&
FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA
MINISTRY OF WATER RESOURCES
■
I
BARO-AKOBO RIVER BASIN
INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT
MASTER PLAN STUDY
| ■ tr'- v.’
FINAL REPORT
VOLUME Ilf
MASTER  PLAN DEVELOPMENT
MAY 1997
Ar ;
ULG CONSULT Al ;T: LTD
t z.-FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA MINISTRY OF WATER RESOURCES
BARO-AKOBO RIVER BASIN INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT 
MASTER PLAN STUDY
VOLUME III
MASTER PLAIN DEVELOPMENT
TAMS-ULG Bara-Akabo River Basin Integrated DevelopmentIINDEX OF VOLUMES AND ANNEXES
Volume I:................................. —* EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Volume II:RESOURCE BASE AND DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS
Volume III:........................................... Master Plan Development
Volume IV;PROJECT AREA MAPS
Volume V„............................................Pre feasibility studies ANNEXES
Annex 1A
Climatology
1.         WATER RESOURCES
Annex IB Hydrology
Annex IC
Annex ID ................... Ground Water
Flood Studies
Annex IE...
.......... Reservoir Operation Studies
Annex IF .................................. Sediment Studies
.Annex 1G
Water Resources Cosl Estimating
Annex IH ............................................Irrigation Projects
Annex II
Water Supply Projects
-Annex]]  Hydropower Projects 2.         NATURAL RESOURCES
Annex 2A
Land Evaluation
Annex 2B Soils and Soil Conservaiion
.Annex 2C Geology
.Annex 2DMineral Resources Annex 2EForestry
.Annex 2F Wildlife
Annex 2G                    Tourism Annex 2H Apiculture
Annex 21             Agriculture
Annex 2J 
Annex 2K  Fisheries
Annex 2L
3. SOCIO-ECONOMICS
Annex 3 A
Renewabl e E nergy ... Livestock
Population Aspects
Annex          jB
Socio-Ethnic          Groups          .Analysis 
Annex 3C Economic Infrastructures Annex 3D
Social Infrastructures
Annex  3E Economic  and Financial Analysis 
•Annex 3F Institutional Support
< ENVIRONMENT
Annex 4              Environment
TAMS-ULG Bum-Akobo River Basin latefratrd DevelopmenI Master Plan■MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT
VOLl'ME III
VOLUME III
MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT
1 'V M > I I ili.
ItjiiMfiF RitiitHi
'Mia ■vtrr MirMASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT
VOLUME III
1 INTRODUCTION1 Background
Project Area
Genera/..
C/imafe..................
/fryers.....................
/n/rasrrucfwre.........
CONTENTS
1
............ 1
J
4 ■
■■
■I r ?■ - - *****
- F
r
**
f ■ 4- * 4
1
2
f
F a
F
■
Popu/anon.. ...—
Land Use and Cropping.............
Critical Issues.
F F ■*
F F F
r
a
+2
......... *.*. ..2
3
.............. 3
..... .. 4
2,
IN VE N TO RY  F PRO JE CTS................ .............. ......... ...... .  *—-* • * *********** *  ****.....••
2.1         General
22
2.2.1
2.2 2
2.2.3
2.2 4
2.2.5
2.2.6
2.2.7
23
2.3.1
2.3.2
2.3.3
2.3.4
2.4
2 4.1
2.4.2
2.4.3
2.5
2.5.1 2.5.2
26
2.7
2.7.1 2.7.2
Food production           ....
/nfroduc/ion ...... < .............................................
/mprovement ro rainfed agricu/fure ............
/mgafed Agriculture........................... .... ..........
Apiculture.......................................... —
/Meries......... .......................................
£iw>sfodL.»<.......................................... ..... ......
ylgro-indusfries........ ~...................... ........... .
Natural Resource Projects.........
CoftAment managemen/ and PtToresfcnvon.
Bfi/d h/e and Tounsm........... Mineral resources,....
F F -
I
BenewaL/e energy....... .......... . Social Infrastructure
JFoter supp/y._........................
Hea/fh...............................
Hoads. ........... ......................
Hydro power
Generation, ....________ _____
Basin Transmission system ..
Mining___ _____ a____  _____
Environmental Sector
Operational Directive.
*4 4 4 4 4 e - - - 4-4- F F - s 4-4 4-+ F F - - - 4-4- - -a ft .j.B.4-4 *t4 *4 4 4
F **■■a■* — 
■ ■ r r
*F F + + + -
Adverse Zmpacrs andritem Midgarion,.,.......... .
3. INTEGRATED WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT 3.1         General.
3.Z.2
JJ.2
3 A3
32 33
3.3J 3.3.2
/nfrckAr cfion.. w.......... . „..
5wr/ace water resources.
Shorr/isfed schemes........
The HEC-5 Model
System Model for the Baro River Basin
/nrroducnort..... +....... ,......... .   r
//ydropowe r and irrigarion..................
■ ** b
5
-
■■■-
.17
17
17
.... 15
......... IS 20
.....20
20
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plin
■**.MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT
VOLUME IU
3.3. 3 Combined hydropower operation...................................................................... 2i
3 4 System Model for the Alwero River Basin ...................................................................... 22
3,5       System Model for the Gilo River  Basin .............................................................................. 22
4    MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT..............  ....................... ..  .. ■■ I      I
4,1       Main Planning Considerations............................................................................................. 24
J 2       Base Development Plan......................................................................................................  24
4.2.1         Summary...........................................................................................................24
4.2.2         Catchment management.................................................................. ............................. 25
4.2.3        Ramfed agriculture........................................................................................................ 25
4.2.4        Natural Resources......................................................................................................... 25
4.2.5        Infrastructure................................................ ..................... ................................ 25
4.2.6        A fwero irrigation scheme............................................................................................. 26
4  3     Large Wat er Resources Project s.....................................................................................   26
4.3.1         General...............................       ...............    ......................................       ............... 26
4.3.2        Irrigation Projects........................................................................................................... 27
4.3.3        Large and medium Hydropower Projects..................................................... .. 28
4.3.4         Small Projects............... ................................................................................................ 30
4.3.5        Summary of Decision process.................................... .................................................. J /
4.4 Planning Scenarios..................................................................................................................... 33
4.4.1        Introduction.................................................................................................................... 33
4.4.2        Base Development Plan - Scenario I.............................................. ..... 33
4 4.3 Scenario II - Hydropower for Basin - Small Holder Irrigation.......................... 35
4.4.4        Scenario III - Hydropower for Basin - Commercial Irrigation....................................... 35
4.4.5        Scenario TV- Hydropower for Basin and ICS -Smail Holder Irrigation........................36
4.4.6        Scenario V - Hydropower for Basin and ICS - Commercial Irrigation..................... .   36
4.4.7        Scenario VI - Fast track hydropower and commercial irrigation................................. 38
4 5 Selected Scenario......................................... .................................................................. .......... 38
4.5.1       Total investments......................................................................................................... 38
4.5.2         Base development................ ...................... .. ........................... .....
38
4.5.3         Hydropower..................... .... ................. ...... .......................................................... ,.,..3S
4.5.4         Irrigation......................................................................................................... 39
4.5.4        Selected scenario..............................................................................................39
4 6 Waler Use and Allocation.......................................................................................................... 41
4 6.1 Irrigated Agriculture ..................... ................... .......................... ........ ................... ........... 41
4.6.2         Hydropower. ............... ................................................... .......... .................................41
4.6.3         Water supply.................. .......................................................................................... 41
4.6.4         Environmental demand........... ....................... .................. ....................................... 41
4.6.5         Water balance........................................................................... ............................... 41
5. RECOMMENDED MASTER PLAN........................................................................................... 42
5 1       Master Plan Description....... ................................. ...................................................... 42
5.1.1         Scenario I...............................................................................................................  42
5.1.2         Scenario V...,................... ....................... .........................................................  .,..42
513          Total cost................................................................................................................  43
5 2       Logical Framework Analysis Matrix............... .......... ....................................................... 44
TAMMJLG Baro-Akobo River Buin Integrated Development Miner PlanMASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT
6.  INSTITUTIONAL SUPPORT .AND IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGY
VOLUME in
61 6.2
6.2.1
6.2.2
62.3
Introduction....................... .............................................. *.................. ’.............’........
Institutional Support....... ........................................ —.....................................................
Proposed Project Interventions and Possible Timescale-------------......................
Project Implementation at Federal and Regional Level................................. -.........
Role for Basin Co-ordinating/Management Unit - Short and medium term
...49
...49
.. 49
...49
...50
...51
6.2.4
6.3
Further developments................................................... -■
...51
Implementation Strategy........... ............................ ■■..........
...51
6.3   I
Constraints........ .............................................................
...51
6.3.2
6.3.3
6.3.4
6.3.5
Management aspects of project implementation............
■ - - 4
...51
Implementation of principal project interventions
...51
Agency  for  municipal  and  rural  civil  works............
...51
Community Participation................................................
...51
7.   PRE-FEASIBILITY STUDIES-------------
8.  RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FURTHER STUDIES AND INVESTIGATIONS...51
TABLES
Table 2-1 Road development programme....................................... .................... -12
....SI
Table 3-1 Summary of surface water resources ...................................... ........................................ -18
Table 4-1 Scenario 1, Base Development Plan, Investment Schedule................................. ............... 34
Table 4-2 Hydropower for the Basin, Smallholder Irrigation, Scenario FL, Costs  (USS million)
............................................................................................................................................. 36
Table  4-3  Hydropower  for  the  Basin,  Commercial  Irrigation  Projects,  Scenario  HI,  Costs 
(USS million)............................................... ..... .............................................................................36
Table  4-4  Hydropower  for  the  Basin  and  ICS,  Smallholder  Irrigation,  Scenario  FV,  Costs 
(USS million)................................................................................. .. ............................................. 36
Table 4-5 Hydropower for the Basin and ICS, Commercial Irrigation Projects, Scenario V,
Costs (USS million)..................... ........................................... ................. „................... ................ 38
Table 4-6 Maximum Investment Scenario, Scenario VI, Costs (USS million).......................................38
Table 4-7 Water balance ......................................................................................................................41
Table 5-1 Master Plan Investment Schedule, Sum of Scenario 1 & V, Costs (USS millinn) 43
FIGURES
Figure 2-1
Figure 2-2
Figure 2-3
Figure 2-4
Figure 2-5
Figure 4.1
Figure 4,2
Figure 4-3
Land Capacity and Farming System............ ........ ............................................. ........... 6
Potential Irrigation Projects........................... ........................................ ............................$
Water Supply Programme..............
...................... ............ ............... jj
Roads Development Programme......................................... ...............,............................ j ]
Dam Sites.................................................................................t
jy
Implementation Programme of the Alwero Scheme ........................................................26
Implementation of Bare Right Bank Irrigation Project...................................................... 28
Alternative 1 and 2, Implementation Program for Medium & Large Hydropower
Projects......................................................... ................................................. Figure  4-1  Implementation  Programme  for  Small  Hydropower  Projects.
Figure 4-5 Master Plan Development Decision Tree.............................
Figure 4-6 Base Development Plan, Scenario I...................................
TAMS-ULG Barit-Akobo EUvtr Bruin Integrated Develdpmeai Master Plan
...29 ...30
.32 ...34MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT
VOLUME G]
Figure 4-7 Scenario II, Hvdropower for the Basin, Smallholder Irrigation............... . ............. 3fi Figure 4-8 Scenario III. Hydropower for the Basin. Commercial Imgation Projects
Figure 4-9 Hydropower for Basin and ICS, Smallholder Imgation, Scenario IV
3e
Figure 4-10 Selected Scenario for the Master Plan, Scenario V............................................... .38
Figure 4-11 Maximum Investment Scenario, Scenario \1
........................... .38
Figure 5 1 Summary of the Investment Schedule of the Proposed Master Plan (I & V) 44
Figure 5-2 Mas ter Plan Development....................................................................... ............. .... 44
TAMS-ULG Buro-Akobo River Bain Integrated Development Master PlanMASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT
VOLUME III
1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 
Background
The  Et
hiopian  Highlands 
is  one
of
t
he
worl
d’s 
most
important
wat
ersheds  sup
plying
two  greal
rivers,
the  White  and  Bl
ue  Nile
Th
e
riv
ers 
that
form
the  basi
n  of
the  project
area,
the  Baro,
the Akobo, the Alwero and the Gilo drain into the White Nile
This  Master  Plan  Study,  one  of  twelve  to  be  commissioned  by  the  Government  of  Ethiopia, will assist Ethiopia to determine lhe development potential of the Baro-Akobo basin,
The Water Resources  Development Authority  signed a contract with TAMS-ULG for the Baro Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan Project in June 1995. The studies were initiated in July 1995
In  accordance  with  the  Terms  of  Reference  for  the  Consultancy  Services,  the  output  of  this study includes
1          A review of the existing data base
2          A portfolio of prioritised development projects
3          A Master Plan for the integrated development of the basin
4. Information and data required for co-operative development undertakings 
with downstream countries
5           Prefeasibility level studies of selected high-priority water resources projects.
Volume II presents  the studies  of the resources  of the project area and the development options  available over a range of sectors, but with particular emphasis  on water resources driven development The essential output of the studies  reported in Volume II is  a range of economically  viable development projects  and programmes  that can form the building blocks of the Integrated Master Plan for the project area. The evolution of lhe Master Plan and its elaboration into a phased programme of development is  the subject of this  volume Volume III.
1.2      Project Area
1.2.1   General
The Baro-Akobo basin lies  in the south-west of Ethiopia between latitudes 5° 31' and 10° 54* north and longitude 33° and 36° 17 east The Master Plan area, which is shown in the various maps  of Volume IV, covers  an area of some 75,912 km2 The western, north-western and south-western boundaries of lhe area are formed by the Sudanese border, while the north-east, cast and south-east borders  are formed by  the waiershed of the basin which lies  within the administrative boundaries  of Regions  6. 4 and 1! Region 12 is  wholly  contained within the
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Baiio Integrated Development Master Plan
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Chapter Imaster plan DEVELOPMENT
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project area These are Benshangul and Gumuz, Gambela, Oromiya and the Southern Natrons and National it its Peoples’ Regions.
The eastern pan of the project area consists  of the liilly  upland areas  of the Filawrariy Mekonnen Plateau and the Masongo Range This  area, which forms  the upper catchment of the basin, is bounded m the west by a senes of escarpments which fall steeply to the high [llubabor Plain From the base of the escarpments, the plain descends  westward to the low Ulubabor Plain, which inclines  gently  westward and is  prone to inundation and waterlogging during the wet season from June to September
1.2.2    Climate
The Baro-Akobo basin is  a particularly  well watered region of Ethiopia Gore in the project area has an average annual total rainfall of over 2.200 mm and most of the upper basin has an annual total of more lhan 1,800 mm A significant proportion of rain failing during storms  is lost by run-off and the occasional light rain falling out of season when soil and foliage are hot is  lost by  evaporation Overall the "effective" rainfall is  about 60% during the rainy  season down to nil in the dry season This gives an effective average rainfall of 750 mm annually in the lowlands rising to about 1.250 mm in the highland
1.2.3    Rivers
The major rivers  within the Baro-Akobo basin are Baro and its  tributaries. (Birbir, Geba. Sore), Alwero, Gilo with its  tributaries  (Gecheb, Bitun, Beg) and AJcobo with its  tributary Kashu The general direction of the rivers is from the east to the west The rivers rise in the highlands (2000-3500m) situated in the east of the area and flow to the Gambela plain (500m) in the west
1.2.4    Infrastructure
The Baro-Akobo area is traversed by a network of all-weather roads, some 1,058 km in all, but the road density is low compared with many African countries The region is connected to Addis Ababa by scheduled air services to Metu, Gambela, Dembidolo and Mizan Tcferi The roads Addis-Gambela, Addis-Asosa, Jimma-Mizan and Gore-Tepi are all well maintained, al- weather roads  The Gambcla-Dembidolo road, as  others  on the lower plains, is  in need of maintenance Numerous smaller roads, accessible only in the dry season, cross the area The western part of the area is least well served by roads.
Electrification is not well developed within the study area with electric power largely confined to the towns. Generation is  from small diesel power plants  of 15-30 kW A 5 MW hydroelectric power station was built at Sor in 1990 this is connected to Gambela via a 66 kV transmission line
Provision of town water supply  is  underdeveloped and in rural areas  virtually  non-existent with water frequently being earned long distances, by women and children. Rivers, used as water sources, art becoming increasingly  polluted by  soap and human waste, particularly downstream from refugee camps, local ed at Bonga on the Baro River, Pugnido on the Gilo River and Dima on the Akobo River
TAMS-VLG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
Chapter 1MASTER PLAN DEVELO
PMENT
VOLUME
 ni
7.2.5    Population
Ethnically   the   region   is 
exceedingly 
heterogeneous   with
Anuak,
Majang
er,   Nucr.   A
nfilo,
Kome.  Masongo.  I.onge,
Opuo.  Oromo,
Amhara.  Gimira,  Sh
ekocha,
Bench.
Gidame,  Me
enit,
Mao and Beni-Shangul people all inhabiting the project area Amongst these people the Nuer, Me’enit and Shekocha people are semi-nomadic  pastoralists  while most other groups  are sedentary agriculturists or hunter-gatherers
The total present population in the basin is estimated at about 2.2 million people of which the rural population accounts  for about 92% and the remainder is  classified as  urban The basin population is unevenly distributed.
Just 9% of the total population inhabits  the lower basin which accounts  for 42% of the total basin surface area and much of which is  subject to flooding The area, which includes  the Gambela report and the northern pan of the southern region up to Gesha and Shasha Weredas, has a very low density of population, with less than 15 persons per km1 There is a zone of medium population density  in to the Western fringe of the Upper basin, from the North, including the Asosa region to the centre including a major part of Oromiya towards Sigmo Wercda to the North and Gesha Tinishu Wereda to the South Oromiya in the central part of the upper harin which accounts  for 31 percent of the land has  60 percent of the population
1.2.6     Land Ust and Cropping
The study area can be broken down into
•     flood plain and lower piedmont below the 500 m contour
•    the escarpment zone
•     the highland zone above about 2,000 m
The total cultivated crop area in the Baro-Akobo basin is at least S23,O8O ha, with 97% of this area falling in the upper basin lllubabor and Welega together account for three quarters of the total cropland This is the highland zone and reflects the high density of arable fanners on the land above 1,800 m This  conforms  very  closely  to the national average as  95% of the total cultivated area in Ethiopia is in the highlands
Nearly  all farmers  practice mixed farming with rotation of crops  Cereals  dominate the crop range accounting for 75 % of crop area, the proportion is  somewhat greater in Kaffa, Asosa and the lower basin and less in Welega. In the two largest zones, lllubabor and Welega, maize is the most popular cereal but in Asosa and the lower basin, sorghum displaces maize, perhaps on account of its  greater reliability  under drought conditions, Teff, the source of the staple food of the highland people, is  particularly  important in lllubabor with more than a quarter of the crop area, but much less so in other zones.
The other crop of importance is coffee, occupying more than a quarter of crop area in Welega, but also significant in lllubabor, Kefficho-Shekicho and Bench-Maji, but very  little or nil in other zones This crop is the only cash crop of importance in the area at present A wide range of very minor crops is produced in the area mainly for local consumption and to enrich the
TAMS-IHLG Baro-Akata River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
3
Chapter !master plan development
volume m
diet There are two tea and two coffee estates established as state farms and two estates neaj Abobo ptoducing cotton
The Upper Escarpment is mainly forest but this is becoming under increasing pressure from farmers  tnanv  of whom are practising shifting cultivation This  is  leading to rapid and uncontrolled depletion of forest cover in the catchment. Between 1973 and 1988 forest cover in the study  area fell from a total of 70,000 km: to 35,000 km*, this  rate of depletion has almost certainly continued from that dale until the present.
On the Gambela plain below 500 m only about six years in ten have a dependable rainfall of at least four months and sufficient to support good yields of most annual crops From the rainfall data for liang, crops would fail almost one year in two but this more critical situation may be the consequence of less reliable data rather than less reliable rainfall
.Above about 1,000 m the dependable growing season foi annual crops is very reliable and failures would occur only about one year in twenty, and even longer than that above 2,000 m
In an average season and better, a second rainfed crop should yield well during a dependable growing season of seven or more months.
1.3      Critical Issues
Cereal production in Ethiopia is showing a long-term decline on a per capita basis With 80%
of the population engaged in agriculture, Ethiopia is unable to feed itself with grain Shortfalls 
are being made up with imports
The study area is frequently seen as an area of great, unrealised potential, under-populated by Ethiopian standards, and with plenty  of land and water Also the Russian Study  has demonstrated that the technical hydropower potential of the Lower Basin alone is in excess of
1,500  MW  The  gross  potential  area  available  for  irrigation  amounts  to  about  600,000  ha. from wiiich a net area of 483,000 ha can be developed for irrigation
The highlands in the project area are an area of good rainfall with the potential to produce an grain surplus with improved agricultural practice The lower plain, with more erratic rainfall is an area of vulnerability Overall, the area should be capable of feeding the 2.2 million people living within it. but wiih population expected to grow to 5 3 million people there would be need for huge changes to agriculture, leading to a massive yield increase, for the basin to remain self sufficient in food supply.
Irrigation reduces the risk foT the farmer; but, if this is all it does, it is not cost effective Because of the high cost of engineering interventions, in order for them io be effective, they have to be coupled with greaily increased productivity, with higher value, non-gjain, crops So one is not looking at a situation where one is providing water to get a subsistence fanner over a dry period, one is looking at a change in the entire farming system
The soil erosion is  a severe risk  to the Master Plan, yet National Policy  in factors  that contribute to land misuse is weak, land tenure will be addressed as an issue to reverse the soil degradation as well as to encourage private investors to irrigation commercial farming.
TAMS-LLG Bano-Akobo River Basin lntegriled Development Muter Plan
Chapter 1MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT
VOLUME Ill
INVENTORY OF PROJECTS
2.1 General
The development projects available in the key sectors in the project area are discussed in some detail in chapter 4 of Volume II and in the associated Annexes  The more important project inventories  are summarised in this  section as  a precursor to the formulation of development scenarios.
2.2      Food production
2.2.1   Introduction
Not only is the basin $ population expected to grow from 2 2 million to 5 3 million by the year 2035. but the national target is to increase per capita food consumption by one third from
6  6MJ day to 8 SMJ/day In order to provide this additional food, production in the basin must increase by 300% in the next 35 years if the basin is to remain self-sufficient This increase can only be achieved by improving farming techniques and increasing the land area under cultivation
The present land use of the total basin area of 75,912 km2 is as foUows:
It can be seen that the area presently under cultivation amounts to only 8% of the total area. This study has shown that the total area that is potentially suitable far agriculture to be 32,800 km , or 43% of the total In the sections that follow developments are proposed that will more
1
1
than satisfy regional food demands which involve the cultivation of some 9,200 km  of new land, so that by the year 2035 half the potentially suitable land will be cultivated
2.2.2   Improvement to rainfed agricuitu re
Introduction
The great majority of the basin’s food supply is provided at present by rainfed agriculture,
w hich at present occupies a total area of some 610,000 ha The increase in food production by means of the improvement and extension of rainfed agriculture in the project area is of
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin In unrated Development Master Plan
5
Chapter 2master plan development
VOLUME hj
fundamental importance and has been shown in these studies to be attractive economically with internal rates of return in excess of 33 6% (sec Vol IL Chapter 5. Section 5 3.1). The allocation of resources to this sector is thus justified economically and will cover the food
needs of the area white creating a tradable surplus, thus increasing rural cash income The tw0 components of the project comprise extension of the cultivated area and improvement of
farming techniques
Extension
Analyses of population, farming systems, population support capacity of the land, current land
use and land capability had indicated that the total potential of land suitable for rainfed
agriculture amounts to about 2 8 million hectares The distribution of this area by farming
system is shown on the land capability- map. Figure 2-1 It will be noted that the potential for improved rainfed agriculture is predominantly in the Highlands
The recommended development project for rainfed agriculture starts from the existing area of about 610,000 ha and builds up to just over 1.4 million ha over the 35 year planning horizon, that is to about half the potential area of suitable land, an overall increase of over 200% The average increase thus amounts to a little under 23,000 ha per year, which is considered realistic. When fully developed, the main crops will consist of maize, sorghum, leff, pulses and coffee, which together will account for over 90% of the developed area
Improvement
Improvement to fanning techniques, which include the more widespread use of fertilisers, improved soil conservation and the use of higher yield seed vaneties will increase the
productivity will result in greatly increased crop yields For instance the yield of maize is projected to increase, by these means, from 1.28 t/ha to 4 Otha
Conc/wsion
The improvements to rainfed agriculture that have been proposed are realistic and cannot only meet the food demands of the population but can produce a surplus for export Total food production should increase from an annual production of 514,000 tonnes at present to 3 9 million tonnes in 2035.
2.13 irrigated Agriculture
General
The studies have shown that there is a large potential for irrigated agriculture in the Gambela Plain in the lowei basin Excluding the western portion subject to persistent flooding, the gross potential area available amounts to about 600,000 ha from which a net area of 480.000 ha can be developed for irrigation This includes low-lying areas with suitable soil characteristics that can be economically protected from flooding
The location of the potential irrigation areas is shown in Figure 2-2
A screening study was undertaken covering ihe whole area of irrigation potential in which 14 irrigation projects were defined and ranked Of these 14 schemes the four most attractive were identified as follows;
TAMS-ULG Bnro-Akobo River Bixin Integrated Pevelupnml Muter Plan
Chapter 1Baro-Akoixa River Basin Integrated Development
Master Plan Project
Figure 2-1 LAND CAPACITY
and FARMING SYSTEMS
IT
7‘
TAMS Consultants. Inc (U SA.) and
□LG Consultants Ltd. (U.K )
For the Ministry of WHler Resources of the Government of Ethiopia
Produced on
Sources
G1S Filename
October 17, 1996
Modi led from Soil and SuitaMty Maps. MoA(1987)
leap apr
13’
35-
W3ETHIOPIA
Baro-Akot>o River Basin Integrated Development
Master Plan Project
Figure 2-2 POTENTIAL IRRIGATION
PROJECTS
> Oem Sri*
’L
Z
1
4
5
4
7.
I
For  the  Mnistry  of  Water  Resources
of the Government of Ethiopia
Produced on October 17/1996
Sources TAMS-UIG; AROCOfSoyuz; Topo (1: 250 000) GlS Filename: damsrte.ftpfMASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT
VOLUME ra
Locution
Bare River. Right Bank gravity fed from Itang Dant
4lwero Project, fed by gravity for the Abobo Dam under construction Upstream Alwero Project, fed by gravity from the Dumbong Dam Gilo River, Right Bank, fed by gravity from the Gilo 2 Dam
Total
Net Area (hi)
50,900
10.400 15.000
47,000 123 JOO
This  total  net  area  amounts  to  about  25%  of  the  full  potential  and  is  about  the  maximum  area that    can    be    put    under    irrigation    within    the    35    year    planning    period,    assuming    an implementation  rate  building  up  to  4,000  ha/year,  a  rate  of  development  difficult  to  achieve The  location  of  the  four  projects  selected  for  Master  Planning  purposes  are  shown  on  figure 2-2.
The  economic  studies  given  in  Volume  II  and  Annex  1H  of  irrigated  agriculture  gives  the following results
Atwero/Abobo Dam Project (Ongoing).
This project gives an economic rate of return of 11 4% assuming a mix of food crops for local consumption and higher value crops  for export out of the basin This  economic  analysis included the cost of the completed Abobo Dam and the main canal These are in fact sunk costs  and if these sunk  costs  are ignored, the rate of return for completing the imgation project rises to 25%.
Ahvero/Dubong Project
This  project  for  rice  monoculture  at  a  cropping  intensity  of  200%  gives  an  economic  rate  of return of 10%
Boro Right Bank/ltang Project
This  project, which comprises  a phased development of four sub-projecis, will produce a mix of food crops, small holder sugar, cotton and some commercial sugar The overall economic rate of return is estimated at 12 6%.
Commercial Orientated Agriculture
This agricultural scenario was also tested on the Baro Right Bank/ltang Dam Project but this 
time with a significantly increased commercial sugar operation This gave an economic 
internal rate of return of 18 %
Conclusions
The conclusions that may be drawn from these results are -
1     The  ongoing  Alwero/Abobo  Irrigation  project  should  be  completed  It  is  recommended that  this  be  given  a  priority  since  it  has  a  high  rate  of  return  and  it  provides  Lhe  earliest possible significant increase to food security in the area
2     Dev  elopment  of  rice  monoculture  in  large  irrigation  projects  is  not  economically  justified and should not be included in the Master Plan
TAMS-ULG BaroAkabo River Basin Integrated Development .Muter Plan
9
Chapter 2MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT
3    New  large  irrigation  development  including  a  substannal  proportion  of  commercial  estai agriculture  is  economically  justified  and  private  sector  involvement  should  be  activ^ sought and encouraged for this purpose
4     New  large  lmgarion  projects  without  significant  commercial  involvement  arc  margin economically, but may be justified in the interests of food security objectives
A realistic, but still ambitious  rate of implementation of irrigated agriculture would be 2000 ha'year It is recognised that in certain circumstances it is possible to achieve faster rates than this, but this  is  considered an appropriate figure to adopt for planning purposes  For ibis development strategy, the first two projects  have been identified as  the most appropriaie namely  the Baro-Rivet Right Bank  and the Alwero-Abobo projects  These two projects together can be developed over the planning penod ai an implementation rate of about 2000 ha/vear At full development these two irrigation projects combined will produce over 80,000 tonnes of maize and 20,000 tonnes of sorghum each year, in addition to 240,000 tonnes of sugar cane and 33,000 tonnes of cotton
2.2.4    Apiculture
The proposed apicultural projects are aimed at assisting honey hunters and bee keepers to exploit bees in a more susiamable and economically beneficial way. The establishment of a beekeepers co-operative will improve the marketing of honey and wax These projects are modest in scope and investment but will secure the present production and enhance its value
2.2.5   Fisheries
Insufficient data exists for the formulation of any specific fisheries projects other than those of data collection However, once such data are available, the Master Plan envisages future developments as.
•   development of capture fisheries in the basin’s rivers
•   development of fisheries in the future reservoirs - hydropower and irrigation - recommended by this Master Plan
•   development of aquaculture
Of these capture fisheries is the most attractive initial development, followed by the exploitation of reservoirs As an example of the contribution fisheries in reservoirs can make, a combined hydropower and irrigation development of Bare and Itang reservoirs could produce over 1,200 tonnes of fish per year Although the potential for aquaculture is great, so arc the constraints and the development of aquaculture is not foreseen until the demand for fish approaches the supply from rivers and reservoirs.
2.2.6   Livestock
Livestock projects are primarily aimed at improving the health of animals and improving their productivity Specific projects recommended are as follows;
•   improvement of draught cattle
•   promotion of small scale milk production
•   dairy goat development
TAMS-ULG Biro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Muter Plan               ” Chapter 1
]OVOLUME III
1> LAS TER PLAN DEVELOPMENT
• smallholder poultry improvement
All these projects will require the collection of additional data Livestock projects are
inextricably linked to agricultural developments, as agriculture depends heavily on the draught
power of cattle for ploughing and carting, and livestock will increasingly depend on
agriculture for a secure source of food
2.2.7   Agro-industria
Commercial sugarcane factory
If the large-scale irrigation projects summarised in 2.2 3 above are developed, particularly the
Baro scheme, sufficient sugar cane will be produced to justify the construction of a
commercial sugar cane factory A factory with a 4,500 t/day capacity, together with an ethanol
plant, would costjusi over SI million
Small scale development
The products identified and proposed for manufacture by small-scale agro-industries in the
project area are those for which value added can be gained by local processing These could
comprise cereals milling, oilseeds milling and sugar cane crushing Details of such
developments are given in the appendices of Annex 3E,
2.3       Natural Resource Projects
2.3.1 Catchment management and Reforestation
The magnitude of annual soil loss  in Ethiopia is  currently  estimated to be between 1,5 to 2.0 billion tonnes  The consequence is  that agriculture productivity  declines  of about 1 percent per annum
Although the Baro-Akobo basin is  by  no means  the worst example of soil loss, nevertheless land degradation occurs  in various  forms  throughout the project area, including water-caused soil erosion, chemical, physical and biological degradation,
Soil erosion reduces  plant productivity  by  decreasing soil depth, thereby  reducing the capacity of sites  to store water for plant use, and by  selectively  removing clays  and the fine material that absorb soil nutrients essential to plant processes
The catchment management programme proposed consists of two approaches
1            Withdrawing   seriously   effected   soils   and   steep   land   from   agricultural   use   and implementing a reforestation programme in these areas, and
2          undertaking soil conservation practices
The main soil conservation practices proposed include
•    Development of grass strips in undertaking land planted to annual crops
•    Construction bunds in rolling terrain in annual crops,
•    Terracing in steeper terrain
TAMS-llLG Baru-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Muter Plan
Chapter 2MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT
VOLUME in
The total cost of the programme including studies and inventory work is estimated at about USS 115 million through the 35 year planning period
2. J. 2 Hr id life and Tourism
Wildlife has declined dramatically in the Baro-Akobo basin in recent decades and is now in a state of crisis. Although the benefits of a healthy wildlife population are intangible, wildlife is a pre-condition of the development of tourism Because of a lack of data, the projects recommended in the Wildlife Report (Annex F) are confined to data collection and planning studies.
The recommendations of the report on Tourism are designed to promote 'ecotourisnf and to provide the conditions in which private investment in tourist facilities would eventually become attractive Two projects are specifically proposed, one at Lake Bishan Wak’a Hayk in the upper basin and one, the development of wildlife and canoe safaris, in the lower basin
2.3.3 Mineral resources
The Raro-Akobo basin is blessed with many mineral resources, mostly in the upper basin At present there is a little small-scale mining of gold, platinum and iron ore Five development options have been identified, for gold mining at DuL Bunuya-Ankori, Tulu Kapi and in the Akobo basin, and for platinum at Yubdo All these projects would be suitable for investment
by the private sector. However no data is available for the prioritisation or detailed planning of these or other projects: further exploration work is required at potential sites before the
viability of exploitation can be assessed
2.3.4 Renewable energy
The study identified an urgent need for the development of renewable energy in the basin so that future energy demands can be met on a sustainable basis. In the absence of sufficient data for the formulation of specific plans the following sector plans are recommended:
•   establishment of foclwood plantations to supply sufficient fuel to meet the demands of a growing population and so to protect the forests.
•   development of local electricity supplies by means of mini and micro hydropower, wind and solar energy'
•   development of biogas plants to provide energy and fertiliser
•   integration of all of the above
Further studies are required to develop specific projects
2.4 
Social Infrastructure
2- 4.1
Water supply
A programme of interventions  in the water supply  sector in the Baro-Akobo basin has  been developed io meet the needs  of the population which is  projected to grow from the present number of about 2 2 million to 5.3 million in the year 2035
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Mauer Plan
12
Chapter 2MASTER PLAN development
volume 111
The programme includes urban supplies to the following population centres -
♦    9 Main Towns
♦     15 Medium Towns
•     28 Small Towns
•     7 Villages
The town locations arc shown on Figure 2-3 In addition, the rural water supply requirements of the 68 weredas making up the project area have been developed. The total cost of the interventions is estimated at USS 201 million, as detailed in Tables 1-11 to 1-25 of Annex 11 The average cost of production of the main town supplies is estimated at US S 0.37 / m  The
1
small town and rural supply production costs are estimated at US J 0 12/ m’.
It is recommended that the water supply programme be implemented by the year 2035, with an immediate focus  on the main towns  The average annual expenditure for the programme is estimated at about $5.2 million/year It should be noted that water supply  programmes  for several of the main towns, including Gore, Asosa and Gambela has already been started
2.42 Health
The study  of the current health situation of the basin's  population has  recommended that to meet the needs  of the new health strategy1 and the growing populations! new health centres and 196 new health posts  will have to be provided by  2035 It is  also recommended that the larger towns  would be equipped with sewage collection and treatment facilities, as  part of the water supply  programme
2.43 Roads
The road development programme proposed for the project area is  shown on Figure 2-4 It is proposed that the programme will be implemented in four phases  The elements  making up each phase and the corresponding estimated costs are summarised in Table 2-1
TAMS-DLC fiaro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
Chapter 2Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development
Master Plan Project
Figure 2-3
WATER SUPPLY PROGRAMMES
Urtun Waiur Supply Programme*
fl Mun Tcm
« Ottwif To*m
« Lfetn Sila
Raed Nehvwk
-------- Major Road
■”*— Mina* Road
- Proposed Ado mb Rood
1 ; Wercdp Ho
u*-
TAWS  Consultants.  Inc.  (U  SA)  and
ULG Consultants Ltd. (U.K.)
For the Ministry of Water Resources
of the Government of Ethiopia
Produced on October 17 r 1996
Sources TAMS4JLG; ARDCO/Soyuz. Topo (1:250 000) QIS Flename damerte.apr
ar
34“
33’ETHIOPIA
Baro-Akobo River Basin
Integrated Development
Master Plan Project
Figure 2-4-
W
- ROADS DEVELOPMENT
PROGRAMME
■
------ teeing »cod io be upondedm pho*» '
—  —   b*72hd   fa   b*   cmattKM   ph*«   I Exnfjpg ruad fc tx upgraded m ph»= H
” — Rn»l to tw COfHfrUdwd In ph** 11 ------ tuiinfl load to t» upg«xdad in phew ■<
—’ Ottwf
*0X1
)Roxi bection n re» IVnl I. CNigUr 5)
u
—     Lrn it ur Rfc*d Soctxj-n ~11 i We<edn No
« Ttwn
TAMS Con suit ante, Inc. (U SA.) and ULG Consultants Ltd. (U.K.)
For the Ministry of Water Resources of the Government of Ethiopia
Produced  on  July  16,  1996
Sources:            TAMS-ULG GIS Filename, rotds.aprk &master plan development
VOLUME HI
Table 2-1 Road development programme
Phase
Length
(Km)
Cost
(million Birr)
Total Cost
(million Birr 1
-phase J1997-2005
(2) GambeLa -Jikawo
(3) Gambela -Mem
(] 0) Mctu Jet-Jet So Gimbi Other key regional roads
Minor local roads Total
120
176
152
Nil
395
W3
70 3                       77 33 190 8                     209 88
56 2                       61.82
98.7                     108 57 416.0                    457.60
Phan II2006-2015
(4) Gambela -Abobo -Gog (5) Gog-Dima Road Jet Other Kcv regional roads
Minor local roads
Total
132
165
335
655
1287
49 0
90.7
77.9
163.7
381.3
53.90
99 77
85 69
180.07
419.43
Phase Hl 2016 -2025
(8) Gambcla-DonbidolchChanka (7) Gidami-InangoRte 52
(9) Gidami-Bambasi Other key regional roads
Minor local roads
Total
152
90
114
420
655
1431
5 91
41 0
48 4
97 6
163.7
409.8
65.01
45.10
53 24
107 36
180.07
450 78
Phase IV2026-2025* Other key regional roads
Minor local roads
Total
745
655
NW
173 1
163 7
336.8
190 41
180 07
370.48
1 Work actually ongoing
2 Approximately one half of the proposed section is considered here (90km) in Phase LI as a linkage between sections (8) and (9), the second half will be considered as a key regional road and included in the item "other key regional roads
This phase does not include the upgrading of sections built initially to lower standards, during the 3 first phases but this could be appropriate dunng the implementation as a result of expanding economic activity'.
Total capital costs for each phase are tabulated below
Total Capital Cost US S million
Phase I
1997 -2005
72 3
Phase 11
PhaseIH
Phase IV
2006-2015
2016-2025
2026-2035
66.3
71.2
58.4
TAMS-ULG Biro-Akobo River Basin Intejraietl Dotlop weal Master Plan
16
Chapter 2MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT
2.5   Hydropower
2.5.1   Generation
V °l UME Qj
The   studies   have   indicated   that   the   Baro-Akobo   basin   presents   particularly   f
avourab[t
conditions  for hydropower development, both small, medium and large All the projects identified in previous planning studies of the basin were reviewed and ranked, most of them are shown in Figure 2-5. The large and medium size projects are too large for the projected electricity  demands  within the basin and must be justified within the context of ihe interconnected system Several of the medium and large-scale hydropower projects appear to be more attractive that some of the candidate projects under consideration by EELPA in their generation expansion plan
These projects, which should be considered in the Master Planning, are
Project
Installed Capacity (MW)
Cost (USS/kWh)
GebaAl+2
183
1,348
Baro-AI+2
259
1,214
Birbir A+R
508
1,890
Sor A+R
65
2,098
Kashu
60
1,473
Total
1,075
1,624
The above costs include those of connecting the projects to the interconnected system
Several medium and small hydropower projects in the basin have been identified for meeting local basin demands if none of the medium and large projects are implemented These projects are competitive with alternative local sources of electricity such as diesel plants and are also competitive with supplies from the ICS
The more favourable projects in this category are'
Project
installed Capacity (MW) Energy Cost (US & kMTt)
Kashu
60
0 040
Gumero
50
0 048
Bare A-1
40
0 053
2.5.2  Basin Transmission system
As the economic development of the basin progresses, there will be a need for a network of transmission lines  in ihe basin Already  EELPA has  planned to tie the basin to the Interconnected System (ICS) at three strategically located points In the North of the basin a 132-kV transmission line from Ghido (near the Finchaa power plant connection), to Nekempte and Ghimbi is scheduled for 1999 In the central pan of the basin a 132-kV transmission to connect the Sor region at Metu to Bedele by year 2000 is under study In the South of the basin, the connection to the ICS is planned for year 2001, with the construction of a 132-kV lint from. Jimma to Bonga and Mizan.
TAMSAJLG Bln^Atobo River Bisln Integrated Development Malfer Plin
17Baro-Akobo River Basin
Integrated Development
Master Rian Project
Figure 2-5
0AM SITES
fta*0 Standard*
-------- Paved Aowd
----- Al Weather Road
— Dry Wq tfhflf Road
-------- Traci
Undewlficd
-------- Pvcoowd Access Road1° C^m 5<e
i Were da Ho
Riv«f
♦   Oam See
•    Tcwn
TAMS   Consultants,   Inc   (USA)   and GLG Consultants Ltd (U K.)
For ihe Ministry of Water Resources of the Government of Ethiopia
Produced on:
Sources
July 20, 1906
.
TAMS4JLG, ARDCtXSoyvu TopoU
GlSFiename: dwnske.apr
33‘
3**r
1
1_-
■IMASTER plan development
VOLUME III
Independently  of the construction of new power plants  in the Baro-Akobo basin, it is I'ecoinn’ended that a network  of transmission lines  connect the various  load centres  of the basin To that end. a loop through the northeastern pan of the basin is suggested This region covering the highlands near Ghimbi, Yubdo is the most densely populated area and continue to be so during the horizon of the Master Plan It is  therefore likely  that the fastest growing demand will come from that area as  already  anticipated by  EELPA The plan recommends  to initiate a transmission line from the Sor region, tie., Metu and Gore, to Ghimbi Although no route has  been selected an alignment that would closely  follow the existing main road would facilitate construction and maintenance. It would also enable allow the connection of the major towns along the way The plan also recommends to close the loop by also connecting Ghimbi io Gulisso, Yubdo and Dembidolo which is already connected to Gambela and the existing 66- kV transmission line Gambela-Metu. The construction of this  first extension of approximately $30 km is anticipated to take 6 years at a cost of USS 67 million
The second extension recommended by  the plan should involve the connection between the Sor Region and the southern part of the basin in the vicinity of Tepi and Mizan where the tie to rhe ICS is  anticipated by  year 2001 The construction of those MO km is  expected to last approximately  three years  at a cost of USS 24 million This  work  should start at the completion of the first extension in 2005
The third network  extension to be recommended for construction in the short-term of the Master Plan would be to bring electric  power in rhe southwestern region of the basin The proposed transmission line would connect Gambela to Abobo, Gog and Pugnido This extension should eventually  form a loop by  connection Gog to Tepi. The construction of this Line of 240 km through difficult terrain particularly from Gog to Tepi is expected to take close to 10 years at a cost USS 47 million.
The 710 km of transmission lines  to be implemented over the next 20 years  will be the backbone of the basin electrical network  and will become the Stan of a rural electrification programme.
L6 Mining
As has been shown in Annex 2D, considerable potential exists in the Basin for the large-scale commercial mining of gold, platinum and iron ore Mineral development and exploitation will be a private sector activity  but one which through licence fees  and royalties  could bring considerable wealth to the region and the nation. It should therefore be included in the planning, although it is not possible to predict a programme for development
Environ mental Sector
implementation of the Master Plan is not without risks to the environment. This section of the volume summarises  the conclusions  and recommendations  resulting from an assessment of ihose risks
T AMS-(rLG Baro-Akobo River Basin lategrated Development Muter Plan
Chapter 2MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT
2.71 Operational Directive
VOLUME m
The method of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) adopted by this study compljes guidelines described in Operational Directive 4 01 published 3 October 1991 by The World
For uniformity we assumed a full EIA was required This was called for a description of the M Plan setting, a project-by-project assessment of beneficial as well as adverse environmental ini and their mitigations, and recommendations about project alternatives, monitoring, and training^5
The scale of undertaking was Lhat of a Master Plan it was less than that required for feasibility much less than that required for design No field work was involved, although the assessment did briefly visit the Master Plan area The Master Plan formulated its development alternatives fa” the work of two previous contractors 
(1)  Selkhozpromexport, who conducted a Master Plan of the lower basin in 1990. including design and EIA of Abobo Dam on the Alwero River in 1988, and
°ra
(2)   ARDCO-GEOSERV,  who  conducted  a  Master  Plan  of  the  upper  basin  in  1995.  The  EIA  then assessed the potential impacts of the resulting development alternatives against criteria expressed by The World Bank and others.
2.7.2 Adverse Intpacts and their Mitigation
The development alternatives formulated by this Master Plan include a wide range of projects These were grouped into water resource development (hydropower, irrigation, flood protection); natural resource development (smallholder agriculture, livestock, fisheries, and others); and rural and social infrastructure (water supply  and sanitation, solid waste disposal, roads, and health infrastructure) For this  summary  we present only  those sectors  which have the potential to cause major impacts Annex  4 (Environmental Annex) accompanying this  report discusses  each sector in terms  of its component projects, and should be referred to for a detailed presentation
Hydro power developments  are located in (he upper basin. While they  have the potential to cause negative environmental impacts, these are mitigabic. The greatest risk  occurs  from sediment and ha random wastes  during construction and from noxious  products  resulting from reduction of organic  materials  during the early  phase of reservoir operations  Habital degradation may  result it reservoirs  attract large numbers  of livestock  during the dry  season Malaria will likely  become perennial rather than seasonal
Irrigation projects cluster in the lower basin Not all their potentially negative environmental impacts are miugabie, principally because of the large numbers of settlers the developments will requite t,lf habitat the developments will provide for disease vectors, and the collision that will result between people and wildlife and between settlers and indigenous people For these very broad but
consequential reasons irrigation is premature
Required are (I) improved means of disease control, particularly if non-immune settlers will suppl
the work force, and (2) decisions about the rival importance of the Gambela national Park a*
irrigation.
The Master Plan recommends  technical improvements  to smallholder agriculture, livestock, forestry. The Plan recognises  that farming and its  allied sectors  hold a cornerstone W development of the Master Plan area as, indeed, they do to Ethiopia Yet the sectors are unlike,
TAMS-U LG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
Chapter 2VMSTEK PLAN development
' ch Lheir potential without improvemenu in the way that
purees Changes in pohey land tenure, private forestry are first required
volume m
jq
I conservation can benefit long-term soil productivity; it can also decrease reservoir sediment Emulation Lhe Master Plan views soil conservation as involving patterns of land use as well as 
aCL,h ds of production. It foresees an expansion of coffee, for example, on slopes that are
o
^le fcr»nn^ crops
Mineral resources offer considerable potential for eroloiiw' considerable risk to the environment At this time howevw'^ bring determined by prospecting Mining and concentraZ
bajiin Thev 3)50 offer l0Cai’0n of mincraJs are
1
particularly if in-situ or open leaching processes are used Its impacu^-J ^ *** env’ronmer’t,
The Master Plan proposes increased water supply and sanitation Important improvements in health will result In large towns, piped sanitation offers  cost savings  if it proceeds  in unison with unproved water supply Done in this way, the negative impacts from construction also lessen
The Master Plan proposes  a 4-phase. 3-tiered programme of road improvement, As  with all construction, many  of its  significant impacts  occur during building when soil erosion contributes  large amounts  of sediment. These can be controlled by  the introduction of Best Management Practices  (BMPs), simple procedures  such as  erecting temporary  barriers  to sediment, constructing settling basins, and replanting scarred slopes These should be national in scope and form part of the licensing requirements of contractors
The Master Plan will take place in phases' immediate, short, medium, and long term In the immediate, weaknesses in policy need to be addressed Data collection and monitoring should begin during the short term and continue through the long term Construction will likely occur dunng the medium and long term. Assuming that the wildlife policy is successful, the ability to control water-related disease is  increased, and the soao-anihropologic  needs  of indigenous people can be addressed. Irrigation might occur during the medium term. More likely it will be (or should be) deferred until these improvements eventually occur
fhe schedule and cost of the Programme is presented in the Appendix D of the Annexe 4, Environment
EC BaroAJiobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
21
Chapter 2I
>1
■
r* imaster flan development
volume m
INTEGRATED water resources development
3.1        General
3.I.1 Introduction
The Baro-Akobo basin has  abundant water resources  which to date have not been developed to any  significant level. The previous  studies  into the development of these resources, by ARDCO-GEOSERV and by  Seikhozpromexport have identified a wide range of projects, some of them promising, but essentially  aimed at better quantifying the total resources  of the basin rather than evaluate the economic and financial viability of the individual projects
The studies  performed for the present Master Plan have included a review of the identified features  (dams, irrigation projects, flood control measures, etc.) which form the range ol water resource development options  for the basin These projects  have been evaluated singly, considering the project as autonomous, and as part of a river system in which all the reservoirs on a river would be operated conjunctively. This  mode of operation maximises  the benefits derived from the regulation of the river flows  to generate firm (dependable) energy  at hydropower plants  as  well as  to supply  increased dry  season flows  for irrigated agriculture in the Gambda plain Thus, for two or more hydropower schemes  on the same river operated conjunctively  the total energy  generated is  greater than the sum of the power of the same schemes  operated independently. For the combination of hydropower and irrigation schemes, the construction of any  of the major hydropower schemes  on rivers  in the Upper basin would provide considerable benefits to irrigation schemes in the lower basin because releases from the reservoirs  for power generation would increase dry  season river flows  This  would benefit downstream irrigation either by eliminating the need for a storage dam, or by reducing its size, or in the case of a phased irrigation devdopment by delaying the construction of a storage dam until a Jaier stage.
Although not all the components  of the systems  might belong to the present Master Planning horizon, these schemes still need to be considered in the context of the river basin system so as io prevent undue constraints on the long term future development.
J. 12 Surface waler resources
There are three major river basins in the study area for which runoff data, although limited are available: the Baro river and its  major tributary, the Birtir river, the Alwero river and its tributaries  the Chiru and the Mey  rivers; and the Gilo river. There is  no data for the fourth major aver in the region, the Akobo river, which forms  the border with the Sudan Only  a small pan of its catchment falls within Ethiopian territory.
The catchment areas and mean flows in the main rivers of the basin are summarised in Table
1 AMS-ITlg Baro-Aicotxi River Bixin Integrated Development Plan
22
Chapter 3M, ASTER FLAN OEVEl OPMENT
Tsbk J-1 Summary of surface waler resources
V OLUMt
Haun
Catchment area
____________
Mean annual runoff (MAR)
(Mem'year)
Bare*
30,004
12,784
.Akobo Upper
6,036
1,774
Akobo. Lower
7 200
2,118
Gtk?
12,815
3.224
Ajwcro
8019
1,375
Serkoic
7.702
1.320
Tinnaud
2,690
419
Fiber
1,435
224
Total
75.910
23,237
The .Akobo has been divided into upper and lower portions because it is only the upper porw that falls  wholly  within Ethiopian territory  Only  the upper catchment is  available for any  future water resource development, and one project, the Kashu hydropower project has  beer, identified No development is  possible on the Akobo river in the lower catchment unless  it were to be a joint Ethiopian/Sudanese project, which seems unlikely at present
Because only one scheme has been identified on the Akobo there is no opportunity of system modelling for this river
J. 1.3 Shortlisted schemes
Overall fifteen new dams  with storage reservoir have passed the screening process  and were considered in the basin development options  On the Baro river system the following schema were considered one reservoir on each of the Sor and Gumero rivers, two reservoirs on each of the Birbir and Geba nvers  and four reservoirs  on the main stem of the Baro river Tb« system study  for the Alwcro river considered the existing dam at Abobo, a second reservoir also on the AJwero at Dumbong and one on the Chiru river, a major tributary  which joins  it upstream of the Abobo dam On the Gilo river two reservoirs  on the main stem of the river have been considered.
3.2 The HEC-5 Model
The combined operation of reservoirs within each of the river systems were analysed using tfe
or  S
HEC-5 computer program This simulation model was specifically developed by the ^  ? /_
Engineers to assist in the planning studies for evaluating reservoirs in a system and slJ1.
conservation storage requirements for flood control water conservation and hydroelec 
generation These objectives are accomplished by simulating the sequential operation 0
system of reservoirs of any configuration for short interval of historical hydrological events 
for longer duration non-flood periods
The  reservoir  releases  are  controlled  to  meet  one  or  several  targets  For  flood  control,  th operation rule can be. for example, to release a discharge which will not exceed a targe
TAMS-ULG Barn-Akobo River Buin Integrated Development Master Plan
23
Chap(er }MASTER PEAN development
VOLUME ni
value   as   the   bank-full   capacity   or   the   reach   downstream   of   the   dam.   and   sort   the   excess volume up until the reservoir level reaches the maximum level of the flood control storage
to the case of water conservation, the reservoir releases  are made to meet a minimum Urgs flow for either water supply  or irrigation or any  other objectives  The targeted discharge ry vary  on a monthly, daily  or hourly  basis, or can be a function of water levels  at a downstream location
For hydropower water is  released to generate energy  to meet the demand defined either for the considered reservoir or for the global demand of a system of several reservoirs  equipped with hydroelectric  power plants  In this  latter case, the release of the reservoirs  are determined such that the remaining stored water in the reservoirs  is  proportionally  distributed among rhe reservoirs  in the system. This  operating rule which can also be modified to meet the particular requirements  of a project, provides  for all the reservoir to be empty  or full simultaneously Balancing the storage of several reservoirs  can also be achieved in the case of water conservation for irrigation or water supply  when two or more reservoirs  provide storage for a single target point
The benefits  of regulation are calculated by  simulating the reservoir operation through a hydrological sequence The time series  selected for this  study  consist of natural monthly  flows obtained by  infilling, extension and transposition of actual records  These unregulated monthly flows time senes were developed for a simulation period of 74 years at most of the dam sites
The simulation model used to assess  the irrigation potential of some of the reservoirs  is  a trial and error process  in which the release requirements  are modified until the selected reliability level is  reached In this  case, the reliability  criteria selected is  as  follows  for each month, at least 80% of the monthly  water requirements  are met 95% of the time The release requirements  vary  on a monthly  basis  For the irrigation reservoirs  the monthly  supplemental water requirements  shown in the table below were used uniformly  over the Baro-AJcobo basin to determine their potential to supply  irrigable land with water The monthly  irrigation requirements is based on the different crops water demand according to Table H-5, .Annex !H , (Imgaiion Annex)
Monthly Irrigation Requirements in m /s per 10,000 hectares
J
January'
940
July
9.10
February
4 60
August
0.00
March
1 20
September
OOO
April
000
October
000
May
0,00
November
580
June
7.60
December
1220
An additional requirement was  placed on the irrigation project: for environmental reasons  a Minimum constant release equal to 8% of the mean annual flow should be maintained m the r ’Ver downstream of the dam.
^ith regards  to hydro power operation, the programme allows  the determination ot the firm ” !ergy, as  well as  the secondary  energy  For the purpose of this  study  the firm energy  was defined as the constant monthly energy that can be guaranteed every month of the simulation Period with a 98% reliability. The secondary energy  is  the energy  generated during periods  of spillage when the reservoir is full, and the units can operate up to the maximum capacity- of the
I
Ta MS-U1_G B»ro-Akobo River Bump l»t<xra(Cd Iknekopipnii Master Ptin
2*
Chapter 3
JMASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT
hang dun. the most downstream project site considered in the basin A total of ten dams ha?; been evaluated for their regulating capabilities  to generate firm energy  and to supply  wat^ tc the 349.000 hectares  of net irrigable areas  in the Gambela plain, in the vicinity  of the Ba™ mer
3.J.2 Hydropower and irrigation
Priority to hydropower
The rwo most attractive projects in the basin, in terms of economic return, are the Baro and the Geba-A dams  One simulation model was  developed to evaluate the indirect benefits  of flow regulation in the upper basin Both of these projects can be economically justified on the basil of hydroelectric power, with the construction of two downstream power plants at each of these projects  The regulation of the flows, although modest when it reaches  the Gambela plain, provides a significantly increase of the low flows of the Baro As a result of this development scenario the flow are sufficiently  regulated to irrigate 85,500 hectares  of land at the project! identified in the vicinity of the Itang dam These 85,500 hectares could be irrigated without the provision of any  additional regulating dam, and would also meet the requirement for the minimum environmental flow release. This  potential irrigable area is  78,000 hectares  Larger than the 7,500 hectares which could be achieved without any regulation of the flows
Priority to irrigation
Of the 249,800 hectares of irrigable land that has been identified, 98,300 ha would be served from  the  Itang  reservoir  and  151,500  ha  from  the  Gambela  reservoir  From  the  sedimentation studies  it  appears  that  the  Itang  reservoir  will  have  a  limited  life,  and  therefore  it  will  be necessary  for  the  long-term  planning  to  assume  that  the  regulating  storage  will  have  to  be provided  upstream  of  Itang,  for  example  at  the  Gambela  reservoir.  A  simulation  model  oft Gambela reservoir shows that an active storage of 2,100 Mem, i.e , a maximum pool level at El 505 will be necessary to irrigate the 249,800 hectare and still maintain the minimum release
J
requirement of 29 7 m /sec.
In the case of the Gambela reservoir, a dual project, i.e, irrigation and power, was considered with a priority to irrigation There are 95,400 hectares that can be supplied with water from < reservoir by  gravity. This  water however, could not be released through the power plan located at the toe of the dam For the purpose of this  analysis, the reservoir has  been considered with a maximum pool level at El 495. From the water not used for irrigat*011 hydropower benefits could be generated from a 75 MW plant located at lhe toe of the dam 365 GWh of firm energy would be produced annually.
TAMS-L'LG Baro-Akobo River Basin Inlcgralrd DeveJopmeDi Master Plan
Cb*P,er ■*MASTlRpLAN DEVELOPMENT
j j J Combined hydropower operation
VOLUME in
Tlw Otho- development Kmriu that have b« invemgated are the conthnol operas™  of jadntdeonc  power plants  on the same stem of a fiver. The reservotn operate a, a balanced system where energy deficit al one reservoir can be compensated with surpluses al the other This situation has been evaluated for the two major rivers in the upper basin namely the Birbir and Geba rivers Ths operation provides firm energy in excess of what would be generated by each plant individually
On the Birbir river, a reservoir system consisting of the Birbir-A dam with an installed capacnv O f 86 MW at a downstream diversion and the Birbir-R dam with a maximum pool level « El 1.120 and equipped with a 422 MW power plant, would be capable of generating 2,618 GWh per year of firm energy This output is 19% more than the total output of the two projects operating independently of2,379 GWh
A similar situation exists  on the Geba river Three dam projects  have been identified on the Geba river and its  tributary  the Sor river They  consist of the Geba-A dam with two downstream diversions, the Sor dam with a power plant at the dam and a downstream diversion, and the Geba-R dam located just upstream of the confluence with the Birbir river A simulation model of this system has been prepared with a total installed capacity of 618 MW 183 MW' at the two diversions  downstream of Geba-A dam, 65 MW on the Sor river and 370 MW at the Geba-R dam This system of five power plants would generate 3,238 GWh of firm energy per year if operated in conjunction, 14% more than would be generated with the plants running independently.
Based on the promising return shown by some of the hydroelectric schemes in the Bara- Akobo basin, several scenarios  of development have been identified as  part of this  Master Plan including in particular the two river systems  indicated above In order to fully  evaluate the economic  benefits  of these projects, farther simulations  of development stages  were performed
These staged scenarios considered the better projects of the basin including the Geba-A dam, the system of Birbir-A and Birbir-R dams, the Baro dam. the Sor dam and possibly the Geba-R
dam To that end, a series of models were created for the following stages of development
•    Geba-A
(phaseO
•    Geba-A and Birbir-A
•    Geba-A, Birbir-A and Birbir-R
(phase 3)
•    Geba-A, Birbir-A,    Birbir-R and Baro
(phase 4)
•    Geba-A, Birbir-A,    Birbir-R, Baro and Sor
(phase 5)
•    Geba-A  Birbir-A     Birbir-R, Baro, Sor and Geba-R
(ph*s« Q
The benefits of the various stages of development, in are shown in the table below.
■ , -rmi of firm and dependable capacity,
________________________ ___
Chapter J
ar °-Akobo River Busin Inletrated Development Master Plan
26MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT
Hydropower Potential of (he Baro River Basin
Phase
InMilled Capacity
(MW)
l
183
Finn Energy 
(GWh/yr)
940
Dependable Capacity (MWi
183           -
2                              269
1,413
269
3                                     691                                  3.588
618
4
950
5.033
877 " -
5
1.015
5,421
93
6                   L LHl
7,335
1,259
It should be noted that the installed capacities of the individual development stages are larger than those quoted for each project considered as a stand alone scheme The installed capacity was based on a load factor of 60%
The  Gumcro  project  which  is  also  in  the  Baro  river  basin,  was  not  modelled  in  that  system since its small size would not significantly contribute to the flow regulation in the basin
3.4 System Model for the Alwero River Basin
On the Alwero river system, three dams  have been considered for irrigation: the existing Abobo dam with a proposed 10,400 hectares  of irrigable land, and the Dumbong and Chiru dams  with 15,000 hectares  and 12,000 hectares  of net irrigable areas  respectively  A fourth dam had been identified on the Mey  river by  Selkhozpromexport, but does  not appear to be economically justifiable due to the relatively small amount of water in this basin
A simulation model of the system was developed to evaluate the total potential of the Alwero basin The first conclusion is  that for the combined operation of the Dumbong and Abobo dams, the required active storage al Dumbong should be 243 Mem, i.c, with a maximum reservoir level at El. 518, to irrigate 15,000 hectares  and release sufficient water to allow irrigation at the Abobo dam. When the third reservoir, at Chiru is considered and the Dumbong and Abobo reservoirs  arc  maintained at the level established above, an additional 9,000 hectares of land can be irrigated at the Chiru dam without affecting (he Abobo project Therefore the maximum potential irrigation system in the Alwero system is 36,000 hectares
3.5 System Model for the Gilo River Basin
In the Gilo basin, the storage provided by the Gilo-1 is sufficient to irrigate die
123,100 hectares of land under its command There are another 72,800 hectares of irrigate
land in the vicinity of Gilo-2. Gilo-1 alone does not provide sufficient regulating storage KJ 
meet the requirement of the combined 196,000 hectares A simulation model of the combine operation of Gilo-1 and Gilo-2 reservoirs has been prepared to determine the maxirnut11 irrigation potential of the Gilo river The model shows that the storage of the (wo reservoirs i* sufficient to develop the full potential of 196,000 hectares
The  Gilo-1  dam  has  also  been  considered  as  dual  purpose  reservoir  for  irrigation  and hydropower If the dam is considered as a hydropower project with priority to the produced
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akebo River Bum Integrated Development Master Plan
27
Chapter Jmaster plan development
v olume in
of arm energy, the annual generation of s
plated   flow   releases,   47,600   hectares   of    **'&   *   estin»led    „   „
or several downstream locations AltenMvely the objectives of flow ren.h*— 
”
c^J
p
‘ CWh
Frorj)
V
os-er energy generation In this case w^°2 ^^sed
r
l0 -
.
mjabie tads m raranmg reared wi,„ M
of '
DdrKlOT.c power ptat located « ^■peryear
fa,nte rBmw >fay «,
^lOOheaare, „             “ «J^Wed ro^j, * K* pta,
'
ff
28MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT
4 MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT
4.1     Main Planning Considerations
The Master Plan will comprise a combination of the various  development projects  identified in each sector as  summarised in chapter 2 in order to best realise the objectives  of the studs , which are to
•   develop the resources of the basin for the welfare of its people
•   create an understanding of the natural and socio-economic conditions to arrest and
reverse the decline of the environment
•    consider the equitable and sustainable exploitation of resources in the light of the
needs of the people of the basin tn particular and of Ethiopia in general
Four main considerations guided the planning process, namely -
1    The urgent need to preserve the resource base
2    The need to ensure food security to the growing population of the basin and where
possible, to provide food surplus for use in Ethiopia or for export
3    The need to improve the base infrastructure in the basin
4    The timing of large water resources developments in the basin
The first three considerations, which are closely  interlinked, lead to the definition of a base development plan (scenario I) which forms  the irreducible minimum development required to ensure the welfare of the population and to arrest the decline in the environment This base case will provide the foundation for the implementation of the major water resources projects  The fourth consideration, which is  explored in section 4.3 below, leads  to lhe definition of development scenarios Il-Vl
4.2          Base Development Plan
4.2,1 Summary
The base case development comprises the following components:
I        Catchment management and reforestation
2. Improvement and extension to rainfed agriculture
3
Support for natural resources
4
Improvement of the infrastructure
5
Completion of the AJwero irrigation scheme
6
Promotion of mineral resources development
7
Environmental monitoring, training and impact mitigation
8        Institutional development
TAMS-ULG Biro-Akobo Rivtr Buln iDtegrued Devrlopmeui Muter Plan
Ch»ptcr J7-
PLAN development
VOLUME HJ
. , 2 Cafchm^f management
., k clear that an immediate programme of catchment protecnon must be undertaken
‘ ted mainly towards sod conservation and rtfo*^ Withou.
L natural resource base wdl deplete further with agncultural yields continuing toMU
. . have over the past decade or so Ths applies particularly to the Upper Basm where
lost Of the population are located and where the existing agriculture and farming mtenu
ld e what food security exists in the project area Catchment preservation rn the basin, particularly the upper catchment must also focus on fanning practices adopted in the
fanning systems
ZJJ Rainfed agriculture
Subsistence crops
This component is strongly linked to catchment management with which it forms the single most important action that will ensure the welfare of the people The improvement of rainfed agnculture has  been shown to be a more economic  and certain way of ensuring future food security  than the development of irrigated agriculture The detailed proposals contained in this study will ensure that the long term decline in agncultural productivity is reversed by  improved farming practices  However in order to meet the future food production targets it will also be necessary to increase the area of land under cultivation from the present area of 6l0,000ha tol 4 million ha in 2035
Coffee
Highland arabica coffee represents  the major cash crop in the Upper basin, and an important aspect of the proposed improvements  to rainfed agriculture will be an improvement in quality and yield of smallholder coffee
•i-2.4 Natural Resources
Apart  from  forestry,  which  has  been  included  as  past  of  catchment  management,  the proposed natural resource components of the base case scenario comprise
protection of wildlife and the development of tourism
enhancement of the marketing of wild honey
• development of capture fisheries in the rivers and of fish farming in any new reserv oirs improvements to the health and productivity of livestock 
development of renewable energy
proriKHion of mineral resource development
data that is currently available is not sufficient for the formulation of detailed
1  1     ro   os  s    n
liTk^ ^  P  P  ^  >  many cases the immediate activity will be data collection and
fell StUdy However it has been possible to provide development guidelines which, it is
c
Osu Sh°lJd inc|uded in the Master Plan even though it is not possible to asagn specific 
which are in any 
j rively very small
Case re a
J ^ f t^tntcture
nr
*  ih^1SlrLCTlJre COTT1POnent of the base development plan comprises,
*  roJ3 0 ^'011 of ^an and rural water supply
IrTlPro Yemenis and new road construct ion spread over 4 phases
Onprer4
Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
toMASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT
•   the provision of a basin electric transmission system
•   improvements to health facilities 
4. 2 6 .4h»vn> irrigation scheme
The base development plan also includes the completion of implementation of the one Alwtro  Abode  Dam  irrigation  system  which  can  be  regarded  as  a  committed  irriga^8 protect  The  assumed  programme  for  this  is  shown  on  Figure 4-1. although  h is  now
recognised that in reality there may be some delay in the start date
Years
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000.
Complete main canal
Complete design of irrigation svstem
Construction of secondary, tertiary canal,
roads.
On farm development, fanning
development
1i
Figure 4.1 Implementation Programme of the Ahvero Scheme
43 Large Water Resources Projects
4.3.1 General
The  large  water  resources  project  consists  of  new  irrigation  projects  (to  follow  the Alwero/Abobo Dam Project) and hydropower projects either for within basin use or for supplies to the interconnected system (ICS). These projects, which are described in Chapter 2, comprise:
Irrigation Projects
•    Baro River, Right Bank, Gravity from Itang Dam ( 50,900 ha net)
•    Upstream Alwero Project, Gravity from Dumbong Dam (15,000 ha net)
•    Gilo River, Right Bank, Gravity from Gilo 2 Dam (47,600 ha net)
Hydropower Projects- within basin use
•    Gumero I.D and ID, installed capacity 50 MW
•    Kashu, installed capacity 60 MW'
TAMS-ULG Biro-Akobo River Buin [ntejtrated Development Matter Plan
31
Chapter •»plan development
,M5TER
V OLUME HI
Haired" ProJK‘s ’For 'CS
™ t Geb-A. 1+2, installed capacity 
210 MW
. Baro A, 1 *2, installed capacity 
171 MW
. Birbir A+R, installed capacity
455 MW
• Sor A+R , installed capacity
65 MW
As indicated rn section 3 1 above, there is a potential system linkage between the imgatxm projects  and the medium to large hydropower projects  for the ICS The large projects contribute significantly  to the regulation of the Baro River and firm up the low flows  This provides  more security  to the large irrigation projects  on the lower Baro Rjver. and in particular the Baro River Right Bank  project, enabling economics  to be made on the storage required for the irrigation systems
The  added  benefits  of  the  integrated  development  of  water  resource  projects  should  be analysed in greater detail in the feasibility phase
4.3.2  Irrigation Projects
Ahrero
The completion of the Alwero/Abobo Dam Irrigation Project is  a priority  and is  considered to be part of the base development plan it is  estimated that construction of the irrigation system in the irrigated area can commence in 1998 and that farming operations  from the competed system of 10,400 ha will reach its development level by the end of the year 2004. This assumes that land can be placed under irrigation at an average rate of 2000 ha/year, which is a high target level
Baro
■After  Alwero, the most  economically attractive and least environmentally damaging project is  the  Baro  Right  Bank  /  hang  Dam  Project.  For  planning  purposes  it  is  assumed  that fanning  operations  for  this  project  will  proceed  immediately  after  the  AJwenj/Abobo  Darn Project is fully implemented, i.e commencing in the year 2005
Two development scenarios are possible namely-
1    Investment from the private sector for commercial fanning operations, coupled
with small holder agriculture.
2    Pure small holder farming operation.
commercial farming operation would include a core estate, say over 25 /« of the area
^'Srtated for commercial operations, supporting and supported by the outgrowtr small
** who would utilise the remaining 75% of the area Even with this arrangowet it rs 
the commercial farming operation would cover only 40 - 50% o
^In^71'^8 prQiect The olhcr 50% *60% W0Utd bC ** pUfdy s™1 h°
^£'"‘"8 Purposes, it is assumed that the commercial famm?
Plo "«il«l at average rale 2oooha/yem and a. die same ume purel) small holder
Oupter-t
ULG ® ro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Dcvdopment Master Plan
aMASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT
agncuhure can be implemented at the same rate Typical implementation schedules on tk.
5
bass are illustrated in Figure 4-2
Alternative 1. commercial operation is to be preferred since it gives higher rate of return reduces the investment required from government and gives a faster production schedule The decision on Alterative 1 is of course in the hand of the private sector
The implementation of the subsequent irrigation projects, namely upper AJwero/Dumbonc 
Project and the Gilo Right Bank Project would follow a similar strategy
Yean
1997-
2002
2003-
2007
2008-
2012
2013-
2017
2018-
2022
ALTERNATIVE 1
Commercial Operation
22,000 ha
- Core Estate
J2.000 ha
- Outgrowers
ALTERNiATTVE 2
Small Holder Operations
Figure 4.2 Implementation of Baro Right Bank Irrigation Project
4JJ Large and medium Hydropower Projects
The implementation programme for the small and medium scale hydropower projects will depend on the least cost expansion plan for the interconnected system Two alternatives have been considered for planning purposes -
Alternative I
Implementation of the Baro Akobo projects to meet the growing demands estimated by EELPA (i.e about 10% per annum) in order of least cost/installed kW
Alternative 2
Implementation of the Baro Akobo projects at the rate of one project every four year (i e a continuous construction programme)
These two alternatives are illustrated on Figure 4-3
Obviously for the Baro-Akobo basin. Alternative 1 is preferred since it represents a higher investment in the area Again the decision on this point falls outside the basin and will be based on national planning considerations
The rate of annual investment is not a criterion for the choice since the investments in hydropower will presumably be made in any case, if not in the Baro Akobo basin, then m some other basins
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo Riser Basin Inlegrated Development Master Plan
Chapter ■*development
ma**1
__ ________
VOLUME m
. i : Alterative 1, Implementation Program for Medium & Large FiO  *
Hydro power Projects
ur
A Kaehu
Figure 4-3 : Alternative 2, Implementation Program for Medium A Large Hydropower Projects
Sor A Kashu
CUpttr*
G B*ro-Akobo River Buin Integrated Development Muter PUD
34MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT
4. J. 4 Small Prvjtcti
If no medium and large scale hydropower projects  are built in the Baro-Akobo basin, it is assumed that small hydropower projects, Gumero (50MW) and the Kashu (60MW) Wou]d be implemented since they  are more economical than any  other means  of meeting fl* dectnaty requirements
According to the present planning ofEELPA the national grid system will have reached the Baro-Akobo basin by  the year 1999 This, together with existing supplies  within the basin (mainiv  the Sor hydropower plant) will be sufficient io meet local demands  until there has been lime to implement the final stage of the Gumero Project scheduled to come on line m the year 2005
It should be noted that the large scale commercial fanning operations may commence in the year 2005 and the presence of a nearby  hydropower plant would provide further assurance to the private investor
Therefore the Gumero project would be implemented in stages until the next project, the Kashu project comes on line in the year 2024. This implementation schedule for the small hydropower projects is illustrated on Figure 4-4
Figure 4-4 Implementation Programme for Small Hydropower Projects
TAMS-VLG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
35
Chapter 4PLAN DEVELOPMENT
MAS**
VOL
UME m
IlK     P'CVKWS       dlOTis'”n         11       “     ;lear       *hM,he       iwlenroaion     pro?™:
h
tef resources projects will depend on decisions outside the basin These are -
(
for     to
1™ 
j The decision whether or not to build medium to large scale hydropower p
rojects 
uilhin the basin
2    The decision whether or not to adopt commercial firming operatio
ns in the
new
irrigation projects.
Decision (1) is a national planning decision related to the expansion planning of the ICS
Decision  (2)  depends  on  whether  or  not  private  investors  can  be  attracted  to  invest  in UTigalion projects in the Baro Akobo basin.
The timing of these two decisions  will depend on the planning process  with respect to irrigation and hydropower In order not to jeopardise the implementation of the programme the first decision to proceed with the hydropower plants has to be made the latest at the end of 1998 and the second decision to proceed with the irrigation has to be made the latest at ibe end of 2000 It should be noted that all the immediate large water resources  project under consideration are in the Baro river basin It is  proposed that the recommendations with respect to the selected hydropower and irrigation studies  in the Baro River basin should be confirmed in a first phase of the feasibility  study, based on more detailed topographic studies, a minimum of site investigations and thorough reconnaissance studies
The irrigation feasibility  studies  cover a very  large gross  area of 66,000 ha and will take about two years  to complete. A further year will be required to develop draft concession documents and make approaches to private investors On this basis the decision point for tiie irrigation project planning will be January 2001,
The hydropower feasibility studies can be completed in 1998, by which time the feasibility ^hies  on Gojeb, Tekaze, Chemoga Yeda, Belles  and Helde-Warabesa will have been Spitted Thus the decision point for hydropower project planning will be January 1999
basic decisions give rise to six planning scenarios as illustrated by the decision ^shown on Figure 4-5
_________ _____________________________________________________________________   _________________________________■
Cbxpter4
®>ro-Akobo River Buin Integrated
Muter PIab
36MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT
V0LU'ttm
Figure 4-5 Mailer Plan Development Decision Tree TAMS-ULG BiroAkobo River Basin In tegral cd Devdopinrnt Master Plan
Chapter 4PLAN development
VOLUME
p  planning Scenarios
y// Introduction
The ax planning scenarios emanating from the basic decisions  „ •
n
and hydropower project planning are illustrated on Figure 4_s '.2?sar,On planning case scenario. which will be implemented irrespective of anv d * • C°nS,fl °f the and irrigation, and five supplementary scenarios one of vS S'°,n °n P°*« generation the choice depending on the outcome of the strategic
content of each scenario is described in the follow™'0^”
,0 scenario I.
cacr®f
implementation schedule and an estimate of costs The®. 8 ■ 1995 USS. are based on detailed cost estimates set out
•r the econo™, analyses tt is judged ,ta the margin of error
4.4.1 Base Development Plan - Scenario I
Content
The content of this scenario is described in section 4.2 above
Schedule
t0 F«her with the ° prcsscd " of
The schedule for the implementation of the main components of this scenario is shown in Figure 4-6
Cost estimate
The estimated total cost of this base development is USS 2,542 million The investment will be spread over a period of nearly 40 years: annual investments for all the main components usociated with scenario I are given in Table 4-1. It will be noted chai the initial annual costs  ire high because of the Alwero/Abobo Irrigation Project The annual costs build up gradually from about USS 7.3 million / year to about USS 88 5 million/year through out the planning period
The breakdown of the total investment by sector is as follows.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------—
share________
2.62
61.90 __
7.75
400
4 59
0 42
1055
2.56
022
Chapter-i
B,r rvAhobo River Built Intqfrtted Develop"*"! MailerPlin'I
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MAS’ * __________ _____ ________
volume ni
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"
JI. Hydropower for Rosin - Smail Holder Irrigation
0*1*1 IT represents the most modest addition to the Base Case The hydropower
een^0 J be su
e
projec .
p nmposed on the Base Case Scenario arc -
and
Baro Right Bank / Itang Dam Irrigation Project ( 50.900 ha net)
’ Gumero 1,2 and 3 Hydropower Project (50 MW installed)
Kashu Hydropower Project ( 60 MW installed)
this scenario is shown on Figure 4-7.
The schedule for
annuaj  investments  for  Scenario  11  are  given  in  Table  4-2  The  total  investment  over the'penod of 40 years is about USS 592 million, which represent an average of USS 14 8 idllion/year The annual cost varies from about $ 2 8 million year to S 35 million 'year In ths scenario the hydropower sector represents 29 3 % of the total investment while the imgation represents 70 7 % of the investment
4.1.1 Scenario III - Hydropower for Basin - Commercial Irrigation
Content
This is the same as Scenario n except that it has been assumed that significant private sector investment can be attracted to the irrigation projects in the basin
The irrigation development under this scenario thus consists of :-
1 Bam RB/lcang Dam Irrigation Project
- commercial component 22, 000 ha
- small holder component 32,000 ha
’ Tpper Alwero /Dumbo ng Dam Irrigation Project
- commercial component 7,000 ha
,        " SrTia^ bolder component 8,000 ha
o river, Right Bank/ Gilo 2 Dam Irrigation Project
- commercial component 21,000 ha
■ small holder component 26, 000 ha
I he Scheel i c
u e for this scenario is shown on Figure 4-8
a breakdown of which is given in Tab^ ^’jg^^y^ The
^l tow penod 40 years, which represent an average of L SS - -
>d C Vanes ^rn about US$ 2.8 trillion /year to $ 54.4 mtlhon .year J^should
that some of this investment will be borne by private investors In ths
------  —
Cli.prer 1
r XVkobjj River Biiln Intetri(H| Dctricjiniettt Muttr PlanJ.L
11r
1'1
I
■■J
tI
u
_■ ■r*Wr ; fh4r*fxwrfor/rrifMffn. Smart* H, C*irt (I -SS ntffltonf
r
u
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.
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-J 1   *
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LM
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U
i=
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n
r« 1
1 H,*>$o«rtr
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f'BiBHUUljffji
0540
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04*0
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CqftUWcUua Fhui 1         l. U MA! {
» no
11WX
O*ilQfi, B*"•- *•wrti
o*jo
U«N
(MOWWiPtMill |IIMA>
5W
5RW
D*hm' W'<Lmiq ind *-*<*
0w
0 TO
C—»* JM l
( ft MW1
raw
g kg
Kaahu
raauNUy
1 ' LMJ
CJa#^ Srirtrq ^4
‘CuiiiVutUun HMa*               14*3 *4W]
J
4U
AM
4M
Ml
IJM
MM
-
•
4*1
•4»
iw
4.M
IM
-
•
*74
if*
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14 if
■                      F’ -------------------------- --------------------------------- * F- -«■-»■»<—- *-■-■—r
1«
iM
Ihj        M               JL A-rrrl >
r
• ■J
i —’•’*7^7—-w—m ■ !          ------ -      —-■----- 1 La  '   ■--..■Ji ■— - --1- - ■»■-----------CjBan
ll M
JU-
-!Lil
__
1 —r
RM
aoa
»N
>o*
■ Ml
1 '3
■M
RM
■ Mi
•«
g ni
• UR '
Roh
i OR
H
4 «R
4 41!
_ •«
•M
4 HI
4H
4 «■
4 all
4 an
4 af
4 4Rf
a 4R
i 4R
■ulMvW
1J4
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4*7
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fl H
9*14
MJ3
HW
MM
M.II
HARR
rxa«
flM
TIM
TUBR
MM
MIR
Cl H
nN
rail
TOTAL
l.M             1U
T.11
T.»1
ilm
MU
ll±l
M >1
1144
13JMI
10. M
11.44
11.44
I fl . 44
11.M
13JM
ni»
14 M
1411
JAM
£4 44144*        14 U M.M MM MM MH UH U«l UM UH 4 4»
44*'rviMf
IVojcitk
*mn
I M »T
atmjrt T»rm
Maailium Turn
7m~~m
/Oumwp
IF—aifaiWy Slucfr              ~
* jfrqp fiwJirrg A Aw*r11
fconrtrudwn Fha— F( I 2 MW?
ID—ign Bidbng & Aw—d
fc on ilfuciMM PhaM f f fj MW)
I Daawgri Baling A Aw rd______
Itot^njcUon Ph— II (20 frW/7
Km/*u
FaacJUldy Slydy____________
Dwgn Awing A Ard
CcnaJiucilon Ph*M {flfl MW?
Irrigation ____________________________
B*X» flfrw jfrghr Sank f1  51,000 ftJ n?tj Fa—jMity Study
Canal Cocwlructkrn_________ CofnmareMl frriflrtkm (21,000 haj_ 5-rr^M HoW»i lrng«Uor 130 OOC ha?
;
1I
l
I
Mw^r" l
“
F —itaijlySltfJy       _____________ D—igru fiadinfl ft Awrt
PMtmnfl Dam CchtIti uciwan________ Ma in CwtJ Corm*ructeon__________ C.«.^»wrc-ai *«iigai*on ■ ? 000 ►<-»£_ Small Holder irrigabcm (B,0o0 Mfr Grip Rrw fflgFH Ban* f 47 W/to
Ji'-dfc
£
T=
^■■jhllp »wdy
__
'
jDompn Biding <
|G*v2 U*rn ConalfUCfcon,
|ltonL«nd Conwirucaon
Cornrrwijal Ml >g«**ofi (21 6061w} SmaH HoMa* hTiflateH\26,QG0 haj
Pag.1IPLAN DEVELOPMENT
VOLUME m
„„„ the hydrapower represents 15 % of the total ,„,e!tmCT1 wM sc*nan as % of the investment
re pres£n>5»-
S^oriolV-
CvnWit
Scenario W is similar to Scenario [J, except it js
me irrigation
,aer Ration
.
°
^ct medium and Urge Sc* hydropower projeet^^^ - been TOde to
or P^duction into the
j] K hydropower development under the scenario thus consists of-
•     Geba A 1 '2 « Birbir A+R
•    Baro A H2
•    Kashu
•    Sor
Installed capacity 183 MW Installed capacity 508 MW Installed capacity 259 MW Installed capacity  60 MW Installed capacity 65 MW
.. h. installed in four year increments starting with Geba-A. 1 & 2
s 
sxusfy the demand of the country
2005 p"ow
The schedule for this scenario is shown in Figure
Total annual investments are given in Ta
years is about USS 2,148 million, which represent an
Table 4-4 The total investment over the period of40
, mot. MUSS 53 7 million/year The
[ should be noted
/year
t
annual cost varies from about S 6 million /year o - "~ i-esents on investment
n
in the
however the. the excess expenditure over Scenario 0rep^B £
national generation system rather than on investment
The hydropower projects are nevertheless of great secondary benefits of the investments and because o projects in the upper reaches of the Baro River provi e
Amoral regulation that the
th®
benefit of the downstream
reoresents 80.5 % of the
^ion    development    In    this    scenario    the    hydropo-    ^or    repre ota] investment while the irrigation represents 19.5
Scenario V- Hydropenver for Basin and ICS - Conunerdal I g
^Went
. . ed that significant private
^enario is the same as Scenario IV except that11 * “su™ baSin. The irrigation °r investment can be attracted to the irrigation P J ,
ne °pment under this scenario would be the same as
TS rLQ Baro-Akui,;
Chapter 4
River Brin Integrated Development Master Planftivw'
dludp
Fgklftm ___________________ ________________
?  rtfatr  -Qty*  0Mr  (  50,000  **  M0 FagaltaWy Study __________
1 Deuyn Biding I Awtf Cwrttrucfion
Irrigation System Conrtirticm
1 Farming Opwattan 0u4d up
Hydropower
O*6dPrp|wcf
FM4(t4Hy Study
t t*tgn Mng < Awrd Conrt-uctkri
0lrMr Prober
FwtOlMy Study
rtesign B*d*ng fc Award jCwwIructon
SjrpFn^ecf
Fwiibilty Study
i C*yjn Bwftnfl E Award ConOructun
P^ecf fFaaubdfty Study ______
D*vgr» Biding I Award Comtrufflon
Sdr Profit
FuBlbaUfty Study
I Dawgn Biding IL Awtd l C9n«rucaon
Page 1■x’np-0» 1«Un«44
4114        441*
II 11M 1lil 1144
11M          ,1|*           IJM           11M           1161           4 U 444
,
■ I L1«0«^^development voawEin
f or scenario V is shown on Figure 4-10
T h^ hedul
finual investments are given in Table 4-5 The total investment over the period of 40 rotaJ ^about USS 2.713 million, which represent an average of USS 67 8 million vear The
y d cost varies from about $6 million/year to $258 million/year. Although these
ms are high it should be noted that most of the hydropower investment is m effect J '* national generation system and a good preparation of the irrigation investment will fo V m by private investors. In this scenario hydropower represents 63 7 % of the total
1
i <amcni while irrigation represents 36 3 % of the investment
. ? Scenario VI - Fast track hydropower and commercial irrigation
Content
it is  a variant of scenario V in which the hydropower projects  are implemented over a shorter period (by the year 2015) such that most of the growing demands on the ICS, up to the year 2015 are met by projects in the Baro Akobo Basin Under this Scenario secondary or even firm energy could be exported to neighbouring countries e g Sudan and Djibouti
Schedule
The schedule for this scenario is shown on Figure 4-11
Cost
Total annual investments are given in Table 4-6 The total investment is identical with the previous  Scenario, over the period of 40 years  is  about USS 2,713 million, which represents an average of USS 67 8 million/year The annual cost vanes from about $ 6 million /year to $ 258 million/year It will be noted that the investments are extremely high up to the year 2015, reflecting the high investment in hydropower for the national generation systems As previously, in this scenario the hydropower represents 63 7 % of the total investment while irrigation represents 36 4 % of the investment
15 Selected Scenario
1 Total in vestments
total cost of each of the six scenarios in the immediate, short and medium terms is Wnansed bdow
Immediate term
Short  term
Medium term
Total
1
(1996-2000)
(2001-2015)
(2016- 2035)
>9125
13.47
13.47
767.20
276.32
544.23
1778.82
1583.93
303.04
2542
in
iv
v
VI
n
593
598 64
1156
30 72
338.54
2148
32 52
2044 73
636 14
2713
32 52
2198 03
482.84
2713
-. .
_..---
-------------- ------- -
* °-AJ<obo Riv
r
Rrs
Chapter J
er
m Initgnted l>evelu
pn»tri Master Flim
49AJi /
-■P*1"
IC
PT.-:-.- ■ j i! lani G+njfcycii»rt
I u»n r.jral rinntyUr
p.--ri                  nyl'f tl.rpc
fa>hi flA* fl'jMgjflt ( 47jW
[f*iiiIIhi^ rflbdy
I
;>i>y B^AA^ 4
Mydkvpaw*r
'i3**a Pra/tcf
.r*ai**^
fetfcy- Mkf I Pm |
0 pnikuel ton____
^n^VCC__
t          Shidy
Dailqn Bidiftp L
CflnWMdlon
JimPnym
| FiMibMy SM/ __________
&MLyi nilltf.| L Aw*nJ _________ u iCwarwcUrin
FvrbhiHp
Ipwuy tJIdrOf IL *—fcd 1Coni Irwiaas
lyFn^d
’■TQTM-cter plaN development
volume in
total investment comprises the cost of Scenario I plus the cost of the selected ^ ve rr VI as summarised below
Sv -enan° H ' V1-
g fe[llHlO
i+n
pm
pjv
Hv
I
pVI
Base *• Small hydropower & smallholder irrigation Base  x   Small  hydropower  &  commercial  irrigation Base  *  large  hydropower  &  smallholder  irrigation Base  large  hydropower  &.  commercial  irrigation Base ~ maximum investment
To Lai in vestment
(USS million)
2.542 3.134 3,698 4,690 5,255 5,255
5.2 /Inre development
is stated in section 4 1 above. Scenario 1 is the basic development that is essential if the decline in the natural environment and the productivity of the land is to be arrested It is the scenario that fully addresses the key abjective of improving the welfare of the basin’s population by satisfying their requirements for the basic necessities of life: water, food, and energy Nearly 70% of the cost of Scenario I will be devoted to the improvement and extension of rainfed agriculture which, as has been shown, is an extremely attractive economic proposition The remainder of the investment is devoted to environmental,
natural resource and social infrastructure projects which are vital for rhe well being of the population even if ihe benefits cannot be measured in monetary terms The negative environmental impacts of the Scenario are small and easily mitigated.
45.3      Hydropower
Economic arguments
The studies have shown that rhe medium and large hydropower projects not only produce electricity cheaper than the small schemes, but compete with the best projects that are availably for development anywhere in the country, These projects will also provide
1[)1Ponant secondary benefits to the basin's population, the main ones being.
* employment opportunities associated with the construction and operation of the schemes
« rotation of the rivers which will benefit downstream irrigated agriculture
These b fafITIin£ and recession grazing
several Cne^rs’ ^so the additional benefits of the conjunctive operation of a system of of the t/ri Cmes same river basin, provide a powerful economic argument in favour
s
r
ydroPowe development to supply the Inter Connected System as described in *V, V V)
Crucial ne ■       ■ T0P°wer
■
schemes inevitably cause irreversible damage to the environment,
relatively ® .
a tlVe *mPacts - displacement of population and the flooding of land - are
bad r^nor as the schemes are situated in remote areas far from intensively cultivated
that there ■CCorrirneil^ed mitigation measures have been fully costed and it is not considered ^ould h overriding environmental reason whv the medium and large schemes 
not 8o ahead
.— ...
_________________________
lro ’Akotx» River Basie Integrated Development Master Pla*
54
Ciupler 4master plan development
Safwtd considerations
Two national considerations must be borne in mind Firstly, it js at present Governments policy, supported by the World Bank, to favour medium siZBd l projects in preference to large schemes Although it would be surprising if tlt dr° °
P  Wer
lasted over the 35 years of the planning period, it does mean that the medium* PTefe,tnc« schemes, such as Geba and Baro are likely to be built first and large schemes 
be built later
Secondly it is likely that the Government will want to spread the very 
j
ma or m
involved in the national electricity' expansion programme geographically over th* ?
country, irrespective of the strictly economic ranking While the predicted growth™'*
national population and electrical energy demand will eventually require the until
of all viable schemes, this national consideration implies that the rate of hydropow'er^'^ development in the basin may be slower Lhan envisaged in Scenario V
45.# Irrigation
Economic arguments
The economic  analyses  have shown that the economic  return on irrigated agriculture is greater for large scale commercial projects  lhan for smallholder projects  However for practical as  well as  political reasons  a mix  of smallholder and commercial operations  is desirable and therefore comHierciaVsniallholder fanning of the three best schemes, Baro Right Bank, Upper Alwero should form the basis  of future planning, subject to confirmation at feasibility  stage It should be noted that the estimated economic  rates  of returns  are for stand alone irrigation schemes  and these rates  would be significant!; increased if medium or large scale hydropower projects were to be constructed on the samt river further upstream
Environmental arguments
As has been stated tn the Environmental Report (Annex 4) all the irrigation
encroach, to varying degrees, on wildlife habitats and in particular on the Gantbe • ■®
Park Detailed analysis is required at feasibility level to establish the optimum irni?\^ bt
for each of the irrigation areas: those quoted are the maximum possible but t cse
reduced as a result of the detailed studies.
External considerations
It is  anticipated that the irrigation schemes  will be developed as  commerct ^erefo^
^^rte
1   511'
nl    eiT'erl^
a   substantial   contribution   of   private   finance   The   programme   for   * P' depends on the government passing the appropriate enabling legislation an favourable  and  stable  economic  climate  in  which  private  investors  wil  e as   with   the   hydropower,   many   uncertainties   attach   to   the   precise programme
4.5.4 Selected scenario
Mme of the a,guwnK oullinaj Mlions 4 5 2 and 4.5.3
eS tab|jshin?1
Th--
Id
th'
selection of Scenario V, which composes hydropower for supply «' f„ Connection System and commercial farming, as being the most advantage
for th® P
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akoto Ri«
r
Plan
55plan DEVELOPMENT
___________________
VOLUME HI
However,   it   is   recognised   that   environmental   reservations   and   national o f  f he   baS   s   mean  that  both  the  content  and  above  all  the  programme  of  ths  Scenario,  if consi^0     ,   lfX     reality   differ   substantially   from   that   actually   shown   Irrespective   of   the jdopt^'              development it is important that the in general the implementation of
actual              cedeS that of irrigation so that the latter benefits full from the regulatory
h
4.6
4.61 Imgafed Agriculture
Pie overall gross  irrigation requirement for the typical diversified rotation has  been estimated at 13,106 m per hectare per year. This gives the following annual gross demands 
P
^° °fhydropower releases on the dry- season river flows Water Use and Allocation
J
for the irrigation schemes under consideration
Scheme
Water demand (Mem)
Baro Right Bank
666
Aiwero/Abobo
136
Lipstream Alwero
196
Gilo Right Bank
615
Total
1613
By comparison, the total gross annual demand of the maximum irrigable area of 480,000 ha (section 2.3) would be 5,288 Mem
In addition the annual evaporation losses from the irrigation reservoirs must be considered,
as follows
.Reservoir
_itarig 
-punibong
---------- —---------
Apobo 
-----------------------------
Evaporation loss (Mem)
76
22
—-------------
19
Total         ’     —*—
139
256
"The
Mich is  ^nsuiTlPtive use of water by  hydropower is  the evaporation from the reservoirs,
follows
if A tn*
—- - » ______________________ _____________________________________________ ________________________________________________ ______
Evaporation loss (Mem J.
Wver Basin Integrated Development Muter Plan
Chapter 4master plan development
4.6.3   Water mpply
Water  supply  for  domestic  municipal  and  industrial  consumption  should  h
all other demands The total requirement for the population of towns ^7'
year 2035 has been estimated in Annex II at 38 Mem /year on the basis of
780,000, an average gross consumption of just under 50 litre per persori a Popular, ' requirement of the rural population, projected to number 4 5 million in the’ Thc’°'t a net per capita consumption similar to the residents of villages (20 litres/daV
at 33 Mcm/year, giving a total demand of 71 Mcm/year. However it is rcc? 15 estimatej for water resource allocation purposes that this requirement is doubled to
■'? <n
>n
system losses of greater than the 15% assumed, stock watering and other unqUC 1CCauDl °f 4.6.4   Environmental demand
The environmental water demand is for a minimum flow in a! the rivers to sustain ecology. This minimum flow has been set at 8% of the mean annual flow for the * U " of reservoir simulation studies, and this figure should be adopted as a guiddine'for°^
water resource allocation
4.6.5 Waler balance
’
ll!
Table4 8 shows that even in the most densely populated catchments, Baro, Alwero and Gilo, the maximum development will not be constrained by the lack of water
Table 4-7 Water balance
Basin
Annual water requirement (Mcm/year)
Irrigation
hydro
water supply
environ.
TOTAL
Baro
742
281
85
1.023
2,131
Akobo lipper
0
20
2
142
164
Akobo. Lower
0
0
2
169
171
Gilo
754
0
20
258
1,057
Alwero
215
0
18
110
343
Sericolc
0
0
10
106
116 __
Tirmand
0
0
3
33
36
Pibor                         0
0
2
18
20, _
Total
1,869
%8
301
LL
142
0.6
1,859
8
4.171 , ■
18 J
MAR
12,784 1.774
2,118
3,224
1,375
1.320 4P W
23337
TAMS- IILG Biro-Akobo River Basin lntefrticd Development M«ter plaD
57PLA> DEVELOPMENT
VOLUME m
HECOMNfEN'DED master plan
5-
41 [faster Finn Description
I (IV
tj hisScenano V
»r
wc
5. J J
The Base Scenario does not include high capital engineering elements, such as dams, but instead mainly  concentrates  on water supply, agriculture catchment management and natural resource development.
Tlie main activities and the distribution of the investment of the sectors over the planning
period is as follow
Secton
Percentage
Runfed Agriculture
61.9
Road Programme
1055
Water Supply ( Town & Rural t
8 59
Coffee Improvement
7.7
Transmission Line
5.4
Jrrjgarion Abobo ( Completion)
262
.Environment Action Plan
256
_Caiduront-Management
0.42
jfjjflitutional Support
0.22
Natural Resource Development-
^Plemet)^ supply the demand of the Interconnected System (ICS). But before = this ScenarioMASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT
The main activities of the Scenario V are (see Figure 4-11)
1       Irrigation
•    Baro RB/Itang Dam [rogation Project
- commercial component 21, 000 ha
- small holder component 30,000 ha
•    Upper Alwero /Dumbong Dam Irrigation Project
- commercial component 7,000 ha
- small holder component 8,000 ha
•    Gilo river, Right Bank Gilo 2 Dam Irrigation Project - commercial component 21,000 ha
- small holder component 26, 000 ha 2          Hydropower
• Geba A 1+2
Installed capacity 183 MW
• Birbir A+R
Installed capacity 508 MW
•    Baro A 1+2      -
Installed capacity 259 MW'
•    Kashu
Installed capacity 60 MW
•    Sor
Installed capacity 65 MW
The schedule for scenario V is shown on Figure 4-11. Total annual investments are given in Table 4-5. The total investment over the period of 40 years is about USS 2,713 million
5.1.3 Total cost
The total cost for the Selected Master Plan is the combination of Scenario I and Scenano V is presented in Table 5-1. A graph illustrates the distribution of the Investment (see Figure 5-1). The total investment over the period of 40 years is about USS 5.255 million, which represent an average of USS 131 38 million/year The investment costs vary from US$21 million/year to USS 307 million/year Although these investments are high it should be noted that most of the hydropower investment is in effect for the national generation system and a good preparation of the irrigation investment will be bom by private investors
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan-f-Z/J/tar/cv7%r// /nees/nfenf Stefterfij/e, 3’w/w a/ S'eenarto 7 dt K Corls ffAS’S rnilfunt)
Immediate
7,396 I 37 f 99 J 99 j 2,000 ~J 1
T ________  _______  _________________________________ __
[        2     ~|         3 I
~]          5        (aj7
Short Term \ fl u¥
((Scenario 1
730
[I l
2042
5339
57 301
5284
4826
49 13
47 6?
49.61
42.56
4384
45751
44.771
46.59ft
^Scenario V
1T
090
6.96
g.sh
16 60
69 94
103 51
103 51
258.00
183 46
184.&41
185.6a|
185.831
254.54A
jjrofa/
J ™>l.
2L32|
60.35
M.3®l
71.44
138.20
152.64
151.12
307.61
226.02
22678
231.59 j
230.80J
301.1311
1
1 10.00                    11.00 j      12.00            13.00            14.00            15.00
16.00            17.00            18,00     \    19.00      I 20.00                 21 00      ’ 22.00                 23.00
Scenario 1
50 53
51.13]           52.54I
54.52            60.39
7997
64 36
66 26
83 78           71 67
94.00|           7121
71.26
77.58
Scenario V
107 97
114,39          109.69
63 43
46 63
53.05
7373
76 M
76.08            68.19
4751            24.31
24.31
23.51
feta/
||      156.50
1«5.52|        562 23
117.95
107.02
133,02
138.09
142.34
139.88          139.88
141.51              95.52
95.57
101.09
|     24.00             35.00            26.00            27.00           2B00      ]     28 00            30 00            31.00            32.00            33.00            34.00
1—’         Medium Term
I 35.00 l|         Total ]
1 Scenario 1
] Scenario V
| Tofnf
8226
23 51
][     10577
01.70
77.90
23.51
79.88
23 51
81 06
23.511
84 31
23-51
87 47
23.51
84.38
84.37
84 BO
23 51
00 53
1747
105.00
17 47
11.47
5 72
505.29
101.41
103.39
105.37
107.82
110.98
101.93
95 84
90.52
06 2<     2,542.34]
5 72lf 2.713.3OJ|
92 001 5,255.73^350 00
300 00
250 00
| 200 00
e»
■
2. 15000
?
° 10000
Number of Years Starting 1996
Figure 5.1 Summary of the Investment Schedule of the Proposed Master
Plan (I & V)
A Map of the Selected Development Master Plan is presented in Figure 5-2.
5.2 Logical Framework Analysis Matrix
In order to analyse the Recommended Master Plan, a logical framework in a malnx is presented below
This matrix comprises three levels
A Goal Statement
B         Objectives/ Purpose
C         Results
For each level the following analyses were done
1         Description of Project Component
-s
2
Objective Variable Indicators of Achievements an
3
Means of Verification Quantification and Assessment
4
Assumption, Risks and Constraints
61Ba.o-AWOo^'6 W as«r PlaoP^
F,8”JrtR PLAN
Upgnd*  °*  &
- a- ■ Oft-M* '
^AMS  CcmUtents,  Inc.  (U.S  A)  ftn^ 'JIG Consultants Ltd, (UK.)
the Ministry ol Water Resources at th® Government ot Ethiopia
^toducecl on October 1B. 1996 TAMSAJLG, 1996
Filename:. mpian ap<r
/pLAN development
volume m
LOGICAL FRAMEWORK ANALYSIS MATRIX
Objective Variable
Indicators of
Means of Verification, i Assumptions, risks Quantification & and constraints
jirhievements & Targets i Assessment
rf[
tf^laDd
rtsour^5
•Raised regional and basin aggregated income, dynamic growth of Basin GDP, reduction of poverty level (Irving standard household survey).
•No conflicts over prior use of water, land, vegetation (forests), Social and environmental constraints to development No ethnic conflicts
♦Rise peasant ikrtner productivity 
incomes
•Water supply, hydro electric power, irrigation, and rainfed agricultural development, road development, animal husbandry, soil conservation,
reforestation, mineral resource development
• 15,000 ha rainfed banana, 231,000 ha of improved rainfed coffee; 25,500 ha commercial and
smallholder irrigated sugar cane providing import replacement, 15,000 ha double-cropped irrigated rice._______________ _____ • 1.4 million ha total improved rainfed cropping: 3.2 million t. incremental yield at full production
(2035), 231, 000 ha improved rainfed coffee included: 0.2 million, t. annual yield at full production (2035), 10,400 ha irrigated double cropped food crops and cotton & green manured 7 million t incremental production^ 5,5 00 ha double-cropped food crops, cotton and green fodder: 1.7 million t annual yield at foil production
•Transport of produce; Commercial and smaLholders sugarcane
Lt-----
a
iErJiarcement of
foreign exchange
earning capacity
•Improved commodities 
import/cxport balance accounts; Positive influence on monetary stabilisation. Inflation index
•Results of annual farm surveys and local taxes and income accounts; Coffee marketing and production records. Records of input purchases
•Marketing Finks support increased coffee, banana and rice production, Sugar mill can absorb cane production
•Coffee prices are acceptable, Export price level covers production costs, Transport links allow delivery of produce to processing plants
l^htnem ^em J 1 of
Pr,v^
•Improvement of regional investment ratio. Accountin a
__________________________________________ ___________________________
River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
•Fuel, spare parts are
1 available; New skills are forthcoming.
Chapter 5master plan DEVELOPMENT
T
-—- ------------------
Description of
Project Component
Objective Variable
Indicators of
Achievements & Targets
holdings, New opportunities in service sector
•Equal potential demand for energy through least-cost means
•Mini-hydro power and
other possible renewable energy resources Local hydropower development; Woodland  re-establishment (Figure 5-1)
Means of VerincaTTon
Quantification &
Assessment
system, privatisation records. Level of activities of private traders and entrepreneurs associations
•Production
distribution of energy balances and cost of energy. Households budgets. Living standards measurement survey. Survey of re established woodland areas 
•Promote environmental conservation measures
•Cost of investment is
fully  recoverable,  GOE subsidies are lifted
•Water catchment protection; Woodland rehabilitation. Improved crop husbandry (Figure 5.1)
• Soil erosion decreases, *Land tenure sul
(rate of land
improves. Soil
degradation); Low              conservation pou:
sedimentation,
monetary benefit!nt
Increased biomass             are received by to indicators. Turbidity at
extraction points reduces, Coffee waste biological oxygen demand declines. Soil conservation practices 
•Maximise economic benefits
.Marketing^
•Improved   rainfed cropping produces an IRR of  34%,  Irrigated  cropping produces an IRR between 10 and 13% depending on crop mix Increased road traffic due to increased volume of goods from increased crop and livestock production Mineral resource development
visible
•Profitability of farming and agro- industrial activities, Profitability of infrastructure. Economic appraisal and monitoring and evaluation system
Private^
attract^
---------- —------------------ -------------------------------------_------ _----------- -------------- -
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
64Objective Variable
Indicator* of
VOLUME m
I Means of Verification, Assumptions, risks
Quantification & Jk n* wt An *
| and constraints
Achievements «S^ Targets Assessment
a. B—Wlilfc—A
•Project area agricultural ! ’Wereda production
production surplus 
records. Monitoring and evaluation records. Agricultural extension records
I - I
| "Crop disease is net a
I constrain, Soil loss is 
I
I
1
j^elop scale
yp. industries (gihariced regions ^.jed value)
■ Agrn-processing facilities for grain, oilseeds, milling and sugarcane crushing have been identified
• Visible presence of small-scale agro industrial facilities;
! Order books and I financial records.
'
7Grater output for *Sugar for export or export and increased import replacement,
I
4
food security from imEated agriculture
I.____________________
•Enhanced export
Cotton   and   maize   for export.
•Port records and I national economic I records
controlled; Land tenure status improves; Animal I traction improves; Soil conservation effective I and remunerative _____  ,
•Credits freely 
available, and at market rates. Marketing links established. Local manufacture of spare parts; Customs’
I procedures rationalised, i II •L•Liinnks   ks ttoo ppoorrtts s cr creeaattee
losses to produce Customs' regulations
I
•Exports of materials and
| miketing capability  goods.
(
•Transhipment records. Bills  of  lading.  Balance of payment.
4------------------
I
-4---------------- —--- -------------------------
need streamlining. ______
•Customs   facilities   at ports Continued
I access, Railway  not an
^alternative.
v
•Efficient pattern of
•Interna!  demands  are  met,
1    •Frequency  of  black.
Jiilisstion of hydro-
Surplus is exported.
1 outs, load shifting;
i electric power
•Transmission Iinstallation.
1 Delay of metre
I
1
l.txpon, meet
installation
sternal demand, net
I
Assessment of tariffs.
4
L 
?
J
‘ proved tub^T”
™ W water
1 ^tlol*d soil and
•W'Waatteerrsusupppply ly ffuulflfilis ls MMinin•Number of wells; •Maintenance meets 
Water Resources Letter of i Length of pipe, Number , demand Installation is 
4 
-I
I
^ ter^n etvat
S
1On
-Poticy dated 1996.__________ _
•230,000 ha of grass strips; 95,000 ha of bunds,
I 1 6 million ha of protection forest, 310,000 ha of special use
i_ allocations.
•5,000 km of various 
of services__________ _ •Records from 33 wtredas mostly at risk; Aerial photo and
! remote sensed data ! interpretation; Ground
I self-financing •Land tenure
I adjustment I
I I
•«
L
1
I surveys.____________ _    4------------- -------- —________
•Contracts let and
•Roads planned to suit
classes of roads,
i monitored,
, development schedules 
| constructed in 4 tolO-year
1 Expenditures and
I access to dam sites and
, Phases to 2035.
1 accounts audited,
evacuation of
Visible verificatiotL
agricultural produce
1
k°bo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
Chapter 5
65master plan development
V1
Description of Project Component
Objective Variable Indicators of
Means  of  Verification, Quantification &
Achievements & Targets
Assessment
• Livestock
•Health improvement in
•Veterinary records at
general. Tsetse eradication
wereda and regional
X,
Draught animal
level,
improvement._____________
• Forestry
•Records   from   regional bureaux and MOA
• Increased and properly managed wildlife resources
• Attractive tourist sites and strengthened
•Forest inventory surveys; Gum tree pilot project to be established, Abandoned lands planted and woodlands rehabilitated. Management improved Staff numbers increase
•Staff numbers increase; Verification of parks and other protected areas. Establishment of Regional Wildlife Bureaux
•Eco-tourism to be strengthened, Staffing to be unproved in co-
•Survey data collected by Forestry Bureaux and Wildlife Rangers, Verification through remote sensed data and aerial overflights 
•Records from Regional Bureaux
• Staff number
and protected pg
delineation
migration romes
•Suitable and
appropriate
accommodaoi
institutions capability operation with Wildlife
Bureaux Improvement to I___________________ regional accommodation
•  Enlargement  of
basic community IIMUUI VCU V.
• Upgrade primary education services
•Health   improvement   in
general
•Record  for  Regional  •Suitable  hail'.sy® bureaux and MOA
• primary school in all
villages
•Co-ordination   by   the Ministry of Education.
•Increased yields and improved farmer income; Wereda and regional records
•Availability
• Greater farmer adoption of
improved agricultural practices
•Farming husbandry practices improved
.Availability
supplies on
transport^-" '
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
66■*
fi[ [ntrodui:t’on
n ts the Consultant's recommendations for institutional strengthening and
pits ChaP^initiatives that will be required for a successful implementation of the Master Plan
f institutional roles and responsibilities was carried out, putting the stress on
A ir>iew o jOfl of operational authority to the various regions included in the Basin,
reorganisation at the central level in the water resources sector and
balance by institutional strengthening at the level of the Basin considered as an entity
The role of the private sector has been underlined in the proposed institutional framework
Centring the implementation, a number of constraints  have been analysed and put in a logical fruiiework  matrix  together with the objectives  and the forecast results  of the Master Plan A catnx of the accompanying measures is also proposed
It is cruciaJ for the raising of finance that the proper institutional arrangements are in place tegether with appropriate cost recovery mechanisms
M Institutional Support
Proposed Project Interventions and Possible Timescale
L T'olv«nlfr'Cin °^tde interventions proposed in the Baro-Akobo River Basin Master Plan study 
cr,er a 40 ar® number of
c
individual projects spread over a wide range of economic sectors and
^«nrntnd Ti plannins horizon For institutional development and management purposes the ev elop eni scenario has been selected ( Scenario V)
m
tnain areas nF
proposed intervention are listed in chapter 5 uiterv
Wori(3
include   the   phased   development   over   the   whole   planning   period   of   major
Sj Ppiy       ° 45 dams* hydropower plant and lines, large scale irrigation schemes^ towns
■ T feasibility CRies and TOadworks in the basin). Most of these require further pre-feasibility study before in.plrmenut.on
^8t"Scaig jpj
■’ifu?1 ^Bory  f
o
CStmenu 816 lively to need significant elements of external financing The
^■.^hich . miervcntions includes projects of a less capital intensive rural development
ln^^ns. TheSe ■ startc<l more immediately and which will be mainly implemented by local Vtrtlent, coffee !nciPde catchment management and reforestation, rainfed agricultural
* ^Provement and (possibly) rural water supply. b ° River Bisin Integrated Development Matter Plan
67
Chapter 6master plan development
I
In addition to these two categories of projects, the Master Plan Study (which
on old data derived from the two previous basin consulting studies) has idem? "‘‘"H areas (eg topographical survey, soils and water quality, forest inventory oth 'hed a
or environmental baseline surveys) where detailed basin wide studies need to bT
shortterm
The management of implementation of the proposed basin developments pro
COrnp,eie<iin^
'I
therefore needs to take account both of the two different categories of projects^^
and of the different timescale for implementation of the two categories of project lmplcrne:*ec
Implementation of the Baro-Akobo Basin Master Plan developments will raise an issues which are applicable not only to this one basin but are also relevant to oth Basin developments.
m aB Riir
Co-ordination of the implementation of the proposed Master Plan developments is complex because of the complications posed by the following factors
♦
the contrast between implementing many multi-sectoral and rural development projects 
and implementing a one sectoral major water system development,
•   the fact that this study refers only to one river basin (Baro-Akobo) while the principles for
implementation here should also be applicable to other river basins,
•   the basin contains two rivers of international importance and its management thereon
involves national relationships with other riparian states,
•   the fact that the overall programme may need to be co-ordinated on a federal basis 
most of the individual projects will actually be implemented by one or other (or all> o t
four Regional Governments involved,
•   the need to distinguish between the activities to be carried out and co-ordinat^
short term and the major water works to be constructed in the medium and ong
balance th*®
4
In  making  proposals  for  institutional  arrangements  an  attempt  has  been  made  to
various factors
6.2.2 Project Implementation al Federal and Regional Level
A reading of Proclamation 92/1994 suggests that implementation of the ® ,
vcr
e
River Basin Master Plan - if regarded primarily as a question of developing
resources and catchment area - should be a matter within the authority 
e      r               nv0
Government. Many of the projects, especially the proposed rural d^ l°P \ ts i \
Blcn
actually be implemented and subsequently operated by the four Regional Gov _       sho
t]anon
The initial stages of basin development planning and integrated program^4
however be co-ordinated under federal authority for the basin as a        . the
whole
the four Regional Governments should be fully involved in planning and in>u
TAMS-l’LG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
z
68volume m
1
oui in tbeir individual region. We believe therefore that there is role for a
■jjtfU * mechanism during the initial stages of implementation of the Baro-Akobo < tf^rdl i ' -phis unit could be physically located in the basin area and would report to the
„Mistef Plan' , lV1th sub-units at each Regional Government
^Goveounent.wn
reached in the Organisation and Management report of the Omo-Gibe River
G4’’»clllSl0^en[ Master Plan Study differed slightly in emphasis from the conclusion above for
&i5®Pevel^p basjn The Omo-Gibe study did propose a Master Plan co-ordinating unit
UifO-A*® federal Council of Ministers, with regional co-ordinating sub-units It did not take
1°! mtemational (trans-boundary) nature of the basin water system and concluded
tccou** “fj e n0 case for any basin wide organisation responsible for implementing the
j) -hat lhsre ,
under Pl411 a™
>oi implementation and management of all developments should be the responsibility of the
l ‘) Xi Regional Governments.
'Im  iituation  in  the  Baro-Akobo  Basin  is  more  complex  in  that  its  trans  boundary  river  systems part  of  the  Nile  Basin  and  its  basin  area  falls  within  four  different  Regional  Governments 
fix  ins  reason there is  a need - as  in Omo-Gibe - for a basin co-ordination mechanism in the _^a: stages  of planning and initiating the Master Plan developments. More importantly  the consultants  for the Baro-Akobo study  believe that there should be a basin water management xansation for the purpose of dedicated planning, financing, construction, operation and -rair.tmance of the major basin water resources  development works  Because this  involves  an jitrwional” or irans  boundary  river system, because the rivers  cross  more than one regional xuadaiy and because financing of the major water works construction would need to be financed icd guaranteed through the national government it is thought right that such a unit should report loibe Federal authorities,
assumptions have been made
our different Regional Governments will have primary responsibility for implementing multi-sectoral developments (eg. rain fed agriculture, catchment improvement. urban
mral wal«r supply, roads) in tbeir part of the basin The major water resource
nvep °?ifnents ^ams f° hydropower,
r
large irrigation schemes) involve trans-boundary 
ordin LTIlerrnat,onal waters ') flowing across more than one regional government. Co-
invQivll°n the P  J
ro
ect is thus treated as a federal responsibility but with the full
?
°F support to the regions involved
j°natin two stages.
^^ninarv^k ^rst ®Ve y^3 ' *s concerned with co-ordination of plans for the basin,
^^lopme aS^n
^sin a J11 P °j
r
short tenn implementation both of multi-sectoral rural e€ts and of preparation for specific water works developments in the
°f the f*111CVC| Pr°Srtimme Co-ordinating Unit (PCU) is proposed wrth sub units in
f Qr studies °Ur re®ona^ government administrations involved Technical assistance, funds ^plertienta^^ training would be directed (as required) to the regional governments for
10 h                       a means of strengthening local capacity' At the same time specific
obo River Baxin Integrated Development Mister Plan
69
Chapter 6master plan development
V °Lui^h1
funds for water resource development could be directed to
studies and preparatory works for later construction (See Figure £Feparat'on Of f
)■ Phase 2 - the design, construction and operation of major w
establishment of an autonomous Baro-Akobo Basin Water M^ resotJrc« w proposed. This would be responsible for supervising construction*"?*"10'1' K? for operating and for maintaining the basin water system It wouM
Wa,er ’
cost   recovery   by   receiving   payments   for   water   charges   from   th   °   0P°ra,e    0,11     C*-
would retain monies to cover its approved costs of operation 6
*** i'
capital works  and pass  the surplus  on to government to cover the*™  niaJn,enance Of /
the works  Regional governments  would be represented on its  bo^d* ***£
would also receive taxes, revenue from permits  etc  from water ° man^e"*ni w
in their area (see Figure 6.2).
6.2.3 Role for Basin Co-ordinating/Management Unit - Short and medium term
® projCc,s/enterpnse!
The  timescale  for  implementation  of  the  proposed  Master  Plan  interventions  was  described  '  ik Volume,   Chapter   4   Two   different   phases   of   activity   were   identified.   The   first   phase   of implementation  involves  the  carrying  out  of  detailed  basin  wide  studies  to  update  earlier  techroo. studies  and  to  provide  baseline  data  for  monitoring  and  evaluation  purposes  During  this  &s stage  it  would  be  necessary  to  integrate  the  basin  and  regional  planning  for  the  initial  multi sectoral  development  projects  and  to  initiate  early  implementation  by  the  appropriate  regional zonal and wereda administrations of the projects in their areas
(1)                     Role for Basin Co-ordinating Unit
The role for a basin co-ordinating unit during the first stage would be:
to provide a central point for integrating the Master Plan basin developments with
plans of the individual regions
cnADS for to initiate the necessary basin wide studies, passing these as appropriate to r.
implementation and collating the data received on a basin wide basis,
in
to provide a focus for promoting infrastructural development and tn
basin and for raising finance for basin wide developments
genci^50 to channel technical and financing support to the regional ^P’^^^pnients 
to build up their capacity to implement future basin and regiona ev
nunence plan * to provide a specialised basin water resources section to co
detailed water resource and pre-construction studies for W ^g^cated b ®” *
n  n?^
4
resources projects and, at a later stage, to develop into e management body proposed below
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master PlanI     j'rnjrainn'f     Co-ordination ( Unit (PCU)
| Soard of Managem ent------- I
Manager
- Studies Water M&E --------- Devpt
------ Composedof
Chairman: appointed byMWR Members: 4 regions
Mm.  of  Agriculture Other Ministries
_______
r—-----                1                                                 1
______
Gambela
regional
^-Government
Oromia
Regional
Self-Government
SNNPRG
Regional
Self-Government |
Benshangui-Gumuz
Regional
Self-Government
Economic
Sector
Economic
Sector
Economic
Sector
Ponai
PCU
ZZC / ' ~
- i___ —
Bureau
PCI
Nanning I K'S'Onal
 _
_________
Bureau
ell
Economic
Sector
Bureau
of Planning
PCT Regional L
Cell
of
Planning
Regional
Cell
of Planning
( Existi
ng Structure
‘Cl’
^Cejj
D'Pt     of
O
Newly   Propo
sed   Structure
Panning
PCU [J Dept
of
in Addition to
the Existing
Zo
nal Ceil
Planning
* n>’AliObo ftver Baai,
m Integmied Development Master Plan
Chapter 6MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT
----------------------------------------------------------------------------- —
FIGURE 6-2 : POSSIBLE ORGANISATION FOR BARn IMPLEMENTATION FOR SECOND PHASF K°B°
DESIGN, CONSTRUCTION, OPERATION OF Ma WATER WORKS SYSTEM
'
TAMS-L’LC Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development
721 thC CC
o f development would involve:
—icncement  of  construction  of  major  water  works  (e.g.  dams,  irrigation  and hyd*^rorvwpoweresch r scnememes ^ a— nd main distribution systems) and        -J
continuation of multi-sectoral developments in the regions
2. d*
haoe  the  multi  sectoral  role  of  the  phase  I  basin  co-ordinating  unit  would  reduce piinng    P    activities    could    be    taken    over    by    the    Regional    Governments    with    co-
1   11
irJ  unp ® ®'
jn    ^de  issues  being  maintained  by  the  regional  cells  of  the  former  basin  co-
ufdinaticn on              specialised water resources activities of the basin co-ordinating unit
^^^hould continue and be absorbed into a new basin water management organisation
p                            Role of Basin Waler Management Body
pie role of the basin water management unit during the second phase of implementation
»ould be
» to prepare terms of reference for and commission feasibility and other studies 
preparatory to construction of major water works
•   to supervise on behalf of government construction works for major basin water
system works being earned out by contractors
•   to prepare plans and budgets for subsequent operation and maintenance by itself of completed constructions
•   to undertake responsibility for overall management of the basin water resources and
bulk water distribution system
to   recover   (according   io   tariffs   established   by   government)   charges   from   major Users for water consumed.
Further developments
ft
general  -I con urce$ management and cost recovery
*ater „  '~"ss  ensi
e
appears to be emerging that water is a valuable commodity and that P °gressively be expected to pay part (or all) of the costs of
r
its use This 
^ned and * be reflected in lhc acceptance within Ethiopia of the need for tariffs to be ’^hnaTa-reco      tended    nationally    both    for    potable    water    users    and    for    large    scale
j
gror  m
° ^dduust strniaall oorr iinndduust strriiaall users
-
and^° ^
r
ter resource development works the issues of effective supervision of
3
canals?^^ ^ operation and maintenance of the major structures (dams or main ^s^UCt3°11 of such construc^on is of particular importance. The growing trend is for the
^Orks io works to be supervised and subsequent operation and maintenance of the e Assured by an organisation which can recover charges from water users
~’ .
° ver Basiq Integrated Dev dupmeo t Master Ptan
Chapter 6
73master plan development
---- ---------- ------------------------------- —
and retain sufficient sums from this recovery to pay for professional
maintenance of the water system The same principle would extend to water °Pera‘ion
05
imgation scheme The costs of operating and maintaining the local field distrib ^
works might be assured by a water users association who would recover the r^'0" or
of doing so from the individual imgated plot holders.
(2) Land resources management
Considering the dangers and consequences of soil erosion and land degradation f and the development potential of agriculture (rainfed and irrigated) form the °ne similar analysis could be done for land, i.e. that land is a valuable commodity and ‘ should progressively expected to pay part or all of the costs of its use The • 1405 annual soil loss in Ethiopia is currently estimated to be between 1.5 to 2 0 billi™*™  * * consequence is a productivity decline of about 1% per annum
Land resources allocation has been designated in the Master Plan , parallel to water re allocation, and this exercise shows no upland area suitable for farming without one or
rea sonab]e
11  1
n tonDes Its
restriction to its use Map 36, land capability and farming systems shows areas that are suitable
only for catchment protection Between those two extremes, farming and catchment
protection, there appear a range of sites suitable for forestry and livestock
If in turn, land is  to be considered as  a scarce resource and an economic  factor to be remunerated, as  water is  becoming, it is  justified to consider land as  a federal responsbih-y and as  a consequence, dunng Phase 2, the multi sectoral role of the Phase 1 basin co ordinating unit would continue and implementation activities  could be developed as  for those in water resources  In this  case, the Baro Akobo Basin Water Resources  Authority  could be transformed into a Baro Akobo Basin Water and Land Resources Authority
The implementation of land resources  development programmes  will of course
decentralised, (for rainfed agriculture e g the extension programmes  will be retained by 
be
me
Ministry of Agriculture regional bureaux). In the field of land the role of the management would be:
•     to propose land resources allocation : catchment protection, grazing, agncult^ irrigation sites, etc
♦    to prepare terms of reference for and commission feasibility and othe preparatory to the allocation of land in a site or a zone
to propose the implementation measures of the land ownership legi atl
to undertake responsibility for overall management of the basin w and bulk land allocation system
unit
ter reso^^
any charge
to recover (according to tariffs established by the Government; taxes from land use
____  -—
TAMSULG Baro-Akobo River Buin Integrated Development MasterPtan
74volume m
constraints have been dealt with
in this Volume and reference is made to Annexes 
Nog1 E^uation’ 2B S0',S SOH ConseRation' 21
2L Livestock and IH
Ration.
reservoirs for Similarly. irrigation
artrS
ome   pan   of
fcuta Both of tin
hydropower dams  will displace about households  and inundate land, construction such as  main and secondary  canals  and ragfat storage will he command area, and afreet some of the households currently occupying se categories of households wifl have to be relocated.
according to the guidelines  issued by  international lending institutions  as  World Bank  and Afjian Development Bank, displaced people should be given preference in the allocation of nigaled land under a definite scheme
This the options given to farmers are to be resettled in the irrigation scheme command area, when their livelihood was  previously  established, io receive a plot of land Grom the State,
■•ben land becomes available in the framework of a privatisation scheme of a state owned fine, io be resettled in another area where land is available for occupation.
This  issue is  very  important as  it has  been related that in the pan, the greatest insecurity “feng prospective irrigation beneficiaries has tended to be at the construction/planning phase ^faring to mass evictions accompanying irrigation development in the Awash Valley in earlier jkades Owing to this, large community involvement will be necessary at these earlier stages 
nr>ore,  it  will  be  a  sine  qua  non  condition  of  success  to  building  the  new  institutional described below
0  011
Ptticipf?^ ^
i key  fetor t0
Baro
Basin Master Plan will require active people
-         ™’sa^On   of  the  economic  benefit  Security  of  land  tenure  would  be
CnSU C  Tnax
fixed Assets COr,vince farmers and entrepreneurs to male long term investment in land and
lj|l97s- land h
^fit a tisufriCCame state property, and individual holdings  were limited to 10 ha Fanners 
> 'abour an? bht land canjlot be sold’ CTchail8^ leased or
Tenancy,
j
la
and Slm^ar traditional systems have been abolished Large holdings have been transformed in State owned farms, settlement schemes and co-operatives.
JC8Ie and reajj &nSl a* lowest level of the administrative structure were assigned to
enc°niD^ate 'an^’
Associations administer areas covering approximately 800
S |?8 lndividiiai plots and some communal areas for grazing and or forested i n boundaries have been said io be well delineated, although conflicts have
^ons Or SOl^e documents The prevailing actual status is close to a status quo where Ocalions of land take place
_________
0 River Basin Integrated Development Mister Plan
75
Chapter fimaster plan development
The last constitutional conference endorsed this situation and land n
with usufruct rights to farmers. Retaining State ownership has of co^' remain «ate 0 those fearing a return to the past times of large land ownership and^' ^PPohmk measuring the risk of land speculation and other abuses such as deprivat tCnanc> and/
because of insolvency 
Nevertheless some traditional schemes still continue to exist as share
H l0n °f agricultural
hiring     are     necessary     to     facing     permanent     or     temporary     shortages     of     labo'Tt8™*..
significant examples is women-headed households. At present, none of th
of lhe most
legally   sanctioned,   neither   are   the   new   rental   agreements   appearing   JI*   5JTan8€In««J   ic
schemes,  but  out  of  the  Basin  area
"Perceived long term tenure rights to specific pieces of land, may encourage Iona
s   ewhere  in  imgu^
investment such as planting of perennial crops Furthermore, the likelihood that a given plot
land will pass on to heirs, provides some incentive to take conservation measures to the
extent that such are known and the means to carry them out provided
Obviously, assigning ownership rights  on land to individuals  and lifting restrictions  on land transactions  are supported by  those arguing that this  would enhance tenure security  which would in turn stimulate investment. One mentioned possibility  is  that the long term lease In related to urban land (Proclamation 80 1993) might be extended to the countryside as  a measure to enhance tenure security  and long term agricultural investment The leasehold measure looks  intensely  unpopular among urban property  holders  and is  unlikely  to be favoured in rural areas unless lease rates remain at nominal level
The factors influencing the land tenure issues are
• claims (old rights to land, conupt distributions of land from the former Producers 
Co-operatives, boundary conflicts)
• pressure on land (ex soldiers, landless young people)
• size of farm for intensive practices
soil erosion control practices that fanners can implement without *ni^,lonS °|{
outside capital and which they employ because they provide a meaningfu re
that they could recognise
Recently* theandsuPPortinS
resulted in agricultural a polltlcaJ and administrative responsibility to the rec
Ministry-of XX t1ZmCnt               Agnculture has been re-organised at headquarters level into six main tevhm
1 Small scale irrigation consolidation project preparation report TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
76•    ^-ordinate interregional extension projects
(
advise  regional  bureaux  of  agriculture  in  extension  administration  and  management
, train extension workers; and
conduct research and pilot programmes
m 5 m the current context, regional bureaux of agriculture are the key institutions io
^ping farming in their own jurisdiction specifically they are responsible for
•    providing agricultural extension services to farmers
« promoting agricultural development programmes
i improving the delivery of inputs and credit to farmers
•    undertaking research and training
•    and establishing seed production.
A modified version of the T&V extension system has been introduced tn 1985 as component of the Peasant Agriculture Development Project (PADEP), with assistance from the World Bink Although a ratio of 1 Development Assistant to 800 farmers was considered desirable, it las been widened to k 13 00 due to budgetary constraints Early success of this strategy could wt be sustained due to the worsening of the financial situauon and the changes  in the ««fidary's organisation
a )Changes in the beneficiaries organisation
• farmer Peasant Associations have been replaced by Kebele Administration (KA) which report to the appropriate wereda executive committee Kebele Administrations have to be the principal link between the Government and the rttral population and they should play an important role in the project s 
' mPlementation
77MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT
effectiveness  They  face  increased  competition  from traders and fertilisers distributors
• Producers co-operatives have largely been disbanded
Rural Development
, rn ardinating Committees (RDCC) have been or are be™ 
formed at the region. , c 
wcreda and kebele levels with hierarchical potentia] development projects
At   the   kebele   level,   t   mobiUse    peasant    resources,   supervise   and   monnor
participate tn their p
to lhc wercda development co-ordinating
This means that RDCC will have a major role in the proposed catchment and irrigation development schemes
b)         The newly established Regional Bureaux of Agriculture, working through that zonal and wereda offices are poorly staffed and the ratio is sometimes higher than recommended
Currently, regional activities are limited to in-service training, formulation of extension policy and guidelines and monitoring and evaluation of extension programmes
Professional and extension staff and subject matter specialists are urgently needed to develop appropriate extension packages for peasant fanners and financial and mateni resources for adaptive trials and demonstrations
c)         The Ministry of Agriculture assumed some of the responsibilities of the
Ministry of Natural Resources Development and Environmental Protection when this latter Ministry was abolished and the (new) Ministry of Water Resources (MWR1 established MWR was given all responsibilities related to water resources 
NRDEP ceased to exist The Ministry of Agriculture assumed the tasks of’ss^oreS
monitoring directives related to protection and administration of the countn
and wild life resources, of demarcating and registering national parks,
and protective forests (in co-operation with Regional Governments), o a
national parks and of providing assistance for forest development.
deals  with l^ee<s^ICl^tUr€ j concerned MOA deals  with small scale schemes  while M**
Natural Resources ™pons ^^^^
lb
develoPments But until the abolishment of the Minist^ Ennronmental Protection, the precise
region and, furthermore the r*° m™tnes over smaU xaIc irrigation vaned from
the former Minkhv/.rM
sometimes 
inconsistent
instruction of a small scale irrigation scheme
DesiJ^/betWeen
nadonaJ
ormer Mmtshy of Namm) Resources but
input support was provided by the Ministry of Agriculture .
supppn possWe organs"
of
Most critical appears to be the dissolution of what has been the -or funct'orlS Irrigation Development Department which formerly had embraced all t e
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Pl*°fgP
LANDEVELO?ME.VT
VOLUME in
7 to manage a small scale irrigation scheme as, beyond this structure there is 
. with irrigation extension in the counts 
flce
’
^jtedexpe
k whole could not function for prospective large schemes,
a
because  it  is  too
; a sector (extension), and responsibilities are distnbuted to to
o many institutions
Itip  f inputs supply and marketing of products
o
**‘"^changes in the modalities of support services provided to the rural world are
had been linked to ministries which have now been radically restructured
•    those formerly provided by institutions that either no longer exist or are in a serious weakened state
•    those affected by incipient moves toward privatisation
ji  The  AJSCO  is  the  main  agency  responsible  for  procuring  and  distributing  fertilisers, ^■chemicals  and  farm  equipment  (180  OOOtonnes  of  fertilisers  distnbuted  in  1993-1994) MSCO   has   regional   offices   and   400   marketing   centres   controlled   by   the   Ministry   of Aciculturc  and  having  limited  storage  capacity  Market  liberalisation  may  induce  a  loss  of  its monopoly over inputs procurement and distribution
it b interesting to mention that in some small scale irrigation schemes, the 1994 utilisation 'evtis  have dropped below half of their standard because of lack  of fertilisers. Inputs inability also affect types of use, expressed interests from farmers in growing a definite type if crop ire often thwarted by the lack of access to corresponding seeds or planting materials
idiffh now Devel°pment Bank  of Ethiopia (DBE) is  mandated to provide credit and n ankmg services  to the rural population. From 1974, a major share of its  loans  went to ji'tn t * producers co-operatives now dismantled. The fertiliser loans that have been
Portfob ^Srmers lhrou
b
8 service co-operatives were only a small portion of the total
The Eqtk h k
^hasint a ~ beCn reor8an’sed following the changes  in government policy  on grain
EGte has  haiJl°°^ secur’ty  stocks  According to the last available information (1995), the
’" cdasc ofoil
r         se^
sma^    amounts    of    the    grain    produced    but    remained    an    important
/J Tile ESE- . . tonnes 
last five years, its annual production of seed has averaged about
)
tU;ri! '3»prove  ^
and C eared seed. 12% of the potential market ESE production planning,
ra   eCd Pacing was dependent on Government regulations and policy Despite
^al issue ° S'
retailing of improved seeds is still weak and seed quality remains
p l°ts> even ’
** of usl ? ,rT18ated> labour does not appear to be a major factor in the optimisation abour does become a constraint for the households cultivating larger plot
■
_________________ _________________________________________________________________________
fci'er Basin Integrated Development Muter Plan
79
Chipwrimaster plan development
------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
sizes  (probably  > 1.5 ha), or where irrigated plots  generate crop-calendar co fl-
crops (rather seldom).
To overcome shortages of labour, labour exchange groups, usually consistin members (jigge in Amharic and wanfal in Oromo) are widely used either f °f f°Ur t0 sx weeding or for harvesting Casual labour hiring is also becoming more wides CU,t‘Vat‘on overcome this constraint
lcts with
Ppead as a
Water users’ associations
Traditional water users’ associations coexist with more formal ones borne after
former Producers Co-operatives management structures Even being not too' €C°"^)seof Basin, their experience could be useful for building future organisation of ini the
fanners 
Traditional Water Users Associations, by respect for traditional authority tend to ha h-, enforcement records than more formal associations They are usually established management of small sized schemes (50-100 ha) have their own rules and be able to im
gated scl't«ie
fines on violations (by taking water out of turn, flooding a neighbour’s field ..) But, eva-
traditional associations can fail in maintaining a water distribution, when for any reasons the
system upstream is no longer able to supply enough water to the members, creating unit- competition between them
The main problems  encountered by  the water users’ associations  in small scale irrigation schemes are occasional conflicts with upstream users diverting water, absence of co-ordinauwi between users  associations  dependent from a definite scheme and, specially  in traditional associations, the highly time consuming yearly reconstructing of diversion
6.3.2 Management aspects of project implementation
The Master Plan design intents that the proposed programme should be an efficient condur for development resources (funding) to the identified allocations This has been developed
the Logical framework analysis below: to satisfy the identified goals and objectives in line wt
the national priorities for the various sectors
Answering the different questions raised in section 6.3.1 above needs an integrated app
on the following pillars
cten in line with The process of regionalisation is an important and necessary si p contrQ| to tl* Government policy to give greater responsibility' and management
regions
»      _ jiithcnt))’ Assurance that there is only a three tier system (national - regm
described above, is welcomed
style*
•     The previous system of centralised government and consensus should be diverted to a more liberalised approach for government
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
80,|X
FkAN DEVELOPMENT
VOLUME m
Support     institutions   network   should   be   simplified   towards   3     more   enterprise
directed   approach,   and   privatisation   of   execution   functions   previously   conducted
by
the   State   should   be   developed   at   the   earlier   stages   of   the   Master   Plan
Implementation.    The    project    approach    should    be    carefully    reviewed    and corporatization of functions should be developed
• Participation of population should be searched through self managed institutions and hierarchisation should be avoided, in favour of self supporting rural collective
approach
and land tenure
Klale private sector activities  are at present quite limited in the basin, a number of future opportunities  can, if continued governmental policy  support for private enterprise development is forthcoming, be envisaged
Imtsiment Opportunities
in  terms  of  attracting  domestic,  joint  venture  or  foreign  private  investment  in  large  scale developments the possibilities are;
•  commercial  estate  farming  on  large  irrigated  schemes  in  the  lower  basin  Under  former policies   such   large   scale   developments   were   exploited   by   state   farms   With   some exceptions  these  are  now  being  commercialised  and,  when  converted  into  joint  stock 
shareholding)   companies   it   may   be   possible   to   attract   new   investmenr   from   private
■nvesors  and,  if  profitable,  from  government  funds  In  the  longer  term  it  may  be  possible envisage private investors entering into commercial ventures on new irrigated land
comm ^rrnJn® (coffee, tea other crops) on rainfed land in the upper basin Similar
to t^  category although the investment may be smaller and the time scale
s
p ^,e participation.
Bkely fo/011 °^erdtlon maintenance of major water resource development works II is Plant and Urr;C ¥et that the investment in major water works (e g. dams, hydro-power
fr'5' main distribution canals) will have to be made by the state with financing f Ql tapid fin ^ternational development agencies. In circumstances where there is scope Ms such « k41 retUms' private investment has been attracted into the construction of
Tt Paid n. ydro-power dams or toll road bridges on condition that the investment can
E oittr»~ . 1 Of Profile i______________ _ C. _______________ —.
CQrrtr*ct             ^.profits to be made from the subsequent opention and maintenance
and maintenance
^Ssihk
that
k* in the Haro-Akobo bastn Two
ical DlantC prePared to justify an investment against its own resources m
and distribution lines on the basis of an economic cost of electricity
81master PLAN development
Vol^ til
generation into its national or local power system Secondly, it might be
01
private investment by way of working capital from an enterprise wi/ ^ ' ’° Mtra
108       lalte
management contract for operation and maintenance of the basin water s  *° on
the state would continue to own the capital works which would be operated^ ln lhls
a private operator under contract
° nitsbilfb
y
Other areas of opportunity, especially for domestic private investors 
n   nerai
development, in the small scale agro-industrial processing sector, in agricultural  ’*
in rural technology and small scale machinery and in the storage, processing and^111
agricultural produce Opportunities have also been identified for possible joint v marketlng of
tourism sector in the lower basin.
ventures in
Investment Code
The government has introduced a new investment code (Investment Proclamation 37 io
18   June   1996)   This   replaces   the   previous   investment   code   enacted   under   proc!   %°f 15/1992   and   introduces   some   improved   concessions   for   domestic   investors   The   coded"* not   apply   to   investments   in   prospecting,   exploration   and   development   of   minerals petroleum resources and continues to reserve certain areas for the government (e « large scak production  of  electrical  energy),  for  domestic  investors  (e  g  various  trades  in  agncuitural  w animal  products,  saw  milling,  grain  milling)  and  for  joint  ventures  (e  g  engineering  industries and   fertilisers)   It   establishes   a   new   administrative   structure   for   investment   Under   ar. Investment  Board,  the  Ethiopian  Investment  Authority  -  an  autonomous  public  institution  - will   provide   one-stop   services   for   promotion,   registration   and   licensing   of   investments Regional   investment   organs   (investment   organs)   will   be   established   in   the   Regional Governments  The  responsibility  for  allocating  land  for  investment  activities  however  rests with the Regional governments, who are required to deliver the required land within 60 days
Land tenure
For purposes of agricultural investment the terms and security on which land is made available
is probably more important than the investment exemptions on payment of duties, tax.
research and development and remittance of funds which are contained in the code
present basis of offering the use of agricultural land for terms of eight years will b*
unacceptable to any investor who is expected to make a serious investment
improvements, capital buildings or field irrigation systems This issue will
attention by national policy makers and regional investment offices If comm
are to be attracted to the project area for the large scale irrigation schemes 3
concession period with assured land and water use of 40 years would seem to
The local investment offices in Regional Government administrations shoul , a afeaS of
negotiating with potential agricultural sector investors, have authority to offer sui
land on appropriate lengths of lease
ni u. facilitated fo’j Domestic investment in agncuitural services and agro-processing also will dc
establishment by the new agricultural service co-operatives operating a acces$ to basis In these cases, too, it will be important that these organisations can have or capital against the security of their land or buildings as collateral.
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
82^".wpoliaic s,a,e cn,e,prises'
0SI
challenging options of this Mastei Plan will be to raise a high rhythm of *            1 a- . ~ I * n lm n i I b-k     rw ■ ft a a a a —a —
5|0m will have to be issued in the near future.
Liberalisation of the commercial banking system should not be delayed unnecessarily, as jnate banking facilities  are urgently  needed to supplement existing controlled credit Polities imi institutional investment opportunities  Other sources  of credit should be authorised it is oot compulsory that EDB will be the sole lender for credit based inputs.
Mimi credit and small-scale rural credit should be developed as an answer to the needs of the ncallest peasant farms unable to have an access to more sophisticated formulas
kfeWKMi ^Services
ft* extension services in the country are at present the responsibility of the Extension under the Extension and Co-operative Promotion Department of the Ministry of
However a new structure for the Ministry of Agncuhure (MOA) is presently consideration and may be introduced in the next fiscal year
liabilities  f the Extension Division are as listed below
o
. Provide policy advise on agricultural extension issues,
. c^Ofdinate inter-regional extension projects,
advise regional bureaux of the place of agriculture in extension administration and t   n'^gement,
• tra^ extension workers, and
conduct research and pilot programmes
S3MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT
Vo ^ o
•    to improve the delivery of inputs and credits
•    to undertake research and training,
•    establish seed production
The regional and wereda bureaux would be ultimately responsible for
protection, home economics, soil and water conservation, food crops1
livestock Subject Matter Specialists would be available to assist
' bort,c,,1ture.
At the field level the Development Agent (DA) is the main extension worker
farmers’ level The supervision tasks are normally carried out by an Exten '
* Clost$t!°
Each group of fanners  consists  of one contact farmer and a number of f5|?n Supcrv'50:
Ratios  have been mentioned in an earlier paragraph and appear laree du t°*er fannen
budgetary constraints 
8 t0 8°v«Wnt
Home economics extension workers are organised in a different manner Female '
economics officers are wereda-based and visit wives of contact fanners once a month in™ ideal situation each wereda is staffed by two home economics officers These workers - ■*"* nutrition, health and sanitation, housing, appropriate technology, income generating activihK mother and child care and family planning
Extension programmes  organised by  the extension service include, soil and water conservation, food crops, perennial and semi-perennial crops fruits and vegetables, livestock processing and storage These subjects are demonstrated according to land use considerations and the agricultural calendar for the region
The research extension linkage is  of crucial importance and is  the responsibility  of the Research Extension Liaison Committee (RELC) The MOA and the Institute of Agricultural Research (1AR) are the main partners in the link. The main aim of this co-operation is to liaise about the following matters
identify bottlenecks to production improvement,
substantiate priority farm development constraints and determine appropriate research policies and objectives,
evaluate on-going research programmes and results and assess new pro prepare appropriate recommendations on improved practices of crop
production,
review extension programmes and make recommendations on e and approach,
monitor the dissemination of approved recommendation
.
The success of the extension services to a large extend depends on the av^ ^
a
and appropriate transport. The minimum requirement for DAs to be effect1'6 mule
Corporatization
The proposed Master Plan activities will require appropriate mecbani survival of the investment in the course of the two first phases pr°P
,  a|,j Cvcleor a
.              ^$1^thf
,^“>PMENT
VOLUME in
_ hown that COITlplex resource ajkx^'on m limited duration period cfeariv need
ri« BU. il » nece5Sa?' 10 P'0^' ,he “”7 "to « «fv«l
^nonsibilities- managing a large irrigation scheme, an hydropower plant, etc
2^eIt
inning the entity ,n *
C °mp4ny ” prtXess of P™sarion of ns
U^tt [r^S often use^J^t0 corPorat’se i e even s^cs are still sate owned, that the
11 * ](J autonomous and managed through a separaic budget allowing the entity to earn its own revenue
jcorpoi® ®*
3
yhrrinf  t0
°fprincipal project interventions
the  principal  basin  development  interventions  proposed  in  the  Bar  a-  Ako  bo  basin implementation responsibilities are expected to be as follows
muster Pl*11-
for Hydropower.
planning stage
Initial  studies  would  be  commissioned  by  Water  Development  Section  of  the  proposed Programme Co-ordinating Unit (PCU).
Implementation stage
Tr.e Basin Water Management Authority  (BWMA) would be established to supervise preparation of structural designs  and to liaise with EFI.PA concerning hydro power plant and transmission lines. The role of BWMA is  to act on behalf of govtrnrnem as owner of the works  (e.g. in the French expression as  ntaitre d'ouvrage) while a retained consulting engineer retained by  BWMA (eg maitre d'oeuvre) would supervise the contractors constructing the dam
'hjor IrrigitiQ]] schemes.
Planning stage
bdrial studies would be commissioned by the Water Development Section of the PCU in
^Moration, through the Regional PCU cell, with the waler and agricultural bureaux 
^cemed The PCU would co-ordinate the involvement of private commeroal
00 terms agreed by the national and regional Investment Offices, with the
r «?onal admioistranon
T^’’e/Ifa,'on stage
4mj slsn r *atCr ’^e bWMA) negotiates  water supply  agreements  with large scale user ^Lholri I!USes  w’t^1 regional bureaux  on the creation of water user associations  for pre Parati * irh®ated agriculture, The PCU Water Section (later the BWMA) supervises *sabOve°n of ^mctural designs and supervises construction of major works generally
«^8ement and Reforestation
? PrDpri«eeh regianaJ PCU cells liaises with regional planning bureaux (andI -if P ^ 8stao ?th TeglOnal “Sustainable Agricultural Resources Commissions ) in
n
^8e for subsequent implementation by regional agriculture and water ur
—— ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ - ——-
cmpiH-ti
Vfcr Integrated Development Master Plm
S3MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT
------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------- ri] Rain fed Agriculture and Coffee Improvement
Planning stage
PCU through regional PCU cells liaises with regional planning and during planning stage
Implementation stage
implementation by the regional agriculture bureaux and Ineai services
Town and Rural Water Supply
Planning stage
^culture
PCU liaises with the regional planning and water bureaux in the planning stage
Implementation stage
Implementation done by the regional water bureaux and/or local water depan the use (where appropriate) of private regional contractors operating tonaS'’^ supply and sewerage construction standards 
Waier
Roads
Planning stage
PCU liaises with the Ethiopian Roads Authority in case of main roads and PCU regional cell with planning bureaux and local regional roads agencies where applicable in the case of regional or local roads during planning stage.
Implementation stage
Implementation is  carried out by  ERA or regional roads  agency  with the use (where appropriate) of road contractors  operating to approved national road construction standards
63.4 Agency for municipal and rural civil works
Considering the importance of small scale investments included in the Master Plan and io favour privatisation of previously public works directly carried out by the State or by 
owned enterprises, it is suggested to create in the Basin an Agency for municipal an
civil works
The main functions (decentralised from National or regional Government) should be
acting  as  the  maitre  d’ouvrage  for  small  scale  municipal  and  rural including local roads, feeder roads, health centres, small scale water sup
I Feder^ being the funding agent for the proposed civil works financed throu
Government revolving funds 
imDldncrt’1*1115
undertaking responsibility to supervise the small scale enterprisesacting 35 construction or delegating this responsibility to an engineer/arc 
maitre d-oeuvre.
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master PlanDEVELOPMENT
. promoting the development of Dnv«
enterprises in the Basin.
c^uni0‘^arficv^'on
^jjvuKement of and consultation with 1
P sn^l
COn5tnjct]Or]
implementation of the proposed ba^n 70nWlUn/ri« durino ■ .
regional. aonal. wereda
’« ««1 pl^
Mil be faethtated t>     | r,™'
y llK  0
te
jUoman with farmer associations „ „ ^arliu
raj ® ^'Won „
w                       of
.M through its regional p    X “^ves and
CU
«n     ™
1CK
eHurs and workshops for num     ^  availa
n
ma  e
ble som* s ^   Ps It y „
0IJ
"* tan Master Plan develop™™ 
‘""‘^"8
ZfaSn "*
Chapter 6volume in
1 -, te studies performed to prepare the present Maser Plan a ownba rf
•I*1 “ d^elopme"'8 have been revtwed and evaluated on then technical and ranMnia|
n as for their potential benefits to the Baro-AJcobc basin and ta Ethiopia
ntv -two   dams   with   reservoirs   for   flow   regulation   and   water   conservation   have **£d"  These  reservoirs  have  been  sized  to  serve  hydropower  plants  and  'or  irrigation
* frlSjeS   me  of  the  reservoirs  have  also  been  assessed  for  their  potential  in  preventing  or ^flooding   in   the   lower   plains   between   the   foothills   and   the   Pibor   river,   Thirty-sotn ^lants  ranging  from  the  very  large  power  station  at  the  TAMS  dam  where  12.060  MU' 'Jbe  installed,  down  to  the  cascade  of  for  micro-hydropower  plants  at  Beresha  with  a "'-fflbjncd  installed  capacity  of  320 kW. With regards to irrigation, nineteen projects covering ,-st  irea  of  482,000  irrigable  hectares  have  been  evaluated  in  the  low  land  alone  These jojtets use water which is either pumped from the river downstream of a regulating dam or awtlv  from  the  impoundment  upstream  of  the  dam,  some  other  are  simply  fed  by  gravity mx-gfi tn intake located at the dam and a canal leading to the head of the irrigation complex 
•niiation of these various types of projects through several successive screenings led to the diction  of  sixteen  technically  and  economically  viable  projects  at  the  Master  Planning  level kuting  ten  dams  for  hydropower  development  and  six  dams  for  irrigation.  Although  at  this Mt,  some  of  the  lower  ranked  project  appear  to  be  marginal  on  economic  grounds  project stflts were prepared for completeness and as a reference for future studies
jnong <he better hydropower options, two projects stand out to be further evaluated a t the ' teaa^>ifrty level, namely the Geba project and the Gumero project.
a, P  ject is a medium to large size hydroelectric project which can be connected to
ro
£fotrnft|0,ln^:ted ®ystem OCS) to feed the national grid From the discerning process 
^fcantiyV 6 ^asier level, this project ranks among the best project economically at a
^ansitm pi 0051 thaT1 many’ if not aU’ the hydropower projects currently in the
million CT° ^^PA. The project consists of a 45 metre high earthfill dam impounding C!terete dairn rt rnCll CS (^rncm) of water, over an area of 66, kmJ and two downstream small
W3Ier 11110 canals> 3 5 and 6 0 JonS respectively, Steel penstocks 
> anT ii diversions develop 275 and 175 metres of bead at the power plants 
,evel this n • 
of about 105 MW and 66 MW respectively At the Master
>ti^Xstudy                h38 not '-’“h optimised and the capacity recommended by the pre-
1>37l per S’ 66
different. The construction cost of this project is
<W, including ] 9Q km of 230-kV of iransnussian line to the Gdgel Gibe 1Ca
*’ e coru?S recoaimended for pre-feasibiiity study, as a small power
^venn501^ int0 tlle reSional transmission line network for power ’“FP*
.
^>l»Ped th' B^-Akobo bain (Wdle^ Sor »d Bor?.) 1*
.
M
Ul ^
“»« Of 12, 18 Md 20 MW <o meat
• he project consists of a 33 metre high rockfiU dam ere*
“------------ - --------------------------------------------- - — ———
Ver B*sin Integrated DevHopcnrnt Muter Plan
Chapter 7MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT
VOLVMtni
lake with 330 mcm of storage, and three downstream diversions to canals 2 6, 2 3 and
long respectively, penstocks and power plants The conveyance systems develop ro
205 metres of head at the turbines; the power house have an installed capacity of"l2 i°
20 MW respectively As for the Geba project the capacity recommended by the pre-f’
might differ based on the results of the preliminary optimisation The Gumero project "h
ultimate capacity of 50 MW is estimated to cost USS 1, 833 per kW, including the cost f
km long 66-kV transmission line connecting the three power plants to the existing 66-kvV^
between Gambela and Gore.
Among the irrigation projects  studies, four projects  with a combined area of 123, 000 hectares 
were    singled    out    as    being    the    most    economically    attractive    One    of    them    the    512,    000
hectares  'project at Itang on the right bank  of the Baro nver stands  out as  the most economically  viable The second one the 10,300 hectares  Alwero project is  presently  under construction with its dam at Abobo nearly completed
The Itang irrigation project would consist of an 11 metre high. 5 km long earth dam a S3 ta lone main canal conveyance and irrigation and drainage works  In addmon levees  mil protect the lower portion of the area against flooding Al thts  pomt. a dtverstfied cropping panmt consisting mainly  of food crops  and cotton has  been used for sizing and for establishing the Xte“^ level project cost of USS 8.200 per hectare Sugar cane was  rise eonstdered at the economic studies and appears to be a promtsmg prospect.
Cb>Ptcr
Development Master PlaniMmenpaT1ONS for furthfr stu1>ies an» invlstigattons
Subject
Mfeer
'
The present Integrated Master Plan Study provides a
basis for encouraging the implementation of a development programme in the hydropower and irrigation sectors Before am decisions can be finalised, it is imperative to cany out more
detailed topographic surveys, proper site investigations and thorough reconnaissance studies to confirm the programme of
this Master Plan
The water resources of individual rivers should be studied tn '
detail as part of the feasibility studies for the initial hydrapower projects on the Baro River Basin where the major development projects are recommended On a fast track schedule, the bulk of
this study should be completed at the latest in 1998, to enable the irrigation and hydropower projects to commence in that year For that this Study has to be launched in 1997.
The data available io this Master Plan were very mixed in terms 
of adequacy and compliance with internationally accepted standards The Master Plan provides the initial screening of the potential projects in the Baro-Akobo Basin Thereafter, a
decision will be required about projects most likely to enter into eventual feasibility planning. Yet many of the data are unsuitable
for that level of study In Particular in the Akobo River Basin no hydrological data are available.
The projects suitable for feasibility level invesrigatkjns must be identified Initiate now detailed reconnaissance studies and surveys of vegetation, soil, and measurements of water (hydrological and climatological) in those areas. Data collection requirements ate listed in the different annexes to this Master Plan
Sediment transport data are insufficient to provide accurate
-Projection of reservoir sedimentation.
—---------------
A monitoring programme concentrated to a limited number o river sections should be implemented. The programme will consist of campaign lasting the entire rainy season with frequent sampling at the targeted locations Sampling should be accompanied by flow measurements, and should specify 
6
cover the beginning of the rainy season as well as the p "
flow.
. _________________ — '
■
The supply of technical foresters is insufficient to tequirements of an expanding and deyejogmgj^— Implement the training prograrnme quthned-ifi^^
--------------------- — -_____________________________________________ --* -
Ctwp«r8
lUver Bajjn Integrated Development Muter P *
,a
onMASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT
V0LVMlH]
——-
Forestry This development option requires 6 candidates^—"" receive education at the MSc level Four are to enter service 1 1 are to teach undergraduate forestry'
'2
5.
Subject
Forestry data are out of date Forestry units usedinUbTsturf— were delineated from LANDS AT-TM images dated 1986 8? fieldwork carried out between 1990 and 1993
Recommendation
Demarcate, delineate, inventory, and map the 11 Nationalhi~ ~'
r
Forest Areas within the project area using the development option described in Annex 2E Forestry.
•
1 6.
Subject
Soil erosion is a risk to the Master Plan area, yet national pokes-"I in factors that contribute to land misuse is weak Land tenure is a matter than has already been addressed as an issue that requires further development In addition, the technical means of
controlling soil erosion in the Master Plan area are imperfectly 
understood.
Recommendation
The Soil Conservation Project should expand its research in order" that each soil group in the Master Plan area has a set of runoff parcels operating according to international research standards One of the outputs from the study should be a soil conservation guide It should view soil conservation not solely from the view
of technical efficiency, but should consider also the impact of different practices upon farmer gross margins, rodent populations, and cultivation method
7.
Subject
Mining has considerable potential to damage ground and surface water The full impact of mining will not be known until prospecting is completed and the method of mining is decided ,
Recommendation
Conduct an environmental impact assessment of the proposed
mine before granting a concessionary licence to the company 
Part of that license should be a fee sufficiently large to cover the
repair of untoward damage resulting to the environment_____________
8.
Subject
The  absence  of  comprehensive  geologic  information  reduces  trie ability to identify priorities for mining.
Recommendation
1
Procure large-scale (1:15,000 1:20,000) colour vertical aenal
photographs with at least 60 per cent stereoscopic overlap of
minerals areas 
_____ _—'
______ -
9.
Subject
r
i
Knowledge about wildlife and wildlife habitat in the Master PU*
area is inadequate for resource planning. --------- '^'7^
Recommendation
Provide technical training to the Regional Wildlife Authority so doing, conduct studies of protected areas, including the following: (1) define the boundaries and proclaim new pro* areas, and (2) prepare management plans for new protect areas. This should include mechanisms for communitvh^. —'
TAMS-ULG Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan 91MASTER PLAN development
volume m
conservation and private initiatives. Outside of protected areas, alternatives such as civet cat farming, crocodile farming, and wildlife ranching arc possible
10.
Subject
Marketing of bee products is below its potential. Habitat loss, pesticide uses and poor product preparation affect the industry.
Recommendation
Provide assistance to honey hunters to bring them into the fold of beekeepers This requires technical improvements to their basic methodologies Similarly, assist beekeepers to improve their marketing Much of this can be achieved by organising beekeepers' co-operatives Implement future studies of beekeeping practices, the effects of pesticides, and low-
technolouv beekeeping
II.
Subject
Fisheries development in the Master Plan area is hindered by a lack of information about the resource Nonetheless, many livelihoods depend on fishing Development options that ignore fisheries risk damaging an important sector of the economy.
Recommendation
Inaugurate a system of fisheries information to collect data on catch, effort, exploitation patterns, and capture methods Implement studies to better understand the attitudes of different ethnic groups towards fish Use this information to target marketing. Improve credit availability to the fish industry Establish a fisheries enforcement agency, provide ihe legislative foundations for regulation of the industry Evaluate low-cost,
low-volume technical options for fish marketing to adjacent regions: improve the distribution and marketing infrastructure Encourage the formation of fishing and fisheries co-operatives. Improve extension services and training of fisheries personnel. Promote the sector and the transfer of technology to indigenous 
people.
12.
Subject
---------------------------------4
Failure to totally clear reservoir areas of their biodegradable matter mav adversely affect water quality
Rectf/TtmcndatrtfH
Selkhorprotnexport’s recommendation to clear vegetation from Abobo reservoir was ignored. Dissolved oxygen, temperature, methanization, and the presence of HjS in the reservoir should be monitored In the meantime, the Master Plan recommends that reservoir areas be cleaned prior to filling. The timber should be harvested and the grass and brush burnt or otherwise disposed of
13.
Subject
Many diseases of humans tsetse, yellow fever ma! ana. Onchocerciasis, Schistosomiasis detract from the economic and social worth of the lower basin Many of these will worsen as a result of irrigation: malaria will become perennial instead of seasonal, tsetse will increase in accordance with the use of animal
traction
Recommendation.
Disease could be a principal cause of project failure. All incoming
TAMS-ULG Biro-Ako bo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan
Chapter 8MASTER PLAN DEVELOPMENT
v °lume hj
settlers should be screened for hazardous diseases 
health centres with the capacity to give firm diagnoses and^ treatments of water-related diseases will need to be est hi the project vicinity. Health training and improved sanitat'
be required if the chain of transmission between man and ^
V Ct  T
is to be broken The project should assume that Schisto  '  ° could inhabit its canals, which need to be lined as a Dret^° •SM Mosquito nets should be treated with insecticide and be ft available Mosquito campaigns using DDT or other banned * insecticides should be proscribed.
• ®
■---------------------------- - ----------------------- —
14.
Subject
Livestock productivity should be improved UMncrease a^^------------------------------------ draught   power   and   to   increase   the   quantity   and   quality   of   anima! products.
Recommendation
A four point programme of livestock improvement is proposed t0 improve the health of animals by the control and eradication of tsetse fly and improved nutrition, to develop the dairy sector to improve poultry production and to develop dairy coat
production.
TAMS-U1.G B.roAkobo River Buin ln,egr,ttd Development-)MerrerP^r,
Cbaplff8
93KESERYM)

Summery

Baro-Akobo River Basin Master Plan Summary

Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan Summary

1. Introduction

The Baro-Akobo River Basin Master Plan is a comprehensive development strategy for Ethiopia's southwestern region, covering 75,912 km² across four administrative regions. The plan aims to:

Develop water and land resources sustainably
Improve food security and economic conditions
Address environmental conservation
Enhance infrastructure and social services

2. Key Development Projects

Sector	Key Projects	Potential
Hydropower	Geba A, Birbir A+R, Baro A, Kashu, Sor	Up to 1,075 MW capacity
Irrigation	Baro Right Bank, Alvero, Gilo Right Bank	123,300 ha net irrigable area
Agriculture	Rainfed improvement, coffee development	1.4 million ha cultivated by 2035
Infrastructure	Roads, water supply, transmission lines	5,000 km roads, $201M water projects

3. Development Scenarios

The plan presents six development scenarios combining different levels of hydropower and irrigation development. The recommended approach combines:

Scenario I (Base Development): $2.54 billion for agriculture, infrastructure, and environmental protection
Scenario V (Recommended): $2.71 billion for large hydropower and commercial irrigation

Total recommended investment: $5.25 billion over 40 years.

4. Water Resources

The basin has abundant water resources with mean annual runoff of 23,237 million m³. Key river systems include:

Baro River (30,004 km² catchment)
Alwero River (8,019 km² catchment)
Gilo River (12,815 km² catchment)

5. Implementation Strategy

The plan recommends a two-phase institutional approach:

Phase 1 (5 years): Basin Co-ordinating Unit for planning and studies
Phase 2: Basin Water Management Authority for construction and operation

Key challenges include land tenure issues, community participation, and environmental protection.

6. Recommendations

Priority follow-up actions include:

Feasibility studies for Geba and Gumero hydropower projects
Detailed reconnaissance surveys for irrigation projects
Enhanced data collection (hydrology, sedimentation, forestry)
Environmental impact assessments for mining projects
Disease control programs for irrigation areas