero river system, three dams have been considered for irrigation: the existing Abobo dam with a proposed 10,400 hectares of irrigable land, and the Dumbong and Chiru dams with 15,000 hectares and 12,000 hectares of net irrigable areas respectively A fourth dam had been identified on the Mey river by Selkhozpromexport, but does not appear to be economically justifiable due to the relatively small amount of water in this basin A simulation model of the system was developed to evaluate the total potential of the Alwero basin The first conclusion is that for the combined operation of the Dumbong and Abobo dams, the required active storage al Dumbong should be 243 Mem, i.c, with a maximum reservoir level at El. 518, to irrigate 15,000 hectares and release sufficient water to allow irrigation at the Abobo dam. When the third reservoir, at Chiru is considered and the Dumbong and Abobo reservoirs arc maintained at the level established above, an additional 9,000 hectares of land can be irrigated at the Chiru dam without affecting (he Abobo project Therefore the maximum potential irrigation system in the Alwero system is 36,000 hectares 3.5 System Model for the Gilo River Basin In the Gilo basin, the storage provided by the Gilo-1 is sufficient to irrigate die 123,100 hectares of land under its command There are another 72,800 hectares of irrigate land in the vicinity of Gilo-2. Gilo-1 alone does not provide sufficient regulating storage KJ meet the requirement of the combined 196,000 hectares A simulation model of the combine operation of Gilo-1 and Gilo-2 reservoirs has been prepared to determine the maxirnut11 irrigation potential of the Gilo river The model shows that the storage of the (wo reservoirs i* sufficient to develop the full potential of 196,000 hectares The Gilo-1 dam has also been considered as dual purpose reservoir for irrigation and hydropower If the dam is considered as a hydropower project with priority to the produced TAMS-ULG Baro-Akebo River Bum Integrated Development Master Plan 27 Chapter Jmaster plan development v olume in of arm energy, the annual generation of s plated flow releases, 47,600 hectares of **'& * estin»led „ „ or several downstream locations AltenMvely the objectives of flow ren.h*— ” c^J p ‘ CWh Frorj) V os-er energy generation In this case w^°2 ^^sed r l0 - . mjabie tads m raranmg reared wi,„ M of ' DdrKlOT.c power ptat located « ^■peryear fa,nte rBmw >fay «, ^lOOheaare, „ “ «J^Wed ro^j, * K* pta, ' ff 28MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT 4 MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT 4.1 Main Planning Considerations The Master Plan will comprise a combination of the various development projects identified in each sector as summarised in chapter 2 in order to best realise the objectives of the studs , which are to • develop the resources of the basin for the welfare of its people • create an understanding of the natural and socio-economic conditions to arrest and reverse the decline of the environment • consider the equitable and sustainable exploitation of resources in the light of the needs of the people of the basin tn particular and of Ethiopia in general Four main considerations guided the planning process, namely - 1 The urgent need to preserve the resource base 2 The need to ensure food security to the growing population of the basin and where possible, to provide food surplus for use in Ethiopia or for export 3 The need to improve the base infrastructure in the basin 4 The timing of large water resources developments in the basin The first three considerations, which are closely interlinked, lead to the definition of a base development plan (scenario I) which forms the irreducible minimum development required to ensure the welfare of the population and to arrest the decline in the environment This base case will provide the foundation for the implementation of the major water resources projects The fourth consideration, which is explored in section 4.3 below, leads to lhe definition of development scenarios Il-Vl 4.2 Base Development Plan 4.2,1 Summary The base case development comprises the following components: I Catchment management and reforestation 2. Improvement and extension to rainfed agriculture 3 Support for natural resources 4 Improvement of the infrastructure 5 Completion of the AJwero irrigation scheme 6 Promotion of mineral resources development 7 Environmental monitoring, training and impact mitigation 8 Institutional development TAMS-ULG Biro-Akobo Rivtr Buln iDtegrued Devrlopmeui Muter Plan Ch»ptcr J7- PLAN development VOLUME HJ . , 2 Cafchm^f management ., k clear that an immediate programme of catchment protecnon must be undertaken ‘ ted mainly towards sod conservation and rtfo*^ Withou. L natural resource base wdl deplete further with agncultural yields continuing toMU . . have over the past decade or so Ths applies particularly to the Upper Basm where lost Of the population are located and where the existing agriculture and farming mtenu ld e what food security exists in the project area Catchment preservation rn the basin, particularly the upper catchment must also focus on fanning practices adopted in the fanning systems ZJJ Rainfed agriculture Subsistence crops This component is strongly linked to catchment management with which it forms the single most important action that will ensure the welfare of the people The improvement of rainfed agnculture has been shown to be a more economic and certain way of ensuring future food security than the development of irrigated agriculture The detailed proposals contained in this study will ensure that the long term decline in agncultural productivity is reversed by improved farming practices However in order to meet the future food production targets it will also be necessary to increase the area of land under cultivation from the present area of 6l0,000ha tol 4 million ha in 2035 Coffee Highland arabica coffee represents the major cash crop in the Upper basin, and an important aspect of the proposed improvements to rainfed agriculture will be an improvement in quality and yield of smallholder coffee •i-2.4 Natural Resources Apart from forestry, which has been included as past of catchment management, the proposed natural resource components of the base case scenario comprise protection of wildlife and the development of tourism enhancement of the marketing of wild honey • development of capture fisheries in the rivers and of fish farming in any new reserv oirs improvements to the health and productivity of livestock development of renewable energy proriKHion of mineral resource development data that is currently available is not sufficient for the formulation of detailed 1 1 ro os s n liTk^ ^ P P ^ > many cases the immediate activity will be data collection and fell StUdy However it has been possible to provide development guidelines which, it is c Osu Sh°lJd inc|uded in the Master Plan even though it is not possible to asagn specific which are in any j rively very small Case re a J ^ f t^tntcture nr * ih^1SlrLCTlJre COTT1POnent of the base development plan comprises, * roJ3 0 ^'011 of ^an and rural water supply IrTlPro Yemenis and new road construct ion spread over 4 phases Onprer4 Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan toMASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT • the provision of a basin electric transmission system • improvements to health facilities 4. 2 6 .4h»vn> irrigation scheme The base development plan also includes the completion of implementation of the one Alwtro Abode Dam irrigation system which can be regarded as a committed irriga^8 protect The assumed programme for this is shown on Figure 4-1. although h is now recognised that in reality there may be some delay in the start date Years 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000. Complete main canal Complete design of irrigation svstem Construction of secondary, tertiary canal, roads. On farm development, fanning development 1i Figure 4.1 Implementation Programme of the Ahvero Scheme 43 Large Water Resources Projects 4.3.1 General The large water resources project consists of new irrigation projects (to follow the Alwero/Abobo Dam Project) and hydropower projects either for within basin use or for supplies to the interconnected system (ICS). These projects, which are described in Chapter 2, comprise: Irrigation Projects • Baro River, Right Bank, Gravity from Itang Dam ( 50,900 ha net) • Upstream Alwero Project, Gravity from Dumbong Dam (15,000 ha net) • Gilo River, Right Bank, Gravity from Gilo 2 Dam (47,600 ha net) Hydropower Projects- within basin use • Gumero I.D and ID, installed capacity 50 MW • Kashu, installed capacity 60 MW' TAMS-ULG Biro-Akobo River Buin [ntejtrated Development Matter Plan 31 Chapter •»plan development ,M5TER V OLUME HI Haired" ProJK‘s ’For 'CS ™ t Geb-A. 1+2, installed capacity 210 MW . Baro A, 1 *2, installed capacity 171 MW . Birbir A+R, installed capacity 455 MW • Sor A+R , installed capacity 65 MW As indicated rn section 3 1 above, there is a potential system linkage between the imgatxm projects and the medium to large hydropower projects for the ICS The large projects contribute significantly to the regulation of the Baro River and firm up the low flows This provides more security to the large irrigation projects on the lower Baro Rjver. and in particular the Baro River Right Bank project, enabling economics to be made on the storage required for the irrigation systems The added benefits of the integrated development of water resource projects should be analysed in greater detail in the feasibility phase 4.3.2 Irrigation Projects Ahrero The completion of the Alwero/Abobo Dam Irrigation Project is a priority and is considered to be part of the base development plan it is estimated that construction of the irrigation system in the irrigated area can commence in 1998 and that farming operations from the competed system of 10,400 ha will reach its development level by the end of the year 2004. This assumes that land can be placed under irrigation at an average rate of 2000 ha/year, which is a high target level Baro ■After Alwero, the most economically attractive and least environmentally damaging project is the Baro Right Bank / hang Dam Project. For planning purposes it is assumed that fanning operations for this project will proceed immediately after the AJwenj/Abobo Darn Project is fully implemented, i.e commencing in the year 2005 Two development scenarios are possible namely- 1 Investment from the private sector for commercial fanning operations, coupled with small holder agriculture. 2 Pure small holder farming operation. commercial farming operation would include a core estate, say over 25 /« of the area ^'Srtated for commercial operations, supporting and supported by the outgrowtr small ** who would utilise the remaining 75% of the area Even with this arrangowet it rs the commercial farming operation would cover only 40 - 50% o ^In^71'^8 prQiect The olhcr 50% *60% W0Utd bC ** pUfdy s™1 h° ^£'"‘"8 Purposes, it is assumed that the commercial famm? Plo "«il«l at average rale 2oooha/yem and a. die same ume purel) small holder Oupter-t ULG ® ro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Dcvdopment Master Plan aMASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT agncuhure can be implemented at the same rate Typical implementation schedules on tk. 5 bass are illustrated in Figure 4-2 Alternative 1. commercial operation is to be preferred since it gives higher rate of return reduces the investment required from government and gives a faster production schedule The decision on Alterative 1 is of course in the hand of the private sector The implementation of the subsequent irrigation projects, namely upper AJwero/Dumbonc Project and the Gilo Right Bank Project would follow a similar strategy Yean 1997- 2002 2003- 2007 2008- 2012 2013- 2017 2018- 2022 ALTERNATIVE 1 Commercial Operation 22,000 ha - Core Estate J2.000 ha - Outgrowers ALTERNiATTVE 2 Small Holder Operations Figure 4.2 Implementation of Baro Right Bank Irrigation Project 4JJ Large and medium Hydropower Projects The implementation programme for the small and medium scale hydropower projects will depend on the least cost expansion plan for the interconnected system Two alternatives have been considered for planning purposes - Alternative I Implementation of the Baro Akobo projects to meet the growing demands estimated by EELPA (i.e about 10% per annum) in order of least cost/installed kW Alternative 2 Implementation of the Baro Akobo projects at the rate of one project every four year (i e a continuous construction programme) These two alternatives are illustrated on Figure 4-3 Obviously for the Baro-Akobo basin. Alternative 1 is preferred since it represents a higher investment in the area Again the decision on this point falls outside the basin and will be based on national planning considerations The rate of annual investment is not a criterion for the choice since the investments in hydropower will presumably be made in any case, if not in the Baro Akobo basin, then m some other basins TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo Riser Basin Inlegrated Development Master Plan Chapter ■*development ma**1 __ ________ VOLUME m . i : Alterative 1, Implementation Program for Medium & Large FiO * Hydro power Projects ur A Kaehu Figure 4-3 : Alternative 2, Implementation Program for Medium A Large Hydropower Projects Sor A Kashu CUpttr* G B*ro-Akobo River Buin Integrated Development Muter PUD 34MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT 4. J. 4 Small Prvjtcti If no medium and large scale hydropower projects are built in the Baro-Akobo basin, it is assumed that small hydropower projects, Gumero (50MW) and the Kashu (60MW) Wou]d be implemented since they are more economical than any other means of meeting fl* dectnaty requirements According to the present planning ofEELPA the national grid system will have reached the Baro-Akobo basin by the year 1999 This, together with existing supplies within the basin (mainiv the Sor hydropower plant) will be sufficient io meet local demands until there has been lime to implement the final stage of the Gumero Project scheduled to come on line m the year 2005 It should be noted that the large scale commercial fanning operations may commence in the year 2005 and the presence of a nearby hydropower plant would provide further assurance to the private investor Therefore the Gumero project would be implemented in stages until the next project, the Kashu project comes on line in the year 2024. This implementation schedule for the small hydropower projects is illustrated on Figure 4-4 Figure 4-4 Implementation Programme for Small Hydropower Projects TAMS-VLG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan 35 Chapter 4PLAN DEVELOPMENT MAS** VOL UME m IlK P'CVKWS dlOTis'”n 11 “ ;lear *hM,he iwlenroaion pro?™: h tef resources projects will depend on decisions outside the basin These are - ( for to 1™ j The decision whether or not to build medium to large scale hydropower p rojects uilhin the basin 2 The decision whether or not to adopt commercial firming operatio ns in the new irrigation projects. Decision (1) is a national planning decision related to the expansion planning of the ICS Decision (2) depends on whether or not private investors can be attracted to invest in UTigalion projects in the Baro Akobo basin. The timing of these two decisions will depend on the planning process with respect to irrigation and hydropower In order not to jeopardise the implementation of the programme the first decision to proceed with the hydropower plants has to be made the latest at the end of 1998 and the second decision to proceed with the irrigation has to be made the latest at ibe end of 2000 It should be noted that all the immediate large water resources project under consideration are in the Baro river basin It is proposed that the recommendations with respect to the selected hydropower and irrigation studies in the Baro River basin should be confirmed in a first phase of the feasibility study, based on more detailed topographic studies, a minimum of site investigations and thorough reconnaissance studies The irrigation feasibility studies cover a very large gross area of 66,000 ha and will take about two years to complete. A further year will be required to develop draft concession documents and make approaches to private investors On this basis the decision point for tiie irrigation project planning will be January 2001, The hydropower feasibility studies can be completed in 1998, by which time the feasibility ^hies on Gojeb, Tekaze, Chemoga Yeda, Belles and Helde-Warabesa will have been Spitted Thus the decision point for hydropower project planning will be January 1999 basic decisions give rise to six planning scenarios as illustrated by the decision ^shown on Figure 4-5 _________ _____________________________________________________________________ _________________________________■ Cbxpter4 ®>ro-Akobo River Buin Integrated Muter PIab 36MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT V0LU'ttm Figure 4-5 Mailer Plan Development Decision Tree TAMS-ULG BiroAkobo River Basin In tegral cd Devdopinrnt Master Plan Chapter 4PLAN development VOLUME p planning Scenarios y// Introduction The ax planning scenarios emanating from the basic decisions „ • n and hydropower project planning are illustrated on Figure 4_s '.2?sar,On planning case scenario. which will be implemented irrespective of anv d * • C°nS,fl °f the and irrigation, and five supplementary scenarios one of vS S'°,n °n P°*« generation the choice depending on the outcome of the strategic content of each scenario is described in the follow™'0^” ,0 scenario I. cacr®f implementation schedule and an estimate of costs The®. 8 ■ 1995 USS. are based on detailed cost estimates set out •r the econo™, analyses tt is judged ,ta the margin of error 4.4.1 Base Development Plan - Scenario I Content The content of this scenario is described in section 4.2 above Schedule t0 F«her with the ° prcsscd " of The schedule for the implementation of the main components of this scenario is shown in Figure 4-6 Cost estimate The estimated total cost of this base development is USS 2,542 million The investment will be spread over a period of nearly 40 years: annual investments for all the main components usociated with scenario I are given in Table 4-1. It will be noted chai the initial annual costs ire high because of the Alwero/Abobo Irrigation Project The annual costs build up gradually from about USS 7.3 million / year to about USS 88 5 million/year through out the planning period The breakdown of the total investment by sector is as follows. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------— share________ 2.62 61.90 __ 7.75 400 4 59 0 42 1055 2.56 022 Chapter-i B,r rvAhobo River Built Intqfrtted Develop"*"! MailerPlin'I I1*101 ♦ 11 W>* T« W il fit K*« CM « 1)0 p ■X1C tti 4 IKI • l«4 III .■m r cm1 ■ IB D mn kfuf Hit I‘.'3 4l ■ ift» Ml 0 ltd a Gfcfit JAQ D uej •tea CCl* titi t EM* mt qj r t tin a Fmd- LMK i'fr fl li0 4 J IM LJd Ci icr r. "Keil an c rr,o *I IIrfRfMNP*VELOI,MENT MAS’ * __________ _____ ________ volume ni 1 " JI. Hydropower for Rosin - Smail Holder Irrigation 0*1*1 IT represents the most modest addition to the Base Case The hydropower een^0 J be su e projec . p nmposed on the Base Case Scenario arc - and Baro Right Bank / Itang Dam Irrigation Project ( 50.900 ha net) ’ Gumero 1,2 and 3 Hydropower Project (50 MW installed) Kashu Hydropower Project ( 60 MW installed) this scenario is shown on Figure 4-7. The schedule for annuaj investments for Scenario 11 are given in Table 4-2 The total investment over the'penod of 40 years is about USS 592 million, which represent an average of USS 14 8 idllion/year The annual cost varies from about $ 2 8 million year to S 35 million 'year In ths scenario the hydropower sector represents 29 3 % of the total investment while the imgation represents 70 7 % of the investment 4.1.1 Scenario III - Hydropower for Basin - Commercial Irrigation Content This is the same as Scenario n except that it has been assumed that significant private sector investment can be attracted to the irrigation projects in the basin The irrigation development under this scenario thus consists of :- 1 Bam RB/lcang Dam Irrigation Project - commercial component 22, 000 ha - small holder component 32,000 ha ’ Tpper Alwero /Dumbo ng Dam Irrigation Project - commercial component 7,000 ha , " SrTia^ bolder component 8,000 ha o river, Right Bank/ Gilo 2 Dam Irrigation Project - commercial component 21,000 ha ■ small holder component 26, 000 ha I he Scheel i c u e for this scenario is shown on Figure 4-8 a breakdown of which is given in Tab^ ^’jg^^y^ The ^l tow penod 40 years, which represent an average of L SS - - >d C Vanes ^rn about US$ 2.8 trillion /year to $ 54.4 mtlhon .year J^should that some of this investment will be borne by private investors In ths ------ — Cli.prer 1 r XVkobjj River Biiln Intetri(H| Dctricjiniettt Muttr PlanJ.L 11r 1'1 I ■■J tI u _■ ■r*Wr ; fh4r*fxwrfor/rrifMffn. Smart* H, C*irt (I -SS ntffltonf r u TIH kWMdlUl -.y-J IM1 Trhb ^1d . . 1 -J 1 * - LM « U i= ?1. n r« 1 1 H,*>$o«rtr Q«« f'BiBHUUljffji 0540 &»moh fMtilni iirM Awwrl 04*0 0$40 CqftUWcUua Fhui 1 l. U MA! { » no 11WX O*ilQfi, B*"•- *•wrti o*jo U«N (MOWWiPtMill |IIMA> 5W 5RW D*hm' W'<Lmiq ind *-*<* 0w 0 TO C—»* JM l ( ft MW1 raw g kg Kaahu raauNUy 1 ' LMJ CJa#^ Srirtrq ^4 ‘CuiiiVutUun HMa* 14*3 *4W] J 4U AM 4M Ml IJM MM - • 4*1 •4» iw 4.M IM - • *74 if* IN 14 if ■ F’ -------------------------- --------------------------------- * F- -«■-»■»<—- *-■-■—r 1« iM Ihj M JL A-rrrl > r • ■J i —’•’*7^7—-w—m ■ ! ------ - —-■----- 1 La ' ■--..■Ji ■— - --1- - ■»■-----------CjBan ll M JU- -!Lil __ 1 —r RM aoa »N >o* ■ Ml 1 '3 ■M RM ■ Mi •« g ni • UR ' Roh i OR H 4 «R 4 41! _ •« •M 4 HI 4H 4 «■ 4 all 4 an 4 af 4 4Rf a 4R i 4R ■ulMvW 1J4 JH 4*7 • 47 fl H 9*14 MJ3 HW MM M.II HARR rxa« flM TIM TUBR MM MIR Cl H nN rail TOTAL l.M 1U T.11 T.»1 ilm MU ll±l M >1 1144 13JMI 10. M 11.44 11.44 I fl . 44 11.M 13JM ni» 14 M 1411 JAM £4 44144* 14 U M.M MM MM MH UH U«l UM UH 4 4» 44*'rviMf IVojcitk *mn I M »T atmjrt T»rm Maailium Turn 7m~~m /Oumwp IF—aifaiWy Slucfr ~ * jfrqp fiwJirrg A Aw*r11 fconrtrudwn Fha— F( I 2 MW? ID—ign Bidbng & Aw—d fc on ilfuciMM PhaM f f fj MW) I Daawgri Baling A Aw rd______ Itot^njcUon Ph— II (20 frW/7 Km/*u FaacJUldy Slydy____________ Dwgn Awing A Ard CcnaJiucilon Ph*M {flfl MW? Irrigation ____________________________ B*X» flfrw jfrghr Sank f1 51,000 ftJ n?tj Fa—jMity Study Canal Cocwlructkrn_________ CofnmareMl frriflrtkm (21,000 haj_ 5-rr^M HoW»i lrng«Uor 130 OOC ha? ; 1I l I Mw^r" l “ F —itaijlySltfJy _____________ D—igru fiadinfl ft Awrt PMtmnfl Dam CchtIti uciwan________ Ma in CwtJ Corm*ructeon__________ C.«.^»wrc-ai *«iigai*on ■ ? 000 ►<-»£_ Small Holder irrigabcm (B,0o0 Mfr Grip Rrw fflgFH Ban* f 47 W/to Ji'-dfc £ T= ^■■jhllp »wdy __ ' jDompn Biding < |G*v2 U*rn ConalfUCfcon, |ltonL«nd Conwirucaon Cornrrwijal Ml >g«**ofi (21 6061w} SmaH HoMa* hTiflateH\26,QG0 haj Pag.1IPLAN DEVELOPMENT VOLUME m „„„ the hydrapower represents 15 % of the total ,„,e!tmCT1 wM sc*nan as % of the investment re pres£n>5»- S^oriolV- CvnWit Scenario W is similar to Scenario [J, except it js me irrigation ,aer Ration . ° ^ct medium and Urge Sc* hydropower projeet^^^ - been TOde to or P^duction into the j] K hydropower development under the scenario thus consists of- • Geba A 1 '2 « Birbir A+R • Baro A H2 • Kashu • Sor Installed capacity 183 MW Installed capacity 508 MW Installed capacity 259 MW Installed capacity 60 MW Installed capacity 65 MW .. h. installed in four year increments starting with Geba-A. 1 & 2 s sxusfy the demand of the country 2005 p"ow The schedule for this scenario is shown in Figure Total annual investments are given in Ta years is about USS 2,148 million, which represent an Table 4-4 The total investment over the period of40 , mot. MUSS 53 7 million/year The [ should be noted /year t annual cost varies from about S 6 million /year o - "~ i-esents on investment n in the however the. the excess expenditure over Scenario 0rep^B £ national generation system rather than on investment The hydropower projects are nevertheless of great secondary benefits of the investments and because o projects in the upper reaches of the Baro River provi e Amoral regulation that the th® benefit of the downstream reoresents 80.5 % of the ^ion development In this scenario the hydropo- ^or repre ota] investment while the irrigation represents 19.5 Scenario V- Hydropenver for Basin and ICS - Conunerdal I g ^Went . . ed that significant private ^enario is the same as Scenario IV except that11 * “su™ baSin. The irrigation °r investment can be attracted to the irrigation P J , ne °pment under this scenario would be the same as TS rLQ Baro-Akui,; Chapter 4 River Brin Integrated Development Master Planftivw' dludp Fgklftm ___________________ ________________ ? rtfatr -Qty* 0Mr ( 50,000 ** M0 FagaltaWy Study __________ 1 Deuyn Biding I Awtf Cwrttrucfion Irrigation System Conrtirticm 1 Farming Opwattan 0u4d up Hydropower O*6dPrp|wcf FM4(t4Hy Study t t*tgn Mng < Awrd Conrt-uctkri 0lrMr Prober FwtOlMy Study rtesign B*d*ng fc Award jCwwIructon SjrpFn^ecf Fwiibilty Study i C*yjn Bwftnfl E Award ConOructun P^ecf fFaaubdfty Study ______ D*vgr» Biding I Award Comtrufflon Sdr Profit FuBlbaUfty Study I Dawgn Biding IL Awtd l C9n«rucaon Page 1■x’np-0» 1«Un«44 4114 441* II 11M 1lil 1144 11M ,1|* IJM 11M 1161 4 U 444 , ■ I L1«0«^^development voawEin f or scenario V is shown on Figure 4-10 T h^ hedul finual investments are given in Table 4-5 The total investment over the period of 40 rotaJ ^about USS 2.713 million, which represent an average of USS 67 8 million vear The y d cost varies from about $6 million/year to $258 million/year. Although these ms are high it should be noted that most of the hydropower investment is m effect J '* national generation system and a good preparation of the irrigation investment will fo V m by private investors. In this scenario hydropower represents 63 7 % of the total 1 i <amcni while irrigation represents 36 3 % of the investment . ? Scenario VI - Fast track hydropower and commercial irrigation Content it is a variant of scenario V in which the hydropower projects are implemented over a shorter period (by the year 2015) such that most of the growing demands on the ICS, up to the year 2015 are met by projects in the Baro Akobo Basin Under this Scenario secondary or even firm energy could be exported to neighbouring countries e g Sudan and Djibouti Schedule The schedule for this scenario is shown on Figure 4-11 Cost Total annual investments are given in Table 4-6 The total investment is identical with the previous Scenario, over the period of 40 years is about USS 2,713 million, which represents an average of USS 67 8 million/year The annual cost vanes from about $ 6 million /year to $ 258 million/year It will be noted that the investments are extremely high up to the year 2015, reflecting the high investment in hydropower for the national generation systems As previously, in this scenario the hydropower represents 63 7 % of the total investment while irrigation represents 36 4 % of the investment 15 Selected Scenario 1 Total in vestments total cost of each of the six scenarios in the immediate, short and medium terms is Wnansed bdow Immediate term Short term Medium term Total 1 (1996-2000) (2001-2015) (2016- 2035) >9125 13.47 13.47 767.20 276.32 544.23 1778.82 1583.93 303.04 2542 in iv v VI n 593 598 64 1156 30 72 338.54 2148 32 52 2044 73 636 14 2713 32 52 2198 03 482.84 2713 -. . _..--- -------------- ------- - * °-AJ<obo Riv r Rrs Chapter J er m Initgnted l>evelu pn»tri Master Flim 49AJi / -■P*1" IC PT.-:-.- ■ j i! lani G+njfcycii»rt I u»n r.jral rinntyUr p.--ri nyl'f tl.rpc fa>hi flA* fl'jMgjflt ( 47jW [f*iiiIIhi^ rflbdy I ;>i>y B^AA^ 4 Mydkvpaw*r 'i3**a Pra/tcf .r*ai**^ fetfcy- Mkf I Pm | 0 pnikuel ton____ ^n^VCC__ t Shidy Dailqn Bidiftp L CflnWMdlon JimPnym | FiMibMy SM/ __________ &MLyi nilltf.| L Aw*nJ _________ u iCwarwcUrin FvrbhiHp Ipwuy tJIdrOf IL *—fcd 1Coni Irwiaas lyFn^d ’■TQTM-cter plaN development volume in total investment comprises the cost of Scenario I plus the cost of the selected ^ ve rr VI as summarised below Sv -enan° H ' V1- g fe[llHlO i+n pm pjv Hv I pVI Base *• Small hydropower & smallholder irrigation Base x Small hydropower & commercial irrigation Base * large hydropower & smallholder irrigation Base large hydropower &. commercial irrigation Base ~ maximum investment To Lai in vestment (USS million) 2.542 3.134 3,698 4,690 5,255 5,255 5.2 /Inre development is stated in section 4 1 above. Scenario 1 is the basic development that is essential if the decline in the natural environment and the productivity of the land is to be arrested It is the scenario that fully addresses the key abjective of improving the welfare of the basin’s population by satisfying their requirements for the basic necessities of life: water, food, and energy Nearly 70% of the cost of Scenario I will be devoted to the improvement and extension of rainfed agriculture which, as has been shown, is an extremely attractive economic proposition The remainder of the investment is devoted to environmental, natural resource and social infrastructure projects which are vital for rhe well being of the population even if ihe benefits cannot be measured in monetary terms The negative environmental impacts of the Scenario are small and easily mitigated. 45.3 Hydropower Economic arguments The studies have shown that rhe medium and large hydropower projects not only produce electricity cheaper than the small schemes, but compete with the best projects that are availably for development anywhere in the country, These projects will also provide 1[)1Ponant secondary benefits to the basin's population, the main ones being. * employment opportunities associated with the construction and operation of the schemes « rotation of the rivers which will benefit downstream irrigated agriculture These b fafITIin£ and recession grazing several Cne^rs’ ^so the additional benefits of the conjunctive operation of a system of of the t/ri Cmes same river basin, provide a powerful economic argument in favour s r ydroPowe development to supply the Inter Connected System as described in *V, V V) Crucial ne ■ ■ T0P°wer ■ schemes inevitably cause irreversible damage to the environment, relatively ® . a tlVe *mPacts - displacement of population and the flooding of land - are bad r^nor as the schemes are situated in remote areas far from intensively cultivated that there ■CCorrirneil^ed mitigation measures have been fully costed and it is not considered ^ould h overriding environmental reason whv the medium and large schemes not 8o ahead .— ... _________________________ lro ’Akotx» River Basie Integrated Development Master Pla* 54 Ciupler 4master plan development Safwtd considerations Two national considerations must be borne in mind Firstly, it js at present Governments policy, supported by the World Bank, to favour medium siZBd l projects in preference to large schemes Although it would be surprising if tlt dr° ° P Wer lasted over the 35 years of the planning period, it does mean that the medium* PTefe,tnc« schemes, such as Geba and Baro are likely to be built first and large schemes be built later Secondly it is likely that the Government will want to spread the very j ma or m involved in the national electricity' expansion programme geographically over th* ? country, irrespective of the strictly economic ranking While the predicted growth™'* national population and electrical energy demand will eventually require the until of all viable schemes, this national consideration implies that the rate of hydropow'er^'^ development in the basin may be slower Lhan envisaged in Scenario V 45.# Irrigation Economic arguments The economic analyses have shown that the economic return on irrigated agriculture is greater for large scale commercial projects lhan for smallholder projects However for practical as well as political reasons a mix of smallholder and commercial operations is desirable and therefore comHierciaVsniallholder fanning of the three best schemes, Baro Right Bank, Upper Alwero should form the basis of future planning, subject to confirmation at feasibility stage It should be noted that the estimated economic rates of returns are for stand alone irrigation schemes and these rates would be significant!; increased if medium or large scale hydropower projects were to be constructed on the samt river further upstream Environmental arguments As has been stated tn the Environmental Report (Annex 4) all the irrigation encroach, to varying degrees, on wildlife habitats and in particular on the Gantbe • ■® Park Detailed analysis is required at feasibility level to establish the optimum irni?\^ bt for each of the irrigation areas: those quoted are the maximum possible but t cse reduced as a result of the detailed studies. External considerations It is anticipated that the irrigation schemes will be developed as commerct ^erefo^ ^^rte 1 511' nl eiT'erl^ a substantial contribution of private finance The programme for * P' depends on the government passing the appropriate enabling legislation an favourable and stable economic climate in which private investors wil e as with the hydropower, many uncertainties attach to the precise programme 4.5.4 Selected scenario Mme of the a,guwnK oullinaj Mlions 4 5 2 and 4.5.3 eS tab|jshin?1 Th-- Id th' selection of Scenario V, which composes hydropower for supply «' f„ Connection System and commercial farming, as being the most advantage for th® P TAMS-ULG Baro-Akoto Ri« r Plan 55plan DEVELOPMENT ___________________ VOLUME HI However, it is recognised that environmental reservations and national o f f he baS s mean that both the content and above all the programme of ths Scenario, if consi^0 , lfX reality differ substantially from that actually shown Irrespective of the jdopt^' development it is important that the in general the implementation of actual cedeS that of irrigation so that the latter benefits full from the regulatory h 4.6 4.61 Imgafed Agriculture Pie overall gross irrigation requirement for the typical diversified rotation has been estimated at 13,106 m per hectare per year. This gives the following annual gross demands P ^° °fhydropower releases on the dry- season river flows Water Use and Allocation J for the irrigation schemes under consideration Scheme Water demand (Mem) Baro Right Bank 666 Aiwero/Abobo 136 Lipstream Alwero 196 Gilo Right Bank 615 Total 1613 By comparison, the total gross annual demand of the maximum irrigable area of 480,000 ha (section 2.3) would be 5,288 Mem In addition the annual evaporation losses from the irrigation reservoirs must be considered, as follows .Reservoir _itarig -punibong ---------- —--------- Apobo ----------------------------- Evaporation loss (Mem) 76 22 —------------- 19 Total ’ —*— 139 256 "The Mich is ^nsuiTlPtive use of water by hydropower is the evaporation from the reservoirs, follows if A tn* —- - » ______________________ _____________________________________________ ________________________________________________ ______ Evaporation loss (Mem J. Wver Basin Integrated Development Muter Plan Chapter 4master plan development 4.6.3 Water mpply Water supply for domestic municipal and industrial consumption should h all other demands The total requirement for the population of towns ^7' year 2035 has been estimated in Annex II at 38 Mem /year on the basis of 780,000, an average gross consumption of just under 50 litre per persori a Popular, ' requirement of the rural population, projected to number 4 5 million in the’ Thc’°'t a net per capita consumption similar to the residents of villages (20 litres/daV at 33 Mcm/year, giving a total demand of 71 Mcm/year. However it is rcc? 15 estimatej for water resource allocation purposes that this requirement is doubled to ■'? <n >n system losses of greater than the 15% assumed, stock watering and other unqUC 1CCauDl °f 4.6.4 Environmental demand The environmental water demand is for a minimum flow in a! the rivers to sustain ecology. This minimum flow has been set at 8% of the mean annual flow for the * U " of reservoir simulation studies, and this figure should be adopted as a guiddine'for°^ water resource allocation 4.6.5 Waler balance ’ ll! Table4 8 shows that even in the most densely populated catchments, Baro, Alwero and Gilo, the maximum development will not be constrained by the lack of water Table 4-7 Water balance Basin Annual water requirement (Mcm/year) Irrigation hydro water supply environ. TOTAL Baro 742 281 85 1.023 2,131 Akobo lipper 0 20 2 142 164 Akobo. Lower 0 0 2 169 171 Gilo 754 0 20 258 1,057 Alwero 215 0 18 110 343 Sericolc 0 0 10 106 116 __ Tirmand 0 0 3 33 36 Pibor 0 0 2 18 20, _ Total 1,869 %8 301 LL 142 0.6 1,859 8 4.171 , ■ 18 J MAR 12,784 1.774 2,118 3,224 1,375 1.320 4P W 23337 TAMS- IILG Biro-Akobo River Basin lntefrticd Development M«ter plaD 57PLA> DEVELOPMENT VOLUME m HECOMNfEN'DED master plan 5- 41 [faster Finn Description I (IV tj hisScenano V »r wc 5. J J The Base Scenario does not include high capital engineering elements, such as dams, but instead mainly concentrates on water supply, agriculture catchment management and natural resource development. Tlie main activities and the distribution of the investment of the sectors over the planning period is as follow Secton Percentage Runfed Agriculture 61.9 Road Programme 1055 Water Supply ( Town & Rural t 8 59 Coffee Improvement 7.7 Transmission Line 5.4 Jrrjgarion Abobo ( Completion) 262 .Environment Action Plan 256 _Caiduront-Management 0.42 jfjjflitutional Support 0.22 Natural Resource Development- ^Plemet)^ supply the demand of the Interconnected System (ICS). But before = this ScenarioMASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT The main activities of the Scenario V are (see Figure 4-11) 1 Irrigation • Baro RB/Itang Dam [rogation Project - commercial component 21, 000 ha - small holder component 30,000 ha • Upper Alwero /Dumbong Dam Irrigation Project - commercial component 7,000 ha - small holder component 8,000 ha • Gilo river, Right Bank Gilo 2 Dam Irrigation Project - commercial component 21,000 ha - small holder component 26, 000 ha 2 Hydropower • Geba A 1+2 Installed capacity 183 MW • Birbir A+R Installed capacity 508 MW • Baro A 1+2 - Installed capacity 259 MW' • Kashu Installed capacity 60 MW • Sor Installed capacity 65 MW The schedule for scenario V is shown on Figure 4-11. Total annual investments are given in Table 4-5. The total investment over the period of 40 years is about USS 2,713 million 5.1.3 Total cost The total cost for the Selected Master Plan is the combination of Scenario I and Scenano V is presented in Table 5-1. A graph illustrates the distribution of the Investment (see Figure 5-1). The total investment over the period of 40 years is about USS 5.255 million, which represent an average of USS 131 38 million/year The investment costs vary from US$21 million/year to USS 307 million/year Although these investments are high it should be noted that most of the hydropower investment is in effect for the national generation system and a good preparation of the irrigation investment will be bom by private investors TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan-f-Z/J/tar/cv7%r// /nees/nfenf Stefterfij/e, 3’w/w a/ S'eenarto 7 dt K Corls ffAS’S rnilfunt) Immediate 7,396 I 37 f 99 J 99 j 2,000 ~J 1 T ________ _______ _________________________________ __ [ 2 ~| 3 I ~] 5 (aj7 Short Term \ fl u¥ ((Scenario 1 730 [I l 2042 5339 57 301 5284 4826 49 13 47 6? 49.61 42.56 4384 45751 44.771 46.59ft ^Scenario V 1T 090 6.96 g.sh 16 60 69 94 103 51 103 51 258.00 183 46 184.&41 185.6a| 185.831 254.54A jjrofa/ J ™>l. 2L32| 60.35 M.3®l 71.44 138.20 152.64 151.12 307.61 226.02 22678 231.59 j 230.80J 301.1311 1 1 10.00 11.00 j 12.00 13.00 14.00 15.00 16.00 17.00 18,00 \ 19.00 I 20.00 21 00 ’ 22.00 23.00 Scenario 1 50 53 51.13] 52.54I 54.52 60.39 7997 64 36 66 26 83 78 71 67 94.00| 7121 71.26 77.58 Scenario V 107 97 114,39 109.69 63 43 46 63 53.05 7373 76 M 76.08 68.19 4751 24.31 24.31 23.51 feta/ || 156.50 1«5.52| 562 23 117.95 107.02 133,02 138.09 142.34 139.88 139.88 141.51 95.52 95.57 101.09 | 24.00 35.00 26.00 27.00 2B00 ] 28 00 30 00 31.00 32.00 33.00 34.00 1—’ Medium Term I 35.00 l| Total ] 1 Scenario 1 ] Scenario V | Tofnf 8226 23 51 ][ 10577 01.70 77.90 23.51 79.88 23 51 81 06 23.511 84 31 23-51 87 47 23.51 84.38 84.37 84 BO 23 51 00 53 1747 105.00 17 47 11.47 5 72 505.29 101.41 103.39 105.37 107.82 110.98 101.93 95 84 90.52 06 2< 2,542.34] 5 72lf 2.713.3OJ| 92 001 5,255.73^350 00 300 00 250 00 | 200 00 e» ■ 2. 15000 ? ° 10000 Number of Years Starting 1996 Figure 5.1 Summary of the Investment Schedule of the Proposed Master Plan (I & V) A Map of the Selected Development Master Plan is presented in Figure 5-2. 5.2 Logical Framework Analysis Matrix In order to analyse the Recommended Master Plan, a logical framework in a malnx is presented below This matrix comprises three levels A Goal Statement B Objectives/ Purpose C Results For each level the following analyses were done 1 Description of Project Component -s 2 Objective Variable Indicators of Achievements an 3 Means of Verification Quantification and Assessment 4 Assumption, Risks and Constraints 61Ba.o-AWOo^'6 W as«r PlaoP^ F,8”JrtR PLAN Upgnd* °* & - a- ■ Oft-M* ' ^AMS CcmUtents, Inc. (U.S A) ftn^ 'JIG Consultants Ltd, (UK.) the Ministry ol Water Resources at th® Government ot Ethiopia ^toducecl on October 1B. 1996 TAMSAJLG, 1996 Filename:. mpian ap<r /pLAN development volume m LOGICAL FRAMEWORK ANALYSIS MATRIX Objective Variable Indicators of Means of Verification, i Assumptions, risks Quantification & and constraints jirhievements & Targets i Assessment rf[ tf^laDd rtsour^5 •Raised regional and basin aggregated income, dynamic growth of Basin GDP, reduction of poverty level (Irving standard household survey). •No conflicts over prior use of water, land, vegetation (forests), Social and environmental constraints to development No ethnic conflicts ♦Rise peasant ikrtner productivity incomes •Water supply, hydro electric power, irrigation, and rainfed agricultural development, road development, animal husbandry, soil conservation, reforestation, mineral resource development • 15,000 ha rainfed banana, 231,000 ha of improved rainfed coffee; 25,500 ha commercial and smallholder irrigated sugar cane providing import replacement, 15,000 ha double-cropped irrigated rice._______________ _____ • 1.4 million ha total improved rainfed cropping: 3.2 million t. incremental yield at full production (2035), 231, 000 ha improved rainfed coffee included: 0.2 million, t. annual yield at full production (2035), 10,400 ha irrigated double cropped food crops and cotton & green manured 7 million t incremental production^ 5,5 00 ha double-cropped food crops, cotton and green fodder: 1.7 million t annual yield at foil production •Transport of produce; Commercial and smaLholders sugarcane Lt----- a iErJiarcement of foreign exchange earning capacity •Improved commodities import/cxport balance accounts; Positive influence on monetary stabilisation. Inflation index •Results of annual farm surveys and local taxes and income accounts; Coffee marketing and production records. Records of input purchases •Marketing Finks support increased coffee, banana and rice production, Sugar mill can absorb cane production •Coffee prices are acceptable, Export price level covers production costs, Transport links allow delivery of produce to processing plants l^htnem ^em J 1 of Pr,v^ •Improvement of regional investment ratio. Accountin a __________________________________________ ___________________________ River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan •Fuel, spare parts are 1 available; New skills are forthcoming. Chapter 5master plan DEVELOPMENT T -—- ------------------ Description of Project Component Objective Variable Indicators of Achievements & Targets holdings, New opportunities in service sector •Equal potential demand for energy through least-cost means •Mini-hydro power and other possible renewable energy resources Local hydropower development; Woodland re-establishment (Figure 5-1) Means of VerincaTTon Quantification & Assessment system, privatisation records. Level of activities of private traders and entrepreneurs associations •Production distribution of energy balances and cost of energy. Households budgets. Living standards measurement survey. Survey of re established woodland areas •Promote environmental conservation measures •Cost of investment is fully recoverable, GOE subsidies are lifted •Water catchment protection; Woodland rehabilitation. Improved crop husbandry (Figure 5.1) • Soil erosion decreases, *Land tenure sul (rate of land improves. Soil degradation); Low conservation pou: sedimentation, monetary benefit!nt Increased biomass are received by to indicators. Turbidity at extraction points reduces, Coffee waste biological oxygen demand declines. Soil conservation practices •Maximise economic benefits .Marketing^ •Improved rainfed cropping produces an IRR of 34%, Irrigated cropping produces an IRR between 10 and 13% depending on crop mix Increased road traffic due to increased volume of goods from increased crop and livestock production Mineral resource development visible •Profitability of farming and agro- industrial activities, Profitability of infrastructure. Economic appraisal and monitoring and evaluation system Private^ attract^ ---------- —------------------ -------------------------------------_------ _----------- -------------- - TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan 64Objective Variable Indicator* of VOLUME m I Means of Verification, Assumptions, risks Quantification & Jk n* wt An * | and constraints Achievements «S^ Targets Assessment a. B—Wlilfc—A •Project area agricultural ! ’Wereda production production surplus records. Monitoring and evaluation records. Agricultural extension records I - I | "Crop disease is net a I constrain, Soil loss is I I 1 j^elop scale yp. industries (gihariced regions ^.jed value) ■ Agrn-processing facilities for grain, oilseeds, milling and sugarcane crushing have been identified • Visible presence of small-scale agro industrial facilities; ! Order books and I financial records. ' 7Grater output for *Sugar for export or export and increased import replacement, I 4 food security from imEated agriculture I.____________________ •Enhanced export Cotton and maize for export. •Port records and I national economic I records controlled; Land tenure status improves; Animal I traction improves; Soil conservation effective I and remunerative _____ , •Credits freely available, and at market rates. Marketing links established. Local manufacture of spare parts; Customs’ I procedures rationalised, i II •L•Liinnks ks ttoo ppoorrtts s cr creeaattee losses to produce Customs' regulations I •Exports of materials and | miketing capability goods. ( •Transhipment records. Bills of lading. Balance of payment. 4------------------ I -4---------------- —--- ------------------------- need streamlining. ______ •Customs facilities at ports Continued I access, Railway not an ^alternative. v •Efficient pattern of •Interna! demands are met, 1 •Frequency of black. Jiilisstion of hydro- Surplus is exported. 1 outs, load shifting; i electric power •Transmission Iinstallation. 1 Delay of metre I 1 l.txpon, meet installation sternal demand, net I Assessment of tariffs. 4 L ? J ‘ proved tub^T” ™ W water 1 ^tlol*d soil and •W'Waatteerrsusupppply ly ffuulflfilis ls MMinin•Number of wells; •Maintenance meets Water Resources Letter of i Length of pipe, Number , demand Installation is 4 -I I ^ ter^n etvat S 1On -Poticy dated 1996.__________ _ •230,000 ha of grass strips; 95,000 ha of bunds, I 1 6 million ha of protection forest, 310,000 ha of special use i_ allocations. •5,000 km of various of services__________ _ •Records from 33 wtredas mostly at risk; Aerial photo and ! remote sensed data ! interpretation; Ground I self-financing •Land tenure I adjustment I I I •« L 1 I surveys.____________ _ 4------------- -------- —________ •Contracts let and •Roads planned to suit classes of roads, i monitored, , development schedules | constructed in 4 tolO-year 1 Expenditures and I access to dam sites and , Phases to 2035. 1 accounts audited, evacuation of Visible verificatiotL agricultural produce 1 k°bo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan Chapter 5 65master plan development V1 Description of Project Component Objective Variable Indicators of Means of Verification, Quantification & Achievements & Targets Assessment • Livestock •Health improvement in •Veterinary records at general. Tsetse eradication wereda and regional X, Draught animal level, improvement._____________ • Forestry •Records from regional bureaux and MOA • Increased and properly managed wildlife resources • Attractive tourist sites and strengthened •Forest inventory surveys; Gum tree pilot project to be established, Abandoned lands planted and woodlands rehabilitated. Management improved Staff numbers increase •Staff numbers increase; Verification of parks and other protected areas. Establishment of Regional Wildlife Bureaux •Eco-tourism to be strengthened, Staffing to be unproved in co- •Survey data collected by Forestry Bureaux and Wildlife Rangers, Verification through remote sensed data and aerial overflights •Records from Regional Bureaux • Staff number and protected pg delineation migration romes •Suitable and appropriate accommodaoi institutions capability operation with Wildlife Bureaux Improvement to I___________________ regional accommodation • Enlargement of basic community IIMUUI VCU V. • Upgrade primary education services •Health improvement in general •Record for Regional •Suitable hail'.sy® bureaux and MOA • primary school in all villages •Co-ordination by the Ministry of Education. •Increased yields and improved farmer income; Wereda and regional records •Availability • Greater farmer adoption of improved agricultural practices •Farming husbandry practices improved .Availability supplies on transport^-" ' TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan 66■* fi[ [ntrodui:t’on n ts the Consultant's recommendations for institutional strengthening and pits ChaP^initiatives that will be required for a successful implementation of the Master Plan f institutional roles and responsibilities was carried out, putting the stress on A ir>iew o jOfl of operational authority to the various regions included in the Basin, reorganisation at the central level in the water resources sector and balance by institutional strengthening at the level of the Basin considered as an entity The role of the private sector has been underlined in the proposed institutional framework Centring the implementation, a number of constraints have been analysed and put in a logical fruiiework matrix together with the objectives and the forecast results of the Master Plan A catnx of the accompanying measures is also proposed It is cruciaJ for the raising of finance that the proper institutional arrangements are in place tegether with appropriate cost recovery mechanisms M Institutional Support Proposed Project Interventions and Possible Timescale L T'olv«nlfr'Cin °^tde interventions proposed in the Baro-Akobo River Basin Master Plan study cr,er a 40 ar® number of c individual projects spread over a wide range of economic sectors and ^«nrntnd Ti plannins horizon For institutional development and management purposes the ev elop eni scenario has been selected ( Scenario V) m tnain areas nF proposed intervention are listed in chapter 5 uiterv Wori(3 include the phased development over the whole planning period of major Sj Ppiy ° 45 dams* hydropower plant and lines, large scale irrigation schemes^ towns ■ T feasibility CRies and TOadworks in the basin). Most of these require further pre-feasibility study before in.plrmenut.on ^8t"Scaig jpj ■’ifu?1 ^Bory f o CStmenu 816 lively to need significant elements of external financing The ^■.^hich . miervcntions includes projects of a less capital intensive rural development ln^^ns. TheSe ■ startc<l more immediately and which will be mainly implemented by local Vtrtlent, coffee !nciPde catchment management and reforestation, rainfed agricultural * ^Provement and (possibly) rural water supply. b ° River Bisin Integrated Development Matter Plan 67 Chapter 6master plan development I In addition to these two categories of projects, the Master Plan Study (which on old data derived from the two previous basin consulting studies) has idem? "‘‘"H areas (eg topographical survey, soils and water quality, forest inventory oth 'hed a or environmental baseline surveys) where detailed basin wide studies need to bT shortterm The management of implementation of the proposed basin developments pro COrnp,eie<iin^ 'I therefore needs to take account both of the two different categories of projects^^ and of the different timescale for implementation of the two categories of project lmplcrne:*ec Implementation of the Baro-Akobo Basin Master Plan developments will raise an issues which are applicable not only to this one basin but are also relevant to oth Basin developments. m aB Riir Co-ordination of the implementation of the proposed Master Plan developments is complex because of the complications posed by the following factors ♦ the contrast between implementing many multi-sectoral and rural development projects and implementing a one sectoral major water system development, • the fact that this study refers only to one river basin (Baro-Akobo) while the principles for implementation here should also be applicable to other river basins, • the basin contains two rivers of international importance and its management thereon involves national relationships with other riparian states, • the fact that the overall programme may need to be co-ordinated on a federal basis most of the individual projects will actually be implemented by one or other (or all> o t four Regional Governments involved, • the need to distinguish between the activities to be carried out and co-ordinat^ short term and the major water works to be constructed in the medium and ong balance th*® 4 In making proposals for institutional arrangements an attempt has been made to various factors 6.2.2 Project Implementation al Federal and Regional Level A reading of Proclamation 92/1994 suggests that implementation of the ® , vcr e River Basin Master Plan - if regarded primarily as a question of developing resources and catchment area - should be a matter within the authority e r nv0 Government. Many of the projects, especially the proposed rural d^ l°P \ ts i \ Blcn actually be implemented and subsequently operated by the four Regional Gov _ sho t]anon The initial stages of basin development planning and integrated program^4 however be co-ordinated under federal authority for the basin as a . the whole the four Regional Governments should be fully involved in planning and in>u TAMS-l’LG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan z 68volume m 1 oui in tbeir individual region. We believe therefore that there is role for a ■jjtfU * mechanism during the initial stages of implementation of the Baro-Akobo < tf^rdl i ' -phis unit could be physically located in the basin area and would report to the „Mistef Plan' , lV1th sub-units at each Regional Government ^Goveounent.wn reached in the Organisation and Management report of the Omo-Gibe River G4’’»clllSl0^en[ Master Plan Study differed slightly in emphasis from the conclusion above for &i5®Pevel^p basjn The Omo-Gibe study did propose a Master Plan co-ordinating unit UifO-A*® federal Council of Ministers, with regional co-ordinating sub-units It did not take 1°! mtemational (trans-boundary) nature of the basin water system and concluded tccou** “fj e n0 case for any basin wide organisation responsible for implementing the j) -hat lhsre , under Pl411 a™ >oi implementation and management of all developments should be the responsibility of the l ‘) Xi Regional Governments. 'Im iituation in the Baro-Akobo Basin is more complex in that its trans boundary river systems part of the Nile Basin and its basin area falls within four different Regional Governments fix ins reason there is a need - as in Omo-Gibe - for a basin co-ordination mechanism in the _^a: stages of planning and initiating the Master Plan developments. More importantly the consultants for the Baro-Akobo study believe that there should be a basin water management xansation for the purpose of dedicated planning, financing, construction, operation and -rair.tmance of the major basin water resources development works Because this involves an jitrwional” or irans boundary river system, because the rivers cross more than one regional xuadaiy and because financing of the major water works construction would need to be financed icd guaranteed through the national government it is thought right that such a unit should report loibe Federal authorities, assumptions have been made our different Regional Governments will have primary responsibility for implementing multi-sectoral developments (eg. rain fed agriculture, catchment improvement. urban mral wal«r supply, roads) in tbeir part of the basin The major water resource nvep °?ifnents ^ams f° hydropower, r large irrigation schemes) involve trans-boundary ordin LTIlerrnat,onal waters ') flowing across more than one regional government. Co- invQivll°n the P J ro ect is thus treated as a federal responsibility but with the full ? °F support to the regions involved j°natin two stages. ^^ninarv^k ^rst ®Ve y^3 ' *s concerned with co-ordination of plans for the basin, ^^lopme aS^n ^sin a J11 P °j r short tenn implementation both of multi-sectoral rural e€ts and of preparation for specific water works developments in the °f the f*111CVC| Pr°Srtimme Co-ordinating Unit (PCU) is proposed wrth sub units in f Qr studies °Ur re®ona^ government administrations involved Technical assistance, funds ^plertienta^^ training would be directed (as required) to the regional governments for 10 h a means of strengthening local capacity' At the same time specific obo River Baxin Integrated Development Mister Plan 69 Chapter 6master plan development V °Lui^h1 funds for water resource development could be directed to studies and preparatory works for later construction (See Figure £Feparat'on Of f )■ Phase 2 - the design, construction and operation of major w establishment of an autonomous Baro-Akobo Basin Water M^ resotJrc« w proposed. This would be responsible for supervising construction*"?*"10'1' K? for operating and for maintaining the basin water system It wouM Wa,er ’ cost recovery by receiving payments for water charges from th ° 0P°ra,e 0,11 C*- would retain monies to cover its approved costs of operation 6 *** i' capital works and pass the surplus on to government to cover the*™ niaJn,enance Of / the works Regional governments would be represented on its bo^d* ***£ would also receive taxes, revenue from permits etc from water ° man^e"*ni w in their area (see Figure 6.2). 6.2.3 Role for Basin Co-ordinating/Management Unit - Short and medium term ® projCc,s/enterpnse! The timescale for implementation of the proposed Master Plan interventions was described ' ik Volume, Chapter 4 Two different phases of activity were identified. The first phase of implementation involves the carrying out of detailed basin wide studies to update earlier techroo. studies and to provide baseline data for monitoring and evaluation purposes During this &s stage it would be necessary to integrate the basin and regional planning for the initial multi sectoral development projects and to initiate early implementation by the appropriate regional zonal and wereda administrations of the projects in their areas (1) Role for Basin Co-ordinating Unit The role for a basin co-ordinating unit during the first stage would be: to provide a central point for integrating the Master Plan basin developments with plans of the individual regions cnADS for to initiate the necessary basin wide studies, passing these as appropriate to r. implementation and collating the data received on a basin wide basis, in to provide a focus for promoting infrastructural development and tn basin and for raising finance for basin wide developments genci^50 to channel technical and financing support to the regional ^P’^^^pnients to build up their capacity to implement future basin and regiona ev nunence plan * to provide a specialised basin water resources section to co detailed water resource and pre-construction studies for W ^g^cated b ®” * n n?^ 4 resources projects and, at a later stage, to develop into e management body proposed below TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master PlanI j'rnjrainn'f Co-ordination ( Unit (PCU) | Soard of Managem ent------- I Manager - Studies Water M&E --------- Devpt ------ Composedof Chairman: appointed byMWR Members: 4 regions Mm. of Agriculture Other Ministries _______ r—----- 1 1 ______ Gambela regional ^-Government Oromia Regional Self-Government SNNPRG Regional Self-Government | Benshangui-Gumuz Regional Self-Government Economic Sector Economic Sector Economic Sector Ponai PCU ZZC / ' ~ - i___ — Bureau PCI Nanning I K'S'Onal _ _________ Bureau ell Economic Sector Bureau of Planning PCT Regional L Cell of Planning Regional Cell of Planning ( Existi ng Structure ‘Cl’ ^Cejj D'Pt of O Newly Propo sed Structure Panning PCU [J Dept of in Addition to the Existing Zo nal Ceil Planning * n>’AliObo ftver Baai, m Integmied Development Master Plan Chapter 6MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- — FIGURE 6-2 : POSSIBLE ORGANISATION FOR BARn IMPLEMENTATION FOR SECOND PHASF K°B° DESIGN, CONSTRUCTION, OPERATION OF Ma WATER WORKS SYSTEM ' TAMS-L’LC Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development 721 thC CC o f development would involve: —icncement of construction of major water works (e.g. dams, irrigation and hyd*^rorvwpoweresch r scnememes ^ a— nd main distribution systems) and -J continuation of multi-sectoral developments in the regions 2. d* haoe the multi sectoral role of the phase I basin co-ordinating unit would reduce piinng P activities could be taken over by the Regional Governments with co- 1 11 irJ unp ® ®' jn ^de issues being maintained by the regional cells of the former basin co- ufdinaticn on specialised water resources activities of the basin co-ordinating unit ^^^hould continue and be absorbed into a new basin water management organisation p Role of Basin Waler Management Body pie role of the basin water management unit during the second phase of implementation »ould be » to prepare terms of reference for and commission feasibility and other studies preparatory to construction of major water works • to supervise on behalf of government construction works for major basin water system works being earned out by contractors • to prepare plans and budgets for subsequent operation and maintenance by itself of completed constructions • to undertake responsibility for overall management of the basin water resources and bulk water distribution system to recover (according io tariffs established by government) charges from major Users for water consumed. Further developments ft general -I con urce$ management and cost recovery *ater „ '~"ss ensi e appears to be emerging that water is a valuable commodity and that P °gressively be expected to pay part (or all) of the costs of r its use This ^ned and * be reflected in lhc acceptance within Ethiopia of the need for tariffs to be ’^hnaTa-reco tended nationally both for potable water users and for large scale j gror m ° ^dduust strniaall oorr iinndduust strriiaall users - and^° ^ r ter resource development works the issues of effective supervision of 3 canals?^^ ^ operation and maintenance of the major structures (dams or main ^s^UCt3°11 of such construc^on is of particular importance. The growing trend is for the ^Orks io works to be supervised and subsequent operation and maintenance of the e Assured by an organisation which can recover charges from water users ~’ . ° ver Basiq Integrated Dev dupmeo t Master Ptan Chapter 6 73master plan development ---- ---------- ------------------------------- — and retain sufficient sums from this recovery to pay for professional maintenance of the water system The same principle would extend to water °Pera‘ion 05 imgation scheme The costs of operating and maintaining the local field distrib ^ works might be assured by a water users association who would recover the r^'0" or of doing so from the individual imgated plot holders. (2) Land resources management Considering the dangers and consequences of soil erosion and land degradation f and the development potential of agriculture (rainfed and irrigated) form the °ne similar analysis could be done for land, i.e. that land is a valuable commodity and ‘ should progressively expected to pay part or all of the costs of its use The • 1405 annual soil loss in Ethiopia is currently estimated to be between 1.5 to 2 0 billi™*™ * * consequence is a productivity decline of about 1% per annum Land resources allocation has been designated in the Master Plan , parallel to water re allocation, and this exercise shows no upland area suitable for farming without one or rea sonab]e 11 1 n tonDes Its restriction to its use Map 36, land capability and farming systems shows areas that are suitable only for catchment protection Between those two extremes, farming and catchment protection, there appear a range of sites suitable for forestry and livestock If in turn, land is to be considered as a scarce resource and an economic factor to be remunerated, as water is becoming, it is justified to consider land as a federal responsbih-y and as a consequence, dunng Phase 2, the multi sectoral role of the Phase 1 basin co ordinating unit would continue and implementation activities could be developed as for those in water resources In this case, the Baro Akobo Basin Water Resources Authority could be transformed into a Baro Akobo Basin Water and Land Resources Authority The implementation of land resources development programmes will of course decentralised, (for rainfed agriculture e g the extension programmes will be retained by be me Ministry of Agriculture regional bureaux). In the field of land the role of the management would be: • to propose land resources allocation : catchment protection, grazing, agncult^ irrigation sites, etc ♦ to prepare terms of reference for and commission feasibility and othe preparatory to the allocation of land in a site or a zone to propose the implementation measures of the land ownership legi atl to undertake responsibility for overall management of the basin w and bulk land allocation system unit ter reso^^ any charge to recover (according to tariffs established by the Government; taxes from land use ____ -— TAMSULG Baro-Akobo River Buin Integrated Development MasterPtan 74volume m constraints have been dealt with in this Volume and reference is made to Annexes Nog1 E^uation’ 2B S0',S SOH ConseRation' 21 2L Livestock and IH Ration. reservoirs for Similarly. irrigation artrS ome pan of fcuta Both of tin hydropower dams will displace about households and inundate land, construction such as main and secondary canals and ragfat storage will he command area, and afreet some of the households currently occupying se categories of households wifl have to be relocated. according to the guidelines issued by international lending institutions as World Bank and Afjian Development Bank, displaced people should be given preference in the allocation of nigaled land under a definite scheme This the options given to farmers are to be resettled in the irrigation scheme command area, when their livelihood was previously established, io receive a plot of land Grom the State, ■•ben land becomes available in the framework of a privatisation scheme of a state owned fine, io be resettled in another area where land is available for occupation. This issue is very important as it has been related that in the pan, the greatest insecurity “feng prospective irrigation beneficiaries has tended to be at the construction/planning phase ^faring to mass evictions accompanying irrigation development in the Awash Valley in earlier jkades Owing to this, large community involvement will be necessary at these earlier stages nr>ore, it will be a sine qua non condition of success to building the new institutional described below 0 011 Ptticipf?^ ^ i key fetor t0 Baro Basin Master Plan will require active people - ™’sa^On of the economic benefit Security of land tenure would be CnSU C Tnax fixed Assets COr,vince farmers and entrepreneurs to male long term investment in land and lj|l97s- land h ^fit a tisufriCCame state property, and individual holdings were limited to 10 ha Fanners > 'abour an? bht land canjlot be sold’ CTchail8^ leased or Tenancy, j la and Slm^ar traditional systems have been abolished Large holdings have been transformed in State owned farms, settlement schemes and co-operatives. JC8Ie and reajj &nSl a* lowest level of the administrative structure were assigned to enc°niD^ate 'an^’ Associations administer areas covering approximately 800 S |?8 lndividiiai plots and some communal areas for grazing and or forested i n boundaries have been said io be well delineated, although conflicts have ^ons Or SOl^e documents The prevailing actual status is close to a status quo where Ocalions of land take place _________ 0 River Basin Integrated Development Mister Plan 75 Chapter fimaster plan development The last constitutional conference endorsed this situation and land n with usufruct rights to farmers. Retaining State ownership has of co^' remain «ate 0 those fearing a return to the past times of large land ownership and^' ^PPohmk measuring the risk of land speculation and other abuses such as deprivat tCnanc> and/ because of insolvency Nevertheless some traditional schemes still continue to exist as share H l0n °f agricultural hiring are necessary to facing permanent or temporary shortages of labo'Tt8™*.. significant examples is women-headed households. At present, none of th of lhe most legally sanctioned, neither are the new rental agreements appearing JI* 5JTan8€In««J ic schemes, but out of the Basin area "Perceived long term tenure rights to specific pieces of land, may encourage Iona s ewhere in imgu^ investment such as planting of perennial crops Furthermore, the likelihood that a given plot land will pass on to heirs, provides some incentive to take conservation measures to the extent that such are known and the means to carry them out provided Obviously, assigning ownership rights on land to individuals and lifting restrictions on land transactions are supported by those arguing that this would enhance tenure security which would in turn stimulate investment. One mentioned possibility is that the long term lease In related to urban land (Proclamation 80 1993) might be extended to the countryside as a measure to enhance tenure security and long term agricultural investment The leasehold measure looks intensely unpopular among urban property holders and is unlikely to be favoured in rural areas unless lease rates remain at nominal level The factors influencing the land tenure issues are • claims (old rights to land, conupt distributions of land from the former Producers Co-operatives, boundary conflicts) • pressure on land (ex soldiers, landless young people) • size of farm for intensive practices soil erosion control practices that fanners can implement without *ni^,lonS °|{ outside capital and which they employ because they provide a meaningfu re that they could recognise Recently* theandsuPPortinS resulted in agricultural a polltlcaJ and administrative responsibility to the rec Ministry-of XX t1ZmCnt Agnculture has been re-organised at headquarters level into six main tevhm 1 Small scale irrigation consolidation project preparation report TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan 76• ^-ordinate interregional extension projects ( advise regional bureaux of agriculture in extension administration and management , train extension workers; and conduct research and pilot programmes m 5 m the current context, regional bureaux of agriculture are the key institutions io ^ping farming in their own jurisdiction specifically they are responsible for • providing agricultural extension services to farmers « promoting agricultural development programmes i improving the delivery of inputs and credit to farmers • undertaking research and training • and establishing seed production. A modified version of the T&V extension system has been introduced tn 1985 as component of the Peasant Agriculture Development Project (PADEP), with assistance from the World Bink Although a ratio of 1 Development Assistant to 800 farmers was considered desirable, it las been widened to k 13 00 due to budgetary constraints Early success of this strategy could wt be sustained due to the worsening of the financial situauon and the changes in the ««fidary's organisation a )Changes in the beneficiaries organisation • farmer Peasant Associations have been replaced by Kebele Administration (KA) which report to the appropriate wereda executive committee Kebele Administrations have to be the principal link between the Government and the rttral population and they should play an important role in the project s ' mPlementation 77MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT effectiveness They face increased competition from traders and fertilisers distributors • Producers co-operatives have largely been disbanded Rural Development , rn ardinating Committees (RDCC) have been or are be™ formed at the region. , c wcreda and kebele levels with hierarchical potentia] development projects At the kebele level, t mobiUse peasant resources, supervise and monnor participate tn their p to lhc wercda development co-ordinating This means that RDCC will have a major role in the proposed catchment and irrigation development schemes b) The newly established Regional Bureaux of Agriculture, working through that zonal and wereda offices are poorly staffed and the ratio is sometimes higher than recommended Currently, regional activities are limited to in-service training, formulation of extension policy and guidelines and monitoring and evaluation of extension programmes Professional and extension staff and subject matter specialists are urgently needed to develop appropriate extension packages for peasant fanners and financial and mateni resources for adaptive trials and demonstrations c) The Ministry of Agriculture assumed some of the responsibilities of the Ministry of Natural Resources Development and Environmental Protection when this latter Ministry was abolished and the (new) Ministry of Water Resources (MWR1 established MWR was given all responsibilities related to water resources NRDEP ceased to exist The Ministry of Agriculture assumed the tasks of’ss^oreS monitoring directives related to protection and administration of the countn and wild life resources, of demarcating and registering national parks, and protective forests (in co-operation with Regional Governments), o a national parks and of providing assistance for forest development. deals with l^ee<s^ICl^tUr€ j concerned MOA deals with small scale schemes while M** Natural Resources ™pons ^^^^ lb develoPments But until the abolishment of the Minist^ Ennronmental Protection, the precise region and, furthermore the r*° m™tnes over smaU xaIc irrigation vaned from the former Minkhv/.rM sometimes inconsistent instruction of a small scale irrigation scheme DesiJ^/betWeen nadonaJ ormer Mmtshy of Namm) Resources but input support was provided by the Ministry of Agriculture . supppn possWe organs" of Most critical appears to be the dissolution of what has been the -or funct'orlS Irrigation Development Department which formerly had embraced all t e TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Pl*°fgP LANDEVELO?ME.VT VOLUME in 7 to manage a small scale irrigation scheme as, beyond this structure there is . with irrigation extension in the counts flce ’ ^jtedexpe k whole could not function for prospective large schemes, a because it is too ; a sector (extension), and responsibilities are distnbuted to to o many institutions Itip f inputs supply and marketing of products o **‘"^changes in the modalities of support services provided to the rural world are had been linked to ministries which have now been radically restructured • those formerly provided by institutions that either no longer exist or are in a serious weakened state • those affected by incipient moves toward privatisation ji The AJSCO is the main agency responsible for procuring and distributing fertilisers, ^■chemicals and farm equipment (180 OOOtonnes of fertilisers distnbuted in 1993-1994) MSCO has regional offices and 400 marketing centres controlled by the Ministry of Aciculturc and having limited storage capacity Market liberalisation may induce a loss of its monopoly over inputs procurement and distribution it b interesting to mention that in some small scale irrigation schemes, the 1994 utilisation 'evtis have dropped below half of their standard because of lack of fertilisers. Inputs inability also affect types of use, expressed interests from farmers in growing a definite type if crop ire often thwarted by the lack of access to corresponding seeds or planting materials idiffh now Devel°pment Bank of Ethiopia (DBE) is mandated to provide credit and n ankmg services to the rural population. From 1974, a major share of its loans went to ji'tn t * producers co-operatives now dismantled. The fertiliser loans that have been Portfob ^Srmers lhrou b 8 service co-operatives were only a small portion of the total The Eqtk h k ^hasint a ~ beCn reor8an’sed following the changes in government policy on grain EGte has haiJl°°^ secur’ty stocks According to the last available information (1995), the ’" cdasc ofoil r se^ sma^ amounts of the grain produced but remained an important /J Tile ESE- . . tonnes last five years, its annual production of seed has averaged about ) tU;ri! '3»prove ^ and C eared seed. 12% of the potential market ESE production planning, ra eCd Pacing was dependent on Government regulations and policy Despite ^al issue ° S' retailing of improved seeds is still weak and seed quality remains p l°ts> even ’ ** of usl ? ,rT18ated> labour does not appear to be a major factor in the optimisation abour does become a constraint for the households cultivating larger plot ■ _________________ _________________________________________________________________________ fci'er Basin Integrated Development Muter Plan 79 Chipwrimaster plan development ------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- sizes (probably > 1.5 ha), or where irrigated plots generate crop-calendar co fl- crops (rather seldom). To overcome shortages of labour, labour exchange groups, usually consistin members (jigge in Amharic and wanfal in Oromo) are widely used either f °f f°Ur t0 sx weeding or for harvesting Casual labour hiring is also becoming more wides CU,t‘Vat‘on overcome this constraint lcts with Ppead as a Water users’ associations Traditional water users’ associations coexist with more formal ones borne after former Producers Co-operatives management structures Even being not too' €C°"^)seof Basin, their experience could be useful for building future organisation of ini the fanners Traditional Water Users Associations, by respect for traditional authority tend to ha h-, enforcement records than more formal associations They are usually established management of small sized schemes (50-100 ha) have their own rules and be able to im gated scl't«ie fines on violations (by taking water out of turn, flooding a neighbour’s field ..) But, eva- traditional associations can fail in maintaining a water distribution, when for any reasons the system upstream is no longer able to supply enough water to the members, creating unit- competition between them The main problems encountered by the water users’ associations in small scale irrigation schemes are occasional conflicts with upstream users diverting water, absence of co-ordinauwi between users associations dependent from a definite scheme and, specially in traditional associations, the highly time consuming yearly reconstructing of diversion 6.3.2 Management aspects of project implementation The Master Plan design intents that the proposed programme should be an efficient condur for development resources (funding) to the identified allocations This has been developed the Logical framework analysis below: to satisfy the identified goals and objectives in line wt the national priorities for the various sectors Answering the different questions raised in section 6.3.1 above needs an integrated app on the following pillars cten in line with The process of regionalisation is an important and necessary si p contrQ| to tl* Government policy to give greater responsibility' and management regions » _ jiithcnt))’ Assurance that there is only a three tier system (national - regm described above, is welcomed style* • The previous system of centralised government and consensus should be diverted to a more liberalised approach for government TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan 80,|X FkAN DEVELOPMENT VOLUME m Support institutions network should be simplified towards 3 more enterprise directed approach, and privatisation of execution functions previously conducted by the State should be developed at the earlier stages of the Master Plan Implementation. The project approach should be carefully reviewed and corporatization of functions should be developed • Participation of population should be searched through self managed institutions and hierarchisation should be avoided, in favour of self supporting rural collective approach and land tenure Klale private sector activities are at present quite limited in the basin, a number of future opportunities can, if continued governmental policy support for private enterprise development is forthcoming, be envisaged Imtsiment Opportunities in terms of attracting domestic, joint venture or foreign private investment in large scale developments the possibilities are; • commercial estate farming on large irrigated schemes in the lower basin Under former policies such large scale developments were exploited by state farms With some exceptions these are now being commercialised and, when converted into joint stock shareholding) companies it may be possible to attract new investmenr from private ■nvesors and, if profitable, from government funds In the longer term it may be possible envisage private investors entering into commercial ventures on new irrigated land comm ^rrnJn® (coffee, tea other crops) on rainfed land in the upper basin Similar to t^ category although the investment may be smaller and the time scale s p ^,e participation. Bkely fo/011 °^erdtlon maintenance of major water resource development works II is Plant and Urr;C ¥et that the investment in major water works (e g. dams, hydro-power fr'5' main distribution canals) will have to be made by the state with financing f Ql tapid fin ^ternational development agencies. In circumstances where there is scope Ms such « k41 retUms' private investment has been attracted into the construction of Tt Paid n. ydro-power dams or toll road bridges on condition that the investment can E oittr»~ . 1 Of Profile i______________ _ C. _______________ —. CQrrtr*ct ^.profits to be made from the subsequent opention and maintenance and maintenance ^Ssihk that k* in the Haro-Akobo bastn Two ical DlantC prePared to justify an investment against its own resources m and distribution lines on the basis of an economic cost of electricity 81master PLAN development Vol^ til generation into its national or local power system Secondly, it might be 01 private investment by way of working capital from an enterprise wi/ ^ ' ’° Mtra 108 lalte management contract for operation and maintenance of the basin water s *° on the state would continue to own the capital works which would be operated^ ln lhls a private operator under contract ° nitsbilfb y Other areas of opportunity, especially for domestic private investors n nerai development, in the small scale agro-industrial processing sector, in agricultural ’* in rural technology and small scale machinery and in the storage, processing and^111 agricultural produce Opportunities have also been identified for possible joint v marketlng of tourism sector in the lower basin. ventures in Investment Code The government has introduced a new investment code (Investment Proclamation 37 io 18 June 1996) This replaces the previous investment code enacted under proc! %°f 15/1992 and introduces some improved concessions for domestic investors The coded"* not apply to investments in prospecting, exploration and development of minerals petroleum resources and continues to reserve certain areas for the government (e « large scak production of electrical energy), for domestic investors (e g various trades in agncuitural w animal products, saw milling, grain milling) and for joint ventures (e g engineering industries and fertilisers) It establishes a new administrative structure for investment Under ar. Investment Board, the Ethiopian Investment Authority - an autonomous public institution - will provide one-stop services for promotion, registration and licensing of investments Regional investment organs (investment organs) will be established in the Regional Governments The responsibility for allocating land for investment activities however rests with the Regional governments, who are required to deliver the required land within 60 days Land tenure For purposes of agricultural investment the terms and security on which land is made available is probably more important than the investment exemptions on payment of duties, tax. research and development and remittance of funds which are contained in the code present basis of offering the use of agricultural land for terms of eight years will b* unacceptable to any investor who is expected to make a serious investment improvements, capital buildings or field irrigation systems This issue will attention by national policy makers and regional investment offices If comm are to be attracted to the project area for the large scale irrigation schemes 3 concession period with assured land and water use of 40 years would seem to The local investment offices in Regional Government administrations shoul , a afeaS of negotiating with potential agricultural sector investors, have authority to offer sui land on appropriate lengths of lease ni u. facilitated fo’j Domestic investment in agncuitural services and agro-processing also will dc establishment by the new agricultural service co-operatives operating a acces$ to basis In these cases, too, it will be important that these organisations can have or capital against the security of their land or buildings as collateral. TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan 82^".wpoliaic s,a,e cn,e,prises' 0SI challenging options of this Mastei Plan will be to raise a high rhythm of * 1 a- . ~ I * n lm n i I b-k rw ■ ft a a a a —a — 5|0m will have to be issued in the near future. Liberalisation of the commercial banking system should not be delayed unnecessarily, as jnate banking facilities are urgently needed to supplement existing controlled credit Polities imi institutional investment opportunities Other sources of credit should be authorised it is oot compulsory that EDB will be the sole lender for credit based inputs. Mimi credit and small-scale rural credit should be developed as an answer to the needs of the ncallest peasant farms unable to have an access to more sophisticated formulas kfeWKMi ^Services ft* extension services in the country are at present the responsibility of the Extension under the Extension and Co-operative Promotion Department of the Ministry of However a new structure for the Ministry of Agncuhure (MOA) is presently consideration and may be introduced in the next fiscal year liabilities f the Extension Division are as listed below o . Provide policy advise on agricultural extension issues, . c^Ofdinate inter-regional extension projects, advise regional bureaux of the place of agriculture in extension administration and t n'^gement, • tra^ extension workers, and conduct research and pilot programmes S3MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT Vo ^ o • to improve the delivery of inputs and credits • to undertake research and training, • establish seed production The regional and wereda bureaux would be ultimately responsible for protection, home economics, soil and water conservation, food crops1 livestock Subject Matter Specialists would be available to assist ' bort,c,,1ture. At the field level the Development Agent (DA) is the main extension worker farmers’ level The supervision tasks are normally carried out by an Exten ' * Clost$t!° Each group of fanners consists of one contact farmer and a number of f5|?n Supcrv'50: Ratios have been mentioned in an earlier paragraph and appear laree du t°*er fannen budgetary constraints 8 t0 8°v«Wnt Home economics extension workers are organised in a different manner Female ' economics officers are wereda-based and visit wives of contact fanners once a month in™ ideal situation each wereda is staffed by two home economics officers These workers - ■*"* nutrition, health and sanitation, housing, appropriate technology, income generating activihK mother and child care and family planning Extension programmes organised by the extension service include, soil and water conservation, food crops, perennial and semi-perennial crops fruits and vegetables, livestock processing and storage These subjects are demonstrated according to land use considerations and the agricultural calendar for the region The research extension linkage is of crucial importance and is the responsibility of the Research Extension Liaison Committee (RELC) The MOA and the Institute of Agricultural Research (1AR) are the main partners in the link. The main aim of this co-operation is to liaise about the following matters identify bottlenecks to production improvement, substantiate priority farm development constraints and determine appropriate research policies and objectives, evaluate on-going research programmes and results and assess new pro prepare appropriate recommendations on improved practices of crop production, review extension programmes and make recommendations on e and approach, monitor the dissemination of approved recommendation . The success of the extension services to a large extend depends on the av^ ^ a and appropriate transport. The minimum requirement for DAs to be effect1'6 mule Corporatization The proposed Master Plan activities will require appropriate mecbani survival of the investment in the course of the two first phases pr°P , a|,j Cvcleor a . ^$1^thf ,^“>PMENT VOLUME in _ hown that COITlplex resource ajkx^'on m limited duration period cfeariv need ri« BU. il » nece5Sa?' 10 P'0^' ,he “”7 "to « «fv«l ^nonsibilities- managing a large irrigation scheme, an hydropower plant, etc 2^eIt inning the entity ,n * C °mp4ny ” prtXess of P™sarion of ns U^tt [r^S often use^J^t0 corPorat’se i e even s^cs are still sate owned, that the 11 * ](J autonomous and managed through a separaic budget allowing the entity to earn its own revenue jcorpoi® ®* 3 yhrrinf t0 °fprincipal project interventions the principal basin development interventions proposed in the Bar a- Ako bo basin implementation responsibilities are expected to be as follows muster Pl*11- for Hydropower. planning stage Initial studies would be commissioned by Water Development Section of the proposed Programme Co-ordinating Unit (PCU). Implementation stage Tr.e Basin Water Management Authority (BWMA) would be established to supervise preparation of structural designs and to liaise with EFI.PA concerning hydro power plant and transmission lines. The role of BWMA is to act on behalf of govtrnrnem as owner of the works (e.g. in the French expression as ntaitre d'ouvrage) while a retained consulting engineer retained by BWMA (eg maitre d'oeuvre) would supervise the contractors constructing the dam 'hjor IrrigitiQ]] schemes. Planning stage bdrial studies would be commissioned by the Water Development Section of the PCU in ^Moration, through the Regional PCU cell, with the waler and agricultural bureaux ^cemed The PCU would co-ordinate the involvement of private commeroal 00 terms agreed by the national and regional Investment Offices, with the r «?onal admioistranon T^’’e/Ifa,'on stage 4mj slsn r *atCr ’^e bWMA) negotiates water supply agreements with large scale user ^Lholri I!USes w’t^1 regional bureaux on the creation of water user associations for pre Parati * irh®ated agriculture, The PCU Water Section (later the BWMA) supervises *sabOve°n of ^mctural designs and supervises construction of major works generally «^8ement and Reforestation ? PrDpri«eeh regianaJ PCU cells liaises with regional planning bureaux (andI -if P ^ 8stao ?th TeglOnal “Sustainable Agricultural Resources Commissions ) in n ^8e for subsequent implementation by regional agriculture and water ur —— ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ - ——- cmpiH-ti Vfcr Integrated Development Master Plm S3MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------- ri] Rain fed Agriculture and Coffee Improvement Planning stage PCU through regional PCU cells liaises with regional planning and during planning stage Implementation stage implementation by the regional agriculture bureaux and Ineai services Town and Rural Water Supply Planning stage ^culture PCU liaises with the regional planning and water bureaux in the planning stage Implementation stage Implementation done by the regional water bureaux and/or local water depan the use (where appropriate) of private regional contractors operating tonaS'’^ supply and sewerage construction standards Waier Roads Planning stage PCU liaises with the Ethiopian Roads Authority in case of main roads and PCU regional cell with planning bureaux and local regional roads agencies where applicable in the case of regional or local roads during planning stage. Implementation stage Implementation is carried out by ERA or regional roads agency with the use (where appropriate) of road contractors operating to approved national road construction standards 63.4 Agency for municipal and rural civil works Considering the importance of small scale investments included in the Master Plan and io favour privatisation of previously public works directly carried out by the State or by owned enterprises, it is suggested to create in the Basin an Agency for municipal an civil works The main functions (decentralised from National or regional Government) should be acting as the maitre d’ouvrage for small scale municipal and rural including local roads, feeder roads, health centres, small scale water sup I Feder^ being the funding agent for the proposed civil works financed throu Government revolving funds imDldncrt’1*1115 undertaking responsibility to supervise the small scale enterprisesacting 35 construction or delegating this responsibility to an engineer/arc maitre d-oeuvre. TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master PlanDEVELOPMENT . promoting the development of Dnv« enterprises in the Basin. c^uni0‘^arficv^'on ^jjvuKement of and consultation with 1 P sn^l COn5tnjct]Or] implementation of the proposed ba^n 70nWlUn/ri« durino ■ . regional. aonal. wereda ’« ««1 pl^ Mil be faethtated t> | r,™' y llK 0 te jUoman with farmer associations „ „ ^arliu raj ® ^'Won „ w of .M through its regional p X “^ves and CU «n ™ 1CK eHurs and workshops for num ^ availa n ma e ble som* s ^ Ps It y „ 0IJ "* tan Master Plan develop™™ ‘""‘^"8 ZfaSn "* Chapter 6volume in 1 -, te studies performed to prepare the present Maser Plan a ownba rf •I*1 “ d^elopme"'8 have been revtwed and evaluated on then technical and ranMnia| n as for their potential benefits to the Baro-AJcobc basin and ta Ethiopia ntv -two dams with reservoirs for flow regulation and water conservation have **£d" These reservoirs have been sized to serve hydropower plants and 'or irrigation * frlSjeS me of the reservoirs have also been assessed for their potential in preventing or ^flooding in the lower plains between the foothills and the Pibor river, Thirty-sotn ^lants ranging from the very large power station at the TAMS dam where 12.060 MU' 'Jbe installed, down to the cascade of for micro-hydropower plants at Beresha with a "'-fflbjncd installed capacity of 320 kW. With regards to irrigation, nineteen projects covering ,-st irea of 482,000 irrigable hectares have been evaluated in the low land alone These jojtets use water which is either pumped from the river downstream of a regulating dam or awtlv from the impoundment upstream of the dam, some other are simply fed by gravity mx-gfi tn intake located at the dam and a canal leading to the head of the irrigation complex •niiation of these various types of projects through several successive screenings led to the diction of sixteen technically and economically viable projects at the Master Planning level kuting ten dams for hydropower development and six dams for irrigation. Although at this Mt, some of the lower ranked project appear to be marginal on economic grounds project stflts were prepared for completeness and as a reference for future studies jnong <he better hydropower options, two projects stand out to be further evaluated a t the ' teaa^>ifrty level, namely the Geba project and the Gumero project. a, P ject is a medium to large size hydroelectric project which can be connected to ro £fotrnft|0,ln^:ted ®ystem OCS) to feed the national grid From the discerning process ^fcantiyV 6 ^asier level, this project ranks among the best project economically at a ^ansitm pi 0051 thaT1 many’ if not aU’ the hydropower projects currently in the million CT° ^^PA. The project consists of a 45 metre high earthfill dam impounding C!terete dairn rt rnCll CS (^rncm) of water, over an area of 66, kmJ and two downstream small W3Ier 11110 canals> 3 5 and 6 0 JonS respectively, Steel penstocks > anT ii diversions develop 275 and 175 metres of bead at the power plants ,evel this n • of about 105 MW and 66 MW respectively At the Master >ti^Xstudy h38 not '-’“h optimised and the capacity recommended by the pre- 1>37l per S’ 66 different. The construction cost of this project is <W, including ] 9Q km of 230-kV of iransnussian line to the Gdgel Gibe 1Ca *’ e coru?S recoaimended for pre-feasibiiity study, as a small power ^venn501^ int0 tlle reSional transmission line network for power ’“FP* . ^>l»Ped th' B^-Akobo bain (Wdle^ Sor »d Bor?.) 1* . M Ul ^ “»« Of 12, 18 Md 20 MW <o meat • he project consists of a 33 metre high rockfiU dam ere* “------------ - --------------------------------------------- - — ——— Ver B*sin Integrated DevHopcnrnt Muter Plan Chapter 7MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT VOLVMtni lake with 330 mcm of storage, and three downstream diversions to canals 2 6, 2 3 and long respectively, penstocks and power plants The conveyance systems develop ro 205 metres of head at the turbines; the power house have an installed capacity of"l2 i° 20 MW respectively As for the Geba project the capacity recommended by the pre-f’ might differ based on the results of the preliminary optimisation The Gumero project "h ultimate capacity of 50 MW is estimated to cost USS 1, 833 per kW, including the cost f km long 66-kV transmission line connecting the three power plants to the existing 66-kvV^ between Gambela and Gore. Among the irrigation projects studies, four projects with a combined area of 123, 000 hectares were singled out as being the most economically attractive One of them the 512, 000 hectares 'project at Itang on the right bank of the Baro nver stands out as the most economically viable The second one the 10,300 hectares Alwero project is presently under construction with its dam at Abobo nearly completed The Itang irrigation project would consist of an 11 metre high. 5 km long earth dam a S3 ta lone main canal conveyance and irrigation and drainage works In addmon levees mil protect the lower portion of the area against flooding Al thts pomt. a dtverstfied cropping panmt consisting mainly of food crops and cotton has been used for sizing and for establishing the Xte“^ level project cost of USS 8.200 per hectare Sugar cane was rise eonstdered at the economic studies and appears to be a promtsmg prospect. Cb>Ptcr Development Master PlaniMmenpaT1ONS for furthfr stu1>ies an» invlstigattons Subject Mfeer ' The present Integrated Master Plan Study provides a basis for encouraging the implementation of a development programme in the hydropower and irrigation sectors Before am decisions can be finalised, it is imperative to cany out more detailed topographic surveys, proper site investigations and thorough reconnaissance studies to confirm the programme of this Master Plan The water resources of individual rivers should be studied tn ' detail as part of the feasibility studies for the initial hydrapower projects on the Baro River Basin where the major development projects are recommended On a fast track schedule, the bulk of this study should be completed at the latest in 1998, to enable the irrigation and hydropower projects to commence in that year For that this Study has to be launched in 1997. The data available io this Master Plan were very mixed in terms of adequacy and compliance with internationally accepted standards The Master Plan provides the initial screening of the potential projects in the Baro-Akobo Basin Thereafter, a decision will be required about projects most likely to enter into eventual feasibility planning. Yet many of the data are unsuitable for that level of study In Particular in the Akobo River Basin no hydrological data are available. The projects suitable for feasibility level invesrigatkjns must be identified Initiate now detailed reconnaissance studies and surveys of vegetation, soil, and measurements of water (hydrological and climatological) in those areas. Data collection requirements ate listed in the different annexes to this Master Plan Sediment transport data are insufficient to provide accurate -Projection of reservoir sedimentation. —--------------- A monitoring programme concentrated to a limited number o river sections should be implemented. The programme will consist of campaign lasting the entire rainy season with frequent sampling at the targeted locations Sampling should be accompanied by flow measurements, and should specify 6 cover the beginning of the rainy season as well as the p " flow. . _________________ — ' ■ The supply of technical foresters is insufficient to tequirements of an expanding and deyejogmgj^— Implement the training prograrnme quthned-ifi^^ --------------------- — -_____________________________________________ --* - Ctwp«r8 lUver Bajjn Integrated Development Muter P * ,a onMASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT V0LVMlH] ——- Forestry This development option requires 6 candidates^—"" receive education at the MSc level Four are to enter service 1 1 are to teach undergraduate forestry' '2 5. Subject Forestry data are out of date Forestry units usedinUbTsturf— were delineated from LANDS AT-TM images dated 1986 8? fieldwork carried out between 1990 and 1993 Recommendation Demarcate, delineate, inventory, and map the 11 Nationalhi~ ~' r Forest Areas within the project area using the development option described in Annex 2E Forestry. • 1 6. Subject Soil erosion is a risk to the Master Plan area, yet national pokes-"I in factors that contribute to land misuse is weak Land tenure is a matter than has already been addressed as an issue that requires further development In addition, the technical means of controlling soil erosion in the Master Plan area are imperfectly understood. Recommendation The Soil Conservation Project should expand its research in order" that each soil group in the Master Plan area has a set of runoff parcels operating according to international research standards One of the outputs from the study should be a soil conservation guide It should view soil conservation not solely from the view of technical efficiency, but should consider also the impact of different practices upon farmer gross margins, rodent populations, and cultivation method 7. Subject Mining has considerable potential to damage ground and surface water The full impact of mining will not be known until prospecting is completed and the method of mining is decided , Recommendation Conduct an environmental impact assessment of the proposed mine before granting a concessionary licence to the company Part of that license should be a fee sufficiently large to cover the repair of untoward damage resulting to the environment_____________ 8. Subject The absence of comprehensive geologic information reduces trie ability to identify priorities for mining. Recommendation 1 Procure large-scale (1:15,000 1:20,000) colour vertical aenal photographs with at least 60 per cent stereoscopic overlap of minerals areas _____ _—' ______ - 9. Subject r i Knowledge about wildlife and wildlife habitat in the Master PU* area is inadequate for resource planning. --------- '^'7^ Recommendation Provide technical training to the Regional Wildlife Authority so doing, conduct studies of protected areas, including the following: (1) define the boundaries and proclaim new pro* areas, and (2) prepare management plans for new protect areas. This should include mechanisms for communitvh^. —' TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan 91MASTER PLAN development volume m conservation and private initiatives. Outside of protected areas, alternatives such as civet cat farming, crocodile farming, and wildlife ranching arc possible 10. Subject Marketing of bee products is below its potential. Habitat loss, pesticide uses and poor product preparation affect the industry. Recommendation Provide assistance to honey hunters to bring them into the fold of beekeepers This requires technical improvements to their basic methodologies Similarly, assist beekeepers to improve their marketing Much of this can be achieved by organising beekeepers' co-operatives Implement future studies of beekeeping practices, the effects of pesticides, and low- technolouv beekeeping II. Subject Fisheries development in the Master Plan area is hindered by a lack of information about the resource Nonetheless, many livelihoods depend on fishing Development options that ignore fisheries risk damaging an important sector of the economy. Recommendation Inaugurate a system of fisheries information to collect data on catch, effort, exploitation patterns, and capture methods Implement studies to better understand the attitudes of different ethnic groups towards fish Use this information to target marketing. Improve credit availability to the fish industry Establish a fisheries enforcement agency, provide ihe legislative foundations for regulation of the industry Evaluate low-cost, low-volume technical options for fish marketing to adjacent regions: improve the distribution and marketing infrastructure Encourage the formation of fishing and fisheries co-operatives. Improve extension services and training of fisheries personnel. Promote the sector and the transfer of technology to indigenous people. 12. Subject ---------------------------------4 Failure to totally clear reservoir areas of their biodegradable matter mav adversely affect water quality Rectf/TtmcndatrtfH Selkhorprotnexport’s recommendation to clear vegetation from Abobo reservoir was ignored. Dissolved oxygen, temperature, methanization, and the presence of HjS in the reservoir should be monitored In the meantime, the Master Plan recommends that reservoir areas be cleaned prior to filling. The timber should be harvested and the grass and brush burnt or otherwise disposed of 13. Subject Many diseases of humans tsetse, yellow fever ma! ana. Onchocerciasis, Schistosomiasis detract from the economic and social worth of the lower basin Many of these will worsen as a result of irrigation: malaria will become perennial instead of seasonal, tsetse will increase in accordance with the use of animal traction Recommendation. Disease could be a principal cause of project failure. All incoming TAMS-ULG Biro-Ako bo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan Chapter 8MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT v °lume hj settlers should be screened for hazardous diseases health centres with the capacity to give firm diagnoses and^ treatments of water-related diseases will need to be est hi the project vicinity. Health training and improved sanitat' be required if the chain of transmission between man and ^ V Ct T is to be broken The project should assume that Schisto ' ° could inhabit its canals, which need to be lined as a Dret^° •SM Mosquito nets should be treated with insecticide and be ft available Mosquito campaigns using DDT or other banned * insecticides should be proscribed. • ® ■---------------------------- - ----------------------- — 14. Subject Livestock productivity should be improved UMncrease a^^------------------------------------ draught power and to increase the quantity and quality of anima! products. Recommendation A four point programme of livestock improvement is proposed t0 improve the health of animals by the control and eradication of tsetse fly and improved nutrition, to develop the dairy sector to improve poultry production and to develop dairy coat production. TAMS-U1.G B.roAkobo River Buin ln,egr,ttd Development-)MerrerP^r, Cbaplff8 93KESERYM)
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