IMPERIAL ETHIOPIAN GOVE-RtNMENT
AWASH VALLEY ALHHORriY
z\DD!S ABABzX
MELKA SAD1-AMIBARA PROPOSED
,R RIGAT1ON PROJECT
INCEPTION
REPORT’
A V/l
ITALCONSULT Rome Dcccmbct 1968/W V&
iT                IMPERIAL ETHIOPIAN GOVERNMENT
MEI.KA SADI-AM1BARA PROPOSED
IRRIGATION PROJECT
INCEPTION REPORT
ITALTOSxI||
Rome. DrccmhtT 196sCONTENTS
1.      PRESENCE AND ACTIVITIES OF THE EXPERTS II.     INVESTIGATIONS AND ELABORATIONS
1.           engineering
1.)       hydrology
1.2       CLIMATE 
7
7
11
1,2. 1 Availability of Data
II
1.2.2      Notes on Climate and
Ecology 
12
1.3        PEDOLOGY
14
1.4        GEOLOGY AND HYDROGE
OLOGY
15
1.5       TOPOGRAPHY
17
2.     IRRIGATION ENGINEERING
19
2. 1 IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE 
NETWORK
19
2.1.1 Irrigation Networks
19
2.1.2 Irrigation Unit
20
2.1.3 Drainage Network
23
2.2        ROAD SYSTEM
23
2. 3       HYDROPOWER
24
2. 4       FLOOD PROTECTION
24
2. 5       GROUNDWATER AND WA
TER SUPPLY
26
2.6        IRRIGATION PARAMETER
S
27
2-6. 1 Monthly Consumptive Use 2.6.2 Effective Rainfall
k- 3 Field Application Efficienc y 2.6.4 Irrigation Water Requirements 2,6.5 Water Application Calendars 2.6.6 Peak and Seasonal Volumes 2.6. 7 Daily Time of Irrigation
27
30
31
31
34
34 373. AGRICULTURE A ■ I
3.1 ECOLOGICALLY POSSIBLE CROPS
3            z CONDITIONS OF PRODUCTION AND
SELECTED ANTICIPATED YIELDS
3.           3            CULTIVATION COSTS
3.4       CHOICE OF CROPS: SHORT-CUT METHOD
3.5      MARKETING ASPECTS
3.6       ALTERNATIVE CROPPING PATTERNS
./ 3.7             STOCK-BREEDING
3.7-1         General         Prospects         lor         Stock-breeding in the Project Area
3,7.2      Possible Types of Stock-breeding 
3.             7.   3   Analysis   of   Cattle   Raising   for   Milk and Meat Production
3.7.4 Integration with the Gledeghi Plants 3.8 PROCESSING INDUSTRIES
3. 8, 1 Cotton Ginning
3.8.2      Tobacco Drying Plants 3.8.3       Seed-oil Mills
3.8.4       Vegetable Processing 3. 8. 5 Milling of Cereais
* y3+ 8, 6 Slaughter House *3*8*7 Milk Processing
3.9 ALTERNATIVE SUPPLY 3. 10 FARM SIZES
•Ji
54
55
.57
67
67
70
77
79
79
80
81
81 83 83
84
85 86
4
- settlement
'■     I     DEMOGRAPHIC     and     SOCIAL     FEATURES 4 '- CENERAL CRITERIA
8° 92 93
104 ]07Page
5.      ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ASPECTS
5            I THE PRESENT ECONOMIC SITUATION:
IMPLICATIONS ON THE COST OF INPUTS
AND PRICE OF OUTPUTS
5. 2 FINANCIAL ASPECTS
5.3 manpower AVAILABILITY and require
ments
11 '
6.      ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT 
121
7.       WILDLIFE RESOURCES
123
III.       ASSUMPTIONS, PROBLEMS AND ALTERNATIVES
12 5
1.      GENERAL 
127
2.      WATER AVAILABILITY
129
3.      INVESTMENT COSTS
145
4.      FARM INVESTMENTS
147
4. 1       GENERAL
147
4. 2       LAND RECLAMATION WORKS
147
4. 3       BUSH AND TREE CLEARING
148
4. 4       STONE CLEARING
149
4. 5       GRUBBING
149
4. 6       LAND-LEVELLING
150
4. 7       FIELD TRACKS
151
4. 8       CONCLUSIONS
151
4. 9
land settlement WORKS
152
4. 10
INVESTMENTS FOR AGRICULTURAL 
development
153r
5  AGRONOMIC AND AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIC
CONDITIONS
15;
6       CROP BASED INVESTMENTS AND OVERHEADS 7.      COMPENSATION COSTS
J£ .
8.      SETTLEMENT
IV.  PRIORITY OF CROPPING PATTERNS AND RATES OF
RETURN
1
1. GENERAL
171
2.         PRIORITY OF CROPPING PATTERNS: RATES
OF RETURN
17
V.       QUESTION FOR DISCUSSION
13
11;
1.     GENERAL
2.     ALLOCATION OF LAND IN THE PROJECT AREA VI.     PROGRAM OF FUTURE ACTIVITY
1
fi’
1. ENGINEERING
lU
1.1     HYDROLOGY
191
191
1.2      TOPOGRAPHY
1- 3 GEOLOGY AND HYDROGEOLOGY
1 ■ -
,
1.4 PEDOLOGY
192
• IRRIGATION ENGINEERING
2 - l IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE NETWORK
I?’
2-2  HYDROELECTRIC power3.      agriculture and livestock
3,           i agriculture
3.2 LIVESTOCK
4.      WILDLIFE
5.      SOCIAL INVESTIGATIONS
6.  economic and financial aspects
7.      organization and management
Png*
193
193
194 194 19?
195
196
ANNEXES
Annex A            MARKET ANALYSES
Annex  B
LIVESTOCK DATA
Annex
Annex
C         CULTIVATION COSTS
D         BENEFITS AND COSTS
TABLES
1   - CONTACTS AND SITE INSPECTIONS MADE BY EXPERTS
2    - MONTHLY CONSUMPTIVE USE
3   - THEORETICAL AND ADJUSTED MONTHLY IRRIGATION WATER requirements
4    - PEAK IRRIGATION WATER REQUIREMENTS■
. ECOLOGICALLY POSSIBLE CROPS: BREAKDOWN BY PRESENT 
KNOWLEDGE OF TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY AND MARKET 
DEMAND
6    - CONDITIONS OF PRODUCTION AND ANTICIPATED YIELDS
FOR INDUSTRIAL FARMS - IstPERlOD
7    - HOURLY COST OF MACHINES AND IMPLEMENTS
8    - PRICES PAID BY FARMERS FOR AGRICULTURAL MATERIALS
9   - CULTIVATION COSTS: OPERATIONS BASED ON ALTERNATIVE
MECHANICAL OR MANUAL TECHNIQUES
10    - TIME DEVELOPMENT OF CULTIVATION COSTS PER ha
11    - SELECTED CROPPING PATTERNS FOR COMMERCIAL FARMS
12    - CROPPING PATTERNS PER SETTLERS
13    - TREND IN LABOR COSTS
14    - PERSONNEL REQUIREMENTS IN THE SETTLEMENT AREA
15    - SPECIFIC WATER REQUIREMENTS
16    - AREAS RECL/ I MED OR TO BE RE CLAIMED
17    - TOTAL WATER REQUIREMENTS ACCORDING TO SURFACES
ALREADY RECLAIMED OR UNDER RECLAMATION
18    - TOTAL WATER REQUIREMENTS ACCORDING TO SURFACES
ASSUMED IN THE 3rd 5-YEAR PLAN
19    - TOTAL WATER REQUIREMENTS ACCORDING TO SURFACES
ASSUMED     IN     THE     3rd     FIVE-YEAR     PLAN     MELKA     SADI-AMIBARA INCREASED TO 20, 000 ha
2    0    -    UPPER    AND    MIDDLE    VALLEY    -    WATER    SHORTAGES    FOR SURFACES ALREADY RECLAIMED FOR UNDER RECLAMATION
21    - UPPER AND MIDDLE VALLEY - WATER SHORTAGES FOR SURFACES ASSUMED IN THE 3rd FIVE-YEAR PLAN '21
23
24
UPPER AND MIDDLE VALLEY - WATER SHORTAGES FOR SURFACES ASSUMED IN THE 3rd FIVE-YEAR PLAN MELKA SADI-AMIBARA INCREASED TO 20, 000 ha
WHOLE VALLEY - WATER SHORTAGES FOR SURFACES ALREADY RECLAIMED OR UNDER RECLAMATION
WHOLE VALLEY - WATER SHORTAGES FOR SURFACES ASSUMED IN THE 3rd FIVE-YEAR PLAN
25    -      WHOLE      VALLEY      -      WATER      SHORTAGES      FOR      SURFACES ASSUMED     IN     THE     3rd     FIVE-YEAR     PLAN     -     MELKA     SADJ- AMIBARA INCREASED TO 2 0, 000 ha
26    -      YIELDS AND UNIT PRICES: INDUSTRIAL FARMS DEVELOPMENT
27     -      TOBACCO: INVESTMENT GOST FOR DRYING PLANTS AND STORES
28     -      OVERHEAD EXPENDITURES: INDUSTRIAL FARMS
29    -      ORGANIZATIONAL SET-UP OF A VA IN THE PROJECT AREA
30   -      ANNUAL OVERHEAD EXPENDITURES BY AVA
31    -
INVESTMENT COSTS, AVA ORGANIZATION
32    -      YIELDS AND UNIT PRICES: SETTLEMENT CONDITIONS 33    -      CONCESSIONS GRANTED AND UNDER DISCUSSION
1 -
2 -
3 -
FIGURES
SUBSOIL INVESTIGATIONS
TOPOGRAPHY
IRRIGATION        WATER        REQUIREMENTS        FOR        CROPPING        PATTERNS "A" AND "B”4  * IRRIGATION WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR CROPPING PATtEr,.;
»Ai" AND ”Bi"
5   - IRRIGATION WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR CROPPING PATTER^ "C"
6   - IRRIGATION WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR SETTLERS
7   - IRRIGATION CALENDAR - WINTER CROPS
8   - IRRIGATION CALENDAR - SUMMER CROPS
9   - IRRIGATION CALENDAR - MULTIANNUAL CROPS
10   - DALLY HOURS OF IRRIGATION FOR THE CROPPING PATTERNS "A’1 and "B"
11   - DAILY HOURS OF IRRIGATION FOR THE CROPPING PATTERNS "Ai" AND "Bi"
12   - SCHEME OF IRRIGATION UNIT (ha 50) - 1 at SOLUTION
13    - SCHEME OF IRRIGATION UNIT (ha 50) - 2nd SOLUTIONpresence and
activities of the experts- 3 -
It  will be recalled thee the contract ... to ran from September 1 
‘ Xld work ... to b= tn alter a month', preparation m Italy, that ... 
1,68;
B
October 1          196B. Due to late rains,; and in agreement with the members
of the Steering Committee, field work was postponed until October 15,
I960.
With respect to the program of activity specified in the contract, the
times were generally anticipated. This was in order to acquire sufficient
information forming a general, but complete, outline of the study.
In    this    way,    it    is    hoped    to    offer    a    wider    basis    for    discussion    to    the    Steer- ing Committee.
The field organization of the Mission has proceeded smoothly with two exceptions. The first relates to the construction of barracks in the
project area, which was marred by difficulties with local contractors* The se detail relates td the provision of vehicles “oh’the part of AVA (which chose to provide directly the vehicles, instead of including this item in 
the lump sum payment for local currency expenditures), which required considerable time and energy on the part of both the Consultant's Per sonnel and AVA for straightening out the administrative procedures in volved.
List of experts present in Ethiopia:
Expert
Qualification
Prtitua
1^4- TimtMiTrlnii PrnL Lscn
ProL BiBi
• Dr. Fk
Ing. M craton
Prat, MMicini
Dr. 5*Uxat
Dr, B*lh»
Dr. Mini
1"<- Zueca
Dr. Corti
Dr. Dagan
Dr. M mu act
Dr. NasUrUu
Dr. FalchEBti
Dr. L—
Dr..           fell tji.no Dr. D*l Swtta
Sil. St«ru4ni
Ptojart Maaagar
Senior Ecuntnidilt
Saaicr Agroacmlat
Snlar lrriga-iaan foij.
S«nl*F Social a (|«t .
Settlor GaolopLiat
Senior P«do)o i.t
c
AjrlculhiTikl Eionomlil
Soclalnfiet
|                     Exp art
Irri(B±tan EnginsaF
Liv«i1ock Eirp&rt
A|tdkamirt
Gvoleftat
■ticl an
Sail Sutvotqt
Soil Surveyor
Spkl Sirvtyor
Sail Surveyor
AdmInlatT*t:i   Officar
v<
B. 10/14. 11
20. 11/ 4. 12
B. ID/11. 11
16. H/lO. |]
16. 10/iJ. 11
&. 11/11 11
1. U/29. 11
1. 11/ 6. 11
IMl/M. 11
21. ID/10. I |
U. 11/29. Il
13. 10/10, 11
28. 10/Z4, 11
1. 11/29. II
11. 10/ 1, II
20. lQ/15, 1|
20.  | l/jo, | |
21.  lOto prattihi 21. lOtc prftaent
6.  11  to  present 21. IO id gpraaenit 19, 9taprc,iea>lCOXTACTS AND STL INSFErTjDNJJ M ADE HT EXPERT!
-1
fianinr
Staler
Agronomist □•♦legist
trri«an«a
EAgtaaaf
Agrlcvltu-
r*l Kroan»-
mlH
Engiaaar
OFTXCES
AYA
TAO - agrirwlktra] m
- catastiwa •ep«»»
- Uaaatarb *»>•»•
- ungattofl «|f*a*ll1
- fotagat **4 >««««'•
• ••alolsgltt
lAddaUv fcT Agrlntii'ara HtaaatTf Hl UfiUiW
Mmlatrv »f r.lie-nail r Dnii>
•belli A-'ULra
birUtaie n< AgalealtluM IhmhI
TmImc<*
Natural Invanu <K Co, KU.haJ) C«*4
ITU)
I HVA UviofHa
X
X
al
XX
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
raimlag
. ganarll
— agilxallaaa - trn.a^.«tx|| -a
H.tlnaal luUuf FUUnpU
Bsai« <£« «ana - FUt^i Cmsaai 5tatiMUa| 1110’•
| ChAmVc >1 CwmMarra
Ur Alaa C*«geraUna LlreMrck ax- Uul B**a>L
1 -JtCAI ET
A                Gia taikarnrr
A                  1 ratUa iMaatry A* CM Mill
1 TU CotOl AWSalrMAAha AtoM A MiLk f»rara«alt>g Plaal Frw»«h Fttavpta* »ai;«ay r<.
X
X
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X
X
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X
X
X
i EaMwjAaa
| F»A4.lp|a. AUlfcsae
Al.tall a
CtvC Aatatia*
IMPllCJT
Shea V«4*«taary Office
Lira*
<
Hail* Salaaait 1 tfMawraltv
Saxlogl. al Sarrica
Mapping MlaaUn
EELPA
1 ImpwUl HU-p|aa HkgVaraa
TAiun
Malka tfaraa UhmkV 5Larlaw (1**1 M alba - ia* AaalVara a , aa Agvsmlluael Farm Aarara Malka A<»UmI»M«*1 ran* Nara In AgrlaMwral rarw» Akatir r»m. sri AaH*a.lVi«a4 Fatal Maaahara I1VA| Aivlodtaia) Farm Wafi (KVA)
VMt',a-r-aait Srka».a al Am ikara
X
X
X
X
X
X
*
X
X
X
3
X
K
X
X
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air Aaraanaiaaaai a ar tka A *aah '»aUrp Olaaaa Far. taanoi
| Allate^rt nal-a
| j*sM.<a~-Maaai Faant • A4«a Atoka Avaah NMiraal Path
X
X
X             i_____ !II. INVESTIGATIONS AND ELABORATIONS- 7 -
L ENGINEERING
1.1, HYDROLOGY
The following hydrologic data have been collected to date:
, daily staff-gauge measurements for the Awash River at the
Awash Station for the 19^3-62 period
-    average daily discharges of the Awash at the Awash Station 
for the November 1 962 - July 1968 period
-    ave rage daily discha rges of the Knsem River at Awara Mclka
for the November 1 963 - October 1 967 period
average     daily     discharges     of     the     Kcbena     River     tor     the     January 1963 - October 196? period
average    daily    discharges    of    th»*    Awash    River    at    Dubti    for    the November 196*1 - October 1967 period
-    average monthly discharges of the Awash River at Dubti for
the January 1?63 - October 1 967 period
* daily volumes passing through the turbines at the Koka Gene
rating Station for the September 1 961 - July 1968 period 
(figures missing for October and November 1963 and l'or
January, February. March, April, June. July and part of
August 1964).
The maximum staff-gauge Levels reached during floods have
been collected for:
the    Awash    at    Awash    Station,    for    the    November    1962    -    October 1968 period
the    KvSem    at    Awora    Melka    for    the    November    1963    -    October 1965 and November 1967 - October 1968 periods
the Kebena for the January 196) - August 1 968 period
Data on sediment load have been collected for:
-    the Awash at Awash Station for the April 1 963 - February 1 968 
pe riod
the   Kesem   at   Awora.   Mclka   for   the   May   t   963   -   August   I   ^67 period
-    the Kebena for the May 1963 - April 1 967 period.-8-
Data on the volumes passing through the turbines each hour st
the Koka Generating Station and the staff-gauge levels on the Awash at Wonji, Mctehara, Awash Station rind Hertale have
been collected for two fortnightly periods.
From averagedaily discharges passing through the turbines al Koka and the average daily discharges of the Awash at Awash Station and of the Kesem and Kebena Rivers the weekly,nxxlhlyffr annual average discharges were calculated.
* i re n° ig rcs for the average daily discharges in the
u
o                  Melka Werer gorge downstream from the confluence the Kcsem and Kebena, which can be used to water the Ami-
fore th^wJJkj'v 
Bolhamo and Angelele areas. There-
Eoree hi Y’ othly and a»nual average discharges al the
X^^:dC 1C ted hy SUInm
:
t              ^ *e Lng 
Kesem at Awora Xf ]/ ° ^
0           WHSh at Ille Awash Station, for the
U- —
the Awash Station a "** J*wasb basin in the stretch between 
ributi
°J aX . "h fD/ thP K0bl’”a- — tkal
n
Arba River -hi" the lower reaches
(-peciaily that from the o £ th k the r,ght bank). and that from
considered. However \ L -'-m and Kebena rivers are nol the low-water periods *’ rilin,an - especially that during 
‘he b
as ns, the „ror w-’ i
Iess tban in the remainder of
ncgiigible. Examination of th ’ntr°duced can be considered ab rough the Koka turbines sh't wdnnual discharges passing 
max-' 'he timC tHe SUti°n came th‘‘S‘’ Squally increased 
the f
38 CU’ m/*pc. in
this trW °f ,%fi to aro^d 25 °nly f° dr
°P  ^ing 1 967 and
d
on the Awash“** f*C‘ pian grid. Between 7? fV
load
 r .
f qui
until M reached •
h e7'PO1"'
V roPIantl! b«iIr
H operation and £
^Uy increased aB th(. calJ ^’»ed thrOUgh
come on-stream in Jp66
passed through Awash I. Thug “ USed the wat^ considerably, in the coming yt
h '^nt was
et  ^r .
bjIles 8ra(p ( aSed ,
"
tUrbiae di5r, hlch had already
btned each year by the two insup” ** aVer»g  di^ *"e CUt
e
as the call for electricity rises. How? SUrt ‘o nund that Awash JJI - which is a re
course of completion downstr.-m, 
mu,t h/'°w °* A**8h fl . Orn,> ln
.
• • Wftsl, r
r
15 In-9-
Since the Koka reservoir was built (i, e. for all the period 
for which observations are available), most of the flows al
Awash Station and at Melka Werer during the two dry Seasons typical of the Area consist of waters which have been through the turbines at Awash I and Awash II. Hence, a simple exa mination of the discharges measured (at Awash Station) or calculated (at Melka Werer) would lead to erroneous conclu sions inasmuch as a set of values linked solely to the operation of the power stations (which are not yet working to capacity)
arc superimposed on a set of values linked solely to rainfall (coming from part of the Awash basin and its tributaries lying downstream of the Koka dam).
In order to examine what influence the operation of Awash I
and II has had on the regime at Melka Werer. the weekly* monthly and yearly average discharges al Melka Wercr have been recalculated in two idealized yearly series. In one of these the average annual discharge turbined is taken to be some
25 cu.ru/sec. and on the other 37 cu. m, sec. Put another way, we have subtracted from the average weekly, monthly and 
yearly discharges calculated for the Melka Wercr Section the corresponding average discharges turbined at Koka and then added the corresponding discharges turbined in I 967 in the one case (ave rage annual about 25 cu.m/sec.) and in 1965 in the other (average annual around 37 cu. m/sec).
The maximum instantaneous values of the flood discharges in the Awash at Awash Station, in the Kesem at Aw ora Melka and in the Kebena have been derived from the maximum staff-gauge levels (through the staff-gauge level discharge relationships given in the FAO Report). At the moment it is not possible
to supply .my definite value since the figures for the flood 
levels at Kescm over the October 1965 - November 1967 period are not yet available. However, it may be stated that, in general, the floods in the Kescm and the Kebena are contemporaneous (in the short period for which obst* rvations* are available, the figures reached several hundred cu. m/sec) hence the values indicated in the FAO Report will probably have to be increased.
Certain interesting conclusions and observations as to the
effect of routing both maximum and minimum discharges (a routing effect which obviously increases the farther one goes from Koka) have stemmed from an examination of the discharges turbined hourly at Koka and of those flowing in the Awash atr
Wonji. Awash Station and Hertale. Even at this point it sceillu clear that at Awash Station the discharge variations in any given day can still be felt, even though their size is less, while the weekly minima are still considerable because the power installations arc operating well below capacity on non working davs»
Although even now the hydrologic investigations and calcu lations provide some useful pointers a's to the concept and design of the reclamation works, further work will be needed during the coming months. In detail, collection of the average daily discharges of the Awash at Awash Station and at Dubti of the Kesrm at Awora Melka and of the Krbena to the end 
of December 1 968 must be completed- The* average daily discharges passing through the Awash T! turbines from July to December ] 968 must be obtained from EELPA •md those for the missing months in J 96.5 and 1964 must be located or reconstructed . The flood figures for the KeSeni for the November 1965 - October 1 967 period must also be found.
V.hen data collation is complete. the figures must be careiully reviewed. Then the calculation of the average weekly, monthly and yearly discharges of the Awash at Awash Station, Mclka
(  r< r and at Dubti, of the Kesem at Awora Melka, and 
\ the Krbena must be completed. Flood frequencies must also b . computed so as to ascertain - on the basis of the avaJ-
t
a e data - the regime of the Awash in the stretch affected by the reclamation scheme.
The question of drainage of the areas around the Study Area will also be examined in the coming months.1 1
l.Z CLIMATE
1,2.1 Availability uf Data
Available data on climate cover only the last three years (1965- 1967b i.c< from the time AV A setup meteorological stations in the Awash catchment. The only exception in this respect is the station at Awash itself (1,060 m a. s. 1. ) with data available since 1953. Comparing the figures from this station with those from
Melka Wercr (within the project area] it is possible to "normalize" the data collected at the latter between 1965-1967.
The       following       stations       were       considered, and lower valley of the Awash:
They all       lie in the middle
Station Awash Station
Altitude (m a. s. 1. )
1,060
Period
Souree
Metah ar a 950
Awor a Melka 805
Melka Werer 750
1953-1967          Eth. Civil Aviation 1965-1967          AVA
1963-1964          AV A
1965-1967          Agr. Research Station
Gewane                                                     600                1966
AVA
Dubti                                                          370
1965-1967          AVA
The actual figures will cover:
all be included           in the Final          Report. They
Daily temperatures (in °C) at 0600. 1200 and 1800 hrs (and in some instances, absolute minima and maxima) Rainfall (in mm}
Relative humidity (in %) at 0 600 and 12 00 hrs Evaporation from a free surface and from a Pich 6 evapori meter (in mm)
Solar radiation (in cal/sq. cm/day) Hcliophany
Average daily wind speed (in km/h),I
- 12 -
In addition, rainfall charts have also been obtained from the Awash station. Not all the data available form a continuous se. quence and in some cases their reliability seems open to discus- sion.
Data have also been obtained from lhe 1965 FAO ’’Survey of the Awash River Basin” and from A.Fantoli's ’’Contributi alia Climatj- logia dell’E tiopia” published by the Italian Foreign Ministry, 1966.
1.2. 2 Notes on Climate and Ecology
According to De Martonne’s climatic classification, the Study Area has a dry sub-equatorial climate with two dry seasons (win ter and early summer) and two rather rainy seasons (the small rains in March-April and the big rains in July-August).
The average monthly temperature range is small: from 21.2 °C in December to 29. 4 °C in June  as is shown in the following 
f
sche me.
Ecologically, the area is savannah country with sparse scrub and xerophytic trees fairly widespread. The KUppen ratio (rainfall in cm to average annual temperature in oc) is about 2.
rhe downfalls are generally short but sharp, especially during l ong rams (tor monthly values see the following scheme). 
' C| th‘‘re are hl
K  Evaporation losses from the land 
h
surface and mfiltration is
also grcat
f
*rom urif ye^r lo the Tipset
A
h       P                hy
rom ;ne viar7°l
“ th°
r
variability of the
can be Uirly long ramy 
Th ' d,y
(Jul’y-Scptcmbpr)'^,” "°rmidlV considered »» •
PUC... the proeJa Z.^„S
.
There are some 80 rainy dav«
on  only  half of them.  The pL^bilUy  of'  rAinfaI1 e*cecda 5 ® ’
during the same day with rainfall * lost. 
ln/ail exceedlng th
1 attenainK tc crops
lK lcveli is usUi
dly- 13
Average relative humidity at rmon is about 50% >
Winds arc not excessive but no data are availaKte on gusting.
hottest months (June-July) and wind - Winds occur mostly in the i---------------------------
breaks may be required for trfce crops, if these are grown.
A ,.„„ Monthly VU<... for
X
X
24
A_
J_
X
A_
_S_
O
_N
_D
ptm (1)
lil
23.5
21 + 2
25+ ?
T*nip. (°C)
22. 5
23.6
24.7
26,0
27.1
29.4
23.0
25.9
25.9
24. 7
Rainfall (mm)
2.4
SB. 5
39.9
51.7
22.4
26.0
94.9
iso.a
36.1
12.2
43.2
6.6
544. a
n.WmJdlly (In } 0600 hri
17.5
80. 5
82.5
SI. 5
73.0
64.0
72,0
Rl. 5
01.0
70. 0
79.5
76.5
1200 hr*
41.4
51.0
41.0
47. D
36.5
36. 0
50. 5
56. 0
MB. 5
14.0
41.0
42. 0
Wind (km/hl
5.6
5.9
5.0
4.4
4.6
7. 6
7.9
5.1
4. 6
6.0
5J
4. 0
5.3
(Ik The trm|>*raturti in for the 1964-1967 thrtfl -ycar period; the rainfall for Iho November I 964-0ctub*r 1967 four-ye mr p#rla»dl Bind the ■wrjr.irfiB and. T#lati.*< humidity fa-r th® 1966-1967 two-ysar period.
It should he noted that in the FAO ■tudy ifce irerigt monthly tamp«ratur« p *ra acrme 2  C higher. This miy ba bic.au.ae lh«y ar# the awerajra* far th.® daylight hoars- only. Thr fl<urea given h*r» aft for the average ®f th# dally nnlnlrn* and maxlmi.
fl
According to the Thornthwaite method of classification, from the irrigation point of view, the Melka Wcrcr climate is dry, having a water index of -62.47 (dry climates start with an index of -40) + Indeed, in 11 months of the year the potential evapotranspiration exceeds the relative rainfall, as can be seen from the following balance.
w **«r PBlBtK* for C Limatlc ClaBBillcMUQB to rlfrijitlu n (foUowiag Thhrnxhwaite)
2         x         _a          M         X      X       A         S_
O          N      JD     Year
Rainfall (mm)
2       ■ 59          10          52          22           26          95        151           36           12          43            7          515
Pal,   Cwipor   ration   (mm|        75
W#t#r deficit (mm)
WHiT lurpLue (mm}
n
Thi s balanc e
3 3 /o J"
supplies the
iW 1ZZ 107 R6
(2P
io -
73 _ Ajj <tZ 0ZjT
61      1. <31
*3          56
’/-? 
three Thornthwaite climatic indie
Ar
es:
906
20
a)      Moisture balance = ^urPIus x 100 
_        .
1, 431 mm                  T X"
b)
Dryness index =
x  IDO 1> 431 mm
-63. 31
Overall      water      index      =      Moisture      index      -06 = - 62, 47
(dryness indcx)=- 14 -
lj PEDOLOGY
The soil survey follows the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation procedures
Before going out to Ethiopia the soil surveyors took part in the
photointerpretation work in Italy, Their first task in the field 
was to make a general reconnaissance of the area to identify the
basic soil units, an initial series of pits being sunk. Immediately 
afterwards the systematic survey was started. It is expected 
that some 1, 600 pits will be sunk in all, of which over 400 have
already been completed,
A    field    laboratory    has    now    been    set    up    and    has    been    fully    operative for some days.
The    area    to    be    surveyed    may    be    subdivided    in    three    main    geo 
morphological units:
a)
recent alluvial plains /
b)
old fluviatile terraces, mainly gravelly
c)
volcanic rock outcrops, generally basalts.
tativr^LndT °f lntere9t is of course the alluvial plains. A ten
area. Seven units certainly need tn h 
r ^ady been defined but this number will
Up f°r ** detailed 8oil maP of thiS
V »■>.« to be increased and the definition, improved.
All the soils on verv recent are deep or verv dl. 
The clayey so
il  shoxf
s
absent. Drainaoe is . , 
' recent and medium alluvial sediments Var*eS frorn sandy loam to clay,
° rharacters> Stoniness is generally
Poor     in     the     depression^     n°rmal       Or       slow-     although     it     may     be     very 
now some areas with 
er< , flalirLity phenomena occur. Up to
Unity have been m pp   VuT" hmitatioris due “> salinity and alka-
a      ed
minor phenomena of thi« t 1 18 DOt yet po8sible to indicate where
lor some crops could be th"- °CCur- Another minor limitation 
tmn that can be observed in ti? in the Melka Sadi plajn.
*n the lower
horizons of many pro/ jcfl
^ lcium ^rbonate accumula-
.
When the first analytical results on the soils already sampled are available and the survey in the'field more advanced it will be pos sible to give a better picture not only of the soils but also of the
land classification for irrigation purposes of the entire Melka Sadi Amibara‘Area.- 15 -
geology and hydrogeology
In addition to the results of the geological investigations set forth in the 1964 FAO Report, logs are now available for 14 borings and 12 pits put dov.'n in 1967 by the Rodio Go. on behalf of AV A at the points suggested in the FAO Report as sites for the two diversion weirs (sec Fig. 1).
Italccnsult geologists have also reconnoitered the two Areas in general and the weir sites.
On the basis of the geological information acquired, the draft of
the contract AVA drew up for further exploratory geological and soils mechanics work was revised and modified. The criteria followed when revising this draft are discussed in what follows.
Concerning groundwater investigations, taking account of the
fact that all the irrigation water should come from the Awash River and that any groundwaters tapped in the Irrigation Areas would be limited to domestic and perhaps industrial use, it has beer, decided Chat the fourteen piezometers (four down to some 50 m and the remainder to about 15 m) will be sufficient to give
an idea of the general subsurface stratigraphy and of the hydraulic characteristics of the ground. Should an exploitable aquifer be encountered, the sinking of an exploitation well and the running 
of discharge tests will provide a better idea as to the features
of the aquifer itself and of the wells which will be required to tap it.
It is also felt that the same borings should provide sufficient in formation to outline the position of any water table which might call for specific drainage works (see para 2, 1. 3).
With regard to the soils mechanics investigations to be carried 
out along the alignments of canals and dykes, it is thought that
a hundred or so 3-5-meter test pits should provide a reasonable picture of conditions, which in any case should not be very dif ferent from those on the surface. The tests to be run on the samples taken (an average of two per pit) will make it possible
to identify the mechanical features of the ground and, consequently.?
- 16 -
to correctly design the earthworks (canals, drains, and dyke )
a
To gain a sufficiently realistic picture of percolation losses a number of in-situ infiltration tests will be run. There iS rea o
S
r
to fear that swelling clays are present in some parts of the two areas and so allowance has been made for running swelling tests on completion of the consolidation tests, so as (o ascertain the behavior of these clays in the presence of water and to provide design pointers.
On the question of geological investigations on the intake struc ture^ fdtes, it has been decided that the location of all borings should not be fixed from the very beginning. This course has
been taken because while present knowledge of the geological situation may have permitted identification of two stretches of river where weir construction is feasible,it is not thorough 
enough to indicate exactly where those structures should be
built: this picture will gradually be clarified as the results of
the first bores become known.
The approach is therefore as follows: the sites of a certain num ber of holes will be fixed right from the start: if the results from these are promising other holes will be sunk across the section 
in question, otherwise the rigs will be moved to other possible sections.
The Italconsult geologist supervising the execution of the investigations will at the same time carry out the survey and draA* up the surface geology map of the two selected zones.
!• in ally, with reference to construction materials. although re- chmaiion work in the two areas presents no particular construe' lional problems, it has been thought advisable to sink a number
of test pits, sample a series of possible aggregate materials arsfi
run concrete testg, particularly with a view to ascertaining the location and cost of construction materials.
Oil the question of geological investigations at the intake structure sites, the investigations have been limited to the two stretches o* the Awash River already indicated in the FAO Report. In fact for
'ne Melka Sadi area studies carried out by Sepitalia had located another site. This site has been excluded, in this study, both be cause it show's abutemeuls which are b ** stable than the FAO situ and because it requires substantial embankment works, as it is located where the river bed overhangs the surrounding territory, Ibis site shall be considered again, only in the rather unlikely case
that current subsoil investigations yielded unexpected results.9*00
Idedda
Asboi
AWASH RIVER MIDDLE VALLEY SUBSOIL INVESTIGATIONS
LEGEND
M      DOFAN
Me IT?
Waror
ara
derguru
SCALE 1:250,000
Cartumi
Caailu Barantu
Enghegl
Matacoma
Madderala - data
HARA
N 24254
X
Arconcia
Nchidahara
hegalu
9*00
40*30'
40*00’- 17 -
1.5 topography
The following maps and surveys are available (sec Fig, 2):
11,ODD,000 operational navigational chart, in color, publish ed by the USAF Aeronautical Chart aac Information Center. 
[ :500, 000 four-colour map published by the British War
Office in I 94 6,
1:50,000 black and white map. surveyed and plotted for AVA by the Barigazz.i-Ferretti Ac rophotog rammi't ry Go. ( one sheet) 1:20,000 black and white map, surveyed and plotted tor AVA by the Barigazzi-Ferretti Aerophotogrammetry Co. (Melka Sadi, Amibara, Bolhamo, and Angeielc sheets),
1:5, 000 black and white map fas above) (53 sheets covering the Melka Sadi, Amibara, Bolhamo and Angclele areas),
cross sections of low-water bed of Awash River in the stretch between the Melka Sadi intake and the northern houn- cary of the Amibara Area, as well a  the terminal reaches of
5
the Kesem and Kebena Rivers, AVA did the survey of these
cross sections.
a set of airphotos used for plotting the 1:5, 000 maps mention • 
cd above,
During  the field  surveys the experts also  had  available an  uncon trolled  photomosaic (scale c.  1:40,000) prepared  by  Hunting  Sur veys Ltd.
With regard to the detailed topography (1:50, 000, 
1:5,000), it is felt that the available maps will be amply sufficient lor the preliminary investigations and for the design of works within the Reclamation Area. However, for the study of the drain age of waters coming in from outside it would be as well to have a
1 1 00, 000 map with 10-meter contours for the rectangle lying between 9°00' and 9°40' and 40°00' and 40°30'. The 1:50, 000 air photos could be used for plotting this map, if they are available. Ground control could be provided by a series ol points connected by barometric leveling and aerial triangulation. In view of the scale, the contour interval and the limited amount of field work required the map could be available within two months of the airphotos being consigned (in ample time for use in the studies). In order to correctly assess the amount of earthworks involved 
in lane levelling it will be necessary to run ground surveys in a number of sample areas for a total of a hundred or so hectares.
1 20, 000 andKRRKRSnk
I
AWASH RIVER MIDDLE VALLEY
TOPOGRAPHY
M COPAN
LEGEND
ROADS PRINCIPAL
ROADS OTHER
ZONE TO BE
AT r 100.000 SCALE
MAPPED
SWAMPS PERMANENT
'Bara
CLIFFS AMO ESCARPMENTS
mESSHBRk
Enghtghi
—-Igcahili
Matacpma
Badummu
Maddcrala - dala
Q
HARA
Nchidahafa- 19 -
2. IRRIGATION ENGINEERING
IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE NETWORK
2. 1. I Irrigation Networks
The study of the irrigation network must start from the findings
of the hydrologic studies on the one hand and of the pedological and agricultural studies on the other. During the brie! time
since the studies started it has gradually become possible to broadly outline some solutions for the agronomic and hydrologic aspects of the project, while in the case of the irrigation net
works it has been possible to pinpoint certain problems which must be resolved and alternatives to be studied.
As far as concerns the conveyance and distribution networks, experience gained in the irrigation districts in the upper and 
middle reaches of the Awash especially in the Wonji and Me lahar a areas (which are nearest in size to the Melka Sadi-Ami ba ra area) together with the general picture obtained by on-site reconnais sances of the area, all point to the advisability of using unlined earth canals. Although at the moment it seems unlikely, it could 
be that the soil mechanic investigations along the canal align ments might reveal the need for protective linings in some limited stretches where the soils may be too permeable or lack the ne cessary mechanical features, Without doubt, protective linings will be required upstream and downstream of structures where turbulence would otherwise cause erosion which could undermine The safety of the structures themselves.
At thia stage of the study it has also been necessary to take due account of the possibility of limiting irrigation to just the hours of daylight. this factor has a decided bearing on the concept of the irrigation networks and their cost.f
- 20 -
As is described in greater detail in P^rt III, Section 2, the
■--l A                       AXoika Merer are barely suffiaeJ1.
at some periods to sauaiy mcr
— —•*
ley     irrigation     districts     even     when     tapped     24     hours     per     day.     Thus if the water is only applied during daylight hours it will be neces
sary    to    provide    something    like    1-2    million    cubic    meters    of    com pensating capacity.
Unless     a     decision     is     taken     at     the     Steering     Committee     level,     three alternatives should be studied:
- Conveyance and distribution networks designed to operate
throughout 24 hours a day
^7/             - Conveyance and distribution networks designed to operate I-l
hours per day, storage capacity being provided tin? inta*Ms and/or along the main canals
hours    per    day    with    storage    capacity    provided    between    lhe    d* takes of the main and secondary canals.
A    Btart    has    also    been    made    on    examining    the    problems    conneite with the diversion works on the Awash River.
Generally     Bpeakmg,     the    solutions     schematically     set    out     in     the
1964 FAO Report annear
t T___
_ u,.
2. J. 2- 21
area of the irrigation unit will drop to 26 ha net. While awaiting further results from the soil survey, it is assumed that a standard irrigation unit of 45 ha net would have a gross area of around
5 0 ha. /
-4^! Z
Most      of      the      crops      envisaged      are      row      crops      (cotton,      tobacco,maize, groundnuts, etc.). Two types of irrigation may be used:
submersion irrigation
- furrow irrigation
It     is     assumed     for     the     moment,     that     the     irrigation     scheme     to     be adopted will be such as to permit the use of either type.
Two       typical       irrigation       layouts       representing       the       boundaries       within which lie other possible solutions have been examined:
first provides for (sec Fig. 12);
dimensions of irrigation unit: 1. 667 x 100 m = 50 ha tertiary canal: I, 667 meters long and feeding 100-meler long field ditches spaced 8-10 meter apart. These run parallel to the crop rows for the whole width of the irri gation unit (300 m) and have a discharge of 15-20 l/sec* Each 100 meters Lhey can be interconnected by a cross ditch, thus creating an irrigation plot measuring 800-1.000 s<^. m.
Field ditches are rebuilt each year after ploughing. By break
ing the small dykes along the field ditches the water is led into 
the irrigation plots. Water also reaches the plots indirectly 
from the field ditches by infiltration.
Using the same scheme but wishing to switch to furrow irriga
tion, it is necessary to construct another two distribution canals
so that each commands a strip I 00-me ter long. The furrows arc
directly fed from each tertiary canal.
Should  it be wished  to  use syphons,  the tertiaries will have to be run  as levees.  From the economic aspect,  this variant at the present time does not appear worthwhile although  it might become so in the future should labor costs rise.- 22 -
However, this variant has been adopted for the settlement scheme since it makes the area easier to command and re duces labor requirements. Indeed, 2 peoples can handle or.e water module instead of the 3-4 required otherwise.
b) The second solution provides for (see Fig. 13).
dimensions of irrigation unit: 705 x 705 m - 50 ha.
tertiary canal: 705 meters long and feeding the quaternaries spaced 100 meters apart. The latter are permanent and 705-mcter long. Their discharge is equal to the whole module. Field ditches take off every 25 meters along the quaternaries. These are rebuilt each year. Thus the irrigation plot measures 25 x 1 00 meters = 2, 500 sq. m.
The field ditches must have a cross-section such as to permit the‘easy passage of farm machinery.
the     firstl°nS        S        °W        that        second     scheme     is     more     costly     than 
sioned Kurthc-rmo*5
y  because the quaternary canals must be dimen- 8ame discharge as the tertiaries.
-d           is           not
°comy a rpeeLa ducTetion i   ^byn t 0?^he'”6 t8ertiaries". Eve    h^"6 n        ”           ‘"T 
in comparison with the first scheme in the case the tertiaries run above ground level to permit syphon irrigation by furrows, the cost of this second solution would be slightly higher without enjoying the same advantages. On the other hand, labor require ments would be lower and irrigation efficiency higher. When 
rawing up the final report, the irrigation layout chosen will
di”.ne dirt “ tX
, V"‘°U' 
h “"« 
Jd podologiol co-
with dil-
It will be possible to assess better drainage requirements when all the hydrological and soils data are in hand However, at the moment, no field drainage ditches are envisaged only tertiary drains, as in the case with other farms in the Awash valley.- 23 -
2.1.3 Drainage Network
The same remarks made in the case of the irrigation networks
are applicable in the case of the drainage networks too.
The system must collect and convey to the river the runoff which arrives from outside and that which derives from whithin the Area. It must also remove the excess irrigation water which may result from the wrong operation of the irrigation network. Depending on the findings of the agronomic and soils surveys, the drainage network may also have to keep the water table down to a certain level and remove leaching waters.
There should be no particular difficulty in the study of the drains for removal of the run-off from outside the Area, .apart from as sessing the size and conformation of the catchments. The
1: 1 00  000 map already spoken of is required for this purpose. 
t
If, for technical or budgetary reasons, it is not possible to 
obtain such a map, the study can be executed from photomosaics although accuracy would than be much lower.
As far as concerns the removal of excess rainfall and excess irrigation waters within the Area, the study is easier not least because of the experience - albeit qualitative - acquired in the districts which have already been reclaimed.
Should the soils and agronomic studies on the one hand and the hydrogeological surveys on the other indicate that the water table must be controlled and leaching waters removed, then the problems involved will be much more difficult and the solutions more costly. However, it is pointless to speculate about this at rhe moment since there are no elements on which to form an opinion.
2. 2 ROAD SYSTEM
In     view     of     the     elongated     form     of     the     Irrigation     Area     the     road     -system will have to be based on a main south-north road linking up with the- 24 -
Assab motorway which should run a few kilometers from the eastern boundary of the Area on the Alledeghi Plains. The ad. visability and the possibility will be examined of dimensioning the piers of the Melka Werer weir so as to carry a bridge con necting the Bolhamo and Kesem-Kebena Areas (when these are rt. claimed) to the motorways for Assab Addis Ababa and Dire Dawi through the main road in the Melka Sadi-Amibara district.
The road system inside the Melka Sadi-Amibara Area will also have secondary roads in stabilized earth and unpaved tracks giving access to the fields.
2.3 HYDROPOWER
The reclamation of the .Melka Sadi-Amibara Area and later those of Bolhamo and Angelele will require power for public and private consumption.
At this stage in the study, although the possibility of building a small plant running off the Awash flows has already been outlined m principle, it is premature to give indications as to intailed power and power production.
1 he problem will be elaborated in the next few months when an
Area withTl sion line
of the possibility of supplying the T *Clty frorn Addis Ababa - Dire Dawa transmit'
2. 4 FLOOD PROTECTION
Examination of the detailed map8 of ., 
.
the banks of the low-water bed of th A *** clearly shows that
than the surrounding plain, sometin, Wash arc distinctly higher
s fa y a. much as a few meter6.- 25
This is a situation explained by the depog
fractions carried by the flood waters when these overflow the
low-water banks, spread out over the flood plain and slowed down considerably by the thick bush which is nearly always present
along the banks.
Examination of the cross sections and the profile of the low-water bed of the Awash show that the river is not capable of conveying floods of the order of several hundred cubic meters per second 
such as those which occur now, even after the construction of the Koka dam,
To date flooding of the Melka Sadi and Ainibara plains by the Awash has not caused any difficulty since these are only inhabited by a few nomadic herdsmen and even they move to the Alledeghi Plains during the flood season .
However, after the Area has been reclaimed it will no longer be acceptable for the Awash to flood uncont rolledly both because of the direct and indirect damage which would result and because
with the levee formation there is always the danger Lhat the river may not return to its original bed (as very probably happened in 
the past on the Bolhamo Plain),
However, even when reclamation of the district has been com pleted, Lhe hydraulic regime of the Awash and its tributaries
will still not be finalized. Nonetheless, the_Compensatiou Re servoir which must be built at Awash Station to permit irrigation 
of the Bolhamo, Angeldc and Maro Gala areas and that on the Kesem for irrigating the Kesem-Kebena Area, will undoubtedly exert a routing effect on the floods, especially those on the Kesem which arc very fierce but very short*
The presence of a vast, unreclaimed (for now) plain on the left
bank of the Awash inhabited by but a few nomadic herdsmen will make it possible to protect the Area on the right side by means
of a relatively low dyke, allowing the floods to spread out on 
the left. When reclamation of the left bank areas is started, they will have to be provided with flood protection. Then, however, the Compunsation_Reservxiir_und the Kesem.Dam. will exert their rout ing effect and more complete data will be available on the whole- 26 -
situation. But even if it is then necessary to raise the right b part of the investment at least will be deferred for a few years *'
2. 5 GROUNDWATER AND WATER SUPPLY
Since there is sufficient water in the Awash to supply irrigation needs, the possibility of extracting and using for this end any groundwaters which the hydrogeological surveys may bring to light is excluded a priori.
The discovery of a technically exploitable aquifer in the Area with water of good enough quality (chemical and bacteriological)
could resolve the question of supplies for domestic use and industry in the simplest manner.- 27 -
2 6               IRRIGATION PARAMETERS
The irrigation parameters examined to date are:
monthly consumptive use
effective rainfall
field application efficiency
irrigation water requirements for each cropping pattern water application calendars for each crop
peak and seasonal volumes
daily time of irrigation
water modules
Tn this Report the irrigation parameters have been evaluated considering only the physical type of soil, mainly represented by the recent and less recent alluvials with a good moisture retention capacity and a reasonably deep surface horizon.
2. C- 1 Monthly Consumptive Use
Of the various formulae which can be utilized to calculate water requirements, that attributed to Blant-y-Criddle (l) has been chosen because:
only the data available for the Study Area are required it supplies values for each individual crop and for every month
(I)      U      S.      Department      of      Agriculture,      Soil      Conservation      Service      - ’’Irrigation       Water       Requirements”       -       Technical       Release       No.       21, 
April 1967.7
- 28 -
The    Bhiney-Criddle    formula    is    as    follows:
u = kf
where u          monthly consumptive use in inches
f -                      where £ is the monthly percentage of day
light hours in the year, and_t is the average
monthly temperature in °F
k - crop coefficient for the month.
Expressing    u    in    mm    and    the    temperature    in    DC    then    the    lormuli becomes
ii =i(). 254 (1.8 C° 4 32)p | X
Each crop coefficient k for a given month is obtained as the product of the monthly growth coefficient kc and a monthly coefficient kt linked to the average monthly temperature by the expression:
kt - 0.01731 - 0, 314 with t in °F
It is felt that the k coefficients derived from similar climatic zones in the USA can be adapted for the Study Area, without involving any appreciable error. J  the case of crops for which 
n
no experimental kc coefficient is available, analogies have beer- CT °PS Uklng accouflt seasonal k coefficient
indicated by Blaney-Griddle.
Table 2 was drawn up by applying the tenets set forth above. This shows the monthly consumptive use of the crops which might possibly be introduced into the Mclka Sadi-Amibara Ared*
The monthly consumptive uar (u) calculated in this manner h 6 then been used to determine the irrigation water require ments (i. x) using the expression.
where er effective rainfall
E = field application efficencv
Each
Final
calculation covers a period of (lr
Report a period of ter. days shall b ’ ’"hile i
• ® e rr^ijT' ■ l
n t he
con ’idered.MONTH! Y CONSUMFTJVL USt
(An mm)
Crop
January
ir —
-
February
March
April
May
Jun*
July
August
1
September
October
November        DcGcryiVcr
Temp. (®C)
Theoc, Evafvl ranepiratlcm
Summer Crooe
Cotton (early cycle)
- Cotton (rwrmal cycle)
- Mai ic
Tobacco (early cycle)
- Tobacco (late cycle)
- Groundout.
- Bujni
Winter Crop.
- Tobacco (winter)
- Groundnut • (winter)
- Be-in.
- Mais*
- Green Been.
- Tomitne. (])
<■
Multi annual Crcb.
w Alfalfa {and other .imtlar
crop.)
’ Cltru.
Banana ami sugar cifie
22.3                  23. 6 150             | 142
24. 7
164
26, 0
J 67
27, 1
160
29. 4
IS5
25. 0                 25. 9 1 04                  173
25 8
164
24. 7
162
23 5
It. 2
<50                   145
25.10
1,966
--
-
-
-
-
-
■
-
I
-
52
-
-
129
-
-
*
22 149
42 73
9Z
I ZB
109
174
HO
1B6
136
171
162
144
62
l6?
--
--
• ■ -
-
-
153 161
122                   134
163                   202
137                   202
144
167
160
131
99
-
695
632
622
599
550
626
40J
61                 L 01 134                     «) 150                   133 139                    147 114                      94
56                     3ft
161
37(b)
156
-
-
1*2
sow
< IS. -O-
i
-
ILt 145
65
-
-
_
545
4? a
405
_
15(b)                  78                     555
68
276
-
-
-
--
26
63
IDS                   112                     433
i
90                   102 89                     91
z :i9 122
141
L1J
150
172
123
164
21Z
U9
185
242
154
205
226 194
147 129
197 172
L67
119
147
Hl
HR
414
96
125
83
64
111
i. m
1. 395(e)
(*?
(h)
W
Tomato*. are taken a. repre.ensatlve of gth.r vegetable, (.uch ae arecn IlPppcy., ether Io k««p the market .uppliwd nil winter.
Only fir«I ten dayh of month,
Only iceshd fortnight of month.
flequiretneriti calculated on bail, of monthly k value. m |or cltrua Incren.n.L
. »« plant). <u). Th. ,.win< p.Ho‘1 will from |„ S-.pM.nUr to i.t Nov.mb T |n
.
pr^^lr M ,h.
.l
—  aii
O      Valu..fritTtt..k 0 60:lMBanilwl.iJi[irc4^kB 0>B0K
..
? urq»±- 30 -
2,6.2 Effective Rainfall
This depends on the type of soil, the morphology of the land, 
the climate as a whole and the intensity and overall amount
of rainfall received.
In the Study Area the rain falls in short, heavy showers. 
Losses by evaporation from the soil surface are high, as
are those from runoff whenever the rainfall intensity exceeds
the infiltration rate. In some cases rainfall intensity is over
30-40 mm/hour.
On the basis of these qualitative assessments and by analogy 
and comparison with other similar areas, in first approximation 
the effective rainfall is thought to be around 50% of the total fall
In    the    later    parts    of    the    study,    it    is    planned    to    utilize    two    basic series of data:
rainfall intensity diagrams recorded at Awash Station  -t.on rate graphs for the most typical soils in the Study Area.
These d^la will nraridp 
riinf^ll      nn      Hi      j      r      much      better      picture      of      the      effective
.
rainiall position and from
„ Umale Qf *»
.
1 he effective rainfall, average of each month, has been sub tracted from the crop water requirements in order to deter - mine the average seasonal volumes of irrigation water which will be needed. The figure has not< hov cver been gubfltracted 
.
when deciding on the dimension of the irri
network(
especially    in    the    case    of    the    distributary    canals    in    view    of    the
great variability of rainfall from one v „
e    tn .. the     rainiest     months     when     there     ma
in
v
|
a.,. (a p.r.od >» exp... 
be     <     '•bother     even “ "j P-Pd. Of 10-15
* So*l can store water).- 31
The term field application efficiency indicates the ratio between water used and water distributed within the irrigation unit. It reflects losses from surface and deep percolation, direct evaporation from the soil, and losses from the canals conveying the water within the bounds of the irrigation unit.
Field application efficiency depends essentially on pedological factors and can be improved by good irrigation layout and wise control of water on the field. The stage of growth of the crops is also a factor, losses being greatest at the start of the grow ing cycle.
Here again, there are no instruments which give a direct reading of on-field water losses and so it has been necessary to draw on experience gained in other areas.
A more detailed calculation will be given in the Final Report. This will take account of soil types and crops. Here, instead, an average figure, of 0. 667 has been adopted for the field ap plication efficiency. In other words, it is estimated that 1/3 
of the water which is applied is lost. Broadly, it is thought that 50% of this loss will be due to deep percolation. 40% to surface pc rcolalion and 10% to direct evaporation. These proportions will also be adopted when considering the design of the drainage network.
6. 4 Irrigation Water Requirements
These requirements have been calculated from:
theoretical data derived from the foregoing parameters experimental indications from the Melka Werer Research Station (the irrigation tests are only now beginning to provide more complete data)
practical surveys on farms in similar zones nearby (Awora Melka, Metahara, Abadir and Nuraera),- 32 -
Table 3 gives the irrigation water requirements. For
crop two figures are given; first the theoretical figure and C
that adjusted on the basis of:                                                                                 e' practical     pointers     obtained     from     the     various     farms
the need to respect given watering volumes
the   need   to   ensure   the   amount   of   moisture   required   for   the
seeds to germinate or for the seedlings to 'take' considerations on the advisability of interrupting irrigation at harvest time. 
;
The
monthly 
require
ments
for
the
selected 
cropping
patterns
-
(
II-3.6)     have
been 
calculat
ed 
on 
the
basis
of
the
requirements
;
for each crop. The findings are reported in Figs. 3. 4, 5 and 6. 
Two stages have been envisaged for each cropping pattern: the . first holds good for the initial ten years of the scheme (!) and the second for the succeeding years. In the second stage there
is a greater percentage of land on which two crops are grown in any one year(U- 3. S). 
Although the water requirements for the second stage are greater as far as annual volume is concerned, there is nO change in peak irrigation requirements, which occur in 
August and September.
Only when it is known how much water will really be available in the Awash can a decision be taken as to what percentage of the area can be devoted to winter crops. However, broadly speaking, it does not seem that the intensification of cultivation 
.n the winter period will apprctiabIy alt„ the hlcm of fio* control in the Awash,
*
■
1
(!) Fifteen years, for the
5 ®ttlement
"cherne,
V I : *■ L KV-rj'3J *-
lahlei
|j) fkaa u«ds|
|'l) O*t|f KfM Jor’xijkt c4 muiuk, (hl fMly fir al Ira lift uf taionlh
(c] tHlIr Mtnai fPFl*lKhl uf runaili
r*=lrwTir   u ja|n»mh#r io Irl Hnw*mb*T.*
- 34 -
2            5 Water Application Calendar^
Waler     applications     can     only     be     calculated     exactly     when     all hydraulic characteristics of each soil association are known
Indicative     values     have     been     derived     in     this     first     phase     of     the study considering that:
most of the soils have good moisture retention;
estate farming calls for a certain amount of mechanization 
and hence the irrigation plots need to be of a reasonable
size;
irrigation      layouts      and      techniques      have      already      been      tested on other farms in the area.
In the light of the foregoing, it has been decided to adopt indica
tive values ranging from 800 to 1, 000 cu. m/ha, running from
vegetables to field crops .and from the first phase of the growth 
cycle to that of complete development.
The    data    for    the    individual    crops    and    for    typical    growing    eeaso^ are shown in Figs, 7. 8 and 9.
basis of the foregoing, the number of waterings Per
i . 
C ir  d
- ividual crop or homogeneous crop groaP
has been worked out.
5
2. 6, 6
(see Figs  3. I'and t )'.
8
1    5 n°rir,3Uy occur in September
The requirements calculated abnv^
as far as rainfall and temperatur re Cr to tJie average yea data on climate are available fOr a V' C°nccrne^* Since no preservative cycle of years, it has ^Ulf‘C3entiy long and re- a scale of requirement freq
Qfinc eB
i
possible to estabn5
perature. However, in view of the relation to rainfall and 
8    COntrlbution derived
from rainfall in the peak period anti th*** * 
burrow range of tem-- 35
perature variation between one year and another (typical of
this kind of climate}, there ia reason to believe that there will he little difference between requirements in the driest and the average years and that anyway these will fall within the limits of physiological tolerance of the plants. An attempt will be made to define this question more precisely in the next few months.
In short, when deciding on the dimensions ior the primary and secondary canal network (main and branch canals), account can be taken of the small contribution made by the rains when asses sing irrigation requirements. Quite apart from the cropping pattern which is finally selected as being the best, thr primary and secondary networks will be designed to cope with the crop ping pattern with the highest peaks. On the one hand this is
not expected to call for any excessive oversizing, and on the other it will ensure the network is extremely flexible. The economic aspects of this decision will be dealt with in the second stage of the Study. Cropping pattern A is the most demanding with its peak water requirement of t l/sec/ha. (This figure is for the net hectare and at the entry point of the irriga tion unit).
In view of the need for the distribution network to be as flexible as possible the rainfall contribution has not been subtracted from the irrigation requirement.
In practice the individual irrigation unit for the estates will generally carry only one crop in any given season. The distribution network will therefore be designed to cope with the requirements of the most demanding crop to be shown. However, alfalfa, bananas, and sugar cane have been excluded since it is doubtful whether these will ever occupy large areas of the irrigation district. In any case, these crops have an annual productive cycle and so it would not be out of place to assume that a brief, temporary reduction in water allocation would not have any marked affect on yields.
From Table 4 , which gives the peak irrigation requirements, it can be seen that those for the five crops around which the cropping patterns hinge are fairly close and almost always inPEAK IRRIGATION WATER REQUIREMKN I‘5
(j/«» /h* of cultivated net auriAce)
C
JanuAry
March
—
ApriJ
Novrruber ,
!)«•: e mb. r
1 June
July
1
------- — —
August                   Sepicmbe r
OcKolbe T
I   SteryijTij; r
Cotton (early) Cotton (rmnuj)
Tobacco
Bear^z
GpdndnuLa
Wjnler Crop;
GrcLL&dJ) ur«
Brans
Grsrn Bean*
Maize
j o&acja
0 JO
.
-
-
or
—
0 46
0. 24
0. 6H
0. 61
0. 77
0. 91
0. 83
0. 4 1
0. 94
LJ_1
L_U
LxJU
0. Hl            1
0.?Q
.b_02
0. 83
0. 94
0. Hl
!L2M
0. 7 3
0. 90
-
0. 55
0, 53
0. 74
-
-
-
-
0. 46
■
-
-
-
•
•
•
•
-
»
-
-
-
*
-
0. 67
-
0.41(b)
0. 81
0. 48
0. 38
0. 44
-
T^n-.j  to*»  Jii'anrf  nEher jirrrai-" r ejrupa)
-
-
_
-
-
1
Afuiri Anriua T C£4 i?®_
AJfaJfa
C j ' r u b
B-Snas'.a aud s-jjja-
-
D. 15
0, 35
0. 71
£, M
0.76
Lai!
fl.
iJJ
1.27
0- 82
l!1
1.09
0. 72
0. 96
!
month.
Y U «*«M ferlmght M month.
0. 97
0. 69
0.92
a. 82
0.62
O. 83
0. 66
D. 56
0. 46
| 0, 47
/- 37 -
September. In rounded figures, these are:
1)    Cotton:
1.10 l/sec/ha cultivated.   in Scptember(early cycle)
2)
Tobacco:
I. 00
l/sec/ha cultivated.
in September
3)      Maize:
4) Groundnuts: 1.10
1. 10   l/sec/ha cultivated.
l/sec/ha             cultivated, 
5)
Beans:
1.10
l/sec/ha cultivated,
in September in August
in August.
Inter    alia,    it    will    be    noted    that    these    values    are    not    very    different from those for the most demanding cropping patterns.
Hence, when deciding on the dimensions of the distribution network, the figure of 1.10 l/sec/ha net will be adopted as the basic parameter. In the Final Report, this parameter will
be redefined in relation to the peak ten-day or decadal demand, rather than the peak monthly demand.
2.6,7 Daily Time of Irrigation
The number of hours daily which can be used for irrigation is technically and economically decisive in all irrigation layouts. The extremes are:
irrigation merely during daylight hours, say 14 hours
- continuous irrigation throughout the 24 hours.
In the first case there are the following advantages and dis advantages:
a) Advantages
-     manpower does not need to be so skilled
-     field irrigation efficiency is greater.- 38 -
b) Disadvantages
-    daily storage capacities required
-    irrigation network must be larger
-    more network maneuvers required each day
-    water losses due to the amounts left in the canals
-    greater wear and tear on canals because of daily filling and emptying.
Advantages and disadvantages, in the second case, are the obverse of those in the first case.
Leaving aside for the moment an exact economic evaluation, present preference falls on 24-hours irrigation in the peak period for the following reasons:
assuming that the same level of irrigation efficiency must be attained in both cases, the greater labor costs must be
argely balanced by the lower capital and operational costs
v 
ac< luired on the most progressive farms in the
irrio\S         °^5         ?lere         is         an         increasing      trend      towards      24-hours k   r    da' “d “■*' availab‘°
ha'dn" ,r ‘°
<■/
ho...
uration (see Flgs 1 0 and 11).
delayed if the desion is t
It is apparent that the final H
s ls to go ahead.
The proposed irrigation layout provides for submersion irrig * 
CCI8*on on this point cannot be long 
a
tion of small plots and furrow irrigation.
Experience acquired in similar environments and especially o’1 other farms in the VaUey indicates that it would be advisable to design the distribution canals for a discharge of 50 55 1/scc. 
.
This could b<-split intc>2-4 submodules should it be necessary 
" 800 ,q“"m""- B9 -
The area of the irrigation  unit derives from the ratio  between the distribution  module and  the unit discharge.  On  a 24-hour day basis this becomes
50-55 l/aec 1.10 l/sec
- 45-50 ha cultivated.
When irrigation is practised for half the day. the irrigation unit itself is halved in size, becoming 22-25 ha net.r iu. j
IRRIGATION WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR CROPPING PATTERNS "A" AND "B '
N.J4256IRRIGATION WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR CROPPING PATTERNS "Al" AND "Bi"
“o2*257FIG 5
IRRIGATION WATER REQUIREMENTS FOR
CROPPING PATTERN "C"
N*2425S
IITA|cO%SULTr iv. o
IRRIGATION water requirements for settlersIRRIGATION CALENDAR WINTER CROPSIRRIGATION CALENDAR SUMMER CROPS
COTTON
< EARLY CYCLE)
COTTON
( normal c YClE
A
•
•e
rain
-4-----I—J. ..1--1—
rain
- - - L------------------- — •• ~
TOBACCO
( normal c YCLE )
)©
0d
ram
*AA
rain
.------- 4------ -------- .i
groundnuts
rain                       ram
•
;
i .4--.
---------- |i
maiz
rain
I—
5$
ram
••
*1               5
J4- 4-
r
beans
ee
rain
AA
six
r am
1
-t
MONTH
JUNE                     JULY
august
SEPTEMBER
OCTOBER
NOVEMBER
OECEMBER
WATER APPLICATION
“---- LU VOLUMES
®
800         900          1000 m3/ha
----------------- GROWING PERIOO ----------------- HARVEST periOO
o- i <H
C—jIRRIGATION CALENDAR MULTIANNUAL CROPS
*•2*262HOURS OF IRRIGATION FOR THE CROPPING PATTERNS "A” and “B‘
PATTERN
STAGE
■*•-24263
ITALCO*i>L'1 T IDAILY HOURS OF IRRIGATION FOR THE CROPPING PATTERNS 'A'and “Bi"
24264
TALCONBULTFIU. U
SCHEME OF IRRIGATION UNIT (ha 50) 1st SOLUTION
No. 24265SCHEME OF IRRIGATION UNIT (ha 50)
20^ SOLUTION
IRRIGATION UNIT
IRRIGATION PLOT ( 2500 nr? )
Secondary irrigation canal
No. 24266-4
I- 41
S, AGRICULTURE ANU LIVESTOCK
ECOLOGICALLY POSSIBLE CROPS
The     climatic     and     pedological     conditions     and     the     amount     of     irri gation     water     available     indicate     that     a     wide     range     of     crops     an ecologically       possible       here.       However,       only       for       a       certain       number
is sufficient experimental and  practical information  available on the nature,  timing  and  methods of crop  care and  the yields which might be obtained  under irrigation  in  the soil and  climatic condi- lions pertaining in the middle Awash Valley .
To      summarize,      in      Table      5      the      individual      species      arc      distinguished on the basis of the following indications:
a)      Crops fur which sufficient test work has been done to permit
at least an initial evaluation of their practical possibilities and 
which have given good results (1 I.
b)           Crops     which     have     been     successfully     grown     already     on     farms in this area (2),
c)      Crops which are unknown or insufficiently known under local
conditions and which have not been tested; crops for which test
work run so far has not been successful or the results incon
clusive and for which it would be. advisable to run further tests
before giving them further consideration (I),
d)           Crops     which     can     be     grown     successfully     and     whose     marketing prospects are favorable.
e.i     Crops     which     can     be     grown     successfully     but     whose     marketing prospects appear unfavorable (see Annex A, for further details),
'.I)     This     test     work     was     done     by     the     Ntclka     Wcrer     Research     Station 
. of the Institute of Agricultural Research.
(2) The surveys covered the Awora Melba Farms and Mura Era
Farms belonging to Mr. Montanari, the National Resources
Share Corporation’s Abadir Farm, and the HVA Metahara Farm42
Ecologically possible crops: breakdown by present knowledge Of technical feasibility and market demand
Cereal*
-    Mau«
• Rica
-   Sorghum
. Wheat
' Fiber Crop*
• CotlOQ
-  ,K«naf
JUta
-   Ramie
Fodder Crop!
Alfalfa
Rerteetn
Clovar
Elephant
grata
Sudan gr**«
Fruit Tt»«» Avocado
peart
Banana*
Cit run Custard*
Date*
Grape*
Guava Mangoes Papaya* PaalMO  fruit*
Pinapple* Spondia*
Oil 5«ed*
- C»*tor bean*
Crop*
Oil Scedf (Cont )
Groundnut*
Ntug
Rape
Saif lower
Setame
Soya beano
Sunflower
Bean*
Chick pea*
Lentil*
Pea*
Sugar and Stirnu-
Sugar rane
Tobacco
Vegetable* and
Spite*
Ba mia
Cabbage*
Carrot*
Cucumber*
Eggplant
Garden beets
Green be«n*
Groan pea*
Lettuce
Melon*
O&ion*
Paprika
^“r-p^pperi
Potato* a
P’-mpInn.
3*eat potato.
Tamatae.
Water rn«ton
(a) See teat.
X X X X X                            XX- 43 -
3. 2 CONDITIONS OF PRODUCTION AND SELECTED ANTICIPATED YIELDS
Irrigated agriculture in the Middle Valley of the Awash is of relatively recent origin, while the Melka Werer expert mental station, where fairly systematic observationshave been made on 
the various aspects and problems of a number of cultivated species, was only started up two years ago. Thus only a relatively small number of crops considered as ecologically suitable — and among these only few varieties - have so far been examined, and for
the species considered some of the essential agronomic problems still require elaboration .
It is therefore impossible, for the time bring, to say whether the consistency and frequency of the agronomic practices recorrimendcd as a result of trials made, or because they have been accepted 
by farmers in existing irrigated areas, are the optimum ones
in the local environment. Nor is it possible to affirm whether the yields at present obtained are the highest possible. However, for
the purposes of the present study only those technical practices
will be considered that have already been experimented at Melka Werer or adopted by the farms already operating in the Awash Middle Valley, Similarly, for yields, only the levels already reached in sufficiently .acceptable and well-proven conditions
will be taken.
All the experience and irrigation farming effected in the Middle Valley have been carried out on the basis of mechanization of
all land preparation operations. For this reason, the same
technique is taken in the assumptions and in the computations which follow.
As already mentioned (see para. 3. I), the available data do not show that the climatic conditions are Likely to hinder or prevent
to any appreciable extent agricultural production suitably aided 
by irrigation, However, specific experiments carried out in this respect have shown that the final outcome of any given crop mainly depends on the sowing period, and that for almost all the crops
there is onc^eriod or more than one period fo7 optimurn^ra^TT ~ The sowing periods of the individual species have thus been 
carefully considered on the basis of the experience acquired.- 44 -
It has already been shown that the number of varieties tried o.t is relatively small. Thus, even in this respect, it is not poBsibie to affirm whether the variety or the varieties on which we tu  _ 
rn
ed our attention represent aL present the most suitable nbjective
choice within the vast range of existing varieties, Eten thou^
is possible to foresee that, following further comparative tests, 
some fuller knowledge can be acquired in this matter, the coni- putations which follow will be made taking into consideration only the varieties considered to be the better ones in the light of
present knowledge.
The seeding of most of the cultivated species takes place by machine on ground thal, depending on the crop, may be furrowed and/or levelled The methods used and the distance between the seeds seems, nevertheless, lo have been defined in a sufficiently satisfactory way.
Transplanting, for the species which require a seedbed for their firsl development phases is al present always done by hand, and the computations which follow take this circumstance into consi deration
The experiments so far conducted at Melka Werer have considered irrigation only from -.he point of view of the times between appli
cations, without taking into account the comparative effect or the quantums of water individually applied Or the overa]1 appiicatio^
tor the various crops examined in this respect. It J, al present impossible to judge accurately whether the irrigation now used i* 
the most suitable for the available water- h , 
■ d from .de
ot
* 
’ ^W-vUlen ce »bt.»
t rain-
belief that i_rriRation-use is fairly near
tical calculations applied to the local ao'n T °-btaine - -y tbeorC
With regard to crop care, the presence of a ,
jy regarding weeds is to be 3treused. This COns’ tent problem
.
1 an(l climate conditions-
s
some species with particularly intrusive which are hard to eliminate, such Cvn lrirac
teri tics and
e
(Jactilnin Local experiments made u-i1 h 
*- ■ ie rn j £ -v j
^ Uc
fln d Cvnodon
not for the moment seem to have given sati f  Weedkillers do 
sa
problem is presently tackled with mcchanf^ lt(>ry results. The by hand ar with hand weeding alone, 
We «ding completed- 45 -
The problem of fertilization has only been partly investigated, while for certain crops no investigation has in fact been triads - Most of the trials conducted at Melka Werer have, however, shown a^relatively scarce and on occasions nil or even negative reaction 
( 2'             reft crops to fertilizers. This gives, at least in the light of pre-
‘ Sent knowledge, apparent reason to the current practice, in the
/-Middle Valley which does not provide for any application of fer- k f / tilizer on most of the seasonal crops. Although it is felt that the
problem deserves to be closely followed up, in view of the pos-
, 
1
7                  sible acquisition of new data likely to justify a probably different |/ future approach, in Lhe computations which£ollow the^principl?
I of non-fertilization will be accepted, except for those crops and 
—nrttrn §e^extehts considered to be justified by lhe trials made or
-
by the practical results from the best-run farms.
Parasites - especially insect posts - and fungus diseases consti
tute for many crops - and above all fur cotton - a serious drawback which conditions the possibility of obtaining profitable yields. The ability to effectively contain the damage by using insecticides and pesticides and the systems of application which have been discovered relatively recently, have constituted and constitute
one of the essential methods to attain the yields discussed today.
While pest control over extensive areas requires the use of aircrafts, it seems worthwhile to point out that the rhythm and consistence of the applications should take place according to a prearranged schedule drawn up by competent personnel and for mulated on the basis of an exact knowledge of the species of pest present and of the essential characteristics of their biological
cycle, rather than left to the unprepared opinion expressed from time to time by the farmers concerned.
Harvesting is now, according to the local practice, carried out entirely by hand. This system will be kept also in these prelimi nary estimates and is probably a valid assumption for the initial phases of the project: a rapid adoption of a relatively complex mechanized operation would be difficult. However, such mechaniz ation may reasonably be expected over a suitable space of time within (he context of the evolution of the zone's agriculture; and this type of operations will be reconsidered in the later stages
of the study:- 4b -
rhe labour force employed in the present agricultural work of
the Middle Valley, although mostly coming from agricultural
districts, has no experience in irrigated agriculture and forms
on the whole a limiting factor to the satisfactory adoption of
technical practices requiring special competence and far-sight-
edness.
The     expected     average     entrepreneurial     skill     of     the     operators     who will manage the future farms will alsa.be taken into account.
Bearing the above in mind, an outline is given of the conditions (or preparing the soil, for seeding and for crop care which are thought to be valid for the industrial type farms and for the first phase of the project, as well as of the unit yields thought to be likely (sec Table 6)
tor the same reasons used in justifying, with the transition of the first to the second phase of the project, an increase in the extension of double cropping each year (see para. 2. 4. 3), it is assumed that at the end of the first phase there will also be an increase in the average yields, which for the individual crops may be as follows:
Average yields of the
T obacco Cotton
Maize Groundnuts 1 •
Beans
Vegetables
cjops grov.n on the industrial farms 1st period
qls/ha qls/ha qls/ha, , qls/ha Qls/ha
2nd period 17
22 40
23
qls/ha                              280                             20 330
15
18 V
30
18
16
Furthermore,  with  regard  to  the qualitaf
.v«r.g. realization .obacco, 
i„lc., thc
bo assumrd l„ E.h. $ 
Iron. Eth .» , „
can
W, ’«TOp.rq . *
*** ' ' ' z
1
nCQNDitiocs of pucinueTJON and anticipated uiel-ds for minJfcTniAi- jahwj- 48 -
Within the context of the settlement, the cultural techni(?Ues practised are expected to be the same as those considered for
the industrial type farm In particular all works tor land pre. paration will be mechanized, while the weeding and ridging 
be carried out by machine and finished by hand. However the expected yields in the settlement are expected to be somewhat ]e than those likely to be reached on industrial type farms, on account of the lower efficiency and skill of the farmers and despite the technical assistance to be provided to the settled farme rs'organization. Below are set out the average yields considered acceptable for the settlers’ crops during the first and second periods of the project's activities.
AxSJg&e yields of the crops grown on the settlement
1
1 st pe rlod
2nd period
T obacco
ql/ha
12
13.5
Maize
ql/ha
24
32
Beans
ql/ha
13
18
Groundnuts
ql/ha
14. 5
21
Vegetables
ql/ha
150
200
With regard to quality, it j8 as , 
tobacco - referred to dry leaf SUme<i ^at the average price of
first period to Eth^bOql. i  the
n
fr °mEth-$100/l1 in thC• 49 -
CULTIVATION COSTS
Interviews with enterprises presently engaged in irrigated agri culture in the upper and middle Awash areas, have provided the first indications on the techniques used at present in cultivating crops, as well as on cultivation costs for each crop. For a number of crops (e- g cotton, tobacco, citrus fruit) more than one source of information could be tapped and compared. For others, only one source could be tapped. Full cooperation was obtained on this subject by the mission at Wonji, Metahara, NuraEra, Abadir* Awora Melka. The information obtained was sifted, checked and completed on the basis of other data collected in Ethiopia and on the basis of Italconsult*s own agronomic experience. Annex C
'Jhhlcs MO provide cultivation costs per ha for all the crops which were considered as candidates for cultivation in Melka Sadi - Amibara. Table 7 gives the basis for the calculation of machine and implement hourly costs and was derived from data furnished by traders in Addis Ababa. Table 8 gives an indication of the cost of inputs (fertilizers, pesticides, seed), which was derived from the actual experience of farms already operating in the Awash basin.
Labor costs have been calculated on two different bases: a market rate, which is the wage rate applicable today in the Awash Valley, and a ’’real" rate, which reflects the economic cost of labor, the concept of which is more fully described below (para 5< 1), Labor costs have been assumed to grow over time, at the same rate of Lhe growth in productivity, but the cost of machinery and inputs has been considered constant throughout the life of the project. This procedure is dictated by the necessity of projecting the eco nomic conditions of the project against the background of an equili brium growth process for the economy as a whole. It is to be not ed that, as a result of such assumption, cultivation costs present
a smooth rising trend (see Tbble 9 
), while the yields (or the
productivity) of the project can rise only in leaps and bounds, depending on assumption related to the development of the project (see para 3. 6). An important point, which needs further study in the second phase of this study, is the degree of mechanization in cultivation, appropriate to the project and during its lifetime. Table 10 shows the cost per ha of a number of operations which can be-carried out either manually or mechanically. Virtually 
all machine operations appear cheaper than manual ones, but aHOURLY COST nr MACHINE® ANO IMPLEM^N  1 (Elk I)
7- 51
Table 8
PRICES PAID BY FARMERS FOR AGRICULTURAL MATERIALS
Item
Unit of
Measure
Pri ce
Eth.S
Fertili zera:
-  Complex fertilizer (NPK)
1 ql
-  Urea
-  Ammonium sulphate
i qi
i qi
29. 60
33. 00
20. 00
Pesticides
-  D. D. T.
iu
-  Endrin
ln
-  Cottoran Ciba
ik
g
-  Malathion
-  Di mi tr on Ciba
-  Karatain
-  Roger
-  Ncmapaz
i it
i it
i kg
I it
i it
0. 85
3. 80
13, 50
2. 25
18. 00
I I. 00
6. 50
2. 00
Seeds
-  Cotton
-  Groundnuts
-  Tomato
-  Eggplant
-   Green peppers
-  Maize (hibrid)
I ql
1 ql kg kg kg qi
-  Beans
qi
-  String beans
ql
1 30. 00
30. 00
10. 50
I 0. 50
14. 00 
I 00. 00
35. 00
192. 00
Plants
-  Citrus fruit
1 
I. 00
-  Grape
I
0. 20
-  Mango
I
1. 00
Other inputs
-  Wood
m3
6. 6t>- 52 -
CULTIVATION COSTS: OPERATIONS BASED ON ALTERNATIVE MECHANICAL OR MANUAL TECHNIQUES
(Eth.$)
Cost of labour
Total cost
Item
Cost
of
mac hincs
Market
rates
Real
rates
Market
rates
Real
rates
\.
C otton
Mechanical sowing
Manual sowing
Mechanical weeding (a) Manual weeding
B fans
10.98
23. 10
10. 62
17. 61
61.75
107.31
7.92
12.40
42.61
73. 71
21.60
17.61
84. 85
107. 31
18,90
12. «
65.71
73.71
Mechanical weeding
Manual. weeding
Groundnuts
Mechanical sowing
Manual sowing
23.10
-
68.09
i07.se
47. 19
73. 9S
9J . 19 107. 58
9.6l
2.44
30.08
1.89
20. 88
12. 05
30,08
70. 29 73.95
1
11.50 20. 8S
(a) With manual finishing.TIME DEVELOPMENT OF CULTIVATION COSTS PER. ha
lElh. $1
1974-197#
1979-19BJ
w-im
19*9*1993
--------------------
1
1994*1999
1999-2003
Crops
Market
Ratet
Re*! Rate*
Market
Rate a
Real Ratee
Marsel
Ratus
Real Rates
Ma eke t
Ratos
Real Rates
Market
Ratus
Real Rales
Market
Rates
Real Rates
Mai re
Bean*
J27 11
*50.T I
266. 45
352, 22                2*3 69
ISO, 5#                303. 36
Groundnut! 191. 00
Sudan gr-s* (1) 642. 2*
274 44 3B1.4B 29*.6m 416 46 319 77
300. B7 423, 73 332.50 461. 1 I 353. Z5
703 04               534. U0                 772 16                 5#1. 82
Gat tan
Allan* (I Hi)
Tobacco
Green beAns
Cltras fruit (5)
67*. S3
721. 10
65* 13
93*. 75
49k 96
57ft. 49
bZO. 92
719,21
7b» 21
606. 52                 765 IB                 637. 96
677 41 934. 65
63 5 02 977. 0b
653 25 819. 47
713 72 I. 025. 26
661,53
l,««. 15
689. 92
797. 79
891 95
-                          -                   k ] 34. 24                  912,21
Vegetables                               9*7. 90
797 ID               k 067. JO               452. B7             U157. 58
915. 91
111. 42
454 52
501.71
B47 67
415 14
B?5. 36
k 123, 69
1,075. JJ 1,221. 01
1.255 #4
324. 40
345. 58
1B5 Bl
632 97
671- 77
729, 36
866 26
92B, 6D
977.85
9*3. 5|
446, 90
493. 30
540. 43
934. 36
672. 65
9*9 52
1,237. ID
1. 134. 27
1,355. 76
I, 36». 90
349. 01
575. 75
410 05
692 85
71k 18
775, 30
446- 51
969-22
k054. 53
k 062. 55
497. 07
547. 90
601 13
1. 032, 54
937. 79
1.012. 14 1*365. 55
1,201. 05
1.457, 72
1.496, 95
577. 22
410 56
455 01
761.49
756. B5
42? 85        | k 038. 59
1, 015, *3
1.141,66
k 153. 16
(1)    May>
(2)    1 it ysar Mill
{jj Cui Eava lies, CGati became slablt irt I *1II6.
Table jo- 54 -
full economic justification for accepting machine operations t, preference over manual operations, must take into account al,c the acquisition costs of the machines, which are excluded fron. cultivation costs (only a capital recovery factor or a reconstitute quota, is included in the hourly cost of machines). For the purpc, of the present report, mechanized operations have been retain^ preference to manual ones: but a change in this treatment is not unlikely for continuation of this study. Furthermore, a deeper
study of the possibilities of future mechanization needs to be carried out, as some mechanical operations (e. g. cotton picking may well become feasible at the rise of labor costs, during the lifetime of the project.
3.4 CHOICE OF CROPS: SHORT-CUT METHOD
C'
Ab in all feasibility studies of irrigation areas where the num
of ecologically possible crops is large, the choice of crops on which to build cropping patterns to be tested for their _rates_^ return^ requires the adoption of criteria to make the number o. alternatives small enough to be workable. The criteria used haie been as follows:
a)   Market restrictions. Theseare of two main types: a limit output of a crop determined by the size of domestic market, when the export market is not feasible (e g grapes, bananas- sugar): a limit to output determined by the absence of a crop in'thr consumer basket of the country (  g rice), when the
e
export market is either not feasible or untested The e*P°  . 
rt
market - lor those crops which can be exported - has general ly been considered as capable of absorbing an unlimited amount of output, mainly because nv • 
small fraction .1 ,otal ?„tW«pre..»« a
con.idrr.d, bni
i. .Lay. a price lo. «„.ugh
bec.o.a "’h ’ b°J
«?rV t
car  in* market.
b)      Crop returns. A preliminary Btreamlined • e . .dr
mining single crop rates of return has be Xrrclze (oT 1
Production costs per ha for each crop 
Carried out
-
along with the value of saleable output tX’
estimated,
benefit    over    a    30-year    period    has    been     , 
c
*            g    net
resultin
mate of investment costs per ha lor th.. ‘rpart'd with an csti*
Pr °>«. derived from- 55 -
the UNSF Survey  of the Awash  River Basin.  The results have shown  that among  the crops not subject to  market restriction, tobacco shows the highest return, followed by cotton and
- with lower returns - by maize pulses and groundnuts. Among crops subject to market restriction, vegetables are high return crops, followed by citrus fruit. Livestock product, when based on forage crops* show' low returns, but these improve considerably when groundnut forage is substituted for forage crops.
c)      Alternative supply. Although the study of alternative supply in Ethiopia is left to the second phase of the study, it has been provisionally assumed that a number of crops now grown in traditionally rainfed farming should not be grown in the project area (e.g. ft/eug, teff, berbere). This hypothesis will be
' further tested later.
On the basis of such criteria, cropping patterns have been set up taking into account the relative profitability of crops as shown under (b) above.
3. 5 MARKETING ASPECTS
Annex A reviews in detail the marketing aspects ot those ecologi cally possible crops for v/hich a prima facie case of possible favorable marketing conditions could be established. The crops examined are: cotton, tobacco, sugar cane cereals (particularly maize), oilseed (particularly groundnuts and cotton seed), pulses, fruits (particularly banana and citrus fruit), vegetables, livestock products. Present demand and supply conditions are described, and estimates of future domestic demands are given. The world market situation is also analysed. Prices are discussed, for the purpose of establishing the correct ex-farm prices to be assumed in the eco nomic justification of the project. At this preliminary stage, the supply from alternative areas in Ethiopia has been considered only in a very preliminary way.
The main conclusion of the marketing study car. be summarized as fol low’s.- 56 -
Tobacco and cotton do not appear to have a serious marketing problem: the former has ample opportunities in the export
while the latter finds its destination on the domestic market. Whi|, prices tor tobacco may well remain unchanged, in the future, cot ton prices arc likely to experience a fall. It has been assumed, 
for the purpose of this report, that cotton for the domestic marke should bear prices which are competitive with imported cotton, disregarding the protection presently afforded to the locai product,
Sugar cane finds a limit in the present structure of production. Moreover, it appears difficult to consider sugar production a
valid economic proposition at present and future international prices are likely to be very low.
Cereals, oilseeds and pulses do not meet a marketing constraints. 1- ruits, instead, have a very small domestic market, and any large scale production should be exported: the difficulties, in this case, arc serious and the project area may not enjoy production advanta ges sufficient to offset them.
Vegetables,    on    any    large    scale,    require    an    export    market.    Such 
n marltpf nn tKo « ■
-
iiaumunou aiutK-Breeding m highl d ---••t**-*•****/**
4?:- 57 -
alternative cropping patterns
In this Feasibility Study the principle of using only data of well- proven reliability has been adopted. In addition, the degree of reliability of all the data must be approximately the same. In deed, sufficient test work or practical work has already been done on the crops considered to indicate that with the techniques adopted, they are capable of giving satisfactory yields. Natural ly, the possibility of marketing the harvests has also been borne in mind.
After the above discussion on ecologically possible craps, the results of the short-cut method on single crop profitability and the marketing analysis, the following crops have been chosen aa candidates for setting up possible cropping patterns for the pro ject area:
-    tobacco
-    cotton
-    maize
-    groundnuts
-    vegetables
In addition, beans should also be included, for the purposes of providing a subsistence crop in the case of settlers' farms
(beans have been taken as representative of a variety of pulses),
' Results obtained so far indicate that tobacco will be the basic
i crop in the economy of the irrigation district over the coming years. From the economic point of view* cotton comes *imme-
j( diately behind tobacco.
Other crops such as maize, groundnuts and beans will be destin ed to play something of a supporting role determined by the need to rotate the crops and the convenience of making available items for local consumption. They will also complete certain crop calendars and help ensure that the best possible use is made of the technical means and manpower available*Vegetables have been included, due to their high profitability 
though marketing uncertainties exist as to total saleable quanti. 
ties. This implies that restrictions_should_be_impos.ed..on the ta. 
tai area to be cultivated under vegetables (green peppers and eg?. 
plants have been taken as representatives of a variety of vegetable
these do not include gTeen beans, which appear to have a slightly 
lower profitability and to have opportunities for cultivation in 
other areas in Ethiopia), As a working hypothesis, 1 0J4 of the
total cropped area will be allocated to this group of products.
On the basis of the foregoing, a number of alternative cropping 
patterns have been worked out (see Table 11 ) which are deemed 
suitable for commercial farming
In  view of the climate,  crops can  theoretically  be sown  success fully  at any  time of the year.  However,  the observations and  in formation collected tend to indicate that in the Study Area there
these seasons, others for the second, while the remainder can 
be sown equally well in either and are quite tolerant to being sown even outside the optimum period.
When assessing the best sowing period for each crop, due account
as wicn 
total Of not mor e than 1 20 days. 
ground is
y  occupied for a49
SELECTED CHOrFlNG PATTERNS FOR COMMERCIAL FARMS
ini! | I-l tn TQiJl T"" f J
A
(51
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<*>
<*l   ■n
■h
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r”
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‘ml ^■'-n
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J.LAJ F-
fl f u uidretll ’
F4lJu»
— ,o
10
n t> *
id
43
10
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ID
16
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ia(*'
ID
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— to                  90
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T<>
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to
ID
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in
to
Z-d Y»«
MALI*
V           hl-B
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tuLilJf"
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ion
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l
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i
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Df liuKdin .(f e
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ind gea*ua
. totWLcrn
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CJuunds jtw
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LG                     13
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-
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<3 '
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tT M
m r«Biidupv from IJi* grsundnus r tsp ■nil h* f*d tn 1i ¥■ *1 c-tfr
as th" Es«n-i Then* anliTiMti *iln >+■«
frusnda |C<4¥" Hr*'Lailt K^''-T| IiifdBr C lfAklA ilhfS SildsH grBBV.I ■hLrli, kilt i! jL*.LBd
4
r I«h h* uhULsm-dlren *n *«* amn-uiURg III 4% CJ IEx I wde =■
1 ■ rUT BLirjill tiL  of ji r h if-fcLi u m. thL« nr«» h-pi. iicnq iaCUdrifl III km p*rrrh.Ug* -hiiriSsJ »• b«Lf>f r««-FTHti v*fptabLil«
T 60 -
possible cropping paU.rns ior the first ton years of ths
are discussed below:
I) Two-season (annual) rotation, indicated with the letter C, 
| This consists merely of cotton plus an amount reserved f6. vegetables. All the ground occupied by cotton during the first season is left fallow during the second since, a  men-
B
tioned, with the varieties and techniques presently employ it cannot be freed in time for a second crop. Since vegetal!
(would be destined mainly for export to Europe, they must
ripen in the winter-spring period. Thus they must be so-*:
during a period which overlaps the two local seasons, whic: makes it difficult to plant any other crop.
2)     Four-season (two-yearly) rotation - indicated with the letter A. The part not represented by vegetables has only tobacco during the two seasons of the first year and by maize and fallow respectively in the first and second seasons of the second year. This pattern provides for the intense cultiva tion of tobacco while at the same time satisfying certain essential technical and functional needs such as:
alternating tobacco with another suitable crop
vear «   h*cco production during both seasons of the
to
Land on which maize is Breiu.
cond year is fallowed duri "" the first 3eason the se~
least during an initial pJrsecond seaaon because - at doubtful whether the reqm°ed °Perati°n of farms - it is second crop on what amounts 7°^ C°Uld be donc to groW * 
total cultivated area. 3)      Six-season (three-yearly)
° SOrr“-*thin  over 45% of the
g
B.     This     rotation     combines     tou’c     '     indicated     with     the     letter
follow tobacco X ~
tu ZtOn- The pattern *«• tobacco may follo ® ?  -hould not
tt  n
With this pattern, in the second 
alter the maize grown in the ft* r th* grOu^^ •
COtt°n*
ready explained in the case ofR * * °n, f
ea
or  ‘ 3 Ieft falIoW
r eason al* ' Suic« the thirdyear of the rotation is occupied only by cotton (apart from the usual vegetables), only 30% of the cultivated area will be cropped in the second season.
In Table 11 cropping patterns A and B arc accompanied by others marked Al and Bl. The latter differ from the former
only inasmuch as the maize crop provided for in the fiTBt season of the second year is replaced by groundnuts.
Though the single-crop profitability and the marketing studies (see paras. 3. 4 and 3. 5) show that it is more worthwhile to grow maize than groundnuts; groundnuts could prove interesting if the hay derived therefrom were used to feed livestock. In this case a certain quantity of fodder (alfalfa and Sudan grass) would have to be grown on an area equal to 2% of that under groundnuts (see below, para. 3. 7), This fodder area is not explicitly shown un
der cropping patterns Al and Bl in the table in question but is considered as being included in that reserved for vegetables (with repeated occupation equal to 0. 9% of the total cropped area in Pattern Al and 0. 6% in Pattern Bl),
The cropping patterns mentioned represent standard models which can of course be slotted together in various proportions to provide different combinations, the many aspects of which (technical and economic) will be discussed in the Final Report.
As already mentioned in the paragraph on soils (1.. the spe
cific investigations and studies carried out to date in this sector have not so far provided data which add very much to the rather general outline provided in the FAO study. Hence, apart from the existence of non-arablo saline, alkaline or rocky areas which must be pinpointed, it must also be~ as certainT^^vh ether or not there is any physical or chemical variation in the soils which is so marked as to exclude the cultivation of one or other of the crops classed as possible and worthwhile. It is however certain that there will be variations such as to counsel choice of one
crop rather than another or at least to emphasize the advisability of adopting a particular method of crop care. At the moment, no precise indications can be given but when the Final Report is sub mitted the various rotation models will be tied in with the capa bilities of the main types of soil whose features and distribution 
by then be known.. 62 -
be subject to variation in the not too distant future:
on     the     basis     of     additional     technical     and     experimental     re
fiU  ts
]
which    will    permit    a    wider    range    of    possible    crops    to    be    con- sidercd and provide a more perfect knowledge of the techni
ques to be used
on the basis of improvements in the capacity of the local
farmers and in the techniques adopted, which will ensure
that the recommended practices are more closely adhered 
to and that the means available are put to better use
on    the    basis    of    possible    developments    in    the    market    conditions which may indicate new crops to be grown.
As a result of these factors it is to be expected that not only will the range of possible crops be increased but that the intensity of the cropping patterns will increase likewise, i. c. the proportion of land occupied in the second season of the year.
It has been assumed that, by the end of the 10-year period the cropping patterns may undergo considerable evolution, with an appreciable increase in the area on which more than one crop
90% of the total cultivated area would be bearu, ned out- Thus
8 a s1  seeencnond c    a_____r_op. _____- 63 -
Similarly# in case of models B and BI, it could be possible
to have at least half the area occupied by cotton in the first sea son of the third year bearing a second crop* In this case at least 75% of the total cultivated area would thus be carrying two crops.
In the initial phase of settlement - taken as being 15 years - two cropping patterns are suggested depending whether Afar or High land families are involved* In both cases the guiding principles followed were:
Ensure the presence of a high income cash crop, the cultiva tion of which isjyithin the^capabilities.of^theJ^Ji  family, with dLe technical as sistance (1)
Provide a suitable crop rotation which ensures that the main crop (cash crop) provides the best yield* Other crops have been introduced, also for rotation purposes.
6
Allow    a    sufficient    area    to    a    cereal    crop    which    will    be    entirely or mainly for home consumption by the farming family.
In Table 12 cropping pattern A for the first period (1st to 15th year) is for the Afars, and pattern B for the Highlanders.
Mode] A is a ten-season (five-year) rotation based on tobacco, groundnuts, and maize alternating with fallow, Model B is an eight-season (four-year) rotation with tobacco, beans and maize alternating with fallow. Model B gives a slightly better return than Model A because of the higher proportion of tobacco.
1 he only crop grown in the second season is tobacco, and even in this case its distribution through the two growing seasons d! the year derives from the need to keep the curing plant as fully occu pied as possible and to ensure the best labor distribution.
For the Highlanders, the beans have been introduced instead of groundnuts since farmers are well used to this crop which forms a. not inconsiderjible part of their basic diet^
(i) In this respect, tobacco has been chosen rather than cotton because of its higher returns (see IV-2 )cropping PATTERNS per settlers
(in
period
lit Year
- XeLSSMJS
. Tobacco
. 2nd Seaton,
, Tobacco
2-d Y«w
- let Season
Peanuts
Bear.s
•    2nd Season
. Fallow
M.Yai
•    lot Sensor.
JkUiee
» Beans
*   ^®jLSeason_
♦ Fallow
Ye*r
•    l?5_S«ason
Peanut ■
. Maine
- 2nd Season
a♦                    1
J
1
?
1
1
1
Fallow
HkJLejr
■ lf5_Seaepn
♦ Maize
. Fallow
0
re s ’ >y
, *0'
Pr"£2rtJ0n qL£L2 Pl by Season
- l_st_§ea»on
» Tobacco
« Peanuts
♦ Be an a
Maiae
- ^LSejeon.
. Tobacco
-\
•*z
1
1
1 0 -
<u
'l//
r.
1 • .
’ Zig-
A 8 ' Afar
B « Highlander*
AB « Common for 2nd period.
-   in cropping pattam A each section of tbs five-year rotation w i
-    in cropping pattern B each faction of the fonr-year rotation * *’ 0<>0 M.m
• in cropping  pattern AB each a  action of the three-year rotation ' °°C "**-rn
- individual farm unite alJ measure 2 ha with the addition of 5Oo 
W ’11 *** 6 u,
aq
M.m
the rotation for all model# and of 1, 000 aq. m of fodder out of rotatj f°r **<*tabl
farms.
U ° r<*r iu»t »k’“ °ut of5 H
Both mod el s provide for the presence of a small family vegetable lot  (500 sq. m) over and above the basic farm unit (2 ha). Model
A for the Afar also provides for 1, 000 sq. m over and above the area of the farm unit for the permanent cultivation of fodder (al falfa and Sudan grass) for feeding two head of cattle per family. 
-These animals will also henefit from groundnut hay. 
%
To summarize, during the first period of project activity, the
<■ annual area Cultivated per farm unit under the two cropping patterns ^~double-cropped areas included - breaks down as follows:
I- 5 S /V
to, rr<i k
Tobacco (in two seasons) Groundnuts
Beans
Maize
Fodder (in two seasons on land out side the farm units and not forming part of the rotation)
Vegetables (as above)
Total area cultivated annually
of which: in first season
in second season
Model A sq. m
8, 000
3, 000       < f      4-
|
8, 000
2, 000
1, 000
Model B sq. m
10,000
-
10.000
5, 000
1,000
27, DOO 21,500
<7
•A
5,500
26, 000
20, 500
5,500
**    '------ -
'  appears reasonable to  assume that after 15  years (namely,  in the second  period  of the project from the 16th  to  the 30th  years) the Afar farmers will have acquired  sufficient skill to  obtain  the same returns as the Highlanders.
The convergence of the two settlements' cropping patterns answers * social requirement (see below, section 4), Therefore, in the second period a single cropping pattern (indicated by the letters A B) will be suitable. This is a six-season (three*year) rotation Wlth tobacco as the main cash crop, beans as the second (with 
P  t of the harvest being consumed at home) and maize as the
ar- 66 -
cereal for home consumption. Groundnuts will have di
and so will the farm-raised cattle (on the assumption that^^*'’ interim the Afar dietary habits will have come into lino of the Highlanders). Therefore, the areas of land (outside nOlt farm unit and out of rotation) for the production of fodder * have disappeared. The vegetable plots for supplying the fa^ kitchen will however continue in existence.
The single model cropping pattern envisaged for the second part of the project for the settlers will thus involve the following areas cultivated annually per farm unit:
Tobacco (double-cropped areas)
Beans
Maize
Vegetables (double-cropped areas on lots outside the farm unit and outside the ro
tation)
Total    area    cropped    annually    of    which: in the first season
in the second season
With fl. 
Model AB
sq. m
1 3, 334
6,667
6, 667
1. 000 27, 670 (rounddl
20, 500 7, 170 (roundeq
In the changeover from the first to the second periods, the Afar
units will increase the annual area under tobacco from 8, 000 to 
13, 000 sq. m. The amount of land cropped twice in onc year wiU
also increase: from 20 to 33. 3%. The corresponding figures in 
the case of the Highlanders are 10.000 and 13, J00 sq. m and 2$
and  33.  3%.  In  addition  it ls expected  that there will be impr°*e* 
ments in unit yields and in quality (
see  III-8 )
Naturally, it will be appreciated that
,     *1,
Above
to the problem. For this reason it
<h. 
< •
X” ,"*UOn‘ X
° OUr
a PPr
to dwell on details such as, for example th thou^   advisab 
ht
c
transition from one cropping pattern to another***08 °* gra<lual stockraising in the project area will be conaide’ BeIow (Para* 
an exception to the treatment followed ftir
well experimented crops are taken into account rhoicc* wherein onbf been sufficiently tried in the Awash Valley condj lives*ock has hand, the importance of their activity may well i/0'8
and livestock has therefore been considered i  thi^^ excePtioC
Thifi rePreSCD f the ot^er
n
re P,jrt- 67 -
3  7 STOCK-BREEDING
. ? I Qenera.l Prospects for Stock-breeding in the Project Area
a ) Climatic Conditions
Temperatures, solar radiation, air humidity and winds in 
the Area are such that no serious problems arise for stock-
breeding of tropical and sub-tropical origin. In particular, 
the relation between temperature and absolute humidity of
the animal is never so high as to really affect the normal
physiologic functions - namely the body temperature - and 
the production in these strains.
There      is      no      doubt      that      certain      practical      arrangements,      such as     the     erection     of     shelters     protecting     the     animals     from     solar radiation    and    the    supply    of    feed    at    night    when    the    heat    is    less intense,       will       facilitate       the       thermoregulation       and       assimilation functions, and therefore have a positive effect on productions
The climatic conditions recorded restrict the introduction of original livestock from the temperate areas: however, this possibility is not to be excluded, due to its contribution to productivity. Through suitable investigations, it must be established wether animal strains of temperate areas
can be adapted to the Area or whether it is preferable to 
-introduce, in the local animals strains, some blood from breeds in the temperate zones, and in what proportions.
h) Present Livestock
The livestock raised at present is the result of selection obtained from a natural environment unsuitable tojiigh pro-
^B-Elivity_due mainly to the high percentage of cellulose and lignin in the natural forage during many months of the year.
Gattie: They belong to the Sanga type; they have an extreme ly good heat tolerance and can recover their weight as soon as vegetation growth is resumed, whereas young subjects grow slowly and have a low milk production capacity. The- 68 -
phenotypical variation is not marked, either in the meat
yield or in milk production (specially concerning the uddt. 
It can be anticipated that the policy of selection in order t0
improve the yields can only be brought about very slowly.
Sheep: the breed raised has low milk and meat production 
capacities. Before replacing the present sheep, tests must
be conducted as it will be recalled that the breeds of this
species cannot easily be adapted to new environments.
Goats:    the    goats    do    not    appear    to    have    marked    productive capacities, specially for milk.
Camels:    they    are    usually    light    weight    animals,    used    for    the transportation of moderate loads and for milk production.
In general, it seems that between environment - climate and natural environment - and animals there is unbalance, to the detriment of the latter; however there may be limitating factors, such as periodical and prolonged periods of drought
ch act as negative selective factors for genotypes having 
eT.rC
productive capacities. It is also to be recall-
m>v  conf1 recdlng fwhich is probably  high  in  herds and  flocks
ductive chart V° the deleriorat‘°n  constitutional and  pro-
« 
stock-breedinj; bas.H ‘
<«> —in. .h.t .be
** nOt the most suitable {or
cultivatedJ
orage
There1          °      Uti^8at^n          of      great      masses      of
basic    material    for    stock^0***    **    cannot      he    regarded    as"    the
ed
 area. As the selection 
*° be 9et Up in lllC irrig3t'
v cry slow process, their *   Present animals would be a
C
Feed Stuffs
t  the climatic a   •
o
nri
exp rim’*“’o,H ir ?
re placement must be considered. p   ion8' * ^t, 
various
‘
different kinds
millet, elephant grass. e(1'’ °' ’° «^rn  f *
bersim.      to      forage      gras         8C’      fr°^      tr      1      Production      of
* and
rP
UCh 33 ,he              Oxtail millet.- 69 -
This     factor     creates     a     technical     basis     favorable     to     every     type of stock-breeding, even the most specialized.
d)      Health Problems
Protection against infectious diseases such as rinderpest, contagious bovine pleuropneumonia, foot and mouth disease, possible anthrax and black leg, etc. mainly constitute a problem of organization of the veterinary service and of availability of immunization, which should not pose over whelming difficulties, The problem of protection against
tick borne diseases and from parasites is more complex as
it is necessary to know their present incidence in order to stipulate the required programs of direct and indirect pro phylactic methods.
e)      Human Skills
Raising stock of high produclive capacity requires a specific technical policy on the part of the employer and efficient personnel to manage the livestock. Suitable technical as sistance must be provided, in order to implement stock- breeding programs.
f)       Marketing
The prices of animal production constitute, on a medium
term basis, a partially restricting factor in the stock-breed
ing programs.
The cost of meat production in the irrigated areas is pro bably superior to that of the ranges. The demand for quality meat is not yet large enough to necessitate a highly specialized production, and for hygienic reasons the European markets are not open to these productions.
Milk production shows interesting prospects for on the spot consumption for the settlers, and for its transportation to even distant inhabitated areas (all along the axis of the Awash, and even a  far as Addis Ababa, once the area is linked with 
B
good roads) and also for the production of butter and other milk products.. 70 -
c ) Conclusion i*
The general prospects of stock-breeding in the irrigated 
areas seem to be basically favorable from a technical vif, 
point provided the various solutions are studied at an 
experimental level. The current experimental programs a. 
the Melka Merer center should therefore be completed.
Certain basic types of stock-breeding and their economic
possibilities will be examined in the present report. Further
studies and tests should be performed in order to determise
the place that the stock-breeding units should occupy or* 
the various types of farms. A recommended cxpcrimcaUticr
program will be submitted at a later stage in the study.
'• *• Possible Types of Stock- breeding
There arc many types of breeding that can be set up in t *5
gated area, both in relation to the species and breeds an
various production trends, and to the type of stock-breeding 
enterprise
veryTmporu’J^ 'maU "heCp and goat brccdin8  units can b® the forage avaikblcTd  farrncr8, in vicw of thc utilization  of
however, require special
tbcir utilization docfl not’
Regarding the .peck, to be j
cattle. The breed, to be ra ** °PlCd’ tl,ia “‘udy is limited to “ ha, been .aid that the San"10'1 ‘hC9e units can be numerous the starting element., the ' "°W prescnt- « n be considered 
a
on the production trcnd(( to *et‘°  °  ‘
nf
hc  breeds also depends
point .. only *n ...umption, Cv^°*cd- The^ore. the starting unuer.a l> acquired concerning catti U“in8 ‘he experience
i» required in order to be made. 
,h <»t an ‘he vaHditactiv,t>
. .. ,
of the assumption to
milk or meat pro to determine whether priority will be given to
It is imp° ‘
r an  ductionB-. this alternative will be examined u-Concerning the breeding sector in the different types of enter prises, it is to be noted that it will always assume an '’industrial character. based on a strict organization of the varioq, operations in order to keep the costs down . This is valid for Urge and medium size enterprises wh’ich will be formed and also for the settle rs.
The fundamental studies which should be carried out will there fore concern the breeding of cattle of the industrial type examin ing the various prospects and aspects, first generally, and then in the context of the cropping patterns of the large and medium enterprises, and of the settlers.
3. 7. 3     Analysis! of Cattle Raising for Milk and Meat Production a) A * sumption* -
Z
I) It is envisaged that cattle raising will .start with the
purchase of heifers of the local Sang* type, ready to 
calve, and of balls of the BorAn breed (or other zebu 
breed* with good rrfik-product ng capacity) to upgrade
the Sanga cattle.
2) Reproduction and production parameters
- Age of cowfi at first calving 43 months
Calving interval: 14 months (367’ of cows calvtag in the year)
Age of cows at last calving; 3 years and 3 month a Milk production
cowi;
Vi
Boran
3/i
Bor«
n
V8 Boran
600 kg per lactation;
900kg per lactation;
11 £00 kg per lactation;
I, 5004 kg per lactation;
516 per year; 150 to calf, 774  per  year:  150  to  eaLf,
1,032  per  year:  ISO  to  calf. I, 290 per year: 150 to calf.
166 at disposal
624  at  <h*poaal
SA2 at dlapoaal
1.140 at di apo •»!7
. 72 •
Weight of Animals:                Sanga cows
1/2 Boran cows
300 kg 
no k.
3/4 Boran COWS
7/8 Boran cows
Boran bulls
340 kg
360 kg
600 <g
Steers (36 months)
400 kg
Steers (24 months)
Calves (male, 12  )
M
Heifers 48 months
Heifers 36 months
300 kg
175 kg
360 kg 310
Heifers 24 months
Calves (females,
1 2 months) I 35 c annual death rate of growing cattle has been cal-
prV* u* °n avcpa8 - For cows a death rate of
225
c
a® been c calculated (animals not used for slaughter
4) Ahem ratio of 7/8 Boran bloodstock has been reached, the annual replacement quota of cows has been fixed at
b '       1 yPlc*l CompogiUon of j|cr<]
*rr raiacd. the male, i .u ’ In l,,e CA“c °“<Hned, all the c * to 48 month,. The cow° *** of i6 nion,h“« ,hc femal«» 
»• «lluatr.Mcd    Annex TaiJ.n
ln
110 ^ * k*8"’ °n Unit8 °( * °°
animal, with incrca.in/*™ proK  ’">vcly replaced by 
re
ing-up may be con.idered rCen,a8C8 of Boran blood. Grad- when all the cow, will h*. *ch,Oved from the 19th year.
H  Boran blood or more.
feeding Requirement,
The feeding requirement, have Iw..
‘ of the F. U. (feed unit,) ,y„eni . calcul*»*d on the bas»« average requirement, over the va*W,CX 1‘,ble BZ shows th^ to the level of production attained PCr,ods’ according animal, being raiacd are fixed i  ouch0 rct,u'rernents of thC
tee the maximum possible growth. p * manner a« to guran
n
o
1 year, it ia envisaged that only 1 So 
be given, and that weaning to dry feed wm'0*'* milk wiU as possible.
calves of 0 to occur soon 
J- 73 .
In calculating the rations, on the basis of the fodder avaiUbte
it has been estimated, from instance to instance, whether
the digestible protein requirements were satisfied. Like
wise an examination has been made of the dry matter content
in the rations. It is estimated, in this context, that inder
prevailing conditions, the cattle cannot absorbs ration with 
a higher dry matter contentthan 2. 6-2. 8f» of their weight
For cows, it is therefore considered that, when they exceed 
an output of about 5 kg of milk, it is necessary to have re
course to concentrates to reduce the volume of the ration. 
Annex Table B3shows. for the various periods, the conversion 
coefficients for the various categories of animals into Animal
Units (1 A. U. = I cow).
d) Fodder and Byproducts of Crops - Feed Values and Costs
of Production
Alfalfa    and    Sudan    grass    are    the    only    types    of    fodder    conside red.
Alfalfa has already shown that it can achieve excellent pro duction results in the specific environment of the Project Area. Most likely there is no other grass which can give constantly an equal mass of (odder with a high protein con tent. Lf other forage grasses should be produced for rota tor ial needs ( Be r seem, Hcdysarum coronarium. etc.), their nutritive values do not basically vary from those of alfaLfa. Nor do the F. U. costs of the various leguminous grasses vary greatly.
Sudan grass has been considered, since it has already been tested with good results. It provides an excellent fodder, whether consumed fresh or as hay, or even as ensilage. Experimentation could indicate whether other forage grasses could provide larger feed masses than Sudan grass.
Regarding crop byproducts* groundnut foliage has bee., c or. sidcred. The residual parts of maize and beans -a.e no. 
been considered, although these could also make a con., it - tion.In any casc.it has been considered that natural rangeh^
be available (on the Alledeghi Plains) to raise cattle fora
period of about 6 months a year. It is probable that in the
months when growth occurs in the natural rangeland pasture
this can provide as much nutrition as the animals requ.:
Annex  TablcB4  shows the outputs and  the feed  values assumed for each  fodder type,  as wel1 as the relative costs of produc- tion of the F. U.
) Rationing Schemes
Various rationing schemes have been analysed bearing in mind the dual purpose of: 1) fully meeting the animals' needs with the least possible use of concentrates; and 2) reducing to the utmost the cost of feeding.
Two basic plans have been compared:
Plan:
Rationing based on the supply of:
2/3 Sudan gra88,  f which 2/3 fresh and l/3 hay 
o
Plan.
1/3 alfalfa, of which 2/3 fresh and I/3 hay. Rationing ba cd on the supply of:
8
2/3 groundnut foliage
$ i,i su<,“ (,"ah) and
requlremcM,         o'lhZ'ln         adttplati°n.         enable         lhe         fondlng 
by the fodder. 
In the fir.t plan, the average the F. U. (1968) i. Eth. $ o  3
In bn.h 
exceed a daily output of 5 |2 
the ration, even « «Uge.lible p Xn ‘°
r
'° »’ "'t, animal feed when the c
“** VOlUmC P lc n requirements are attan
Eth. $ 0. 025, lor the second pl»n .l*' rale#- the cost is
O   3 fo C°“ (™rket rates) of
and Eth. $ 0. 012 respectively. jt L‘ fl
8ure  are Eth. $ 0. 01 6
s
was worthwhile. 
establish immediately whether usinB‘ thcrcfore possible to 
« r°undnut by-products- 75 -
In  the plan  under examination,  the coat of feeding  ocIy fodder is i" fact double the cost of a ration  comprise? ' groundnut hay and i/3 fodder.
f)       Labor and Health Costa
Labor costs have been fixed assuming that every group of
100 cows and relative young will require: 1) one head eattic
man; 2) one cattle hand every 10 cows: one hand every 70 calves
The health costs have been fixed at Eth. $ J per head per annum.
g)      investments and iMaintenance Costs
The initial investment costs arc set out in Annex Table 5B
Two plans have been advanced: the first one involves a typxaJ
Unit as illustrated in Annex Tabic IB, composed of 4 bulls. 
100 cows and all the calves produced. The other one is a
Uhit comprising 4 bulls. 100 cows, all the heifers produced, 
but with all the male calves sold off at the age of 1 year.
Both plans provide for the cost of equipping a ranch, in which 
the calves are raised for a period of 6 months a year.
Annual maintenance ha® been roughly estimated. For
restocking , only the expenditure for bulls has been con
sidered the purchase of one per year being envisaged for every 
100 cows, after the 4th year of setting up the unit.
Productive Trend and Economic Returns
The first plan (milk and meat production) provides for a Unit
in which all the heifers are raised up to the age of the first
calving. They are then used to replace the below-quality cows, 
and when possible (especially after the 20th year) they ar* 
as breeders or for slaughter. Male calves are maintained until
l hty are 36 months old. and then sold for slaughter.
The second  plan  (milk  and,  to  a lesser extent,  meat producao.J Provides for the male calves being  sold  when  they  reach  t..e age of 1  year, all other aspects remaining unchanged.I
- 76 -
The keeping of calves to this age is envisaged, should the
cows require the presence of the calf during milking.
As also pointed out. in both plans and in order to reduce cost, 
as far as possible, it is envisaged that all the offspring area
grate for a period of six months a year on the Alledeghi Pi4cj
The price of milk  is fixed  at Eth.  $  0.  37  per kg,  on  the asso^. tion  that the milk  produced  is all consumed  in  the Project Am (see Annex A).
The prices of liveweight meat have been taken as Eth. S 0.4-
for bulls. Eth. $ 0. 35 for cows, and Eth. $ 0. 50 for calves of
the various categories. The price of heifers - possibly for
a* breeders - equals that of animals for slaughter.
The   value   of   the   manure   is   fixed   on   the   basis   of   the   content   of fertilizing matter.
On  the basis of available data it iB therefore possible to  exam* 
cost. 
awi returni in thc tWQ plans Anncx Tabl<js
e
nimal Units present, thc feeding requirements and the RC  rLrCn’ annual CO8t8 for lh° various periods. Annex 
Ta b?
rc»t>ccti-.r 9B&*vean
a
rvapccuvc returns.
 indication of thc physical outputs and 
Annex Table 1£B vive. . 
returns, the costs and th 
.k.
It is seen that
1) 'rhe "milk and meat -
and the benefits for both plans.
ProdUclion.. 8olut on ,s iesg prof,tabk
rCault9 of tho investments,
£
>’0
than the "milk a„d to, solution. The rate of for market a d 
n    rc<l rM
case    it    is    24    .nd      2,    h
’^‘‘vcly. 
factors available to
r Product, *Ppeara best to use the
.
Sscr          extent      meat      production11 return in the first case is 22_and 2®
----------
It theIhf>ref7'*‘V’:,y- In the second
2)
C “On
rather than meat.
The economic result, obtain,
of considerable inle  Ml n"*/ *‘‘h the8c tWo plans arC „
solutions could be found ft>r
up caU.c firm? X'l^eT "’ XT.' g” thc results obtained from
C
0
that more advantag^ Cr °Pping patterns.
|0- 77 -
integration with the Alledeghi Plains
The land reclamation of the Molta Sadi and Armbara district! will
modify the traditional patterns of life of the local pastoralist
population. The problems arising regard:
a )       The loss of some 20, 000 ha of range lands by the nomads;
b)          The    loss    of    the    watering    points    on    the    Awash    River,    for    both domestic and livestock purposes:
c )           The     integration     of     the     new     agricultural     set-up     with     the     natural resources of the surrounding areas.
Part of the present Afar population (estimated as 1,000-1,200 family units) will find employment in agriculture as settlers And Laborers. but a certain proportion of the population will continue in traditional pastoral activity. It has been estimated thar about 600 families will be settled and that 400-600 families will continue to carry on their pastoral activities, There is no doubt that alter native solutions should be provided for this group of herders for the loss of Lhc range lands and water facilities created by the irri gation scheme.
Furthermore, it i» loreeeeable that il cattle
part ol them - dry «« and oH.prin, -
range lands for approximately 6 mon s
reduce    the    coat    ol    feeding    and    the    exten.ton    of       the dcr crops.
h . MIUJ»|
„ d„ „ under fod-
From what has been said it follows that it in what way to achieve the full
of the area, and in particular
--j.jjjary to examine
rangeland resources
plains,
The     ARedeghi     Plains     extend     from     the     ridge     ^^“hills     of     U»e of the Melka Sadi and Amibara districts o
Assebot Mountain further east.
and the ore^en^
The plains are covered with gras* °f
condition of the range can be consider expioited only in excellent, due to the fact that the plains ar runOff in locaht-
v aryio8 fT°m 6°°^ °
the rainy periods, when water is e d ponds.
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10- 79 *
3.8
PROCESSING industries
The availability of certain agricultural product® give ri><? to the problem as to whether or not it is of advantage to set up proce®j. ing industries on the spot. Generally speaking, there exist favour able factors for processing within the project area: the advisability of fast collecting, grading, and preserving the various crop®, especially those intended for export; of processing the products intended for supplying the irrigation district; of making fuller use of by-products, waste, etc. ; of having direct influence on selling prices; and of providing a useful addition to the area's general economy. On the other hand, there could arise less favourable factors: the economic size of a processing industry, 
the difficulty of obtaining on site certain industrial service®, etc
Taking into account the possible alternative cropping patterns set out above, some considerations regarding the advisability of set ting up the following industries arc given below: cotton ginning mills; tobacco drying plants; seed-oil mills; collection, conserva tion and processing of vegetables and fruiu>cere*l mills; slaughter* ing of cattle; and milk processing, A more detailed study of the processing industries which appear suitable for the project area
will be dealt with in the later stages of the study.
J. 9. 1     Cotton Ginning
Only one ginnery operates at present in the general area of the Project: that at Tendaho, belonging to T. P. S. C, However, the owners of a ginnery located at Addis Ababa have for some time
Cen  considering the possibility of setting up another plant in the Middle Awa h (I),
s
The reason is that all the cotton ginned in Addis Ababa comes from the Awash valley. The owners of the ginnery think that it would be advantageous to process the cotton on site and transport the fibre to Addis Ababa and the seed to Asiac ex- P °rt) and/or Addis Ababa (oil mill) rather than transport the
8Cedcott n to Addis Ababa, both to save on transport costs anc
0
° avoid Loss in quality, due to the present state oi the and  roads.According to the alternative cropping patterns, and thus t  a. 
o
various levels of accdcotton output, it is possible to set up  „. 
0
more plants consisting of one or more batteries, made up of 3, and one baling ./Vs a rule, each battery should produce fi ard bales o: lint per hour (480 lbs equal to 218 kg). Thus, a ncry of the minimum economic size (one battery) would have a theoretical capacity of more than 40 tons/day equal to about 110: of seedcotton (three shifts of eight hours). Considering that a gh ncry is in full or practically full operation for about 5 months/frz November 10 March, for the harvesting calendar of the Middle Awash), the maximum productive capacity for that period would amount to about 5.000 tons if three shifts were worked (13,5001: 14.000 tons of cottonseed) and to about 3, 300 tons, if two shifts
were worked (about 9, 000 tons of cottonseed).
Tubl <. u B r y 1 n£ P l an t ®
Drying plant, for tobacco arc without doubt neccuS'itl jn(j Project Area. This is what farmers are doing at prua ^ nop  r
O
ol
the administration of the State Monopoly suggests. T c r3C-
grades and fixe, prices of tobacco after the first curing ^inanCial
tically only the small farmers, on account of their am-1
capacity, deliver to the Monopoly the green leaf).
A     curing     plant    will    have     to       be     technically     equipped     to     gra^*-*. procrdh and pack the tobacco leave® collected.
cur*
100 ql® per day of fr<*ah leaf. C
the production of dry baled leaf is 20 ql®. tions varies according to the harvesting condition®, etc.
A minimum cconnlo^r)iymic iiXe
_______- _
■ ■     - '>n“dcre<* that cnpable of treatinf
” C*^lati
n  an average l
■ The period of full op*rJ
calendar, to climatic
fl
oae  of 80*'
The co«t® of investment and operation, adopted in the present P limlnary phase, have been estimated an the Uaai® of the cXPer’L^h acquired by the Tobacco Monopoly and by the farmei^in the A^3 Valley,
I" L*- Bl
g
 3 ^erd-oil Mills.
Two unfavorable factors would seem to advise against the settina up of an oilmill in the irrigation district: the unpromising post}, bilities of export and the decentralization of a plant which requires a minimum of industrial services (available only in the areas where other industries are operating), which would not be economically worthwhile creating locally.
Apart from this, an oilmill of economic dimensions treating cot ton seeds should have a capacity for processing 60 tons of seed m 24 hours and work for 280 days a year. The annual capacity would thus be 16s 800 tons.
Bearing in mind the alternative cropping patterns (see above, H. para 3.6) only in two hypotheses (B and B’) would the output of cotton seeds ensure that level of supply. In the other hypotheses, however, there would be the possibility of extracting oil from cot ton and groundnut seeds in the same plant.
The opportunity of installing an oilmill in the area will be studied in the later stages of the study.
This is an indispensable activity in the area. A vegetable centre
w ith refrigeration plant and a department for processing the pro ducts would enable:
the collection and grading by types, and uniform and homo geneous quality of the various products, improving their ap pearance according to the requirements of the market;
lhe staggering, when necessary, of export consignments,
the utilization of more suitable packings, with criteria o. 
®tandardization, thus ensuring greater economy io purchasing,1
• 82 -
the utilization  for processing  of the producer come up  to  export requirements,  or which  are direct demand;
the more economical employment of means of transport b using rational loads.
it it thus advisable to create a common organization for such services .and consequently provide coordination between product; and exports (1
The ’centre" could consist of a structure for pre-processing, refrigeration, conservation and packing products to be marketed fresh and of a plant for the production of fruit juices, jams and canned vegetables (if found economically justifiable).
S whic* do      in 
no:
The     first     structure     should     be     equipped     with     a     pre-refrigeration plant,     a     freezing     plant     (with     refrigeration     chambers)     and     an     air- conditioned work room.
The dimensions and the capacity of these plants should be deter inc the expected average stocks and rates of supply of t <
various products.
already de.eribed, il i»
A e;:.:t;;x':?Mnt:  Xu
, h
KC,“‘ivc M **"
hour7p'r day." P'’"’ eOuld
1       hat ,ea8on> from 8 <« 10  "I”’’ ’. ,
Benefits and costs of surh • .
of the Study. For the time t  *
P    ha11 bc ana*y««d at later s‘ *
a
7  ‘o such centre.
0) Cooperation can also take the forrn
exporters, on indications by fOr<. * Su8gestions mads by regarding the type and character!sti buy<:rB* to ‘he growers
farm, or before deliverv * ®* 
n
cro P Prices have been taken 
in demand. 
C>  the products mofil- R3 -
the supply of the irrigation district's population, estimated £,0 000 it appears possible to set up a mill for cereals, on 
assumption that small family mills will not be employed.
In this case the capacity of the mill, bearing in mind the expect ed total consumption of Hour (about 9. 500 tons/year), should b- around 60 tons/day of cereals, equivalent to about 18,000 tons per year (i).
It is not certain that the irrigation area can supply all the cereals necessary and if the remaining amount would have to be obtained on the Addis Ababa market the profitability of the mill would not be assured.
3. &  6 Slaughter House
r
Th. future population of th. irrigation area hM
w require about 1.600 ton. of meat per annum (1 
.... weight, on the ba.i. of 27 kg per capita, about equal W
present per capita consumption at national level).
On the assumption that all the meat will be boughtjrom.one »Uug
ter     house,     this     could     have     a     capacity     of     ^ou*     ’     earcaM       at     160     kg}, cattle per year (assuming the average weig
In     the     present     scheme,     it     is     assumed,     in     a     first
that all the beef will be purchased from the slaug te ‘ with 60% of the lamb and mutton and goat's other types of meat (poultry, camel, game). * ro>50 head of meat would be slightly under 1,000 tons, equiva e °f cattle, i.  . 25 head per day for 250 day®.
* the
c
On the bagj
1S  °f a Per capita consumption of 155-160 kg/year of flour c
and appi 5U1V
and of an average rate of extraction of 75%
y*ng an average rate for plant utilization of 70%.1
- 84 -
The size of the slaughter house would be average to small - of
type still found in the country generally - thus setting a limit:/ mechanization of the installations and to the integral utilization 
of the by-products.
A slaughter house will be considered part of the project, only in th* event that livestock is part of the industrial farm’s output.
3. 8. 7. Milk Processing
«ilk. '^lenVtrrjJoton /flhOUl/d ***'     ’ i0Q ton*/year (7 hr. day x 360). The
hai  been estimated /^turc population in the irrigation area
53 Htres/year per lr ‘ «etting up a
morc ^an half this level (on the basu
** * 
there appears to be no advaDUj!
P CCBBln8industry in this sector.- 85 -
39
alternative supply
The preceding paragraph has detailed the demand and price u- tuation for all the crops considered in the first phase and to br considered in the second phase. A full marketing study should also investigate supply conditions for the crops under considera- tion, elsewhere in the country. If other areas arc better placed 
than the Melka-Sadi Amibara project to satisfy the domestic and external demand of a crop and if such demand has a quantity limit, than cultivating such crop in the project area may be questionable. If other areas are better placed than the project
area to cultivate a crop, but arc not likely to be developed for a number of years, the timing of production in such areas should be investigated, so as to provide for the introduction of an alternative crop in the project area later in the life the project.
For the crops examined in the first phase, tobacco (Virginia) is unlikely to find an area of alternative supply, except perhaps in the Awash Valley itself, but as the oxgoxt,rp.arkeL.can.b<LJxalisti< cally considered unlimited, no ljmitation needs to be imposed on thir Crop. For cotton, on the other hand, there exist possibilities
of large-scale rain fed cultivation in North-Eastern Ethiopia. Con ditions in these areas will be carefully studied in the second phase of the study. A similar investigation will be carried out, for irri gated cotton, in the area around lake Margherita. It is unlikely, however, that there will arise a demand limitation for cotton pro duction (see Annex A), both because domestic demand is likely to grow faster than output in the next decades, and because exports
cotton appear feasible at present, based cn longer-staple fibre. Particularly adapted to irrigated farming.
Alternative areas of supply will also be investigated for nrulk, 
e abies and pulses production. The priorities expressed m the
®/69 - 1972/73 Five Year Development Plan will constitute a in the selection of alternative supply areas. As mentioned 
Ou » a study of crops grown in traditional farms will also be c *n-ied out.
iqf \-
- 86 -
3,10                  FARM SIZES
for th, purposes „f this repDr[ [he bas_c d „
ll.e dllocutwn o  about three quarters of the irrigation.,,?
t
th?; , 
“ cover -toui °r ab°i" “• heeJr.: ;;,* •
H« nV'.T'’"' °f ee'hXe 7* y
n.urUl . 
ft rms. These are girth
On  ft-ftstrisi lines, use ut.d.u
‘ ” m*ni,Sed with a high degree of enlrepr,,
1In<r:b' Under the same design, the remaining
XtHe™ , lrri«ation
'"ill be used for a program of
b
. 
nient            PJanne,d            f°r        precise        socio-economic        ends.        The
snm              el’ncs u«ed in computing the recommended sizes of
low T»rni
of the two types indicated are given be-
work      V*      ^boration      of      these      guidelines      will      be      part      of      the
to b  undertaken in later stages
e
o f this study.
a*Pcc3iording  *
<
le,is*on assigned to industria] farms should* 
2/3 rds H ° lntentions of the AVA, be divided up so that
farms and the”of about 10, 000 ha) is for large
5, 000 hai fr.>- ernauilnB l/3rd (equal to a total of about
mX?SUitib|- ft be handed o,,r tu sm.U « 
‘ aJ' ou"^-farmers.
Judgment on the most ■
and  managerial point ‘ i fOpriate farm size- from an  economy 
industrial farms- oi
vaew   w
‘  ouid indicate that only large
cd       to       the       project.       Smai/*1          5'       000          each          '       shouId          be          aj3sign
obvious advantages
blZps dn not appear as having
from the opportunity ofT^- ’.hoStT which would be derived farm managers. Jn any ™lrung a larger number of Ethiopia”
limit to the smaller si» 
°bvious lower Or upper eafUr— could be found.
In these circumstances, it is proposed to consider only l»W mdustnal farms for the purpose of judging the economic feasibility of the project; and to take into account the small^
size farms only from a financial
i^
po nl of yi
w
The     principles     followed     in     defining     the     dimensions     of     the
settlement unit; are based on considerations nf
, 
OI  income ana
j
of suitable soil-use. I hey a l*o con eider
a
.. 
suitably unifon ’.
1work calendar likely to fully absorb the availabiJ. labour provided by the settlers and the members J families, and the level of technical, entrr-,-,.- -
practical skills that the settlers may show j  rT’Lh 
• ,
n
their origin and training. On this basis, the land ‘° be 2 ha. both tn the c«e of.he Afea.th that of families. increased in both cases by 5DO so «, < & , d of family vegetables. In the case of the Afkr
of a further 1,000 Sq   m for the production Qf f ™
. 
being however, limited to the firHt 15 years of th life. 
Sr °Wing
years oi the project's- 89 -
4. SETTLEMENT
DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIAL FEATURES
A.      The Local Pastoralist Population (l)
The    area    is    inhabited    by    1,    000    -1,    200    families    (averaging 4.8 members each) belonging to the Afar (amhara - Ada!)
ethnic group.             The age-structure is approximately:
0 - 4 year a 5-9 years
=21% =   19%
10-14 years                  =  1 7%
] 5 and over
=
I
57%
43%
In  the first age-section  (0-14  years) boys account for almost 51%,  whilst in  the second  section  (15  and  over) men  are 49% of th e total.
The local population belongs to the large Debine and We ima
r
tribes and are organized in 7 Debine clans (2 of which also occupy areas outside the project) and 3 We'ima clans, im migrated since 1964.
Tribal ties are presently almost non existent, but the clan 
1S  still very strong: gracing and water rights arc attached to 
l h<_ clan, as well as defense from rival intruders; the authori- > of the clan chief, of the elders counsel and of the male as
sembly is very effective. The basic operating unit is general dr the kindred family, composed of few nuclear families (often
(1)
Data and * r
s       ln*°rrnation      are      based      on      information      collected      on the
labo/0*        thC           sociol°g’sts        of        the        FAO/UNDP        mission        col- p] , rahng with the AVA, Prof. Van Lier and Dr. Van dcr- 90 -
polygamic,       being       Muslim).       Against       this       group       organize       . 
ownership     of     cattle     is common).
individual (though grazing is made
individual     (though     grazing 
:t is     made     • 
The     Afar     of     the     area     have     been     mere     pastoralists     until     this decade:      their      seasonal      wandering      for      pasture      and      water      be. tween    the    right    bank    of    the    Awash    (8-9    months)    and    the    Al*, deghi      plains      (3-4      months),      forced      them      to      permanent      semi- nomadism.      This      trend      and      the      complete      ignorance      of      agri culture     emphasized     their     dependance     on     cattle     and     on     a     diet mainly     based     on     milk,     whilst     limiting     their     handicraft     almost exclusively     to     primitive     huts,     and     to     making     milking     pots. Their     only     marketable     produc     t-animal     ghee     -     helped     them     in getting     the     few     cotton     clothes     they     wear,     iron     spear-points, knives and guns and a little durra.
Cattle      meant      security,      which      could      occasionally      be      thread
ed     ay     overwhelming     natural     events
diseases), as well as by other men; ' “------------------------------------
Fear of loosir.i
A (as     drought     or     epidemic the latter danger ward-stn 
off by fighting and/or by keeping isolated. 
. ttl<_ made the Afar suspicious, isolated, and r k  Ta linKS with the surrounding population; it
th. A1„ „„. primitlve
ejuctant to resulted in
ljfe
In   the   60's   the   Afar   isolation   and   way   of   life   was   isuddenly11;'
set    by    the    intrusion    of    modern    and    powerful    actor
... men
machines      employed      in      Land      reclamation      and      irrigation, 
with    the    danger    of    loosing    their    traditional    pasture
Afar    reacted    by    asking    for    settlement
and    by    offering 
ai*M w y —  —’
. _ FaceC l 1- ands.
, hired
labor to the newcomers: thenc Scheme of the AV A.
e c am e the Pilot Settlemen
The Pilot Settlement Scheme (I), started in May 196*. 
has undergone through different phases and changes. I1 1 volved, up to November 196H, 67 Afar families; it will 5° absorb a total of about 240 families over 600 ha (2/3 «nder
(1) Information was given by the
Manage, of the Pilot Scheme- 91 -
cotton, 1/3 under maize). Although Very rccent a , operative, the Pilot Scheme has revealed s
factors which should be taken into considerin'0'^ S0Cial
™ no1
its future course:                                                                                     when planning
the Afar take seriously the settlement solution , and make visible efforts to get acquainted with this new type of life and unusual techniques;
the suggested size of family-tenure (2,5 ha)
exceedxthe labor potential of the family;
the Afar are not used to individual division of labor, also because it is an obstacle to the interaid tradition; they ask for group assignment of labor, on a clan basis;
the human-cattle relation, and the need of a basic milk diet is still so strong that it makes a problem for the Pilot Scheme: the settled families handle their herds to relatives, but may walk hours in order to get some cow milk. The importance of cattle is such that it cannot be assumed that all the Afar will give up pastoralism: well informed observers evaluate the possibility of settling 
I 50-60% of the total, provided that they can still use cow milk;
r such limitation in settling opens the problem of the other 40-50%. The loss of traditional rangesites in the irrigated 
| areas, and of the watering points along the Awash, demands a ’’compensation”, parallel to settlement (I).
* The Highlanders
As the Afar cannot cover but a small area, settlers fro other areas have to be called in. if the Government intention °f having 5  {>00 ha under settlement is to be implemented;
f
(1)
The problems pf setting up a range n-~n deghi plains have been dealt with in
iCTemertt in the Al- 92 -
such settlers could he found among farmin r the highlands. There are important differ § group and the local Afar population
from
enc « between
Average             age-structure mated as follows:
0- 4
5- 9
10-14
= 18%
= 16%
= 13%
in the highland population car. be tJ>.
4 7%
53%
^nUa? 71
0
trU ClUr e f
.       indicates         that      the      average      adult      labor      ?o-
other hand  th^rr18 higher than amongst the Afar.  On  the
number of worn ‘ erence may be compensated  by a  higher
the age-grou 
Afar. 
thC Afar P°iygamic family. Meanwhile ?     1 °r Pomary school is smaller than for the
highlanders are v *
understand the off’ *
r
Arming tradition T Jcir economic
nCra                      Christian; they speak or at Amhara language; they have a lor.g
an a diet mainly based on cereals.
.
u     llst   group   orc     n     1     y     JS      °n   the   scale    of    nuclear   famil‘eS
bdSed
. , 
on     common     r?1?"     iS       quite        ^ginal,     and     is     anyhow ‘ e8Jden« and not on kinship ties.
A iew settjern<snt g
n
4.2          G£NERAL c*IT R
eu
The 5, 000 ha iaten . a
Afar and the High J, /
the cOUntr (Arba V1<?S
pattern ki* ,ndlvit,ual ten
te "mey
^‘ghlanders have been started <lln’ current procedures ha'’1
u „/„ a glve„ cr*f*
0                          Se»l
Can th«  group® £
e
ndef‘- The
nu *ed, ot
to accommod^
pTCib[*rn is the follo*^*'
le > settle in distinct- 93 -
areas? It is assumed that the best solution, socially and political. L  would be that the two groups are intermingled. However, in 
or ’dcr to reach such a solution, the following elements should be carefully considered:
a ) The two groups have different languages
t>) The two groups have different religions
c )       The Highlanders are a traditional sedentary people whereas the Afar are pastoralists, semi-nomads
d)       Their social structures are entirely different: the Afar live
in elans, and the Highlanders in separate families
e)      The family structures are different: polygamic for the Afar, and monogamic for the Highlanders*
The above elements would suggest beginning with two distinct set tlements, while seeking similarities and common points in the social and economic fields, as to enforce the long-term unifica tion process.
These elements also require a differentiation of the type of tenancy to be adopted, the organization of production, the type of technical assistance and vocational training needed.
rorn the studies conducted up till now, it is extremely difficult to establish whether the Afar can, in fact, be absorbed in the social and economic context of the irrigated area^n a short delay.
ntaLity and psvcholoerv^ rrnnipp excentionallv delicate attentiwtwhich     makes     it     possible     to     eliminate     these     who     are     le8s       ja|teJ physically.      It      will      also      be      recalled      that      heavy      agriculturally have     been     taken     over     by     machines.     Also,     modern     teaching     tttj. niqucs    can    offer    methods    and    means    which,    if    properly    used,    {i# obtain     excellent     results.     Lastly,     several     solutions     -     which     wji be   dealt   with   later   -   concerning   the   type   of   tenancy,   will   facilitate and accelerate the integration of this group into the settlement.
A. Phasing
apting the Afar to agriculture, especially to a type which equires notable organizational qualities, modern techniq.n,
m><^Ch ^
a
-Zat*°n an^ understandlng the market with its complei
c anisms, can only come about through a constant progru 11 aSS,K ing responsibilities, in completing education, 
n
an ir. granting close, continuous technical assistance. f his procp*»q c *
tion and of d > ° lntervent^on ^rorri outside, of instruc- the basis of 1 Vcioprnent the Afar population, we have, oa
steps whirh ^  ^
re
ous experience, provided for four major
Phasing is ready to be
R \ the time jand
Wc ave tried to define and delimit in time.
^   the land has been prepared *-
w  en
11 is
 assuniefj that th Par'lt,On Wor^s are completed (197' 
dl also be over t °P rations necessary for recruteW'-
e
h’ °up already setti
r
ed  lnf° account the fact that the AMr
The^in
gad0
l,t0have^r-
ZZ°Ugh fUrth-X;SUjbr:8t
*  ** assumption, to be c"*?
d
»• 
This Period i6 .. . follows.-
'  years ^oruadic pastoralists to farmers r^
5
-p-
°‘a
dlVlded into
*   Phases of five years, as’
e
Selection j>hasc
A . Contracts: remuneration; it is to be Studie 9jif’ ;
I
the periodic retribution will be in the form ° *   1<*P
e
. wh^' ie
I salary or paid as an anticipation on returns 0- 95 -
Typical formative processes: literacy courses in 
Amaric language for adults; on the job training;
home economics
Technical assistance: intense
Kind of agricultural labor: during this phase the Afar
will be employed as simple labourers in jobs requir
ing little responsibility and where they will not be
required to make decisions, work tor long periods or
exercize great accuracy
Public      intervention:      primary      schools      for      school      age children: health service
Housing; all the necessary buildings for the technical and social services of the community will be con structed; the traditional Afar dwellings will be re placed by others in "chica *
1
Studies: on the diet and physical fatigue; psychologic al [on the way of reasoning, motivations, aspirations, etc*); anthropological (gathering and assessment of the basic elements of the Afar culture)
Contracts: short term tenancy contracts
Retribution: paid in advance and distribution of pro-
fits at the end of each season to balance the advanced 
sum
Typical formative processes: theory  and  practice in vocational training  complementary  to  on-the-jo^ trai ing
Less intense technical assistance
Kind      of      agricultural      labor:      work      requiring      a      gre^r sense of responsibility and a rqinimum of ju l,- 96 •
differentiation of tasks requiring basic cone
work organization 
Organization of the community: communities will |.f formed, closely assisted and guided; natural leade*, will be sought
4  * °-
Public      intervention:      primary      schools;      health      seme? scholarships to intermediate and secondary schools
Time required: 5 years.
S) As^sted management^
Contracts: long term contracts Retribution: distribution of profits
Typical         formative         processes: and general education courses Technical assistance, normal
Kind  of work: for the leaders, 
ordinate      responsibilities ance; for all, division c
requiring deeper knowledge of organization Organization of the communities: manage:
°f associational economic activities Puhhc intervention: as in the second phase
Time required: 5 years.
- - - i’lADigenit: nt A *ter 15 
y<?ars ,
— with --     long      peri—-
of     tasks     and   ’       responsibilities - ' of worfc
~
training     of     leaders for adults
managing and sub-
~iods of assist-
ment (as-
t ,U| dUCt al0
economic and product               tm*Hechnical assistance, AVA programs.                1V® activities contemplated in tl»e
As from the sixteenth year, special interventio
be stopped and the educational programs should o
^. tho’ugh withUled Afar WiH be c‘V»blc to c0L 
ns- 97 -
stricted to the normal ones provided for by the Govern ment. It is our opinion, however, that the Government should, on this occasion, create a "model" an the 3pot with carefully selected teachers and paying special at- tention to the quality of the programs.
23. Social Organisation
History offers a considerable choice of types of tenancy. 
In order to apply one of these examples to the Afar precise criteria must be established. The considerable financial in vestments required for the irrigation of the valley make it necessary above all to find suitable solutions so that a maxi mum income can be obtained with a minimum of costs in the shortest possible time.
It is certain, however, that the application of simple economic parameters without taking into account the social realities shall give adverse resuLts. Therefore, the second problem will be to select among the most profitable economic systems those most appropriate to the social and cultural mechanisms of the Afar.
From the economic viewpoint, there is no doubt that industrial farming practices are largely handicapped by fractioning the land into family plots; it requires more supervision, makes
the preparation of wide cultural plans precarious and all cultural practices more difficult and costly. Solutions must be found which make it possible to facilitate cultivation with the niR thods and techniques of the most modernized industrial farming,
i
*      part     of     those     of     the     community.     With     livestock.     ^°W the  relationship s eems to be different, of the individual
ner- 98 -
moments can be transferred in th, ». 
t
XTenan"": be implemented for the Afar The pasture        tend pr^emeou^
certain areaio 
this would be the g 
tthahatt i iss, w, wheherree i indu     ndu
The relationship 
the start by forming a commo 
of heads coming from each sing e
the A(ar woutd be brought „
concern in which there would be no sing
(an  average of 2 ha per family),
teC hniques are to be used
- tocuM could be maintained at
” th a certain nunibn
As soon as ponifc
*
The       psychological       necessity       of           indlV,dU^
na
*n
arc
aS a common
e! (about
satisfied by assigning to each farm y
500 sq.m) situated close to the we in
a nd poultry 
The family plot where vegetables are
farT11ly a*c
raised        will        supplement        food        requiremen        returns. 
if well-managed, bring in small monetary
on ab°ut The first brief enquiry shows that the Afar I  balance^ cH®*' 
1, 600-1,800 calories per day in a strongly u j
1
r cfl ca° ‘
the
The products coming directly froni^tKe^am^^^
in educating them in improving their diet. I  family 
n
women in the family can also work and imp«*°  stage of
v
cU, ‘/
potential and primitive entrepreneurship^  ^
al    xS
 jnst^ ^
3L
evolution, can better develop on what is one s what belongs to all. The family garden also contr*ily' shaping the mentality of the younger members of will give them a Icsb precarious contact with the
A greater problem for Btudy is that of the format^ sir.e Agricultural Communities
It is maintained that th.._______
v              P‘°po«ed solution can be ... 
* n lnto acc°unt as from the i
carl’1*'
d i*P
effect and must be nf NPtrl^m..nt r
first P1 . . rt
b3fle
the
>,v
implementation of cultural p^m CmpIoyment °  *
f
*- 99 -
The size of the Agricultural Community cannot be decided upon on an economic basis only: the "community" must be, in fact, for a number of years, rather small, so as nottocreatr
a bureaucratic shield and to facilitate the social and adminis trative organization inside the community itself (50 familias).
As a first tentative approach it can be assumed that the
) ideal size for a settlement farm is 400 ha - taking into account the cultural, technical, economic and social requirements. 
To each of these is to be added 10 ha of family gardens and / 20 ha of forage crops for cattle, for each group of 200 families.
The assignment of land to clans and not to the single families raises a series of important legal, administrative and organi zational problems and many different factors can come into play for the choice of their solutions.
In order to study them seriously, the combined studies of a jurist, a sociologist and an agricultural economist are required. It must also be kept in mind that the Civil Code (Art. 1489. etc.) - as suggested by Prof. Van Lier - makes it possible to organize ‘'Agricultural Communities’’.
Thus the Afar settlers’ position has been phased as follows:
1) laborers from the 1st to the 5th year, under AVA man agement;
members of short-term community tenancies from the 5th to the 10th year, under AVA management;
members of long-term community tenancies since the 11th year, with AVA technical assistance until the I 5th 
year-
members of long-term community tenancies after the 1 5th year, under self-management.
1 ls  Proposed that tenancy be given not to individual families i to clan groups organized in communities. A number
■ * \
C  nirr  u
°
’ nities totalling 200 families each should act as short-- 100 -
term tenant. Three of SUrh „„
lies) should produce a general
atmg from the 1 l th yeaf. 6ral COmrriunity managen,^^- C - 3^£hnicalprganizati
■„”PPi"8 PaUCrnS tenancy hav<;
6 °° Afa
into account:
aVC been ’elected
a)
b)
c)
the need to allow for-
of labor costs
r ° OVer and above the paymem
family labor, and^lab°r recluirements to the available
e h^end °f Afar ^bor
Pa """ (on a'
force productivity. The proposed surface equivalent to 2 ha per
Period Ist -I5th year
family) is-
Croi
Tobacco M aiz e Gr °undnut
-Lgl season           2nd season
s
16  b
‘ -3Oth yCar
Tob
ac
co
Maize
Bcan8
Tob acco has b,.
20% 40% 40%
33 . 3% 33 - 3%
33 -3%
20%
^3. 3%
9.6 19.2
11.6
18
21,3 12
labo/o/.'"''31'’0 il «ive°8dhCed ** 3 c»shcrop instead of * tobacco eSn pbysica| eff ‘gher returns and requires 1'"
but it i# eat. Afar to j *?atwiat a
topping  *   P'obl
p
la
cny
 ° 8 e
•        1 in P^k-periods. Of
Cr °p for the new far&c*
k   ^P^rvision will allo* 
ln 8 only On Jns ha# h 
du "«- They ”■’» -h„ „1 5 
^^rned in thi
P °ft-
e  time development of the
Snlootber
h^‘ng ^terns, could be
eVer- the basic concept£ ct-yZAz
- 101 -
/, c-m =Z^/e/->_ Z >-/s~'
z
-
e labor output (1) of each family is estimated to in- ease through training, diet modifications and increasing 
skill, as follows:
] st-Sth year
6th-10th year
- L. U. 1.7 (plus occasional 0. 4)
- L, U. 1.8 (plus occasional 0. 4)
I Lth- 1 5th year            = L. U. 1.9 (plus occasional 0. 4) I 6th-30th year               = L. U. 2              (plus occasional 0. 4)
Labor diagrams for the above mentioned cropping patterns
□ver 2 ha (to be elaborated in the second phase of the study) are lower than the family labor potential and absorb it com* pletely only in peak periods.
Thus each family's labor can .also take care of a small fami ly-plot (500 sq.m). This proportion between family labor
and tenancy size is essential for estimating the size of tenancy of a community of 200 families; i. e. 400 ha. Three 400 ha farms would thus form the area of the long-term community tenancy, or i. 200 ha; 3 0 ha of family-plots should be added. Further 60 ha should be reserved for forage crops, so as to feed  with the addition of crop residues, 2 milk cows per family 
t
i. e. a total of 1, 200 cattle to be organized in three community 
stables of 400 head each. Thus the total agricultural area
covered by the Afar settlement would be 1.290 ha.
The determinants of the selected cropping patterns are:
rl )    the     need     to     provide     livestock,     during     the     first     I     5     years °f settlement;
b )       the need to provide a cereal crop for diet diversification;
c )          the    need    to    provide    a    crop    which    has    a    commercial    value and provides residues used for livestock feeding,
F arniiy i bor
w °*r»aa n and 
°Peratio
ns
* s estimated as composed by 1 man, of 11 - I 4 years; occasional labor for same
l ’ e' iOr picking, may be supplied by a second- 102 -
,4
d)     the need to uniform such cm ■ r-r, „ith that of hlghlan<, .^"r.^’""
.' ^he Afar, due to their lark  r
n
v <
J   i •— tight super
x ^k4~ *'
r    tradi,i-.
>
J ev ery 16-17
•       1 every 25 in the
1 cvery 50 in the third 5
™iefl in
first 5 years
second,5 years years.
D.     Houses, Vi J |
ed
 on the basiVof^ ^
^^-an^Sociai Services
0 areas of irrigated land is establish-
tll e land and of ora lrna^ criteria of distribution of labor cz
/ the Afar settlement
°* services< Also in this field,
* ) riod, at least, h :s T*l3cB difficulties, During the first pe- ‘ )with fatniliC5 beion * Vl8a^e to avoid forming settlements
$ 
Motion of the dwllf
P  mg about 5o , 
tls
n
ging to different clans.
b<? madC UP 30 aB tO facilitate the diS,Tl'
®8’ The setting up of 12 villages com-
W -" T'     in.^,hich        the     inter     CaCh        iS        9u8geated,     with     a     Service
e Ulufied, through th 
th& Various communities
Tlj . 
e    orrn
 ^    * of association provided.
Ce  lll*ges will
both the c° "°ne of them " Btar ahaP  round the Service
e
entt e and the in other 8efH
tiers; thi ernentProje
m  aFe more than 1 -1 j/Z km Motr ° St dl8tant fields,
ready     feeJ       th.^     n°l       apPly     to     ,°Using     Was       Jn       c^arge       the       S       t
b '-"«r habit,ti
ca “!- Th‘ Alar
■*« houge i„ „            ,h« bos, ,Q,‘ h°‘r "adHional hula for ‘
°‘ th,. 
«.b eo^'1™ «W
Op'/Tiam. to be ,,„died tM
be tha. »'
•p. ™ — 
r
ra ^ hygienic and family c°n
v,,lageMamIix tOciologi8t * Jnhs, requires th*103 -
J>- M^X#^ ,
/-. r,-
Thc Social Services comprise schools and clinic organisa tions for community development, security and religious institutions.
It has been mentioned previously that it is fundamental to supply services on a standard higher than the average stand ard of the Country.
It is estimated that the primary school-age population will
be 350-400; one school will therefore be provided with 6 class rooms - 1 room for each class at double shift for a maximum
of 30 pupils per class.
For vocational training, adult education and community work, at least 5 large rooms must be provided for lessons, and a
large shed for practical work as well as the projection of
slides or films.
The health service will dispose of a clinic with 3 rooms and services.
Lodging will also have to be provided for teachers and dressers.
I-or religious services the building of a mosque should be considered,
, If^conclusion.'^be Afar settlement is estimated to require:
a ) Housing:
600 houses for settlers (1 x family, about 30 sq.m) in chica with corrugated-iron roofs
2? houses for personnel (lxfamily, about 40 sq.m) in chica with corrugated-iron roofs
13 houses for staff (lx family, about 60 sq.m) in concrete.
So  as to distribute investments over more years, the
S ettlersi houses may be built in 1975 and the settlers
d continue to use their oresent huts during the urs 0- 104 -
.           f J ?
b) Operational buildings:
The various offices and meeting hall, in concrete
q cover 320 sq.m. 
• Stores, shops and garage will cover 330 sq.m.
c) Social services buildings:
The Social Center (for adult education, literacy courser and vocational courses) will cover 150 sq.m, plus on? shed to be used as meeting hall, on 200 sq.m.
Not to be charged on the Project: 1 primary school bull ing of 6 classes, covering about 220 sq.m will be needed and 1 clinic. Personnel and housing should be provide-
by the related Government agencies.
’
4,2 ‘2 I’l‘LRole_ofSt0ck
~         ' 
ln  the Afar Settlers’ Farms
The reasons for introducing stock breeding in the sc a)
r
ettlem^nt
0O pulatl°n
-b)
A.
To supply milk, as an element of the diet, to a p esefll who, traditionally, has used this product up to 1
day, as a basic food.
To allow for the herdsmen to gradually becom< utilizing the experience acquired in the past in *toC
°' d" -at the „
"-’•hfgh 
Point of vi
CW( th
ard OtProduct
CM be combined with »*
farms ** *s necessary
farm      group,      wooL/?      8tributi°n      o/|Z        b°      rnadniarned.      Fro#1         f
ln g exceg •ive
Zatlon in producti*' 
11 1B lh<-'rolorc advi,ahI
about
by
° •• to reach
Ld
- many
res ^^sf by empM'
An  insufficient sped**1 ° ,ettIeT> in gr-oup^'
Ren,en‘in the stock-bre^sector, which from the technical point of view i» ,
r th
similar to the form of management followed on »h . ' and medium size farms. 
The criteria to be followed are:
,) Each settler will contribute a„ equal „umb„ hcJd
cattle to the associated management;
b) Management of the stock-breeding unit according to the " th°’e aPPli'd “d
c  large
Concerning      forage      production,      there      are      two      possible      alter natives:
That the individual settlers contribute their production of forage to the associated management; this must cover the amount required for feeding the number of cattle each individual has provided
That the associated management provides the required production of forage
Once expenses have been deducted (personnel employed, | depreciation and maintenance of machinery, buying of
breeding animals and veterinary expenses), the profits are divided - in cash or kind - among the members of the group.
above 6 Hre n° °^stac^es» socially, the second alternative can be P^CarS adv* kle, so that the cultivation of forage
sa
w1
Points oY"!^ °Ut e£ficiently from the technical and economic
" ~~~^-^— ^2,f_Ehe.,Stock-breeding Units and^E^onorn_ic_Re_sjjlts
6fi0rsqtly itf       ’   rnust    be    borne    in    mind    that    the    overaJl    group    of re qui rnU 1US Afar Settlers» that has been assumed, will
FC a dailV milk production of 1, 200 kg.-106-
According to the assumptions made previously in the caJe of cattle-breeding, the initial phase will require about U.5 groups of animals (each composed of 4 bulls, 100 cows and their calves). As the cows' productivity improves, these
groups ma44»uj      y gradually be   ---------- z
reduced. At the same time, the
forage     requirements     and     the     land     intended     for     the     cultivation 
of forage plants, as well
Milk production remains
’
creases accordingly. As the group
as    current    costs    would    also    decree: constant     while     meat     production     de-
------>s become smaller, par:
of    the    Livestock    is    sold    out.    In    the    computations,    this    live stock    has    been    estimated    at    the    same    price    as    animals    in tended     for     slaughter,     even     though     the     farmer,     having     bee- improved might obtain better prices.
In Annex B„ Table B-l 1 are shown the details oi the tion of stock-raising, with the variation, over the y ‘ the number of groups of dairy cattle, in the total 0I^.^reg quirements (expressed in F. U.) to be produced (c°n
in the green state), and the ha to be cultivated un C^nuW| of on the assumption that 480 ha are intended for groun which the foliage will be used.
The by-products of the husk of the mai^e an
beans will not be used. Unit prices and costs C1 
adopted for industrial farms.
In Annex B, Table B-12 figure current costs,
investments.
Assuming that the Afar and Highlanders settlements
in terms of the respective cropping patterns, by the terf. the stock breeding activity of the Afar should be lnt^r$ This can be shown in the calculation of settlement rate return. either by imputing a resaLe value to the stock r« ing at the 15th year, or by letting the settlement run uH» the end of its useful life, and computing benefits and coSt*- The second solution has been retained only for ease of putation.
i the P0^
th°se
returns
- -eat
I- 107 -
(          , The_Hi&hHnders
adapting the Highlanders to the type of agriculture to be practised on the irrigated land also raises numerous, costly problems.
Their traditional agricultural vocation has been formed over the centuries in environmental, technical, social and organizational conditions completely different from those found in the present case.
The Highlanders are used to choosing their crops according to the consumption requirements of their families, but they will have to accept cropping patterns determined by the market. Their mentality of a subsistence economy will have to change to that of a market and therefore monetary economy. Their work is usually determined by natural factors, but they will have to accept the rythm, organization and times fixed by farming of an industrial type. Instead of actingjaccording to their own individual initiatives they will be subjected to notable links with organizations.
These aspects require an important cultural transformation, which can only be reached thrpugh education and intense technical and social assistance over a long period of time.
On the other hand, it seems that there is no alternative as the natural historic transition from the traditional family concern to rn °re modern economically acceptable forms of agriculture can only be brought about through cooperation.
On ly after many years of association willilherealistic to consid P°Ssibility of the Highlanders taking a final step towards a
of farming closer to that organization’ll ’’optimum * 1C present the privilege of industrial farms.
A ’ -basing
Jt  has been again thought necessary to divide the period1 r*' ^
t
J or the Highlanders to adapt to life on the irrigated land, ° Ur ^i tinct phases.
s- 108 -
1) Selection phase
Contracts: work remunerated, with a minimum income paid in advance; completed at the end of d:* agricultural year
Organizati onal and institutional aspects; establish ment of compulsory cooperatives; formation of social organs in the village cooperatives (I grade) having purely advisory functions
Public          intervention:          primary          sc health service: literacy courses
Housing, the villages and all buildings the communities’technical and social servi be erected in advance
Time required: 3 years.
2) Starting-up phase
Con‘racta: short.term tenanc es
.
hods for children;
for adults.
Or
g;«nizational anrt ■
social or« -
With
lns titutional aspects: formation grade cooperatives
y adv,sory /unctions
s 7*
1 e c1tCion of     al forr   Qat
«ative int
erVentions; formation and
Cc *Urses      i
J ° Gaining 
n voeAf: *  eaders; theory and  practical
naI tr^ining together with on~tbe~
Public        interventions:        scholarships        for        ,nt and secondary schools
Time required; 7 years.
3)        Assisted management
Contracts: long-term t
enancias/
Organizational and institutional aspects: formation 
of social organs in grade III cooperatives with purely 
advisory functions; scLf-managemcnt in grade 1 co-
operatives
Typical       formative       interventions:       courses       in       manage ment and general culture courses for adults
Time required: 5 years,
4) Self-management phase
It is assumed that for the Highlanders also unusual inter ventions will cease in the sixteenth year and all the edu cational establishments will be those normally provided by the Government.
Social _Org ani zation
As already mentioned, individual tenancy will have to be the initial form of tenancy, following the highlanders tradition and the existing settlement schemes (Awassa, Arba Minch, etc.). Meanw hilc - as to avoid the handicap of individual
r
tenancies in industrial farming - cooperatives should provide the right balance. But in the present case cooperation creates Quite a problem.
a matter of fact, the usual development process of co- °P ration - with its long term trend of free participation, oi
e
increasing belief, of experience acquired through alternate ailure and success - is unfit to present requirements: indus-
tr ial farming demands a strong and effective organization, 
the large investments for irrigation press for fast returns. US usual process cannot be followed.
onl 1 e other hand, cooperation must be recognized as the
y solution allowing the organization of the activities of a ea t number of small farmers at industrial farming level.
andt the lo»ical conclusion is to make cooperation compulsory Svi Pport it with an intense educational effort.-110-
The most responsive size of a group of adults to such ed--
tional action appears to be around 50 families. This ah
Ou d
i
be the size of a village (100 ha) to be organized during the
selection phase as a first-grade (multipurpose) cooperative
Four of such villages (400 ha with 200 families) should make
a farm-cooperative of second grade; nine farm-cooperativei
should form one third-grade cooperative (3, 600 ha with 1,ft;
families).
The      latter      organization      should      be      working      (assisted)      at      the beginning of the long-term tenancy.
In  these conditions,  long-term tenancy  may  still be individual unless non-individual tenancies will be proposed  (only  family plots will remain in any case individual).
In conclusion, the highland settlers position has
as
1)
2)
3)
follows:
been phased A VA nian- the 10th rear
4
laborers       during       the       first       three       years,       under agement;
short-term      individual      tenants      from      the      4th      to under AVA general management;
long-term individual tenants, or memo 
ber , of
sgistancC
cooperative tenancies, with AVA technical until the 15th year
4)
do. but providing self-management after the 1 5th Y‘3
C.      I —1 Qrganjz, ati_o n
Cropping patterns and ten^ in comparison with the
................... — - labor potential
have been slightly m
•  Soh^ion, because of the higher
as
follows
and productivity of the highllnder's family
Period
1 st-I 5th year
Crop
1st season
?nd season
Yearly yirl^X^^
T obacco
25%
2 5%
Maize
50%
12
Beans
2 5%
24
-
1 3j6th-3O   Y«ar
th
Tobacco Maize
Beans
1st season 2nd season Yearly yield tali 33. 3%
33.3% 33. 3%
18
21.3
12
Labor diagrams of the above cropping patterns, on 2 ha show
that average labor output of each family, estimated at 2 L. U. 
(+ occasional 0.4), is a little higher than requirements, so 
that one family is fit for a 2 ha tenancy (l), and can also take
care of a small family-plot (500 sq.m).
Thus in the self-management phase each village cooperative
of 50 families would be responsible for 100 ha plus 5 ha of
family parcels; each second grade cooperative of 200 families
would run 400 ha, plus 10 ha of family parcels; nine coopera
tives, totalling 1, 800 families, would run 3, 600 ha, plus
90     ha     of     parcels:     the     total     agricultural     area     for     the     Highlanders settlement would be of 3, 690 ha.
If the Afar settlement is willing to join the Highlanders after the 15th year, the agricultural settlement area would amount to 4, 980 ha, with one general management.
Supervision should be framed so that 1 foreman takes care 25 farmers for the first 10 years, and of 50 from the 11th 
to the 30th.
YL!A g.?®_and_S^c_ial_ Services^
a
Special care should be devoted to defining the type of house the Highlanders and the urbanistic layout of the villages.
trad itional area of the rural compound will have to be ar ply reduced but still fit to customary family life. The.
(!) Rot
1On
require that individual plots be sc
attered.I
- 112 -
the traditional house.
The position and distance between the single villages and & Service Center may follow the same guidelines mentioned for the Afar.
—■ n 
Social   services   may   adopt   the   criteria   set   up   for   the   Afar, applied to three times as much population.
Thus, the Highlanders settlement is estimated to require:
a) Housing:
0 houses for settlers (1 x family, about 30 sq.ml in chic a; with corrugated iron roofs.
88 houses for personnel (1 x family, about 40 «q.«!
in chica; with corrugated iron roofs.
h °uaea {or staff (l x family, about 60 sq.m1 in concrete.5 ECONOMIC and financial aspects
the PRESENT ECONOMIC SITUATION: IMPLICATIONS ON THE
5.1 JgST OF INPUTS AND PRICE OF OUTPUTS
Ethiopia has a predominantly agricultural economy, surprisingly unencumbered by Government intervention. Thus, current price
of inputs and outputs of agriculture bear at present a rather strict relationship with market determined prices. The exceptions are few: sugar, which is heavily protected through custom duties; cotton, protected, although to a lesser extent, by custom duties
on both imported cotton and imported artificial fibers; and a feu- industrial commodities. Price controls are not operative, and policies of subsidization or incentive to domestic production are not yet making a significant dent in the economics of agriculture. The Grains Corporation, which originally had the task of buying the output of subsistence farming at prices which would stimulate a rise in productivity, has limited its policy to that of reducing the monopsonistic character of the market by curtailing the size of speculative marketing, traditionally in the hands of a few traders. Non-agricultural inputs are sold by a relatively large .number of suppliers, mostly' of foreign nationality, in lively competition, and the market appears relatively free of distorsions.
Substantially the same observation is va
r£X uC
j   tion is const
level, when the cost of aggregate factors o ^^essed serious dered. Ethiopia’s balance of payments na
drawbacks in recent years, the result o 0 world market and of the closing of the Suez
p i es on the
Tc
Foreign ex- an( j 1966.
change reserves have
drastica v inassumption, since in the long run the economy of Ethiopia win dergo substantial changes in its structure, which may not be conciled with the continuation of the present exchange rate. On the other hand, it is not possible to state more realistic hypothec unless a complete normative growth program for the long run is specified, which is not the task of a project study, like the pre sent one.
For the cost of capital, the only approximations to its current level can be obtained by canvassing the credit institutions. Short-term secured loans carry an interest rate of 9-10% per annum. Longer- term loans arc slightly more expensive, although the volume of credit is minute. Such high rates do not apply to agriculture, » iu appears to be almost totally cut-off from short-term credit sou.ee. but arc indicative of a high cost of capital.
In the economic feasibility study, the cost of capital does no .P a part directly, since the feasibility will be proven on the <
the project's internal rate of return,* but the internal rate °
se5 or
/
to have a meaning, must be compared with even rough £u<?
the cost of capital. The second phase of the study will taC
^,
rt
S
ion morc m money iveg
^t;ns;^rc?na
is
>• any case, the high cost of short^ ace  that the current cost of capital for
R>nat lCant dlstort‘on to th f° Us econonn
at Prcsent * ‘he relative
‘c value, and that r.o
m
bf or:,
cost of cap tal
.w ill accrue to his family when he finds employment. The latter
or t he difference between the average value of the basket con
sumed by the underemployed and the average value of the basket consumed by the labourer in the project, will be used here. For
the value of consumption by the underemployed, we have used ar. estimate of annual per capita income in the subsistence sector
o f Eth. $ 80, obtained from an estimate of agricultural value added in that sector (from the 1968/69 - 1972/73 Five Year De velopment Plan). Such income, divided into the average annual number of work days per labourer in the highlands (festivities
plus rainy days can be estimated at some 150 days/year) gives
a daily income of Eth^Q37, which we shall approximate at Eth. S 0.40 The real cost of labor can thus be taken at Eth. $0. fi5 per day. This will be the value taken to represent the real cost of unskilled 
labor at present.
Skilled labor, which is scarce and basically fully employed, can not be subjected to a similar analysis and the current market salaries will be assumed to represent the real cost of labor at present.
at th e<,U,Ilbrium s,tuat’on through time, wage rates must increase b ft. \Sdme ratC aS Productlvity (output per man employed), while
e cost of capital and the foreign exchange rate remain l *nt. Throughout the life of the project, therefore, labor
COSts will
• .
ve a rising trend. The extent of the increase will
ated to a hypothesis of growth in productivity for the eco-
vclo^ed5 a Wh°le
long-run. in the absence of a model de-
proi e • COVer long-run, recourse must be had to growth 
whoi Ctl°ns COVer*ng a shorter period. For the economy as a
jecta\ tHe 1968//69 ’ 1972/73 Five Year Development Plan pro- Acreage in output per man of 3. 7% per annum, or nearly
project Period tOta^ next fiVe
HVe ycars’ On the other hand' the World Bank h3S
growth at 4. 5% per annum over the same a  rise in output per man of only 12% over rhe
but as tu yearfi* A choice between the two models is difficult, in assu recurrent theme of this report is to stress prudence Rank ra?Ptl°na Hnd conservativeness in estimation, the World 
the
lo *ina
he taken, and projected at five-year internals o^er ° f the Project. The results are shown in the fol-
13 for unskilled labor..- 116 -
Years
TREND IN LABOR COSTS (Eth. $ per day)
Real Rate of Unskilled 
Labor on World Bank 
Market Rate for Unskilled
Labor on World Bank
Assumptions of Rise
in Productivity
Assumption of Rile
in Productivity
1968
1969    •  1973 
1974 - 1978
1979 - 1983
1984 - 1988
1989 - 1993
1994 - 1998
1999 - 2003
0. 85
0. 95
I. 06
1. 19
1. 33
1. 49
I. 67
1.25
1.40
1.57
1. 76
1.97
2. 2‘
2. *8
1. 87
ketirp 
° ( domestic and export crops, the section on rr>a
the e o *            • 
specifies the assumptions to be used thro'Jg
d
the economic feasibility study.
5. 2 FINANCIAL ASPECTS
Until     the     choice     of     the     best     cropping     pattern     in     the     circum6 of    the    project    has    been    made;    that    is,    until    a    final    account    oi highest     feasible     rate     of     return     of     the     project     has     been     o bta»ne ’
it is impossible to  present full financial accounts relating project.  Thus,  the financial position  of the different farm as well as of the central irrigation  authority  cannot be
to tt>e
r
ta’ '
n
ed at present. Only in the ,eCOnd pha8e
question be tackled.
Nevertheless, financial problems are already evident at
First and foremost, is the Jack of credit facilities to agricuU^ ? While for medium and long-term credit local development W***
g                   can thi-
1-117-
be relief upon to provide finance, short-term credit is niay ally unavailable to farmers. Even short-term credit to P ractIC f  ms appears difficult to come by. In these circum-
ar
largr" and considering that the present situation may not
stance change^^a!
s  de
ft may be necessary to foresee action on the f   and provide for arrangements between A. V. A
103  the local commercial banks for the financing of short-term 30  dit needs. This is a matter of importance not merely for the Melka Sadi-Amibara project, but also for the development of the whole Awash Valley.
5. 3 MANPOWER AVAILABILITY AND REQUIREMENTS
A) Industrial Farms
While during the second phase of the study, the more specific aspects of skilled and supervisory manpower availability will
e analysed, at this stage it is assumed that such manpower wi in fact become available as needed. For unskilled labor, demand131 Pr°blerris ariae: supply is far larger than present dTspos Urban areas and the surrounding highland countryside find a °f a large number of unemployed laborers, hungry to ject b ^^rnanent j°k survey will soon be started on the sub-
c ta] A/fai* ^H^stry Communications, Development and So-
farrns (X<rS
a matter of fact none of the present industrial
any      dirr      eta^ara»      Nura      Era,      Awora      Melka,      Wonji,      Abadir)      had ‘Hiculty in finding labor.
It is unde
n tirnber ^^StOo<^ that the Ministry of Labor will increase the trough wh^10^ offices (one is to be opened in Nazreth), 
lc h labor demand will be channeled and easily met.
£ yen fOr
8 up ply Probirtain typeS of semi-skilled and skilled manpower no c *®rk8 Se ern appears to exist: watchmen, drivers, foremen, 
Modest o
n
^ Ornr^er j
c a | 
ava Hable immediately or may only require training. For clerks, in particular, the
frade              SchoolSCh°O1              Addis             Ababa             and             the              Asmara         Vocational
give a remarkable output of graduates.-Jia-
Thus,       investiga       tian       in       the       second       phase       will       be       coi ascertaining the future availability of:
a)         technicians;
b)        agronomist and agricultural supervisors;
c)        irrigation and civil engineers;
d)        farm managers,
Detailed            labor            diagrams
for            concessionaries            accord, 
ing         cropping         patterns         are         being         elaborated,         and         shal vided at a later stage of the study.
13 ) Settlement Area
1  he population
(1.000- 1 , ZOO farn I ’
than half
or
'Therefore a numb
***           Project Area (Afar) is sr ' and it has been estimated that
be willing and fit for set
Highlands can also^K 1'8°°^ of non - Afar famines fron
phic prob]erns s e Settled  in the JProject Area.  No  d<
small farmers (ver ° driaef' due to  the very large nunr
dnd labourers wilhj Srna,i owners,  tenants and  aharecr
among the several nfi 1 r
in the crowded and C3V_ Ons oi ru
and  raise their standards
ral families presently J
’ Ver^ owdedH
r
ighlands
It has been assumed, for the purposes of defining the S*Z family holding,, that the settled families should furnish F ncnt as well as seasonal labor: no hired sea sona l.M bpX
mix with the settlers.
The only demographic problem
ment, concerns that part of the
cannot or will not settle. The range m project on the AUedcghi plains (see para
solve the problem.
Arising in relation to the -q *
local Afar population, wh*£
izitegrat1 * * * * * *
4. 4 
) is meant t‘- 119 -
settlers, full-time managerial and technical person opart frorn.red for operating the settlement. Such personnel is
"nlclted^n the following Table.
Table 14
Type of Personnel
Unskilled labor.
personnel requirements in the settlement area Profession
Afar settlers families
No.
600
Highland settlers families
Semi-skilled and 
■killed labor
Driver!
Tractor driver*
Foreman
Cowman
Guard
1800
16
36
3
7
Clerks
Secretary
Chief accountant
1
2
Accountant
Assistant accountant
Storekeeper
Salesman
1
■Technicians
Chief mechanic
4
Assistent mechanic
3
Ass. managers
General manager
Farm managers
t
Det;ii,a‘lablluy of personnel for the settlement area “
se ec
he tnents expressed for the industrial farms area can e ap .
i  ted 
cr
op _ farm labor Vagrams for the settlement and the
a
a  ,°  ‘ng pattern are J elaborated( and ^11 be proved
4ter st*ge of this studyz121
6. ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT
early to fully define the organization and management functions ^different authorities in the ProjectArea. This task can only be fulfill-
hen the final decision as to cropping patterns, farm sizes and financial ed  uctures have been taken. For the more limited purposes of this report, 
^has been assumed that the Awash Valley Authority will be in charge of the general layout of the project, of which it will manage the head-works, main canals and drains, as well as principal roads, and all works that
arc common to the project as a whole. The management of other works
has been assumed to remain in the hands of the concessionaries, or - in 
the case of the settlement - in the hands of the community organization overseeing the operation of settlers. On the other hand, the confirmation 
of the validity of these assumptions doe s'not appear to require a great deal of study and it appears possible to decide now whether A. V. A, should remain responsible only for common works. In the light of present cir cumstances, it can be observed that:
i)     by and large, the concessionaries having obtained leases both in the upper and in the middle VaLley appear to have the capability of sustain- ln S the full responsibility for managing works other than common ones, r  uture concessionaries fully expect to have this responsibility;
b)
c)
should the second phase of the study indicate that middle size farms
•re likely to be set up efficiently, these could also be made responsi- e  for works other than common ones;
e ttlement is viewed as having the ability to manage such works.
OVerridi
j s t‘ £ 
n
in favor of splitting responsibilities as indicated
types of fa nee<* to s^ve scarce skilled manpower: it is likely that all
°nth  farm™0™’ eVen 11 they wcrc not responsible for all works existing 
e
c
e * « for what^011^
need the help of engineers, skilled mechanics,
? hes« talem
s  eVer Share works remained within their responsibility. 
c ould be better exploited by enlarging the purview of their
...lc °re limited purpose of the present report, the setting up 
°  Plant °
n
Cr plant and distribution system as well as of a water
■ J °f th ^*str'dution network, has not been taken into accoun 
ea ‘lh
e
operations are represeated by their im^nent andexjeratoexpm- ene£«* by their Saleable output. thus power and water supply- 122 -
can be isolated at present from the first approximate analysis of the
of return,and shall be treated in the second phase. The institutional and management implications of power and water supply also remain to be investigated.
The second phase will also approach another series of problems, yet untouched. These refer to the provision of social services and their orga nization: schools, hospitals, police, town planning, etc. The only assurn ption made in the present report is that such services are not charged Io the project itself, and that they should issue from local and central Government activities, and remain their responsibility. While in the later stages of this study these aspects will be thoroughly investigated, 
a decision must be taken at present as to the correctness oi the assump tion, or on whether they should be charged as costs to the project. ft should be noted that the eventual population of the Mclka Sadi - Amibara area may well exceed 60, 000, thus becoming a large agglomeration lor Ethiopian rural standards.125 -
7, WTLDL1FE KE SOURCES
4
r01 ect cannot, ot course be expected to bring a positive contribution TheLhfe as the setting up of a vast irrigated area, where before hand 
presence of humans was only shown by the passage or sporadic settlements " .g constitutes, a disturbing infliienc? on the subsistence of large
wild animals. Measures must therefore be taken on one hand for the protection of wLldlife against the negative effects of the project and, on the other hand, to safeguard the results of the project against attacks ind damage by wild animals.
For the preservation of acquatic and riverine wildlife,itis necessary to guarantee a certain flow of the Awash downstream, while, since the project provides for the settlement of a large number of people, special supervision measures must be taken to avoid poaching in the wildlife areas close to the project.
'dth reference to the danger of damage to the project, fortunately the rrmst dangerous large species (such as elephant andbiffalo) arc absent. There are, however, numerous wart hogs and baboons which will have to be controlled.
p  ^niC                           border areas are frequented by wild animals, it would awa 1>C a<^v^sable to use electrified fencing, which would keep them it wifi d^ter a year power could even be shut off. In normal conditions, 
er
the <ioubi°^ ^^
a
Possible
au ^ce to station a few scouts along the border, having 
of keeping the animals at a distance and controlling
CJUestian     P°aching-     In     later     stages     of     the     study,     a     fuller     analysis     of     this Wl11 be carried out.tassumptions, problems and alternativesI. GENERAL
The m
urn
ber and detail of the data and elaborations shown in Part II have
been given
U  at this early stage of the study for the specific purposes of:
a)
b)
solating     some     of     the     major     problems     which     need     early     identification and    decision,    so    as    to    avoid    carrying    through    the    whole    length    □£    the s^udy a vast number of alternatives;
keeping the Steering Committee fully informed of all aspects of the elabo ration;
c) knowing at an early stage whether the project appears suitable for financing and likely to make a significanl contribution ro the economy of Ethiopia;
d) permitting further deepening of AVA policy thinking on the future development of the Awash basin;
e, ‘ clarifying the role of agencies other than AVA in the coordination of activities linked with the development of the Awash basin,
ita exactness of the details given must be viewed, therefore, in relation these purposes and are subject to change in the future phases of the2. WATER AVAILABILITY
The construction of the Koka dam and the coming into operation of th ^droelectric plant have given a start - with the marked increase .n th river Awash flows during the dry season - to a whole series of m
for agricultural reclamation along the entire river valley, and easurcs non is still in continuous evolution. Regular concessions have be granted for part of these irrigation areas, whereas in other full' „d 
a
final regulation is still lacking. From a model concession contract drawn up by the AVA, it has been possible to see that, among the commitments entered into by the concessionary, 19 that of submittin, the crapping pattern envisaged and the relative monthly water Xh meats for approval by the Authority. Up to now however
been available either from the AVA or’feZ7b 
9 •
Pr "’”
regarding these water requirements
th. contracts or from o.her arrangements' 
u ™ the C0nceS31c>nanes
"’““"S
alreadv mentioned f AO report of I 965, on the basis of the discharges oj e Awash river during the hydrological year I 962-1 963 and of likely congtructratlCrnS* conciQded that, in the first phase, i, e. beforethe
of the Mek°n
^ urt^er compensating reservoir or of the diversion
thCBe bein * nVer’ £t would be possible to reclaim 63, 400 ha - 12, 000 of
in the Lower^^n Upper Valley* 1 9’ 500 ln the Middle Valley, and 31, 900 
some of the *’ C*^’
the cropping patterns now being followed
C| der at Met h lrrigution areas in process of reclamation, and in parti use indicated^a* have considerably higher water requirements than 
the wate  ren f
ru
*• emulated On V*1611
^AO report. For want of final data on water rights, *  the larger irrigation areas have been tentative-
8
process of ^asis of the cropping patterns now being followed, or The Water e* ® introduced, and of the climatic data in oar posses-
n
to
the CrJ requirernents of the smaller irrigation areas - for some
S iHl°Se          the      lc-^ln^      PatterPS      are      still      unknown      -      have      been      assimilated 
(iee Afnib*ra
thU
c  P*  U , 
rt
* rrigati°n areas adjacent to them. For the Melka 2  6 1®atlOn are* water requirements for cropping pattern A
r
° Ppillg Patte v _ trt1erUa, 
have been taken into consideration. Although 1  is not the most demanding with regard to water
to ’pri ?i°U3 ^onthT^1 FSt f°  moment, the most profitable one. 
r
7 eqUir—   are outlined in Table 15 , With regard 
tS
' le*st in ’ those indicated in the FAO report could not be retained 
Part’ they have been substituted by the provisions of theSPECIFIC WATER REQUIREMENTS
(l/sec x ha)
Abadi r
Months
Nura Era
and Tibila
Metaha r a
Melka Sadi and Amibara
(1)
Others
Lower
Valley
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
0. IS
0. 40
0. 40
0. 31
0. 04
0. 31
0. 60
0. 88
0. 98
0. 74
0.
0. 10
0. 61
0. 62
0. 84
0. 85
0. 95
1. 0?
0. 08
I
I
I
I
0. 08
0. 12
0. 12
0, 13
0. 46
0. 62
0, 85
0. 98
0. 81
0. 61
0. 23
0. 66
0. 67
0. 31
0. 15
0
N
D
Year
1. 00
o. 85
0. 82
0. 74
0. 65
0.56
0. 18
0. 40
0. 40
0. 31
0. 04
0. 31
0. 60
0. 88
0.98
0.74
0. 56
0. io
0. 48
0. 65
0. 90
1. 03 0. 85- 131
3td
e  Year Plan and by the extension of the reclamationg already The following three hypotheses have been considered-
*
■?
being 1113           ‘
s  of irrigation districts already reclaimed or in the process
a)  of being reclaimed
b}  areas envisaged in the 3rd Five-Year Plan
i areas envisaged in the 3rd Five-Year Plan, but increasing the
area of the Melka Sadi-Amibara area from 10. 750 to 20, 000 ha.
The areas of the various irrigation districts in the three hypotheses
and those indicated in the FAO report are summarized Ln Table I6r
On the basis of these areas and of the water requirements in Table 15 
the discharges to be derived for the various irrigation areas have been 
calculated together with the overall discharges for the Upper and Middle
Valleys and for the entire Valley. In this respect it is thought advisable
to stress:
that     the     water     requirements     in     Table     Ibrefer     to     the     acreage     actual ly cultivated and net of network losses
that through  want of more precise figures it has been  assumed  for the time being  that the percentage of commanded  area occupied  by roads,  canals,  drains,  dykes,  farm buildings,  dwelEngs,  etc.,  is 20%
that it has been assumed that the network losses, net of the amount scored fertile river through drains and/or groundwaters are equi-
d
of the requirements
accoiUlt has not been taken of the Wonji irrigation area which has
char n °peration for * number of years. Therefore, available dis-
reauf6
d °'"n9tream cftheWYjestate are already net of the ^m  t  of the Wonji.
en s
re3UltS °f the calculations are outlined in Tables 17. 18 and 19. I’he T- -
V i± 1_U g. ft ,
,
° f  the year f J   .. 
tne t be
ttie d*scharges to be diverted during the various mo 
c of“r the ligation areas of the Upper and Middle Valleys have Spared (Tables 20,21 and22) with the corresponding v.- 132 -
AREAS RECLAIMED OR TO BE RECLAIMED
(ha)
1 Already Re
Areas
1 3Hrive.y.t
/     A mi ban 1 Increase:
Upper Valley
Wonji
Nara Era-Tibila
Middle Valley Metahara
Abadir
Melka Sadi-Ami bar a Others
Lower Valley * Dubti
Dit Bahri Aus sa Others
Whole Valley
1 FAO Report
12,000
6, 500 
5,400
19,500
10, 500
-
7, 000
2, 000
31,900
|
claimed or /           under
1 Reclamation
9, 000 
7, 000 2, 000 /
13, 550 
/     3rd     Five-
j Year Plan
i 13, 500 j
I        7, 000 6, 500
7, OX
6, so:
/    23, 550 
4,000 
j          750
800
1  21, 660
8, 000 /        8, 000
I        4, 000
/ 1 0, 750
/ 800
j 29, 660
I
32,<2? 0,OK 4,0K
1 20, W
9, 050                            6, 000              / 6, 000 |
10, 950                           2, 000              / 6, 000 /
11,900 11, 000 / 14,000  /
-
2, 660
/      3, 660
63L400                 |
44,210
/ /TOl'A I WATF:H kt:QUmEMENTSAGCOR.in^C, J OSURFAUHS ALRKADY RECLAIMED ok UN DER H.ECI .AM RT1ON
(cu. 111/ sec)
r-                 --             -
i 1 N'ura Era
/ Months ■ and Tibila
L
KZ, 000 ha)
1 Metahara
■ (S.000 ha)
|' Abadir (4,000 ha)
Melka Sadi A mi bar a
(750 ha)
Others
( 800 ha)
Upper and | Middle
Valley
Lower |
Valley
Total I
‘ i 0. 36
F                         0. 80
M                       0. 80
A                              0. 62 M                             0. 08 J                               0. 62
J                              1, 20
t
1
-
-
-
,  A
iO
IK
5
0. 14
0. 32
0. 32
0. 24
0. 03
0. 24
0. 48
0. 7 0
0. 78
o  s.^
r
\-
1        Year
LJ
I. 76
1. 96
1. 48
I. 12
j 0. 2U
( 0, 9 l
4. 88
4. 96
6. 72
6. 80
7. 60
8 56
8. 00
6. 80
6. 56
5. 92
5. 20
4. 48
6. 37
0, 32
0. 32
0, 48
0. 4 8
0. 52
I. 84
2. 48
3. 40
3- 92
3, 24
2. 44
0. 92
1. 69
0. 13
0. 30
0. 30
0. Z3
0. 03
0. 23
0. 45
0. 66
0. 73
0. 55
0. 42
0. 07
0. 34
0. 44
o, ua
0, 36
5. 83
6. 70
8. 62
8. 37
B. 26
II. 49
12. 61
13. 32
13. 95
II. 78
9. 62
5, 75
9. 69
14 23
19. 28
26. 69
30. 55
25. 21
-
-
9. 66  j
------------- '---- 1
5. 83
6. 7 0
a. 62
8. 37
8. 26
25. 72
31. 89
40. 01
44. 50
36. 99
9. 62
5. 75
19. 35
L
L
------------——1
Table L7TOTAL WATER REQUIREMENTS ACCORDING TO SURFACES ASSUMED IN THE 3rd 5-Y EAR PLAN (cu. m/sec)
Nura Era
I
Months             and Tibi la (6,500 ha)
1. 17
2. 60
2. 60
2. 01 0. 26 2. 01
3. 90 5. 72 6. 37 4 81
3. 64
0. 65
2.97
I
; Metahara (8, 000 ha)
Abadir (4, 000 ha)
0. 32
0. 32
0. 48
0. 48
Melka Sadi and Amibara
(10, 750 ha)
7. 09
7. 20
3. 33
1. 61
Others (800 ha)
0. 14
Upper and Middle Valley
I 3. 60
I29,660 ha)
 Lower
Valley
T otal
4. 88
4. 96
6 72
6. 80
0. 32 15. 40
0. 32 13. 45
0. 24 11. 14
7. 60              0. 52
0. 03
8.41
8 56
I. 84
8. 00              2. 48
0. 24                12. 65
4. 62                   0. 48
6. 80
6. 56 5.92
5. 20 4. 48
6. 37
3. 40
3. 92
5. 37
19. 48 21.99 28. 38
14. 99
14. 23
19. 28
26. 69
30. 55 25. 21
13. 60 15. 40 13. 45
11. 14
8. 41
26. 88
38. 76 48.   68 5 8.  93 40.   20
14.  08
8. 60
24. 84
i
0. 70
0. 78
0. 59
2. 36
2. 47
0. 44                14. 08
0. 08
8. 60
1. 69
0. 36                15. 18
9. 66
-4
p
CT-lOJAt. WAlb-'U REQUIREMENTS A <7<?O J< F> IJMCJ TO SURt ACK.S ASSUMED IN THE ^rrt FIVE-YEAR r>L_A.M MELKA SADI -AMIBARA ^CREASED TO 20. UUU ha
(cu. m/sec)
/ Nura Era
/ and  Tibi la
/ (6. 500 ha)
/ Metahara
/ (fl, 000 ha)
Abadir (4, 000 ha)
Melka Sadi
and Amibara
(20,000ha)
Others
(800 ha)
Upper and 
Middle
Valley
Lower           1
Valley            1
(29. 660)         1
Total              \
1
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
s
o
1 N
D
1        Year
1.17
2. 60
2. 60
2. 01
0. 26
2. 01
3. 90
5. 72
6. 37
4. 81
3. 64
1           0. 65
1           2. 97
4. 88
4. 96
6. 72
6. 80
7. 60
8. 56
8. 00
6. 80
6. 56
5. 92
5. 20
4. 48
6. 37
0. 32
0. 32
0. 48
0. 48
0. 52
1.84
2. 48
3. 40
3. 92
3. 24
2. 44
0. 92
1.69
13. 20
13. 40
6. 20
3. 00
-
-
8. 60
10. 00
20. 00
0. 80
4. 40
4. 60
7. 10
0. 14
0. 32
0. 32
0. 24
0. 03
0. 24
0. 48
0. 70
0. 78
0. 59
0. 44
0. 08
0. i6
19. 71
21.60
16. 32
12. 53
8. 41
12. 65
23. 46
26. 62
37. 63
15. 36
16. 12
I 0. 73
18. 49
-
-
-
-
14. 23
19. 28
26. 69
30. 55
25. 21
-
-
9. 66
1
19. 71
21.60
16. 32
12. 53
8. 41
26. 88
42. 74
53. 31
68. 1 8
40. 57
16.12
10. 73
28. 1 5
_______UPPER AND MIDDLE VALLEY
WATER SHORTAGES FOR SURFACES ALREADY RECLAIMED OR UNDER RECLAMATION (cu. m/sec)137
TableZi
<
<
>
i-
I-
> <r>
J
J
J
<
H
I
y 
J 
2
4
z
<
>Z
—•
3
2
□
7)
n
<
5
<
V
c
k 
z k
u
0
5x ]
£
3
k
k
f/i -a
c
o
YearJPPER AND MIDDLE VALLEY - WATER SHORTAGES FOR SURFACES ASSUMED IN THE 3rd FIVE-YEAR PLAN MELKA SADI-AMIBARA INCREASED TO 20, 000 ha
I Lm
OO_age monthly discharges of the Awash at Melka Werer (averaae discharges ol >he Awash river a. Awash station . average
0,0         7 r»e  of the Kesem river at Awora Melka + average monthly
8
!’^th‘Kebena river)'
amination of the three tables shows that, in the three hypotheses monthly average discharges at Melka Werer are always more than 
hC sTto be diverted for the irrigation areas of the Upper and Middle ViUeys. Thus, excepting possible deficits within the context of the in dividual months it appears that the areas of the irrigation districts of Melka Sadi-Amibara can be extended from 10, 750 to 20, 000 ha.
A similar comparison has been made for the discharges to be diverted during the various months of the year for all the irrigation areas in the Valley with corresponding values of the average monthly discharges of the Awash river measured at the Dubti section (Tables 23, 24 and 25).
Table 23 for hypothesis (a) above, shows that at the Dubti section the average monthly discharges of the Awash river are greater than the discharges to be diverted for the various irrigation areas. In other
words it is possible to meet the requirements of the irrigation areas already reclaimed or in process of reclamation (the deficits of 3 cu,m/sec ‘n June 1967 and 2 cu. m/sec in July 1965 are, in our opinion, more than acceptable, bearing in mind both the percentage of the discharges to be diverted and the approximation with which the calculations have had to
made).
1*4 bl
hand” and ^5. for hypotheses (b) and (c) above, show, on the other
(the d TUCl1 1710re serious deficits, particularly in the month of July 1965 
Thu, * *Clt °
f 2 CU   m sec
-   /    relative to February 1963 is considered irrelevant), 
-on a,1 Would not be possible to meet the requirements of all the irriga- di 6chawaS Unless the areas to be reclaimed are reduced or the available
ges  increased.
increasing available discharges can be obtained (a) by A *lsh riv  . regUlation rates Koka dam- However, the length ot t e
e
'*ten8iv?2tWeen the dam and the Lower Valley and the presence o 
8to ^n
c   niar8hes at Gewani may make this solution ineffective;
nn 'd 4 th U°Od fl°WS in the neighborhood of Tendaho, as already on the suggestion of the FAO report.WHOLE VALLEY - WATER SHORTAGES FOR SURFACES ALREADY RECL Al XL ED OR UNDER RECLAMATION
(cu. m/sec)in/kcc)
1                Awash R. Flow at Dubti
/ “■—1
2963
1964                  1965                     1966                   1967
Total             \ Water             I Requir.
Water
Shortage i
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
5
°
N
1  Year
44
20
21
92
119
50
60
148
220
79
48
41
78
48
44
35
71
45
33
220
430
260
117
56
146
125
37
33
43
78
42
27
30
119
93
67
59
4 3
55
38
6 3
54
64
41
33
37
103
113
89
48
33
59
25
40
25
58
80
23
76
239
80
124
77
14
15
1 3
11
8
27
39
49
59
40
14
9
25
-
-
-
-
4
9
-
-
-
•
-
1whole valley .
WATER SHORTAGES FOR SURFACES ASSUMED IN THE 3rd F1V
PLAN .
- MELKA SADI AM1BARA INCREASED TO 20. 000 h (cu. m/sec)
Awash R. F]
E year
T otal Water
Requir
J
1 48
<120
220
4 SO
260
117lthough    much    less    satisfactory,    would    be    to    move    the Another    ’oluti°^n    sowing    in    the    irrigation    areas    of    the    Lower    Valley    to 
.  riing ot c°
n
seeding irrigation over a longer period, in those
July     °r       t0       ’^'^wash     flows     are     particularly     small     (as     occurred     in     l%3 
te3fJ when the
agronOmic point of view, these measures should
nd               Fr°k-fve effect on cotton cultivation - the main crop grown
not have a Pr
m the Lo*’er VaU y
set    out    are    valid    at    the    level    of    average    monthly    dis-
The considerations^
since, for the time being, no large storage
charges in the w lated in addition to that at Koka. it is necessary to 
reservoir is C°" efluctuations between the daily discharges and the cor-
^ndmg Average monthly discharges are contained within acceptable
limits.
a    to    the    irrigation    areas    in    the    Lower    Valley,    a    comparison 
Aith regar
between the series of average dal y 
daily discharges during the two deficient
g                  K                            which
discharge values are at present avauauxc/
—«' 
j “‘r“x 
.* 
- nnta;ned
™r.,hly     di,charges     show     that     .he     fluctuation,     are     uormall.     coat. between I 0 and 20%. In these two months the requir
charges to be diverted, are clearly less than 
the    conveyance    capacity    of    the    irrigation    network    is    thus    s enable all the running flows to be diverted.
A different situation arises in the irrigation areas of the
and above all in the Melka Sadi-Amibara. The instantaneous
m
ir -c the average daily discharges of the Awash river,  ^°^
a
e
Months of scant flows, are considerably affected by vana 10 ljrblned discharges of the hydroelectric generating plants o -
n (and. i„ the future, by Awash III) and _^omparison with average monthly values, may even
.
of
St Mi n
Wde, thTeC°r^ed ^urin antaneous discharges of the Awash at Awash 
O
minati°n of the i
na .
' 8 8uffjc U a COrnpens-ir W° ^-day periods, has shown, at least as a *he to regulate th^ Ca^acit^ in t*  order of 1-2 million cu.m
le
rr| ^ti
o  nCS which th 6 WeckJy flows. The topographic conformation 
^ S|ib] * ^strict are to lntal<e stI*uctures of the Melka Sadi and Amibara
e
of ° Cr*ate this ° sited such as to lead to the belief that it is
Version Work
y
St °ra£e CaPac^X through a modest increase in the144 -
Comparing the water requirements of the Upper and Midd]
tion Areas with the average weekly discharges of the Awash Vall*ZIrr'| calculated for the Melka Werer section, it has been noted that****’ ** discharges are always sufficient. However, the short time s the’e
cannot be confidently taken as fully representative. 
Therefore, the water requirements of the Upper and Middle Awash are- have been compared with the average weekly discharges calculated for two series of "ideal" years, i. e. one with the hydroelectric plants taking an average annual discharge of about 37 cu. m/sec (as in 1 965), and the other with these works taking an average annual discharge of about
25 cu. m/sec (as in 1 967).
This comparison has shown that in both cases the average weekly dis charges are still sufficient to cover irrigation needs.
To sum up, it can be stated - with all the reservations necessary at this stage of the study, since the series of data are not yet complete and only partial elaborations are available - that it is possible to reclaim and 
irrigate the Areas indicated in the 3rd Five-Year Plan, extending the
area of the Melka Sadi-Amibara Area from 10. 750 to 20, 000 ha, prowt:
the following assumptions are accepted:
The      cropping      patterns      and      the      water      requirements tion Areas remain as previously indicated;
The AVA possesses such legal and technical enable it to control and, if necessary, to limit di«c from the Awash river and its tributaries;
er *csavailj^
o f the various
(s a s
e8  divert^
24 hours out^
their own irrigation allocations from the Aua5^
networks to the rtve^ TelUrn the waters collected by their W
Management      of      the      Koka      reservoir      and      the      relative      hydroel^^.. plants is carried out on criteria analogous to those followC
h
It    is    accepted    that    for    the    Irrigation    Areas    in    the    Lower    A**8 one of the indicated remedial measures is taken.3. INVESTMENT COSTS
Main Works have been grouped under the following
items:
Headworks: diversion weirs, dykes
Irrigation     and     drainage     network:     main     and     secondary     canals;     main and secondary drains;
Field irrigation and drainage; tertiary canals and tertiary drains; Road system: main and link roads.*;
This grouping takes into account the fact that some of the works, being of a public character, will have to be constructed and managed by the Awash Valley Authority, while the others will remain in private hands. According to whether a specific work comes under one heading or the other, the system of cost calculation will vary, especially concerning engineering and overheads.
^..altogether preliminary basis, the costs of the items specified 
ofthe^aVC ^Cen WOrked out only in order to make an initial selection 
the 8 Various croPping patterns and to obtain an order of magnitude of
uusia win not cnange tne results co any great i  Lost estimation, the following criteria have been followed.
n
"*
wu
‘ onal elem
wei rs, dykes, etc.,
been obtai 6ntS ^ose contained in the FAO Report have
cpe ^ented to 
Costs 9u°ted therein have been taken, in e acc°unt of rising prices since 1964.
estimates have been made of the costs.• 146 -
However, 
to set out
since        they        are        indicative        values, a high and a low cost estimate
In      short,      for      all      the      items obtained:
Low          cost          assumption High cost assumption
Rates of return have been
specified above,
it has been preferred
i he following have been
1,800 Eth. $/ha
2, 300 Eth. $/ha
calculated for both assumptions- 147 -
4. farm investments
4.1
GENERAL
The estimate of these investments has, for the moment, only an indicative value. It has been made by reference to the informa tion collected on the farms situated in the vicinity of the Study Area, and should be regarded as an average of a range,
The on-farm investments include all the measures in the form of works and capital necessary to enable rational land-use. They include:
-    land reclamation works
-    land settlement works
-    investments for agricultural development.
4.2 land reclamation works
These     refer     to     all     the     preliminary     works     necessary     for     beginning cultivation and for the irrigation of the lands and include:
bush and tree clearing stone clearing
' grubbing
land levelling fa rm roads.»11
- 148 -
3 eUSH AND TREE CLEARING
A first estimate of the tree and bush cover ha  been mad 
a
various on 
course to a pr The bush, of m
-site inspections effected in the area and by h/ dUriflg eliminary interpr etation of the air photogrl'l”  **’
8
edium density, is formed of xerophytes and ** 
about 90% of the area. In order to eliminate this, the ... C,°Ver’ dium-powered machinery is envisaged for an average of-lour hours/ha. The operation would be completed and the bust Gurnt by hand taking an averages/ 18 working days_pex-ha. The tree cover, represented mainly by acacia, affects about 10% of the area. The tree clearing operation includes a first passage with bulldozer for 5. 30 hr/ha, the work being completed by hand, in cluding the burning of waste. Twenty-one working days and a passage with bulldozer to uproot and eliminate the trunks for one
hr/ha, would be required.
operations have thus beer-
The cost of the bush and tree clearing
estimated as follows:
Bush clearing
-    machinery
Eth. $ 
97. 00
-    labour
Eth. $ 
00
Total
Eth. $ 120.
 00
Tree clearing
machinery
labour
Eth. $ 
Eth. $
154. 00
26. 00
Total
Eth. $
180. 00
The    cost    per    hectare    would    thus    be    on    average x 0. 10) equivalent to Eth $ 1Z6- 149 -
stone clearing
Th e area, represented by alluvial soils with large amounts of
sm all and silty materials, is generally without stones and pebbles. 
Only in small areas, which are estimated to amount to about 5%
of the area, will limited measures be necessary.
Stone     clearing     will     be     carried     out     with     medium-power     machinery equipped    with    blade    and    with    a    bucket    loader    and    a    small    supple mentary labour force for finishing operations.
The cost of the stone clearing operations has been estimated as follows:
- stone-clearing machinery
- loading machine and dumper
- hand finishing Total
EthS     100. 00
Eth$        80. 00
Eth$       20. 00
Eth$      200. 00
The resulting cost per ha is thus on average (200 x 0. 05) equi
valent to Eth$ 10.
4,5 grubbing
Sin 
beje       8°^s          Question      are      hard      and      have      not      previously 
Qr        c^tvvated,     and     also     in     consideration     of     the     mainly     clayey 
nar
nature     of     many     of     these,     it     is     considered     that     prelimi-
^ls^irUbbing         tO         a         depth         of         50’60         cm      is         essential.      This      would a lread     lrn^Jla^e        slumps     and     major     roots     of     the     native     plants and      WoujreniOVed’      This      measure      would      precede      land      levelling, 
u  also facilitate the latter operations. Grubbin
e quipp J
e    w°uld be carried out by medium-power machinery ^ith grubbing ploughs or ripper.
Th
P   ha of this operation is estimated at EthS 45.
cr- 150 -
4. 6 LAND-LEVELLING
This has been estimated on the basis of the follow*
that 70% of the area has
that 20% of the area has
that 1 0 % of the area has
8UnWJ5l.
a slope of leSs than ]
a slope of between 1 and 
a slope of between 3 and fef
- that, after levelling, the irrigation plot slope will bl. , 
over a length of 300 m. 
The following earth movements have been prcliminarly estimated
-     soils with a slope of less than 1%,. 200 cu. m/ha x 0. 7
- soils with a slope between 1-3%o , 800 cu. m x 0. 2 = 160 cu.m
-    soils with a slope of between 3-6%a, 2000 cu, m/ha x 0. I 200 cu. m
Giving a total of 500 cu. m/ha on average.
01 1 %
Land     levelling     is     subdivided     from     the     operational     standpoint     .... to two stages:
-     rough levelling, using trailed scrapers and dozers power. During this stage of operations, proper ear will be effected and the planned level obtained.
-    Finishing of the levelled surfaces, by means of 1 gTtlall scrapers or motor-levellers, which eliminate
local deformities.
The cost per ha of land levelling is
rough levelling
- finishing Totals
estimated as foil
EthS 332 EthS 43 Eth$ 375- 151
FIELD TRACKS
It is considered that at the sides of the tertiary irrigation canals there will be field tracks to provide access to the irrigation unit for which a size of 1, 650 x 300 m is assumed, the latter figure being the distance between two adjoining tertiary canals. The resulting incidence is about 35 m/ha. It is assumed that the
track will be about 4 m wide and that it will be in compacted earth.
The estimated cost per ha of the work is: Eth. $ 70.}
The annual costs of maintenance for these tracks are estimated to be 5% of the initial investment.
CONCLUSION'S
hi land reclamation investments are burdened with an addi-
tional I s contengmeies.
*r o wiii’k? UP’
Or en
g  cering and overheads and a further 10% for
in
overall cost per hectare of land reclamation works
Bush and tree clearing Stone clearing
Grubbing
Land levelling
Field tracks
Total above
Engineering and overheads Gontengencie s
Total
15%
10%
Eth.     $ 126
Eth.     $ 10
Eth.     $ 45
Eth.     $ 375
Eth.     5 70 Eth.     s 626
Eth.     $    94
Eth.     $    63
Eth. $ 783- 152 -
q LAND SETTLEMENT WORKS
Land settlement works include houses for farrrn-
farm stores and offices. 
\ In-the event that all thej0,-000 ha arc occupied by industrial
farms, the construction of 60 modern housing units will be nc sary for the management and clerical employees with their re- * spective families, and 1000 "chica" rooms for semi-skilled workers (each having one room) and 20. 000 "chica" rooms for unskilled workers (1 room for three persons) (I)
It is expected that the costs of maintaining the building will be borne by the occupants.
With regard to farm stores, the various cropping patterns already described in Part !! ,3.6 have been taken into consideration. The storage capacity tor the cropping patterns including cotton has been taken in the proportion of 25% of the cotton output, bearing in mind that the produces picked in successive phases and over
a fairly long period of time. This storage capacity is such as
to enable ample space to be provided for storing and processing the other products which enter into the cropping pattern for cotton.
S and *ork
ers
For the cropping pattern that excludes cotton, the storag<
ca  a
-
city has been calculated on the basis of the production ot n
providing for the storage of 50% of the total product, uhec. 
production occurs in two seasons.
Still on  the basis of the organizational structure ot the it farms,  provision  has also  been  made for the investment, sary for offices and the relative fittings and rquipnient.
lor stores and offices, maintenance costs have al*»o
side red as 2% annually of the costs of investment.
Or. all the investments an amount of 15% of the initial ^^5 arx vestment has been calculated for engineering and ov<-r
10% for contingencies.
(1) Reference has been made to constructions in U*  m u?
i been co11' 
(r i 1
e
farms of Metahara and Nura Era.- 153 -
•nvestment co T he inve»»- follows:
sts for land settlement are summarized
as
(‘thousand Eth$)
Hem. 
C ropping 
Pattern
-----------
A
B
AC
BC
Hoaie'
4,354.0
4, 354. 0
4, 354. 0
4, 354. 0
Stong®
427. 7
891.4
1, 485. 0
1, 881. 0
Oflicei
ZOO. 0
200. 0
200. 0
200. 0
Contingencies, overheads Engineering (25%)
1, 245.4
1, 361.4
1. 509. 7
1, 608. 7
Total
6. 227. 1
6, 806.8
7, 548. 7
8 . 043.7
4.10 INVESTMENTS FOR AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT
In this part of the study are' considered only the investments re lative to farm machinery and implements. Investments for livestock, cattlesheds and equipment have been detailed in Part II,
%
ha^ been calcu— 
s
The requirement for machinery and imp en^  of the cropping latcd on the basis of the average requir
pattrrns examined, reference being ma
^a^les      per      fortnight      in      peak      periods,      assu UWhour day.
a
hourly time-  utilization of
following scheme shows the equipm investments, always within the hypothesi* cial farms.
pnt and relative cost of
000-ha commerMachinery and 
125 HP tractors 65 HP tractors Ploughs 6D
Harrows Graders Ditchers T railer s Planters
Nq
60 150
60 60
60 60 50
Knapsacks                                                          35 4 00
6 2. 800 8, 900
2, 800 1. 970 7, 000 1. 050
3, 000 3, 000
420 63
150 105
Other equipment                                                                                250                        100 625
The implementation of the according to the following Hr. 
on-farm      investments      is      provided      for
gram for bringing the lands i a)       Land reel
owing     timetable,     in     conformity     with     the     pro- ----- s into cultivation:
b)
c)
-------- amation works - in 4 years from the year in which 
the lands of the irrigation area are brought into cultivation.
Land    settlement    works    -    in    3    years    from    the    year    in    which the lands of the irrigation area are brought into cultivation.
Machinery and implements - in 3 years from the year *n which the lands of the irrigation area are brought into ci vation. The first three lots will be completed in the first three years, whereas the 4th lot, which represents ab0U#1)eB 14% of the total investment is reached in the lOth_yea ' , j j), 
the agricultural activities will be increased (see P*rtcr  P?
patterns set out in section above and the resulting yields T*  °  Xncosts have been elaborated, so as to provide series of costs ard CUlt7nOS for different cropping patterns. The alternative cropping pat-
r»n the basis of a n
‘ farmers alone, on the basis of large units (5, 000 ha gross each), 
aS  the most economic solution;
M no account has yet been made of the possibility of leasing parts of
the project for smaller size farms (of, say, 200-400 ha each); this
solution is likely to be more costly than that of development through 
large industrial farms, mainly because of the heavier burden of
overhead costs in the smaller size hypothesis. However, at a later
stage of this study a fuller analysis of this farm size will be carried 
out;
J  an alternative assumption of development, wherein about 5, 000 ha
?re reserved for development by settlers;
assumption of alternative cropping patterns which permit the nclusion of livestock for dairy and meat production; this is based
e  utilization of crop residues (mainly groundnut forage) as well 41  on forage crops;
and me
a ^ternat^ve cropping patterns which exclude dairy production- frk:- obtained by using as a rotational crop
pltt,>anrnaltlOn        °n        keePin8     about     10%     of     the     total     irrigable     area     for
°n a preh^ °^ ’
r8
has been allocated to vegetable production,
5e ^ng prof.nar^ basis, even though the market prospects for
e ^ect of a y 
entire output of vegetables are uncertainjthe
Ch ^ked (a S Ta8SUmption on the rate of return has, however, beeng)      an assumption as to the amount of double
cropping      patterns;      this      has      been      taken,  ra'tb? ‘
ratheP nr8         arf°ktr /'     *■> rather arbltra ■■
&U         al‘*r -. 
levels      indicated      in      11-3-4      ,      even      though      it      i«\      rrtrily,      at          v‘
n
after a period of familiarization with continuou- preventing the virtually full utilization of ir]
by industrial farms - twice a year, may become l  -
r, S»ted l
us  rulin’,'h*'-
an(|l
e
second stage of the study will introduce new
, 
ject, also taking into account water availability, and lh
Se ’ Vere - The
-
r ' a s urn pt j Qyx „
elaborations       must       therefore       be       viewed       as       conservativ 
of more intensive cultivation after a period of, 3ay j*
rate     of     return     is,     however,     not     very     large,     due     to     the     leg 
J on th*« m. 
Present
th «inflUenct 10  *ear8 on the
of later years in such calculations;
an assumption on the yet imperfectly known soil characteristic
of the area; it has bee n_c on side red that only one half of the soiLs n the Project Area would be suitable for cotton growing’ while no such limit has been imposed on tobacco growing. Furthermore, it has been assumed that areas which cannot be cultivated (because of high elevation, salinity, rockiness) inside the Melka Sadi-Amibara area will be substituted by areas of the same size in Angelele, so as to keep the total area unchanged. This assumption is valid to the
extent that bad lands are a small fraction of the total irrigable area
-Jser weight
j) an assumption on yields for different crops unde • industrial farming conditions, which change with time, and a >in i’ ssumptionon yields under settlement conditions (Table Zto.
k) an assumption on the level of manpower efficiency for the
(1 Afar labor unit - 0. 7 Highlanders’ labor units), based °n pn
Consultant's judgment, and progressively raised, as
tirn e
f  ^vCj. 
and technical assistance is provided, to the Highlanders
I)       price assumptions (see Table 26 
) which take into 
populati°n
likely consumption of crops produced in the area b> t
which will reside in the area, and the likely export rn<
the      agricultural      sector      no      serious      problems      should      ar’      4         cUmstanC In
hypotheses
----------------------------  • vell-fcn°wn cl*
have       been       restricted       to       sufficiently       w
and the assumptions conceiv__
zed with very conservative- 157 -
Table 26
i1eU)5
T PRICES- industrial farms development  AND UNIT PK
Years 1-10
Years 11 -30
Description
Output
Price/^1
(Eth. $ )
Value
Output
per ha
(qi)-
per ha
per ha
(ql)
Price/
(ql)
(Eth. $)
Value
per ha
(Eth. $)
(Eth. $)
Crops
Tobacco
1, 950
3, 230
Cotron
936
1, 188
Vegetables
375 3
17. 5
5, 250
Maize
30
501
16. 70
668
Groundnuts,
18
22
399. 6
22. 2
510. 6
beans
16
25
400
500
Live
weight
(kg/head)
Price
Eth.$/kgj
Bulk
Cox-j
600
0. 40
360
lifers
0. 35
'“’••'ma..)
360
0. 50
175
0. 50
1 liter
0.37^) 0. 20(B)
tQ tal
Ou, UtPUt 18 lCa® than 3- 180 tOnS-
ex cess of 3, 180 tons.Some doubt can be sustained only in case where the not sufficient. One of the most remarkable examples^ *
1   31’16 data
given by the climatic conditions, where the scarce nu *" '“’Peet* 
years available does not guarantee that the seasons ch^ °f record«S
identified up to now will be confirmed if observation a ract«ri tj
8   Cg
 * 
longer period. Consequently, it is possible that the ' °nt,nues over a of the crops may be modified. 
These changes would, it is thought, be practically ne 1
would not visibly change the technical and economic ‘8eab,e> and forecast.
P r°sent calen<jaj. re sults actuajjyinvestments and overheads
of investments which are linked to different crops and T hemain lt®  ’ ; duded in this part of the study are:
rn
n
w!a chhave b
nts for tobacco: investment costs are based on actual
ll
Drying P
Tobacco Monopoly (see Table 27 ); operation
eX?efl        e     included     in     the     cultivation     costs     of     tobacco     . costs are
>1
farm
based essentially on tobacco,cotton and maize needs, 
the     leading     crops,     and     assuming     that     other     rotat4ional
crops     can     be
accomodated in the space left over by cotton and tobacco.
c’  Housing, which has been calculated for the Project Area as a whole, assuming that local materials and low standard housing will suffice.
Overhead expenditures in industrial farms have also been provisionally estimated (see Tables 28, 29, 30 , 3 1).
Inaddition, very preliminary estimates of investment by AVA in offices ax storage areas have been made along with similarly approximate estimates for the running costs of the AVA establishment in the Project
•kea see Tables 2930,31). The assumptions on the investment and running c^ts for the organizations supporting the settlement have been commented 3r * section 4.
de bree°ofnWhile 9tressinS
these estimates need a considerable
n
furt ^er re^ ®nient. They do indicate, however, a particular
coiju   the organization and management of the project, which 
s
usef n  discussed. 
uy
*- 160 -
TOBACCO: INVESTMENT COST FOR DRYING PLANTS (thousand Eth. $)
Description
Area
(ha)
First
10 years
Remaining 20 years
Total
’’Cropping Pattern A"
16.200
Curing Plants
Stores
’’Cropping Pattern B"
32, 400. 0 1, 701.0
227. 0
32, 400.0 1, 928.0
10, 800
Curing Plants
Stores
’’Cropping Pattern AC”
21.600.0
1. 134. 0
151.^
21,600.0 1, 285.2
7, 200
Curing Plants
Stores
"Cropping Pattern BC"
14, 400. 0
756. 0
100. 8
14, 400.0 856. f
4. 800
Curing Plants
Stores
9, 600. 0
504. 0
67. 2
~  Curing Plants (4 ovens) for 10 ha (2 seasons) -
te
coSt
9, 600-c 571.2
Eth 5
•
foJ* 11         ’
Stores (for 1/5 of dry leaf output)
’ Eth^ 3^^*- 161 -
Table 28 
qvERhEAD EXPENDITURES: INDUSTRIAL FARMS
A)     Qrg
anizational Set-up per 5, OOP ha
Main Organization
I General Manager
1 Agricultural Advisor
1 Assistant
I Irrigation Supervisor
3 Foremen
3 Guards
1 Accountant
I Secretary
1 Resident Engineer
1 Assistant
5 Drivers
I Store Manager
I Chief Mechanic
1 Sales Expert
Farm Unit (1,000 ha each)
5 Unit Managers
5 Supervisors
5 Accountants
5 Foremen
Tobacco Curing
1 Manager
5 Assistants
2.0 Caporals
10 Guards
B).  Overhead Expenditures p  —j--------------c-- n00 n    -----    * (Eth* $)-
er
a
Personnel
Police
Medical Services
Vehicle fleet
Other expenditures 45, 600
Total
356,400
5,000
15,000
79,465
501,465ORGANIZATIONAL SET-UP OF AVA IN THE PROJECT at,
1 area
Manager
Hydraulic Engineers Civil Engineer
Chief Accountant Accountants
Secretaries
Engineering Assistants Skilled Workers Drivers
Means of Transportation Land Rovers- 163 -
Table 30
annual OVERHEAD EXPENDITURES BY AVA
Descripti°n
Eth. £
p erson^ ^
c
Means of transportation
Others(l)
Total (2)
Muitenance
157. 800
60, 400
21, 800
240. 000
Stores
Offices
J 2% of investment cost
( per annum
1  Insurance, police, light and power, etc.
nnel expenditures are assumed to increase 12% every 5 years Table 317. COMPENSATION COSTS
r  their legal rights on the lands of the Project Area, the nomads Wb3teVer resent in Melka Sadi-Amibara consider the area as theirs, hVing ^ P cUpied it since a8e immemorial? In these circumstances, 
c
MVing ° f the area for irrigation should be accompanied by adequate
o
thC  .sation to the nomads. If the settlement is carried out, a large
^ber of nomads will find their compensation in the allocation of
settlement lands and in the higher income they will obtain. For the
-est of the nomad population, compensation might theoretically be
limited to a guarantee of employment as laborers in the future irrigated farms; the income they would obtain in this way would be considerably larger than the income they have at present. However, compensation through employment is unlikely to satisfy the nomads, particularly 
because it would entail a complete change in t'n^r traditional way of
life and also because nomads working as laborers would earn less than 
the settled nomads.
has been therefore assumed (see also above II, 3.7) that compensation could take the form of a reconstitution of pasture conditions in the Alledeghi ph.ns, adjacent to the Project Area, by the creation of water points, which 
ould permit year-round pasture. The costs of such water points should 
■ -«:ore be charged to the Project Area.
e8. SETTLEMENT
:e
sumptions for the settlement are:
.  basicaS5 r
community organization, permitting overall crop planning, economy 1  o/means of production and ease in the provision of technical assistance;
a lower degree of efficiency, during the formative period, for the ° nomads vis-a-vis Highlanders, reflected in higher cultivation costs;
a lower yield, improving during the formative period, for both the nomads and Highlanders vis-h-vis industrial farms, as the result of lesser accuracy in performing cultural operations;
dijanecd to fully exploit the available family labor, without recourse uo temporary laborers;
• a need to provide subsistence crops (for obtaining milk, maize and beans) in the cropping pattern of both types of settlers.
Prices and yields are shown in Table 32.
of these assumptions arc reflected in notional numbers, as they difficult to quantify on a statistical basis. Their main purpose is to 
d*f^culti s that a large-scale settlement is to overcome.
e
Provideone that can only be guessed approximately, is to 
of rot ' Quantitative idea of the cost of the settlement, in terms of loss
ie nirns yj- i
-vis concessionaries  development.
1- 168 -
YIELDS AND UNIT PRICES:               SETT
1.EM ENT     c
°nditioNs
Years 1-10
Years H-30
Desc ription
Output
per ha
(qi)
Price/qJ
(Eth. $)
Value per     ha (Eth. $)
Output per ha
(qi)
Pric</
qi
(Eth. $)
Crops
T ubacco
Maize
Ciroundnuts
Beans
Livestock
Bulls
Cows
He fers Calves (males)
Milk
12
24
14. 5
13
Live
Weight (kg /head
600
360
360
175
1 liter
100
G
22. 2
25
Price
(Eth.$/kg)
0. 40
0. 35
0. 50
0. 50
0. 37(a)
0. 20(b)
1 . 200          1 3. 5           150          2. 401          32                  16.7
322         21                  22. 2
325
18
25
It    total    output    is    less    than    3,    180    tons, for output in excess of 3, 180 tons.IV. PRIORITY OF CROPPING PATTERNS AND RATES OF RETURN7
A- 171 -
1. GENERAL
The above assumptwn^and elaborations have bee
. olts and benefits, and in terms of rates of retnr eXpressed in terms af
give the detailed listing of costs and benefits for th nnex D
<Ta les 1 3)
b
/erentassumptions. The results are summariz d b Pr°jeCt’ uncJer <H-
1)H^TELOPMENT by industrial farms rates of return (t)
Low Invtilment coat ■■■umption
Without lirw®tock(l)
With liveatock
High mviitmint cost ■■■umptifn Without livestock (1)                With liwtoek
Market
Rate®
Real
Rateo
Market
Rate®
Real
Rate®
Market
Rate®
Real
Rate®
Market
Rate®
Real Rate®
Cropping pattern 'A
23
27
A'
22
25
A
21
24
A’ 20
23
A
Cwr AC
21
24 •
B'
20
23
B
19
22
B* 18
21
19
22
AC ' 11
21
AC
17
19
AC' 16
19
BC   17              20
BC » 16               19               BC       15              IB               BC 14               16
B) SETTLEMENTS RATES OF RETURN Low InvtitrTunt      colt assumption
Market Real
Rate* Rate®
Market               Real
Rate® Rite®
Afar
Highlander®
1  4
1  5
I
1
J
4
Ihi
,l      niai
Without l>v®»tock
AND BY SETTLERS (CROPPING PATTERN A)
Hifh invwttneat cost aaiumption
Withoe»li™i^
*M®® 17 16
19
r «tara ha*. .
1101 ifttmd *° t>B*n calculated for cropping pattern® A u c®d. Thia correspond® to compare the benefit
, B , AL ,
B’ AC'. BC’ but a«®utning thit live-
of introducing graffllnut®
wt-.h-vi® maire:
i
’ ***»t«nent eoat aaaumption
High Uwhiwnt cot: a«®ampdon
Market
Rate*
Real
Rate®
Market
Rate®
A* 
22
20
11
Real
Rate®
23
a* 
20
25
AC
18
23
16
COtTlP®» a 
BC ’
17
21
14
21
19
16
20
n^rr-ur t««- 172 -
The irrigated areas under each crop, under different aSsu
been taken as follows:                                                                                            option, haVe Irrigated Areas /J7
Years
3-.10
£1-30
I) Development by industri-
al farms
Cropping pattern
A)        Tobacco Maize Vegetables
Total
B)        Tobacco Maize Cotton Vegetables
Total
BC) Tobacco Maize Cotton Vegetables
Total
16, 200      73. $8, 100
y 
/
1,800          z bf /ob
16,200
12,150
1,800
26, 100
10, 800
5,400
5,400
1,800
30, 150
10,800
10, 800
5,400 1,800
2 3,4 00
4, 800
2,400
1 1,400
1, 800
20,400
28.800
4, 800
9,300
11.400
1,800
27,300- 173 -
Tobacco
7,200
7,200
M»ize
3, 600
9,900
Cotton
9, 000
9, 000
Vegetables
1, 800
I, 800
Total
21,600
27,900
Cropping pattern
A’)     Tobacco Groundnuts Maize Vegetables
3-10
16, 200 8, 100
-
1,765
1 1-30
———
16,200
8, 100 4, 050
1,727
Forage                                           71                                                       146
Total
3 ) Tobacco Groundnuts Cotton Maize
Vegetables Forage
Total
B c-) T
iob
a
CC
o
Gr °ondnut8
Cotten Maize
Ve 8etabl
es
°ra
ge
Total
26, 136
10, 800
5,400
5,400
1,776
48
23,424
4, 800
2,400
11,400
1,789
22 20,411
30,223
10,800
5,400
5,400
5,400
1,752
97
28,849
4,800
2,400
11,400
6.900
1,778
44
27,3227
f
" 174 .
AC’)
Tobacco
Gr oundnuts
7 . 200
Cotton
3, 600
7- 2Oo
Maize
9, 000
3 . 6Oo
Ve 8etabl
es
9 - 000
Fopage
1. 784
300
Total
1. 763
H)
-_£Herne
Settlors
2 1.616
65
Afar
nt
—
1-15
2 7 . 928
Tobacco
Gr °undnut
16-3 0
s
MaiZe
Seans
•180
480
480
800
Total
400
400
1.440
^Janders_
1, 600
Tobacco
Maiz
e
1.800
1.800
900
2, 400
Bean®
Total
1,200
1,200
4. 500
The tot j
4. 800
aa
pr °gr* 3i
8    Ve7v a Under Jand fl inH .
thC area “nd   7tended duri
er
«g the fV  °
d  UbJ<?
 "opping. Cultivation i»
*   ^ covered u
ar
re 3 few ha fOr /
Y farmers' 
years und" 1- Excluded fro* Ora 8e crops (Afar settlement) an<^
g Fdens (both settlements).- 175 -
different cropping patterns (industrial farms assumption) Total output
Year 3
24,300
24, 300 
’ /
Year 6
3/./A
.           Tobacco Maize Vegetables
3]          Tobacco
-
45,000 y
16, 200
ft M*
-
-
Year 11
27,540
48,600
54,000
18, 360
Maize
16, 200
-
43. 200
Cotton
9,720
-
11,880
Vegetables
45,000
-
54,000
Tobacco Maize Cotton Vegetables
7, 200
7, 200
20,520
45,000
do.
-
-
-
8, 160 37,200 25,080 54,000
* C' 
Tnk
lQ bacco
10,800
12,240
Maiz
e
10.800
39,600
Cotton
16,200
19.800
Ve getablea
45,000
54,000176 -
With livestock (tobacco and cotton unchanged)
A')
Groundnuts
14,580
14,580
Vegetables
44,125
43, 175
1 8  - 6.30
Milk
2, 610
51 .81o
3, 830
Meat (I)
400
3, 830
64 0
Maize
__
710
16, 200
B’)
Groundnuts
Vegetables
9, 720
44,400
9, 720
43, 800
Milk
•2,420 52, 560
1. 740
2, 550
Meat (1)
2, 550
270
430
Maize
480
21,600
BC')
Groundnuts
4, 320
4, 32 0
5, 520
Vegetables
44,725
44,450
53,340
Milk
780
1, 140
1, 140
Meat (I)
120
190
210
Maize
-
-
27,600
AC )
1
Groundnuts
6,480
6, 480
8,280
Vegetables
44.600
44,075
52,890
Milk
1. 1 60
1,700
1.700
Meat (1)
180
290
320
Maize
-
-
25,200
(1) Data
shown under the 11th
year refer
to the 20th year
when
production is stabilized.- 177 -
CROPPING PATTERNS: RATES OF RETURN
2.
f return are, 
at this stage, purely indicative and entirely 
.
: 1be
 rates ol aSSumptionB stated in the previous sections. They are
 j*iit on tne
^complete, due to:
f cost8 and benefits for cotton ginning, vegetable condi-
the
honing >
 Jater and power supply and distribution;
Ibl
icl
. f cOialculation of costs and benefits for the family plots the lacK
in the settlement;
the limit to 30 years of the life of the project, omitting possible residual costs and benefits*
the lack of an assumption on middle-size farm; the lack of an indication of indirect benefits.
Itis not known how these factors would affect the level of the rate of return* although they are unlikely to have seriously negative effects.
case, they are tnlikely to change the order of priority among ^‘”na^ve cropping patterns. In fact, this analysis shows that the
. ° return |s rather insensitive to changes in cropping patterns, ‘^nthe patterns selected.
In these c •
project’s Curustances» the evidence collected so far indicates thal the k&’Amibara rGlurn *s satisfactory, and that investing in the Melka
a arca car* be considered a profitable undertaking.
Tile of ret
^8«Ublea i
s
USn
°  substantially affected if a crop different from
l
assigne — id t s ao t ssheigne ard t eao t  reheser avered t a ro pe  eserrveenni d tao pe l crrops enni  (10% al cr)op.
ne ed to  h
C
tn  expo 
aput
/“the export market can in all circumstances abso 
e
subject, arises from the uncertainty on ChCCk °n thi“ 8ubiect’ arises fr°™ lhe ^sorb the7whole
of the nro---
of    the    nw    rnarlcet    can    in    all    circumstances    absorb    the    whole
P °ject.
rTo prove this point, one half of such area has vegetables and the other half under a lower-rehirr
, 
-
lurn  cron (p
CcJ lo be
and the rate of return of cropping pattern A has been re g’ ^^e.i
The rates for industrial farming work out at IP®-’ •» CCalculatcd
and real costs of labor, respectively, for the high invest ° . ^rkcl
x  and 22 7 t j
sumption: these rates compare with 21% and 24%, when thCm C°5t as* for perennial crops is under vegetables. 
As expected, the introduction of settlement lowers the
C whole
the project, although its level remains at a satisfactory level it could be validly observed that the lower re turns d 
are quite independent from the economics of the cost of a particular social policy, whose ably important but not quantifiable.
X'?C°JPOt^of — However
ue to the settlerr.cnt the project, and repres„. 
economic benefits are
pro
X.
Cropping patterns A and A* - tobacco based 
highest earning of those included in the selection process, 
new development, vis-a-vis current thinking among those interested .n the development of the Middle Awash Valley which has been generally based on assuming cultivation of cotton. Quite apart from their returns, tobacco and cotton should also be viewed with respect Io their likely mar kets. Cotton could be destined mainly to the domestic market, while tobacco is for exports. Ln these circumstances, tobacco may have a slight advantage, as the domestic cotton market has not yet been fully tested against future possible supply from alternative cotton producing areas. On the other hand, production of tobacco on a large scale fo- exports depends also on a large and well-organized effort by l e
bacco Monopoly, for the handling, redrying and marketing of tbe eable While such effort should not give rise to costs (and benefits) ^harg^^ to the project, and thus would not affect the rate of return ass
- are, respectively, the This is a
cO jt-w
to     the     cropping     pattern,     it     clearly     is     a     necessary     condition     for*     -c
tion of this crop. From initial contacts with the Tobacco 
would appear that major obstacles to mounting such an °^^ratc<j in tbx* exist; but further confirmation on the basis of the data cte stQdy. report will need to be obtained during the later stages °
do?101
As already commented on in Part IL 3.7, livestock in this stQ raisi £ ‘
n
r
the consideration'that the lack of experimentation on the area makes this activity more uncertain than that o crops. Thus, rates of return are logically more rc ev
a c rop?lude the possibility of raising livestock in the hich doeS nOt 1 k had been experimented, and the results of
Ar*»-  11 liVCStnot in contradiction with the assumption used in
en
tati°  *
n
erC n  rt thcn the rates of return of the project would 
7 of this rcp°F ’ us are high enough to warrant further ?»f,U seated ab°ve-
‘ r>^nlatiOn WOfk‘V. QUESTION FOR DISCUSSIONi. general
tc apart
discussion of assumptions and elaborations
Eluded in this report, it seems necessary to pay particular
' nC ntion to a number of major points which require classifica-
4t Cn at an early stage. These points, already dealt with in de-
tail throughout this report, are briefly summarized below:
a ) Total net area of the irrigation project;
• D) Distribution of the net area among industrial farms, middle
size farms and settlers;
c) Farm-size: large vs. middle-size concessions;
d) Water availability for the irrigation project: considerations
affecting the regulation of Koka dam, the upstream and the
downstream use of water;
e)  Proposed crop yields;
f)  Proposed structure and time development of the Afar and
Highlanders settlements;
g)  Proposed treatment of compensation (Alledeghi Plains) to
non-settled Afars;
h)  Proposed exclusion of Livestock from the final cropping
pattern (except for the Afar settlement);
Proposed distribution of responsibilities (construction and
operation) for irrigation and allied works, as between AVA
an d tenants;
'mounts    allowed    for    contingencies    and    engineering;    the    treat rr ‘enl °f overhead charges in investment costs;
10 Sta '
r hng date for the implementation of the project.■z klA,OCkriQ^ OF LAND IN THE PROJ ECT AREA
As further background to  point (b) above the following  sum — marizes the present situation on land allocation in the project area.
The whole project area is a Government property’, and since
January 1962 was assigned to the AVA, the autonomous Public
Authority acting as the Government body responsible for the development of the area.
The general policy of the Governement and of AVA is to assign
the area as follows:
^»000 ha to settlement
1 0, 000 ha to Large concessions of over I, 000 ha
5* 000 ha to middle-size concessions, from 100 to 400 ha.
up to December 1968, concessions already granted by AN A Or  presently under concession are as shown >n I-1
3 5.
vqra
either £ 
applications have been forwarded to AVA
c
es « ° r conceasions from 1 00 to 400 ha. or for large con 5lOns of over 1,000 ha.
' XVA Whishes   of conces <rU ourage both, and considers the former Orrtesti  invest°nS dS des*rable ^Or encouraging private
entf
*Preneu u mcnts in agriculture and for developing domestic
ship,
n         a 1Cat*Ons be severely sifted in due time (as
c
AtUo *he fi ^PP^
^Plicants^jal' rnanagerial and technical capacities of Che the a special Committee. It can be added that
®  nted ^
ra
^°uld ’
re5ently requested surfaces under discussion are
Would cover 16, 670 ha, so that only some 3, 30Cha open to new applicants.CONCESSIONS GRANTED AND UNDER DISCUSSION
—
Concessionaires
Requested
(ha)
Granted
(ha)
Under
Discussion
(ha)
1
1 Cultivated
i
(h*)
1.     Agricultural Re sea rch Institute
2.     AVA Settlement Scheme
3.     Ainbash Private Cd, Ltd.
4.     N. R. Development Share Co.
5. Ethiopian Farm Development Co.
6.     Tobacco State Monopoly
Total
1, 320
5, 000
6, 000
3, 000
Q. ooo
I 320
5, 000
60
-
300
(4°/
-
-
290
4-6,000
2. 700
400
600
60
-
120
40  /
’ 1
16,670
6, 720
7-9, 950
1,220 '
Table 33q outside the responsibility of the Consultant to comment on the policy of land allocation in the project area, beyond
the presentation of profitability indicators for differing hypotheses on farm sizes, as shown in this report. However, the Terms of Reference clearly state that the final report should present the project in a form acceptable to interna tional financing agencies* It is therefore important to find out to what extent international financing agencies are inter ested, in lending, on whether future assignees answer to. a predetermined set of minimum performance conditions (rela ting to financial, management and institutional aspects) and whether the Second phase of the study should, albeit on an indicative basis, list such conditions.program of future activity<- 191 -
The main investigations and elaborations still u
are:
be  P«rf°rmed
I. ENGINEERING
HYDROLOGY
To finalize the data on water availability in the Awash
To     determine     Awash     river     flood     discharges     at     the     various sections under study.
To    calculate    the    drainage    into    the    Study    Area    of    the    adjoining lands.
topography
To survey the diversion sites
To stake out the alignments of the irrigation and drainage Networks and the dykes
conduct a detailed survey of typical areas to be
ca lculate the amount of land leveling
5° plot the topographic maps of the areas draining into
Study Area
* To
n ^ P the subsoil investigation points.
a192
GEOLOGY AND HYDROGEOLOGY
-      To supervir. the subsoil investigations stft . than January 1, 1969 
-     To survey the geology of the diverston sites n. of the main structures
- To frame thc hydrogeology of the Study Area.
' r ln8 °c
thc
1.4 1.4
PEDOLOGY
To complete the field investigations, probably by Marche
To      complete      the      field      laboratory      analyses      and      carryout analyses in Italy
To     prepare     the     soil     classification     and     the     land     irrigability cla s sifi cation.
Z      IR R1C1AT1Q & N GIN E ERI NG.
IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE NETWORKS
structures.hydroelectric power
To define the future electricity requirements of the area To compare the various possible hydroelectric Schemes To find the most advantageous solution among the hydro electric scheme, the thermal scheme and that of using the Koka-Dire Dawa line.
3. AGRICULTURE AND LIVESTOCK
agriculture
To consider further elaborations on climatic data for
agronomic purposes.
To    analyse    the    pedological    data    in    order    to    adapt    cultivation techniques and cropping patterns to the main types of soil..
Ca rri
re8ults of the program of investigations
Out                             Melka Werer Experimental Station for
ltle  Year 1968-69.
agricultural practices with special reference to:
a)
c)
pla ^i
ng
 times- 194 -
0
To  acquire information on the adaptability conditions of a  greater number of varietie already considered.
To make an analogous examination on the 1968-6*5 * and productive results in the farming enterprises *
in nearby areas and in similar conditions to those^ ^* vailing in the Study Area.
To make a detailed critical examination, on the basis
of fresh elements, of the various aspects of the croppy patterns already drawn up, in order to confirm or mods
them.
To make a critical revision of the cultivation techniques and productions envisaged, applying such corrections axe changes as may appear advisable.
To study the areas of alternative supply.
To
the
make    suggestions    on    the    future    prog    ram    of    activity    it Melka Werer experimental station.
3. 2                          LIVESTOCK
To analyse in greater detail the role of livestock in Afar settlement
To complete the exami
following up the water
in the next few months
To propose a research
Melka Werer Station.
agairJIVfk
4.       WJLiDLlFE
7 thC protection measures for the
e  Project's negative effects
> ,
bv°w, A
e
errnine defencc requirements, if any »Sa3nf'
y wild Animals.5. SOCIAL INVESTIGATIONS
) For the Settlement.
r  To assess the type of labour remuneration during the
x, selection phase
-    To establish financial accounts for settlers
-    To ascertain the availability of local personnel for
social services
-     To define the organization of agricultural communities
(Afar) and cooperatives (Highlanders).
M for the Alledeghi Plains
To define the organization of the range management area.
c > E-Ot the Whole Area
To      assess      the      urbanistic      layout      (houses,      villages,      ser vice centres, rural centre, etc. ).
ECONOMic and financial aspects
- To
n duct a detailed analysis of processing opportunities lize the marketing studies
draw
Up  financia| accounts for farms of different sizes
* f O
Ver
T   Us ® cultivation costs,
erssus
* f£nancial study of AVA organization and water
manpower requirements and availability Cu ^  ^°n costs, including choice of man
va
* meChanUpd operations.
n " 1 
/ OPCratiOnS-
.'.Xvci
ax
at Exdx^u^
'- 196 -
7. ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT
To conduct a study of the following.
- The Awash Valley Authority (field and central argar.izaVu Relationships with other agencies
Water rights.ANNEX A MARKET ANALYSESA. 1 INTRODUCTION
; nthis    Annex,    an    analysis    of    marketing    prospects <c0 logirally possible in Part! 1, 3. ! will be c
jiblecrops will be examined, since for some the
the  "ops listcd as
Not aU the Pos
nation   is   missing   or   they   cannot   be   marketed   aim   ”1°   marketing   infor-
riH be examined m a group, other crops which
Sonie crops
estivation    point    of    view,    have    been    excluded    on    P°S8ible    fro
ma
method of crop selection, as described in II .3 4 Each  crop  will  be  analizeri  for:
i) world demand and supply
b past trends in demand and supply in Ethiopia cl present demand situation
d) projections of future demand
■' ex-farm prices, present and projected.
1818 °f the short-cut
i 3S5eSSTTlent
likely supply of alternative agricultural
tude of
Secon<^ phase of the study, although orders of magni-
ternative sup
ply shall be provided in a few cases.
An overall a
•he last me 88UrnP^on f°  export marketing, discussed and accepted at
r
5e
 open by th'Hg °  Peering Committee, is that the Suez Canal will
f
time the Project Area is in production (1974).
hav  bee
Office, Aw obtained from: Ministry of Agriculture, Central Statistic-
e
:rsd
s    nrf*;'S , Valley Authority, FAO oublications and interviews with
er  a
Producers.
T °              the
for Projec CCtS ^normal agricultural years, the base period
' ars'
1 10,181 has been the average of the last three agricultural
pj" Pr°j«cti0
‘ the<1 thal the^r UVe been referr d to 1975 - the year in which it is ex-
e
.(j / jn WL  ^
rr
ation area will have come into production - to 1985
" Ptoduct-            the whole area will have presumably already reach ,on  ' and to 1995.2
It is assumed:
that      the      country’s      population      will      increase      at      a      rate      of
annum from the basic period 
C  °                 per
that      per      capita      GDP      increases      at      an      annual      rate      of of 2.6% from 1975 to 1985 and of 2.7% from 1985
2
to 1995>
-   5%   Up   to   l97. 
It       has       been       deemed       advisable,       for       the       sake       of       simplicity the demand projections according to a single hypothesis
to  construct
Consumption projections are the result of weighing a higher rate of
in consumption by the urban population (6 to 8% during the period co- ?' by the projection) vis-a-vis that of the rural population.
The income elasticity coefficients of consumption have been estimated by taking into account FAO studies (1), suitably adjusted on the basis of the present investigation and of the most recent trends. The same appLit for the type of demand function adopted for the estimate of future per capita consumption for each product (the most frequent, for the selected products, are the logarithmic and the semi-logarithmic).
A. I . 1 MARKETING IN ETHIOPIA
Ly  in the a„_Ehi?Pian econorny  is of the subsistence type.  Especi’ total ab  *  lCU tUra’ regions and  outlying  zones,  there is alswit Monetary  exZh  L"101167 C*chan8c- barter generally  being  used  i
fAHrV av
1 * * *        are ab°ve all in evidenc e in the urban centra
(Addis Ababa and Asmara).
(1) Agricultural Commodities - Projections
Volume II.
6/1967, monetary consumption by private
for 1975 and lq-''
'
e a8 ^
r
cu ltural sector was estimated from official s
a out Eth.$ 22 per capita per annum, while that * Agricultural sectors was about Eth. $ 300 per capita.- 3 -
weve
r. the relations between these two cities and the rest of
he country are at present undergoing a change, while the radius
of trade around the larger centres is extending. Trade in cereals, 
°ulses and oil seeds has for some time been regulated by a special organisation (the Grains Corporation). With the growing weakness of the coffee export business, traders are looking with greater interest to dealing in new crops.
Furthermore, the closing of the Suez Canal has encouraged ex porters and shippers to find new routes and means of transport more suited to the distribution of products on the international markets. Thus the number of ships with refrigeration equipment capable of making the trip around Africa has increased, while fruits and vegetables have also been sent to Europe by air cargo.
At present the possibility of using containers on the Massawa (or Assab)-Aqaba-Haifa-European ports route and on the Middle East runs is being studied.
In general, the marketing sector is sufficiently developed to rapid ly become aware of the emergence of new crops to be sold on the home market and abroad.
CRopS CONSIDERED IN THIS STUDY. SUMMARY TABLES
following pages, the products analysed (1) are: cotton
lob ac c o
8u gar cane
er eals (in particular maize)
B'\ri'ar'KCl analyses will often have to refer to group 
as a Vldyal products.
o( lack ot
 data and inform.o.n «. •"<>*- 4 -
oil-seeds (in particular, cotton-seed and pulses (beans, peas, etc. ) fruit (bananas, citrus crops, etc. )
K oundnut )
r
8
vegetables          (beans,          fresh          peas,          sweet          peppers
berb
plants, tomatoes, onions, etc.)
tte(
livestock for slaughter
milk 
eggs-
Table A-l shows the prices ex-farm which have been U8ed thr
out this phase of the study, and which result from the produJ product analysis below. Table A-2 gives the projections of cun-' 
sumption in the Project Area, on the provisional assumption of\ population of 60, 000, by the time the project reaches its full nr duction stage. The table has been used to determine the quantities on which ex-farm prices appropriate to sales in the area shouldh applied. This is a well-known procedure, based on the argument that if those products were not produced in the area, they would have to be brought in from elsewhere. Thus, sales to the area
bear prices generally higher than sales outside the area.
Table A-3 indicates the basic data used for the computational transportation costs, on the assumption that the Suez Canal is open and that the new Addis Ababa-Tendaho highway is in opera tion by the time the project starts production.
A summary Table ( A-4) shows the direction, of Ethiopian trade in recent years.
i1
r. a;v/> »• rrTtzjc ■**- vir/iAfj tr. rx- »« r.c J’xuc*-^ oj * »»•-». r.«_ r rzr-» hiiouuct* *m ■nnGi'nuj v_^:
(»:«**. ♦/*»!>
«c.>w
/ ...
1                   Actual Prices
Fwtur* Prices: 1972/73 onwards
\
iFor Sales in
(the Domestic
1 Market
* For Sales in r Foreign
Market
For Sales in
the Project
Area
For Sales in
the Domestic
Market
For Sales in \ the Foreign I
Ma rket
1        Cotton
’         Tobacco (2)
s Vegetables (3)
Maize
Groundnuts (4)
Beans (5)
Livestock
- Bulls
- Cows
- Heifers
- Calves m.
Milk
/        59. 0
/      130.0
17. 5
1        16. 5
1        30. 0
21. 0
-
130. 0
17. 5
-
54. 0
190. 0
■v.
X
190.0
-
24. 0
-
-
17. 5
16. 7
-
25. 0
17. 5
16. 7(a)
2 7.
------------rr. 5
•
22. 2
-
40. 0
35. 0
50. 0
50. 0
25 0-30. 0
-
-
-
-
40. 0
35. 0
50. 0
50. 0
37. 0
-
-
-
-
•
-
-
-
20. 0 1
-
(1)      Taking into account trends in world market price a and improvement of qualities.
(2) Prices paid by the Monopoly (average of the six grades)* both for domestic and foreign market.
(3)      Average price of eggplants and sweet peppers.
(4)      Unshelled.
(5)      prices referred to export quality only (not dry weight).
(a) For output in excess of the Project Area demand.I
^2
ESTIMATED FUTURE DEMAND OF AGRICULTURAL o
05
IN THE PROJECT AREA, 1985 ONWARds^ ^^
C rops
C e reals
-   teff
- maize
- wheat
- others
(a)
1 5 5. Q
70.0
26.5
8.5
50.0
Potatoes, other roots
V egetablus
Pulses
Fats and oils
-   vegetable oils
-   butter and ghee
-    others
19.5
13. 0
20.0
5. 1
3. 8
0.6
0. 7
Fruits
-    citrus
-   bananas
-    others
2.0
0.2
1.2
0. 6
27. 0
13.8
6. 0
2. 3
4.9
2.4
54. 3
3.2
2.5
0. 3
1.5
0. 7
27. 0
12.0
7.0
2.6
5.4
2.7
53. 0
2.0
u?
lb
41
Meat
-    beef and veal
-   mutton, lamb, goat
-   poultry
-    other (pork, camel, game)
Eggs
Milk
Sugar
3Z4
Lil
(a)      Ethiopian standard per caput consumption (kg/year - Average 1967 I
(b)      Per caput consumption (kg/year).
(c)      Total demand (metric tons).
Note:         - Population of Project Area assumed: 60. 000 
- All data are expressed in terms of food consumption (ccr®
equivalent, meat in terms of care... weight miU
than      butter      expressed      in      terms      of      freah      equivalent,      fr of fresh equivalent net of waste, etc. )
Source:          For Ethiopian Standards; FAO - Agricultural Commod
term* of
orodacU C,\ ri
1
*"
c .ecH°n< f°r
(or
anll%5.fclata      adjusted      according      to      recent      analyai*      an      re consumption; Italconsult estimatest rt»t» rh
(Llh. • /»»
£xpecH4 Gnat*
Cereal*.
Pula**,
Oil Seed*
Fruita.
Vegetable*
Raw Cotton
Live Catfl*
Tobac co
(Dry leave*)
Cereal *,
Pulse*
Fruit*
Vegetable*
Oil Seeds
(Dry L®»v«i)
Sea    freights    (4)
- Short distance
- Middle distance
- Long distance
By road
35-50
50-75
70-100
-  Project area - Assab
15-20
20-30
-  Project area. - Addis Ababa
25-35
15-20
20-30
-  Addis Ababa - Assab (5)
50-80
20-25
35-50
Ratify tariff*
- Ad di a Ababa - Djibouti
Air freight*
- Addis Ababa/As ma ra-P*rl ■/
Milan/Frankfurt
(1) Cues Canal open (via Capo 40-50% additional freight). prosent ruftd systom conditions.
(Z>     1972/73 onward* flues Canal open; new Addis Ababa - Assab highway.
(3)     According to kind r>( vegetable and preservation system (air cooling, nlr conditioning, frocaing, etc. ).
(4)     Short distance! Red Bea, Persian Gulf. Norlh-Easl African Coasts; middle distances: Eurnpo {vlit Sacs), South Asia. South Africa, etc.Jf long di ata nr ofEu rope (via Cape) Americas. Ikr Cast. etc.
(5)     Al proaent via Deaelb.
(a) Per head (minimum far sliaap and goals, maatinum for cattle).
(b)      per equare meter.
U)      By    cargo    or    passenger    aircraft.    Actual    genoral    tariffs    arei    Eth.    $    2.    39    wlmn    the    ratio    package    vulume/7.    000    <45    kg;    Eth.    $ (41    Expected eper.lsl tariff for regular cargo.
1. 80 when thia r.ltio>«5-8-
DIRECTION OF EXPORT TRADE (%). AVERAGE ,
Products
Red Sea
Persian
Gulf
Kenya etc.
Other
African
Countries
Middle
East
Countries
West
European
Countrie
Other AiUti
Livestock and mont Livestock (1 ) FTown beef Canned meat
Eggs
Cereal s (2)
Fruita
- Oranges
- Mandarines
- Lemons
Bananas
- Other fresh fruits
- Harricot beans
- Dry peas, mixed peas
- Horse beans
- Lentils
- Chick-peas
Vegetable s
Whole     peppers
- Chilly        peppers
- Other        fresh vegetables - Frozen vegetables
Starchy roots (3)
Ground       pepper       and other spices
Oil Geeds
- Groundnuts Linseeds
- Cottonseeds
- Castorbcans
- Sesame seeds
- Niger (ncug) seeds
- Rape seeds
- Other oil seeds Oil seed cakes
(1)
Mainly sheep and goats.
(2)
Mainly durrah and millet.
(3)
Mainly potatoes.
Source: Central Statistical Office.
-- 9 -
A. 2 COTTON
tHE
world MARKET SITUATION
World cotton production has increased at an annual rate of about 2. 5% since the mid-fifties, due to an increase in aver age yields per ha (2. 2-2. 3%) and a limited increase in cultivated area (0. 1-0. 2%). Over the same period, consumption rose
by 2. 3% annually, on average, with a consequent increase in stocks. Since 1965, partly following a temporary decrease in U.S. production, supply has tended to keep in step with demand.
The result of these trends on world cotton pxices has been a considerable decrease, in particular for medium and short fibres (represented by the American I”), whose average prices (spot prices, the average of quotations onlbU.S. markets) dropped from 33. 60 US $ per 100 lbs in 1962, to 23. 00 US S in 1967. with a minimum quotation in the 2nd quarter of the year cfUS$223O and with a tendency to rise in the first half of I 968 (around 25 USS).
Prices for Sudanese long fibre proved more resistant although they oscillated considerably ($ 42. 9 in I960. 35.6 in 1963, 
1^64 and 34. 2 in 1967, with a minimum quotation of
• ? in the 2nd quarter). In the first half of 1968 there was a s x 8 t improvement (to over 35 $).
lYiop65 Egyptian long and extra-long fibres (Liverpool) were
°f 1 
a  clearcut tendency to rise in the early months
and r ( kout 57 $), as against an average of $ 53.2 in 1967 
a
°' $41-Sir. 1962 and 1965(1960:5 49).
p
in w aStS f°  the period up to 1980 indicate a relative balance
r
Suppi ^  nand and supply of cotton as from 1972/1 973. 
er
policy  ?
9  OUld be more limited in the U.S. (continuation of the count reducing the cultivated area) and in other producing Placed168 9ncludin§ Egypt and Sudan), where priority will be c OUn °n Creasing food crops. Production in developing 
due t
should increase at a rate of 2. 8% a year (eSPe^< 4 Urt hcr improvements in yields), and at a rate o10
in developed countries. In this way the share of th countries in world cotton output should rise fro 4
— une aeveL
age of 1965/1967) to some 48% (1980). 
age of 1965/1967) to some 48% (1980).
A  _--------- --  rise from 43-44
3 ’44%(av^
The per-capita consumption of textile fibres of all sorts (it
being necessary to consider the effect of substitution between 
otton and artificial fibres) should rise at an annual rate of
C fc> t I % i e. slightly lower than in the past, due to the
a  n^isaged reduction in the per-capita income increase (from
to 2 5% according to the average of low and high asm-,, bv FAO). Moreover, due to the increased 
’ iOnS VlttvX. »< art.keial fibres (.specially don-clbh.. 
fibres), 
7 ‘ 6 tO 7’
the per-capita consumption of cotion should dreyf,„
i
In  developed countries, per-capna should rise from 1 1 1 to 12. 3 lbs. while that m
aZlXgcountries            should            remain            more            or            U.S            -h* around 4.4-4. 5 Ibs/annum.
On the preceding assumptions, it is estimated that the pr.ce d short or medium fibre cotton will decrease yet further (reach ing a level of about 21 cents/lb by 1975); that of long and extra long fibres will probably tend to decline, although more moderately (1).
A. 2. 2 THE SITUATION IN ETHIOPIA
years, i  the laaf  Ethiopia have increased rapidly in ?«:<»•*
n
0
an output of over 3V nn^
2. 000 tons of seed cotton (Table A-5)
(I967/* 1 * 968> reaching 60, 000 ha. 
according to n 11*
St ributlon o{
.            cotton growing last season, 
is set out in Table
made by the Awash Valley Author^
(1) Recent technological processes make it P° ^ctur* middlings to a greater extent even in the yarns (and fabrics) of higher quality, ^or
are normally required.
to
ior’8COTTON: AREA, PRODUCTION AND AVERAGE YIELDS, 1962/1963 TO 1967/1968
j Description
/ 1962/196 3
I 1963/1964
1 964/1 965
1965/1966
1966/1967
1967/1968
r~‘
Area
(thousand ha)
Production
(tr.ouSe-ind tons)
Yield
(ql • n.i
27
4. 6
1.7
30
5. 1
1. 7
34
6. 8
2. 0
40
50
60
14. 4
3. 6
27. 0
5. 4
32. 6
5. 4
Sonrc*»: Central Statistical Office
lable A-512 -
ESTIMATED PRODUCTION OF SEED COTTON IN l%7/l%8 ACCORDING TO AREAS AND PRODUCERS
Areas
Producers
Middle and Low Awash Valley
12, 770
Nura Era
Abadir
Awora Melkn
Kesscm Kebena
Amibara
Amba sh
Montanari
National Res. Dev.
I. 200
360
Montanari
H.    S.    I.    Foundati
on    S.    C.
300
240
900
800
200
560
15
U3
21.!
Awash         Valley 
Authority
Settl. Scheme
Arnbash      Priv. 
C.      Ltd.
80
45
l?0
80
Dubti
Dit Bahri
Barga
T. P. S. C.
T. P. S. C.
Joint Venture
Joint Venture
3. 500
1. 500
405
Logia
Dubti
40
Out-growers (AV A)
Small producers
100
15 1 IM
II
A ssayita-Ausa
5. 000
4. 310
2. 180
500
90
30
5. 000
w.i
Eritrea
Tesseney
Eritrea
Barattolo
Small producers
46.720
3. 000
B, 540
16, 710
3. 50Q
2, 530
11
Robii
Prisoners* 
Farm
Setit Humera
Small producers
180
35.000
160
10. 500
West and South
Arba Minch
Abe la
Gibe
735
Ministry 
of
Community
Development
Small producers
Small producers
Source:
Awash Valley Authority (Study of November, 1 968).- 13 -
Cotton-growing areas based on more advanced cr't irrigated areas are located in the Middle Awash V (National Resource Dev. S. C., Montanari. A V \ Foundation), in the Lower Awash Valley (t p c Tendaho) and in NW Eritrea (Barattolo, at Te„iS \ these concessions the highest average yields
It should be noted that two-thirds of the extensively is in the hands of small growers
*
In
i obtained.
A.,.Kt .Au.a): average yield. 
a
vary between
 < J
In 1967/1 968 there were 8 ginneries in Ababa. 3 in Asmara and 1 in Tendaho (th i» the growing area and belo„ging
 ,  J
•
4  “ Addis
o
->tu«e
d
Their capacity varies between 1 20 t/24 h (T. P. S. C.) and 
20 t/24 h. Near-maximum capacity is attained only from
November to March inclusively. The overall capacity is far
higher than the present work load, which is about 25, 000 t
of seed cotton (1967/1968). The difference between the
volume harvested (32, 000 t) and this work load may largely 
be attributed to the cotton for the cottage industry.
The average yield  of Lint is about 36% (between  32  and  39%). according  to  the concession.  This high  yield  is the result of hand picking.
•/    bv    thf    /    about      9»    000    t    of    lint    were    produced,    used    entirely V  local textile industry.
J between                 purcbased by the ginneries at a price varying
V    aU    fibre    1    tn<*    ^5    Eth.$/t,    according    to    quality    and    above
«
Weighted 
F°r the purposes of this study, an average
present Price 600Eth.$ maybetaten as representing the
in mind th^6' Corre3P°nding, by and large, to type I”. Bearing are as to th* Costs of packing and transport from the grouping av «r age * ginneries are about 10 Eth. $/t, the corresponding 
ex *farm price for cotton is 590 Eth. $/t.
The sale
-&80 t  . (Tc *
0                 Ce °* tbe fibre to the textile industry varies from
0Eth.$/t, oscillating round the price of imported14
cotton, but is about 20% higher than that • 
fibres(l). 
Cotton seeds (62Qkg on average per ton oLcottqn proc almost all exported, mainly to□V.e^t-Europ^dn^^filr^Sea*w* * 
XmpOrted
r
the closure of the Suez Canal, they have been sold m l Asiatic countries (Japan, China, Lebanon), Since price more unstable and less remunerative, the ginnerie  tend 
B
sell the seeds to domestic oil production plants or to set i
their own plants.
Over 90% of the lint obtained is in the middling staple category, and 10% in the long-staple category. Distribution may be-.n- dicated approximately as 35% of 15/l6 , 30% of 31/32'', 20%
u
of I”. 5%l.l/l6“ and 10% of greater length, up to I.V4”.
In 1967/1 968, the overall demand for cotton fibres and artificial fibres (rayon) by the Ethiopian cotton industry exceeded 24.030t as follows:
Local production
Cotton imports
Variations in stocks and other sources
Total supply of cotton
Cotton exports
Domestic demand for cotton Imports of artificial fibres
Domestic demand for fibres
tens
9, 0C0
5.5C0
. 930
15.430
430
15.000 9,540
24. MO.
(1)
textile i j en gth cotton 
Wasl3? '
"—
ra y°n is compared withaverage- 5 /16 and 3V32..), In 1 965/1966 its FOF
f“bres    im
poi t( d
. , /’■ 8a.nst
a
prices    of    I    58    and    l68EikS4>r‘
1  967/1 
j h  Produced at home (16-23". high") ,r
! h'     PHce(l72E'n^POr!     duti«     increased     from     10     to     45     h’’
65 -J 75 Eth $/ )
t
’ Hlrnost the same as that of cotton- 15 -
There are 7 cotton factories operating in the countrv v o(  these have an annual working capacity of over ? °Ur of fibre (cotton and rayon). In all, they po89p, ' °° tonB
150, 000 spindles (I). In 1966/1967 some of
60-70% artificial fibres, both in the form of
for  the manufacture of mixed cloth or just rayon ’
crease in import duties from 10 to 45 Eth «// • "lln the m- of artificial fibres in total consumption o/the’textHe^?^ ' 
UP t0
8
dropped from 50 to 40% (I 967/1 968)
In  all.  in  1  967/l 968  some 60% of all fibrp  «• 
XUle lndd8try
plus rayon) was imported)
onsumption (cotton
Concerning the distribution in consumption of cotton lint ac cording to category of length, another imbalance is noted between the supply structure and industrial demand. Without going into further details, it has been noted that medium-length fibres (between 15/16" and 1”) account for the great majority (70%) of fibres taken by industry, that 20% approximately are medium-long fibres (between 1” andlj/l6”) and only 10% long fibres (over 1.1/16”), whereas local producers offer 45, 40 and 
15 i respectively. Balance is only partly restored by imports, w ith an overall supply of 50-55, 30-35 and 10- 15% per type of fibre respectively. The producers of long fibres normally 
have to sell their produce at prices lower than international Quotations (see further forward), since in Ethiopia the demand s °  higher-quality cloth(generally made from long fibres) is
r
to ^^est. Hence the necessity, suggested some time ago, 
reate an agency to arrange coordination between producers, ln neries and the textile industry.
The ex-fa
the last t C ° y P ^
rr
cea  of domestically produced cotton, in 
most wid i° Season8» and on the whole the prices of the fibres
Prices
o f Q3ec^» have been more or less equivalent to the Sported cotton. In particular for fibres of up to
U) Average output per .pi»dl«=
a theoretical capacity of 180 8 • shift or 600 gr/d x 300 d).
(200  r/.pi» "
8
J16 -
1.1/16" (middling), domestic prices were 2-8% hi
for fibres of greater length domestic prices were *hiie
lower than those of the corresponding fibres ef^ ° °nBidera'»ly (13% lower forl.l/8") or importable (14-20% loll ^Cly
and 1.1/4") (Table A-7). 
From these summary indications it may be noted
That the Ethiopian market is not yet sufficiently se e
and reacts but little to the different types of fibres fV *
That under present conditions the possibility of exporting middling is conditioned by a decrease in sale prices mort or  less equal to the difference between export prices (or prices FOB American ports) and prices ex-Ethiopian factory.
On the other hand, that the possibility exists of exporting long fibres.
Cotton imports take place both freely and under the PL 480 Agreement (2), with payment CIF Djibouti. On the CIF price, which includes 1% bank dues, some 1 0-20 Eth, $ per ql. are payable for sale costs and municipal dues, 10 Eth.S/ql in excise. 8-10 Eth.$/ql for transport from Djibouti to Addis Ababa, transit dues and various expenses. The FOF price therefore undergoes an increment of over 25% on the CIF price.
The sole exports were made by T. P. S. C. , which - after fo- warding samples of fibre 1.3/16” to London - placed 430tons of this fibre on that market. With the gradual settling 
r £or 13/ifc..
world market (unloading of stocks, further reduction _^
. r>
100 a
in the USA), it is considered that the export flo* °f
ur
: en*etts
long-fibre cotton • that in excess of specific loca
could develop favourably.
'
(I) On the world market there is a 20-25% ^iVediiferenC< * 31/32" and 1.1/16"; on ,the Ethiopian market t e only half.
(2) On the basis of this Agreement, the loans over 20 years, at 3. 5% interest.
. 
ce  bet*^en
U Government rep^'Table A-7
CAN OF PRICES OF ETHIOPIAN COTTON EX-TEXTILE 
t -oM
pARlSU
FACTORY and PRICES OF IMPORTED COTTON (in Eth. $ per kg)
Staple Length
Domestic
Prices
Paid (I)
Price of
Imported
Cotton
%
Difference
1” and lesB
1.1/32"
1.1/16"
1.1/8"
.3/16"
1.1 '4"
1.68-1.75
1. 75-1.80
1. 80-1.85
1.87
1.90
1.90 (a)
1.62
1.69
1. 75
2. 15
(2. 20)
(2.40)
3-8
3-6
2-5
-13
(-14)
(-20)
general the higher price was paid to T. P. S. C.
Fot
 , raouM, a
h Galley Authority, up dated.18 -
A. 2. 3                 PROJECTION OF COTTON DEMAND
As a first approximation, the total corm,™ . 
artificial fibres are considered. In the i9^/“.M
lowing  the raising  of the import tax  on  artifieisw /'*“»■ <«• to  45  Eth4> per ton,  out of a total amount of 31  A,  fr°*  U
fibre, 60% was represented by cotton. 
For 1972-1973 it is estimated that the domestic
fibre (cotton plus artificial fibres) will be abosi
equal to more than 1. 5 kg per capita (1967-1968- ! 3 1 )
Considering the rapid development of cotton growing in EtL-
- according to the target figures of the 3rd Plan of Develop and the capacity of the national textile industry, domestic oti,/ should be able to satisfy almost the whole of the demand for cotton. Imports should be limited to modest amounts of cotta (medium-length fibre), to quality supplements and to yarns and fabrics of "fine" quality. Imports of artificial fibres will represent only 1/4 of total consumption.
The probable surplus of long fibres could be exported, since their price is already competitive with world market prices
Export prices (CIF) in the foreseeable future have already indicated. The ex-farm price for export sales is shoW1'^ Table A-l . The ex-farm prices for domestic sales
shown in Table-A-1; they are based on an import-pan tion, and disregard the protection at present
cotton.
Z ’ 000 ton» <rf
For the coming years the per-capita consu _
i ity°f
elaSl C
motion of cott011
rayon has been forecast according to an 1 
1. 1, with logarithmic function. This -nvolve 3 total
in 1995. This consumption figure wOU
of over 100, 000 tons of fibre. Assurm g 
of artificial fibres, for technologic^
not fall below 25% of the total for
an    input    of    over    75,    000    tons    of    lint,    eq of seed cotton (Table A-8).
s r each^^’
th e perce^.j rea son*
this
ver 200.
o’       *• 
6"’'fcieia «/•rriaHl
(NU1 nwi hmiMi, a ri*«4
iJ aUurt It* M» M.. • ••^-•4
A»tlH*Ul Hk|« l‘N »•••• i w.a,- 20 -
It seems un 
uk eLv despite the planned potential increase in
’
domestic production alone will be able
cotton  cultiva ^vel it is therefore considered  that,  as
to  reach  sue a *  eriod of relative self-sufficiency  as a
from 1975, at consequence o a Setit llumera, 
bedom neecsteiscs pr ary t oduc o  tion.
on the foreign mar Ufibr ndeesr in the toia
ge  expansion in cotton growing (Awash,
. Arba Minch, etc.) it will once again recourse to imports in order to augment
percentage of long fibres to be place! can he maintained over the forecast pent/, 
fresh rise in the incidence of artificial “onsnmed cannot be excluded,
In conclusion, it is considered that the determination of the
surface area for cotton in the Project Area will not be limited by the size of the market, and furthermore that ex-farm prices should 
be set at a level where cotton is produced for the domestic market. As time goes on, an increase in the quality of cotton produced can be reflected in a small price rise, which is Ukeiy to happen as a result of a (moderate) rise in domestic demarx of long stable fibres.- 21
A.3 TOBACCO
A J-1
theworld market situation
Between 1953/1955 and 1965/1966, world tobacco production in creased at an average annual rate of 2.5% (reaching about 3.8 mil lion tons in the latter year). The share of developing countries
in the volume of production and trade is at present over 40% and has been increasing.
The prospects of world consumption in the medium term appear favourable: an increase of about 2.8% has been estimated to 1975-1980. The main factors in this increase (in addition to the increase in population) are as follows: rates of urbanization and industrialization, the increase in per-capita incomes, and the spread of the smoking habit, especially among women. It is esti mated that consumption will increase more rapidly in developing countries.
P^oductic^      eSeS         ^aVe         keen      put      forward      regarding      the      increase      in 
than that^f
rate              l°V consurnption, while the other one involves a higher tion would e forrner case, the larger share of the increased produc- c °untries °ccur developing countries, while European industrial Probably retT*^ cont*nue to be the chief importers, and would 
^ rSt One ^nv°lves a slightly lower rate of increase
better -qUap UCC l^ ^
e
r own output. In the latter case a demand for
which ma tobacco would be created in developing countries, y tend to step up their cultivated areas accordingly.
The US ar
^ ®t
a
few      year^'^      major      producers      and      exporters,      but      over      the
e
from 4o% S hotter cond° tenues to P
ftne1’
The rria" ^hode j
tucidence on the world market has declined The cause8 for this are: increasing supply on
in developing countries (American tobacco con- 8u Pported prices^and the decreased demand for
08  by manufacturers, following the use of filters. 
8 a         ,      Porters      among      developing      countries      at      present      are ndla* Brazil, the Philippines and Indonesia. In almostleaf. K is estimat all the countri
♦ Ties there has been an improvement in the quality M
* heir
t          cxporls wiU
 continue to incTeai.
It can be conclu e the increase in increase and an 1 P otherwise, equili
d that should future supply fall below demand, iceB would constitute an incentive to ar.
vernent in production. Should the case be may well be achieved by marginally
t altering the prices of leaf at origin. It
ducing        taXaU°g’gurned        that        prices       will        not       change       substantially        « the long run.
A. 3.2 THE SITUATION IN ETHIOPIA
The climatic and ecological conditions in certain regions of Ethio-
' 5pia - including the Awash Valley - appear favour able to the deve’.w
J ment of tobacco cultivation. At present, the cultivated areas are
•v/ mainly in the Robi area (Eritrea) and in the Middle Awash Valiev 
•V     (Nura Era, Awora Melka), although they are still of an experi-
mental nature.
In  Ethiopia,  tobacco  comes under a State monopoly,  bo that culti vation  is controlled  and  production  is purchased  by  the Moncpolv at fixed prices, depending on quality and grade.
According to data provided by the Monopoly, in the 1967/1988 season about 200 tons of ” Virginia” tobacco were produced a dried leaves (first drying), at the following prices
kg): 1st quality, 2.20; 2nd quality, 1.90; 3rd quality, quality, 1.00; 5th quality, 0. 50; and 6th quality, 0.3 •
Taking account of the quantitative distribution 50% of all production is of the first three grades)» 
.         f         grades .p* ‘ t  haS be*n
l0
calculated        that        the        average        weighted        price        of        tobac^        g^.S/M growers in the Awash Valley by the Monopoly w
in 1967/1968.
h          n  POly lnter
pr od^. °
Production: distribution o  selected seeds to grower. ir« «"
'- e"e» I" various ways to support
freduced prices, particularly to small grower <
to deliver green leaf instead of dried leav I
In Ethiopia, the level of domestic tobacco consumption is still
low Potential demand, on the other hand, should be con sidered much higher (l). In 1967/1968, the total domestic con
sumption of tobacco (dry leaves equivalent) is reported as about
J' SAoO tons. Imports to supplement production (of dry leaves and 
V processed products, such as cigarettes, cigars, etc.) come from
the US (the highest qualities), Canada, Malawi, Korea and a few other countries.
Tobacco Monopoly purchase prices would appear competitive on the world market. For purposes of comparison, export prices of Indian Virginia (FOB, flue cured) are expected to reach a Low leveld UScents48per lb in 1969; this corresponds to Eth.$ 265 per ql, 
for a quality which is somewhere between the second and third grades of the Tobacco Monopoly (at prices of Eth.S 190 and Eth. $ 160 per ql ex-farm); although the Latter needs re-drying and re grading, the costs of these operations are considerably lower than
tobacco was recently put to the test, when Japanese u yers contacted the EthioDi an authorities about lone-term con-
are  ° Uged
techn^al assistance
b
situation, which should facilitate the entry of Ethiopian baCC0 world markets.
r .vuuLtQ and with the extending oi the area tob acco, it will be possible to meet the probable norma‘
QU r
j e-
rne nts or domestic consumption within a short time,orts of dry leaf (Virginia) and a considerable practically all irnprtg q{ prOcessed products (part of these win 
proportion of ^rnp°the dornestic market because of obvious criteria
continue reaching of.ionl while exporting dried leaf to the world
« competitive price,.
d supply and an estimated more widespread I Due to the incJea** cO manufactured within the country, it has
distribution of tobac
q cOngump
tion could increase over
been calculated that the next few years at a in 1971/1972.
q{ y5
_  %. exceeding 500 ton,
20• 25 -
A. 4 OIL SEEDS
THE WORLD MARKET SITUATION FOR FATS AND OILS
World output of fats and oils probably reached 37 million tons
1967 In the last 10-15 years the rate of increase has been 
higher than the rate of population growth: therefore per-capita consumption - at present between 10 and 11 kg/year - has
increased.
Output rose more markedly in advancedcajntries(p articular hy the US, the sole exporter) and centrally-planned countries. Developing countries are still net exporters, but the volume of their exports appears to be more or less stationary (!)•
Vegetable oils represent 85-90% of total world consumption. Pride of place is held by soya oils, world trade in which appears to be expanding considerably. Trade in and consump tion of groundnut and coconut oils are also increasing, tut at
a slower rate, while sesame, cottonseed and olive oils are more or less stationary. Sunflowerseed oils have of recent years grown more important on the world market, thanks to the cultivation advances in centrally-planned countries, parti cularly the USSR.
-^n analysis of the prices and stocks of fats and oils over the past 10 years brings out oscillations of some note in the short-
erm period. Over the medium and long term it may, however, e  stated that the direction of prices for the individual products
n °t v*tried from that represented by the general price
(1)
Those of Nigeria, Senegal, the P^ ^coantries are
il
• nes, Sudan,
Malaysia and certain South America increasing.- 26 -
Medium and long-
oils, according to 
term     prospects     for     the     market     in     fata     ar4
averag
e assumption (1), would lead ,>
compared with the past:
t
A     rate     of     increase     in     world     production     higher     than     the     rate of       population       growth       (further       rise       in       per-capita       coniuntp. 
tion);
An  increase in  developing  countrie in  the sector of vegetable oils and groundnut and sunflower oils;
s           share,especially particularly soya,
World              prices on the whole
(of    oilseeds    and    of    fats    and    oils)    tending to fall until 1972/73 (2).
A. 4. 2                  THE SITUATION                 IN ETHIOPIA
°uVeri
shook! be added 60, 000 ha of cotton, with a total output of son-.e 410, 000 tons of seeds (TableA-9). Over half is constituted by niger seeds (neug). Following in order of volume produced are: linseed, sesame, sunflowerseeds, groundnuts, cotton 
seeds, castorbeans, rapeseeds and a few others of minor im portance. In the past ten years, production has risen at an ave rage annual rate of about 3%. The greater part of the seeds (practically all the neug) grows in non-irrigated areas or areas partially watered by different systems.
As an effect of the progressive increase in domestic demand especially of industrial oil plants, the surpluses earmark-^ for export have declined constantly over the past foa* yt and development of oilseed crops is one of the aims
°°° arC at present under oil seeds, to which
(1)
(2)
and Sta
S  Ce or e
 alstio Fsti AO
^moditi
cs  •• y°,nthly 3ulletin of Agricultural Ecor.^'
F Or o
es  p Unie l7> -March 1968, and ”Agnculw:J
Ejections for 1975 and 1985", Volusi^-
nut  °il. cgrocoundnut        onut ’oisl v"?64' aCaba’ coP  > palm oil, g^''
ra
Ioa, .
. llnseed oil, an annual drop of 3/*
and  '973 has been estimated.SOWN AREA, PRODUCTION AND AVERAGE YIELDS OF OIL SEEDS. 1962/63 - 1966/67of the Government's agricultural policy (1).
Last season, 01 tnc -x •  < thp 410. 000 t. ons of oilseeds produced, 
000 tons were used as reproducing seed, as direct feed ft ; f v other similar uses; 57,000 tons were exported and 
remaining 332. 000 tons processed into oils (see Table A u,
.
, 
than 20*7. of the oils are produced by a dozer.
Oil
A 1       PLeSeu^’ng       processes       which       are       not       wholly       rational.       The
plants, usi BP remaminB
on the farms
mqclve
obtained using family or cottage systems, s and in smaller centres. It is to be
of
gtiU preferred by con-
XmtTd-^oth toXir better taste and to the lower price.
Cakes arc practically all exported. Holland continues to be the chief purchasing country (about 22,000 of the 32,000 tons in 1967), followed by Germany and other West European .coun tries. Quotations for the cakes remained remunerative, espe cially due to the high residual oil content,and the small traces of chemical substances (3).
In Ethiopia the per-capita consumption of edible vegetable oils has increased significantly over the last few years. In 
1967 this was estimated as being 4. 3 kg/year, against 3 5 kg in about 1 960.
(1)
(2)
(3)
In 1963, exports touched their highest level, with 
85, 000 tons. In 1964, 76, 000 tons were exported, in • 67,000 tons, in 1966,54,000 tons and 1967. 58,000 tons. The value of oilseed exports dropped during the same period, from 1 3 to 8% of total exports.
About 4, 000 tons of sesame and 3, 000 tons o- groan This because the most widely used process of
tion is simple crushing, withouth solvents. For
reasa*
.
foreign         buyers,         before         distributing         the         ca         *         solvent5- feed, recover a considerable part of the oils»» a. IW»<J
/                    Oil -Sccdft
/ Output
I (Xvrr.igc
1 I 962/661
/ Output
1 1967/6H
Estimate
1 Waste,
i Scedv  a-nc
i        Food
Exported
Seed n
I Proccnuedl
Secda                  |
Exlrac lkoti \
Rate                   1
OH              \
Produced^
U)
n
/ Ne ug
! Lin
Castor
Groundnuts
Sesame
Cotton
Rape
Sunflower
1 220. 0
1       55. 0
10.6
17. 5
32. 0
9.0
5. 3
27.4
/ 230
60
20
36
16
6
30
1 9. 2
2. 1
0.3
3. 0
5. 0
0. 3
0. 2
0. 9
8. 8
9. 7
1. 9
1.6
19. 8
11.2
4. 2
0.2
212. 0
48.2
9.8
15. 4
11. 2
4. 5
1.6
28. 9
35
27
40
27
42
15
32
27.
74. 2
13. 0
3. 8
4. 2
4. 7
0. 7
0. 5
7. 8
I xO
I
Total
376. 8
410
21. 0
57. 4
331.6
X
108. 9 (a) 1
(l) Mainly crude oil (not refined)^
(a) Of which about 4. 9 for non food uses (castor oil and a few linseed oil).
Source: Minintrieu of Agriculture, Planning and Development - Awash Valley Authority special30 -
A. 4. 3
PROJECTIONS OF DOMESTIC OILS
demand for VECETflBLi.
Projections have been based on an increase in 
sumption according to an income elasticity of
logarithmic function. It has not been thought net
any price-elasticity into consideration, even k V to foregoing - world prices of fats and oils are t J’ n°ted in
In fact, it is probable that domestic prices
wiil not undergo any substantial variations comp^ed^ genera! direction of prices (l). It alao b„„ a„u
Will be a certain increase in the demand for „on-ediM  .fl, 
“g
e
factories, etc. ) (2). 
(castor oil, linseed for industrial uses, waste oils for soan
p
The increase in per-capita consumption of vegetable oil3 for
edible uses has therefore been estimated, from the presen:
(1967) figure 4. 3 kg to 5. 0 kg in 1 97 5, to over 6. 0 kg ir. 1985 and to 7. 3 in 1995. Considering also the demand for oils for
non-food uses, a total domestic demand for vegetable oils of
over 147, 000 tops would be obtained in 1975. and of over
330, 000 tons in 1995, Moreover, taking account of the direct
consumption of seeds for food uses, of the re-using of seec?
for reproduction and of wastes, the corresponding demand for oil seeds would be 443, 000 tons in 1975 and 970»000 tons in 1995 (TableA-ll).
No firm projection concerning supply can 
ior e
x
stage,      for'the      medium      and      long      run.      Howe      .      at          least      pr*^* 
si on seems very large and it can narly, that cropping patterns in the J
dedAJ,,
(1)
(2)
____________ ________ ______ ___  , This assumption de rive,s fro.m the plants will tend to limit the
the radius of marketing in competit produced on a cottage-industry One laundry soap plant is‘ capacity of 7000 t/year
Over 1000 t of vegetable o animal tallow-
, industry oilt
u  order £ with l»*er
nstructi»»' “£1 be  used, ■» ’r
- 31
a
0EMAKD of OU. SEEDS AND SEED OILS. M67 AND PROJECTS FOR
„„
£-pplJ 
196?
(adjust.)
1075
(thousand of mrtric font)
1 Rates of
Growth
1967-75
r
Rate» of
Growth
1975.85
1595 I
Petra al i
Growth |
1935-95 |
R<u« of
Growth
1967*95
£2*33 |M'1
rut, nd eeedi
. 3f
. inert* |mH<)
□SU*
. x. i*rli H'
. npaM* HMe
--an*dible oU«
until he food ua*4M
*»||UY,» edible oila ,,5 )
■ 'uta ,., ?.® edible oil*
«KHU9^t£L mV domes-
X—1.61
™ <»Fft -.nt jmpv.on ol
329.0
105.0
(100. 0)
(5.0)
0.3
0.5
0. 1
6. o
100. 6
5. 1
I
a. 9
5.
HO. o        4.
7.5
Hhj)
5.
II
0
2
o
14.2
210. 0
11.6
eaLj)
I
1
•n
k-
<>
<>28a
5Qo
2. 0
2.2
0.050
34,770
4. A
4. 1
4.5
la
I. 9
2.2
21.4
U5.0
18. 0
a^a
7.250
43.220
4.2
4. 1
4.5
1x1
1.9
2.2
4. 7
4. 1
4.6
ia
1.9
2.2
,u4 ’ .11.,
r °’U ^awtTU
B  r’ Producti<m
’** 
for soap),
1 FM» of •
I **'*
3hod
ir»
Ifi?*** 
q Djj
lu, hng
Ma<
of
i ^ ^* 
lo v   n
Projection
period
from
32     to     355     on     account     of
*° 1
9^5  *t«i
r
Of
'•
nCorr
>e
H 2 5 from 1
967 to 1975
. 2.6 from
1975 to I98
5;and
o. a n
d
u
Mlbu vw«*^b?Xlhd?ic <unctionb
°      ^reign t
hand
<htl •Uboj.ju
rr Mnd hav« been estimated taking account oi development of soap <Cle have not been estimated in this preliminary research.
lnn °n tho baais of official data.- 32
doubt include those oil seeds which, within 
limits, are able to reinforce supply. 
Among different oil seeds, groundnuts appear , u
keeping with present and future prospects of ??e
foreign market. 
THE GROUNDNUT MARKET
The major exporting countries arc all African: Nieeria o. gal, Niger and Sudan (over 40% entering world trade) T major importers are at present EEC countries and the UK.
eir  Pro^Ubiljty
H                      1 the dorneatic
CIF prices, European port, of shelled groundnuts from Nigena after hitting a peak in 1965 (about 210 US $/lon  ton) droppedtc
g
1 82 US$inl 967. The trend is to decrease even more, and it has been assumed that prices should reach 172 U S $ within 5 years (1973). Concerning customs tariffs, it should be noted that, with the adoption of the common EEC external tariff, certain preferential agreements with associate African countries (Seceit Niger) have been abolished. Nigeria nevertheless continues to benefit from special treatment under the Commonwealth pre ference. The competitive position of African exporting country not enjoying any particular facilities - including Ethiopia a.2 Sudan - now appears to be improved (l).
On the basis of the world prices quoted above and of th< vant cost elements (transport, etc.) , it would be
to produce groundnuts at present at an average e about 240 Eth. $/ton (unshelled), corresponding to^ European portsof 180 US $/metric ton (shelled). 
mind the trend to a further decrease in this. 
1972/73 the ex-farm price could be 315-
Eth. $/ton, unshelled).
--------- -—--------------  . 
(1) Groundnut seeds whatever their orig * 
in EEC countries; they are subjec
(exemption for Commonwealth ^°U . ry purposeS’ 2 0% duty only on seeds for confectione .
ice Qj
jr
q  $/wa (220’’2'
- d-*1
in are exempt
duty m • j. japan apP- 33 -
Concerning domestic market possibilities t • 
the great majority of present oil-producin'_ ‘ *8 to bc noted that cottonseed, both because of their low price
mers- tastes are not yet accustomed to bett andbccau8e consu ls foreseen that there will be a relatively r
demand for vegetable ghee; in this case L , lncrca8e »» the
U8e neug and
Howevcr it
constitute one of the most convenient in ut°
D
Un /nUt8 W°uld
can be guaranteed. For the present report \
for exports has been taken 
A 4-5      COTTONSEEDS (I)
At present, cotton seeds, the production of which is increasing rapidly in relation to the development of cotton cultivation (in 1967/68 approx. 16. 000 tons), are mainly exported (Japan. Lebanon. United Kingdom, etc. ) and the remainder sent to the oil plants. With the envisaged increase in supplies, both uses could be developed (2).
The import price of cotton seeds CIF European port is 88 US$/ long ton, corresponding to 175-180 Eth. $/ metric ton F Djibouti or As sab. The price ex-Ethiopian ginnery should between 135 and 140 Eth. $/ton. to be competitive.
At present, the ginners obtain prices below this level (125 13 Eth^ton), o there is already a margin to meet the likely re
su PPty e ex_farm price
s
tions in the world price, over the medium term (for 1 
*3 US $ per long ton CIF. equal to 122-126 Eth. $/ton ex-ginj. In the chief importing countries, including Japan, cottonse are exempt from duty. To Japan, freight undergoes a ™
^ease(Eth.$ 49 instead of 32 per ton), while the CIF Pnc* different from that ruling in European ports. This circu ln dicatcs that, with the reopening of the Suez Canal, the Part of Ethiopian cottonseeds will be able to be p ace Profitably in Europe. as occurred prior to the closure of the
. .
(I)
U)
rd in the event c£ a crushing plant being set up in the
^ rne the first Italconsult mission a new oil p
n . groundnuts, etc. - was underway. Halt
capacity ot s°™iz-000 ,/yr oi 2* 
a
* ■”■»;«« for another oil plant which would b« ba.cd 
n  r< tO Proce9sed into vegetable ghees. ^re wholly 
°  ««on.e
n
cd .5 CEREALS
G ENERAb
In 1966/67, according to the latest estimates, Ethiopia produced over 5. 4 million tons of cereals. The most common is teff fol lowed by barley, maize, wheat and other coarse grains such as
millet, sorghum
A considerable par
, durrah, etc. (Table A-12).
t of the crops is grown on the high plateaus
under rainfed conditions. Latterly, crops have been planted on 
irrigated lands (maize, wheat, barley).
Between  1952/56  (average) and  1967,  domestic production  devel oped  at a rate of between  2.  2  and  2.  5%,  or more than  the rate of population growth.
This practically satisfies domestic demand. Cereal-based im ports (flour, food pastes, biscuits, etc. ) at present account for
1-2% of this demand.
wasiCaP*ta COnsuniPt^on ” expressed in terms of flour, net of
* seeds and the very modest proportions of cereals for
157 k f1/503 barley f°  l
r
Jecr» distilling, animal feed - exceeds
m  j. ^ear and its income elasticity appears low. Over the
ti On based 
there will probably be a situation close to satura- the expected expansion of consumption of foods
etc.      )      t°n         ?roteins         and      fats      (meat,      milk,      eggs,      vegetable-oils, e  detriment of foods based on carbohydrates.
As al
e5
P cially ist .  at
eready 
 . •   ln
 th6 intr°ductory notes, cereal consumption, 
^^keting at 6 rQra^ areas, occurs largely on the farms. Some
e
Cs P cialiy  j
S
more controlled prices, occurs in the urban centres
and lhe setnnCC establishment of the Grains Corporation 
n R tip Of various silos
WKile
^ Cre h i8
as  SbU the most comm°n cereal, over recent years
n a  relatively quicker increase in the consumptionPRODUCTION OF CEREALS, 1948-1952 (AVERAGE), 1952-1956 (AVERAGE) AND 1962-1967 (thousand of metric tons)
Crops
1948-52 (average
1952-56 (average)
1962
Wheat
Barley
Maize
Toff and other
coarse grains (l)
\      Total
179
623
160
184
626
345
260
760
682
I, 714
2, 676
I, 873
3, 028
2,905
4, 607 1 <■
,959
3, 047
4, 834
3, 032
3, 097
4, 856          4, 990
3, 150 5, 090
G)
Millet, uorghum, durrah, etc.
Sour c iv. V. A. O. ; Ministries of Agriculture, P La. nixing and Development. Most of theuc data were
X
recently modified, It* 1967 tixe wheat output w.ih reported to bu 7-10, OOU t and the? total out put of cnraaTii •» . 420. OOO ♦
1
iqej.- 37 -
r
roiections of domestic cereal demand on the whole, an F°  elasticity of 0. 4 has been assumed with per-capita con-
income-
d  ng towa
-        rd saturation and, over the longer term,. 
»“ 'P
n
e  ase
U ° n      (type of function selected, log-log inverse). On the
t0 CC of these assumptions, the annual per-capita consumption baS  ld°rise to just over 164 kg in terms of flour in 1975, and to 
70 k i*1 1985> reac^' R saturation in the subsequent period. Ln 
n
1995 a per-capita consumption of 168. 5 kg has been assumed (Table A-13).
To meet these consumption levels, domestic production of cere als should rise from the present 5. 4 million tons to 6.8 million tons in 1975 (annual rate of increase 2.8 %), to 8.7 million tons in 1985 (2. 6%), and to 10. 7 in 1995 (2.1 %).
A. 5.2 THE MAIZE MARKET
•
r
s       a]TnaiZe       P °duced     in     Ethiopia,     in     areas     generally     not     irrigated, 
the co 
consurne^ in the areas of production, partly because
The ex transport forms a considerable part of the final price. tX ’ arm price has oscillated between 100 and 120 Eth.S/ton.
typ®    as    therna^°na^    market,    taking    the    yellow    American    No.    3 
In 1^67 the ^aS^S>
rose until 1966 and thereafter fell,
and it i
s   average price was about 64 US $/long ton CIF London, 
Projected t°
come stabV1 matUd tHe PHCC WiU g° °n falIing 4111111 I969, t0 bC‘
ixed at a level of about 58 US $ per long ton.
P °ssibl  irn
P fesente       n
o  porLat'°n of this type of maize into Ethiopia would at
*00 EthA / Ur a price, delivered to Addis Ababa, of about
l    n> CorresPon^>ng to an ex-farm price of 165Eth. S/ton. 
^^aoged(E l972^73’ this latter price would stay more or less
$ 1 67) because of compensating cost elements (l). In Eth;
5*. 5 kg/* .           ^963/65, the per-capita consumption of maize v.as ln 1967 il was 52. 8 kg/year. According to an in-
tcity of 0. 4 and an inverse log function, this consump ' 1) C1F Dj •   "
b
'
] 8? /.       60 US $/ton, instead of 64.5; Addis Ababa
tan8Port f?Stead °f20°)’ less 20 EtK$(instcad of 35) for
)rn
to Addis Ababa.38 -
SUPPLY AND DEMAND OF CEREALS. 1967 AND PROJECTIONS For
I
(thousand of metric tons)
Description
1967
adjusted)
1975
Rates "p” of Growth
1967-75
1985             |
Rates
°f Growth
1975-85
199S          ,
■t, 1915.^5
Raw output
Production in flour
equivalent (l)
Imports (flour *
cqui valent)
Exports (do. )
Domestic consumption
(do. )
Per caput food con
sumption (do. )
(kg/year)
Correspondent demand
of cereals
Population (thousands)
5.400
3. 670
33
3
3,700
1
4, 600
2. 75                      5.915
2. 55
7.260
1.1
157. 4
5.450
23.500
164. 4
6. 760
27.970
0. 55 170. 1
2. 75 8,700
2. 2
34.77 0
0. 35
2.55
2. 2
| 168.5
10,700
43.220
2.1
2.2
(l)                      Net of waste seeds and non food consumption. Notes:               “ AsGumed per caput GDP rates of growth:
5 from 1967 to 1975; 2 6 from .975 to 
f‘-
-    Assumed income-elasticity: 0.4 (log-log inverse function, addition*, p-irar.rzr for a sumption: 171. 6 in 1988)
-    Projection of production and foreign trade have not been estimated in this prelirr.
Source: Italconsult estimates and elaborations.- 39 -
bon shouLQ
about 34 kg in 1972; without recourse to foreign * i T* 1 S V* ' u
s ponding domestic production should increase al
trade, the c°rrCS {alling from 2. 9 to 2.6%, going from the present
rates of in^® J
a
Q0 lonS to about 1,630, 000 tons in 1995 (Table A-14)
afll ount of 7        •SUPPLY AND DEMAND OF MAIZE, 1967 AND PROJECTIONS FOR 1975, 1985 AND 1995 (thousand of metric tons)
Description
1967 adjusted^
1975
Rates of
Growth
1967-75
1985
Rates of
Growth
1975-85
1995
Rates ol    ' Rates of Growth          Growth 1985-95         1967-95
Production
Imports
Exports
Domestic demand
tin terms of grains)
Per-caput con sump- don (l)(kg/year) Population (thousands)
770
• •
• •
770
968
2. 9
0. 7
2. 2
1,265
36.4
34,770
2. 7
32. 8
23,500
34. 6
27,970
0. 5
2. 2 1
1,630
37. 7
43, 220
l_Z___________
2. 6                  2.7
0. 35 '             0. 5 2                            2. 2
2.  /
(j)                  For the purpose o£ the present preliminary research the consumption - in terms of grain and not
of flour - is assumed to be only for food uses.
“Motes:
- Assumed per c aput GDP rales of growth: 2. 5 from 1967 lo 1975; 2. 6 from 1975 to 1985 
^ind
Z.l From I9& » to 1995.
r
income «•!«* all<• k Uy: O. L (Imix lo|i*inver««i f»»nrti»»n).
m
•-------«.
i... .... .i.n.vn <•»« i i tu.i rnrl in f li 4 «• r» r r» I • mi »»«* *• V rrBfari h.- 41 -
A. 6 PU LSES
rain  e
s widespread throughout Ethiopia, especially on the high f d conditions. In 1967, output was estimated to be
Over t
h  last decade, output is reported to have
e
^'dmore or leSS Parallel with P°Pulation growth. The most common * ‘*’*   chickpeas (28% of the total), peas (19 %), horse
:
re
lentils (16%) and haricot beans (11%). The growing of horse jtjusindchickpeas has increased at a higher than average rate (TableA-15).
i,already noted for cereals, the majority of the pulses are consumed on lafirms. Barely 10% of the pulses are exported (60-70, 000 tons). 
Horse beans figure in first place, with almost 25, 000 tons in 1967, mainly wilir.ed to Arab countries and Japan. Next come haricot beans (18, 000 
:xil, sold especially in Europe (1 0, 000 tons to West Germany alone);
.rcli.s ,15,000 tons) exported also to Europe (especially the UK), Ceylon '..th? Middle East; and chickpeas (about 11, 000 tons), mainly for Ceylon.
■AUCTION OF PULSES, 1948-52 (AV.), 1952-56 (AV. ) AND 1962-67 (thousand of tons, dry weight)
Table A-IS
1952-56 
(average)
1963
1965
1966
Hl  lco
’   lbean8 Chickptas
Hors
1948-52 (average)
69
134
154
72
150
155
61
62
63
65
67
112
113
116
63
115
168
113
96
6
118
162
165
100
101
103
169
105
95
7
172
116
120
175
118
75
8
91
8
93
7
98
6
100
5
560
535
543 
-
555
561
575
585
Pulses excluded.
xs tries of Agriculture, Planning and Developmen e,42
The export of other types of pulses is negligible
World trade in these products increased at an annual rate
0   5'4* Ov«t the last ten years, with relatively stable prices. Demand / pulses is still high. It is estimated in this respect, that °f Ethi°P n 
u
and long term the supply of surpluses will no longer be abi ^ the mediurr adequate levels. 
In 1967 the per-capita consumption of pulses (1) fB estimated about 22 kg/year. According to a fairly low income elasticity (0 
e  *°
in conformity with the FAO studies) and a s mi-loga i
e
r thni c
i
this level should rise to just over 23 kg in 1975 and to 26 kg in responding to a total domestic demand of 650, 000 and 1 130 nnn. ' respectively (Table A-16). 
'         ’ nS
A       domestic       output       aiming       at       satisfying       this       consumption       over       this       period and      at      the      same      time      ensuring      a      certain      level      of      exports,      should      expand at a decreasing annual rate from 2. 8-2. 9 to 2. 6%.
The present export flow is based on the folio wing ex-farm pricestEth.S 230-25 for haricot beans; Eth. $ 120-1 30 for horse beans; Eth. $ 200-220 lor
lentils; Eth. $ 160-1 70 for chickpeas; and Eth. $ 1 45-! 60 for dry peas.
In general, pulses traded inside the country arc purchased ex-fa rar. at average prices about equal to those destined for foreign markets, forb same qualities. This applies especially to the Addis Ababa region, wr.e with the setting up of the Grains Corporation, prices appear to be more stable than in the past.
On the domestic market however there exists a greater diversify 
types and therefore of prices. In general, more ordinary 
are         consumed         domestically         than         are         exported.         In         this         case prices are also considerably lower.
(1 ) For the purposes of this study, the per-capita con been estimated in gross terms and not in terms ° due to lack of exhaustive information on wastes, * uses
• arI-l
uSC( parti)SUPPLY AND DEMAND OF PULSES. J 967 AND PROJECTIONS FOR 1975. 1985 AND 1995
(thouiand of metric tons, dry weight)
Description
I    J 967
"T
1         1975
1
Rates of
Growth
' 1967-75
1985
|       Rates of Growth
1975-85
1995
Rates of
Growth
1985-95
Rates of j Growth 1
1967-95 |
Phoduction
Imports
Exports
Domestic demand
Per caput consumption
(kg/year)
Population (thousands)
585
••
70
515
21. 9
23.500
650
23. 2
27, 970
2.95
0. 75
2.2
860
24. 7
34.770
2. 8
o; s
2. 2
1. 130
26. 1
43, 220
2. 75
o; 55
2. 2
2. 8
o. 6
2.2
[
Notes: Assumed per caput GDP rates of growth: 2.5 from 1967 to 1975; 2. 6 from 1975 to I 985;and 2. 7 from 1985 to 1995.
Assumed income elasticity: 0. 3 (semi-logarithmic function).
Projections of production and foreign trade have not been estimated in this preliminary research.
Source: Italcnnsult estimates and elaborations.- 44
The consuption o£
production is attaxne 1   500 tons/year.
In the case
an  ex-farm price price to be l
output in the
bv the population based on the area when fu» '40, 000 inhabitants) has been estimated a. «,
. ct /^rea does not exceed the area s consult /lonhasbecn assumed, corresponding to
---      of      Eth.     S     43     /      arabie     quality     imported     from     Addis     Ah paid for beans of comp- 45 -
A. 7 FRUITS
G ENERAL
According to official statistics fruit production in Ethiopia is reported to have reached 72, 000 tons in 1967, with an annual -ate of increase of almost 5% since 1961. Moreover, two-
thirds of the production is now accounted for by bananas whose cultivation, especially in Ethiopia, has extended rapidly during the last few years. The other fruits are paupaws, citrus crops, melons, various kinds of tropical crops, beside small quantities of table grapes, strawberries and other temperate climate fruit widely grown in Eritrea.
Imports amounted to more than 6, 000 tons (weight expressed in terms of fresh fruit) in 1967, including fresh, dried and variously conserved fruits (dates, bananas, oranges, apples, raisins, jams and juices).
Exports - more than 20, 000 tons in 1967 - consisted mostly of bananas (17,500 tons), the rest being citrus crops ^mainly lemons) and various other kinds of fruit.
Domestic demand projections have been estimated assuming 
u
income-elasticity of 0. 7 and according to a semi-logarithmic
n                        presupposes a drop in this coefficient, without
CaChln8’ how*ver,  a saturation  point.  A per capita c on  sump-
CQ n °4            ® kg is thus obtained in 1975 and one of 3.4 in 1995,
*nd .C^° ^'
n
n 8 to levels of domestic demand of about 80,000 
too 9* °°° tons respectively (Table A-17).These quantities are
a.
tea
taking also into account supply from the alternative
crop8
e ’ Eritrea) , 
to consider fruit as one of the
to be produced on a large scale in the Project Area.SUPPLY AND DEMAND OF FRUITS, 1967 AND PROJECTIONS FOR 1975, 1985 AND 1995 
(metric tons, fresh weight)
Description
1967
(adjusted^
1975
Rates OJ
Growth
1967-75
f
1985
Rates o
Growth
1975-85
f
1995
Rates ol
Growth
1985-95
[■ Rates of Growth
1967-95
Production
Imports
- fresh and dried
nuts
- dried fruits (fresh
equivalent)
- preserved and pro- cessed fruits (do. )
Exports (fresh equiv.) Domestic demand
1     Per caput consump-
\      ti.on(l) (kg/year)
Population (thousands)
74, 000 6,300
(1,320) (2, 500)
(2,480) 20,300
60,000
2. 55
23,500
79,715
2. 85
27, 970
3. 6 
1. 4
2. 2
1 10,570
3. 18
34,770
•
3. 3        1 2.2 p
49, HO 1
3. 45
13,220 /
,0
0. 8 /
2.2 p
3.3
. 1  1.1 -J )
(1)               For th* purpo»« of the prttanl preliminary raaaarch and due to Lha lack of
batwata hamatinf and inMuinpiton. «.«!<-ulailon of nat output for food «•■«. con»«r«lon factor* Into fra*h
• •jnlwalani. om- 5. TK« pat caput cuatomptlan la awpraaaad In raw Tarena,
dare (loaa and waata
pac caput CiDT* aaraa nf grawth / » from I af>7 lu I MIS. / tf/iHii 1975 ♦* I 9®4, and / 7 frnm
>•••* Mt
*»w» o t 4a«mt 1~a*a !•>»«*••* IuhlHub)EXPORT MARKET: BANANAS AND CITRUS FRUIT THE
farm price of bananas to enable them to be competitive ThC C* rts in the countries bordering the Red Sea and Persian 
a5  c* P°Kth $l5q/ton during virtually all the months of the year, 
^he^ble’ to export bananas to Europe, via the Suez Canal, it
T ould be necessary to produce them at about Eth.$ 120-130/ton. Greeting the crops towards the quality in demand (which would als enable losses to be reduced) and concentrating the consign ments into the winter months (during the summer the demand f or bananas drops because supplies of many other kinds
of fruit reach the market).
As a result of the closing of the Suez Canal, exports of bananas to European countries, which could be effected at competitive prices, has practically dried up. At present Saudi Arabia is almost the only importing country. This situation, added to the fact that the type of banana grown in Ethiopia is hard to sell in most developed countries, represents a serious obstacle to further cultivation.
Even in the hypothesis of the Canal be ng 
r r’ana.l being open, however, expor
anUaV changc
 in
prospects are uncertain. "Io bring a ou 
prices to about
the     varieties     grown     and     to     bring 
down 
ex 
Eth.$U0430 per ton seems to constitute a
tica Hy     insurmoun-
$ 100).
table obstacle (cultivation costs P    ton ar
CT                5
cxp^r       ^°
irnenta     n
Moreover the necessary varieties require
5 ituation of world
Finally, the marketing of bananas in the
one o   t  e
f^
over-production        requires        the        presence        in        vnCertain        condition, targe international, banana companies- a very
The Exportation 
auturnn month ** °* °ra,nSes to European countries in the summcr-
* count of th^^
c
3
even before the closing of the Canal
s an
l  ds and f ° growing competition especially from the Canary froni South Africa.
M0re  v
* Ppea
r t
° er, j
o be ln CornP rison with the Awash area, Eritrea would 
a
e
r ‘  ?rowih ' 
w h°le in a more advantageous position for
4 nurnber°f °rangea during the summer months (exploitation 
P ’iCe is a
rn .° Cllrnatic strips). In this region, the ex-farm
n  iOOEtK^ton in the months of greatest production- 48 -
(November-March)       and       up       to       300F.tK$/ton       durinK           th 
months (Julv-Novembpr'i a* _
months (July-November). At the present time these price6 make it possible to export to countries bordering the Red SSeeaa a and P  nd Peerrssiiaan Gn Gul ulff..
The prospects of exporting mandarines or tan erin 
—*             uuring the 3ummtr
E
appear to be more favourable. Ex-farm prices a ’ *°Uld 200Eth4/ton for October and December and up to Eth J’ * 
0
I
between June and October. At present exports are dire tT 
as is the case for bananasand oranges, to the nearest C
but it is felt that an ex-farm price of between 250 and^SoS* would enable the fruit to be sold in a number of European $ countries, with shipment via the Suez Canal. Large quantities
of first quality mandarines could be sold in this way at CIT which would be competitive with those obtained by other coai-.r. (the Canary Islands, Italy, Spain and Israel). On the contrary, shipments via air would not be profitable, even in the event at air rates being reduced.
The prospects of extending the sale of lemons and grapefruits abroad appears less likely. In £hct the first European markes are already supplied throughout practically the wholei year, the consumption o£ the second is still relatively .mall .11
A. 7.
3 CONCLUSIONS
of citrus fruit
any      case,      it      has         not      vet In 
e n ascertained whether the proito
There is th L e Mediterranean and Sout Midh  dleAAfwraishc «" a pr •  o4u:«> dead season 
crnnc * / re Ore> ^sufficient evidence for introducing 
ma *  °
n
1 e CroPPin8 patterns for the Project Area, while
C  ing prospects for large productions is quite uncertain
■
(1) The demand for grapefruit, especially in   ^ j'b 
f rr*
er
juice, appears to be rapidly increasing * . g jt ea *•’
n
rr
The ex-farm price of this citrus crop 1S' 
120Eth4/ton in the months of greatest pr
S** ';
1
Swi x
. eri*oC
signments of lemons were sola in Italy 1967.- 49 -
A. 8 VEGETABLES
. . general
A»'
According  to  available data,about 330,000  tons of vegetables were produced  in  Ethiopia in  1967/1968  (excluding  spices ' 
"gesho",       "musa       ensete"       roots,       potatoes,       yams       and       other starchy     roots).     Between     1961     and     1967,     this     production     de veloped    at    an    annual    rate    of    increase    of    2.    5    to    2    8%    im     or. h.«     been     rtmuM     at     slightly     les,     than     3,000     tons     include,     ’ processed and canned vegetables, in term, of Iresh equivalent.
During the last few years,the exports of surpluses have increas ed amounting, in 1967, to 11-12,000 tons, despite the diffi culties arising from the closing of the Suez Canal. Shipments to Europe of fresh vegetables during the winter months, as already noted for several fruits (bananas, citrus crops) now encounter greater difficulties. However, some exporters - especially Eritreans - are in a position to sell several types
g°’ fresh crops in the major consumption centres of Europe, sing air transport and refrigerated ships.
19 67
Italrnore than 4,000 tons of sweet peppers (almost all to tons f850 tOUS °f chiUies (to Aden, Italy. USA, etc.), 4,750 a nd oth°^Cr Ve^ ^ ^es (French Somalia, Saudi Arabia, Italy 
ea
Almost all e j.
sreen
Kufopean countries), 670 tons of frozen vegetables
°  audi Arabia) and 550-600 tons of garlic, onions,
s
.
Wer*     P<*as       and       tornatoes     (Europe,     Red     Sea     countries     ar.d     Aden) re  exported.
The major export markets o 
f  vthiopian
 *'
Sau
nteTdi / A. &ra Abide*. n)- i As
ope
Europe and the Middle East (m ^ g deman<^
e
the un-
complete analysis of winter vege
tactically impossible. under pre^
certain effects of marketing fro 
Afresh vegetables; the experien^® £re9h veRe'.ab
ie
honS , due to
on th toO recent F market.
t d StateS
indications on the future size ° ubVe in the n in a si« 
■•xperience is longer and more vegetabies *'Micrc it has been shown that fre- 50 -
able share of the market at premium prices - but it, app;lCi bility to European conditions is questionable, due to the » lower per capita income and substantially different food i . 
come elasticities.
n
At present, Ethiopia exports some 12, 000 tons of fresh • 
tables to Europe all in winter. The quantity of potential'*' 
ports is substantially larger - according to local traders-by 
is affected by the closing of the Suez Canal, which has limited 
exports to vegetables that can be airlifted. If the Canal were
opened, in the near future, it can be estimated - on the basis
of interviews with Ethiopian traders and exporters - that
Europe could absorb by 1975 some 30,000 tons of fTesh pro
duce. Thereafter, and in the absence of reliable demand atd 
supply projections, only reasonable hypotheses can be advar.o-. 
If demand rose at 4% per annun - a moderate rate given the
hieh rank fresh produce has in the European Con.umer tafpi.. 
and if Ethiopia can maintain its 1975 share, total expend 
fresh produce could reach some 70.000 tons, by 1995.
Wint er vegetables can also be marketed in Ethiopia. Here, 
uncertainties on the share of the market that could be occupied 
by output from Melka Sadi-Amibara are basically those relat
ing to alternative supply areas - a task reserved for the seccsi
phase of the study. In any case, the demand for fresh 
be projected as follows.
During  1967/68  the dome stic demand  for vegetables was esti mated  at 320,  000  tons,corresponding  to  about 300,  000  tons i* net terms,  equivalent to  slightly  less than  13  kg/year per ca pita (of which about half in the winter months).
F or
and 
1i 975 a 7- nd 1 995        3      kg   tjle         respectiv,]6/'^?
* 
c on.umption 
oasis of an income-elasuc:*)’
will      be      14.2      kg 
of 0. 6 te
function 
nding to de domestic T 
of semi In crease during the period, according tc »
"”' *”>'■
demand would rise from 420, 000 tons to
Th ' correspond.^ !.«><
of gross
P790,000 t rojections on , s =>
ow   n
* g during the whole period covered by «e annUa‘ ri'e of increase of 3. 
I™'''
P ion would remain at about half such lev*’-\.'      J±T TA I • I            I        At;u
T I « »tJ .*.
(adjusted)
Raters     id
Growth Il 96 7- 75
[Rates of 1 Growth
1975-85
1995
Rate* w of
Growth
1985-95
Rater* of
Growth
1967-95
Production
Imports (2)
Exports
Domestic demand
- in raw terms
- net of wastes
Fter caput net consump
tion (kg/year)
Population (thousands)
320 303
12. 9
23, 500
420 397
14. 2 27, 970
580 549
15. 8
34, 770
3. 3 3. 3 1. 1
2. 2
i
3. 3
3. 3
'.n i
l. 1 2:2 I.
790
748
17. 3
43, 220
3. 1
3. 1
0. 9
2. 2
(1)      Excluded: potatoes and other starchy roots. Onions, garlic, sweet peppers, chillies are included. (2)      Including processed vegetables (fresh equivalent).
Notes:- Assumed per caput GDP rates of growth: 2. 5 from 1967 to 1975; 2. 6 from 1975 to 1 985;and 2. 7 from 1985 to 1995,
-  Assumed income-elasticity: 0. 6 (semi-logarithmic function).
-   Projections of production and foreign trade have not been estimated in this preliminary researc h. Source: Italconsult estimateB and elaborations.- 52 -
Prices for the lo tely the same as ex-farm basis.
cal        market        have those for export
be «n found to be
A. 8. 2 SWEET PEPPERS
At present the best organized exports are eff 'T’T'" which, as for other fruit. and v.g'.UM latively better off with regard ,o mean,
E ™-»>
S
Shipments     are     sent     both     by     air,     for     the     European     m.     |> from November to April, and by refrigerator .hip 11 
£
ports during the winter months.de.pite the sharp1 
air-transport costs (from 60 to 80 Ethiopian cents pe,k!.,, r
entail fairly high quantities and there is a tendency for ties/
to increase.
F rom investigationsmade, it is considered that the Europe^
markets are in a position to absorb, during the 5-6mon*Ju 
straddling the winter, more than 10,000 tons of sweet peopen 
at wholesale prices of between Eth.$ 1,000 - 2, 000/ton, 
ing to the time of sale and to the quantity and degree of .rei-
ness of the product. The average price paid to the groweru 
this period is about 250 Eth. $/ton.
The       reopening       of       the       Canal       will       certainly       help       to* 
the present export flow towards European cour. . 
shipment       will       still       continue       to       be       widely       used, the rates should be reduced (2).
Future prices cannot be forecasted earlier. An assumption of constan p reasonably conservative.
’
sons ind»cl1e
____
(1)        Some gr
ships and refrigerated s 0   tores
owing-an^^?°7 7es atpo
C          rts °£
. have their .
. 
j ta^tl3,!'
.
Sea and Middle East. 
(2)        Transport losses y »
by air the percentage xs 2-3 A
a
a
 are estima eT
- 53 -
e ggplaNTS
A 5-5
are in great demand in winter in Europe, whose main ^^arVets could absorb, according to broad estimates, more
tTiar 4 000 tons. Air shipment is the most suitable, not least because the losses are very small, whereas by sea they can amount to more than 25%. At present the ex-farm price, from December to May, ranges between 90 and 120 Eth. $/ton. 
corresponding wholesale prices in Europe vary between T MOO and M00 Eth. (/ton.
A. 3 . 4 GREEN BEANS
Shipments to Europe during the winter are at present made by air. This means would also continue to be used even after the reopening of the Canal, since the product would be very badly damaged if embarked on ship. The absorptive capacity of the European markets is small for this vegetable, on account of
r  greatly increased price of the fresh product in comparison 
with that quoted for current canned beans. Paris, Milan and rankfurt are practically the only markets that accept imports, 
to G ex’farrn price (Eritrea) is 230-250Eth, $^on, corresponding P^ropean wholesale price of not less than 1,400-1,500 
*-th. $/ton.
5
fresh green peas
Thei
gr^en
Europe is more doubtfull than that of
p
eas  eanB» not least because to the competition from canned 
Market'181 ad<ied that of fresh peas placed on the European Italy * even during some of the winter by growers in Southern 815^ Or the time being exports - by air - are of negligible- 54 -
In Eritrea ex-farm prices arp 
thewint
of the year. 
"              monlhs
and
j
ab <"“              >8o-Mk 
“°->/tOn during lhe * r*
The       prospects       of       a       reasonable       increase       in       i
kets are thus uncertain. 
8alcs on th ,
eem
A. 8. 6 TOMATOES
Exports to Europe are virtually non-existent. Those bv ai determine selling prices to the consumer that are absolute-t out of proportion with those of canned -peeled" tomatoes, i the result that the few sales made interest very small quanti- ties. Tomatoes sent by sea arrive at their de situation cowl- derably altered by "freezing" (this also occurs if they are seat through the Suez Canal).
Hence the present few sales are made at short distances ^ir. the countries bordering the Red Sea), apart from those on the home market, where absorptive capacity could increase pro vided prices were reduced. Another alternative to boost supplies has been indicated with the creation of a canning factory. The profitability of this, however, must be looked upon with many reservations.
Present ex-farm prices range widely during the riods. from 70 to l3 0Eth.$^on in Eritrea, from
Eth4»Aon»i  °
n
ther regions.
A. 8. 7
ONIONS
Prospects of exporting onions nil) are uncertain. Exports
nt a)t^c5*
be
ng i5 .uffi^. ,
October         to         May,         by         sea         (air-c°         *         North-Ce»"«‘
mainly to the United Kingdom and to 
where
the
demand 
-nd. 
ing  fm^ ,
to  me„a«;qo.,..v 
price of not more than 140 demand (white).- 55 -
- VEGETABLE MARROWS (COURGETTES)
,U? 0WARF
Itis  expected that limited quantities of small "eour^tt. 
obtained at an ex-farm price of about 100 EthtK^ v ' * 
in winter on European markets if shipped by aiy ,1™" ** 
..uUU damaged by refrigeration, with eon.iti.Llu^^),
A  j.9 CHILLIES OR "BERBERE"
At present the chillies grown on the plateaus, with a rainfall regime, are exported to many countries in the form of dry powder (canned) or else in their natural state, L 0% aeml*<lv\\ A possible production of chillies or "berbero11 In Irrigated areas should be effected at a price of not morn than SOO bearing in mind that generally the Eritrean exporters buy Irom the growers in the plateaus at an average price of 400 450  Etk $/ton.
Inclusions
b Y I995, th t -
P oduce, b n.
r
014 ' *ncrca>« In quhnlltlew (Inina oiled of fresh 
levels would dorne8tlcal*y *nd abroad, above Ihe 1967/ftH
ab ’ence of nt*
or< l*r of 300,000 Inna, ft ven bl llu*
alt «rnatiVeln Orrnal*On of data arid alft horallnoa rnUllhy Io 
'be Helfer* Bu?Ply, it would appear rtoiaoiiiililt* Io mwruiiih llifil
•bare of gT * '-^uibara area could provide « hiiIihIhhUhI
Port
increa«^* ftobatanllal iiiiCMl'lfllfllio oh Him uh •
’^•tig^^^1 rernain, however, nod l.lieaa ■ hohoI be aaally b<
r*p ^. 
r
pixrpowea of thia aludy, vejieiahlHa bo*
• 'Vented by sweet peppera and wuKphinlaA. 9 LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS
BEEF
Because of the health-nutrition situation of the animals in Ethiopia the death-rate is high. This circumstance, added 
to the need to use the animals for agricultural work and 
other unfavourable factors, is reflected in a small rate of increase in total numbers (about 1% per year over the last ten years, and-, 0. 5% during the last five-year period).
From these factors derive the need to find methods aiming 
at giving priority to the qualitative improvement of the species, and at providing greater meat supply for the home and foreign market as well as greater supplies of milk, which at present are not sufficient to meet the demand.
In the last few years the total demand for meat has in fact risen not least because exports - above all of canned meat -
undergoing favourable development (116-1 30, 000 head 
hlau
S tered besides 5-10, 000 head of cattle and 60-100 >
h
kousand head of sheep or pigs sold on the hoof) (1).
canned 
c °untr' Three GS 20, 000°h ^
present some ten or so firms which export
( and a small quantity of frozen meat) to imports from Ethiopia are not forbidden.
l  eSe ^ave a slaughtering capacity of more than 
by the a t ayear‘ According to the programs approved ex ports Ut.^Or^ies» it is expected that for 1972 the present limit a °* canneci and frozen meat will be doubled. More Win  PP^ars the exportation of live animals, which 
a
c °unt rn°bt exclusively consist of sheep and goats for Fles bordering the Red Sea.The passage of the animals from the stockraiser to the slaughter-house and to the consumer takes different forma from region to region, while prices are likewise differen-
■ t d(l) The lack of an organized market as such prevents tia iiable and unambiguous analyses. The ’'Livestock and Meat Board", recently .et »P « Addle Ababa, ba. tb.u.k 
“ controlling and regulating th,. market.
It is calculated that each year 2. 3-2.4 million head of cattle are slaughtered. Bearing in mind exports (in the form of frozen or canned meat), it has been estimated that the present per capita consumption of beef is 13-14 kg per year in terms of carcass-weight (average weight 110 kg). Per capita consumption of all types of meal is estimated at about 27 kg, a level which is among the highest encount ered in developing countries.
(1) Asa
quoted in ...
-    prices p<
ddis Ababa market (in Eth.$/kg);
id to the stock raiser by the central slaughter industrial slaughter-houses or on the
house or by
free market: from
0. 32 to 050 liveweight
to
s at the central slaughter-house,
-    selling price
retailers 0.50-0.80
retail selling prices applied by Supermarkets: 0. 80-2. 00 (meat obtained from the central sUught^ house) according to the quality and cut chosen retail selling prices applied by other local
0. 60-1.20 (meat obtained from the centra! 5 au house or on the free market)
retail selling prices applied by the 0. 50-0. 60 (meat obtained from the - house or on the free market) by- 59 -
ing the income-elasticity calculated by FAO (1),
A- 7 and adrrdttin8 that this coe££icient tends to decrease
medium-long term (thus using a semi-logarithmic fanction) in 1985 per capita consumption of meat would not
be less than 34 kg. This would presuppose an increase in the ‘apply    meat for the domestic market and an annual rate
of increase of about 3. 5%. This rate would not be easy to reach without an adequate program for the reinforcement
of the livestock population.
Future total consumption of meat in the irrigation area - on the basis of a total population of 60, 000 inhabitants - has been estimated, priliminarily and as a guide, at about 1,600 
tons (^assuming a per capita consumption of 27 kg),half of which is assumed to be meat, according to the present distri bution of domestic consumption by types.
lor the purpose of calculating the value of production in the Project Area, an average price of Eth. $ 0. 35-0. 50/kg, 
liveweight has been taken, calculated from a price of Eth. $
of
• 40-0.50/kg liveweight, at the central abattoir in Addis Ababa. milk
Is
m E Preci3e information on the overall production of and            ^^°pia. On the basis of the number of milking cows total pr j . Uaxt Production - about 1.25 litres/day -
this must b<.Ct'On
estimated at 1.4 million tons. To
milk.  o
v
added    about    140    thousand    tons    of    sheep's    and    goats’
at present P °d.uction would thus be about 1,540, 000 tons
r
(1) A —----------------------------------- -
u^^ral commodities - Projections for 1975 and- 60 -
4
Including imports (powdered milk, condensed milk 
milk, butter, ghee and cheeses) expressed in fresh 
valent, a total domestic consumption of more than l"^ ’
tons is obtained and an annual per capita gross consu 
of 68 kg of milk for all uses (1).
The absolute majority of the milk produced is consumed by the farmers. Marketing, as for the other agricultural prodwti occurs almost exclusively in the zones centred on Addis Aha and Asmara and, to a lesser extent, in the non-rural popuj. tion of other minor centres. In the two cities named above, the milk is delivered to the respective depots for sterihutco and pasteurization.
On the Addis Ababa market th» r. 0.30 Eth. $ per litre and th’ depots at 0 
/ a rme rs
paid about 0.Z5-
P                    .50 Eth. $ (losses and waste account for about 15*,
1S S°ld t0 the collec'^
The pasteurization milk is sold in 1 
half-litre bottles, for a pa * -
0. 5 0 Eth. $ (bottle to be returned) and thus at Eth. S I per litre, a price which is undoubtedly high if referred to the b» incomes of the country.
Milk requirements for the future population of the irrig^i-- area have been estimated at 3. 200 tons on the b«isi-
per capita consumption of 53-54 litre s/y ear. Should i production not be in a position to meet c°nSU™^L» «<! obtained from the "collecting dcPotS
at 0 .50-0.55
transported to the Area c°uld
Eth. $/litre, giving nse to a loc
price, which
necessarv tn (l)  For the purp s^~^r~
a. nd gheOe
PTeSent studY it has not been
.,. educt the milk processed into budet
or that IIC j rSSl ICd in the food lists among tats and
ing to PA/n J or leedln8 livestock, or the wastes. ^cc:'
t „         documents> net consumption of milk as > s u  > including cheeses, would amount to 54 k&
• 965 in Ethiopia.- 61 -
b  competitive to that of imported milk, of 0. 37 Eth. $/litre .
EGGS
Production is estimated at 1.5 billion eggs, equivalent to 
76,000 tons. Two firms at present see to collecting and processing (conservation and/or processing into liquid 
or powdered form) for exports mainly towards the countries of the Red Sea and Middle East.
The price paid by the processing industries to the farms is 3. 0 to 3. 5 cents per egg of average weight (about Z5 gr ). The price paid by the trading firms is 3.5 to 5. 0 cents per egg selected for direct consumption and retailed at 7-10 cents. Poultry farms sell very good quality eggs for 10 cents. In local trade, eggs, generally small ones, are sold at prices that range from 5 to 1 0 cents.
Lt is expected that the progressive demand (present per capita consump 
1.5 «, kg/y.a.) - due al.o 
P
;nrr ase in domestic eStirnated at
nmPnt of market-
export,
ing    -    may    bring    about    an    increase    in    price,    P in a difficult position.
*lhe requirement for eggs of the future popul irrigation area has been estimated at 160-17
*- 63 -
co
A. 1 0 sugar CANE
modern sugar estates at Wonji and Metahara owned by the reScn l  ^° with Dutch capital - sugar production is already 
>theP
iLV’A nttomcct almost the entire domestic demand (l).
D;ringd>e 1966/1967 crop season domestic production of cane amounted to 850. 000 tons (average annual production during 1952/1957 was 140,000 tw»). with an output of more than 80, 000 tons of crystallized sugar.
P*r capiu consumption has increased sharply over the last few years
a?±ough it still remains at a rather low level; it was reported to have besr. 3.2 kg in 1967. Lt is to be noted that, when sugar was not produced in tie country and imports were kept low, large amounts of honey were consumed in its place (in fact, large amounts of honey are still eaten in 
rural areas).
the H.V.A.. sugar nuotfe be able to 
present estates in 
the
b.rnam mil reach. accordmgW *n5 000 ton. 
•-.awticity coefficient 1.2, logarit m A.7,.5 v  pe , capita, It ts to *>« 
* o a medium hypo 
bests
t  domestic p * d te„ to be
ia
e
imply protected and that the prices . those likely to Visible exports would be much lower
h: the present producers.
study, the crop has not been analyst
t^at present thinking among sugar cane
°dtivation regionally, avoiding further C
v dley;
h|  cane cultivation and sugar milling 
specialized knowledge, which ca lQ pia outside the present producers. 
ca nc
nlra
tion in thc A*a
8
 is to diversify 
i
. ding exp "
e
ta o
obtained today in u ing domestic
\            Prta ”'OTe importantly, it is doubtful whether when world
\
\ \
>*CeasUUTtOn^n °n ml SUuc6arh l i8 aown eceorn toThaY^n t C Pher°3 c^8oof production in Bt * ** expected to remain at such leve s.
-------n--1%--7---s---  ?
■      *  ng^^Ts ol various kinds amounted to
80°
tons. ANNEX B LIVESTOCK DATATable B-l
Calves (males)Table B-2
ofTH£ various CATEGORIES OF ANIMALS EXPRESSED IN f.u.Q)
1973-1977) 1978-1981
1982-1985) 1986-1990
xnitnals
F. U.
F. U.
F.U.
F.U.
1991 —
F.U.
2, 220
1,250
2,220
2,220
2,220
2,220
1. 380
1,520
1,680
1,760
.   M   ye> ’
r
of     aRC
1,270
1,130
1,270
1,130
1,270
1,130
1,270
1, 130
1,270
1, 130
.      year*      o(        agC
. l-z y^r9 o( age
Ci’.tei (females)
•g.l years of age)
Steer*
.   1-3  year!  of  Age
- 1-2 years of age
Calvei (males)
(fl-l years of age)
h) F. V. *Feed Unit®.
1,390
1,170
1,390
1,170
1,390
1,170
1,390
1,170
—-y
730                    730
730                  730
/
c
4 c-
/
?CC
' WK.
1,390
1,170
730      1
r>
K
-<r\        -
"Table B-3
—Ft .QiENTS OF CONVERSION OF THE VARIOUS CAT EGOR1ES OF ANIMALS INTO ANIMAL
UNITS (1), IN THE VARIOUS PERIODS
Ani m^l b
1973-1977 |1978-1981
1986-1990 i
Ml
Cowj
1.78
I. 00
1.61
I. 00
1982-1985
1. 46
I. 00
1. 32
I. 00
1991
1.26
I. 00
• 3-4 year* ol age
• 1-3 year* ot a^e
1. 02
0. 92
0. 84
0. 76
0.72
- 1-1 year* ol a^e Calces females!
0, 90
0. 82
0.74
0. 67
0. 64
0. 70
0. 64
0. 58
0. 52
0. 50
1
Vl*l year* ol a^e )
fleets
1. 11
0. 94
1. 01
0. 85
0. 91
0. 77
0. 83
0. 70
0. 79
0. 66
9*1
1  ^r.Table B-4
fodder and by products
(PRODUCTION PER HA - FEED VALUES. COSTS OF F. U. )
Crops
Produc
tion
per ha
(qD
Feed
Value
per ql
(F.U. )
Feed
Value
per ha
(F. U.)
Market Cost per
F. U.
(1968)
Eth„$
Real
Cost per
F. U.
(1968)
Eth. $
Alfalfa
fresh
- hay
Sudan grass
•   fresh
•   hay
Groundnuts
(hay)
C °ncentrates
(Aver»ge values)
"'irC :
J
1. 300*
325*
15. 6
45. 7
1 3. 6
40. 8
20, 280 ±4^&52
/.
23,120 1 3. 872
0. 0349
0. 0339.
0. 0275
0. 0288
1.700
340
0. 0287
0. 0419
0. 0216
0. 0322
20
40
800
0. 008
0. 006
100
-
0. 007
0. 007
&
lINITIAL INVESTMENTS (I973/ )
1
Description
(Eth. $)
structures   with   annual   maintenance
costs of
Fences
Sheds
Troughs
Hay-loft
Manure pit
Iafermery
Dairy
MiscelUneoug
1,  131
22,880
2.  155
2, 000
688
538
900
1.291
349
591
883
891
°«ice and Store
^ncing
^  ’Upply
4t8r
18,080
1. 755
1,680
528
418
900
1.211
309
351
643
Pictures    . 
wit  a
77-Uh*nnual
33.406
26, 766
_■                 'rough,
lpping bath
778
301
618
221
^H£ture   .
sw
1.07g
---- i££±_£osts
head stock man
839
* *»ch
a
T ot i
a
"
 ------------- ——-
c
791
4. 086
788
5, 665
9.200
49. 350
711 3.766
.468
4. 945 9.200
41.750
Ste
e f8 °tnpOae<l of 4 bu
^eifern f
100 COWs
and all t
he calves produced, raising of
M 4;
6 mo",h' °»
Of 1 
2 Ula*100
and an
 the heifers produced; sale of calves
'
-----6 yn on ths on the range.1Table B-6
milk and MEAT production
feeding requirements, current costs
a«M"-
( ln BK $)
period of
ears
rg74-i9?8
• 168
210. 000
1979-1982
194
269,000
1983-1986
186
283,000
1987-1991
177
297,000
1992-1998
174
306, 000
1999-2003
174
306,000
. Mtr
, coocentratei
- Kf£i
, fodder V
:ai:entr«te« gf Labor
• M*rket
Xu]
Zi ^I3ilLC9 t, ^^iUSLCoit
Ual
3, 612
-
2, 751
-
5, 065
•
3,832
-
5, 886
-
4,415
-
1
6,534
4.807
783
11,204
8. 551
7,945
5,730
912
8.932
6.451
924
13. 922
10,474
19.742
11,790
6,572
900
4.908
900
10, 002
7,217
924
17,727
13,220
7.109
2.250
5,283
2,250
11,203
8,084
924
19,869
14.761
7,868
2,250
5,817
2,250
12.547
9. 053
924
22,039
16,311Tabic B-7
TO LESSER
EXTENT MEAT PRODUCTION
Mil* AND
„c feeding requirements, current costs aNincae units,
1974-1978
1983-1986
1987-1991
1992-1998
1999-2003
period of re*”
-- ------- - --------------------
211
264.000
1979-1982
230 317, 000
220 334,000
207 348, 000
203 357,000
-
357,000
Ofitt Req®"men‘
4.541 V
5. 991
6,947
. feeder tcncca**1^*
Meil
. fodder
. :oacen:ritei ' .»l of Ub-j?
• Market
Real
Z±W»r7 Coitg
^Uaagtcpn,
3,458
-
4, 533
-
5. 210
-
7. 057
5JJ92
960.
8, 720
6. 301
1,146
9,822
7, 107
1,164
7, 740 900
5.780 900
11, 000 7,952
1, 164
8,400 2.250
6,242
2,250
12,321
8.908
1,164
9,296 2.250
6.872
2,250
13.798
9.975
1,164
* Market
12. 558 "
15, 857>
17,933 "
20, 133 "
22,517^
24,958 "
Real
9.510-
11,980
13.481
15,067
' 16.784 '
X
18,529  ‘
\ji fV^STOCK . Mll.tC
TO £. f ..*4M 1-K l.’XTENT KiA.'VI I'HC5DU<_T1O li
fj
i Dcucripti
Meat
- in head
. bulls
. cowa
. heifers (4 years of age)
. calves (males)
. calves f femaki)
- in Eth$
. buJa
Period of yetrt
198.1 19H6
1 99/
1999-7.00^
4,032
2. 520
2, 520
2, 520
. COWS
heifers (4 years of age)
1,440
2, 700
3,060
3,060
calves (rrules and females/
3,587
3. 587
3, 587
3,587
Milk
- in ql
1,011
1. 140
1, 140
1, 140
- in Eth$
Manure
18. 796
28, 749
37,407
42,180
42, 180
42,180
- in EthS
Total (Eth$)
1.600
1.600
1.600
1,600
1,600
1,600
1.600
1. 600
1,600
14,587
20.057
18,327
27,496
39. 648
48,018
52, 827
53, 187
53, 187ORGANIZATION OF THE STOCKRAISING UNITS: SETTLERS AFA
LIVESTOCK UNITS. FEEDSTUFFS. FORAGE AREAS
Table 3-11
yv««(0ck
'.'nit*
No J
Cow*
(No. |
Total
F eedstuff
Requirement
(F. u;)
Estimated
Production
of Groundnut
Hay
(F. U. )
Production
of Forage
(F. U.)
Forage Crops
(h.)
Groundnuts (ha)
IL1
12.500
115                12.500
115
12.5
12.5
8,6
8.6
8.6
«.6
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.6
8.3
1)
tJ
♦.J
4. J
i. a
M
3.1
U
X!
U
5.8
5.1
3.1
12.500
I2A00
12.500
5. 600
B. 600
B. 600
8.600
5. 600
5,600
5. 60q
5. 600
«. 300
4 . 300
♦. 300
*. 300
4 .  300
3. »00
3 . 8oo
5.800
3. Boo
5. Boo
3. Boq
5. aoo
5. Boo
2,  625.  000
2.625.000
2. 625. 000
2.  625,  000
2,  625,  000
2- 305, 000
2.  305,  ooo
2,  305,  000
2.  305,000
>»585,OQo
h 585.ooo
l,5a 5,000
’•Ms,  ooo
>' 277, oqo
l » 277, ooo
ooo
’*277. oqo
I,2?7. ooo
*• 1‘3. 000
l » >63. 000
’* *‘3. 000
*• >‘3. 000
>• >‘*. 000
’• l&3, ooo
l6 3. 000
000
’•    >‘3.000
l,1 ‘3.      000
l#       >‘3.000
*• >‘3.000
384.000
384.000
184.  000
384.000
384.000
384,000
384.000
384,000
384,000
384.000
384.000
384,000
384.000
384,  000
384.000
2.241,ooo
2. 241, 000
2. 241. 000
2.241,000
2.241,000
3.921,1)00
>•921. 000
>•921, 000
’. 20|, 000
>•201, 000
’.201, 000
»
’. 201.000
>•201, 000
893, 000
a 93. 000
’.277,000
U 277. 000
>. 277. 000
’• ’63, 000
’• ’63. 000
163, 000
’• 16l, 000
’. ’6J. ooo
’• 163,000
’• ’63. 000
>. 163. 000
’. 163, OOq
’• ’63, 000
1. 163, 000
’• ’63,000
101
101
101
101
101 87 87 87 87 54
54
54
54
40
40
58
58
58
52
52
52
52
52
52
52
52
52
52
52
52
480
430
480
480
480
480
480
480
480
480
480
480
480
480 480Table B-12
0
R GA>n7.ATl°N
OF THE STOCKRAISING UNITS: SETTLERS AFAR EXPENDITURES. RETURNS, INVESTMENTS
(in Eth. $ )
Current Expenditure*
c
with
14ai9t«n*n ®
Market
Real
Milk
Beef
Return*
Manure
Total
511.875
5.707
130,601
162.060
20.000
6.7B7
179.075
130.601
162,060
68.375
20.000
fe. m
179,075
130,601
162,060
68,375
20, 000
10.537
179,075
130. 601
162,060
46,750
20,000
10,537
179,075
130,601
162,060
178.955
20,000
10.537
151.BOO
114,222
162,060
61.060
13.760
10,537
151.800
114.222
162,060
61.060
13,760
10.537
151,BOO
H4. 222
162,060
61.060
13.760
10.537
151.BOO
114.222
162.060
158. 390
13,760
10.537
108, 862
81,561
162,060
52,074
8.960
10.537
108.862
81.562
162,060
10.537
52.074
8.960
108.862
81.562
tO. 537
162.060
52,074
8. 960
108. RGi
81,561
'0,537
162.060
99.584
8.960
95.950
’0,537
72.470
162. 060
38.747
6.880
950
'0,537
72.470
38.747
6. 880
n
’0.537
lQa .916
82,083
38.747
6,880
*° . 916
a
'0.537
82. 083
162.060
38.747
6. 880
*>.757
5.787
‘.787
,0 ’.9l6
82.0H3
162, 060
57.377
6.880
lli > 056
86.007
162,060
34.379
6, 080
“ 3.056
l,J -056
86. 007
162.060
35,747
6.080
‘.7,7
5.787
5.787
86.007
35.747
6,080
” 3. 056
86,007
35.747
6,080
” 3- 056
86,007
35,747
6,080
5.787
5.787
* 13- 056
” 3.056
86,007
86. 007
162,060
162. 060
35.747
35,747
6,080
6.080
5.787
5.787
94.108
162. 060
35.747
6,080
94.log
162.060
35,747
6.080
94.108
35,747
6,080
U “.<82
‘^.482
94.10B
162,060
35.747
6, ORO
94,108
162, 060
35.747
6.080
Cow« and Eth. $ 15. 000 for the p»irchft«« of built.I1
ANNEX c CULTIVATION
COSTSI
4
b
H
!
>
O
6&
u
a
•o
v
OdX
(FlU *>
f/IT/VAtlON GO8F» • ••
c**' ..I uawour
To**'
Towl <-«••'
„( labour
Cu«l *»<
ToV»l CuUl**tkl,n
Coat"
ju<* chin* Hour*
29. 9 7
j rnpJ*' *"
n
U
29. **
pj^ghiag (29 ctn>
H^r rowing
Lulling
pie!* ditch**
Furro^nf
Manual eoering Irrigation
M „h.nicl »«<*■"»
i.tung op«‘tion Watchmen
„.rv..Hn« .nd B'‘"chiof
Hi HP 5'd
65 HFMrrPW 6 5 HP leveller
65 HPdHeh«r
65  HP
[urro*cr
65 HP
cu )tiva,ar
20. 10
48. 20
68. 09
15.00
with one plane
65 HP*ra”er 65 IIP
20. 10 48.20
91. 19
15.00
20. 66
11. 70
29. 91
JO. 00 223. I 1
14. 10 35. 40
47. 19
14. 26
2. 36
14. 10 20. 35
. ui*. Held trantp°rl folding. unloading, «•»
14. 10 35.40
70. 29
10. 18
14. 26
10. 90
2). 26
20. 35
254. 96
rc
p  p*ritlon »nd bagging Grading
TOTAL
?-"0 ’‘iqej.»>
ciKOi/^NC/r- C(/I.«VATI<JN COtf
Tol*X €••«
«( Labour . 
T„tel Cd
of
(huIR*’-*’
•r (h0ur«)
.-.vrv-' R* to a) (Mo>  *      e
TuM>l
vwCo*-.-1*
te tlUt* 2
CuVl’*rtQ* Co»»*
TolAl
Co«< u<
U„.kiU«d
Me chin*-
Skilled
Hour*
29. 29
/nwJ.nien'-
0. 69
0. 62
0. 62
29
9
0. 10
6<HP *‘*rrDW
tliHP »-d
65HP )evel‘
Jar
65HP       <«tch<r | 65HP ^rro'
65HP pl*ntor
8. U
/ }^rrowing I Revelling
' rl.ld <•«<*’■ i pjrro*^ ^
0. ft5
n
11.00 211. 00
S©”^
Irrigation
operation
W*tchrn«n. , • . r
bunchlnf
Stripplnl
Tr.n.porl io .«>*•«•
2. 44
39. 49
82. 06
15. 00
26. 34
72. 64
448. 00 16. 00
45.00
12. 05
39. 46
82. 06
15. 00
26. 34
72. 64
15. 56
361.4*
1.89 28. 91 56.86
plant
45.00
11.50
28.91
56.86 10. I®
18. 34 50. 24 11.76
28^21
65HP ^*llcrin—co——
fKIt*- *>
COT
TulAl
To«*
•total C — »
CulU'**tlon
u
Go»t *><
u (Ub« ».
Co«l—«
AI npo
A
wwr <h«*^
r»)
.M* chine*
>1.
Skilled
' UnaklH***
JI. 27. 4B
27.4*
r
Machine
Hour*
JO. 5 J
Fir./ pM** <” Cml.
22.15
j/4rro*i«k’
Fl eJd ditch-*
P urro*an<
M „h»icd .<,*>»»• liT „ ferUU«“ °
1.50
22. 75
21. 60
-4„. llrrf
I^pfemence Z25HP  5   d
I25HP 5'J 65HPh>rro*<'
65Hpditcher
65HPfu"<** 6 5HPpIfcntcr
1.50
2. 00
*
54.  00
’4. 00
48. 00
o
81. 35
65. 71
Resowing
Second
fortHI—'
completion
r .ciol,
W.edir.g   .nd   P».nt   ..<■*"•   '?
65 HP
65 HP colH*.
4.50
1.50
Addttion.1 irri«.l*°n. Thinning
P „t control Ueatin-nl- insecticides
V/atchm«n
Harvesting
Rc.idao removal Transport. stor*g«. etc.
384. 00
128. 00
224. 00
56. 00
-
96. 00
576. 00
152. 00
46, 00
61. 75
20. 59
44. 57
15. 00
89.  90
25. >0
21. 00 k 9 3. 80 Z 15. 00 89. 90
10. 1®
61. 06
17. *9
4. 63
TOTAL
VO  3l9»l,* t
I
t
i». fIcosts *4
(bovre)
UnekiU«d
(«:»»». a i
| Tol*» Coa« ' <
1 „< labour ' v.w- —
Twial C«*«* o( l-ahv«»
(R.aiBa'a’l
A
C^ktlvaU.o«* Goal*
^R.aV
0. 65
0. 57
I
Optra*—
•r»ui Co»«
>,(• chin**
30. 5 J 26. »5
s co    p
.  .4 w“'‘
(z>em>
Harro*^
Revelling
Field        d“ch° purrowinf
Nur aery
Peat control treatment Peaticidea and lnaecticidea
! Implement!
125 HP 5-d
125 HP 5-d
65 HP harrow,! 165 HP                 /
/
1. t* 1. 10 J. 50
I. SO
0. 70
0. 65
0. 62
0. 62
/leveller
65 HP ditcher I 65 HP                 /
(urrowcr
Knapsack
/
1. 50 60
0. 85 36. 45
9. 36
45. 06
45.24
76.26
100. 22 25. 08 15. 00
5. 67 49.21
T
Cul«l***lon
Co«»»
Raiaar^urkal"*1***
31.
27. 48
9. 05
9. 05
0. 10
6. IB 36. <5 20. 76
120. 00
45. 06
45. 24
76.26
100. 22 25. 08 15. 00 14. 48
49. 21 40. 00
50. 62
0. 78 25. 65
6. 36
31. 06 33.94
52. 26
69.42
17.48
10. 18 4. 07
34.21
3l. 18
27. 42
9. 05 <j. 05
0. 1°
8. U 25. 65
17.76
120. 00
31. 06
33.94
52. 26 69. 42
yranapl>nt
Irrigations Manual we«8<«I Harvesting Rasidue rimovil
Watchmen
65 HP trailed
Transport to curing plant
E“'""
Grading and tying
Loading oven
Unloading oven and conditioning
50. 62
19.97
19. 97
3.57
19. 97
19. 97
13.57
19. 97
19. 97
624. 58
783. 38
Bagging and loading TOTAL
cubic meter.l-MJ. »*•
•*
VAT — " Ct”rr’
ToW> Co#t
ut labour
Total
Cul*iv*Uo“
Co»l* .
Tout C»»*
©C l-B**^* _
t ul*1
Co»w .
Tttial
<W,.al
7
Co»« ot
>4a
33. I®
27. 41
/ Mae***'
I      and
Ho“ *
r
f Orf^ta
31.23
27. 48
0. 65
O. 87
7
^ctunaa
30. 5 3
26. «5
9. 05
P"p’-d /
mJ
9. 05
9. 05
0. 1°
/
1          , Harr<?»*lnd 7        | Levellinr
Held ditcher I             rurro*in«
Seed
Mwu»l .o^S Irrl«*tio° W
65 «p
h*rro**r
165  Hp
ievell*1
1*5 HP ditcher
65  HP f Urrow«r
1.50
1.50
I. 50
rer
tfli»«r »PP““uon (3'
120. 00
256. 00
894. 00
144. 00
16. 00
96. 00
304. 00
20. 10
48. 20
142. 90
26. 59 2. 50
15. 00 48. 8°
0. 10
fl. is
250. 00
20. 10
48. 20
142.21
26. 59
131.20 5. 54
25. 00 15. 00
Knap»*ck
Sprayer
0. ?8
14. 10
35. 40
98. 20
19. 39
I. 70
10. 18 33. 60
Ferdins
la.ectiddei
^’■tcbmen
™d «rBdiDi Carwn»
lz)
8. 11
250. 00
14. 10
35. 40
98. 20 19. 39
131.20 4. 74
25. 00
10. 18
33. 60
100. 00 806. 72
TOTAL
8-0UJTHUS rnUXT; CULTIVAT/UN CUSTS J*tat »L« (Jrttv SJ
(
Total Coat
Operations
Machines
end
Jmplenitn r*
Machine
Hour*
Total
Colt of
Machine*
, of Labour p.urJct Ha tea)
Total
Cultivation
Coat*
(Market Rate*)
Total Cool I
Of Labour k
(Real Mate*)
143. 55
143. 55
101. 95
Nursery
Deep ploughing (50 cm)
39. 58
1ZHP Z ip.
Picketing
85. 88
85. 88
61.88
61. 88
Excavation
85. 88
85. 86
61. 88
61. 88
FJanf setting
59. 94
59. 94
45. 14
45. 14
Irrigaticna
1.27
1. 27
Fertiliser. spreading
14. 46
14. 46
Fertilisers
130. 43
179. 08
94. 08
142. 68
Croat ploughing and hoeing (15 cm)
Post control treAtmcnta
45 HP
KnApaAck
5.43
Pcaricidc* (Roger 4 DDT)
J 7. 77
17. 77
Replanting (10%)
16.56
15. 96
W'Atchru co
22. 40
22. 40
15. 26
Pruning
10. 12
JO. 12
7. 32
Total Year 1
685. 32
470. 40
Irrigation*
59. 94
45. 14
Fertilixar*
14. 46
14. 46
Fertiliser spreading
J. 27
Cro** ploughing (|5 cm)
: 30. 48
179. 08
142. 68
Peat control tratmenE*
'Knapsack
Pesftelde*   (Rogor   ♦
DDT)
20. 77
20. 77
Watchmen
Pruning
Total Year 2-3
22. 40
22. 40
15. 26
15. 26
20. 24
20. 24
14. 64
14. 64
324, 99
259. 65Cm.«VATTOW
C»*lUvatlon
Co»«
r (hvur*)
Tot**
C«»t of
Tol*l Cort
at L-aboor
Skilled
■jnakUled
Hour*
Ippjcmcni*
jrHgaDo®*
prrHJixer*
Fcrtilite™ •pre*'*"*
Cro,. plouf^t (>S eml
Pe ,t control
P .,ticide»    (R0««r       ♦    W,T) Watchmen
pruning
Picking and packaging Total Y**r J
Total YearJ
Check floor irrig.Ho"
Fertiliser* spreading Croaa ploughing (15 cm) p««t control treatment! PeatRldaa
Watchmen
Pruning
picking and packaging Total Yeara 6-12
I—---------- ~~ “I To»*»-
Tot*1 Co** i cultivation
I o( Labour I CoBt«
C              RaU») LUaTKalFata«)
59.  94
41.22
3. 74
179. 06
6. 23
23.77
22. 40
49. 44
22. 40
49. 44
3.74
15. 26 36.24
2.54
48. 60
44
93. 96
4. 52
130.48
15. 13
44. 80
148. 32
37. 40
385.82
389. 56
93. 96 69. 16
4.52
179.08
29.57
142. 60
44. 60
148. 32
37. 40
749. 41
70.46
3. 07
94. 08
11. 33
30.52
108. 72
25. 40
45.14
41.22
2.54
142. 68
5.43 23. 77
15. 26 36. 24
2.54 M2. 28 314. 62
70. 46
69. »6
3. 07
142. 68
25. 77
142. 60 30.52
108.72 25. 40
618. 38
Table C- 9 (Cont. ) 2.< (Cont.) 3I
1
I
I
I
I
ITotal C«»*
CiUtl******
T»ul
Total Co«‘
ot       Lab-"1
iB,.alRata«)
r (kW*)
of Labour
ifc.alUataa3
KUcJMln- Houra
Imp*"™* '
1
Ua«kiBc4 I. 25
1. io
Ploughing (30 cm) Ploughing (20 cm)
Harrowing
L availing
furrowing
U5HP^ 125 HP 5’d 65 HP 6>rr-
65 HP
65 HP furro*
25
10
50
50
1.50
1.50
157
2 37
Co«» «<
Uactur.c*
30. 53 26.65
8. 43
0. 43 7. 33
1.50
24
*
0.63
0.62
0. 62
0. 85
32.75
42. 47
2 3.64
31.23 27. 46
9. 05
9.05
6. 16
32. 75
58. 33
42. 47
2 3. 84
0.76 24. 90
30. 62
16. 64
31.36
21.42
9.05
9.05 6.U
24.90 58. I*
30.62 16.64
III. 20
Mursory
Sood
TranepUftl
r«rtlllMtloa»
r*rtlMa«r«
Irrigations
16
4
40
10
144
111. 20
416
694
72
75.66
142. 69
76.66
142. 69
57.66
96. 2°
SI. 66
96. 20
7.6 5
13.63
11.23
24.91
41. 00
21. H
42.00
Manual • a»<1iaf
kuaptAcb
|5pray«r
u
10. !•
15. 00
15.00
153. 46
Past control Iraatmonl
56. 00
215.46
215. 46
PaaCI«t4aa. In»a<llrl4aa
U 40
64
16. 64
WauUr.M
||ar>aali«f
n. >4
2 3.64
16.64
144
kowlnf. Vaaihlnf, L*»rMag of rat
I4ua,
744 H
;
4
lo<)u4iag I«a«op6r| to ai^a/a. coM«ia»»• aM |*c»af)Ai
Jtfr. H
Q’-OANNEX D BENEFITS AND COSTSI\
tt zIiITabic D-
BENEFITS AND COSTS; SETTLEMENTS
(thousand Eth $)
Highlanders h* 3. 600
Bencfit*
Investment* and
Livestock Coat*
Ben Blit*
Investments
Market Rates
I. 66|
£.161
1.708
1976
(b)
498
916
1.899
2. 374
1.816
Market Rate*
R*al Rale*
(a)
(b)
-
-
88
88
sa
88
88
-105
-105
-105
-105
-105
1.489
1.489
1.489
1.489
1.489
I. 687
1.   687
1.687
1.   687
I.    687
1.   320
1.    320
1.   320
1.   320
1. 320
905
905
905
905
905
586
586
586
586
586
456
456
456
456
456
2. 124
2. 124
2.    124
2.    124
2. 124
2. 540
2. MO
2. 540
2. 540
2.    540
2,281
2.281
2. 28]
2.281
2. 28|
1.986
1.986
1.986
I. 986
1.986
1.212
2.227
6.478
7. 510
1.471
397
217
217
217
217
217
217
217
217
217
217
217
296
310
218
218
218
218
218
218
218
218
234
218
218
218
216
2 34
1.496
2,748
7. 198
7. 852
1.795
467
24 6
246
24 6
246
24 6
24 6
246
246
246
24 6
246
325
339
247
247
247
247
24 7
247
247
247
263
247
24 7
24 7
247
262
1
5. 0
4. 0
1  '••«mPMc n
.

< <

Summery

Summary: Melka Sadi-Amibara Irrigation Project

Melka Sadi-Amibara Proposed Irrigation Project - Inception Report Summary

Project Overview

The Melka Sadi-Amibara Irrigation Project is a major development initiative by the Imperial Ethiopian Government's Awash Valley Authority (AVA), with technical assistance from Italconsult. The inception report, dated December 1968, outlines plans for irrigated agriculture in the Awash Valley region.

Key Objectives: Develop approximately 20,000 hectares of irrigated land for agricultural production, combining commercial farms (75% of area) and settlement schemes (25% of area).

Main Components

1. Engineering Investigations

Hydrology: Extensive data collection on Awash River flows, including daily measurements at multiple stations
Climate: Dry sub-equatorial climate with two dry seasons (winter and early summer) and two rainy seasons
Pedology: Soil survey identifying three main geomorphological units with generally deep soils
Topography: Detailed mapping completed at various scales (1:1,000,000 to 1:5,000)

2. Irrigation Engineering

Proposed irrigation units of 45-50ha with water modules of 50 l/sec
Two main irrigation methods considered: submersion irrigation and furrow irrigation
Peak irrigation requirements estimated at 1.10 l/sec/ha in September
Drainage network needed to manage runoff and excess irrigation water
Road system planned with main north-south artery and secondary farm roads

3. Agriculture and Livestock

Ecologically Possible Crops:

Category	Crops
Summer Crops	Cotton, Maize, Tobacco, Groundnuts, Beans
Winter Crops	Tobacco, Groundnuts, Beans, Maize, Vegetables
Multiannual Crops	Alfalfa, Citrus, Banana, Sugar Cane

Proposed Cropping Patterns:

Several rotation systems proposed, with tobacco and cotton as primary cash crops. Key patterns include:

Two-season rotation (Cotton + Vegetables)
Four-season rotation (Tobacco-Tobacco-Maize-Fallow)
Six-season rotation combining tobacco and cotton

Livestock Development:

Plans for cattle raising (milk and meat production) integrated with crop production, using fodder crops and byproducts.

4. Settlement Program

The project includes settlement of 600 Afar families and highland farmers on 5,000 hectares:

Afar Settlement: 15-year phased approach to transition pastoralists to farmers
Highland Settlers: Farmers with agricultural experience
Land Allocation: 2ha family plots plus 500m² vegetable gardens

5. Economic Aspects

Tobacco shows highest economic returns among considered crops
Cotton also economically viable, though with lower returns than tobacco
Processing industries considered (cotton ginning, tobacco drying)
Detailed cultivation costs provided for all major crops

Key Challenges

Water availability during dry seasons may constrain irrigation
Need to transition Afar pastoralists to settled agriculture
Market uncertainties for some crops (vegetables, fruits)
Soil salinity and drainage issues in some areas

Next Steps

The report outlines an extensive program of future activities including:

Completion of hydrological and geological investigations
Detailed soil surveys and land classification
Agricultural and livestock experimentation
Social and economic studies
Final design of irrigation and drainage systems

Overall Vision: The Melka Sadi-Amibara project aims to transform the Awash Valley into a productive agricultural region through controlled irrigation, while addressing social and economic development needs of local populations.